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Afternoon Polling Roundup for August 24, 2016

President:

National: Reuters/Ipsos has Clinton 41, Trump 33 in a 4-way race, and Clinton 45, Trump 33 in a 2-way.

More National: Economist/Yougov has Clinton 42, Trump 38 in a 4-way race.

Florida: A St. Leo University Poll has Clinton 52, Trump 38 in a 4-way race.

More Florida: Florida Atlantic University has Trump 43, Clinton 41. A 16 point difference between two polls.

Missouri: Monmouth has Trump 44, Clinton 43 in a 4-way race.

New Mexico: PPP has Clinton 40, Trump 31, Johnson 16, Stein 4.

South Carolina: An internal poll taken for the SC Democratic Party has Trump 45, Clinton 43 in a 2-way and the two tied at 39 in a 4-way.

Utah: PPP has Trump 39, Clinton 24, Johnson 12, McMullin 9.

Virginia: Roanoke College has Clinton 48, Trump 32 in a 4-way matchup, and Clinton 55, Trump 36 in a 2-way. One caveat: Roanoke College has had some pretty bad polls in VA in the past-their final 2012 poll had Romney +5.

Senate:

FL-Sen: St. Leo University has Rubio 46, Murphy 38. He leads Grayson 47-34. Both Rubio and Murphy have wide leads in their primaries.

More FL-Sen: Florida Atlantic University has Rubio 44, Murphy 39

MO-Sen: Monmouth has Blunt 48, Kander 43.

State races:

MO-Gov: Monmouth has Koster 51, Greitens 40.

NM-SOS: PPP has Toulouse Oliver (D) 42, Espinoza (R) 35

97 Comments »

Political Roundup For Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Good morning everyone. Pour some wine out for your homies on Vesuvius Day, which marks the anniversary of the destruction of Pompeii, Herculaneum, and Stabiae in 79 A.D.

Presidential News:

Clinton: It turns out that Hillary Clinton, while Secretary of State, had quite a pattern of meeting with Clinton Foundation donors. While the evidence of “pay to play” is only circumstantial, even liberals are admitting that the facts don’t look good. And Trump doesn’t necessarily need to win disaffected Clinton voters. Getting them to stay home is a half victory.

Romney Donors: Clinton is making a concerted effort to reach out to large Romney donors for cash and support. Obviously Clinton likes the money and the press from gaining big Romney folks, but the pitch to donors that they can only save the GOP by electing Hillary is a ruse. My sense is that Clinton is dog-whistling here, and that the message is that if these donors want political appointments or federal judgeships, they ought to recognize that they need to play the game.

Colorado: (No link) A source within the Trump campaign tells me they have an internal showing them down only 2 or 3 points to Hillary Clinton, depending on whether Johnson and Stein are included in the poll. Take with a grain of salt, given the source and the rough 6-point rule on internal polls.

Governors:

MO-Gov: Democrat Koster is pulling away from recent GOP primary winner Greitens. Republicans are starting to feel a little skeptical about this race.

Senate:

AZ-Sen: This is a good piece about McCain making the moves toward winning in 2016. He knows he needs to be less dour, and more personable. McCain should win his primary, and his race against Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick will be close but he should pull it out.

NC-Sen: GOP incumbent Richard Burr has a new ad out touting his support for education for poor and at-risk youth. Naturally, Democrat Deborah Ross counters that she would be even better on education issues, given the amount of money Democrats are willing to always spend.

NH-Sen: The Manshester Union Leader says both Ayotte and Hassan should abandon their parties’ presidential nominees. Easier said than done. While Ayotte has put distance between herself and Trump, Hassan has decided to go all in on Clinton.

FL-Sen: Republican candidate Carlos Beruff is not going quietly into that good night. Over the course of the campaign, he’s loaned himself about $8 million. Of course, Beruff can pay himself back out of campaign contributions from others, and anything unspent can be returned to him personally.

House:

FL-23: A new poll has Debbie Wasserman Schultz leading her Sanderista opponent Tim Canova only 50-40. With one week to go before the election, Canova is within striking distance of DWS. A strong endorsement–and maybe a personal appearance–from Bernie Sanders could make a big difference.

Miscellany:

Facebook ads: In case you want to know how Facebook is targeting you for its advertisers, you can figure out if it thinks you’re a liberal, moderate, or conservative. Me? I got “very conservative.”

Louisiana Flood: The President finally traveled to Louisiana to see flood-ravaged areas. Too little, too late. The damage has been done and the comparisons to President Bush’s handling of Katrina will continue. Obama even praised his FEMA chief, in a weird flashback to “heck of  a job Brownie.”

John Oliver: This piece from Last Week Tonight urging Trump to drop out of the presidential race is pretty funny. Worth a watch.

64 Comments »

Oklahoma Runoff Preview & Tuesday Afternoon Open Thread

Today there is a primary runoff in Oklahoma; while no high-level races are up for grabs, there are a handful of legislative seats, for which we offer previews here. Polls close at 8p ET but there isn’t enough to liveblog. As these races probably won’t generate much additional discussion, feel free to use this thread as a general discussion thread for this afternoon as well.

Results

Oklahoma State Senate:

OK-SD-13 (R) is an open D-held R+22 seat around Ada and Pauls Valley. Rancher Jet McCoy (R), who appeared on The Amazing Race, led ex-Ada Mayor Greg McCortney (R) 44-38 in the first round and looks like a moderate favorite in the runoff; the winner will face teacher Eric Hall (D).
OK-SD-19 (R) is an open R+29 seat around Enid. Farmer Roland Pederson (R) led physician Ross Vanhooser (R) 49-40 in the first round and should be favored today.
OK-SD-23 (R) is an open R+23 seat in the western OKC exurbs around Chickasha and El Reno. Former Tuttle Mayor Lonnie Paxton (R) came 1% shy of winning outright in June and looks favored over attorney Matt Stacy (R), who took 38%.
OK-SD-25 (R) is an open R+26 seat in southern Tulsa and suburbs near Bixby. School board member Lisa Kramer (R) led realtor Joe Newhouse (R) 35-29 in the first round; as Newhouse is on better terms with the conservative base there is no clear favorite today.
OK-SD-31 (R) is an open R+19 seat covering southeast Lawton and rural areas to the South. Teacher Toni Hasenbeck (R), who ran for the legislature as a D in 2014, led Farm Bureau official Chris Kidd (R) 41-38 in the first round. As Kidd has more GOP institutional support he looks like a slight favorite with the smaller electorate.
OK-SD-39 (R) is an open R+13 seat in central Tulsa. Former University of Tulsa football coach Dave Rader (R) is the better-known candidate and led the first round with 40%; he is probably favored over nonprofit exec Amanda Teegarden (R), who took 25% in June.
OK-SD-41 (R) is an open R+25 seat covering Edmond in the northern OKC suburbs. Former NFL player and pastor Paul Blair (R), who narrowly lost a 2012 race for this seat to the prior incumbent, surprisingly came in second with 45% in June as veteran Adam Pugh (R) fell 15 votes shy of winning outright. Blair, a member of the John Birch Society (yes, it still exists), is running to Pugh’s right and may have an energized voter base though, so there is no clear favorite.

Oklahoma State House:

OK-LD-8 (R) is an open D-held R+22 seat around Pryor in the eastern Tulsa exurbs. School board member Tom Gann (R) led physician Steven Dill (R) 33-31 in the first round and there is no clear favorite today. The winner will face ex-Pryor councilman Darrell Moore (D) in the general.
OK-LD-16 (D) is an open D-held R+13 seat covering the east side of Okmulgee in the southern Tulsa exurbs. Tradesman Ronnie Kell (D) led liberal businesswoman Anna Dearmore (D) 43-31 in June and is probably favored today. The winner will face businessman Scott Fetgatter (R).
OK-LD-60 (R) is an open R+25 seat in western OKC exurbs around El Reno. Two teachers are facing off: Rhonda Baker (R) led Chad Slane (R) 48-38 in June and looks favored today.
OK-LD-67 (R) is an open R+28 seat in southern Tulsa. Attorney Scott McEachin (R) led businessman Tom McCloud (R) 40-35 in June and there is no clear favorite in the runoff.
OK-LD-85 (R) is a D-held R+13 seat around Lake Hefner in northwest OKC. Two Republicans are vying to take on incumbent Cyndi Munson (D), who won a 2015 special election in a surprise. Oklahoma County GOP chair and 2015 candidate Matt Jackson (R) led PR specialist Robyn Matthews (R) 47-35 in June and looks favored today.
OK-LD-97 (D) is an open D+22 seat in majority-black areas of northeast OKC. Attorney Jason Lowe (D) looks like the favorite over school board member Chris Harrison (D) after leading 46-25 in June.

There is also one special election, for MS-LD-72, a D+20 seat in northwestern Jackson and southern Madison County. Four candidates are running in the Louisiana Rules Top Two format; parties are not listed on the ballot but all four seem to be Dems. Jackson mayoral staffer Synarus Green (D) and state official Debra Gibbs (D) look like the front-runners and likely head to a runoff, but businesswomen Shae Buchanon-Williams (D) and Theresa Kennedy (D) are also running.

114 Comments »

Political Roundup For Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Good morning everyone. Happy Cuban Sandwich Day.

Presidential News:

Clinton/Trump: On Monday, Trump did a fair job hitting Hillary on her email scandal, using the FBI’s discovery of 15,000 new emails that were never produced and the fact that Colin Powell won’t take a bullet for Clinton against her.

Judicial Watch: Conservative organization Judicial Watch released a treasure trove of over 700 emails yesterday, many of which show cozy relationships between Hillary Clinton during her tenure as Secretary of State and Clinton Foundation donors. Busted!

Huma: It also appears that Clinton aide Huma Abedin left classified materials in the front seat of her vehicle in India. Whoops!

Trump sick?: Trump has cancelled events in Colorado, Nevada, and … Oregon for this week. It’s a little strange, the speculation is that Trump must be sick. Hopefully his health is ok.

Johnson: Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson isn’t much of a libertarian. He’s now endorsed a carbon tax as a means of stopping carbon emissions and tackling global warming. While there is disagreement as to whether taxes are a legitimate part of a libertarian utopia, there aren’t many who suggest that new taxes are a good way of paternalistically changing social and commercial behavior. Frankly, Johnson is just a moderate, not a libertarian.

McMullin: Surprisingly, independent candidate Evan McMullin failed to turn in the required 275 signatures necessary to get onto the Tennessee ballot. This seems like a low threshold to miss.

Senate:

FL-Sen: (No Link) While Senator Marco Rubio has a significant cash advantage over his potential opponents Patrick Murphy and Alan Grayson, he isn’t letting up, and has had Rep. Trey Gowdy–who enjoys near universal popularity among the GOP base–cut several fundraising emails for him. One I received yesterday informed me that “Democrats are eyeing Florida as the key to winning back the Senate.” I mean, it isn’t false necessarily. I just wouldn’t prioritize money going to Florida at this point, when New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are on the edge.

NH-Sen: Ayotte comfortably says that Trump isn’t always honest and trustworthy, compared to Governor Hassan, who is all in with Hillary, and somehow does feel comfortable saying Clinton is honest and trustworthy.

MD-Sen: Here’s a recent article wondering if the Republican candidate, Delegate Kathy Szeliga, can win the Senate race against Democrat Chris Van Hollen. I like their optimism! Unfortunately this one is outside of reach.

IL-Sen/PA-Sen: Gabby Giffords’ PAC–Americans for Responsible Gun Solutions–endorsed Illinois Republican Mark Kirk and Pennsylvania Republican Pat Toomey yesterday. Somewhat surprising, since both Republicans would presumably vote to keep Mitch McConnell as majority leader.  McGinty’s campaign questioned the judgment of the Toomey endorsement.

Congress:

FL-18: Veteran Brian Mast’s campaign touted a poll showing him way ahead of the primary field. I was in the district a few weeks ago and definitely perceived Mast to have the greatest sign/campaign presence in the area. I concur that the poll “feels” right to me.

FL-19: Dan Bongino got into a heated spat with Politico reporter Marc Caputo. Bongino obviously lost his cool but clearly Caputo was trying to bait him. Why take the bait when you know you’re being recorded though?

Miscellany:

FEC violation: Credit where it’s due on this one to Huffington Post, even though I despise the “disclaimer” at the bottom of their articles on Trump. It appears Trump has jacked up the rent that his own properties are charging his campaign, now that his campaign is getting money from donors. This is a big no-no in campaign finance law. You can rent some of your own properties to your campaign, but only at the fair market value. Anything higher and you’re impermissibly using campaign contributions for personal gain. Expect to see an FEC complaint filed against Trump soon, if the numbers are accurate.

77 Comments »

Afternoon Polling Roundup for August 22, 2016

President & National:

Reuters: Clinton 41 Trump 34 Johnson 7. Clinton leads Trump 42-34 in the head to head.

ARG: Clinton 47 Trump 42 head to head.

Ohio/Iowa: CBS/YouGov has Clinton up 46-40 in Ohio and the two tied 40-40 in Iowa.

More Ohio: Monmouth has Clinton up 43-39 on Trump with Johnson at 10.

North Carolina: Gravis has Trump up 39-38 in NC.

South Carolina: Gravis has Trump up 41-37 in SC.

Alaska: Ivan Moore has Trump up 39-30 in Alaska with 16% going to Gary Johnson.

Congress:

CO-Sen, IA-Sen: Quinnipiac tests both of these swing-state Senate races and they find the incumbents leading. In Colorado they find Sen. Michael Bennet (D) up 54-38 on El Paso County commissioner Darrell Glenn (R), and in Iowa they find Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) leading ex-LG Patty Judge (D) 51-42.

IN-Sen: Another internal for ex-Sen. Evan Bayh (D) shows him up 55-39 on Rep. Todd Young (R). The sheer volume of Dem internals being released in this race suggests to me that Bayh’s standing is probably getting worse and they’re trying to get Republicans to give up on Young before the race starts looking competitive.

FL-23: A poll from the Sun-Sentinel and Florida Atlantic University shows Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D) up 50-40 on law professor Tim Canova (D).

96 Comments »

Political Roundup for August 22, 2016

Greetings from suburban Des Moines where it is nice to be on soil of a state which rejected both of the populist insurgencies during this primary season.

President

Early Voting:  The election starts on September 8 when voters who request a ballot in North Carolina can receive one by mail.  That is approximately 60 days from election day!

Students for Trump: Trump’s college student following appears to be completely organic in existence as the candidate and campaign refuse to acknowledge its existence.  Maybe Trump associates anything involving college students as not fitting his working class white identity politics mania.

Stein:  Green Party candidate Jill Stein is campaigning on being a moral compass for America.  Was her desire to be a moral compass before or after she decided to embrace the vaccine truthers?

Clinton-Fundraising:  Hillary Clinton is half way to her $1 billion fundraising goal.

Trump-Immigration:  Apparently Trump is considering a flipflop on amnesty. Cue Nelson Muntz…

Congress

Dumping Trump:  Congressional Republicans are looking at ways to dump Trump and advocate their candidates as a strong check on the presumptive President Hillary Clinton.  While I think Trump has tarnished the Republican brand in suburbia, it is not a bad idea to at least trying to stop Trump.

DNC Fundraising: The DNC raised $32.4 million in July, which is over 3 times the amount it raised in July 2012.  $14.9 million of it was raised for the Democratic National Convention and other designated accounts though.

RNC Fundraising:  The RNC raised $27.2 million in July, which is less than the $37.7 million raised in July 2012.  $9 million of it was raised for the Republican National Convention and other designated accounts though.

CA-Sen:  The LA Times looks at why Representative Loretta Sanchez is having a hard time gaining traction in the Democrat vs. Democrat US Senate race with California Attorney General Kamala Harris.  Sanchez has been MIA most of August while staffers say she has been preoccupied with fundraising.

PA-Sen:  The Hill looks at the impact the presidential race is having on the state’s US Senate race.  Senator Pat Toomey was running comfortably ahead of his challenger Katie McGinty until about a month ago.

IN-Sen:  Former Senator/lobbyist Evan Bayh has been determined to be an inactive voter.  So much for living and caring about Indiana while living in DC as a lobbyist.

 

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RRH Elections August 2016 Gubernatorial Rankings

Today we present our latest round of gubernatorial rankings. Here is this month’s map:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
DE (OPEN)
OR (K. Brown)
WA (Inslee)
MT (Bullock)
NJ (’17, OPEN)
VT (OPEN)
IN (OPEN)
MO (OPEN)
NH (OPEN)
NC (McCrory)
VA (’17, OPEN)
WV (OPEN)
ND (OPEN)
UT (Herbert)

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip partisan control. Italics denotes a D-held Tossup Seat.

RRH Elections has made the following change to our gubernatorial ratings since our last update in May, in Democrats’ favor:

Indiana Tossup from Lean R

These changes mean we are projecting a net shift in gubernatorial seats of between R+3 and D+2 in 2016 and between R+3 and D+3 in 2016 and 2017 together.

Flip over for the full narratives!

Continue Reading

161 Comments »

Weekend Open Thread for August 19-21, 2016

As the runaway train known as this electoral cycle careens towards Labor Day, it is time for this weekend’s open thread. Please check back tomorrow at Noon for our latest gubernatorial rankings.

(1)  If elected president, who would Donald Trump’s principal global allies be (besides Uncle Vlad and his former Soviet state sycophants)?

(2) What foreign elections are you watching at the moment?

(3) Which House races do you consider sleeper races right now?

And because it is the weekend…..we give a look at Donald Trump’s 1st TV ad HERE

99 Comments »

Political Roundup for August 19, 2016

President:

Trump-apology: Those are not two words that usually go together, but Donald Trump has come about the closest you will ever see him apologize for anything he has said or done. In a rare scripted speech in Charlotte, he expressed regret for sometimes not choosing the right words or causing personal pain for people. He blamed it on not being a politician and not being politically correct. He also blamed the media for focusing on the content of his remarks and not on the country’s problems.

Senate:

FL-Sen: Sen. Marco Rubio (R) has raised $5.5 million since joining the race 7 weeks ago. That includes $3.25 million since July 1 to add to the $2.2 million he raised in the first couple of weeks. As of Aug.10, he has $4.6 million cash on hand.

More FL-Sen: If, as expected Carlos Beruff loses the Republican nomination for Senate, don’t expect to see him on the ballot again any time soon. Rumors around Tallahassee have been that Beruff might run for governor in 2018 to succeed his friend Gov. Rick Scott (R), but he says he’s not interested and says he never wanted to be a politician-just that he saw some things broken and wanted to help fix them.

IN-Sen: Former Sen. Evan Bayh (D) has twice been listed as an “inactive” voter on the Indiana voting results, including just last week. A voter is listed as inactive if they fail to respond to multiple postcards asking if they still live at the address listed on the voter rolls. He failed to respond to postcards sent to the Indianapolis condo which he lists as his official address. Being listed as inactive is the first step in being removed from the voter rolls, however an inactive voter is still registered and can cast a ballot.

NH-Sen: Michael Bloomberg’s Independence USA PAC is running an ad criticizing Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) for supporting Donald Trump. Ayotte has said she won’t endorse him, but will vote for him in November. The ad points to other Republicans who are not supporting him at all and questions how she can claim to be an independent Republican when she won’t join them.

House:

CA-7: The father of Rep. Ami Bera (D) has been sentenced to a year and a day in prison for a money-laundering scheme that funded two of the younger Bera’s congressional campaigns. Babulal Bera, who is 83 years old was also fined $100,000. Ami Bera says he didn’t know anything about the scheme, which has become an issue in his race with Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones (R).

Governor:

IL-Gov. 2018: Chicago city Treasurer Kurt Summers (D) has been touted as a future mayor of Chicago, but he may be interested in a run for governor in 2018. A lot depends however on what Sen. Dick Durbin (D) does-if he runs, he may clear the field for Democrats. Summers interest in running for governor is also seen as a sign that Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D) plans to seek re-election in 2019.

State & Local:

PA-AG: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) has nominated former Deputy AG Bruce Beemer (D) to replace now former AG Kathleen Kane (D). It originally appeared that Bruce Castor (R), the current Deputy AG and former Montgomery County DA would hold the job until the new AG elected in November is inaugurated in January. Castor had even been referring to himself as the Attorney General, removing the “interim” title. Beemer must be approved by the State Senate, which isn’t likely to happen before the end of the month.

South Dakota non-partisan elections amendment: South Dakota has on the ballot this fall a measure which has got little attention, but would make one of the most sweeping changes to elections in the country. If passed, it would make all elections in the state non-partisan except for president. They would essentially adopt the method Nebraska uses to elect members of the Legislature-top two without party labels. A separate measure would also turn over redistricting to a non-partisan commission.

73 Comments »

Afternoon Polling Roundup for August 18th, 2016

In the immortal words of Michael Cohen, “Which polls?” and “Says who?” Let’s get to who in today’s afternoon roundup.

President & National:

NY-Pres: First up in polls where Donald Trump is down is Siena, conducted last week among registered voters in the Empire State. He trails Clinton there 50%-25% with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 6%. If you were wondering, no this would not be the worst ever performance of a major party presidential candidate in their home state. User roguemapper informs us that would be the intrepid John C Fremont back in 1856. He took a little less than 20% in his home state of California during the first Republican presidential campaign with former US President Millard Fillmore on the ballot as a third party candidate. Mind you, Trump gets these numbers even as 60% of voters say they do not believe Hillary is trustworthy, but that’s what happens when 69% think Trump is untrustworthy too (73% think Trump is not qualified to be commander in chief as well).

National: Looking at those numbers, it’s important to note that the voters are not all in a “POX ON BOTH THEIR HOUSES” mentality. Instead, there is only so much overlap between people who rate Trump unfavorable and Clinton unfavorable. In fact, an analysis of numbers from SurveyMonkey shows 87% prefer one candidate over another. Nevertheless, the 10% who *do* hate both candidates make an interesting swing demographic, as the article notes.

National: Pew has a new national poll out with Clinton 41%, Trump 37%,  Johnson 10%, Stein 4% and  DK/Other 7

VA-Pres: Here’s another poll for Mr. Cohen where Trump is down. In Virginia, the Washington Post went in last weekend and found Trump trails Hillary 38%-52% among registered voters, winning only in the southwest region of the state. Among likely voters, the race narrows to 51%-43%. FWIW, when the third party candidates are thrown in Johnson takes 11% and Stein 4%.

National: I saved the best for last. In a bold attempt at unskewing the LAMEstream media’s cooked polls, Trump Media Breitbart teamed up with the prestigious Republican polling firm Gravis (salt! salt!) to conduct a one-day poll of 2800 likely voters (nice on the sample size, huh on the timing?). The result? Clinton leads Trump 42%-37%, with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 3%.

GA-Pres: Opinion Savvy poll of Georgia has the formerly solidly red state as a tossup deadheat with Trump and Clinton both tied at 43% with Gary Johnson at 11% and 3% undecided.  Green Party candidate Jill Stein will not be on the ballot in the state of Georgia. Key finding here is that 47% of Georgia voters believe it is “likely” that a US Presidential election could be rigged and that a candidate could be declared a winner of a state they actually lose.

NV-Pres: Suffolk University poll of Nevada has Hillary Clinton leading by 2 points 44% to Donald Trump’s 42% with Gary Johnson at 5% and None of these candidates (which is an option on the ballot in Nevada) at 3%. Jill Stein is not on the ballot in Nevada and the state does not allow write in votes.

FL-Pres: Finally a poll the Trumpkins can be happy about! The latest PPP Florida poll has Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton 74% to 9% with Jill Stein at 3% and Gary Johnson at 1%! Of course this is a very funny hoax parody of a PPP poll that someone put together for laughs. We figured you all would enjoy reading it.

Congress:

NV-Sen: The Senate portion of the Suffolk University poll has Republican Joe Heck and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto tied at 37% a piece with undecided at 15%.

AZ-5: Two new polls are out in this open-seat primary race, and they agree that the contest is definitely up for grabs. An independent survey from Highground Consulting shows State Sen. Andy Biggs (R) leading 2014 gubernatorial candidate and tech exec Christine Jones (R) 22-20, with Maricopa County Supervisor Don Stapley (R) and State Rep. Justin Olson (R) close behind at 17 and 14 respectively. An internal for Stapley from Data Orbital has Jones leading him 22-19, Biggs tying Stapley at 19, and Olson at 14.

FL-18: An internal (salt) for Brian Mast’s Republican primary campaign in this open seat unsurprisingly finds his own campaign leading the race. The two week old poll of likely Republican primary voters found Mast at 39%, Rebecca Negron at 19%, Mark Freeman at 18%, and Carl Domino at 10%. However, it’s hard to see Mast out to a twenty-point lead when certain candidates either have a much bigger profile (Negron, Domino) or a lot more money (Freeman) than him. Of course we don’t have any crosstabs or even a one-page release, nor do we have any presidential numbers as sometimes get shared with these types of authorized leaks.

NY-3: DCCC released an internal poll showing Democrat Tom Suozzi leading Republican Jack Martins 52 percent to 36 percent and Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in the district, 51 percent to 35 percent. I call BS on this one. Other polls have shown a much tighter race and this seems like an effort to troll Martin and the GOP on the heels of a federal judge forcing an October 6th GOP primary upon the GOP.

State & Local:

Fresno: A poll from SUSA for local TV station KFSN has this race razor-tight, with Fresno County Supervisor Henry Perea Sr. (D) leading city councilman Lee Brand (R) 46-44. Fresno is light-blue, but despite the Mayor’s office being up in presidential elections, Fresno last elected a Democratic mayor in the 80s.