Note that we will have an open thread for tonight’s debate starting at 8; the debate will air at 9 ET on all major networks. But in the mean time we have a torrent of poll dumps to get to…
CBS/YouGov: Clinton 44 Trump 41 Johnson 5 Stein 2
ABC/WaPo: Clinton 46 Trump 44 Johnson 5 Stein 1
Morning Consult: Trump 39 Clinton 38 Johnson 9 Stein 4
Franklin Pierce Univ/Boston Herald: Clinton 45 Trump 43 Johnson 6 Stein 2
McClatchy/Marist: Clinton 45 Trump 39 Johnson 10 Stein 4
Reuters: Clinton 41 Trump 36 Johnson 7 Stein 2
Breitbart/Gravis: Clinton 44 Trump 40 Johnson 5 Stein 2
AP/GFK: Clinton 41 Trump 35 Johnson 7 Stein 2
NBC/WSJ: Clinton 43 Trump 37 Johnson 9 Stein 2
Pew: Clinton 45 Trump 38 Johnson 10 Stein 4
President-States & Senate:
AZ/CA/NV/WA: The first of two multi-state poll dumps comes from InsightsWest, which has Trump up 46-41 in Arizona and 47-44 in Nevada; Hillary leads by large margins in California and Washington. The Senate portion of the poll shows Rep. Joe Heck (R) leading ex-AG Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) 50-45 in Nevada and AG Kamala Harris (D) leading Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) 58-38 in California. Sen. Patty Murray (D) holds a huge lead in Washington.
CO/GA/IA/VA: Another multi-state poll dump from Quinnipiac has Trump up 47-40 in Georgia and 44-37 in Iowa, while Clinton leads 45-39 in Virginia and 44-42 in Colorado. Senate incumbents Michael Bennet (D-CO), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) lead by double-digits.
CO/MO/VA: And yet another multi-state dump comes from CBS/YouGov with Clinton up 40-39 in CO, 45-37 in VA, and Trump up 46-37 in MO.
Colorado/Ohio: Breitbart/Gravis has Trump leading 41-37 in Colorado and 43-42 in Ohio. For Senate, El Paso County commissioner Darryl Glenn (R) leads Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 45-43, while Sen. Rob Portman (R) leads ex-Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 44-36.
Arkansas: TalkBusiness has Trump with a predictably massive 55-34 lead. It appears Senate numbers were not tested.
Colorado: Colorado Mesa University has Clinton leading 44-35 while Sen. Bennet (D) leads Glenn (R) 45-32.
Florida: Suffolk has Trump leading 45-44 while Sen. Marco Rubio (R) leads Rep. Fratrick Murphy (D) 43-34.
Georgia #1: Landmark/WSB-TV has Trump leading Clinton 47-43 with Johnson at 6.
Georgia #2: A Monmouth poll has Trump up 45-42 while Sen. Johnny Isakson (D) leads businessman Jim Barksdale (D) 50-34.
Georgia #3: JMC Analytics has Trump leading Clinton 44-38 while Isakson leads Barksdale 41-28 (yeesh, push your undecideds).
Maryland: Goucher College has Clinton up 58-25. Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) leads State Rep. Kathy Szeliga (R) 54-24.
Nevada: Fox News has Trump up 39-38 while Heck (R) leads Cortez-Masto (D) 41-34.
New Hampshire: Monmouth has Clinton up 47-38 while Republicans do well downballot: Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) leads Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 47-45 for Senate while Executive Councilor Chris Sununu (R) leads fellow EC Colin Van Ostern (D) 49-43 for Governor.
North Carolina: Fox News has Trump up 43-39 while Sen. Richard Burr (R) leads ex-State Rep. Deborah Ross (D) 43-37.
Ohio: Fox News has Trump up 40-37 while Sen. Rob Portman (R) leads ex-Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 51-37.
Pennsylvania: Muhlenberg/Morning Call has Clinton leading Trump 40-38 with Johnson at 8 and Stein at 5. Sen. Pat Toomey (R) posts a 41-40 lead on Gov. Wolf CoS Katie McGinty (D) for the Senate race.
Utah: Salt Lake Tribune/Hinckley has Trump at 34, Clinton at 25, Johnson at 13, and McMullin at 12 (!). As a Johnson supporter I really think he’s missed an opportunity here – if he tacked to the right and/or got McMullin to drop out and endorse him he’d have a legit shot at winning Utah.
Wisconsin: Marquette has Hillary leading Trump 44-42 while ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D) leads Sen. Ron Johnson (R) 47-41.
Generic Ballot: Reuters has it at D+5, 41-36.
FL-7: A DCCC internal by Global Strategy Group has Rep. John Mica (R) leading professor Stephanie Murphy (D) 48-45.
ME-2: An internal for ex-State Sen. Emily Cain (D) has her tied with Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) at 45. Trump leads Clinton 44-40 in the district, which will allocate an electoral vote. And for a rebuttal to that poll, UNH has Poliquin up 45-35 while Trump leads by 15 points.
NE-2: An internal for Rep. Brad Ashford (D) has him leading retired general Don Bacon (R) 50-40. Clinton and Trump are tied in the district, which will award an electoral vote.
NY-19: A DCCC internal shows 2014 gubernatorial candidate Zephyr Teachout (D) leading ex-State Rep. John Faso (R) 47-42. A prior Faso internal had him up five for this purple seat.
State & Local:
WV-Gov: An internal for State Sen. Bill Cole (R) shows him trailing businessman Jim Justice (D) 44-42.
Harris County, TX: A University of Houston survey of Harris County (covering the bulk of the Houston Metro area, population 4.3M and PVI R+2), shows Clinton leads 43-39. Republicans hold narrow leads for Sheriff and DA.
Long Island: A Newsday/Siena poll of Long Island (Nassau and Suffolk Counties) has Trump up 43-39, which could be good news for GOP downaballot candidates for the House and State Senate. Non-NYC Long Island has historically had a PVI near the EVEN mark but it seems like it will head into R+ territory this year.
VA-Gov ’17: A fairly useless poll confirms that the GOP primary for this seat is very unsettled. Ex-RNC chair Ed Gillespie (R) leads the field with 19%, with State Sen. Frank Wagner (R) in second with 11, Rep. Rob Wittman (R) at 8 and Prince William CE Corey Stewart (R) at 6. The winner will face LG Ralph Northam (D).