11-3 North Carolina

Here’s my 11-3 NC map, as promised. This is going to be quick and dirty because I’m working to get the last UK diary out in a few days. These aren’t final, but they’ve got rough population estimates. Once we get the real numbers, the map can be refined. Keep in mind that we’re using 2008 numbers, so adjust accordingly.

 

Statewide

 

NC-01

This one is blacker than the current district, so there’s no problem on that front. Not much changes except the acquisition of part of Nash County.

 

NC-02

Pro-Dem trends in Wake County should be mostly counteracted by exurban Republican growth in Franklin and Johnston Counties.

 

NC-03

Jones will be fine in his own little world and he even gets to keep his beloved Camp Lejeune. I suppose that if you dropped Goldsboro into this seat you could get a bit more juice out of it to use in the 14th, but we can try that adjustment another day.

 

NC-04

David Price will remain one of the most anonymous members of the House who ever actually had tough races.

 

NC-05

Foxx should be fine here as this seat should have trended rightward a bit over the last few cycles.

 

NC-06

The same goes for Rev. Walker.

 

NC-07

I had to play around with Fayetteville a fair amount to get 7, 8, and 9 right, but I think I found the balance. I would be worried that a possible successor to Rouzer comes from Wake County. I guess that just gives us license to split up Wake County more in 2030, though.

 

NC-08

The challenge with this district was actually making it LESS Republican, but Fayetteville obliged me.

 

NC-09

And here we see the fruits of that effort. Pittenger isn’t going to break any margin records, but this should be fine for him.

 

NC-10

There’s not much to say here, so I won’t.

 

NC-11

Ditto on this one.

 

NC-12

I’m almost certain that adams will get another primary challenge because she doesn’t actually live in Charlotte. If she’s in office to see a map like this though, she;ll likely be entrenched.

 

NC-13

Tedd Budd actually gets some PVI improvement. I guess that I could have given the 6th a bit of help, but again, that detail can be worked out later.

 

NC-14

And here is the new district. As I said earlier, some moves with the 7th and 3rd could boost the numbers a bit. However, it should be noted that Trump will have done a lot better than McCain here. Also, the growth in the area (and there’s a lot of it) is mostly Yankee Rs, especially military and middle-class retirees.

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16 Comments

  • shamletFebruary 1, 2017 at 7:41 am

    Interesting. I actually think that 14th will be a reasonably safe GOP district in 6 years given trends in that area. What I don’t like is that I’m not at all confident of the security of that NC-2 or NC-8. Cabarrus is going to be the next big destination of middle-class minority growth, and suburban Wake is likely going to keep heading away from us. I could see both of those being swing seats early next decade.


    R, MD-7
    Process is more important than outcome.

    • rdelbovFebruary 1, 2017 at 10:13 am

      Some variation of this map IMO works well. The map could look different without the same incumbents in 2021.

    • GOPTarHeelFebruary 1, 2017 at 10:23 am

      Unless the Fourth Circuit decision is overturned or made irrelevant by SCOTUS soon, I’m afraid carving up Nash County like that will invite a racial gerrymandering challenge, especially since this map divides counties in the same way that bothered the judges so much in the old map. But if we have a little wiggle room, this is probably the way to go.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

    • krazen1211February 1, 2017 at 11:09 am

      I like this map, although I think NC-02 could fall due to demographic shifts, and that NC-07 could fall to a conservadem (if those ever come back).

    • Son_of_the_SouthFebruary 1, 2017 at 1:06 pm

      This NC-08 was R+10 in 2008. Cabarrus may trend left, but the rural areas have trended rightward. They likely balance each other out. As for NC-02, that’s my one area of concern. If Rouzer retires or runs for something we can probably fix that by unifying Johnston County. I can then shore up the 7th again by pulling that tenth point out of NC-08. There are a couple more things to do that could shore things up, but I think that this is the general plan if we want to do 11-4.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • shamletFebruary 1, 2017 at 1:15 pm

        The rural areas there aren’t that populous. Most of the population of that seat is in Cabarrus, Fayetteville, or Chatham (which is also heading left).


        R, MD-7
        Process is more important than outcome.

        • Son_of_the_SouthFebruary 1, 2017 at 1:35 pm

          Well, one of my possible variations involves Chatham going to the 7th (though the replacement is more Fayetteville). Either way, i’m really not that worried about the 8th. i might do some estimated Trump numbers just to check, but it should be fine.


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • rdelbovFebruary 1, 2017 at 10:17 am

    I should add–great work. I think you have a key to a NC map and that is no one gets left behind or rather no one gets a free ride. Every GOP has take in some D area.

    I personally would just do Johnson county and whatever GOP area you can get in Wake county. A compact area might have a few less R voters but gives an incumbent a chance to build up his or her home area. I like the map overall and a few less county splits would not impact overall numbers all that much.

    • Son_of_the_SouthFebruary 1, 2017 at 12:58 pm

      Well, the problem is that Rouzer lives in Johnson County and Holding lives in Wake County, so that ‘s not politically realistic at the moment.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • roguemapperFebruary 1, 2017 at 4:23 pm

        Johnston. Your map has put Rouzer’s house in NC-02 by the way.


        Dem NC-11

        • Son_of_the_SouthFebruary 2, 2017 at 2:42 am

          Well, if you check other comments and the diary itself you’ll see that I had the correct name and this was an autocorrect error. As for Rouzer, last I time checked he lived in Benson. All of Benson is in my 7th. If he no longer lives in Benson, by all means, I’d love to know where he lives so i can draw better maps. Also, what do you think of the map overall?


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • GOPTarHeelFebruary 2, 2017 at 7:50 am

            He lives in McGees crossroads, an unincorporated area near but not in Benson.


            R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

            • Son_of_the_SouthFebruary 2, 2017 at 8:09 am

              Aha


              23, R, DC-AL
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • roguemapperFebruary 2, 2017 at 9:07 pm

                Rouzer lives in North Pleasant Grove. That’s PR23 on DRA. You might need to tweak NC-06 as well. Walker lives in Quaker Run. That’s G40A2. I can’t tell whether it’s on the NC-06 or the NC-13 side of the line.


                Dem NC-11

                • Son_of_the_SouthFebruary 3, 2017 at 3:37 am

                  Thanks


                  23, R, DC-AL
                  Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • FreedomJimFebruary 1, 2017 at 9:51 pm

    I am impressed that your 1st is plurality black with only four partial counties. Sometimes I think the black parts of Raleigh should be in the 1st, but there are probably too many whites in between those parts and the current first.

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