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Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 25, 2016

President (National)

CNN/ORC – Clinton 49, Trump 44, Johnson 3, Stein 2

NBCNews/Survey Monkey –  Clinton 46, Trump 41, Johnson 7, Stein 3

Stress – Is this election stressing you?  Personally I am having a good ole time as it is proving many of my lowly  assumptions of humanity true.

President (States)

Monmouth (AZ) – Trump 46, Clinton 45, Johnson 4, Stein 1

TB&P Hendrix College (AR) – Trump 56, Clinton 33

Fox2/Mitchell (MI) – Clinton 49, Trump 41, Johnson 3, Stein 1

NYTimes/Siena (NC) – Clinton 46 Trump 39

Emerson College (ID) – Trump 52% Clinton 23% McMullin 10%, 9% Undecided, Johnson 4% and Someone else 1%


UMass (NH) – Ayotte 46 Hassan 43

Monmouth (AZ) – McCain 52, Kirkpatrick 42

TB&P Hendrix College (AR) – Boozman 52, Eldridge 34

Emerson College (ID) – Crapo 57% Sturgill 24%


RRH Elections 2016 General Election Preview Series, Part 3: Sunbelt Legislatures

Today we continue our tour of this year’s legislative elections with 10 more states across the south and southwest.

Part 1 (Friday, October 21): Northeast Legislatures
Part 2 (Monday, October 24): Midwest Legislatures
Part 3 (Tuesday, October 25): Sunbelt Legislatures
Part 4 (Wednesday, October 26): Western Legislatures
Part 5 (Thursday, October 27): Local Elections and Public Service Commissioners
Parts 6-7 (Monday, October 31 – Tuesday, November 1): House Races
Parts 8-9 (Wednesday, November 2 – Thursday, November 3): Governor and Row Officer Races
Part 10 (Friday, November 4): Senate Races

Today we will cover 19 chambers in 10 states: Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Why only 19? Well, the Texas Senate doesn’t have a single competitive election this year, and all seats are essentially certain to stay with their incumbent parties. In Yellow are states covered in this preview, white states will be covered in other parts of the series, light gray are states others will cover in the diaries, and black are states with no legislative elections this year.

There are four chambers that are competitive, three GOP-held (the Arizona Senate, Florida Senate, and New Mexico House) and one Dem-held (the New Mexico Senate). Plus there is one more chamber that is “theoretically competitive”, with enough competitive seats to change hands but where the minority party would need to win an implausible number of long-shot races, the GOP-held Florida House. However, I’d probably argue that three of the four competitive chambers in this region (all except the New Mexico House) are decided long-shots to flip control. The other significant story-lines in this region are Dems’ attempts to break the GOP supermajority in the NC legislature and a number of teachers attempting to make Dem gains in Oklahoma.

Flip over for the full previews!

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Political Roundup for October 25th, 2016


Clinton: She’s already essentially measuring the drapes, and showing plenty of signs that she has no intention of keeping her promises to the Sanderistas about corporate and trade policy.

Da Governator: Ahnuld has said that if he could, he would have run for President this year. I can’t say I’d have been unhappy if he did/could, because a man most famous for collapsing the shell of the CAGOP in on itself while sporting an atrocious favorability rating and a baby momma scandal would still probably be an above average candidate in our 2016 field. He’d at least have been funny to watch flame out.

Talk-Media: In one of the more amusing political articles I’ve read in a while, a bunch of GOP insiders are gearing up to pin the blame for Trump and the 2016 loss on the “Conservative Media Groups” like Hannity, Limbaugh, O’Reilly, etc. The reasoning is that these mean people have become so influential with America’s right-wing population that they have displaced the normal media party organs and have caused them to lose control of the party’s messaging, therefore leading to Trump beating all the GOP’s “reasonable” candidates. The funniest part is that they are (in classic “Summer of Trump” fashion) either expecting Trump’s likely November loss to somehow get all these voters back to listening to them so they don’t have to change a thing, or taking a more active approach and . . . criticizing them. Because the Jeb Bush strategy of calmly explaining to Trump voters how his candidacy is harming his chance at the family office the Conservative movement worked so well. Its also quite hilarious to see a bunch of GOP media men try to bust out a “the marketplace should punish failure” analogy without a hint of irony after losing the argument over the party’s future to Donald freaking Trump. Lee Atwater is probably rolling in his grave knowing that these chumps are his successors.

Trump: In a revelation that will come as a shock to people numbering in the high single-digits, the celebrity real estate mogul used to have coke-fueled risqué parties back when that was what every rich New Yorker did with all their 80’s money.


KY-Sen: Rand Paul’s campaign has been running low on funds, mostly because he spent the overwhelming majority of all the money he’s raised in his 6 years in the Senate on his aborted Presidential bid. This has allowed Jim Gray to out-raise him this year, and has started releasing polls showing him surprisingly competitive in the state.

MI-8: Obama has endorsed Suzanna Shkreli for congress. It’s kind of surprising move, given that Obama has been essentially invisible in office for the better part of a year now and the Democrats have a better chance of flipping about 50 other seats than this one, but I guess someone finally reminded Obama that Congress is supposed to still be important to running the country. Honest question—what Democrat running for Congress right now would people NOT expect Obama to endorse? By 2016 I’m think everyone just sort of assumes that to start with. Its not like Obama has a distinct ideological profile within the Democratic party.

PA-Sen: The last of the Pennsylvania Senate Debates was yesterday, and featured more of the usual—Toomey attacking McGinty for her dishonest ads, and McGinty attacking Toomey for waffling on who he plans to support for President.

State & Local:

FL-Hurricane: Approximately 108,000 more people registered in the court-ordered extra registration period following the devastating Hurricane Matthew.

IL-Ballot-Access: David Gill’s lawsuit about the vast disparity between requirements for signatures for Independent candidates to get on the ballot versus GOP/Dem ones is still mulling along in the courts.

NY-Gov: Richard Hanna, most famous for being the sort of “Moderate Republican” that tries to ensure the GOP loses his house seat after he retires, has apparently been approached by NY Republicans to recruit him to run for the Governor’s office in 2018. They think he’d be a great candidate in the overwhelmingly D New York state, but bemoan the fact that the party he’s spent the last 2 years trying to screw over might not want him as their candidate.

Nassau-Machine: Ed Mangano (R-County Executive) suddenly decided while under federal corruption charges, to retroactively accept a huge cost-of-living raise. Because at this point the jig is up and you might as well squeeze every penny you can out of the office before they haul you away in handcuffs. Speaking of which . . .

PA-AG: It’s about damn time.

Travis-County-Commissioner: This is a surprisingly effective ad for this local race. The nerd in me approves of this concept, and I’m honestly wondering if we’ll see copycats in the future.


Afternoon Polling Roundup for October 24, 2016

President (National)

ABC – Clinton 50, Trump 38, Johnson 5, Stein 2

IBD/TIPP – Clinton 41, Trump 41, Johnson 8, Stein 4

Rasmussen – Trump 43, Clinton 41, Johnson 5, Stein 3

President (States/Congressional Districts)

CBS/YouGov (Florida) – Clinton 46, Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 2

Fox 5 (Georgia) – Trump 50, Clinton 46, Johnson 3, Stein 2

MN-8 – Trump 47, Clinton 35


MN-8 –  Mills 45, Nolan 41

Fox 5 (Georgia-Senate) – Isakson 51, Barksdale 42

CBS/YouGov (Florida) – Rubio 44, Fratrick 42


RRH Elections 2016 General Election Preview Series, Part 2: Midwest Legislatures

Today is the next installment of our legislative preview series, covering 10 states across the Midwest. I will be skipping Minnesota and Michigan in this preview as those states have well-done diaries from OGGoldy and ConservativeFirst previewing their legislative races.

Part 1 (Friday, October 21): Northeast Legislatures
Part 2 (Monday, October 24): Midwest Legislatures
Part 3 (Tuesday, October 25): Sunbelt Legislatures
Part 4 (Wednesday, October 26): Western Legislatures
Part 5 (Thursday, October 27): Local Elections and Public Service Commissioners
Parts 6-7 (Monday, October 31 – Tuesday, November 1): House Races
Parts 8-9 (Wednesday, November 2 – Thursday, November 3): Governor and Row Officer Races
Part 10 (Friday, November 4): Senate Races

Today we will cover 19 chambers in 10 states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. In Yellow are states covered in this preview, white states will be covered in other parts of the series, light gray are states others will cover in the diaries, and black are states with no legislative elections this year.

The main competitive chambers in this series are in Iowa: the GOP-held Iowa House and Dem-held Iowa Senate. Two other states don’t have chambers in danger of flipping but have interesting dynamics – Kansas has the mishagoss of Moderate and Conservative Republicans feuding where moderates may form a coalition with the Dems after the election, while Illinois has a interesting storyline of Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) going all-in to break House Speaker Mike Madigan’s (D) veto-proof supermajority. Also, a big thanks to Son of the South for his help on the Indiana races!

Flip over for the full previews!

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Political Roundup For Monday, October 24, 2016

Good morning folks. Welcome to the week. Fifteen days until this is all over. Please check back at noon today for our next legislative preview installment, covering legislatures in the Midwest.

Also, we are beginning our Vermont Poll. It will be out this Friday!

Presidential News:

Trump: Trump actually said some positive things about down-ballot Republicans, urging his supporters to vote for Republicans in House and Senate races. He couldn’t help add: “I hope they help me too! It’d be nice if they help us too, right?”

Clinton/Wikileaks: Bill Scher says that the Wikileaks emails haven’t taken a toll on Hillary because voters know not to give Russia the boost it wanted from the process, and because they know that other candidates probably have similar emails with their staff. That is … exactly wrong. The Wikileaks emails haven’t flipped the race–though we don’t know that they haven’t affected the polls by stopping some of Trump’s bleeding–because the news media has been far more focused on p**sygate and Trump’s other comments.

Fourth Debate: Ignoring the will of the voters, Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway is floating the idea of a fourth presidential debate between Trump and Hillary. Have we not suffered enough?

Pence: Mike Pence continues to try to direct his running mate into safer ground, but of course it doesn’t work. Still, my level of respect for Pence has gone way up since his VP campaign began.


FL-Sen: In a credibility-undermining move, the New York Times has gone out of its way to endorse Patrick Murphy (D). At least we’ll likely get to laugh at them when Rubio wins.

PA-Sen: Hillary is now calling out Toomey by name in her Pennsylvania stump speeches. Most recently she criticized him for not abandoning Trump.

IN-Sen: Even Bayh recognizes that he’s flailing. The question is whether the clock will run out before the GOP has a chance to show everyone in Indiana what is wrong with Bayh.

NH-Sen: Mike Pence vocally supported Kelly Ayotte in a recent stop in New Hampshire, despite the fact that she has publicly abandoned Trump. More reason to give Mike Pence the credit he deserves.


CA-49: Democrats smell blood in the water in Darrell Issa’s seat, with Obama directly addressing the race and promoting the Democratic candidate.


U.S. Copyright Office: In some lower-level drama, the head of the U.S. Copyright Office has been removed–by the Librarian of Congress–after asserting last year that the Copyright Office ought to have more independence, citing “mounting operational tensions” in a letter to Rep. Conyers. Drama!

Pre-Vetting: Here’s a depressing look into the process of looking for dirty on yourself so you can submit your findings when you want to get a presidential appointment to a commission or ambassadorship. I guess it helps the legal economy that this is happening, but the piece actually made me feel some sympathy.


RRH Elections October 2016 Senate Rankings

It is time once again to update our Senate Rankings. Here is this month’s map:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
CA (OPEN) Likely Harris
CT (Blumenthal)
HI (Schatz)
NY (Schumer)
OR (Wyden)
VT (Leahy)
WA (Murray)
CO (Bennet) IL (Kirk)
WI (Johnson)
MO (Blunt)
NH (Ayotte)
NC (Burr)
PA (Toomey)
FL (Rubio) AZ (McCain)
GA (Isakson)
IA (Grassley)
OH (Portman)
AL (Shelby)
AK (Murkowski)
AR (Boozman)
ID (Crapo)
KS (Moran)
KY (Paul)
ND (Hoeven)
OK (Lankford)
SC (Scott)
SD (Thune)
UT (Lee)

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip partisan control; Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat.

RRH Elections has made the following five changes to our Senate Ratings since our last post in September, two in Republicans’ favor:

Arizona Likely R from Lean R || Ohio Likely R from Lean R

Two in favor of Democrats:

Georgia Likely R from Safe R || Missouri Tossup from Lean R

And one intra-party rating change:

California Likely Harris from Lean Harris

These changes mean that we are projecting a net shift in the Senate of between D+1 and D+7, with our best guess estimate being a Democratic gain of 5 seats, for a 51D-49R Senate.

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Weekend Open Thread For October 21-23, 2016

Welcome to the weekend folks. Don’t forget to check back at noon tomorrow for our newest Senate Rankings. Here are some questions to get you started.

  1. Who are the biggest Republican winners of the 2016 election cycle? How about Democrats? (aside from Hillary Clinton).
  2. What will be the total 3rd party vote for presidential candidates? Will it exceed 10%?

Because it is the weekend…..we give you a supercut of the Democrats reaction to what Donald Trump has done to the GOP HERE


RRH Elections 2016 General Election Preview Series, Part 1: Northeast Legislatures

Today we are very proud to kick off our 2016 General Election Preview Series. The preview series will take place in 10 parts on the following schedule – each weekday at Noon ET for the next two weeks (with a break next Friday when we will be releasing our Vermont Poll):

Part 1 (Friday, October 21): Northeast Legislatures
Parts 2-4 (Monday, October 24 – Wednesday, October 26): Legislatures
Part 5 (Thursday, October 27): Local Elections and Public Service Commissioners
Parts 6-7 (Monday, October 31 – Tuesday, November 1): House Races
Parts 8-9 (Wednesday, November 2 – Thursday, November 3): Governor and Row Officer Races
Part 10 (Friday, November 4): Senate Races

I make no claim that this is a comprehensive directory of every single race; there may be some mildly competitive or even highly competitive races that I missed or cut out to save space and time. But this series will provide a few words to give a 30,000 foot assessment of almost every competitive legislative election in America this year. A few chambers are excluded: the states of CA, KY, MI, and MN will have top-notch diary series being done about them by jncca, GradyDem, ConservativeFirst and TwinPines, and OGGoldy, which I will not try to duplicate. I am also going to skip two chambers in New England, the NH and VT House. Both of these chambers, by far the two largest legislatures per capita (1 State Rep. for every 3300 people in NH and 1 for every 4200 people in VT), are in the situation where the interesting insights such previews will yield is totally minuscule in proportion to the effort needed to write them.

Today we start with the Northeast, covering 18 chambers in 10 states: Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. In Yellow are states covered in this preview, white states will be covered in parts 2-4 next week, light gray are states others will cover in the diaries, and black are states with no legislative elections this year.

There are 5 competitive chambers in this update, four GOP-held (New Hampshire House and Senate, Maine Senate, New York Senate) and one Dem held (Maine House). Six  other chambers (the GOP-held West Virginia Senate and House and Pennsylvania House, and the Dem-held Connecticut Senate and House and Delaware Senate) are what I call “theoretically competitive”, meaning that control could flip if the minority party swept the competitive seats, but such a scenario is exceedingly unlikely.

This post will likely be the longest as the Northeast has a number of states with a ton of competitive legislative elections (namely Connecticut, Maine, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) so I wanted to put this post up first to give those interested more time to digest it.

Flip over for the full previews!

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Political Roundup for October 21, 2016

Please check back at Noon today for the first installment of our general election preivews, covering legislatures in the northeast. Also be sure to check out izengabe’s how-to guide to write-in voting.


Clinton fundraising: Priorities USA, a pro-Clinton super PAC, raised $24.6 million in September, its best fundraising month to date. With the super PAC swimming in cash and Clinton doing well enough in some swing states, they are now expanding the map and sending some money to races down the ballot. They recently decided to run ads for Clinton in Georgia, and are considering doing so in Arizona. Confident of their position in New Hampshire and Pennsylvnania, they have stopped advertising for Clinton in those states, and are now running ads against Sens. Kelly Ayotte (R) and Pat Toomey (R). They are also considering contributing to House races, although no decisions have been made yet.


CA-Sen: Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) has a huge money lead over Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) going into the final stretch of their campaigns for Senate. She has a more than 4-1 cash on hand lead with over $4 million in her campaign account compared to $879,000 for Sanchez.

FL-Sen: Sen. Marco Rubio (R) has walked a fine line on Donald Trump, endorsing him but not really enbracing him. President Obama took him to task yesterday for his position on Trump, pointing out in a rally in Miami that Rubio called Trump a “con artist” during the primaries, but now says he plans to vote for him. Obama said of Rubio “that’s a sign of somebody who will say anything, do anything, pretend to be anybody just to get elected.”

More FL-Sen: Sen. Marco Rubio (R) appeared to rule out a 2020 presidential bid in a Wednesday radio interview. He said “if I wanted to run for something else, I wouldn’t have run for Senate.” He also said “If I wanted to run for president in 4 years, I would have just stayed out of this race and started running on November the 9, which a lot of other people are going to do.”

LA-Sen: New Orleans economic development official Abhay Patel (R) is dropping out of the race for US Senate and endorsing Rep. Charles Boustany (R). Patel was one of 24 people to file for the race, but never received much attention in a race with many well-known names. Patel appeared with Boustany in the New Orleans area to make the endorsement calling Boustany a “man of integrity who has devoted his life to getting results.”

NV-Sen: Although Sen. Harry Reid (D) is not on the ballot this year, the race to replace him is being seen as his last stand. Reid has been vocal in his criticism of Rep. Joe Heck (R), calling him a “mini-Trump”, despite Heck saying recently that he now will not vote for him. Heck has also turned things around on Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by accusing her of being hypocritical for criticizing controversial things Trump has said, but not criticizing some of Reid’s own outrageous comments. Heck also has to walk a fine line on Trump, choosing not to criticize him publicly at a recent rally in Ely where some in the audience were wearing Trump’s “Make America Great Again” hats. There is concern that some Trump-supporting Republicans will use Nevada’s famous “None of the Above” option in protest against Heck saying he will not vote for Trump.

NH-Sen: Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is criticizing Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the presidential election in advance, saying “The voters are going to decide this election, and Donald Trump needs to accept the outcome. If there are reports that need to be investigated, they will be, as I used to do as Attorney General.” Ayotte has been accused by Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) of not standing up to Trump enough.


CA-10, CA-25, CA-49: Two national political analysts are increasingly seeing 3 Republican held seats in danger due at least in part to Trump. The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball have both moved the Republican held seats of Rep. Jeff Denham (CA-10), Rep. Steve Knight (CA-25), and Rep. Darrell Issa (CA-49) from “lean Republican” to “toss-up”. Trump being a bad fit for California, dispirited Republicans not turning out, and the US Senate race featuring two Democrats are cited as reasons why the 3 seats are more vulnerable.

Governor/State offices:

OK-Gov 2018: Attorney General Scott Pruitt (R) says he is considering running for governor in 2018 and will make a decision sometime after the November election. Pruitt had also been mentioned as a possible candidate for the OK-1 congressional seat in 2018 as Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R) appears set on sticking to a three term limit pledge he made when he first ran. However, Pruitt says he is not considering a run for Congress.

WA Republicans/Trump: The state of Washington appears to be the strongest hotbed of anti-Trump sentiment among Republican candidates. Only one Republican for statewide office, LG candidate Marty McClendon has pledged to support him. Others, including gubernatorial candidate Bill Bryant, US Senate nominee Chris Vance, state treasurer candidates Michael Waite and Duane Davidson and state auditor candidate Mark Miloscia have either said they will not support him or have refused to say who they will support.