Political Roundup for March 14th, 2017

Please check back this afternoon for a preview and open thread for tomorrow’s Dutch election.

President:

Snow: Because it’s 2017 it is now the job of the President of the United States to shovel snow.

Trump administration: The Trump administration has more than 1,900 vacancies to fill. Trump named only 20 sub-Cabinet level positions (including 2 who withdrew) and has a huge list of ambassadorships, counsel positions, and commissioners to fill. Trump’s Office of Presidential Personnel had only 18 people working in it (one-fifth the number employed by President Bill Clinton at this point in his presidency). This ghost office is captained by 38-year-old John DeStefano, a former political director for former House speaker John Boehner. His only major personnel experience has been advising newly elected 2010 tea-party members on whom to hire. Considering Donald Trump takes 15 episodes to hire 1 intern this slow pace of hiring should have been entirely expected.

Cuomo: New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has hired two fundraisers from Florida to help plan events and connect him with donors in the state. Hiring fundraisers in the swing state sources say shows he is laying the groundwork for a presidential campaign in 2020. He already has raised $22 million for his re-election bid next year and over the weekend Donald Trump fired the biggest threat to Andrew Cuomo’s political career (Preet Bharara).

Governor:

AL-Gov: State Auditor Jim Zeigler (R) has released a new book called “The Making of the People’s Governor 2018″ and is openly contemplating a run for Governor in 2018. Zeigler has been a very vocal critic of scandal tarred Gov. Bentley (R) and has filed a lawsuit trying to force Alabama to hold a special election for US Senate seat Bentley appointed Luther Strange (R) to before 2018.

GA-Gov: Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) will run for Governor next year. The field to succeed a term-limited Gov. Nathan Deal (R) is wide-open and many other candidates could join the race.

MA-Gov: Former Governor Michael Dukakis (D) has agreed to serve on the campaign finance committee for  Newton Mayor Setti Warren (D) possible gubernatorial run.

MD-Gov: Former State Dept. official Alec Ross (D) said he would decide whether he plans to challenge Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan “in the next month.”

NJ-Gov: Democrat Tim Johnson has launched a seven figure cable TV and internet ad buy. Johnson is the first candidate to qualify for public matching funds so New Jersey taxpayers will underwrite a portion of this campaign. Johnson is a huge underdog in the Democrat primary against Goldman Sachs moneybags Phil Murphy.

OH-Gov: Ex-state Rep. Connie Pillich (D) announced she will run for Governor. Pillich lost the 2014 State Auditor race to Josh Mandel (R) by 14 points so Pillich is hoping to fail up. Pillich is the third Democrat to enter the gubernatorial race joining Ohio Senate Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni and former Rep. Betty Sutton.

VA Gov: NARAL endorses Lt. Gov Ralph Northam (D) for Governor over former Rep. Tom Perriello (D).

Senate:

CA-Sen: Arnold will not be back. Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) put out a statement statement indicating he will not run for Senate in 2018. Schwarzenegger may have been the GOP’s best hope of preventing a liberal Democrat from winning this seat in 2018.

DE-Sen: Sen. Tom Carper (D), who will be 71 on election day 2018, has told the National Journal that Donald Trump makes him more likely to seek re-election. Carper indicated that he was leaning towards retirement when the thought Hillary Clinton would be president. Carper only has $245,000 in his campaign war chest but should be an easy favorite for re-election if he chooses to run again.

NRSC fundraising: The NRSC raised $5.1 million last month, the best month of fundraising they’ve had in an off-year February in the past 16 years. They have raised $9.3 million this year and have $10.3 million cash on hand. the DSCC has not released February fundraising figures yet, but they trailed the NRSC in January fundraising.

House:

IA-4: For the sake of his political career Rep. Steve King (R) needs to learn when to STFU.

NE-2: Former 1 term Rep. Brad Ashford (D) has ruled out trying to regain the seat he lost to Rep. Don Bacon (R) last fall but his wife has not. Ann Ferlic Ashford (D) is considering running for the House seat her husband lost last year.

SC-5: The filing deadline for the special election to succeeded Mick Mulvaney (R) has closed. Seven Republicans, three Democrats and five third party candidates have filed.  The party primaries will be held on May 2, a primary runoff if need will be on May 16 and the special election will be on June 20th. Republicans are heavily favored to hold this seat.

VA-10: Virginia state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D) is being recruited to run for congress against Rep. Barbara Comstock (R).

State, Local & Other:

CO-AG: State Rep. Joe Salazar (D) has filed paperwork to run for Colorado Attorney General. Incumbent Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R) is considering a run for governor next year, but could seek another term as Attorney General. Salazar is not related to former Sen. Ken Salazar (D) but could benefit from the name confusion. Boulder District Attorney Stan Garnett (D) is also considering a second run for Colorado Attorney General. Garnett lost to then Attorney General John Suthers (R) in 2010.

VA-State House: Democrats in Virginia are claiming the “Trump resistance” is leading to a surge in candidates running for the state house. Democrats said they had candidates running in 43 of the 66 House districts that Republicans currently represent, more than double the 21 GOP districts Democrats contested in 2015. Democrats also have challengers in all 17 GOP-held districts that went for Clinton.

NY-SD 30: The Harlem Democrat political machine choose real estate developer Brian Benjamin to be the Democrat candidate and the next state Senator pending the May 23rd special election. Benjamin is a close ally of New York County party Chariman Keith Wright. Once Benjamin wins this heavily Democrat district Democrats will once again have 32 elected members of the New York State Senate which is governed by 31 Republicans in alliance with 1 Democrat and the Independent Democrat Caucus. Benjamin has flirted with possibly joining the IDC.

Atlanta-Mayor: A  WSB-TV poll conducted by Landmark Communications and Rosetta Stone find City Counclor Mary Norwood (D) leading with 28.6% of the vote. No other candidate breaks 9%.

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121 Comments

  • GerGOP March 14, 2017 at 8:05 am

    Didn’t take long to figure out the author. Beautiful roundup, izengabe. e

  • Mayor Perk March 14, 2017 at 9:13 am

    Was Perriello pro-life as a Congressman?


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • bluewahoo March 14, 2017 at 10:49 am

      Voted yes on Stupak Amendmemt

    • GerGOP March 14, 2017 at 11:20 am

      I say no. He still voted for the entire thing after the Senate took the amendment out. Let’s not forget how these so-called “pro-life” Democrats folded.

  • Mayor Perk March 14, 2017 at 9:39 am

    SD-AL: SoS Shantel Krebs (R) is in.

    http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2017/03/13/krebs-announces-bid-us-house-seat/99141696/


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • krazen1211 March 14, 2017 at 10:59 am

    Our favorite pollster finds both Ryan and Trump with net favorable ratings in WI-01….and then asks a bunch of leading questions to get their standard results.

    http://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/170313PPP.pdf

  • rdelbov March 14, 2017 at 11:01 am

    MS Ashford does not impress me in NE2—-Bacon seems to be doing things right as far what needs to be done to hold this seat. Keeping his head down and working the district and focusing on local issues.

  • shamlet March 14, 2017 at 11:33 am

    House news:

    IA-4: 2016 nominee Kim Weaver (D) is running again. http://www.messengernews.net/news/local-news/2017/03/weaver-explores-second-run-for-congress/

    CA-25: Nonprofit exec Katie Hill (D) is in. She actually lives in the district. https://signalscv.com/2017/03/08/katie-hill-announces-candidacy-congress/

    NH-1: State Sen. Andy Sanborn (R), a staunch conservative, is apparently meeting with the NRCC. http://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-state-democrats-hit-gatsas-with-campaign-finance-complaint/9081755


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet March 14, 2017 at 11:37 am

    Charlotte Mayor: Councilman Kenny Smith (R) is in. http://www.wcnc.com/news/local/kenny-smith-announces-run-for-charlotte-mayor/421143882


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • GOPTarHeel March 14, 2017 at 11:56 am

      I see no realistic scenario for him to win now. Peacock was the ideal candidate, but couldn’t break through in either race, because even though white center-left moderates are willing to vote for Charlotte Rs, they won’t vote for them over white Democrats. And African Americans will turn out in sufficient numbers to beat any white Republican if an African American Democrat is on the ballot. So Smith probably can’t beat Roberts (who is now a leader of the #resistance in South Charlotte and has the social liberal vote locked up) and also can’t win against either Lyles or Ford, both African American moderates.


      R/NC-4.

      • segmentation_fault March 14, 2017 at 12:02 pm

        This would have probably been the best year for Peacock to run. Roberts has had a very tough term. But I think Ford and Lyles splitting the African American vote helps her win the primary.

        I think Kenny is more of a generic R, which is not all that electable in a D+20 city.


        En Marche! Make our planet great again!

        • shamlet March 14, 2017 at 12:13 pm

          Wonder if this is to get his name rec up for a run against Pittenger next year. That may be the best use of this run for him.


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

        • GOPTarHeel March 14, 2017 at 12:35 pm

          This would have been the best year for Peacock to run if Clinton had won, but South Charlotte swung enormously far left, leaving him with no base other than a few precincts of almost exurban territory outside of highway 485 as a base. Peacock was strongly against HB2 so that would have helped him I guess.


          R/NC-4.

  • shamlet March 14, 2017 at 11:38 am

    FL-Gov: Gillum under investigation over government email use. http://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2017/03/09/campbell-launches-gillum-investigation/98965010/


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet March 14, 2017 at 11:38 am

    AZ-SoS: State Sen. Katie Hobbs (D) is in. http://kjzz.org/content/445888/arizona-sen-hobbs-running-secretary-state


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Mayor Perk March 14, 2017 at 11:43 am

    NM-Land Commish: Former NM Land Commissioner Ray Powell (D) is in for a rematch against incumbent Aubrey Dunn (R).

    https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-mexico/articles/2017-03-13/powell-announces-candidacy-for-new-mexico-land-commissioner


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • cinyc March 14, 2017 at 12:25 pm

    For what it’s worth (and perhaps, not much), I ran a one-question Google Survey poll of the MT-AL special election. It’s either the canary in the coal mine for Republican Gianforte or a huge outlier. Given my and US Election Atlas’ one-question Google Surveys’ track record in the 2016 presidential election, there’s hope that it’s the latter.

    Weighted to 2014 CPS Voter data, it ended up (Democrat) Quist+17, with 329 usable responses. Unweighted, it’s Quist+14. More here:
    http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254607.msg5568355#msg5568355

    Raw Data:
    https://surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=rk5lck4rpysnab4pcv7wdqa6n4
    Weighting Spreadsheet:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQEGtHjrBcNshlVvy-FWKNRs0RKKuf3AJVSX9Fmcdj0/edit?usp=sharing

    • Mugwump March 14, 2017 at 12:39 pm

      Interesting. I could believe those numbers since I could see myself voting for Rob Quist over someone like Gianforte. I really do not understand why you all wanted the detached rich guy trying buy himself a seat in congress over the Trumpish State Senator during the state convention.


      Trumpocrat who wants to MAGA WI-06

      • CTIronman March 14, 2017 at 12:49 pm

        Dunno, dude who just ran a statewide might have infrastructure & name ID for a quick special election & newbie wouldn’t

        • Mayor Perk March 14, 2017 at 12:51 pm

          Not to mention piles of cash to quickly define newbies. Plus “detached rich guy” seems to work for Daines.


          30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

        • shamlet March 14, 2017 at 12:54 pm

          Let’s not forget he didn’t do that badly last year… in spite of Trump’s good showing in the state Bullock had a pretty high approval rating and nobody was really expecting Gianforte to get quite that close.


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Izengabe March 14, 2017 at 12:44 pm

      Montana is very hard to poll since they don’t allow robo-calling. We wanted to poll the Governor’s race last year but it cost way too much.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • shamlet March 14, 2017 at 12:55 pm

        This is as good a time to any to remind you that we’re still planning to poll GA-6 this June if we get enough money. Donate now!


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • rdelbov March 14, 2017 at 12:50 pm

      call me very skeptical!!

      In fact I put this poll in my polling trash can!

      • cinyc March 14, 2017 at 1:13 pm

        I’m skeptical, too. Like I said, the one-question Google Survey polls we conducted for the Presidential election weren’t so great. But if I pay for a Google Survey poll and get what seems to be an outlier, I’m still going to post it here, and maybe make a diary (I’m too lazy to do that today, hence the link to Atlas). It makes no sense to sit on it.

        The real question is whether to bother paying for more one-question Google Surveys if they keep on producing trash.

        • shamlet March 14, 2017 at 1:43 pm

          I would say no. Given my own experience it’s very hard to get worthwhile results from those GCS surveys except as an adjunct to phone polling because of 1) demographics, 2) low response quality (i.e. a huge number of undecideds), and 3) random error of people just clicking anything to see their content.

          With IVR though, the two work very well together – IVR skews way too old while the GCS skew way to young, so if you only use one or the other you sometimes wind up having to give absurd weights to demographics. You can also have more freedom to drop bad GCS results without getting to an absurdly low sample size. Especially for a special election where the demos are likely to skew much older I don’t think it’s of a lot of use.


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

          • cinyc March 14, 2017 at 2:28 pm

            It’s funny – despite the obvious GCS methodological issues, when I’ve drilled down to things like regional breakdowns, they usually make some intuitive sense. Here, Eastern Montana was more pro-Gianforte than Western Montana. I’d expect that, as Western Montana is more Democratic than Eastern Montana. IIRC, In my October South Dakota presidential poll, West River was more pro-Trump than East River, and so on.

            FWIW, the late middle age (55-64) and seniors (65+) that are most likely to turn out in a special election were pretty strong Quist groups in my Google Surveys sample. Only the Gen Xers were pro-Gianforte. Yes, the sample sizes are small, though. The age divide is why the weighted numbers were more pro-Quist than the unweighted.

            I’ll probably run another poll closer to the election in late May to see how far off it is. If it’s dead wrong, the GS experiment will be over.

      • GoBigRedState March 14, 2017 at 1:31 pm

        So do I. Somebody pointed out in that thread linked above that this same polling method showed Hillary with large leads in Kansas. Also when almost as many people say they aren’t voting than choose the candidate who “won” the poll, it makes it even more hard to believe.


        45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants #RIP27

        • Izengabe March 14, 2017 at 1:34 pm

          Don’t blame the polls. If it wasn’t for the Russian hackers Hillary would have won Kansas in a landslide! 😉


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • GoBigRedState March 14, 2017 at 1:47 pm

          Another comment-I don’t get why people on there think Quist is favored. None of the national analysts think that. Kind of reminds me why I almost never read those US Election Atlas forums.


          45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants #RIP27

          • Son_of_the_South March 14, 2017 at 1:49 pm

            Huh? I’m pretty sure that most of RRH’s denizens don’t think that Quist will win.


            23, R, DC-AL
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • Izengabe March 14, 2017 at 2:03 pm

              Agreed. We think Quist is a far left BernieBot who is way out of the ideological mainstream of Montana. With that said he’s a better candidate than Amanda Curtis for the sole reason that his cowboy hat is a better aesthetic fit for the state than her nose ring.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • fzw March 14, 2017 at 2:05 pm

            I doubt Quist is ahead too, and his competitiveness is probably solely due to people despising Gianforte, which is plausible.
            Fwiw, the resident Montana Republican with supposed party connections on that forum seems to think that the party is Coakleying the race away by nominatin Gianforte, but this is also a poster who is under the bizarre delusion that New Hampshire is a lost cause for Republicans and that 2016 was a fluke, so take that with a grain of salt.


            NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
            #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

            • GoBigRedState March 14, 2017 at 2:34 pm

              Same poster also has a Carol Shea-Porter for Congress banner in their signature which I found more than a bit odd for somebody who claims to be a Republican. Frankly, that person’s comments seem to be all over the place, so I don’t really trust their analysis.


              45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants #RIP27

        • cinyc March 14, 2017 at 2:12 pm

          The Google Survey Kansas issue is likely explained by the fact that IP addresses without any geographical data associated with them resolve to a lake in Kansas, plus a pretty small sample size for the state. The GCS poll that produced the Kansas results was a nationwide poll of thousands of people, using 4 questions to screen out the non-likely voters. As would be expected, sample sizes in smaller states like Kansas weren’t that high. We’ve never tried a Kansas-only poll to test the lake theory (in a state poll, we’d get a breakdown of where the respondents are by town) – but it makes sense.

          In a standard poll, the pollster weeds out those who say they aren’t registered/likely to vote with a screening question and/or RV sample. Screening questions are possible using Google Surveys, but it’s not cheap. I and other Atlas posters have tried the one-question methodology as a cheap (15c per respondent in a state poll) alternative. You then have to discard those who say they won’t vote, lowering the overall sample size, usually in the 300-400 range if you buy a 500-respondent survey.

          Yes, there are serious methodological issues with these Google Surveys polls.

  • Mayor Perk March 14, 2017 at 12:48 pm

    MT-AL Special Election: Libertarians nominated a candidate and will be on the ballot. 🙁

    http://www.ktvq.com/story/34732485/montana-libertarians-select-wicks-as-nominee-for-us-house-seat


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • FiveAngels March 14, 2017 at 1:19 pm

      God, I hate the Montana Libertarian Party.

  • MosheM March 14, 2017 at 1:14 pm

    https://twitter.com/alanhe/status/841694754232508417

    Graham


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • Manhatlibertarian March 14, 2017 at 2:40 pm

    Re the Roundup Story about the Dems picking Brian Benjamin to be their candidate in the NY SD30 special election on May 23. Although the Roundup piece indicates Benjamin has flirted with joining the IDC Dem faction as opposed to the Dem mainline State Senate one, IDC Chair Klein and Benjamin tell very different stories as to what happened at their meeting and even who requested it. What is important for RRH readers to know is that both in the nystateofpolitics article I quoted yesterday and the Observer article quoted in today’s Roundup, Benjamin has made it clear he will be joining the mainline Dem faction in the State Senate and not the IDC. In the Observer article Benjamin even states he will work to defeat the 8 IDC State Senate members in Dem primaries. So there is nothing good for IDC leader Klein in Benjamin getting the Dem nomination for the Harlem State Senate seat.

    • Izengabe March 14, 2017 at 2:57 pm

      If you believe that I got a bridge to sell you. Benjamin has made it clear he’s going to Albany to deal. Klein is in the deal making business. Perkins was not. Yes Benjamin is going to say he’s going to sit with the mainline Dems now. Anything else would be political suicide. But once in Albany he has said he wants to deal to bring everyone together and bring the most money back to Harlem.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Manhatlibertarian March 14, 2017 at 3:47 pm

        Well on the one hand anything can (and will) happen in Albany but considering Dem State Senate nominee Benjamin has even gone as far as to say he plans to campaign against IDC members in primaries I think it would be pretty hard for him to walk back that rhetoric and jump ship and join the IDC. There are significant elements within the NY Dem party that have made it clear they are going after those who defect to the IDC. In fact the latest defector to the IDC, State Senator Peralta of Queens, got kicked out of his local Dem club for joining the IDC. So I know from what you have said in the past you think Klein will nibble away members from the mainline Dems until they make him the Dem leader in the Senate, but while it is always possible he might pick up 1 or 2 more mainline Dems, in the end too may Dems dislike him as self serving and too greedy for power. There is also the demographic factor that Stewart-Cousins, the mainline Dem leader, is a black woman while Klein is a white man. So I would be very surprised to see Klein ending up as the Dem leader in the State Senate and I don’t see Benjamin jumping ship to help him.

  • rdelbov March 14, 2017 at 2:40 pm

    I think we missed this last week–Gorsuch got the very highest rating form ABA

    http://www.theblaze.com/news/2017/03/10/american-bar-association-gives-neil-gorsuch-its-highest-rating-for-the-supreme-court/

    so far Gorsuch has received high marks from everyone-everyone -everyone -everyone.

    Super choice.

    • FiveAngels March 14, 2017 at 2:47 pm

      While I’m very pleased with the Gorsuch pick, it should be noted that everyone on the short list would have gotten the same rating (Hardiman, Kethledge, Pryor, Sykes… all veteran federal appellate judges like Gorsuch) except maybe Thapar.

  • TexasR March 14, 2017 at 2:48 pm

    Wil and Beto’s Excellent Adventure: Due to flight cancellations, Wil Hurd and Beto O’Rourke, who both happened to be at an event in San Antonio are goingg all the way back to DC by car in hopes of making it on time to a vote tomorrow night.


    Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
    Be careful what you wish for

    • CTIronman March 14, 2017 at 2:53 pm

      Who’s John Candy & who’s Steve Martin?

      • Jon Henrik Gilhuus March 14, 2017 at 3:19 pm

        “THOSE AREN’T PILLOWS”


        The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
        - P.J. O'Rourke

  • krazen1211 March 14, 2017 at 3:18 pm

    PA voter registration tidbits. Still probably the most likely tipping point state in 2020. FWIW I think Wisconsin’s days of being a D PVI state are over. Pennsylvania is tougher to tell; Dems still won the row offices in 2016.

    https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/841700423291486208

    Brandon Finnigan
    @B_M_Finnigan

    In 25/67 counties in PA, R reg now higher than in Nov, in 24 more, up since Jan. Most reg # fall post-election…

    • segmentation_fault March 14, 2017 at 3:33 pm

      “Republican registration up in X counties” is pretty useless since 40% of the state lives in 6/67 counties.


      En Marche! Make our planet great again!

      • Manhatlibertarian March 14, 2017 at 3:59 pm

        Yes what you say is true about counties where people live but Finnigan also points out that in the last month Pa GOP registration is growing statewide while Dem registration continue to go down. So maybe hatred of Trump is “juicing up” some Dems to take action, but at least in Pa it is not showing up as Dem registration gains statewide.

      • krazen1211 March 14, 2017 at 4:07 pm

        This is quite literally the Hillary Clinton campaign strategy in Pennsylvania, wasn’t it?

      • Republican Michigander March 14, 2017 at 4:15 pm

        “”“Republican registration up in X counties” is pretty useless since 40% of the state lives in 6/67 counties.””””

        The votes in those 61 counties can potentially add up to the majority.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • segmentation_fault March 14, 2017 at 4:28 pm

          I’m not saying Republican registration isn’t up in Pennsylvania. I’m saying number of counties is a bad metric you want if you want to present some data point. Example: Trump won 84% of counties in the U.S. Did he get 84% of the vote?


          En Marche! Make our planet great again!

          • The Emperor March 14, 2017 at 4:39 pm

            It definately helps on the state legislative and congressional level. I bet that some of those counties are counties like Washington, Beaver, Cambria, Luzerne, and other Demosaur areas that Trump flipped massively. Areas that have many D state legislators. If the GOP can hold their own in SEPA and flip these areas, then that’s potential Ohio-esque legislative margins in PA. We did the same with the State Senate


            male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
            Rubio Republican

      • Greyhound March 14, 2017 at 4:49 pm

        Yeah, which counties is kind of important, though since he mentions the net sum is pretty low, I imagine its a bunch of small ones. Total GOP registrations are down statewide, but nowhere near as much as D ones over the same period.


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

      • CTIronman March 14, 2017 at 4:49 pm

        Except Trump’s margin in the other 61 counties overwhelmed them

  • RogueBeaver March 14, 2017 at 4:32 pm

    IL-GOV: Pritzker forms an exploratory committee. http://www.politico.com/states/illinois/story/2017/03/jb-pritzker-exploring-run-for-illinois-governor-110366


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • Tekzilla March 14, 2017 at 7:45 pm

      He’s much richer than Kennedy right?


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • BostonPatriot March 14, 2017 at 7:57 pm

        Correct, probably by 2 powers of 10.

  • Manhatlibertarian March 14, 2017 at 4:45 pm

    Well if you are a lib Dem who detests Trump there is always- New Zealand! Apparently applications by Americans for New Zealand citizenship has gone up 70% recently. Also in Oct 2016 just before the presidential election there were only 305 citizenship related visits by Americans to the relevant New Zealand webite, but these visits increased to 4146 right after the election. I suspect you will find similar numbers for Australia and Canada. Of course the amount of people who in the end actually do move will likely be much less, and I would guess they are largely affluent white liberal types. They are the types who will say things like “Well if the people of this country have elected a man like Trump to be Pres then I want nothing more to do with this country”. But well you know I didn’t like Trump and I voted for Johnson, but it didn’t make me want to flee the country, anymore than Obama winning did.

    Of course New Zealand often elects Conservative Governments, so it is no South Pacific San Francisco, but if these people want to run away then I say let them. Actually I was thinking maybe California could set up refugee processing centers for unhappy Red State Dems who are looking for friendlier climes. Why not since Cal these days often acts quite differently from the rest of the US. OK I’m not serious, but you know….

    https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/03/14/us-applications-for-new-zealand-citizenship-skyrocket-in-wake-of/21887643/

    • Jon March 14, 2017 at 6:30 pm

      Note that NZ appears to require 5+ years of permanent residency before applying for citizenship; so the ones that actually currently (and even in near future will) have been living there for some time.
      What those currently living in the US interested in becoming a citizen of NZ should instead be looking into is what it takes to get the NZ equivalent of a green card.


      45, M, MO-02

  • StatenIslandTest March 14, 2017 at 5:04 pm

    WATN: Possible Borough President Primary on Staten Island with Ex-Rep Grimm vs. Incumbent Oddo.

    http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2017/03/michael_grimm_for_staten_islan.html


    31, Jersey City

    • Manhatlibertarian March 14, 2017 at 5:28 pm

      Well I thought maybe we had seen the last of ex-Congressman Grimm, but maybe not. I don’t know that Oddo has done such a poor job as SI Borough Pres that he warrants a primary challenge,but the SI GOP does have its factions that are often at each other’s throats. We’ll have to see if anything comes out of this. Grimm may choose to bide his time and wait for a better opportunity.

      • shamlet March 14, 2017 at 8:24 pm

        All you need to know is that Oddo is (R/F) and Grimm is (R/M).


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Mayor Perk March 14, 2017 at 5:31 pm

    SC-Gov: State Rep. James Smith (D-Columbia) is close to getting in. He attended the DGA meeting in December and according to former Gov. Jim Hodges, is the only Dem laying groundwork for a run.

    http://www.postandcourier.com/news/south-carolina-governor-s-race-top-state-democrat-jaime-harrison/article_41348f2a-0849-11e7-8061-4bc494a3a6f5.html


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • Left Coast Libertarian March 14, 2017 at 6:18 pm

    San Bernardino County District Attorney Mike Ramos, a Republican, won’t run for state attorney general. Ramos was considered to be as strong a candidate as Republicans had for statewide office.

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-republican-mike-ramos-decides-not-to-1489519220-htmlstory.html

    • CTIronman March 14, 2017 at 6:25 pm

      No one holding a traditional stepping stone office (big city Mayor/DA) wants to step up for the CAGOP. Left pining for celebrity candidates

      • jncca March 14, 2017 at 6:53 pm

        Ramos planned to run for an open seat in a Clinton midterm. Instead he would be running against an incumbent in a Trump midterm. Big difference!


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • Left Coast Libertarian March 14, 2017 at 6:25 pm

    Politico’s “Why Trump’s prosecutor purge could haunt the GOP” is incredibly misleading. It gives one the idea that if not for Trump firing US attorneys, none would run for office. Of course, half have already left and there was nothing preventing the other half from running for office. It’s not like Trump made them Democrats.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/us-attorneys-elections-trump-2018-236022

    • GOPTarHeel March 14, 2017 at 6:40 pm

      It’s not like this is even new. Christie, Sessions, Susan Brooks, and George Holding were all US Attorneys. Should Obama or Clinton not have fired them because they could run for something?


      R/NC-4.

      • jncca March 14, 2017 at 6:53 pm

        Arguably yes regarding Christie. Having a conservative USAttorney for New Jersey is far preferable than a potentially very strong GOP presidential candidate.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • BostonPatriot March 14, 2017 at 7:42 pm

          Christie is actually an illustration of LCL’s point. He resigned as U.S. Attorney while Bush was still president in order to run for Governor. So even if Obama had offered him the opportunity to stay on that wouldn’t have stopped him from running. Even being a new cross-party appointee isn’t a barrier to entry–see Jon Huntsman in 2012 (although his acceptance of the Beijing post from Obama certainly hurt him more than it helped).

          • Left Coast Libertarian March 14, 2017 at 8:02 pm

            Half of the US attorneys resigned before Trump fired the other half. I don’t think not being fired by Trump will hinder any of them if they choose to run for office. Democrats have to recruit from somewhere. Democrats are so weak in the state houses that in some contested congressional districts they don’t have any one in the assembly and senate. I know they don’t have a bench in the districts where they think California Republicans are vulnerable.

        • segmentation_fault March 14, 2017 at 8:10 pm

          You’re saying that with the benefit of hindsight. Democrats in their arrogance never thought a conservative Republican would be elected in NJ.


          En Marche! Make our planet great again!

  • CTIronman March 14, 2017 at 6:26 pm

    It’s not even wrong

  • MosheM March 14, 2017 at 7:43 pm

    https://twitter.com/maddow/status/841795163664089089

    Did Trump leak it to distract from the AHCA cluster?


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • CTIronman March 14, 2017 at 8:13 pm

    And/or Hillary’s clueless campaign didn’t make them care

  • segmentation_fault March 14, 2017 at 8:13 pm

    First Republican member of Congress to oppose AHCA from the left? http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/republican-rep.-ileana-ros-lehtinen-wont-vote-for-health-bill/article/2617368


    En Marche! Make our planet great again!

    • GOPTarHeel March 14, 2017 at 8:37 pm

      I think Cotton and Cassidy qualify as well.


      R/NC-4.

      • krazen1211 March 14, 2017 at 9:31 pm

        It’s not entirely clear to me what Cotton’s objections are. Seems like a bit of grandstanding.

        I like Cotton and he wants to be President but that isn’t happening for a while.

        • roguemapper March 14, 2017 at 9:38 pm

          Cotton’s objections probably involve the fact that 300,000 Arkansans have health insurance due to Obamacare.


          Dem NC-11

          • krazen1211 March 14, 2017 at 9:54 pm

            Well, setting aside that he voted to repeal Obamacare before….

            If that’s the case, just say that. At least Rand Paul has an alternative scheme. Cotton is making process arguments, which are inherently nonsense.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 14, 2017 at 10:04 pm

      She represents the bluest CD of any Republican in Congress, so uh, yeah. Makes sense. And more or less in line with my views on AHCA too.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • segmentation_fault March 14, 2017 at 10:27 pm

        I also read that S. Fla. has one of the highest rates of Obamacare enrollment in the country.


        En Marche! Make our planet great again!

  • Left Coast Libertarian March 14, 2017 at 8:22 pm

    LA County Absentees, March 7 Election
    *Median age*
    Received Ballot = 46
    Returned Ballot = 61

    *Return Rate*
    Millennials = 8%
    Seniors = 40%

    In California, the percentage of ballots that are VBM is a lot higher in specials. So this is likely a high share of ballots cast. Maybe this is nothing because the election was never in doubt. Maybe it means that Democrats might not be able to expect that much in special elections.

  • StatenIslandTest March 14, 2017 at 8:40 pm

    As a supporter I think he needs more clarity and less Twitter to get these up..
    http://www.ibtimes.com/obama-vs-trump-approval-ratings-how-do-donald-barack-compare-2505769


    31, Jersey City

  • kewgardens March 14, 2017 at 9:36 pm

    Let the conspiracy theories begin!!
    https://twitter.com/ChrisJansing/status/841823510628597761

  • kewgardens March 14, 2017 at 10:16 pm

    Brian Fallon — American idiot

    https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/841832982361055233/photo/1

  • MosheM March 14, 2017 at 10:20 pm

    https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/841826819041071104


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • jncca March 14, 2017 at 10:27 pm

    Mods: Can we encourage people not to clog the thread with links to tweets?


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 14, 2017 at 10:31 pm

      I like the tweets, but I’m a big personal fan of copy/pasting the tweet in question next to the link.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Son_of_the_South March 14, 2017 at 10:31 pm

      I don’t see the problem with them as long as they’re electorally relevant. Would it be any less clutter if they just wrote out a description?


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Jon March 14, 2017 at 10:54 pm

        It would certainly help make it easier to determine if the tweet is worth looking at if a summary was included since the URL itself doesn’t include that but instead has some long string of numbers.
        I do see “cnnbrk” as part of the URL; probably a twitter handle, but I’m not familar with that handle.


        45, M, MO-02

        • Son_of_the_South March 14, 2017 at 11:08 pm

          It’s CNN’s Breaking News handle.


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • jncca March 14, 2017 at 11:27 pm

        I’d appreciate something more than a link.

        Either analysis or the body of the tweet.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • StatenIslandTest March 14, 2017 at 11:35 pm

          Agreed.


          31, Jersey City

  • TheWizardOf144 March 15, 2017 at 12:33 am

    Um, you guys will clog up a thread with 37 posts on the redistricting of the Virginia state legislature. I think you can indulge Moshem his twitter posts.

    • Son_of_the_South March 15, 2017 at 12:47 am

      Discussions of things like the redistricting of the Virginia legislature are the rocks upon which this site is built.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • TheWizardOf144 March 15, 2017 at 12:52 am

        Fine. You can still indulge Moshem his twitter links.

        I skip over the redistricting conversations. I’m sure I’m not the only one.

        I click nearly every one of Moshem’s links.

        • Son_of_the_South March 15, 2017 at 3:13 am

          Well, seeing as I said above that I had no problem with his electorally-related links, I don’t see what your beef is. As for the redistricting conversations, pick what you want to pay attention to out of what is available. If you like to read Moshe’s stuff and ignore certain other things, do so. No one is stopping you, and neither should you seek to block others from enjoying their redistricting conversations (not that you are, just making a comparison).


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • MosheM March 15, 2017 at 7:35 am

    I apologize guys.

    RM, is it possible for tweets to be embedded even posting a link in a comment like most blogs these days, or would that be too heavy for leading?

    Thanks


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • shamlet March 15, 2017 at 8:03 am

      I am personally against adding that feature as it runs the risk of slowing down site load times for those operating on slow internet connections.

      I think just adding a couple word description of any links you embed is a good rule to institute to solve this issue.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • roguemapper March 15, 2017 at 8:04 am

      The site theme limits the embed function to admins. I could change that if the mods want me to. But it would require pasting the Embed Tweet code in any case. If you copy/paste the Embed Tweet code now it’ll post the text of the tweet with a link to the tweet.


      Dem NC-11

    • Republican Michigander March 15, 2017 at 8:48 am

      I have no problem with twitter links, but I think there should be a short description of what it is or at least who said it. I don’t normally read twitter and only read a handful of blogs, but if there’s a link of interest I’d click on it.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • Izengabe March 15, 2017 at 11:11 am

        Cutting and pasting text of tweets is easy. See:
        CNN Breaking News‏Verified account
        @cnnbrk

        Comey promises to say by Wednesday whether FBI is investigating ties between Russia and Trump campaign, senator says http://bit.ly/2n7T33n


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

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