Before I get into the polls for this afternoon, let me editorialize a little and say that it’s hard to imagine how lucky you must feel if you’re Hillary Clinton. Tarred by scandal, rejected by 40% of your party, in the midst of a pay-to-play blow up, and your opponent just can’t help himself but undermine his very own base by waffling on his signature issue. It would be hard not to wake up every day, knowing that there’s a deity smiling on you.
Approval: The RCP average now has President Obama above water at 6.6 points. The average even includes two polls that have him under water at -5 and -6. Clearly, the President is enjoying a renaissance of good feelings compared to the current presidential candidates. That’s in contrast to the RCP right track/wrong track average, which stands at -36.
Michigan: Clinton 44, Trump 37, Johnson 5, Stein 3. Not too bad for Trump. But a narrow loss is still a loss.
Reuters: 42-35 straight up, only 39-36 when Johnson and Stein are included. (Trump apparently goes UP a point when more options are included).
Rasmussen: 42-38-9-2. You don’t even need me to tell you what order the candidates are listed in by now.
Quinnipiac: 51-41 straight up, 45-38-10-4 with the whole crew.
LA Times: Trump fans can find refuge in the LA Times tracker, which has it at 44-44, tied. I’m thinking that this may be the outlier around here.
NC-Gov: Two polls show Republican incumbent Pat McCrory way down. CNN has him losing to Democrat Roy Cooper 52-46. Monmouth has it hat 52-43, which is slightly worse. I’m not sure any of the other moderators put this race at Lean D in our Governor’s rankings last week, or if I was the only one.
AZ-Sen: Good result for McCain here, leading Ann Kirkpatrick 52-39. Nothing better than beating the Congressman who challenges you and then having your party pick up the seat.
FL-Sen: Murphy over Grayson 55-22. (Does Grayson run for his current House seat in 2018?) Rubio over Beruff 61-22. Rubio over Murphy 46-43, which is a little tight, but I’m not too worried here.
NC-Sen: CNN has Burr up 5. Monmouth has Burr up only 2.
Generic Ballot: Hidden on Page 13 of the Reuters poll above is a generic ballot question. Dems lead 43-36, but get a load of the independents in the poll:
Will vote Dem: 16
Will vote GOP: 24
Third party: 16
Won’t vote: 6
Don’t know/Refused: 38
Clearly there’s a lot of volatility out there that could affect the House races this cycle.
And in non-polling news, here is the saddest book release party you’ll ever see. (Ann Coulter on the night Trump “softens” on immigration).