GA-06 Special Election Liveblog

AP  DDHQ

9:13 ET – This thread is getting a bit crowded. Please take the discussion to Thread #2

8:46 ET – The first few E-Day precincts are trickling in from DeKalb. Ossify is now down to 61% of the total vote.

8:42 ET – Fulton County’s early vote went 61% for Ossoff. He’s now at 62% of the early vote with Handel still in second place at 14%.

8:33 ET – The Cobb County early vote dropped. Ossoff got 57%, which brings him to 63% district-wide. Handel is still in second place.

7:56 ET – Ossoff won the DeKalb early vote with 71%, Handel in second with 11%

7:27 ET – Scratch that; the Clerk results are actually votes from Manassas and Manassas Park. Miller is winning Manassas and and Smith is winning (much more Hispanic) Manassas Park.

7:14 ET – While we wait for results in Georgia, Del. Jackson Miller (R) leads attorney Jacqueline Smith (D) 60-40 in the early/absentee vote in the special election for Prince William County Clerk of the Court in VA.

7:00  ET – Polls have closed in the hottest special election of 2017 so far.

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159 Comments

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 7:06 pm

    It begins
    I think Ossoff will get between 38% and 43%, with Handel or Gray getting around 17% for the second place shot


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

  • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 7:08 pm

    Ossoff 43-46, Handel 17-19 in second place. And off zo the runoffs.
    Agree with something o read on Twitter: elections in the us are too damn long, considering that the UK can hold entire Parliamentary elections in eight weeks.
    It’s hard to justify the amount of money that is being spent on a race like this.

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 7:11 pm

      This probably wouldn’t have attracted a sixth of the funds and attention had it not been declared ground zero for “The Resistance” BS


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

    • Jon April 18, 2017 at 7:25 pm

      In the UK, the parties select the candidates for the election.
      And in this case, all major parties are asking all incumbents (other than the handful of ones that already announced their retirement) to run again and in cases where they don’t hold the seat in most cases unsuccessful candidates in 2015. There’s also a vacant seat that had a byelection scheduled next month; most likely the candidates for the byelection will be asked to run in the general election for that seat.

      Basically it can be really fast for parties to submit lists for snap elections unless they are intending to punish some MPs by declining to select them.


      45, M, MO-02

  • Upstater22 April 18, 2017 at 7:09 pm

    The Cobb County Elections website says they will begin posting results at 7:45


    R, NY-22

  • rdelbov April 18, 2017 at 7:11 pm

    There are only county election boards to monitor tonight. I suspect AP and Ace have on the spot guys? I think Cobb might not realize anything to 7:45? Polls at two locations in Fulton county have extended voting hours due to earlier problems. My guess is that DeKalb county will be slow as well.

  • dforston April 18, 2017 at 7:12 pm

    It would be great if Ossoff gets like 48%… other Dems combine for >2%…. we go to run off… Dems dump millions more in run off and then lose.

    • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 7:13 pm

      Which Shows how dumb this system is, imho

    • cer April 18, 2017 at 7:13 pm

      No way…. I want Ossoff under 45%!

      • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 7:15 pm

        I want the results to be exactly like the RRH poll


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

    • Upstater22 April 18, 2017 at 7:17 pm

      I hope not. Over 50% for Dems with Ossoff way ahead would not bode well for Republicans for the runoff. It will keep Dems energized.


      R, NY-22

  • w920us April 18, 2017 at 7:14 pm

    Does anyone know What are the rules regarding blank and/or spoiled ballots regarding the 50% threshold?


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • BostonPatriot April 18, 2017 at 7:19 pm

      The wording of the statute is that it takes a “majority of the votes cast” to win in the first round, so yes, to me that would imply that any vote validly cast (including a blank ballot) counts toward the denominator.

      For the runoff, the statute refers to the candidate “with the greatest number of votes” as the winner, so you technically don’t need a majority of all votes cast to win the runoff. That’s further evidence that the statute is operating under the assumption that blank ballots should be counted in the denominator.

  • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 7:19 pm

    County clerk… Does this really need to be an elected position? County Exec, yes, but clerk

    • dforston April 18, 2017 at 7:21 pm

      Since we’re talking about elected offices that shouldn’t be… write down Coroner… not sure there’s an R or D way to do that

      • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 7:24 pm

        Lol, nice one.

        • Jon April 18, 2017 at 7:29 pm

          St Louis City voters just voted down a proposition to eliminate the all important position of recording (real estate) deeds in the recent election.


          45, M, MO-02

      • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 7:30 pm

        Well, in places like Chicago the elected D coroner moonlights as a Get Out the Vote coordinator


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

        • w920us April 18, 2017 at 7:36 pm

          LOL. Most counties in PA still elect a coroner. How did Philly Democrats allow this office to be unelected?


          R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
          #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

        • w920us April 18, 2017 at 7:38 pm

          I also love seeing these small counties or municipalities electing Cemetary Commissioners!


          R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
          #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

          • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 7:41 pm

            Richard Daley managing his voter rolls


            male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
            Rubio Republican

    • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 7:22 pm

      Well, they’re elected to prevent gaming of the courts due to bureaucratic biases.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • bluewahoo April 18, 2017 at 7:26 pm

      Elected constitutional officers for VA counties are Clerk of Court, Sheriff and Attorney. At least we aren’t electing coroners like some places…

      For the curious, John Frey, the Fairfax County Clerk of the Court, is the only county wide republican still in office in Fairfax. He won in ’15 and the terms are 8 years.

  • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 7:23 pm

    With no hard facts at hand, ABC analysts are hyperventilating over yuge turnout in one nuln precinct and lower turnout in a Trump precinct. Aha.

    • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 7:27 pm

      The CW has already been written: “Ossoff destroys all Republicans who are far behind in the teens, advances to the runoff with a commanding 4x % of the Vote”

      • cer April 18, 2017 at 7:30 pm

        People in the MSM really do need to calm down. If he ends up getting around 40% of the vote, that is nothing to brag about.

        • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 7:31 pm

          Anything less than 46% is a massive loss


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

          • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 7:35 pm

            We know that, but let’s see how it’s reported…

  • dforston April 18, 2017 at 7:37 pm

    about 10 minutes until first results

  • James April 18, 2017 at 7:50 pm

    https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/854481955798355969

    Osoff 71 Handel 10 in DeKalb early vote


    Let's Make America Greater

    • edtorres04 April 18, 2017 at 7:51 pm

      wow!!!

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 7:52 pm

      Heavily Dem area, most D’s would turn out early


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • James April 18, 2017 at 7:55 pm

        Pathetic totals for Republicans, especially the non-Handel bunch, makes me think ED vote may be even more heavily skewed republican. Looks like Republicans waited until the end with so many options


        Let's Make America Greater

        • cer April 18, 2017 at 8:01 pm

          The GOP will be fine…
          71 to 10 is nothing to panic over….

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 8:02 pm

          If not, it’s over. Ossoff is outrunning Clinton by 4 points, which would be hitting like 52-53%.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • segmentation_fault April 18, 2017 at 7:58 pm

        Romney won that portion of DeKalb in 2012

        • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 8:01 pm

          Still the early vote. We have all of the election day vote yet to come in.


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

        • Upstater22 April 18, 2017 at 8:03 pm

          Time to slow your roll, Dem troll. This is the early vote in an election Dems were motivated for and Republicans waited to decide which of their myriad of candidates to vote for. We are talking less than 10K votes total here.


          R, NY-22

          • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 8:07 pm

            He’s not trolling. He’s stating a fact. Be careful when accusing a user in good standing of being a troll.


            23, R, DC-AL
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 8:17 pm

            Hey, <10k votes was enough to coronate two winners in my district (8k and 5k respectively). 😛

            The person I voted for came in third with 2.5k?


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 7:55 pm

    Anybody have a good interactive results map?


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

  • cer April 18, 2017 at 8:12 pm

    Interesting, my webroot anti virus system just blocked me from getting into…. DDHQ…. might be an issue!?

    • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 8:26 pm

      I got some strange popups as well, so I stopped loading that page.

    • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 8:56 pm

      DDHQ told us they were expecting over 1 million page views tonight! So it’s probably just technical issues


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 8:18 pm

    Folks smiling and dancing at Ossoff headquarters per Buzzfeed live stream. They seem to like the results so far.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 8:19 pm

      My primary consolation is that the Republican House Majority is so utterly worthless, it’s not like Speaker Pelosi 2.0 Electric Boogaloo would be any worse. What’s the worst she could do? Prevent a repeal of Obamacare? Sabotage tax reform? Shut down the government?


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Manhatlibertarian April 18, 2017 at 8:18 pm

    This is like the Kansas CD race where the first results were from the heaviest Dem area and gave the Dem initally a big lead. It is no surprise Ossoff would lead in early votes from Dem leaning DeKalb, which Clinton carried by almost 20 points. Let’s wait until we get results from the other 2 more GOP counties and actual election day votes.

    • rdelbov April 18, 2017 at 8:21 pm

      Total early vote in DeKalb county was 11387 but only 9700 votes were cast? No apparently this is early vote only while the more R absentee votes have not been counted in this county. Most Democratic vote of the night has been counted 1st

  • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 8:19 pm

    To use a Ossoff-favored character’s catchphrase, I’ve got a bad feeling about this.


    R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

  • edtorres04 April 18, 2017 at 8:20 pm

    Based on the results from @conersen, Osoff is looking like he might take it:

    https://twitter.com/conorsen

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 8:22 pm

      Actually looks less bad than I expected. He’s beating Clinton in a few precincts and behind her in a few others. Which is preferable to running constantly ahead of Clinton by 5 points or so in each precinct.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • edtorres04 April 18, 2017 at 8:24 pm

        He actually is constantly ahead of Clinton because Conor Sen’s tallies don’t include the early vote. Those tallies only include ED.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 8:24 pm

          Oh, well it’s over then. Ossoff at 55% at least. Probably outside of the margin of error for all of the polls.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 8:25 pm

        If that’s just Election Day Vote on the printout though, then he’s beating her in some places in ED vote vs her total vote.

  • edtorres04 April 18, 2017 at 8:23 pm

    Cobb Early Vote: osoff at 57%!!! That’s pretty solid for him.

  • segmentation_fault April 18, 2017 at 8:24 pm

    The Failing New York Times is not adding Cobb precincts into their total vote total?

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 8:26 pm

    Only 21000? votes total? Weren’t the projections for at least 150000? If that’s the case then this is far from over


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

    • segmentation_fault April 18, 2017 at 8:27 pm

      The early vote was around 40,000. Fulton precincts are now showing up on NYT’s map but they’re not giving a total for all votes.

      • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 8:29 pm

        Then that’s at least 100000 election day votes if the projections for high turnout are true


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

  • segmentation_fault April 18, 2017 at 8:29 pm

    Total early vote

    DAVID ABROMS 0.71% 359
    MOHAMMAD ALI BHUIYAN 0.17% 84
    RAGIN EDWARDS 0.39% 198
    KEITH GRAWERT 0.18% 92
    BOB GRAY 6.88% 3,457
    KAREN HANDEL 14.13% 7,095
    ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ 0.05% 25
    JUDSON HILL 5.32% 2,674
    RICHARD KEATLEY 0.13% 63
    AMY KREMER 0.12% 58
    BRUCE LEVELL 0.23% 116
    WILLIAM LLOP 0.11% 54
    DAN MOODY 8.42% 4,230
    JON OSSOFF 62.00% 31,132
    ANDRE POLLARD 0.02% 8
    REBECCA QUIGG 0.18% 90
    RON SLOTIN 0.28% 141
    KURT WILSON 0.68% 340

    • fzw April 18, 2017 at 8:32 pm

      He probably won at least 10% of Republican primary voters then among early voters. The EV electorate was 41R-41D based on prior primary vote history.


      NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
      #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

      • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 8:36 pm

        More like 20+% percent of Republican voters. Ossoff’s EV percentage should be in the 62-65% range.

        What is happening?!

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 8:40 pm

          It’s clear to me that a certain kind of Republican is abandoning the party, which is doubly irritating because the inability of elected Republicans to ever get anything done is largely a result of their slavish devotion to that segment of the party. If the raison d’etre of the GOP is to protect the pocket books of people who would never vote for them (while savaging the rest of the country in the process), then it’s probably better that the Democrats win. They would be less terrible for the Republican Party than the Republican Party.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • indocon April 18, 2017 at 8:42 pm

            Agree with you. Trump majority was always contingent of keeping high white % in south which in turn depended on keeping these lower upper class white people on our side, well that does not seem to be the case. I don’t think you can totally extrapolate from this to northern burbs because these type of people already vote Dem there.

            • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 8:43 pm

              At this point, Ryan needs to go and be replaced with someone closer to Trump.


              male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
              Rubio Republican

              • SwingStateRepublican April 18, 2017 at 8:46 pm

                I think if that happens, this site will lose half of its Republicans, Paul Ryan and co. are what’s keeping me in the party. Trump won because enough suburban R’s held their nose to vote for him (not me).


                20/R/NC-4(College)/VA-7(Home)
                Social liberal, fiscal conservative

                • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 8:46 pm

                  I’m not saying this from an ideological perspective. Paul Ryan has just shown he can’t do the legwork of whipping votes


                  male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
                  Rubio Republican

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 8:48 pm

                  The GOP already lost everyone.

                  The GOP doesn’t win working-class whites (it just lost them by less in 2016). The GOP isn’t going to be winning upper-class whites. The GOP is nonexistent among minorities and that isn’t changing ever. The GOP ruling class is totally tone-deaf to the fact that almost nobody in this country willingly votes for the GOP – they only vote against the Democrats. Because the GOP has no agenda besides cutting the taxes of people who already hate them and torpedoing the services of people who then grow to hate the GOP.


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                • indocon April 18, 2017 at 8:53 pm

                  Which goes to VBKS’s point, lets just hand the keys to Pelosi and go home. Who will get screwed the most in that scenario are these same lower upper class white people abandoning us today.

                  • krazen1211 April 18, 2017 at 8:59 pm

                    Hot takes based on early vote are rather silly. Remember when the Democrats were crowing about the Florida EV….and that was almost 70% of the overall vote.

                  • StatenIslandTest April 18, 2017 at 9:00 pm

                    Oh cmon guys its one special election with the Dems having spent almost ten million. The GOP House majority is the hedge against an agenda way to the left of what we saw in 2009-10


                    31, Jersey City

    • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 8:33 pm

      Early in-person only right? Even so it’s looking good for Ossoff.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

  • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 8:33 pm

    1% of the vote is going to non-Ossoff Democrats.

    • segmentation_fault April 18, 2017 at 8:34 pm

      Since the race was technically non-partisan probably no-one knew they were Democrats

      • rdw72777 April 18, 2017 at 8:56 pm

        While I don’t disagree, the psyche of the early voter for an off cycle jungle primary who votes for someone that deep in the weeds is something that should be studied.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 8:34 pm

    Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
    Breaking: #GA06-wide, Ossoff (D) has won 62% of the in-person absentee vote. Most estimated he needed 61%-64% to have a shot at 50%.
    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/854492869062688769

    The combined Democratic vote is going to be over 50% at the very least, even if Ossoff doesn’t win outright.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 8:35 pm

      We don’t know yet if that was because the GOP voters took up too much time trying to decide between the 11 candidates


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

  • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 8:38 pm

    Disastrous so far. Hopefully this sends a huge wake-up call to the GOP.


    R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA April 18, 2017 at 8:39 pm

      Based on the KS-4 results, the Republicans are facing a suburban collapse.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 8:40 pm

      Probably won’t, everyone will devolve into finger-pointing and blame-shifting before a reverse 2010.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

  • cer April 18, 2017 at 8:40 pm

    Hopefully the GOP can keep him under 50%.

  • cer April 18, 2017 at 8:41 pm

    Folks before we all panic, nothing has been declared yet….

    Obviously the Dem will make the runoff, but still time for the GOP to do the same.

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 8:46 pm

    6 precincts in from DeKalb. Ossoff dropped 5 points total in his margin there


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

  • Manhatlibertarian April 18, 2017 at 8:46 pm

    According to Prof McDonald total early vote (incl absentees) is 56459. According to Decision Desk 53588 votes cast so far, which I assume are largely if not all early in person/absentee votes. Ossoff is doing better than I expected with the early votes, although I expected he would carry them. There must be a big primary day turnout that leans heavily Repub if Ossoff is to be kept under 50%. He is at 62% now, so for the rest of the night likely he will drop, but will he dip low enough to be below 50% is the question.

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 8:48 pm

    3 precincts from Cobb. Ossoff down 4 points from his EV % there


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

    • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 8:49 pm

      Hmm, the Times had it only DeKalb reporting ED.

  • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 8:48 pm

    9/220 In (all DeKalb)
    Ossoff down to 60.6%

    • Ryan_in_SEPA April 18, 2017 at 8:52 pm

      That is not great for Ossoff.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • RRR April 18, 2017 at 8:49 pm

    So, about the upper-middle class, white collar suburban districts about which I’ve been screaming from the mountaintops in reference to their unlikely rebound to even McCain #s the next 4-8 years, if ever…


    NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
    Scarsdale test conservative
    Reagan and Bush Made America Great

    • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 8:51 pm

      Futilely, yes, we remember


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 8:51 pm

      Yeah, the upper-middle class, white collar suburban districts who have been the only people in the entire country that the GOP agenda has catered towards…and who still won’t vote GOP.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • RRR April 18, 2017 at 8:52 pm

        Who have voted GOP for half of a century. TX-07, KS-03, IL-06, GA-06, TX-32, VA-10, NJ-07, NJ-11…


        NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
        Scarsdale test conservative
        Reagan and Bush Made America Great

        • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 8:55 pm

          Remember, these districts are probably diversifying with a lot of lower middle-class immigrants that would have normally settled in the inner cities.


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

          • RRR April 18, 2017 at 8:56 pm

            That’s some of the growth, sure, but not all of it. And, a lot of those people are moving into concentrated areas that are not in such districts. (GA-13, etc…)

            You’ve been optimistically assuring us, from where I’ve been baffled, that we’d see a GOP rebound in places like Fort Bend County. Not going to happen.


            NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
            Scarsdale test conservative
            Reagan and Bush Made America Great

            • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 8:58 pm

              I’ve been saying that if Trump reassures Republican skeptics back to the fold, he’ll win back traditionally Republican voters that were suspicious of him


              male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
              Rubio Republican

              • TexasR April 18, 2017 at 8:59 pm

                No, you’ve been bullishly guaranteeing it. How’s it working out so far?


                Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                #KeepFreeTradeGreat

              • RRR April 18, 2017 at 9:01 pm

                No, you’ve singled out Fort Bend for a strong rebound. Don’t let your cornea turn rose-colored.


                NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
                Scarsdale test conservative
                Reagan and Bush Made America Great

          • indocon April 18, 2017 at 8:57 pm

            If there is one thing Republicans can do with trifecta, put a plug to the spigot of immigration, legal an illegal, 1924 style.

      • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 8:56 pm

        Well no, a tax cut on the top .5% of earners won’t even benefit 15% of the people in those districts. We have a donor-controlled cargo cult around comedic distortions of supply-side economics.


        R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 8:53 pm

      I guess party coalitions change. Remember when Mondale won Westmoreland County, PA and Ashtabula County, OH?


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • RRR April 18, 2017 at 8:54 pm

        Some places are growing, some are shrinking. Call me up when Westmoreland and Ashtabula grow. The Sunbelt is the future of American growth, and many of its expanding, large states will be the Democrats’ under the current GOP trajectory.


        NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
        Scarsdale test conservative
        Reagan and Bush Made America Great

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 8:56 pm

          The Sunbelt is largely growing because of the massive migration of minorities into it (from both the North and other nations) – Georgia in particular is a huge recipient of African-Americans from California/the Northeast.

          Surely being the party of rich white suburbanites will attract those voters.

          On a semi-related note, I wonder how much of the “reddening” of the North and “bluing” of the South is just the Second Great Migration.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • RRR April 18, 2017 at 8:59 pm

            As GOPTarHeel noted above, rich ≠ upper-middle class. I’m not suggesting policy be handcrafted for Bronxville, Atherton, Mercer Island, Winnetka, and Rye residents, but pursuing protectionism and anti-growth policies is a massive long-term mistake. There are plenty of middle/upper-middle class engineers, actuaries, and teachers in GA-06 living in $300,000-$600,000 houses and driving used Camrys who have voted GOP for decades and will not touch it right now.

            And, mind you, the GOP’s current approach is not right for attracting neither upwardly-mobile, working-to-middle class Northern minorities nor middle/upper-middle class Asians moving into places like the Atlanta suburbs.


            NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
            Scarsdale test conservative
            Reagan and Bush Made America Great

        • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 8:59 pm

          We need an agenda that appeals to more than upper income whites, because they aren’t really growing either. But we have to appeal to them.


          R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

          • TexasR April 18, 2017 at 9:01 pm

            Name one that won’t repel them. I’ve yet to see you do so.


            Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
            #KeepFreeTradeGreat

            • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 9:04 pm

              Name one that will get an EV majority. I’ve yet to see you do so.


              23, R, DC-AL
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 9:06 pm

                Or a PV majority. Tons of Republicans love screaming about how we have to support amnesty for illegal immigrants because of the tremendous growth in the Hispanic population, but almost all of them conveniently forget that fact as soon as we move onto economic policy.

                I don’t think Ayn Rand sells well in any Spanish-speaking nation.


                I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • RRR April 18, 2017 at 9:07 pm

                Pyrrhic victories are a very real thing. Becoming strictly a rural and downscale suburban party will absolutely doom the GOP long-term presidentially, and it will screw the GOP in the shorter term in the House.

                If districts like GA-06 fall, the national “natural Republican gerrymander” falls as well.


                NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
                Scarsdale test conservative
                Reagan and Bush Made America Great

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 9:15 pm

                  Being a strictly upscale and suburban party does that too. It’s what the California GOP did. And it failed massively.

                  The inevitable misery for the GOP is that nobody has an answer to how to attract minority voters. And GOP “thought leaders” blithely blunder around under this totally false notion that immigrants are “natural conservatives”. There’s a remarkable similarity between the Bolsheviks and Republicans on this belief: “oh this xxx group (Russian peasants or immigrants) will start loving us and shed their ‘false consciousness’ as soon as we properly inform them about us!”.

                  A coalition of downscale whites and the minority of minorities that are socially conservative can tread water at 50%. The coalition of upscale whites and the even smaller minority of minorities that are economically conservative turns the entire country into California.


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 9:15 pm

                  Appealing to upscale voters doesn’t seem to work very well, either. Romney did it very well and ran up the numbers in these types of places. He still lost. Furthermore, the charge wasn’t directed at you.


                  23, R, DC-AL
                  Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 9:06 pm

              Wut.

              I have literally have it in my bio for like a year. Theresa May-style, One-Nation Conservatism.


              R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

              • TexasR April 18, 2017 at 9:07 pm

                I’m implying that such a strategy won’t succeed in not repelling such voters.


                Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                #KeepFreeTradeGreat

                • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 9:21 pm

                  Lets give Randian economics a go! Works so well for the libertarian party! It’s also not based on a ridiculous understanding of human nature and social dynamics!


                  R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

                  • TexasR April 18, 2017 at 9:22 pm

                    Pretty sure I haven’t suggested that.


                    Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                    #KeepFreeTradeGreat

            • cer April 18, 2017 at 9:07 pm

              We just need to expand our base without losing our core conservative one…. I know easier said than done, but not impossible.

              • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:09 pm

                People want results. They won’t care the means if someone delivers them results.


                male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
                Rubio Republican

                • TexasR April 18, 2017 at 9:09 pm

                  By that definition, the Democrats must have done astoundingly well in 2010 given all the policy victories they enjoyed in 2009-10.


                  Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                  #KeepFreeTradeGreat

                  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:12 pm

                    Did I say policy victories? The economy was in the toilet in 2010. I said results. Basically, a good economy, less crime, batter quality of life, and military victories. That’s what the people want


                    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
                    Rubio Republican

          • RRR April 18, 2017 at 9:05 pm

            The American political system, of course, requires diverse coalition building. But, stringing together a coalition of voters in population declining areas was never a wise long-term decision.

            I’ve never been much of a Rubio fan, but he would have been right for laying constructive, future-oriented groundwork.

            Oh well.


            NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
            Scarsdale test conservative
            Reagan and Bush Made America Great

            • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 9:07 pm

              I spent a year freaking out about Trump and boosting Rubio so I obviously agree. But Rubio was too tied to stale orthodoxy. Trump has no principles, only (often wrong) instincts.


              R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

              • RRR April 18, 2017 at 9:10 pm

                I know.

                I will note that I didn’t have a problem with Trump’s coalition as much as his approach.

                Like, remember how I backed Scott Walker originally? I laid out the Trump coalition almost perfectly to a Yale poli sci Ph.D. candidate friend over pizza in New Haven in December 2014. I was totally fine with going that route because Walker wouldn’t have caused this educated, white collar revolt. That said, I picked the incorrect executor of it.


                NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
                Scarsdale test conservative
                Reagan and Bush Made America Great

                • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 9:15 pm

                  I had literally the same conversation with a professor and some classmates in 2014 about Walker. Ironically that professor now works in the White House.


                  R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

      • Republican Michigander April 18, 2017 at 11:03 pm

        This is a response to everybody here talking about growing areas, downscale ares, etc. Everyone is missing a few of key points.

        1. We’re the minority. By we, I mean those who follow politics closely.
        2. A pure Paul Ryan type of campaign will fail badly, much like Romney did. A pure working class based campaign will also fail. If there is no coalition, we’re all screwed.
        3. While some ideology issues are sometimes deal-breakers to a lot of people, outside of a couple of issues, it’s overrated.

        I don’t want to put words in someone’s mouth, but people in neighborhoods like RRR’s liked Rick Snyder. He won some of those areas. Snyder (before Flint issue) also won Macomb County. Trump in a lot of ways ran a similar campaign to Snyder, but more populist. The STYLE was much different, but the premise was similar. “I’m not a politician. I’m going to get things done.” He won in different areas, although won BIG in Macomb County.

        Voters across the country are tired of the status quo and want things to get done. If that doesn’t happen, we’re going to have a very long 2018. Those who flip the bird to working class voters willing to consider R’s are f’ing idiots. Those who flip the bird at traditional R upscale suburbs are also f’ing idiots. (not to be confused with unwinnable upscale areas with insufferable snobbish leftists who are unwinnable).

        As far as the special election goes, the rules are always thrown out in low turnout elections. That doesn’t mean anything beyond today (and possibly the run-off if there is one).


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Jon Henrik Gilhuus April 18, 2017 at 9:00 pm

    Count faster, dammit! I got work tomorrow!


    The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
    - P.J. O'Rourke

    • cer April 18, 2017 at 9:02 pm

      Welcome to GA vote counting. They are imho one of the slowest.

    • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 9:03 pm

      Stuck at 9/210 for quite some time…

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:05 pm

    9 precincts from Cobb reported, Ossoff collapsed 3 points in the total numbers


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

  • Manhatlibertarian April 18, 2017 at 9:05 pm

    It is 9 PM. the polls closed at 7PM and we only have 9 out of 210 precincts reporting according to AP, none in Fulton. Why is it taking so long? Were there long lines that had to be admitted inside at 7PM and that slowed things down?

  • TheWizardOf144 April 18, 2017 at 9:06 pm

    I know freaking out like this is cathartic, but guys, Ossoff is dropping like a rock with the election day vote coming in. Here’s the thing…most of our voters won’t vote early. Not “do not”, “WILL not”. It’s not “the right way to do it”. It’s cheating. It would never occur to our voters to vote early. It feels dishonest to them.

    Maybe Ossoff wins. Maybe I’m wrong.

    We will see.

  • prsteve11 April 18, 2017 at 9:06 pm

    If memory serves, Georgia is notoriously slow in its counting. We could be in for a long night.


    SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • cer April 18, 2017 at 9:10 pm

      Ridiculously slow! One of these day GA will get its act together. However, probably not in my lifetime. 😉

  • Left Coast Libertarian April 18, 2017 at 9:09 pm

    Other four Dems at 1.0%. It could matter.

  • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 9:09 pm

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T9gbq8BANoatjNTf68wPw9s_JXZYh2xRy9naqC5tWh8/htmlview?sle=true#

    Neat tracker for Ossoff benchmarks in each precinct. Refresh regularly.


    R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:11 pm

    Big dump from DeKalb. Ossoff is barely ahead of Hillary numbers


    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
    Rubio Republican

  • Jon Henrik Gilhuus April 18, 2017 at 9:11 pm

    ANd he’s down to 58% with 9% counted.


    The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
    - P.J. O'Rourke

    • edtorres04 April 18, 2017 at 9:13 pm

      He’s at 56.7% with 20% of precints reporting

      • cer April 18, 2017 at 9:17 pm

        The GOP can definitely catch him!

  • Manhatlibertarian April 18, 2017 at 9:11 pm

    Ossoff at 57.8% according to DD. 66665 votes so far. Looks like Handel likely 2nd at 15.2%

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:15 pm

      Most of the vote is from DeKalb so far, and Ossoff is now barely ahead of Hillary’s percentage


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • indocon April 18, 2017 at 9:22 pm

        What this all means is that the Trump presidential vote is settling as a norm, GA6 might be a 50:50 district going forward. Also, we gotta take out Colin Peterson’s of the world to make up inevitable losses in these swing districts.

  • w920us April 18, 2017 at 9:12 pm

    Ddhq has him down to 56.7% now.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • indocon April 18, 2017 at 9:12 pm

    Time to get rid of this early voting nonsense. Make Sunday an election day and be done with it. Not to many other industrial countries have early voting.

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 9:15 pm

      No, make election day a holiday


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

  • cer April 18, 2017 at 9:13 pm

    AP: Ossoff down to 58% with 18/210 reporting.

  • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 9:16 pm

    41/210 56.7%
    67% of DeKalb done, he’s at 58.5% vs Clinton 57%

  • Manhatlibertarian April 18, 2017 at 9:21 pm

    Interesting according to AP, 29/43 of DeKalb precincts reporting, 12 out of 51 Cobb, and 0 out of 116 for Fulton. DeKalb is the most Dem county and has the most precincts in. Going to be a long night watching to see if Ossoff hovers over 50% or drops below.

    • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 9:28 pm

      Russians continue to tinker, Ossoff down to 53.9%

  • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 9:21 pm

    48/210 Ossoff down another point to 55.8%

  • CO Conservative April 18, 2017 at 9:27 pm

    Assuming 53,298 more votes, for a hypothetical total of about 155,000, Ossoff would need to take 43.1% of the remaining ballots to break 50.0%.

    • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 9:28 pm

      Turnout is going to be above 155k though.


      R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

      • CO Conservative April 18, 2017 at 9:31 pm

        That would obviously be good. I’m guessing he drops just below 50%.

  • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 9:37 pm

    Bob Gray just completely collapsed here. He’s barely in fourth!


    R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

    • RRR April 18, 2017 at 9:37 pm

      Sad!


      NY-07 via IL-09 and PA-07
      Scarsdale test conservative
      Reagan and Bush Made America Great

  • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 9:38 pm

    We lost the PWC Clerk race: https://t.co/pLpV2TwKal


    R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

  • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 9:43 pm

    Cobb dump:
    Ossoff down to 50.8%

  • GerGOP April 19, 2017 at 12:19 am

    Seems like I could be right with my prediction. Oo

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