GA-06 Special Election Liveblog #3

AP. DDHQ.

1:32 ET – With only 25 Fulton precincts to go, Ossoff is still at 48%. The AP is calling it for a runoff and so am I. See y’all in June! Goodnight everybody!

1:14 ET  – Fulton dropped some more precincts and Ossoff ticked down to 48%.

12:10 ET – It appears that Fulton County had an error with one of its electronic voting cards. They’ve now found and corrected the error. After a big dump, Ossoff is down to 49%. There are still 33 precincts outstanding, all from Fulton County.

11:12 ET – Fulton County is keeping us all in suspense, but I still don’t think Ossof makes it.

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101 Comments

  • hfcon April 18, 2017 at 11:16 pm

    In the GA-32 Senate special it looks like Kirkpatrick (R) and Triebsch (D) will make the runoff, though only half the vote from that area is in so far.


    PA-02

    • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 11:47 pm

      Thanks!


      29, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 11:21 pm

    It’s good that Ossoff isn’t winning 50%, but he might still be better than 50-50 to win a runoff.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • cer April 18, 2017 at 11:28 pm

      Perhaps, but if the GOP can unite quickly, he could be well under 50% that he will win the runoff.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • RRR April 18, 2017 at 11:30 pm

        Are you Sean Spicer?


        PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
        More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

        • cer April 18, 2017 at 11:33 pm

          No, but are you?


          Conservative first, Republican second!

    • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 11:29 pm

      He has to be considered to be the favorite at this point. Total Dem vote percentage tonight should exceed 49%.

      • GoBigRedState April 18, 2017 at 11:31 pm

        Still way too much of the vote out to predict final numbers.


        45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 11:36 pm

      We’re still not done counting. Ossoff basically got the entire D vote with the Rs divided. He’ll be getting close to his ceiling
      https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/854523967763341312


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 11:37 pm

        Turnout is usually lower in a runoff, which can help Ds here.


        29, M, R, NY-10

        • cer April 18, 2017 at 11:39 pm

          It also has a history in helping the GOP as well… However, there is no doubt that this is a wake-up call to the GOP.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

        • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 11:40 pm

          Yes, but the Rs will have one candidate and be able to properly boost her rather than squabble amongst themselves


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

        • Greyhound April 18, 2017 at 11:46 pm

          Oddly enough, we kind of had a GOP-Primary-’16 dynamic here. Everyone wanted to be the guy who got second to Ossoff, so everyone spent their time attacking everyone but Ossoff. We’ll have to see how this race develops, but I’m still betting on a Congresswoman Handel.


          R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

          • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 11:49 pm

            The 45 Committee spending heavily attacking the CfG candidate seems ridiculous now. The entire tone of the GOP campaigns was off-they’re all still campaigning like this seat is the same politically as it was a decade ago. Handel will need to start running like Comstock. Or at least a pro-life SEPA R.


            R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

            • segmentation_fault April 18, 2017 at 11:54 pm

              I thought the Islamophobic ads attacking Ossoff for working with Al Jazeera were really stupid.


              En Marche!

          • fzw April 19, 2017 at 12:01 am

            Eh. I would’ve agreed with you like 30 minutes ago, but the more I think about it I feel like Dem enthusiasm is going to reach a fever pitch now that Ossoff outperformed Hillary. And college kids will be home then coupled with Republicans on vacation being less likely to early vote than their Dem counterparts. And I don’t think it’s a given that Handel gets all the people who voted for other R’s. A tiny amount will vote for Ossoff out of spite, and a slightly larger amount will be less inclined to turn out again now that their candidate didn’t make it.


            Currently MO-5. From MO-3.

            • GoBigRedState April 19, 2017 at 12:04 am

              That’s an awful lot of assumptions made there.


              45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

              • fzw April 19, 2017 at 12:08 am

                It’s just as good a guess as anyone’s. Just laying out my reasoning. Regardless I wouldn’t call it anything but a tossup.


                Currently MO-5. From MO-3.

            • Republican Michigander April 19, 2017 at 12:06 am

              What I HOPE happens is that normal general election base Rs who did not vote at all in the special election get a wakeup call thinking “we could lose this” and then show up in the special runoff.


              MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

              • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 12:10 am

                Anyone who cares voted now. This is normal midterm turnout.
                Heated races always increase turnout.


                29, M, R, NY-10

              • Left Coast Libertarian April 19, 2017 at 12:26 am

                The reason why you lose this is that people don’t care enough to vote. They can find reasons to be disappointed in congressional Republicans/Trump and not bother. Democrats are the out party. When you don’t do anything you don’t disappoint.

  • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 11:28 pm

    Ten minutes into a speech claiming the second spot in the Sixth District runoff, Karen Handel hadn’t mentioned the words “Donald Trump.”


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • TheWizardOf144 April 18, 2017 at 11:30 pm

      I’m seeing on Facebook she was #NeverTrump.

      • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 11:47 pm

        Karen Handel is a conservative. Ideologically she’s probably like Barbara Comstock.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • cer April 18, 2017 at 11:50 pm

          She sure isn’t some country club Republican. Handel is a solid conservative.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

          • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 11:52 pm

            Comstock? Wasn’t she a lead zealot against Bill?


            29, M, R, NY-10

        • Republican Michigander April 19, 2017 at 12:00 am

          I haven’t seen any proof she was nevertrump and I’m not taking a Breitbart (not accusing you, but I don’t trust facebook news feeds) type’s word for it.

          What I do know is that she’s won statewide, is great on life issues, and is probably a good fit for that district.


          MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 11:32 pm

    The entire UK snap election-from triggering to candidate selection and vote counting and swearing in-will be completed before the runoff.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 11:43 pm

      Lol I know exactly which Twitter user you got this from…


      R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

      • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 11:44 pm

        There should be sanctions for these


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

        • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 11:46 pm

          I’m not complaining. I would like Moshe to finally follow me back though.


          R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

          • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 11:49 pm

            If I follow you now, then everyone will know my username. Though I don’t think it’s hard to find out. I didn’t know it was you though. I don’t remember the username. I have to make a search.


            29, M, R, NY-10

      • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 11:46 pm

        I copy paste from Twitter all the time and I’ve said that on here numerous times.


        29, M, R, NY-10

        • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 11:51 pm

          It doesn’t bother me!


          R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

          • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 11:56 pm

            Izengabe retweeted you.


            29, M, R, NY-10

            • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 11:57 pm

              Yup.


              R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

        • dpmapper April 18, 2017 at 11:59 pm

          Not everyone knows that, and those of us who do can’t tell when you are quoting someone and when you are making an original comment. Why is it so hard to just say who you are copying? Or just give a link to the tweet.

          • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 12:00 am

            Oh laziness….
            My original commentary isn’t hard to differentiate.


            29, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 11:34 pm

    One card out of hundreds created an error. They need to manually go through them and re-upload everything in #Fulton #GA06


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 11:39 pm

      Is the Clerk for Waukesha County now working for Fulton?


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

  • MosheM April 18, 2017 at 11:51 pm

    THEY FOUND THE CARD WITH THE ERROR #Fulton #GA06


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • SlippingJimmy April 18, 2017 at 11:54 pm

    LOL at all the resistance fighters on Twitter already claiming electoral fraud.

    Whatever gets more Dem dollars poured into this race…


    Republican, TX-22.

  • aggou April 18, 2017 at 11:55 pm

    Handel jumped

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 11:56 pm

    Massive dump. Ossoff below fifty with 48.7 percent


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

  • aggou April 18, 2017 at 11:56 pm

    Ossoff at 48.72 in Fulton now

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 11:59 pm

      The dump leaves much of the Fulton county vote left, and it knocked Ossoff down 7 points in the Fulton county vote totals.


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • indocon April 19, 2017 at 12:06 am

        What’s the over under, I say he ends up around 45 when it’s all said and done

        • cer April 19, 2017 at 12:07 am

          I say around 46-47%


          Conservative first, Republican second!

        • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 12:09 am

          There are 33 precincts left


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

          • cinyc April 19, 2017 at 12:10 am

            Plus mail-in absentees, perhaps, unless they were included in the last dump. The mail-in absentees in the other two counties were pro-Ossoff.

  • indocon April 19, 2017 at 12:07 am

    The Communist News Network was boldly showing Osoff %, it just vanished, what a shame less bunch of kooks.

    • RRR April 19, 2017 at 12:08 am

      This is not InfoWars Elections, but this is a strong warning. Watch your tone.


      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

  • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 12:12 am

    Even before the vote counting is finished, the Republicans combine to over 50


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

  • Tekzilla April 19, 2017 at 12:13 am

    LOL at how quick Trump took credit. My god.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • segmentation_fault April 19, 2017 at 12:14 am

      Oh lord


      En Marche!

    • fzw April 19, 2017 at 12:17 am

      I’m sure Handel is thrilled about him cranking up the spotlight on the race.


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.

      • MaxwellsDemon April 19, 2017 at 12:20 am

        Karen Handel is probably calling Marco Rubio right now and pretending as though him and Nikki Haley are actually the Co-Presidents of the United States

        • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 12:24 am

          Handel does need every Trump voter to turn out for her


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

          • Left Coast Libertarian April 19, 2017 at 12:33 am

            She’d prefer to get every Price voter. Trump got 160k votes. Price got 201k. Unfortunately, Tom Price can’t campaign with her.

            • Republican Michigander April 19, 2017 at 12:35 am

              ” Unfortunately, Tom Price can’t campaign with her.”

              Why not?


              MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

              • GOPTarHeel April 19, 2017 at 12:38 am

                He probably can but he has to be very careful about not violating the Hatch Act.


                R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

    • RRR April 19, 2017 at 12:19 am

      Low energy Jon Ossoff can’t finish the deal, but TRUMP always finishes. Sad!


      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 19, 2017 at 12:19 am

      lmao I love this guy


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Republican Michigander April 19, 2017 at 12:21 am

    Survive and advance. Jon Ossoff currently has slightly less than 89,000 votes which is in the high 40’s.
    To put that in perspective for a special election Rodney Stooksbury had 124,917 against the extremely strong Tom Price in the 2016 election. Price had 201,088 votes to also put things in perspective.

    Most people stayed home today. Most people stay home in special elections. That’s why these are so dangerous. The best organized team usually wins. Jon Ossoff won tonight at least to the point of being in a good position for the runoff since he was the best organized. The bad news if things hold true is that Ossoff is in a good position to win. The good news is that maybe this scared the R’s enough to get off their asses to go out and do what needs to be done. Get the base out to vote.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • segmentation_fault April 19, 2017 at 12:28 am

      But this was a very high turnout as far as special elections go. Almost as high as a midterm. Can’t compare anything (midterms/special) with presidential turnout.


      En Marche!

      • Republican Michigander April 19, 2017 at 12:34 am

        Right now the D’s are organized. I expect a high D base turnout in everything for awhile. (much like the R turnout for Scott Brown). R’s have to be prepared for that. I don’t know if they are or not. We’ll find out in a few weeks.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 12:30 am

      The open question is how many Republicans don’t care which R wins the primary and thus didn’t vote. But with all the hype, I think they chose a Republican and voted.


      29, M, R, NY-10

    • hfcon April 19, 2017 at 12:30 am

      Turnout looks like it’ll hit at least 44-45% or so in the district (it looks like 183k out of 415k registered voters right now with 16% of precincts still out). That’s awfully high for a special.


      PA-02

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 19, 2017 at 12:28 am

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/854544739361849345

    Nate Cohn estimates Ossoff will finish at 47.7%. That seems almost identical to Clinton and is broadly consistent with nobody changing their mind.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • segmentation_fault April 19, 2017 at 12:31 am

      It was 48.3 Trump – 46.8 Clinton


      En Marche!

      • GOPTarHeel April 19, 2017 at 12:39 am

        Two party vote share basically unchanged then. He outperformed Clinton to the same extent the Rs outperformed Trump.


        R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 19, 2017 at 12:39 am

        The GOP won by 1.5 in 2016, looks like they’ll win by 3 pts when this is over. Subtract the people who throw a temper tantrum because their preferred Republican didn’t win and we’re back down to 1.5 or so. Basically, I don’t think the national atmosphere has changed much from 2016. Which isn’t actually that great since it’s not like the GOP won the PV in 2016.

        Dems winning the generic ballot by 2.5 points seems like my median scenario for 2018.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 12:46 am

          Bob Grey endorsed Handel, and he was basically the TrumpTrain person. Optimistic we can unite around Handel


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

          • w920us April 19, 2017 at 12:49 am

            I’m almost wondering that with the intense national scrutiny this election is experiencing, any Republican who breaks ranks from party unity, would get crucified by Trump and others. I don’t see it happening.


            R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
            #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

            • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 12:50 am

              The GOP saw Estes was in trouble and sent in the heavy hitters to rescue him. This is how we should fight this race


              male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
              Rubio Republican

        • krazen1211 April 19, 2017 at 7:29 am

          Well, the GOP did not win the PV, but it won the PV in the median House district, and the PV in 10 Dem held Senate seats up in 2018 (6 of them very easily)

          We would be really lucky if the 2016 voting patterns hold. Obama won 237 Congressional districts in 2008, and the Dems won only 193 in 2010.

    • fzw April 19, 2017 at 12:53 am

      Or, and I’m just spit-balling here, it’s a sign that the Hillary Republicans are leaving the party. Downballot bleeding usually takes years to follow top-of-ticket numbers, but in this district at least, it took only five months.

      To the broader point, no, I don’t think it’s fair to say that given this result, things have stayed the same since November. We don’t have data points for the Obama-Trump areas of the country. This is only a Romney-Clinton data point.


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.

      • segmentation_fault April 19, 2017 at 12:56 am

        IIRC there were special legislative elections in rural IA/MN where Democrats outperformed Clinton by a lot.


        En Marche!

        • fzw April 19, 2017 at 12:58 am

          That supports my point that it isn’t fair to say the national environment’s the same as in November. But I still wouldn’t read too much into specials in terms of 2018 besides the obvious enthusiasm gaps.


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 19, 2017 at 12:57 am

        Oh, they definitely are. I don’t think the old patterns of downballot bleed are particularly relevant because politics have become so completely nationalized.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 12:29 am

    First thing to do in 2021 is for the Georgia legislature to drop the lower DeKalb portion of the district to Lewis’ seat


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

    • cer April 19, 2017 at 12:34 am

      Amen to that!


      Conservative first, Republican second!

  • prsteve11 April 19, 2017 at 12:37 am

    I still think that everyone needs to see this in perspective. If this were a 62% Trump district, it would be a disaster for the GOP, but it wasn’t. Ossoff raised obscene amounts of money (mostly out of state) and with all that and the energy, etc, he still couldn’t buy a win. Now the runoff will be a challenge but this is still a Republican-leaning district and the GOP will now have someone to rally around. Don’t forget that President Trump and other heavy-hitters weren’t able to come and campaign because the field was so ridiculously splintered. That will be totally different now. I’m optimistic for June.


    SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • GerGOP April 19, 2017 at 12:51 am

      I think we can say that “all money” came out from out of state. A meager 100k came from in-state donations, iirc.

    • hfcon April 19, 2017 at 1:06 am

      The significance of this though is that it confirms the shift in R-D numbers from 2012 to 2016 that puts a decent number of suburban GOP-represented seats in danger. A 1.5% overperformance on the 2016 Trump-Clinton result puts at least 25-30 GOP seats in play, which is enough to flip the House. And this is right in the honeymoon period of a new president while the economy is humming along.

      Another point to consider: Ossoff isn’t a Manchin-style centrist or someone with any name recognition before this election. He’s a pretty unabashed, inexperienced progressive. Better D candidates might elect to take the plunge in 2018 now based on what they’ve seen here.

      All that said, Handel is definitely the favorite in June for this seat and she’ll likely be able to unite Republicans along traditional partisan lines. But it will be interesting–as The Emperor points out above–to see how she deals with the varying GOP factions.


      PA-02

      • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 1:09 am

        We have to remember, this is a special election. Even at heavy turnout Ossoff couldn’t match the crappy vote total that Price’s challenger got in 2016


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

        • hfcon April 19, 2017 at 1:16 am

          Sure, but the Rs didn’t really motivate many more voters either proportionately then. This also means both parties have a lot of people who voted in 2016 but not in this special that they’ll try to turn out in June. We’ll see then if the R-D percentages shift (if they stay about the same, as I suspect, then more confirmation that this is a real partisan shift rather than just turnout differences).


          PA-02

      • prsteve11 April 19, 2017 at 1:33 am

        You make an interesting point. However, it’s also important to remember that incumbency strongly benefits the GOP in many or most of these seats as we saw with Tom Price. It’s not a sure fire guarantee of reelection but it helps more so than a newcomer. Additionally, there are some districts that swung strongly to President Trump. I think in all he won 230 House districts if memory serves? The GOP definitely needs to wake up to the Dems, I agree but just wanted to offer my 2 cents.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

        • hfcon April 19, 2017 at 1:45 am

          Yep, Dems will be on the defensive in their remaining rural-ish seats, especially in the Midwest, so it might all even out. And incumbency will be a big factor in both R and D defenses. But it looks like there are 23 Rs defending Clinton seats compared to only 12 Ds in Trump seats so Ds have a significant head start.


          PA-02

  • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 12:39 am

    Story of #GA06: Ossoff (D) won 77% of mail ballots & 62% of in-person absentees.

    But 3/4 of votes were cast on EDay & GOP won 58% of them.

    Wasserman


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • Republican Michigander April 19, 2017 at 12:53 am

      That tells me that D’s did a great job of early organization and that some of the campaigns stepped it up at the end, Handel’s most likely.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 12:52 am

    This race proves once more. Voters’ partisan affiliation is how they vote for president these days.
    All the “ancestral” stuff means nothing.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 12:58 am

    8 more precincts dropped and Ossoff dropped another 0.3%. 25 more to go.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • GerGOP April 19, 2017 at 1:00 am

      This is not really a great Investment for Dems. Sure, 8m in donations is easily available from all over the country, but it’s not sustainable.

      • hfcon April 19, 2017 at 1:11 am

        One thing the DK people were arguing tonight was that their early infusion of cash to Ossoff they propelled him to a clear frontrunner status and avoided a wasteful intra-party battle. Big $$ doesn’t necessarily “buy” elections, but it could help clear the field in future elections and this was definitely a case of the netroots pushing the various Dem orgs to back their preferred candidate and take this election more seriously than they might have had.

        Of course, if this means the Ds will nominate DK favorites in many future elections, that’s probably going to be music to the GOP’s ears in the long run.


        PA-02

  • cinyc April 19, 2017 at 1:02 am

    NYT/AP gives Ossoff and Handel their checkmarks. Time for a runoff.

  • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 1:28 am

    Taking ridiculously long.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • prsteve11 April 19, 2017 at 1:34 am

      I agree. It’s an embarrassment to Georgia, really.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 2:13 am

    We’re still waiting on Fulton.


    29, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 2:37 am

    All in. Ossoff ended at 48.1%.
    No movement with the last 25 precincts.


    29, M, R, NY-10

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