Political Roundup for March 13th, 2017

As the denizens of DC realize that they got wintry mix instead of real snow, here’s your daily cup of hot electoral news to wake you up and prevent you from being so cranky that you hit your annoying neighbor.

Big Picture

Media Bubble: This is actually the ninth article in a series over at 538 that explores the 2016 election and the media’s roll in it. This part looks at the Pauline Kael Effect as it relates to 2016 and uses Brexit as a comparison.

Trumpocrats: Democracy Corps revisits a bunch of Trump voters in Macomb County and finds out that they really don’t regret their vote at all. I’d say it would be fair to extend this result to all of the fairly urban areas where Trump got major crossover support.

Congress

IN-Sen: Howey Politics looks at Todd Rokita’s (R-Indecision) nascent senatorial bid and finds him in a decent position should he choose to run. If I were him I’d decide soon, though, as Rep. Luke Messer (R-The Early Bird) is already gathering endorsements for later release.

MA-Sen: Another day, another Republican wants to challenge Lizzy Warren. Businessman John Kingston (R-Money) has been meeting with donors and party leaders in advance of a possible run for the Senate in 2018. At this point I’d call this a surprisingly crowded primary.

PA-06/PA-07: The DCCC has already come out swinging on healthcare, slamming Reps. Meehan & Costello (R-Popular) for supporting the Obamacare replacement. Yeah, yeah, whatever – Come back to me when you have actual candidates.

TX-Redistricting: Well, apparently trying to hurt OR help Hispanics elect a legislator of their choice is illegal, depending on whether it hurts or helps Democrats. No, seriously, stop laughing. That’s what a three-judge panel just said. The panel ruled that TX-23, TX-27, and TX-35 are illegal because they hurt the Democrats, err, consider race illegally. The panel issued an order for a redraw, though the state may appeal to SCOTUS to block it.

UT-03: Dr. Kathryn Allen (D-Unrealistic Expectations) has filed to run against Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Bulletproof) in 2018. This wouldn’t be very notable, except that she got over $400k in donations after Chaffetz made some mildly stupid remark about the Obamacare replacement bill.

Governor

CA-Gov: Former Assemblyman David Hadley (R-High Property Values) has filed to run for Governor. Hadley served one term representing a South Bay seat in L.A. County before losing in the anti-Trump CA tsunami in 2016. He’s a really great guy, and a very good campaigner, but I have no idea why he’s running for so high an office.

WI-Gov: Rep. Ron Kind (D-Low Risk) has decided against a bid for Governor against incumbent Scott Walker (R-Conservative Pantheon). This is very good news for Walker in his search for a third term, as Kind likely would have instantly turned the race into a coinflip.

State/Local

PA-HD-197: The Philly Democratic machine has lost their appeal, so the only name that will appear on the special election ballot is that of Lucinda Little (R). Democrats are now mounting a write-in campaign, which should be a good test of the machine’s strength.

WATN: Former OH Senate Minority Leader Capri Cafaro (D-Their Only Hope) has taken a job at American University teaching public affairs. In the article she doesn’t rule out running for Congress in the future. However, AU being in my neck of the woods, I put my ear to the ground. From what I hear, she has no desire to return to electoral politics anytime soon.

International

Western Australia: Labor has swept the Liberal-National coalition out of power in state elections in Western Australia. This is significant because Labor often starts rolling up state victories like this before a big general election win at the national level.

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110 Comments

  • MosheM March 13, 2017 at 7:43 am

    Good stuff!


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • GOPTarHeel March 13, 2017 at 9:07 am

      A hard border with rUK would be an absolute disaster for the Scottish economy but it’s the most likely outcome of Scotland leaves the U.K. But if Sturgeon thinks she can get away with it, why not. Honestly Scotland has the world’s most annoying political culture anyway-everything gets blamed on mean old England despite the fact that Scotland’s bloated public sector can only stay afloat thanks to English subsidies.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA March 13, 2017 at 9:15 am

        We should start raising the concept of partitioning Scotland. The vast majority of Scottish territory wants to remain in the United Kingdom.

        Lets not forget that PM May is a lot more popular than David Cameron could ever be in Scotland.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 13, 2017 at 2:04 pm

      She won’t. Parliamentary supremacy means the Scottish Parliament can only hold a referendum at the pleasure of Westminster. Hell, Westminster could even abolish the Scottish Parliament if they wanted to.

      Considering that the Tories get almost no seats from Scotland and don’t need any seats from Scotland, they can safely ignore this.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA March 13, 2017 at 3:17 pm

        In addition, where the Tories hold seats is pretty strong pro-UK so defying Holyrood is probably good politics where the Tories play.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • GorrestFump March 13, 2017 at 9:17 am

    Connie Pillich has announced she will run for Governor in OH, she joins ex Rep Betty Sutton and state Rep Joe Schiavoni.

  • Mayor Perk March 13, 2017 at 9:19 am

    OH-LD-51: State Rep. Wes Retherford (R) arrested for driving under the influence. He was passed out in his car at 7:45 AM in a McDonald’s parking lot.

    http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/03/ohio_state_representative_arre.html#incart_river_home_pop


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Izengabe March 13, 2017 at 12:05 pm

      If Retherford was passed out, sleeping it off in a parked car in a parking lot how could be have been DRIVING under the influence? Isnt it implied in the very definition of “sleeping in a parked car” that he was not driving?


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Mayor Perk March 13, 2017 at 12:14 pm

        Pretty sure this exact legal question was a topic on my Crim Law final way back when *shudder*

        If the car is running, then I think per Ohio law you are operating it. Hence the OVI charge.

        The Dayton Daily News article goes into further detail and says he actually passed out while in the drive-thru line.

        http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/local/ohio-rep-wes-retherford-allegedly-passed-out-mcdonald-drive-thru/X9RzEdvYmpq2aUeo5uPbbN/?ecmp=daytondaily_social_twitter_2014_politics_sfp


        30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

        • Izengabe March 13, 2017 at 12:40 pm

          LOL! Passing out in the drive-thru certainly is a different matter.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • BostonPatriot March 13, 2017 at 4:26 pm

            Depends on the jurisdiction but some states go even further and will charge DUI if you are in “physical control” of the vehicle. That can include sleeping in the backseat with the engine off if you have the keys on your person (personally I think that’s a ridiculous thing to prosecute someone for so long as the vehicle is parked somewhere safe, as sleeping it off in the backseat is actually a responsible decision).

  • HS March 13, 2017 at 9:44 am

    I really doubt Liz Warren is in any danger. Massachusetts still votes heavily for Democrats at the federal level, and this is unlikely to change in the near future. The fact that Republicans do well in most races for Governor is immaterial.

    Nevertheless, I am glad all these candidates are running. If lightning does hit, you have to have a decent candidate to take advantage.

    • cer March 13, 2017 at 10:30 am

      Unfortunately, I’m afraid you are right because when it comes to electing their DC officials, the voters in MA usually have acted like sheep.

      • andyroo312 March 13, 2017 at 10:57 am

        LOL. But yes, Warren is guaranteed to win by at least 15 points.


        MA-7

      • Tekzilla March 13, 2017 at 11:10 am

        Curious if you’d say the same about Kansas?


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • Ryan_in_SEPA March 13, 2017 at 11:20 am

          Kansas is more like Hawaii or Rhode Island. All three are one party states where you essentially have both parties in one party.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

        • HS March 13, 2017 at 3:27 pm

          I would say Kansas and Massachusetts are very similar, from opposite ideological sides. The out party has success in races for Governor but is not competitive in Senate or Presidential races. The one exception was an off year special election that Brown somehow won. They even stopped being competitive the same time; during the Clinton years. Before that, the out party rarely won, but they sometimes kept things close.

          • cincojotas March 13, 2017 at 3:54 pm

            its also the historic base of both parties. Kansas is probably the most ancestrally R state to still vote R and Massachusetts is probably the most ancestrally D states to still vote D.

            • CTIronman March 13, 2017 at 4:02 pm

              MA was a hard R state until the pre 1924 wave of Catholic immigration flipped the state to Al Smith in 28. It wasn’t until the JFK era though when D’s won consistently statewide & cleaned out the R’s in the legislature

              • HS March 13, 2017 at 4:29 pm

                True although the Republicans were able to run real races for the Senate seat not held by Ted Kennedy until the 2000s.

                • BostonPatriot March 13, 2017 at 7:53 pm

                  And for the Senate seat formerly held by Kennedy in 2010 and 2012.

        • cer March 13, 2017 at 4:23 pm

          As a conservative Tek, I obviously prefer my sheep over your sheep, and I need not remind you that this is a conservative site.

  • w920us March 13, 2017 at 10:28 am

    After reading the Democracy Corps poll, it’s amusing seeing this gem for the final Democracy Corps poll before the 2016 election, which of course DK then declared the election over.

    New Poll: Democracy Corps Says Clinton Boasts ‘Commanding’ 12-Point Lead
    http://www.nationalmemo.com/new-poll-democracy-corps-clinton-commanding-12-point-lead/


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • rdelbov March 13, 2017 at 10:48 am

      Yup another poll that really really off in 2016.

      • w920us March 13, 2017 at 10:54 am

        Seriously! Off by double digits.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • andyroo312 March 13, 2017 at 10:58 am

    Michael Dukakis just endorsed Setti Warren in MA-Gov.


    MA-7

    • Mayor Perk March 13, 2017 at 11:01 am

      Took a break from cleaning up garbage?


      30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Tekzilla March 13, 2017 at 11:11 am

      I wonder if hes connected to the party anymore? I’d imagine he wouldn’t do this if Moulton or someone else could enter, but maybe he knows.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • rdelbov March 13, 2017 at 11:15 am

        I understand that there is a long time family and political connection between this Warren family and the Duke.

  • Manhatlibertarian March 13, 2017 at 12:22 pm

    Putin Spokesman Dmitry Perkov said that Russian US Ambassador Sergey Kislyak met with officials from both the Trump and Clinton campaigns to talk about bilateral relations during the campaign and that was a normal part of his job. Perkov said Kislyak met with “…people working in think tanks advising Hillary or advising people working for Hillary.” He also said Kislyak had “…lots of meetings of this kind.” I haven’t heard much about the meetings with Hillary people to date, although there has been plenty of stories about meetings with Trump people.

    http://thehill.com/policy/international/323582-kremlin-spokesman-russian-ambassador-met-with-advisers-to-clinton

  • Izengabe March 13, 2017 at 12:53 pm

    The Trump administration seems to have no idea how to staff their White House. Trump has more than 1,900 vacancies to fill. Trump named only 20 sub-Cabinet level positions (including 2 who withdrew) and has a huge list of ambassadorships, counsel positions, and commissioners to fill. Trump’s Office of Presidential Personnel had only 18 people working in it (one-fifth the number employed by President Bill Clinton at this point in his presidency). This ghost office is captained by 38-year-old John DeStefano, a former political director for former House speaker John Boehner. His only major personnel experience has been advising newly elected 2010 tea-party members on whom to hire.

    Read the whole thing. Its kind of insane how unprepared they were to take over. Its pretty clear Trump had no expectations on winning and no clear idea on how to staff the government if he did:
    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/445709/trumps-skeletal-crew-sub-cabinet-positions-unfilled


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • TexasR March 13, 2017 at 1:03 pm

      This merely adds credence to the fact that, as you stated many times, both Max Bialystock and the Donald were as surprised as everyone that Springtime for Hitler was such a runaway success.


      Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
      #KeepFreeTradeGreat

      • Mugwump March 13, 2017 at 1:38 pm

        Trump expecting to win or not had nothing to do with these problems since he delegated staffing to Christie and when he went that work went with him.


        Trumpocrat who wants to MAGA WI-06

        • StatenIslandTest March 13, 2017 at 3:14 pm

          Yes i think Christie (R-WFAN Sportsradio) had people in the Acela bubble going through the motions on appointments expecting a Trump loss.


          31, Jersey City

    • Manhatlibertarian March 13, 2017 at 1:13 pm

      Yes although the Dems have been obstructionist about appointments in the Senate, I have posted previously that this Admin has been slow to nominate candidates for the many government posts that the Pres can fill. Now there are 46 US Attorney positions to fill-how prepared is this Admin to quickly fill them? And what about the over 100 vacant federal judgeships? It is one thing to complain about disloyal holdovers from the Obama Admin and use of career bureaucrats with uncertain loyalties, but then you have to move quickly to nominate replacements and fill vacancies.

      • CTIronman March 13, 2017 at 1:27 pm

        There are a number of putative candidates being mentioned here in CT. Can’t speak for elsewhere

    • Mugwump March 13, 2017 at 1:35 pm

      Trump thought that most White House positions were nonpartisan and so was really overwhelmed by the hiring process (Especially when Christie was let go since he was put in charge of hiring those people to begin with.) NR is right in that Trump has some blame for that but I mostly blame Reince since it was his job to run the white house inner workings and as a careerist, has no excuse for not knowing how to do just that. Mattis and Trump have also been fighting over appointments which is the reason DOD isn’t filled yet.


      Trumpocrat who wants to MAGA WI-06

      • Izengabe March 13, 2017 at 1:58 pm

        Please. It is common knowledge that Donald Trump takes forever to hire anyone. The man needs 15 episodes to hire 1 intern. How people couldnt see this coming is beyond me. This has literally been broadcast for years.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • TexasR March 13, 2017 at 2:06 pm

          Speaking of that, how do we know that he won’t be cutting a season of The Apprentice from the White House to fill these positions?


          Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
          #KeepFreeTradeGreat

        • jncca March 13, 2017 at 2:06 pm

          Comment of the day.


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • Son_of_the_South March 13, 2017 at 2:11 pm

            Agreed. I lol’d pretty hard.


            23, R, DC-AL
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • Manhatlibertarian March 13, 2017 at 2:46 pm

          Maybe true, but how involved does Trump get in approving positions below cabinet level (DOD is probably an exception)? I suspect he will largely rubber stamp nominations he is presented with. So I agree with the poster above that Reince needs to do a better job getting these nominations moving through the process; it is going on 2 months now for the Trump Administration.

          • Izengabe March 13, 2017 at 3:12 pm

            Are we sure Donald Trump isn’t making candidates for Undersecretary of the Interior run a concessions stands at Yellowstone for a week to determine who gets hired?


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Manhatlibertarian March 13, 2017 at 1:01 pm

    Despite lib Dem claims that green energy like wind and solar power is the wave of the future and the Trump Admin is wrong not to embrace it, a look at other countries reveals a mixed picture. Green energy subsidies have led to soaring energy prices in Australia and Germany; in Australia things got so bad the government had to re-open a closed natural gas plant. In Sweden the government had to admit a wind power subsidy program was too costly and eliminated subsidies and shut down wind turbines. In Britain power plants are using wood pellets as opposed to coal or natural gas because it is “renewable energy”; but wood pellets probably cause more environmental problems that natural gas or even coal.

    In fact the US has reduced carbon emissions more than the EU recently because of more use of cleaner burning natural gas. Yet lib Dem politicians like Gov Brown in Cal and Cuomo in NY are all out for green energy programs. Cuomo has forced the closure of 2 huge nuclear plants in 4 years that serve NYC and Westchester, claiming he can replace the non carbon emitting nuclear energy source with non polluting energy sources and with no big price increases; we shall see.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/columnists/europes-lesson-teaches-us-dont-go-green/

    • CTIronman March 13, 2017 at 1:12 pm

      More reliance on power generated Upstate & sent to NYC via transmission lines. More blackouts ala 1965, 1977, & 2003 when this grid overloads

      • Manhatlibertarian March 13, 2017 at 1:27 pm

        The Cuomo Admin is hoping to get at least part of the “green power” to replace the Indian Point nuclear power plants from Quebec hydroelectric power stations, which means yet another new transmission line must be constructed first. Not clear where the rest of the replacement power will come from; there are some wind power stations planned off of Long Island but they are not going to produce that much power in 4 years. Likely that natural gas plants will have to provide some replacement power, but that causes more carbon emissions that nuclear plants, which is contrary to his goal. Westchester GOP Co CE Rob Astorino has been very critical of Cuomo’s Indian Point closure plan, even asking Energy Secretary Perry to intervene; if he runs for Gov as expected it will likely be an issue in the campaign. Cuomo claims the nuclear power plants are “not safe”.

        • CTIronman March 13, 2017 at 1:28 pm

          New transmission lines from QC will be NIMBYed by Upstate lefties

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 13, 2017 at 1:57 pm

      Economically, green energy subsidies cannot increase energy priecs because even subsidizing a relatively inefficient form of energy is still a subsidy to energy.

      The US also cut carbon emissions faster than the EU because Merkel decided to replace all of their nuclear power plants essentially mostly with coal power. As you hinted to, the liberal war against nuclear power increases carbon emissions much more than any liberal policy decreases them.

      Also, solar in the United States is much more successful than the EU. We both subsidize solar to some extent, but a subsidy to say, natural gas is also an indirect subsidy to solar energy. And cheap natural gas is a boon to solar. Another reason why the war that some liberals wage against natural gas is also insane from a carbon emissions or renewable energies standard. That being said, the Obama administration was actually fairly supportive of natural gas, it was almost entirely local/state-level Democrats who hated on it. Keystone and DAPL were largely symbolic moves to trick the Democratic base.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • Manhatlibertarian March 13, 2017 at 2:35 pm

        Yes Merkel has been an advocate of Green Power, particularly solar power, but in a seemingly contradictory move is phasing out Germany’s carbon free nuclear power plants. According to the article I read her electricity policies have led German consumers to pay 3 times what the typical American customer does for electric power. I wonder if the German consumer just accepts this or maybe this is another reason she is falling behind the SDP in the polls. Maybe GerGOP would know.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA March 13, 2017 at 3:23 pm

        Obama was about as pro-fracking as the average Republican.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • CTIronman March 13, 2017 at 3:02 pm

      The wood fired plant in the U.K. was originally built to use locally sourced coal in Yorkshire & now runs on lumber harvested in the SE US & shipped across the Atlantic

  • RogueBeaver March 13, 2017 at 1:17 pm

    National Journal: Senate Dems are more inclined to stay with Trump, including Carper. https://twitter.com/KimberlyRailey/status/839839807857643522


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • rdelbov March 13, 2017 at 2:13 pm

      I tend to take with a grain of salt anything that the National Journal writes–IMO they are a step below Politico on the political spectrum.

      Saying that it is easier historically being a US senator in the minority and having your party out of power in the white house.

      1st as a minority senator who can just oppose things and not actually have to pass senate bills. Passing bills is hard work in the US senate.
      2nd when the white house is controlled by your party a US senator catches the heat for what they propose and they have little imput in affecting policy.

      In the senate minority and out of power can be sweet and easy. All you do is grip and complain then vote no.

      I might add that senate terms are for 6 years. Maybe Carper and Nelson are seeing their situations to be set til 2024. Trump in White house and them in the minority.

    • krazen1211 March 13, 2017 at 2:26 pm

      This is the exact opposite of rational behavior. It would be easier to hand off seats in a Trump midterm rather than any other time.

      • rdelbov March 13, 2017 at 2:34 pm

        D senators and congress people should be looking to retire during the higher turnout presidential elections but as senators they can’t always wait?

        I might add if things go badly for the GOP and Trump in 2017/2018 economy or policy wise then Carper and Nelson might reconsider and retire. DiFi IMO will eventually retire but to be relevant I guess she is hanging in there right now.

        • segmentation_fault March 13, 2017 at 2:41 pm

          No — if things go badly for the GOP, they will be less likely to retire, because it will be easier for them to get re-elected.

          • krazen1211 March 13, 2017 at 3:31 pm

            That depends. McCain didn’t take a hike in 2010 and so we were kind of stuck with him in 2016. Ted Kennedy didn’t leave in 2006 and you got Scott Brown for a while.

            Eventually folks have to hang it up.

  • CTIronman March 13, 2017 at 3:35 pm

    The pine box ends careers just like the ballot box

  • w920us March 13, 2017 at 3:41 pm

    Winter Storm Stella is going to slam New York City
    http://nypost.com/2017/03/13/blizzard-warning-issued-as-winter-storm-stella-gears-up/

    DC will likely grind to a halt from even a hint of snow. And on a side note, the name Stella just evokes memories of Elaine on Seinfeld screaming out the name Stella.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • StatenIslandTest March 13, 2017 at 3:53 pm

      This storm could be make or break for DeBlasio. Bad plowing in the outer boroughs (especially Queens) could worsen his grip. However my guess is the operatives and himself will make sure theres no slip ups in a reelect.

      In other Tri-State news SNL Alum Joe Piscopo (I-Entertainment Wing/North Ward Center) seems more likely to run Independent than Republican if he runs for Gov. The second part of my tag is my suspicion that the Adubato/Joe D machine out of Newarks North Ward is pissed about to support Phil Murphy (D-Spying on Germany) and hoping maybe to upend the Gov race with Piscopo.


      31, Jersey City

    • Son_of_the_South March 13, 2017 at 3:59 pm

      The District is going to be absolutely miserable tomorrow. I think I’m just going to camp out at the cigar shop all day and drink or something.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Izengabe March 13, 2017 at 4:13 pm

      @W92OUS

      Come on! That’s a Streetcar Named Desire! Get the joke if you are going to reference it.
      https://youtu.be/6q3fBK6LbCc


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • MaxwellsDemon March 13, 2017 at 4:19 pm

    CBO Report is out: http://static.politico.com/eb/9c/e933fe474128a624d2a46157a7ef/cbo-report-ahca.pdf

    14 million more uninsured under Ryan’s plan according to their estimates.

    • Izengabe March 13, 2017 at 4:23 pm

      Which is why the politics of this is stupid for the GOP. They’ve allowed the Democrats to frame the debate in terms of “how many people have insurance” instead of how can we make our healthcare system better and more affordable. The goal should be could healthcare at reasonable cost not to sell every American an insurance contract. A major political liability with the GOPcare bill is its failure to change the terms of the debate which insures the GOP will always lose to the people offering more other peoples money.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • GOPTarHeel March 13, 2017 at 4:31 pm

        I used to be sympathetic to this argument, but I’ve been without health insurance for the last two months and if I get hit by a bus or have a major health crisis my financial future is pretty much permanently ruined. That weighs at the back of my mind constantly. People don’t want “options”-god knows trying to navigate the Obamacare exchange has been a waking nightmare-they want economic security. Try to change the terms of the debate all you want-that 62 year old in West Virginia who gets priced out of their insurance permanently isn’t going to care, and will punish us deservedly if we pass this bill.


        R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

        • Izengabe March 13, 2017 at 4:39 pm

          The 65 year old in West Virginia has Medicare so this debate means nothing for him.

          Yes the current system is a disaster and the price distortions that it creates means people without insurance are overcharged for basic medical services and face bankruptcy and economic ruin if faced with a major health crisis since affordable and portable catastrophic insurance plans are not allowed.

          The right political course for the GOP is also the proper policy course. Blow up the entire current system, start from scratch and present an entirely new way of paying for healthcare in America.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • GOPTarHeel March 13, 2017 at 4:50 pm

            (I edited it to 62 year olds) And if that reform doesn’t work, millions of people could lose the ability to pay for basic medical coverage!


            R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

    • dforston March 13, 2017 at 4:24 pm

      Outlays reduced by $1.2 trillion
      Revenue reduced by $0.9 trillion
      Deficit drops by $337 billion

      • GOPTarHeel March 13, 2017 at 4:35 pm

        30 billion per year to play around with. That could reduce the ranks of the uninsured by millions. We could do even more if the GOP stopped prioritizing tax cuts for the rich uber alles.


        R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

        • TexasR March 13, 2017 at 4:37 pm

          Or the federal government could give that money back to the people that earned it, which is what I thought the party was all about.


          Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
          #KeepFreeTradeGreat

          • GOPTarHeel March 13, 2017 at 4:43 pm

            We aren’t the Libertarian Party, so the interests of societal cohesion can occasionally trump the need to cut every millionaire’s taxes.


            R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

            • TexasR March 13, 2017 at 4:45 pm

              We’re cutting everyone’s taxes though. That said however, when did massive budget-busting entitlements become a tenet of the Republican party?
              Getting this back to electoral politics, how could this possibly be helpful in the long-run when most of the people you are proposing we help will, in the next few decades, be gone and replaced with voters who are less winnable?


              Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
              #KeepFreeTradeGreat

              • GOPTarHeel March 13, 2017 at 4:48 pm

                Since we didn’t repeal the New Deal under Eisenhower or Medicare under Nixon or Reagan, not just because it would have been a permanent political death wish, but because it would have been disastrous for human beings and communities. Most Republicans don’t tolerate those programs-they embrace them as necessary and good.


                R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

              • Son_of_the_South March 13, 2017 at 4:48 pm

                That’s enough policy, guys. Back to elections, please.


                23, R, DC-AL
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • kewgardens March 13, 2017 at 4:46 pm

          Politically, they should probably use some of the $300 billion to reduce premiums for 50 to 65 year-olds.

          But the genius of the $300 billion surplus is that they can now address whatever becomes the opposition’s most effective political attack against the plan.

          • MaxwellsDemon March 13, 2017 at 4:49 pm

            Well the most effective attack is the 24 million uninsured, so unless you want to dump that $300 million back into reinsuring them and not repealing Obamacare at all then, you need a better plan.

            • kewgardens March 13, 2017 at 4:56 pm

              A significant percentage of these uninsured will be (1) voluntary, (2) young and/or (3) Democratic-leaning. I’m not sure that the electoral implications will be catastrophic for the GOP.

              That said, reducing the number of 50-65 year-old uninsureds will be advantageous for the GOP. And the majority of these folks will be on Medicare within ten years.

              • reedc March 13, 2017 at 5:07 pm

                Since this plan will never pass the Senate it won’t matter what the $300 billion would hypothetically be used for. Instead we are asking GOP reps to go on record and vote for a plan that will never pass and therefore only serves the purpose of allowing Dems to run attack ads not only about the increasing uninsured but also the HUGE increase in premiums that this plan produces for certain segments of population, particularly highly engaged seniors.

                • Izengabe March 13, 2017 at 5:26 pm

                  ^^^THIS^^^^

                  If the GOP is pulling out a plan that won’t pass they could at least create one that we won’t be ashamed of.


                  Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • jncca March 13, 2017 at 5:09 pm

    Nate Cohn posted a chart showing Trump-Clinton vote based on outcome of Trump/Ryan Care.

    Voters losing $5,000 or more per year from this bill went 59% Trump – 37% Clinton.

    Voters who are not hurt by this bill split 48% Clinton – 45% Trump.

    Voters who lose $0 to $2,5000 per year from the bill went 48% Clinton – 44% Trump.

    The bill basically hurts your voters disproportionately.

    Note: This covers only the subsidy changes, not changes to Medicaid, which I’d imagine disproportionately hurts Clinton voters.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • GOPTarHeel March 13, 2017 at 5:12 pm

      The tax cuts (all high end) probably disproportionately benefit Clinton voters too. A plan that boosts Scarsdale at the price of Myrtle Beach isn’t going to fly in the Trump-era GOP.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

      • jncca March 13, 2017 at 5:20 pm

        I’m not certain about that part. First of all, the GOP members of the House (who mostly love the tax cuts for the wealthy) want to win back a lot of those voters.

        Second, at least that part is ideological. Changing the subsidy structure isn’t really ideological the same way; it’s just a way to say Obamacare is “repealed” when it isn’t.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • rdelbov March 13, 2017 at 6:04 pm

          Let’s just say that IMO the CBO and its conclusions are not much more then guesses.

          Their scores on the Obamacare rollout (2010) were horrid. Totally on its estimates.

          COHN IMO is totally off base on his analysis. Worse then CBO.

          IMO their estimates that 60-64 age folks would see higher premiums, due to Obamacare being repealed is pure fantasy.

          • jncca March 13, 2017 at 6:18 pm

            On what grounds? I’d assume you must have a deep knowledge of health care policy to view the CBO as so incorrect, especially when conservative wonks are mostly agreeing with what they have to say?


            24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

            • rdelbov March 13, 2017 at 8:00 pm

              Trump White house- Trump Budget director-Congressional leaders/Senate leaders also dispute CBO numbers–not just myself!! I do believe I have a fair amount of experience as an accountant and small business consultant to dispute CBO on this matter.

              1st Exactly how does CBO tell the difference between expected insurance increases under Obamacare and supposed Ryancare policy costs–They guess. Pure and simple. They guess as to what Obamacare would cost in 2018/2019 then apply a higher guess to Ryancare. They make a ton of underlying assumptions-and I might add they were wrong on these same assumptions from 2010 to 2016.

              2nd IMO what they do not understand is this. Many seniors (age 50-64) without significant savings outside of a 401K or IRAs and who are self employed will remove themselves from the insurance market. We are paying yuge premiums right now but frankly we are forced to as Obamacare has eliminated our insurance options. At our age individual premium policies that are fairly affordable for the young are very expensive for individuals. We would be better off paying for doctor visits and spinning the wheel of fortune by buying a very high deductible(+20K) catastrophic plan. What CBO does not take into account is how skewed the market is for us. The individual mandate bites for us as well. I think the insurance market will change after Obamacare is repealed and this CBO projection does not take that into account.

    • krazen1211 March 13, 2017 at 6:22 pm

      So basically Cohn is ignoring most of the money.

      County by county analysis is kind of flawed because Trump won nearly ever county in the nation. To the extent that there are counties that ‘lose’, there’s going to be more Trump counties. But, at the left points out when looking at that massive red map of the nation, counties don’t vote.

      The Urban/Rural argument is far better when it doesn’t point to counties and extrapolate based on dubious math, mainly due to the cost of providers. I see an Alaska kickback coming up in this bill at some point. And it is probably something to address with that $300 billion.

  • reedc March 13, 2017 at 5:30 pm

    I know everyone here will be shocked, but I actually agree with Frum on this:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/davidfrum/status/841399030903164929

    By the end of this fiasco that the House GOP leadership has created with their approach to replacing Obamacare, they will be gone in favor of a Trumpist leadership. It may be after the midterms, but I think it will happen.

    • Izengabe March 13, 2017 at 5:46 pm

      This is the truly sad part of all this. Its yet another incompetent betrayal by conservative leadership which will allow the populist to fully take over the GOP. Sad!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • krazen1211 March 13, 2017 at 6:02 pm

      Of course, David Frum is the same idiot who laughed when Trump started competing in Michigan.

      But it probably wouldn’t be a bad thing for our party anyway.

  • w920us March 13, 2017 at 5:50 pm

    Indian-Americans rise to key roles in Trump’s administration
    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article137803748.html

    Roll call vote on Seema Verma occurring now.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • w920us March 13, 2017 at 6:25 pm

      Confirmed 55-43. Donnelly, Heitkamp, King & Manchin broke ranks to confirm her.
      Isakson & Peters, absent or no votes.


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • bluewahoo March 13, 2017 at 5:58 pm

    VA Gov: NARAL endorses Ralph Northam. Somewhat predictable IMO.

    It’ll be interesting to see if they endorse in the Lt. Gov race. Susan Platt was on their VA exec board.

    https://twitter.com/NARAL/status/841333150605299713

    • FiveAngels March 13, 2017 at 7:23 pm

      Cultural left (NARAL, gun control lobby, Gaystapo etc.) lending themselves to technocrat Democrats so they can pretend that they are actually to the left of Bold Progressives. We’ve seen this when Hillary went after Bernie on guns in 2016, and we will see ton of this in 2018 and 2020.

  • bluewahoo March 13, 2017 at 6:29 pm

    More VA news. The DCCC has been trying to recruit Jennifer Wexton to run against Comstock in the VA-10 in 2018. I have long thought she was the best candidate the Democrats had in this district (and really missed out on this year’s anti-trump wave in that district). She ran county wide in Loudon in 2011 and lost, won the special for Mark Herring’s largely Loudon county based senate seat in 2014, then won reelection in 2015.

    http://bluevirginia.us/2017/03/exclusive-virginia-state-sen-jennifer-wexton-recruited-run-congress-barbara-comstock-2018

    • fzw March 13, 2017 at 7:13 pm

      How did Comstock do in her Senate district? I’m guessing she just barely lost it since she barely won Loudoun County, and this seat is several points left of the county as a whole. Her or Kathleen Murphy would make it an insta-tossup IMO


      NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
      #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

      • bluewahoo March 13, 2017 at 7:50 pm

        I did some VERY back of napkin math on this. In the 41 precincts in both Loudon and in Wexton’s district, Bennett beat Comstock 33,272-27,646, or 54.6%-45.4%. Wexton beat her opponent in these 41 precincts 12,696-10,664, or 54.3%-45.6%.

        I know some of the Fairfax precincts in Wexton’s district are in the 11th CD, so I just left them out.

        • rdelbov March 13, 2017 at 8:18 pm

          Not impressed with Wexton–decent but not overwhelming in her senate district.

          Turnout will be 40% lower in this district in 2018-the blend of voters will be tougher for the Ds.

          • edtorres04 March 13, 2017 at 9:12 pm

            Ideally Comstock will be challenging Kaine.

            • rdelbov March 13, 2017 at 9:22 pm

              Comstock is the R flip side of the Kind/Ryan/Bustos primary problem. Either because of geography or politics a candidate can be out of step with a primary electorate even as they are a great GE candidate. If we could annoint Comstock she might could beat Kaine but IMO she would have trouble in a VA GOP primary.

              • CTIronman March 14, 2017 at 1:31 pm

                Comstock is not facing Kaine. His approvals are high & Trump’s VA approval is not. Her best path is to shoe leather the crap out of VA10 which is inapplicable to a statewide in the 12th largest state.

                • Izengabe March 14, 2017 at 1:32 pm

                  Agreed. Comstock has worked VERY hard to get to Congress. She’s not going to throw that away on an uphill Senate run vs Kaine.


                  Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • West Virginia Democrat March 14, 2017 at 3:41 am

        I think Kathleen Murphy, is probably the stronger D candidate. She frankly reminds me of Comstock. Same area, both tough campaigners who can raise ungodly sums of money (god bless McLean and Great Falls) and both who have (unfairly or not) cultivated moderate reputations in Richmond and DC.

        Wexton is I think in some way higher ceiling/lower floor.
        Yes, she lost Loudon DA in 2o11, but plenty of success politicians have lost first go around to come back and been fine. I’d caution comparing her 2015 results to 2016, simply because you are dealing with different elections. The makeup of voters in a 2015 election where state senate is leading the ballot with zero federal and statewide races vs 2016 is a bit like apples and oranges.

        The downside for Wexton is that she also could be a paper, tiger candidate. Great on paper. In the field, who knows. Can she make inroads into the Fairfax county precincts that may be Dem at the top, but still vote R down ticket. How does she eat into Comstock out west? Lots of unanswered Qs


        R/32/NV-3

  • Manhatlibertarian March 13, 2017 at 9:34 pm

    On Saturday 400 plus Manhattan Dem County Committee members picked Harlem Community Board 10 Chair Brian Benjamin as the Dem nominee for the 30th SD in the May 23 Special Election (no primary in NY for special elections); this was State Senator Bill Perkin’s old seat, which he left to join the NYC Council. Benjamin’s main rival was Rev. Al Taylor, the COS for Assemblyman Denny Farrell. Benjamin was backed by Dem Manhattan County Chair Keith Wright, while Taylor was backed by Harlem Congressman Adriano Espaillat, who is considering challenging Wright for the Dem Manhattan County Chair position. Repubs have virtually no chance in this heavily Dem, minority district.

    Also of significance is that although Benjamin says he would like to see the IDC Dem faction and the mainline Dems in the State Senate unite, he has vowed to join the mainline Dems.

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

  • Kantastic March 14, 2017 at 12:49 pm

    I really have a hard time figuring you out. Were you a #NeverTrump guy, you sound very sarcastic in tone towards the President. But you’ve obviously no love for Democrats of course, so you sound like you’re in some unknown grey area.

    • roguemapper March 14, 2017 at 1:24 pm

      FYI: In order to reply to someone you should hit the “Reply” button in the upper right corner of their comment, otherwise your reply will post to the bottom of the thread as it did here. In any case, the answer is probably yes with regard to whoever you have in mind. Well, unless it’s VBKC. No one can really figure him out but he was all-in for the Donald.


      Dem NC-11

    • Izengabe March 14, 2017 at 1:31 pm

      If it was me (and I’m only guessing it might be because I am generally sarcastic) the answer is simple and there is no grey area. I am a conservative. I support politicians who are conservative and advance conservative causes. When Trump acts like a conservative I will support him. When he acts like a big government populist I will oppose him. As for the Democrats they are always for big government socialism so no love for them from me.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

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