Congressional districts ranked by PVI.

All congressional districts ranked by PVI. Note that my PVI formula is 1/2 weight for 2016, 1/3 for 2012, and 1/6 for 2008. Results are posted for 2-party republican votes. Racial data and communities also included

hispanic black asian white 2008 2012 2016 PVI index  community
26.4% 5.2% 1.9% 64.1% TX-13 Thornberry, Mac 77.8% 81.3% 82.5% 83.1% Amarillo/Wichita Falls
37.5% 3.5% 1.0% 56.6% TX-11 Conaway, Michael 76.8% 80.2% 80.3% 81.5% Midland/San Angelo
12.5% 7.2% 1.0% 77.5% GA-09 Collins, Doug 75.5% 79.2% 80.1% 80.9% Gainesville/NE Georgia
6.0% 6.8% 0.5% 84.0% AL-04 Aderholt, Rob 74.2% 75.7% 82.2% 80.5% Gadsden/Muscle Shoals/Cullman
0.9% 1.6% 0.3% 96.1% KY-05 Rogers, Hal 67.8% 76.4% 82.0% 79.6% London/Morehead/Pikeville
3.5% 2.1% 0.6% 91.8% TN-01 Roe, Phil 71.0% 73.9% 79.6% 78.1% Kingsport/Morristown
12.0% 1.0% 1.7% 81.8% UT-01 Bishop, Rob 69.7% 79.1% 76.3% 78.0% Ogden/Park City
9.8% 0.7% 1.9% 83.0% UT-03 Chaffetz, Jason 69.6% 80.1% 75.5% 77.8% Provo/Moab
20.9% 7.9% 2.9% 66.1% TX-08 Brady, Kevin 73.7% 78.0% 75.3% 77.7% The Woodlands/Huntsville
9.2% 4.0% 1.5% 74.6% OK-03 Lucas, Frank 72.9% 73.9% 77.9% 77.5% Stillwater/Yukon/Guymon
13.6% 10.1% 0.8% 72.4% TX-04 Ratcliffe, John 70.7% 74.9% 77.6% 77.4% Sherman/Denison/Texarkana
11.0% 9.6% 0.9% 77.4% GA-14 Graves, Tom 71.9% 74.3% 77.2% 77.2% Rome/Hiram/Dalton
11.1% 1.1% 0.6% 85.0% NE-03 Smith, Adrian 68.4% 71.4% 78.9% 76.5% Grand Island/Scottsbluff
35.6% 5.7% 1.3% 55.3% TX-19 Arrington, Jodey 71.7% 74.6% 75.5% 76.4% Lubbock/Abilene
4.9% 14.4% 1.9% 77.2% AL-06 Palmer, Gary 74.8% 75.1% 73.1% 75.8% Birmingham suburbs
24.2% 9.0% 1.9% 62.5% TX-36 Babin, Brian 69.7% 74.0% 74.1% 75.1% Houston/Baytown
16.8% 18.3% 1.0% 62.6% TX-01 Gohmert, Louie 69.7% 72.3% 74.1% 74.5% Tyler/Lufkin
9.8% 1.0% 0.9% 84.0% WY-AL Cheney, Liz 66.6% 71.2% 75.7% 74.5% Wyoming ALL
9.1% 13.4% 2.5% 71.9% LA-01 Scalise, Steve 74.2% 72.5% 72.0% 74.4% New Orleans/Hammond/Houma
15.5% 2.9% 1.4% 77.2% KS-01 Marshall, Roger 68.4% 71.8% 74.0% 74.2% Salina/Hutchinson/Garden City
3.7% 4.4% 1.0% 89.0% TN-06 Black, Diane 66.0% 70.1% 75.4% 73.9% Cookeville/Lebanon/Hendersonville
1.8% 4.9% 0.7% 90.4% MO-08 Smith, Jason 61.0% 67.3% 78.2% 73.5% Cape Girardeau/Rolla/West Plains
5.0% 3.4% 0.6% 64.6% OK-02 Mullin, Markwayne 65.7% 67.8% 76.2% 73.5% Muskogee/Miami/Durant
4.8% 2.1% 1.2% 88.7% MO-07 Long, Billy 64.1% 69.1% 74.0% 72.5% Springfield/Joplin
2.9% 6.9% 0.5% 87.5% KY-01 Comer, James 62.5% 67.4% 75.2% 72.3% Paducah/Hopkinsville
3.6% 23.7% 1.1% 69.2% MS-04 Palazzo, Steven 68.6% 68.4% 71.1% 71.6% Gulfport/Hattiesburg
6.2% 13.4% 2.6% 73.6% FL-01 Gaetz, Matt 67.6% 69.5% 70.5% 71.5% Pensacola/Crestview
0.9% 3.9% 0.4% 93.2% WV-03 Jenkins, Evan 56.8% 66.5% 75.7% 71.3% Huntington/Beckley
18.0% 1.7% 1.4% 75.3% AZ-04 Gosar, Paul 65.1% 68.4% 71.1% 71.0% Kingman/Prescott/Yuma/Apache Junction
10.4% 0.3% 1.1% 85.1% ID-01 Labrador, Raul 64.0% 66.8% 71.5% 70.5% Nampa/Meridian/Coeur d’Alene
5.8% 8.1% 1.5% 81.1% TN-04 DesJarlais, Scott 63.6% 66.4% 71.5% 70.3% Murfreesboro/Cleveland
8.4% 6.8% 2.1% 71.2% OK-04 Cole, Tom 66.1% 67.1% 69.9% 70.2% Norman/Lawton
2.4% 4.3% 0.6% 91.3% IL-15 Shimkus, John 56.4% 65.2% 74.3% 70.1% Danville/Effingham/Fairfield
3.6% 24.9% 1.5% 68.0% LA-03 65.3% 67.2% 69.7% 70.0% Lafayette/Lake Charles
4.9% 10.3% 1.7% 80.8% TN-07 Blackburn, Marsha 63.2% 66.6% 70.5% 69.8% Franklin/Clarksville
3.8% 6.5% 1.6% 86.4% TN-02 Duncan, John 65.0% 68.5% 68.7% 69.8% Knoxville
4.3% 24.3% 2.2% 67.5% LA-06 Graves, Garret 68.6% 67.4% 67.6% 69.5% Baton Rouge
4.3% 18.1% 0.7% 74.7% SC-03 Duncan, Jeff 64.4% 65.5% 69.8% 69.3% Anderson/Greenwood
3.3% 5.1% 1.2% 87.5% KY-02 Guthrie, Brett 62.3% 64.3% 71.0% 69.1% Bowling Green/Owensboro
3.3% 19.4% 1.8% 73.8% TN-08 Kustoff, David 64.7% 66.8% 68.4% 69.1% Memphis/Jackson
2.0% 5.7% 1.1% 89.7% VA-09 Griffith, Morgan 59.7% 64.3% 71.6% 69.0% Blacksburg/Martinsburg/Abingdon
2.1% 2.8% 0.5% 93.0% PA-09 Schuster, Bill 58.6% 63.6% 72.0% 68.8% Altoona/Uniontown/Chambersburg
1.3% 2.6% 0.9% 93.7% WV-01 McKinley, David 57.7% 63.7% 72.0% 68.7% Morgantown/Wheeling/Parkersburg
13.8% 3.0% 2.6% 76.1% AR-03 Womack, Steve 65.3% 67.5% 67.0% 68.7% Fayetteville/Fort Smith
5.8% 24.7% 2.0% 64.7% FL-02 Dunn, Neal 64.3% 65.5% 68.4% 68.6% Tallahassee/Panama City
16.1% 1.1% 2.4% 76.0% UT-02 Stewart, Chris 60.4% 70.0% 66.3% 68.3% Salt Lake City/St. George
3.0% 3.1% 0.9% 90.7% KY-04 Massie, Thomas 62.4% 64.6% 69.0% 68.2% Covington/Ashland
5.2% 24.2% 1.9% 66.1% GA-03 Ferguson, Drew 65.8% 66.6% 66.2% 68.1% Columbus/Newnan/Griffin
22.6% 8.8% 3.5% 62.5% TX-12 Granger, Kay 64.6% 67.8% 65.8% 68.1% Fort Worth/Weatherford
3.5% 11.0% 1.2% 82.4% TN-03 Fleischmann, Chuck 62.2% 64.3% 68.4% 67.8% Chattanooga
5.0% 17.1% 1.4% 73.1% AL-05 Brooks, Mo 63.3% 64.7% 67.3% 67.6% Huntsville/Florence
2.2% 3.6% 0.7% 90.9% MO-03 Luetkemeyer, Blaine 56.6% 63.2% 70.5% 67.6% Jefferson City/St. Peters
17.8% 6.3% 5.6% 67.0% TX-26 Burgess, Michael 64.6% 68.8% 63.9% 67.5% Denton/Lewisville/Keller
2.2% 2.9% 1.3% 92.1% IN-06 Messer, Luke 55.8% 61.8% 71.2% 67.3% Muncie/Columbus/Greenfield
15.9% 1.5% 2.8% 76.1% UT-04 Love, Mia 57.8% 69.0% 65.5% 67.2% West Jordan/Nephi
8.2% 13.3% 4.6% 71.2% FL-04 Rutherford, John 64.8% 66.8% 64.3% 67.1% Jacksonville suburbs
10.7% 8.4% 2.3% 65.6% OK-01 Bridenstine, Jim 64.2% 65.8% 65.2% 67.1% Tulsa
3.3% 6.1% 1.8% 86.5% OH-08 Davidson, Warren 61.3% 63.0% 68.0% 67.0% Hamilton/Springfield
3.2% 30.6% 1.1% 63.3% AL-02 Roby, Martha 64.8% 63.3% 66.4% 66.9% Montgomery/Dothan
10.8% 16.7% 3.4% 67.2% GA-11 Loudermilk, Barry 64.9% 68.0% 63.1% 66.8% Marietta/Canton
3.0% 25.9% 1.4% 67.7% AL-03 Rogers, Mike D. 63.1% 62.9% 67.0% 66.8% Auburn/Oxford
3.5% 4.7% 1.4% 86.9% MO-04 Hartzler, Vicki 57.4% 62.7% 69.0% 66.8% Columbia/Lebanon/Belton
3.1% 18.2% 0.3% 76.5% AR-01 Crawford, Rick 59.7% 62.7% 68.3% 66.8% Jonesboro/Mountain Home
5.5% 19.9% 0.6% 71.9% AR-04 Westerman, Bruce 61.6% 63.3% 67.2% 66.8% Hot Springs/Pine Bluff/El Dorado
5.8% 5.8% 2.2% 83.6% IN-03 Banks, Jim 56.6% 63.6% 68.4% 66.7% Fort Wayne/Warsaw
3.0% 27.2% 0.6% 67.6% MS-01 Kelly, Trent 63.0% 62.6% 66.9% 66.6% Tupelo/Memphis suburbs
13.8% 1.0% 1.7% 80.3% ID-02 Simpson, Mike 62.0% 65.9% 64.7% 66.5% Boise/Twin Falls/Idaho Falls
27.6% 15.6% 2.5% 52.2% TX-05 Hensarling, Jeb 62.6% 65.2% 64.6% 66.3% Dallas/Mesquite/Palestine
1.7% 4.4% 0.6% 90.9% WV-02 Mooney, Alex 55.5% 61.2% 69.1% 66.0% Charleston/Elkins/Martinsburg
4.0% 3.5% 0.8% 90.1% PA-10 Marino, Tom 57.2% 61.0% 68.6% 66.0% Williamsport
2.8% 2.0% 1.2% 86.8% ND-AL Cramer, Kevin 54.4% 60.1% 69.8% 65.9% North Dakota ALL
0.9% 2.4% 0.5% 94.7% OH-06 Johnson, Bill 54.3% 56.4% 72.2% 65.8% Steubenville/Marrieta
5.9% 3.6% 2.7% 85.7% IN-04 Rokita, Todd 54.9% 62.3% 68.0% 65.7% Lafayette/Kokomo
2.0% 35.6% 0.7% 60.1% LA-05 Abraham, Ralph 62.8% 61.8% 65.1% 65.4% Monroe/Alexandria
3.1% 27.8% 1.4% 65.3% AL-01 Byrne, Bradley 61.3% 62.3% 65.2% 65.4% Mobile
5.9% 30.6% 1.2% 60.5% GA-08 Scott, Austin 62.0% 62.2% 64.8% 65.3% Warner Robins/Valdosta
11.8% 6.9% 3.3% 74.3% KS-04 Pompeo, Mike 59.7% 63.1% 64.6% 65.1% Wichita
8.3% 19.3% 2.2% 68.3% SC-04 Gowdy, Trey 61.6% 63.2% 63.6% 64.9% Greenville/Spartenburg
3.7% 4.0% 1.2% 88.5% MO-06 Graves, Sam 56.2% 61.3% 66.6% 64.9% St. Joseph/Kirksville
3.6% 11.9% 2.4% 80.2% MD-01 Harris, Andy 60.8% 61.5% 64.9% 64.9% Eastern Maryland/Bel Air
4.9% 26.5% 2.1% 64.9% GA-10 Hice, Jodi 60.9% 63.3% 63.1% 64.6% Athens/Milledgeville
18.6% 2.6% 4.5% 70.8% AZ-05 Biggs, Andy 63.3% 64.8% 61.2% 64.6% Mesa/Gilbert/Chandler
9.3% 8.2% 1.2% 78.8% FL-11 Nugent, Rich 56.8% 59.8% 66.6% 64.5% Spring Hill/The Villages
5.9% 3.3% 1.3% 86.3% NC-11 Meadows, Mark 57.9% 60.4% 65.3% 64.3% Western Appalachians
38.0% 7.0% 4.7% 46.5% CA-23 McCarthy, Kevin 62.9% 63.0% 61.7% 64.1% Bakersfield/Porterville/Lancaster
1.9% 4.1% 1.0% 91.1% IN-08 Bucshon, Larry 51.3% 59.6% 67.6% 64.1% Evansville/Terre Haute
3.1% 5.1% 0.9% 88.0% OH-04 Jordan, Jim 55.5% 57.1% 67.7% 64.0% Lima/Fremont/Marysville
2.7% 3.4% 2.6% 89.3% IL-18 LaHood, Darin 55.2% 61.9% 64.5% 63.9% Peoria/Bloomington/Quincy
15.4% 5.1% 2.6% 72.0% CO-05 Lamborn, Doug 59.7% 60.7% 63.3% 63.6% Colorado Springs
3.4% 1.7% 1.3% 83.2% SD-AL Noem, Kristi 54.3% 59.2% 66.0% 63.6% South Dakota ALL
2.0% 35.2% 1.1% 60.1% MS-03 Harper, Gregg 61.3% 60.5% 62.5% 63.5% Jackson suburbs/Meridian
19.1% 5.0% 3.4% 69.4% AZ-08 Franks, Trent 61.2% 62.6% 61.1% 63.4% Peoria/Surprise/Goodyear/Anthem
38.1% 1.0% 1.5% 55.0% WA-04 Newhouse, Dan 60.0% 61.2% 62.3% 63.4% Kennewick/Yakima
51.5% 5.2% 1.5% 40.3% TX-27 Farenthold, Blake 59.6% 61.3% 62.2% 63.3% Corpus Christi/Victoria
4.8% 10.8% 1.9% 80.5% VA-06 Goodlatte, Bob 58.3% 60.1% 63.1% 63.1% Roanoke/Lynchburg/Harrisonburg
4.0% 33.5% 0.8% 58.7% LA-04 59.6% 59.8% 62.3% 62.9% Shreveport
14.7% 8.9% 13.7% 59.6% TX-03 Johnson, Sam 62.2% 65.3% 57.4% 62.7% Plano/Frisco/McKinney
21.7% 1.5% 1.9% 72.4% CO-04 Buck, Ken 57.4% 59.9% 62.6% 62.6% Greeley/Longmont/Parker/E. Colorado
5.9% 11.8% 1.4% 78.8% NC-10 McHenry, Patrick 58.0% 59.1% 62.8% 62.6% Gastonia/Asheville
19.2% 8.3% 1.6% 68.9% FL-17 Rooney, Tom 55.5% 58.2% 64.0% 62.5% Port Charlotte
5.8% 1.8% 2.7% 88.0% WI-05 Sensenbrenner, Jim 57.8% 61.9% 60.6% 62.4% Waukesha/Watertown
19.1% 7.8% 1.4% 70.6% FL-19 Rooney, Francis 57.3% 61.0% 61.4% 62.4% Cape Coral/Naples
3.2% 2.4% 1.7% 90.7% MI-10 Mitchell, Paul 51.0% 55.9% 66.9% 62.4% St. Clair/Shelby/Thumb area
2.0% 2.3% 1.6% 92.4% PA-05 Thompson, Glenn 52.2% 57.9% 65.0% 62.3% State College/DeBois
2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 90.1% MN-06 Emmer, Tom 55.9% 57.7% 64.0% 62.3% St. Cloud/Elk River/Blaine/Waconia
3.2% 2.8% 2.2% 89.8% IN-09 Hollingsworth, Trey 53.3% 58.4% 64.1% 62.2% Louisville suburbs/Bloomington
7.9% 18.5% 0.8% 69.8% NC-03 Jones, Walter 57.3% 59.0% 62.3% 62.2% Jacksonville/Kill Devil Hills
4.3% 1.3% 0.7% 89.8% MN-07 Peterson, Collin 51.7% 55.0% 66.6% 62.1% Moorhead/Bemidji/Marshall
24.6% 13.0% 4.5% 55.8% TX-17 Flores, Bill 58.6% 61.6% 59.2% 61.7% Waco/College Station
2.3% 3.8% 0.6% 90.9% OH-07 Gibbs, Bob 52.0% 54.9% 65.6% 61.6% Canton Suburbs/Amish country
23.8% 19.7% 3.1% 51.6% TX-14 Weber, Randy 57.6% 60.0% 60.2% 61.5% Galveston/Beaumont
5.4% 23.0% 1.9% 67.0% SC-02 Wilson, Joe 60.2% 60.0% 59.3% 61.5% Columbia/Aiken
31.2% 2.5% 5.7% 55.6% CA-50 Hunter, Duncan 59.8% 61.6% 58.0% 61.3% Santee/Escondido/Temecula
2.1% 4.5% 1.0% 90.4% PA-03 Kelly, Mike 53.0% 56.4% 63.5% 61.2% Erie/Butler/New Castle
3.0% 2.8% 0.9% 91.3% NY-27 Collins, Chris 55.1% 56.3% 62.9% 61.2% Buffalo suburbs
8.3% 2.8% 2.6% 83.2% NE-01 Fortenberry, Jeff 55.1% 58.2% 61.4% 61.1% Lincoln/Norfolk
30.7% 9.3% 6.8% 50.7% TX-02 Poe, Ted 62.6% 63.9% 54.9% 61.0% Houston
13.6% 0.4% 1.0% 80.1% OR-02 Walden, Greg 55.4% 58.4% 60.8% 60.9% Bend/Medford/Grants Pass
13.4% 1.4% 2.5% 77.1% CA-01 LaMalfa, Doug 55.8% 58.4% 60.6% 60.9% Redding/Chico/Grass Valley
1.2% 3.2% 1.6% 92.0% PA-12 Rothfus, Keith 54.8% 58.6% 60.8% 60.9% N. Allegheny County/Johnstown
6.9% 7.5% 2.1% 81.2% PA-04 Perry, Scott 54.4% 57.9% 61.2% 60.8% York/Harrisburg
1.4% 2.4% 1.9% 92.9% PA-18 Murphy, Tim 55.8% 58.5% 60.1% 60.7% S. Allegheny County/Washington/Greensburg
4.8% 2.8% 1.3% 89.4% OH-05 Latta, Bob 53.2% 55.0% 63.3% 60.7% Toledo Suburbs/Findlay
18.3% 6.9% 2.9% 68.6% TX-25 Williams, Roger 56.6% 61.3% 57.8% 60.6% Austin/Cleburne
10.0% 9.9% 2.1% 75.6% FL-08 Posey, Bill 55.6% 57.3% 60.8% 60.6% Melbourne/Titusville
6.5% 1.2% 1.9% 88.5% IA-04 King, Steve 50.9% 54.1% 64.5% 60.6% Sioux City/Fort Dodge/Mason City
6.7% 3.2% 5.9% 61.8% AK-AL Young, Don 61.0% 57.3% 58.4% 60.3% Alaska ALL
9.1% 6.7% 1.1% 80.5% IN-02 Walorski, Jackie 49.8% 57.1% 62.2% 60.3% South Bend/Elkhart
15.3% 13.3% 3.1% 58.9% OK-05 Russell, Steve 59.2% 59.2% 57.2% 60.0% Oklahoma City/Edmond/Shawnee
5.6% 4.9% 1.5% 86.5% PA-11 Barletta, Lou 52.3% 54.8% 62.4% 60.0% Harrisburg suburbs/Hazelton
3.4% 0.6% 0.8% 86.7% MT-AL Zinke, Ryan 51.1% 57.1% 61.1% 59.9% Montana ALL
24.5% 13.3% 17.7% 42.7% TX-22 Olson, Pete 60.6% 62.9% 54.1% 59.9% Sugarland/Cinco Ranch
23.8% 10.8% 4.6% 57.7% TX-31 Carter, John 56.6% 60.9% 56.7% 59.9% Round Rock/Killeen/Temple
12.8% 1.2% 5.0% 76.8% CA-04 McClintock, Tom 55.7% 59.4% 57.9% 59.9% Roseville/S. Lake Tahoe/Mariposa
6.3% 4.4% 1.4% 83.0% KS-02 Jenkins, Lynn 53.8% 57.0% 59.9% 59.7% Topeka/Lawrence
3.1% 1.8% 0.9% 91.8% MI-04 Moolenaar, John 49.5% 54.0% 63.2% 59.7% Midland/Cadiallac/Mount Pleasant
3.8% 26.8% 1.0% 65.5% SC-05 Mulvaney, Mick 55.7% 55.8% 59.6% 59.5% Rock Hill/Sumter
8.8% 12.8% 1.4% 75.5% NC-05 Foxx, Virginia 54.9% 57.2% 59.0% 59.5% Winston-Salem
6.5% 18.2% 2.0% 70.7% SC-01 Sanford, Mark 56.8% 59.2% 57.0% 59.5% Charleston
30.1% 3.1% 3.1% 61.8% TX-21 Smith, Lamar 57.1% 61.2% 55.3% 59.4% San Antonio/Austin/Fredericksburg
9.1% 16.9% 0.8% 69.5% NC-07 Rouzer, David 55.0% 56.4% 59.1% 59.4% Wilmington/Clayton
15.9% 2.2% 5.0% 73.4% AZ-06 Schweikert, David 58.3% 60.5% 55.3% 59.4% Scottsdale/N. Phoenix
9.1% 12.4% 2.9% 72.6% FL-03 Yoho, Ted 55.3% 57.5% 58.3% 59.3% Gainesville/Ocala
39.4% 7.5% 3.4% 45.5% CA-08 Cook, Paul 56.7% 57.1% 58.0% 59.3% Victorville/Barstow/Twenty-Nine Palms
22.6% 19.2% 4.2% 51.4% TX-06 Barton, Joe 57.6% 58.7% 56.4% 59.2% Arlington/Corsicana
3.9% 29.0% 0.9% 64.0% SC-07 Rice, Tom 54.2% 55.1% 59.7% 59.1% Myrtle Beach/Florence
4.6% 8.8% 1.8% 82.5% KY-06 Barr, Andy 54.5% 56.9% 58.1% 59.0% Lexington/Frankfurt
5.7% 35.3% 1.7% 55.4% GA-12 Allen, Rick 55.9% 56.0% 58.3% 58.9% Augusta/Statesboro
18.3% 18.3% 13.0% 47.8% GA-07 Woodall, Rob 60.6% 61.1% 53.3% 58.9% Lawrenceville/S. Forsyth County
9.4% 5.8% 2.1% 79.4% MI-02 Huizenga, Bill 51.2% 56.5% 59.4% 58.9% Holland/Muskegon
6.2% 29.3% 2.1% 59.5% GA-01 Carter, Buddy 55.3% 56.5% 58.0% 58.9% Savannah/Brunswick
27.8% 9.6% 5.1% 55.5% TX-10 McCaul, Michael 56.6% 60.4% 54.8% 58.8% Cypress/Katy/Austin
1.7% 1.6% 0.6% 91.2% MI-01 Bergman, Jack 49.3% 54.2% 61.3% 58.7% N. Michigan/Upper Peninsula/Traverse City
2.0% 8.5% 1.3% 86.0% OH-02 Wenstrup, Brad 55.0% 55.6% 58.4% 58.7% Cincinnati Suburbs
24.2% 10.7% 12.2% 49.7% TX-24 Marchant, Kenny 58.6% 61.4% 53.3% 58.7% DFW Airport
7.2% 15.5% 2.5% 72.9% NC-06 Walker, Mark 54.3% 56.4% 57.8% 58.6% Greensboro/Burlington
37.5% 6.0% 7.8% 44.7% CA-42 Calvert, Ken 55.7% 57.7% 56.3% 58.5% Murrieta/Eastvale/Menifee
3.8% 7.4% 3.5% 83.1% IN-05 Brooks, Susan 53.0% 58.6% 56.3% 58.3% Hamilton County/Anderson
13.0% 5.0% 2.7% 77.0% FL-12 Bilirakis, Gus 51.9% 53.8% 59.7% 58.3% Pasco County/St. Petersburg suburbs
9.3% 19.1% 1.3% 61.5% NC-08 Hudson, Richard 54.3% 55.2% 57.7% 58.1% Kannapolis/Pinehurst
9.3% 16.4% 3.6% 66.6% VA-01 Wittman, Rob 55.8% 56.2% 56.5% 58.1% Fredericksburg/Williamsburg
46.7% 3.2% 7.9% 39.4% CA-22 Nunes, Devin 56.7% 57.6% 55.0% 58.0% Fresno/Visalia
9.8% 6.3% 3.9% 78.2% NJ-04 Smith, Chris 54.2% 54.8% 57.6% 57.9% Lakewood/Neptue/Trenton suburbs
2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 92.1% OH-16 Renacci, Jim 52.1% 54.2% 58.7% 57.9% Cleveland & Akron suburbs/Wooster
12.4% 13.2% 10.4% 61.3% GA-06 Price, Tom 59.5% 61.9% 50.8% 57.8% Alpharetta/Sandy Springs
18.1% 13.6% 2.9% 62.2% FL-15 Ross, Dennis 52.7% 52.8% 59.0% 57.7% Lakeland/Tampa Suburbs
3.0% 3.2% 4.7% 87.2% MO-02 Wagner, Ann 53.1% 58.0% 55.4% 57.7% St. Louis County
8.5% 12.3% 4.5% 71.6% NC-09 Pittenger, Robert 54.4% 55.8% 56.2% 57.6% Fayetteville/Monroe
8.4% 3.9% 1.4% 84.5% IL-16 Kinzinger, Adam 49.1% 53.9% 59.2% 57.6% Rockford/Ottawa/Pontiac
4.4% 1.6% 2.4% 90.0% WI-06 Grothman, Glenn 49.9% 53.7% 58.9% 57.5% Sheboygan/Oshkosh
6.2% 1.5% 2.3% 84.4% WA-05 McMorris Rodgers, Cathy 52.5% 55.0% 57.1% 57.5% Spokane
5.1% 22.2% 1.4% 69.0% AR-02 Hill, French 54.8% 56.0% 55.7% 57.5% Little Rock/Conway
2.0% 4.0% 2.4% 89.2% OH-15 Stivers, Steve 53.1% 52.9% 58.1% 57.3% Columbus Suburbs/Lancaster
2.3% 3.9% 3.4% 87.0% OH-12 Tiberi, Patrick 54.5% 55.3% 55.9% 57.3% Columbus Suburbs/Mansfield
10.9% 16.5% 4.0% 65.0% NC-02 Holding, George 54.8% 56.5% 54.9% 57.2% Raleigh suburbs
7.8% 9.1% 1.9% 79.0% FL-06 DeSantis, Ron 49.3% 52.8% 58.8% 57.0% Dayton Beach/Palm Coast/Deltona
2.1% 0.6% 1.6% 92.1% WI-07 Duffy, Sean 46.0% 51.6% 60.7% 57.0% Wausau/Superior/Rhinelander
31.4% 12.7% 10.7% 43.2% TX-07 Culberson, John 59.6% 60.8% 49.3% 56.7% Houston
4.4% 4.0% 0.9% 88.3% MI-07 Walberg, Tim 48.3% 51.6% 59.0% 56.6% Jackson/Monroe
21.8% 1.5% 3.7% 67.6% NV-02 Amodei, Mark 49.4% 54.1% 56.7% 56.5% Reno/Elko
3.6% 20.0% 1.6% 72.6% VA-05 Garrett, Tom 52.7% 53.8% 55.8% 56.4% Charlottesville
12.0% 6.6% 1.7% 78.1% FL-16 Buchanan, Vern 51.8% 54.4% 55.6% 56.4% Sarasota/Bradenton
4.9% 1.2% 2.2% 87.7% WI-08 Gallagher, Mike 45.6% 51.9% 59.3% 56.4% Green Bay/Appleton
24.8% 0.8% 0.7% 70.6% CO-03 Tipton, Scott 50.8% 53.1% 56.5% 56.2% Grand Junction/Pueblo
5.9% 14.6% 4.9% 71.6% VA-07 Brat, Dave 54.7% 55.6% 53.4% 56.2% Henrico/Culpeper/Richmond
3.5% 3.6% 2.7% 88.1% NY-22 Tenney, Claudia 50.0% 50.2% 58.2% 56.0% Utica/Binghamton
53.4% 1.7% 0.8% 37.7% NM-02 Pearce, Steve 50.9% 53.5% 55.7% 56.0% Las Cruces/Roswell
3.7% 2.7% 2.3% 88.6% NY-23 Reed, Tom 49.5% 50.6% 57.9% 55.9% Ithaca/Elmira/Jamestown
8.5% 17.5% 2.3% 69.2% NC-13 Budd, Ted 51.7% 53.4% 54.8% 55.6% High Point/Statesville
7.0% 8.6% 1.8% 79.9% MI-03 Amash, Justin 49.4% 53.7% 55.0% 55.5% Grand Rapids/Battle Creek
2.8% 4.0% 2.0% 89.3% OH-14 Joyce, David 50.2% 51.7% 56.0% 55.4% Ashtabula/Cleveland & Akron suburbs
70.8% 5.8% 2.2% 20.5% FL-25 Diaz-Balart, Mario 59.2% 54.8% 50.8% 55.4% Hialeah/Miami Suburbs
6.2% 2.9% 2.6% 86.7% MN-01 Walz, Tim 47.9% 49.3% 58.1% 55.3% Rochester/Mankato
9.5% 5.5% 1.8% 81.1% WI-01 Ryan, Paul 48.6% 52.1% 55.4% 55.0% Kenosha/Janesville/Racine
2.9% 22.1% 3.0% 69.8% OH-01 Chabot, Steve 52.3% 53.1% 53.4% 55.0% Cincinnati
25.8% 12.0% 7.6% 51.7% TX-32 Sessions, Pete 55.6% 57.9% 49.0% 54.9% N. Dallas County
12.8% 5.0% 3.7% 76.6% NY-01 Zeldin, Lee 48.5% 49.7% 56.4% 54.7% Eastern Long Island
17.7% 6.4% 2.0% 72.3% PA-16 Smucker, Lloyd 49.4% 53.1% 53.8% 54.6% Lancaster/Reading/Coatesville
14.9% 12.6% 1.8% 68.8% FL-18 Mast, Brian 48.3% 51.9% 54.8% 54.6% Port St. Lucie
3.4% 16.6% 1.1% 76.5% IL-12 Bost, Mike 44.4% 49.2% 57.8% 54.5% E. St. Louis/Carbondale
1.6% 0.9% 0.6% 92.0% MN-08 Nolan, Rick 45.6% 47.2% 58.4% 54.4% Duluth
11.9% 2.9% 4.7% 78.8% IL-14 Hultgren, Randy 48.6% 55.1% 52.1% 54.3% McHenry/Batavia/Oswego
3.4% 2.9% 1.0% 89.9% NY-21 Stefanik, Elise 47.5% 46.9% 57.4% 54.1% Watertown/Potsdam/Glens Falls
2.6% 17.0% 2.2% 75.3% OH-10 Turner, Michael 50.0% 51.0% 53.8% 54.1% Dayton
17.1% 6.4% 13.0% 61.4% NY-11 Donovan, Dan 51.5% 47.8% 55.0% 53.9% Staten Island
21.4% 1.1% 18.3% 55.3% CA-48 Rohrabacher, Dana 52.6% 56.0% 49.1% 53.8% Huntington Beach/Newport Beach/Laguna Beach
9.0% 1.3% 2.9% 80.9% WA-03 Herrera Beutler, Jaime 48.1% 50.9% 54.0% 53.8% Vancouver/Centralia
3.5% 5.3% 9.1% 79.9% MI-11 Trott, Dave 49.0% 52.7% 52.3% 53.7% Livonia/Troy/Auburn Hills
15.3% 4.0% 2.3% 76.3% PA-15 Dent, Charlie 47.2% 51.5% 53.7% 53.7% Allentown/Bethlehem/Hershey
4.8% 5.8% 4.2% 82.3% MI-08 Bishop, Mike 47.2% 51.6% 53.5% 53.6% Lansing/N. Oakland County
5.9% 8.3% 1.6% 81.1% MI-06 Upton, Fred 46.0% 50.7% 54.5% 53.6% Kalamazoo/Benton Harbor
11.0% 9.6% 2.9% 73.4% NE-02 Bacon, Don 49.5% 53.5% 51.2% 53.5% Omaha
10.6% 3.5% 9.9% 74.2% NJ-11 Frelinghuysen, Rodney 52.6% 52.9% 50.5% 53.5% Morristown/Pompton Lakes/Hopatcong
7.5% 20.9% 4.9% 62.6% VA-02 Taylor, Scott 51.6% 51.2% 51.8% 53.4% Newport News/Virginia Beach
11.6% 8.4% 4.2% 72.6% KS-03 Yoder, Kevin 50.6% 54.8% 49.3% 53.2% Kansas City/Overland Park
22.0% 9.5% 2.5% 64.1% NY-02 King, Peter 48.5% 47.8% 54.7% 53.2% Islip/Lindenhurst
12.2% 4.9% 9.8% 71.9% NJ-07 Lance, Leonard 52.2% 53.1% 49.4% 53.0% Phillipsburg/Somerville/Westfield
20.0% 1.8% 21.5% 52.4% CA-45 Walters, Mimi 52.6% 56.0% 47.1% 52.8% Irvine/Mission Viejo
21.8% 2.3% 1.4% 49.7% AZ-01 O’Halleran, Tom 51.6% 51.3% 50.6% 52.8% Flagstaff/Casa Grande/Oro Valley
13.6% 4.9% 10.9% 69.2% NJ-05 Gottheimer, Josh 51.0% 51.6% 50.6% 52.8% Sussex/Washington/Franklin Lakes/Paramus
3.4% 11.5% 3.5% 78.7% IL-13 Davis, Rodney 44.4% 50.2% 52.9% 52.4% Champaign/Decatur/Springfield
7.7% 9.8% 3.7% 75.5% NJ-03 MacArthur, Tom 48.3% 47.7% 53.2% 52.4% Willingboro/Toms River
1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 94.3% ME-02 Poliquin, Bruce 43.9% 45.4% 55.7% 52.1% Bangor/Lewiston/Caribou
6.9% 4.1% 1.7% 85.2% NY-19 Faso, John 45.9% 46.8% 53.9% 52.0% Kingston
5.6% 4.3% 4.4% 82.6% MN-02 Lewis, Jason 48.5% 49.9% 50.7% 51.9% Apple Valley/Shakopee
6.6% 3.9% 2.9% 84.5% IA-03 Young, David 46.9% 47.9% 51.9% 51.5% Des Moines
6.0% 4.2% 4.1% 83.8% PA-06 Costello, Ryan 46.5% 51.3% 49.7% 51.5% West Chester/Downington/Pottstown/Lebanon
3.2% 1.2% 2.5% 91.0% NH-01 Shea-Porter, Carol 46.8% 49.2% 50.8% 51.4% Manchester/Portsmouth/Laconia
67.7% 3.0% 1.2% 26.6% TX-23 Hurd, Will 49.5% 51.3% 48.2% 51.3% San Antonio suburbs/Del Rio/Fort Stockton
8.1% 5.4% 2.0% 82.6% PA-17 Cartwright, Matt 42.4% 43.9% 55.5% 51.3% Scranton/Pottsville/Easton
5.0% 3.8% 5.2% 84.3% PA-08 Fitzpatrick, Brian 46.2% 50.1% 50.1% 51.3% Buck County
17.0% 6.1% 12.9% 58.1% NV-03 Rosen, Jacky 45.5% 49.6% 50.5% 51.2% Henderson/Summerlin/Enterprise
16.5% 9.0% 3.0% 69.2% NY-18 Maloney, Sean 47.5% 47.8% 51.0% 51.2% Newburgh/Poughkeepsie
9.5% 2.6% 9.5% 76.7% IL-06 Roskam, Peter 48.0% 54.2% 46.3% 51.0% Cary/Lake Zurich/Wheaton
15.9% 12.2% 4.0% 65.7% NJ-02 LoBiondo, Frank 46.1% 45.9% 52.4% 51.0% Atlantic City/Vineland
24.6% 2.2% 6.5% 62.6% CA-49 Issa, Darrell 49.5% 53.4% 46.0% 50.9% San Clemente/Oceanside/Encinitas
27.6% 3.3% 3.0% 61.9% AZ-02 McSally, Martha 50.5% 50.8% 47.4% 50.9% Sierra Vista/Tucson
3.3% 5.5% 4.6% 85.0% PA-07 Meehan, Pat 48.3% 51.0% 47.8% 50.7% Delaware County/Philadelphia Suburbs
34.2% 2.4% 29.1% 31.4% CA-39 Royce, Ed 51.0% 51.9% 45.4% 50.3% Yorba Linda/Chino Hills/Buena Park
10.3% 3.1% 8.0% 73.1% WA-08 Reichert, David 47.6% 49.2% 48.4% 50.3% Auburn/Issaquah/Wenatchee
37.5% 8.0% 8.5% 42.1% CA-25 Knight, Steve 49.5% 51.0% 46.4% 50.3% Santa Clarita/Palmdale/Simi Valley
42.3% 2.4% 7.1% 43.8% CA-10 Denham, Jeff 48.5% 48.2% 48.4% 50.1% Modesto
21.2% 9.5% 3.6% 62.6% FL-07 Murphy, Stephanie 48.4% 50.0% 46.2% 49.7% Orlando/Winter Park/Sanford
7.2% 0.8% 2.3% 84.9% OR-04 DeFazio, Peter 44.1% 46.5% 49.9% 49.6% Eugene/Corvallis/Roseburg
12.6% 6.6% 13.5% 63.2% VA-10 Comstock, Barbara 50.0% 50.8% 44.7% 49.4% Leesburg/Winchester
2.4% 1.0% 2.3% 92.4% WI-03 Kind, Ron 39.7% 44.4% 52.4% 49.4% Eau Claire/La Crosse/Stevens Point
5.2% 3.7% 2.3% 86.4% IA-02 Loebsack, David 42.1% 43.4% 52.2% 49.4% Iowa City/Davenport/Newton
16.2% 1.0% 2.9% 75.5% OR-05 Schrader, Kurt 45.5% 48.3% 47.7% 49.3% Salem/Oregon City/Newport
12.3% 2.6% 15.0% 68.1% NY-03 Suozzi, Tom 46.0% 48.7% 46.9% 49.2% Glencove/Huntington
3.7% 3.4% 1.6% 89.4% IA-01 Blum, Rod 40.8% 43.1% 51.9% 48.9% Cedar Rapids/Dubuque/Waterloo
4.5% 6.6% 7.7% 78.3% MN-03 Paulsen, Erik 48.2% 49.6% 44.9% 48.8% Bloomington/Maple Grove
49.1% 3.9% 3.5% 40.7% CA-36 Ruiz, Raul 48.5% 48.4% 45.4% 48.7% Palm Springs/Hemet
3.2% 1.1% 2.6% 91.3% NH-02 Kuster, Annie 43.5% 45.1% 48.7% 48.5% Nashua/Concord/Berlin
9.6% 5.8% 3.3% 78.2% FL-13 Crist, Charlie 43.7% 44.6% 48.3% 48.1% St. Petersburg
17.6% 6.0% 3.6% 69.7% CT-05 Esty, Elizabeth 42.9% 45.5% 47.9% 48.0% Waterbury/Danbury/Meriden/Torrington
20.0% 8.9% 5.2% 62.1% CO-06 Coffman, Mike 45.6% 47.4% 45.1% 47.8% Aurora/Highland Ranch/Brighton
16.5% 6.9% 14.8% 56.0% CA-07 Bera, Ami 47.4% 48.0% 43.9% 47.7% Folsom/Citrus Heights/Elk Grove
29.2% 14.1% 5.7% 45.8% NV-04 Kihuen, Ruben 42.3% 44.5% 47.4% 47.4% N. Las Vegas/Pahrump/Ely
9.2% 11.0% 1.1% 75.9% IL-17 Bustos, Cheri 39.1% 41.3% 50.4% 47.3% Rockford/Moline/Peoria
7.9% 4.0% 3.0% 82.0% CT-02 Courtney, Joe 40.4% 43.4% 48.5% 47.3% New London/Norwich/Enfield
4.1% 8.2% 2.6% 82.3% NY-24 Katko, John 42.9% 41.9% 48.1% 47.0% Syracuse
27.2% 5.3% 4.5% 57.2% AZ-09 Sinema, Kyrsten 48.0% 47.7% 41.3% 46.4% Phoenix/Tempe
20.1% 13.8% 6.4% 57.8% NY-04 Rice, Kathleen 44.4% 43.2% 45.1% 46.2% Nassua County
76.1% 5.2% 1.8% 16.1% FL-27 Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana 49.6% 46.6% 40.1% 45.7% Miami/Miami Beach/Coral Gables
2.1% 13.1% 3.9% 78.1% MI-09 Levin, Sander 40.8% 42.3% 45.9% 45.7% Warren/Eastpointe/Clinton Twp/Royal Oaks
47.4% 9.3% 4.4% 36.5% FL-09 Soto, Darren 44.9% 43.8% 43.3% 45.5% Kissimmee
4.8% 3.0% 1.4% 86.8% MA-09 Keating, Bill 41.3% 43.7% 44.3% 45.4% New Bedford/Plymouth/Yarmouth
68.8% 8.5% 1.8% 20.1% FL-26 Curbelo, Carlos 48.2% 44.2% 41.7% 45.4% Homestead/Key West
29.0% 5.8% 11.1% 48.8% CA-03 Garamendi, John 43.3% 44.3% 43.3% 45.4% Davis/Fairfield/Woodland/Yuba City
73.9% 3.3% 3.3% 17.2% CA-21 Valadao, David 46.9% 44.3% 41.8% 45.3% Bakersfield/Hanford
11.0% 5.7% 6.5% 67.5% WA-10 Heck, Denny 41.8% 42.2% 43.8% 44.7% Olympia/Puyallup
4.8% 17.1% 1.0% 74.0% MI-05 Kildee, Dan 35.9% 38.7% 47.8% 44.6% Flint/Saginaw
27.9% 1.4% 3.4% 64.5% CO-07 Perlmutter, Ed 41.5% 42.4% 43.4% 44.6% Thornton/Arvada/Lakewood
4.9% 21.4% 2.6% 68.5% KY-03 Yarmuth, John 43.2% 43.5% 42.1% 44.6% Louisville
7.7% 3.5% 4.1% 77.1% WA-06 Kilmer, Derek 41.8% 42.3% 43.2% 44.5% Tacoma/Bremerton/Aberdeen
5.0% 51.3% 1.0% 40.2% GA-02 Bishop, Sanford 41.8% 41.0% 44.0% 44.5% Macon/Albany/Columbus
10.7% 4.2% 3.8% 79.2% RI-02 Langevin, Jim 39.0% 39.0% 46.3% 44.5%
8.8% 1.1% 9.2% 76.1% WA-01 DelBene, Suzan 42.7% 44.5% 41.1% 44.3% Redmond/Mt. Vernon/Lynden
12.8% 11.9% 10.8% 60.9% MD-06 Delaney, John 42.7% 43.5% 41.6% 44.2% Germantown/Frederick/Hagerstown
20.9% 12.1% 2.8% 62.1% FL-22 Deutch, Ted 41.3% 43.3% 42.0% 44.1% Broward County/Palm Beach County
31.1% 4.1% 4.6% 59.0% IL-03 Lipinski, Dan 40.9% 43.2% 42.0% 44.0% Oak Lawn/Lemont/Lockport
8.2% 2.8% 4.1% 82.9% MA-06 Moulton, Seth 42.1% 44.5% 40.5% 43.9% Gloucester/Billerica
14.5% 2.9% 19.0% 58.6% CA-52 Peters, Scott 43.9% 46.7% 38.0% 43.7% N. San Diego
81.4% 1.7% 1.0% 15.3% TX-15 Gonzalez, Vicente 42.4% 42.0% 41.4% 43.6% McAllen/Edinburg/Seguin
8.9% 21.1% 3.9% 63.5% DE-AL Blunt Rochester, Lisa 37.3% 40.6% 44.0% 43.6% Delaware ALL
9.1% 24.8% 2.9% 60.7% TN-05 Cooper, Jim 41.8% 43.2% 40.3% 43.3% Nashville
6.1% 8.4% 4.7% 77.7% NY-20 Tonko, Paul 40.8% 39.6% 42.9% 43.2% Albany/Schenectady
35.6% 1.7% 4.4% 55.1% CA-24 Carbajal, Salud 42.3% 44.3% 39.2% 43.2% Santa Barbara/San Luis Obispo
3.1% 11.7% 1.9% 80.9% OH-13 Ryan, Tim 36.5% 36.0% 46.6% 43.2% Youngstown/Akron
44.7% 1.6% 6.3% 44.3% CA-26 Brownley, Julia 42.3% 44.7% 38.3% 42.9% Ventura/Oxnard/Thousand Oaks
29.0% 24.1% 3.5% 40.7% FL-14 Castor, Kathy 41.3% 41.7% 40.6% 42.9% Tampa
8.9% 22.0% 1.7% 64.0% MO-05 Cleaver, Emanuel 37.2% 40.1% 42.9% 42.8% Kansas City
22.5% 10.0% 5.8% 59.8% NY-17 Lowey, Nita 41.4% 42.3% 39.6% 42.6% White Plains/Spring Valley/Peekskill
37.1% 9.3% 13.7% 35.4% CA-09 McNerney, Jerry 42.3% 41.0% 40.2% 42.6% Stockton/Lodi/Brentwood
8.1% 15.0% 3.4% 70.9% NY-25 Slaughter, Louise 40.4% 40.1% 41.3% 42.6% Rochester
48.8% 2.4% 2.1% 40.7% NM-01 Lujan Grisham, Michelle 39.5% 41.7% 40.5% 42.6% Albuquerque
19.0% 11.6% 5.4% 62.1% CT-04 Himes, Jim 40.0% 44.4% 38.0% 42.3% Stamford/Bridgeport
40.7% 1.4% 1.3% 37.7% NM-03 Lujan, Ben 38.0% 40.2% 41.5% 42.3% Santa Fe/Farmington/Clovis
1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 93.0% ME-01 Pingree, Chellie 38.4% 38.8% 42.2% 42.3% Portland/Augusta
21.7% 9.4% 18.7% 48.4% NJ-06 Pallone, Frank 41.0% 37.9% 41.9% 42.2%
15.0% 19.1% 1.3% 62.9% IN-01 Visclosky, Pete 36.1% 37.9% 43.4% 42.2% Gary/Michigan City
51.1% 10.0% 8.2% 27.7% CA-31 Aguilar, Pete 42.3% 41.5% 38.8% 42.1% San Bernadino/Rancho Cucamonga
76.9% 3.8% 0.9% 17.3% TX-28 Cuellar, Henry 41.4% 39.1% 39.8% 41.6% Laredo/San Antonio
19.1% 2.1% 7.4% 69.1% MA-03 Tsongas, Niki 40.1% 42.1% 37.8% 41.5% Lowell/Lawrence/Marlborough
59.1% 5.6% 8.7% 24.0% CA-16 Jim Costa 41.2% 40.2% 38.6% 41.4% Fresno/Merced
9.3% 4.5% 5.3% 78.7% MA-02 McGovern, Jim 38.3% 40.0% 39.6% 41.3% Worcester/Northampton
28.6% 4.0% 13.2% 52.5% IL-08 Krishnamoorthi, Raja 37.6% 41.6% 38.5% 41.2% Schaumburg/Elgin
14.4% 12.4% 4.0% 66.9% CT-03 DeLauro, Rosa 36.4% 36.4% 42.0% 41.0% New Haven
22.0% 12.6% 3.7% 59.1% FL-21 Frankel, Lois 36.2% 39.2% 40.0% 40.9% Palm Beach County
4.2% 2.7% 5.8% 84.8% MA-04 Kennedy, Joe 38.6% 42.0% 37.2% 40.8% Newton/Milford/Fall River
10.2% 0.8% 2.9% 83.5% CO-02 Polis, Jared 37.8% 40.6% 38.3% 40.8% Boulder/Fort Collins/Vail
5.4% 31.2% 2.4% 57.9% VA-04 McEachin, Donald 39.4% 39.1% 38.7% 40.8% Richmond/Chesapeake/Petersburg
14.3% 1.6% 7.3% 72.3% OR-01 Bonamici, Suzanne 38.7% 41.1% 37.6% 40.8% Washington County/McMinnville
83.8% 1.1% 0.5% 14.2% TX-34 Vela, Filemon 39.4% 38.6% 38.9% 40.7% Brownsville/Beeville/Kingsville
26.6% 11.7% 6.8% 52.1% IL-11 Foster, Bill 38.0% 41.3% 37.5% 40.7% Aurora/Joliet
5.3% 9.3% 7.5% 75.1% MA-08 Lynch, Stephen 41.2% 41.4% 36.3% 40.6% Boston/Brockton/Quincy
10.8% 2.7% 8.7% 71.4% WA-02 Larsen, Rick 38.3% 39.1% 38.0% 40.2% Everett/Bellingham
68.8% 5.0% 3.3% 21.4% TX-20 Castro, Joaquin 41.4% 40.3% 36.0% 40.1% San Antonio
5.8% 17.6% 4.1% 69.9% NY-26 Higgins, Brian 35.7% 34.9% 39.7% 39.3% Buffalo/Niagra Falls
18.5% 11.4% 4.1% 63.4% FL-10 Demings, Val 38.7% 38.7% 36.1% 39.3% Orlando/Disney World
40.0% 11.1% 3.2% 43.6% FL-23 Wasserman Schultz, Debbie 37.6% 38.2% 36.7% 39.2% Broward County
23.2% 6.4% 10.0% 57.9% IL-10 Schneider, Brad 36.3% 41.7% 34.5% 39.0% Waukegan/Round Lake/Highland Park
6.6% 33.1% 5.3% 51.9% MD-02 Ruppersberger, Dutch 38.2% 35.8% 37.2% 38.7%
16.7% 5.9% 1.9% 73.5% MA-01 Neal, Richard 34.5% 34.9% 39.0% 38.7% Springfield/Pittsfield
16.2% 14.5% 4.8% 62.3% CT-01 Larson, John 33.3% 36.4% 37.9% 38.5% Hartford
12.9% 51.9% 2.6% 30.4% FL-05 Lawson, Al 36.2% 35.8% 37.2% 38.4% Jacksonville/Tallahassee
11.0% 29.7% 2.4% 54.1% IN-07 Carson, Andre 33.1% 36.0% 38.0% 38.4% Indianapolis
61.6% 4.1% 1.5% 28.1% AZ-03 Grijalva, Raul 41.2% 37.5% 34.2% 38.3% Tucson/Avondale/Yuma
58.9% 8.1% 6.4% 23.1% CA-41 Takano, Mark 39.2% 37.1% 35.2% 38.3% Riverside/Moreno Valley
34.3% 6.9% 22.9% 32.6% CA-47 Lowenthal, Alan 40.2% 38.5% 33.1% 37.9% Long Beach/Westminster
8.5% 22.9% 7.5% 58.1% MD-03 Sarbanes, John 38.7% 38.0% 33.8% 37.8%
13.1% 16.4% 4.8% 63.9% NJ-01 Norcross, Donald 34.6% 34.2% 37.3% 37.6% Camden
11.0% 14.9% 1.4% 69.4% OH-09 Kaptur, Marcy 32.1% 31.4% 38.3% 36.8% Toledo/Cleveland suburbs
2.1% 66.1% 0.4% 30.7% MS-02 Thompson, Bennie 35.4% 33.2% 35.6% 36.6% Jackson/Vicksburg
6.5% 9.5% 12.1% 68.2% MN-04 McCollum, Betty 36.2% 36.2% 33.2% 36.5% St. Paul/Stillwater
17.3% 6.8% 2.9% 69.0% RI-01 Cicilline, David 32.3% 32.7% 36.6% 36.4% Newport/Woonsocket
15.0% 11.5% 9.3% 61.4% MD-08 Raskin, Jamie 36.2% 36.8% 32.4% 36.3% Silver Spring/Rockville/Westminster
5.8% 10.5% 5.4% 74.8% MI-12 Dingell, Debbie 31.9% 33.1% 36.2% 36.3% Ann Arbor/Dearborn
33.4% 7.4% 13.8% 40.6% CA-53 Davis, Susan 37.1% 37.2% 31.5% 36.1% Lemon Grove/La Mesa/Chula Vista
44.0% 10.8% 8.1% 33.5% NV-01 Titus, Dina 33.8% 33.1% 34.6% 35.8% Las Vegas
60.9% 9.9% 1.3% 26.1% TX-35 Doggett, Lloyd 35.7% 35.5% 32.2% 35.7% Austin/San Antonio
66.8% 1.3% 12.9% 17.2% CA-46 Correa, Lou 40.2% 37.1% 29.6% 35.7% Anaheim/Santa Ana
8.0% 37.0% 4.2% 46.8% MD-05 Hoyer, Steny 34.0% 32.8% 33.9% 35.4% Bowie/Waldorf/Lexington Park
19.0% 12.4% 17.4% 47.0% VA-11 Connolly, Gerry 38.8% 37.3% 29.1% 35.3% Reston/Fairfax/Dale City
11.5% 17.0% 9.5% 59.6% PA-13 Boyle, Brendan 34.0% 33.2% 33.2% 35.2% Philadelphia/Lansdale/Norristown
36.1% 9.3% 12.4% 40.4% NJ-09 Pascrell, Bill 35.5% 31.1% 34.0% 35.1% Paterson
1.7% 0.9% 1.6% 93.2% VT-AL Welch, Peter 31.1% 31.8% 34.8% 35.0% Vermont ALL
6.1% 56.6% 2.1% 31.6% VA-03 Scott, Bobby 34.1% 32.1% 33.4% 34.9% Norfolk/Newport News
28.1% 3.9% 37.9% 27.3% CA-27 Chu, Judy 36.5% 35.9% 30.1% 34.9% Pasadena/Rosemead/Monterey Park/Claremont
19.6% 3.4% 39.6% 35.0% NY-06 Meng, Grace 36.4% 31.4% 33.0% 34.9% Queens (flushing)
16.2% 16.5% 16.5% 48.1% NJ-12 Watson Coleman, Bonnie 33.6% 32.8% 32.9% 34.8% Trenton/Princeton
12.9% 2.1% 13.8% 66.0% CA-33 Lieu, Ted 34.0% 37.8% 28.1% 34.1% Santa Monica/Malibu
79.2% 3.8% 1.2% 14.7% TX-16 O’Rourke, Beto 35.4% 35.0% 28.6% 33.7% El Paso
63.1% 3.3% 14.9% 16.4% CA-38 Sanchez, Linda 36.5% 33.7% 29.0% 33.6% Artesia/Norwalk/Whittier
62.0% 3.0% 17.9% 15.5% CA-32 Napolitano, Grace 36.1% 33.3% 29.4% 33.6% El Monte/West Covina
11.9% 29.2% 5.8% 49.4% NC-04 Price, David 33.5% 34.6% 29.2% 33.6% Raleigh/Chapel Hill
2.3% 21.2% 3.3% 70.0% PA-14 Doyle, Michael 32.3% 31.0% 31.6% 33.4% Pittsburgh
8.3% 53.2% 1.4% 34.6% NC-01 Butterfield, G.K. 32.4% 31.4% 30.6% 33.0% Durham/rural Black
8.0% 2.1% 48.7% 16.9% HI-01 Hanabusa, Colleen 28.7% 29.4% 32.6% 32.7% Honolulu
13.7% 50.7% 4.1% 28.5% NC-12 Adams, Alma 31.5% 31.6% 29.5% 32.4% Charlotte
77.0% 11.1% 1.2% 10.0% TX-29 Green, Gene 37.4% 33.4% 26.3% 32.3% Houston
6.3% 4.3% 4.0% 82.9% WI-02 Pocan, Mark 29.0% 30.9% 30.6% 32.3% Madison
8.7% 5.1% 11.5% 72.3% MA-05 Clark, Katherine 32.7% 33.7% 27.1% 32.0% Lexington/Framingham
70.5% 5.8% 5.7% 15.2% CA-35 Torres, Norma 33.3% 31.2% 28.4% 32.0% Pomona/Ontario/Fontana
6.2% 32.1% 3.6% 53.5% OH-03 Beatty, Joyce 31.7% 29.3% 29.9% 31.8% Columbus
4.8% 56.4% 1.1% 35.5% SC-06 Clyburn, Jim 29.2% 28.4% 31.2% 31.7% Columbia/Charleston
26.9% 5.2% 12.0% 52.1% CA-30 Sherman, Brad 32.0% 33.0% 27.1% 31.7% San Fernando Valley
12.2% 1.9% 24.4% 28.9% HI-02 Gabbard, Tulsi 25.3% 27.2% 32.5% 31.4% Outer Islands
10.8% 9.0% 13.2% 64.6% IL-09 Schakowsky, Jan 30.6% 33.9% 26.2% 31.3% Evanston/Des Plaines
12.4% 55.6% 2.4% 28.0% GA-13 Scott, David 32.5% 30.2% 27.3% 30.9% Stockbridge/Douglasville
2.6% 63.7% 0.6% 31.5% AL-07 Sewell, Terri 28.2% 27.2% 29.4% 30.3% Birmingham
19.0% 2.5% 6.5% 69.7% IL-05 Quigley, Mike 29.2% 32.5% 25.3% 30.2% Chicago
22.8% 6.4% 32.5% 33.0% CA-15 Swalwell, Eric 30.9% 30.5% 25.7% 30.0% Hayword/Dublin/Livermore
29.0% 12.6% 15.5% 36.1% CA-06 Matsui, Doris 29.9% 29.1% 26.1% 29.5% Sacramento
12.1% 10.3% 23.9% 46.1% WA-09 Smith, Adam 30.4% 30.2% 24.9% 29.4% Bellevue/Federal Way
19.1% 13.4% 12.1% 51.8% VA-08 Beyer, Don 33.1% 32.3% 22.1% 29.2% Arlington/Alexandria
70.9% 6.4% 7.5% 13.0% CA-51 Vargas, Juan 33.0% 29.4% 24.1% 29.2% Chula Vista/El Centro
26.7% 7.5% 13.0% 47.3% CA-11 DeSaulnier, Mark 28.9% 30.7% 24.1% 28.9% Concord/Richmond/Pittsburg
28.2% 8.1% 3.6% 57.2% CO-01 DeGette, Diana 28.0% 29.4% 25.2% 28.9% Denver
27.6% 6.3% 11.1% 50.1% CA-05 Thompson, Mike 27.1% 28.3% 26.0% 28.8% Vallejo/Napa/Santa Rosa
64.0% 8.9% 2.8% 20.2% AZ-07 Gallego, Ruben 34.5% 27.0% 24.0% 28.6% Phoenix
63.2% 16.7% 2.3% 16.3% TX-33 Veasey, Mark 31.0% 27.3% 24.5% 28.4% Dallas/Fort Worth
17.9% 1.5% 3.9% 70.8% CA-02 Huffman, Jared 26.0% 28.1% 25.2% 28.2% Eureka/San Marin County
52.4% 1.8% 5.2% 37.4% CA-20 Panetta, Jimmy 26.8% 27.0% 24.8% 27.7% Monterey/Santa Cruz
26.6% 2.1% 13.6% 54.4% CA-28 Schiff, Adam 27.1% 27.4% 23.6% 27.3% Burbank/Glendale
41.6% 2.6% 27.0% 25.5% CA-19 Lofgren, Zoe 29.9% 27.1% 22.8% 27.2% San Jose/Morgan Hill
16.7% 2.2% 22.3% 54.6% CA-18 Eshoo, Anna 27.8% 29.8% 21.6% 27.2% San Jose/Mountain View
11.1% 4.7% 6.3% 72.0% OR-03 Blumenauer, Earl 25.0% 25.5% 24.1% 26.6% Portland
24.1% 29.0% 5.5% 39.0% NY-16 Engel, Eliot 26.3% 25.7% 23.1% 26.3% Yonkers/Bronx/Rye
16.1% 2.6% 52.0% 25.4% CA-17 Khanna, Ro 28.9% 26.2% 21.7% 26.2% Sunnyvale/Fremont
10.2% 56.4% 5.2% 25.9% GA-04 Johnson, Hank 26.4% 25.8% 22.8% 26.2% DeKalb County
16.3% 33.8% 3.7% 43.3% WI-04 Moore, Gwen 24.8% 24.0% 22.7% 25.3% Milwaukee
5.6% 61.8% 2.3% 28.6% LA-02 Richmond, Cedric 25.7% 23.1% 22.9% 25.3% New Orleans/Baton Rouge
9.1% 16.3% 5.7% 64.4% MN-05 Ellison, Keith 25.0% 24.6% 20.1% 24.2% Minneapolis
54.9% 8.5% 9.5% 24.8% NJ-08 Sires, Albio 26.2% 20.9% 22.1% 24.2% Hoboken/Union City
4.0% 53.2% 6.7% 33.5% MD-07 Cummings, Elijah 22.7% 22.8% 21.4% 23.9% Baltimore
12.5% 3.1% 18.4% 63.3% NY-10 Nadler, Jerrold 23.2% 25.4% 19.4% 23.8% Manhatten/Brooklyn
41.2% 38.7% 3.3% 15.5% TX-18 Jackson-Lee, Sheila 23.0% 23.1% 20.7% 23.7% Houston
24.2% 3.2% 32.6% 34.8% CA-14 Speier, Jackie 24.7% 24.1% 19.1% 23.6% San Mateo/Daly City
6.6% 65.6% 1.8% 24.0% TN-09 Cohen, Steve 22.6% 21.1% 20.3% 22.8% Memphis
9.9% 50.9% 1.6% 36.1% IL-01 Rush, Bobby 18.6% 20.4% 22.1% 22.8% Chicago/Frankfort
15.7% 52.3% 2.8% 26.9% MD-04 Brown, Anthony 22.0% 20.9% 19.8% 22.4% DC black suburbs
37.7% 37.6% 12.3% 10.5% TX-09 Green, Al 23.2% 21.3% 18.5% 22.0% Houston
47.9% 9.8% 16.7% 23.9% NY-14 Crowley, Joe 23.2% 18.5% 20.3% 22.0% Bronx/Queens
69.1% 3.7% 7.4% 18.3% CA-29 Cardenas, Tony 23.7% 21.0% 17.8% 21.7% San Fernando Valley
39.0% 42.5% 1.9% 14.8% TX-30 Johnson, E.B. 21.2% 19.8% 18.8% 21.3% Dallas
45.8% 23.6% 11.3% 15.1% CA-43 Waters, Maxine 22.7% 20.4% 17.6% 21.2% Inglewood/Torrance
2.8% 49.1% 2.5% 42.2% MO-01 Clay, Lacy 18.8% 19.1% 19.6% 21.1% St. Louis
13.2% 55.3% 0.7% 29.6% IL-02 Kelly, Robin 18.3% 18.6% 19.7% 20.9% S. Chicago Suburbs/Kankakee
4.7% 56.5% 4.7% 31.1% MI-14 Lawrence, Brenda 17.2% 18.7% 18.8% 20.3% Detroit/Southfield/Pontiac
16.4% 35.2% 6.6% 39.8% PA-01 Brady, Bob 20.7% 17.0% 18.6% 20.3% Philadelphia
21.5% 51.3% 2.2% 22.8% FL-20 Hastings, Alcee 18.7% 17.2% 18.4% 19.9% Broward County/Palm Beach County
14.2% 4.4% 13.2% 65.1% NY-12 Maloney, Carolyn 19.2% 21.8% 13.9% 19.3% Manhatten/Brooklyn
3.7% 54.0% 2.3% 37.7% OH-11 Fudge, Marcia 17.3% 16.6% 17.4% 19.0% Cleveland/Akron
6.8% 54.9% 1.2% 34.3% MI-13 Conyers, John 14.3% 14.4% 18.7% 18.3% Detroit/Romulus/Wayne
70.6% 4.2% 3.3% 20.7% IL-04 Gutierrez, Luis 18.4% 17.4% 13.9% 17.6% Chicago
7.6% 4.1% 10.3% 71.7% WA-07 Jayapal, Pramila 18.3% 18.6% 12.9% 17.5% Seattle
86.9% 4.6% 2.9% 4.7% CA-40 Roybal-Allard, Lucille 19.8% 16.8% 13.5% 17.5% Huntington Park/Downey
32.1% 54.3% 1.5% 10.6% FL-24 Wilson, Frederica 15.7% 14.0% 15.5% 16.8% Miami
11.5% 47.8% 7.1% 31.4% NY-09 Clarke, Yvette 15.2% 14.0% 14.7% 16.4% Brooklyn
20.8% 22.9% 9.8% 42.2% MA-07 Capuano, Mike 16.9% 15.9% 12.4% 16.1% Boston
6.6% 57.6% 4.4% 29.3% GA-05 Lewis, John 15.1% 16.0% 12.3% 15.8% Atlanta
70.5% 15.4% 5.8% 6.1% CA-44 Barragan, Nanette 16.5% 13.8% 12.9% 15.6% Compton
64.8% 3.7% 20.4% 9.5% CA-34 Becerra, Xavier 19.8% 14.5% 11.3% 15.6% Los Angeles Downtown
18.9% 52.3% 6.3% 20.5% NJ-10 Payne, Donald 14.7% 11.6% 13.1% 14.7% Newark
18.2% 52.2% 4.9% 22.4% NY-08 Jeffries, Hakeem 14.0% 10.3% 13.8% 14.5% Brooklyn
18.4% 49.0% 13.7% 10.4% NY-05 Meeks, Gregory 14.0% 9.1% 12.9% 13.6% Queens
39.3% 21.8% 10.4% 25.5% CA-37 Bass, Karen 13.4% 13.0% 10.1% 13.4% USC campus/Culver City
40.7% 7.7% 19.4% 30.2% NY-07 Velazquez, Nydia 15.2% 10.4% 10.7% 13.2% Brooklyn
14.8% 5.1% 31.7% 43.3% CA-12 Pelosi, Nancy 13.4% 12.9% 9.2% 13.0% San Francisco
14.8% 49.2% 7.3% 27.0% IL-07 Davis, Danny 10.0% 11.9% 9.5% 12.2% Chicago/Oak Park
22.4% 16.9% 19.2% 35.2% CA-13 Lee, Barbara 10.3% 9.3% 7.2% 10.3% Oakland
6.2% 56.8% 5.0% 28.8% PA-02 Evans, Dwight 8.8% 9.1% 7.7% 10.2% Philadelphia
54.5% 25.2% 5.0% 12.7% NY-13 Espaillat, Adriano 6.1% 4.6% 5.5% 7.1% Manhatten
65.3% 29.9% 1.5% 2.0% NY-15 Serrano, Jose 5.0% 3.0% 5.0% 6.1% Bronx

 

Previous Post Next Post

15 Comments

  • krazen1211 January 30, 2017 at 11:29 am

    Amazing! If you have this in some sort of google doc spreadsheet, a link would be great.

    • shamlet January 30, 2017 at 11:35 am

      Twinpines, send it to us and we’ll put it in a sortable Google Doc on the Resources Page.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Republican Michigander January 30, 2017 at 12:44 pm

    Interesting results (although I use 3rd parties in my analysis to show elasticity)
    Michigan:
    Order of more R to least R.
    The 10th District used to be the 3rd or 4th most R district (behind the 2nd, 3rd, and sometimes 4th). It’s hard to believe D’s used to win parts of that area quite regularly as late as the 2000’s.

    The 4th District moved to the right outside of Mt Pleasant and maybe Midland. The farm areas and up north areas, some of which have D roots (Southern Saginaw County, Clare County), moved our way big league.

    The 2nd District is interesting. The more R area there (Ottawa) moved left, but the most D area (Muskegon County) moved right. Some of the bleeding was stopped (evened out).

    The 1st District was a swing district usually in the low 50’s at the top of the ticket. Bergman can thank Trump for the contest being easier than expected.

    The 7th District, the swingiest district recently, is the 5th most R by this measurement. There’s no Calhoun County anymore (although Trump won it), and 1/2 of Scio is gone, but Monroe County has a long D tradition and wasn’t safe territory for Walberg.

    The 3rd district used to be the 2nd most R district in the state. Kent County is becoming a problem. Grand Rapids used to be slightly D, but it’s now 60%+D. Calhoun County isn’t safe, but it is going in our direction some however.

    The 11th district was tough for Trump, although Trump did well in Livonia. Suburbs are not a monolithic bloc. Livonia moved right. Canton was another disaster, as was Novi. Northville and Plymouth were rough for Trump although he survived it. He held his own however in Milford, Highland, and the White Lake area. He did well in Waterford.

    The 8th is the battle of the bases. I know you ranked the 8th slightly less R than the 11th based on previous elections. Trump did better in the 8th than the 11th by a percent. This seat won’t be completely safe as long as Ingham County is in it. Luckily, Northern Oakland doesn’t have a lot of Pontiac spillover, and Livingston County’s Ann Arbor spillover is controlled a bit (although concerning a bit with Hamburg and Putnam Twps).

    The 6th was given the same score as the 8th. I was surprised that Trump did better in the 6th than the 8th. I overestimated Kalamazoo and St Joe’s (City) impact and underestimated Trump’s appeal in swing Van Buren and the rural slight R counties.

    ——————-
    Of the D held seats:
    9th – Levin would be tough to dislodge, but I’d like to see it targeted in a gubernatorial year if it’s open. If we have a good blue collar Macomb candidate who isn’t offensive to the independents and soft D’s in Bloomfield Twp (still safe R for non Trumps), Royal Oak, and Madison Heights (where Trump improved), maybe we get lucky.

    5th – Kildee’s have won there for generations, like Levin. Still, 47% in a district with D roots this strong is shocking. Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City. If Trump keeps his promise, this is a good one to go after in 2020. It’s also going to be a problem in 2018 with Flint water and Snyder.

    12th – Dingell – Surprisingly this district moved a little to the right despite Ann Arbor. That shows how strong Trump was downriver. I may be 20 miles from Ann Arbor, but it’s like a whole other country, or at least another state.

    MI-13/14 – No surprises, although Trump did surprisingly well in MI-13.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • GOPTarHeel January 30, 2017 at 1:40 pm

    This actually shows how the redraw of the NC districts was a huge boon to the GOP. The old NC-9 probably moved 5-8 points to the left this year, same for the old NC-13, but since the seats are more compact now they’re likely safe for the decade.


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • krazen1211 January 30, 2017 at 6:53 pm

      I looked up some figures. The old NC-01 was 71-29 Obama/McCain. The old NC-04 was 72-27 Obama/McCain. The old NC-12 was 78/22. I’ll have to find Romney numbers.

      The new districts per 2016 figures aren’t quite as effective vote sinks (68/31, 68/28, 68/28, respectively), but they ended up pretty close on the first two. The first 2 districts matter much more than NC-12 since there is excess GOP strength in Western NC.

      • GOPTarHeel January 30, 2017 at 7:29 pm

        The Wake and Meck precincts that were in the old NC-13 and -9 swung wildly left this year though, while the Fayetteville/Forsyth/Guilford/rural black precincts were stagnant or trended right. Plus trading rich Charlotte burbs for Lumbee precincts was a shockingly favorable trade.


        R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

        • krazen1211 January 31, 2017 at 8:26 am

          Ah, that is true.

          The old NC-09 and NC-13 were 45-54 Obama/McCain when drawn. The new NC-02 and NC-09 are 44-53 and 43-54 in 2016, respectively. So I do think you make a generally great point.

          FWIW, the new NC-13 is only 44-53 Clinton/Trump and is technically the weakest of the bunch, but that area doesn’t seem to be trending anywhere.

          We ended up with districts of similar strength under a cleaner map and I think we are better set up for 2020.

  • Izengabe January 30, 2017 at 3:10 pm

    Wow! Really good work! This will be my new go to for PVI Index score!

    Thanks. This is awesome.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • shamlet January 30, 2017 at 7:51 pm

    This chart is now up on the resources page!


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • WingNightAlone January 31, 2017 at 1:07 pm

    Wow, interesting stuff! I noticed NH seems to be creeping back to the right since 2008. It’s a better Trump fit than the ’16 results indicate (especially the inland seat) and should be key in any 2020 offensive plans along with ME-AL, NV, and MN. Those 23 EVs could help offset losing MI or PA, both of which I think are more at risk than NC/WI (tier 2) and FL/AZ/GA (tier 3).


    25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

  • krazen1211 February 3, 2017 at 10:53 am

    So the Median House district in the 2012 election was NC-09. Pittenger won by 6.

    Looking at Twinpines figures, the Median House district in the 2016 election was UT-04. Mia Love won by 13. The Democrats won most of the House races within a 5 point margin.

  • FreedomJim February 3, 2017 at 6:21 pm

    Great work. How are some of the PVIs higher than all three presidential percentages?

    • twinpines February 3, 2017 at 6:37 pm

      The PVI is calculated such that a district that has a PVI of 50% would be a district that the republican candidate gets 50% in when he/she is getting 50% nationally. Remember that none of the last 3 presidential candidates got 50% nationally. They all got less. PVI measures the partisan performance relative to the national average, its not itself a pure average.


      AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

      • twinpines February 3, 2017 at 6:39 pm

        Simple example for a 1 year PVI. Lets say Rubio gets 54% nationally and 56% in a particular district. The PVI of that district is not 56%, its R+2 or 52% because the district is 2% to the right of the national performance that Rubio got.


        AZ LD-20, Conservative Independent, not associated with either party.

    Leave a Reply