Political Roundup for October 14, 2016

Welcome to the Trumpocalypse. We’ve warned you for over a year that this would happen and we hate being right.

President:

Trump: WTF GOP? WTF, WTF, WTF, WTF, WTF, WTF, WTF, WTF, WTF!!!!

Trump: Business Insider looks at how Donald Trump may have used an unintentional tax loophole known as the “Gitlitz loophole” to be able to use a S-Corp pass through to deduct loses his bank and investors took from his own personal taxes without having to offset their debt forgiveness as income. In essence the loophole would allow him to deduct from his taxes as loss money other people have lost. The Gitlitz loophole was the subject of 2001 Supreme Court ruling and the unintentional loophole was fixed in 2002. Of course whether Donald Trump legally used this loophole or illegally did something else is all the subject of speculation since Donald Trump has refused to release his income taxes.

Hillary: As Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave special attention to “Friends of Bill”. This kind of thing might have mattered if the GOP did not nominate a narcissistic fraud who like to use his power and fame to sexually assault woman. In fact in an alternative universe I’m certain that this story and the dozens like it is such a scandal that the Democrats are in the process of Torricelliing Hillary off the ticket in favor of Joe Biden.

McMullin: With a second poll showing Evan McMullin polling over 20% there is a real chance that he could win Utah and become the first 3rd party candidate to win a state’s electoral votes since George Wallace did it 48 years ago. Redstate just endorsed him (Does that make them Greenstate or whatever color they will be using for McMullin?). McMullin is only on the ballot in 11 states but will probably be an eligible write-in candidate in at least 30 more states (see here).

Senate:

CO-Sen: Darry Glenn (R) has a pretty awesome 3 1/2 minute Youtube bio ad that starts out looking like a Nike commercial. It is a shame Glenn has been unable to raise money which confines good content like this to Youtube.

IN-Sen: Evan Bayh could be worth as much as $48 million! How did the former Senator make his fortune? Did he build a business, inherit it from a relative, win the lottery or get stock options in a great internet start up? No! He simply spent 5 1/2 years selling access in Washington. When Bayh left the US Senate and his $174,000 a year salary in 2011 his net worth was between $2.1 and $7.7 million. Now it is between $13.9 million to $48 million. I guess shopping your resume to K Street while you are still sitting in the US Senate really does pay!

NV-Sen: Ever wonder where your tax dollars go? Apparently to Planned Parenthood to spend seven figures on an ad buy attacking Joe Heck (R) in the Nevada senate race. Yes I know money spent on the Planned Parenthood’s political action committee is separate from the money they get from the federal government but money is fungible. If Planned Parenthood has the ability to raise and spend millions of dollars on TV ads attacking Joe Heck then they should be able to raise and spend money on “women’s heath” without the help of the taxpayers. Call me old fashion but I have a serious problem with a group who gets millions of dollars from the government turning around and spending money to attack candidates who oppose their funding.

UT-Sen: Senator Mike Lee (R) debated a dude wearing a dress for 45 minutes because it is 2016.

WI-Sen: James O’Keefe catches Democrat senate candidate Russ Feingold on hidden camera at a swanky Silicon Valley fundraiser talking about how a President Hillary Clinton could use executive action to restrict 2nd Amendment rights and how Feingold could help support her in passing gun control laws.

House:

CA-10:  The Republican super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund will spend $2 million on behalf of Rep. Jeff Denham (R) who won his R+1 district by 12 points in 2014 and 5 points in 2012.

CO-3: You know Republicans are worried about the Trumpocalypse when they are dropping $1.3 million into shoring up Rep. Scott Tipton (R) in this R+5 district. Tipton won by 22 points in 2014 and by 12 points in 2012. The Republican aligned Congressional Leadership Fund will begin running ads on Tipton’s behalf starting October 20th.

CO-6: The NRCC wants voters to know that Democrat Morgan Carroll voted to allow welfare recipients to spend their government benefits at strip clubs and marijuana dispensaries.

FL-13: Because Charlie Crist (R,I,D) is a liar he’s got the DCCC backing him by running an ad with a fabricated image of Rep David Jolly (R) and Donald Trump. The DCCC ad has a photo-shopped image of Jolly and Trump shaking hands even though the two have never met. The DCCC ad basically stuck Jolly’s head on somebody else’s body and Jolly wants TV stations to stop running the ad. While an image of Jolly and Trump standing together might not exist a simple Google search can find plenty of images of Donald Trump and Charlie Crist as you can see HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE or you can see Trump’s signature on those checks Donald Trump has written to Charlie Crist’s campaigns over the years.

FL-18: Here is another ad reminding voters that Democrat Randy Perkins is a crook who ripped off a school district for Hurricane Wilma repair work.

FL-26: Former Rep. Joe Garica (D) loves Obamacare. He brags about helping protect it in his own ad! If Garcia wants to spend his own campaign money to repeat NRCC talking points that is fine with us. Hopefully his next ad will talk about his love for Fidel Castro style communism (here) or simply a 30 second loop of THIS.

IL-10: The Environmental Defense Fund’s campaign arm is launching a $250,000 ad buy on behalf of Republican Rep. Bob Dold. This is significant because the EDF usually supports Democrats.

KS-3: The DCCC is reserving TV ad time on behalf of “investment adviser” Jay Sidie (D). Sidie barely won the Democrat primary with a mere 41%. The district is R+6 but polling has shown Donald Trump doing horribly here. The DCCC decision to go into KS-3 comes shortly after a story broke that neither “investment adviser” Sidie nor his so-called company Counterpunch Financial was ever registered to provide investment advice in the state of Kansas (see here).

UT-4: Rep. Mia Love raised $1.4 million in the 3rd quarter. She spent $1.7 million and has $1.2 million cash on hand. Love was recently endorsed by the NRA, has refused to endorse Donald Trump and had a fairly contentious debate Monday night with her Democrat opponent Doug Owens.

State, Local & Other:

IL-Comptroller: Comptroller Leslie Munger (D) released an ad Wednesday tying her Democrat opponent, Mike Madigan puppet and Chicago City Clerk Susana Mendoza to Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan.

AR-Casino Gaming Amendment: The Arkansas Supreme Court has  pulled an amendment that would allow casino operations in three Arkansas counties from the November ballot ruling. Supporters and opponents of the casino amendment had spent more than $2 million to air television ads on the issue ahead of the November election before the court ruling. The Court also reject an amendment on tort reform which would have limited damages in lawsuits against nursing homes and other health care providers and has allowed a medical marijuana initiative to proceed to voters.

Marijuana legalization: Voters in nine states will decide next month whether to relax their laws governing medical or recreational marijuana use. The results of these ballot propositions could have a dramatic effect on the politics of marijuana prohibition.

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225 Comments

  • roguemapper October 14, 2016 at 6:16 am

    The New York Times responds to the Donald.

    “The essence of a libel claim, of course, is the protection of one’s reputation. Mr. Trump has bragged about his non-consensual sexual touching of women. He has bragged about intruding on beauty pageant contestants in their dressing rooms. He acquiesced to a radio host’s request to discuss Mr. Trump’s own daughter as a “piece of ass.” Multiple women not mentioned in our article have publicly come forward to report on Mr. Trump’s unwanted advances. Nothing in our article has had the slightest effect on the reputation that Mr. Trump, through is own words and actions, has already created for himself.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/13/us/politics/david-mccraw-trump-letter.html


    Dem NC-11

  • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 6:52 am

    Oh!! That’s a heck of an introduction!


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 6:58 am

      The entire roundup is fire!


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • GerGOP October 14, 2016 at 7:02 am

        I was wondering who wrote that while reading it. I first thought it was Ryan, but there wasn’t enough snark. Izengabe was the next logical choice.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA October 14, 2016 at 7:57 am

          We had some scheduling snafus this week which impacted two of the polling threads, but we had probably one of the best weeks for morning roundups being on fire.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

          • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 10:09 am

            I don’t want the roundups to be on fire. I want the roundups to be an overabundance of joy at the impending conservative GOP trifecta that was going to take over Washington in 2017 and fix the out of control federal government. Instead 40% of the GOP primary electorate got conned and we have the current s**tshow brought to you by a reality TV star and the alt-right clowns at Brietbart. So yeah, I am on fire because some of the best an brightest in the GOP like Toomey, Heck, Dold and others could lose because we nominated a presidential candidate who spent his life screwing creditors and trying to screw every women he saw.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 1:51 pm

              And I hope people click on all the WTFs and read the linked stories. As I was writing the roundup yesterday and scouring for things to add I was really sickened by the whole think. This is the last thing I want to be reading about the Republican candidate for President 25 days before the election. To think that the “October Surprise” used to be things like the 47% comment or an old DUI makes me sad for what our politics have become this year. The fact that this exist:
              https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/786733379567820800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
              makes me want to cry.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

              • OGGoldy October 14, 2016 at 2:16 pm

                Oh that is definitely going to find its way into the Halloween scene around the country.

            • District101 October 14, 2016 at 6:06 pm

              Dold would probably have lost anyways, because Schneider is a good fit, no one would have given up on this race, the presidential race would have been the same as in between 2008 and 2012 pretty much, and autocorrect is trying to correct Dold to Told. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dold come back and win this district in 2018. Then Schneider returns in 2020. And Dold is back in 2022. Schneider defeats Dold in 2024, and you get the idea.


              Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

              • krazen1211 October 14, 2016 at 9:15 pm

                ‘A good fit’ for the district isn’t really one that loses half the time. But your side will gerrymander the district better if it can in 2022, or the district will become more GOP via growth, so the cycle will break then one way or another.

  • MouthofSauron October 14, 2016 at 7:03 am

    My Granddad in North Carolina said he had been polled Monday by CNN…so if he’s right we’re probably due for some CNN polls today.

  • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 7:04 am

    Our @WBUR NH poll
    Clinton 41
    Trump 38
    Johnson 11
    Stein 3
    .
    2-way
    Clinton 46
    Trump 41
    .
    Ayotte 47
    Hassan 47
    Oct 10-12 https://t.co/pYxoILAlQQ


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 7:05 am

      Van Ostern up 3.


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • andyroo312 October 14, 2016 at 8:41 am

        Yup. Sadly, I’ve been skeptical all along Sununu could win this.


        MA-7

    • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 8:15 am

      But but but Trumpocalypse


      R/NC-4.

      • District101 October 14, 2016 at 6:36 pm

        Van Ostern is up 3 too, first poll he’s been ahead in. That means something. However, don’t think that Van Ostern is running even with Clinton, most likely behind.


        Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

  • RTHK October 14, 2016 at 7:09 am

    NJ-05: Meg Whitman endorses Gottheimer (D)

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/hewlett-packards-whitman-shakes-up-new-jersey-house-race-1476147040

    • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 8:45 am

      She really wants that Commerce slot


      R/NC-4.

  • Ryan_in_SEPA October 14, 2016 at 7:56 am

    Clinton up 15% among college educated whites, 29 point swing from 2012: http://www.wsj.com/articles/voters-education-level-a-driving-force-this-election-1476401440?mod=e2fb

    This is the sign of death.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • roguemapper October 14, 2016 at 8:04 am

      Speaking of signs of death: Revenge of the White Working-Class Woman.

      “If you look at the white working class—Americans without a college degree—the majority, 53 percent, are women”

      “They supported Romney by a margin of 20 points in 2012, according to an analysis by the public affairs research firm AGC Research, and now, going off of that post-video poll alone, they’re equally split between Trump and Clinton at 40 percent.”


      Dem NC-11

      • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 8:18 am

        You mean that working women don’t like to be raped? Seriously?


        28, M, R, NY-10

        • OGGoldy October 14, 2016 at 8:46 am

          I really hope that wasn’t a “working girls” veiled joke…

          • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 8:49 am

            Oy! No


            28, M, R, NY-10

  • krazen1211 October 14, 2016 at 8:15 am

    Some Rubio news.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/14/rubio_sticks_with_trump_murphy_needs_momentum.html

    The good thing for him is that the Trumpistas are willing vote for Rubio because Rubio didn’t become one of those mad fool Judas Republicans. He will need them in the 2020 primary.

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 8:17 am

      Looks like Ayotte didn’t hurt herself with coming out against Trump with the 2 new polls.


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • reedc October 14, 2016 at 8:24 am

        Or Heck.

      • aggou October 14, 2016 at 8:26 am

        I think it depends upon the state.

        Each candidate has probably polled so many times to see if they could do one or the other, and which would hurt more or less.

        Which I’m fine with. Do whatever is necessary to win, and then we will work through the Trump core voters after he loses.

        • Left Coast Libertarian October 14, 2016 at 11:17 am

          There’s a difficult balancing act candidates have to do to make sure they don’t lose the Republican base or the Trumpets. There are likely more revelations about Trump coming out. They’ve done a good job so far, but things could go bad. Trump naming any of these people as one of his enemies could really hurt.

    • roguemapper October 14, 2016 at 8:19 am

      “Remember when the GOP said it had this great ground game in Florida? Yeah. The Florida Dems are beating the GOP in voter-registration forms submitted by 503,000 to 60,000.” http://tinyurl.com/gq4q8xb


      Dem NC-11

      • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 8:22 am

        Those aren’t the total new registration numbers. Those are just the ones submitted by the party committees. The registration statistics aren’t nearly that dramatic.


        R/NC-4.

        • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 10:17 am

          yup some people buy whatever the Ds are selling on voter registration stats. In Florida, like most other states, many democratic voters think they have to re-register every year so they fill out a form every time they see a table setup. Then a week a later because they have not received a new card they fill out a form again. In Georgia this did not happen in 2014

          http://www.democracynow.org/2014/11/4/40_000_voters_missing_in_georgia

          Actually so far in real changes in Florida 2016 the GOP has gained on the Ds among new voters-real new voters.

          • District101 October 14, 2016 at 6:38 pm

            Are you serious about those voters? Don’t like to insult voter, but…


            Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

            • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 6:49 pm

              Absolutely serious. I have worked voter registration tables and there is a tremendous confusion among the casual once every four year voter.

              Generally speaking D registration efforts involve more table work but the GOP around did it in the 1980s around here.

              I might add voters lose voter registration cards all the time and frankly many voters around a lot. So frankly if you are not sure its actually a good idea to just fill out another form if you are in doubt. I have done it for voters. In the old days you had to have a witness and I witnessed many a form for people in doubt as to whether they are registered.

              Republicans just don’t tend to set up tables in public spots and try to registering anyone. They target. Legally if you are setup in the public to register voters you must register everyone regardless of party choice. So yes many “new voters” tend to be either duplicates or change of address.

        • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 10:24 am

          The point is the Democrat part committee and their ground game is kicking the GOP’s butt. Trump’s whole campaign strategy is based on turning out the missing non-college educated white voter. In order to do that someone actually needs to register those people to vote. Since Trump has no ground game no one is doing that in Florida. Yes the overall registration statistics are not that dramatic. The point is they would be dramatically in the GOP’s favor if the GOP had a ground game in FL capable of registering 500,000 new voters. If there is a Trumpocalypse it is because Trump didnt have a campaign operation in place capable of bringing a half million new GOP voters the way the Democrats did.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 10:43 am

            My point is that Politico is not a real news source for what is going on in Florida or any other state for that matter. I could call them up and give made up statistics for the state of TN and Politico might just post them on their site this way “democratic sources inform me that 500K new D voters have been registered by the Hillary campaign in the state”. So as far as this matter is concerned here are my simple points.

            1st Politico quotes the numbers 503K to 60K without any attribution. Who came up with those numbers?
            2nd as point of fact counties in Florida do not keep exact numbers as to who submits forms-whether its done by the party or outside groups or civic or whoever. Its not like a contest where it is easy to determine who has done what in the state.
            3rd no other media outlet in Florida or elsewhere has confirmation of this 503k to 60K number
            4th There has only been +220K increase in D voters in Florida in 2016 so where are the other 280K new D voters? Of course we all know that a lot of voters just register to vote on their own so maybe we are missing 400K voters?

            I have no doubt that Trump is not well organized on the ground in Florida but this number is just trash.

          • Republican Michigander October 14, 2016 at 2:01 pm

            ” If there is a Trumpocalypse it is because Trump didnt have a campaign operation in place capable of bringing a half million new GOP voters the way the Democrats did.” – That was my fear BEFORE the Billy Bush tape.


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 8:45 am

        More like Republican voters know the directions on how to register themselves without the party helping them.


        28, M, R, NY-10

    • reedc October 14, 2016 at 8:26 am

      Lol. Judas Republicans?

      There we go conflating Trump with God again…it really is a cult.

    • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 10:41 am

      I’m actually OK with Rubio’s endorsement with faint praise. I wish more Republicans who feel obligated to endorse Trump did it Rubio’s way. He starts off any discussion of Trump by criticizing him, making it a point to stand by everything he said about Trump in the primary, saying he did everything possible to nominated anyone but Trump and ending it my saying he believes we have to beat Hillary Clinton. Rubio never drinks the Kool-aid. He simply acknowledges the binary choice and choose the lesser of two evils. While I would prefer out right condemnation and #NeverTrump principal I can understand and forgive this position. In fact if it helps him and other GOP candidates in tough races get re-elected I am even OK. This is not the same as going Full Christie and embarrassing yourself or being an early endorser like Chris Collins or making a fool of yourself like Ted Cruz or Deb Fischer.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 8:20 am

    Trumpocalypse is not happening yet. It’s been a week since the grabbing tape, more than enough time for campaign committees groups to come back with polling. And yet there hasn’t been a triaging of a single new Republican candidate and the DCCC is still spending in seats like IL-10 and FL-13.


    R/NC-4.

    • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 8:38 am

      Also those rumored Georgia and Arizona Hillary ad buys never happened and PUSA still hasn’t waded into any Senate races. Nobody has reversed course and bought FLSen time. CLF just threw several million at defeating Bera.


      R/NC-4.

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 8:48 am

      The Trumpocalypse was always going to be about depressed Republican turnout and a surge in turnout from the majority. We won’t know this until election night.


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 9:10 am

        Until Hillary starts reliably cracking 50 you can’t call her voters the majority


        R/NC-4.

    • californianintexas October 14, 2016 at 9:35 am

      We also still have more than 3 weeks until all the ballots are cast, and we Americans have an attention span smaller than that of a gnat.


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 10:43 am

      All this is assuming that there isnt a lot more even worst stuff coming. My point was look how much stuff dropped on Trump in the last 2 days. Expect a lot more.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • District101 October 14, 2016 at 6:56 pm

      HMP just had a killer ad in IL-10 here against Dold. I still fail to compute how Schneider lost in 2014.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

  • shamlet October 14, 2016 at 8:30 am

    For the Garcia thing, the ad probably makes sense. South Florida is probably the only place where the term “Obamacare” has some positive connotations because there’s a huge industry in Dade of medical scammers that have made a killing on it. You can’t spend an hour in Dade County without seeing or hearing an ad that says “sign up for Obamacare now!” or “you deserve your Obamacare benefits and we can get them for you!” or something similar. I’m not exactly sure why this kind of thing has taken hold so uniquely and pervasively in Miami (it’s also the nation’s capital for Medicare fraud) but it probably is enough to change the public perception of the term Obamacare significantly relative to the rest of the country.


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet October 14, 2016 at 8:32 am

    McMullin’s “color” kinda has to be Orange, no? Everything else is taken.


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • OGGoldy October 14, 2016 at 8:45 am

      Orange is clearly already taken by Trump.

      Perhaps McMullen would be better as a taupe, or perhaps a gentile mauve.

      • shamlet October 14, 2016 at 8:49 am

        Your neutralness, it’s a beige alert!


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 12:47 pm

        I like MauveState! If Redstate doesnt rename to that we may have to steal it.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • rdw72777 October 14, 2016 at 8:38 am

    Liz Warren needs a hobby. Tennis? Even when I agree with her she just seeems to go overboard with dramatics…in this case the timing is a bit silly.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/14/sen-elizabeth-warren-urges-president-obama-to-designate-new-sec-chair.html

    • edtorres04 October 14, 2016 at 8:47 am

      She actually has a hobby. She flips foreclosed homes for profit, and then uses those profits to purchase the 6 million dollar mansion that she lives in.

    • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 9:11 am

      Her hobby is Standing Up For The Middle Class!


      R/NC-4.

      • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 9:13 am

        Be happy that Dems didn’t nominate her, because she would have been elected against Trump.


        28, M, R, NY-10

        • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 9:19 am

          We probably would have had a Bloomberg candidacy if she had won the nom though.


          R/NC-4.

          • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 9:22 am

            Corporations would be combusting…


            28, M, R, NY-10

  • RogueBeaver October 14, 2016 at 8:44 am

    Politico on Ryan’s post-election options: right now soldiering on looks most likely. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/paul-ryan-future-donald-trump-collapse-229756

    NYT on donor grumbling. Also notes that Reince may face competition from Borges et al if he runs for reelection in January. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/14/us/politics/republican-donors-trump.html?_r=3&mtrref=t.co&gwh=72D00AB385830BAEBFFA4CDB8483A766&gwt=pay


    QC/Blue Tory/M

  • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 8:45 am

    Trump did not actually apologize to Serbia-that was a hoax. http://www.theatlantic.com/news/archive/2016/10/donald-trump-serbia/503987/


    R/NC-4.

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 8:50 am

      It could have easily been true. He’s said worse things.


      28, M, R, NY-10

  • RRR October 14, 2016 at 9:00 am

    I need to register to vote in New York State today.

    Republican or Independence Party?

    Thinking tactically (and also will not vote Republican again if Trumpkins hijack the party and turn it into an anti-immigration, anti-trade, anti-neoliberalism, anti-growth, misogynistic, bigoted, anti-common sense, authoritarian, and pro-big government, union-loving Labour Party a la Trump).


    NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Scarsdale Test conservative
    Victories can be Pyrrhic

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 9:04 am

      If I’m still registered as a Republican, you can still be registered as a Republican. I’ll only change if the Trumpocalypse Trumpification happens following the election.


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • davybaby October 14, 2016 at 11:45 am

      Party registration isn’t about making a statement; it’s about choosing which primary you can vote in.

      • RRR October 14, 2016 at 12:03 pm

        Well, I know, but the Independence Party line seems to move a few dozen votes in general elections here and there.


        NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Scarsdale Test conservative
        Victories can be Pyrrhic

      • RRR October 14, 2016 at 12:08 pm

        At least there’ll be a mayoral primary next year, and I think one of my favorite politicians (Harry Wilson) will end up running for governor in 2018.


        NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Scarsdale Test conservative
        Victories can be Pyrrhic

    • RRR October 14, 2016 at 12:02 pm

      Doesn’t have what after this year?


      NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Scarsdale Test conservative
      Victories can be Pyrrhic

    • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 12:58 pm

      Whatever you do do not register with the Independence Party of New York! They are a fraud run by the Fulani folks and being associated with that party will be a black mark on your record forever!
      Read this for more on the insanity:
      http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/lunacy-helm-article-1.1216680


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 1:04 pm

      If you want to be mischievous register as a Reform Party member and you can file petitions to create your own primaries in which you will most likely be the only voter and you can choose to write-in whoever you want to be the party’s nominee!
      See here:
      http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/albany-pols-blame-money-wasting-primary-system-article-1.2645792


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Merrimackman October 14, 2016 at 3:31 pm

      Stick with the GOP. Can’t let the Trumpistas take over the party that easy


      R, RI-2

  • aggou October 14, 2016 at 9:07 am

    New mail-in ballots today are pointing to less enthusiasm than what was once thought.

    R’s have been behind their ’12 numbers the entire time, but D’s have now fallen ever so slightly behind their ’12 numbers and UNA are just ahead of their numbers.

    The lag could be due to the storm, but both R and D counties have been hurt by it.

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 9:10 am

      How is western NC doing? That’s how you judge if Matthew is the cause.


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • aggou October 14, 2016 at 9:37 am

        Oh, I know Matthew has some degree with it. Johnston County hasn’t returned an ballots since last Friday.

        Robeson county has yet to return any since last Friday, too. Brunswick returned several today, they at one point had 60% of the county without power.

  • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 9:31 am

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-13/how-republican-rob-portman-may-derail-the-trump-train-in-ohio

    Nice Portman campaign puff piece.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • hfcon October 15, 2016 at 4:18 pm

      This is the explanation behind all of the “How is Portman doing so well” posts. He combined careful planning, good data, and a crafty use of untapped labor (high schoolers) to build up an operation separate from the RNC/Trump campaigns. This would be a good template for other swing-state Rs to follow in 2018–start now, get local, and don’t rely on whatever’s left of the RNC in 2018 to help.


      PA-02

  • Chris Rawlings October 14, 2016 at 9:59 am

    Trump leads Clinton in Texas–TEXAS–by four points in a four-way poll by SurveyUSA. Do I think he’ll lose Texas? Probably not, but if he wins it won’t be by more than a mid-single-digit gap. And if you aren’t winning Texas by more than five or six points, let’s be honest, you are really struggling to hold the House, let alone the Senate.


    • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 10:06 am

      How are the two correlated? We have exactly one seat in Texas that is up for grabs.


      R/NC-4.

      • Chris Rawlings October 14, 2016 at 10:28 am

        Your naivite about what is headed to the GOP, especially in your state, is astonishing. I don’t know what else to say other than see you in 2.5 weeks, I guess, because one of us is going to be bigly surprised.


        • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 10:43 am

          With Burr ahead in most polls, McCrory pulling into a tie in a few polls, how exactly is there going to be a local bloodbath in a heavily gerrymandered state? Dems aren’t spending in a single congressional race and Ds won’t gain enough to flip either legislative chamber.


          28, M, R, NY-10

          • aggou October 14, 2016 at 11:02 am

            This is exactly right. Even the state D’s will admit their “focus” is trying to get R’s below a super majority in both chambers.

            That’s a “winning” strategy, to a degree, especially with Cooper if they can block some of our bills. But they don’t have a hope of gaining the legislature, so their best “outcome” is getting R’s below super majority status. Overall, that’s not a winning strategy.

            McCrory has done well with his handling of the Hurricane and its impacts, and I believe that’s being reflected in the polling, we’ll see what others how of course. But inside the numbers of the Marist poll, McCrory had been down in eastern NC by 3, now he’s up by 3. That’s a 6 point gain, and he came from a 40 point deficit in Raleigh area, to a 19 point deficit. The areas where the storm has hit, he’s improved rather impressively, and even gained in the western half of the state, too. We’ll see how it plays out as the election gets closer, but R’s are even pushing for the state TV stations to replay Tuesday’s debate due to how well McCrory did. Particularly for Eastern NC where 40k still do not have power.

            • aggou October 14, 2016 at 11:06 am

              Now, I’m not saying McCrory will win. He’s still down, but what I am saying is things can occur (take a hurricane) which can change the dynamics of a race in a particular state. Regardless of what is happening at the presidential level.

          • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 11:10 am

            I hesitate to use the term “heavily gerrmandered” to describe legislative or congressional lines in North Carolina. The congressional and Legislative maps split relative few counties or cities-per the state constitution-and democrats are extremely self packed within a few urban counties as well rural counties large AA communities.

            You could certainly re-arrange lines to have different results in North Carolina but when I think of heavily gerrmandered lines I think of MD or IL congressional maps. Those are nasty looking maps and bring to mind the idea of gerrymandering.

            • rdw72777 October 14, 2016 at 11:18 am

              I’m astonished the gerrymandering examples you recall most vividly are Dem gerrymanders…astonished I say. Certainly NC-2/NC-4 were drawn without political consideration…

            • segmentation_fault October 14, 2016 at 11:32 am

              Take a look at the state senate districts in Cumberland County and tell me that’s not heavily gerrymandered.

              They are restricted by law in splitting counties for legislative maps, but there are still some nasty gerrymanders within counties. Dems actually won the popular vote for the legislature in 2012 but Republicans took supermajorities of seats — that’s the definition of an effective gerrymander.


              En Marche! Make our planet great again!

              • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 11:35 am

                They did not actually win the popular vote for legislature in 2012. They did win the popular vote for Congress, although they were blown out in 2014.


                R/NC-4.

                • segmentation_fault October 14, 2016 at 11:58 am

                  D0 you know what the total vote was then? I recall that the Dems won the state House vote in 2012, and if you adjust for uncontested districts which were disproportionately Republican, they won both houses. I can’t find a source at the moment.


                  En Marche! Make our planet great again!

                  • krazen1211 October 14, 2016 at 12:06 pm

                    I’ve seen this analysis before. It basically relies on an election ‘unskewing’ where the author decides to add fictional votes to the Democratic party just because he can.

                    The Republicans won the legislative vote in 2013 in New Jersey and ended up with 40% of the seats. Only they actually won more voters without any unskewing.

                    Stuff happens.

                  • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 12:23 pm

                    I think both calculations rely on “adjusting for uncontested districts” and are thus garbage in my book. You can argue about the margins but Republicans controlling the legislature in a Romney state that their gubernatorial candidate won by 15 isn’t outrageous.


                    R/NC-4.

                    • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 12:55 pm

                      Go back to Tillis-Hagan. The vote in NC is extremely polarized by county and frankly within the largest 10 counties as well. Oh you can make a state senate map that is 25-25 but to do so you to have very few GOP seats in Wake or Mecklenburg or Guilford or whatever counties.

                      I might add that the legislative map was struck down because the court ruled that race was a factor in its drawing. Of course it was drawn to comply with VRA requirements that have since been undone by the high court.

                      Not sure the GOP will go 34-16 but you can certainly do 30-20 map without taking race into account and using less county splits then the current map.

              • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 11:52 am

                Oh my goodness certainly NC2 and NC4 as the whole map of NC was drawn with political consideration. That does not make it “heavily gerrymandered”. Basically the GOP decided to split Guilford, Cumberland and Bunscombe counties to their advantage. That does not make the map “heavily gerrymandered”. Is there any doubt that the GOP parts of Wake county could be attached to suburban counties to make NC2 an R likely seat?

                Basically there are three decisions, under the current court rational, that you can make in NC congressional maps.

                1st do you split Buncombe, Guilford and Cumberland counties? Not splitting them helps Ds-splitting them helps Rs
                2nd what counties do you attach to the leftover parts of Meckelenburg and Wake counties?
                3rd what do you attach to the base of rural counties that make up the bulk of CD1
                4th I guess you could decide to attach Orange and Durham counties westward but that just a function of how you split Wake county .

                Oh you could attach Guilford county to the city of Winston Salem but if you keep the largest counties intact. So the CD map of North Carolina favors the Rs but heavily gerrymandered IMO is not a fit claim. A gerrymander historically involves splitting a bunch of counties and doing bizarre lines.

                • segmentation_fault October 14, 2016 at 11:56 am

                  I was talking about the legislative maps, which have actually been struck down now by courts and will be redrawn next year. The new congressional map is not nearly as gerrymandered as the old map, which was “heavily gerrymandered.” The new one is still gerrymandered, but if you want to say it’s not “heavily” gerrymandered… okay, fine.


                  En Marche! Make our planet great again!

                • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 12:06 pm

                  As far as the senate lines how voters are arranged within a county historically does not fit the definition of a gerrymander. County lines are not crisscrossed. Within counties Community of interests are so close. It is not like voters in Cumberland county on the north side don’t share common interests with those near the base or in the southeastern part of the county.

                  SD19 is not pretty but let’s also be clear that most of the nasty lines have to do with the precinct lines. Typically legislative maps do not redraw precinct maps. You could smooth out the lines if you smoothed out the precinct lines

                  http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/Maps_Reports/MemberPageMaps/senate/NCSenate_distDetail_19.pdf

                  • segmentation_fault October 14, 2016 at 12:24 pm

                    Dude. I don’t even think they used any precinct lines in SD19. That’s part of the reason the lines are so ugly. They used census blocks or even less… just found out where black peoples’ houses were and just drew around that area. They split just about every precinct.


                    En Marche! Make our planet great again!

                    • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 12:31 pm

                      Yeah it’s drawn to be a legally mandated 50%+ BVAP seat.

                      The funny thing is though that you can draw a safer and “prettier” Republican seat in the same two-county pod without splitting any precincts.


                      R/NC-4.

            • District101 October 14, 2016 at 6:44 pm

              Really? You can easily make a 6-6-1 map in North Carolina, so a 10-3 map is heavily gerrymandered. Even an 8-3-2 map would be pretty gerrymandered.


              Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

              • Son_of_the_South October 14, 2016 at 7:16 pm

                8-3-2 wouldn’t be gerrymandered if the districts were based on compactness and COI and it just so happened that some districts were compact Dem superpacks.


                23, R, DC-AL
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • Republican Michigander October 14, 2016 at 8:32 pm

                “Competitiveness” doesn’t equal non-gerrymandered. In many areas, democrats self-pack into communities. Unless you bacon-strip into those areas, it’s going to be an 80% D district which makes other districts more GOP.

                Communities of interest should matter. Representatives are supposed to be part of the community.


                MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • WingNightAlone October 14, 2016 at 11:00 am

          I don’t think this is the place for vague generalities. Show us the downballot bloodbath in Texas or NC. McCrory is likely to lose, no one here’s denying that. Burr could hold on. No one in Texas other than Hurd is at risk.


          25. Saint John-Rothesay. Financial services sales manager. Blue Tory.

          • Chris Rawlings October 14, 2016 at 11:36 am

            Listen, if a Democrat wins Texas at the presidential level I think it’s catastrophic for the GOP, even if they happen to preserve themselves downballot.


            • WingNightAlone October 14, 2016 at 3:37 pm

              It’s catastrophic for the shitty candidate at the top of the ticket. It will have less than no effect downballot, other Hurd and presumably some marginal state leg seats. You just showed up here and started acting very dismissive and rude when literally everyone else tries to be civil. Chill.


              25. Saint John-Rothesay. Financial services sales manager. Blue Tory.

        • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 11:06 am

          Excuse me?

          You can call me a lot of things, but naive about North Carolina politics is not one of them. I am deeply, gravely concerned about things in North Carolina, moreso than anyone else here. I am incredibly worried about our state legislators in the metropolitan counties. We might pick up one or two conservadem seats but the supermajority is likely gone. And of course I’m petrified about the absentee ballot statistics and the efficacy of our GOTV operation. I’ve spent more time thinking about the statewide races than I care to admit and know how challenging that environment is. I’m also connected to things on the ground here in ways that don’t allow me to opine extensively about every North Carolina race the way that I might like to.

          I also know that not one North Carolina Congressional seat is even on the board. Republicans struggling at the top of the ticket in Texas and North Carolina means zilch for the House of Representatives. I avoid panic because it isn’t useful and there isn’t evidence for the need to panic.


          R/NC-4.

          • pack2010 October 14, 2016 at 11:25 am

            I’m from NC but I’d wager to say GOPTarheel knows more about NC politics comatose than I do hyper caffeinated memorizing by how much Jesse Helms beat Jim Hunt in 1984 in Alamance County. I’d listen to him….especially when it comes to NC.
            My only complaint is he went the school that’s the center of evil in North Carolina! 🙂


            NC-2 (Home) VA-9 (School)
            Reform/Burkean Conservative
            Ex-GOP/Firm Independent for now

            • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 1:23 pm

              I will agree with Pack and say that GOPTarheel knows more about NC politics than almost anyone I know. I really hope he is right. My hope stems from polls showing GOP downballot hanging in. My fear is we are hanging in in races that should not be competitive and as Trump’s campaign collapses in on itself like the giant black hole it is he will take everyone down with him. Right now everything is really calm but the ocean water seems to be receding a little too much in a funny way as it does before giant tidal waves. I hope I am wrong. I pray things remain like this going into election day but my fear is Trump will implode and spend the next 3 weeks attacking Republicans and tilt all this lean GOP races to the Democrats.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Chris Rawlings October 14, 2016 at 11:34 am

          I expect the three federal statewide offices to all go to Democrats in North Carolina, as well as most other statewide offices. Because of gerrymandering, really obscene gerrymandering, Democrats will be blocked from eating too far into GOP legislative majorities or the state congressional delegation.

          If you call getting wiped out in statewide offices, especially the expensive ones, and hanging on but by the gift of gerrymandering, a non-disaster, whatever. It’s a disaster, and that’s what will happen.


          • pack2010 October 14, 2016 at 11:41 am

            Trump is going to lose NC, I’m feeling MUCH better about Burr at the moment, I think Burr will win. McCrory…..it’ll be close.


            NC-2 (Home) VA-9 (School)
            Reform/Burkean Conservative
            Ex-GOP/Firm Independent for now

          • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 11:42 am

            1) There are only 2 statewide federal contests obviously. Burr is still a narrow favorite by all accounts. Nobody has triaged any statewide race that was expected to be competitive. All of them still are.

            2) They won’t “eat too far” into the Congressional delegation-they won’t eat into it AT ALL.

            3) Your original post talked about losing the Senate and the House. Of course losing North Carolina races would be a disaster for North Carolina Republicans. You don’t have to tell me that. But bad performances in statewide Texas or North Carolina polling IS NOT EVIDENCE for losing the HOUSE.


            R/NC-4.

          • aggou October 14, 2016 at 12:01 pm

            Can you chill? You’re being quite divisive.

    • andyroo312 October 14, 2016 at 10:14 am

      I think it’s possible Clinton could win Texas – if she’s willing to spend there, which would require a whole lot of resources. My hunch is Trump takes it, probably by about 49-47%, if neither team spends there.


      MA-7

      • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 1:25 pm

        Trump is lucky McMullin is not on the ballot and is only a write-in in Texas.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 1:59 pm

      On Texas I think its worth pointing out that the GOP does surprisingly well with rural Latino-Americans of Mexican descended in Texas. The Latino vote in TX looks nothing like that of CA. Trump is changing that.

      Also TX has been a big winner in NAFTA. Complaining about it in TX is counterproductive.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Tekzilla October 14, 2016 at 10:12 am

    Monmouth IN coming today, perhaps the public poll Turd Blossom was talking about?


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 10:12 am

    Monmouth Indiana coming.


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • OGGoldy October 14, 2016 at 10:27 am

    I am not sure how I missed this, but the house I purchased last year, and will be voting in for the first time in November, is in a split precinct. My house is actually in a split precinct in Golden Valley that is partially in 45B, and 46A. Does anyone else here live in a split precinct?

    • Son_of_the_South October 14, 2016 at 5:08 pm

      Roguemapper does, if memory serves.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • kewgardens October 14, 2016 at 5:45 pm

        I’m sure that you could register in both!!

        • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 5:51 pm

          You can always get a dumb BOE worker to give you the ballot of the opposite party.


          28, M, R, NY-10

  • GorrestFump October 14, 2016 at 11:27 am

    Citing Kirk’s stroke, Tribune endorses Duckworth
    http://capitolfax.com/2016/10/14/citing-kirks-stroke-tribune-endorses-duckworth/

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 11:30 am

      That can hurt, but he’s gone already.


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • w920us October 14, 2016 at 1:15 pm

      It’s nice to see the media rating disabilities!


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 1:31 pm

      I wonder what the reaction would be if the Tribune cited Duckworth’s disability as a reason for endorsing Kirk? Both candidates here have survived medical injuries and for the Tribune to imply Kirk is literally unfit to serve is disgraceful.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • District101 October 14, 2016 at 6:48 pm

        Yeah, they endorsed Johnson for president, back-tracking from when they endorsed Obama twice.


        Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

  • davybaby October 14, 2016 at 11:37 am

    A “dude wearing a dress”? Like this one?

    https://youtu.be/4IrE6FMpai8

    • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 1:35 pm

      A yes more video evidence of Donald Trump’s pertinacity for sexually assaulting women. The fact that Trump’s boorish behavior was well known and enough of a thing for them to joke about it like this says it all.

      For the record “dude wearing a dress” was not in anyway meant to be an insult. It was simply a statement of fact.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/786954109244977156

    In past 24 hours, more people in Utah are searching Evan McMullin on Google in Utah than Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton or Gary Johnson.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • californianintexas October 14, 2016 at 8:41 pm

      In my part of Salt Lake in the last couple of weeks I have seen a lot more signs not just for Clinton/Kaine, but also Misty Snow and Mike Weinholtz.


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

      • roguemapper October 14, 2016 at 8:43 pm

        I’m a bit surprised someone bothered to have signs made for Snow and Weinholtz.


        Dem NC-11

        • Son_of_the_South October 14, 2016 at 8:48 pm

          The bubble must be maintained.


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • californianintexas October 16, 2016 at 4:12 pm

            In a way, I do live in a “bubble”, as I live in one of the few State Senate and State House districts represented by Democrats.


            34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

      • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 9:22 pm

        Are you sure it wasnt a Mike Lee sign dressed up to look like a Misty Snow one?


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • GorrestFump October 14, 2016 at 12:21 pm

    Biden cuts ad for McGinty, Selzer had his favs at 62/34 in PA.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrjhVVvWw9c

  • rdw72777 October 14, 2016 at 12:41 pm

    Carlos Slim was behind the sex assualt allegations…in conjunction with Clintons and NBC and Paul Ryan and the Church of LDS and Beyonce and Angela Merkel and Harambe (he’s still alive!!!) and and so on and so forth.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/14/donald-trump-to-claim-mexican-billionaire-carlos-slim-behind-nyt-sex-assault-stories-wsj.html

    • TexasR October 14, 2016 at 12:55 pm

      Given his history, I’m surprised that the Donald didn’t say that Chy-nya and Ted Cruz’ dad were behind it!


      Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
      Be careful what you wish for

      • Ryan_in_SEPA October 14, 2016 at 1:33 pm

        You forgot Pope Francis, the Trilateral Commission, and the Communist Party of China.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 1:38 pm

      I still think Trump was right yesterday and the Jews did it. Clearly not a coincidence it came out over Yom Kippur.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • GradyDem October 14, 2016 at 12:50 pm

    Young internal: Young 40%, Bayh 39%

    https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/786972170039754752

    • GradyDem October 14, 2016 at 12:53 pm

      Very bizarre to put this out now…

      • Chris Rawlings October 14, 2016 at 12:55 pm

        Maybe Monmouth’s numbers will be less than optimal for him. I think he’ll lose regardless of what his own pollster says about the race.


        • rdw72777 October 14, 2016 at 1:00 pm

          The tease is Gregg +12, Bayh +6 and Trump +4.

          https://twitter.com/IndyPoliticsOrg?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

          I don’t know that this is official but it’s floating around.

          • kewgardens October 14, 2016 at 1:22 pm

            Monmouth does have a Dem house effect. But down six would still be terrible for Young.

            Looks like all that optimism surrounding Young may have been misplaced. Bayh is increasingly looking like a quasi-teflon candidate.

            • rdw72777 October 14, 2016 at 1:34 pm

              It’s only 1 poll. This is creeping into NC and PA polling where it seems like handicapping the race is nearly impossible because the polls are so varied.

            • Manhatlibertarian October 14, 2016 at 2:55 pm

              Well this is Dem leaning Monmouth after all, and the previous recent poll by another pollster showed Bayh only up by 1 and Gregg by 2. So let’s see some more polls before writing off Young; I find it hard to believe that Trump carries the state by four or five points yet “absentee DC insider” Bayh wins also. However, the magnitude of Gregg’s lead in the poll in the Gov race makes me think that Gregg may indeed by hard to beat.

              • District101 October 14, 2016 at 6:52 pm

                The previous poll was done for Young’s campaign, and POS is a Republican pollster. Monmouth is the second-best pollster, after only Marist. Monmouth is a good pollster by all means. They are not Democratic-leaning, actually on Daily Kos Elections today, someone was saying that they’re Republican-leaning actually, saying that Trump would probably be up 10.


                Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

    • kewgardens October 14, 2016 at 1:18 pm

      That’s not so good. Probably means he’s down three or four.

      Does not jive with rumors from Rove and others that public polling will show Young up. Perhaps Monmouth will show Bayh up 5 or so and Young is trying to preempt the news. Why else release an internal showing you up by only one?

    • segmentation_fault October 14, 2016 at 1:36 pm

      All of these stories are from the early ’90s. Why was Donald so horny in the early ’90s?


      En Marche! Make our planet great again!

      • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 1:42 pm

        Actually a lot of them are from 2005. I think Trump has been an ass through multiple decades.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • segmentation_fault October 14, 2016 at 1:45 pm

          That’s true. But the two times he told little girls he would be dating them soon were in the early ’90s, and he assaulted a girl in Ivanka’s bedroom in the early ’90s.

          Maybe because in the early ’90s, and also in 2005, he was between marriages? Because as a strong Christian, Trump wouldn’t want to do anything inappropriate while married.


          En Marche! Make our planet great again!

          • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 1:48 pm

            Probably learning from ya boy Bill that you can be a sexual predator without public consequences.


            R/NC-4.

          • rdw72777 October 14, 2016 at 1:48 pm

            Wasn’t the 2005 stuff after he married Melania? (and yes I know you were not being serious)

  • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 12:59 pm

    And Ken Bone is beyond an idiot…

    http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2016/10/14/ken-bone-linked-to-questionable-past-comments-on-reddit.html


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • RogueBeaver October 14, 2016 at 1:01 pm

    Monmouth: DT +4, Bayh 48/42. https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/786974864825397248


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • Chris Rawlings October 14, 2016 at 1:06 pm

      The gubernatorial numbers are brutal for the GOP. I suspect voters are still taking it out on Pence, though he is (mostly) off the ballot. I’ve always suspected that poor Mike Pence jumped into the Trump dumpster fire because it was a better opportunity to salvage a career that was about to end with a loss in the gubernatorial race in November.


      • RightReformer October 14, 2016 at 1:30 pm

        Ok, enough with the Democratic cheerleading. You’re being warned to dial it back seriously.


    • edtorres04 October 14, 2016 at 1:07 pm

      Very strong numbers for Bayh

    • Tekzilla October 14, 2016 at 1:10 pm

      Look at that Gregg number!!!

      BREAKING: Indiana (!)
      DJT 45 (+4)
      HRC 41
      GJ 9

      #INSen
      Bayh 48 (+6D)
      Young 42

      #INGov
      Gregg 50 (+12D)
      Holcomb 38

      monmouth.edu/polling-instit…


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • OGGoldy October 14, 2016 at 1:43 pm

        So, what gives with Gregg? Or is it Holcomb is that week? I certainly didn’t expect to see Gregg outpacing Bayh by 6.

        • Son_of_the_South October 14, 2016 at 5:12 pm

          It’s both. Gregg has name rec from his last run, Holcomb is still largely unknown to swing voters, and Pence is very polarizing.


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • dforston October 14, 2016 at 1:48 pm

        Perspective… that’s actually a 1 point move in Young’s direction from Monmouth’s last poll. Last poll was 48-41, newest is 48-42. At that rate, Young would never catch Bayh though.

      • Merrimackman October 14, 2016 at 3:29 pm

        This is why I don’t like party Hacks and staffers as candidates. They can win in waves and safe seats, but when the tough gets going, they are generic candidates, and there is no personal touch to save them with the voters. I was suspicious this might happen with Holcomb from the start


        R, RI-2

        • jncca October 14, 2016 at 3:59 pm

          See Hollande, Francois (who now that I think about significantly underperformed the fundamentals by winning by only 3% during the midst of essentially a half-decade recession)


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • Son_of_the_South October 14, 2016 at 5:14 pm

        That’s a one-point improvement for Young, about what I expected. With Monmouth’s Dem house effect I’ll call it a tied race. Gregg will win fairly comfortably, but not by nearly that much.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • District101 October 14, 2016 at 6:55 pm

      Those numbers are shocking, and the Governor ones are brutal for Holcomb. Don’t think this is completely right, but I’m gleeful at these numbers. Bayh still is up it seems. I have to see an internal from Bayh, that should clear up any doubts I have about this.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

      • Lucas Black October 14, 2016 at 9:46 pm

        Piss off with your gleefulness.

      • shamlet October 14, 2016 at 10:02 pm

        We’ve warned you to tone down the Dem cheerleading. This isn’t as blatant as before but it’s still over the line. This is your last warning.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Chris Rawlings October 14, 2016 at 1:18 pm

    Hilary has a lot of cash that she could spend any number of different ways. If she threw some at Utah, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, and Texas, I could see her picking off at least two of those states. The problem is that the key congressional and Senate races are in states that she’s already basically wrapped up–NC, Florida Colorado, etc. She’ll still spend there, of course, and she’ll obviously keep her ground game in place. But you wonder if she prefers to realign the electoral map or take a crack at the trifecta. Are there enough resources for both?


    • aggou October 14, 2016 at 1:22 pm

      This is not a realignment election. If it were generic R against her and she were running this well, then you could say it is a realignment.

      But it’s not.

      • Left Coast Libertarian October 14, 2016 at 3:23 pm

        It really won’t change the map at all. If Clinton wins by 6 points she should win anything R+3 or better. Since Trump is an unconventional R, Clinton might win states that are R+3-7. She could even win Utah. If she wins Arizona while John McCain is winning 60%-40% against a sitting rep, it’s apparent there’s no realignment at all.

        I believe Trump will do better than generic R in some/many of the northeastern states. That won’t mean it’s better for Republicans.

      • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 3:43 pm

        Yup honestly anybody but Hillary would be pushing 55 to 60% right now. Biden or even Bernie would be +20% ahead of Trump.

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 1:31 pm

      Only Republicans are allowed to cheerlead for Dems here.


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 1:46 pm

        What’s up with all the actual Democrat cheerleading lately? It’s gotten so bad lately.


        R/NC-4.

        • Tekzilla October 14, 2016 at 2:17 pm

          I try to not do it. Sometimes it’s hard for me hold back my utter disdain for Trump though.

          I know we had that one new poster who went way overboard though.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 2:21 pm

            You aren’t bad at all and I’m glad you, RM, Setsuna, and the other D regulars are here. Besides your cheerleading is usually counterbalanced by bed-wetting 🙂


            R/NC-4.

          • jncca October 14, 2016 at 2:26 pm

            I don’t think I’ve done it at all.


            24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

            • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 2:32 pm

              You didn’t.


              28, M, R, NY-10

            • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 2:33 pm

              I was referring to two or three new posters.


              R/NC-4.

            • davybaby October 14, 2016 at 4:28 pm

              Me neither!

          • Manhatlibertarian October 14, 2016 at 2:37 pm

            I don’t particularly care if Dems cheerlead for Clinton, since I have disdain for both Trump and Clinton and I’m somewhat varied in my own political views. However , I do object to Dem cheerleading that is not based on factual evidence of some type. For example, one recent Dem cheerleader claimed that both Congressman Katko and Zeldin of NY were finished. Yet in two recent Siena polls Katko was ahead by 19 and Zeldin by 15. So if you want to cheerlead for Hillary or Dems and present some type of decent evidence for your claims OK, whether you are a Dem or one of the new “I’m with her types”. But continual mindless cheerleading for Dems not based either on polls or some type of decent evidence IMO is a waste of time for this type of site.

        • roguemapper October 14, 2016 at 4:38 pm

          I know you’ve already clarified but for the record:

          1) With regard to the presidential race I’ve just been stating the obvious as I see it, which has mostly turned out to be true.

          2) I haven’t commented much on Senate races. I said a couple times that Portman was the GOP Senator most likely to overperform in a competitive race. I said Rubio was favored the day he reentered (and that Murphy was done when he was exposed as a fraud). I’ve actually become slightly more ambivalent about that lately, but still think Rubio is clearly favored. I said early on that Toomey would lose because he can’t overcome straight-ticket voting. I said that Kirk is very likely to overperform and was being written off too easily. I’ve been ambivalent at best about Burr losing. I don’t think I’ve commented on NH or IN, and that’s because I think Hassan and Bayh are clearly favored, so it would’ve been D cheerleading for me to say what I thought about those races. 😉 Kander is primed for an upset in my view, but that race probably won’t be clear until results come in. Johnson is almost surely cooked, though the latest polls give me pause.

          3) And, so far as the House, I’ve said very little because whenever I’ve modeled the House I hit a light firewall at the D +10-12 mark that seems very likely to fall, but a heavy firewall at the D +18-20 mark that will not give unless GOP turnout craters across the board. I do think that with presidential numbers like we’re seeing that there are bound to be a scattering of relatively surprising GOP casualties, but that, on its own, should only get things to D +25 at best.


          Dem NC-11

          • roguemapper October 14, 2016 at 4:57 pm

            Oh, and with regard to Nevada Senate, the only thing I’ve said is that it would not be an upset, much less the “biggest upset” of the cycle, for Heck to win. But, fwiw, I see the same pattern as in 2008, 2010, and 2012 when polls underrated Ds, so that’s what I think is most likely to be the case again in 2016, for much the same reasons. I don’t think that 2014 contradicted that pattern, because the demographics that cratered in 2014 were the same demographics that make NV difficult to poll either way (ESL Latinos & highly transient voters). In short, if CCM is polling within 3 then I think she’s slightly more likely than not to win, and steadily more favored the closer she polls, and obviously so if she starts polling ahead. That said, this is of course another of those things that we won’t know for sure until results come in.


            Dem NC-11

      • RightReformer October 14, 2016 at 2:09 pm

        Just to be crystal clear, I assume MosheM is joking. Democrat cheerleading is generally not allowed by anyone. Even our dedicated NeverTrumpers who support GOP Senate candidates should be careful not to cheerlead for Hillary


      • Left Coast Libertarian October 14, 2016 at 3:20 pm

        MosheM, I assume this is a jab at me. I took it that way and found it very funny.

  • Tekzilla October 14, 2016 at 2:17 pm

    http://us12.campaign-archive2.com/?u=5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6&id=287ad48d38

    AZ poll

    Clinton 43%
    Trump 42%


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 2:24 pm

      I want to see new Senate numbers after McCain repudiated Trump


      28, M, R, NY-10

  • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 2:49 pm

    high-profile civil rights lawyer Gloria Allred brought forward another alleged victim of Donald Trump at a Friday news conference in Los Angeles.
    Ms Allred said Summer Zervos, a former contestant on season five of The Apprentice, was targeted by Mr Trump when she met him at the Beverly Hills Hotel to discuss employment opportunities.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37658316


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 2:54 pm

      Multiple per day until the election.


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • Merrimackman October 14, 2016 at 3:27 pm

        Not sure how anyone would still work for Trump at this point


        R, RI-2

  • krazen1211 October 14, 2016 at 3:06 pm

    Paul Ryan decides to bash Hillary for a change.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-bc-us–campaign-2016-ryan-20161014-story.html

    • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 3:21 pm

      “For a change”? Are you serious?


      R/NC-4.

  • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 3:13 pm

    #cosen 3Q fundraising: @DarrylGlenn2016’s $2.8 mill outpaces @BennetForCO’s $2.2 mill, Glenn $1.9 mill on hand, Bennet has &3.6 mill


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • shamlet October 14, 2016 at 3:20 pm

      Hmm, he finally woke up. Maybe there’s hope for him being a viable candidate (not this year, but maybe against Lamborn in 2018) after all.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 3:13 pm

    Check out @michaelcrowley’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/michaelcrowley/status/787005454299697152?s=09


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • Manhatlibertarian October 14, 2016 at 3:21 pm

    Clinton responded in writing under orders of a federal judge to a series of 25 questions submitted by the group Judicial Watch concerning her email server in a law suit. Her responses are evasive and in at least 21 instances used variations of does not recall in her responses. She claims she has no recollection of ordering emails related to State Dept. business to be deleted. Unlike her FBI testimony, this document is submitted under oath, so you can bet the responses will be closely studied for any contradictions with other testimony.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/14/clinton-does-not-recall-ordering-destruction-emails-from-personal-server-in-testimony.html

  • dforston October 14, 2016 at 3:40 pm

    RCP has 7 senate races within 4 points….
    Pennsylvania McGinty (D) +0.4
    North Carolina Burr (R) +1.9
    Missouri Blunt (R) +2.3
    New Hampshire Ayotte (R) +2.3
    Wisconsin Feingold (D) +3.0
    Nevada Heck (R) +3.4
    Indiana Bayh (D) +3.5
    Nail biters.

    • andyroo312 October 14, 2016 at 3:56 pm

      Right now, I would stack my chips on Toomey, Burr, Blunt, Hassan, Feingold, Heck and Young.


      MA-7

      • WingNightAlone October 14, 2016 at 4:00 pm

        I’m not feeling too upbeat on Toomey, man. Gonna be a hard margin to surmount. I also think Kander is more likely to take out Blunt than Hassan is Ayotte.


        25. Saint John-Rothesay. Financial services sales manager. Blue Tory.

        • jncca October 14, 2016 at 4:01 pm

          Incumbents are tough, and incumbents in red states are tougher. Kander still feels like fools gold to me (although so did Heitkamp).


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 4:33 pm

            Blunt didnt need to raise money now because he already has hard money. He had a huge warchest going into this race and still has big cash advantage.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • dforston October 14, 2016 at 4:27 pm

          In that case, I would assume you think Trump will also help KY Rs take over the state house too?

      • jncca October 14, 2016 at 4:01 pm

        Disagree on Toomey, and starting to think Burr won’t pull it out (as one of the only victims of a small Trumpocalypse).


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • reedc October 14, 2016 at 4:20 pm

        I think Ayotte wins and and Blunt and Toomey lose. I agree with the rest. I actually feel worse about Blunt than I do Toomey. No hard evidence (since he’s still slight favorite in polls). Just a bad feeling there – think he loses for same reason Bayh does.

      • aggou October 14, 2016 at 4:22 pm

        I would too, barring R’s magically becoming tied with Trump, which has yet to happen, and early voting is going on enough that I doubt it’ll matter too much to try and make that the case.

        R’s can just as easily focus on Hillary’s negatives, which are great, and that should help them. It’s what Burr did in the debate rather nicely last night.

        • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 4:47 pm

          One party tends to win most of the close races unless of course they don’t

          In 2012 the races under 4% went 2R 2D
          In 2014 the races under 4% went 3R 2D
          In 2010 the races under 4% went 2R 1D

          Of course if you raise the margin of victory above 4% is the race really all that close?

          I hesitate to guess about the 2016 races but I suspect the GOP wins 4 or 5 of the seven races that are listed.

          • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 5:09 pm

            MIZ clearly 4% is a very narrow thresh-hold but what is a better guide?

            One problem for analysis is that every cycle has 20 or so seats that are just gimme ones. The 2014 cycle includes MA, WI, RI, HI and IL while the R side has MS, TN, WY and so forth. In any given here the senate field is 10 to 13 or races. Honestly with the GOP seats in GA & KY being open the field got a bit higher but not too high. I think 19 seats are pretty safe for either party in 2016.

            The other problem is polling. How many races were really close in 2014? Based on polling numbers KY and GA looked too close to call but not so.

          • Left Coast Libertarian October 14, 2016 at 5:15 pm

            If the races are truly toss up then each party should win roughly half. If one party wins most of the toss up races it’s because the prognosticators misread the races.

            • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 6:41 pm

              In 2004 I expanded the tossup margin to 6% and the GOP won 3 while the Ds won 1 race.

              So how many close races was there in 2004?

              I count 5 races that were under a 10% final margin.

              As noted above in 2012 the close races split.

              I suggest more accurately in a landslide year like 2010 or 2008 or 2014 you see all the purple states trending one way while several blue or red states tilt to the opposite party.

              This year things are going all over the place but true red and blue states are trending towards their own party.

              Except perhaps the open seat of Indiana with a former Gov/Senator making a play for a comeback.

            • Left Coast Libertarian October 14, 2016 at 9:17 pm

              A race they call a toss up but one party wins by 10 isn’t a toss up. RDELBOV is correct that only races that were close should’ve been toss ups and those split almost evenly. You’re missing my point entirely. If one party wins many of the tossup races, as happened in many of those elections, the problem was that the prognosticators put races in the toss-up column when they shouldn’t have been. Poor work by Larry Sabato or Charlie Cook doesn’t mean the toss up races break one way.

              Democrats won 6 House seats in CA by about 4-5 points or less last cycle. Most of these weren’t rated toss ups. They should’ve been.

              • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 9:52 pm

                Yup so stay tuned. The past is not a great way to gauge these senate races.

  • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 4:07 pm

    This seems like real reporting from WAPO as opposed to un-named sources from a Politico piece

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/14/early-voter-registration-numbers-dont-suggest-big-surges-among-democrats-or-women/

    Note the Florida data

    • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 4:38 pm

      The issue was not that there was no Dem surge. The issue is a lack of GOP effort means there is no GOP surge. Trump’s entire strategy was the “missing white voter” yet he’s done nothing and his campaign has made no effort to register those missing voters. That is the dog that didnt bark.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 4:50 pm

        Clearly neither party has had a surge of registered voters. I can’t dispute the data that WAPO came up .

        On the flip side there has been a night and day difference between 2008 and 2016. Anyone but Trump IMO on the GOP side would be romping.

  • Tekzilla October 14, 2016 at 4:12 pm

    http://www.wethepeopleconvention.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/October11PollResults-1.pdf

    Trump up 51-39 in the 4 way of an Ohio push poll.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • aggou October 14, 2016 at 4:20 pm

    Judge refused to give 5 NC counties extra early-voting. Said none of the lawmakers violated his injunction against the 2013 law, passed.

    http://www.wral.com/judge-refuses-to-require-more-early-voting-in-n-carolina/16114302/

    • Manhatlibertarian October 14, 2016 at 7:06 pm

      But as I recall Justice Schroeder has generally been more favorable to the State’s position on early voting. The Fed Appeals Court has often overruled him, so it is possible it could happen again if the plaintiffs appeal. The thing is though I don’t know how feasible that is time wise with early voting starting in a few days. So we’ll see.

  • Conservative First October 14, 2016 at 4:46 pm

    Correction: Redstate did not endorse McMullin. Ben Howe did.

  • Setsuna October 14, 2016 at 4:48 pm

    Lucid, who have been doing a national tracker for The Times-Picayune, just released state polls for IA, IN, OH, and PA: http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/post_623.html#0

    They have Clinton up 5 in OH, up 6 in IA and PA, and down 9 in IN. In the Senate races they have Portman up 14, Grassley up 10, Toomey up 1, and Bayh up 3.

    These polls were also commissioned by The Times-Picayune. Next week they’ll be doing FL, GA, NC, and VA. They don’t have much of a track record but I don’t see anything wrong with their methodology at a glance.

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 5:03 pm

      Interesting. The more polls the better.


      28, M, R, NY-10

  • Republican Michigander October 14, 2016 at 5:02 pm

    From the Enemy – https://www.scribd.com/document/327464027/MI-08-DCCC-in-house-Oct-2016

    MI-08 – DCCC polls has Bishop at 47%, Shkreli at 41%
    DCCC in MI-08 has Hillary 44%, Trump 37%, Johnson 10%.

    The poll does not break down samples by geography. Obama won the district in 2008 and Romney won it narrowly in 2012. Keep in mind while the district leans Republican, I can not call any district with Lansing, East Lansing, and Okemos a safe seat.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 5:04 pm

      We lucked out by nominating Bishop.


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • Republican Michigander October 14, 2016 at 5:14 pm

        Bishop’s a first term incumbent and doing a good job and has a good staff. I wish he bragged a little more at times, but that’s not his style.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • GradyDem October 14, 2016 at 5:05 pm

    PPP: Clinton +4 to 5, Rubio +5 to +6 (depending on inclusion of third party candidates)

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/clintons-florida-lead-continues-to-grow.html

    • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 5:07 pm

      I knew it was going to be a rough poll for Murphy when I had to read to the very end of it to see Senate numbers.


      R/NC-4.

      • segmentation_fault October 14, 2016 at 5:10 pm

        I always just skip to the end and click on the crosstabs pdf.


        En Marche! Make our planet great again!

    • MosheM October 14, 2016 at 5:22 pm

      Rick Scott popular again…


      28, M, R, NY-10

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