Political Roundup for April 18, 2017

Check back for our GA-6 liveblog starting at 7p ET. Until then be sure to check out our preview of the race if you have not already.

Congress:

ND-Sen: Firefighter David Peyer (D) is launching a bold progressive challenge to Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D). We enthusiastically support Peyer’s efforts to make sure North Dakotans don’t send a Trump-appeasing DINO back to the Senate.

TN-Sen: Attorney and Iraq veteran James Mackler (D) will run for the seat of Sen. Bob Coker (R). It is unclear how serious a candidate Mackler will be but his launch is getting some significant press.

OK-1: Tulsa DA Tim Harris (R) has entered this race for the seat of Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R), who has indicated he will honor a term-limit pledge and retire in 2018 (or sooner if he is picked to become NASA director). Harris joins businessman Kevin Hern (R) and nonprofit exec Andy Coleman (R) in the primary.

OK-2: Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R) created a really bad soundbite when he said that it was “bullcrap” that constituents pay his salary. Mullin’s deep-red rural seat isn’t vulnerable in a general but this is the sort of thing that could create primary trouble, especially since Mullin has also indicated he is likely to break a term-limit pledge.

Governor & Row Offices:

CT-Gov: Two Democrats are moving forward on runs to succeed retiring Gov. Dan Malloy (D). Malloy admin consumer affairs secretary Jonathan Harris (D), a former West Hartford Mayor, is stepping down from the cabinet to consider a run, as is federal prosecutor Chris Mattei (D). Should they enter Harris and Mattei would join Middletown Mayor Dan Drew (D) in the primary; many other Democrats are considering.

CT-SoS: SoS Denise Merrill (D) has not announced whether she will run for Governor, but that isn’t stopping a candidate from floating his name to succeed her should the seat become open. State Rep. Matt Lesser (D) has announced he will explore a run for SoS, but only if the seat is open.

MN-AG: Attorney Harry Niska (R), who serves on a local board in Eagan, has become the second Republican to enter this race, joining ex-State Rep. Doug Wardlow (R) in the race. Unlike his rivals, Niska seems to have no compunction about taking on AG Lori Swanson (D), who is seen as likely to vacate the seat to run for Governor, but who would be a prohibitive favorite for a fourth term if she were to run again. State Rep. John Lesch (D) and ex-State Rep. Ryan Winkler (D) are in the race on the Dem side, but only if Swanson vacates the seat.

NE-SoS: Former elected state school board member Bob Evnen (R) will run for the open SoS seat. Evnen has already announced support from Sen. Deb Fischer (R) and Reps. Jeff Fortenberry (R) and Don Bacon (R), and thus looks like the front-runner for the post. State Sen. John Murante (R) is the other candidate commonly associated with this race.

OK-AG: Appointed AG Mike Hunter (R) will seek a full term in his post in 2018. The decision was somewhat in doubt as Gov. Mary Fallin (R)’s first appointee to a Row Officer slot, Labor Commissioner Melissa McLawhorn-Houston (R), had announced she would be a placeholder that would not seek a full term.

Local Races:

Seattle-Mayor: Ex-Mayor Mike McGinn (D) will seek a comeback to the office he lost in 2013, taking on incumbent Ed Murray (D). McGinn is a far-left moonbat with hipsterish tendencies, while Murray is an establishment progressive. McGinn’s term as mayor was widely characterized as an incompetent mess, while Murray has done a better job on competence issues. But McGinn performed better than expected in 2013 with the city’s far-left electorate, and Murray has also been recently hit with a lawsuit alleging long-ago sexual abuse, so this race could be very competitive.

Rochester, NY-Mayor: Monroe County commissioner Tony Micchie (R) will run for Mayor of Rochester, giving Republicans a serious candidate for an office they haven’t seriously contested in living memory. Incumbent Lovely Warren (D) is facing County commissioner James Sheppard (D) and former news anchor and State House candidate Rachel Barnhart (D).

Washington, OR-CE: Washington County Exec Andy Duyck (R) announced last week that he would not run again for the top job in this large suburban Portland county, leading Tualatin Mayor Lou Ogden (R) to enter the race. Though Washington County is nowadays deep-blue, it has a GOP-friendly history and officially nonpartisan elections.

International:

Britain: Prime Minister Theresa May (Conservative) announced a snap general election for June 8 to clear the air over the Brexit.  This moved was done with the support of Cabinet.  The Leader of Her Majesty’s Most Marxist Opposition Jeremy Corbyn (Old Labour) supports the move as well.

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139 Comments

  • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 7:30 am

    Aw, shamlet… You did away with the open thread and thereby my gloomy comment. Do you know how Long It takes me to write such a comment ob my tablet? XP

    • shamlet April 18, 2017 at 7:32 am

      Sorry! Serves you right for commenting at 7AM, lol.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 7:36 am

        1pm. 😛
        I’m currently driving back to my university which means eight hours by train so i had nothing better to do than to wait for new thread to come up. ^^

    • Upstater22 April 18, 2017 at 7:34 am

      You were glooming on the UK election?


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 7:39 am

        Only semi. I only said that in my opinion, Tories will under and Labour overperform as Remainers will ne more inclined to vote and opt for Labour. Even though It makes little sense.

  • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 7:37 am

    I’m so excited about this GE. Theresa May is going to destroy Labour. Also poor SOTS for doing those constituenciy previews! I’m guessing there will never be a seat reduction now.


    R/NC-4.

    • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 7:40 am

      The Torymander wont bei in effect?

      • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 7:48 am

        Nope, hasn’t gone through yet. The current lines will be used despite the enormous disparities in population. May will win a 50 seat majority at a minimum anyway.


        R/NC-4.

    • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 7:59 am

      I’m a bit befuddled that Corbyn supports the election. Why not wait and hope for May to get mauled in the Brexit negotiations?

      • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 8:05 am

        Because no self-respecting opposition party can refuse a general election.


        R/NC-4.

        • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 8:09 am

          If the polls Show you 20± Points behind you’d think that an instinct of self- preservation would kick in.

          • cer April 18, 2017 at 9:02 am

            The Conservatives are absolutely going to destroy Labor. Only question, how many seats will they pickup!?


            Conservative first, Republican second!

            • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 9:08 am

              See above. There is a growing backlash in Europe which will hurt the Tories. Not enough to seriously diminish their Victory, but It will ne noticeable. Imho.

              • Jon April 18, 2017 at 6:37 pm

                Has anyone run a models on what:
                A : Number of seats would be with the more recent polls, which have Labour down by 20 points
                B: Labour “only” down 15 points (all taken from Conservatives)
                C. Labour down 10 points (all taken from Conservatives)


                45, M, MO-02

                • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 6:49 pm

                  The Fabian Society did a study months ago that predicted Labour would get 140-200 seats (I’d err on the high side of that) in the first scenario.


                  23, R, DC-AL
                  Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • Greyhound April 19, 2017 at 5:40 am

          “Self-respecting opposition party” is not a term I would use to describe Labor these days.


          R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

      • Jon April 18, 2017 at 6:34 pm

        So am I; the route May is going requires 2/3rds support from Parliament, which probably wouldn’t happen if Corbyn said he was neutral and made it a “free vote” given the current polls.
        Even if Labour overperforms the public poll result, they still appear headed to losing 50+ seats; so self preservation ought to have caused him to say something like “while I’m sure Labour would crush the Tories if an election were to occur this June, we are taking a principled stand that terms of parliament should be five years except in extraordinary situations such as the PM resigning or a motion of no confidence passing.”


        45, M, MO-02

    • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 9:10 am

      Why would the restricting not go into effect for the next general? The Tories would benefit from these changes, so why would they not move forward with the “Torymander”?

      • Red Oaks April 18, 2017 at 9:53 am

        Because the entire redistricting process is an extremely slow one and if the Conservatives win a large majority there will be a lot of Tory MPs who won’t want to see their seats eliminated.


        MI-03 Castle voter who now says Give Trump a chance

        • GoBigRedState April 18, 2017 at 12:05 pm

          Yes-extremely slow. There’s a couple of consultation periods and public hearings that must be completed, and then they consider revisions before a final report is presented to Parliament. The whole process will not be completed until next year.


          45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants #RIP27

          • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 12:13 pm

            Also the House of Lords seems certain to drag their feet on this (though seat reduction was in the manifesto I think). Does the whole process get restarted by a general election anyway?


            R/NC-4.

            • GoBigRedState April 18, 2017 at 12:50 pm

              It could, especially if Labour pulls off the unexpected and wins, but considering the whole process has already been started, stopped and then restarted, I think assuming May gets returned with a majority they will keep the process going.


              45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants #RIP27

    • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 11:20 am

      Yeah, I spent hours and hours on each one of those! Goddammit! I’m torn between excitement that I get to see a Labour pasting this year and annoyance that I’m probably going to have to redo my series.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • jncca April 18, 2017 at 12:54 pm

        I did my own personal extensive analysis in an Excel doc so I feel your pain!


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • Jon April 18, 2017 at 6:48 pm

        You’d have had to make changes in a month or two anyway when the commissions announce the (mostly minor) changes they have made after looking at the comments from the initial round; so you can wait until both the revision and the snap election occurs before revising the 600 seat map.

        Now drawing the current 650 seat map for the snap election would have to be from scratch with only a few weeks to complete it.


        45, M, MO-02

  • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 7:48 am

    OK2: Mullin is someone who has really underwhelmed me. I thought that he could actually make an impact when he arrived in Congress, but the only thing i can remember about him is reading an article about how he is leading a bipartisan workout group.

  • Upstater22 April 18, 2017 at 7:50 am

    NY corruption update

    Former Broome County Executive Debbie Preston (R) was charged with 3 counts of official misconduct. Each count carries a maximum sentence of one year in prison. The charges stem from her stint as Town of Conklin supervisor when she used a Town credit card for personal expenses (which she reimbursed…after being found out). Preston lost re-election in 2016 to Democrat Jason Garner, due in large part to these pending charges.

    http://www.wbng.com/story/35168427/former-county-executive-preston-charged-with-official-misconduct


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 7:57 am

      You’d think that NY runs out of corrupt politicians eventually…

      • TexasR April 18, 2017 at 8:50 am

        Corrupt NY politicians are like a Hydra: every time you cut one head off, two more grow back in its place!


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        Be careful what you wish for

      • rdw72777 April 18, 2017 at 11:22 am

        Conklin is about the size of a shoebox I’m surprsised anyone from there even cares…small towns are so full of “minimalist corruption” it’s usually part of the job.

      • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 1:29 pm

        Lol! Corruption is why people get into politics in New York!


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • bluewahoo April 18, 2017 at 8:06 am

    VA Q1 fundraising reports are coming in. Here’s a pretty extensive rundown of most statewide and house races.

    http://bluevirginia.us/2017/04/virginia-1q17-campaign-finance-numbers-start-rolling

  • cer April 18, 2017 at 9:40 am

    Any signs that Gray might be surging some!? I don’t really see it, but we’ll know more by later today.


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 9:47 am

      Please no. I want Handel to win.

      • SlippingJimmy April 18, 2017 at 10:05 am

        Handel’s fine by me, though ideally I’d want Hill or Moody to advance to the runoff.


        Republican, TX-22. Fiscal conservative, pro-gun/5-month ban social moderate.

  • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 10:17 am

    Ossoff was pressed about bis residency issue this morning in CNN. It apparently became rather awkward.

    • Republican Michigander April 18, 2017 at 12:05 pm

      That explains Ronna Romney McDaniel’s comment about if Jon Ossoff can’t vote for himself, why should anyone else.

      I don’t know if carpetbagging is as big of an issue in Metro Atlanta as it is in most of Michigan, but living outside the district can’t help his cause.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 12:14 pm

        It isn’t really an issue anywhere in the metro South honestly. These areas are growing so fast and have so few true natives that I can’t imagine it matters at all.


        R/NC-4.

        • rdelbov April 18, 2017 at 12:32 pm

          It is a negative for Ossoff or any candidate for that matter. Not living in a district in a negative for any pol. Residency matters. Saying that somewhere between 6 to 10 of our current congressman in DC did not live in their districts. Thad Cochran, Pat Roberts, Evan Bayh and Richard Lugar are excellent examples that residency questions can even dog a US senator or a US senate candidancy. It can be overcome-look at Hillary or Mast or McCain or whoever had to deal with residency issues.

    • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 1:34 pm

      I don’t live in the district because I am crashing on my girlfriend’s couch while she finishes college:
      https://youtu.be/rTjz5dDmWjw


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 1:36 pm

        If he’s crashing on her couch, I question whether she’s his girlfriend.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 1:39 pm

          LOL! You are right. I should have said pad not couch.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 1:40 pm

            Or is it at his girlfriend’s dorm room?


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • Ryan_in_SEPA April 18, 2017 at 2:28 pm

              We should be questioning on whether he is legally allowed to live in the apartment or dorm room.


              31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

              • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 2:36 pm

                Yeah, based on what we talked about last week, it’s not the optics of the “Shacking up before marriage” as much as a 30 year-old who’s still sorting his life and relationship out and might be moving back to the district or who knows what job she might get or if that’s more important than me and my future in politics or whatever’s next? Marriage? Family? Congress? Living with parents? Buying a home? Staying closer to the city? Which is all well and good for a 30 year-old who’s still sorting out his future but might not be voters’ top choice to Representative them in Congress.

                • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 2:46 pm

                  I also thought this was a weird answer: “As soon as she finishes her medical degree, I’ll be 10 minutes up the road back in the district I grew up.”
                  So once she finishes school, you’re outta there and moving back home? Or once she finishes school you’ve decided that you are both moving back to the district? He could have said “Once she finishes, we’ve decided we want to make our future 10 minutes up the road in the district.” But the way he said it makes it sound like “I’m leaving, you coming?”

                  • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 3:14 pm

                    “I’m leaving, you coming?”

                    I chuckled, but yeah, that is a very millennial way of communicating.


                    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 3:30 pm

                  The bigger issue is that with the $8.3 million Ossoff has raised he could have hired someone to write him a better answer to this question. All he had to say was “I am not a politician. Before I decided to run I never looked at where the politicians gerrymander the lines to protect their own interest. I have lived in this part of Georgia (or whatever the local name for this area is) all my life. This is my home and I am not going to apologize because the vested interest drew squiggly lines that moved where I currently live a few blocks out of the district.”


                  Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                  • pstchrisp April 18, 2017 at 3:41 pm

                    Maybe in Maryland or PA, but Georgia’s lines aren’t that bad, and GA-6 is pretty compact. He’d probably get away with it, but it could be mockable if a map is shown and the apartment or dorm where he lives was never in GA-6.
                    Your larger point that he gave a unprofessional answer is quite valid.

                    • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 3:58 pm

                      Come on! This is the district:
                      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia's_6th_congressional_district#/media/File:Georgia_US_Congressional_District_6_(since_2013).tif
                      To most voters that would qualify and an ugly drawn and non-compact map.


                      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                    • shamlet April 18, 2017 at 4:00 pm

                      @Izengabe – can’t tell if you’re being facetious or not… GA-6 is to me about as non-gerrymandered as they come. The northeastern 3/4 of that border is just following county lines.


                      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

                    • Greyhound April 18, 2017 at 4:03 pm

                      @Izengabe What? How? The only non-compact section of that seat is drawn to follow the Fulton/Deklab-Gwinnet County line, and invites the GOP to quickly hit back that he can’t even recognize where the county lines are in his own metro area!


                      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

                    • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 4:05 pm

                      I know that. You know that. But if you throw a map like that up 99.99% of voters will say look at how crazy that map is drawn with all those squiggly lines! It looks like a giant upside down screaming mouth.


                      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                  • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 4:09 pm

                    Regarding the district, I take it the DeKalb portion is the most Democratic of the three county portions in the district?
                    Georgia Republicans have a lot of re-configuring to do for the next round of redistricting. If Georgia gains a seat, maybe they should create a new D seat in Atlanta to shore up everyone else


                    male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
                    Rubio Republican

                    • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 4:18 pm

                      Yes, the DeKalb portion is the most democratsic part of the district. However, GA is unlikely to gain a new district after the 2020 census.


                      23, R, DC-AL
                      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                    • Upstater22 April 18, 2017 at 4:25 pm

                      Yes, the DeKalb portion went Clinton by 18 or 19 points and Price won it only by 5. It is right around 50% white, so the question in my mind is going to be if minorities who are normally absent during non-presidential elections will show up to vote against Trump.


                      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

                    • krazen1211 April 18, 2017 at 4:33 pm

                      A new d seat in Georgia is wholly ridiculous. Just spread the R vote better. 10-4 is punching below weight when NC is going 10-3 this decade and maybe 11-3 next decade.

                      It’s pretty easy. Athens goes into GA-14. South portions of Cobb into GA-09. Spread the metro districts outward.

                    • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 4:36 pm

                      @Krazen
                      You have GA-09 and GA-14 flipped.


                      23, R, DC-AL
                      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                    • Upstater22 April 18, 2017 at 4:54 pm

                      @krazen I’m assuming most of the growth in Georgia is going to be in Atlanta and suburbs. The rurals have not kept up, if not lost population. We will need to be proactive in defending both the 6th and the 7th. We will probably need the Dem districts (4, 5, 13) push north with the more securely Republican 3rd, 10th, and maybe 11th/14th pushing into their previous territory. The key will be maintaining the black majority districts to courts satisfaction.


                      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

                    • Jon April 18, 2017 at 7:00 pm

                      In the Atlanta area, both GA-4 & GA-5 (e.g. downtown and inner suburbs) are underpopulated and will need to gain population. GA-13 (Southern suburbs/exurbs) is probably somewhat overpopulated.

                      GA-3 & GA-7 (Atlanta exurbs) are probably overpopulated.

                      GA-6 (Northern suburbs) is probably about the right population, but if either GA-4 or GA-5 take in D territory here then by chain reaction it would naturally push out.
                      In any case there’s no need to concede an additional Atlanta area seat to Democrats; and probably won’t need to be until it’s possible to make 4 CDs in the Atlanta area that would all be 50%+ AA by VAP.

                      Yes, all four South Georgia seats are likely underpopulated, which GA-02 probably needing to gain the most between these four.


                      45, M, MO-02

                    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 7:19 pm

                      The two Inner Atlanta seats need to be moved north and pick up the really blue portions of the northern suburban seats (the ones where there are a lot of minorities and bleeding from central Atlanta). As for the 13th, it could probably bleed any marginal areas to the rural seats


                      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
                      Rubio Republican

                  • krazen1211 April 18, 2017 at 4:40 pm

                    Blah, thanks. I posted that from memory. I recall local concerns dominating the last redistricting, in that Nathan Deal and some legislators wanted a district for Hall County. They have that now.

        • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 1:56 pm

          And a liberal Democrat isn’t the kind of person to argue he’s saving himself for marriage, lol


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

      • Republican Michigander April 18, 2017 at 5:48 pm

        Jon, are you crashing on her couch because you are in the doghouse for running?


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • CyHawk April 18, 2017 at 11:28 am

    Rare interview with candidate admits he doesn’t live in the district he wants to represent. In runoff, Republicans should pound away at the residency issue, as well as tie him to his time as an aide to Rep. Hank Johnson, who, like Ossoff, is an ultra liberal. Johnson also is infamous for his nutty warning about the island of Guam tipping over due to overpopulation.

    • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 11:36 am

      I’m relatively bullish about our Chances in the runoff, especially if wr get Handel tonight. Do it, GA, dann it

      • StatenIslandTest April 18, 2017 at 2:47 pm

        What is it with Dems and out of district special election candidates? If you all recall the utterly pathetic David Weprin did not live in his district in his race to succeed Carlos Danger.

        With Trump improving and a decent field of GOP contenders I have this at lean R in the general.


        31, Jersey City

  • RogueBeaver April 18, 2017 at 11:33 am

    AL-SEN: Ivey moves it up. Primary Aug. 17, runoff Sept. 26, GE Dec. 12. http://governor.alabama.gov/news/press-releases/governor-ivey-moves-us-senate-special-election-to-adhere-with-state-law


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • GerGOP April 18, 2017 at 11:38 am

      Re, Ivey: I could use wiki, but Im sure we have people who will also Provide historic fun fact… Is Ivey the oldest serving gov atm?

      • shamlet April 18, 2017 at 11:41 am

        Jerry Brown.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • shamlet April 18, 2017 at 11:42 am

      Good. That was the spirit of state law anyway. It would have been so much better for everyone had Bentley appointed a placeholder and scheduled it for this year – Strange would have won anyway without the ridiculously bad optics.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • shamlet April 18, 2017 at 11:44 am

        Though scheduling it for 8/15 is STUPID beyond belief. AL has municipal elections the very next week, so a bunch of people in cities like Birmingham and Mobile will have two weeks of voting in a row! Why she couldn’t figure out how to co-locate those two is beyond me. It also means the runoff will be a week before municipal runoffs as well.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

        • rdw72777 April 18, 2017 at 12:04 pm

          Gee I wonder why she didn’t want to schedule it the same week as voting in the major municipalities.

          • shamlet April 18, 2017 at 4:49 pm

            It makes very little sense. It’s a primary so the risk of high city turnout isn’t a meaningful issue from a partisan standpoint. If anything co-localizing would help Republicans in the municipal races seeing as the odds of Dems having a hotly contested primary are basically zero.


            R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Alton April 18, 2017 at 1:16 pm

      Does Ivey merely want to “uphold the law” despite the estimated $15mil price tag, or do you think there’s someone who wants to run against Strange now that (A) Bentley is gone, (B) the ’18 gubernatorial race is now a lot shakier with Ivey in the picture, and (C) it’s a 2017 election, meaning certain officers such as U.S. Reps. wouldn’t have to give up their seats? It could really be the former, but since (B) and (C) will open up the primary field, would it hurt Ivey (esp. in ’18) if Strange only had to face a couple of C-listers and Some Dudes? If it’s the latter, who are potential candidates (Byrne, Zeigler, Boozer, Cavanagh, Palmer?) and would the incumbency set by Bentley help or hurt Strange? Sorry for the multitude of questions – just thinking out loud!


      R-MI

      • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 1:18 pm

        Maybe she’s hoping Byrne goes for this race instead of AL-Gov?


        R/NC-4.

      • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 1:38 pm

        I think this is all about Ivey. She wants to differentiate herself from Bentley. So one of the first things she does as Governor is to undo a decision that Bentley made that looked like a corrupt deal. Its a brilliant PR move on her part that costs her nothing and only has political upside for her.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • shamlet April 18, 2017 at 11:40 am

    CO-Treas: State Rep. Justin Everett (R-Littleton) is in. http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/articles/lawmaker-to-seek-treasurers-post


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet April 18, 2017 at 11:40 am

    KS-Treas: Brownback appoints State Sen. Jacob LaTurner (R) to Estes’s post. https://twitter.com/KansasGOP/status/854358029894025216


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 12:04 pm

    ICM/Guardian Snap Poll on UK General Election voting intention: Con: 46% (+2) Lab: 25% (-1) LibDem: 11% (+ 1) UKIP: 8% (-3) Green: 4% (n/c). Voters support the early GE by a 55/15 margin.


    R/NC-4.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA April 18, 2017 at 12:33 pm

      So if UKIP collapses any further the Tories could possibly win an outright majority of the popular vote. Insanity.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

      • jncca April 18, 2017 at 12:56 pm

        I think a decent number of the UKIP voters would sit out (or go back to the BNP) if UKIP collapsed, so I don’t think Tories over 50% is possible without drawing from 1 of the 2 other traditional parties.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 1:17 pm

          It isn’t possible because British polling ignores Northern Ireland, for obvious reasons. That’s roughly 3-4% of the vote that isn’t counted in the polls. But yeah the Tories can’t realistically gobble up the entirety of UKIP without bleeding support to the LibDems anyway. On the other hand if may starts hinting that the real reason she is going to the polls is to get a governing majority that doesn’t include her own mini-Freedom Caucus of hard-right Brexiters, she’ll revive UKIP’s fortunes somewhat.


          R/NC-4.

  • Daniel Surman April 18, 2017 at 1:20 pm

    MN-AG: The Niskas worked for years in the 6th congressional district. His wife used to chair the 6th district GOP, where they supported Bachmann in her runs. It’s that heavily engaged party background that’s fueling this run, where people have asked him to run in previous cycles.

    MN-8: Mills is considering again. https://twitter.com/StewartMillsMN/status/854059388147040256

    TX-3: Another candidate defers to Van Taylor, as Collin County Judge Keith Self declines to run. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-politics/2017/04/17/collin-county-judge-keith-self-opts-race-replace-sam-johnson?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1492492530

    HI-2: Buzzfeed writes up a Gabbard town hall with lots of questions about Syria. https://www.buzzfeed.com/mbvd/hawaii-shows-aloha-for-tulsi-gabbard-at-town-hall-despite?utm_term=.kuLe8n8o3#.bmmVxQxml


    R, TX-14

  • Greyhound April 18, 2017 at 3:16 pm

    Polls keep creeping in favor of May in the UK:
    https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017_guardian_campaign_poll1_april18.pdf
    48-23 might be the largest majority yet seen in a British Poll. At this point the Tories are easily looking at a post-WWII election high with these #s.


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • Mayor Perk April 18, 2017 at 3:17 pm

      What’s the high water mark? Thatcher in ’83?


      30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

      • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 3:28 pm

        Yes. Post-WWII, the high-water mark is Thatcher in ’83 with 397. For the past 100 years, the bar (and I think the all-time record) is Stanley Baldwin (Con) in ’31 with 470.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Greyhound April 18, 2017 at 3:31 pm

        Yup (for seats at least), at 397. 1955 and 49.7% is their record for % of the overall vote, but that was when the UK was essentially a rigid 2-party system and the UUP in Northern Ireland counted as Tories.


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 3:20 pm

      Well, we still have seven weeks to go. There’s no doubt in my mind that the Tories will win handily, but numbers go up and down during a campaign. I’d much rather this be the final poll than the initial one, but I’ll take it.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 3:31 pm

        I think the LibDems could take a significant chunk of the hard-remain vote from Labour, which does have to walk somewhat of a line not to bleed working class voters


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

        • Greyhound April 18, 2017 at 3:43 pm

          The thing is, that really doesn’t get them many seats. Remain voters tend to be concentrated in unwinnably safe seats. It will probably help them in Southwest London, maybe a few rural seats in the South (though there aren’t many where the LibDems are in realistic striking range anyway), but that’s about it.


          R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

        • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 3:51 pm

          Well, yeah, but the numbers show they’ve already bled a lot of them. Multiple polls show the Tories leading narrowly in even the poorest income brackets. I wouldn’t be surprised if the LibDems picked up several hardcore Remain seats in London from Labour.


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Tekzilla April 18, 2017 at 4:12 pm

    Crazy to see David Nir and Brandon (DDHQ) at Buzzfeed doing Special Election coverage. How do we get Shamlet on there too?


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • shamlet April 18, 2017 at 4:17 pm

      Unfortunately most of that stuff isn’t even an option for me because I need to be zealously protective of my real name. It’s still 5 more years before I apply to residencies but I don’t want my political activities coming up to residency directors that might google me.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 4:21 pm

        @Shamlet although if you gave your real name you could have an amazing career as a professional pollster and political analysis!


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 4:23 pm

          Somehow I doubt that pays as well as the insane medical/bio stuff Shamlet studies…


          R/NC-4.

          • shamlet April 18, 2017 at 4:31 pm

            Well for the next 5 years at least it would probably pay a heck of a lot more! My main reason for not wanting to do this stuff as a career is my love for science and not wanting to deal with the majority of the people who make their living in politics. I find it hard enough to deal with MDs’ egos sometimes…


            R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    A fun open thread topic (or just a thread topic): Transplant the UK party system to the US. Which Democratic-held US House seats would go for the Tories? (The Westchester and two LI Dem seats are obvious contenders there, probably some of the whiter NorCal/Silicon Valley seats, all the affluent suburban seats would be safe holds). Which Republican seats would go to Labour? (WV, KY, Bill Johnson’s seat?) Would the LibDems win anywhere?


    R/NC-4.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 4:58 pm

      The whiter NorCal seats are filled with Lib Dem-types, not red Tory voters. Upscale Democrats don’t really fit into the Tory coalition when the Lib Dems exist as an option.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 6:02 pm

        Ehhh I don’t know. The Tories win seats in a London that are the equivalent of the whitest areas of Manhattan that Clinton won by 50+ points. The Quigley seat in Chicago would be competitive. Dold’s seat wouldn’t even be a contest. On the other hand we’d lose some energy extractive areas.


        R/NC-4.

    • jncca April 18, 2017 at 5:12 pm

      It’s weird because (unless I’m wrong) Labour’s strength has always been cities and in particular they do much better with White blue-collar city dwellers (and inner suburban voters) than the Democrats currently do. But the US’s cities are much more diverse and we don’t really have cities that vote GOP, so there’s not much to pick up there.

      Yeah, I’d imagine anywhere that was D+ in the 1990s but has trended GOP would be Labour but I’m not sure that’s more than a dozen seats, most of them in Appalachia. In fact it might just look like the PVI map circa 1984: GOP dominance in the suburbs (with some LibDems), Dems do much better in Appalachia.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 5:48 pm

        That’s true. All the little cities that get outvoted by rural territory in Republican seats would be large enough for their own constituencies in the UK. (I.e. Kenosha, Akron, East St. Louis.) I also wonder if some of those weird anciently-Republican areas in the Southeast like Eastern TN, Northwest NC would have been LibDem seats.


        R/NC-4.

        • Son_of_the_South April 18, 2017 at 6:04 pm

          They might have in the past, but I doubt that East Tennessee, Northwest North Carolina, South Central Kentucky, North Central Alabama and the Ozarks would vote for the LibDems today.


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • Republican Michigander April 18, 2017 at 6:06 pm

            British Libdems strike me as the opposite of what Parson Brownlow country would support.


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

          • GOPTarHeel April 18, 2017 at 6:17 pm

            Not the ultra-remainer LDs of today no, but up until 2015 a large portion of their support was in culturally isolated areas with strong Methodist traditions. Tim Faron is a fairly conservative Christian in his private life and a surprising number of LDs opposed gay marriage legislation.


            R/NC-4.

    • BostonPatriot April 18, 2017 at 6:49 pm

      I think the Tories might hold seats like NY-12 (especially if it had less of Queens) and IL-05. Big-city wealthy voters are a Tory base constituency and these areas’ recent support for Bloomberg and Rauner suggest they’d be blue if the UK’s political culture were imported.

      The Tory base would be the Acela suburbs and traditional GOP areas of the Midwest, Plains, and Mountains. Something like NJ-11 or IL-14 might be the prototypical seat the party leader gets assigned to.

      Labour would be on a 20-year downswing as it lost the South. It would still control the urban northeast and industrial Midwest.

      I could see the Lib Dems as either a West Coast, ecotarian party that competes with the Tories in the upscale areas of the West and Labour in the downscale areas. This version of the Lib Dems would hold Pelosi’s seat, for example. Conversely, I could also see those voters in the Labour fold, and the Lib Dems being more of a rural populist party with traditional footholds in the GOP areas of the South and the Lutheran Farmers triangle.

      If the US were the UK I think the story of the last generation of politics would have been the South’s shift from solid Labour to a fourth party, loosely allied with the Tories but with a more nationalist and overtly religious platform.

      • shamlet April 18, 2017 at 6:54 pm

        I would imagine a more religious version of UKIP would probably dominate the south in that scenario.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • GorrestFump April 18, 2017 at 4:41 pm

    People waiting up to an hour to vote in Roswell, GA. I wonder if these people knew they could vote early..

    https://twitter.com/michelleinbklyn/status/854367946625384448

    • krazen1211 April 18, 2017 at 4:53 pm

      These kinds of anecdotes seem worthless. It seems like every random twitter post from every random precinct claims ‘high’ turnout.

      Trump is getting involved again. I wonder if that’s better or worse than the Obama strategy of sitting around while his congressional party falls into ruin.

      • rdelbov April 18, 2017 at 5:36 pm

        How about real numbers?

        http://www.mdjonline.com/neighbor_newspapers/northside_sandy_springs/turnout-steady-so-far-in-district-special-election/article_10e4aab0-2443-11e7-ab4f-0f821ef602db.html

        This precinct as 33% turnout in the afternoon? Georgia turnout was 68% of registered voters in 2016. Not sure if this includes early voting numbers? Maybe turnout will top 150K and be closer to 180K?

        • dforston April 18, 2017 at 5:40 pm

          Yea…. 150k-180k is what I think it will be…. about half of midterm.

          • rdelbov April 18, 2017 at 6:32 pm

            311K in 2016 Presidential year(unknown number of non-votes in this race). 2014 mid term was 210K. So 155 to 160K would be 50% of President or close to 75% of mid term numbers.

            Back of envelope numbers or guess

            120K–D numbers will be around 50%(Ossoff still short of 50% himself)
            140K D numbers will be around 45%(Ossoff over 40%)
            160K then D numbers will be under 45% and Ossoff will closer to 40%
            Over 160K then GOP will showing some good numbers–better then I thought a few days ago.

        • Manhatlibertarian April 18, 2017 at 6:29 pm

          Interesting that it is mentioned several times in the article that there were people who wanted to vote who actually lived in CD 11 and didn’t realize they were not in CD 6 anymore. Not clear how many, and if the “CD 11” people might lean Dem of Repub.

    • The Emperor April 18, 2017 at 5:03 pm

      Roswell is a pretty Republican part of Fulton


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

    • dforston April 18, 2017 at 5:26 pm

      We’ve learned in the past, anecdotes of voting lines predict nothing.

    • Upstater22 April 18, 2017 at 5:33 pm

      One immutable truth of politics: anecdotes about long lines at polling stations mean bupkis.
      That said, by my calculations, Price won the Roswell precincts by 30 and Trump won by 8.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • RRR April 18, 2017 at 6:27 pm

        Price is from Roswell, FWIW.


        NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Scarsdale Test conservative
        Victories can be Pyrrhic

  • GorrestFump April 18, 2017 at 5:42 pm

    Marist did a poll of sports fans Trump JA.

    http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us170323_MCC_HBO/HBO%20Real%20Sports_Marist%20Poll_National%20Complete%20Survey%20Findings_April%202017.pdf

    Football fans: 37/53
    Baseball fans: 39/51
    Basketball fans: 28/62
    Hockey fans: 42/50
    Tennis fans: 32/61
    NASCAR fans: 50/38

    • dforston April 18, 2017 at 5:46 pm

      Didn’t realize hockey had such conservative fans.

      • Republican Michigander April 18, 2017 at 6:03 pm

        “”Didn’t realize hockey had such conservative fans.””

        I live less than an hour from “Hockeytown, USA” (Detroit – but more accurately Detroit suburbs). While hockey fans are largely in either the upper Midwest (Minnesota and Michigan especially), Colorado, or Massachusetts, they are also overwhelmingly white and largely middle to upper middle class folks who are down to earth.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • BostonPatriot April 18, 2017 at 6:52 pm

          Hockey fans also skew more heavily male than most sports. At least in Boston a large number of women are at least casual fans of the Pats and Sox, but a bar during a Bruins game will be 80/20 men if not more. So there could just be a gender gap at work as well.

      • fzw April 18, 2017 at 6:53 pm

        It doesn’t really surprise me at all. In fact, I’m surprised that he’s not in positive territory among hockey fans. Like MR said, it’s a predominantly white fan base, and I’d guess a lot of their fan base comes primarily from 2nd, 1st, and 3rd ring suburbs, in that order. In St. Louis at least, the Blues are also well known for marketing a ton of their apparel/hats in mossy oak, much moreso than the Cardinals do and the Rams ever did. So take that for what it’s worth, but that would suggest a more conservative base to me.


        NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
        #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

    • dforston April 18, 2017 at 5:47 pm

      So on a scale of most liberal to most conservative,.
      Basketball fans: 28/62
      Tennis fans: 32/61
      Football fans: 37/53
      Baseball fans: 39/51
      Hockey fans: 42/50
      NASCAR fans: 50/38

    • Republican Michigander April 18, 2017 at 5:51 pm

      Their generic score was 37/54

      The football one surprised me, although that might be due to race.
      Tennis and basketball doesn’t surprise me in the least.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • SwingStateRepublican April 18, 2017 at 5:57 pm

      Tennis probably had the biggest swing from Romney to Clinton. Tennis is popular in wealthy Sunbelt suburbs which had biggest swings, Atlanta suburbs, Orange County, San Diego, Houston, Dallas.


      20/R/NC-4(College)/VA-7(Home)
      Social liberal, fiscal conservative

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 5:57 pm

        There’s also this weird and uniformly left-wing Serena Williams cult. You see lots of racially motivated/racially tinged internet attacks on people she plays.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • kewgardens April 18, 2017 at 6:34 pm

          Wonder why golf was not included. The sport would definitely skew conservative.

          • rdelbov April 18, 2017 at 6:47 pm

            As a golfer even nearly all of my misses are to the right!! I can affirm that most golfers seem conservative-most but not all.

            Saying that I am trying hard to strengthen my golf grip (a strong grip is good in golf) -trying to turn my left shoulder all the way back and finish!! Strike that finish pose. If anything my misses today was to the left as I was over compensating to avoid going to the right. Wait a minute too much information.

          • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 10:02 pm

            I wished they polled WWE fans


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • edtorres04 April 18, 2017 at 6:09 pm

      How would people know about this before the polls close?

    • Izengabe April 18, 2017 at 6:21 pm

      After getting the early insider information on our GA-6 poll I was tempted to place a bet but since I was uncertain of what the insider trading rules were with regards to a market like this I figured I better play it safe an pass so as to not end up like Martha Stewart!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 18, 2017 at 6:26 pm

        Pretty sure there’s no such law, because there are somehow betting markets for WWE matches, which apparently WWE employees love “betting” on.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Manhatlibertarian April 18, 2017 at 6:58 pm

    According to Prof McDonald the final early in person/absentee vote through 4/17 is 56459. In 2016, although Trump beat Clinton in Ga 6 by about 1.5% on election day alone he beat her by 5.3%, which again tends to indicate that the actual voters today will likely lean GOP and not give Ossoff over 50%. Meanwhile a couple of days ago 4 Express Poll machines were stolen from a Cobb County precinct managers vehicle; these machines are not the actual voting machines but computers that poll workers use to check in voters and check off those who cast ballots. They have been replaced. But I’m sure if Ossoff doesn’t get 50% there will all sorts of inventive conspiracy theories in left wing Dem circles.

    http://www.electproject.org/

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