RRH Elections 2016 Final Race Rankings and Ratings

Today we are releasing our final set of Race Ratings, with all four major categories, Senate, Governor, House, and Row Officers, being updated. In this installment, we zero out the Tossups and take a firm stand on every contested race. There’s always plenty of error in prognosticating, but if we have done things right, our goal is for the “Lean” calls to be around 80-90% accurate, and the “Likely” calls to be 90-99% accurate. These are just the rankings and ratings, for narrative recaps of how we see the races, please see our massive set of previews:

Part 1: Northeast Legislatures
Part 2: Midwest Legislatures
Part 3: Sunbelt Legislatures
Part 4: Western Legislatures
Part 5: Local Elections and Public Service Commissioners
Part 6: Western House Races
Part 7: Eastern House Races
Part 8: Western Governor and Row Officer Races
Part 9: Eastern Governor and Row Officer Races
Part 10: Senate Races

Also don’t forget to look at Grady’s Kentucky, OGGoldy’s Minnesota, LCL’s Calfornia and ConservativeFirst’s Michigan Legislative Previews.

Senate Rankings:
Prior Installments: October 2016 || September 2016 || July 2016 || May 2016 || December 2015 || July 2015 || April 2015

Safe D Likely D Lean D Lean R Likely R Safe R
34. CA (OPEN) Likely Harris
20. CT (Blumenthal)
29. HI (Schatz)
19. MD (OPEN)
32. NY (Schumer)
23. OR (Wyden)
26. VT (Leahy)
22. WA (Murray)
13. CO (Bennet)
1. IL (Kirk)
7. NV (OPEN)
4. NH (Ayotte)
3. PA (Toomey)
2. WI (Johnson)
9. FL (Rubio)
5. IN (OPEN)
6. MO (Blunt)
8. NC (Burr)
10. AZ (McCain)
12. LA (OPEN)
11. OH (Portman)
33. AL (Shelby)
18. AK (Murkowski)
17. AR (Boozman)
16. GA (Isakson)
27. ID (Crapo)
14. IA (Grassley)
25. KS (Moran)
15. KY (Paul)
21. ND (Hoeven)
30. OK (Lankford)
28. SC (Scott)
31. SD (Thune)
24. UT (Lee)

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip partisan control.

Since our last ratings update, RRH Elections has made the following 9 changes to our Senate Ratings, 5 in favor of Republicans:
Georgia Safe R from Likely R || Indiana Lean R from Tossup || Iowa Safe R from Likely R || Missouri Lean R from Tossup || North Carolina Lean R from Tossup

and 4 in favor of Democrats:
Illinois Likely D from Lean D || Nevada Lean D from Tossup || New Hampshire Lean D from Tossup || Pennsylvania Lean D from Tossup

RRH Elections predicts a net shift in the Senate of D+4, for a 50-50 Senate.

Gubernatorial Rankings
Prior Installments: October 2016 || September 2016 || August 2016 || May 2016 || October 2015 || August 2015 || April 2015

Safe D Likely D Lean D Lean R Likely R Safe R
10. DE (OPEN)
9. WA (Inslee)
 8. OR (K. Brown) 2. IN (OPEN)
5. MO (OPEN)
6. MT (Bullock)
4. NH (OPEN)
3. NC (McCrory)
7. WV (OPEN)
1. VT (OPEN)
11. ND (OPEN)
12. UT (Herbert)

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip partisan control.

Since our last ratings update, RRH Elections has made the following changes to our Gubernatorial Ratings, one in favor of Republicans:
Vermont Lean R from Tossup

and two in favor of Democrats:
New Hampshire Lean D from Tossup || North Carolina Lean D from Tossup

RRH Elections projects a net shift of D+1 gubernatorial seats on Tuesday.

House Ratings
Prior Installments: October 2016 || September 2016 || June 2016 || January 2016 || July 2015

Likely D Lean D Lean R Likely R
CA-16 (Costa)
CA-31 (Aguilar)
CA-36 (Ruiz)
CA-52 (Peters)
IL-8 (OPEN)
MD-6 (Delaney)
NH-1 (Guinta)
NY-3 (OPEN)
NY-25 (Slaughter)
AZ-1 (OPEN)
CA-7 (Bera)
CA-24 (OPEN)
FL-7 (Mica)
FL-13 (Jolly)
IL-10 (Dold)
MN-2 (OPEN)
MN-8 (Nolan)
NE-2 (Ashford)
NV-3 (OPEN)
NV-4 (Hardy)
NJ-5 (Garrett)
NY-19 (OPEN)
TX-23 (Hurd)
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-25 (Knight)
CA-49 (Issa)
CO-6 (Coffman)
FL-18 (OPEN)
FL-26 (Curbelo)
IA-1 (Blum)
IA-3 (Young)
IN-9 (OPEN)
ME-2 (Poliquin)
MI-1 (OPEN)
NY-22 (OPEN)
NY-24 (Katko)
PA-8 (OPEN)
PA-16 (OPEN)
VA-10 (Comstock)
AK-AL (Young)
AZ-2 (McSally)
CO-3 (Tipton)
KS-3 (Yoder)
IL-12 (Bost)
IN-2 (Walorski)
MI-6 (Upton)
MI-7 (Walberg)
MI-8 (Bishop)
MN-3 (Paulsen)
MT-AL (Zinke)
NY-1 (Zeldin)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NC-9 (Pittenger)
PA-6 (Costello)
UT-4 (Love)
VA-5 (OPEN)
WV-2 (Mooney)
WI-8 (OPEN)

Safe R Pickup: FL-2 (OPEN) || Safe D Pickup: FL-10 (OPEN) & VA-4 (OPEN)

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip; Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat.

house-map

Our Same Party House Ratings for the seats with D-on-D or R-on-R generals are as follows:
CA-17 (D) (Honda) Lean Khanna
CA-29 (D)
(Cardenas) Safe Cardenas
CA-32 (D) (Napolitano) Safe Napolitano
CA-34 (D) (Becerra) Safe Becerra
CA-44 (D) (OPEN) Lean Hall
CA-46 (D) (OPEN) Likely Correa
PA-9 (R) (Shuster) Likely Shuster
WA-4 (R) (Newhouse) Likely Newhouse
WA-7 (D) (OPEN) Lean Jayapal

Since our last ratings update, RRH Elections has made the following 31 changes to our House Ratings, 15 in favor of Republicans:

CO-3 Likely R from Lean R || CO-6 Lean R from Tossup || FL-18 Lean R from Tossup || FL-26 Lean R from Tossup || IA-1 Lean R from Tossup || NY-1 Likely R from Lean R || MI-1 Lean R from Tossup || MI-7 Likely R from Lean R || MO-2 Safe R from Likely R || MT-AL Likely R from Lean R || NY-22 Lean R from Tossup || PA-8 Lean R from Tossup || SC-5 Safe R from Likely R || TN-4 Safe R from Likely R || UT-4 Likely R from Lean R

and 16 in favor of Democrats:

AZ-1 Lean D from Tossup || CA-10 Lean R from Likely R || FL-7 Lean D from Lean R || IL-10 Lean D from Tossup || IL-11 Safe D from Likely D || KS-3 Likely R from Safe R || MN-8 Lean D from Tossup || NE-2 Lean D from Tossup || NV-3 Lean D from Tossup || NH-1 Likely D from Lean D || NJ-5 Lean D from Tossup || NY-3 Likely D from Lean D || NY-4 Safe D from Likely D || NY-19 Lean D from Tossup || PA-16 Lean R from Likely R || TX-23 Lean D from Tossup

These changes mean we are projecting a net shift of D+10 in the House on Tuesday.

Row Officer Ratings:
Prior Installments: October 2016 || July 2016

Safe D Likely D Lean D Lean R Likely R Safe R
DE-Ins Comm
DE-LG
OR-AG
VT-Aud
VT-SoS
VT-AG
VT-Treas
WA-AG
WA-Ins Comm
WA-Supt* Lean Reykdal
NM-SoS
NC-Aud
NC-Ins Comm
NC-SoS
NC-Supt
OR-Treas
WA-Lands Comm
WA-LG
IL-Comp
IN-Supt
MO-LG
MT-SoS
NC-AG
OR-SoS
PA-AG
PA-Aud
PA-Treas
VT-LG
WA-Aud
WV-SoS
WV-Treas
IN-AG
MO-AG
MO-SoS
MT-Ins Comm
MT-Supt
NC-Labor Comm
NC-LG
NC-Treas
WA-SoS
WV-AG
WV-Ag Comm
MO-Treas
MT-AG
NC-Ag Comm
ND-Treas
WV-Aud
ND-Aud
ND-Ins Comm
ND-Supt* Safe Baesler
UT-AG
UT-Aud
UT-Treas
WA-Treas* Lean Davidson

(*) denotes a same-party race.

Since our last ratings update, RRH Elections has made the following 17 changes to our Row Officer Ratings, 7 in favor of Republicans:

MO-AG Lean R from Tossup || MT-Ins Comm Lean R from Tossup || MT-Supt Lean R from Tossup || NC-LG Lean R from Tossup || NC-Treas Lean R from Tossup || WA-SoS Lean R from Tossup || WV-Ag Comm Lean R from Tossup

and 9 in favor of Democrats:

MO-LG Lean D from Tossup || MT-SoS Lean D from Tossup || NM-SoS Likely D from Lean D || NC-AG Lean D from Tossup || PA-AG Lean D from Tossup || WA-Aud Lean D from Tossup || WV-AG Lean R from Likely R || WV-SoS Lean D from Tossup || WV-Treas Lean D from Tossup

We also have made one intraparty ratings shift:

WA-Treas Lean Davidson from Tilt Davidson

We are thus projecting a net shift of 5 Row Officer seats in favor of Republicans.

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60 Comments

  • CO Conservative November 5, 2016 at 12:35 pm

    I wouldn’t change much on here. I do think Ayotte wins in NH, and PA is probably as close to a total toss as can be. Suspect Philly turnout down.

    In the House, would hardly change anything, except 3. I think Faso wins NY-19. Dems haven’t had much success moving Manhattan liberals into upstate districts. That pattern continues. Numbers look tough in Curbelo’s district, so I might switch that. And IN-09 could be one of the night’s flukes. The residency issues plaguing Evan Bayh could backsplash on Trey Hollingsworth.

    The under-reported story on Tuesday night? I think GOP does better in gubernatorials and some other non-federal races than conventional wisdom suggests. Cole wins WV. Greitens wins MO. And McCrory wins NC.

  • rdelbov November 5, 2016 at 12:38 pm

    I love your bold stands on the US house rankings. No more tossups its team to cut bait and fish! By my count you are projecting +10D and that is where I am at.

    It pains me to think Crescent Hardy might lose but it seems likely. We nominated the wrong guy in NV3 so perhaps both seats fall. I think one survives. Maybe its Hardy but he needs a big election day vote to do it.

    • Left Coast Libertarian November 5, 2016 at 1:53 pm

      A toss-up ranking at the end is stupid. Anyone can say that it’ll go either way and they’ll be right that it will. And I pretty much agree with all the Senate and House flips.

  • aas34 November 5, 2016 at 1:07 pm

    I actually agree with just about all of it. I’d only switch the following:

    NH-Sen as a hold; NC-Sen as a loss.

    NH-Gov as a pickup.

    IL-10 as a hold; CA-49 as a loss; MI-1 as a loss; ME-2 as a loss; and VA-10 as a loss.


    32, R, CA-2

    • The Anonymous User November 5, 2016 at 5:21 pm

      IL-10 isn’t going to go Democratic, I personally can attest to that. Dold can’t outrun Trump by enough to win, and ultimately, that will doom him. That and the fact that it seems that Democrats are outspending Republicans.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

      • aas34 November 6, 2016 at 12:28 am

        Lmao, what does it mean that you can “attest to it”?

        Does it mean you’ve come back from the future and have seen the outcome?

        While the Trump drag will have an impact, your profile description may signify that your viewpoint is a bit clouded.

        From what I’ve seen over the course of 4-5 years, Schneider is weaker than a generic Democrat, while Dold is a very strong Republican for this district.

        Frankly, if the pre-2011 IL-10 still existed, Dold wouldn’t even be facing a race, as he’d be getting the Ros-Lehiten/Dent treatment from the DCCC.


        32, R, CA-2

        • The Anonymous User November 6, 2016 at 2:40 pm

          I mean that I live in the district, and I see what’s going on. Schneider is a good fit for the district. So is Dold, but he’s being hammered by Democrats on supporting everything. Basically, we have one goal here: Tie Dold to Donald Trump. It seems to be working, since Republicans have a harder job. Schneider is seen as moderate and a business Democrat here. I do think I know a little bit more about what’s happening in my district than you do in a district thousands of miles from where you live.


          Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

          • aas34 November 6, 2016 at 3:34 pm

            Ahhh, nothing like anecdotal evidence from someone either working or volunteering for a particular campaign!

            Or the old, I live in the district, thus I know how it’s going to play out despite it being called a toss up by most professionals!!

            If Schneider was such a great fit, one would think that he’d be running away in a D+8 district that Clinton’s going to win by around 20 points. Of course, it’s the same Schneider that lost in 2014 and barely won in 2012 when he had such long coat tails from Obama.

            Again, if this were a D+4/5 district, it wouldn’t even be a race.


            32, R, CA-2

            • The Anonymous User November 6, 2016 at 7:31 pm

              It isn’t as Democratic as the PVI suggests! Obama was from this area, and thus overperfomed both times. Trump is a uniquely bad fit, so he will underperform too. Downballot it still goes Republican often. Yes, it is called a Tossup, but I’ve called it Lean D since the start of the campaign. National candidates aren’t as great fits as Dold is for the district. In 2014, he outran Pat Quinn by a lot. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but I remember seeing an article saying Quinn got only 36% of the vote here. Him almost winning despite the huge Quinn loss was impressive. You cherrypick your evidence, I’ll cherrypick mine, and we’ll see who’s right on Election DAy. I would be shocked if Schneider doesn’t win. You haven’t addressed Democrats outspending Republicans. An hour ago, I walked into Panda Express to get some dinner, and I looked at the TV and there was a DCCC ad against Dold. I have barely seen any ads for Dold this year.


              Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

  • StatenIslandTest November 5, 2016 at 1:09 pm

    Just wondering why Garrett was moved to lean D? Its been lean R/Tossup even when Trump was in more of a mess.


    32, Jersey City

    • Left Coast Libertarian November 5, 2016 at 1:54 pm

      If they do it the way I do it, you figure that some toss-ups will go one way and some the other way and it could be interchangeable. If you think it’s likely the Democrats will pick up 12 GOP seats, you need to pick out 12.

      • krazen1211 November 5, 2016 at 7:19 pm

        I am mildly surprised that Blunt and Burr got the benefit of the doubt while Garrett and Mica didn’t.

        Still, excellent ratings.

      • The Anonymous User November 6, 2016 at 2:41 pm

        Not likely for the Tossups to split. In most years, the Tossups have went in one direction with few exceptions.


        Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

  • Jon Henrik Gilhuus November 5, 2016 at 1:09 pm

    I just finished writing up the ratings for my Norwegian site for publishing Tuesday morning, when I saw you’d posted this. Almost identical ratings! I still think Ayotte wins in NH and I still think Mica clings on in FL-7, but that’s it. Great minds think alike 😛


    The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
    - P.J. O'Rourke

  • Jon Henrik Gilhuus November 5, 2016 at 1:10 pm

    Though I might change NH-Gov to R pickup before Tuesday…


    The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
    - P.J. O'Rourke

  • w920us November 5, 2016 at 2:26 pm

    Has NY24 Katko fallen off the board?


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • shamlet November 5, 2016 at 2:33 pm

      No, just got left out because of a typo. It stays at Lean R.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • The Anonymous User November 6, 2016 at 7:32 pm

        I don’t get how NY-24 is rated more Democratic than NY-01. PVI?


        Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

        • shamlet November 6, 2016 at 7:53 pm

          Yeah, probably. It’s worth noting that we don’t actually discuss these as a group – we all just put in our lists and the final rating/ranking is the average of the group. So you have to ask all 7 of us individually.


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Greyhound November 6, 2016 at 8:39 pm

          Eh, I think Katko needs a full repeat impressive win in his district before I feel comfortable putting him as anything better than Lean R yet. That level of over-performance is just so unheard of nowadays that I’m still not completely sold that he’s going to win by 15+ again.

          And for the record, NY-1 is probably on the border between Lean & Likely too. Zeldin fits that district like a glove.


          R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

  • Republican Michigander November 5, 2016 at 2:58 pm

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/dump-trump-many-republicans-height-betrayal-111400787.html – Joe Heck’s gamble.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Republican Michigander November 5, 2016 at 3:00 pm

    I can’t argue the MI races. I agree with lean R for MI-1 (although it’s not out of danger) and I’m confident in MI-6, MI-7, and MI-8.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Conservative First November 5, 2016 at 4:40 pm

      Are you going to post predictions for Michigan state house? I’m interested to know what you think.

      • Republican Michigander November 5, 2016 at 5:13 pm

        I wish I had MIRS access. I saw clips of their final 15 most likely to flip, but didn’t see all of it with paywalls.

        I think we lose the 30th, 91st (for 2 year rental), 99th, and 61st. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 101st flips too. Scripps works extremely hard. I think the 23rd flips too, but I would not be surprised if Trump saves it. I have to believe it to see it with Downriver.

        I think Trump saves the 24th, and all “Up North” districts (outside the 101st) for us that we currently have. I’m going against my gut on the 24th based on what I’m hearing from others. I’m not confident on the 108th either, but heard positives from my contacts.
        I think we hold on the 71st due to candidate quality. Tom Barrett is working super hard and is a good guy. That goes a long ways.
        I’m going to trust my insider friends (who did doors) on the 62nd and go against my gut feeling on this. That’s a district we have no business having after redistricting.

        I think the 57th, 66th and 39th may be dark horses to watch.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • twinpines November 5, 2016 at 5:54 pm

          For those of you without MIRS access, here is the final list.

          1. 30th District (R to D) — *1

          Republican Donald TRUMP’s poll numbers in this district pull well for Diana FARRINGTON, but election-watchers say there’s just no fire in the campaign. Working off some residual favorable name ID from his father, Democratic candidate Michael NOTTE may be Democrats’ top shot for a pick-up.

          2. 91st District (R to D) — *2

          Among the most expensive House races this year, Republicans have poured more than $17,000 into the race in the final week to bolster incumbent Rep. Holly HUGHES (R-Montague), but a shadowy group has been boosting right-leaning libertarian candidate Max REISKE in an attempt to peel Trump voters away from Hughes. Democrats hope between a presidential year and splitting the Republican vote, they can collect the few hundred votes it takes to decide this seat.

          3. 62nd District (R to D) — *8

          Rep. John BIZON (R-Battle Creek) has done everything a candidate should do to hold on through a tough re-election against challenger Jim HAADSMA. If he weren’t a Republican who could be so easily tied to Trump, Bizon would be in the clear.

          4. 101st District (R to D) — *7

          Democrat Dan SCRIPPS’ 4-point lead in a recent poll is consistent with internal results showing the former House member’s advantage is outside the margin of error.

          5. 23rd District (R to D) — *6

          Republicans have stayed positive that Trump’s message may move the Republican vote toward Bob HOWEY, but when Rep. Pat SOMERVILLE (R-New Boston) won re-election in a 2012 presidential year, it was by fewer than 400 votes. Short of a Trump wave, things look good for Democratic candidate Darin CAMILLERI.

          6. 99th District (R to D) — *3

          This was nearly a runaway for Democratic candidate Bryan MIELKE with strong early fundraising. But Republican Roger HAUCK, with a little guidance from the caucus, is reported to have found his feet in the general election to finish strong. Both sides agree this will be a close one.

          7. 108th District (R to D) — *9

          Republican Beau LaFAVE appeared to have locked up the race against Democratic candidate Scott CELELLO early on, but Democrats poured a lot of money into the airwaves to remind voters that Celello has experience as a county sheriff. In the last filing period before the election, Celello far outraised LaFave.

          8. 61st District (R to D) — *5

          First-term Rep. Brandt IDEN (R-Oshtemo Twp.) didn’t spend much time campaigning in his district after winning the seat in 2014 and that could cost him the election. The positives are high for Democratic candidate John FISHER, a local pastor, thanks to Democrats spending a lot of time and money re-introducing him to voters. One strike against him could be he is too liberal for the district.

          9. 71st District (R to D) — *11

          Money has poured in on both sides for this race, in defense of their candidate. Rep. Tom BARRETT (R-Potterville) has doggedly walked the doors of the 71st District, while Democrats say 7th Congressional District candidate Gretchen DRISKELL’s aggressive ground game in Eaton County may give a lift to Theresa ABED.

          10. 57th District (R to D) — *13

          Democrat and local pharmacist Harvey SCHMIDT is well known and well liked in the 57th district, though Republican Bronna KAHLE has worked hard for election, fighting hard in the primary. Democrats’ focus on Schmidt came late in the cycle, however — could it be a ploy to shake Republicans’ attention from more vulnerable seats?

          11. 66th District (R to D) — *12

          Democrats focus on this district also could be a red herring to draw aside Republicans’ attention from more vulnerable seats like the 61st or 62nd. Either way, the GOP is taking the bait.

          In the final weeks of the election the House Democratic fund has invested late in their candidate Annie BROWN with independent expenditures. The House Republican Campaign Committee has sunk a quarter-million into Republican candidate Beth GRIFFIN over the cycle, $97,000 of which came this week.

          12. 20th District (R to D) — *15

          Seeing an opportunity for victory, Democratic candidate Colleen POBUR has sunk her own money into going up on TV and focusing her message on college-educated women in the suburban district. If Pobur wins over Republican candidate Jeff NOBLE, it’ll be from pulling up on her own bootstraps.

          13. 39th District (R to D) — *14

          No one doubts this race will be close. Rep. Klint KESTO (R-Commerce Twp.) is both a strong fundraiser and stronger campaigner, raising over $200,000 this cycle, but Democrats have loaded resources behind their candidate, Michael STACK, hoping top-of-the-ticket numbers may carry them through.

          14. 106th District (R to D) — *4

          Republican candidate Sue ALLOR may be from the “wrong part” of the district — the Cheboygan area as opposed to the more densely populated Alpena or Presque Isle — but she’s made up for it on the campaign trail. Meanwhile, Democrat Robert KENNEDY tripped up when he was caught pulling his opponent’s sign out of the ground. Kennedy also may be among those harmed by House Democrats’ introduction of an assault rifle ban just two weeks before Election Day.

          15. 24th District (R to D) — *10

          Democrats in Lansing found gold in recorded audio of Republican candidate Steve MARINO, but it appears to have spun into plain, old hay. Attacks on Marino resonated more in Lansing than back home in his Macomb district and Democratic candidate Dana CAMPHOUS-PETERSON did little to take any advantage there was. Trump is strong in Macomb and Marino has a good shot to make it to Lansing — if a little worse for wear.

          Honorable Mention: 103rd District (R to D) — *NR

          A fresh fusion of cash into the campaign of Democrat Jordan STANCIL has popped on radars in Lansing. Rep. Adam ZEMKE’s (D-Ann Arbor) APC, Engineering Michigan’s Future Fund, put $7,500 into Stancil’s coffers in the last week. Republican Daire RENDON has reported been working to take over her husband, term-limit Rep. Bruce RENDON’s (R-Lake City) seat for some time, but one can help but wonder what is going on up there in the northwest? Could this been a surprise flip on Tuesday night?


          MI SD-38, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

        • twinpines November 5, 2016 at 6:17 pm

          I am actually quite optimistic now about the Michigan state house and feel that we could see only 1-2 seats lost. Things seem to be improving.


          MI SD-38, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

        • twinpines November 5, 2016 at 8:25 pm

          I personally feel that HD 101 is the only where we are certain to lose. We are being badly outspent 4:1 and clearly republicans don’t feel its worth the money inspite of the party having a 2:1 cash advantage in the home stretch. I have concerns like you do about 30, 91, and 99. I also feel 62 and 108. But out of those 5, I expect a loss of maybe 1-2. So overall I expect to lose HD 101 plus 1-2 more. I am more confident with district 61. I just don’t see that one happening. The dems would be outspending us there if they really thought they could win it. But it seems to be treated as a mid-range target rather then a top-target. With clearly no disaster happening on the top of the ticket in Michigan, its likely R.


          MI SD-38, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

          • twinpines November 5, 2016 at 8:26 pm

            I also feel there is a chance of a dark horse win in HD 17. Not likely but possible with Trump certain to win that district.


            MI SD-38, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

          • Red Oaks November 6, 2016 at 12:48 pm

            I’m inclined to agree on district 101. The silver lining is that Scripps can only keep it two terms and will be term limited in 2020, when the GOP will have a chance to win it back in time for redistricting.


            MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

  • Conservative First November 5, 2016 at 4:16 pm

    RM posted this on the other thread, but worth repeating:
    MI-1: Bergman 51 Johnson 42
    https://mirsnews.com/welcome.php

  • andyroo312 November 5, 2016 at 4:29 pm

    Agreed on the Senate races, except I suspect Ayotte holds on.


    MA-7

  • PostTenebrasLux November 5, 2016 at 4:29 pm

    On senate, I think Ayotte is going to hold on. I think everything else is correct.


    28. Male. AZ-6. R. Waiting to draw conclusions about President-Elect Trump.

  • cer November 5, 2016 at 5:11 pm

    Toomey will win PA or the ranking should be no worse then a toss-up.


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • The Anonymous User November 5, 2016 at 5:22 pm

      Toomey won’t win, McGinty seems to be pulling ahead.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

      • cer November 5, 2016 at 5:26 pm

        Toomey will WIN PA…


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • Son_of_the_South November 5, 2016 at 5:32 pm

          Maybe, but stating it doesn’t make it true. Come on, man…


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • twinpines November 5, 2016 at 5:57 pm

            I agree, that we will lose Pennsylvania. From the 538 site, Toomey seems to be doing poor in the polls. I feel that this is likely a loss. Sad but we got to face reality. I feel our chance here is similiar to WI. Possible, but not likely. I think our chance to hold the senate hinges on MO and NH as I think we will lose NV. If we can hold both MO and NH we should keep the senate. If we lose one, then its over. I am optimistic about IN and NC. FL with Rubio is not even a race at this point. He is a great senator and I hope future president.


            MI SD-38, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

  • The Anonymous User November 5, 2016 at 5:23 pm

    Why isn’t KS-03 on the board, why are MI-07 and NY-01 being moved to Likely R, and I have all sorts of other quibbles with your ratings.


    Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

    • Son_of_the_South November 5, 2016 at 5:26 pm

      RE: NY-01, both public and private polling has Zeldin ahead comfortablely.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • RRR November 5, 2016 at 5:39 pm

      Then post yours, and we can evaluate whose are more correct after the election. I have a hunch….


      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • Republican Michigander November 5, 2016 at 6:12 pm

      I’m hearing Walberg’s in fairly good shape.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • The Anonymous User November 6, 2016 at 2:43 pm

        I’m hearing just the opposite. From what I’ve heard, Democrats are outspending Republicans in MI-07 by a lot. I’m frankly quite confused by everyone moving MI-07 away from Dems.


        Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

    • shamlet November 5, 2016 at 7:15 pm

      KS-3 was a typo on my part; it should have been Likely R which is now fixed.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • The Anonymous User November 6, 2016 at 2:44 pm

        Makes sense, since Yoder is still favored, but Sidie has an outside chance of winning. DCCC is spending in this district, which could drag Sidie to a victory.


        Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

  • twinpines November 5, 2016 at 6:13 pm

    OGGoldy, is there is an update coming for MN house. In my gut, I feel its going to be very close and could go either way. Would be happy to know your take. Personally I wouldn’t be surprised with a tie. I expect Trump to win a slight majority of the state House districts but the dems always overperform.


    MI SD-38, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

  • twinpines November 5, 2016 at 10:41 pm

    All the light blue in the governor’s map is sad. I mostly agree but I think we have a decent chance with NH from recent polls and probably 50-50 in NC.


    MI SD-38, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

  • kewgardens November 5, 2016 at 11:10 pm

    On the Senate Races:

    Would move Missouri and Indiana to lean Dem. Missouri polls show a near dead heat and Dems always seem to do well in statewide down ballot races in presidential years. Plus Blunt is a terrible candidate. There is only one Indiana poll showing Young ahead of Bayh. Would like to see another. This race is super close but I’m still not convinced Young pulls it out in the end.

    On the House Races:

    Still think you guys are too optimistic. I would move FL-26 and FL-18 to lean Dem. Until we see some more improvement in the Colorado numbers, I would also move CO-06 to lean Dem. Finally, I’m still uncomfortable about the CA-25 race and would move it to lean Dem.

    NY-22, MI-01, ME-02, IN-09 and CA-49 should all belong in a separate “Tilt GOP” column. I could easily all of these going Dem on Tuesday. Indeed, the latest public poll has Cain over Poliquin so maybe that race should be Lean Dem.

    • The Anonymous User November 6, 2016 at 2:49 pm

      You’re more optimistic in Indiana than many Democrats! Congratulations! I’m serious, lots of Dems on DKE are going around saying “Bayh’s not gonna win, Young has the momentum”, or “Unfortunately, but not really sadly, Young will win. It’s unfortunate for Democrats, but Bayh is someone I was holding my nose for.” or “DOOOOOOOMMMMM!!!!”. At least, that last one is the stereotype of Democratic pessimists. I think Kander does win Missouri Senate in the end, since Blunt is a terrible campaigner and Kander is a great one. On everything else, I agree with you, except maybe FL-18, where Brian Mast seems to be doing strong. I favor Perkins to win, but I could easily see Mast winning. I think NY-22 should be Lean D, since Babinec probably will take more away from Tenney than Myers, but I don’t know what to make of NY-22 anymore. I don’t know if Tenney wins, if Myers wins, if it goes to a recount. At this point all three of them exactly tying wouldn’t surprise me.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

      • Manhatlibertarian November 6, 2016 at 8:37 pm

        Well in the NY 22nd, both Siena polls taken showed Tenney ahead, by 5 in one by 4 in the other. You would think Babinec’s candidacy would have doomed Tenney, but he apparently takes enough votes away from Myers that the Dems have run a TV ad criticizing him. Retiring congressman Hanna’s non endorsement of Tenney hurt her, but it is not fatal. This CD is GOP leaning, one of three in NY that Romney carried in 2012, and the Siena poll has Trump easily carrying the CD, which should help Tenney who has clearly endorsed him. So I don’t see how this seat is lean Dem. It could go either way but I think there is a tilt toward Tenney.

  • GerGOP November 6, 2016 at 4:33 am

    I think you’re a tad bullish on the House Rates, tbh. Ill have to make my own final projections tonight, but CA looks to be a darker place than you make it out to be.

    D+10 would be a best case scenario for the GOP, imho.

  • w920us November 6, 2016 at 2:53 pm

    Good grief. I’ve had two different Hillary people visit in the last two hours. They know to hit up people during an Eagles game.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • RRR November 6, 2016 at 3:22 pm

      I’d imagine you’d anger a lot of voters that way.


      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • Manhatlibertarian November 6, 2016 at 8:06 pm

      Is the transit strike in Philly likely to continue into Tuesday? If so not good news for the Dems as it would depress turnout.

      • w920us November 6, 2016 at 8:14 pm

        SEPTA strike will have minimal effect on voting. In the city you are usually only 1-3 blocks away from your polling place.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

        • Manhatlibertarian November 6, 2016 at 8:24 pm

          But I was thinking more that people who are not strongly committed to a candidate would have enough problems with traveling back and forth to work during the strike and might just skip voting. I think that would hurt the Dems more.

          • w920us November 6, 2016 at 8:27 pm

            Well yeah any negative effect will almost solely be on the Democrats given the heavy lean of the city. It could also hurt those Democrats just outside the city who do live further from their polling places. But again it won’t be significant imho.


            R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
            #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

            • Manhatlibertarian November 6, 2016 at 8:40 pm

              So in your opinion it is not going to be Toomey’s salvation.

              • w920us November 6, 2016 at 9:09 pm

                I guess the lack of enthusiasm for Dems compared to Republicans could help. I’m still holding out hope for Toomey.


                R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
                #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • Manhatlibertarian November 6, 2016 at 8:17 pm

    I also think the Repubs will hang on to the senate by 51-49, losing Pa, Ill and Wis. I think most recent polls have been favorable to Ayotte and with Trump and Clinton neck and neck in the state, he is no longer a drag on her. Looks like Trump will likely narrowly carry NC, and I can’t imagine Burr losing in that scenario. Young and Rubio should win but I think Heck will likely lose. The one race that still concerns me is MO. I think Trump easily wins the state and drags Blunt across the finish line, but just barely as he has not run a good campaign. If the GOP does lose the senate it will be because he is loss number four.

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