Political Roundup for February 15, 2017

Election News:  Republican Anne Neu won the Minnesota State House special election for seat 32B last night.  Democratic State Senator Bill Perkins won a vacant City Council seat in Harlem as well.  Now for the rest of the roundup…

President/National

Flyover Country:  In case some of our readers were wondering as they are worrying about President Trump from their homes on the respective flanks of the country, Trump is still popular in middle America.

Obamacare:  As I predicted months ago, the Republicans are running into serious internal issues regarding the repeal of Obamacare.  If a repeal happens at all, you got to wonder if it will take as long as it took the Democrats to pass Obamacare.

DNC:  Tom Perez claims to have enough votes to win the race for DNC Chairman.  A Perez win would continue Obama control of the DNC.

SBA:  Linda McMahon was confirmed as SBA Director.  She received strong support from both parties by today’s standards.

MI-Sen:  With a dearth of interested candidates, Republicans in Michigan are floating the idea of Kid Rock running for US Senate.  Crazy to think that Kid Rock as a candidate is not that far outside the realm of possibility.

States

Women:  The number of women in state legislative seats has reached 25% of the total membership with women controlling state legislative chambers also reaching an all time high.

Voting Laws:  As often seen in life, when your side cannot win on the merits, you challenge the rules.  Democrats are now focusing their political rage on the election rules as a source of their defeat.

International

UK:  Ahead of two key byelections, the Labour Party appears poised to lose two seats and potentially impair Jeremy Corbyn’s “leadership” of the Labour Party.

 

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152 Comments

  • RogueBeaver February 15, 2017 at 7:08 am

    FL-SEN: Bold Progressives thinking of challenging Nelson. http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2017/02/some-democrats-not-so-sure-nelson-can-win-against-changing-electorate-scott-in-2018-senate-contest-109614


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • rdelbov February 15, 2017 at 8:34 am

      Yup Nelson and even Graham on the top of the ticket is so 1992 for Florida. Dull moderates who take wishy washy stands–Obama 2008 is the model for a win for the Ds in Florida. Motivate AA,hispanic and young voters.

  • MikeFL February 15, 2017 at 7:58 am

    Morning Consult polls 2020:

    Generic D: 43, Trump: 35
    Trump: 42, Warren: 36

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/poll-trump-democrats-elizabeth-warren-235026


    26 | FL-3/-16 | FisCon

  • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 8:00 am

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/831840306161123328

    Information is being illegally given to the failing @nytimes & @washingtonpost by the intelligence community (NSA and FBI?).Just like Russia

    When is the purge coming?


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • rdelbov February 15, 2017 at 8:35 am

    A win is a win–narrow GOP win in MN cheers me up. MN Rs are doing great winning state rep races in Florida

    • Tekzilla February 15, 2017 at 8:37 am

      It cheers you up that the GOP won a special election in a Trump/Romney seat by a far smaller spread than Trump or Romney? Why do I have the feeling this wouldn’t have been your reaction if the parties were flipped.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 8:41 am

        The Rep only won here by 1 point in 2012. Klobuchar won it by 22 points. It’s a lot more Dem than at first glance.


        28, M, R, NY-10

        • Tekzilla February 15, 2017 at 8:59 am

          She also won statewide by 35 points, both things I am well aware of. The point still stands that the reaction doesn’t make any sense considering the facts.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • cer February 15, 2017 at 9:11 am

            You are just spinning another Dem loss like Democrats do so well these days.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

            • Left Coast Libertarian February 15, 2017 at 10:14 am

              Sean Davis ‏@seanmdav 9h9 hours ago
              In 2012, the Republican barely got 50% and won by only 400 votes. He got 55% in the 2014 wave.

              If you’re going to compare, compare to how he did in past elections.

      • GOPTarHeel February 15, 2017 at 9:10 am

        If Republicans had narrowly lost a Obama/Clinton or double Obama seat where they were historically competitive (I guess this would be somewhere in New England) during a Democratic presidency then I would be fairly pleased at the performance but not overly so. The out-party should be winning seats like these. Are you thrilled? How happy can you be with a fairly standard loss?


        R/NC-4.

    • Upstater22 February 15, 2017 at 8:50 am

      I agree with you, rdel. There’s been a bit of hand-wringing (on the right) and a bit of optimism (on the left) due to the margin. But everyone seems to be ignoring that this was a special election after the incumbent Republican had a residency scandal. Voters have shown in the past that they react negatively to residency issues (Pat Roberts, Richard Lugar) and scandals. I remember in NY back in 2011: Republican Chris Lee won NY-26 by 48 points in 2010 then after he resigned, Democrat Kathy Hochul won the district by 5. And who could forget Republican Bob Turner picking up Anthony Weiner’s seat (who won by 22 points) after Weiner resigned.

      All in all, Republicans held onto a seat when the previous Republican was forced out due to a scandal, when the Republican candidate had much less time to organize and campaign, when Democratic anti-Trump fever is at a high point, and when Democrats (by all accounts) went all out to win this seat to prove that they have some momentum and support. And the Republican still won.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • cer February 15, 2017 at 9:18 am

        In regards to the above statement…. ouch!

        I agree Upstater22, when the Dems go all in even in a special election, and still lose under these conditions, the Democrats clearly still don’t get it. What Democrats need to start asking themselves, why do we keep on losing, and until they do that, guess what, they will continue to lose.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • rdelbov February 15, 2017 at 9:59 am

          A win is a win! Not at all excited by the margin–Specials are funny like that. The margins mean little. I hate to back to 1981 but Mike Oxley won a special in his seat by a very narrow margin. He then held that seat easily for years. The D candidate was motivated in 32B while the GOP was a bit shell-shocked due to primary and candidate woes. We could have easily lost this seat and it would be held up as proof that Trump is failing to hold suburban voters?

          I don’t know where each candidate lived but I suspect the D did well in her home area.In a 7000 vote election just having alot of friends, family and neighbors for you can make a difference. Not faulting or excusing the GOP but in low turnout specials hometown heros can sneak in.

          So IMO its a whew moment for the GOP and a win is a win.

          • krazen1211 February 15, 2017 at 11:04 am

            Special elections are often isolated and sometimes odd cases. We lost the PA-12 special in May 2010 in a Kerry-McCain district, and lost it again in November 2010. It didn’t really reflect the mood of the country in the 2010 wave.

            GA-06 will be something to watch just because of how that district moved, but its not that dissimilar to how PA-12 moved above (relative to the country, PA-12 stampeded right). I am not going to conclude much even if we win it by the standard 15-20 point margin, although it might be somewhat alarming if we flat out lose it.

          • Republican Michigander February 15, 2017 at 11:47 am

            That’s what I always say with a special. A win is a win. It’s extremely low turnout, and often targeted by local parties due to nothing else leading the ticket. Three major factors in specials are absentees (often seniors), school related voters, and municipal related voters. Seniors lean R now (wasn’t always the case), but the latter two lean more democrat and are professionals in low turnout off elections. They know what they are doing. If the ballot is shared with a school millage and the elections is against the party in power, then it gets even more interesting. Scott Brown won in a special. Charles Djou won in a special. Joseph Cao won in a special. Going the other way, so did Travis Childers, Bill Foster, and Don Cazayoux.

            Right after I became LCRP Chair, I had a county commission special I had to deal with in 2013 in what would have probably be considered borderline safe/likely R district. Trump and Romney won it easily. McCain won it barely. Levin and Stabenow won it. The R was a former commissioner. The opponent was a recently elected D township trustee (who was unopposed – I wasn’t chair then). We were nervous. The D worked hard. A libertarian was also running a strong internet campaign. In the end, we won by about 17%, but only had about 53%. The LP candidate took about 9% of the vote. Was I nervous about this race going in? Damn right I was. Luckily our commissioner worked extremely hard and earned his spot. We weren’t going to get caught looking and had a good candidate. His wins have been much easier ever since.


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

            • rdelbov February 15, 2017 at 12:25 pm

              One reason I am happy about the MN house race is that it gives the GOP a 77-57 edge heading into the 2018 elections. The GOP actually gained 3 seats. The house seats are nested in senate seats so the GOP actually has a bit of an edge (senate is 34-33) over the upper house numbers. So I am hopeful that the GOP will hold the house in 2018(no state senate elections in MN in 2018) and another seat or two is always possible.

              +10 seems more of a hurtle for the Ds to overcome then +9 so yes every seat counts. IMO the GOP incumbent will be able to build her 1st win and hold this seat

          • GoBigRedState February 15, 2017 at 12:31 pm

            The D candidate, Laurie Warner also ran in 2014. In a low turnout special election against a Republican making her first bid for public office, she increased her vote share from 44.2% in 2014 to 46.7% this time. That’s not a huge increase. People seeing this as some kind of backlash against Trump are really desperate to look for anything.


            45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants #RIP27

    • MikeFL February 15, 2017 at 9:47 am

      Actually surprised about Mast, in light of how much Trump won the district by.


      26 | FL-3/-16 | FisCon

      • BostonPatriot February 15, 2017 at 11:48 am

        Mast is on there for fundraising. National donors will give to a program supporting a Hispanic double-amputee Iraq vet. But yeah, there are probably at least a dozen seats that should come before his.

  • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 10:57 am

    Mattis has no issue pushing the Trump agenda.

    https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/831889204900671490


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • WingNightAlone February 15, 2017 at 11:01 am

      Good. Most of NATO is whiny deadweight.


      25. Saint John-Rothesay. Financial services sales manager. Blue Tory.

    • GOPTarHeel February 15, 2017 at 11:17 am

      This isn’t really the Trump agenda-pushing our European allies to finally live up to the 2% spending commitment has been US policy for decades.


      R/NC-4.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 11:19 am

        There is a difference though between politely requesting and actually pushing. After all, Obama technically opposed the Iranian nuclear program.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • indocon February 15, 2017 at 11:08 am

    The real bellwether election for post 2016 will be GA 6, at this point what do folks here believe the cut off will be for our side to panic, kind of worry, or business as usual? Me thinking a narrow victory for our side is fine, if you had told me post 2008 that Republicans failed to win a open seat in which McCain had won, well guess what you would have concluded from that?

    • GOPTarHeel February 15, 2017 at 11:18 am

      The Murtha special election in 2010 didn’t tell us much about the next election though.


      R/NC-4.

      • segmentation_fault February 15, 2017 at 11:33 am

        It didn’t tell us what would happen nationally, but Dems held that seat in 2010 after winning the special. Same with NY-21.


        En Marche! Make our planet great again!

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 11:17 am

    Whoa. Even John Podhoretz, leading neoconservative thinker and editor of Commentary, is condemning the intelligence people involved in this. That actually surprises me. http://nypost.com/2017/02/14/why-you-should-fear-the-leaks-that-felled-mike-flynn/

    The IC may have just thrown away in one week, seventy years of Republican goodwill.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • GOPTarHeel February 15, 2017 at 11:22 am

    Neat data visualizations of North Carolina voter registrations from the State Board of Elections. https://public.tableau.com/profile/ncsbe#!/


    R/NC-4.

    • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 11:41 am

      How did we perform in the latest stats?


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • aggou February 15, 2017 at 11:48 am

        They’ve been cutting non-active voters recently, but D’s have lost much more than Republicans.

    • rdw72777 February 15, 2017 at 4:47 pm

      Do you know does NC do their SoS data publishing stuff in-house or do they hire it out? they have the best stats/data/maps of any state by a country mile and if it was outsourced it’d be great to know the name of the firm who does this work.

      • shamlet February 15, 2017 at 4:49 pm

        I think that it’s run by Clarity Elections, if my memory serves, but GOPTH may now better.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • segmentation_fault February 15, 2017 at 5:00 pm

        Except the maps aren’t accurate… there’s a file with accurate data but the maps mostly show precincts without early votes added in (which makes them much more Republican).


        En Marche! Make our planet great again!

  • Son_of_the_South February 15, 2017 at 11:41 am

    So… I found the UK equivalent of DRA!

    http://boundaryassistant.org

    Thanks to Scottish Socialist for the original link that helped me find it.


    23, R, DC-AL
    Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Upstater22 February 15, 2017 at 11:45 am

    Yeah I found that the other day when it was posted. The only thing I couldn’t find was a way to color districts by election results like you can do in DRA.


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

  • dforston February 15, 2017 at 11:51 am

    Arab NATO possible with Israel not as a member but cooperating? – https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-middle-east-allies-explore-arab-military-coalition-1487154600 – Like the idea

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 11:54 am

    It is quite amusing to see what the Mainstream Media’s gameplan going forward is. I become simultaneously more amused and more perplexed everytime I try to read this.

    https://twitter.com/sallykohn/status/831871003412295682

    @sallykohn
    Straightforward from here:
    1. Impeach Trump & Pence
    2. Constitutional crisis
    3. Call special election
    4. Ryan v Clinton
    5. President Clinton


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Left Coast Libertarian February 15, 2017 at 2:07 pm

      There’s nothing Trump has done that rises to impeachable and there is certainly nothing Mike Pence has done either. Setting that aside, she really needs to study the Constitution. There is no mechanism for a special election. There is a regularly scheduled election in November 2020. Nothing before then.

    • MikeFL February 15, 2017 at 3:06 pm

      I mean even if Trump was impeached, how would they get Pence? With this entire Flynn episode, what we do know is that even if there happens to be something there with the Russia stuff, he’s not in the loop.


      26 | FL-3/-16 | FisCon

  • shamlet February 15, 2017 at 11:59 am

    GA-6: Betty Price is out. https://twitter.com/kwingfieldajc/status/831908125020143617


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 12:00 pm

    Rep. Betty Price announces from the state House floor that she is declining to pursue her husband’s seat in Congress.


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • w920us February 15, 2017 at 12:43 pm

    Trump is meeting with Netanyahu now. It’s safe to say that the First Family is the most Jewish First Family we’ve ever had correct?


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • HS February 15, 2017 at 3:11 pm

      Yes. Ivanka, her 3 kids, and one daughter in law and her kids.

      Of course, proportionally speaking, American Jews are more anti-Israel than the entire American population. Because more American Jews lean left, and the left is no longer pro-Israel.

      • MikeFL February 15, 2017 at 5:07 pm

        I think you’re mistaking Israel as not being many left-leaning Jews number one priority as being “anti-Israel.” I have had a lot of Democratic Jewish friends throughout college and law school, and I wouldn’t consider more than one maybe “anti-Israel.”


        26 | FL-3/-16 | FisCon

        • jncca February 15, 2017 at 5:24 pm

          A lot of conservatives have decided that anything to the left of Likud is “anti-Israel.” They can keep saying it if they want. Doesn’t make it true.


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 5:31 pm

            One could argue that Israel is a country much like the United States, divided into camps that utterly despise the other side and their other vision of what the country ought to be. In my opinion, the United States, Turkey, and Israel are all fairly similar on this and I could see India and China progressing down this road in a few decades.

            Which is why both sides in America regularly throw charges of treason at the other. Because the basic beliefs of both groups necessitates completely tearing down the other side’s vision of America.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • Upstater22 February 15, 2017 at 5:45 pm

              I find it interesting how the Left is for Open Borders in the US but hates it in Palestine. Its almost like its just politically motivated…


              Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

          • HS February 15, 2017 at 6:11 pm

            I said what I meant and meant what I said (although what Mike said is also true). An increasing number of left-wingers, both Jews and non-Jews, claim that Israel and it’s settlements, or Netanyahu’s stubbornness, is the reason there has been no talks, or a major reason for the lack of progress. Thus, Israel is at fault. This is simply not true if you look at the basic facts. This alternative fact or fake news was peddled by Obama and Hillary and many others.
            And it is a major talking point of the left. See Kerry’s speech on 2334.

            The real problem is that the Palestinians refuse to make peace with the Israelis. They have had numerous opportunities under more leftist Israelis than Netanyahu. But they continually walk away, and continue to incite violence.

            But you guys will say what you want to say, won’t you? No matter how wrong you are.

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 6:29 pm

              I see this as two distinct branches of Israeli exceptionalism colliding to explain why both sides use words like anti-American or anti-Israel. And I think it applies to electoral politics in both nations.

              The Israeli left views Israel as an exceptional nation with an exceptional moral mission (think tikkun olam) and thus it needs to be repeatedly criticized for human rights issues far far less serious than its neighbors. The Israeli Right views Israel the Jewish state as unique because it’s the only Jewish state and they are Jews. They thus bristle at all the crap Israel gets despite being a democracy with decent minority rights. The first group presumably associates Israel with all kinds of political values (those associated with labour Zionism) while the second group associates it with Jewishness (as an imagined community ala nationalism).

              As a non-Israeli, I am a much larger fan of the second view because their fundamental premise is obviously true (Israel is in fact the only Jewish state).


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 6:49 pm

                You understand too much.


                28, M, R, NY-10

              • HS February 15, 2017 at 7:07 pm

                When someone blames Israel for the lack of peace with the Palestinians – as the left routinely does – when the facts objectively demonstrate the Palestinians are at fault, this is anti-Israel.

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 6:37 pm

              For similar reasons, I find the “Trumpian” version of American exceptionalism (“ie America is unique because its the only country that’s ours!”) hard to reject, while the liberal version of American exceptionalism is simply objectively false (“America is a unique melting pot in the world and has been built primarily by immigration and thus America is great because of illegal immigration”) and only seem plausible to someone who is extremely provincial but fancies themselves extremely cosmopolitan.

              The traditional conservative view is at the very least acceptable, as it seems to mix up the false (“America is a uniquely free, small-government nation”), the true (“Americans are some of the individualistic people in the world!”) , and the politically debatable (“America has been a unique force for good in world history”).


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • MikeFL February 15, 2017 at 7:52 pm

              I don’t dispute that there is a trend in the left toward being more anti-Israel than in previous years, but I just don’t agree with the generalization. I’m also not a Dem, if the “you guys” was supposed to include me.


              26 | FL-3/-16 | FisCon

              • HS February 15, 2017 at 9:14 pm

                Ok. My bad on that (labeling you a Democrat). That was cruel and uncalled for. 😉

                Unfortunately, virtually all Dems seem to blame Israel for the lack of peace. I concede that some may not know the truth, but far too many do, or should, know it.

    • Son_of_the_South February 15, 2017 at 3:11 pm

      By far, as in at all


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • w920us February 15, 2017 at 3:36 pm

        Didn’t Obama have some Jewish connection?


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

        • Izengabe February 15, 2017 at 3:57 pm

          Obama’s half brother was Jewish.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Upstater22 February 15, 2017 at 12:59 pm

    Senate votes for cloture on Mick Mulvaney. 52-48


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • The Emperor February 15, 2017 at 1:03 pm

      Good. Picking Mulvaney shows that Trump is serious about tackling the deficit


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • rdw72777 February 15, 2017 at 5:04 pm

        I’m sure we’ll be re-visiting this comment every year for the next 4 years and sharing a laugh. Bolstering the military while cutting taxes only leaves SocSec and Medicare to cut to have any impact to make up just the net of the military and tax cuts. And we all know that SocSec and medicare aren’t changing…Rubio would never vote to tocuh either and neither would a couple of other GOP Senators. It’s proving hard enough to tackle ACA.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 5:12 pm

          This implies that we can cut taxes.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • rdelbov February 15, 2017 at 1:09 pm

      Can’t believe that we are having to vote cloture on all of these candidates. Mulvaney would coasted through with 98 votes if he was a D! It is not as if he will be budget director for +20 years! He is a cabinet officer with what will likely be a 3 or 4 year DC ticket

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 5:15 pm

      Wow. McCain to vote against Mulvaney for not being sufficiently supportive of increased defense spending. Probably losing Graham too.

      http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/319757-mccain-to-vote-against-trumps-pick-for-budget-chief


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 1:13 pm

    Pudzer is toast.

    https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/831927888974925824

    Top Senate Rs have urged the WH to withdraw Puzder nomination. There are 4 firm no votes and up to 12, source says.


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 1:33 pm

    https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/831929420973735936

    Deep state infighting…


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • indocon February 15, 2017 at 1:41 pm

      Everybody who leaked must be prosecuted to the fullest extent possible, maximum jail times, have all trials in southern or western VA to these kooks get put in by rubes they so despise,

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 1:44 pm

        The problem with that is the next Democratic president is probably going to pardon all of them and they know that.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • WingNightAlone February 15, 2017 at 1:47 pm

      The fact that the deep state is capable of doing what it’s doing right now is the best argument to fire the entire IC-bureaucratic-diplomatic compact and start from scratch. EPA/State/CIA should be utterly purged. The unelected should be terrified to tangle with the elected.

      I can’t believe I’m talking like this. If I went back to 2014 and told myself what I’d be saying now, I’d expect a massive traumatic brain injury.


      25. Saint John-Rothesay. Financial services sales manager. Blue Tory.

  • rdelbov February 15, 2017 at 1:34 pm

    Grumpy press has noticed that Trump is not calling on them.

    https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/831928356383907840/video/1

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 1:37 pm

    Republican NSA vet (and all around wackjob) John Schindler is cheering about how the NSA is apparently going to arrest and imprison Donald Trump.

    https://twitter.com/20committee/status/831872441597194241
    @20committee
    Now we go nuclear. IC war going to new levels. Just got an EM fm senior IC friend, it began: “He will die in jail.”

    Schindler is a dick-pic sending oddball, but he probably is representative of a certain group of people in the IC, so the outlandish-sounding story actually seems vaguely plausible to me. Considering that left-leaning social media seems to be exploding with laments of treason/coup-cheering, and I’ve even seen a few calls for intelligence officials to be executed on my feed, these people need to think really deep and hard about what they might end up doing to our country.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • WingNightAlone February 15, 2017 at 1:44 pm

      Man, Schindler’s weird little conspiracies are always MOMENTS AWAY! The guy is off his rocker. I’m pretty sure he predicted a NATO-Russia hot war over the Donbass ANY MINUTE NOW two years ago. He lays it on thick and, from my uneducated and uninformed perspective, has no actual sources or allies in DC. Trash.


      25. Saint John-Rothesay. Financial services sales manager. Blue Tory.

      • GOPTarHeel February 15, 2017 at 1:47 pm

        Him and Eric Garland look alike, act alike, sprinkle their tweets with ridiculous and unnecessary acronyms, and add nothing of value to any conversation. Boob bait for bobos.


        R/NC-4.

        • WingNightAlone February 15, 2017 at 1:48 pm

          SIGINT!!!!


          25. Saint John-Rothesay. Financial services sales manager. Blue Tory.

          • segmentation_fault February 15, 2017 at 1:54 pm

            You’re triggering me making me think of my failed SIGINT handler….


            En Marche! Make our planet great again!

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 1:47 pm

        We are largely in agreement over Schindler, but he still is an NSA vet, and there are probably some people just as insane as Schindler in the IC. And those people are probably the type who would be in cahoots with the recent leaks.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • WingNightAlone February 15, 2017 at 1:50 pm

          Oh there’s nutjobs there for sure, but if I was leaky IC source I’d be sending info to better newsbreakers than some Habsburg-fetishizing fringe centrist. Until there’s Russian paratroopers landing on Gotland I’m not taking a word from him seriously.


          25. Saint John-Rothesay. Financial services sales manager. Blue Tory.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 1:52 pm

            If either of us were a leaky IC source, we’d know that it was stupid to bank a strategy on getting a President with 95% approval among Republicans impeached and convicted by a Republican congress. That is also why we’d never be leaky IC sources. One thing that 2016 should have taught us is that a lot of people in very high positions of political or policy influence are actually extremely stupid and incompetent, because blatant stupidity, incompetence, and failure are often not punished in the political and public sector.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • WingNightAlone February 15, 2017 at 1:55 pm

              I’d leak to, like, not someone known for twitter pissing matches?


              25. Saint John-Rothesay. Financial services sales manager. Blue Tory.

              • GOPTarHeel February 15, 2017 at 1:56 pm

                Or for sending dick pics via Twitter DMs and losing their job at the Naval War College


                R/NC-4.

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 1:59 pm

                  Pervert alert. @20committee is back on twitter. All girls under the age of 18, block him immediately.


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • indocon February 15, 2017 at 1:50 pm

      The people who are needed to do a coup in US, namely people to man nuclear missiles, fighter pilots, special forces, are overwhelmingly white and male, which makes me think they are vast majority republicans also. You know who else was aware of this….NYT and Obama. Last year you saw a steady flurry of news about need to diversify navy seals and fighter pilots:
      http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/3/air-force-thunderbirds-prioritize-diversity-in-coc/
      http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/08/05/diversity-seals-green-berets/31122851/

      And you who else is aware of this….Trump, he is surrounding himself with not just any generals but ones who are revered by rank and file in uniform.

      Libtards in meantime can keep cranking away at their hashtags.

      • WingNightAlone February 15, 2017 at 1:53 pm

        Yeah. If anyone thinks the Air Force, various special forces, and the FBI are going to do the CIA/State’s hypothetical dirty work they’re wildly mistaken. An actual CIA attempted coup would end with the Pentagon in ruins and Trump at 65% approval.


        25. Saint John-Rothesay. Financial services sales manager. Blue Tory.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 1:57 pm

          Yes, the concept of civilian control of the military is deeply soaked in the bones of every officer in the United States. A successful military coup is not plausible in the United States.

          A pathetically unsuccessful coup however, even though immediately crushed, which then leads to mass street violence, rioting/looting, and a wave of political terrorism is plausible. And that’s a very bad road to go down.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Izengabe February 15, 2017 at 2:00 pm

      This derail is WAY off topic. Stick to elections and lets move on.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 1:54 pm

    Qualifying Ends for the GA-06 SpecialElex with 18 candidates!! (11 R, 5 D and 2 Ind):

    https://www.georgiapol.com/2017/02/15/qualifying-ends-ga-6/


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Izengabe February 15, 2017 at 2:03 pm

      The good news is 5 Democrats! That should make it harder for a nightmare 2 Dems to make it into the top-two. I have to believe Handel is favored to get 1 of the two runoff spots.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • shamlet February 15, 2017 at 3:15 pm

        I think it’s Osoff and Handel, though there are 4 other credible GOP candidates by my count: Hill, Moody, Gray, and Levell.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • rdelbov February 15, 2017 at 2:36 pm

      Handel -Hill IMO are the GOP favorites

  • Izengabe February 15, 2017 at 2:26 pm

    VA-Gov: Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Perriello compares the election of Donald Trump to 9/11:
    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/444932/stop-comparing-trumps-election-911


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • rdelbov February 15, 2017 at 2:35 pm

      I tell you folks Perriello will be tough to be in the D primary. His Obama connections are a huge help with the AA vote–you throw in the progressive DC area voters and there you have it.

    • bluewahoo February 15, 2017 at 3:09 pm

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/im-not-scared-to-be-bold-perriello-defends-progressivism-in-first-big-campaign-rally/2017/02/11/3becf1fa-efa9-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?utm_term=.f99596f2b500

      The headline almost reads as satire.

      His campaign has been pretty rocky so far IMO. Other than his large Jan fundraising, most of what he’s been doing hasn’t been getting the kind of attention he would want. He was, correctly, called out for opposing pipeline projects the Governor has no authority over, he missed the largest NoVa Democrats event all year back in Jan (even the not-yet-announced LG candidate Susan Platt was there), and now this. The GA session ends in 13 days and Northam will be able to resume a heavy campaign schedule; Perriello could have made some better use of the last month for sure. Speaking of, Northam was in Charlottesville this weekend also, where 3 of the 5 city council members have endorsed him.

      • HS February 15, 2017 at 3:14 pm

        I hope he wins. Contrary to some on this site, I am not impressed with his political prowess. Gillespie should defeat him, although VA continues to become more Democrat by the day.

        • rdelbov February 15, 2017 at 4:15 pm

          Oh I think Gillespie would have an easier time beating Pierrello. The ex-congressman is a real progressive while Northam is trying to be afaux or pretend D. the LG is running away from the national D platform. I might ad that even the fight helps the GOP. The more the differences are raised between the two the better for team Red. So it is a win win for the GOP. If Tom P. wins hurrah for our side but if he loses then let’s be thankful for party divisions.

          I also disagree with the idea that the Gov of VA could not hinder or change the course of the natural pipeline. You better he can. We already seen that the AG of WA can sue the federal government about how visas are issued in Amsterdam so if one does not think a Gov could impact how a VA pipeline progresses you don’t understand fully the obstacles he could throw up.

          • segmentation_fault February 15, 2017 at 4:24 pm

            I’m not in favor of Perriello, but it’s worth remembering he held a fairly conservative, rural district in Congress. And when he lost in 2010 it wasn’t a crushing defeat all things considered. I don’t know why assumption seems to be that he is Alan Grayson.


            En Marche! Make our planet great again!

            • Son_of_the_South February 15, 2017 at 4:28 pm

              Well, he’s not Alan Grayson. Still, you don’t have to be Grayson to be too progressive to win. I’m not even saying that he’s too progressive to win. I’m just saying that no one should dismiss his progressivism because he’s not as nutty as Grayson.


              23, R, DC-AL
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • bluewahoo February 15, 2017 at 4:59 pm

              He voted for the Stupak Amendment.

              His “conviction politician” stint ended day one of his campaign when he back tracked that vote.

  • GOPTarHeel February 15, 2017 at 2:32 pm

    Puzder withdraws. Secretary Scott Walker?


    R/NC-4.

    • The Emperor February 15, 2017 at 2:39 pm

      I wouldn’t pick Walker, I’d go for someone known for the pro-worker reforms but not as high profile. Matt Bevin perhaps?


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • GOPTarHeel February 15, 2017 at 2:49 pm

        There are also plenty of competent scandal free restrictionists in DC. I’d look for an EEOC appointee.


        R/NC-4.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 5:02 pm

        We could double down on the whole fast food thing and go for someone like Herman Cain.

        I remain as always, an opponent of the idea of picking successful politicians for these positions because it removes them from their respective states.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 4:30 pm

      At this rate, we’ll never even get to a SecLab nominee. McCain and Graham will just lead us into months of witch-hunts and endless Senate committee hearings while we forget to confirm Gorsuch or pass tax reform before Obamacare just collapses and Democrats take back the Congress.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • indocon February 15, 2017 at 3:31 pm

    Talking about Vigo County, what is the cutoff for our side to win nationally based on what we do in this wonderful county? This year it was 55%, obviously with increased diversity in rest of country that number has to go up a little, I say 58% in 2020.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 4:00 pm

    Robert Harward to replace Flynn. He has worked a lot with Mattis in the past, but his views are unclear. We will probably see what they are based on what the NSC looks like. This could end very well or in total catastrophe.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/vice-admiral-robert-harward-offered-national-security-adviser-job/


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 4:20 pm

    Walker takes his name out of the Lab Sec search.

    https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/831974715736612871


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • MikeFL February 15, 2017 at 5:12 pm

      Not surprising.


      26 | FL-3/-16 | FisCon

  • Jon Henrik Gilhuus February 15, 2017 at 4:27 pm

    I’ve updated the GA resource page with links and names for all 18 candidates: http://rrhelections.com/index.php/rrh-elections-resources-page/georgia-resources/


    The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
    - P.J. O'Rourke

  • rdelbov February 15, 2017 at 4:55 pm

    I guess enough was enough!

    http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/greitens-administration-closes-jay-nixon-state-park/article_1d353f97-8515-5885-9fb3-a1589a413c55.html

    Gov Nixon had a hard time giving things up. He set the date for the legislative election when the new Gov new chief of staff resigned 6 days before Greitens was to be sworn in. Nixon openly lobbied to get to name the new state supreme court justice (the incumbent died in late November) and filled a judicial commission spot that came vacant 5 days before the new Gov was sworn in. Then Nixon make 4 mostly unimproved pieces of state land state parks. One was even named after him. Too cheeky and pushy for me. Its like Obama was nominating people the week he was going to leave office. Sending some names up to the senate for approval on 01/17/17.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 5:44 pm

    Tennessee Democratic Party rebuilding the party through important first steps. Like voting on a resolution to condemn the show “Designated Survivor”.

    https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/831959272741298177


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Son_of_the_South February 15, 2017 at 6:13 pm

      Well, the TN Dems really have nothing else to do. Unless they find an absolute star gubernatorial candidate, they’re pretty much locked out of state government for a few decades, to say nothing of TN federal politics.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • StatenIslandTest February 15, 2017 at 6:26 pm

    Great new site devoted to NJ politics founded by Max Pizarro (formerly PolitickerNJ) and John Graham, a Democratic insurance broker from Essex who was a Hillary fundraiser. Still they seem even-handed and informative for now:

    http://www.insidernj.com/


    31, Jersey City

  • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 7:28 pm

    On @NBCNightlyNews Pete Williams reports that the USG has not confirmed that the Russians in contact with Trump aides were intel officials.

    Deep State also has Republicans, it seems…


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • cer February 15, 2017 at 8:08 pm

      If this turns out to be true, looks like the left’s narrative might be quickly falling apart.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 8:19 pm

      Combined with this, not a good sign.

      https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/832024717699727360


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 8:26 pm

        Maybe Trump is being blackmailed by the same people who leaked against Flynn…


        28, M, R, NY-10

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 15, 2017 at 8:39 pm

          Personally, I think the praise for Harward is an attempt by Trump’s enemies to dissuade him from picking Harward. Unless he sacks everyone on the NSC as his first move, we can safely assume he would be working for Trump and not vice versa


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 8:41 pm

    BREAKING: South Carolina Boeing workers reject representation by Machinists, maintaining Southern reluctance toward unionization.

    Major union defeat that will reverberate.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 8:53 pm

      74-26 landslide. Wow!


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • Son_of_the_South February 15, 2017 at 11:58 pm

        My people are generally suspicious of anyone that they think is trying to sell them an impossibly good outcome.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • MosheM February 15, 2017 at 9:02 pm

    Just WOW if true.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/spies-keep-intelligence-from-donald-trump-1487209351

    I don’t believe Pompeo would let it continue.


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • rdelbov February 15, 2017 at 9:07 pm

    Not sure why this popped up on my radar/search engine but it is interesting

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/2/15/1633845/-Morning-Digest-Nevada-Democrats-retook-the-legislature-in-2016-and-they-may-keep-it-for-a-while

    1st our KOS friends concede that the map is D friendly(hey I knew that) for the Ds. Clinton won the state 48-46 but the median seat (21 to win) is 53-46 Hillary. So to get to 21 seats the Ds just have to win Hillary seats-actually winning the Hillary seats get them to 26-16.

    2nd why are the League of women voters and Democrats suing for wasted votes in WI legislative maps but somehow everything in NV is happy happy joy joy. At least Nixon said “we could do that-but it would be wrong”. In NV it is just a happy occurrence.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 16, 2017 at 1:34 am

      “an effort that members of the intelligence community fear could curtail their independence”

      **** them. They ought to be hanging from bridges Mussolini-style, not merely curtailed. They’ve outright gone rogue, leaking information to the press while hypocritically refusing to provide it to the actual administration in fear of leaks. We have never seen an agency go outright rogue like this before, including the much-aligned but not that awful State. We have never seen an agency in American history display such contempt for the democratic process in our country and it’s just such a shocking contempt when contrasted with the reverence displayed by the actual military. What they are doing resembles more the Kwantung Army of 1930’s Japan than any organization in a functioning democracy.

      And they’ve signed their own warrant. Democrats will eventually forget about Trump and revert back to their normal views on the IC. We won’t.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • The Emperor February 16, 2017 at 2:35 am

        Agreed. Most Republicans are now fully against the professional IC. Perhaps we should shift more and more responsibility to the DIA.


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

  • krazen1211 February 15, 2017 at 10:57 pm

    Gerrymandering has little to no partisan effect on Congress, or so a paper claims.

    http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jowei/gerrymandering.pdf

    Or said another way, it tends to cancel itself out over the long term, with some states going one way and other states going another.

    For the record, districts won by R candidates, of districts drawn at the time, spanning 3 decades of maps.

    Bush 2000: 228
    Bush 2004: 255
    McCain 2008: 193
    Romney 2012: 226
    Trump 2016: 230

    • rdelbov February 16, 2017 at 6:44 am

      Since this has been my contention for years and years that the GOP has a natural advantage in the makeup of the house due to the D vote being packed-I am thankful for academic support on this issue.

      That is not to say that the GOP has not benefited from being in control of the process in many states but it is not as overwhelming as some would suggest. The GOP control helps provide the Ds or judges or commissions from gerrymandering the process. See my post below and my response to Torie’s diary.

  • Mike1965 February 15, 2017 at 11:47 pm

    http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/wisconsins-sean-duffy-expected-forgo-senate-bid

    Wisconsin Rep. Sean P. Duffy is expected to pass on a run for Senate in 2018, according to Republican sources inside and outside Wisconsin. An announcement could come as early as Thursday.


    "Don't believe everything you read on the Internet" - Abraham Lincoln

    • Son_of_the_South February 15, 2017 at 11:59 pm

      Dammit


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • MosheM February 16, 2017 at 12:25 am

      Trump effect on recruiting perhaps.


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • The Emperor February 16, 2017 at 12:44 am

        Remember, we don’t want candidates that don’t truly want it, and Cory Gardner had declined to run until he reversed in Feb 2014. Still have lots of time to flush out challengers


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

        • CTIronman February 16, 2017 at 7:48 am

          Suspect State Senate Prez Fitzgerald gets ROFR now

    • GOPTarHeel February 16, 2017 at 9:29 am

      This is good news for Republicans. Races like Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania are much like NC-Sen circa 2010. It is VERY difficult for a party in government to pick up seats in a midterm election in a swing state without major incumbent issues. On the other hand, Meehan and perhaps Duffy running would mean there would be a strong chance of losing their house seats. We have 5 extremely solid targets MT, MO, ND, IN, and WV. We don’t need to expand the map anymore.


      R/NC-4.

      • Izengabe February 16, 2017 at 9:50 am

        We do need to expand the map. It never hurts to expand the map. That being said I’m not sure Duffy was the best candidate. Better to keep him in House and his congressional seat safe and let someone else talked on Baldwin


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • shamlet February 16, 2017 at 10:09 am

        To me I think 57 should be our ideal goal, so a sweep of those 5 or something else to compensate. That essentially puts the Senate out of reach for Dems in 2020, as I don’t think there are more than 6 vulnerable seats in our class that year (CO, GA, IA, ME, MT, NC). If we get to 57 seat #51 for Dems in 2020 will be something like AK or TX.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

        • rdelbov February 16, 2017 at 10:18 am

          There are several excellent candidates IMO in WI–I like the AG as much if not more then Duffy. I like as well the previous AG Van Hollen a lot –The LG would also be a top recruit.

        • krazen1211 February 16, 2017 at 11:05 am

          I agree with punting PA but not WI. WI is a cheap enough state to at least try, and Ron Johnson won a big victory in WI. I am not entirely sure that OH is a swing state anymore, but we shall see.

          In 2002 we gained MN and MO, and held a NH open seat. The Torricelli swap stole a seat from us too.

          • CTIronman February 16, 2017 at 11:16 am

            The GOP floor seems to keep rising in PA. It’s worth a flier IMO. If Rick Scott wasn’t spending his own $ I’d punt FL though unless Nelson retired

      • MosheM February 16, 2017 at 10:16 am

        I agree on Meehan.
        Do you know that Trump won Duffy’s district 58-37?


        28, M, R, NY-10

        • GOPTarHeel February 16, 2017 at 10:18 am

          Yeah, Duffy’s seat is tougher, but there could be some residual Democratic strength there that bounces back. We won seats that voted by similar margins for Obama in 2010 and 2014.


          R/NC-4.

  • Greyhound February 16, 2017 at 4:04 am

    Pew Poll on Public Opinion of various Religions in America:
    http://www.pewforum.org/2017/02/15/americans-express-increasingly-warm-feelings-toward-religious-groups/

    Basically, everyone is starting to like each other more, at least in terms of blanket religion. Atheists and Muslims still aren’t really liked, but have moved into “Tolerated” from “Cool” over the last 3 years.


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

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