Weekend Open Thread, October 14-16, 2016

Welcome to the weekend. Here are some questions to get us started.

  1. Donna Brazile has refused to comment on e-mails that show her secretly giving the Clinton campaign public forum questions ahead of time. She says she won’t comment on the issue because that’s what Russians want to do–tamper with the US Election. Should Russian hackery be a bigger deal than it is this election cycle?
  2. Is Mike Pence permanently damaged if Trump loses the election?

And, because it’s the weekend, I offer you this video of people who refuse to call Sean Hannity.

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331 Comments

  • roguemapper October 14, 2016 at 5:43 pm

    1. The US should retaliate against Russian hackery. They should hack the accounts of Russian oligarchs in Putin’s circle. That would put a swift end to Russian hackery. So far as Donna Brazile, if she did give Hillary the public forum questions then it’s tough to imagine that it made any difference. It’s not as if the questions were anything but mundane or as if Hillary’s answers were anything to write home about. They were just standard talking points that she would be derelict not to have practiced regardless, and we all know that Hillary practices debates to the max.

    2. You meant to say “when” not “if” the Donald loses the election. And the answer is: (a) the Donald has already lost the election; (b) Pence is already permanently damaged by it.


    Dem NC-11

    • RightReformer October 14, 2016 at 5:55 pm

      Well apparently it was a death penalty question, so maybe Brazile thought it could potentially trip her up? But you’re right that I’d be shocked if Clinton didn’t have something prepared for that exact question.

      As to Pence, I think winning the VP debate rehabilitated him from the RFRA dispute in Indiana, and he gets to be the “conscious” of the ticket who keeps trying to keep Trump on the straight and narrow.


  • GatewayToTheWest October 14, 2016 at 5:54 pm

    1. No, the contents of the emails are more important than Russia allegedly hacking the emails. We also don’t have definitive proof that Putin himself was responsible. Democrats and Independents (who lean Democrat) should be saddened that top officials in the DNC did everything they could to rig the primary against the only honest person on their side to run. Also, the Cold War is over. We can create a safer world for generations to come if we improve relations with Putin and Russia. Retaliating against Russia would be a step in the wrong direction.

    2. No, I think Mike Pence can make the argument he tried to unite all wings of the party. If Trump loses, he can get a book deal, hit the speaker circuit, get a corporate job, etc.


    • krazen1211 October 15, 2016 at 1:42 pm

      Illegally leaking (or at least questionably legal) Donald Trump’s tax returns didn’t bother the left. I have no idea why anyone should care about the specific mechanisms of obtaining Hillary’s emails putting Catholics into the deplorables basket.

  • hbdrealist October 14, 2016 at 6:00 pm

    1) possibly
    2) Bob Dole was on a losing ticket and still won presidential nomination. So no.

  • dpmapper October 14, 2016 at 6:02 pm

    Almost every Republican who wasn’t #nevertrump has sustained damage, whether or not Trump loses the election.


    #neither

    • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 6:04 pm

      Rubio’s 10 pt Trump overperformance despite not revoking his endorsement says otherwise


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 7:43 pm

        He said almost and Rubio is as close to #NeverTrump as you can get. He’s stood by everything he’s previously said about Trump and basically has said the only person on the planet worst than Trump is Hillary.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • dpmapper October 14, 2016 at 8:11 pm

        It’s not *complete* damage. But he’s diminished in some respects, yes. I’d still vote for him, mind you.


        #neither

  • hbdrealist October 14, 2016 at 6:04 pm

    question about the midwest – the fact that so many of the midwest has seen people leave that part of the country for points elsewhere has made me wonder – how has that changed the politics of the area? In some ways you could say it might make the area more red but on the other hand look at areas like Mission Viejo or Santa Margarita, which pretty much always go republican. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the population there is 2-3 generations removed from the midwest.

    • jncca October 14, 2016 at 6:23 pm

      They vote GOP because they are wealthy and not in tech or Hollywood or other very liberal fields.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • hbdrealist October 14, 2016 at 11:29 pm

        still, I would think that a lot of white people in southern cal vote GOP, or at least the ones not in tech or the entertainment biz – and southern Cal was settled mostly by midwestern whites.

        Overall though – I’d say its a wash. I think it made the rural areas redder since a lot of the more liberal people moved to cities both within the midwest or outside the midwest while in the metro areas it probably made them more dem voting. Maybe the more GOP leaning people in places like Oakland or DuPage Counties lost there children to other states like TX or GA.

        • Republican Michigander October 15, 2016 at 12:03 am

          “””Maybe the more GOP leaning people in places like Oakland or DuPage Counties lost there children to other states like TX or GA.”””

          Oakland County changed due to migration. Dukakis won Southfield by 5000 back when Southfield was a white majority. Obama won Southfield by 33,000. Detroit’s middle class moved there. Farmington Hills was GOP until the late 90’s. Southfield was moving there. Repeat the pattern.

          There’s still a good GOP base in Northern and Western Oakland, but a lot of the former Oakland County Republicans later became Livingston County Republicans, while some moved to Lapeer or Northern Macomb Counties as well.


          MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

          • Red Oaks October 15, 2016 at 6:35 pm

            Yeah, Oakland County doesn’t vote like it used to. I was a resident there for over 12 years and just completed a move to Kent County (suburban Grand Rapids) this week. My move was within 30 days of this November’s election though so I’m still registered as an Oakland voter, which means L Brooks Patterson & co. will keep a GOP voter one last time.


            MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

        • Red Oaks October 15, 2016 at 6:47 pm

          The relative population share decline for the Midwest is more so due to to a lack of international immigration and migration in from the rest of the country than a mass of people moving to other parts of the US.

          While I’m no expert on DuPage, I don’t think Oakland loses that many people to other states. It does shed some folks to nearby counties like Republican Michigander noted and it doesn’t attract that many immigrants. The major reason for Oakland’s shift from Republican stronghold to competitive is the steady movement of people from south of 8 mile road.


          MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

  • AD123 October 14, 2016 at 6:08 pm

    How would Russian hackery be a bigger issue? By showing what a security risk it is to host classified information on a private server?

    • RightReformer October 14, 2016 at 6:11 pm

      Haha. That’s for sure!

      I think Dems would say it should be turned into a bigger issue by willfully ignoring the content of the Wikileaks releases and focusing instead on the fact that the hacking is happening in the first place.


    • Manhatlibertarian October 14, 2016 at 7:26 pm

      Hah good point about Clinton’s private server. But at some point in time it may be necessary to show the Russians that hacking can be a two way street and embarrassing for them. IMO Brazile did give the CNN question to the Clinton campaign. Whether it made any difference because Clinton already had an answer on the subject isn’t the issue. The issue is whether someone working in any capacity for CNN should be forwarding a debate question to one candidate that the other candidate doesn’t get to see in advance. The obvious answer is no that shouldn’t be the case. Things like this will be used by someone like Trump to claim the election is “rigged” even though in the end he basically has himself to blame for losing.

  • Tekzilla October 14, 2016 at 7:37 pm

    1. Possibly, but alas, its not the cycle for that.

    2. I think Pence is well positioned to be competitive in 2020. If Trump doesn’t run again he can likely claim at least a decent chunk of Trumps base to start out with (That is, if Trump doesn’t trash him post ED). I don’t think Pence can win a GE barring a major scandal or Recession, but he could possibly win the nomination. So he’s probably fine.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • Setsuna October 14, 2016 at 7:40 pm

    JMC Analytics has Cortez-Masto up 40-35, and 47-41 with leaners: http://www.lasvegasnow.com/news/new-poll-shows-cortez-masto-leading-senate-race-more-undecided-voters

    • Tekzilla October 14, 2016 at 7:42 pm

      IMO, unless Heck is up 3-5 at least on Election day in the aggregate, Masto wins.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • aas34 October 14, 2016 at 9:31 pm

        To be fair, the same was said about Heller too!

        Granted the circumstances are different, but Heck’s strength in the Vegas suburbs is a huge help to him.


        32, R, CA-2

        • NYC_DINO October 14, 2016 at 9:41 pm

          Yes, but Heller was up 4 points in the RCP average.

          • segmentation_fault October 14, 2016 at 9:51 pm

            And yes, he won by 1. But everything in the country turned out to be like 3 points bluer than the polls that year, not just NV.


            core dumped

            • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 9:56 pm

              Everyone always talks about Nevada polls being off but Iowa was just as wrong that year and no one talks about it for some reason.


              R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

              • roguemapper October 14, 2016 at 10:36 pm

                Iowa is swingy in a very similar manner as New Hampshire. They both tend to break hard at the end versus the polls. What else is there to say about them? It should be obvious which direction I think they’ll break in 2016.


                Dem NC-11

            • rdelbov October 14, 2016 at 9:56 pm

              In other words the RCP polling averages were no better then spinning a wheel. In close races they were off. Yup polling was off–can you imagine that as some folks here are quick to say “this poll is great for such and such a candidate” when in fact it close to being a guess.

  • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 7:47 pm

    Considering that Pence probably would have lost his gubernatorial re-election bid jumping on the Trump train for him was probably a net political plus for him. Assuming the man can live with himself after shilling for Donald Trump he can probably make a buck or two off of his experience and claim he “took one for the team”. As for 2020 after this fiasco of an election is over I have to believe the GOP will want to get as far away from anything and anyone with even a hint of Donald Trump around him.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Manhatlibertarian October 14, 2016 at 7:49 pm

    An interesting development in the voter fraud front. Manhattan Board of Elections Commissioner Alan Schulkin, a Dem, was secretly taped saying that the municipal ID card issued by NYC (available to just about any city resident including homeless people and illegal aliens) does not properly verify people’s identities and thereby enables people to commit voter fraud. He also states there are instances where political operatives in minority neighborhoods bus people to different voting sites, allowing for multiple voting by the same person, although he doesn’t give the details on how that is done. Of course (the very investigated) Mayor deBlasio denied this and attacked Schulkin, saying he should resign. The thing is he is a Dem and was secretly filmed saying this by Project Veritas, a conservative group, so why would he be making these things up?

    http://observer.com/2016/10/nyc-mayor-demands-elections-official-resign-over-crazy-claims-of-voter-fraud/

    • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 9:27 pm

      This is nothing new or newsworthy. Rep Grace Meng’s Dad Jimmy (before he went to jail on an unrelated bribery scheme) was involve with a voter fraud scheme as far back as 2004:
      http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/meng-aide-charged-voter-fraud-scam-article-1.262018

      What he was talking about is pretty much common knowledge by anyone familiar with NY elections and he fully admitted this on record on a non-hidden tape.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Manhatlibertarian October 15, 2016 at 11:46 am

        Yet deBlasio and other Dems are “shocked” by these “false” allegations of voter fraud and want Schulkin’s head for what he said. Didn’t you have a post a little while back where NYC investigators found that in the vast majority of instances where they pretended to be a voter they were allowed to vote? Maybe these fraudulent votes are not enough to effect the outcome of all but the closest elections, but it is still something our elected officials should be concerned about, instead of dismissing this information. And let’s not forget fraudulent absentee ballot “vote harvesters” and the fact that if you are not a citizen, you can still check off that you are on a voter registration form and no one is really checking to see if that is true.

  • OGGoldy October 14, 2016 at 7:54 pm

    Answers:

    1) It would be a big story in any other election cycle, but with the wild ride we’ve been on, international hacking to influence an election is back page news. It shouldn’t br a secret that every major country, including the US, is hacking into every other country. There are Russian spies in the US, US spies in China, and surely Chines spies in Russia. Espionage is not new, and won’t be ending any time soon.

    2) if Trump loses handily, and Gregg follows Pence in Indianapolis, then I believe he is permanently damaged. If Trump/Pence loses Indiana on top of that,, I think he is irreparably damaged, never to be taken serious again in politics.

  • hfcon October 14, 2016 at 7:56 pm

    1. Yes, the Russian hackery is an enormous story and it’s still being under-covered. This is a blatant attempt at outside interference in our elections and it suggests again that the Russians are getting quite good at figuring out ways to expand their influence without resorting to direct military contests (see their intervention in Syria and the Little Green Men in Ukraine). I would not be surprised if this kind of hacking continues in the future and we see more attempts since people are apparently horrendously stupid when it comes to phishing emails.

    Keep in mind that there are almost certainly the exact same kinds of emails that we’ve seen from the DNC and Hillary campaign out there at the RNC and among Republicans. We’re just not seeing them hacked/leaked–so far (I’d love to see the Hannity/Trump campaign emails for instance). On the other hand, it’s not at all surprising that friendly faces in the media are happy to help the Clinton campaign behind the scenes either, and it’s pretty amusing to see the interim chair of the DNC again doing over-the-top coordination with Clinton.

    2. Pence took a gamble here. His performance in the VP debate seems to have been what he was aiming for the whole time–a low-key, loyal attack dog who could raise his profile and come out of this looking presidential to all camps on the right. The last few weeks have probably undermined that and, if Gregg takes the governorship (as the recent poll seems likely), he’s going to see his standing in Indiana hurt too.


    PA-02

  • Manhatlibertarian October 14, 2016 at 8:35 pm

    The latest on absentee ballots requested by political party in 3 competitive states: Ia, Fla, NC. In Ia Dem ballots requested lead GOP ballots requested by 8.1, in Fla GOP ballots requested lead by 1.6 points and in NC GOP ballots requested lead by 8.8 points. The trend has been in the favor of the GOP in the last week in Ia and NC but in favor of the Dems in Fla. There are 2,905,772 absentee ballot requests in Fla, 343,634 in Ia, and 147,501 in NC.

    • Setsuna October 14, 2016 at 9:22 pm

      The comparison that matters isn’t this week to last week, it’s this week to this same week in 2012. Democrats are doing worse than 2012 in Iowa but considerably better than 2012 in North Carolina and Florida.

      • GOPTarHeel October 14, 2016 at 9:42 pm

        Democrats are slightly worse in NC right now compared to 2012. Luckily for them the GOP is doing horribly. So comparatively they’re doing better.


        R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

        • Setsuna October 14, 2016 at 9:49 pm

          Yeah, I meant comparatively. Sorry if my wording was confusing.

          • Manhatlibertarian October 15, 2016 at 11:58 am

            Well yes and no. What you say about historical comparisons is true for these three states but the problem is compared to 2012 a political party may be doing better with absentees in 2016 but they may be just “cannabilizing” votes that in the past were showing up in in person early voting or election day voting. There is no way at this point of time of knowing whether that is true or not. So IMO you might just as well look at the 2016 trend line for these absentees which has been favorable for the GOP in NC and Iowa but for the Dems in Fla. There are limitations using historical comparisons as well as with trend lines, so that is something to keep in mind.

  • Republican Michigander October 14, 2016 at 8:36 pm

    1. Hillary will win by crook if she has to. We all know that.

    2. Depends if Trump/Pence wins Indiana.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 9:29 pm

      Sadly because we nominated Trump she wont have to by crook.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • reedc October 14, 2016 at 8:50 pm

    The longer Pence continues to defend the indefensible the more and more his stock tanks. He’s in a terrible position.

    One, the people that would be most disposed towards his possible candidacy, coreTrump voters, probably have no loyalty to anyone not named Trump and Pence is a typical politician they enjoy screaming about. They’d hate him if he weren’t on the ticket and he won’t be in 2020. Also he’s not a populist so he won’t embrace their positions.

    Second, NeverTrumpers will never excuse him for his constant defense of Trump against what will likely be dozens of women.

    Finally they rest of the party will want to just move on. And they will have fresh faces who are not as bland as Pence from which to chose from.

    I don’t see a future for Pence. But I’m admittedly biased.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 15, 2016 at 2:27 am

      Fresh faces? What fresh faces?

      There aren’t many new Republicans entering the national stage this year. Presumably someone could become prominent in 2018, but even the Democrats at least chose to elect someone who served at least 4 years as Senator. 2014 didn’t see many new people just because it was mostly Republican incumbents winning again. I can’t name many Republican politicians that I would consider even to be plausible presidential candidates. Worthless Republican political consultants have done a pretty good at overhyping various mediocre Republican politicians – I still find it cathartically hilarious that the “MOST TALENTED REPUBLICAN FIELD EVER!!!” got completely styled on by a reality TV show star with no political experience.

      The Kasich campaign shows us the ceiling of someone like Hogan or Baker. Someone like Rubio or Pence could sneak in by just being a C-lister in a party of F-listers. Then again, the party might elect a total outsider again. Draft Ivanka?


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • krazen1211 October 14, 2016 at 9:17 pm

    Most Republicans are supporting our nominee because party loyalty and party unity are good things.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/for-many-gop-women-party-loyalty-trumps-personal-affront/

    • hfcon October 15, 2016 at 12:09 pm

      That and probably a good amount of motivated reasoning and responding to cues from party elites. It’s also why the party leadership needs to be responsible in who they nominate and support–partisanship is a powerful, blunt tool.


      PA-02

    • Republican Michigander October 15, 2016 at 12:55 pm

      That and the fact that the democrat nominee is Hillary Clinton who is lucky she’s not in prison.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • TexasR October 15, 2016 at 2:01 pm

      If we want more than 85% of Republicans to vote for the nominee, then we need to nominate a better candidate next time.


      Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
      Be careful what you wish for

  • RRR October 14, 2016 at 9:18 pm

    Hi from Moe’s Tavern in Lee, Massachusetts (in the Berkshires). I’m off to Manchester Center, Vermont for my annual New England fall foliage weekend.

    Anyway, Scarsdale Village Hall (where I ducked into during my drive up the Bronx River Parkway to snag a registration form and mail it in before today’s deadline) was out of non-photocopied registration forms (and here I was thinking that places like that had nearly universal registration among adults older than kids just living at home with their parents).

    I therefore dropped by the Westchester Board of Elections in White Plains. A man walked in with 700(!) completed registration forms, and the clerk said something like “you brought in more forms?!” Considering that he was black and seemingly community organizing, I’ll assume he’s a Democrat. Big anti-Trump surge there.

    The scene at that office was actually quite interesting. There was a ~55-year-old blue collar worker of some sort who had no idea how to register to vote and was very proud to vote this time (I’m sure for “Blue Collar ‘Billionaire'” Donald). He seemed like a Yonkers guy. There were also plenty of young minority voters registering, along with an old Korean (I think) couple asking for absentee ballots.

    Needless to say, I anticipate fascinating results out of Westchester this fall. A Yonkers precinct analysis will certainly be in order. I expect Trump to hold up very well in Italian-heavy areas and even outperform Romney among Yonkers whites. That said, he’ll rank in Bronxville, Scarsdale, Rye, Larchmont, Pound Ridge, Bedford, Chappaqua, etc.


    PA-02 via IL-09/NY-07; Bronxville Test conservative
    Steve Litzow for Congress!

  • Lucas Black October 14, 2016 at 9:27 pm

    1. Nothing is normal in this election. These emails, how they were published and what is in them would be a big deal in any other year. I know the Dems want to say that it’s a ‘nothingburger’ but the fact that somebody was feeding the candidate exact questions I think is a huge thing.

    2. I don’t see where Pence’s future is. I mean, if he wanted to run for Senate in 2018, I suppose he can do that. He wouldn’t be my first choice. But on a presidential level, I just don’t see it. Even without Trump, I don’t think he was exciting enough and now with every comment he’s made defending Trump ready to be hung around his neck, I don’t see why people who like his stands on the issues wouldn’t go for a ‘cleaner’ candidate instead.

    3. Have I told you lately how much I hate Donald Trump?

  • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 9:47 pm

    Just when you thought you couldnt see anything worst this year the “proof” of Trump’s innocence that his campaign has been claiming they will provide comes in the form of Anthony Gilberthorpe a man with a history of making unsubstantiated claims that he provided underage male prostitutes for politicians at the Conservative party’s annual conferences.

    Gilberthorpe claims he was sitting in 1st class on the plane with Donald Trump when he is alleged to have groped Jessica Leeds. For the record the 54 year old Gilberthorpe, a British national, would have been around 19 years old then and flying 1st class on a domestic US flight.

    This is Donald Trump’s character witness:
    https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/gilberthorpe-claims?bftwnews&utm_term=.afp88VRJ9#.qv3xxd61Q


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 9:59 pm

    On The Apprentice, Trump referred to Lil John as “Uncle Tom” even as staff begged him to stop using the phrase:
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/14/donald-trump-kept-calling-lil-jon-an-uncle-tom-celebrity-apprentice-staffers-say.html


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • reedc October 14, 2016 at 10:19 pm

      Yeah next week is “Trump is a racist week.” Let’s wait for the audio/video tapes of this…

    • reedc October 14, 2016 at 11:37 pm

      I also honestly think Trump is actually dumb enough to not know what that term means.

      • Left Coast Libertarian October 15, 2016 at 10:38 am

        I think it’s not dumb. It’s obliviousness. His ego is so large he doesn’t see anything else. Trump has been characterized as racist, sexist, and xenophobic, but he doesn’t actually have hate. He doesn’t see saying that the Mexican government is sending us rapists as hateful. It’s just what’s in his head at the time. He doesn’t see anything he does as offending or hurting women. He just doesn’t register how they feel in his head. Some might argue that’s the same thing. I’m not defending Trump here. Being unintentionally offensive is still a huge character flaw.

  • Izengabe October 14, 2016 at 10:03 pm

    Reading all these Trump scandals at once I feel a bit dazed. It reminds me of this explanation of why Mr. Burns is still alive:
    https://twitter.com/Izengabe_/status/778375087510712322


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • HS October 14, 2016 at 10:10 pm

    1. It is both a big deal that Brazille was helping Hillary cheat and that Russia is blatantly interfering in our elections. I don’t expect the former to lead to anything since this country is already in Banana Republic status and no one apparently cares about rectifying this problem. The Democrats will continue to cheat until they are stopped by someone who is willing to stop them, and no Republican is so far willing to do so. The latter, under another President, would have consequences, but President Obambi can’t stand up to any foreign power unless they are allied to us (see UK, Israel, Poland, etc.) And he knows they wont actually threaten him. In fact, the reason Putin is blatantly interfering is that he knows Obambi is a wuss who won’t do anything. It is the same reason Iran is shooting missiles at us near Yemen, and China is building it’s own islands in the South Pacific. Expect more along these lines until the new President. Then, if Hillary wins, we will see if her attack dog Carville was right and she has three ba#@s versus Obambi’s one.
    2. Pence will have a career if he wants it.

    • twinpines October 14, 2016 at 10:41 pm

      My question. What do we do to get the media back to being fair. It is very very well documented that the media is biased towards the corporate left and that needs to be changed. I am not sure the solution but the longer this goes on, the more heavy-handed the solution will need to be.


      AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

      • krazen1211 October 14, 2016 at 11:01 pm

        It is the single biggest problem that we have, and its one that all sides of our party, ranging from the Trumpistas to the these #Nevertrumpers all have to figure out together.

        Trump’s idea was libel laws. I suspect a better idea is tax reform that doesn’t give an advantage to these fiends at apple and google and generally people who are not voting for our party. Tim Cook goes to Congress and starts preening about cutting the corporate/repatriation tax rate. GOP proposes massive tax cuts for these folks, and then the big corporate CEOs of the world start bashing our party and our nominee!

        And yes, I know Tim Cook and his ilk donate some money to Paul Ryan so they can perpetuate the status quo. He’s buying off both sides in a way that Trump described. It’s blatantly obvious where their hearts lie.

        I would like to see a better alternative than weaponizing government. I am not sure that there is one.

        Earlier I think someone talked about how NCLB 2001 was a great bipartisan policy. Well, great. Those some monies got donated to these scum teachers unions who funded efforts against Bush’s own 2004 re-election. Stop doing that!

        • twinpines October 14, 2016 at 11:28 pm

          Tax reform is important. I hate being in the party of tax cuts for the rich. They should pay a decent rate and we need to raise capital gains to match the income tax rates and raise the tax rates for hedge fund managers who pay a special low rate. However none of this will fix the media issue. The dems need to realize it is in their interest to fix the media also because otherwise one day someone may be elected who just shuts down the media.


          AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

        • TexasR October 15, 2016 at 12:15 am

          If one wants to bill themselves as a conservative then, they believe that tax cuts for individuals and businesses are good because they help the economy and improve the business and regulatory climate. You don’t pursue those policies in order to reward your friends, or to pick winners and losers. If, however, using the government to pick winners and losers is your aim; then you’re in luck, because there’s already a party that believes in that.


          Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
          Be careful what you wish for

      • Republican Michigander October 14, 2016 at 11:28 pm

        The proven way to go after the media? Take their money away.

        Do we all have the discipline for that? I doubt it.

        Get a list of advertisers on ABC/CBS/NBC/MSNBC/CNN/FOX/Gannett/NYSlimes/Tribune/Politico/DailyShow and organize a boycott until the news is fair.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • HS October 15, 2016 at 12:20 am

        I don’t know what can be done.

        Basically, the problem is that the media and voters for one party – the Dems – believe defeating the other party is more important than following the rules or the law or being fair. As noted in this column: http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/10/the-liberal-medias-perpetual-smear-campaign.php
        they smear people like Trump, who may deserve it, and people like Romney, who don’t. And even when it comes to Trump, where they have a large number of valid targets, they still can smear him with things he certainly isn’t – like being anti-Semitic. It works so well that you have Republicans on this very site echoing the media/Dem talking points.

        To maintain a democracy/Republic, both sides (or all sides) must respect each other and play fair and by the rules. When this stops, it becomes impossible to keep the nation from becoming corrupt.

        The famous saying about the US was that we have created “a Republic, if you can keep it.” Well, we didn’t keep it. And it isn’t going to come back.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 15, 2016 at 2:08 am

          I’ve always felt that this was the dynamic behind the “cuckservative” slur. At a high level, people could draw racial connotations (there’s something weirdly racial about this in American culture), but the concept of a “cuckservative” has a connotation that fits pretty well with how most base voters perceive mainstream Republican politicians: as weak-willed spineless jellies who when subjected to the underhanded tactics you mention, respond by turning the other cheek or otherwise not punching back. The term is pretty good at expressing that sentiment on a very visceral level.

          A lot of people I know point out that their favorite part about Donald Trump is that he ALWAYS punches back, even when it’s not politically smart to do so. As opposed to a Republican establishment that literally never punches back on anything, always acquiesces as the “other side” escalates its unacceptable behavior, and has more or less been constantly humiliated.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • HS October 15, 2016 at 1:08 pm

            I try to avoid all this new lingo, so I have no idea what a cuckservative is.

            I am guessing this is the latest thing the media is publicizing along with the dreaded alt right – who I also had never heard of before this election. Every election cycle, the media pulls our chains, and we hear of a new evil conservative/Republican group that is now a unique danger to our nation. There were the dreaded neo cons, the tea baggers, the contract ON America people, the Christian Right, etc. Unfortunately, we keep falling for this game. As my brother used to say when he was a kid – we need to stop being such tool(s).

            The only real good thing about Trump is that, unlike most other Republicans, not including Cruz, he is willing and eager to fight back. Of course, he also has no judgment on what is worth fighting over, or how to fight, so he constantly sabotaged his own efforts. Cruz also has a similar problem, but he isn’t nearly as bad, and unlike Trump, he actually is a conservative.

            • Republican Michigander October 15, 2016 at 1:17 pm

              I first heard the term cuckservative from someone who was alt-right (legitimately alt-right). Basically it’s calling Trump’s primary opponents wimps and cuckold after getting walked over by being “weak.”


              MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

              • twinpines October 15, 2016 at 5:28 pm

                The term alt-right is new to me too. I still dont feel I really know what it means and wiki isnt very helpful. Id be curious how you define it or if anyone else on here willing to vote Trump would define it. I dont buy the ridiculous idea that every Trump supporter is alt-right.


                AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

                • jncca October 15, 2016 at 8:04 pm

                  The alt-right is the newest version of intellectual White supremacy that began with eugenics and has continued as a fringe intellectual movement. I think the main characteristics are a belief in Caucasian superiority. I would also add White separatists into that group. Jared Taylor being a good example. The key point is that they cannot just be random racists, but must use some form of intellectualism or faux-intellectualism.


                  24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

                  • GOPTarHeel October 15, 2016 at 8:52 pm

                    Eugenics was also a major project of the early progressive movement.


                    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

                    • jncca October 16, 2016 at 12:56 am

                      Yep, and the progressive movement was full of pseudo-intellectual White supremacy. To be fair, most of America was full of various kinds of it as well.


                      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

                  • twinpines October 16, 2016 at 1:04 am

                    My only complaint then is that the group should be called the alt-left. These ideas originally came out of the radical left with the KKK and margaret sanger. Both of which arose from the democratic party. These ideas must certainly be opposed. I would assume nutcase David duke and anti-jew are from the same vein of this alt garbage.


                    AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

                    • OGGoldy October 16, 2016 at 9:29 am

                      There is very much an alt-left, but it isn’t Donald Trump. I am not even going to go at length about left-right politics in the Dixiecrat and Rockefeller era. It’s all been concerned at length before everywhere. That being said, the al-left is a very real thing, and they are quite weird. Jill Stein, Dennis Kucinich, and Cynthia McKinney are the most pominent of them, with Bernie Sanders being on the fringe thereof. There are some weirdos in the alt-left sphere, as there are weirdos in the Alt-left sphere as well. And while both sides are off their rockers, that doesn’t mean they line up with one another temperamentally or ideologically.

                    • hbdrealist October 16, 2016 at 2:52 pm

                      @twinpines – there definitely is an alt-left out there. Think bloggers like jayman and youtube vloggers like Sargon, thunderf00t and the AA.

                    • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 16, 2016 at 3:26 pm

                      Are you just referring to left-of-center people who think the modern corporate-SJW establishment is ridiculous?

                      The problem is that probably does fall under the mainstream definition of the alt-right.


                      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                • Izengabe October 15, 2016 at 9:00 pm

                  National Review explains who the racist bastards of the alt-right are pretty well here:
                  http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433650/alt-rights-racism-moral-rot


                  Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • twinpines October 15, 2016 at 5:32 pm

              HS, you are so right. The next election the media will come up with something new and as with every other election, dumb replublicans will fight each other and refuse to vote for the nominee because theyve been played by the media. It happened with cancer causing, dog abusing, highschool bully, vulture capitalist romney. It happened to poor judgement, unhealthy, angry McCain with small town mayor Palin. The last part made me so mad at the media. They call Palin the mayor while Obama a senator. Palin was Gov, not mayor when she ran as VP. And republicans live in the clouds buying all this BS.


              AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

    • TexasR October 15, 2016 at 1:59 pm

      Yep. These Howard Stern clips were the real reason the Donald said “I’m tired of this politically correct crap.” He merely didn’t want to have to answer for it when they eventually got re-aired.


      Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
      Be careful what you wish for

  • Setsuna October 14, 2016 at 10:47 pm

    Bill Haslam just announced he’s not voting for Trump: http://wreg.com/2016/10/14/governor-haslam-explains-why-he-wont-be-voting-for-trump/

    • reedc October 14, 2016 at 11:11 pm

      He actually called on him to withdraw earlier.

      Haslam, with a family fortune (though not sure much has made its way to him) could be an intriguing choice in 2020. He’s done a remarkable job making helping to make TN’s economy one of if not the best in the south, and last I checked he was wildly popular. He won in 2014 carrying every county in the state (including Nashville-Davidson) and over 70% of the vote. That’s not normal for TN politics, as much as it might be for the Dakotas or a Utah. Doubt he wants to though.

      • reedc October 14, 2016 at 11:18 pm

        I should clarify that winning every county doesn’t usually happen. Governors have been reelected by wide margins but I also think I saw breaking 70% was unusual. I know Bredesen did in 2006 but pretty sure Haslam was first Republican to carry every county.

      • Son_of_the_South October 14, 2016 at 11:59 pm

        He’s way too moderate for me. He and his people have helped kill several conservative priorities including, but not limited to, school vouchers, constitutional carry, and licensing reform. He’s a decent man, but we can do much better than picking him.


        23, R, TN-08
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • segmentation_fault October 15, 2016 at 12:46 am

          He also did free community college


          core dumped

          • Son_of_the_South October 15, 2016 at 10:21 am

            Yeah. That’s actually not a terrible idea if the price were right, but it’s too expensive.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • hbdrealist October 15, 2016 at 3:50 pm

          for whatever reason, Tennessee has never had a lot of super conservative Rs. Guys like Haslam, Baker, Alexander seem par for the course. The most conservative person they’ve elected was probably Thompson.

          • GOPTarHeel October 15, 2016 at 4:45 pm

            This is a common phenomenon is areas that have longstanding GOP ties in the South.


            R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

            • rdelbov October 15, 2016 at 4:53 pm

              Might be like comparing a James Broyhill type republican and a Jesse Helms Republican. East TN republicans tend to be one sort while the ones from Western TN or even the Nashville suburbs tend to be another.

              Howard Baker defended his father in law’s work on the Voting Rights act during his 1964 and 1966 campaigns. Let’s just say that was not Strom Thurmond’s views.

          • Son_of_the_South October 15, 2016 at 6:08 pm

            Thompson was pretty conservative, but I’m pretty sure that Winfield Dunn holds the prize.

            As to why the relative moderates win often, it’s because money gets behind them early and because Tennessee voters and politicians tend to prioritize tightfistedness and friendliness to business. The state has the lowest debt per capita of any in the country, and woe be upon you if you balloon part of the state budget. Republicans were still successfully attacking Democrats for the Tenncare fiasco a decade after it happened, and there was an actual riot over the proposed income tax. Therefore, most successful politicians in the state, on both sides of the aisle, don’t usually overspend and will bend over backwards for business interests (hence Phil Bredesen). That has the problem of occasionally enforcing corporate social policy wishes to a somewhat larger extent than you would expect for a Southern state, but it also has reaped massive dividends for the state’s economy in recent years. Relatively moderate politicians usually do best when things are going well, and things are going pretty decently in Tennessee.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • NYC_DINO October 15, 2016 at 5:11 am

        His brother might make that tough.

  • Tekzilla October 14, 2016 at 10:48 pm

    From DCCyclone…

    VA-10: I just received fundraising e-mail from @LuAnnBennett(D) disclosing she’s up 48-44 over Comstock (R) in new internal.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • jncca October 14, 2016 at 10:52 pm

      Most likely Rs to be Trumpocalypsed are Yoder, Issa, Comstock, and I’m gonna say the wild card is Steve Pearce.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • twinpines October 14, 2016 at 11:24 pm

        I agree comstock is in trouble. That district will have a huge drop-off compared to romney numbers. Possibly the biggest nationwide. I do think pearce will be ok though. He is known already for being anti-immigrant and he represents a rural middle-class district that fits perfect trump well.


        AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

        • segmentation_fault October 15, 2016 at 12:55 am

          I guess Jncca is thinking Pearce could lose if Hispanic turnout is unexpectedly high, not because the whites in his district turn against him.


          core dumped

          • twinpines October 15, 2016 at 1:22 am

            But this is a red district with a lot of room for growth among the white population. I feel someone like Valado is much more vulnerable.


            AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

            • jncca October 15, 2016 at 2:06 am

              Pearce is the wild card, not the fourth most likely. He’s my pick for most likely Jim Ryun of 2016.


              24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • jncca October 15, 2016 at 2:06 am

        CO-6 flips if Clinton wins by 4. Trumpocalypse = 2008 national margins or worse.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • cer October 15, 2016 at 6:29 pm

        I lived in that CA district for several years, and trust me ISSA isn’t going to lose!


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • jncca October 15, 2016 at 8:06 pm

          The reason he could lose is that people like you left and Mexicans moved in!


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • californianintexas October 15, 2016 at 8:23 pm

            I don’t know if the reply is facetious or not, but the district is still over 60% white, so I don’t see Issa in serious danger unless a lot of those whites are liberal (which doesn’t look likely considering the district’s profile) or despise Trump so much they’d take it out on the whole Republican slate.


            34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

            • jncca October 15, 2016 at 8:33 pm

              Issa is seen as very partisan. It’s possible he loses soft R support, and that combined with a Dem lean this year could do him in.


              24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

              • Left Coast Libertarian October 15, 2016 at 11:39 pm

                Yes, Democrats hate Issa, but Republicans, especially those in this district, love him. He takes care of his district. Republicans here aren’t different than Republicans in Hunter’s district. Hunter just has more of them.

        • californianintexas October 15, 2016 at 8:14 pm

          I too have a hard time seeing Issa losing. It has been a while since I did serious number crunching, but I have yet to see a Democrat winning an R+4 district in California, especially one with significant military influence. McNerney came close when winning an R+3 district, but Issa is not scandal-tainted like Pombo was, and this is not 2006.


          34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • GOPTarHeel October 15, 2016 at 12:01 am

      Has the internal been published?

      I really wish we’d see more public House polling


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

  • reedc October 14, 2016 at 11:28 pm

    Tennessee Republican Party issues statement telling voters to vote their conscience.

    http://www.newschannel5.com/news/tennessee-republican-party-tells-voters-to-vote-their-conscience-in-presidential-election

  • hbdrealist October 14, 2016 at 11:32 pm

    another question – what congressional district has the highest number of people (as a % of the electorate) that are rich (define that whatever way you want) but have less than a four-year degree?

    My guess it would be somewhere like TX-22 and would be 15% of the electorate there.

    • Republican Michigander October 15, 2016 at 12:10 am

      Probably an energy based district. ND-AL? AK-AL? WY-AL? TX-11?


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • rdw72777 October 15, 2016 at 11:49 am

      Define rich? Wealth or income? What amounts of wealth or annual income?

  • hbdrealist October 15, 2016 at 1:25 am

    roguemapper – if you’re on here. I’m wondering if this is computer specific or if the whole thing is effed up. When I try to go on DRA – it loads up just fine – but when i click on the drop down to open a file or to click on a state – nothing happens.

    • roguemapper October 15, 2016 at 2:22 am

      It’s doing the same on my PC. It was working yesterday. I’ve seen it happen a couple times before but it was working again within a day or two. Dave might not realize it’s down though.


      Dem NC-11

  • twinpines October 15, 2016 at 1:46 am

    Interesting article. I think its due to more then just party loyalty. I think many republican women feel the Clintons are worse then Trump in this matter. My wife definitely feels this way. I think against a non-controversial dem, we would see a massive drop–off of women voters for the top of the ticket. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/for-many-gop-women-party-loyalty-trumps-personal-affront/?ex_cid=2016-forecast


    AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

    • GorrestFump October 15, 2016 at 3:54 am

      I do wonder how big of a win someone like Biden or say Klobuchar could’ve achieved had they been the nominee. 55-56%?

      • twinpines October 15, 2016 at 4:53 am

        I think someone like Klobuchar who has a basically spotless margin and history of ruuning up massive landslides would replicate the landslide at the national level. While voters are partisan, elections show that good candidates can win landslides against bad candidates. At the national level, we havent seen this because both parties usually choose good candidates.


        AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

        • Left Coast Libertarian October 15, 2016 at 10:43 am

          I’m not sure of that. The higher up we go the more partisanship matters to people. If Trump gets 38% of the vote against Clinton, that’s a sign that 38% will vote for a Republican no matter what. Klobuchar would get some of the 3rd party votes that Clinton won’t get. So Trump might lose to Clinton 48%-38%, but to Klobuchar 57%-38%.

          • twinpines October 15, 2016 at 5:20 pm

            I dont agree. Many people wont throw their vote away on a third party. They rightly see the vote as between Hillary and Trump. Hillary is driving the votes to Trump. If she was non offensive, Trump would lose alot. If you don’t agree, look at a race between someone considered non-offensive vs a criminal. Like the race when congressman Cao got elected in Lousiana.


            AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

            • Left Coast Libertarian October 15, 2016 at 6:45 pm

              There is no comparison between a congressional race and the Presidential race. A President has a huge amount of power. A congressman is one of 435. In a congressional race people will vote for a party they despise if their own nominee is a criminal. It doesn’t work that way in a Presidential race. There is a percentage of people who’ll never vote for a Democrats no matter how non-offensive he or she is and not matter how little they like the Republican.

              Down ballot people throw away their vote on 3rd parties all the time, especially in some states like Minnesota and Maine. They haven’t done it in Presidential races, but then there’s never been a Republican nominee like Trump. You have Republicans who’d never vote for Clinton but won’t vote for Trump because they find him unacceptable. Clinton doesn’t become acceptable at this point, any more than Klobuchar does. They might leave the Presidential race blank if they don’t vote third party. In California congressional races a lot of Republicans leave a congressional race blank if it’s between two Democrats.

              • Lucas Black October 15, 2016 at 6:51 pm

                Um…19% voted for Perot.

                • rdelbov October 15, 2016 at 7:02 pm

                  somewhat of an exception that proves the rule–in the debates and so forth.

                  Perot spent 60 million on his campaign in 1992 and that would be about 120 million today–

              • Red Oaks October 15, 2016 at 7:25 pm

                To be fair a lot of those throw away votes on third parties in down ballot races involve situations where either a Dem or GOPer doesn’t make the ballot at all.

                Also, millions of people voted for George Wallace (1968), John Anderson (1980) and Ross Perot (1992 & 1996) for President without any corresponding support for third parties down ballot. Similarly Ralph Nader generally did better as a Presidential candidate than the Green Party’s nominees for down ballot races did.


                MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

              • Izengabe October 15, 2016 at 9:01 pm

                Considering that Evan McMullin has a very good shot at winning Utah I wouldnt consider a vote for him as “throwing your vote away”.


                Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 15, 2016 at 2:01 am

    1. Not really a huge problem. For one, there’s no concrete proof that it’s actually Russian hackers. It could be a random 400lb dude in his bed. Regardless of who’s behind it, they’re basically only revealing things that are true. This isn’t like when the KGB started fake conspiracy theories about Reagan creating AIDS. If the truth is an attack on American foreign policy interests, then we need to reevaluate our interests. Would the Pentagon Papers been less worrying if the journalist was French or Russian? And I wouldn’t really use the term retaliation. America exposing corrupt Russian oligarchs is good for Russia in the same way that Russia? exposing corrupt America oligarchs was good for America.

    2. Pence was always going to be permanently damaged. He was probably going to badly lose his race for re-election in Indiana. The way it looks, Pence seems to have gotten a huge boost from accepting the VP, because at the very least, it gave him an opportunity to totally clown on Kaine. His political career got a really unexpected second wind.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • aggou October 15, 2016 at 7:28 am

    Amusingly, For the final week or what was to be the final week of registering to vote in NC, R’s ran ahead of D’s by around 300-400 voters. UNA were the big winners as has been typical, registering 19k. R’s were around 6.2k and D’s around 5.9k.

    This probably won’t mean much for the Presidential race, but every extra R does help McCrory and Burr, per polling.

    • GOPTarHeel October 15, 2016 at 9:49 am

      Wow. What’s the racial breakdown?


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • aggou October 15, 2016 at 10:21 am

        Didn’t have time to check.

      • Manhatlibertarian October 15, 2016 at 12:32 pm

        I looked at the carolinatransparency.com website and voter registration figures for the first week of October indicated the black voter figure at about 18%, which is about 4 points below the approximately 22% figure for total voter registration; so at least for the first week of October there is no evidence of a surge in black voter registration. There is however, a surge in the Other category, which I assume includes Hispanics, Asians, Native Americans and people who define themselves as mixed race. While they only make up about 8% of total NC registrants, they make up about 25% of the registrants for the first week of October.

        • aggou October 15, 2016 at 1:24 pm

          North Carolina Board of Elections website lists other generally as anything other than Native American, Black, and Hispanic.

          http://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/

          • Manhatlibertarian October 15, 2016 at 1:56 pm

            So that would only leave Asians and mixed race people for the Other category, yet they make up 25% of new registrants. I notice the ncsbe figures have 3 times as many Other registrants than Hispanics. Yet Hispanics made up 8.4% of the population in 2010, probably more now. These Other numbers just don’t seem right to me; I wonder if somehow a number of Hispanics have wound up in the Other category.

    • OGGoldy October 15, 2016 at 10:21 am

      First Montana poll we’ve seen?

    • Tekzilla October 15, 2016 at 12:17 pm

      Of course nothing on MT-GOV. UGH.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • Manhatlibertarian October 15, 2016 at 12:37 pm

        Of course they never give you what you really want. I would be very surprised from what I’ve read if Bullock doesn’t have a big lead, but we will see sooner or later. I assume at some point some Montana media outlet will do a Gov poll.

      • cinyc October 15, 2016 at 2:37 pm

        It’s a poll for a newspaper group. Chances are, they polled the governor’s race but are holding those results for tomorrow or another day so that they can sell more newspapers. I seem to recall the Lee newspapers doing that for their prior Montana polls.

  • hfcon October 15, 2016 at 12:19 pm

    Two observations with 3 weeks to go:
    1) I’m surprised Gary Johnson is continuing to poll as strongly as he does in a lot of these polls. Remember, he was polling at 3-4 % in 2012 in many polls and ended up around 1%. Is his support going to stay around the 6% level that he’s currently at now or will it collapse to say 2%? And if so, where will his voters go?

    2) For awhile there was a lot of talk about the lack of turnout machinery on the part of the Trump campaign and Clinton’s big investments in it. That seems to have stopped now, but it’s not quite clear why especially since early voting is started. Is the GOP turnout machine in each state (with the aid of the RNC) going to be able to pick up the slack? That’s kind of the impression that I’ve gotten, but I’m not sure.


    PA-02

    • Izengabe October 15, 2016 at 2:08 pm

      If women keep coming out accusing the GOP nominee for President of the United States of unwanted grabbing of their pussy then my hunch is that any semi-reasonable third name on the ballot will do very well. I’m more surprised at how badly Gary Johnson has blown his opportunity. It’s almost a same that Bob Barr didnt wait 8 years to run for the Libertarian presidential nomination


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • andyroo312 October 15, 2016 at 5:51 pm

      I suspect Johnson winds up right around 4 percent in the end, with Stein at 1 percent. He might muster about 13 percent in New Mexico.


      MA-7

    • NYC_DINO October 15, 2016 at 7:31 pm

      How big a deal is it if the Libertarian Party gets public funding in future elections by crossing the 5% threshold in 2016?

      • rdw72777 October 15, 2016 at 11:13 pm

        I can’t imagine Johnson would do anything meaningful with an extra $10 million in funds. I doubt the 2020 nominee will be any better than Johnson

        • NYC_DINO October 16, 2016 at 9:41 am

          Right, I guess I’m just thinking, are Republicans voting Johnson creating trouble for themselves in the future, if it say, chops 1% of the vote off of House and Senate candidates going forward because now the Libertarians in those race benefit from money being spent.

          I’m guessing no, but it seems like something worth considering.

  • Manhatlibertarian October 15, 2016 at 12:57 pm

    North Carolina Superior Court Judge Donald Stephens has ordered voter registration extended through Wednesday of next week in the 36 flood affected counties getting assistance from FEMA, responding to a lawsuit by Dem party officials. For other counties the deadline closed yesterday as scheduled. Don’t necessarily know if one party or another is really helped by this because I don’t know the specific counties affected, except I assume they are mainly in the eastern part of the state. In any event GOP registration has been running ahead of Dem registration in the last week according to AGGOU above.

    Note that unlike Florida, where the judge extended voter registration statewide to Oct. 18, the NC judge extended voter registration only in areas affected by the flooding not the entire state, which makes more sense. There are many Fla counties not really affected by the storm, but the judge wanted to cater to the Dems suing by making it statewide.

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/14/politics/north-carolina-voter-registration-deadline-extended/index.html

  • Manhatlibertarian October 15, 2016 at 1:22 pm

    The latest from the leaked emails is that the nation of Qatar appears to have pledged about $1 million to the Clinton Foundation while she was SOS, despite her pledge not to have the Foundation accept foreign government contributions while she was SOS unless there was approval from the State Dept. ethics board. There is no record of such approval. In return for the donation the Qatar ambassador wanted to meet with Bill Clinton. Not clear if that happened.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-clinton-idUSKBN12E21F

    • AD123 October 15, 2016 at 5:55 pm

      We are in a new Gilded Age in more ways than one. The question is who will be the TR to lead us out…

  • Manhatlibertarian October 15, 2016 at 1:43 pm

    The Log Cabin Republicans, an LGBT group, has endorsed 7 GOP members of Congress. The organization describes them as “common sense conservatives” who have spoken out and voted in favor of equality. The members of Congress are: Curbelo (Fla), Ros-Lehtinen (Fla), Katko (NY), LoBiondo (NJ), Dold (Ill), Dent (Pa) and Coffman (Colo).

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article108295642.html

    • Wahoowa October 15, 2016 at 3:17 pm

      I continue to be amazed at how successful Mike Coffman has been at tricking people into thinking he’s a moderate. I still remember when he ran under the old district lines and positioned himself as Tom Tancredo part deux. And as for the Log Cabin Republicans, Coffman repeatedly refused to speak at Denver Metro YR meetings because they were meeting in the back room of a gay bar (on the same night as drag bingo IIRC).

      Funny thing is that Coffman’s not even a particularly good politician (Not particularly bad either, but Ed Perlmutter would run circles around him if they ever got thrown into the same district.) Is just that Dems in Colorado aren’t particularly good at honing in on his vulnerabilities and instead try to just run on the national mood + a bunch of played-out abortion ads.


      CO-7

      • rdelbov October 15, 2016 at 4:39 pm

        Geography is so often destiny. The 2012 and 2014 foes of Coffman were Denver liberals who carpetbagged into this seat. Morgan Carroll at least lives in a city in the district. Saying that Coffman’s strength in parts of Aurora has served him well in the past

  • Manhatlibertarian October 15, 2016 at 2:21 pm

    Don’t think this poll has been posted before:

    8 News NOW -Nevada

    C 43
    T 41
    J 4

    Stein in not on the ballot in Nevada. Shows the race is still close there. Wonder how many votes Nevada’s unique “None of the Above” line will get; probably will be record breaking.

    • district1 October 15, 2016 at 2:37 pm

      People expected a record-breaking “None” vote in 2010 and it didn’t happen (only 2%). More likely the None of the Above types just don’t show up.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

      • Izengabe October 15, 2016 at 9:04 pm

        None of these candidates was included in the poll. It got 3% in Prez race and 4% in USSEN race


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • kewgardens October 15, 2016 at 2:41 pm

      Surprised that Johnson is polling this poorly in Nevada. But I guess that is because NOTA is an option for the Nevada electorate.

  • californianintexas October 15, 2016 at 3:03 pm

    Found this in a link from Dan Mitchell’s blog:

    “13. My prediction of a 98% chance of Trump winning stays the same. Clinton just took the fight to Trump’s home field. None of this was a case of clever strategy or persuasion on Trump’s part. But if the new battleground is spousal fidelity, you have to like Trump’s chances.

    14. Trump wasn’t running for Pope. He never claimed moral authority. His proposition has been that he’s an asshole (essentially), but we need an asshole to fight ISIS, ignore lobbyists, and beat up Congress. Does it change anything to have confirmation that he is exactly what you thought he was?”

    I wonder how true this “98% chance” really will be? Scott Adams did predict Trump would win the primaries, so I am hesitant to dismiss him this time.


    34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • roguemapper October 15, 2016 at 3:14 pm

      There is a -98% chance that this is true.


      Dem NC-11

      • Wahoowa October 15, 2016 at 3:19 pm

        Yeah, this is delusional wishcasting.


        CO-7

    • roguemapper October 15, 2016 at 4:03 pm

      What makes this 98% chance especially comical is that Scott Adams switched his own endorsement from the Donald to Gary Johnson after the dozen plus women who have described the Donald’s sexual abuse started to go public.


      Dem NC-11

    • district1 October 15, 2016 at 4:12 pm

      Every single poster on this site is a better political pundit than Scott Adams so I’m not sure why you would hesitate to dismiss him.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

      • rdw72777 October 15, 2016 at 5:15 pm

        Because like a broken calendar he was correct one time this year.

  • andyroo312 October 15, 2016 at 5:53 pm

    Re: Pence, I suspect his inevitable 2020 campaign will fare about comparably to Edwards ’08 in terms of success.


    MA-7

  • hfcon October 15, 2016 at 5:56 pm

    Interesting fundraising update: Clinton campaign raised $154 million in Sept, Trump about $100 million. Trump’s own donations to his campaign have been severely curtailed since the early spring. Clinton went into Oct. with twice the amount of COH ($150 mil) compared to Trump and more than twice the number of closing-week TV ads booked. http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-15/trump-continued-to-trail-clinton-s-fundraising-in-september


    PA-02

  • District101 October 15, 2016 at 6:06 pm

    1) Yes, there should be a bigger focus on Putin trying to get his best friend elected as president
    2) Yep, Pence’s career is ruined now.


    Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

    • GOPTarHeel October 15, 2016 at 6:15 pm

      Amazing how Putin went from strategic partner to new Hitler in the span of 4 years.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • twinpines October 15, 2016 at 6:31 pm

        Ah yes, depends on whatever is most beneficial to the dems. What the real problem should be is why do we elect someone who inadvertenly spills our secrets to russia through their actions. But in an alternative universe we would have a fair media. Our country is truly becoming a banana republic and american voters dont even realize it. I didnt either until my wife started pointing out how everything the dems do is just like how the china communistvact. Even up to the fact that communist china is more like the corporate left then they are to other communist countries like cuba or north korea.


        AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

      • hfcon October 15, 2016 at 6:52 pm

        Less Putin and more Russia as a whole–from 2008-2010, Medvedev seemed considerably more moderate than Putin (and, in general, he was). Then Putin got nervous and took over everything again by 2012 to pursue a much harder-line policy.


        PA-02

        • GOPTarHeel October 15, 2016 at 6:57 pm

          I know, but Russia was threatening in 2012 yet Romney was mocked mercilessly for wanting a hardline against them


          R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

  • district1 October 15, 2016 at 6:15 pm

    In California news, I am seeing wall-to-wall ads opposing Proposition 61: https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_61,_Drug_Price_Standards_(2016)

    The messengers are as good as you can buy (veterans, doctors) but they don’t actually explain why the proposal would have negative effects like raising Rx prices for veterans. No “it’s poorly written so…” or “special interests have inserted language that…” or “they claim it will do X but actually…” The core claim is that drug prices for veterans will increase if the proposal passes.

    Of course, drug prices for veterans will only go up if pharmaceutical companies decide to respond to its passage by raising wholesale prices or ending discounts that they offer to the VA system, so perhaps it’s not a surprise the ads don’t mention that.

    I’m probably voting no. The most recent Field Poll has it up 50-16 which is not a good spot for the Yes side.


    ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

    • GOPTarHeel October 15, 2016 at 6:30 pm

      You don’t think drug companies would increase prices for veterans in response to this? Why not? They aren’t going to sacrifice the profitability of selling drugs to CA Medicaid patients over a PR hit


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • district1 October 15, 2016 at 6:38 pm

        I don’t necessarily disagree with you on a policy level… I was referring to the messaging they use in their spots, which sounds even more hollow and vapid than usual for these hollow and vapid campaigns since they don’t even bother to explain why it will happen (for good reason).


        ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

        • GOPTarHeel October 15, 2016 at 6:44 pm

          I guess a direct threat from drug companies wouldn’t be very effective messaging


          R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

  • Red Oaks October 15, 2016 at 7:01 pm

    Accounting Today, a major publication in my profession, released a survey of accounting professionals yesterday that interestingly found that more of us are concerned with US Senate control that the Presidential race (by a 48-32 margin). Trump leads Clinton among accountants 38-32 but my sense is that is an underperformance for a Republican.


    MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

    • hbdrealist October 15, 2016 at 7:37 pm

      both my parents are accountants interestingly enough – dad for clinton, mom for trump.

  • Ryan_in_SEPA October 15, 2016 at 8:00 pm

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/20161015_ap_cbf26a43ceee4d88a8ad49521e96278c.html

    Trump campaign goes to war with Ohio GOP chairman.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • TexasR October 15, 2016 at 11:10 pm

      What would a plant be doing differently?


      Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
      Be careful what you wish for

      • Left Coast Libertarian October 16, 2016 at 11:55 am

        I was thinking the same thing. If Trump were a plant he’d woo a segment of Republican voters and then lead them away from Republicans permanently. That’d give future elections to the Democrats. Sure, there’s a Trumpian explanation to his behavior but the worst case scenario isn’t losing this election, either Presidential or down ballot, but losing future elections because of Trump.

        • krazen1211 October 16, 2016 at 6:13 pm

          Well, this plant theory is rather absurd given that the Donald is going thermonuclear.

          The Donald is a cornered animal and he’s going personal. I mean, he dragged out Slick Bill’s harem of side women and stuck them in everyone’s face! Are Chelsea and Ivanka going to still be friends after this? I am not so sure.

          I don’t really mind, though, because Cruella Deville deserves Scorched Earth Donald, and we might as well let him drag everyone into the mud. As long as the Donald detonates his suicide vest in their direction rather than towards our candidates, that might be useful for us. At the least it might make it harder for Hillary to loot the public treasury.

  • RogueBeaver October 15, 2016 at 8:45 pm

    Add RuPaul to the list of people alleging DT groped them. http://worldnewsdailyreport.com/rupaul-claims-trump-touched-him-inappropriately-in-the-1990s/


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • GOPTarHeel October 15, 2016 at 8:51 pm

      If World News Daily Report says it, it must be so


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • w920us October 15, 2016 at 8:59 pm

      IMHO, At this point it’s becoming comical. And if this gets much publicity it’ll throw into doubt all the other accusers allegations.


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • Izengabe October 15, 2016 at 9:08 pm

        We’ve got video proof of Donald Trump groping a drag queen in 2000:
        https://youtu.be/4IrE6FMpai8


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • w920us October 15, 2016 at 9:14 pm

          LOL.


          R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
          #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • roguemapper October 15, 2016 at 9:21 pm

        I don’t doubt that a drunk Donald would grope a drag queen. What I doubt is that the Donald would grope a black drag queen.


        Dem NC-11

        • jncca October 16, 2016 at 12:59 am

          Except Trump doesn’t drink. At all. This is well-documented.


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • roguemapper October 16, 2016 at 2:06 am

            How would you know the difference? Ok, that slipped my mind, but I have no doubt that the Donald is clueless enough to grope a drag queen anyhow!


            Dem NC-11

            • californianintexas October 16, 2016 at 2:57 am

              Well, sleep deprivation has about the same effects on people as alcohol. So there isn’t much difference between a drunk Trump or a sleep-deprived Trump, considering he averages about 4 hours of sleep a night. Probably less since he announced for president.


              34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

              • Manhatlibertarian October 16, 2016 at 1:14 pm

                Yeah I had a bout of insomnia a couple of years ago where on many nights I only got about 3 to 4 hours of sleep, partly due to a new blood pressure medication I was taking. I weaned off the medication but still had problems but I’ve taken a variety of actions since then to help my sleep so that now I average 5 to 5 1/2 hours, which is much better. Let me tell you operating on 3 to 4 hours sleep most of the time makes anything beyond simple actions more difficult and affects your judgement and makes you more irritable. So that may explain some of Trump’s odd behavior. Rather than using Twitter in the middle of the night he should be looking at ways to get more sleep.

          • w920us October 16, 2016 at 8:58 am

            Wow, I had no idea of that fact.


            R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
            #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • cinyc October 15, 2016 at 9:16 pm

      World News Daily Report is the same satirical newspaper that claimed Yoko Ono had an affair with Hillary Clinton. It’s all not true, just satire.

    • krazen1211 October 15, 2016 at 9:25 pm

      Link is broken for me, but this victim is a man? Grab him by the penis or something?

      Maybe Trump doesn’t discriminate.

  • roguemapper October 15, 2016 at 10:09 pm

    From Dave on DRA:

    “My ISP migrated their servers on Thursday night (6pm PT) and I’ll bet that’s when it stopped working. It may be a few days before I can get it fixed as I am on the road. Thanks for letting me know. I just got email from a couple of others, too.”


    Dem NC-11

    • Son_of_the_South October 15, 2016 at 11:58 pm

      Thanks for the update.


      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • District101 October 16, 2016 at 7:55 pm

      He’s getting it fixed, don’t worry, he said he has a ticket in and is working on it.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

  • Izengabe October 15, 2016 at 10:29 pm

    At the Republican Hindu Coalition event at which Donald Trump declared “I am a big fan of Hindu and a big fan of India” this happened:
    https://twitter.com/ArifCRafiq/status/787425879492296704
    I’m pretty sure this was the act Trump wanted for the RNC before Reince overruled him.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • segmentation_fault October 16, 2016 at 1:13 am

      LOL. Those jihadists had lightsabers.


      core dumped

  • cinyc October 15, 2016 at 10:54 pm

    Drudge Report is reporting that the ABC News/Washington Post National poll that drops around midnight will be Clinton+4. That’s presumably in the 4-way, but Drudge provides no further info or link, just Developing…

  • MosheM October 16, 2016 at 12:12 am

    Brand new national ABC/Post poll of likely voters just released at midnight:

    Clinton 47
    Trump 43
    Johnson 5
    Stein 2

    https://t.co/vgjTPadTjx


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • dforston October 16, 2016 at 12:14 am

      Full results – https://t.co/PpBo508faI

      • dforston October 16, 2016 at 12:19 am

        Generic Ballot – D+3

        • Son_of_the_South October 16, 2016 at 12:25 am

          I’ll take it. We can handle D+3.


          23, R, TN-08
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • rdelbov October 16, 2016 at 8:09 am

          Depends on who turns out. This poll shows a +8 D electorate–2008 like. Will that happen? I guess we will see

  • Republican Michigander October 16, 2016 at 1:23 am

    According to Gongwer’s tweets (MI Insiders Political Online mag), Cook moved my district (MI-08) from Strong R to Lean R. Latest dems poll had Bishop up 6.

    Turnout is the biggest key in my district. Ingham County is going to be strong for D’s as it always is. Will R’s turn out in Livingston and North Oakland. Will the Trump defectors show up and/or punish all R’s? Will the Trump base punish R’s downticket for not supporting him enough? Those are the three questions. Trump won all three counties in the primary, but with under 40%. There’s some bleeding, particularly among social conservatives. Lots of planned nose holding (myself included).

    Am I nervous? I am, although not because of Mike Bishop who isn’t likely going to hurt us. I’m nervous of a depressed turnout in the base areas.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • twinpines October 16, 2016 at 3:24 am

      In a bad night, we could lose 4 seats in MI.


      AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

      • Republican Michigander October 16, 2016 at 11:30 am

        This is reminding me of 1998 in some ways in reverse (Trump’s the Fieger, although Hillary is much more disliked than John Engler across the board instead of just teachers and state workers). R’s did take the state house that year, kept the state Senate, and went after four seats to some extent (Stupak, Levin, Stabenow, Bonior), but couldn’t pull it off. If (and it’s a big if) 1998 is an indication, we’ll be okay at the congressional level. We don’t flip congressional seats often here unless through redistricting.

        The one that (from a distance) scares me is actually MI-06, if Upton’s caught offguard. That district has a solid D base in Kalamazoo (and smaller one in Benton Harbor), a lot of moderates in the Portage area, and a lot of Cruz social conservatives who don’t like Trump.

        MI-01 and MI-07 (although I think Walberg is a better candidate than people give him credit for) battles aren’t new. I think Walberg survives, and I think Bergman’s work ethic will tell the tale there.
        MI-06 – I think Upton survives, but 51-48 won’t shock me.
        MI-08 – Trouble IF turnout is bad (High in Lansing area, low elsewhere).
        I haven’t heard much about MI-11. That’s probably a good thing.
        MI-10 is probably the most Trumpian district in the state so I’m not worried there.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • District101 October 16, 2016 at 7:53 pm

          Doesn’t seem Walberg is doing quite good, Driskell outraised him in the latest fundraising quarter and is outspending him about 5-1 according to MetroGnome. Shkreli in MI-08 outraised Bishop too, shockingly. I think at least 2 seats fall to Democrats in Michigan (1 and 7, next seats to fall will be 8, then 6, then 11, then 10, then 4, 3, and 2).


          Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

          • Republican Michigander October 16, 2016 at 9:14 pm

            It’s the cash on hand numbers that are important as of 9-30-2016. Shkreli has 150K cash on hand. Mike Bishop has 900K. Bishop is also absentee chasing. I’m unaware if Shkreli is, but that’s not cheap and my county is heavy absentee.

            As for MI-07, . Walberg’s still got 1.1 million cash on hand for October, more than Driskell (who doesn’t half 1/2 of Scio Twp in her corner since it’s Dingell’s district). Driskell is giving Walberg a bigger race than Pam Byrnes (who was state rep before Driskell). Byrnes raised/spent 1.2Mill and had 280K cash on hand at the same point.

            I’m not betting against Walberg. Walberg always has a strong floor and strong core support group (Religious voters) which runs ahead of the presidential ticket. The one time he lost was in 2008 when he was abandoned by NRSC completely against Mark Schauer (much stronger candidate than Driskell was then) before beating him in the rematch. Walberg’s battled some tough opponents in both primaries and generals, all in swing or at best slightly lean R districts. He beat Doug Spade for state rep (who took Walberg’s spot after term limits). He was the first to beat Schauer (who was very strong before he lost a gubernatorial run). Pam Byrnes wasn’t a joke. Driskell I’d put in terms of candidate quality between Byrnes and Spade/Schauer.

            I think the only way the dems take MI-07 is with a complete Trump collapse everywhere in the state. I think MI-07 is more Trump friendly (than MI-08 or especially MI-06) with the exception of 1/2 of Eaton County and 1/2 of Walberg’s part of Washtenaw (It could go either way in Manchester). I don’t think Trump sells in Hillsdale or Spring Arbor, but Walberg can probably get that vote and Spring Arbor vote out for HIM directly since he used to be a Pastor before being a state rep.


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • twinpines October 16, 2016 at 3:56 am

      Really I dont understand how people who claim to be republicans could vote for the most corrupt politician in the history of America. Watergate, which in every objective way was super minor compared to Hillary caused a massive media uproar, but this mess causes nothing. I know some say trump, trump, trump. But I dont buy it, the mess existed before Trump was nominated and he never put the security of this nation in jeopardy by his actions. I would die then vote for a politician who basically betrayed her country. I feel so disgusted that she is about to win on the backs of so called republicans. This is a disaster. A criminal cover-up. End of rant.


      AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

      • twinpines October 16, 2016 at 4:00 am

        By the way, Id vote for a communist with a clean record before Id vote for clinton. Her crimes could never warrant a vote from me. If we had an honest media, she would be in jail. She would have been convicted. Instead, the media and clinton conived together to play the republicans masterfully as they always do. When will republicans wake up and stop being played. I dont know but Im happy to let this country get taken over by socialists if that will prevent Clinton and her corrupt team from running this place.


        AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

        • District101 October 16, 2016 at 7:47 pm

          A Communist. You would vote for a Communist over Clinton. I wouldn’t vote for a Communist over anyone, for I hate Communism, and to me Communism associates with the USSR still, and stuff like the Berlin Wall. Why should she have been in jail? I honestly don’t know what she did that’s so bad to people. Seriously, I don’t know.


          Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

      • cer October 16, 2016 at 11:10 am

        I’m a Republican, and I’m not voting for either of them.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

    • kewgardens October 16, 2016 at 4:03 am

      Do you think this has any legs? Seems pretty bad if true.

      • twinpines October 16, 2016 at 4:05 am

        Not with our media. Are you kidding. We give millions in cash to Iran and nobody cares. If republicans acted this way, wall to wall coverage. When will republicans stop allowing the media to have a double standard.


        AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

      • Manhatlibertarian October 16, 2016 at 12:03 pm

        The key question is did Patrick Kennedy act alone, or was he acting on behalf of a key Clinton aide like say Podesta. Don’t know if we will find this out before election day. So is a negative for Clinton but the MSM will not pay much attention to it unless Kennedy can be linked to key high ranking Clinton campaign officials in his actions. Anyway the MSM is more interested in juicy sex scandals than dealing with attempts to mess with classified document classifications.

        • HS October 16, 2016 at 3:22 pm

          I don’t think more corruption stories about Clinton matter. Everyone already knows that she is corrupt. If it wasn’t so disturbing, it would be fascinating. Of course, I also don’t think that any more sexual scandals are going to hurt Trump either. Once again, this is priced in.

  • Tekzilla October 16, 2016 at 9:01 am

    CBS

    Nevada: HRC 46, DJT 40
    Utah: DJT 37, HRC 20, McM 20


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • aggou October 16, 2016 at 9:03 am

      Well that’s a very different UT poll result than others we’ve seen.

    • reedc October 16, 2016 at 10:13 am

      Trump in fourth place by a lot amongst likely voters under 30 in Utah. McMullin at 33% and in first in that demo

      • hfcon October 16, 2016 at 11:32 am

        And Trump’s at 61% with the 65+ crowd. Rather than the gender gap, this election really might be all about the age gap.


        PA-02

        • reedc October 16, 2016 at 11:34 am

          Which is why it should be clear that Trumpism is not the future.

          • hfcon October 16, 2016 at 11:40 am

            Perhaps when we turn 65 we’ll all start wanting to MAGA. Very curious to see how this election affects the generation of young voters whose long-term party ID will be determined in part by this election (since most partisan IDs “lock in” in your 20s).


            PA-02

            • Ryan_in_SEPA October 16, 2016 at 11:45 am

              Probably means the party is replaced by something else within the next decade.


              31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

          • TexasR October 16, 2016 at 11:51 am

            Yep. Those advocating we go the Trumpista route remind me of the AARP guy in that Grey Dawn South Park episode who said to kill everyone under the age of 65.


            Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
            Be careful what you wish for

    • District101 October 16, 2016 at 1:16 pm

      YouGov is trash too, just like Reuters. We should not use this.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

  • Tekzilla October 16, 2016 at 9:02 am

    Kyle GriffinVerified account
    ‏@kylegriffin1
    BREAKING: Clinton up double-digits in new NBC/WSJ poll:

    2-WAY
    HRC 51
    Trump 41

    4-WAY
    HRC 48
    Trump 37
    Johnson 7
    Stein 2

    Oct 10-13 +/-3.3%


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • aggou October 16, 2016 at 9:05 am

      D’s lead downballot by 2.

      Drop from their previous poll which had Generic at 6

      This is important, too. “By a 53 percent-to-40 percent margin, the poll also finds registered voters saying they’d be more likely to support a Republican candidate who will be a check and balance to Hillary Clinton and congressional Democrats, versus a Democratic candidate who will help Clinton and Democrats pass their agenda.”

      So all in all, I’ll take this result.

      • w920us October 16, 2016 at 9:24 am

        It’s incredible how electorally ‘aware’ many voters have become this year, and remembering what a disaster the first 2 years of the Obama administration was for the middle class, are apparently taking steps to see that NOT repeated under a Clinton administration.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

        • Ryan_in_SEPA October 16, 2016 at 11:46 am

          It really shows how Americans really like divided government.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

          • twinpines October 16, 2016 at 11:49 am

            I like divided government to. But if I could choose, I would choose a rep President and rep Senate with a dem House. I think that would be perfect with mostly rep control at the state level.


            AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

  • Setsuna October 16, 2016 at 9:17 am

    Bullock up 2 in that Mason-Dixon poll that had Trump up 10: http://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/the-governor-s-race-is-incredibly-close-bullock-leads-gianforte/article_84f27ffc-68e0-506d-bad7-11c74c9eb10c.html

    The Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy (?) has Clinton up 15 in Virginia with an absurd number of undecideds (44-29! What are leaners?): http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/oct%2016%202016%20report-final.pdf

    • aggou October 16, 2016 at 9:19 am

      Well that would certainly be a shocker for MT gov.

    • MosheM October 16, 2016 at 9:20 am

      Interesting on Montana


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • Manhatlibertarian October 16, 2016 at 11:54 am

        Surprising that the Mont Gov race is so close. I would have thought Bullock would be way ahead. Let’s see another poll confirm this however, before leaping to conclusions. If Trump is ahead by 10 maybe he will pull the GOP candidate in, although Mont voters have split tickets in the past. If the Repub candidate wins and the GOP keeps control of the legislature, as seems likely, there is a good chance Mont will pass a Right-To-Work law.

    • District101 October 16, 2016 at 1:15 pm

      Finally, a Montana poll! Even though it’s from the really bad MD, I’ll take it.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

      • Setsuna October 16, 2016 at 1:21 pm

        Mason-Dixon is an excellent pollster.

        • MosheM October 16, 2016 at 1:26 pm

          They screwed up badly in 2012 in multiple states.


          28, M, R, NY-10

        • District101 October 16, 2016 at 7:43 pm

          Mason-Dixon is a terrible pollster.


          Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

  • aggou October 16, 2016 at 9:30 am

    Reuters TX poll

    Trump 57% (+25)
    Clinton 32%

    • MosheM October 16, 2016 at 9:34 am

      Not their mashup?


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • aggou October 16, 2016 at 9:35 am

        Saw it on twitter, so I just posted it. They didn’t provide a link in the tweet and I’m getting ready for Church so I didn’t have time to search for it.

    • District101 October 16, 2016 at 1:14 pm

      Reuters? Seriously? Is this one of their “demographic estimates”? Reuters is trash, and should be treated as such.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

  • MosheM October 16, 2016 at 9:44 am

    Monmouth:

    INDIANA poll factoid: In August, 64% of voters w/GOP primary voting history called themselves “Republican” when asked. Now, only 50% do.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • hfcon October 16, 2016 at 11:32 am

      Yep, and this is why it’s important to ask about the primary voting history rather than self-ID since Party ID for any given individual is pretty fluid, especially in an election like this. The “unskew” types complaining about the higher D samples aren’t taking this into account.


      PA-02

  • w920us October 16, 2016 at 11:22 am

    In the Democrats’ never-ending misguided quest to take guns from hunters, the Maine referendum appears likely to swing the Maine 2nd district electoral vote to Trump and re-elect Poliquin.
    http://bangordailynews.com/2016/10/16/the-point/in-fight-over-2nd-district-opposition-to-question-3-could-make-the-district-red/

    Just like in 2014, we are likely to see dramatic increases in voter turnout in this district once again benefiting the GOP.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • Left Coast Libertarian October 16, 2016 at 12:10 pm

    Trump is dropping in the polls, but Republicans in the senate, for the most part, aren’t dropping themselves. My fear that Trump’s core supporters won’t support Republicans down ballot hasn’t played out so far. Why?

    1. Because Trump hasn’t declared all out war with the Republican party? He’s denounced the Republican establishment as bringing him down, but he hasn’t told his supporters not to Republican down ballot.

    2. Because some hard core Trumpets don’t vote Republican down ballot and those that do are loyal to the party? The number of Republicans who will punish Republicans down ballot is small, even though they’re loud.

    3. Because it hasn’t shown up yet because people in polls don’t think about Republicans betraying Trump when they’re polled? Once they see the ballot they’ll punish the Republicans.

    Or is it something else?

    • Setsuna October 16, 2016 at 12:41 pm

      Well, in some ways I think it’s too early to know if Trump’s latest crusade will have a significant effect on Republicans down ballot. There haven’t been that many polls since he began it, and it’s not as if those there have been have universally pointed one way or the other. Clearly some candidates, like Portman and Rubio, don’t seem to be affected. They seem to have developed strong personal brands and that brand seems to trump (pun not intended) Trump’s edicts amongst voters in their states.

      However, Portman and Rubio are clearly exceptional candidates who have run exceptional campaigns, as evidenced by how they’ve been consistently out-polling the top of the ticket by a large margin for some time now. Just because they’re not affected doesn’t mean weaker candidates who lack strong personal brands in other states won’t shed votes because of what Trump said.

      In Nevada, for example, Heck led in every poll since May, sometimes by large margins, but over the last week there have been polls with Cortez-Masto up 5 points, 1 point, and with the race tied. Now, it’s perfectly plausible that movement has nothing to do with Trump. If we see more polls of other races and Nevada is the only state that has moved against Republicans by a significant amount then the movement almost certainly has nothing to do with Trump.

      Like I said, however, I don’t think there have been enough new polls from all the other competitive Senate races for us to say yet whether Trump’s comments swayed a significant number of voters.

    • Manhatlibertarian October 16, 2016 at 12:58 pm

      Your fear may be playing out in Nevada. A PPP poll that found Cortez Masto up by 4 found that 34% of voters were less likely to support Heck after his disavowal of Trump while only 19% were more likely to support him. Further his support among GOP voters over Cortez Masto declined from 76-13 before the disavowal to 70-15 after the disavowal. I think the best thing Heck can do now is stay quiet on Trump and attack Clinton a lot and try to tie Cortez Masto to her; that may bring back some of the die hard Trumpistas to voting for him.

      http://dailykos.com/story/2016/10/13/1582038/Joe-Heck-losing-Nevada-Republicans-for-dumping-Trump

      • Tim29 October 16, 2016 at 1:03 pm

        Isn’t that the PPP poll paid for by the Cortez-Masto campaign though? My read on that is it’s more about trying to create a narrative than accurately gauging one that’s happening on the ground.

        • MosheM October 16, 2016 at 1:05 pm

          It’s likely a temp decrease in Heck’s support from Republicans due to his repudiation of Trump. They might come back.


          28, M, R, NY-10

      • Setsuna October 16, 2016 at 1:08 pm

        The problem with that, of course, is that Clinton’s going to win Nevada — probably by a significant margin. Talking about either Clinton or Trump is essentially a lose/lose situation for Heck electorally, at least as far as I can see. Praising or criticizing either one of them is going to alienate part of the coalition he needs to win.

        • Manhatlibertarian October 16, 2016 at 2:25 pm

          Yeah Clinton will likely win Nevada although I don’t think it will be by a big margin (barring even more “Trump follies”). Assuming the poll is correct, and Heck may have lost some Trumpista support over his disavowal of Trump, I don’t know how he gets them back unless he goes after Clinton a lot. Heck really does not need to get a lot of Clinton voters, a number of whom may be voting for Clinton not because they like her that much but because they fear Trump more; so attacking Clinton doesn’t alienate that type of voter that much. Also Heck will probably pick up most of the Johnson voters; attacking Clinton doesn’t hurt him with them.

  • rdw72777 October 16, 2016 at 12:27 pm

    Trump isn’t going away November 9

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/16/politics/rudy-giuliani-rigged-elections-donald-trump/index.html

    • TexasR October 16, 2016 at 12:28 pm

      Wonder how much of a stake Rudy will have in the Bannon/Ailes led Trump TV.


      Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
      Be careful what you wish for

    • HS October 16, 2016 at 3:31 pm

      Unless he wins, I doubt that Trump has a significant effect on the GOP. He is not organized enough to do much, and most of his voters in the primaries voted for his attitude, and not his issues. Plus, at 70 years old, with a terrible temper and presumably high blood pressure, I am not sure he makes it for the next four years. (I also think Hillary might not make a full term.)

      • rdw72777 October 16, 2016 at 3:37 pm

        It’s equally likely he has zero impact or has monumental impact. I don’t like those odds.

        • HS October 16, 2016 at 4:01 pm

          If he gets elected he will have a monumental impact. But i dont see that happening if he loses. Trumps only impact then is that he cost the GOP the Presidency this year which is monumental in another way, but not the way you meant – i.e., I don’t see him having any impact on future politics, for the reasons I mentioned above.

          Consider Ross Perot. Perot was in every way a superior candidate to Trump. And he certainly made an impact in the 92 race, which resulted in the end of the Reagan Presidential coalition. But even though Perot ran again in 96, he had no further impact on American politics. His impact, like Trumps, is all in one election.

          I don’t think any of the Trump kids have any real desire to run for office. And unlike their dad, they don’t have the attitude that made their dad a successful candidate. We also know that they are pretty much traditional liberal rich people, who are probably going to like Hillary as a President.

          • rdw72777 October 16, 2016 at 4:09 pm

            Perot didn’t feel like he had the race stolen from him. Perot didn’t win a major party nomination. Perot didn’t get 40% of the vote.

            I mean the comparisons are almost non-existent. Trump could walk away like Perot did after 1996, but if he doesn’t he will have continued impact because his people absolutely can dominate the 2018 primaries whereas Perot’s people were impotent between POTUS elections.

            • HS October 16, 2016 at 6:58 pm

              Trump won the primaries with around 40% of the vote under very unusual circumstances. The huge number of candidates, the stupidity of the elites in backing Bush so long, the decision of Bush to go after Rubio, the unwillingness of the elites to back Cruz instead of Trump, etc. I highly doubt Trump could be this lucky again, even if he makes it another four years in good health.

              And not every person who voted for him in the primaries is a loyal Trumpkin. A lot of people knew nothing about him except he was a celebrity. They aren’t all going to follow his every command if he loses, and vote as a block.

              As for the “stolen part”, I can’t say that disturbs me anymore. As I have said before, for at least the past eight years we have had an out of control media doing their best to elect Democrats, government bureaucracies also helping the Democrats, and voter fraud that is not insignificant. The system is corrupt, and elections have been “stolen”, although I would say that the problems are directed at Republicans in general, and not Trump in particular.

              Obama beat Romney 51 to 47. If the media hadn’t covered for him on Benghazi and other things, if the IRS and DOJ hadn’t shut down a lot of conservative groups over the four years, and if the dead or illegals hadn’t all voted for Obama, Romney may well have won.

              Thus, our electoral system is corrupt. And if the system is corrupt, the small chance we have to set things right is by exposing it. So, if Trump wants to run around and get his 20% or so dedicated Trumpkins all worked up about a real problem, I think this is a great idea.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 16, 2016 at 4:24 pm

            President Clinton being good for you doesn’t mean you’ll actually like her. Corporate America’s media cronies have spent months firebombing every member of Trump’s family from every conceivable angle. It’d be shocking if Trump’s children haven’t grown to despise the media and establishment even if they started the race off as traditional liberal rich people. I’m pretty sure Palin started off as a pretty moderate Republican until the media tried to go after her family.

            On that angle, a Clinton presidency would probably be very good for me (probably a “traditional liberal rich person”), but that doesn’t mean I can approve of an economic status quo that I’d prefer to end without violence (against me). And I’ve never even been attacked by the media!

            I’d be interesting if Republican expectations of a 2018 landslide has an impact on intra-party warfare. I expect a lot of people to engage in a lot of scorched earth warfare expecting a 2018 resurgence to the point where 2018 becomes a Republican disappointment.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • HS October 16, 2016 at 7:07 pm

              If Trump loses, I don’t see how 2018 can be bad for Republicans, considering the Senate seats that are up. Also, the Democrats have not yet managed to control the flow of House and Senate elections as they have the Presidential. Not yet, at least.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 16, 2016 at 3:43 pm

        He has fairly telegenic children – and I suspect there’s been a converging of political views within the family once siege mentality against a corporate media that sought to destroy them all kicked in.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Manhatlibertarian October 16, 2016 at 12:28 pm

    Trump now has a GOP record setting 2.6 million individual donors, but still lags behind Clinton in COH at the start of Oct by a 2 to 1 margin. Trump has also been contributing about $2 million of his own funds per month to the campaign and Silicon Valley entrepreneur Peter Thiel has just announced he will now contribute $1.25 million to the Trump campaign and allied super PACS. But there was a Clinton benefit with Elton John Thursday which charged $33,400 per person and $100,000 if you wanted to be listed as an event co-chair. As I’ve pointed out before, nobody beats the Clintons when it comes to getting their hands on a lot of cash!

    http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/trump-sets-gop-record-individual-donors/

    • reedc October 16, 2016 at 12:37 pm

      Trump is raising tons of cash from small donors the same way Carson did. Per campaign filings He’s spending a lot to raise that amount and it’s not terribly efficient.

      • Setsuna October 16, 2016 at 12:48 pm

        Wait, Trump is using direct mail? That’s the inefficient, scam-y method Carson was using to inflate the amount of cash he was raising.

        If that’s correct then now I can’t wait to look at Trump’s expenditures for September.

        • reedc October 16, 2016 at 4:30 pm

          Don’t know if it’s direct mail but his “overhead expenses” for raising money are about as high as direct mail. I can tell you I’ve been getting about 5 letters a week (assume someone I donated to sold him a list).

        • hfcon October 16, 2016 at 5:52 pm

          Sure he is, and it’s costly him a pretty penny compared to Clinton’s org for fundraising: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-16/trump-spends-heavily-on-direct-mail-to-win-mom-and-pop-donors


          PA-02

          • Izengabe October 16, 2016 at 11:09 pm

            Wow! 37 cents of each dollar Trump raises is spent on expenses such as postage and printing!


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • TexasR October 16, 2016 at 11:16 pm

              How much is spent on important things like hats? 😉


              Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
              Be careful what you wish for

            • roguemapper October 16, 2016 at 11:16 pm

              Weren’t they reporting just a couple weeks ago that the Donald would be airing some $200 million in TV ads? The figure seemed to go up every day for a while there. What happened with all that?


              Dem NC-11

  • rdw72777 October 16, 2016 at 4:00 pm

    Fundraising, ground game, state party info and such. Probably nothing too new but an okay read.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/16/trump-campaign-struggles-with-funding-woes-as-state-operatives-complain.html

  • GOPTarHeel October 16, 2016 at 4:13 pm

    The Orange County NC GOP headquarters were fire bombed by lefties.

    http://time.com/4532722/republican-headquarters-firebombed/

    I can only imagine the crisis for democracy this would be if it was a Democratic headquarters.


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • roguemapper October 16, 2016 at 4:23 pm

      I’m a bit surprised someone from Chapel Hill went all the way up to Hillsborough for that, or even knew the office was there. They probably noticed it when they had to go to court for their latest sit-in protest trespassing charge. If they had true initiative they would’ve gone over to Burlington where the GOP HQ actually does something. lol


      Dem NC-11

      • GOPTarHeel October 16, 2016 at 4:33 pm

        Lol the anarchists are almost all in communal homes in Carrboro now. The upscale Chapel Hill voters have zoned out as much of the riff raff as they can.

        And the attention this firebombing gives the Orange County GOP will be the most useful thing it has ever done probably!


        R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA October 16, 2016 at 4:38 pm

          Zoning out the Great Unwashed of the left is a pastime of the high end left.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

          • Son_of_the_South October 16, 2016 at 4:43 pm

            Oh yeah. I’m half-sure that the only reason that I haven’t been zoned-out of my apartment in rich, very liberal NW DC is that three of the four apartments in the building are occupied exclusively by Republicans 🙂 The hipsters and anarchists all live over in Columbia Heights, Petworth, Bloomingdale, and SW DC.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • w920us October 16, 2016 at 4:57 pm

            What’s even more sad, is that the great mass of leftist untouchables are fooled into thinking that its Republicans who are “zoning” them out or keeping them down in society. You do have give the liberal & media elites props for an excellent propaganda regime.


            R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
            #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

            • Son_of_the_South October 16, 2016 at 5:01 pm

              Well, that’s just an ancillary effect of the assumption that almost all rich and upper-middle class people are Republicans.


              23, R, TN-08
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • Republican Michigander October 16, 2016 at 5:03 pm

                Which is one of the biggest hurdles we have to get past.


                MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

                • Son_of_the_South October 16, 2016 at 5:27 pm

                  Well, it is true that the majority of the upper-middle class usually vote Republican. The truly rich are 50-50 or worse for us. The meme isn’t that hard to fight out in the country, where everyone knows a lot of poor and middle-class Republicans. It’s pretty insurmountable in the city, though.


                  23, R, TN-08
                  Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • roguemapper October 16, 2016 at 5:07 pm

              Yes, because Arlington TX, Gilbert AZ, Carmel IN, and Yorba Linda CA embrace them with open arms. It may just be that aversion to leftist riff-raff is bipartisan (much like aversion to the alt-right).


              Dem NC-11

              • Son_of_the_South October 16, 2016 at 5:29 pm

                Well, sure, but the leftist riffraff don’t tend to live in places like that. They live in places like Chapel Hill, then get displaced by liberal professors, barkeeps, and lawyers.


                23, R, TN-08
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                • roguemapper October 16, 2016 at 5:33 pm

                  Barkeeps? I assume you mean bar owners. lol Well, fwiw, I used to know most of the bar owners in Chapel Hill and they were basically a step above leftist riffraff themselves!


                  Dem NC-11

                  • Son_of_the_South October 16, 2016 at 5:40 pm

                    I like the term barkeep. It’s more euphonious than bar owner IMO. As to their politics, you’re right; some barkeeps are one step above leftist riff raff and the rest are one step above rightist riff raff. I should have said bankers instead of barkeeps.


                    23, R, TN-08
                    Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                • GOPTarHeel October 16, 2016 at 5:35 pm

                  It’s not just riffraff being replaced. Orange County, NC is one of only two in North Carolina with a declining African American population. The other is similarly progressive Buncombe County.

                  Orange County has the highest property taxes in the state, the highest water charges in the state, the highest cost of living in the state, purposefully excludes low cost eating and shopping options and has anti-car policies that prevent low income workers from living there.


                  R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

                  • w920us October 16, 2016 at 5:42 pm

                    All of which is being duplicated in every American city where significant gentrification is occurring. Just look at D.C. as an example with upscale liberals squeezing out the black population, which has started to see declines with regards to the makeup of the population.


                    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
                    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

                  • Son_of_the_South October 16, 2016 at 5:44 pm

                    Yeah, Bloomington looks like it might be going that way. Luckily the outer parts of the county have enough Republicans and poor Democrats that those kinds of policies usually get pushback here. For example, a coalition of Republicans, poor Democrats, and students managed to defeat the Food and Beverage Tax (or infamously the Pizza and Beer Tax) when it was on the ballot a few years ago. I have no doubt the local lefties will try again, though.


                    23, R, TN-08
                    Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                  • roguemapper October 16, 2016 at 5:51 pm

                    Well, both facts are false.

                    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37135
                    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37021

                    With regard to Buncombe County, it may be true that the AA population has decreased within the city of Asheville (the Census doesn’t have a city estimate), though I wouldn’t bet on that. If it is, however, this is a *good* thing. For about a decade now Buncombe public housing policy has been focused on gradually eliminating the ring of sequestered projects (Lee Walker, Hillcrest, Klondyke, Pisgah View, Altamont, Deaverview) and to instead shift people on housing assistance to dispersed apartments & homes using tenant vouchers. This is of course the very opposite of what you’re implying, aside from the fact that your stats are wrong in any case.


                    Dem NC-11

                    • GOPTarHeel October 16, 2016 at 6:02 pm

                      The data might be limited to the cities of Chapel Hill and Asheville and not the counties. If it’s wrong it’s because I listened to a recent presentation from a UNC business school professor on the issue and trusted his facts.

                      Either way the implication is not that Orange County is racist. I didn’t say that. The implication is that it is unnecessarily expensive due to progressive policy ideas implemented by the local government. Chapel Hill restricts the supply of housing with its ‘rural buffer’ and has unnaturally high house prices as a result. When poor people can’t afford to live there and African Americans are disproportionately poor, you’re going to hurt them disproportionately.


                      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

                    • roguemapper October 16, 2016 at 6:12 pm

                      The controversy in Asheville has mostly involved the South Pack area which was the historically segregated AA business district that has been gentrified during the past decade. Ah how I miss the good old days of driving through the open-air midday crack market on Spruce Street on the way to the courthouse! Anyway, the two city planning master plans issued in 1993 and 2007 (iirc) basically priced most of the AA residents out of that area. Much like the public housing projects that have been shifted away from being semi-permanent residences, the population has dispersed. Actually, much of it has just shifted toward other historically AA parts of Asheville like Shiloh. In any case, the longstanding dispute was over whether said master plans should attempt to preserve the AA character of the South Pack area. How do you do that? You can’t force people not to sell once the property values go up and someone offers them hundreds of thousands to turn their slum house into a brewery. So, what then is the solution? Enforce permanent segregation and poverty? What should have been done differently? Do you think the city, which, I might add, had an AA mayor when the last master plan was passed, would be hostile to a viable alternative?


                      Dem NC-11

                    • GOPTarHeel October 16, 2016 at 6:33 pm

                      I looked at the 2000 and 2010 census data and that must have been what the professor was referring to. There was a marginal decline in the African American population of Orange County in those years. It might have rebounded somewhat in the new sets of data. So he didn’t completely lie to me, which is nice.

                      As for Asheville, I’d have to read more about its policies towards low-income home building and restrictive zoning. All of my familiarity is limited to disputes over restricting VRBO and AirBnB there. I’m much more qualified to bitch about Chapel Hill.


                      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • Son_of_the_South October 16, 2016 at 4:40 pm

      Yeah. The college town lefties tend to go beyond words fairly often. A few years ago someone here in Bloomington prominently displayed a George W. Bush doll with a noose around its neck.


      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • hfcon October 16, 2016 at 5:56 pm

      Clinton campaign immediately condemned it on Twitter, but I get the feeling Trump is going to bring this back up all through Wednesday. It reverses the “Trump supporters are being violent” narrative that had been growing in the media and will bring back all kinds of fun overtures to the BLM riots. Will be interesting to see if there’s more info about who did this emerge over the next few days.


      PA-02

      • Manhatlibertarian October 16, 2016 at 6:46 pm

        What is interesting is that the firebomber wrote “Nazi Republicans leave town or else” in graffiti on an adjacent building. No specific mention of Trump which implies the firebomber has a problem with the GOP in general and not just Trump. Interesting to find out who is behind this and if this person (or persons) plans any more actions. But you should know that as far as the MSM is concerned if someone shoves a heckler at a Trump rally it is far more newsworthy than a firebombing of a GOP HQ.

    • GOPTarHeel October 16, 2016 at 6:42 pm

      Trump is handling this bombing
      with characteristic delicacy. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/787782613633208320


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • hbdrealist October 16, 2016 at 7:11 pm

      how did OC (NC) become so hardcore left wing? Yeah there’s a college – but places like Montgomery County, VA have a college and are not super liberal. Maybe a lot of the population is relative newcomers to NC.

      • Son_of_the_South October 16, 2016 at 7:16 pm

        Yes. A lot of liberal Yankees moved there when moving to the Triangle because it was a cute college town (not Durham, which has or had crime-ridden areas) that had nice amenities. That moved it from regular lefty to loony lefty.The more conservative and moderate Yankees in the Triangle moved to places like Cary and Apex. My second cousins were among this group in the 90s and participate in Moral Monday protests. Actually, come to think of it, they live with the absolute fringe in Carrboro.


        23, R, TN-08
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • segmentation_fault October 16, 2016 at 7:57 pm

          Durham County has attracted a lot of white liberals in the last decade or so, though. It’s gentrifying a lot now. Starting to give Carrboro/Asheville a run for their money.


          core dumped

      • segmentation_fault October 16, 2016 at 7:56 pm

        Orange County has been very liberal for a very long time. Going all the way back to 1972, it was one of only two counties in NC that McGovern won (the other was rural Northampton; not Durham, which was not liberal at all back then).


        core dumped

    • District101 October 16, 2016 at 7:36 pm

      It’s still a crisis nonetheless. These activist progressives are the worst kind.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

  • MosheM October 16, 2016 at 4:25 pm

    Little NeverTrumper born this afternoon and in good spirits. Plans to sit out this presidential election.

    Mama NeverTrump and Papa NeverTrump are doing well.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • roguemapper October 16, 2016 at 4:25 pm

      Congrats!


      Dem NC-11

    • Setsuna October 16, 2016 at 4:31 pm

      Congrats!

    • ike56 October 16, 2016 at 4:34 pm

      I would like to say “Mazel Tov” if it doesn’t seem to glib to appropriate a cultural term (I am married into. Jewish family, though!).


      38, USN CPO (CA-52, stuck with Scott Peters until a good candidate comes along).

    • Son_of_the_South October 16, 2016 at 4:38 pm

      Mazel tov!


      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • andyroo312 October 16, 2016 at 4:40 pm

      Yay!! 🙂


      MA-7

    • shamlet October 16, 2016 at 4:45 pm

      Congrats! This is number two for you?


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • MosheM October 16, 2016 at 4:54 pm

        Thanks all!

        This is number four!


        28, M, R, NY-10

    • GerGOP October 16, 2016 at 5:04 pm

      Congrats! The child seems to be of a right mind if he plans to sit out this f***ing election.

    • Tim29 October 16, 2016 at 5:10 pm

      Congratulations!

    • GOPTarHeel October 16, 2016 at 6:44 pm

      Congrats!


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • HS October 16, 2016 at 7:13 pm

      Congratulations and Mazel tov!

    • District101 October 16, 2016 at 7:34 pm

      Congratulations to you.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

    • Tekzilla October 16, 2016 at 7:36 pm

      Congrats my friend. Mazel Tov!


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Republican Michigander October 16, 2016 at 9:16 pm

      Congratulations


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • aas34 October 17, 2016 at 1:23 am

      Congrats!


      32, R, CA-2

    • californianintexas October 17, 2016 at 9:14 am

      Congratulations!


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • MosheM October 18, 2016 at 8:33 pm

      Thanks all!


      28, M, R, NY-10

  • w920us October 16, 2016 at 5:37 pm

    In news that should shock no one, and will likely be counter-productive anyway given the Kane endorsement in 2012, the Philly Inky has endorsed Shady Katie McGinty. I’m surmising due to the fact that she’s a D and that she’s a she.
    http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/20161016_Inquirer_Editorial__Katie_McGinty_for_the_U_S__Senate.html


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • Conservative First October 16, 2016 at 6:11 pm

    I have posted my Michigan state house ratings. Republicans are holding on for now, but it wouldn’t take much of a wave to lose the state house.
    http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2016/10/16/2016-michigan-state-house-races-2/

  • GradyDem October 16, 2016 at 7:09 pm

    Alaska Democratic Party internal poll has Trump +1 down from Trump +8

    http://midnightsunak.com/2016/10/16/midnight-sun-exclusive-new-poll-shows-trump-clinton-tied-alaska/

    • Tekzilla October 16, 2016 at 7:35 pm

      Not shocked, I’ve thought for a while this could happen with he right set up. Remember Alaska was looking potentially competitive in 2008 before Palin was picked.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • Manhatlibertarian October 16, 2016 at 7:15 pm

    One group that will benefit from the upcoming election is Hispanics. By my count Hispanics have a good chance of picking up at least five House seats in Nov that are currently not occupied by Hispanics. The seats are in Cal, Nev, Tx, Fla and NY. Also a Hispanic candidate has a 50/50 chance of picking up Reid’s senate seat in Nevada, which would make for 4 Hispanic senators.

    • w920us October 16, 2016 at 7:30 pm

      Everyone knows you don’t count Cruz & Rubio in that tabulation as they have an R at the end of their name! 😀


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • Manhatlibertarian October 16, 2016 at 7:53 pm

        Interestingly enough only Menendez and Rubio are fully of Hispanic descent. Cruz is half Cuban, 1/4 Irish and 1/4 Italian. Cortez Masto is half Mexican and half Italian.

  • CO Conservative October 16, 2016 at 7:59 pm

    FL-18: Mast internal has him up 47-40 over Perkins. http://postonpolitics.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2016/10/16/republican-brian-mast-internal-poll-shows-him-leading-randy-perkins-in-congress-race/

    Clinton leads 46-44 within the district.

    • GOPTarHeel October 16, 2016 at 9:30 pm

      Fratrick losing his home district. Sad!


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • krazen1211 October 16, 2016 at 10:13 pm

      Reminds of me when the anointed one Bruce Braley lost his Congressional district in that Senate race, while the newly vacated district was lost to the GOP. Kirkpatrick might do that too.

  • GOPTarHeel October 16, 2016 at 11:41 pm

    SUSA has Paulsen +11 in MN03 https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854665761161216


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • GOPTarHeel October 16, 2016 at 11:48 pm

      Clinton +13 in the same poll. Ticket splitting! http://kstp.com/politics/kstpsurveyusa-paulsen-holds-big-lead-in-3rd-district/4292879/?cat=1


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • Left Coast Libertarian October 16, 2016 at 11:59 pm

        I wouldn’t really call it ticket splitting. Paulsen won by 16 in 2012. If he’s doing all the things he needs to do there’s no reason he shouldn’t turn out those same voters to vote for him. Some of them just won’t vote for Trump. Those people don’t view Trump as a Republican. What’s interesting is that the few polls we’ve seen in Minnesota have Trump doing similar to Romney statewide. If Clinton wins this district by 13 there’s no way Trump is close to Romney.

        • Son_of_the_South October 17, 2016 at 12:17 am

          There’s always the possibility that’s he’s holding up better in the less well-heeled suburbs and just killing it outstate. Goldy has alluded to this situation, if memory serves.


          23, R, TN-08
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • Left Coast Libertarian October 17, 2016 at 12:40 am

            I’m a stickler for the polls adding up. If MN-3 goes from Obama +1 to Clinton +13, other urban/suburban districts around it will see similar jumps. Trump wouldn’t gain enough in MN-7 and MN-8 to offset that.

            Four years ago the race was even to Obama +1, but the swing state polls were all saying it’d be Obama +5. People argued that Romney must be doing better in states not polled often. That didn’t turn out to be the cas.

          • OGGoldy October 17, 2016 at 7:42 am

            Dem polling shows Clinton improving on Obama 08 margins by about 6-7 (not 12) though that could partially be accounted for asymmetric changes across the metro. Minneapolis and St. Paul right around Obama 08, with a slight movement towards Trump, while outstate is about 3-4 better than McCain got. If the race were today, Clinton would win by about ~13-14 statewide

  • Son_of_the_South October 17, 2016 at 12:14 am

    The Midlands diary should be up sometime tomorrow.


    23, R, TN-08
    Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Tekzilla October 17, 2016 at 12:17 am

    Clinton +8 in the GW Battleground poll…

    https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/new-gw-battleground-poll-clinton-begins-pull-away-trump-and-voters-think-she’ll-win


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Left Coast Libertarian October 17, 2016 at 12:37 am

      It doesn’t show how the race is now since the poll was conducted October 8-11, concluding the night of the debate. ABC and NBC’s polls stretch into Tuesday. Those polls indicate the debate helped Trump. We’ll have to see what happens with polls taken more recently.

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