In the immortal words of Michael Cohen, “Which polls?” and “Says who?” Let’s get to who in today’s afternoon roundup.
President & National:
NY-Pres: First up in polls where Donald Trump is down is Siena, conducted last week among registered voters in the Empire State. He trails Clinton there 50%-25% with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 6%. If you were wondering, no this would not be the worst ever performance of a major party presidential candidate in their home state. User roguemapper informs us that would be the intrepid John C Fremont back in 1856. He took a little less than 20% in his home state of California during the first Republican presidential campaign with former US President Millard Fillmore on the ballot as a third party candidate. Mind you, Trump gets these numbers even as 60% of voters say they do not believe Hillary is trustworthy, but that’s what happens when 69% think Trump is untrustworthy too (73% think Trump is not qualified to be commander in chief as well).
National: Looking at those numbers, it’s important to note that the voters are not all in a “POX ON BOTH THEIR HOUSES” mentality. Instead, there is only so much overlap between people who rate Trump unfavorable and Clinton unfavorable. In fact, an analysis of numbers from SurveyMonkey shows 87% prefer one candidate over another. Nevertheless, the 10% who *do* hate both candidates make an interesting swing demographic, as the article notes.
National: Pew has a new national poll out with Clinton 41%, Trump 37%, Johnson 10%, Stein 4% and DK/Other 7
VA-Pres: Here’s another poll for Mr. Cohen where Trump is down. In Virginia, the Washington Post went in last weekend and found Trump trails Hillary 38%-52% among registered voters, winning only in the southwest region of the state. Among likely voters, the race narrows to 51%-43%. FWIW, when the third party candidates are thrown in Johnson takes 11% and Stein 4%.
National: I saved the best for last. In a bold attempt at unskewing the LAMEstream media’s cooked polls,
Trump Media Breitbart teamed up with the prestigious Republican polling firm Gravis (salt! salt!) to conduct a one-day poll of 2800 likely voters (nice on the sample size, huh on the timing?). The result? Clinton leads Trump 42%-37%, with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 3%.
GA-Pres: Opinion Savvy poll of Georgia has the formerly solidly red state as a tossup deadheat with Trump and Clinton both tied at 43% with Gary Johnson at 11% and 3% undecided. Green Party candidate Jill Stein will not be on the ballot in the state of Georgia. Key finding here is that 47% of Georgia voters believe it is “likely” that a US Presidential election could be rigged and that a candidate could be declared a winner of a state they actually lose.
NV-Pres: Suffolk University poll of Nevada has Hillary Clinton leading by 2 points 44% to Donald Trump’s 42% with Gary Johnson at 5% and None of these candidates (which is an option on the ballot in Nevada) at 3%. Jill Stein is not on the ballot in Nevada and the state does not allow write in votes.
FL-Pres: Finally a poll the Trumpkins can be happy about! The latest PPP Florida poll has Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton 74% to 9% with Jill Stein at 3% and Gary Johnson at 1%! Of course this is a very funny hoax parody of a PPP poll that someone put together for laughs. We figured you all would enjoy reading it.
NV-Sen: The Senate portion of the Suffolk University poll has Republican Joe Heck and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto tied at 37% a piece with undecided at 15%.
AZ-5: Two new polls are out in this open-seat primary race, and they agree that the contest is definitely up for grabs. An independent survey from Highground Consulting shows State Sen. Andy Biggs (R) leading 2014 gubernatorial candidate and tech exec Christine Jones (R) 22-20, with Maricopa County Supervisor Don Stapley (R) and State Rep. Justin Olson (R) close behind at 17 and 14 respectively. An internal for Stapley from Data Orbital has Jones leading him 22-19, Biggs tying Stapley at 19, and Olson at 14.
FL-18: An internal (salt) for Brian Mast’s Republican primary campaign in this open seat unsurprisingly finds his own campaign leading the race. The two week old poll of likely Republican primary voters found Mast at 39%, Rebecca Negron at 19%, Mark Freeman at 18%, and Carl Domino at 10%. However, it’s hard to see Mast out to a twenty-point lead when certain candidates either have a much bigger profile (Negron, Domino) or a lot more money (Freeman) than him. Of course we don’t have any crosstabs or even a one-page release, nor do we have any presidential numbers as sometimes get shared with these types of authorized leaks.
NY-3: DCCC released an internal poll showing Democrat Tom Suozzi leading Republican Jack Martins 52 percent to 36 percent and Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in the district, 51 percent to 35 percent. I call BS on this one. Other polls have shown a much tighter race and this seems like an effort to troll Martin and the GOP on the heels of a federal judge forcing an October 6th GOP primary upon the GOP.
State & Local:
Fresno: A poll from SUSA for local TV station KFSN has this race razor-tight, with Fresno County Supervisor Henry Perea Sr. (D) leading city councilman Lee Brand (R) 46-44. Fresno is light-blue, but despite the Mayor’s office being up in presidential elections, Fresno last elected a Democratic mayor in the 80s.