Political Roundup for March 15, 2017

Senate:

MA-Sen: Businessman Rick Green has decided to not seek the Republican nomination for US Senate next year. Although not a high profile candidate, Green was seen as somebody who had the ability to self-fund. Other Republicans looking at the race against Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) include state Rep. Geoff Diehl (R) and businessman John Kingston.

House:

CA-25: Katie Hill, the director of an organization that helps the homeless, is running to challenge Rep. Steve Knight (R). She says she can appeal to swing voters who may have voted for Hillary Clinton but also voted for Knight(both won the district by about 6 points), pointing out that her family is half Republican. Bryan Caforio (D), whom Knight defeated in 2016 is also considering running again.

CA-48: Democratic businessman Harley Rouda, who decided a couple of weeks ago to run against Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R), has already raised over $100,000 in donations since getting into the race. Some Democratic challengers in normally red districts(CA-48 did go for Clinton by about 2 points last year after going for Romney by 12 points in 2012) seem to be able to raise money well-whether that translates into votes is still an open question.

NH-1: State Sen. Andy Sanborn (R) is seriously considering a run for Congress next year. Sanborn met with officials from the NRCC last week in Washington. He is considered one of the top conservative leaders in the state legislature. State Rep. John Burt (R) is also considering a run.

SD-AL: Secretary of State Shantel Krebs (R) is in for South Dakota’s at-large House seat that Rep. Kristi Noem (R) is giving up to run for governor. Krebs is the second Republican in the race, joining Dusty Johnson, former chief of staff to Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R).

Governor:

IL-Gov: Billionaire businessman J.B. Pritzker has set up an exploratory committee to run for the Democratic nomination for governor next year. 3 Democrats have already announced bids to run against Gov. Bruce Rauner (R). They are businessman Chris Kennedy, Chicago Alderman Ameya Pawar and school superintendent Bob Daiber. State Sen. Daniel Biss (D) is also considering a run.

SC-Gov: State Rep. James Smith (D) is apparently ready to enter the race for governor soon. Smith is said to be the only Democrat laying the groundwork for a run. Others considered possible candidates have denied interest. South Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Jamie Harrison, who ran for DNC Chair, says he will not run for governor despite reports indicating he was considering a bid. Former state Rep. Bakari Sellers (D) says he has nothing to announce and state Rep. Mandy Powers Norrell (D) says she is leaning against running.

WI-Gov: Democratic businessman Andy Gronik says he will decide fairly soon whether to enter the race. He says it will be more than a couple of weeks before he decides, but won’t be months either. Also, Bob Harlow, a Democrat and recent Stanford University graduate who took 7% of the vote in the primary for CA-18 last year has announced is running for governor.

State & local:

AZ-SOS: State Senate Minority Leader Katie Hobbs (D) is running for Secretary of State. Hobbs may have competition in the Democratic primary-Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton (D) has a campaign committee for the office but hasn’t said yet whether he will run. Current Secretary of State Michele Reagan (R) is running for re-election.

CA-AG: San Bernardino County DA Mike Ramos (R) will not run for Attorney General next year and instead will run for re-election as DA. Ramos would have faced an uphill race against appointed AG Xavier Becerra (D), but was considered Republicans’ best and most prominent prospect.

Charlotte Mayor: City Councilman Kenny Smith is the first Republican to announce a run for Mayor of Charlotte. Despite controlling the mayor’s office continuously from 1987-2009, no Republican has been elected since 2007 when Pat McCrory won the last of his record 7 2-year terms. Mayor Jennifer Roberts (D) is running again and Vice Mayor Vi Lyles (D) and state Sen. Joel Ford (D) are running in the Democratic primary as well.

Staten Island Borough President: After serving 7 months in prison for tax fraud, former Rep. Michael Grimm (R) is considering a return to politics and considering running for Staten Island Borough President. He is said to have the backing of former Borough President(and Congressman) Guy Molinari (R). But insiders say he would have a tough time finding much more support to run against current BP Jimmy Oddo (R).

Other:

RIP: Former Rep. Kika de la Garza (D) of Texas has died at the age of 89. De la Garza represented TX-15 from 1965-97 and was chairman of the House Agriculture Committee from 1981-95. In 1978, Rep. Leo Ryan (D) of California asked de la Garza to accompany him on a fact-finding trip to Guyana to visit the mission colony of cult leader Jim Jones. De la Garza decided not to go, citing the hectic schedule of the House. Ryan was killed on the trip by a Jones supporter as his plane tried to leave a nearby airstrip.

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115 Comments

  • FiveAngels March 15, 2017 at 7:52 am

    Good thing there are not Keitels or Jodls in the GOP House delegation. Imagine if Krebs is elected and Trump gets mad at the Congress and summons them to the Oval Office: “KEITEL JODL UND KREBS!”

  • Mayor Perk March 15, 2017 at 8:44 am

    Everyone enjoy their nothing burger last night?


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA March 15, 2017 at 9:05 am

      The odds are that the Trump team leaked these returns themselves. Our moronic media falls for the Master of Distraction once again.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

      • cer March 15, 2017 at 9:34 am

        Regardless of who leaked it, the BIG loser from last night is Maddow, and the rest of the political left. Twitter is still having a field day with it.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • WingNightAlone March 15, 2017 at 9:55 am

          This could be the first possible instance of Team Trump actually playing 3d chess.


          25. Saint John-Rothesay. Financial services sales manager. Blue Tory.

          • Ryan_in_SEPA March 15, 2017 at 1:39 pm

            I think they do more often than we think.


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • bluewahoo March 15, 2017 at 10:34 am

    VA HD-28: This is the district of the recently retired Speaker of the House of Virginia, William Howell. Susan Stimpson (R), who challenged Howell in 2015, and is the former Chair of the Stafford County Board of Supervisors, is exploring a run. Her legal troubles in the past year are definitely a consideration.

    http://thebullelephant.com/susan-stimpson-takes-a-step-back-into-politics/

    VA CD-10: Another possible Democratic challenger is being talked about to run against Comstock in 2018. Kathy Smith served on the Fairfax County School Board for 13 years, and in 2015 won a very competitive race for the Board of Supervisors. Being approached by “a number of labor groups” peaks my interest.

    http://bluevirginia.us/2017/03/another-possible-democratic-challenger-rep-barbara-comstock-fairfax-county-supervisor-kathy-smith

    • rdelbov March 15, 2017 at 10:40 am

      Wexton might not be a bold enough progressive for this seat. She also won a craftily drawn seat that loads the area Ds into a comfortable seat for her. It is not like that she has been an amazing crossover vote winner. A Fairfax candidate could cause her trouble in a primary–especially if she gets the bold progressive label/Sanders support.

      • SwingStateRepublican March 15, 2017 at 10:51 am

        Wexton is pretty liberal, I don’t think she would have much trouble in a primary. Nova Dems are pretty pragmatic. Clinton crushed Bernie here. Loudoun continues to become a bigger portion of this seat every year and Weston represents a sizable chunk of Fairfax. IMO the nomination is probably hers if she wants it.


        20/R/NC-4(College)/VA-7(Home)
        Social liberal, fiscal conservative

        • rdelbov March 15, 2017 at 11:12 am

          Clinton did crush Bernie in the D primary but it was very early in the process. I might add that Clinton won VA primary based on minority voters. I am not sure that in a Wexton versus any progressive D that minority voters would break along Clinton/Sanders line.

          I do agree that Wexton is very liberal but I suspect some D primaries in 2017/2018 will break along establishment versus anti-establishment lines.

          I also agree that Wexton with a solid Loudon county base in a two person primary would be hard to beat. Not impossible but hard. Her biggest problem would be a split base against a Fairfax based candidate.

          I have noted before that one of the flaws that I saw in 2016 was that DC democrats picked favorites in primaries. In some cases they literally boxed out people. When a female candidate gets Pelosi’s support-Emily list money-NARAl folks fall in line then national environmental groups (close to Pelosi) chime in and all of sudden they either clear the field or the money dries up for their primary foes. So I suspect the Ds will settle on one person in VA10. We saw with Emily Cain, Morgan Carroll and Monica Vernon in 2016 folks in DC do not always pick the right gal.

          • segmentation_fault March 15, 2017 at 11:25 am

            Why would VA-10 go for an anti-establishment candidate? McLean is in this district — that’s where all of the establishment lives! Also you’re wrong about the VA primary, Clinton won whites and VA-10 is over 80% white anyway.


            En Marche! Make our planet great again!

            • rdelbov March 15, 2017 at 11:40 am

              If VA10 is 80% white that means the D primary could be 30% minority as D primaries tend to attract many more of them. I think that could be a significant number. I am not sure VA breaks out turnout by race but I suspect the white vote in D presidential primary was not 80%.

              I think we under estimated the support of the D establishment in 2016 during the primary season. I still think March VA was before the Bernie affect was fully felt. In late April Bernie got 33% in MD primary. Clearly he won the white vote and only the AA vote carried Clinton in MD.

              I think MD is a pretty good model for VA10 electorate. I suspect younger D voters, lot of young voters in VA10 on the D side, are restless with the establishment way of doing things. I don’t sense that D primary voters want the same old same old.

              • segmentation_fault March 15, 2017 at 3:05 pm

                It’s not clear at all that Clinton lost the white vote in the MD primary. Actually, it’s clear that she won it. By double digits according to exit polls, just as in VA. Precinct results in MontCo, the highest concentration of white Democrats in MD, support that as well.


                En Marche! Make our planet great again!

              • davybaby March 15, 2017 at 5:47 pm

                VA-10 is 70% white and 14% Asian–probably heavily Indian American.

                Source: Census Bureau interactive table:

                https://www.census.gov/mycd/

            • bluewahoo March 15, 2017 at 12:31 pm

              I have to agree. The last Democratic primary in Northern Virginia was the 8th CD in 2014. In that race we had candidates who would have made history demographically, and candidates boldly going where no 8th district congressmen have gone before, and they all lost to an old straight white guy who helped repeal the estate tax.

              That said, I don’t agree that Smith would be the anti-establishment candidate in a primary, or that a primary will happen in this race. Most likely a candidate will line up enough support from the party and liberal groups to scare off all opponents.

              • segmentation_fault March 15, 2017 at 3:03 pm

                Lol, yeah, Don Beyer representing VA-8 speaks to how establishment friendly NoVa is. Clinton hitman Terry McAuliffe (D-NoVa) is the governor of Virginia for crying out loud.


                En Marche! Make our planet great again!

                • segmentation_fault March 15, 2017 at 3:12 pm

                  NoVa Democrats are establishment friendly, just like NoVa Republicans are. They are high income, high edu, and understand the workings of the federal government too well. You didn’t see the tea party doing well there and you won’t see Bernie Sanders Democrats doing well there either.


                  En Marche! Make our planet great again!

              • rdelbov March 15, 2017 at 4:46 pm

                Blue

                I mostly agree with your comments. I don’t see Smith as being anti-establishment. Neither Wexton or Smith fit that catagory. I note that only 40% of the primary vote comes from Loudoun county in VA10 and Wexford represents about 30% or so of the whole CD. If Smith wanted to make a race of it she could win a primary.

                I frankly don’t see either one of them as electoral super stars

  • Izengabe March 15, 2017 at 11:02 am

    MA-8: The New York Times profiles everyone’s favorite moonrock enthusiast Brianna Wu. Surprised the Times didnt ask her about her quest to prevent an evil Richard Branson from blackmailing the Earth from his privately financed moonbase.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/15/magazine/brianna-wu-wants-to-change-the-democrats-playbook.html?_r=0


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Mayor Perk March 15, 2017 at 11:47 am

    NJ-Gov Quinnipiac poll

    Murphy (D) 47%
    Guadagno (R) 25%

    NJ-Gov D Primary
    Murphy 23%
    Wisniewski 6%
    Johnson 4%
    Lesniak 4%
    Brennan 2%

    NJ-Gov R Primary
    Guadagno 28%
    Piscopo 18%
    Ciattarelli 3%
    Rogers 2%
    Rullo. 1%

    https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2439


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Izengabe March 15, 2017 at 11:53 am

      LOL! Murphy is beating Guadagno 47% to 25% and 70% of poll respondents said they haven’t heard enough about him to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him!

      Trump NJ job approval is 34%, Christie is 19%!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Mayor Perk March 15, 2017 at 12:01 pm

        Bob Taft territory!


        30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

        • Izengabe March 15, 2017 at 12:14 pm

          You can’t compare Jersey to Ohio. In Jersey they hate everyone. Even Cory Booker has a 57/31 approval/disapproval


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • StatenIslandTest March 15, 2017 at 5:23 pm

            Interestingly only 56 pct of voters give Christie a D or F (still bad). 25 pct give him a C. That may be Guadagno’s only hope of getting back in the race.

            I still think its a hard road for her. I know my guy is only at 3 pct in the primary but I think a fresh Republican would be much more competitive in the general. Piscopo has to decide if hes in and which way he wants to go about it.


            31, Jersey City

            • Izengabe March 15, 2017 at 6:25 pm

              Guadagno has two paths to victory. 1 would involve Christie taking a job in the Trump administration and running for Governor as Governor. The other involves Murphy who is an unknown quantity to most voters doing something incredibly stupid to define himself in a negative way.

              With that said an outsider and celebrity like Piscopo would be the GOP’s best shot at keeping the Governor’s mansion. If he runs you can throw out Christie as an albatross on the GOP as Piscopo could run against everyone in Trenton.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • segmentation_fault March 15, 2017 at 7:24 pm

              A C is not exactly good! 81% give a grade that I wouldn’t want.


              En Marche! Make our planet great again!

    • MosheM March 15, 2017 at 12:45 pm

      No surprise


      28, M, R, NY-10

  • Mayor Perk March 15, 2017 at 11:51 am

    P-2020: O’Malley is out with an Iowa 2020 poll from PPP showing him at 18% with Corey Booker closed behind at 17% out a field of 9.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/omalley-iowa-2020-236063


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Izengabe March 15, 2017 at 12:11 pm

      In fairness if the Dems nominated O’Malley in 2016 he might have won!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • kewgardens March 15, 2017 at 3:15 pm

        In all fairness, if the Dems nominated virtually anyone not named Hillary Clinton in 2016, they might have won!!!

    • davybaby March 15, 2017 at 5:45 pm

      Martin, it’s time to just go away. Get yourself a partnership with a corner office in a Baltimore law firm and cash in.

  • w920us March 15, 2017 at 12:34 pm

    Cloture vote on Coats for DNI passsed 88-11, with ten Democrats joined by Rand Paul voting against cloture.

    Senate sends Coats nomination to confirmation vote
    http://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/indiana/Senate-sends-Coats-nomination-to-confirmation-vote-18272498

    Cloture Vote of Dan Coats for Director of National Intelligence
    https://decisiondeskhq.com/vote-tracker/cloture-vote-of-dan-coats-for-director-of-national-intelligence/

    Is this the first time a Republican has voted against cloture on one of Trump’s nominees?

    CSPAN is reporting that confirmation vote will occur at 1:45 today. Along with the vote on McMaster’s rank as NSA.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • rdelbov March 15, 2017 at 12:36 pm

    Just a few notes on the death of Kika De La Garza. His tenure in the house was often contrasted with his colleague Henry Gonzalez. La Garza was much more of a go along and get along type congressman. Not quite as liberal as Gonzalez and maybe quietly more influential. La Garza mastered the art of getting Ag bills passed while moderate and conservative Democrats on the banking committee stymied Gonzalez’s more liberal agenda.

    The two congressman who held this seat before La Garza say alot about how times had changed. Lloyd Bentsen had this seat for several terms and he more or less walked into this seat because his Father was a local land baron. The next congressman was your standard Texas conservative named Joe Kilgore. When he retired the powers that be in the area selected Garza. The powerful bosses figured it was time for an hispanic to hold this heavily Hispanic seat.

    • davybaby March 15, 2017 at 5:51 pm

      I feel compelled to post this whenever Bentsen is mentioned.

      https://youtu.be/NRCWbFFRpnY

      • rdelbov March 15, 2017 at 5:58 pm

        still an ouch–Bentsen just choose the wrong party. He beat Bush 41 in a 1970 senate race (Bush was one of nearly a dozen house members recruited by the Nixon white house to run for senate seats that year) and IMO could have transitioned to the GOP in the Reagan years. He would have been more at ease IMO then as a D. Can you imagine Bentsen and Bernie in the same D party now?

  • Left Coast Libertarian March 15, 2017 at 1:02 pm

    Democrats have never been able to run candidates who can raise money in Republican Southern California districts. Doug Applegate raised almost nothing before the June primary. He finished close to Issa there and was able to raise $2 million. I’m guessing that little of that was due to his fundraising ability. it was a mix of PAC money, Democratic leadership raising money, and Internet donations. The SJWs are energized with Trump in WH and see opportunity in Southern California. They’ll push for Internet donations and I think the candidates will see a lot of money pour in.

    • indocon March 15, 2017 at 1:10 pm

      Not liking our chances in So Cal districts going forward except Hunters, the drip drip loosening of control that I saw in Lungren’s and Pombo’s district up north is now showing up in So Cal, would suck to loose them and our beachhead on southern pacific. Lot of my liberal and rich silicon valley friends look at OH and IA like they are new South Africa, and I gotta imagine won’t be opening their check books to win over there as enthusiastically as they would for CA seats right in their backyard. Will leave JBH’s district as only one we might have on Pacific.

      • The Emperor March 15, 2017 at 1:23 pm

        Not necessarily. I think Orange County has enough GOP enclaves to elect a Republicans to congress. Also, when DeFazio retires the GOP will have a good shot at carrying Oregon-4.


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

        • cincojotas March 15, 2017 at 1:40 pm

          not sure if it happens in 2022 (it might not happen for awhile) but if Oregon gets a sixth district – DeFazio, or whoever is holding that seat, will be a lot safer.

          You’ll have a district taking in the Rogue and Umpqua valleys and another being a Eugene/Newport/Corvallis based district (which DeFazio would probably run in)

          • roguemapper March 15, 2017 at 10:00 pm

            Are you suggesting that Ds would concede the new seat to the GOP? If so, that would be stupid. It’s quite easy to draw a solid 5-1 Oregon map. Divide Portland three ways, draw Salem to Beaverton, and draw Ashland-Eugene-Corvallis-Bend. The rest goes in OR-02.


            Dem NC-11

            • Son_of_the_South March 15, 2017 at 10:07 pm

              I doubt that Blumenauer would allow such a dismantling of his district.


              23, R, DC-AL
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • roguemapper March 15, 2017 at 10:25 pm

                Blumenauer is 68. Assuming that he plans to run in 2022 his seat would go from D+22 to about D+14 under the framework that I described. And where else can the new seat go anyhow? In absolute terms most of Oregon’s population growth is in Portland Metro. That’s pretty much where the new seat would need to be regardless. OR-01, OR-03, and OR-05 need to make room for it in any case.


                Dem NC-11

                • rdelbov March 15, 2017 at 10:32 pm

                  Yup this is what Holder and Obama mean by Redistricting reform. Slice and dice up states like MD and IL is but do it favorably for the Ds.

                  We need our friend Torie to do a post on how Democrats need to stop gerrymandering for their own good.

                  • roguemapper March 15, 2017 at 10:41 pm

                    Well I don’t speak for Holder and Obama but if I did then I’d surely tell them that both the MD and IL gerrymanders are obviously far too weak. MD should be 8-0 and IL should be 14-4.


                    Dem NC-11

                    • Left Coast Libertarian March 15, 2017 at 11:48 pm

                      Your sarcasm isn’t going to have the same impact here as it will in other places.

                • Son_of_the_South March 15, 2017 at 11:01 pm

                  Lol. I’m not talking about how safe he is. I’m talking about his wanting to represent most of the city and leave the district to a chosen successor. Plans like the one that you’re proposing are relatively rare because people who don’t prioritize partisan considerations often object. Look what happened in Tennessee in 2011. I want Rs in KY to crack the 3rd, but who knows if they’ll have the political will to do so?


                  23, R, DC-AL
                  Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                  • roguemapper March 15, 2017 at 11:08 pm

                    Well, if you don’t split Portland 3 ways that doesn’t prevent a 5-1 map in any case. It just means that you can’t do much to strengthen OR-05 and the new OR-06 would be roughly equivalent. The bottom line is that there’s no reason for Ds to draw anything worse than 5 seats that are Lean D or better, much less to concede a new district to the GOP.


                    Dem NC-11

        • Ryan_in_SEPA March 15, 2017 at 1:41 pm

          We also have AK-AL.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

        • indocon March 15, 2017 at 1:51 pm

          We may have enough but they could get drowned out in 55-45 districts. Only reason So Cal districts are slowly loosening vs the 2 Nor Cal districts I mentioned is growth, Elk Grove and San Joaquin county grew like crazy in last housing bubble, most of the new resident were asian/hispanic, ready to vote out the incumbent R’s. So Cal areas are already built out, so demographic transition happens slowly as older white resident move out and new asian/hispanic resident move in.

  • rdelbov March 15, 2017 at 2:59 pm

    Fed raised rates today but sees(my view of events) only modest growth over the next three years (2017-2019)

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-raises-interest-rates-by-a-quarter-point-sees-two-move-moves-this-year-2017-03-15

    Not sure the Fed is seeing a 4% growth pattern for the GDP. On the flip side no recession or economic slowdown is also in the Fed cards.

    This pleases the markets and IMO will help GOP candidates in 2017/2018.

  • GerGOP March 15, 2017 at 3:18 pm

    Boards loading incredibly slow for anybody else?

    • roguemapper March 15, 2017 at 3:27 pm

      As far as I can tell the host server is lagging. There’s not much to do about it but wait till it resets.


      Dem NC-11

      • Upstater22 March 15, 2017 at 3:48 pm

        Is the server buried in the snow with me in upstate NY? I had 36.5 inches at 9:00 this morning and we have had lingering light snow most of the day.


        Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

        • MosheM March 15, 2017 at 4:17 pm

          Lucky guy!


          28, M, R, NY-10

      • Upstater22 March 15, 2017 at 4:36 pm

        Seems like its back up and running in the past couple minutes


        Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • Upstater22 March 15, 2017 at 3:41 pm

      Yes! I was just going to post this myself


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • CTIronman March 15, 2017 at 4:03 pm

        Dontcha know that storm was a bust cause NYC & lower Westchester got less snow than predicted. Get with The Narrative

        • Upstater22 March 15, 2017 at 4:30 pm

          Oh I am well aware that since NYC, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington didn’t get the predicted snow that this storm never happened.

          But some stats from my neck of the woods:

          My measured snowfall: 36.75″
          Official BGM snowfall: 31.3″ as of 8 hours ago
          Last seasons record low snowfall at BGM: 32.0″
          Previous 24-hour snowfall record: 23″ in 1961
          BGM record snowfall for a season: 131.3″
          Current season BGM snowfall: 127.7″


          Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

  • MosheM March 15, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    More
    🇳🇱 #Netherlands | @IpsosNL/@NOS EXIT POLL – seats

    VVD 31
    PVV 19
    CDA 19
    D66 19
    GL 16
    SP 14
    PvdA 9


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • dforston March 15, 2017 at 4:26 pm

      Another exit poll is supposed to come out in the next 10 minutes… let’s see if anything changes

    • dforston March 15, 2017 at 4:28 pm

      I’m reading they are expecting 13m total to vote. But the population is 17m? Are there very few children there?

    • indocon March 16, 2017 at 12:03 am

      I’ve been on record here saying that continental Europe, minus maybe France, is screwed, their national politics is like Trump, Clinton, Jeb, and Sanders running, in that scenario a populist like Trump will never win. The Axis-Allied split is being recreated.

  • shamlet March 15, 2017 at 4:26 pm

    NJ-SD-2: Dems swap ticket with State Rep. Vince Mazzeo (D) running for re-election and ex-county commissioner Colin Bell (D) falling upward to the Senate race. State Rep. Chris Brown (R) (not to be confused with State Rep. Chris Brown (R) of district 8) looks like the favorite now to pick up this seat. http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/nj/NJ-Dems-pick-new-candidate-in-close-Senate-race-.html


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • StatenIslandTest March 15, 2017 at 5:27 pm

      And another ceiling is hit. I don’t see a Dem supermajority in the legislature. It looks like this district and 16 (Somerset/Princeton) are two huge recruiting failures with barely B-listers where A-listers were possible. Likely that Diane Allen’s Burlco seat goes but not 100%.

      14 (Hamilton) and 38 (Central Bergen) also have much stronger GOP challengers than anticipated.

      I actually wouldn’t be shocked at GOP legislative gains even with a strong Murphy win.


      31, Jersey City

  • Mayor Perk March 15, 2017 at 6:11 pm

    McCain: Rand Paul ‘working for Vladimir Putin’

    http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/324182-mccain-rand-paul-working-for-vladimir-putin


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • The Emperor March 15, 2017 at 6:38 pm

      Rand voted against Coats for DNI, in full disclosure of the context


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • Mayor Perk March 15, 2017 at 6:54 pm

        The context is more with Rand objecting to Montenegro joining NATO. Rand’s argument there is not very sound. Montenegro is going to stretch us too thin?


        30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 15, 2017 at 7:03 pm

          If Liz Warren calling Sessions a racist for BS reasons violates Senate rules, John McCain shouldn’t get to accuse people of treason (which is BTW, a much worse claim) because they made a foreign policy argument that he thinks isn’t very sound.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • jncca March 15, 2017 at 7:28 pm

          Would you fight a war to defend Montenegro? Most Americans would answer no, and that’s why it shouldn’t be in NATO.

          [I say this as someone who’s visited it and found it an incredibly underrated place to visit!]


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • californianintexas March 15, 2017 at 7:55 pm

            A little while ago Travel With Rick Steves featured fellow ex-Yugoslavian republic Slovenia, which is also a very nice place to visit.


            34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

            • jncca March 15, 2017 at 9:09 pm

              I’m confused how this relates to NATO?


              24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

              • californianintexas March 15, 2017 at 10:35 pm

                It doesn’t. I was just going off on a tangent.


                34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

          • FiveAngels March 15, 2017 at 9:13 pm

            Montenegro shouldn’t even be a state, much less a member of NATO. The independence vote was pretty suspicious, with Djukanovic declaring that the 55% supermajority threshold was cleared by a handful of votes — State Department and CIA magic at work, I’d imagine. Another good example of how Bush tried to be friends with Russia but it was Vlad who was being a big meanie!

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 15, 2017 at 7:18 pm

    Another district court puts a nationwide injunction on the new travel ban, even though the relevant standard of review greatly favored the government (since it is after all, a nationwide injunction).

    The effective rationale being of course, that the US government has no power to ever regulate international travel from predominantly Muslim (and probably only Muslim) nations.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Left Coast Libertarian March 15, 2017 at 7:31 pm

      I don’t understand this. The executive branch issues visas and admits refugees. The ruling doesn’t force them to give anyone a visa who applies or admit any refugee who wants to come to this country. It doesn’t force the executive branch to use specific criteria and it doesn’t take that power away from the executive branch. So what it do? With or without the ban the Trump administration can deny visas to anyone from the six countries and they can deny any refugee entry.

      Help me out here.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 15, 2017 at 7:51 pm

        The district court adhered to a fairly novel constitutional theory that applies the 14th amendment to non-resident foreigners (a theory which will be thoroughly shot down probably 6-2 in a case currently at the Supreme Court about a border shooting in Mexico). Then the logic is simply that it’s bad for Muslims because the countries are Muslim and thus the travel restrictions are unconstitutional, which flies in left-of-center America because as demonstrated in Rotherham, defending anything any Muslim does anywhere is more important to the left than any other consideration.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • The Emperor March 15, 2017 at 8:22 pm

          It’s all BS. They’re relying on statements Trump made in the campaign to strike down the specific policy as violating the Establishment Clause, even though there is no precedent to apply the Establishment Clause to immigration laws. The Judge was appointed by Obama, so that says everything. Definitely so-called Judges. Don’t care about the constitution at all


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

          • Left Coast Libertarian March 15, 2017 at 9:30 pm

            I don’t question the judge’s ruling as weird. He basically said that by taking actions the President is harming Hawaii colleges and tourism. Using the theory that a President isn’t allowed to do anything that might cause someone economic harm would mean he can’t do anything at all. Every action causes someone economic harm.

            But that’s not the weird part. I don’t see there being a remedy. He didn’t order the government to do anything. They can still not give out visas or admit refugees.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 15, 2017 at 8:22 pm

        And in case I’m sounding snide, it really is that absurd. Providing 1st amendment protections to non-resident foreigners and to furthermore undergird that protection with what is essentially a disparate impact analysis (which is what in the opinion provides the likelihood of success that a temporary restraining order requires) would also say that bombing ISIS, prosecuting the war in Afghanistan, and military support of Israel are all unconstitutional and need to be immediately ended by a federal judge. Which his equally inane standing analysis suggests that states would also have standing to bring to court, but I doubt anyone here is weird enough to care as much about standing issues as I do (intellectually, I disdain probably all of constitutional law except standing)


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • CTIronman March 15, 2017 at 8:28 pm

    Under the Hawaiian judge’s theory were a President to insult terrorists in Ireland he would then be barred from limiting entry to the country of members of the Provisional IRA.

    • The Emperor March 15, 2017 at 8:38 pm

      It’s baffling. This is why the Senate needs to force Gorsuch through


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • Ryan_in_SEPA March 15, 2017 at 9:31 pm

        That does not go far enough. We cannot strip these judges of pay or office, but we can make serving in the office to be utterly miserable. In a state like California, I would find the smallest town in each district and make the court sit there at the local post office for example. Also, I would strip all funding for clerks. Make the judges write their own opinions.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

        • CTIronman March 15, 2017 at 9:34 pm

          Rumor has it jurists out of favor in CT get sent out of their home district to handle court; especially Stamford & Windham

        • The Emperor March 15, 2017 at 10:17 pm

          Slash their salaries to absolutely nothing


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

          • AD123 March 15, 2017 at 10:49 pm

            Unconstitutional

            • The Emperor March 15, 2017 at 11:23 pm

              Does the constitution specify the pay of a federal judge? I doubt it, cause it didn’t mandate any court but SCOTUS


              male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
              Rubio Republican

              • roguemapper March 15, 2017 at 11:25 pm

                “The judicial Power of the United States, shall be vested in one supreme Court, and in such inferior Courts as the Congress may from time to time ordain and establish. The Judges, both of the supreme and inferior Courts, shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour, and shall, at stated Times, receive for their Services, a Compensation, which shall not be diminished during their Continuance in Office.”


                Dem NC-11

                • indocon March 16, 2017 at 12:02 am

                  Next terrorist attack, which unfortunately there will be one, will be juxtaposed with all the footage of Democrats and judges tripping over themselves over past month arguing against these bans, the ads will write for themselves.

                  • jncca March 16, 2017 at 1:03 am

                    Only if they come from these countries. Trump didn’t even exclude the place most terrorists come from! (Saudi Arabia)


                    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

                    • indocon March 16, 2017 at 2:17 am

                      Do you think the marginal voter knows or cares for that distinction?

                    • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 16, 2017 at 3:01 am

                      Yeah, the marginal voter doesn’t recognize most of those countries. I’ve met upper-class middle-aged voters with PHDs who weren’t aware that Iraq and Libya were separate countries (with Benghazi in the latter), or that Pakistan was majority-Muslim and next to Afghanistan, or that Ukraine was also part of the USSR (alongside Russia) or that most Latin Americans are Catholic.

                      Foreign policy really has very little pull to normal people outside of starting wars and things that directly impact voters at home, such as national security or trade.


                      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                    • roguemapper March 16, 2017 at 3:16 am

                      Upper-class middle-aged voters with PhDs who don’t know that most Latin Americans are Catholic are not normal. They are deeply ignorant imbeciles or suffer from early-onset dementia.


                      Dem NC-11

                    • Greyhound March 16, 2017 at 4:40 am

                      @RM . . . You’d be surprised. I once had to explain to my PhD boss that Birmingham is also a city in the UK for example. There are a bunch of mostly irrelevant facts that 99.9% of the population has learned just by living, but because there are just so many of them, odds are that most people have at least 1 that they just don’t know or are wrong about.


                      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

                    • roguemapper March 16, 2017 at 6:05 am

                      Well, I’m not surprised by that at all. I’m just pointing out the difference between “normal” and “select group of ignorant people with PhDs that I’ve met.”


                      Dem NC-11

                    • Ryan_in_SEPA March 16, 2017 at 8:03 am

                      Roguemapper… I almost fell out of my seat laughing regarding your Lat Am comment. If such people exist, we need to take them to the hospital to make sure they are not brain dead.


                      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

                    • shamlet March 16, 2017 at 8:35 am

                      @Greyhound. Yeah, I can definitely appreciate that. I’m about as good with trivia-type stuff as anyone and (for example) I didn’t know pigeons and doves were the same thing until a couple weeks ago. Or for the longest time I always got John Paul Jones mixed up with Jacques Cousteau and (General) Santa Ana with (Carlos) Santana. There’s so much knowledge out there some obvious morsels of it will fall through literally anyone’s cracks.


                      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

                    • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 16, 2017 at 1:40 pm

                      There’s really no reason why a PHD in a non-humanities field would have a better grasp of these things than an average person. And hell, even worse than PHDs are JDs. We think that judges are any better? I remember law school classmates who had strong opinions about judicial activism but who had never heard of Dred Scott or Buck v. Bell (or what eugenics even was). Or who complained about the “New Jim Crow” (which is of course all reasonable policing in the USA) while not really knowing how the actual Jim Crow started and ended.

                      This kind of person largely believes that they are entitled to run our country because of the inherent brilliance of lawyers or some crap. As we can see the recent rulings.


                      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                • The Emperor March 16, 2017 at 12:54 am

                  Hmmm, you learn something new every day.
                  I agree with @Indocon. The activist judges are giving Trump a goldmine to use in both 2018 and 2020. Can’t get Gorsuch and the judicial vacancies filled soon enough, and the Senate should skunk the curtesy rule


                  male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
                  Rubio Republican

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 16, 2017 at 1:12 am

                  Don’t worry, the text of our living constitution can evolve in line with social needs. 🙂


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • jncca March 15, 2017 at 11:28 pm

            So that only people with outside incomes (trust fund babies) can be judges?


            24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

            • Son_of_the_South March 15, 2017 at 11:31 pm

              That would be a terrible idea. All the judges would be Brooklyn hipsters!


              23, R, DC-AL
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 16, 2017 at 1:16 am

              To be quite fair, the vast majority of people appointed to federal judgeships have extremely networths from the legal career that got them appointed in the first place.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • Ryan_in_SEPA March 16, 2017 at 8:12 am

                That is why I am for making them sit at unusual locations. Make the Central District of California sit at Twentynine Palms. Make the entire Eastern District of Pennsylvania sit in Reading or Lancaster.


                31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

                • w920us March 16, 2017 at 11:11 am

                  How about downtown Chester?


                  R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
                  #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

                  • Ryan_in_SEPA March 16, 2017 at 11:45 am

                    Too close to Philly.


                    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

                    • w920us March 16, 2017 at 11:49 am

                      Oh you were going for commuting aggravation.


                      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
                      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • rdelbov March 15, 2017 at 9:48 pm

    Speaking of judges–Judicial conference recommends 57 new judges! 5 for 9th circuit

    http://www.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/2017_judicial_conference_judgeship_recommendations_0.pdf

    I suspect this will get down this year–either in a seperate bill or in an omnibus spending bill

    • The Emperor March 15, 2017 at 10:17 pm

      So 57 new Trump appointees with the Reid Rule. I can hear Democrats screaming


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

  • Conservative First March 15, 2017 at 9:49 pm

    Duggan 46%, Young 21% In Detroit Mayor’s Race
    “Detroit Mayor Mike DUGGAN has a 46-to 21-percent lead over Sen. Coleman YOUNG II (D-Detroit) in a presumed showdown between the two in the 2017 Detroit mayoral race, according to a Denno Research poll commissioned by MIRS.”
    https://mirsnews.com/welcome.php

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