Political Roundup for February 17, 2017

Senate:

MI-Sen: Apparently one Republican rock musician considering a Senate race in Michigan isn’t enough. With Kid Rock being talked about a possible candidate, now Ted Nugent is said to be considering a race as well. Nugent is a strong supporter of President Trump and the state director for Trump’s campaign says he thinks Nugent could be the perfect candidate to replicate the Trump campaign’s successful coalition that turned the state red for the first time since 1988. Nugent says he has things to consider before making the race-including the fact he will be 70 next year and that he needs complete support from his family.

WI-Sen: Republicans have lost their most prominent potential candidate to take on Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). Rep. Sean Duffy (R) has announced he will not run. State Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) had been waiting on Duffy’s decision before he decided whether to make a bid. Management consultant and Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson, state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) and 2012 Senate candidate Eric Hovde are other Republicans who have expressed interest in the race.

House:

GA-6: For a district that only voted narrowly for Donald Trump, two Republican candidates don’t seem to be concerned about ties to him-in fact, they are fighting over who has the closer ties. Bruce LeVell, a Trump delegate to the Republican National Convention and technology executive Bob Gray both claim to have the mantle of the president’s biggest supporter. Levell was executive director of Trump’s National Diversity Coalition during last year’s campaign while Gray claims a personal relationship with him. Others in the race are claiming other prominent endorsements-former state Sen. Dan Moody (R) has allies of Sen. David Perdue (R) behind him, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R), who formerly held this seat, has endorsed former state Sen. Judson Hill (R). Former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) is still seen as the frontrunner.

MT-AL: As the wait continues for Rep. Ryan Zinke (R) to be confirmed as Secretary of the Interior, state Senate President Scott Sales (R) has dropped out of the race to succeed him. 2016 GOP  gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte, state Sen. Ed Buttrey (R), former state Sen. Ken Miller (R) and businessman Eugene Graf are still in the running for the Republican nomination.

SC-5: Mick Mulvaney was approved yesterday as OMB director by a 51-49 vote and has resigned his seat in Congress, setting in motion the official schedule to fill the seat. The primaries will be May 2 with a runoff if necessary May 16. The general election will be June 20. State Rep. Ralph Norman (R) is resigning his seat in the Legislature to concentrate on the campaign. Other Republicans running are state House Speaker Pro Tem Tommy Pope (R), former state GOP Chairman Chad Connelly, party activist Shari Few, attorney and State Guard commander Tom Mullikin and attorney Kris Wampler. No Democrats have yet announced they plan to run-state Sen. and two time Democratic nominee for governor Vincent Sheheen (D) is not running.

Governor:

CT-Gov: Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti (R) is considering running for governor next year. Lauretti, who has been mayor of Shelton for 26 years, intended to run in 2014 as well, but did not get on the ballot. Two other Republican mayors are also considering running-Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst and Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton have both formed exploratory committees for statewide office. Gov. Dan Malloy (D) has not yet announced if he will seek a third term next year.

FL-Gov: Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn (D) has long been considered a potential candidate for governor next year, but doubts are growing about whether he will make the race. Friends believe he has not made up his mind yet, and he says he needs to decide if it’s something he really wants. He has not started actively making moves toward a campaign yet, unlike fellow Democrats former Rep. Gwen Graham, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine and political newcomer Chris King. Personal injury lawyer John Morgan is also considering a run on the Democratic side.

KS-Gov: Businessman Wink Hartman (R) has announced a run for governor next year. Hartman previously ran for Congress in 2010 as a “Tea Party conservative”, losing to now-CIA Director Mike Pompeo in the GOP primary. Ex-state Rep. Ed O’Malley (R) is the only other person to formally announce a bid.

OK-Gov: LG Todd Lamb (R) has resigned from the cabinet of Gov. Mary Fallin (R) over Fallin’s proposed tax increases. Lamb was in Fallin’s cabinet as the state’s Small Business Advocate-the resignation does not affect his position as the state’s Lieutenant Governor. The move is seen possibly as a way for him to separate himself from an unpopular tax increase proposal as he is considered a likely candidate for governor next year.

State & Local:

LA-Treasurer: State Sen. Neil Riser (R) has officially entered the race for state Treasurer. Riser formerly ran for the LA-5 congressional seat in 2013, being defeated by Vance McAllister in the runoff. He joins state Reps. Julie Stokes (R) and John Schroder (R) in the race.

MI-resigning legislators law: The Michigan House is debating a law that would forbid state legislators that resign or are removed from office from turning around and running for the seat again in a special election. The law appears to be aimed primarily at former state Rep. Brian Banks (D), who resigned his seat last week in a plea deal stemming from charges involving fradulent loan documents. Banks sent out fundraising e-mails less than 48 hours after resigning and would not rule out running again. The law would also address the situation of former state Reps. Todd Courser (R) and Cindy Gamrat (R) after they had an extra-marital affair and plotted to cover it up in 2015. Courser resigned his seat under pressure and Gamrat was expelled, but both ran in the special election to fill their seats. Both were defeated in the primary. The law would only preclude resigned and expelled legislators from running in the ensuing special election-they could still run again in the future.

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117 Comments

  • RogueBeaver February 17, 2017 at 7:59 am

    RIP Bob Michel. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/bob-michel-dies-former-gop-house-leader-234936

    SC-1: Entrepreneur Ted Fienning is primarying Sanford. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/mark-sanford-profile-214791


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • rdelbov February 17, 2017 at 9:11 am

      Michel was a giant among men in the house. I believe he will have an unbroken record–he served longer in the minority then any house member ever. He served all of his 38 years in the minority.

      Saying that for his 14 years of GOP leadership–(81-95) he got the Reagan agenda passed and fought the good fight getting much of the Bush 41 program through the house.

      The US house was very different back with some liberal Rs who the Ds could count on to help pass bills but more importantly many moderate/conservative Ds who passed GOP bills.

    • cincojotas February 17, 2017 at 11:41 am

      would have been a great speaker.

      • HS February 17, 2017 at 12:07 pm

        I always thought Gingrich should have put Michel in the Speakership for a year. You don’t need to be a member, so he could have done it. It also would have helped Gingrich, by making him seem magnanimous and allowing him to delay/avoid his targeting by the MSM (this is exactly the strategy Tom Delay used).

        • rdelbov February 17, 2017 at 12:09 pm

          I like Gingrich and certainly thought he deserved to be speaker in 1995.

          I suspect the over reach by Clinton would have lead to GOP control in 1995 with or without either Newt or Michel.

          • cer February 17, 2017 at 5:17 pm

            I would have preferred Rep. Gerald Solomon(NY)(sp) over Newt myself.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

  • GorrestFump February 17, 2017 at 9:42 am

    Looks like Acosta may be another party line vote.
    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/alexander-acosta-trump-jeffrey-epstein-plea-235096

    • edtorres04 February 17, 2017 at 9:53 am

      Isn’t this man Bill Clinton’s friend?

    • cer February 17, 2017 at 11:27 am

      My God, Acosta seems like a real good EGG. He deserves bi-partisan support!


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • AD123 February 17, 2017 at 11:51 am

      Ds are really making it hard for soft Trump supporters to like them when they refuse to be the good gov’t party.

  • edtorres04 February 17, 2017 at 9:56 am

    DCCC recruiting veterans: we really should do the same thing including recruiting Navy Seals for the Us senate:

    Rob O’Neill for Montana senate
    Scott Taylor for VA senate
    Mike Gallagher for WI senate
    Mast for FL senate? Maybe too early for him

    I think they would all have good shots except Mast.

    • edtorres04 February 17, 2017 at 10:00 am

      O’Neill and Taylor are seals.

    • GorrestFump February 17, 2017 at 10:02 am

      A bit early for all of them.

    • LtNOWIS February 17, 2017 at 10:50 am

      I’m very supportive of having more veterans in high office. But I don’t think increasing the numbers would confer a significant electoral benefit, either for individual races or collectively for the party as a whole.


      28, VA-11

      • jncca February 17, 2017 at 2:29 pm

        Republicans are already seen as the “military party.” Just like Democrats don’t need to run minorities to show they are the “party of minorities” Republicans don’t need to run veterans to show anything. It helps Dems to run veterans and Republicans to run minorities, though.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • cer February 17, 2017 at 11:07 am

    Looks like the WH is finally going to hire a full time Communications Director.

    http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/17/report-mike-dubke-to-be-named-white-house-communications-director/?utm_campaign=atdailycaller&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • RRR February 17, 2017 at 11:39 am

    FYI: Ed O’Malley is an ex-State Rep.


    PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
    More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

  • The Emperor February 17, 2017 at 11:59 am

    SecState Tillerson is cleaning house at Foggy Bottom

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4234060/State-Department-laying-staff-Rex-Tillerson.html


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

    • HS February 17, 2017 at 12:14 pm

      Good.

      Normally, I might be somewhat sympathetic to the argument “don’t get rid of people until you have replacements for them”. However, seeing what we have seen with the CIA, it is a guarantee that the State people are already trying to sabotage the new Administration.

      After all, State and the CIA have very similar policy positions and personnel. The only difference seems to be the CIA is willing to kill people.

    • w920us February 17, 2017 at 12:52 pm

      I prefer the NY Post’s headline… 😜😜

      It’s a bloodbath at the State Department
      https://www.google.com/amp/nypost.com/2017/02/17/rex-tillerson-fires-top-officials-at-state-department/amp/?client=safari


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 17, 2017 at 12:59 pm

      Fantastic. I remember posting from my smartphone on a beach vacation about how great of a SecState Tillerson would be. Strong private sector experience, strong relationship with Trump, strong backing from Condi Rice. Everything lined up for him and now we are reaping the harvest.

      Now all we need is a Rex Tillerson-type figure to run our intelligence agencies.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • MosheM February 17, 2017 at 12:11 pm

    Q VA-SEN.

    https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2430


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • kewgardens February 17, 2017 at 12:30 pm

      Horrific.

      • MosheM February 17, 2017 at 12:34 pm

        Unsurprising


        29, M, R, NY-10

        • Ryan_in_SEPA February 17, 2017 at 12:59 pm

          Virginia is a blue state.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • rdelbov February 17, 2017 at 1:10 pm

            I guess I have to disagree. Hard to argue about 2008/2012/2016 presidential numbers but the majority of the congressional vote went GOP in 2016-we hold 7/11 Congressional seats.

            The GOP came close in recent senate and Gov races.

            We have legislative majorities. Two polls in 2017 Gov race taken in 2017 are completely opposite. One shows a GOP lead and another shows a D lead.

            VA does not have a blue feel to it. Hillary did not top 50% in 2016 and IMO that is the classic defination of being a blue state. WA & OR topped 50% for Clinton–Blue State. VA might have a purplish tinge but not blue.

            • Jon February 17, 2017 at 7:45 pm

              2010s VA is a lot like 2000s MI:
              In presidential election years, Democrats are clear favorites for statewide races, but the vote normally evaporates during mid terms.
              In addition though Democrats are self packed in VA like MI, and so Republicans control the VA House by a solid margin, and would have a better margin in the VA Senate if the N VA districts weren’t a mini-baconator.


              45, M, MO-02

      • rdelbov February 17, 2017 at 12:53 pm

        Not saying that Kaine is not a favorite but this Q poll is showing a 2008 electorate and Obama got 90% of Ds in 2008 in VA. Kaine is not getting 97% of Ds. Period end of story.

        I put about as much faith in this poll as I did in many 2016 polls.

        • GOPTarHeel February 17, 2017 at 1:12 pm

          I don’t believe this poll either, because Kaine would probably beat Ingraham by 30.


          R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

        • Mike1965 February 17, 2017 at 1:39 pm

          FWIW according to exit polls the 2008 electorate was almost exactly the same as the 2014 electorate (70% white, 30% non white). Would not be a surprise at all if 2017 was also 70W/30NW .


          #ThanksObama

          • rdelbov February 17, 2017 at 1:59 pm

            There is a difference between old white folks in rural VA voting and young college kids in Arlington county voting. It is not all about white versus black.

            I note that the 2014 electorate IMO was also skewed by higher turnout in southern senate and Gov races in NC-GA-LA-FL-TX.

            In 2018 the electorate in VA and in the USA as a whole may be as white as in 2008 or 2016 but it will be younger and more republican. This has been the case in every midterm since exit polling starting.

            I asked this question who accounts for lower turnout numbers between a Presidential year and an off year? Do old people and republicans stay home? No historically the drop off in turnout is related to age (1st and foremost) since other factors like race/education and so forth.

            • Son_of_the_South February 17, 2017 at 3:29 pm

              Lol there are almost no college kids in Arlington. There’s one college (Marymount), and it’s not that big. Now, what Arlington does have is a lot of young consultants/marketing people/paralegals who are just out of college and live fairly close to Wilson Boulevard so that they can easily get on the metro.


              24, R, TN-09
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Tekzilla February 17, 2017 at 12:46 pm

      Pretty much what I expected. Likely D, might be Safe D at some point too.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • andyroo312 February 17, 2017 at 3:18 pm

        I’d say Likely D against Ingraham or Fiorina, Lean D against a competent, non-trainwreck opponent.


        MA-7

        • Tekzilla February 17, 2017 at 8:43 pm

          Disagree. Comstock, maybe Tom Davis, otherwise Likely – Safe D.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • Izengabe February 17, 2017 at 8:57 pm

          Disagree. It is Likely D no matter what. Fiorina is a hail mary and I’m all for doing that in an otherwise losing cause. This is basically how I felt about Gillespie running for Senate in 2014 and he almost pulled off the upset.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • CTIronman February 17, 2017 at 9:09 pm

            I wouldn’t risk someone with a future or a risky seat against a dude who goes in +20% favorable

            • Izengabe February 17, 2017 at 9:26 pm

              Agreed. Which is why Carly Fiorina is the perfect candidate here. She has neither a future nor a risky seat to risk. Anything she is able to do here would be pure gravy. If she wins great! If not that was what was expected.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Mike1965 February 17, 2017 at 12:53 pm

      VA is now to left of states like MN, PA. The times they are a changing.


      #ThanksObama

      • rdelbov February 17, 2017 at 12:54 pm

        No VA is not to the left of MN or PA. Look at 2014 VA senate race.

        I fully admit that Trump was a no-sell in NOVA and that made the difference in 2016 numbers.

        • Mike1965 February 17, 2017 at 1:07 pm

          Disagree. Population shifts are probably as great in VA as anywhere. NOVA is booming while rural VA is losing population. While Trump is the face of the Republican I don’t see Republicans improving NOVA.


          #ThanksObama

          • rdelbov February 17, 2017 at 1:13 pm

            I guess we will see. I note that in 2017 Trump is not on the ballot in VA. GOP candidates in 2016 in numerous states and districts ran ahead of Trump. You can make the assumption that this will not happen in 2017 or 2018 but disagree.

            I note again that in 2017 VA turnout will be 40% lower then in 2016. Minority and Younger voters will account for more of that drop off. The electorate in 2017 will not look like it did in 2016.

          • indocon February 17, 2017 at 1:15 pm

            10% fed job cuts in DC should slow the bleeding.

            • segmentation_fault February 17, 2017 at 2:17 pm

              Trump taking an ax to the NoVA economy probably wouldn’t be good for Republicans.


              En Marche!

          • krazen1211 February 17, 2017 at 2:26 pm

            Booming is a bit much. Population growth in places like Fairfax County has slowed down since 2014 or so, with Virginia 12th district falling away according to recent estimates.

            • davybaby February 17, 2017 at 9:33 pm

              Fairfax County has filled up; there isn’t much vacant land there anymore. The growth is now in the next ring–Loudoun, Prince William, Stafford, etc.

        • Manhatlibertarian February 17, 2017 at 1:16 pm

          Yeah I think Kaine should win his Senate race with no problem but the 2017 Gov race, where Gillespie trails by 6 or 7 points against the main Dem contenders in the Q poll is a different story. As you have pointed out the polls were way off in the 2014 senate race, which Warner barely won. Using a 2008 electorate in the poll of course favors the Dem in the Gov race and it is not clear that the Dems will get that favorable a turnout in 2017, particularly with minority voters. Also remember that Gillespie is not Trump, and Trump only lost the state by a little over 5 points, so I would expect Gillespie that would do better in NoVa. The Gov race should be close; I don’t think the Dems have a solid lead.

    • Mugwump February 17, 2017 at 1:47 pm

      I don’t know how any of you guys can believe a VA poll after 2013, 2014 and even 2016.


      Trumpocrat who wants to MAGA WI-06

      • segmentation_fault February 17, 2017 at 2:20 pm

        There’s a new president now, and one that is a uniquely bad fit for Virginia (for a Republican). Kaine is probably going to win by double digits, even against Comstock. Virginia is blue leaning anyway, plus Kaine has built up good will from the VP campaign.


        En Marche!

        • Mugwump February 17, 2017 at 2:29 pm

          I’m not saying Kaine isn’t favored but outside of a new Republican President, you could have made the same argument for Warner and look how off the polls were despite getting the winner correct. To this day I believe a lot of the pollsters conspired against Ken Cuccinelli (I guy I don’t even like.) because their polls got the GOP to pull money from the race despite it in reality being neck and neck. Regardless, I would wait for Richard Baris to take a crack at the race before trusting any polling in VA.


          Trumpocrat who wants to MAGA WI-06

          • segmentation_fault February 17, 2017 at 2:35 pm

            I think with Cuccinelli there may have been a small shy Tory effect, or more likely, Obamacare getting really bad headlines in the last two weeks of the campaign helped him.


            En Marche!

          • Tekzilla February 17, 2017 at 8:44 pm

            Pollsters Conspired? What in the world am I even reading?


            36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • MikeFL February 17, 2017 at 2:51 pm

      It would’ve been nice if they had polled Comstock, just to see the margin of a non-subpar candidate against Kaine. If we nominate Ingraham or Fiorina, it’s a lost cause regardless.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • HS February 17, 2017 at 4:13 pm

        I think Kaine starts off at Likely D, but Kaine is not a great candidate. His VP debate was atrocious, and I believe he recently stepped in it by seeming to encourage violence to protest Trump. I could see him making more such mistakes like these.

        The Governors race is a Toss Up. And Gillespie is a good candidate, so I am hopeful he will buck the northern Virginia tide. He should be helped by his association with Bush, since Democrats are praising the former Republican President to contrast with the current Republican President.

  • Manhatlibertarian February 17, 2017 at 12:17 pm

    Friday NY tidbits:

    The leftist Working Families Party will give Dem Mayor deBlasio its line in the Nov election, along with Dem City Comptroller Scott Stringer and Dem Public Advocate Letitia James. The WFP said deBlasio and the others are leading in the fight to resist Trump.

    A Staten Island middle school teacher, Adria Zawatsky, got in hot water when she gave a homework assignment that had implied criticism of Trump. The homework assignment involved vocabulary and included the line “President Trump speaks in a very superior and _____ manner insulting many people.” The vocabulary word the teacher wanted the students to put in the blank is “haughty”. A parent put a note on his daughter’s homework assignment to the effect that the teacher was trying to influence the students with her political views and his daughter did not fill in the blank. The teacher then deducted 15 points from his daughter’s grade on the assignment because that part of the homework was not filled in. The parent complained again and the school principal put a disciplinary letter in the teacher’s file, rejecting her assertion that her right to free speech was being violated.

    Meanwhile an elite Upper East Side private school cancelled its annual ice skating party at Trump Wollman Skating Rink in Central Park after some parents complained they didn’t want their children attending an event held at a site connected with Trump.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

  • Manhatlibertarian February 17, 2017 at 1:03 pm

    Senate Dems have apparently dropped demands that an independent commission be set up to investigate ties between the Trump campaign and Russia. Instead they have endorsed a bipartisan probe by the Senate Intelligence Committee, chaired by GOP Senator Burr of NC. Dem Senator Warner of Va., the ranking Dem on the committee, explained that “We’ve already started the process…we want to get this done expeditiously” Warner also stated that he has faith that Chairman Burr will pursue the investigation fairly.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationwide/politics/ct-congressional-probe-trump-flynn-russia-20170215-story.html

  • Mike1965 February 17, 2017 at 1:12 pm

    Trump down to 38% approval in Gallop tracking poll. Matches Obama all time low. On the other hand he is at 55% on Rasmussen. At least one of them is wrong.


    #ThanksObama

    • GOPTarHeel February 17, 2017 at 1:13 pm

      Probably both of them.


      R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

    • GorrestFump February 17, 2017 at 1:33 pm

      Gallup/Pew is all adults which tends to be more liberal, RAS (likely voter)odd with midterms way off, FOX/Politico (Registered Voter). I think Fox/Politico are probably right on the money, which is a even JA but they were both done before Flynngate.

      • HS February 17, 2017 at 4:17 pm

        I have never understand the point of polling all adults. Sorry, but if you choose not to register, or are too stupid to do so, I don’t think we should care what you want. The system is set up to honor the wishes of those who vote (which a registered person can do).

        • The Emperor February 17, 2017 at 5:04 pm

          It also pulls in non-citizens and could even get illegal immigrants, who don’t have any reason to like Trump


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

          • Tekzilla February 17, 2017 at 8:46 pm

            Yea, I’m sure there are tons of non-citizens waiting by the phone dying to waste their time doing a political poll. Come on.


            36/M/NY-01 (D)

            • The Emperor February 18, 2017 at 2:12 am

              You can say the same thing about basically everyone. This is not a valid counterargument.


              male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
              Rubio Republican

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 17, 2017 at 1:14 pm

    Senate voting on Pruitt. McCain absent and Collins voting no, apparently.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 17, 2017 at 1:17 pm

      Pruitt confirmed woo.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • MosheM February 17, 2017 at 1:30 pm

        I hope he fires all employees and closes up shop…

        I know he can’t.


        29, M, R, NY-10

        • Jon February 17, 2017 at 7:47 pm

          There is though sending them on field trips a long way from Washington in hopes they’ll quit; at the very least it gets them out of the office.


          45, M, MO-02

      • Manhatlibertarian February 17, 2017 at 1:31 pm

        Two Dems, Heitkamp (ND) and Manchin (W.Va) voted for Pruitt. Collins was the only Repub to vote no. By the way the senate goes on a week long recess after today, so there will be some cabinet nominees who won’t be voted on for at least a week then I would think.

        • Left Coast Libertarian February 17, 2017 at 1:55 pm

          To amuse myself I searched for Heitkamp on Twitter. Every Tweet has from an angry Democrat wanting to get Heitkamp and Manchin out of office. I didn’t see one supporting them. It’d be fun if every Democrat who thinks they should be able to pick the Democratic nominee in WV and ND could vote in their primaries. They’re supposed to vote like New Yorkers.

          • The Emperor February 17, 2017 at 2:03 pm

            I think Heitkamp is this year’s Mary Landrieu. Don’t see how she can win if the GOP can get an all star candidate


            male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
            Rubio Republican

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 17, 2017 at 2:05 pm

              I think more Blanchard than Landrieu because I could see some total Sanders acolyte primary both Manchin and Heitkamp.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • Izengabe February 17, 2017 at 9:06 pm

                The fear for Manchin would be the West Virginia Mountain Party running a very strong candidate like Charlotte Pritt again. She took almost 6% of the vote for Governor last year. If they could get 6% of the vote in the senatorial election, Manchin could have a very hard time winning against a Republican not named Raese.


                Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • cincojotas February 17, 2017 at 2:09 pm

              @emperor – https://morningconsult.com/senator-approval-rankings-september-2016/

              • pstchrisp February 17, 2017 at 2:17 pm

                Heh. While I see your point on Heitkamp’s approvals
                North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp 57% 32% 12% 7%
                the first one I noticed was:
                New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte 58% 32% 10% 5%

                • Left Coast Libertarian February 17, 2017 at 6:36 pm

                  Landrieu was a legacy candidate from her father and from the time when Democrats dominated in Louisiana. She never had to run against the 2014 Republican party before. Heitkamp has run in a state that’s leaned Republican for a while.

            • pstchrisp February 17, 2017 at 2:12 pm

              Heitkamp is voting much more strategically than Landreiu did. There’s no Obamacare vote to tie around Heitkamp’s neck right now. This one will probably play out more like Thune/Daschle.

              • krazen1211 February 17, 2017 at 3:35 pm

                Landreiu had a 4 year gap, though. Heitkamp has a 2 year gap.

                I guess we don’t have a ‘control’ so to speak, because the Democrats got rolled in both 2014 and 2016, and so there is only 1 Democrat in a Trump state not up in 2018 (Peters).

                I think the chances of at least 1 of the Trump 10 being either primaried or retiring are underestimated. Right now we have 10/10 of them running for re-election.

          • segmentation_fault February 17, 2017 at 2:15 pm

            You don’t have to go very far to the right of a median Democrat in WV to get to hardcore Trump supporters. I don’t think Manchin has anything to worry about.


            En Marche!

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 17, 2017 at 2:35 pm

              Charlotte Pritt, the Green Party nominee that took 6% of the vote last year, bested Joe Manchin in a primary the first time he ran for WV Governor. The WV Democratic Party has a reasonably robust progressive faction.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • shamlet February 17, 2017 at 2:44 pm

                In a split field when Manchin was a little-known State Senator. There are progressives, but they probably make up around a third of the party (though that’s increasing as conservadems defect to the GOP). Manchin losing a primary is not going to happen.


                R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 17, 2017 at 3:52 pm

                  Well, Bill Halter didn’t beat Blanche Lincoln either, so I’d agree with that. But that’s only because I also know Manchin is a good politician who would actually try to win his own primary (as opposed to someone like say, Dick Lugar). So I could definitely imagine a situation where a grassroots primary campaign against Manchin manages to grievously injure him in time for a general election, which would push it into the toss-up category.


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • fzw February 17, 2017 at 3:37 pm

              In the primary? Probably not. But in the general election, I wouldn’t rate his race any better for him than lean D at most. Tossup with Jenkins.


              Currently MO-5. From MO-3.

  • JPF February 17, 2017 at 1:50 pm

    How does a Kid Rock/ Nugent primary play out? I assume Kid Rock gets the Kasich/Cruz urban areas while Nugent rolls over the rural trumpy Areas?


    VA-08 - Reluctant Trump Supporter

    • WingNightAlone February 17, 2017 at 3:54 pm

      I think Kid Rock does better everywhere. Nugent is a known crank where Ritchie is a pretty mainstream conservative afaik.


      25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

      • HS February 17, 2017 at 4:23 pm

        The two could tour Michigan together having Lincoln-Douglas Concerts. That way they would also make money.

      • Tekzilla February 17, 2017 at 8:47 pm

        Yup Kid Rock wins in a walk. All he needs to do is to have a Super PAC remind people of the pedophile/jailbait stuff and its game over.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Izengabe February 17, 2017 at 9:19 pm

      Q: How does a Kid Rock/ Nugent primary play out?
      A: With me swearing off politics forever.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Mike1965 February 17, 2017 at 9:39 pm

        Unfortunate side effect of the Trump Presidency, every C list celebrity will think they should run for office.


        #ThanksObama

    • Republican Michigander February 17, 2017 at 11:27 pm

      (sighs) – I hope I have better choices. (Cough Mike Rogers Cough)

      “”I assume Kid Rock gets the Kasich/Cruz urban areas while Nugent rolls over the rural trumpy Areas?””
      Nuge is Nuge. His nicknames are “Uncle Ted” and “Motor City Madman.” He also left Michigan a few years back to Texas.

      Kid Rock is from the heart of Trump Country. Romeo, MI which is in Macomb County (Bruce and Washington Twps).


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • ihate2fly February 17, 2017 at 2:22 pm

    Possible. And she probably wouldn’t be the only one.

    McCaskill (D-MO): I may face 2018 primary from Tea Party-esque progressives

    http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/320126-claire-mccaskill-i-could-face-face-2018-primary-challenge-from-tea-party

    • fzw February 17, 2017 at 3:35 pm

      It wouldn’t be anyone who could actually topple her. Cleaver, Clay and Kander all have her back, and rural Dems certainly aren’t going to vote for a gadfly like Chappelle-Nadal over her.


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.

      • MikeFL February 17, 2017 at 3:47 pm

        I mean Christine O’Donnell beat Mike Castle, who was an institution in Delaware. I guess anything is possible.


        26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • Izengabe February 17, 2017 at 9:30 pm

        What’s Maria Chappelle-Nadal doing? Maybe she wants to run for US Senate!


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Wahoowa February 17, 2017 at 3:21 pm

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/mark-sanford-profile-214791?cmpid=sf

    Interesting Mark Sanford profile in Politico that speculates on him challenging Lindsay Graham. If there’s one race that could put Sanford back in a positive light worth folks who previously abandoned him, that might be it. Interesting prospect, although given the closeness between the two it makes me think more that Sanford knows something about Graham’s intentions that the rest of us don’t.


    CO-7

    • edtorres04 February 17, 2017 at 3:32 pm

      No way! Sanford and Graham are like brothers!

  • krazen1211 February 17, 2017 at 3:44 pm

    Salt to taste, but OFA is apparently pissing off their state parties.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/02/17/leaked-emails-dem-state-leaders-think-obama-s-new-organizing-army-is-grade-a-bullshit.html

    • cincojotas February 17, 2017 at 4:25 pm

      OFA’s biggest problem, I think, was a lack of respect for “the townies” in local democratic parties. If you try to usurp there local customs and traditions, of course you’re going to cause unnecessary conflict.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 17, 2017 at 4:27 pm

        “biggest problem, I think, was a lack of respect for “the townies” in local democratic parties. If you try to usurp there local customs and traditions, of course you’re going to cause unnecessary conflict.”

        In many ways, I feel this sentence is a microcosm of the entire problem with left-wing liberalism.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • Son_of_the_South February 17, 2017 at 4:45 pm

          If you go to a lot of small cities, especially in the Midwest, the ‘townies’ are now swingy or even part of the Republican base (that last one is especially true in towns with big college populations). A lot of the older ones are still 0ld-school union Dems, but the young ones are often Republican by default. Some of the young ones are still Dems, of course. Still, I’m just envisioning some young OFA organizer from San Mateo County trying to explain to the union steward in Chillicothe why he has to support x, y, and z that he knows doesn’t play in southern Ohio.


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 17, 2017 at 5:28 pm

            I’m honestly sure that a third of why some Republicans are where we are is because we looked at the young OFA organizer from San Mateo County and went “I do not care if hell freezes over, we are not going to be in the same political party as that thing.”


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • Greyhound February 18, 2017 at 4:10 am

              Here here! I honestly believe I would be a Liberal if I grew up anywhere else outside of the Bay Area.


              R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • Republican Michigander February 17, 2017 at 11:32 pm

        “”was a lack of respect for “the townies” in local democratic parties””
        That happens in every state in every election and is not unique to the D’s. There’s always tension when there’s top down stuff from Boston, Virginia, or DC.

        Closer to home, the people I voted for in GOP Party Leadership Vice-Chair races at the last state convention were those who showed up at my last county meeting. I had a real tough choice in one race since I liked two candidates equally, but the guy who came to my county got my vote.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • StatenIslandTest February 17, 2017 at 4:02 pm

    NJ-5: Bad News, Assemblywoman Schepisi likely not running:

    http://observer.com/2017/02/breaking-holly-schepisi-will-not-run-for-congress-in-cd-5/


    32, Jersey City

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 17, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    Ted Cruz pushes a rather familiar name for National Security Advisor: John Bolton.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2615180/

    You know, I was pretty skeptical of Bolton at State, but hell. Let’s do it this time. He doesn’t need a confirmation vote anymore. Someone needs to drain the swamp. Bolton for NSA!


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • MosheM February 17, 2017 at 4:21 pm

      I would love it.


      29, M, R, NY-10

  • shamlet February 17, 2017 at 4:19 pm

    Thinking about the MT-AL schedule – Zinke’s cloture is at 7PM on 2/27, which means he will probably be confirmed first thing on 3/1. That makes the 85-100 day window to schedule the special from 5/25 to 6/8, meaning that May 30th or June 6th are the possible dates. Since May 30th is the day after Memorial Day, I would strongly bet on a 6/6 special here. I will update the calendar.


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Tekzilla February 17, 2017 at 8:49 pm

      The Zinke vote will be interesting. I’d bet he’s one of a few who gets like mid double digit Democratic support. maybe with a final vote like 75-25ish.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • krazen1211 February 17, 2017 at 4:54 pm

    Arizona with 3 Dem districts in Maricops. It actually ended up being easier than I thought….though it pushes the 1st district into the red column. Populations aren’t really exact by any means, but the general shapes I think would be like this.

    https://ibb.co/c9kLfa
    https://ibb.co/gRncRF

    The optimal map for us is what Shamlet I think suggested a few days back….bring back the old Ben Quayle district as the 10th in North Phoenix and adjust the rest of the districts. I am working on that map.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 17, 2017 at 5:32 pm

    Whoa, the French election get another shocker twist. It might actually be Hamon. Luckily, I have $20 riding on him, which could become $1,000.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-17/hamon-and-melenchon-weigh-united-left-bid-for-french-presidency

    A Melenchon endorsed Hamon would probably tie Le Pen for first and go into a second round with her, likely winning.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • GOPTarHeel February 17, 2017 at 5:51 pm

      Oh wow. Like the Bernie/Trump race we never had. I think LePen would win that race though.


      R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy February 17, 2017 at 5:53 pm

        This is more like Jeremy Corbyn v. Enoch Powell, since Sanders and Trump veer way closer to the center than any of these politicians.

        In other words, the greatest election ever.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • Greyhound February 17, 2017 at 6:07 pm

          And also, probably Le Pen’s best shot at winning the runoff.


          R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

    • Manhatlibertarian February 17, 2017 at 7:28 pm

      Of course if Hamon and Melenchon do unite (a big if) it might cause Fillon supporters to drift over to Macron, assuming Macron stays ahead of Fillon in the polls and Fillon continues to be burdened by corruption issues. I think a lot of French voters would want to avoid having to choose between LePen and Hamon (or Melenchon) and might switch over to Macron in the first round.

      • Greyhound February 17, 2017 at 10:13 pm

        I doubt it would matter. Fillion seems to have recovered well, and Macron’s bled enough voters to Hamon that Fillion has a perfectly reasonable shot at winning the 2nd slot against Le Pen again. They’re tied for 2nd place in the most recent poll, with or without MoDem.


        R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

  • Manhatlibertarian February 17, 2017 at 8:02 pm

    The Washington State Supreme Court in a 9-0 decision upheld a lower court decision that fined a florist $1000 for not providing flowers to the wedding of two gay men. The state of Washington has a law that forbids discrimination against gay men and lesbians. The Court said the florist could not claim an exemption from the law by claiming the first amendment protection of freedom of expression and religion. The Court said her floral arrangements do not constitute protected free speech and providing flowers to a same sex wedding in a commercial transaction does not serve as an endorsement of same sex marriage anymore than providing flowers to an atheist wedding would serve as an endorsement of atheism. The florist plans to appeal to the US Supreme Court. Her florist shop no longer provides flowers for any type of wedding.

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/washington-court-rules-florist-gay-wedding-case-45536146

  • Manhatlibertarian February 17, 2017 at 8:27 pm

    Today the Senate voted for cloture to advance the nomination of Wilbur Ross to be Commerce Secretary by 66-31. Sixteen Dems voted to advance the nomination with all Repubs who were present. However, the vote on the nomination itself will not take place until Monday, Feb. 27, after the Senate returns from the recess.

    When will all of Trump’s Cabinet picks be voted on? As the old saying goes “Any day now…”

    • TennesseeMike February 17, 2017 at 11:41 pm

      Not to worry. By Labor Day all of Trump’s cabinet nominees will finally be voted on.


      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

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