St. Patrick’s Day 2017 Open Thread

  • We seem to have had a schedule mix-up. Too much green beer and corned beef this morning. Since it’s​ a slow news cycle we will be taking a day off, but here is an open thread for general discussion and a warning about what can happen when you wear a green tie on national TV HERE
  • (SOTS) For y’all’s general amusement, HERE’S a picture of me and a friend protesting Jon Ossoff outside of the DNC yesterday. Ossoff was inside for a fundraiser. We managed to annoy John Lewis, Keith Ellison, and some journalist, but they snuck Ossoff out the back.
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  • edtorres04 March 17, 2017 at 8:49 am

    Circuit Court News: Amul Thapar is being vetting for an opening:

    I believe RDBLOV predicted this one a few months back, but still very good news. Let’s hope he is the next choice for the Supreme Court when someone retires.

    • rdelbov March 17, 2017 at 9:30 am

      By some accounts numerous judicial nominations are in the FBI background stage. Sessions Justice department, apparently, will follow Bush 43 precedence and not use ABA to screen nominees. Not sure of the timing but by all accounts many GOP senators are working hard on nominations. States with D senators will slow down district court nominees but I suspect they will be worked on as well.

      • The Emperor March 17, 2017 at 11:26 am

        Sigh, they need to ditch the rule regarding Senatorial Approval. Just approach the senior Republicans in the Blue State and get them working on the judges

        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

    • dforston March 17, 2017 at 10:34 am


    • Son_of_the_South March 17, 2017 at 11:02 am

      There was no way it wasn’t coming. Thapar (of whom I’m a big fan) is a special kind of stubborn. He is 100% guaranteed to not turn living constitutionalist if he gets on SCOTUS. Add in the ethnic thing, and his getting promoted is a no-brainer.

      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • FiveAngels March 17, 2017 at 11:56 am

        Democrats will probably try everything to smear him during his 6th circuit confirmation, simply to lay down a marker for a possible SCOTUS battle. They do this all the time when GOP tries to put minority conservatives on circuit courts and they will do it to anyone on Trump’s SCOTUS list who is not already on a circuit court (that’s one of the downsides of making a list like that).

        • rdelbov March 17, 2017 at 12:05 pm

          The good news is that with Reid’s nuclear option we only need 51 votes to confirm. D senators could slow us down on district judges but circuit court IMO will go quickly.

          • FiveAngels March 17, 2017 at 12:08 pm

            I wonder what Grassley will do about circuit nominees from blue states. Some of his statements make you think he will still respect the blue slip privileges, some don’t.

            • rdelbov March 17, 2017 at 1:11 pm

              Blue slips have never applied to Circuit court appointments.

              Of course when the party in the white house is different then the party that controls the senate you will see some wheeling and dealing.

              One reason Obama only confirmed three circuit judges in 2015 & 2016 is that he only played hardball over nominations to the federal bench.

              So IMO the GOP will have no major problems doing nominations for circuit spots –2017-2018 cycle.

              Assuming we keep control after 2018 elections we can free wheel til Jan 2021.

              I note another reason Obama had few district court spots in 2015-2016 confirmed is that he played hardball with GOP senators.

              • FiveAngels March 17, 2017 at 3:09 pm

                Blue slips have been applied to circuit court nominees in both Bush and Obama era. Here’s an example of blue slip process being even used intraparty for petty personal reasons:


                • rdelbov March 17, 2017 at 4:27 pm

                  Technically the problems confirming Circuit court judges from Reagan ( I could mention Nixon/Ford/Carter but Eastland & Kennedy played by different rules) to Obama were not blue slip matters. Senators historically have been not asked to return blue slips on circuit court nominees. Circuit court nominees historically have been the perogrative of the President.

                  That is not to say that many many many disputes have taken place. I note that Jesse Helms was able to place a hold (for a time period) on all nominees to the 4th circuit during the Clinton years. Levin from Michigan put a hold on all 6th circuit nominees–not just those from Michigan for a period of time during the Bush years.

                  Slate Gorton placed a hold on all nominees to the 9th during the Clinton years until a GOP judge was nominated from Washington state to the circuit. I could go on and on about circuit court confirmation woes during the Reagan, Bush and Bush years. They were not blue slip affairs but rather senators exercising their senatorial privilege to place road blocks in front of nominees.

                  These were not blue slip affairs. Very very rarely does a President ignore the choice of a senator from his party and that was the case of Menendez. As a courtesy to him Senate Dems stalled it but it was not blue slip. I note Senator Burr objected to several D nominees to the 4th circuit but he was SOL in stopping them because the blue slip went squat to Leahy and Reid.

                  They key is the GOP has 52 senators to move nominations. Circuit court nominees will IMO will get confirmed. I use to say that District court slots mattered less but now with the court at 4-4 they matter alot. Trump/Sessions will have to wheel and deal some on district spots.

                  • FiveAngels March 17, 2017 at 7:50 pm

                    You can call the process “blue slip” or give it some other name but the fact is that the circuit court nominees have a much harder time advancing if their home state Senators are for the other party, or oppose them from some other reason. That’s why D.C. Circuit appointements are often given to people who might have a hard time getting pass their home state Senators. For example, I will be amazed if the two currently vacant New York seats on the 2nd Circuit are filled by two conservatives. It will almost certainly come down to some kind of a deal with Schumer.

                    Burr endorsed the Obama judges on the 4th Circuit from NC, both of whom were confirmed by voice votes. It was obviously a quid pro quo. James Wynn is a liberal and Albert Diaz is technically a Democrat too but Diaz is now one of the more conservative judges on that Circuit. The fact that Burr opposed Obama’s nominees to 4th circuit from other states and they still got confirmed doesn’t mean Leahy took away his blue slip privileges — he never had them as far as those states were concerned. When Helms was blocking nominees from other states, Republicans held the Senate, which is a completely different situation and reduces the importance of blue slips greatly.

                    • rdelbov March 17, 2017 at 8:38 pm

                      Uh no. The rule of 51 (nuclear option) means that you can no longer filibuster judges (Surpreme court is exception) or cabinet officers.

                      So no compromise is needed except you need to get GOP senators in line with Trump. D senators are powerless now on judicial matters.

  • MosheM March 17, 2017 at 8:50 am

    NY isn’t done counting.

    29, M, R, NY-10

    • FiveAngels March 17, 2017 at 11:57 am

      Trump +4, cutting into that popular vote lead. By year 2307 maybe we find out he won NPV after all.

      • Izengabe March 17, 2017 at 12:11 pm

        Do you really think New York will be done counting by 2307?

        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • pstchrisp March 17, 2017 at 9:08 am

    There’s been some big news in Central Florida as the State Attorney Aramis Ayala decided she wasn’t going to seek the death penalty for cop and pregnant wife-killer Markeith Loyd.
    Outrage erupted from most sides, including prominent Democrat Sheriff Jerry Demings (Rep. Val’s husband). Rick Scott took the case away from her, and she is getting brutalized in the media. She won a bruising Primary on a Social Justice Warrior platform that Minorities were being treated differently by police and took a lot of money from Soros during that campaign.
    This will probably sink any future political ambitions that she had. Her “election” in the Primary in 2016 also shows how putting a Write-in candidate in the General Election gets around Florida Law, closes the Dem Primary, and prevents the GOP voters from being able to cross-over and vote in the Dem Primary, which helped Ayala.

  • RRR March 17, 2017 at 11:03 am

    “Trump to Snyder: ‘I never forget’ those who didn’t endorse me”.

    ….Magnanimity embodied.

    PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
    More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • Wahoowa March 17, 2017 at 11:10 am

      Except for the fact he vetted Romney and appointed Nikki Haley


    • rdelbov March 17, 2017 at 11:21 am

      Yet they were side by side joking about it.

      • RRR March 17, 2017 at 11:49 am

        Anyone with any sense of such things can see how uncomfortable the others in the photo looked after The Donald made that “joke.”

        PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
        More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

  • MosheM March 17, 2017 at 11:19 am

    Morning Consult has Trump approval at 52/43. Heavy outlier.

    29, M, R, NY-10

    • rdelbov March 17, 2017 at 11:27 am–except-among-democrats-2017-03-17

      consumer sentiment is near record highs==wouldn’t it be ironic if we get into a Clinton-GOP phase like 95-2000. Clinton will not like the GOP do tax cuts and spending cuts while the GOP will not let Clinton take over healthcare and spend like a drunken sailor. The economy and markets surge.

      If Trump mitigates Obamacare by decree (with no repeal as both Ds and Rs stymie him) and along the edges while Ds stymie tax cuts but Trump slows spending down while consumer confidence soars-we see an economic upswing and Trump gets re-elected. Just saying.that could account for approval uptick

      • StatenIslandTest March 17, 2017 at 2:26 pm

        Maybe im being delusional but Morning Consult numbers make more sense. High consumer sentiment and good stock market beats anxiety about other mannerisms and policies.

        32, Jersey City

  • RogueBeaver March 17, 2017 at 11:24 am

    FL-SEN: Potential Scott announcement next month?

    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • RRR March 17, 2017 at 12:29 pm

      Speaking of FL, how do we think Fratrick Murphy is celebrating his patron saint’s day?

      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

      • The Emperor March 17, 2017 at 12:55 pm

        How else. Yacht party in Nantucket

        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

  • RRR March 17, 2017 at 11:35 am

    SOTS: Knowing both you and your unnamed friend quite well, I’m almost certain that neither of you has handwriting good enough for those signs. 🙂

    PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
    More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • Son_of_the_South March 17, 2017 at 11:40 am

      And you would be correct, sir! We had a bit of help on the front end.

      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Grant March 17, 2017 at 11:44 am

        Nice job on the party boy Han Solo outfits!

        26, R, OK-5

        • Son_of_the_South March 17, 2017 at 11:49 am

          Thanks. Originally we were just going to do the costumes, but Izengabe had a good suggestion about making it accurate, so I bought some Solo cups.

          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • shamlet March 17, 2017 at 11:43 am

    Needless to say I as one of our two teetotaler mods did not write the line about green beer! I actually decided to wear orange today to try and restore some cultural unionist/nationalist balance…

    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Son_of_the_South March 17, 2017 at 11:51 am

      Hey, man, surprisingly it wasn’t me! I have the opposite problem.; all my green clothing is olive drab and I’m hitting the bars later!

      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Greyhound March 17, 2017 at 11:54 am

      Wait, do we have a third one or are you counting me? I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned that on here before.

      R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • RRR March 17, 2017 at 11:57 am

        Four sober years in SLO? Were you the only one?

        PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
        More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

        • Greyhound March 17, 2017 at 12:36 pm

          It certainly felt that way. Though admittedly Cal Poly is probably the most sober place on the central coast. It’s no UCSC or UCSB, that’s for sure, and its probably the only place on the West Coast North of LA where “Agriculture Major” isn’t just a euphemism for pot farmer.

          R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

          • jncca March 17, 2017 at 1:09 pm

            Chico has agriculture AND tons of drinking.

            24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • shamlet March 17, 2017 at 12:10 pm

        I guess it’s three – you, me, and Ryan I think?

        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • RRR March 17, 2017 at 12:13 pm

          I thought GBRS teetotaled as well.

          PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
          More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

          • Ryan_in_SEPA March 17, 2017 at 3:05 pm

            I am a teetotaler in the eyes of the Irish as only drink wine occasionally.

            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

            • Izengabe March 17, 2017 at 3:11 pm

              I never drink on any days that don’t end in a “y”.

              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Izengabe March 17, 2017 at 12:25 pm

      Evacuation Day is November 25th! Who cares when the British left Boston. New York is what matters! Sláinte!

      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Republican Michigander March 17, 2017 at 1:04 pm – A rare decent article from my local Gannett rag. I’ve crossed paths with Tim Alberta before and make it a point to read his stuff. I don’t know how different his politics are from his dad’s, but at least he’s respectful to our side.

    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Republican Michigander March 17, 2017 at 1:08 pm

    “”Too much green beer”” – On a sidenote, I think most here know that my ancestry is mostly Irish (3/4). I can honestly say that I’ve never had green beer (which isn’t Irish). I don’t plan on starting either. I’ll drink a Guinness, Murphy’s, or a glass of good Irish whiskey instead.

    I’m at the age now of quality over quantity most of the time these days anyway. Beside being well known enough not to want to make a jackass out of myself, hangovers really suck after age 30.

    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • RogueBeaver March 17, 2017 at 1:10 pm

    VA-GOV: Podesta endorses Perriello, TP’s 2nd (Tanden was 1st) notable Clintonworld endorsement.

    QC/Blue Tory/M

  • Izengabe March 17, 2017 at 1:49 pm

    MT-AL: Greg Gianforte (R) is up with his 1st ad which focuses on the Federal Government’s “War on the West”. This line of attack makes sense. Quist is on record wanting a registry for guns and opposing local control of federal land. On a side note its sad to see GOP candidates parroting Trump’s talking points on trade and China. The GOP used to be the party of economic liberty and free enterprise……

    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • GOPTarHeel March 17, 2017 at 2:39 pm

      Abraham Lincoln was a protectionist though. Republicans have swung back and forth on the free trade pendulum over the course of the party’s history.

      R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

      • Izengabe March 17, 2017 at 2:48 pm

        Well when Lincoln was for tariffs the Democrats were for slavery. Things change. For the last half century the GOP has been the party of free markets and the Democrats have been the party of progressive big government. The GOP taking the big government progressive’s position on trade is certainly a change.The question is is this just rhetoric or does it mean real policy changes in the future. If the GOP starts voting like Democrats on trade what then?

        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • jncca March 17, 2017 at 2:59 pm

          I’d expect the Democrats (as the party of the educated and the cosmopolitan) to be much more supportive of free trade while the Republicans (as the party of the White working class and the nativists) continue to oppose.

          Seems like a logical position within the Seventh Party System.

          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • Izengabe March 17, 2017 at 3:02 pm

          When Bill Clinton brought the NAFTA treaty to Congress 132 Republicans voted for it in the House only 43 Against. In the Senate 34 Republicans voted for it and 10 against. 156 Democrats voted against their President and the treaty and 102 voted for it. In the Senate 27 Dems voted for it and 28 against.

          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • segmentation_fault March 17, 2017 at 3:00 pm

        I think Izengabe would have been a Grover Cleveland Democrat in the 1800s

        En Marche!

        • Izengabe March 17, 2017 at 3:04 pm

          Yes! I would have been a proud Mugwump. Grover Cleveland is my favorite Democrat and I think he is one of the better (and most underrated) Presidents in US History.

          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • Son_of_the_South March 17, 2017 at 3:34 pm

            I as well

            24, R, TN-09
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • HS March 17, 2017 at 3:57 pm

      I am not sure that Mountain Republicans, especially from Montana, were particularly pro-free trade though, even during the height of Reagan and the Bushes. We want candidates who appeal to their states, and I know that Montana has a large populist base that always made the Democrats competitive.

      • jncca March 17, 2017 at 5:08 pm

        Montana doesn’t really manufacture, which is the industry that most benefits from protectionism, so I’d expect it wouldn’t be as much of an issue there. They have a lot of ranching, and America exports plenty of food products. Plus some mining, which again, our mining isn’t really suffering from foreign competition.

        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • GerGOP March 17, 2017 at 2:05 pm

    The vote for GOPcare (is that the official name now?) has been scheduled for thursday next week.
    Tbh, my gut says it’ll be a disastrous and embarassing floor loss.

    • GOPTarHeel March 17, 2017 at 2:40 pm

      Nah, they’ll push it through and then it will be gutted on the Senate side.

      R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

    • krazen1211 March 17, 2017 at 3:43 pm

      Keep in mind that there is an incentive for the fence sitters to grandstand a bit. Ben Nelson was a no on Obamacare for a long time until he got the Cornhusker kickback and some other things. Lieberman and Stupak got their things in.

      It’s an odd year. I think its hard to have a ‘disaster’ kind of by definition and timing. We had a shutdown in 2013, remember?

  • Left Coast Libertarian March 17, 2017 at 2:15 pm

    Interesting VBM returns for CA-34 special. Only about 2% of registered voters have voted. Even in a poor turnout special election I have to think about 10% will turn out. The District is 58%D/9% R (VBM is 59%D/9%R) but the VBMs are 58%D/14%R so far. I can’t think of a reason that Republicans would send in their ballots. This is the only election on the ballot and the GOP has no shot. There is only one Republican on the ballot.

    Registered voters are 49% Latino/16% Asian but VBMs are 36% Asian/26% Latino. I don’t know the ethnicity of everyone on the ballot but it looks like 15 Latinos, 5 Whites, 1African-American, and 2 Asians.

    It’s been widely expected that Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez would be the likely winner, but right now I’m not certain he’ll make the run off. If Republicans and a smattering of independents vote for the Republican William Morrison, he should make the run off with 15-20% of the vote. When Asians vote they tend to bolster the Asian candidates. There are only two, so it’d be unsurprising if Robert Lee Ahn or Steven Mac make the run off. Mac is a county prosecutor.

    Bernie Sanders won the district and three candidates are claiming to be cut from the Sanders cloth, including Arturo Carmona, Sanders’ deputy political director during the presidential campaign. The LA Times predicts Gomez will make the run off. I’m not ready to predict he won’t but I see the possibility that he won’t.

    • MosheM March 17, 2017 at 3:05 pm

      Solid stuff! Thanks

      29, M, R, NY-10

  • Manhatlibertarian March 17, 2017 at 3:23 pm

    Some interesting speculation about Preet Bharara. Besides his comment about feeling like the Moreland Commission (investigated NY State corruption) that was abruptly dismissed by Cuomo, Preet has retweeted a tweet by Ben Max of Gotham Gazette that was critical of Cuomo for being relatively silent in recent weeks about ethic reforms. Interestingly the NY Times posted a story this weekend stating that Cuomo warned a Trump adviser that Preet was a “bad guy” and he is “not your friend” (Cuomo denied saying this but who knows).

    So might Bharara be thinking of challenging Cuomo in the Dem primary for Gov? Probably not; for one thing Cuomo is sitting on a $22 million dollar campaign warchest already. But if Bharara did get into a primary with Cuomo it sure would be an interesting race.

    • Izengabe March 17, 2017 at 3:35 pm

      I don’t think Preet could win a Dem primary vs Cuomo. He’d have a better shot at running for Mayor. If he doesnt beat deBlasio in the primary he could run on a 3rd party line in the general and run on a goo-goo platform that elected Bloomberg.

      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Izengabe March 17, 2017 at 3:36 pm

        Preet’s best option would be if Schniederman primaries Cuomo. Preet could walk into the AG’s office.

        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Izengabe March 17, 2017 at 3:38 pm

          In fact the NY GOP should give him a Wilson Pekula and let him be their AG candidate in 2018!

          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Manhatlibertarian March 17, 2017 at 4:29 pm

        Yeah I think Preet would have a better shot at deBlasio then Cuomo, but he seems more focused on the state level. I don’t see him spending the rest of his career just working for some law firm, so I think sooner or later he will make a move to run for a statewide office in NY. The question is when. Of course if Trump wants to extend an olive branch to Schumer, who is a Preet advocate, he could make Bharara a federal district court judge, but probably not.

  • Mike1965 March 17, 2017 at 3:44 pm

    MN-Gov: In a shocker Lt. Gov.Tina Smith won’t run for governor in 2018. Had been seen as Gov Dayton’s preferred replacement.


    • Mike1965 March 17, 2017 at 4:31 pm

      And FWIW Twitter rumors (from a usually plugged in source) that Rick Nolan is very close to getting in the Governors race.


    • krazen1211 March 17, 2017 at 4:38 pm

      So the Dem favorite is Chris Coleman then?

      • Mike1965 March 17, 2017 at 4:45 pm

        Wide open. Coleman and/or Walz and Nolan if they get in would be favorites IMO. A lot depends on who gets in, who abides by the convention results, and who goes on to Primary. Will probably come down to how many Rural/Metro area candidates are on the primary ballot.


        • rdelbov March 17, 2017 at 6:30 pm

          IMO no doubt about it that MS Smith was the most formidable D candidate in a GE. It would be like running against Grandma and a brainy Grandma at that.

          Not only opens up the D primary but gives the GOP new life for this seat. RR had it #11 and would bump it down to 7 or 8 now.

          • Mike1965 March 17, 2017 at 6:46 pm

            Not sure why a ratings change would be in order. Smith would have been OK but IMHO she would not be the strongest General Election candidate. The only election she had ever run in was as second banana to Dayton in 2014. Dems still have a deep bench of proven Pols who have run and won on their own.

            FWIW I think Walz or Nolan would be the strongest GE candidates but not sure someone from outstate can get the nomination.


            • rdelbov March 17, 2017 at 7:47 pm

              Nolan and Walz are ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. They make Hillary look exciting and progressive Ds will not be inspired by these faux moderates. Smith was progressive enough, like Dayton, to excite the progressive wing of MN but does not look too harsh in her views.

              • The Emperor March 17, 2017 at 8:09 pm

                I hope they run. Won’t win a primary, and they’ll open up their seats

                male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
                Rubio Republican

                • Mike1965 March 17, 2017 at 8:34 pm

                  Depends. They could pull a Rubio and if they are not endorsed at the convention they could still run for re-election (Primary filing deadline is after the state convention). My wish is one of them runs and goes to the Primary regardless of the convention results.

                  FWIW the DFL bench is deep in MN-08, they could find someone who would have at least a 50/50 chance to hold the seat. MN-01 not so much. Lot depends on the national mood.


              • Mike1965 March 17, 2017 at 8:27 pm

                Disagree. Nolan or Walz would do 20 points better in rural Minnesota than Clinton did, much more than enough make up for any progressive apathy. Their biggest problem would be getting the nomination but in a general election I would make either of them heavy favorites. Beside Nolan and Walz I would also put Lori Swanson (3 term AG), Rebecca Otto (3 term Auditor), and Chris Coleman (3 term St Paul Mayor) as more formidable GE candidates than Tina Smith.

                BTW Minnesota likes boring. Mark Dayton, Walter Mondale, even according to some here Amy Klobuchar are boring (I disagree on Klobuchar).


          • Tekzilla March 17, 2017 at 9:02 pm

            In no world is Tina Smith so much better than Otto, Swanson, Walz and Nolan that her dropping out bumps the race up 3-4 spots. That statement is beyond head scratching. I don’t even know how one comes to that conclusion.

            Anyways, I think Walz is probably the Democrats best bet electorally, Swanson probably second best. I’d prefer Swanson winning due to wanting to have Walz and Nolan run for re-election, but I think any of the 4 have a decent but small advantage.

            I like Coleman too though actually, just not sure how much traction he garners. Really wish Ryback had run.

            36/M/NY-01 (D)

            • rdelbov March 17, 2017 at 9:48 pm

              IMO Smith was basically running for Dayton’s third term. My favorite D poster from MN is always talking about how popular he is–he has sold on Dayton. Smith IMO even has less baggage then Dayton does–She is not a multi-millionaire bit of a cold fish. She is your grandma.

              Now the seat is completely wide open D primary that does not have a clear favorite. If any Ds here get personally excited by Walz or Nolan you might want to watch a camera showing panda sleeping during the night. That’s is there level of charisma. Otto is divisive while Swanson seems likely to be squeezed out by a Coleman run. Coleman could make a run of it but IMO being so tied to a particular city is a weakness.

              So Smith IMO would have waltzed into the D nod and united the party while now is a free for all. So yes IMO this race is better for the GOP–so it needs to be move downward or upward depending on how you look at it.

              • Mike1965 March 17, 2017 at 10:35 pm

                Could not disagree more.

                Walz is my Congressman and in my admittedly biased opinion he is a perfect fit for the state. teacher, Command Sargent Major, High School football coach. He plays very well here. Nolan also has that every man thing going for him.

                BTW there might not even be a competitive Primary. If it is anything like past years the majority of candidates will abide by the Convention Endorsement and drop out before the Primary. I hate that it works that way but that’s the way it usually works in MN.


  • Manhatlibertarian March 17, 2017 at 4:18 pm

    Budget time crunch is coming up in NY with only 2 weeks before the new state fiscal year starts on April 1. Among the top issues to be decided (includes some non fiscal ones):

    tax policy- Cuomo, State Senate GOP, Assembly Dems all agree on going ahead with middle class income tax cuts scheduled to start in 2018. Assembly Dems and Cuomo want to extend the “temporary” millionaires income tax surcharge but the Senate GOP does not. Assembly Dems want a new income tax surcharge on people with incomes above $5 million. Cuomo and the GOP State Senate are against that. Cuomo wants several hundred million in fees and nuisance taxes and the Assembly Dems are willing to go along with most but the GOP State Senate has a problem with many of them.

    SUNY/CUNY tuition – Cuomo wants free tuition at SUNY/CUNY for students with family income below $125,000. Assembly Dems want the ceiling to be $150,000 for free tuition and allow more part time students to be eligible for the free tuition. State Senate GOP is not that opposed to Cuomo plan but wants steps to help private colleges keep tuition costs down so they don’t lose too many students to CUNY/SUNY if the free tuition plan goes through.

    School aid – Cuomo $1 billion increase, GOP State Senate $1.2 billion increase, Assembly Dems $1.8 million increase. Likely there will be some type of increase so the real battle will be over the formula to distribute the additional funds. GOP suburban areas in particular want a good chunk of the additional state funding to keep high local property tax costs down.

    Raise the age to be prosecuted as an adult for crimes from 16 to 18 – Cuomo and Assembly Dems want this but the State Senate GOP has been noncommital on this. The State Senate GOP “ally”, the State Senate IDC Dems, have really been pushing this item, in part to show the alliance with the GOP can pay off; so they may in the end get what they want although the GOP may want something for passing it.

    • GOPTarHeel March 17, 2017 at 6:39 pm

      I’m probably one of the more fiscally moderate posters here but reading about the Prize Patrol’s approach to New York’s finances makes me want to puke. I know they’re better than the alternative of total Democratic control but this is disgusting.

      R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

      • Manhatlibertarian March 17, 2017 at 9:39 pm

        Yeah well the politics in NY is shifted to the left compared to most states, so the Prize Patrol only looks good compared to the Dem Assembly, as you can see from my above post summarizing key legislative issues and where each legislative body stands (I should add that the Assembly Dems are also on record as favoring a single payer health care system). I consider GOP State Senate Leader Flanagan to be somewhat of a RINO and an ally of Cuomo, and how many GOP State Senates that you know would go along with a $15 minimum wage like in NY? Well let’s see if at least the GOP State Senate holds firm on the tax issues but I wouldn’t hold my breath. But they do love to carve up the “pork pie”.

        • Izengabe March 17, 2017 at 10:06 pm

          New York Senate Republicans are Trumpian populist! They were ahead of the curve. Now the entire national GOP will be transactional just like the New York Senate Republicans! (And this isnt a compliment).

          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • kewgardens March 17, 2017 at 10:12 pm

        Agreed. But you know what else is disgusting?

        The courts of North Carolina deciding to willy-nilly overturn any GOP legislation that the Dems don’t like.

        What is going on down there?!!!

        • GOPTarHeel March 18, 2017 at 11:49 am

          The General Assembly is viewed with horror by our judicial system and the Republican Chief Justice picked an unfavorable three-judge panel to send a signal that the GA needs to stop pushing its limits so much.

          R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

  • Ryan_in_SEPA March 17, 2017 at 8:03 pm

    Preet was investigating Price:

    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Tekzilla March 17, 2017 at 9:03 pm

      Oh boy, thats a pretty big story, I wonder if he had evidence.

      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • Izengabe March 17, 2017 at 9:15 pm

        The Biomet story is complete BS. That stock was bought for him in a discretionary account by a 3rd party manager as part of a normal rebalancing process that was done for all clients in that program. People like Price invest in those kind of programs to avoid conflict of interest by having 3rd parties make the investment decisions for them without their input into the purchases or decision making process.

        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

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