Political Roundup for February 14, 2017

Happy Love Day -er- Valentines Day. First off, there are two Special Elections to preview for today, one legislative and one for the NYC Council. The State House special this week is for MN-LD-32B, an R+8 (2012) seat in deep-red northeast Twin Cities exurbs along the Wisconsin border near Lindstrom. The seat is open after the 2016 election was invalidated, due to the prior incumbent’s residency violations. Anne Neu (R), a veteran MNGOP campaign operative, should be a clear favorite over 2014/2016 nominee and former Duluth city councilwoman Laurie Warner (D), especially as this seat likely moved right in 2016. However, Dems are targeting this race with a surprising amount of enthusiasm, and a surprise upset may be possible.

There is also a NYC Council Special for NYC-CD-9, a 60% BVAP, D+44 (2008) district basically coextensive with Central Harlem. NYC Council specials are in a non-partisan winner-take-all format. There are 9 Democrats and 1 Republican running, six of them serious and three with some chance to win. State Sen. Bill Perkins (D) is the clear front-runner, as he has represented the entire area in the Senate for a decade. However, Perkins has had a mavericky streak at times that has left him on mediocre terms with the Harlem machine. Transit union official Marvin Holland (D) looks like Perkins’s most serious competition. Holland has lapped the field (including Perkins) in fundraising and has strong labor support. However, his name recognition is poor and he has alienated some establishment figures with a very aggressive campaign (including trying to get almost all his rivals disqualified over petition technicalities). If Labor gets out the vote for him, Holland could pull the upset over Perkins’s name rec. The other candidate who could upset Perkins is former civil servant Larry-Scott Blackmon (D). Blackmon has surprisingly attracted a considerable amount of establishment support, including an endorsement from the previous council member, but doesn’t have Holland’s labor backing or Perkins’s name recognition. He also has received unflattering headlines for allegedly getting insiders to pull strings to keep him on the ballot in spite of an illegal party name. Thus, he looks like a long-shot. Two other Dems, Athena Moore (D), a staffer for the Manhattan Borough President, and Community Board member Charles Cooper (D), are both running serious campaigns and have a modicum of establishment backing, but look like very long-shots to come out on top. An interesting candidate who won’t win is social worker and businesswoman Dawn Simmons (R). Simmons is a credible candidate who has actually raised the third-most of the field, and received headlines for being endorsed by “Rent is Too Damn High” perennial candidate Jimmy McMillan (RITDH), but her party label (and thus her lack of Dem establishment support) will prevent her from taking more than a few percent here. The other four candidates, realtor Todd Stevens (D), attorney Pierre Gooding (D), businessman Donald Fields (D), and a Some Dude, seem to be non-serious. Overall this still looks like Perkins’s race to lose, as the establishment and anti-Perkins vote is split among enough candidates with low name rec to mean that Perkins’s name rec and machine should get him to a victory. However, that victory will probably be a low plurality one and Holland or Blackmon could pull the upset.

Now the rest of the day’s news….

President/National:

Natonal Security Adviser: Last Night Mike Flynn resigned as NSA over allegedly lying to Pence about his conversations with the Russian Ambassador. Retired admiral Robert Harward is apparently the front-runner to take over the job.

Treasury/VA: The Senate confirmed Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin and VA Sec. David Shulkin to their posts last night. Linda McMahon (SBA), Mick Mulvaney (OMB), Scott Pruitt (EPA), Wilbur Ross (Commerce), Ryan Zinke (Interior), Ben Carson (HUD), and Rick Perry (Energy) are all considered likely to go through before the end of the week.

Congress:

MA-Sen: State Rep. Geoff Diehl (R) is considering a run against Sen. and cookbook author Elizabeth Warren (D). Diehl is a staunch conservative who represents a deep-red district by Bay State standards, so he’d likely stand little chance, but he does not have the polarizing image of former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling (R), who has some controversial statements and a failed video game company under his belt. Businessman Rick Green (R), who runs a conservative activist group as well, is also considering a run.

TX-Sen: Rep. Joaquin Castro (D) is considering a run for the seat of Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and will decide in the next 8 weeks. Castro joins fellow Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) in exploring this contest; Democrats may be feeling emboldened to take on Cruz after Hillary did better than expected in the Lone Star State, but the state’s huge size and inelastic nature presents a high hurdle.

GA-6: 8 candidates filed for HHS Secretary Tom Price’s (R) vacated congressional seat in the northern Atlanta suburbs. Four candidates are notable, State Sen. Judson Hill (R), ex-State Sens. Dan Moody (R) and Ron Slotin (D), and former congressional staffer Jon Osoff (D), who has had strong fundraising. Several others are expected to enter as well.

SC-5: Ex-SCGOP chair Chad Connelly (R) will run for the seat of OMB-director designate Mick Mulvaney (R); Connelly joins about a half-dozen other Republicans in the race for the deep-red seat. Connelly’s establishment ties could make him a credible contender and he looks likely to join State Reps. Tommy Pope (R) and Ralph Norman (R) in the first tier of contenders for this seat.

Governor, State & Local:

MA-Gov: 1994 LG nominee Bob Massie (D), a bold progressive netroots favorite, is considering a run against Gov. Charlie Baker (R). Newton Mayor Setti Warren (D) and Gov. Deval Patrick admin official Jay Gonzales (D) have also been exploring bids here.

NJ-Gov: Former Saturday Night Live star Joe Piscopo (R) is doing “due dilligence” on a run for Governor of New Jersey, the clearest indication that the comedian is serious about exploring a bid. Piscopo would join LG Kim Guandagno (R) and State Rep. Jack Ciattarelli (R), along with some minor candidates, in the race for the nomination to succeed toxic Gov. Chris Christie (R). Former ambassador Jon Corzine Jr. Phil Murphy (D) is considered the likely Dem nominee and the favorite over any GOP contender.

MI-SoS: 2010 nominee and law school dean Jocelyn Benson (D) is considering a second bid for SoS in 2018. Benson would likely be the front-runner for the Dem nod if she ran, as her 2010 campaign was well-regarded by party insiders. State Sen. Mike Kowall (R) and State Rep. Lee Chatfield (R) are considering runs on the GOP side for the seat of termed-out incumbent Ruth Johnson (R).

PA-LG: Ex-State Rep. Gordon Denlinger (R) of Lancaster County is the first candidate to consider a run for LG. Pennsylvania uses the “shotgun wedding” system in which LGs and Governors run separately in the primaries but together in the general, which can create some chaotic LG races in which candidates have no idea who their running mates will be.

St. Petersburg-Mayor: Ex-St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker (R) has flirted with bids for multiple offices over the last couple years, including runs for FL-13, Florida Governor, and Attorney General, but now it looks like he may run for his old job, taking on incumbent St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman (D) in this year’s election. Baker, who is well-regarded, would almost certainly be the GOP’s strongest candidate for the mayoral post.

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156 Comments

  • MaxwellsDemon February 14, 2017 at 7:25 am

    Chris Christie might be coming back in from the cold. The Flynn disaster is proving him right about Trump being surrounded by incompetent people and the roll out of basically all of their plans has been terrible. Hopefully with the cabinet confirmed this week, the grownups can take over and stop getting the admin in the news for all of the wrong, and most easily avoidable reasons possible.

    • GOPTarHeel February 14, 2017 at 8:37 am

      With Flynn out, there are really 2-3 main problematic people in the admin left. Kellyanne Conway, who seems to view lying on cable TV as her job description. She’s really in her own category since I don’t see what value she adds. Then the BannonMiller who add the necessary populist/nationalist perspective, but who seem to be so conspiratorial that they refuse to allow proper agency vetting procedures to go forward.


      R/NC-4.

      • shamlet February 14, 2017 at 9:12 am

        I think Conway is useful as a rodeo clown. Trump seems to regard manufacturing controversies and tweaking the media for its own sake as of supreme necessity, and Conway fills that role while leaving more serious figures largely untainted.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Manhatlibertarian February 14, 2017 at 12:44 pm

          One of the news shows had imaginary Valentine’s day cards. Conway’s card read something like “My love for you is as true as the Bowling Green massacre”

    • zbigreddogz February 14, 2017 at 9:23 am

      What job would Christie take?

      Honestly, he hasn’t helped his “competence” argument in the last few years, although I still think he probably is at the core.

      • RRR February 14, 2017 at 12:52 pm

        White House taste tester?


        NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Scarsdale Test conservative
        Victories can be Pyrrhic

        • TexasR February 14, 2017 at 1:02 pm

          Are we sure he isn’t in the running for White House Big Mac Delivery Boy?


          Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
          Be careful what you wish for

    • HS February 14, 2017 at 9:45 am

      I am not sure Christie is the competent one. I talked to a guy who was knowledgeable who claimed that Christie was incredibly incompetent, and that was why he was let go. The guy claimed Christie didn’t do anything, and that is why they were behind.

      Considering Christie’s own record in NJ, I find this believable.

  • SlippingJimmy February 14, 2017 at 8:27 am

    Can’t we get Petraeus as Nat. Sec. Advisor?


    Republican, TX-22. Fiscal conservative, pro-gun/5-month ban social moderate.

    • Tekzilla February 14, 2017 at 9:19 am

      I love some excellent snark early in the morning.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • zbigreddogz February 14, 2017 at 9:22 am

      Bolton.

      • HS February 14, 2017 at 9:46 am

        I second that. But he would probably have to shave the mustache 🙂

      • GOPTarHeel February 14, 2017 at 9:54 am

        I’d prefer not to have President Trump oversee 14 wars next year.


        R/NC-4.

        • zbigreddogz February 14, 2017 at 10:49 am

          That is, frankly, a completely wrongheaded statement.

          Bolton’s views are not outside the conservative mainstream and are actually less likely to involve the actual use of force than most others who have been discussed. To say otherwise is basically to say you don’t really understand Bolton’s views, but only the media characterization of them.

          • GOPTarHeel February 14, 2017 at 11:04 am

            Obviously that’s an exaggeration, and I am not a foreign policy guy. I just don’t think Bolton’s aggressive stances would be useful in the current White House.


            R/NC-4.

            • HS February 14, 2017 at 6:17 pm

              The CW on Bolton is that he is a “neo-con” and a “warmonger.” He isn’t either.

              If neo-con means Wilsonian internationalist, as I have discussed before, than Bolton is no neo-con. A neo-con like that calls for intervention to spread democratic values, and frequently justifies it based on that. See George W. Bush. I have never seen a Bolton speech where he has emphasized this, and he usually discusses US national interests instead. I would call him a realist. (He is also clearly not a former liberal who became a conservative, or a Jewish Republican interventionist, the other two definitions frequently mentioned for neo-con.)

              The “warmonger” complaint is usually made by Paulists, who pretend to be realists but are actually isolationists, and many times (in my experience) have only a basic and incomplete view of foreign affairs. Or it comes from leftists who either have an inconsistent view of foreign policy – if a Democrat President does it it is great, but otherwise I hate it – or favor only diplomacy (with no stick) or are straight out isolationists.

              Bolton actually believes in the old Roman maxim “if you want peace, prepare for war” which means the more you build up your military, and the more you make it clear that your enemies will be punished for their bad behavior, either through tough language, sanctions, other economic punishments, physical attack, or war – the less problems you will have. But what is most misunderstood about this philosophy is that by acting tough against one enemy nation, you are most likely to deter other enemy nations. Thus, war is less likely under this philosophy.

              • zbigreddogz February 15, 2017 at 10:28 am

                ^^^ I’d quibble a bit with your definition of a neocon, which I think is one of the most impossible to really define terms. But other than that…100% this.

      • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 10:03 am

        Elliot Abrams would be the best pick for NSA.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • GOPTarHeel February 14, 2017 at 10:11 am

          Did either of you listen to his campaign? He spent all of 2015-16 calling Iraq a failure and disclaiming any intentions of occupying countries.


          R/NC-4.

          • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 10:14 am

            Yes. We are just hoping that Trump governs nothing like how he campaigned! As for Abrams he was under consideration for #2 position at State.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • GOPTarHeel February 14, 2017 at 10:19 am

              Governing nothing like you campaigned is a good way to lose re-election and screw up the governing in the process.


              R/NC-4.

    • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 9:36 am

      No! You can’t put someone convicted of mishandling classified information as head of NSA. It’s not only wrong it also politically impossible after basing Trump’s entire campaign on locking up Hillary for mishandling classified information.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • GerGOP February 14, 2017 at 9:57 am

        Right there with you, but this wouldn’t deter Trump.

      • Manhatlibertarian February 14, 2017 at 12:40 pm

        100% right. Appointing Petraeus as NSA head would be a total blunder with his conviction for mishandling classified information. Right now you want someone non controversial as your new NSA head, not someone who will set off another media feeding frenzy.

    • andyroo312 February 14, 2017 at 9:41 am

      Bring back Condi!


      MA-7

      • GerGOP February 14, 2017 at 9:57 am

        Hell, yes!

        • cer February 14, 2017 at 10:56 pm

          HELL NO!


          Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 10:03 am

    RE: NYC-CD-9 special election: The election is only to fill the remainder of the council term that ends Dec 31 2017. There will be another election in November for this seat. So whoever wins today could face a primary again in September. Also if State Sen. Bill Perkins wins his state senate seat will be vacant until November. This would be huge for the Senate GOP. It would give them a little more breathing room to operate and run the senate. My two cents is Perkins wins this easily. This is Perkins old council seat that he left because of his term limit. Perkins has been representing Harlem since 1998. If he loses it will be a major upset.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • shamlet February 14, 2017 at 10:27 am

      I agree, but with turnout so miniscule weird things can happen.

      It’s a shame this Dawn Simmons doesn’t live in a better area for us – she seems like she could have had potential in a better district.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 11:20 am

        Low turnout works in Perkins favor. As an elected official he has a staff, does favors and have a machine working for him. The real surprises occur when these council special elections occur concurrent with the general election. That’s how a criminal like Ruben Willis shocked everyone by getting elected to the City Council in 2010. No one thought Willis had a chance. But when the non-partisan ballot was printed his spot was where the Democrat ballot line was and enough people voted straight Dem ticket and erroneously voted for him as well.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • shamlet February 14, 2017 at 11:23 am

          It’s a travesty ballot order isn’t universally randomly generated and different from ballot to ballot.


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

          • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 11:30 am

            Placement is determine by when candidates submit their petitions. The first filer is 1st. The 2nd is second and so on. It’s one of the many travesties of NY election law.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • StatenIslandTest February 14, 2017 at 3:28 pm

              Perkins must see the IDC-GOP coalition in the Senate lasting if hes leaving the Prize Patrol for the City Council


              31, Jersey City

              • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 4:48 pm

                The City Council is a bigger prize patrol than the senate. The council also has a much higher salary. Council members earn 148,500 a year vs $79,500 a year. And council members dont have to schlep to Albany in the middle of winter.


                Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 10:07 am

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/831510532318429184

    Trump is powerless. He will be forced to task the FBI to investigate leaks and start prosecuting bigwigs.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • MikeFL February 14, 2017 at 10:43 am

      Well when he has so many competing factions in his administration, what does he expect?


      26 | FL-3/-16 | FisCon

  • shamlet February 14, 2017 at 10:42 am

    GA-6: Handel in. https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/831517398159282176


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • TennesseeMike February 14, 2017 at 11:10 am

    “the seat of Sen. Ted Cruz (D)”
    Senator Ted Cruz is a Republican.


    TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

    • shamlet February 14, 2017 at 11:16 am

      Texas turned blue so fast that he needed to switch parties!


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 11:25 am

        Re: Castro, I wonder if this is about the brothers switching jobs? Julian is out of office now and is probably making good money. He can do that for another year or so. If Joaquin runs for Senate Julian could take his House seat and after he loses Joaquin could go off and make some money in the private sector.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • zbigreddogz February 14, 2017 at 12:01 pm

          That’s the only theory I’ve yet heard that would actually lead me to believe this is more than Castro blowing smoke.

          Interesting.

  • The Emperor February 14, 2017 at 11:43 am

    Linda McMahon was confirmed to lead the SBA


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

    • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 12:23 pm

      81-19. Both Murphy and Blumenthal voted for her. Still shocking that 19 voted no! Senate has never been this partisan and contentious.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Upstater22 February 14, 2017 at 12:29 pm

        Shocked that only 19 voted no. Is the unhinged rage machine burning out? Have some Dems moved into the Acceptance phase?


        Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

        • The Emperor February 14, 2017 at 2:01 pm

          They could be keeping their powder dry for Putzder after Sessions, Mnuchin, and DeVos were confirmed


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

  • shamlet February 14, 2017 at 11:58 am

    TN State Rep. Mark Lovell (R) is resigning over harassment allegations. This was the guy who just beat Curry Todd (R), himself a basket case who was stealing his opponents’ signs himself. http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/14/tennessee-lawmaker-resigns-amid-allegations/97890538/


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 12:11 pm

      Looks like the caucus is a basket case. Is this the third recent story?


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • Son_of_the_South February 14, 2017 at 4:15 pm

        No, this is a Lovell problem. After Todd lost I talked to a very plugged-in friend of mine who was sad he had lost. Given that he was such a mess, I asked why she was sad about it. She then informed me exactly why Lovell was much worse than Todd, including these allegations and some very shady business dealings.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 12:28 pm

    NY-Corruption: Even Mayor deBlasio’s defense lawyers raise ethics questions!
    http://nypost.com/2017/02/13/the-corruption-cloud-over-mayor-de-blasio-just-got-darker/

    Mayor deBlasio admitted that not only does he need cash to cover the lawyers’ fees (and will start a legal defense fund for himself), he has yet to pay any of the bills he’s already gotten. Plus, he might not even disclose what those bills are, since they’re for his personal defense and will be paid for with private money. The problem is the law firm that’s been extending deBlasio this line of credit with yet unpaid for legal services also lobbies New York City on behalf of their other clients.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • StatenIslandTest February 14, 2017 at 5:42 pm

      Looks more and more like he’d be one and done but only with the right challenger.


      31, Jersey City

  • Manhatlibertarian February 14, 2017 at 12:32 pm

    A NY Times upshot article has some interesting info about the 870 Article III Federal Court judgeships. To begin with, Obama has appointed about 40% of the federal judges. He appointed many women and minorities, so much so, that for the first time a slim majority of active federal judges are no longer white men.

    Although there are now 112 vacant federal judgeships (and more surely will occur each year), the article points out that judges over 70 who have served a certain amount of years can opt for full retirement if they want but many take “senior status” where they hear a reduced number of cases. However, if they take “senior status” it still creates a vacancy to be filled. The article author points out that if all judges eligible for senior status take it in Trump’s first term and you add that to the number of projected non “senior status” vacancies, Trump could appoint about half the federal judiciary in his first term. Of course not all judges will opt to do that, but a number likely will, so Trump will still be able to appoint a substantial chunk of federal judges in his first term.

    As I have pointed out in previous posts, since the Dems don’t control the POTUS, Congress or most state governments, their strategy is to use Dem State AGs to file lawsuits against Trump Admin actions/policies with sympathetic liberal federal judges to block these actions/policies. This is a strategy that if it is used effectively could block a lot of Trump Admin actions/policies.
    So one would think with the AG slot now filled there would be quick action in this area but with this Admin you never know.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/14/upshot/trump-poised-to-transform-american-courts.html?_r=0

    • rdelbov February 14, 2017 at 2:07 pm

      Trump IMO is likely to have 4 years of GOP senate control so the “Thurmond” rule will not likely apply so he will likely be able to confirm judges up to November 2020!
      Nuclear option is over so Trump will be able to confirm his circuit and district court judges. Here are some other juicy tidbits

      1. Judicial conference recommends 5 new Circuit (9th circuit ) and 42 new district judges. Not judges have been added since 2009 and this could add to the Trump numbers

      2. State courts have been loaded with conservative judges by GOP governors. Plus there is a ton of Bush43 judges and US Attorneys who could fill spots.

      3. The downside is that Trump will have to wheel and deal some in states with D senators. That is where the “so called judge” from WA state got his appointment. Trump or rather Sessions will have to work with D senators from NY-CA-FL to get some appointments filled. They will alternate or pick one of three Ds from a selection panel. District judge picks are like that.

      4. Don’t be concerned about the lack of nominations after 3 weeks. GOP senators are actively working on this. I understand that TN picks are already being discussed among congressman and senators.

      • The Emperor February 14, 2017 at 2:46 pm

        Why does he need to wheel and deal? The Reid Rule allows the GOP to confirm anyone that gets 50 votes + Pence. No more Robarts. Appoint Scalia, Thomas, and Gorsuch clones to every court


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

        • rdelbov February 14, 2017 at 4:09 pm

          The GOP supposedly will honor the blue slip tradition for district court judges. In more pleasant times GOP or D senators(of the opposite party) approached district court nominees in mostly a pleasant way. If a judge was a well respected jurist-if even from the other party-the senator would let the nominee from the other party go through.

          D senators during the Reagan then Bush-Bush era started insisting not just advice and consent on district judges but approval. Many created commissions stacked with their political pals who then suggested liberal district judges for Reagan or the Bushes to nominate. Well many R senators, but not all, went along with this. No one played hard ball like the CA, WA and NY D senators. Simply put they insisted on rule changes. From advice and consent to my way or the highway.

          This is one reason district court judgeships have drifted to the left. Bush 43 had to bend to appoint some judges–Obama and D senators tried really hard not to bend by doing the opposite for R senators. So IMO Sessions will follow the path of least resistance. He will fill circuit court spots and district court slots where there are two GOP senators 1st. Let the D senators stew over vacanies in NY, CA, WA and elsewhere. Then when the time comes they will make deals.

          • The Emperor February 14, 2017 at 4:34 pm

            Not smart. The Democrats have abandoned all shreds of senatorial decency in the last months. Time to go scorched earth


            male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
            Rubio Republican

          • edtorres04 February 14, 2017 at 4:35 pm

            How much time do you think it will take to fill the slots?
            Also, how does the blue chip policy work in a state like Florida where there is 1 senator from each party? Can Bill Nelson, for example, hold everything up? Do he and Rubio have to agree on a nominee for it to proceed?

            • rdelbov February 14, 2017 at 5:25 pm

              Not as fast we would like! I look for 25 or so circuit spots in 2017-2018 plus 100 district spots. Unless new seats are added soon.

            • Manhatlibertarian February 14, 2017 at 7:44 pm

              The author of the Times article seemed to imply not much would be done on federal judgeships until the Gorsuch nomination was resolved, but RDELBOV has indicated that there is some movement already in a few states on these judgeships. Gorsuch’s nomination could take up to 2 or 3 months to resolve, so it doesn’t make sense to me that little would be done about the other judgeships in the meantime as the article author implies.

              By my count there are 20 states with 2 GOP senators, 18 with 2 Dem Senators and 12 states with one of each. So with the blue slip rule for district court judges in effect, it makes sense to concentrate first on judges from states with 2 GOP senators. I am not sure about how the blue slip rule applies in states with one senator from each party, although I get the impression that someone like Nelson in Fla could hold up everything on the district court judges in his state if he wanted to; maybe someone else knows for sure how this would work in split states.

              You only need to get one district judge to block EOs or legislation nationwide as we have just seen, which is why filling appeals court judgeships needs to be given priority, as they can quickly overrule a district court judge. And my understanding is that the blue slip rule doesn’t apply to appeals court justices anymore, so that should expedite things.

              Media reports will mention someone like Judge Robart was appointed by a GOP Pres, but with the blue slip rule for district courts judgeships, you can’t just look at the party of the president and assume the judge has similar values. I’ve read news articles that have a tone of “Well Robart was appointed by a Repub president and even he blocked the Trump EO on immigration.” From what I have read, Robart is not exactly a conservative GOP type judge on a number of issues.

              • rdelbov February 14, 2017 at 8:35 pm

                Every nominee has to be vetted by the Bar–undergo FBI background checks-supply hundreds of answers to senators/staff of the judiciary committee blah blah blah blah.

                Bush 43 was pretty fast and he had nominees out in May 2001. Obama beat him by having several nominees out in April 2009. Clinton was actually quite slow and did not have any nominees til August 1993! He did have a court appointment in early 1993 and that might have slowed him down.

                Saying that I have never seen as much chatter about judges so I expect action-nominations to come in March or April. With the nuclear option I expect fast action!

  • Ryan_in_SEPA February 14, 2017 at 12:52 pm

    Bad Hombre Kim Jong Un had his brother whacked:

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/14/asia/kim-jong-un-half-brother-death/index.html


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 1:10 pm

      @Ryan CNN? Really? For a story like this you link to them? CNN doesn’t even mention the 2 female assassins or the poison spray!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 1:14 pm

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-rise-and-fall-of-a-k-street-renegade-1487001918

    Fascinating article. Worth a long read.


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 1:24 pm

    Republican senators Cornyn, Blunt, Graham, all looking for full investigation of Flynn and Russia.

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/14/politics/republicans-want-flynn-investigations/index.html?sr=twCNN021417republicans-want-flynn-investigations0508PMStoryLink&linkId=34490379


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 1:34 pm

    https://twitter.com/eorden/status/831569632477716480

    lol. Trump will always keep her because he doesn’t care about lies in the media.


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 1:41 pm

    Great Miles analysis of GA-6.

    http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/2017/02/14/ga06-can-we-handel-a-special-election/


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • rdelbov February 14, 2017 at 5:52 pm

      great analysis

    • krazen1211 February 14, 2017 at 6:02 pm

      That just looks like a redistricting blunder at this point. All the blue areas are in 1 corner, and its repeated through multiple elections.. I don’t see us losing the district for the decade so it won’t be costly, but in 2021 those areas in Dekalb need to be dumped into the 4th district.

      If we are going to go 10-4 in Georgia and not 11-3, they need to run GA-02 up into the Atlanta suburbs around Clayton County.

      • rdelbov February 14, 2017 at 6:13 pm

        Every seat needs a little pain for a map to be 10-4. Price won his part of DeKalb by 54% in 2012 and 53% in 2016. There are some democrats there.

        These suburban voters did not like Trump but 2016 suggests that GOP house, senate and legislative candidates will still run near historical numbers here.

        I do get your point. It needs to be watched in 2021. I personally am satisfied with a 10-4 map in 2021.

  • FiveAngels February 14, 2017 at 1:51 pm

    Three months ago, some people were saying Flynn will veto the idea of Mattis joining Trump Administration in any capacity. And now, Flynn is gone and Mattis is entrenched as perhaps the strongest Cabinet member. Not only that, if Harward is really appointed next NSA, Mattis would have a close ally at the helm of DHS and NSC. More broadly, I see some people on Twitter are pointing out that both Tillerson and Trump Generals are all proteges of Bob Gates. Will Trump’s first term be 2.0 version of Bush’s last few years after Rumsfeld left and Cheney was marginalized?

  • FiveAngels February 14, 2017 at 2:12 pm

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-ukraine-idUSKBN15T2IY?il=0

    Is this the first time Trump admin uttered the words “the return of Crimea”? Btw I’m 30 years old and fully expect the Crimean issue to remain unresolved when I die of natural causes, together with the Israeli-Palestinian peace solution.

  • krazen1211 February 14, 2017 at 2:59 pm

    Interesting. I dislike ‘someone else’ polls, but Merkel is the last head standing from that G7 summit last year.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4224026/Two-thirds-Germans-want-Merkel-ousted-Chancellor.html

    Two thirds of Germans want Angela Merkel ousted as the country’s Chancellor as she suffered her latest hammer blow in the polls.

    Sixty-four percent of citizens want a new face in the hotseat when the nation heads to the polling stations for September’s election, according to the most recent gauge of public opinion.

    • GerGOP February 14, 2017 at 3:30 pm

      It’s frightening. It truly is.
      And the catious negative trash talk the CDU has started last week doesn’t really seem to do anything.

      • The Emperor February 14, 2017 at 3:43 pm

        Considering the FDP is likely to come back into the Bundestag, how high is the AfD likely to go?


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

  • RogueBeaver February 14, 2017 at 3:51 pm

    Uh, you forgot Trudeau.


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 14, 2017 at 4:08 pm

      Yeah, though his approval is tumbling hard.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA February 14, 2017 at 4:09 pm

      Trudeau accomplished what he needed to do… stay on the good side of Trump and make sure Canada is considered one of the good hombres. Based on the coverage and statements, Canada has nothing to worry about.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

      • Son_of_the_South February 14, 2017 at 4:28 pm

        It’s nice to have someone in the White House who is feared on the global stage.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 4:31 pm

    Senate Intel Chair Richard Burr confirms to reporters that investigation into Russia election meddling extends to Trump Transition.

    This isn’t going to end well.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • cer February 14, 2017 at 11:00 pm

      Actually, it probably won’t end that bad either…. stop overblowing this….


      Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Mayor Perk February 14, 2017 at 4:37 pm

    Flynn finds unlikely ally in Ex-Rep. Dennis Kucinich. (?!?!)

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/02/14/kucinich-pins-flynn-leak-on-intel-community-warns-another-cold-war.html


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • segmentation_fault February 14, 2017 at 5:12 pm

      Dennis Kucinich is alt-right.


      En Marche! Make our planet great again!

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 14, 2017 at 5:14 pm

        Everyone who the left doesn’t like at this point is alt-right. Since that’s the case, I might as well identify as alt-right.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • segmentation_fault February 14, 2017 at 5:50 pm

          Actually I make a distinction between alt-right and other types of conservatives. I don’t even know if I would call alt-right a type of conservatism. It’s far-right, but some on the left, like Kucinich and Tulsi Gabbard, seem to have been warped into it.


          En Marche! Make our planet great again!

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 14, 2017 at 6:28 pm

            It seems that this definition of alt-right is basically everyone who thinks overthrowing Assad is a bad idea.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • jncca February 14, 2017 at 11:56 pm

              I call Gabbard and Kucinich alt-left. They have some similarities to the alt-right but of course are pretty far left on other issues.

              The major thread linking all the “alts” is that they disagree not just with Obama’s foreign policy or with Bush’s, but strongly disagree with both, and not just on implementation or effectiveness grounds.


              24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

              • GOPTarHeel February 15, 2017 at 12:25 am

                Good description. Basically if they could reasonably be expected to be featured on Russia Today talking about US foreign policy, they are probably on of those “alts”


                R/NC-4.

                • jncca February 15, 2017 at 1:59 am

                  I think a more succinct way of putting it is “someone who does not agree with the goals that any of our last four presidents (Bush 41, Clinton, Bush 43, Obama) pursued in their foreign policies.” I’d say people like Cynthia McKinney, Dennis Kucinich, Julian Assange, Donald Trump to the extent he has an ideology, Steve Bannon, Ron Paul, and Justin Amash all fit in this group.

                  You could argue that libertarians don’t deserve to be lumped with the alt-right and alt-left because they aren’t apologists for liberal democracy but functionally a libertarian foreign policy achieves the same goals, so I don’t mind grouping them there.


                  24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

                  • HS February 15, 2017 at 8:27 am

                    You are lumping together way too many people with different political beliefs. For example, those four Presidents are not the same. Bush I was a realist, while his son was a Wilsonian internationalist. Obama believed that the US should largely follow the desires of the UN and the international community, and focused almost exclusively on diplomacy. I am not sure Clinton had a consistent foreign policy ideology.

                    • jncca February 15, 2017 at 12:46 pm

                      That’s the point. An “alt” is none of those things.


                      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 14, 2017 at 4:40 pm

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-14/the-political-assassination-of-michael-flynn

    Bloomberg of all publications is out with an editorial expounding the theory that the Flynn takedown is fairly unprecedented, but his highly partisan behavior before the election (especially with the rather crude lock her up speech at the RNC) is allowing the intelligence agencies to get away with the first step in what will likely be a de facto coup against the Trump Administration, which I expect by the end of the year. It will probably end very poorly for everyone on every side.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 14, 2017 at 4:59 pm

      This is of course not a belief that the Trump Presidency will be ended early or that there’s a wide Republican conspiracy to destroy Trump. But rather that intelligence officers often have a very poor grasp of how democracies and governments actually work (significantly worse than FSOs, who also mostly dislike Trump but for very very different reasons). Evan McMullin and his crew legitimately believes they are highly influential and the future of American politics as long as they can dispatch Trump by strategically using the modern left, a horrifying delusion that reminds me of Franz von Papen’s oh-so-brilliant plan to defeat the SDP government in Prussia.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • FiveAngels February 14, 2017 at 6:00 pm

        This Nunes quotes nails it: “First it’s Flynn, next it will be Kellyanne Conway, then it will be Steve Bannon, then it will be Reince Priebus”. Flynn was really the only change agent on the national security team. You will soon have a full consolidation of power over there among the people who wish to proceed like they would in any other Republican administration. And then, inevitably they will go after the domestic advisers, although I think it’s debatable if they will go after Conway or Bannon now. I think Trump made a mistake when he allowed Rice Gates Hadley LLC to staff the administration. Now you have a bunch of people who know each other very well and have no particular personal or political connection to Trump. I thought Tillerson was an inspired pick, but then he went off rails suggesting Abrams as his deputy, meaning Trump might have as well offered the SoS job to McCain.

        Republican foreign policy establishment ran against Trump in the primary and he should have punished them by co-opting Democrats who were both anti-Bush and anti-Obama like Webb and Gabbard, and who would owe him loyalty because they could never go back to the other side after working for him.

        • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 6:38 pm

          That’s insane. The best way for Trump to survive is to get #NeverTrump neocons and suburban Republicans to buy MAGA hats. Democrats have made it clear they have no interest in working with Trump on anything (even things that Trump agrees with them on). Trump’s best course of action is to govern like a conventional conservative Republican on both foreign and domestic policy.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 14, 2017 at 6:46 pm

            The problem is that some of the #NeverTrump neocons are truly NeverTrump. Someone like McMullin and his type are simply too deranged to ever support Trump or anyone who isn’t exactly like them. And the same goes to someone on the other side like Amash.

            So the smartest thing he can do is be realist, but reliably Republican. Alienating Justin Amash is fine, but alienating Rand Paul isn’t. Alienating McMullin is okay, but alienating Marco Rubio isn’t. There is simply no room for error.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • rdelbov February 14, 2017 at 7:06 pm

              I suspect the true Never Trump bloc of voters who will never be Trump probably only exceeds the Never D establishment candidate (in others they are voting for Jill Stein) by a small margin.

              I think Trump is on a path to repeat his 2016 performance. Not sure he has lost any lower income voters while some Rs clearly have come home.

              • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 14, 2017 at 7:11 pm

                I mean, Jill Stein did better than Evan McMullin. So yeah, that’s probably right. There’s simply nothing to be gained in trying to massage the Evan McMullins and Bill Kristols of the world and much more to be gained by trying to woo the Marco Rubios and Rob Portmans of the world.


                I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • FiveAngels February 14, 2017 at 6:58 pm

            Well, it depends on your point of view. I didn’t post here during the primaries but I was an early Trump supporter and I’m someone who thinks that conventional conservative Republicanism on foreign and domestic policy is not only electorally suicidal (completely ignoring the economic interests and cultural affinities of your voting base is not a good electoral strategy) but also can produce endless policy disasters, which the Bush administration amply proved. If he’s going to be just another Republican, he might as well quit now and go back to his old life and let Pence handle the next Iraq and economic crisis…

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 14, 2017 at 7:01 pm

              There’s a LOT of ideological ground between Donald Trump and Elliot Abrams though. Even an establishment thinker who wouldn’t alienate suburban moderates, someone like Richard Haas, would be a massive rebuke to the neoconservatives. You don’t have to go full-Bannon to think Iraq was a disaster.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • HS February 14, 2017 at 7:40 pm

                True. My problems with Abrams were: on a personal level, he was already arrogant and unfriendly, and like other Bushies, he wasn’t going to rock the boat by purging or re-educating leftists from State. The fact that he was a Wilsonian internationalist bothered me little, since he was only a Deputy. He also went overboard in attacking Trump, but I felt that was up to them to judge.

                There is nothing new with cooperating with other factions in your party to govern. The weird people are those like Bill Kristol, who has gone off the deep end in his hatred of Trump, and refuse to cooperate. Even Paulists I can make nice with, although I don’t want them anywhere near in control of the foreign policy levers.

            • krazen1211 February 14, 2017 at 7:46 pm

              This R on R sniping is bugging me. There are a lot of shadow parasites in government that will attach any Republican administration. Trump more than most (and he is less prepared for it and needs to shape up).

              There are various EPA goons that are basically planning a mutiny according to some stories. I have no idea how true they are, but we need to be really prepared with civil service reform and similar things.

              • The Emperor February 14, 2017 at 8:19 pm

                We have to repeal the Pendleton Act, and then fire the Deep State en masse


                male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
                Rubio Republican

            • Manhatlibertarian February 14, 2017 at 8:31 pm

              Although I was never a Trump supporter, I did like his criticism of our intervention in the Iraq War. I’m afraid of the McCain/Graham and Bushite allies attempt to push Trump into a more interventionist foreign policy in the Mideast and escalating conflict with Russia. Frankly there just aren’t that many “good guys” on either side in Syria when you get right down to it, so we need to take a more balanced approach; look what happened in Iraq when we took out “bad guy” Hussein. I would be pleased if Webb got a Defense type position in the Trump Administration because I think he has the right approach.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 14, 2017 at 7:22 pm

      A Week article excoriating both Flynn and Flynn’s ouster reiterates the point. http://theweek.com/articles/680068/americas-spies-anonymously-took-down-michael-flynn-that-deeply-worrying

      It’s an intelligence disaster in many ways. For one, there is now going to be a strong continent of the GOP that is simply not going to shed a single tear if a President Bernie Sanders simply declares war on the entire intelligence community. I’m actually a national security hawk, but I’ll gladly take schadenfreude in a Democratic president tearing IC entrails out.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • RogueBeaver February 14, 2017 at 4:41 pm

    DNC: Perez claims 180/224 votes needed. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/tom-perez-democratic-national-committee-votes-235016


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • Son_of_the_South February 14, 2017 at 4:49 pm

      Well, crap. We need the Bernie people to win something big, or Obama and Co. will be able to maintain control of the party and combine forces with OFA.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • segmentation_fault February 14, 2017 at 5:15 pm

        Most of the people voting are party insiders. Like superdelegates. So this is not really a surprising outcome. I’m sure they will complain about how it was #rigged.


        En Marche! Make our planet great again!

        • Manhatlibertarian February 14, 2017 at 8:42 pm

          Yeah I suspect that in the end Perez will win and some of the Bernie people will cry foul (as in “It’s rigged I tell you, it’s rigged!”)

  • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 5:03 pm

    MI-Sen: Kid Rock for Senate?

    No really this could be a thing:
    http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/kid-rock-eyed-as-potential-senate-candidate


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Republican Michigander February 14, 2017 at 9:48 pm

      “””All you bastards at the IRS”””

      Not my first choice for senate, but I’d vote for a box of rocks over Stabenow. Kid Rock is a lot of things, but idiot is not one of them.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • krazen1211 February 14, 2017 at 5:50 pm

    CO-Gov. We have a candidate.

    http://www.denverpost.com/2017/02/13/republican-victor-mitchell-announces-2018-bid-for-colorado-governor/

    Victor Mitchell, a former state lawmaker, became the first notable Republican to enter the 2018 Colorado governor’s campaign, pledging to inject $3 million from his own pocket into what is expected to be a crowded race.

  • Son_of_the_South February 14, 2017 at 7:39 pm

    UK: Labour now polling THIRD among working-class voters!

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-third-most-popular-party-working-class-voters-behind-tories-ukip-latest-yougov-poll-stoke-by-a7578641.html

    Labour is apparently on course to lose the Copeland by-election. Door-to-door surveys there show that they’ve lost 30% of their 2015 vote in that constituency. In Stoke, they’re barely keeping up with UKIP and their candidate just had a scandal break about some old tweets that were insulting to women. At this rate I’m not sure that we’ll see Corbyn fight the next general election.


    23, R, DC-AL
    Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 14, 2017 at 8:46 pm

    Hmm, well, I’ve been grousing asking what Paul Ryan has been doing. A friend explained it to me and I’ve grown a lot more sympathetic to him. He’s been desperately trying to save a dying tax plan, as detailed in this article.

    http://thehill.com/homenews/house/319588-ryan-tries-to-save-tax-plan

    The short story is, they know they can’t get Democratic support for any GOP tax plan that doesn’t dramatically raise taxes and have a carbon tax plan and stuff. So budget reconciliation has to be used. But it can only be used if the budget is scored as revenue neutral (with dynamic scoring). And that cannot be accomplished apparently without some kind of border-adjustment tax (which almost every country on Earth, including Mexico, China, and almost all of Europe has). And GOP senators are predictably balking at this.

    It is increasingly likely that GOP intransigients may end up torpedoing the best hope for GOP tax reform in decades. I really wouldn’t be surprised if this Congress was unable to pass any tax or Obamacare reform, we get a huge Democratic wave that sweeps the GOP out of the House, and then we get a Democratic House that does nothing except repeatedly trying to impeach President Trump.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • The Emperor February 14, 2017 at 11:02 pm

      We can’t forget how much of a strength having a President of your party is. He and Pence could push enough to unite enough of the caucus to do their job and pass Trump approved legislation. Hell, Ted Cruz has fallen in line and isn’t showboating. That shows things have changed.


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 14, 2017 at 9:01 pm

    Take this for what you will. One report says that Michael Flynn may have been knifed by Obama hold-over loyalists because he was “openly critical of the Iranian nuclear agreement” and “was preparing to publicize many of the details…that had been intentionally hidden by the Obama administration as part of its effort to garner support for the deal.”

    http://www.dailywire.com/news/13484/bombshell-flynn-allegedly-targeted-obama-loyalists-frank-camp

    I have no actual opinion on the Iran Deal as policy besides finding Tom Cotton’s letter about it both factually correct (from a legal standpoint) and amusing. But this would be very interesting from an electoral perspective because if this is the case, I think it will only solidify Republican support for Trump and give Mike Flynn the GOP support he could never garner.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 9:04 pm

    Unofficial election results from the NYC Council election can be found here:
    https://enrweb.boenyc.us/


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Son_of_the_South February 14, 2017 at 9:22 pm

      Damn. Simmons only got 5%, and half of that was on the Rent Is Too Damn High line. I didn’t expect her to win or even get close, but 5%? Jeez


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • shamlet February 14, 2017 at 9:33 pm

        Well 6% is the GOP baseline in the district… so all in all she didn’t do that badly. Important thing is Perkins won and we should hopefully have a little more Senate wiggle room the rest of the year for what little that’s worth.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Manhatlibertarian February 14, 2017 at 9:55 pm

          Yeah the Perkins State Senate seat will likely be vacant for several months and possibly even to November, depending on when Cuomo calls the special election. The latest line up in the NY State Senate is GOP Conference 32, Mainstream Dem Conference 22, IDC 8 and 1 vacancy. So this gives the GOP a little more breathing room for the rest of this legislative session, in case one of their members dies, resigns etc.

      • Izengabe February 14, 2017 at 10:06 pm

        I’m shocked Simmons did that well. Finding 513 Republicans in Harlem is a real feat! GOP didnt have a candidate here in 2013 and in 2009 GOP candidate got 1,892 votes out of 30,000 cast.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Manhatlibertarian February 14, 2017 at 9:41 pm

    Well in the last election Protestants actually picked up a little in the Senate. According to Wikipedia, 58% of the Senate is Protestant, 24% Catholic, 8% Jewish, 6% Mormon, 3% Unaffiliated and 1% Buddhist. The new Protestant Senators are Harris (Cal), Van Hollen (Md),Kennedy (La),Young (Ind), and Hassan (NH) (and Strange (Ala) if you want to include newly appointed senators). There is only 1 new Catholic Senator, Cortez-Masto of Nevada, and Catholics suffered a net loss of 2 senators. Jews and Mormons each lost a senator. Unaffiliated picked up 1 Senator, Duckworth of Ill (the other 2 Unaffiliated are Bennet of Colo and Baldwin of Wis).

    Don’t know if this signifies anything since most people don’t vote based on religion these days IMO. According to Pew Research polls Catholics have declined as a percent of the US population, so perhaps it is not that surprising that the percent of Catholic senators has also. On the other hand mainstream Protestants have also declined, though not Evangelicals. Let’s see what happens in the next election, or if these results are just “noise”.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religious_affiliation_in_the_United_States_Senate

  • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 9:50 pm

    In case you thought the deep state is going to let Trump govern…

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/14/us/politics/russia-intelligence-communications-trump.html

    The Manafort excuse in the article is pretty solid.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • GOPTarHeel February 14, 2017 at 9:52 pm

      I don’t see a single new allegation in this article. Maybe I’m missing something though.


      R/NC-4.

      • Manhatlibertarian February 14, 2017 at 10:05 pm

        No I agree. I’ve seen all this stuff before and so far nothing solid. We’ll see.

      • MikeFL February 14, 2017 at 10:35 pm

        I think it’s just confirming that there were contacts between Russian officials and his campaign. Wasn’t it just speculation before?


        26 | FL-3/-16 | FisCon

        • GOPTarHeel February 14, 2017 at 10:49 pm

          No this was all in the January report from the NYT. Maybe what’s new is that Spicer appeared to deny those contacts again at today’s press briefing. Deep State gonna Deep State.


          R/NC-4.

  • Republican Michigander February 14, 2017 at 9:53 pm

    RE – MI Sec of State

    I don’t expect Benson to get a free pass for the dems. I’m hearing former state rep and current Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum may go for it. I’d keep an eye to see what Lisa Brown (Oakland Clerk) decides to do.

    On the R side, I haven’t heard Chatfield’s name yet, but names I’m hearing besides Kowall are Shelby Twp Clerk Stan Grot in Macomb County, and State Senator Judy Emmons, and one other possible name I can’t mention yet. Convention do the nomination.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 9:59 pm

    GOP candidate Anne Neu currently leads with 54.42% of the vote in the Minnesota Representative special election for District 32B

    21% in


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 10:01 pm

      57-43 5/14 precincts in


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 10:06 pm

        54-46 43% in. 6/14 precincts


        28, M, R, NY-10

      • rdelbov February 14, 2017 at 10:08 pm

        not quite done yet but feeling better.

    • Mike1965 February 14, 2017 at 10:12 pm

      FWIW Trump won this District 60-31%


      "Don't believe everything you read on the Internet" - Abraham Lincoln

      • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 10:16 pm

        9/14 precincts in, Rep is up by 7 points.


        28, M, R, NY-10

        • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 10:35 pm

          11/14 precincts in. Rep only up by 5 points. ~270 votes.


          28, M, R, NY-10

          • sane_voter February 14, 2017 at 10:39 pm

            Looking at the 2014 results for comparison, of the three precincts yet to report, in 2014 they voted
            GOP/Dem
            794-464
            476-457
            793-637
            The same DFL candidate was running then, and the GOP won by 11.5%


            Fiscal conservative, S. Fla

            • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 10:44 pm

              Thanks!


              28, M, R, NY-10

              • sane_voter February 14, 2017 at 10:52 pm

                In 2014 the 11 precincts already reporting had a GOP margin of 10.8%, while the three outstanding precincts had a margin of 14.0%


                Fiscal conservative, S. Fla

                • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 11:06 pm

                  13/14 precincts in. Rep up 52-48, by ~280 votes.

                  Trump is president. Get used to RS underperforming in special elections.


                  28, M, R, NY-10

                  • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 11:07 pm

                    With Lent Township left to report in MN HD 32B, Anne Neu’s lead should hold. In both ’12 & ’14, it was the most R-friendly precinct #mnleg


                    28, M, R, NY-10

                  • w920us February 14, 2017 at 11:34 pm

                    The Democrats started suffering massive deterioration in support in December and January after Obama’s coronation in 2008 and with soaring approval ratings.

                    On the other hand, We are witnessing a slight decline in support in this one special, after seeing our nominee for Prez actually losing the popular vote and with his approval ratings underwater. Just one example but so far not bad.


                    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
                    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

                    • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 14, 2017 at 11:47 pm

                      How did the GOP congressional candidate do in that district? It’s also possible that the GOP downballot and Donald Trump are actually still unmoored to each other.


                      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                    • Greyhound February 14, 2017 at 11:52 pm

                      Yeah, but those seats were ones the Ds had no business holding in the first place. The GOP doesn’t hold many D+10 seats anywhere.


                      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

                    • w920us February 14, 2017 at 11:54 pm

                      These were specials for heavy democratic legislative seats.


                      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
                      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

                    • Greyhound February 14, 2017 at 11:58 pm

                      @VBKC This is Chisago County I think? Mills did pretty good here both times.


                      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

                • sentinelrules February 14, 2017 at 11:07 pm

                  MN GOP were already crowing about Neu’s victory several hours ago.

                  https://twitter.com/PatGarofalo/status/831689066668236800

  • MosheM February 14, 2017 at 11:19 pm

    Exclusive: IRS won’t reject returns that don’t report on insurance, kneecapping individual mandate https://t.co/n2UM3zUMpw @petersuderman


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Son_of_the_South February 14, 2017 at 11:28 pm

      Your move, Deep State.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • indocon February 15, 2017 at 12:08 am

        This was easy one. The people who were paying the penalty were self employed people who could not afford O’care exchange plans, more likely they were our voters. Good first step.

      • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 12:12 am

        Lol


        28, M, R, NY-10

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