10:27 ET: Moving to a 2nd thread!
10:20 ET: 81% in, and Trump’s leading Rubio by 1.4%. Rubio’s been cutting thousands off of Trump’s vote totals all night, but it might not be enough Linn and Dubuque counties are the laggers right now, both <5% Romney counties in 2012. On the D side, Clinton is up 1 point with 82% Counted.
10:11 ET: Trump’s down to a 1.7% lead over Rubio, or about 3,000 votes. With 78% of the precincts in, this will come down to the wire.
10:04 ET: Trump down to 24.7% to Rubio’s 22.6% with 72% of the precincts in. Trump is seriously looking at a 3rd place finish right now. Also, Rubio is close to the lead in Polk County, only .6% behind Cruz there
10:00 ET: We now have reports that Martin O’Malley is dropping out, after being dealt one of the most humiliating defeats in primary history. He is probably going to wind up with less than half the votes of any Republican not named Gilmore (who has reached double-digit # of votes now).
9:57 ET: Assuming Rubio continues to creep up on Trump (2.8% now), how do any of the Kasich/Bush/Christie/Fiorina group justify staying in the race? Their margins are probably all going to be enough individually to have put the Don in 3rd place.
9:53 ET: Trump’s 2nd place lead now down to 3.2% with 61% in. At this rate he’ll probably still be in 2nd but it’ll be close.
9:47 ET: Cruz winds Hardin County by about 10, close to Santorum’s margin over Romney there in 2012. Trump’s lead over Rubio is down to 3.8% . . .
9:44 ET: 53% in, and Trump’s 2nd place lead is down to 4%. Clinton’s lead is also down to 2 points, but 67% of the D precincts are in.
9:40 ET: And since I typed that, Trump’s 2nd-place-lead is now down to 4.4% with 48% of the precincts in.
9:39 ET: The Don is continuing to gradually slide away from Cruz and towards Rubio. He’s now behind Rubio in Polk County, and only up 5 on him statewide. A 3rd place Trump finish is not out of the cards yet, especially as it looks like Trump and not Cruz is the one under-performing in the bigger counties.
9:35 ET: Rubio is now over 20% of the vote, within 6 points of the Don, with 40% in. Cruz still leading by 3 points.
9:34 ET: Something I completely missed is that in the Microsoft Maps, if you click on the counties, they give you maps of that county’s precincts. We can actually zoom in to tell what parts of Polk County have already voted. I knew I was a PC guy for a reason!
9:31 ET: Most amusing result of the night so far is that Martin O’Malley is doing worse than almost every single Republican running, with .5%. He’s only saved from last place by Jim Gilmore’s 4 votes.
9:22 ET: Audubon County is now fully in for the GOP, and went 36-26-15 Cruz-Trump-Rubio. Western Iowa. For Reference, it was 24-22-18-14 Santorum-Romney-Paul-Gingrich in 2012.
9:17 ET: Clinton down to a 3 point lead with 45% in . . and Clinton’s counties are more in than Sanders’s.
9:14 ET: GOP race currently at 30% Cruz, 27.3% Trump, 18.7% Rubio, 10% Carson, everyone else irrelevant. 18% of Precincts in, but mostly the smallest ones, so could be unrepresentative.
9:09 ET: Sanders closing in on Clinton, now down only 4 points with 34% in. Don’t count him out yet.
9:03 ET: Reports are coming in that Gilmore has actually won 2 votes. I’d almost like to meet these people now.
8:58 ET: Taking a look at the D side now, CLinton is up 6 points on Sanders with about 23% in. Sanders could still win but it looks unlikely at this point.
8:52 ET: CBS has issued an updated Entrance poll, and Cruz is ahead 28-25-23 over Trump and Rubio.
8:48 ET: The results coming in are looking better for Cruz (who is narrowly ahead) and worse for Trump (in 2nd place) and Rubio (in a distant 3rd). Still barely anything in though.
8:39 ET: First results are starting to come in. Trickles now, but the point to a Clinton win and a GOP crapshoot.
8:26 ET: Both CNN and CBS have issued slight revisions to their entrance polls, both of which have now Rubio narrowly in 2nd place over Cruz.
8:19 ET: CBS Entrance poll has Trump at 28%, Cruz at 23%, Rubio at 22%, Caron at 10%, and Bush at 4%.
8:10 ET: CNN Entrance Poll Results here. Trump, Cruz, and Rubio form the top tier in the 20s, Carson is at around 10%, and no one else is above 4%. Bush could be looking at 8th place too, with only Kasich and Santorum placing under him.
8:06 ET: Reports coming in from he CBS entrance polls have the race approximately 30% Trump, 22% Cruz, 20% Rubio, no one else close. CNN is showing similar numbers.
8:00 ET: The 2016 Election has officially started! The Iowa Caucuses have officially kicked off, and we should be getting results between 1 and 2 hours from now. In the meantime, feel free to post the entrance poll results here as well.
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