Political Roundup for April 17th, 2017

We’re only a day away from one of the hottest special elections of the year – check back this afternoon for our preview of tomorrow’s GA-6 race. Until then here’s some electoral news to cure your Easter candy sugar hangover.

President

Cash Money: During the 2016 election, Donald Trump had underwhelming fundraising numbers, to put it mildly. Now that he’s actually President, that doesn’t seem to be such an issue. His campaign committee raised $42 million last quarter, and they show no signs of stopping there. The permanent campaign rolls on into infinity.

Congress

Generic Ballot: Marist is out with a new national poll, and it shows the Democrats at+7 on the generic ballot test. That one hurts, but it’s probably survivable for the House majority given the lack of a likely voter screen and incumbent overperformance.

MT-Sen: Jon Tester is facing a tough reelection in 2018, as he does whenever he runs in fairly-red Montana. If he loses next year, though, it won’t be for lack of money. He’s raised $2 million in the last three months. Keep in mind too that Montana isn’t a very expensive state media-wise. Big Sky Country is going to be absolutely covered in ads not too long from now.

ND-Sen: Well, this is something I wasn’t expecting.The NRSC apparently dislikes Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) more than you might expect, and they’re going so far as to recruit a challenger to run against him for right to challenge Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) in 2018. To replace him, the NRSC is trying to draft State Sen. Tom Campbell (R) (no, not the CA one). Campbell is wealthy and could self-fund, but North Dakota isn’t even very expensive, so that hardly seems like much of a reason to abandon a sitting Congressman. What does seem like a decent reason, though, is that Cramer has recently defended Sean Spicer on a few of his missteps.

WV-Gov: In contrast to Jon Tester and his fat stacks of cash, Sen. Joe Manchin (D) only raised $552k in the first quarter of 2017. That’s not horrible, but he probably needs to pick it up. Manchin is popular, but West Virginia is Trumpland. He’ll need lots of money to counter the funding of whichever Republican ends up running against him. Some people are saying that this signals a possible retirement, but I don’t think that the number is low enough to read that into it, at least this quarter.

GA-06: In the hottest special election so far this year, we’ve been gifted with two new polls in addition to our own. The first is from WSBtv/Landmark and predicts tomorrows results to be 45-17-9-8-8 Ossoff-Handel-Gray-Moody-Hill.

GA-06 Continued: The other poll, from Fox5/OpinionSavvy, says something similar with slight difference. The spread is 42-21-11-11-9 Ossoff-Handel-Hill-Gray-Moody.

PA-07: Frankly, folks, this Democratic primary is getting a bit suspicious. On Saturday, IT consultant Drew McGinty (D) became the third(!) Philadelphia Democrat to jump into the race to challenge Rep. Pat Meehan (R). This wouldn’t be a problem, except for the fact that PA-07 contains not a single precinct in the City of Philadelphia. To top tall off, no democratic candidate who actually lives in the district has yet announced a run against Meehan.

Governor

IN-Gov: It’s very early in the cycle of it, but it looks like we might already have a Democratic candidate for King of the Hoosiers. Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott (D) recently hinted at a run for Governor in 2020 while speaking to an assemblage of high schoolers. Brian Howey thinks he’s serious, and Brian’s sources are usually credible. I’m not quite sure why McDermott wants to run statewide with Trump likely sweeping the state again even in a loss, but I guess he really wants to get out of Hammond.

ME-Gov: In a move that I’m sure really made some people mad, Treasurer Terry Hayes (I, but actually D) has announced that she’s running for Governor. What really sucks about this situation if you’re not her or one of her supporters is that if she comes at least second in the initial vote count, she’s almost guaranteed to win in the end due to Maine’s new (unconstitutional) IRV voting system. If IRV isn’t struck down and she wins, expect to see a lot more ‘Independent’ politicians in Maine in the future.

State/Local

Atlanta-Mayor: GA-06 may be getting all of the press right now, but ATL has another big race on the horizon – Mayor. During a recent press conference, Mayor Kasim Reed was asked about one of his chief rivals for reelection, State Sen. Vincent Fort (D). Reed didn’t hold back, dismissing Fort while also giving him both barrels with regards to his tenure in the General Assembly. As always, it looks like this race won’t be boring.

WA-SD-45: I gotta be honest, it looks like Republicans are going to lose the tenuous control that they have over the Washington State Senate. The Coalition has a one-seat majority. With the recent death of State Sen. Andy Hill (R), a special election has been called to fill District 45. Republicans chose their local golden boy, former gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi, to run in the special election. However, a new poll from PPP (D) shows Manka Dhingra (D) leading Rossi 46-40. More troublingly, of the undecided voters, 52% prefer a generic Democrat to only 1%(!) who prefer a generic Republican.

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56 Comments

  • Upstater22 April 17, 2017 at 7:37 am

    The two latest polls from France:

    Le Pen 22%
    Macron 22%
    Fillon 21%
    Melenchon 18%

    Macron 23%
    Le Pen 22%
    Fillon 20%
    Melenchon 20%

    Four candidates within MoE. At this point, the runoff could be any of the 6 permutations.

    In the UK, the two latest polls (from YouGov and ComRes), show a 21 point lead for the Tories (44-23 and 46-25). There is also a poll from Opinium showing Tories with but a 9 point advantage at 38-29. These guys have consistently shown a closer race than any of the other pollsters, explained by a higher rate of support for UKIP (14% in this poll) and a lower rate of support for LibDems (only 7% here).


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • cer April 17, 2017 at 9:01 am

      The UK LABOR PARTY will get absolutely destroyed if those numbers hold up. Talk about a potential electoral bloodbath.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • dforston April 17, 2017 at 9:07 am

      New poll just released from Opinion Way has LePen and Macron at 22 with Fillon at 21. And the far lefty Melanchon down to 18.

    • Greyhound April 17, 2017 at 1:13 pm

      The 23% is also a post-WWII low for any poll for the Labor party if I am remembering correctly.


      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

  • dforston April 17, 2017 at 9:06 am

    Emerson GA-6 poll – http://www.theecps.com/ – press release and crosstabs included
    Jon Ossoff – 43%
    Karen Handel at 17%
    Bob Gray at 15%
    Dan Moody at 9%.
    April 13-15, 2017

    • dforston April 17, 2017 at 9:57 am

      Another GA-6 poll – this time from Clout – https://www.scribd.com/document/345381103/GA-CD6-Poll-Ballot-Test-Topline-Report-4-17-2017

    • cer April 17, 2017 at 10:01 am

      There obviously continues to be a very good reason for the Dems to slam dunk this thing now, because a more united GOP after the primary will be VERY BAD news for them.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • HS April 17, 2017 at 10:35 am

        It doesn’t look like they can. Ossof will come in first, but it looks like he is heading for a 45%. And it looks like Handel will face him.

      • rdelbov April 17, 2017 at 10:36 am

        Looks like nearly 60K in early voting numbers. Based on these questions are we looking at 120K to 140K turnout this week?

        The higher the election day vote the better for GOP?

        • Izengabe April 17, 2017 at 12:23 pm

          I think all the Ossoff money and attention is actually backfiring for him as it is raising turnout and bringing more Republicans to the polls.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Manhatlibertarian April 17, 2017 at 12:56 pm

          I would have to think a high Ga-6 primary day turnout is good for the GOP; many of those who like Ossoff have probably already voted, since he really didn’t have any serious Dem opponent in the race. However, GOP voters still have to choose between several serious candidates and many may wait until primary day to make a decision. 5 polls now have showed Ossoff failing to get above 50%, getting anywhere from 39% to 45%. It could well be that if you opened up all the early ballots Ossoff could be above 50%, though not by much. So a big GOP turnout is needed on primary day. I would be very surprised if in the end, when all the votes are counted, Ossoff gets above 50%.

  • rdelbov April 17, 2017 at 9:43 am

    I have said it several times and I will say it again (sorry to repeat myself). Trump and the GOP will financial juggernauts come 2018 and 2020. I have known numerous people who swore off supporting GOP party (state or local or national or congressional) committees because Obamacare did not get repealed or teaparty candidates were not supported or the budget did not get balanced. Trump has united the establishment and disgruntled wings of the GOP. As noted above the money will be yuge.

  • Tekzilla April 17, 2017 at 9:59 am

    Trump just tweeted about Ossoff, I wonder if that helps Ossoff in the net?


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • cer April 17, 2017 at 10:02 am

      Probably not because Trump’s numbers in that district aren’t bad enough….


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • pstchrisp April 17, 2017 at 10:12 am

      Primary voters (especially on the D side) motivated by a Trump Tweet all voted over a week ago…

    • GatewayToTheWest April 17, 2017 at 10:18 am

      Net as in the election or afterwards for a career as a political “consultant?”


    • Manhatlibertarian April 17, 2017 at 1:30 pm

      Hard to say if Trump’s tweet will matter much because most of the real gung ho anti-Trump types have already voted for Ossoff. It’s possible it could motivate a few more anti-Trump types on primary day to vote who weren’t planning on doing do, but I don’t really see many in that category. This was not one of his more off-the-wall tweets, he basically just attacked Ossoff for being a “super liberal Democrat” despite his trying to present himself as a centrist. Don’t know if it will bring more Repubs to the polls who weren’t planning on voting already, since they are not united around one candidate. But Trump may have seen polls indicating Ossoff is not likely to gain 50% (I’m sure his aides are keeping track of the race) and decided to weigh in. That way if Ossoff gets less than 50% (as seems likely) he can claim credit; if not then on to the next thing.

  • Conservative First April 17, 2017 at 10:16 am

    Michigan precinct map
    http://www.bridgemi.com/quality-life/interactive-map-what-political-bubble-do-you-live

  • HS April 17, 2017 at 10:43 am

    Didn’t the Washington Republicans run Dino Rossi for another state Senate seat a few years back? You can’t keep doing that. Why would anyone believe he was at all interested in representing the district, after running multiple times for other offices.

    This sounds like an unforced error for the GOP. That is why they will lose.

    • krazen1211 April 17, 2017 at 11:01 am

      Eh, this was a 58-40 district in 2012, and 65-28 in 2016. It was on borrowed time.

    • shamlet April 17, 2017 at 11:04 am

      Rossi was appointed but he didn’t actually run for the seat. I think he was appointed after the filing deadline.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • HS April 17, 2017 at 11:11 am

        I think that makes things worse. It looks like he is a placeholder for the GOP. Why would a voter vote for such a person unless they were a loyal Republican? This was just a stupid decision.

  • dforston April 17, 2017 at 11:20 am

    UK Cons are up 21 points in the new Yougov poll — https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zs2ifb9u3g/TimesResults_170413_VI_Trackers.pdf

    Needs to be a mercy rule.

  • Alton April 17, 2017 at 11:34 am

    Would Mullin’s comments hurt him in ’18? I understand it’s a Safe R seat, but that’s what we said about Southerland and Terry in ’14.

    http://wtvr.com/2017/04/15/rep-markwayne-mullin-constituents-do-not-pay-salary/


    R-MI

    • shamlet April 17, 2017 at 11:38 am

      Could very easily be primary fodder, especially since I think Mullin would be breaking a term-limit pledge if and when he runs again.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Izengabe April 17, 2017 at 1:17 pm

        I think that is the point. Mullin isnt a career politician. He’s not in Congress for the money. In fact it is probably costing him money to be a member of Congress. He legitimately views what he’s doing as community service and I think he simply took offense to some jerk yelling at him at a town hall like a drunk ass pissed off that the bartender was cutting him off.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • pstchrisp April 17, 2017 at 11:41 am

      Southerland was never Safe R. He won by 6 in 2012 and was going to be facing a stronger challenger in 2014.

      • GoBigRedState April 17, 2017 at 11:59 am

        Nor was Terry. FL-2 was R+6 and NE-2 was R+4. OK-2 is R+24. Major difference.


        45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants #RIP27

    • Grant April 17, 2017 at 2:10 pm

      Not in the general. It’s an R+24 district. He just won reelection with over 70% of the vote. Though it could hurt him in the primary – he’s fought off relatively serious primary challengers the past 2 cycles.


      26, R, OK-5

  • RogueBeaver April 17, 2017 at 11:44 am

    ND-SEN: Heitkamp gets a Some Dude Bold Progressive challenge. https://www.sayanythingblog.com/entry/democrat-expected-announce-primary-challenge-incumbent-senator-heidi-heitkamp/


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • Izengabe April 17, 2017 at 1:18 pm

      Somebody quickly get the BernieBros to start sending this guy a ton of money!

      “Let’s send a message to those Trump loving Democrats In Name Only that the resistance wants real Democrats who will stand up to Donald Trump! Please donate to this Some Dude Bold Progressive challenge in North Dakota today!”


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Manhatlibertarian April 17, 2017 at 2:36 pm

        Hey what more could you want if you are a true blue SJW! A picture of North Dakota bold progressive Senate candidate Dustin Peyer in his firefighter’s uniform standing on top of some mountain. He’ll fix that Trump loving traitor Heitkamp! It’s more than enough to stir the heart of a bold progressive and make one reach for the checkbook (well maybe not really!).

  • indocon April 17, 2017 at 12:40 pm

    With regard to WA Senate, I would not be so quick to write this off, it’s not like those good white liberals of this district did not know that they were supporting a Republican while they are supporting other Democrats at state and national level by double digit margins, the question is squarely on their pocketbook, can they trust a democratic trifecta do not go amock with taxes and spending. This is the district that will be paying up if that happens. I think this is what the state Republican party is trying to make an referendum on, I was passing through this area and saw some radio commercials on the topic.

    • rdelbov April 17, 2017 at 1:03 pm

      same here PPP poll with the GOp candidate just starting her campaign. I note that the race will not be held until November 2017!!!

    • krazen1211 April 17, 2017 at 1:06 pm

      I am generally not a fan of winning by losing, but in Washington I would not be opposed to letting the left fix their insane Mccleary problem that they created.

      Liberals gone wild is the best way to maybe get a Rauner or Hogan down the line.

  • jncca April 17, 2017 at 5:26 pm

    http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article145044744.html

    Moderate CA Assembly Democrat Rudy Salas (D) stripped of committee chairmanship for opposing gas tax increase.

    Potentially relevant because he resides in or very near Valadao’s congressional district and would be the top potential challenger to Valadao. This may encourage him to leave the Assembly at some point (or not, since he’s still very safe in his district which is full of more moderate Hispanic Democrats)


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • edtorres04 April 17, 2017 at 5:55 pm

      Is Rubio still a possible challenger for this seat?

      • jncca April 17, 2017 at 6:05 pm

        I think he’s too happy with his lobbying career. People don’t usually become lobbyists if they want to get back in the game.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • shamlet April 17, 2017 at 6:20 pm

    OK-1: Tulsa County DA Tim Harris (R) is in. http://www.tulsaworld.com/homepagelatest/dc-digest-tim-harris-to-seek-u-s-rep-jim/article_3c79a609-7de6-5df5-9ea7-e3eae37bb7f0.html


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • davybaby April 17, 2017 at 7:48 pm

      Bridenstine his been talking to Trump people about becoming the head of NASA. The seat may become open before 2018.

  • Left Coast Libertarian April 17, 2017 at 6:56 pm

    The Kremlin backed leader of CalExit is staying in Russia and withdrawing his petition. It’s hysterical that someone leading the anti-Donald Trump charge is being helped by Russians.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9pDLHaVwAAlsnU.jpg:large

  • Izengabe April 17, 2017 at 7:05 pm

    On our Twitter account we are trying to get Wyoming gubernatorial primary results from 1954. Anyone know the Clifford Joy Rogers % in the primary? What was Clifford Joy Rogers % in the primary? He succeeded to the WY gov’ship but lost to Milward Simpson in that primary.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • cinyc April 17, 2017 at 8:51 pm

      Unofficial totals as of the Friday, August 20, 1954 edition of the Afton Star Valley Independent were as follows, according to the OCR text on Newspaperarchive.com (http://tinyurl.com/kjfakj8):

      Governor: Simpson (R) 14,062, Rogers. (R) 10,407, Modeler (R) 4.408. Bartling (R) 3,458, Bishop (R) 3,334, Clinger (R) 1,467

      Was it a multi-candidate race? The line also lists the Democrats: Jack (D) 19,283, Dexter (D) 5,205.

      Obviously, these aren’t the official or final results, but they should give you some indication of how the vote ran. I can’t find any official results for 1954 online.

      What’s the import of the 1954 race?

      • cinyc April 17, 2017 at 9:04 pm

        For what it’s worth, the August 19, 1954 edition of the Billings Gazette seems to report higher numbers than the Afton Star Independent for both Simpson and Rogers – but I can’t really read the text of paper from the free preview. The edition of that newspaper is available on Ancestry.com, if anyone has access to it.

        • Izengabe April 17, 2017 at 9:19 pm

          Geoffrey Skelley asked and we figured someone here would know the answer! Awesome work CINYC!
          https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/854106069450313728


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • cinyc April 17, 2017 at 10:01 pm

            Thanks!

            Just to put everything I found in one place, there’s a very clear copy of the August 19, 1954 Sundance Times available on smalltownpapers.com, which has the earlier unofficial results with 492/678 precincts reporting (http://sun.stparchive.com/Archive/SUN/SUN08191954P005.php) They followed up the next week with official results for local county races, but unfortunately, not the state races.

            • cinyc April 18, 2017 at 1:43 am

              I think I tracked down how to get the official 1954 results.

              The Wyoming Secretary of State published the 1954 results in the “Official directory of Wyoming and election returns for 1954” in 1955. It is sort of available online in the Hathi Trust Digital Library here (https://hdl.handle.net/2027/uiug.30112114896423). The 1955 version isn’t fully available due to copyright restrictions – though, for some reason the 1959 version isn’t copyright restricted, is totally readable and searchable, and has the 1958 primary results. Go figure.

              The 1955 version is searchable, and fair use excerpts supposedly are available to those with member access. As Professor Skelley is associated with UVA, he should be able to get in. Us plebes not associated with a university can only see that there indeed are search results for the phrase “primary” and “rogers simpson”. So the results should be there, in theory. If not, the Wyoming State Archivist does take e-mail requests for very short research requests ( http://wyoarchives.state.wy.us/Archives/Visit.aspx). This would probably fit that description. All they’d have to do is track down this publication and e-mail back the results.

      • shamlet April 17, 2017 at 9:15 pm

        Geoffrey Skelley at UVA wanted it for some reason. Thanks!


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Manhatlibertarian April 17, 2017 at 8:53 pm

    Monday New York tidbits:

    Although the state legislature stays in session until June, Gov Cuomo said he doesn’t think a lot will be accomplished (such as ethics reforms) now that his omnibus budget has been passed and he will concentrate on “building things”.

    With the mysterious death of Court of Appeals (highest court in NY State) Justice Sheila Abdus-Salaam, the Commission on Judicial Nomination will accept applications for the post through May 19. The Commission reviews the applications and interviews those interested in the post and winds up submitting several names to the Gov. He picks one, and his nomination must be confirmed by the State Senate.

    Dem AG Eric Schneiderman (who is thought to aspire for higher office) has donated his salary from a brief appearance on the CBS cop drama “Blue Bloods” to charity.

    Mayor deBlasio has attacked the famed statue of the charging bull on Wall Street as an ode to “unfettered capitalism”. But when told what the mayor said, Gov Cuomo said he doesn’t have a problem with the statue.

    Independent candidate for NYC Mayor Bo Dietl, a former famous NYPD detective, bit part actor and radio talk show celebrity, has claimed that the problems he has with NY State over unpaid taxes is due to a “Muslim guy” in the State Dept. of Taxation and Finance, who doesn’t like what he said on radio talk shows. But he has also had problems with the Feds on taxes owed in the past as well as with former business partners who claim he owes them money. Dietl admits one reason he got into financial problems was because he at one time was a heavy gambler. He claims he gambled so much at the Trump Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City that Trump sent a personal helicopter to take him there. I think this guy tends to exaggerate a bit so who knows what’s really true.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

    • Izengabe April 17, 2017 at 9:32 pm

      deBlasio is an ass. He clearly knows nothing about art or the history of The Charging Bull which was a piece of guerrilla art that has become one of the most interesting landmarks in NYC. But deBlasio love Fearless Girl which is nothing but a corporate publicity stunt designed to publicize and sell a financial product. Read the whole back story here:
      https://gregfallis.com/2017/04/14/seriously-the-guy-has-a-point/


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Manhatlibertarian April 17, 2017 at 10:06 pm

        Thanks for the back story which shows deBlasio is so eager to fall over himself to be “politically correct”, when he never understood how the statue got to be there in the first place. This was not commissioned by the NY Stock Exchange, which didn’t want it, but was the work of a patriotic Sicilian immigrant who made the “Charging Bull” to show the strength and power of the American people. Wall Street only grudgingly came to accept it so it is hardly an ode to “unfettered capitalism” But par for the course for Mayor deB.

      • Greyhound April 17, 2017 at 10:35 pm

        So doesn’t that kind of make Fearless Girl a perfect encapsulation of Upscale-Hipster Progressivism? A cheap marketing ploy by a multi-trillion dollar Wall Street Investment firm trying to sell itself as “Grassroots Feminist” by aggressively disrespecting one of the world’s most popular pieces of guerilla art, commissioned by a patriotic American Immigrant on his own dollar to represent the resiliency of the American people?


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

        • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 12:42 am

          Yes. Fearless girl is basically Kendall Jenner with a Pepsi can. My favorite part is that in the press release that State Street’s advertising firm put out they referred to Fearless girl as SHE with capital letters in reference to the State Street Global Advisors ETF that she is advertising.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • krazen1211 April 17, 2017 at 9:57 pm

    Neil Gorsuch hit the ground running at the Supreme Court today. I am awaiting action on North Carolina common sense voter ID law, perhaps by the end of this week. Lots of cleanup work to be done.

    • Jon April 17, 2017 at 10:19 pm

      Note that he didn’t participate in last Thursday’s conference, the next one is Friday.
      In fact there were no cases accepted as a result of last Thursday’s conference, and I think there weren’t any accepted during the conference prior to that so it looked like actions related to cases may have been on hold.


      45, M, MO-02

  • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 6:18 am

    Snap elections in GB on June 8the. I think Labour will perdorm better than the polls suggest. Not enough to make a major Difference, but it will be noticeable.

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