MO: A SUSA poll of the Show Me state has Trump up a comfortable 10 points. That’s still not great for him in what has become a reliable GOP state, but it certainly points to a competitive general election.
NH: A poll from Inside Sources/NH Journal (anyone heard of them before?) Has Trump up 9 points in New Hampshire. This seems to be a new polling outfit, so heaps of salt is required, and they also found the GOP is doing similarly in all of the other state-wide races in New Hampshire.
National: Reuters has Trump up 2 points on Clinton nationally, the best they’ve ever had him at. We’ll have to see if Clinton can manage a convention bounce as well, though given that the major story of the last few days has been the DNC email leaks rather than the actual convention, I wouldn’t be surprised if she got nothing out of it.
RCP: Trump is up almost a full point in the RCP average, representing his best showing to date against Clinton and also a better showing than Mitt Romney ever pulled against Obama in 2012.
Trump-Denial: Sean Trende points out that at this point, the idea that Trump could never win the presidency is pretty much just wishful thinking by his opponents. “Trump is going to get creamed at the debates” has followed “He’s going to lose once Sanders endorses” and “He’s going to lose when the GOP field consolidates” in the long line of supposed dead-ends for Trump. Could he tank in the Fall Campaign? Possibly. But at this point Trump has shown political Teflon never before seen by a political candidate, so I doubt anything short of revealing himself to actually be Putin in disguise is going to cause the landslide loss that has been so regularly predicted.
TPP: T-MAC, a longtime Clinton ally, has said that she will support the trade deal once elected president, which was quickly denied by the Clinton campaign. At this point, does anyone honestly not believe him?
FL-Sen: Fresh off being handed one of the best developments he could have hoped for, Alan Grayson has decided to attack a Politico Reporter to remind everybody of why Murphy is still the safer Democratic candidate for FL-Sen. That was followed with his ex-wife accusing him of domestic abuse, because the Florida Democrats are utterly incapable of nominating non-terrible candidates for statewide office that haven’t been to outer space at some point in their lives. At this point I half expect that their 2018 Governor nominee will strangle a cat to death on camera.
WI-8: Outgoing Congressman Reid Ribble (R) has endorsed Mike Gallagher to succeed him.
Racism: David French has made a rather interesting point about why the democrat’s attacks on Trump have been so unsuccessful: They’ve gone so overboard with the racism and “destroying our democracy” charges that once they came up against someone who could actually get endorsed by David Duke, they have nothing left to throw at him. They’ve cried wolf so many times that Americans have stopped believing that wolves exist. Let’s be honest, would the Democrat be treating Marco Rubio the 2016 GOP nominee any differently?
Terrorism: Another radical Islamic attack on the West happened yesterday, as a pair of terrorists slit the throat of a Normandy priest. The real story here isn’t the actual attack of course (Or even that one of the terrorists was supposed to be under house arrest at the time), but how distressingly normal this has all become to everyone. Western Europe isn’t quite to Belfast 1975 levels of numbness to political violence yet, but it’s getting there. We might want to start creating a template tool for these attacks to save time as well. Two Islamic Terrorists attacked a church yesterday, killing one.
UK: Theresa May continues to poll well, with the Tories posting a 16-point lead over the Labor party in the latest poll. Modeling a crude uniform swing, this puts the Tories at close to 375 Seats, but its worth noting how broadly the Tories seem to be polling. The Conservatives are up in every region except Scotland, and by a high single-digits margin even in the normally safe Labor Northern England and Wales. The closest comparison I can find from the 2015 polling had the Tories down 13 in the North and 4 in Wales when they were up by 7 nationwide, which would suggest that May has been able to pull a lot of the Labor Brexiters into the Tory Camp, at least for now.
May: In an incredibly amusing result, a separate UK poll has found that Corbyn has a 26% lead on Theresa May on the metric of who would be a better Prime Minister . . . among Brits planning to vote Labor. Ouch.