Weekend Open Thread for February 17-20, 2017

Welcome to the Presidents’ Day Weekend; we will have our traditional policy thread on Monday in lieu of a Roundup. But we’re kicking things off with some announcements. First, if you have been having trouble logging into the site, please clear your browser cache and delete cookies. We have been having a problem with one of our site security systems that has been causing people to be improperly flagged as spambots. Clearing your cache should solve this problem.

Second, we are also making the following three Race Ratings Changes for upcoming House/Row Officer elections. Our full ratings can be found by clicking the Race Rankings tab above.
MT-AL Likely R from Lean R || SC-5 Safe R from Likely R || WI-Supt Likely D from Lean D

Third, this Sunday there is a general election in Ecuador. Ecuador is a country of 15M at the western tip of South America, on the Pacific Coast between Colombia and Peru. As you might guess from the name, it straddles the Equator. Oil production and agriculture (particularly bananas) form the core of the economy. Ecuador has been led by a left-wing government under President Rafael Correa, a watered-down, less-autocratic Chavista, for a decade, but that may change this year as Correa is standing down. Ecuador uses a French two-round system with a caveat: you either need to get 50% OR 40% and a 10% margin over your nearest opponent to win. Correa’s pick to succeed him is former VP Lenin (yes, Lenin) Moreno of his left-wing PAIS (“Nation”) party. Moreno, who is an interesting figure in his own right for his story of being paralyzed in a robbery, is likely to come in a comfortable first, and there is an outside chance he may pass the 40% and 10% margin to win outright. However, odds are that he will head to a runoff. His likely opponent there is Guillermo Lasso of the center-right pro-business CREO (“Believe”) party, a banker who lost the 2013 presidential election to Correa. Lasso is likely to take a bit over 20% of the vote. Lasso could be upset for a second runoff spot by legislator Cynthia Viteri of the christian-democratic Social Christian Party, who has been polling in the high teens. A fourth major candidate, ex-Quito Mayor Paco Moncayo, could take around 10% on a center-left platform. Moncayo is unlikely to make the runoff, but his supporters could be swing votes in a second round. The remainder is likely to splinter among a number of minor candidates who will not crack out of low single digits but could draw 10% or more together. Runoff polls show Lasso or Viteri ahead of Moreno, as the current government is unpopular due to allegations of widespread corruption. The economy has also slowed with lower oil prices, and Chavism (even in Correa’s watered down form) has been showing its negative economic effects. However, Correa does have a dedicated base of supporters that will come out for Moreno, so whether the 40%/10% margin rule is triggered could dictate whether the nation has a left-wing or center-right government.

And now, without further ado,  this week’s questions:

1. Which unsuccessful presidential candidate in American history do you most wish had won?

2. What is your favorite political-related twitter feed (other than ours, of course)? I’m partial to Don Willett’s light-hearted @justicewillett stream.

And because it’s the weekend, we give you the new policy of America First/The Netherlands Second HERE.

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