Political Roundup for March 16th, 2017

The Dutch General Election is over, and Wilders & Co. came in second with 20 seats, just ahead of the christian-democratic CDA at 19 seats. The Center-right VVD, led by Prime Minister Rutte is again the largest party with 33 seats (actually a loss of eight) and will form the next coalition. Many European leaders can’t contain their excitement, though they’ll likely be much less excited when they realize that Rutte won by basically being Wilders-lite. Anyway, on to the rest of the news!

President

IA-2020: Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D-Human Sleep Aid) is floating a poll showing him one point ahead of Sen. Cory Booker (D-Ambition), 18-17, in the 2020 IA caucus. I have no clue why he’d do such a thing this early, but someone should probably tell him the that early frontrunner only gets the nomination if they came in second last time, have complete control of the party, or are the sitting Vice President.

Congress

MA-08: The Times did an interview with MA-08 hopeful Brianna Wu (D-Bold Progressive), and she sounds scarily sane (at least in terms of strategy). Now, I don’t think for a minute that she’s going to beat Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Dublin) in the primary, but telling her party to sound less elitist and mimic the emotionality of Trump’s appeals is a decent bit of advice. She definitely sounds more well-informed than the interviewer, who apparently has no concept of what GamerGate was.

NC-03: This is from a few weeks ago, but it’s interesting. Rep. Walter Jones (R-The Nearest Conspiracy Theory) is publicly considering retirement at the end of this cycle. There would be a lot of people who would both love and hate to see him go, depending on how much they prattle-on about the military-industrial complex. He would have no shortage of contenders for succession to his safely Republican seat in Eastern North Carolina.

VA-10: It appears that Fairfax County Supervisor Kathy Smith (D-Rapidly Diversifying Suburbs) has been approached by several groups, including multiple unions, to run against Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Was Probably Rooting For Hillary). If she runs, it could set up a primary with State Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D-Already Diverse Suburbs), who is also mulling a run.

Governor

NJ-Gov: Well, this is expected but depressing; Goldman alum and gubernatorial hopeful Phil Murphy (D-Second Coming Of Corzine) trounces his rival Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R-Shackled To Christie) 47-25 in a new Q poll. Both candidates lead in their respective party primaries.

TN-Gov: Life is pretty good if you’re Tennessee State Sen. Mark Green (R-Badass). You’re a former SpecOps medic, a prominent state senator, the best gubernatorial candidate that the state party’s antiestablishment wing has had in ages, and you might even get to be Secretary of the Army. After Vincent Viola withdrew his name from consideration, Team Trump started vetting Green. If he gets the job, he’ll exit a primary that he had a decent chance of winning due to multiple establishment candidates’ splitting the vote at the moment.

State/Local

AL-Referendum: Legislators in the Yellowhammer State want to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot that completely bans abortion in case Roe v. Wade ever gets overturned. Yay, I guess?

Detroit-Mayor: A new poll commissioned by MIRS shows incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan (D-McNamara) leading his challenger State Sen. Coleman Young II (D-Please, Not Again) 46-21.

NJ-SD-02: The Democrats have pulled a switcheroo in this competitive race for an open Atlantic City-area state senate seat. Both of the district’s state assemblymen, one of each party, were running against each other. Now, Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo (D-Torricelli) is being replaced with former Atlantic County Freeholder Collin Bell (D-Lautenberg) after Mazzeo said some unfortunate things about immigrants in a Facebook post.

PA-Judges: In Pennsylvania, candidates can get multiple ballot lines by petition. Sometimes, both parties will endorse the same candidate, especially for judicial positions (making it easier to petition onto their ballot line). That did not happen to Allegheny Magisterial Court Judge Mary Murray (who is running for Superior Court), but she wanted the Republican ballot line anyway, so she petitioned onto it. The PAGOP is now challenging her signatures.

VA-LD-28: Former Stafford County Board of Supervisors Chairwoman Susan Stimpson (R-Better Off Her Meds) is returning to politics. Stimpson, who has a, let’s say, colorful history involving a Wegman’s, JFK Airport, and diet pills is returning to politics. She’s running for retiring Speaker Bill Howell’s seat. This should be interesting.

International

Scotland: Scotland seems to be barrelling towards another independence referendum, and everyone wants control over the terms; the SNP wants control over it that it doesn’t have, the Tories want it to be after the Brexit negotiations, and Labour, as per usual, knows it wants something, but isn’t quite sure what that is.

Previous Post Next Post

94 Comments

  • GOPTarHeel March 16, 2017 at 7:32 am

    Wilders actually came in second, with 20 seats to the CDA’s 19. https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/842283289536811009/photo/1
    Also I don’t see a basis for calling the CDA leftist. If anything it’s a somewhat more socially conservative version of its sister Christian Democratic party across the border in Germany, and is affiliated with the center-right European People’s Party.


    R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

    • Greyhound March 16, 2017 at 7:44 am

      Yeah, aren’t they the “mainstream” party closest to the PVV? Pretty much every conceivable way that Wilders could become PM involved some kind of PVV/CDA coalition.


      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • Son_of_the_South March 16, 2017 at 11:21 am

      CDA is the Labor Party. That’s leftist in my book. Also. I wrote this at 3 AM when the CDA and PVV were still tied.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • shamlet March 16, 2017 at 11:28 am

        PVDA is the labor party, CDA are the Christian Democrats.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Son_of_the_South March 16, 2017 at 11:33 am

          Ah. Maybe I should stop writing the intros at 3 AM 🙂


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • w920us March 16, 2017 at 11:47 am

      Dutch prime minister warns migrants to ‘be normal or be gone’, as he fends off populist Geert Wilders in bitter election fight
      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/23/dutch-prime-minister-warns-migrants-normal-gone-fends-populist/
      Article is from January 23rd.

      Could any American politician on the right have gotten away with saying something like this beyond Trump?


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • Ryan_in_SEPA March 16, 2017 at 8:00 am

    So right now we are looking at a VVD+CDA+D66+50Plus or VVD+CDA+Reformed Parties minority supported by PVV?


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • GOPTarHeel March 16, 2017 at 8:43 am

      The media is mostly talking up VVD+CDA+D66+CU (the non-theocratic Reformed party). Which is a coalition substantially to the right of the current one. The VVD can’t rely on outside PVV support after relentlessly bashing them all campaign.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

  • GOPTarHeel March 16, 2017 at 8:45 am

    Continuing our Europolitics kick today, UKIP is absolutely collapsing as Theresa May prepares to trigger A50 and the populist party devolves into yet another set of internecine squabbles.

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (+1)
    LDEM: 13% (-)
    UKIP: 6% (-3)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via Ipsos Mori / 10 – 14 Mar)


    R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

    • GOPTarHeel March 16, 2017 at 8:46 am

      Ispos is normally down on UKIP, but yougov found the same thing this week:

      Westminster voting intention:

      CON: 44% (-)
      LAB: 27% (+2)
      LDEM: 10% (-)
      UKIP: 9% (-2)

      (via YouGov)
      24 replies 155 retweets 148 likes


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA March 16, 2017 at 9:20 am

        Basically the Blue faction of UKIP is going home. I wonder if someday the future Lord Farage sits as a Conservative.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

        • CTIronman March 16, 2017 at 10:11 am

          Without UKIP peeling off Tory votes in marginals hard to see a Corbyn led Labour winning a GE

  • pstchrisp March 16, 2017 at 9:36 am

    That NJ-SD-02 story is great. Mazzeo can’t run for Senate because of “Family Reasons”, but can run for the State Assembly. That has to be the strangest family meeting in history. “Oh no, not the Upper House! I want you campaigning EVERY TWO YEARS!” And he only re-posted a anti-immigrant posting because he didn’t have his glasses on!? The ads are going to write themselves. Hopefully some mailers with Mazzeo’s glasses on and glasses off looking at legislation.
    But seriously, that’s a some rare good news for the NJGOP, as now they have an edge in all three seats in a district where the margins are razor-thin. Dems would have been better off ditching Mazzeo completely.

    • shamlet March 16, 2017 at 10:06 am

      Yep, this is about as ungraceful a way to handle a candidate implosion as it gets. This is actually a place where having no chance at holding Gov can help given that low turnout is an unambiguous positive for us here.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • rocklandmike March 16, 2017 at 10:00 am

    I was polled for this NJ Q-Poll! The questions were very Jersey specific and I was looking forward to the Gov approval ratings. I still approve of Christie’s performance despite all that has happened.

    • w920us March 16, 2017 at 11:01 am

      I give Christie props for having successfully moved the NJ Supremes from radical leftist to just center or center-left.


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • MosheM March 16, 2017 at 10:17 am

    Federal and state prosecutors investigating Bill de Blasio’s campaign fund-raising said they would not charge him.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/16/nyregion/mayor-bill-de-blasio-investigation-no-criminal-charges.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Izengabe March 16, 2017 at 10:31 am

      Less than a week after Preet gets axed they clear deBlasio? Now I understand his Tweet about understanding how the Moreland Commission felt.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Manhatlibertarian March 16, 2017 at 1:08 pm

        Still it is not clear that Preet would have prosecuted deBlasio unlike Kim; prosecutors are wary of prosecuting unless they feel chances are good they will get a conviction. Also why would Trump remove Preet to help deBlasio, who has been a loud critic of him. Doesn’t seem likely to me.

    • CTIronman March 16, 2017 at 10:33 am

      Of course not. Only Albany based hacks & local officials ever get charged in NY

    • Manhatlibertarian March 16, 2017 at 12:59 pm

      But while not charging deBlasio or his aides, the Manhattan DA and federal prosecutor, were like Comey with Clinton, critical of his behavior. Acting Fed Prosecutor Kim stated he didn’t prosecute for pay to play campaign contributions because of the “high level of proof” that a successful prosecution would require. And Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance Jr. (yes he is the son of the former US SOS) said in his investigation of deBlasio’s intent to get around state campaign contribution limitations for Dem State Senate candidates that he and his aides failed to abide by “…the intent and spirit of the law”. However he decided not to prosecute because he couldn’t prove the charges beyond a reasonable doubt. So while he won’t be prosecuted, there is critical language concerning his behavior (particularly by Vance) that an opponent could use. Not clear though if it is enough to motivate a Grade A challenger to enter the Dem primary against him; probably not.

      Also not clear from the article if the more recent charge against deBlasio that he intervened to reopen a Brooklyn religious school that was closed down for safety violations by the City Buildings Dept. after a phone call from a rabbi donor connected to the school has also been closed down or is still continuing.

  • rdelbov March 16, 2017 at 11:32 am

    Another Federal judge is retiring-he waited out the Obama years

    http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2017/03/10/jolly-vacate-5-us-circuit-court-seat/99005512/

    No other judicial nominations from Trump-yet-except for Gorsuch but I expect many will occur in the months to come.

  • Grant March 16, 2017 at 12:23 pm

    “She definitely sounds more well-informed than the interviewer, who apparently has no concept of what GamerGate was.”

    What exactly was it? Beyond the online harassment of a few female video game developers and writers (not to diminish that, which is obviously an issue)?


    26, R, OK-5

    • Son_of_the_South March 16, 2017 at 12:45 pm

      GamerGate was a bunch of video game fans who discovered that there was, in some cases, a more than cozy relationship between certain game developers and game reviewers. There was documented proof of a few developers sleeping with game reviewers (or gifts exchanging hands). This seemed to match up with some good reviews for games that most agreed sucked. Accusations of review-buying followed. Since many of these accusations were leveled at female game developers who allegedly slept with male reviewers for good reviews (and gamers aren’t known for their subtlety and restraint when they’re angry), this turned into a somewhat crude public shaming campaign. The goal was to get review sites to adopt ethics codes and dissuade developers from sleeping with reviewers. Developers and reviewers alike responded by trying to bury the story, then when they couldn’t, went all SJW on everyone and accused the GamerGate people of being on a misogynistic campaign. This turned into a full-on SJW vs anti-SJW fight (raging for a year and a half) that in many ways set the stage for the online portion of the current culture war.

      This is electorally relevant because it will affect how Brianna Wu gets treated by the media (deferentially), and how much pushback she might get if word of what she did during the fiasco reaches more moderate Dem primary voters.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Izengabe March 16, 2017 at 12:53 pm

        I’m not sure what any of this has to do with Brianna Wu’s crusade to prevent evil billionaires from taking over the moon and hurling rocks at the Earth. All I know is she’s the only one sounding the alarm on this crucial life and death issue!


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Son_of_the_South March 16, 2017 at 12:59 pm

          It’s the connection, man! You’re not seeing The Connection! Elon Musk can see into the future, so he knew she’d uncover his moon base plan. He created GamerGate to discredit her. It’s a False Flag, man!


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Greyhound March 16, 2017 at 1:09 pm

        Or to summarize, “Videogamers discovered that their journalists are just as insular and ideologically-driven as regular journalists”. I honestly think you’re underselling how bad it got towards the end. It crossed the “Issuing bomb threats and SWATting my opponents” threshold pretty quickly and somehow still devolved from there.


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

        • Son_of_the_South March 16, 2017 at 1:16 pm

          Well, that’s one of the reasons it was so important. It brought a bunch pf apolitical people into the public conversation, made them pick a side, and those that didn’t get their lives ruined emerged as hardened veterans of political combat. To be sure, it got out of hand on both sides, but that makes it all the more important.


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Grant March 16, 2017 at 1:51 pm

        Thanks for the info! When all of that was going on I deliberately ignored it.


        26, R, OK-5

        • Son_of_the_South March 16, 2017 at 1:53 pm

          Yeah, I only researched it later.


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • FiveAngels March 16, 2017 at 3:39 pm

            Any political and social history of 2010s written 30 years from now will feature GamerGate prominently.

            • GOPTarHeel March 16, 2017 at 5:19 pm

              Wut.

              Maybe a political and social history of Reddit or Twitter…but certainly not a broad-based history of the trends of American politics. I frankly find the entire thing bizarre. It’s like the Iran-Iraq War of the internet, but fighting over freaking video game reviews. I suppose it radicalized a group of young men (and some women) towards a resentment-based form of cultural conservativism which could be useful for Trump-style politics, but I find myself completely unable to care about the entire saga.


              R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

              • roguemapper March 16, 2017 at 6:01 pm

                The type of people who write history books aren’t likely to think the gamergate nonsense is even worth noting. Actually, I’d guess that 30 years from now no one will even remember it besides a scattering of 50-something losers who have inherited their mom’s basement!


                Dem NC-11

                • GOPTarHeel March 16, 2017 at 6:13 pm

                  It will certainly end up in a gender studies journal somewhere, but I agree. It’s hard to imagine the history professors that I did some minor research for in undergrad caring enough about this sort of thing to write about it! (Admittedly they were mostly Eastern European/German history and Cold War specialists)


                  R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

              • FiveAngels March 16, 2017 at 6:19 pm

                Ignoring major cultural events because they are not covered by Politico and 538 is a major reason why this blog (amog other places) was wrong about everything in 2016. Gamergate was Pearl Harbor of the war between SJWs and alt-right/4chan types and canary in a mine of the Trump campaign. Literally the first person I saw rock the MAGA hat was a gamer dude. Writing about 2010s without mentioning Gamergate would be like writing about 1960s and not mentioning SDS or YAF.

                • GOPTarHeel March 16, 2017 at 6:30 pm

                  Trump didn’t any better than Romney among white millenials though. The alt-right and tumblrinas are a marginal fraction of the population anyway. Maybe I’m wrong and ethics in video game journalism swung the Iron Range and Luzerne County, idk. Does GamerGate have any nexus with public policy in any form at all anyway?


                  R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

                  • FiveAngels March 16, 2017 at 7:17 pm

                    But Trump was supposed to tank among millenials, he was supposedly everything they hate about the world. So replicating Romney numbers was a miracle.

                    Politics is downstream from culture, as Andrew Breitbart said. While there’s no logical A to B road from frog memes to flipping Michigan, the first step of any winning presidential campaign is penetrating the collective consciousness. And events like Gamergate (and I think BLM protests and their backlash were hugely important) were Trump’s entry points.

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 16, 2017 at 7:12 pm

                  SDS and YAF were important because SDS burned down buildings and everyone else in the country went “oh hell no.” Similarly, antifa rioters in UC Berkeley are probably more relevant than every internet flame war combined. Until video game companies get firebombed, I can’t say GamerGate will be particularly important. That being said, I think you could say GamerGate vaguely mattered because I think that’s where Milo got his start. But other than that, I think it’s more symptomatic.

                  If anyone writes about it, it would be as a demonstration of preexisting social trends. There is for example, some evidence of a monstrous political gender gap opening up among the youngest generation of Americans that if holds, would be unprecedented in human history. Considering that we already have a marriage gap and the marriage rate for the young are collapsing, I wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually lived in a country where we had a 30-40 point gender gap in voting.

                  Trump did do better than Romney among millennials, because we can’t assume only liberal millenials decided to vote for Gary Johnson. And he presumably gained most strongly among minority men.

                  Interestingly, the typical image that boomers and the mainstream media gives of say, video game consumers is overweight unemployed white men with neckbeards. Because attacking white males makes them feel good. But video game players are disproportionately non-white, even for their age cohort (which is the most diverse ever). Most of the “SJW” rhetoric and policy in youth-orientated things from gaming to Title IX are ostensibly targeted at white men, but they largely hit non-white men.


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                  • FiveAngels March 16, 2017 at 7:32 pm

                    Flame wars are campus violence by other means. I’m pretty sure that the percentage of antifa rioters who have Tumblr accounts is considerable.

                    Speaking of the youth gender gap, I also think that’s one of the major reasons why marriage rates are falling. You have this incredible political polarization between boys and girls that means almost all dating is “reaching across the aisle” to borrow McCain’s favorite phrase. How many people really want to be married to someone who doesn’t at least broadly share their political views?

                    • GOPTarHeel March 16, 2017 at 7:51 pm

                      Maybe that’s where my disconnect from any of this comes in. I’m married to someone who shares my religious and political views. If anything she’s more conservative than I am. Maybe this gender gap really does exist, but not in my world. Personally I think both sides should join a religious congregation and let the women presssure them into dating each other 🙂


                      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

                    • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 16, 2017 at 8:28 pm

                      Historically, the gender gap is actually reversed (ie in most countries, women tend to vote more heavily for Conservative parties). I think Labour won the male vote in almost every British election until the Falklands election.

                      That being said, the decline of religiosity is also related to this insofar that political affiliation means a LOT more than it used to. Really, if a couple broke up because of disagreements about optimal marginal tax rates or the optimal size of the federal government or even whether the Vietnam War was a good/bad idea, they already had a lot of problems. Or in today’s parlance, one’s opinion on Obamacare, the Iraq War, or the TPP.

                      In the era of the new culture wars however, people of differing political backgrounds are genuinely personally incompatible. More than just political issues divide the tribes now. Most conservative men don’t want to see their daughters taught to be “gender non-conforming” and “sex-positive” from the “inevitable bell hooks for kids” books. And most liberal women are not going to want see their sons “poisoned by toxic masculinity” by being allowed to enjoy watching college football, playing games with guns, or watching Lord of the Rings (which has NO PoC representation as you know!!!).

                      People in the same religious congregation are likely to share the same broad overall values, but that is not true most of the time when secular millennials reach across the political aisle.


                      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                    • fzw March 16, 2017 at 10:33 pm

                      I mean, I doubt most people want to be married to someone who is their polar opposite on the political spectrum (usually there’s overlap somewhere on stances), but that’s not really one of those things most normal people prioritize in a potential partner (I could be wrong…). Every girl I’ve dated has been more liberal than me on things like gun control, but I think cultural issues like that (ones that break down along masculine/feminine lines like guns and abortion) are really where the gender gap comes from in couples for the most part, which is kinda obvious. I can’t really think of an economic reason besides the wage gap for why women would be more liberal than men.


                      NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
                      #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

                    • jncca March 16, 2017 at 10:48 pm

                      Women being more nurturing/caring/emotional seems like a good reason. It covers both economic and cultural issues…more bleeding-heart in general.


                      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

                    • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 17, 2017 at 12:54 am

                      Well, it’s always pointed out it’s more of a marriage gap than a gender gap. IE, married men and married women aren’t very different in voting behavior and I’ve even read a good deal of data suggesting married women are MORE conservative. Which makes sense, libertarians lean dramatically male, so we’d expect that the social-conservative, pro-life type (the Mike Huckabee/Rick Santorum voters) are disproportionately female. Which is also consistent with women being significantly more religious than men.

                      And single men are also more liberal than married men, but much more conservative than single women. So the real question is asking whether single women are so much more liberal than single men. The “bleeding-heart” rationale doesn’t really explain why single women would join a movement cheering for the death of 1/3rd of America, though it does explains why libertarians in particular are so ridiculously male. And something like “abortion” by itself isn’t a good explanation for this, because women aren’t significantly more pro-abortion than men.


                      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                  • GOPTarHeel March 16, 2017 at 7:54 pm

                    Trump didn’t do significantly better among young minority men. Young minority male turnout collapsed in key states, in many cases by 10-20 points. That made the few GOP voters a larger percentage simply by subtracting a share of the other side. He may have gained some votes but not more than 2-3% more of the voting cohort.


                    R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

                  • cincojotas March 16, 2017 at 8:53 pm

                    @VBKC –

                    I’ve always wondered what caused a political gender gap to exist. I was talking with someone about this and they mentioned that leftism itself changed when you compare the McGovern-era left with the current left. The leftism then may have actually been countercultural while that isn’t really the case now. Leftism in its present form is quotidian and thus, in its own way, conservative. Women historically have tended towards conformity/consensus (which is why drug use and criminality are more prevalent among men than women) so women in the present year will tend to lean more toward the democrats as they seem to be the party (for the time being) with the megaphone/narrative.

  • MosheM March 16, 2017 at 12:34 pm

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/15/us/politics/trump-travel-ban.html

    Another judge blocked the travel ban. Another Obama judge.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • GerGOP March 16, 2017 at 12:59 pm

      What I miss in this checks-and-balance system is a check on the courts.

      • krazen1211 March 16, 2017 at 1:35 pm

        Maybe they should have asked a judge to stop the war in Iraq around 2005.

        • Left Coast Libertarian March 16, 2017 at 7:25 pm

          What you’re indicating is a remedy. There was no remedy here. Trump doesn’t have to admit any refugees or give visas to anyone. The judge didn’t say that the government even had to give the imam’s mother a visa.

      • Manhatlibertarian March 16, 2017 at 1:39 pm

        While on one level I’m not clear as to how much the Trump temporary travel ban on non Green Card/Visa holders entering the US from the six named countries will actually combat terrorism in the US, the issue here is whether a federal court can decide the Pres has acted unconstitutionally in an area where the Pres has historically been given wide latitude. The court has disregarded the language of the new EO temporary travel ban and instead stated that because of comments made by Trump during the presidential campaign it is really a “Muslim ban” despite there being nothing in the EO indicating that. I think basing a decision on an EO on campaign rhetoric and not what is says is a poor example of jurisprudence but not unexpected by a liberal judge. I think the liberal ninth circuit court of appeals is likely to uphold the judge’s decision so it really comes down to the SCOTUS. If Gorsuch gets on the bench I think you are more likely to have a decision based on what the EO actually states but I’m not clear if an appeal from the ninth circuit court decision will be before the current 8 member court or a court with him on it. Remember a 4-4 split has the effect of upholding the decision of the appeals court.

        • reedc March 16, 2017 at 2:10 pm

          ^This. The ban is stupid because it does nothing to actually combat terrorism. The courts are stupid because I think Trump does have this authority. But let’s be honest. This was never designed to combat terrorism. It’s all optics. And the ONLY optics involved here is that Trump wants to look like he his fulfilling his campaign pledge to ban Muslims despite what the actual EO says or doesn’t say about banning Muslims.

          At this point the State Department and DHS will have their review done by the time the courts are done with this and any kind of temporary ban will be pointless.

        • The Emperor March 16, 2017 at 3:19 pm

          The Court would often hold a rehearing for cases decided on a 4-4 when a new justice gets appointed, because a 4-4 decision is not binding on future decisions.


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

    • HS March 16, 2017 at 1:09 pm

      Yes. And the Muslim Imam who is claiming his rights were infringed is, of course, affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood.

  • TheWizardOf144 March 16, 2017 at 1:38 pm

    “candidates can get multiple ballot lines by endorsement…”

    You are fake news (this is very, very incorrect)

    • shamlet March 16, 2017 at 3:15 pm

      We appreciate constructive corrections to our mistakes but you don’t get to come on here and be nasty to us. Two day ban.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • w920us March 16, 2017 at 3:22 pm

      I don’t mean to add to a closed discussion. But the above poster is incorrect. I Don’t the mean the moderator. And the writer of the roundup is correct. I know that in some counties the two parties have cross-endorsed candidates. The same goes for school board candidates.


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • Izengabe March 16, 2017 at 3:41 pm

        I thought PA didn’t allow fusion voting. Anyone know the correct answer to this? Paging our in house Pennsylvania election law expert.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • rdelbov March 16, 2017 at 3:52 pm

          Not an expert but if I recall judgeships and school board posts (in theory somewhat non partisan) can be mutlit party

          • Ryan_in_SEPA March 16, 2017 at 9:33 pm

            Correct. You can cross file for them.

            I think the issue is regarding party endorsements. They have no legal significance regarding ballot access.


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

            • Son_of_the_South March 16, 2017 at 9:43 pm

              And I edited the roundup to reflect that.


              23, R, DC-AL
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • Ryan_in_SEPA March 17, 2017 at 6:15 am

                Yep. The endorsements are significant in the sense that the party’s will actively campaign for you.


                31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

                • w920us March 17, 2017 at 8:34 am

                  I also know that in the past Delco Democrats and others have endorsed the least objectionable Republicans since they frequently didn’t have a full slate themselves. Although in such cases they weren’t actively supporting them in anyway beyond that endorsement.

                  The Philly GOP has done the same under arrangements with Brady.


                  R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
                  #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • Manhatlibertarian March 16, 2017 at 2:03 pm

    Interesting that while Trump paid taxes in 2005 at a 25% rate, Obama paid taxes at a 19% rate and our old friend Bernie Sanders at a 13% rate. Despite Rachel Maddow’s hyped up claims about the 2005 Trump tax return there is really nothing very damaging to him in it. In fact it shows that the NY Times reporter, who based on what was indicated in a previously stolen tax return claimed Trump probably didn’t pay any federal taxes for up to 18 years due to a big loss, was in fact wrong. The big loss was in 1995 and the tax return just “released” showing Trump did pay taxes was in 2005 only 10 year later. Don’t sit around waiting for an apology from the NY Times reporter.

    https://thehornnews.com/trump-destroys-rachel-maddow-ouch/

  • RogueBeaver March 16, 2017 at 3:11 pm

    VA-GOV: Riggleman drops out. https://twitter.com/RTDSchapiro/status/842452740974489602


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • rdelbov March 16, 2017 at 3:19 pm

      Riggleman ends his longshot campaign and frankly too smart of a man to finish third or fourth in this primary

  • edtorres04 March 16, 2017 at 3:56 pm

    VA: Do we have good candidates for Lt Gov and AG?

    • bluewahoo March 16, 2017 at 4:15 pm

      The GOP has three amazing candidates for Lt. Gov who would all be favored over any of the Democrats if they (only two of them, really) would stop eating each other alive in this primary.

      Vogel has immense fundraising potential on her own, not to mention an uber-rich family business to back her. She has a moderate record on gay rights, which is a plus for the general election. Also she might be the only woman on any of the tickets this year. I’d say she’s the slight favorite in the primary and general at this point. You can to the googling yourself, but she may or may not have been involved in a pretty vicious slander of her opponent though, and the investigation into that could change things.

      Some dude’s are running for AG and Herring is the favorite by far.

      • LtNOWIS March 16, 2017 at 5:48 pm

        John Adams, the frontrunner for the AG nomination, is a notch above a Some Dude in my view. He clerked for Clarence Thomas, worked in the Bush White House, and was a federal prosecutor. Moreover, he was running an active campaign as far back as a year ago and was fundraising well last time I checked.


        28, VA-11

        • kewgardens March 16, 2017 at 6:26 pm

          Can’t imagine a guy named John Adams would perform well in Virginia. 🙂

          Maybe they need a nominee named James Madison.

          • californianintexas March 16, 2017 at 8:36 pm

            Or Thomas Jefferson! Two candidates with that name did run, only in Nevada in 1994, and Kansas in 2012, and both were from minor parties.


            34, Female, Libertarian-leaning Independent, UT-02 (hometown CA-31)

      • VirginianVoter March 16, 2017 at 9:38 pm

        While the gubernatorial race is obviously important, I think Republicans should pay very close attention to the LG race, especially if Justin Fairfax is the Democratic nominee. If he wins, I think he’ll be a rising Democrat star. My guess is Vogel is probably the toughest opponent for him.

    • SwingStateRepublican March 16, 2017 at 5:50 pm

      For LG, all three are strong as said by Bluewahoo. John Adams is the likely nominee for AG, having raised much more money. However he is probably a C-list candidate at best. Earlier this year very conservative Del. Rob Bell dropped out, who lost to Obenshain at 2013 convention.


      20/R/NC-4(College)/VA-7(Home)
      Social liberal, fiscal conservative

  • kewgardens March 16, 2017 at 6:16 pm

    Voter turnout in 2016 topped 2012 levels. http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/324206-new-report-finds-that-voter-turnout-in-2016-topped-2012

    Includes a graphic showing turnout by state. Minnesota was highest. Hawaii at 43% was lowest. Encouraging that GOP won in Wisconsin and Iowa with high relative turnout. But vote-by-mail (Colorado) and same-day registration seems to really spike turnout.

    • rdelbov March 16, 2017 at 7:07 pm

      I was three quarters right about 2016 turnout

      1st I was wrong when I suggested that overall turnout would be lower in real numbers then in 2012
      2nd I was right when I suggested that the % of turnout would be lower then in 2012
      3rd I was right about minority turnout being lower then 2012 & 2008
      4th I was also right about the decline in % of younger voters.

      • rdelbov March 16, 2017 at 7:12 pm

        I might also that yes states with more minority voters or a high non-citizen population naturally has lower turnout numbers then say Maine or MN or SD or Maine. Some midwestern states also tend to have an older population base which helps turnout numbers.

        Method of voting is also critical. All mail in elections gin up turnout. Yes same day and early voting in person helps as well.

        One reason I dislike the NPV concept is the idea OR with mail in ballots and same day registrations-no voter ID requirement gets a yuge turnout while other states set different standards

      • Manhatlibertarian March 16, 2017 at 8:55 pm

        Yes the decline in minority turnout in 2016 was not unexpected given the fact Obama was not on the ballot. Yet I remember several polls that had the white share of the electorate in the 65% to 67% range despite exit polls that showed the white share of the electorate in 2012 being 72% (and that may have been a low number). Hard to see how such electorate percentages could be justified in a poll.

  • shamlet March 16, 2017 at 8:06 pm

    OK State Sen. Ralph Shortey (R-OKC) arrested on child prostitution charges after being found with a 17-year old boy. https://www.yahoo.com/news/oklahoma-senate-punishes-senator-found-teen-motel-053111912.html


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • GOPTarHeel March 16, 2017 at 8:08 pm

      Literally found with a live boy.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

      • Manhatlibertarian March 16, 2017 at 8:37 pm

        Shortey is a married man and hypocrite who consistently opposed gay/transgender rights in the State Senate while leading a secret life with male prostitutes. Not the first time we have seen hypocrites like him and probably not the last.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 16, 2017 at 8:53 pm

          It’s not necessarily ideologically hypocritical to oppose gay marriage or any of the transgender stuff while uh, having your fun, unless your political agenda is to reverse Lawrence v. Texas and make sodomy a crime again.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • Manhatlibertarian March 16, 2017 at 9:18 pm

            Yeah but he even voted for legislation to make it easier for businesses to not serve LGBT people; the guy is a lying hypocrite pure and simple.

            A bizarre twist is that he sponsored legislation making it a crime to use aborted human fetuses in food, which went nowhere in the Okla State Senate. I was definitely not aware that human fetuses are a “culinary delicacy.”

    • jncca March 16, 2017 at 8:42 pm

      But he’s not the most prominent arrested conservative today. That honor would go to Steve Stockman, who funneled $350,000 from his charity to himself.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • Son_of_the_South March 16, 2017 at 9:50 pm

        Oh ma dear!


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Manhatlibertarian March 16, 2017 at 8:23 pm

    Thursday NY Tidbits:

    Dems in the vacant 9th Assembly District have picked Christine Pellegrino, a teacher and leader of the “Opt Out” movement that opposes Common Core testing as their candidate in the May 23rd Special Election. The seat became vacant when GOP Assemblyman Joseph Saladino became Oyster Bay Township Supervisor.

    Another name being mentioned as a possible replacement for Preet Bharara for the Southern NY District US Attorney position is Ed McNally, who served as US Attorney for the Southern District of Illinois and as a federal prosecutor in Manhattan.

    Dems in the East End of Suffolk have approached Assemblyman Fred Thiele to run against 1st CD GOP Congressman Lee Zeldin. Thiele is reportedly considering a run.

    NYC Councilman Eric Ulrich will announce next week whether or not he will challenge Park Avenue developer Paul Massey for the GOP nomination for mayor against deBlasio. Not sure which way he will go but his fund raising has been weak.

    Meanwhile Massey reported raising $850,000 in the last 2 month reporting period compared to Mayor deBlasio’s $394,000 (60% from out of state). But Massey again spent more than he raised.

    Massey also indicated he will not let deBlasio off the hook for violating campaign contribution limits for State Senate candidates he supported despite the decision by Manhattan DA Vance to not prosecute. Massey noted however that Vance stated that deBlasio’s actions were “…contrary to the intent and spirit of the laws.” Massey has called for the state Board of Elections to hit deBlasio with a civil action for violating the regulations.

    Finally, mainstream Dem Deputy Minority Leader Mike Gianaris had a bitter clash with Dem IDC faction member Marisol Alcantara on the State Senate floor during budget discussions, after Gianaris called IDC members like Alcantara “Trump Democrats”. Alcantara, who was arrested during an anti-Trump demonstration a few months ago, fired back verbally and the argument began to take on racial overtones. GOP State Senate Majority Leader Flanagan had to intervene to stop the bitter argument and call for “civility”.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

    • shamlet March 16, 2017 at 9:19 pm

      Ulrich should probably defer to Massey. If I were him I’d probably run for LG instead – it’s a long shot but probably his best chance of staying relevant and he’d be a good complement to any of the major candidates.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Manhatlibertarian March 16, 2017 at 9:46 pm

        I agree. He is term limited and can’t run for re-election but unless he thinks he can suddenly raise a lot of $ I don’t see much point in him challenging Massey. He ought to keep his powder dry for another race.

        • Izengabe March 16, 2017 at 11:15 pm

          Ulrich should run for state senate in 2018. He lost badly in 2012 but mainly because his political base in the district was literally destroyed by Sandy. If he ran in 2014 I think he could have won. A run for Public Advocate on the platform of eliminating the office might also be a good move for him. He’s basically running for Mayor as part of a reality TV show they are filming about him. If its all just a publicity stunt at least run for an office in which you cant take a position that will offend anyone.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • FitchMike26 March 17, 2017 at 2:17 pm

      Manhatlibertarian, this is another fantastic NY post. Thanks for keeping us in the loop!


      37, PA-7 transplant, born & raised in the current PA-4 (the old PA-17).

  • cinyc March 16, 2017 at 8:44 pm

    For what it’s worth (and, again, perhaps not much), Castro at uslectionatlas.org decided to re-run my Google Surveys MT-AL Special election poll, and ended up with a statistical tie between Gianforte and Quist, 47-47-6 (weighted). The sample size was smaller, N=230. The East/West divide was still there in the results, albeit not as stark, as was a rural/suburban divide. The biggest difference between his poll and mine was that the 55-65s and 65+s went Gianforte, instead of Quist.

    The question asked was identical. The choices were a little different – this poll phrased them as Greg Gianforte (Republican Party) instead of Republican Greg Gianforte, etc.

    You can see my spreadsheet of the results with other subgroup breakdowns here:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XUxjxg70OhTrVtm6K2HulJHaRDVbuD_VN_gPUxrNIUc/edit?usp=sharing

  • StatenIslandTest March 16, 2017 at 11:01 pm

    Last night Ciattarelli beat Guadagno for the “line” in Mercer County (Trenton/Princeton, He represents Princeton because of the Dem gerrymander). He also got the support of the screening committee in Middlesex where he represents South Brunswick, though a March 25th convention will award that line. Next Thursday is the Bergen GOP convention which is a county that while increasingly blue is 10 pct of Republicans statewide.

    Though it looks like Bergen may be leaning Guadagno:
    https://www.insidernj.com/guadagno-drubs-ciattarelli-at-bergen-gop-screening/


    31, Jersey City

    • The Emperor March 16, 2017 at 11:12 pm

      On your statements about Bergen, I’ve seen a trend in New Jersey that the south is becoming more Republican over time while the north is trending more Democratic. You could see it in 2016, and in the 2013 special election


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • Greyhound March 16, 2017 at 11:30 pm

        Makes sense. South Jersey is Rocky Balboa-ville, while North Jersey is essentially West Manhattan


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

        • The Emperor March 17, 2017 at 1:45 am

          Trump won Gloucester County, first Republican to do so since 1988


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

    Leave a Reply