GA-06 Special Election Liveblog #2

AP  DDHQ

11:12 ET – Please make your way over the Liveblog #3.

10:12 ET – Ossoff gets a slight bump as the last of DeKalb comes in, but his best county is now done counting.

9:42 ET – With Ossoff down to 51% per Decision Desk, I think we can safely say that we’re going to a runoff. Handel still holds the second spot with 18%

9:35 ET – Over in VA, Smith (D) has defeated Del. Miller (R) for Prince William County Clerk of the Court 54-46.

9:27 ET – Fulton just threw in its first Election Day votes and brought Ossoff down to 54%. With only 67/210 precincts reporting, I think our initial panic was a bit overblown

9:24 ET – More DeKalb precincts just appeared. Ossoff ticks down to 57%

9:13 ET – With Cobb dropping 9 more E-Day precincts, Ossoff is down to 58%

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156 Comments

  • segmentation_fault April 18, 2017 at 9:13 pm

    Cohn:
    Based exclusively on the 41 ~completed precincts:
    I’d guess we’re on track for 190k, Ossoff at 48. A real MoE on both.

  • TheWizardOf144 April 18, 2017 at 9:15 pm

    I know freaking out like this is cathartic, but guys, Ossoff is dropping like a rock with the election day vote coming in. Here’s the thing…most of our voters won’t vote early. Not “do not”, “WILL not”. It’s not “the right way to do it”. It’s cheating. It would never occur to our voters to vote early. It feels dishonest to them.
    Maybe Ossoff wins. Maybe I’m wrong.

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:18 pm

      I agree, especially with 11 GOP candidates. People don’t want to regret their vote, so they wait.


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

    • Ryan_in_SEPA April 18, 2017 at 9:19 pm

      From DDHQ: Overall in DeKalb County, Ossoff at 58.4% with 67% in. HRC got 57% there last fall.

      For Ossoff to pull this off, he probably needs to compensate for Cobb having a number of Hillary Republicans.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 9:21 pm

        Yeah, I actually think we’re holding him at 48% or so. But the combined Democratic vote might still be above 50%. The run-off is going to see a lot of $$$.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • MaxwellsDemon April 18, 2017 at 9:20 pm

    Ossoff now at 56%, looks like we’ll barely hold him under 50% I think. Still extremely concerning.

  • bluewahoo April 18, 2017 at 9:20 pm

    Smith (D) beats Miller (R) in Prince William County Clerk race 53-46.

    Prince William results were all dumped together, Manassas and Manassas Park results have been in for a while.

  • SwingStateRepublican April 18, 2017 at 9:21 pm

    Prince William Clerk

    100% of precincts
    Jackie Smith (D) wins 53.9 (13,905) over Jackson Miller (R) 46.1 (11,871)


    20/R/NC-4(College)/VA-7(Home)
    Social liberal, fiscal conservative

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:22 pm

    Fulton County dump of seven precincts caused Ossoff to drop one point, large shift in north Fulton. Good sign


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

    • MaxwellsDemon April 18, 2017 at 9:25 pm

      I think those were from Cobb County actually

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:25 pm

      Ossoff won these areas in the early vote but Election Day vote pushed his numbers down 20 points or so, very interesting


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

  • krazen1211 April 18, 2017 at 9:23 pm

    What are the campaign finance laws in a runoff? Can all these hollywood leftists who plunked down $2700 send in another $2700?

  • James April 18, 2017 at 9:25 pm

    NYT and DDHQ running several minutes ahead of AP. With 67% of DeKalb and 37% from Cobb in, Ossoff is down to 55.6%. Nothing from Fulton ED yet.
    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6


    Let's Make America Greater

  • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 9:25 pm

    Best coverage of #GA6 isn’t on the cable networks; it’s @BuzzFeedNews live with @B_M_Finnigan and @katherinemiller https://t.co/dMUrA3o4rV

    Brandon’s Periscope feed with BuzzFeed news is absolutely awesome. It’s like a live action version of rrh


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • MaxwellsDemon April 18, 2017 at 9:26 pm

    Fellow Gtown alum Ossoff (who managed to hold a security clearance for 6 months less time as me in despite working for 8 more years) now down to 54%

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:27 pm

    Fulton went from 61% Ossoff to 55% Ossoff after a few precincts came in
    Also, Ossoff is down 1.5 points thanks to another 15 precincts or so


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

  • Manhatlibertarian April 18, 2017 at 9:28 pm

    Ossoff down to 54% as some Fulton Co precincts trickle in; most Fulton precincts still out. Handel at 18%

  • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 9:29 pm

    53.9% Ossoff with ~2/3 of vote in.

    Feels like watching a Virginia statewide election in reverse.

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:30 pm

      So with about half of the Election day vote in, Ossoff dropped ten points. Good sign


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

    • GoldenStatesman April 18, 2017 at 9:31 pm

      Or even a County Clerk Race as we saw the Republican start off on top and end up trailing. Virginia is for heartbreakers.


      23, R, CA-38, Cubano, Community College Trustee

      • bluewahoo April 18, 2017 at 9:35 pm

        Eh – those early numbers were from 7 precincts out of a 103 precinct election. All of which overlapped with Miller’s House of Delegates district, and one of which he lived in. Those 7 precincts pretty obviously were the high water mark for him.

    • MaxwellsDemon April 18, 2017 at 9:31 pm

      Dont you mean 1/3rd of vote in?

    • edtorres04 April 18, 2017 at 9:32 pm

      That’s 32%, not 2/3 just to be clear my friend!

      • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:33 pm

        I think he means with early vote counting. 100,000 total votes. So another 50k-70k left
        Still a lot of DeKalb election day out, so Ossoff could lose more of his lead there


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

      • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 9:35 pm

        100,000 votes are in. Most analysts expect 140-160K total votes. So roughly 2/3 have been counted.

        • MaxwellsDemon April 18, 2017 at 9:36 pm

          I’m pretty sure we are looking at 180K about, close to midterm turnout

          • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:37 pm

            Even better for the GOP.


            male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
            Rubio Republican

            • Ryan_in_SEPA April 18, 2017 at 9:38 pm

              Yep. The more turnout the better.


              31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

              • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:40 pm

                If that’s the turnout, then we still have 2/3rds of the Election day vote left to count.


                male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
                Rubio Republican

          • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 9:37 pm

            Midterm turnout was ~200K

  • RogueBeaver April 18, 2017 at 9:31 pm

    Wasserman calls a runoff. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/854507031465791488


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • HS April 18, 2017 at 9:33 pm

      And it is looking like Handel is going to be in second.

    • Manhatlibertarian April 18, 2017 at 9:42 pm

      I agree. As I said earlier we needed a heavy GOP leaning ED turnout and it looks like we go it. With 40,000-60,000 election day votes to go I don’t see Ossoff staying above 50% based on the ED trend. I didn’t think all those polls were wrong.

  • MaxwellsDemon April 18, 2017 at 9:40 pm

    Ossoff down to 50.8% with most of Cobb in now

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:42 pm

      How much of Cobb is in?


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • MaxwellsDemon April 18, 2017 at 9:43 pm

        Not sure, listening to DecisionDesk on Periscope

      • cinyc April 18, 2017 at 9:45 pm

        73%, per the New York Times.

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:41 pm

    Ossoff at 50.7
    http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/67317/Web02-state/#/


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

    • krazen1211 April 18, 2017 at 9:42 pm

      Hammer slowly drops.

      Very silly to wet the bed over early results!

  • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 9:41 pm

    RRR did you have a horse in this race?


    R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

    • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 9:45 pm

      🙂

    • RRR April 18, 2017 at 11:24 pm

      Clearly Bob Gray!


      NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
      Scarsdale test conservative
      Reagan and Bush Made America Great

  • TheWizardOf144 April 18, 2017 at 9:41 pm

    Ossoff is going to end up with 43-45% if current trends continue.

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:42 pm

      The top level of my prediction


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

  • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 9:42 pm

    BREAKING: Ossoff (D) down to 50.8% of the vote w/ 119k votes counted. He’s not even close to where he needs to be for 50% overall. #GA06


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 9:44 pm

    Last day of Passover was today. I totally forgot about this race. Like it didn’t pop up in my mind even once today.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 9:48 pm

      I blame a lack of carbohydrates for your memory loss.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Lucas Black April 18, 2017 at 9:53 pm

        Too much Manischewitz

      • rayinma April 18, 2017 at 9:59 pm

        Matzo is pretty much pure, concentrated starch…

      • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 10:01 pm

        Matzah and potatoes are only that…


        28, M, R, NY-10

  • Greyhound April 18, 2017 at 9:44 pm

    So does think mean Ossoff is getting like <35% of the ED vote? Because that it a hell of a margin to lose with so many votes to still count.


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 9:45 pm

      It was a Cobb dump.


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 9:50 pm

      Our poll was deadon. We had Ossoff winning early vote big and losing election day with Ossoff 1st and Handel in 2nd. Our only miss was overestimating Slotin. But that could be blamed on respondent error of mistaking one Democrat for the other.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 9:45 pm

    Ossoff (D) fell from 47.6% to 42.5% of the Election Day vote after the most recent batch of 20k was counted. GOP rejoices. #GA06


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:46 pm

      Too much panicking. This is the new norm. Massive D early vote, and massive R election day vote


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

  • TheWizardOf144 April 18, 2017 at 9:46 pm

    Good thing the President whipped up our voters today 😉

  • Lucas Black April 18, 2017 at 9:46 pm

    I will admit I was nervous as hell watching these early numbers. I just didn’t want to hear all the smug liberal crowing. Now they can go back to crying in their soup.

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:47 pm

      Barely anything in from Fulton either
      And Ossoff has reached Hillary’s total in DeKalb


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

    • ihate2fly April 18, 2017 at 9:53 pm

      And (hopefully) burning another $10 million on the runoff.

  • Ryan_in_SEPA April 18, 2017 at 9:48 pm

    This is just like a Pennsylvania election… The Democrats are up by 20 then as the results come in from everywhere not within 30 miles of Philadelphia the story changes.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 9:50 pm

      At least you all don’t have to deal with the insanity of early vote counts.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA April 18, 2017 at 9:56 pm

        Ironically I suspect it would not matter much as Philadelphia returns so quickly anyway. The margins might be slightly higher out of the gate I guess.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 9:51 pm

    I think its pretty clear the Russians hacked the election day vote…..


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • cer April 18, 2017 at 9:51 pm

    Folks always remember the DEMS beat us in early votes. Don’t PANIC so quickly…. 🙂

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:52 pm

      That’s what I keep saying 😉
      Suburban collapse might not be as problematic as one thinks


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

    • RRR April 18, 2017 at 9:56 pm

      Margins matter. This was a 60+% Bush and Romney district, and McCain was likely close. Not a good look to be struggling to keep it.


      NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
      Scarsdale test conservative
      Reagan and Bush Made America Great

      • krazen1211 April 18, 2017 at 9:57 pm

        McCain got 59%. We weakened this district by 3% in the 2011 redistricting; he got 62% in the prior district.

      • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 9:58 pm

        Yes, that will be the Dem talking point tomorrow.

        • RRR April 18, 2017 at 9:59 pm

          And, sometimes, talking points are very valid. Were 2009 GOP talking points without merit?

          Trump still won this district. Imagine if Erik Paulsen or Dave Reichert had stepped aside.


          NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
          Scarsdale test conservative
          Reagan and Bush Made America Great

          • AJNolte April 18, 2017 at 10:01 pm

            OTOH Dems aren’t likely to be able to drop 8 million dollars on every swing state district in 2018. Yeah, this isn’t great even with Osoff ending up in the forties, but even that semi-decent result for Democrats shouldn’t be over-interpreted.

          • Greyhound April 18, 2017 at 10:04 pm

            Well, for starters we would be having an actual primary as opposed to hoping our primary electorate out-number’s the Democrat’s general one.


            R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

            • RRR April 18, 2017 at 10:16 pm

              Ok, the primary v. general turnout consideration is very sharp. Didn’t think of that.


              NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
              Scarsdale test conservative
              Reagan and Bush Made America Great

          • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 10:17 pm

            This was the “Line in the sand” battle though. They raised 8 Figures! Margins matter, for sure. And heck he might win the runoff. But my guess is a lot of stuff is going to happen between now and November 2018 that has a greater influence.
            Scott Brown WON. If he lost by 4, the messaging would have fallen so much flatter, even though margins matter. “We ALMOST won in Massachusetts” just doesn’t have the same rallying cry. Wins energize and engage exponentially more than losses by smaller than expected.

      • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 10:06 pm

        And my guess is it will be a 60+% Handel district in 2020.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Republican Michigander April 18, 2017 at 11:16 pm

        The rules are tossed out in special elections because they are a different electorate. The D’s are trying to Scott Brown us, Joseph Cao us, or Charles Djou us. This race with a top 2 and 50% clearance rule with a bad fit for Trump in a perfect storm.

        Right now, my view is survive and advance. I’m not going to panic over losing a special election seat or barely winning one. If Ossoff wins and wins in November 2018, I’ll be concerned. If we narrowly win (or lose) this or the Gwinnett seat next door in 2018, I’ll be concerned.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:51 pm

    Ossoff now at 50.1


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

  • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 9:54 pm

    Ossoff at 50.1% with 135K votes in. Roughly 85% of total vote??

  • Manhatlibertarian April 18, 2017 at 9:57 pm

    According to AP 41 out of 43 in from DeKalb, Ossoff’s best county and he’s still hovering around 51%. 37 out of 51 out of Cobb and only 19 out of 116 from Fulton. Should drop below 50% soon. Still watch the Dems and MSM portray this as a great victory, even though getting more than 50% today was their best chance to take the district.

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:57 pm

    Fulton is Handel’s base, so she should get a higher percentage when it comes in


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

  • AJNolte April 18, 2017 at 9:59 pm

    So, given that Handel’s already at 18% and her Fulton base is mostly still out, how high might she climb when all’s said and done?

  • Greyhound April 18, 2017 at 10:00 pm

    Anyone keep track of how many raw early votes there were? I’m trying to create an EV vs ED comparison here, because Ossoff is on track to do like 30 points worse in the latter than the former, at least.


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 10:02 pm

      About 53k


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • Greyhound April 18, 2017 at 10:08 pm

        Yeah, he’s doing about 30 points worse in the election day voters than he did in the EVs. should probably wind up around 45% at this rate if turnout is around 160k overall.


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 10:03 pm

    Ossoff, 49.9 on DDHQ


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

    • indocon April 18, 2017 at 10:05 pm

      Has there been been an election like this on RRH? I can’t think of any…phew. We’ll still around, sky is not falling pals.

    • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 10:10 pm

      Boom goes the dynamite!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • indocon April 18, 2017 at 10:04 pm

    look at Drudge headline right now

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 10:05 pm

      God, Ossoff’s picture on that. He looks like an escaped mental patient


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

    • Ryan_in_SEPA April 18, 2017 at 10:06 pm

      Hahahaha… pretty much matches my Facebook post offering thanks on behalf of Republican congress critters in marginal seats for wasting $10 million on GA-6.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 10:05 pm

    All of DeKalb is in. Clinton got 57% there and Ossoff got 58.5% https://t.co/KomWxcsRsa


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • indocon April 18, 2017 at 10:06 pm

      how much did price get there?

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 10:06 pm

      A decent overperformance, but probably not enough


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

    • Greyhound April 18, 2017 at 10:10 pm

      Thing is, he’s under-performing her in Cobb, which is almost all in. And Fulton is still mostly out, so his total there should drop below 50% shortly.


      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

      • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 10:12 pm

        So, Ossoff ran 1.6% ahead of Clinton in DeKalb. Running 1.5% ahead of her in Cobb with 96% in. Would work out to 48% overall.

        He can still win a runoff. Wouldn’t be surprised.


        28, M, R, NY-10

        • indocon April 18, 2017 at 10:16 pm

          What would be great is if all Republicans got together on a single stage together tomorrow and endorsed Handle .

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 10:08 pm

    Cobb is still not all in.


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

  • rdelbov April 18, 2017 at 10:08 pm

    Depends on election day vote for Fulton-but IMO it looks like he will be under 50%–whew!!!

  • CO Conservative April 18, 2017 at 10:12 pm

    Ossoff outperformed Clinton by 1.5 points in Cobb and 1.6 points in DeKalb. Assuming final difference in Fulton is about the same, we should expect Ossoff to only get about 40% of the Election Day vote in Fulton. That will drive him well below 50.0%.

  • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 10:13 pm

    Ossoff ticks back up to 50.4% per DD. Yikes!!

    Seems to be holding his own in Fulton

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 10:13 pm

      That was due to DeKalb finishing.


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

    • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 10:14 pm

      It was just the last couple of DeKalb. Should be all down from here.

  • indocon April 18, 2017 at 10:14 pm

    What today’s actions means is that people like Culberson, Schwiekert, Sessions, Orange County trioka, and maybe even Roskam better get to work hard. Schwiekert should seriously look at challenging Flake. Also, Issa seat is lean Dem for ’16. Trump ’16 trends are setting in place.

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 10:16 pm

      True on most counts, but those districts won’t see a total dump of 10 million dollars and full on Celebrity focus for two whole months


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • RRR April 18, 2017 at 10:19 pm

        Celebrity focus often backfires.


        NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
        Scarsdale test conservative
        Reagan and Bush Made America Great

      • RRR April 18, 2017 at 10:20 pm

        Did it take that much spending per seat for the GOP to pick up 63 seats in 2010?


        NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
        Scarsdale test conservative
        Reagan and Bush Made America Great

    • RRR April 18, 2017 at 10:18 pm

      Don’t forget Paulsen, Lance, Frelinghuysen, Coffman, Costello, Yoder, Reichert…


      NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
      Scarsdale test conservative
      Reagan and Bush Made America Great

      • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 10:25 pm

        Let’s remember that this is an open seat though. Incumbency does matter. If Price had to face some kind of snap re-elect, it likely wouldn’t have been close. If all of those incumbents run in 2018, they’ll be in a much better position than if the district had to have some kind of crazy multi-candidate jungle election. You can’t compare Specials to Generals anyway, but if you want to compare them, you have to realize they are Open Seats.

        • krazen1211 April 18, 2017 at 10:28 pm

          Eh, I am not in panic mode by any means, nor do I particularly value the House of Representatives, but the House 2010 wave was mostly us swamping incumbents.

          How many seats did we gain by retirements in 2010? Obey in WI-07? Sestak in PA-07? Hodes in NH-02? A couple more? Folks like Ellsworth in IN-08 and Melancon in LA-03 would have gone down even if they didn’t vacate their seats.

        • TexasR April 18, 2017 at 10:30 pm

          Uh, are you seriously arguing that we shouldn’t worry that we’re basically barely hanging on by single digits in a seat where Tom Price received the following totals?

          2004: 100%
          2006: 72%
          2008: 68%
          2010: 99.9%
          2012: 65%
          2014: 66%
          2012: 61.6%


          Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
          #KeepFreeTradeGreat

          • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 10:34 pm

            The GOP shouldn’t worry until the Runoff. If Handel loses or it’s very tight, that would mean a lot more. Kansas probably meant more than tonight. The dynamics of this race were silly. Demworld rallies around one guy with $10M and the GOP is splintered into bits. It’s not a good test case by any means.

          • cer April 18, 2017 at 10:41 pm

            I for one won’t panic in a seat where the Dems poured a ton of $$$$$ in it, and the GOP was deeply divided. Also add to that, like I’m always reminded by those so called fantastic POLLs out there, that Trump is under 50% approval.

            • TexasR April 18, 2017 at 10:43 pm

              Does your caps lock randomly get stuck?
              Also, sometimes having rose colored cataracts isn’t the best thing.
              The facts are that this should be a base seat, and this shouldn’t be close. Since it is close, it means we have a problem.


              Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
              #KeepFreeTradeGreat

              • MaxwellsDemon April 18, 2017 at 10:47 pm

                It;s not really a base seat anymore. It;s morphed into a Trump marginal, which is both a good and bad thing. It’s good in the sense that Trump won and if you basically hold pat with Trump numbers, you get a majority in the House and the Presidency. It’s bad that if Trump starts to slip in the Midwest and loses his sway over non-college educated voters, the party is about to take a beating.

                • krazen1211 April 18, 2017 at 10:56 pm

                  Seat 218 in the House by Trump/Clinton numbers is VA-02 (which Trump won by 3.4). This seat is to the left of the median by about 5-6 seats.

                  Perhaps House control in 2019 will tilt on seats like this close to the median. If we do hold seats like this and the House as a whole at all, we are outperforming historical averages of midterm losses.

                • TexasR April 18, 2017 at 11:20 pm

                  If it isn’t a base seat anymore, then that means that the people running the party have no clue what they’re doing. These are the people who turned Georgia into a Republican state, and they’re the key to keeping it a Republican state. Taking such voters for granted, as many even on here seem to, isn’t a great idea.


                  Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                  #KeepFreeTradeGreat

                  • Republican Michigander April 18, 2017 at 11:40 pm

                    TexasR – I partially agree, but don’t discount migration. It’s not just the same people there who turned Georgia into a Republican state (if they didn’t move to Cherokee County). Some of those areas are still around (Roswell), but there is a lot more minority migration to that area – not just from Atlanta proper, but from the north. When I was visiting my now ex-girlfriend in neighboring Gwinnett County, I ran into a lot of ex-Michiganders there. Some of them were probably R, but a lot of them were from Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw as well (My Michigan State shirt was a good icebreaker). I didn’t talk politics with them, but if they are black and from Saginaw, they probably weren’t voting R.

                    Populations:
                    Cobb County
                    2000 – 607,751
                    2015 est – 741,334

                    Fulton
                    2000 – 816,006
                    2015 est – 1,010,562

                    DeKalb
                    2000 – 665,865
                    2015 est – 740,321

                    Gwinnett’s a different district, but a similar area.
                    2000 – 588,448
                    2015 est – 907,135

                    The silver lining is that some of this can be offset from areas like Cherokee and Forsyth counties. That aside, we should not lose North Fulton, and should not a Cobb County based district at all, regardless of anything in DeKalb (anything R there was on borrowed time at best).


                    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

              • cer April 18, 2017 at 10:50 pm

                My glasses are fine and NO, my caps aren’t locked, and NO I’m still not in panic mode.

                However, the GOP in DC needs to get a few things done, and the GOP in GA needs to come together. I’m positive, it can all happen.

            • Boehnerwasright April 18, 2017 at 10:48 pm

              Outside GOP groups spent about 5 Million I think, the spending disparity was not as big as it seems. Ossoff overperformed his polls, as the averages with undecided allocated had him at around 45%.

              That doesn’t mean he will win the runoff or that the GOP is doomed in 2018. But dems overperformance in recent special elections should be a warning sign. Dems overperformed in all 3 special house election that were held this year.

              • MaxwellsDemon April 18, 2017 at 10:50 pm

                A lot of that money was spent beating the hell out of other Republicans though.

  • Lucas Black April 18, 2017 at 10:16 pm

    So who winds up spending more money in the runoff? GOP or Dems?

  • hfcon April 18, 2017 at 10:17 pm

    Here’s a useful map showing which parts of Fulton have or have not reported day-of election results (partial results seems to refer to EV only): http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/Fulton/67378/Web02/#/rpt (click on “see precincts reporting” for a map)

    The northernmost precincts in Fulton–and the strongest GOP ones overall–seem to have come in already strongly for Handel. Probably not enough day-of Dem votes though left to keep Ossoff above 50, but it will be close.


    PA-02

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 10:20 pm

      Still 99 election day precincts out


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • rdelbov April 18, 2017 at 10:25 pm

        Under 50% is my guess at this time.

        • hfcon April 18, 2017 at 10:29 pm

          Yep, it looks like there are still some strong R precincts left too around the Medlock Bridge area to counter any effect from the remaining D strongholds around Sandy Springs and Dunwoody.

          Also, if I recall correctly, back in the 2010 runoff between Handel and Deal there was an absurdly long wait for…Fulton County to fully report (and when it did, she came up just short then).


          PA-02

          • rdelbov April 18, 2017 at 10:55 pm

            Not sure if Ossoff gets down to 46% but it will be below 50%

            No I am not panicked. Ds won NY house races in 2009 and it meant squat in 2010.

            Let’s start winning the runoff tomorrow

            Good night!

            • indocon April 18, 2017 at 10:57 pm

              Its bright and sunny is Alaska right now, wonderful country we live in.

  • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 10:23 pm

    Non-Ossoff Democrats still at 0.9% of the vote. Combined Dem total 51.3%, Ossoff 50.4%

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 10:25 pm

      Ossoff collapsed 13 points in DeKalb after Election Day votes were counted, 16 points in Cobb. In Fulton, he collapsed 7 points based on a few precincts. 99 left to go


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 10:29 pm

        Ossoff needs something like 49% of the ED vote in remaining Fulton precincts to cross 50%.

        • cer April 18, 2017 at 10:29 pm

          If that is case, very unlikely that he gets it.

      • rdelbov April 18, 2017 at 10:29 pm

        could have another 40K ballots out in Fulton plus some in Cobb?

  • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 10:33 pm

    A couple more precincts in from Fulton. Ossoff 50.3%

  • Greyhound April 18, 2017 at 10:38 pm

    Are we expecting the precincts in Fulton to be noticeably smaller than the ones in the rest of the seat? Because if not, we’re looking at a good 80,000 more votes.


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

  • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 10:47 pm

    Fulton holding everyone in suspense . . . . .

    • aggou April 18, 2017 at 10:49 pm

      I’ve never understood why certain places take so long to count. This is absurd.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 10:58 pm

        One night isn’t absurd. California takes like over a month to count.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • TexasR April 18, 2017 at 10:59 pm

          Over a month? I think New York still has precincts out from 1960!


          Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
          #KeepFreeTradeGreat

          • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 11:01 pm

            You mean Nixon still has a chance??!!!! 🙂

            • TexasR April 18, 2017 at 11:05 pm

              Wagner clearly stole the election for Kennedy! 😉


              Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
              #KeepFreeTradeGreat

              • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 11:09 pm

                Let’s not leave Khrushchev off the hook! 🙂

                Hacking Nixon’s email probably cost him a couple of mid-western states.

      • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 11:04 pm

        Buzzfeed folks have gone home.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA April 18, 2017 at 11:07 pm

        Ballot boxes are still stuck in traffic heading to election HQ.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

        • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 11:13 pm

          Are you sure another highway didn’t collapse?

          • Jon April 18, 2017 at 11:14 pm

            Actually a portion of I-20 in DeKalb county belted up a few days ago; but that shouldn’t be on the route ballots take from the portion of Fulton in GA-6 to the county election office.


            45, M, MO-02

        • Jon April 18, 2017 at 11:13 pm

          That’s odd, looking at google maps traffic view the only major problem is I-85 / GA-400 being shut down.


          45, M, MO-02

  • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 10:50 pm

    Handel should get Deal, Karen Price, Rubio, Romney maybe Cruz, and others to publicly campaign for her.


    R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 10:54 pm

      Pence


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

    • hfcon April 18, 2017 at 11:05 pm

      Rubio won all 3 counties involved during the primary, so he’d be the natural choice. All of the GA GOP leadership would also help. Keep the election about standard GOP issues and Handel should win. Also, the longer the campaign goes on the more opportunities for a novice candidate like Ossoff to make mistakes.


      PA-02

      • indocon April 18, 2017 at 11:10 pm

        Summer election helps us also.

        • fzw April 18, 2017 at 11:31 pm

          Does it? You’d think more Republican leaning people would be on vacation (less likely to take advantage of early vote like Dem vacationers), and college students will be home for the summer.


          NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
          #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

  • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 11:00 pm

    If my estimates are right, first round vote totals may approach those of the 2014 mid-terms.

    How unusual is that?

  • RogueBeaver April 18, 2017 at 11:03 pm

    Gray concedes. https://twitter.com/BobGrayGA/status/854529942318612481


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

  • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 11:06 pm

    Ultimately, only five candidates got over 1% of the vote. Makes you wonder what some of the other candidates were thinking.

    • segmentation_fault April 18, 2017 at 11:11 pm

      Why did Judson Hill resign his senate seat to run for this?

      • SwingStateRepublican April 18, 2017 at 11:46 pm

        I think Georgia has a resign to run law.


        20/R/NC-4(College)/VA-7(Home)
        Social liberal, fiscal conservative

  • aggou April 18, 2017 at 11:08 pm

    From DDHQ… “Fulton County is having problems updating its tallies into state servers, and won’t update reporters on site…yet”

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