Political Roundup for March 20th, 2017

As you pick yourself up off of the floor and kick aside a mug with a little green beer still at the bottom, here’s a warm serving of electoral news to help with the hangover.

Big Picture

Turnout: It looks like turnout in 2016 was about halfway between 2008 (62.2%) and 2012 (58.8%) at 60.2% of eligible voters. Then again, how would we know? New York City is still counting.

Congress

PA-Sen: Ah, crap. The Libertarians found a Senate candidate for 2018 in Pennsylvania. It’s not like Republicans had anything more than an outside chance at beating Sen. Bob Casey (D) anyway, but now it’ll be even harder.

UT-Sen/UT-03: Former Presidential candidate Egg McMuffin, err, Evan McMullin (I?) is thinking about primarying either Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) or Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) in 2018. He’d likely go down in flames to either incumbent, but he’s free to pick his own poison.

MT-AL: Roll Call points out that GA-06 is the only special House race where the Democrats are playing, and in so doing confirms that national Democrats are doing jack squat in Montana. Musician Rob Quist (D), their nominee there by convention, appears to be on his own.

Governor

MN-Gov: Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (D) has canned her long-expected gubernatorial bid. She was a big fish in a fairly crowded pond as far as Democratic hopefuls for Governor were concerned. The announcement should have some fallout both in front of and behind the scenes as allegiances shift.

MN-Gov Continued: …aaaannndd here it is! In the wake of Smith’s exit, Rep. Tim Walz (D)  has now privately confirmed that he’s running for Governor. Word on Twitter is that he’s also secured the backing of Rep. Collin Peterson (D). If true, that would be significant. Only Rep. Rick Nolan (D), who is also a rumored gubernatorial candidate, would stand in Walz’s way as far as uniting outstate Democrats is concerned. Remember folks, this contest will likely be decided at a convention, so the dynamics are a bit different than nominating contests in other states.

NJ-Gov:  SNL alum and radio host Joe Piscopo has quashed rumors that he’ll be running for Governor of New Jersey as a Republican. However, he still hasn’t ruled out a run as an Independent.

NJ-Gov Continued: In that same Republican primary, Lt. Gov Kim Guadagno and Assmb. Jack Ciattarelli are currently battling to get top placement on primary ballots in various counties. Ciattarelli got the top spot in Mercer County the other day. Guadagno countered by winning in Bergen. The fight continues, though Guadagno is favored.

VA-Gov: The Post got a bit dramatic with their headline on this one, but yes, the Virginia Governor’s race is important. In fact, it’s heating up, at least for the Democrats. Early on, it looked like Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) had the nomination locked up. Now the landscape looks different, with former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) gaining ground. In fact, Perriello was just endorsed by John Podesta. This is his second Clintonista endorsement, which is impressive for someone so long associated with Team Obama.

VA-Gov Continued: In other news about the race that always gets covered more than New Jersey’s because it’s across the river from DC, distillery owner Denver Riggleman (R) has dropped out of the Republican primary. Riggleman had sought to form an antiestablishment coalition of primary voters, but soon found that very few Republicans in Virginia are anti-Ed Gillespie. At least he’s smarter than Prince William County Executive Corey Stewart (R), who has yet to discover this and is therefore still running for the nomination.

State/Local

OK-SD-44: Even Edwin Edwards admits that he couldn’t get out of this one. Oklahoma State Sen. Ralph Shortey (R) was literally found with a live boy in a motel room. Shortey had paid the 17-year-old for sex. Needless to say, a special election for this OKC district will be forthcoming.

PA-HD-197: In this latest chapter of our saga about residency requirements and adorably racist party bosses, yet another improbable thing has happened; a historically black newspaper wrote a puff piece about a Republican candidate. No, really. Click the link, I swear. The Philadelphia Tribune wrote a profile of special election candidate Lucinda Little (R), and it’s downright favorable. I still think she’ll lose to a write-in, but the way things are going, the stars are aligning for the unthinkable.

VA-HD-72: Del. Jimmie Massey (R) is retiring at the last minute. This is significant because his Henrico County district narrowly went for Clinton. It’s more Republican downballot, but could be competitive.

WATN: Former State Sen. Morgan Carroll (D), last seen losing a race for CO-06 to Rep. Mike Coffman (R), has been elected Chairwoman of the Colorado Democratic Party. That’s normal. What’s weird is that both her rhetoric and the article suggest that the state party is in a shambles. I’m not saying it’s breaking records for dominance, but I wouldn’t call a party that holds the governorship, half the legislature, 3/7 House seats, and a Senate seat one that needs rebuilding, either. That’s especially true when you consider the fact that the state has now voted Democratic in the last three presidential elections. What are they smoking? Oh, wait…

International

UK-LibDems: Liberal Democratic Leader Tim Farron is calling on all Tories who have Remain-voting constituencies to defect to his party or resign. He’s threatening to beat at the polls all who don’t stand aside or switch. Given that the Tories just had a poll come out putting them on 43% with a 17-point lead at a snap election, I don’t think he’ll have many takers. Then again, with only nine seats to his party’s name, he doesn’t have much to lose by swinging for the fences.

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102 Comments

  • MosheM March 20, 2017 at 7:15 am

    Wasn’t hard to guess who wrote today’s roundup.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • GerGOP March 20, 2017 at 10:15 am

      Agreed. Within the first half sentence.

      • Son_of_the_South March 20, 2017 at 4:00 pm

        Oh, I though that y’all would just know because it’s Monday.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Greyhound March 20, 2017 at 7:22 am

    The funniest part of that UK story is how Farron seems to be claiming the Richmond Park by-election win as some kind of mandate for his party. “If you don’t resign or defect to our party, we’re going to do the same thing to you that we did to Goldsmith. You know, focus our entire national party on a special election swing seat in the most Pro-Remain part of the UK against an incumbent who resigned to thumb his nose at his own party after pissing off the entire city of London with one of the most brazenly awful mayoral campaigns in history. You better watch your back“.

    Pretty much the only MP who would even consider this is Ken Clarke, and he’s lose in the next election if he tried given how dead the LibDems are in middle England these days. I’m still kind of amazed the guy keeps getting re-nominated, given that he’s the equivalent of Jim Jeffords if he represented Rural Pennsylvania.


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • GOPTarHeel March 20, 2017 at 7:29 am

      I’m pretty sure Clarke is retiring at the next election anyway, and he’s far too loyal of a Tory outside of EU issues to ever defect.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

  • RogueBeaver March 20, 2017 at 8:03 am

    UK: Article 50 will be triggered next Wednesday. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39325561


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • GOPTarHeel March 20, 2017 at 8:13 am

      British outlets are starting to push for/report (you never know which one with the British press) that May wants to call a snap election immediately after triggering Art. 50 in order to give herself a strengthened hand to deal with the EU and Scotland. Rumored date is May 4.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

      • Upstater22 March 20, 2017 at 11:07 am

        New ICM/Guardian poll out

        Con 45% (+1)
        Lab 26% (-2)
        UKIP 10% (-1)
        LD 9% (+1)
        SNP 4% (-)
        Green 4% (-1)

        https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017_guardian_march17_poll2.pd


        R, NY-22

        • Son_of_the_South March 20, 2017 at 12:07 pm

          Holy shit! 45% and up 19 points? I’m almost speechless.


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • Greyhound March 20, 2017 at 2:34 pm

            46% and up 21, actually, if you weight by their turnout model.


            R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

      • GoBigRedState March 20, 2017 at 12:19 pm

        May 4 would coincide with the local elections already scheduled.


        45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants #RIP27

  • Mayor Perk March 20, 2017 at 9:01 am

    It would be lovely if MN-01 and MN-08 become open seats.


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • krazen1211 March 20, 2017 at 9:15 am

      This could be a make or break election in Minnesota here. If we are able to draw maps I think the state could go the way of Wisconsin.

      • rdelbov March 20, 2017 at 10:48 am

        Having a trifecta in MN would be an astounding accomplishment–that would a yuge surprise.

  • Ryan_in_SEPA March 20, 2017 at 9:25 am

    While the Roundup covers how the Liberal Democrats are the embodiment of the word “Tool”, the Labour Party appears to be in the process of reunifying with its unions while other factions of Labour oppose it:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/20/jeremy-corbyn-campaign-group-momentum-accused-union-plot-destroy/


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 20, 2017 at 9:44 am

      I do have to say the Corbynites are actually following the Bolshevik playbook pretty well. If I was to write a narrative description of how a Marxist party could seize total control of a major developed nation, it would largely be everything the Corbynites have done.

      The only thing to do after ensuring permanent Corbynite control of Labour is to somehow work with the Tories to game the electoral rules to wipe out third parties (both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP). And then wait for the Tories to screw up badly somehow (something that may take decades, but which will probably eventually happen) and use parliamentary supremacy to ram their hard-left Marxist agenda through.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA March 20, 2017 at 10:15 am

        I suspect we will see a new version of the SDP to develop.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy March 20, 2017 at 9:53 am

    Hmm, the new leader of Uttar Pradesh, a state with over 200 million people, is an uh, very “interesting” person to say the least.

    BJP notably waged the campaign without naming who their actual CM candidate would be, so it came as a surprise.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/19/for-state-leader-modi-taps-firebrand-politician-who-once-advocated-killing-muslims

    Known as a controversial and fiery orator, he has vowed to cleanse India of other religions and in 2014 suggested that mosques feature Hindu deities.

    “This is the century of Hindutva, not just in India but in the entire world,” he said.

    He once accused Mother Teresa of being part of a conspiracy to Christianize India and likened a well-known Bollywood star, Shah Rukh Khan, to a terrorist. At one rally, Adityanath vowed, “If one Hindu girl marries a Muslim man, then we will take 100 Muslim girls in return.” He went on, “If they [Muslims] kill one Hindu man, then we will kill 100 Muslim men.”

    He was arrested in 2007 and spent 11 days in prison for violating prohibitory orders in what was deemed a “communally sensitive area,” with tensions between the Muslim and Hindu communities. He had 18 criminal cases registered against him, according to one tally during the 2014 parliamentary elections, including attempted murder, criminal intimidation and rioting.

    During rallies for state elections this winter, Adityanath’s supporters often chanted for Hindu-centric rule and demanded that Muslims leave the country. Adityanath also praised President Trump for his first travel ban on citizens from seven Muslim-majority countries and added that similar action is needed in India.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Tekzilla March 20, 2017 at 11:01 am

    GA-06 R poll

    Ossoff 41
    Gray 16
    Handel 16

    GOP combines for 48%

    http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-ossoff-strengthens-lead-gop-candidates-battle-runoff/?utm_medium=email


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • segmentation_fault March 20, 2017 at 11:06 am

      This is the one that had him at 31% and Handel at 25% last month.

      • Tekzilla March 20, 2017 at 11:07 am

        SOTS Ossoff protest had the opposite effect! I kid, I kid.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • Son_of_the_South March 20, 2017 at 4:18 pm

          Lol they saw me and were like ‘I don’t know who this Ossoff guy is, but if this guy is against him I’m for him!’


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • segmentation_fault March 20, 2017 at 11:10 am

    @ChuckGrassley on Twitter

    @POTUS If u don’t hv time to call tell SecyKelly to call me

  • Left Coast Libertarian March 20, 2017 at 12:40 pm

    I still don’t get the Democrats’ argument that the Supreme Court seat was stolen from them. They act like if Garland got a hearing that’d mean he’d be confirmed. He wouldn’t have been and we’d be in the same place. So what’s to complain about?

    • GerGOP March 20, 2017 at 12:46 pm

      Oh, Garland would have been confirmed, allright. If someone like Kagan got confirmed, Garland would have sailed through confirmation.

      • FiveAngels March 20, 2017 at 12:53 pm

        The only Republicans to vote for Kagan who were still in the Senate in 2016 were Graham and Collins and Garland needed four Republican votes. And even those two aren’t crazy enough to give a SCOTUS seat to the Democrats during election year. So even if there was a way to force the Republicans to give Garland a vote, he would’ve been voted down.

        • BostonPatriot March 20, 2017 at 3:17 pm

          Kagan was also very much an upgrade on Stevens from a Republican perspective. I imagine someone like Graham would have been much less willing to put Garland in Scalia’s seat.

          • The Emperor March 20, 2017 at 3:36 pm

            How so? Both seem to be orthodox liberals


            male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
            Rubio Republican

            • BostonPatriot March 20, 2017 at 3:45 pm

              Kagan is a mainstream liberal and an extremely intelligent one–in that “once in a generation” level of talent, politics aside. Stevens was further to the left than Kagan, much more of a “legislate from the bench” type than she has been so far.

              If Kagan is ever the swing vote that means things have gotten quite dire but I would much rather have her anchoring the liberal wing than Stevens or RBG

              • CTIronman March 20, 2017 at 3:50 pm

                My problem with Kagan is she had no track record on a lower court. Paying dues on the bench matters IMO

            • krazen1211 March 20, 2017 at 4:13 pm

              Back in 2009 there some folks on the left who pointed out that Kagan was much smarter than Sotomayor and more likely to convince other justices. Plus the age and diabetes thing.

        • segmentation_fault March 20, 2017 at 4:27 pm

          Kirk + Ayotte. There’s two more. They were crazy enough to disavow the Republican presidential nominee in an election year, so why wouldn’t they have voted for Garland to boost their re-election prospects when they didn’t think there was a chance Hillary would lose anyway.

          • Left Coast Libertarian March 20, 2017 at 4:38 pm

            Because you’re talking about two very different things. Kirk and Ayotte weren’t the only Republican senators to distance themselves from Trump after the “Access Hollywood’ tape came out and many of those who did so weren’t up for re-election. Trump’s misogynistic remarks troubled a lot of people, but that didn’t change whether they were loyal Republicans.

            Confirming Garland wouldn’t have helped their re-election prospects and neither of them came out in favor of Garland when asked. No way either would’ve voted yes.

          • krazen1211 March 20, 2017 at 4:45 pm

            Not the way this works. No Republican would want to be the ‘deciding vote’ on an Obama nominee in year 8. You’d need 5-6 defections.

          • CTIronman March 20, 2017 at 4:54 pm

            Ayotte is more conservative than folks think but apparently not gonzo enough for the splinter types that elected Maggie Hassan

    • MosheM March 20, 2017 at 1:02 pm

      This ^^^


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • Tekzilla March 20, 2017 at 1:29 pm

      You can’t possibly be serious.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • BostonPatriot March 20, 2017 at 3:22 pm

        I actually am. You can absolutely object to the politics of it, but Garland wasn’t going to get confirmed in an election year, nor was any other Obama appointee short perhaps a moderate Republican officeholder who had the explicit endorsement of McConnell and Grassley. Even then, a lot of Democratic votes would have been needed with the Republican base pushing their Senators to resist any Obama nominee to Scalia’s seat until after the election.

        Democrats have acted like Senate resistance to SCOTUS appointees was invented in 2016, but Garland was the 8th in the last 50 years to be rejected in one form or another. I think there’s actually an argument to be made that Garland was treated much better than Robert Bork was and that McConnell spared Garland public agony by declining to put him through what would ultimately have been show hearings. If the man had no chance at confirmation, let his nomination fail in peace instead of dragging him through the mud on national TV for weeks and making his family endure that gauntlet.

      • Left Coast Libertarian March 20, 2017 at 4:35 pm

        I don’t know what you’re referring to here but comments like this one are condescending and don’t provide information to advance the discussion.

        Garland had no chance to get confirmed. There were 54 Republicans and none of them gave the slightest inkling they’d vote yes on the nomination. There were 5 Republican votes for Kagan, but the circumstances were different. Kagan was getting confirmed and it’s not hard to vote yes on something that doesn’t need you to vote yes. Republicans weren’t whipping the vote against Kagan. It’s another thing entirely to be one of the deciding votes. Susan Collins voted with Democrats on a number of issues during the Obama administration but she wasn’t a deciding vote when the rest of her party was in opposition.

        That was in 2010 and the atmosphere has changed. If Democrats had won control of the senate last year they wouldn’t have confirmed any of Trump’s judicial nominees, let alone a Supreme Court justice. Republicans are aware of the environment and wouldn’t hand Barack Obama much of anything.

  • GerGOP March 20, 2017 at 12:47 pm

    Le Figaro says there’s a “secret poll” (fwiw) that shows FN at 34% in the first round: https://francais.rt.com/france/35373-editorialiste-evoque-sondages-secrets-donneraient-marine-le-pen-30-pourcent
    That’s all good and well, but Le Pen has a ceiling well below 50%, so it won’t matter. It’s a crying shame.

    • GOPTarHeel March 20, 2017 at 1:24 pm

      This is all Fillon’s fault.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

      • FiveAngels March 20, 2017 at 1:28 pm

        Usually being a crook is not that big of a deal in French politics. This was a massive drive-by hit on Fillon with the goal of helping Macron.

        • GerGOP March 20, 2017 at 1:31 pm

          Yeah. Like I said: Macron is a hot contender for “luckiest politician of the year”. Imagine a Europe with President Macron and Chancellor Schulz. I will dust off my thoughts of emigrating to the US.

          • GOPTarHeel March 20, 2017 at 1:33 pm

            Schulz seems to be fading a bit though. Isn’t Merkel a little ahead of him in every poll now?


            R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

          • FiveAngels March 20, 2017 at 1:35 pm

            If Bannon is truly a Leninist (in tactical sense) he surely relishes this “heightening of contradictions”

        • GOPTarHeel March 20, 2017 at 1:32 pm

          Well this crook won by promising that he wasn’t a crook and that he’d resign if he was under formal investigation. He was a crook though and didn’t resign. He’s tossing away a gimme election for the Right and Justin Trudeau’s extremely annoying little brother is now going to be President.


          R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

  • HS March 20, 2017 at 12:48 pm

    I understand their argument. A year is a long time for the seat to remain vacant.

    But because they are so dishonest and hypocritical on this and other things, I also understand that the only way to teach them a lesson is to do the same to them. Only then is there a (very small) chance of going back to a less hypocritical and biased time.

  • Mayor Perk March 20, 2017 at 1:09 pm

    Former Mark Udall staffer fires the first torpedo against Gorsuch. Letter sent late night.

    http://www.npr.org/2017/03/20/520743555/former-law-student-gorsuch-told-class-women-manipulate-maternal-leave


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • Mayor Perk March 20, 2017 at 1:11 pm

    NJ-Sen: SCOTUS rejects Bob Menendez’s attempt at dismissal of his federal corruption charges. Criminal trial set to begin Sept. 6th.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/Sen-Robert-Menendez-Supreme-Court-decision.html


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • Manhatlibertarian March 20, 2017 at 1:28 pm

    Well if his trial does start on Sept. 6 that means his trial would be in the middle of his re-election campaign which is not the kind of publicity you want unless he is acquitted. Of course the trial could drag past election day, particularly if there are requests for delays, as there often are. If he is convicted he will of course ask for an appeal, but a conviction will be very damaging. If the trial goes past election day there will still be negative news about him during the campaign. So the GOP might want to fund a serious effort to take this seat.

  • Manhatlibertarian March 20, 2017 at 1:43 pm

    Whoops I’m thinking wrong because the senate election isn’t until 2018. So the question then is does the trial end before the end of this year, so that Christie appoints a replacement. Of course even if he is convicted he doesn’t have to resign from the senate and will likely appeal, so the appointment possibility might not come up. It is possible though the Senate may vote to expel him if he is convicted.

    • CTIronman March 20, 2017 at 1:53 pm

      Plenty of time to slot in Don Norcross on the primary ballot after the verdict is announced

      • Red Oaks March 20, 2017 at 2:35 pm

        Who needs a primary ballot? NJ courts are cool with replacing Senate candidates in October right before the general election.


        MI-03 Castle voter who now says Give Trump a chance

        • CTIronman March 20, 2017 at 3:13 pm

          Yeah but going to court is still inconvenient 🙂

          • StatenIslandTest March 20, 2017 at 3:41 pm

            Todays real wildcard. What if Gov Joe Piscopos first act is to have to appoint a Senator?


            31, Jersey City

  • shamlet March 20, 2017 at 1:54 pm

    Sad blogosphere news: Jon Richards (@SiteROI), editor of the blog Georgiapol.com, has been moved to hospice care. https://www.georgiapol.com/2017/03/20/goodbyes-shorter-others/?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • MosheM March 20, 2017 at 5:46 pm

    Trump couldn’t have picked a better liar.

    https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/843884342376120320

    My only question is how did Trump know that Spicer would be willing to lie on his behalf every day so blatantly? He came directly from the RNC as a normal person.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • TheWizardOf144 March 20, 2017 at 6:04 pm

      He could have picked a much better liar.

      Spicer lies frequently, but poorly.

    • HS March 20, 2017 at 6:37 pm

      I love the “truth watch” coming from the D’s and their media eunuchs. I don’t remember any of that when Obama opened his mouth about keeping your doctor or your plan, not a smidgen of corruption, he didn’t know of Hillary’s private server until the media, a video caused the killings in Benghazi, or the Iran deal will stop nuclear weapons development. And each and every time these were obvious lies.

      • LtNOWIS March 20, 2017 at 10:02 pm

        “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it,” was PolitiFact’s Lie of the year for 2013. They didn’t exactly sweep that under the rug, quite the opposite.


        28, VA-11

        • HS March 20, 2017 at 10:28 pm

          Not until much later. And even then there were constant excuses and explanations.

  • RogueBeaver March 20, 2017 at 6:33 pm

    NYC-Mayor: Ulrich out. https://twitter.com/eric_ulrich/status/843953485196513280


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • shamlet March 20, 2017 at 6:40 pm

      Good. I like Ulrich a lot but this isn’t the race for him. Hopefully he goes for State Senate or LG.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Manhatlibertarian March 20, 2017 at 8:17 pm

        Not surprised. It was an uphill slog for him to run for mayor and real estate developer Massey has a lot more $. That leaves I think only Rev. Michael Faulkner, a Harlem minister and avid Trump supporter, as Massey’s primary opponent. There has been talk that John Catsimitadis, a radio talk show host and billionaire supermarket magnate, might yet enter the GOP primary, but IMO he will not, particularly now that there are no charges being filed against deBlasio for corruption and evading campaign contribution laws.

  • StatenIslandTest March 20, 2017 at 6:40 pm

    Surprisingly bad fiscal news from the states:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/even-as-the-economy-recovers-most-state-finances-are-still-in-the-red-2017-03-20

    Being from NJ I am used to this but in general have state governments gotten too giddy the last few years?


    31, Jersey City

    • Red Oaks March 20, 2017 at 8:45 pm

      Yes, in many cases states spent more than they could have. In particular funding pensions and health care for government workers has gotten more costly.


      MI-03 Castle voter who now says Give Trump a chance

    • Ryan_in_SEPA March 20, 2017 at 9:02 pm

      I am far from surprised by the fiscal disasters most states are. We have record revenues, but expenditures growing out of control as well. Thank you babyboomers!


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

      • Manhatlibertarian March 20, 2017 at 9:36 pm

        Pensions are a problem in a number of states, Illinois in particular comes to mind. Of course Puerto Rico will have exhausted its pension reserves by next year and will have to pay benefits on a pay as you go basis, using contributions from new employees to pay retirees. The problem with kicking the can down the road on pensions is that sooner or later you get to the end of the road.

        Medicaid is also quite costly and it doesn’t look like the Fed Gov’t will continue to pay a 90% match indefinitely for those 31 states that have expanded Medicaid under Obamacare. Sooner or later it is likely states will have to pick up a larger share of the expanded Medicaid costs and it was naive for states to think this wouldn’t happen. Managing future Medicaid costs will be another big state fiscal headache.

        • californianintexas March 20, 2017 at 11:09 pm

          And of course California’s pension issues are legendary.

          I haven’t heard much on Utah, which has had surpluses for many years.


          34, Female, Libertarian-leaning Independent, UT-02 (hometown CA-31)

    • GOPTarHeel March 20, 2017 at 9:09 pm

      North Carolina will likely have a 650 million surplus. Good thing we fired the guy who built that.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

  • MosheM March 20, 2017 at 6:57 pm

    Mike Lee healthcare

    https://twitter.com/danmericaCNN/status/843957010051862530


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Manhatlibertarian March 20, 2017 at 9:18 pm

      Speaker Ryan announced that the Obamacare replacement bill will be revised to increase the tax credit for older Americans (50-64) who purchase health insurance and also allow states to impose a work requirement for able bodied Medicaid recipients. However fiscal hardline Congressman Mark Meadows of NC claims there are about 40 GOP members who will oppose the Obamacare replacement bill, more than enough to kill it, so we will see. Even if it gets out of the House, I don’t see where there are currently the minimum 50 GOP senators needed to vote for the legislation. I think they are going to need more revisions.

      http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-obamacare-idUSKBN16Q0OR

  • MosheM March 20, 2017 at 6:58 pm

    Ivanka is getting an office in the West Wing, security clearance, a gov’t communications device. But no official WH job. https://t.co/0Vug93K3q6 https://t.co/tMlmoNhzY4


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • w920us March 20, 2017 at 7:32 pm

    Regarding the fun times going on in the 197th, seeing that pic of Little embracing the No Soda Tax campaign, made me realize that might just help her sneak past any strong write-in campaign. The soda tax is definitely on many people’s minds here in Philly.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • The Emperor March 20, 2017 at 8:01 pm

    Thapar for the 6th Circuit

    https://twitter.com/RylandKY/status/843961438477701120


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

    • Manhatlibertarian March 20, 2017 at 9:40 pm

      About time they started getting moving on the appeals court positions. Right now you have a federal court system where most judges are liberal Dems, and approach cases from that perspective.

      • rdelbov March 20, 2017 at 10:20 pm

        1st of many!!!

        • The Emperor March 20, 2017 at 11:59 pm

          The Senators from Texas have already reccommended three names for the 5th Circuit vacancies.


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

          • FiveAngels March 21, 2017 at 4:04 am

            Btw those three are Texas Supreme Court Justice Don Willett, U.S. District Court Judge Reed O’Connor and Dallas litigator James Ho. Ho was never a judge but he’s extremely well-connected in conservative legal circles (Thomas clerk, Cornyn’s chief counsel, Texas solicitor general). He’s also very young (early 40s I think), Asian and huge SCOTUS prospect if he gets on 5th Circuit. My guess is Trump will nominate Willet and Ho now, and O’Connor when/if Texas gets another 5th Circuit vacancy.

  • Greyhound March 20, 2017 at 8:44 pm

    Sturgeon has started walking back her plan for Scotland to join the EU after polling shows the Scots decidedly souring on EU membership. This has put her in a bit of a bind, given that Scotland’s strong Remain vote in the Brexit referendum was pretty much the whole reason why she was pushing for a 2nd Independence vote in the first place. This has also coincided with a new poll showing record-support for Scotland staying in the UK, at 57%

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/15/nicola-sturgeon-abandons-bid-remain-eu-poll-shows-record-level/

    In other words, those polls showing the Tories getting close to 30% in Scotland are probably true.


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • GOPTarHeel March 20, 2017 at 9:31 pm

      The Tories are bearing Labour among the Scottish working class. Now that’s an odd sentence to write.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

      • Son_of_the_South March 20, 2017 at 10:06 pm

        Generations of Scottish trade unionists are attempting to slap you across space and time for even suggesting that such a thing might be true.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA March 20, 2017 at 10:28 pm

          Same like those generations of UMWA workers are turning in their graves in western Pennsylvania.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

          • StatenIslandTest March 20, 2017 at 11:36 pm

            The Episcopalian cemeteries in Greenwich might be saying the same in reverse!


            31, Jersey City

  • Greyhound March 20, 2017 at 10:04 pm

    Turns out our neighbor to the North is learning to appreciate Trumpian immigration policies. A new poll shows that Canadians are not happy about the surge in illegal immigration they have been getting since Trump took office.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-immigration-poll-exclusive-idUSKBN16R0SK


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • MosheM March 20, 2017 at 10:16 pm

      If they start voting for the liberal party en masse, it will become popular among their voters. Just like here. It’s only a partisan issue because one party benefits from it.


      28, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM March 20, 2017 at 11:27 pm

    Maryland Dems kill redistricting reform.

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-hogan-redistricting-killed-20170320-story.html


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • The Emperor March 21, 2017 at 12:00 am

      If/when Hogan wins another term, he can veto any map and force the courts to draw one. That’s our best bet for the future


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • roguemapper March 21, 2017 at 12:11 am

        The Democrats have a veto-proof majority. Is there a reason why they wouldn’t override Hogan’s veto?


        Dem NC-11

        • Greyhound March 21, 2017 at 12:23 am

          Is the threshold less than 2/3rds in Maryland? We have 35% of the seats in the House of Delegates. Admittedly that’s probably a tenuous 35% that could easily flip in 2018/2020.


          R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

          • roguemapper March 21, 2017 at 12:28 am

            Maryland is 3/5 for override.


            Dem NC-11

        • shamlet March 21, 2017 at 8:50 am

          Remember that Maryland does redistricting backwards. The Gov makes the map unilaterally and the legislature has to accept it or agree on something else within a very short period of time. It’s very, very unlikely in practice that they’ll be able to herd the cats well enough to reject Hogan’s map so long as it isn’t a brutal GOP gerrymander. The 2002 map drew out the sitting Speaker for god’s sake!


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

          • Greyhound March 21, 2017 at 8:57 am

            You sure? I imagine the Progressives would go absolutely apeshit about how Democrats caved to Hogan’s “Illegal Gerrymandering” if they accept anything worse than the current map.


            R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

            • shamlet March 21, 2017 at 9:00 am

              But again, they don’t just have to reject it, they have to come up with something better. Coming up with something that pleases a majority of the legislature better than Hogan’s map does on a very compressed time frame (I think it’s 30 days) is going to be very, very tough given that there’s plenty of different competing factions at play – incumbents, minority groups, partisans, geographic constituencies. Unless Hogan is really stupid about it his map will be designed to peel off enough to stop any other map from gaining traction.


              R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

              • roguemapper March 21, 2017 at 12:12 pm

                Your premise that the legislature will wait to see Hogan’s maps before they come up with their own strikes me as very faulty. There’s nothing that requires the legislature to wait. It’s not as if redistricting will come as a surprise. If they want to have their own maps ready to go I see no reason why they won’t take however much time they need to hash it out beforehand.


                Dem NC-11

                • shamlet March 21, 2017 at 12:17 pm

                  But the key is that the legislature’s map needs to be better than Hogan’s for all interest groups. If the legislature hashes out their map before-hand Hogan has the opportunity to pick and choose who to try and peel off with particular goodies. It’s easy to come up with theoretical scenarios but in practice (especially given that MD’s legislative leaders aren’t powerful in relative terms) the Governor has held all the cards.


                  R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

              • roguemapper March 21, 2017 at 12:18 pm

                PS. The 2002 legislative map that drew out Speaker Taylor was a court map. The Speaker was on Glendening’s redistricting commission! The MD Court of Appeals struck down their maps.


                Dem NC-11

          • w920us March 21, 2017 at 8:59 am

            Curious… What would a brutal GOP gerrymander in Maryland even look like? It’s like a fantasy! LOL

            The GOP has literally only held the trifecta in Maryland one (or maybe two) sessions.


            R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
            #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

            • shamlet March 21, 2017 at 9:03 am

              You could get a fairly secure 4-4 congressional map pretty easily.


              R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

            • Greyhound March 21, 2017 at 9:05 am

              You can draw a map with 5 McCain seats (albeit barely) if you get real ugly. Maryland Democrats tend to be heavily concentrated in 3 counties in a way that makes them very easy to pack. For the same reason a party-neutral map usually winds up something like 4-2-2. We held 4 seats as recently as 2000, though one of those was Connie Morella’s Montgomery-based seat.


              R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

              • Jon March 21, 2017 at 6:58 pm

                Chances are the 5 McCain MD map would also be a major dummymander.


                45, M, MO-02

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