Re-Redistricting North Carolina’s Legislature, Part 2 1/2: A Revised House Plan

Here is an addendum to the collaboration between me and GOPTarHeel on Re-redistricting the North Carolina House. The special election order has been stayed, but we thought we’d take a gander at it anyway to show how it should be done in the very possible event that the order is reinstated by SCOTUS. Basically we’ve been informed that cracking Mecklenburg is not feasible, so with some rejiggering we have come up with a plan that does not have a district crossing out of Mecklenburg County.

The non-Charlotte urban portions of the map (in Cumberland, Durham, Guilford, Orange, and Wake Counties) are identical to the previous version with two numbering exceptions – district 11 on the current map is renumbered to 48 instead of 55 on the old version, and the numbers of districts 40 and 49 have been flipped to better correspond to incumbent residencies. The unaffected counties are ate the bottom of the post. This map affects 7 more districts (6 R, 1D) than the part 2 version, but one district (the current district 55) is now unaffected. All 6 newly-affected GOP seats should be Safe for their incumbents, and all but one (16) are at least 90% similar to their current seats, so it’s more a nuisance for them than anything.

Part 1 covers the Senate. Part 2 was our original House plan which split Mecklenburg.

General principles, in order of hierarchy were as follows:

1) Respect county lines and compactness and meet population targets (+/-5% deviation from ideal). No multi-district county “pod” in this map is more than 4 counties, significantly less than is the case in the current map.
2) Be racially neutral except where there are obvious opportunities to make a clean minority-opportunity seat
3) Attempt to give all GOP incumbents districts that are Lean R at worst, contain their homes, and are relatively similar to their current seats (I think I’ve succeeded in all but two cases, one in each chamber)
4) Otherwise maximize GOP advantage and maximize the number of GOP incumbents that don’t have to run at all in 2017 (i.e. leave as many Republican seats alone as possible)

If a racial breakdown is not given that means the seat is at least 60% White VAP. The map places 64 seats up in 2017 if the special election order is upheld. For comparison, HERE is an interactive version of the current map from DKE. Now here is our statewide map – white is seats that are unchanged.

The seats break down as follows: 27 GOP-held, 37 Dem-held.
16 Safe R (1 D-held)
9 Likely R
3 Lean R (1 D-held)
3 Tossup (all D-held)
1 Lean D (R-held)
4 Likely D
28 Safe D

Eastern NC:

1. Steinberg (R-Edenton) R+4 Lean R

Unfortunately we start off with one of the worst parts of the map; because of the small size of the counties in NE NC, you pretty much have to respect county lines and that means Bob Steinburg (R) has very little choice but to drop blood-red Currituck County and picks up the black parts of Elizabeth City. This seat was almost won by Obama in 2008 but has trended right since (Trump won it 55-42). That said, it has some Dem heritage that could give Steinburg trouble if Dems recruit a strong candidate. For 2017 I’d say Steinburg starts as a moderate favorite.

2. Yarborough (R-Roxboro) R+7 Likely R

This seat was held by Dems until 2014; it undergoes some very minor modifications in the remap just to clean up the lines in Oxford that are currently a jagged set of interlocking tentacles with district 32. Incumbent Larry Yarborough (R) should be okay, but he also lives in an open State Senate seat under my plan, so the seat may be open and Dems might have an outside shot at flipping it.

3. Speciale (R-New Bern) R+9 Safe R

The old version of this district included Pamlico and the southern half of Beaufort, which comprised most of the district’s land area, but the bulk of its population, and incumbent Michael Speciale’s (R) residence, lies in New Bern, which is now united in one seat after being chopped up into 3 different districts in the previous map. Still totally safe for Speciale.

4. Dixon (R-Warsaw) R+13 Safe R

This seat loses its arm into the Goldsboro area and gets an arm into the Kinston area instead in order to make a Goldsboro-to-Kinston black-opportunity seat. This is a seat that would have been competitive 10 years ago but should be safe for Republicans now.

5. Hunter (D-Ahoskie) D+8 44W/52B Safe D

This seat loses its portion of Elizabeth City and gains Martin County; it remains black-majority.

6. Boswell (R-Kill Devil Hills) R+9 Likely R

Incumbent Beverly Boswell (R) squeaked to her first term this year after her opponent died the week before the election. She gets a significant boost by losing some historically D areas of Beaufort County and adding blood-red Currituck County; Trump won this seat 60-36. However, this area has enough Dem heritage and Boswell seems weak enough to lose if enough things go Dems’ way.

7. B. Richardson (D-Louisburg) R+3 62W/30B Tossup

This seat previously had a large number of tentacles to grab every black-majority area in Nash and Franklin counties. Now it loses those tentacles, most notably Rocky Mount city, and becomes Franklin County and some rural areas in northwestern Nash. Obama narrowly carried this seat in 2008, but Franklin went for Trump by about 10 and he probably carried this district overall too. Incumbent Bobbie Richardson (D) will definitely have a tough race on her hands, though she may also run for State Senate as she lives in an open swingy Senate seat. Dems have the heritage of the area on their side, particularly if a more conservative Dem is nominated, but this is nowadays a mildly R-leaning district. Overall it looks like a pure Tossup.

8. S. Martin (R-Wilson) and Farmer-Butterfield (D-Wilson) EVEN 53W/37B Lean D Pickup

And now we come to the one GOP House member who is really not going to be happy about this plan. Incumbent Susan Martin (R) squeaked to re-election in a district covering the white parts of Wilson County and a chunk of Pitt this past year. But she unfortunately lives in Wilson County, which happens to be the perfect size for a State House district. Under NC’s redistricting standards, if a county is the right size for a House seat, you better have a good reason to split it, and since the prior good reason (VRA5) is gone, Wilson County pretty much has to be kept whole. Which sucks for Martin, because Clinton carried the county by a few points, and it also has another incumbent, Jean Farmer-Butterfield (D) of district 24. Farmer-Butterfield, ex-wife of US Rep. GK (D), is probably a significant favorite over Martin, but there’s a possibility low turnout could mean an upset. If Farmer-Butterfield didn’t run here, 2016 nominee Charlie Pat Farris (D) would probably be just as strong a favorite. Martin might be better advised to take her chances against Freshman State Sen. Rick Horner (R) in a primary for an R-leaning district covering the area.

9. Murphy (R-Greenville) R+11 Safe R

Dems targeted the current version of this seat in 2012 and came close to winning it, so I gave it a boost by taking out downtown Greenville and taking Greene County. The tentacles near Greenville are there to include the home of incumbent Greg Murphy (R). It is a fair amount of new territory for Murphy, but this winds up being the cleanest way to make a bulletproof Republican seat out of the overall Dem-leaning Greenville area. Given continued trends in the area it should be Safe.

10. J. Bell (R-Goldsboro) R+16 Safe R

The current version of this seat is one of the most contorted legislative districts in the country, a spiraling mass of spaghetti stretching from Goldsboro to Kinston to New Bern. But the new seat is much nicer – it covers Wayne County outside the central part of Goldsboro, including some nearby areas that had been in the old 4th. It is still Safe; though it has quite a bit of new territory for incumbent John Bell (R), it’s all closer to his home so he should be okay unless he screws up.

11. OPEN (D) R+11 Safe R Pickup

This is a brand new seat, carved out of portions of 5 current seats. This seat is ultimately being relocated from the Sandhills area – districts 21, 22, 48, and 66 have overall been condensed down to form the cores of three new districts. As all four of those are Dem-held, this seat should be an automatic flip (as this seat is solidly Republican barring exceptional circumstances). This seat is also relatively clean and doesn’t really wreak havoc on any current GOP incumbent’s district.

12. G. Graham (D-Kinston) D+6 45W/47B Safe D

Goldsboro and Kinston anchored two black-majority seats on the old map, which sprawled across a large territory to grab black voters. However, by combining the two you can make a very clean black-plurality seat that should be safe for a black Dem. Incumbent George Graham (D) lives here and would probably get this seat, but a slightly larger amount of the territory is from district 21 of Larry Bell (D), who may decide to move to Goldsboro and run here if he wants the best chance of staying in the legislature. This seat can be bumped up to black majority with minor changes, while only getting a bit uglier and not affecting any of the adjacent districts’ safety, but since the court had a relatively broad concept of “racial gerrymander” I decided to prioritize cleanliness here.

14. Cleveland (R-Jacksonville) R+13 Safe R

This is the first seat that undergoes very minor modifications. Jacksonville’s districts are underpopulated, so I used district 16 to soak up some population from the Sandhills. The other two then need to take a small amount of territory from district 16. This seat is about 90% identical to the previous version.

15. Phillips (R-Jacksonville) R+13 Safe R

Another seat that just needed to be modified to make the populations work out and is 90% identical to its previous form. Other than the nuisance of having to run in 2017 if the special election is upheld neither incumbent should face the slightest trouble.

16. Millis (R-Hampstead) R+10 Safe R

This is the only seat not directly affected by or adjacent to a seat covered by the litigation that gets a significant revamp, in order to take population away from the Sandhills seats. Incumbent Chris Millis (D) loses some deep-red areas around Jacksonville and gets a multi-ethnic, historically D slice of Bladen County. However, this seat is about 80% the same as Millis’s old seat and still pretty strongly Republican, so he should be safe in the primary and general.

21. OPEN D+6 43W/33B/10H/10N Likely D

The current districts in the Sandhills area are a massive pile of spaghetti. This is the seat that falls out from cleaning up the lines and trying to make a district of just Richmond and Scotland counties. This area zoomed right last year, but this multi-ethnic seat is probably still Dem-leaning. District 48 incumbent Garland Pierce (D) lives just outside the seat and could run here, while State Sen. Ben Clark (D) lives in this seat but not in his new Senate district as I drew it and could drop down rather than moving or running in a conservative district. This seat may be worth contesting by Republicans given how this area has been trending, but given the demographics Likely D may be something of a generous call.

22. L. Bell (D-Clinton) and Brisson (D-Dublin) R+7 57W/28B/12H Tossup

Longtime incumbent Bill Brisson (D) of district 22 is one of maybe 3 rural Conservadems left in NC. He was unopposed the last couple cycles, but gets a revamped district here, and gets double-bunked with black incumbent Larry Bell (D) of the adjacent district 21. This is far more Brisson’s district than Bell’s. However, Brisson barely won his primary last year and with less of his native Bladen County in the seat Bell would probably be favored in a primary matchup if they both ran. This is an area with a strong Dem heritage, and Brisson is a strong incumbent, so Brisson would probably be slightly better than even money to hold this seat if he were renominated. But this area continues to trend right, and Republicans would probably be favored to pick up this district if Democrats nominate Bell or anyone other than Brisson.

23. Willingham (D-Rocky Mount) D+10 43W/51B Safe D

Incumbent Shelly Willingham (D) had a simple district of Edgecombe and Martin counties, which I was hesitant to break up, but this change was necessary to minimize county splits through the rest of the map. This district loses Martin (about a third of the old seat) and replaces it with suburban and rural northern and western Pitt county. It is still black majority and should be safe for Willingham.

24. OPEN (D) D+12 57W/35B Safe D

This is the seat that opens up from Farmer-Butterfield’s chunk of Pitt County, with most of the population base in urban Greenville. Jean Farmer-Butterfield (D) might move here if she doesn’t want to take on Susan Martin (R) in Wilson’s district 8, but otherwise this seat should elect a black Dem from Greenville. Blacks and liberal whites from ECU keep this Safe D and blacks should dominate the Dem primary, though there is some chance this seat could elect a white liberal instead.

25. Collins (R-Rocky Mount) R+7 59W/33B Likely R

The remainder of Nash County not in district 7 goes to district 25, which had been the white half of a set of interlocking tentacles sprawling across Nash and Franklin counties. Incumbent Jeff Collins (R) takes a hit by adding in the heavily black western half of Rocky Mount, but the exurban and rural southwestern part of this district is deep red, so he should be okay barring very unusual circumstances. The seat also takes in a little bit of deep-red Johnston to equalize population and give Collins a marginal boost. That said, this area has some Dem heritage, which is enough to make me put it in the Likely R category out of an abundance of caution.

26. McDowell-White (R-Clayton) R+11 Safe R

The two Johnston County districts undergo very minor modifications. Johnston is just a little too much for two seats. It had been attatched to Sampson, which also has overpopulated districts. By attaching it to Nash instead you make the populations more even and help out district 25 a little. This seat is 90% identical to the previous version.

28. Strickland (R-Pine Level) R+19 Safe R

Another seat that undergoes minor modifications to equalize population but is 90% identical to the current configuration; it just shifts south very slightly. Still based in the deep-red outer Johnston County exurbs. Both Johnston seats should be safe for their incumbents in the primary and general.

32. Garrison (D-Henderson) D+12 45W/48B Safe D

This seat is basically unchanged, it just cleans up its interlocking tentacles with district 2 in Oxford, and that causes it to lose its black majority by a hair. It should still be safe for a black Dem.

46. Br. Jones (R-Tabor City) R+9 Lean R

Freshman Rep. Brenden Jones (R) lost a bid for this seat in 2014 but won it in 2016 by a 20-point margin when his opponent self-destructed. That said, this is one of the most historically-D areas of the state and a credible Dem would still have a shot at flipping this seat with low turnout. Thus I tried to give Jones only the most Republican parts of Robeson County to add to his Columbus County base. Lean R is something of a cautious rating on this district as it continues to trend right, but if Dems want to claw back a rural seat this one and district 1 are probably their only good opportunities.

47. C. Graham (D-Lumberton) D+7 20W/21B/52N Likely D

This is a Lumbee-majority district, represented by Charles Graham (D), who is of Lumbee heritage. This seat zoomed right in 2016 to a degree seen in few other places in the entire nation, and there is a chance Trump may have actually won the seat. Seeing as we ousted the local state Senator from a Dem vote sink in 2016 as well, this seat would be worth seriously contesting. The D heritage here is strong, so Graham is probably still a significant favorite, but if we get a strong challenger this district could be in play. It’s probably worth contesting just for the sake of trying to reinforce our inroads with the Lumbee population.

52. Boles (R-Southern Pines) R+12 Safe R

This is the final seat that undergoes minor modifications. The Sandhills Dem seats were way overpopulated, while the districts for Moore and Randolph Counties were way underpopulated. So to fix that, I transferred the small portion of Montgomery belonging to the old district 66 into district 52. It’s only about 5K so this seat is still within population targets. Other than the annoyance of having to run in 2017 if the specials are still on, Boles should face no problems.

66. Pierce (D-Wagram) and Goodman (D-Rockingham) EVEN 57W/32B Likely D

Incumbent Garland Pierce (D) of district 48 and incumbent Ken Goodman (D) of district 66 are double-bunked here in a simple pairing of Richmond and Scotland Counties; their two current districts consist of a messy set of tentacles sprawling across the entire Sandhills region. This seat seat could see a messy primary, or Pierce could potentially run in district 21 next door which contains a significant amount of his current territory. This seat trended right last year, and Trump won this district by 2 points. That said, this is still a very historically-D area, so either Goodman or Pierce would probably be favored. But this seat would definitely be worth contesting by Republicans.

Mecklenburg County:

Much like Wake County, the seats in Charlotte were a dummymander. Of the 12 seats in Mecklenburg on the current map, we tried for 6 and currently hold 4. As wealthy areas of Mecklenburg have been trending hard away from us, I decided to try and just preserve those four seats, while keeping 5 black-opportunity seats. The other 3 are white liberal districts.

88. Belk (D-Charlotte) D+13 44W/27B/22H Safe D

This seat was dummymandered; we lost it last year as the wealthy south side of Charlotte stampeded away from us. This map shifts it south and west, becoming white-plurality rather than majority, and it should be safe for a white liberal. First-term incumbent Mary Belk (D) may live in the adjacent district 102 but most of her territory is here.

92. Beasley (D-Charlotte) D+19 37W/44B/11H Safe D

This was another dummymandered seat, as we attempted to wrap around a seat through the western Mecklenburg suburbs, which are stampeding left as middle-class blacks are moving in. A large portion of African-Americans in southwest Charlotte from the black-majority district 102 are moved here as it makes the seats a bit cleaner.

98. Bradford (R-Cornelius) R+10 Safe R

This seat doesn’t change much at all, but Trump held up better in the exurban northern part of Mecklenburg than the wealthy suburban south side of Charlotte, so this seat should still be safe.

99. R. Moore (D-Charlotte) D+24 31W/46B/17H Safe D

This seat goes from black-majority to black-plurality and cleans up a bit but should still be safe for a black Dem. It is probably majority-black by CVAP because of the sizeable Hispanic population.

100. Autry (D-Charlotte) D+17 43W/34B/19H Safe D

This seat undergoes minor changes; it is still a multi-ethnic white plurality seat that should be safe for a white liberal.

101. Earle (D-Charlotte) D+19 39W/50B Safe D

The seat expands out to the Catawba River to become cleaner but maintains its black-majority status by a hair.

102. Carney (D-Charlotte) D+19 54W/29B/10H Safe D

This seat was previously black-majority but it winds up being cleaner to make it into a downtown-based white liberal seat. Incumbent Becky Carney (D), who is white, should be favored here even though she has a lot of new territory. However, freshman incumbent Mary Belk (D) of district 88 may actually live here as well and it contains a chunk of her territory. A primary between the two would be competitive.

103. Brawley (R-Matthews) R+10 Likely R

This seat loses a couple tough precincts but is largely the same. Incumbent Bill Brawley (R) should be fine here unless we really erode further in wealthy suburbs over the next year.

104. Dulin (R-Charlotte) R+10 Likely R

The wealthy southern part of Charlotte stampeded away from us this past year, so this combines the more Republican parts of the dummymandered districts 88 and 104 to make a single Republican seat. Incumbent Andy Dulin (R) should be favored barring additional massive erosion of the GOP baseline.

105. Stone (R-Charlotte) R+9 Likely R

This seat makes only minor changes though it loses a couple choice tough precincts. Incumbent Scott Stone (R) should still be favored here unless there is major continued dropoff in the wealthy suburbs.

106. Cunningham (D-Charlotte) D+29 32W/44B/14H Safe D

Loses its black majority and cleans up a bit but is still safe for a black Dem. It may be black-majority by CVAP because of the Hispanic population.

107. Alexander (D-Charlotte) D+23 37W/48B Safe D

This seat cleans up slightly but is similar to the previous version. It is black-plurality as of 2010 but is probably black-majority by now given population trends in this area.

Seats unaffected from prior version (analysis is identical):

Durham County:

29. L. Hall (D-Durham) D+30 35W/49B Safe D

House Minority Leader Larry Hall (D) loses his seat’s black majority by a hair and shifts south to the county line but otherwise few changes.

30. Lehman (D-Durham) D+23 59W/19B/12H Safe D

Drops some tentacles but otherwise doesn’t change much.

31. Michaux (D-Durham) D+28 31W/49B/17H Safe D

Moves out to the county line and drops tentacles, and is just a hair shy of majority black, but otherwise only very  minor changes.

50. Meyer (D-Chapel Hill) D+5 Safe D

Drops some tentacles but otherwise very minor changes. The Orange County portion of the district is entirely identical to the previous version. The PVI might be close to the competitive range, but I would wager the seat has trended left in the last 8 years.

Wake County:

The Wake County portion of the map is very much a dummymander: Republicans tried to go for 6/11 seats, which has turned into an 8D-3R map as Wake has trended hard left. This map protects our three remaining incumbents and carves a fourth Republican seat out of two districts we lost this past year.

33. Gill (D-Raleigh) D+25 34W/50B/12H Safe D

Extends out to the Wake County line, but is still majority-black.

34. G. Martin (D-Raleigh) and Ball (D-Raleigh) D+10 Safe D

Incumbent Grier Martin (D) is considered a rising star in the NCDP; his seat is still a Raleigh white liberal vote sink, but he now takes on some liberal precincts from the adjacent district 49. Fellow incumbent Cynthia Ball (D) lives in one of those precincts and could run here, but if she did Martin would probably still be favored as this seat is almost entirely Martin’s territory.

35. Malone (R-Wake Forest) R+7 Likely R

Incumbent Chris Malone (R) drops some of his toughest precincts and gets a relatively safe seat. The area could continue to trend left so this might be a long-shot opportunity for Dems, but it’s a lot more secure than his old district.

36. Dollar (R-Cary) R+8 Likely R

Incumbent Nelson Dollar (R) is a big fish in the House GOP caucus and is sitting in a pretty tough district. Dollar barely held on this year, but this map should help him a lot as he drops some tough inner suburban precincts and expands south into more Republican exurbs. This seat will likely continue to trend left but for now Dollar should be a strong favorite barring something unexpected.

37. Hunt-Williams (R-Holly Springs) R+8 Likely R

Freshman Rep. Linda Hunt-Williams (R) won the one Wake district that was still relatively secure on the old map, but expanding her seat west into territory that was wasted on the dummymandered district 41 allows Dollar to be more secure. It’s still a fairly strong but not idiot-proof GOP district.

38. Lewis-Holley (D-Raleigh) D+26 33W/45B/16H Safe D

This was the second black-majority district in Raleigh. Because of the jagged precinct lines here the seat isn’t much cleaner than the old version. It’s still plurality black (probably still CVAP majority black) and totally safe for any black Dem.

39. Jackson (D-Raleigh) D+7 51W/31B/13H Safe D

This was a seat that Republicans tried to get as a long-shot pickup opportunity on the old map, which was pretty well obviated by Wake’s leftward trend. Here it soaks up some blue precincts from district 35 and focuses on some fast-growing suburbs that are becoming home to more black middle class residents.

40. John (D-Raleigh) R+8 Lean R Pickup

This very wealthy seat is carved out of two seats that were both flipped by Dems in 2016. District 40 incumbent Joe John (D) lives here, while district 49 incumbent Cynthia Ball (D) represents most of the seat’s southern half. John could potentially run here, the revamped and much more Dem-heavy district 49 around RDU airport, or the GOP-held State Senate seat covering the area. This seat should be a GOP pickup, especially with low turnout; State Sens. John Alexander (R) and Chad Barefoot (R), who are double-bunked on the Senate map, both live here. Hopefully one would agree to drop down. There is a chance John could hang on here with the benefit of incumbency, but honestly Lean R is probably a cautious rating for this seat.

41. Adcock (D-Cary) EVEN Likely D

This seat formerly included deep-red territory in the southwest corner of Wake County in an attempt to make a swing seat. But incumbent Gale Adcock (D) won this seat in 2014 and was not seriously challenged in 2016, so the seat is made more Dem to help out the remaining incumbents. The PVI of this seat is likely well into D+ territory by now after eight years of leftward shifts. With low turnout it could be a long-shot GOP pickup opportunity in 2017, but Adcock looks like a very significant favorite.

48. Du. Hall (D-Raleigh) D+9 Safe D

This seat is basically the same as the old district 11, a Dem vote sink for upper-middle-class suburban white liberals and NC State students in Raleigh and Cary.

49. OPEN D+6 Safe D

This seat is full of medium-blue upper-middle-class suburbs that were sliced and diced between three Republican districts on the old map – and caused all three to fall to Dems. Here they’re consolidated into a new Safe D district. Newly elected Reps. Joe John (D) of district 40 and Cynthia Ball (D) of district 49 do not live here (John lives in a Republican district and Ball lives in district 34 which has another D incumbent) but might be advised to move here if they wish to have the best chance of staying in the legislature.

Cumberland County:

42. Lucas (D-Spring Lake) D+13 47W/36B/11H Safe D

This seat previously had a lot of wild tentacles to be a second black-majority seat, but now it takes in Fort Bragg. As a big chunk of the white population is active-duty Fort Bragg soldiers this seat should still reliably return a black Dem in the primary and general.

43. Floyd (D-Fayetteville) D+23 33W/52B Safe D

The black population from the old district 42 and 43 are combined into this black-majority seat.

44. W. Richardson (D-Fayetteville) R+3 58W/27B Tossup

This seat gets cleaned up slightly but is still a pure Tossup district. Incumbent William Richardson (D) held on narrowly in 2016, beating Fayetteville councilman Jim Arp (R) by 2 points. Arp could have a better chance in this district if he tried again with lower turnout, but Richardson, an appointee when he first won in 2016, would have another year of incumbency under his belt.

45. Szoka (R-Fayetteville) R+10 Safe R

This seat loses its arm into Fort Bragg and gets some rural areas east of Fayettevile, along with downtown. The southern part of this district is basically unchanged and incumbent John Szoka (R) should still be fully safe.

Guilford County:

57. Harrison (D-Greensboro) D+29 37W/52B Safe D

This seat is little-changed and still black majority, though incumbent Pricey Harrison (D) is white.

58. Quick (D-Greensboro) D+26 35W/51B Safe D

This seat doesn’t change very much; it moves slightly west to accommodate cleaning up district 60. It is still black-majority.

59. Hardister (R-Greensboro) R+10 Safe R

The three GOP districts in Guilford need to shift around slightly, but don’t change much in partisanship. The seat shifts clockwise a little bit but is similar partisanship-wise.

60. Brockman (D-High Point) D+18 42W/41B Safe D

This seat was the main focus of the court ruling in Guilford, as the prior district was a narrow snake from High Point to Greensboro. This seat keeps the same basic architecture and should still elect a black Dem, but gets a little thicker and cleaner and now follows the county line in the High Point area.

61. Faircloth (R-High Point) R+9 Safe R

This district can no longer wrap around the southwest corner of the county because of the way district 60 cleans up and extends to the county’s southwest tip, so it shifts north, but it doesn’t trade much population and its partisanship is similar.

62. Blust (R-Greensboro) R+10 Safe R

The seat moves slightly east to accommodate adjacent districts but doesn’t change partisanship much and should still be Safe.

So the net shift for this map would most likely be a net GOP gain of a few seats. In order to net the two seats Dems would need to break the supermajority, they would need to win all the Tossup and Lean R seats or flip a Likely R seat to compensate for any they lost, which seems like a very tall order.

Any thoughts?

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  • rdelbov January 29, 2017 at 10:48 pm

    I like this work.

  • aggou January 30, 2017 at 9:59 am

    Solid Work

    With Reference to Boles’ seat, he would have no trouble, ever, unless he became a democrat.

    I’ll make a diary soon on some trends and things I’ve discovered from Moore since the precinct data became available.

  • krazen1211 January 30, 2017 at 3:59 pm

    Nice! I like the idea of fixing the dummymander, so maybe we should redistrict even if the Supreme Court sides with us.

    • Jon January 30, 2017 at 7:41 pm

      I’d rather not mid-decade redistrict if not forced to, but I would definitely include fixing it if ordered. I would also use something like this as the baseline rather than the current map as well for post 2020 redistricting.

      45, M, MO-02

  • WingNightAlone January 30, 2017 at 10:30 pm

    Did some wikipedia-ing of the Lumbee and man, did I not know how controversial they were.

    Start here. Fascinating. Wonder what caused the insane swing to Trump?

    25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

    • Greyhound January 30, 2017 at 11:10 pm

      They are largely poor, rural, non-college-degree US citizens skeptical of christian fundamentalism and foreign interventionism? That kind of checks all the boxes for “Swung hard to Trump” in 2016. I think Arizona was the only place where the Native American Vote didn’t swing to Trump.

      IIRC The Lumbee are one of the better-integrated tribes in the US, which is one of the reasons why Robeson County wasn’t like 75-80% D in the first place. Remember that Robeson County’s non-Native population isn’t even majority White.

      R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

    • shamlet January 31, 2017 at 7:51 am

      I hope there’s some genetics PhD student somewhere who is planning to do a massive ancestry SNPs study on them. Would be a really good question to get answered whether they’re actual Native Americans and of what origin.

      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • GOPTarHeel January 31, 2017 at 10:20 am

        There are somewhat apocryphal stories out there that suggest that post-Reconstruction Democrats promised the community state recognition and funds in return for Democratic votes-the area had trended strongly Republican post-war due to African American votes. One of the coolest moments in the area’s history came when a group of Lumbees drove out the white Dixiecrat-aligned KKK from Robeson county when it tried to halt integration of the area’s three different race-based school systems. Racial tensions in the area are still high. It’s a very interesting area.

        R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

    • aggou January 31, 2017 at 9:13 am

      I’m actually Lumbee, and my grandmother is 100% Lumbee.

      Several reasons why the group as a whole swung to Trump, but I think Greyhound covered several points quite well. We don’t receive federal funds from the government which I personally believe helps keep our group as a whole much less Democratic.

      Technically I live just outside of the “tribal” counties, as we moved to Moore prior to my birth.

      • WingNightAlone January 31, 2017 at 1:02 pm

        Interesting. What’s the Lumbee stance on undertaking a genetic study?

        25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

  • Miles June 7, 2017 at 8:14 pm

    Some 2016 numbers I ran for that HD-47:

    Trump – 12,671 (50.1%)
    Clinton – 12,077 (47.7%)

    Ross – 12,160 (49.3%)
    Burr – 12,068 (48.9%)

    McCrory – 13,217 (52.7%)
    Cooper – 11, 1670 (46.5%)

    Coleman – 12,823 (53.5%)
    Forest – 10,627 (44.3%)

    Stein – 13,771 (58.1%)
    Newton – 9,932 (41.9%)

    Marshall – 14,905 (63.3%)
    LaPaglia – 8,645 (36.7%)

    Not all the statewide races, but gives you some idea. Odd crossover in the bigger contests, but more or less reverted back to normal downballot.

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