RRH Elections/Decision Desk HQ GA-6 Poll: Ossoff (D) leads Handel (R) 39-15

Ossoff leads at 39%; Handel leads crowded race for 2nd spot; Republicans combined narrowly top 50%

Five days ahead of the closely-watched first round of the special election to fill the US House seat formerly held by HHS Secretary Tom Price (R), a new poll from RRH Elections shows Democratic front-runner Jon Ossoff well ahead of the field, leading his nearest challenger 39-15. Overall Ossoff is well short of the 50% mark needed to win outright, though he hits that mark among those who have already voted. Four Republicans, former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R), Johns Creek councilman Bob Gray (R), and former State Sens. Dan Moody (R) and Judson Hill (R), are all bunched tightly together in a race to advance with Ossoff, with Handel narrowly leading Gray for the second runoff spot 15-12. The six most prominent Republicans combined lead the two most prominent Democrats combined by a margin of 51-43. The survey of 321 Likely Voters was conducted from April 5-10, 2017 using both an IVR automated phone survey (220 voters) and an online survey (101 voters) and has a margin of error of 5%. All survey design and data analysis is the responsibility of RRH Elections; funding was provided by the generous contributions of our readers and co-sponsorship by Decision Desk HQ. For comments or questions on the poll, please email us at rrhelections@gmail.com

Toplines:

Candidate Peformance
Jon Ossoff (D) 39%
Karen Handel (R) 15%
Bob Gray (R) 12%
Dan Moody (R) 11%
Judson Hill (R) 10%
Ron Slotin (D) 4%
David Abroms (R) 3%
Bruce Levell (R) 0%
Undecided 6%

President Trump’s approval rating in the sample is 46%, with 46% disapproving. When asked about which candidate they supported in last year’s presidential election, respondents chose Trump over Clinton 46%-44%, with 4% saying they voted for Gary Johnson and 6% unable to remember their choice.

Demographic Data Percentage
IVR Polls 75%*
Online Polls 25%*
Already Voted 28%
Likely to Vote 72%
18-44 27%
45-64 43%
65+ 30%
Male 48%
Female 52%
White 81%
Black 13%
Other race 6%
Cobb County (27% of district) 36%
DeKalb County (25% of district) 24%
Fulton County (47% of district) 39%

*These numbers differ from the raw number of responses due to weighting.

Crosstabs:

Voting Status Already Voted (28%) Yet to Vote (72%)
Jon Ossoff (D) 50% 35%
Karen Handel (R) 13% 16%
Bob Gray (R) 6% 15%
Dan Moody (R) 13% 10%
Judson Hill (R) 7% 11%
Ron Slotin (D) 6% 3%
David Abroms (R) 3% 3%
Undecided 4%* 7%

*This paradoxical response is best interpreted as support for minor candidates that were not tested.

 

Trump Approval Approve (46%) Disapprove (46%)
Jon Ossoff (D) 2% 86%
Karen Handel (R) 24% 2%
Bob Gray (R) 23% 3%
Dan Moody (R) 19% 1%
Judson Hill (R) 21% 4%
Ron Slotin (D) 4% 1%
David Abroms (R) 5% 1%
Undecided 2% 2%

 

Geography Cobb (53.1/41.9 Trump) DeKalb (57.0/38.0 HRC) Fulton (48.4/46.9 Trump)
Jon Ossoff (D) 34% 47% 39%
Karen Handel (R) 13% 10% 19%
Bob Gray (R) 11% 12% 14%
Dan Moody (R) 8% 11% 14%
Judson Hill (R) 21% 6% 2%
Ron Slotin (D) 1% 5% 6%
David Abroms (R) 4% 0% 4%
Undecided 9% 9% 2%

 

Age 18-44 (27%) 45-64 (43%) 65+ (30%)
Jon Ossoff (D) 33% 50% 30%
Karen Handel (R) 12% 12% 20%
Bob Gray (R) 22% 8% 10%
Dan Moody (R) 6% 10% 16%
Judson Hill (R) 11% 8% 12%
Ron Slotin (D) 10% 2% 0%
David Abroms (R) 0% 4% 5%
Undecided 7% 5% 7%

 

Gender Male (48%) Female (52%)
Jon Ossoff (D) 36% 45%
Karen Handel (R) 13% 14%
Bob Gray (R) 13% 12%
Dan Moody (R) 14% 8%
Judson Hill (R) 14% 7%
Ron Slotin (D) 2% 5%
David Abroms (R) 5% 2%
Undecided 4% 7%

Notes: Racial crosstabs are uninformative. Bruce Levell did not receive support across any breakdown.

Methodology:

The survey was conducted according to the script that follows in the appendix; to make the survey length manageable, only the 8 highest-profile candidates as determined by RRH Elections were tested. Data was collected through two methodologies, with the data then synthesized and weighted by RRH Elections: 220 Interactive Voice Response calls were placed to a list of voters who had participated in two of the last three general elections by PMI inc. of Marianna, Fla., while 101 online surveys were collected using the Google Surveys platform. Because of different weighting, IVR surveys make up 75% of the survey data with online polls comprising 25%. All respondents were asked their likelihood to vote, and those that were unlikely to vote were not included in the survey. Demographic data was collected in different ways between the samples: IVR demographics were asked of the respondents, while online demographics were inferred by Google’s algorithm. Geography was determined by the voter file for IVR responses and by directly asking online respondents for their county. Survey data was weighted by RRH Elections for age and race only. Random deletion was not used as a method of weighting.

Discussion:

With five days until Election Day, the closely-watched race in Georgia’s 6th congressional district looks likely to head to a runoff. Jon Ossoff (D) leads the field by a large margin, but looks likely to fall well short of the 50% needed to flip the formerly Republican-held district outright. Ossoff is at the 50% mark in the early vote, but from the poll the election-day turnout is likely to skew significantly more Republican. The race has become a foci of national attention and a test of Trump’s popularity; the district is incredibly polarized on that front, with Trump’s approval and disapproval exactly evenly matched. Ossoff receives nearly-unanimous support from those who disapprove of President Trump’s performance. If both Ossoff and his Republican rival double-down on a base strategy and make the race a referendum on Trump, the second round will likely be very close, but if one is more successful at garnering even a small amount of crossover support, that candidate could find him or herself with a significant advantage. The race to join Ossoff in the runoff is a crowded one, with four Republicans having a reasonable chance to move on. Former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) leads by a narrow margin, but all of her three main rivals, Johns Creek councilman Bob Gray (R) and former State Senators Dan Moody (R) and Judson Hill (R) are within the margin of error for second place. Hill is bolstered by strong support and high turnout in his native Cobb, while Handel’s strongest area is her native Fulton County, where she previously served as county board chair. Owing to the district’s Republican heritage, the six Republicans tested post a small 51-43 lead on the two Democrats tested, but it is unclear if that advantage will hold up in a runoff when a large percentage of Republicans will not have voted for the nominee. Overall it seems as though the race will be headed to a June 20 runoff, and if so it seems a safe bet that the next two months will see a hard-fought and nationally-watched race.

About RRH Elections and This Poll:

RRH Elections is run by a team of 8 unpaid hobbyists, all with no connection to any candidate or group active in this race. Funding for this poll comes entirely from the donations of our readers and our co-sponsorship from Decision Desk HQ. If you enjoyed this poll, please donate so that we may bring you more surveys like it in the future. To contact us for comments or questions about this poll, the best way is by email at: rrhelections@gmail.com

Appendix: Poll Script

There is a special congressional election coming up on Tuesday, April 18th. Are you likely to vote in it?

Press 1 if you have already voted

Press 2 if you have not voted yet but are likely to do so

Press 3 if you are unlikely to vote

If the candidates for Congress on April 18th were Republicans David Abroms, Bob Gray, Karen Handel, Judson Hill, Bruce Levell, and Dan Moody, and Democrats Jon Ossoff and Ron Slotin, who would you be most likely to vote for?
Press 1 if you are most likely to vote for Republican David Abroms
Press 2 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Bob Gray
Press 3 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Karen Handel
Press 4 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Judson Hill
Press 5 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Bruce Levell
Press 6 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Dan Moody
Press 7 if you are most likely to vote for Democrat Jon Ossoff
Press 8 if you are most likely to vote for Democrat Ron Slotin
Press 9 if you are totally undecided

Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s performance as President?
Press 1 if you approve of Donald Trump’s performance
Press 2 if you disapprove of Donald Trump’s performance
Press 3 if you have no opinion of Donald Trump’s performance

As best you can remember, which of the following candidates did you support in the 2016 presidential election?
Press 1 if you supported Republican Donald Trump
Press 2 if you supported Democrat Hillary Clinton

Press 3 if you supported Libertarian Gary Johnson

Press 4 if you supported Green Jill Stein

Press 5 if you do not remember who you supported

For statistical purposes, please let us know your age:

Press 1 if you are 18 to 44

Press 2 if you are 45 to 64

Press 3 if you are 65 plus

For statistical purposes, please let us know your gender:

Press 1 if you are male

Press 2 if you are female

For statistical purposes, please let us know with what race you most identify:

Press 1 if you most identify as White

Press 2 if you most identify as Black

Press 3 if you most identify as Hispanic

Press 4 if you most identify as Asian

Press 5 if you most identify as some other race

 

Previous Post Next Post

103 Comments

  • Tekzilla April 13, 2017 at 9:33 am

    Ah never mind here it is lol. Terrible poll for Ossoff to be under 40%, I had a feeling thats what it was.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • cer April 13, 2017 at 9:37 am

      TEK, you are a mind reader. 🙂

      Good job for calling that one.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • krazen1211 April 13, 2017 at 9:52 am

        Ddhq really hyped this. But this result is close to other polls.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 13, 2017 at 10:12 am

      If it’s any consolation, the two Democrats combine to around 43%, which is where most polls have put Ossoff.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • CTIronman April 13, 2017 at 1:53 pm

      Hartford Courant reports CT Governor Dan Malloy (D-unpopular) will announce at 2pm he will not be seeking a 3rd term

  • cer April 13, 2017 at 9:41 am

    Great looking poll by the way. Thank you for all that were involved with it.


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • MosheM April 13, 2017 at 9:42 am

    Thanks! Great job!


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • Upstater22 April 13, 2017 at 9:44 am

    Great job.
    So…start collecting for the runoff? 🙂


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • Izengabe April 13, 2017 at 9:48 am

      Great idea!!! If you like what we are doing please consider donating to us at:
      http://www.paypal.me/RedRacingHorses
      So we can poll the runoff!!!!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • dforston April 13, 2017 at 9:50 am

        I had to look it up…. the run off is June 20th (so others don’t have to look it up)

  • cer April 13, 2017 at 9:49 am

    If I’m Karen Handel, I would be getting a tad nervous.


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • GerGOP April 13, 2017 at 9:57 am

      I have a hunch that she wont make the runoff.

  • JPF April 13, 2017 at 9:50 am

    Nice poll. I’m sure sample size is small, but it’s interesting that supporters of Slotin (the other Democrat) support Trump on a 4-1 basis. Is Slotin some sort of DINO? That doesn’t bode well for Ossoff picking up Slotin’s votes in the runoff.


    VA-08 - Reluctant Trump Supporter

    • shamlet April 13, 2017 at 10:29 am

      No, the numbers are so tiny that you can’t draw any conclusions on what percentage of Slotin’s 4% supported Trump. The margin of error on that statistic is probably >20%.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • revdanerickson April 13, 2017 at 9:56 am

    So, what is with the 6% of people who don’t remember whom they voted for in November?!? Though GA-6 may be full of folks with above average education and intelligence, many of them have very poor recall! 🙂

  • GerGOP April 13, 2017 at 9:58 am

    Awesome stuff! Thanks!
    Loved the random deletion there. 😉

  • cer April 13, 2017 at 9:58 am

    Karen Handel (R) 15%, Bob Gray (R) 12%, Dan Moody (R) 11%, Judson Hill (R) 10%

    These numbers are crazy close. Truly is a tossup for the #2 spot.


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Upstater22 April 13, 2017 at 10:05 am

      As with any election, who turns out matters. Her base is in Fulton where voters, according to these numbers, seem to lag behind the baseline population. If more of Fulton comes out and less Cobb, she should be good.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • GerGOP April 13, 2017 at 10:06 am

      Ich think that Handel is our strongest candidate, but im biased.

  • Izengabe April 13, 2017 at 10:06 am

    I think the key take away is Democrats would have been better off with 2 equally strong Democrat candidates instead of putting all their eggs into Ossoff’s basket. With GOP field so divided Dems could have easily had 2 Democrats make it to the runoff with 20% of the vote a piece.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • GerGOP April 13, 2017 at 10:09 am

      Scary thought that were being saved by dems imcompetence in an district like this.

    • cer April 13, 2017 at 10:13 am

      I agree, they really needed to take the GOP down now. GOP chances greatly improve after the primary.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Upstater22 April 13, 2017 at 10:18 am

      Oh wow, I wasn’t even thinking of that. Good point. It’s not like Slotin is a bad candidate; he’s a state Senator for crying out loud. But he’s not a young, loud mouthed, temper tantrum throwing Bold Progressive, so he is persona non grata amongst the kos kiddie krowd.

      But yeah, with 4 prominent Republicans running and splitting the field, Democrats could’ve finished Top Two if they played their cards right. Another unforced error from the Democratic Party.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • segmentation_fault April 13, 2017 at 10:34 am

        Slotin *was a state Senator, for one term, over 20 years go.


        En Marche!

        • shamlet April 13, 2017 at 10:36 am

          Two terms.


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Greyhound April 13, 2017 at 10:38 am

          From this area? What kind of DINO was he back then to get elected?


          R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

          • SwingStateRepublican April 13, 2017 at 12:14 pm

            From an Atlanta proper based district, was succeeded by Vincent Fort. Slotin claims to be progressive also, but on website says he wants to be bipartisan as well. He’s not running as a DINO, just more pragmatic.


            21, NC-4, Ex-R

          • segmentation_fault April 13, 2017 at 1:52 pm

            For the record Democrats used to win legislative seats even in the Sandy Springs area (not sure about Alpharetta) when they were in the majority. Not unusual.


            En Marche!

  • andyroo312 April 13, 2017 at 10:25 am

    Ossoff under 50 percent in DeKalb is horrendous.


    MA-7

  • GerGOP April 13, 2017 at 10:39 am

    Amy chance that dems bombing in ks04 might inflate their turnout?

    • Republican Michigander April 13, 2017 at 10:48 am

      “”Amy chance that dems bombing in ks04 might inflate their turnout?”””

      No. Kansas is 1000 miles away. Those who are following the Kansas races there are going to vote in every election. Those are the die-hards. Most in metro-Atlanta don’t know, nor care what goes on in Kansas.

      My worry isn’t the hard core democrats turning out (they will) as much as it is Republicans not turning out.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Tekzilla April 13, 2017 at 2:19 pm

      I’m not sure anyone considers what happened in Kansas to be bombing…


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • Republican Michigander April 13, 2017 at 10:44 am

    Good work. The numbers line up about to where I see this right now. This poll still scares me with those early voting numbers. If we get a dismal election day turnout (which I think is how Ossoff can win), this could be over. Low turnout is what kicked my arse last August, so that’s obviously in the back of my mind here.

    Hopefully we get at least a 40% turnout. If it’s under 33%, I’m going to be quite concerned.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • cer April 13, 2017 at 10:54 am

      No one way in hell that Ossoff is going to get over 50% now. The best that he will do is in the mid 40’s.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • krazen1211 April 13, 2017 at 11:18 am

      These are high turnout college Rs. It was the highest turnout district of maybe 2nd in the Presidential primary.

      It’s possible that Rs vote for ossoff, but I think it’s less likely to have folks sit out.

  • GerGOP April 13, 2017 at 11:40 am

    The DailyKos comments section ist a delight.

    • cer April 13, 2017 at 11:46 am

      Let me guess, a few over there aren’t as happy as they were a few days ago!? 🙂


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Upstater22 April 13, 2017 at 12:01 pm

        There are certainly some who are tamping down expectations. They are now talking about moral victories if they get within 8%. I’m sorry, but if you go all-in and spend $10 million plus on a congressional race only to lose, there are no moral victories.


        Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 13, 2017 at 12:05 pm

          It was always a mistake. Anything short of a win is disastrous for Democrats because Trump can crow that the GOP candidate did much better than Trump even if they did significantly worse than Price. And they spent $10M!


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • pstchrisp April 13, 2017 at 12:11 pm

            I’d wager he won’t point out that the GOP candidate did better than him. In any race. Ever.

            • TexasR April 13, 2017 at 12:12 pm

              Yeah, we all know that his yuge ego prevents this.


              Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
              Be careful what you wish for

              • Ryan_in_SEPA April 13, 2017 at 12:24 pm

                Well if he spins it as “My Agenda is Winning Yuge Numbers of Converts” I could see him doing it.


                31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • GOPTarHeel April 13, 2017 at 11:48 am

      Post some choice insults directed at RRH if you don’t mind.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • GerGOP April 13, 2017 at 11:55 am

        Theyre Relativlagen civil all things considered. Mama are dismissing ist bc were a “very republican Site” and others are saying that RRH record ist “above average” at best

        • cer April 13, 2017 at 11:57 am

          In other words, they are pissed off at a site that actually has a fairly decent polling track record compared to more lefty ones like the PPP.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

      • BostonPatriot April 13, 2017 at 12:30 pm

        C’mon guys. We have our own poll to digest here. No reason to start a whole conversation on what commenters on another site are saying today.

      • segmentation_fault April 13, 2017 at 1:51 pm

        You could go look yourself, but I didn’t see any other than “RRH is a very Republican site” and “what is RRH?” and “who is Shamlet?”


        En Marche!

    • Greyhound April 13, 2017 at 12:04 pm

      Really? The DKE page seemed pretty level-headed to me, and I can’t find our poll on their main one.


      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

  • The Emperor April 13, 2017 at 12:11 pm

    I find it interesting that Bob Grey leads the other GOP contenders among young voters. He’s been the most Trumpy of the candidates and prolific on social media


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

    • shamlet April 13, 2017 at 12:19 pm

      Huge error bars on that number though. I’m kinda suspicious there may be something slightly funky about our younger voter sample as it contains more of the less reliable online responses – not enough that I think it materially affects the topline, but I’d take those under-45 Xtabs with a grain of salt.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Upstater22 April 13, 2017 at 12:17 pm

    Rosie O’Donnell and Kyra Sedgwick donated to the Ossoff campaign over the weekend.
    http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00630426/1156209/f65


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • The Emperor April 13, 2017 at 12:24 pm

      Yeah, they’re going to play well in Georgia.


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

    • Ryan_in_SEPA April 13, 2017 at 12:26 pm

      Someone should tell Trump about the Rosie donations. We might get 3 days of tweeting how she is a loser and Ossoff is a loser for taking her money.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

      • Upstater22 April 13, 2017 at 12:32 pm

        Also a cheap bastard. Only gave a thousand bucks when Kyra Sedgwick gave the full $2700!


        Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

        • Ryan_in_SEPA April 13, 2017 at 12:59 pm

          Well Trump would take credit for her financial condition. She is just a terrible person.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 13, 2017 at 12:25 pm

    Interesting to see that Trump approval is pretty much identical to his margin of victory in the actual presidential election. And that Republicans seem to be doing better among Trump disapprovers than vice versa, though that makes sense since some Trump disapprovers probably think he’s too centrist for their likes (House Freedom Caucus types). You saw a similar phenomenon with Obama and Obamacare.

    A lot of the approval spike Obama had in 2012 was people who disapproved of Obama from the left rallying to his cause when the other guy was Mitt Romney. Similar story for why Obamacare’s approval has gone up so much.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • pstchrisp April 13, 2017 at 12:45 pm

      Maybe a tiny number of disapprovers from the right, but you don’t go from Romney +23 to Trump +1 because you are too centrist.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 13, 2017 at 1:08 pm

        I didn’t mean like that, but rather to mean why the Republicans are leading 51-43 in a Trump 46-46 district.

        I really do think at current Trump approvals, not much changes in 2018. Which is unfortunate because we have a big chance to gain.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • Republican Michigander April 13, 2017 at 3:07 pm

        The 24pt swing happens for up to three reasons. Both Romney and Trump were centrists.

        1. Demographic change. – My fear in Georgia overall and especially that district
        2. Uniquely good candidate for area. (not the case here)
        3. Uniquely bad candidate for area. (Trump in Atlanta suburbs which was Rubio country)

        Interestingly, I mentioned Wyandotte often for Trump’s win in Michigan. It went from Obama +23 to Trump+1. Burton next to Flint went from Obama +26 to Trump +1. Both are white working cities around 25-30K people and heavily union.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • w920us April 13, 2017 at 1:51 pm

    Awesome poll.

    Just sent in another $20.17 for the next poll.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • Izengabe April 13, 2017 at 1:55 pm

      Thanks! But actually we are still a little short on paying for this one LOL so your donation REALLY helps!!!!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Manhatlibertarian April 13, 2017 at 3:07 pm

    Hey you guys did such a great job I sent you another $40. I think the poll shows that if Repub voters turn out on primary day in reasonable numbers Ossoff will not get above 50%, which has been a GOP worry item. By the way Prof McDonald reports that early voting/absentee ballots have surged to 39,419 as of 4/12 and he states that GOP ballots are increasing. It is hard to figure out percentages from the bar graph he uses, but it looks like GOP, Dem and No Party ballots are close now, although Dem ballots are still first. Keep in mind though that even if Ossoff doesn’t get above 50% Tuesday, this will still be a close race and Dems will pour everything into it (I mean if even Rosie O’Donnell was willing to part with $1000 who knows what other Dems will contribute).

    But I have one question about the poll. How is it GOP candidate Abroms gets only 3% after being endorsed by the “great McMuffin”. How can that be? Doesn’t anyone care about McMuffin anymore?

    http://www.electproject.org/

    • dforston April 13, 2017 at 3:08 pm

      Breakdown is this…
      D 44
      R 40
      https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/852327832185430016

      • Manhatlibertarian April 13, 2017 at 3:58 pm

        Thanks. And most interesting for just last day is 52R-32D party ballots according to Cohn. That is not good news for Ossoff if that continues if he wants to get above 50% Tuesday.

    • The Emperor April 13, 2017 at 3:19 pm

      It’s been speculated, but I think that the coalescing of Dems around Ossoff and the hodgepodge of GOP candidates has had an effect. Democrats can cast an easy vote while Republicans were waiting till the last minute to decide on their many choices


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

  • dforston April 13, 2017 at 3:13 pm

    @Opinion_Savvy – “We’re doing one last #GA06 poll for release tomorrow – looks like there’s been some movement #gapol”

    • Upstater22 April 13, 2017 at 3:18 pm

      Opinion Savvy poll from 3 weeks ago was:

      Ossoff 40%
      Handel 20%
      Gray 10%
      Hill 10%
      Moody 8%

      If they’re seeing movement, I’m guessing it’s a clustering of the Republican candidates. Handel dropping back closer to the rest of the field.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • The Emperor April 13, 2017 at 3:20 pm

        Bob Gray has had tons of mentions on social media. Most of the TrumpTrain are backing him


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

        • Izengabe April 13, 2017 at 3:34 pm

          The combining of forces between the Trump Train and the Club for Growth is (for lack of a better way of putting it without offending anyone) an interesting development.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • Republican Michigander April 13, 2017 at 3:51 pm

            Not that shocking really. Both Trumpers and Club for Growth people have a common enemy – mainstream DC and its failures. .


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

            • Izengabe April 13, 2017 at 3:55 pm

              CfG are fiscal conservatives which doesnt fit into Trump’s populism.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

              • The Emperor April 13, 2017 at 3:56 pm

                Trump’s moves against the federal bureaucracy must be popular among the CfG types


                male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
                Rubio Republican

                • Izengabe April 13, 2017 at 4:02 pm

                  Handel was always the fiscal conservative tea party candidate in her 2 previous statewide runs. If this was 2010 or 2014 I think there is no way she wouldnt have gotten the CfG endorsement. I think they are purposely trying to get on the TrumpTrain with Gray.


                  Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                • TexasR April 13, 2017 at 4:02 pm

                  Nah, they’re only warming to him now that he’s signaling that he might stop listening to Bannon and start listening to Kushner.


                  Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                  Be careful what you wish for

              • Republican Michigander April 13, 2017 at 4:15 pm

                It’s about their common enemy losing more than anything else. “Drain the swamp”


                MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • prsteve11 April 13, 2017 at 5:57 pm

      Pollsters just love those cliffhanger posts, don’t they?


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • Manhatlibertarian April 13, 2017 at 4:13 pm

    Politico has an article that points out that in Kansas, Dem Thompson supported the right to bear arms but basically ran as a Bernie Sanders type populist. His informal polling showed that Trump still retained majority support in the district, so he concentrated his fire on Gov Brownback and tried to tie Estes to him. He in fact credited Trump, with his last minute robocalls for Estes, for dragging him across the finish line.

    In Ga on the other hand Gov Deal has 63% approval in a recent poll, so no point running against the Gov in Ga, and Ossoff has run a “buttoned down” campaign trying to appear moderate enough to attract affluent suburban voters who don’t like Trump. He talks about cutting wasteful spending and focusing on job creation and economic growth (although I suspect he will vote a pretty liberal line if elected). So Ossoff is running on more of an anti-Trump platform than Thompson.

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/james-thompson-ron-estes-kansas-election-215017

    • SwingStateRepublican April 13, 2017 at 4:44 pm

      Ossoff seems to be running a campaign similar to Gottheimer, but I don’t think it will work because Handel isn’t Garrett. IMO Bob Gray is most likely to lose in general election but is still not as polarizing as Garrett.


      21, NC-4, Ex-R

    • segmentation_fault April 14, 2017 at 3:47 pm

      Deal is fairly popular among moderates and liberals because he told the religious right to shove it unlike our former governor in NC. #StrongerTogether


      En Marche!

  • cer April 13, 2017 at 7:30 pm

    The Washington Examiner gives your poll a shoutout.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/georgia-6th-poll-hints-at-another-disappointing-tuesday-night-for-dems/article/2620221?custom_click=rss


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • davybaby April 13, 2017 at 7:58 pm

    A few weeks ago I saw a quote from a local GOP operative who said that Ossoff was on track to get 42% in the primary, and 42% in the runoff.

    That sounds about right.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 13, 2017 at 8:58 pm

      If the GOP/DEM split is 58/42 in a district where Trump went 46/46, I think we’re pretty good for 2018.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • indocon April 13, 2017 at 8:57 pm

    Would be really great if Osoff lost by bigger margin than Thompson, it will squelch 2018 being R’s 2010 talk. Kookheads over at DK are exploding today.

    • Son_of_the_South April 13, 2017 at 9:54 pm

      Well, it might squelch the talk. Then again, Ds won some specials in 2009.


      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • indocon April 14, 2017 at 12:24 pm

      It confirms that does Price/Clinton voters were “Never Trumper” Republicans.

      • The Emperor April 14, 2017 at 1:29 pm

        11% of those that disapprove of Trump are voting for R candidates, while only 2% of Trump supporters are voting for Ossoff. These are likely either the suburban Rs that don’t like Trump or HFC types that would hate anyone not Ted Cruz or Justin Amash


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

  • californianintexas April 13, 2017 at 10:41 pm

    This reminds me of the CA-50 special in 2006. Democrat Busby finished well ahead of Bilbray, 43-15, but the GOP field was a lot more split. And Bilbray ended up returning to Congress afterwards.


    34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • MosheM April 13, 2017 at 11:51 pm

      A lot of similarities in the district profiles. Is GA-6 a decade behind?


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 14, 2017 at 12:07 am

        The movement of these places away from the GOP has been more or less a consistent trend from like 2000-2016. It didn’t really start with Donald Trump.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • Son_of_the_South April 14, 2017 at 12:54 am

          Well, Trump seems to have accelerated it. You’re right, but your timeline is off by a bit. It actually started in the early 90s when the Cold War had been won, taxes had been lowered, and crime was just starting to fall from its crack epidemic peak. The older generations of suburbanites, especially outside the inner suburbs, still largely stuck with the GOP. However, the younger generations, having largely got what they wanted out of the party, started to trend Dem. I think 9/11 briefly halted this. It’s also cultural and demographic. The suburbs got diverse right after the GOP became unpalatably secular for many white suburbanites and highly-educated minorities. The Democrats pounced on this, focusing more and more on social issues. This in turn began to really piss of the Dems’ traditional base in the WWC.


          23, R, TN-08
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • Republican Michigander April 14, 2017 at 10:13 am

            It depends which suburbs. I think race in suburbs is a much bigger factor. There are a lot of working class suburbs as well where Trump did very well. Migration is also an issue. The other issue is just candidate fit. Trump was uniquely bad for the “New South.”

            In Georgia’s case:
            Cobb County went from 448,000 people in 1990 to 688,000 in 2010, estimation of almost 750,000 today. It’s also about 40% minority.
            It went 53-32 for Bush in 92, 57-37 for Dole in 96, and 60-37 for W in 2000, later 62-37 for W over Kerry, so Cobb was still moving to the R’s until Obama. Then it was 54 and 55% R in 08 and 12. Trump was extraordinarily bad in Cobb. George W got 173,000 votes in Cobb (record number). Romney almost equalled that with a lower percentage in 2012. 171,000. The difference was Obama’s 141,000 votes in 2008 and 133,000 votes in 2012 instead of Kerry’s 104,000. Trump only had 152,900 votes. Hillary got 160,000, more than Obama. That did not happen in most counties. Even in Oakland County MI, Hillary did not equal Obama’s 2012 or 2008 vote total.

            Gwinnett County is majority-minority. It’s gone from 353,000 in 1990 to 805,000 in 2010, estimated 907,000 in 2015. It was a similar story as Cobb.

            Clayton County barely went for Bill Clinton in 92, but it is now less than 20% white today. It’s 85% Obama and 84% Hillary.

            Henry County flipped since it’s now 40%+ minority. Rockdale I think went for W twice, but is now 60% minority and 60% D.

            The outer suburban counties were still good for Trump. Forsyth bled from 80% to 70%, but Trump gained 4000 votes from Romney and 6000 from Bush’s 04 numbers. Hillary gained 9000 from Obama however. Both Trump and Hillary gained about 4000 votes from the 2012 numbers in Hall County. Trump gained about 4000 and Hillary 6000 in Cherokee County.


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • indocon April 14, 2017 at 12:34 pm

        The answer is yes as long as the spigot of immigration is open, democrats keep being the evil party, and republicans keep being the stupid party. Yes I know today’s immigrants are not tomorrow’s voters immediately, probably takes them 5–10 years, but as long as we have the gates open and no need to assimilate in broader American culture, new immigrants and old immigrants will keep voting Democrat. Plus this irony, areas dominated by conservative Republicans tend to attract immigrants, which tends to make them less conservative as time goes on. Case in point places like So Cal, DuPage county, in generation they have gone from Republicans to Democrat strongholds. Same thing will happen to Cobb County, Harris County, Wake County. Places like Maricopa maybe spared that fate because of continued influx of old white retirees.

  • rdelbov April 15, 2017 at 5:05 pm

    The critical question about this poll and for that matter the election outcome is early vote versus election day vote.

    Historically election day vote is more GOP and this poll backs that idea up. In 2016 early vote was close to 60% of all votes cast in GA. In special elections that number drops as low as 25%. Now the turnout is high so far so I am thinking 60K early and 60K on election day. Compared to +300K in 2016 general.

    My current guess is that O will be at 40% among early voters and closer to 35% or lower among election day voters. Just my guess.

    • Republican Michigander April 15, 2017 at 5:52 pm

      In a normal election, I’d agree with you. In a special election, I don’t know what to expect. I hope you’re right.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • The Emperor April 15, 2017 at 6:30 pm

        The higher the turnout, the more likely it falls to the fundamentals of the district. Both the GOP and the Dems are energized here


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

        • rdelbov April 15, 2017 at 9:03 pm

          Here’s another point about this funky special situation. IMO the big bucks GOTV is all on the D side. The state senator from Cobb county is only interested in turning out his base. Frankly if you live in Cobb county and support Handel he is not at all interested in you turning out. GOP candidates are only interested in turning out their voters. So IMO I am not sure it is a fair right now to judge which party is truly excited. The Ds are pushing turnout but the state, county and national GOP organizations are staying neutral in this race.

          So I will be watching election day numbers versus early voting to look at overall numbers and who gets the votes within each category.

  • indocon April 16, 2017 at 1:29 am

    This election is going to be the biggest head and fake for 2018, we will win by 10+ in runoff as long as Trump does not do anything stupid in next couple of months.

  • indocon April 16, 2017 at 1:40 am

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/georgia-special-election-ossoff-congress-sixth-district-demographics-215031

    Reading this article makes me angry for many reasons, continued evilness of Democratic Party to keep finding more hyphenated Americans do be angry at core Americans, but more so at Republicans at their inability to divide and conquer this vast swath of voters who are called asians and hispanics but who otherwise are made of hundreds of tribes who hate each other with guts in their home countries.

    Remember the point I have been bringing up here over and over….only way we get more asian and Hispanic voters is to play the Democrats game at next base, by flipping various sub groups against each other instead of evil white Americans.

    • cer April 16, 2017 at 9:01 am

      Articles like this continues to also show why many conservatives don’t take publication like Politico too seriously anymore, if they ever did.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • krazen1211 April 16, 2017 at 9:16 am

        Indocon has a great point in that its odd to see Muslims, Jews, and Hindus and such all coexist in the same political party.

        Still, for this particular person, the idea of passing her off as a ‘swing’ voter is silly. If you are going to invite a Congressional candidate into your house (this seems…odd?) to talk about gun control, you are pretty much a Democrat.

        It was a mistake to remove Cherokee County from this district.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 16, 2017 at 11:07 am

          I mean, if you want to get weirder, Trump also improved bigly among Muslims and Hindus (though not Jews, but I’ve always thought Jewish was an unhelpful category because I’m sure there are tons of ways you could play with the definition of Jewish to get what you want the poll to say).

          On the whole though, I don’t think Asian voters (most Muslims and Hindus) are winnable. Small-government conservatism is largely a Western European phenomenon (mostly British). Where conservative parties prosper, they’re actually sort of Trumpian (such as the protectionist & and pork-barrely LDP or the nationalist-protectionist BJP). So there’s no appeal to the immigrants themselves.

          Working-class Asian voters vote 90% Democrat because they are poor, urban, and are minorities (and thus benefit from “diversity” programs except those at Ivy League universities). Upscale suburban Asians want to go to those Ivy League universities and will thus emulate their views and beliefs. Neither group is winnable, though I could see a more nimble GOP modestly improving among the former to like…25%.

          I think I had a brief convo w/ Indocon about there being no major area on the Indian-Americans that was particularly amenable to the GOP, which I think is largely true, but I actually thought the group of “Hindu chauvinists who rejected Western culture” (not the exact words but something like this) you mentioned was actually reasonable amenable. In a withering rejection of Bushist neoconservatism, the global left is being the ideology of cultural universalism and the global right the particularists. Netanyahu, Modi, and Abe truly don’t care about “global values”. A genuinely small-government conservative GOP has no hope in a diversifying America, but I think a broad coalition for the opponents of the liberal universalist class could win…which is when you think of it, a pretty good description of Netanyahu’s current coalition.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 16, 2017 at 10:44 am

      Is “Core Americans” a Sailer thing? It was a useful way of thinking about the 2012 election, but Trump won the election by improving among EVERYONE else. He did worse overall among whites – it’s just that trading high-school educated whites for college-educated whites was a great electoral college strategy and he won a greater share of minorities (while black turnout in particular dropped). I don’t think it’s a useful way to think about 2016. The CCES survey suggests that he may have done worse among white men too and there certainly are places with a strong social desirability bias towards Trump. Before I was supporting Trump, most of my white male friends gave me some grief for not supporting Trump (yet). Heck, my family gave me a lot of grief in 2012 for voting for Romney (especially my Dad), and this time around, they all voted for Trump.

      Sailer is half-right in that the GOP needs to respond to a diversifying America by reforming to working-class whites, but it seems that me that like Sean Trende said, the same reforms needed to appeal to working-class whites are the same moves you’d need to appeal to Latino voters.

      If we really want to play the Democrat game, we should unite people on hating a specific kind of a white person. How many Republicans in the country are gentrifying anywhere? Republicans could still win in a diverse America, but they’d have to reconstruct the New Deal coalition. IIRC, Democrats won 22% of the college-educated vote when they stormed to victory in 1948. The problem is that this kind of party requires that we jettison the entire Republican political and consultant class, and they either imagine themselves as edgy Ayn Rand protagonists (the Tea Party types) or they imagine themselves Nietzchean ubermensch (the imaginary Nietzche, not the real one) ruling over unwashed plebs (the “moderate” establishment types).


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    Leave a Reply

    Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!