Political Roundup for April 19th, 2017

In case you missed it last night, Democrat John Ossoff got 48% of the vote in the GA-6 special election, narrowly missing the cutoff to win the seat outright. He will face Republican Karen Handel, who got 20%, in the runoff election in June. Now, onto today’s news!

President:

Immigration: Trump is taking his first steps towards reforming America’s immigration system, specifically the H1-B system where companies can petition for specific immigrants to be granted access to the country to work for them. He issued an executive order today that is probably more symbolic than anything else, most likely because I doubt it’s possible for him to push anything through Congress that would actually reduce immigration.

North Korea: So, it seems like there was some confusion about that carrier group Trump claimed was heading up to the Korean Peninsula. I’m still not entirely clear what was happening here, but it does not help Trump’s negotiation stance that he’s apparently not up to date on where his own carriers are.

Congress:

AL-Sen: With the date for the special election for this seat moved up (see story below), it looks like holder-of-the-most-badass-sounding-name-in-the-Senate Luther Strange is going to get a primary challenger. Strange hasn’t been able to shake accusations that he was appointed to this seat as a quid pro quo from former Governor Robert Bentley, who Strange was investigating at the time of his appointment. Strange’s prospective challenger, Del Marsh (Dammit Southerners, why do you guys get all the politicians with cool names?), is the current Senate Pro Tempore, and would be able to mount a serious challenge to Strange.

HI-2: Tulsi Gabbard, probably the most mavericky Democrat in Congress right now, has faced a lot of national blow-back over her Pro-Assad stances, including doubting whether or not he actually used chemical weapons on civilians. However, she is still gathering considerable support back home in her district, where she’s made quite a name for herself in her 4+ years in Congress.

MN-8: Stewart Mills, who came close to picking this seat up for the GOP in both 2014 and 2016, is considering making a 3rd run for the race. No word yet if he’s going to go back to his long-hair look for this attempt.

State & Local:

AL-Sen Special Election: Newly ascended Governor Kay Ivey has moved up the date of the special election for Alabama’s Senate seat to an August Primary and a December General. Former Governor Robert Bentley had scheduled it for election day 2018 in a curious yet legal move that created rumors that he was intentionally trying to help Senator Strange keep the office by dragging out the special for as long as possible. Oddly enough though, the dates selected are 1-week off of some important municipal elections in Alabama, so it’s curious why she picked those specific dates.

CO-Treasurer: State Rep. Justin Everett (R) has announced he is going to run for this open seat, setting up a competitive general election with fellow State Rep. Steve Lebsock (D). Everett is kicking off his campaign by promising to reform the state’s pension system.

KS-Treasurer: Governor Brownback has appointed Republican State Senator Jacob LaTurner to fill the now vacant post of State Treasurer after the previous officeholder, Ron Estes, won the recent KS-4 special election. LaTurner has been a reliable Brownback ally so this makes sense from a political perspective, but it also opens up his Senate Seat, and in the crazy world of KS primary politics that means that it could be filled by the sort of closet-progressive-running-as-a-“Republican” candidates that are surprisingly widespread in Kansas politics.

NY-Corruption: A former NYS county executive is being investigated for corruption (Debbie Preston, of Broome County). I’d make a joke about how in other news the Pope is Catholic, but honestly, the idea that Pope Francis is secretly an atheist out to destroy the Catholic Church from within is probably more likely than New York getting a handle on its corruption issues at this point.

VA-Fundraising #s: Blue Virginia has a nice rundown of the fundraising totals of most of the statewide and local candidates of note here.

Other:

UK-Election: I’ve hammered this point home for months, but it’s still kind of staggering to look at how bad the polls are for Labor. This ICM/Guardian poll released yesterday has the Tories up 48-23 on Labor, a popular-vote margin that is literally unprecedented in modern British polling. If Labor got every single LibDem and UKIP vote from this poll, they’d still be down 5 points to May’s Conservatives. This will be the first real test of the strength of Labor’s hold on its Northern White Working Class seats, which have historically provided the party with a large electoral “cushion” against poor poll numbers but who are the exact profile of the places that voted for Labor in 2015 and Leave in 2016, so we’ll see if May’s more Populist-flavored Conservatism can win them over.

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129 Comments

  • GerGOP April 19, 2017 at 7:31 am

    Ossoff ended up right where I thought he would, but faaaaar above where I hoped he would. This ain’t pretty. I’m still relatively optimistic about Handel’s chances in the runoff, but this is way to close for comfort and he has a very realistic shot at this.

    • rdelbov April 19, 2017 at 8:04 am

      Ossoff did better then I thought he would. Saying that with the GOP actually being to focus on turnout I am hopeful for a win in June.

      • rdelbov April 19, 2017 at 8:29 am

        Relative turnout numbers? 2016 21.65% of CD votes came from DeKalb and it was 22.86% this week. Cobb was 31.24% last year but a decent 32.02% this week. The state senate race may have helped Cobb out. The difference all came from Fulton county where the relative turnout (overall % of vote) went from 47.11% down to 45.10%. So we can see where Handel needs to move the needle.

    • andyroo312 April 19, 2017 at 8:36 am

      Yeah, I didn’t see Ossoff getting as high as 48 percent in Round One. I suspect he wins in Round Two.


      MA-7

      • cer April 19, 2017 at 8:55 am

        Handel will win in round 2 by 52% to 48%.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • Tekzilla April 19, 2017 at 9:11 am

          It’s going to be close. I think it probably comes down to 3 things…

          1. Where is Trumps approval in 2 months
          2. Can Democrats wield the Komen hammer in the right way?
          3. Can Republicans make the Residency issue stick?

          I’ll venture an early guess of Ossoff 51-49 since he overperformed last night.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • Left Coast Libertarian April 19, 2017 at 11:23 am

            The Komen hammer is going to be tough to weld in a district that I bet is pro-life by at least 10 points. I’m guessing the approval margin for defunding Planned Parenthood is in the double digits.

            • rdelbov April 19, 2017 at 11:48 am

              Yup make it Komen or make it about her being the national director of a major charity. Ossoff has makes great coffee during his time as a congressional aide while Handel has been the head of major government and private organizations. Certainly national D groups will go after Handel but flip it back to Ossoff. Make the race Handel versus Ossoff. She was chair of Fulton county board of Commissioners–Ossoff used to make beer runs for his frat brothers.

          • Republican Michigander April 19, 2017 at 11:53 am

            4. Will the R’s (or D’s for that matter) who stayed home yesterday show up now that Ossoff nearly got 50%?
            5. Where does the non-Ossoff and non-Handel vote go?


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

            • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 1:00 pm

              Bob Gray has already endorsed Handel, as has most of the TrumpTrain people like Bill Mitchell and Trump himself (lol). That basically guarantees most of the R vote


              male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
              Rubio Republican

          • Mayor Perk April 19, 2017 at 12:35 pm

            I think even the DCCC is smart enough to leave the Susan G. Komen Foundation alone. Ossof doesn’t want a PP funding debate, particularly against a female candidate. War on Women playbook won’t work here.


            30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

            • rdelbov April 19, 2017 at 1:09 pm

              I might add that Komen supporters would not want to open this debate

              http://www.9news.com/entertainment/television/programs/next-with-kyle-clark/financially-ailing-race-for-the-cure-keeps-running/324919148

              It came as shock to those of us are in favor breast cancer research that Komen supports planned parenthood. In here in Memphis there are several alternatives to PP for low income women to get mamograms. In one case cheaper then PP with easier locations to get to but Komen still will fund mamograms at PP.

              • Republican Michigander April 19, 2017 at 1:36 pm

                PP doesn’t do mammograms. They don’t like to admit that either.


                MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

                • rdelbov April 19, 2017 at 2:00 pm

                  I should know this but I meant to say ultrasounds and of course the full other range of pre and post natal aservices. The full range of services (except for abortion) that PP has is available elsewhere.

          • fzw April 19, 2017 at 1:59 pm

            I agree with all except for #2, I think attacking Handel as a career politician who can’t hold down and finish any job she ever had would be a more effective line of attack by far. You could throw Komen into that to build the “can’t hold down a job” narrative. I think the DCCC is smart enough to go with this.

            I think it’ll be within two points either way. Gun to my head, I say Ossoff wins.


            Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
            R-leaning Indy.

            • rdelbov April 19, 2017 at 2:01 pm

              I agree. The lack of steady employment and job hopping was issue for me with Hillary.

        • andyroo312 April 19, 2017 at 9:38 am

          You really think he’ll garner zero percent of the non-Ossoff vote from Round One though? I’m skeptical. A mere 5 percent of the non-Ossoff vote will get him over 50.


          MA-7

          • cer April 19, 2017 at 9:41 am

            Perhaps, this will really light a fire under the GOP voters to increase their turnout. Quite possible moving forward.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

            • rdelbov April 19, 2017 at 10:25 am

              I might add that Ossoff could lose some of his R and indie voters as well to Handel. Clearly the message has been sent out about Trump and his policies. The GOP gets it. Now do we really want the district to represented by someone who has does not live in the district and has a very thin resume? Or do we want a top tier person like Handel to represent us in DC? Many voters could have viewed this 1st vote as a freebie where they could send a message. The next vote is about sending a Congressman. So IMO it is just as likely that we see voters change their minds on Ossoff as opposed to voting R in April and D in June?

              Clearly IMO of course the key is now the GOP can actually work and spend money on GOTV in a positive on Handel.

            • MikeFL April 19, 2017 at 10:51 am

              Again, I think it depends on what happens over the next 2 months. If we keep having infighting among the caucus among healthcare reform or we get a similarly clusterf*** bill introduced like tax reform, I think turnout is depressed and Ossoff wins narrowly.

              I can see any range of outcomes from 53-47 Handel to 53-47 Ossoff.


              26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

              • rdelbov April 19, 2017 at 11:23 am

                I certainly do not disagree that events of the next two months will have an impact on this race. Not sure that events in Georgia as opposed to DC will impact this race more.

                I personally if I was Handel would be challenging him to numerous debates. Ossoff versus Trump would lead to one outcome. Ossoff versus Handel IMO leads to a different result. This is why IMO campaigns matter. Not to bring us Hillary again but her campaign proved that you have to run on a positive message. Sure do the negative stuff but at some point in you have to make a positive appeal. I still remember the two pronged Frist campaign of 1994. Half of the ads showed Sasser as the 3rd senator from Massachusetts as he voted 95% of the time with Ted Kennedy. The other ads showed Frist as a surgeon -a non politican -was just wanting to bring TN values to DC. Make the race Handel versus Ossoff and she wins.

          • Izengabe April 19, 2017 at 11:45 am

            @Andyroo the real question will be what will turnout look like in June. If turnout is higher it could help the GOP. If GOP was getting primary turnout yesterday while Dems where getting general election turnout GOP could do better in June.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Upstater22 April 19, 2017 at 7:48 am

    $10 million can’t quite buy you a congressional seat, I guess. Will the “we need to get money out of politics” Democratic hypocrites spend another $10 million between now and June?


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • GerGOP April 19, 2017 at 7:52 am

      Most definitely, Ossoff burnt through pretty much most of his funds, iirc. Handel raised 460somethingK, I believe. She will be on more equal footing in the runoff, but she’ll still be outmatched.

      • krazen1211 April 19, 2017 at 10:39 am

        Ossoff raised $8m and burned $6m. Obviously he was playing for the win.

    • Tekzilla April 19, 2017 at 9:10 am

      I get that its a Republican site, but if you are going to hit Ossoff for raising as much as he did you should probably mention he and Democrars was outspent by Republicans 2-1.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • cer April 19, 2017 at 9:16 am

        There were also more Republicans in that race to spend on.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Mayor Perk April 19, 2017 at 9:28 am

        You should probably mention Ossof was the only credible Dem candidate vs. a fractured GOP field.


        30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

        • Tekzilla April 19, 2017 at 9:35 am

          Touché.

          Bottom line is both parties went hard and will go even harder in the runoff. Should be interesting.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • Ryan_in_SEPA April 19, 2017 at 8:06 am

    The big takeaway from the Guardian poll is how 2015 Conservative voters are equally backing the Conservatives even if they voted leave or remain, but UKIP and Liberal Democrats are equally bleeding to the Conservatives.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 8:50 am

    The polls that showed a Ossoff-Handel runoff tied (if not with a tiny Ossoff lead) also had Ossoff at 41-45% in the 1st round.

    https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/854549058949709824


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • rdelbov April 19, 2017 at 9:03 am

      The #1 problem with all polls is that knowing who actually will show up to vote is hard to know. Actually its nearly impossible to precise about that.

      The voters, overall, were a more a bit more D then some pollsters were showing. The question is what will the blend of voters look like in June? I do agree with much of the earlier article that M posted. the polling analysis is a bit of guess.

      GOP came late to the GOTV game in GA6. Frankly local, state and national parties did a great job of staying absolutely neutral in this race. That is just for party unity but clearly hurt GOP turnout. Having called people to turn them it is easier to push a candidate then just call and say “turnout and vote for anyone who is an R”.

      In addition whatever advertising the national GOP groups did this month was completely negative. It is harder to win when the only thing you are selling is a negative message. Look at Hillary 2016! You have to sell something positive and Handel IMO can have a very positive message. I might add you can only truly turn more voters out if you are positive. IMO a positive hope drives more voters to the polls.

  • Mayor Perk April 19, 2017 at 8:51 am

    Cleveland-Mayor: Outspoken City Councilman Zack Reed (D) is entering this year’s mayoral race. This should be fun. Reed is best remembered for his DUI arrest a few years ago when he fell asleep on the steering wheel at a stop light.

    http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2017/04/cleveland_councilman_zack_reed_9.html


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • shamlet April 19, 2017 at 9:28 am

    Well, we’re now at 6-3 on polling. I think the biggest problem this time was the low sample size due to the Georgia Live Intro law. 220 IVRs just isn’t enough to make a poll right – Google surveys really aren’t good for much other than bringing the age down and we were too reliant on them here (especially since they couldn’t be totally restricted to district residents – we had to ask people where they lived.) Honestly, when I started seeing the rock-bottom response rates I would have pulled the plug on that poll had DDHQ not reached out to us. I just didn’t want to reneg on our commitment and let them down.


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • cer April 19, 2017 at 9:33 am

    I like this quote from Eric Erickson in regards to the GA-6. “Democrats always seem to claim moral victories when they lose.”

    https://twitter.com/foxandfriends/status/854649029136752640

    IMHO, the Dems do have a tendency to pound their chests a tad too early at times.


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Tekzilla April 19, 2017 at 9:38 am

      While I agree that Democrats do need to actually win at some point, last night was certainly not a poor result for them. Ossoff exceed expectations and came closer than many expected to winning outright.

      Should Ossoff have said he thought he could win outright a few weeks ago? No but he’s pretty new to politics, I’m not going to kill someone for not playing the D.C. Expectations game.

      That being said, Ossoff needs to win the runoff, especially since he sat on a lot of his haul just in case. Put up or shut up time.

      I’ll add as an addendum that Democrats also failed to win against Schmidt and Bilbray in 05/06 and there was still a wave. So who knows what happens.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • Tekzilla April 19, 2017 at 9:49 am

    http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/329445-poll-shows-cruz-losing-to-texas-dem-castro

    Lol at this poll. Has Castro beating Cruz and Beto tying him.

    Also has Trump underwater by double digits.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • RRR April 19, 2017 at 10:06 am

      Beto’s about to raise some big bucks.


      NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Bronxville Test conservative
      Victories can be Pyrrhic

    • cer April 19, 2017 at 10:22 am

      The Hill sure does go all in for Democrats, even pushing extremely questionable polls like this one.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • HS April 19, 2017 at 10:40 am

        Yes. For Cruz to lose to either would require the proverbial live boy or dead girl.

        I wonder how many people in TX “recognize” Castro’s name and therefore support him?

    • pstchrisp April 19, 2017 at 10:36 am

      30-30? Was it Franklin and Marshall?

      • Ryan_in_SEPA April 19, 2017 at 12:20 pm

        I don’t think F&M would even release this poll.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • GoBigRedState April 19, 2017 at 12:54 pm

      Texas Lyceum has produced junk polls like this before. I found one from 2015 which had potential presidential race matchups. Most Republicans were behind Hillary, including Donald Trump who was behind 33-38. Marco Rubio was behind by 10 points, 22-32. Rick Perry was behind by 6 points, 31-37. Nobody in their right mind even at that time would have thought those polls were realistic. Their large “other” responses come from people who respond that they haven’t thought much about who they are going to vote for.


      45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

      • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 1:03 pm

        Thanks


        28, M, R, NY-10

      • Tekzilla April 19, 2017 at 8:55 pm

        Indeed, thus the lulz.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • CO Conservative April 19, 2017 at 12:20 pm

    I’ve met Karen Handel a couple times and think she will be an excellent member of Congress. Going online to contribute now. Let’s do what we can to combat the far left’s massive fundraising machine.

  • CO Conservative April 19, 2017 at 12:23 pm

    In CO-Treasurer, highly unlikely Justin Everett will have the nomination to himself. He’s got some serious baggage from his time in the Legislature. Businessman Brian Watson is likely to enter the race, and probably will be the favorite.

    • Wahoowa April 19, 2017 at 3:14 pm

      Agree, although Watson has plenty of baggage of his own. I’ve also heard rumors around JJ Ament (who lost a close primary to current treasurer Stapleton in 2010) and Will Trachman (Douglas County Schools general counsel). Bottom line is the chances of Everett having the primary to himself are slim.


      CO-7

      • jncca April 19, 2017 at 3:46 pm

        I think Will Trachman should do it!


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • CO Conservative April 19, 2017 at 4:00 pm

        J.J. is great, but he just took a new job as head of the Denver Economic Development Corp.

      • RRR April 19, 2017 at 4:02 pm

        #ImWithWill


        NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Bronxville Test conservative
        Victories can be Pyrrhic

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 19, 2017 at 12:34 pm

    Hey, this is an interesting study that suggests part of our explosion in partisanship is based on long-term economic trends (ie the decline of “male” work). It basically finds that as husbands make less in comparison to their wives, their preexisting views become much more extreme (ie liberals become much more liberal, conservatives become much more conservative).

    https://hbr.org/2017/04/earning-less-than-their-wives-makes-u-s-men-more-partisan

    This suggests that partisanship will dramatically grow in the future, especially among men.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • indocon April 19, 2017 at 3:26 pm

      There is another issue which has gotten lot less attention, decline of true scientific innovation and breakthrough ideas. New industries like autos, homes, phone, cable, wireless, ….have been popping up one after the other over last 100 years. Each one created millions of new good paying jobs, often done by people who were let go in some previous industries. That has simply ground to halt. What passes for innovation these days like Uber and AirBnB is simply using technology and bully power to monopolize the profits of an existing industry. Can any one say that Uber will be the source of good paying jobs in future?

      Now there is one sector which is still creating good jobs, regular IT jobs. This is where H1B is killing any chance Americans have there, I see it every day working in my consulting job with clients who love to outsource this to body shopping companies who in turn hire low skill but hard working people from India to do these jobs.

      We are heading to an extended period of stagnation, having an open border is like putting fuel on fire. Time to think like Japan.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 19, 2017 at 4:13 pm

        President Trump is cracking down on H1B abuse to an extent, which is fairly uncontroversial in the policy (even The Economist is celebrating this – http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/04/daily-chart-12), even though the fake news media is still crying racism and xenophobia. Because yeah, as it stands, most H1Bs go to relatively low-skilled labor that could be entry-level jobs for Americans, as opposed to high-skilled labor who could create more jobs for Americans.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • MikeFL April 19, 2017 at 4:16 pm

          Yeah, things like this + E-Verify are definitely more useful than a physical wall that will end up being useless anyway. It would be nice if Trump pivoted to a “smart wall” including these items to avoid a budget showoff in Congress.


          26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 19, 2017 at 4:17 pm

            This implies that typical GOP politicians have any interest whatsoever in a “Smart Wall” or things like this. They don’t. As uncontroversial as Trump’s moves on H1Bs were and widely supported by even advocates of skilled immigrant labor, no other Republican would have ever done anything like this.

            A lot of pro-market, Ryan-type Republicans really underestimate the utter venality of many Republican politicians, who likely would love to cater to the likes of Infosys.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • indocon April 19, 2017 at 4:33 pm

              Agree. At their core, majority of Republican critters in DC care about onlylow taxes and high margins for business, at ANY cost possible. This will be a slow transition for them to become party of working people.

              • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 4:44 pm

                Remember, the ridiculous tax and spend policies are the policies of the Democrats. Reagan’s playbook is correct, but I agree that a shift away from the corporate elite is necessary. I’ve said for a while that the new core GOP donor class shouldn’t be Wall Street, but people like Ron Johnson. Shifting the corporatist image of the GOP to the Democrats (which is effectively true) would go a long way to helping sway working-class minorities as well
                However, we cannot adopt Democratic socialist policies. This would lead to our ruin as a party


                male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
                Rubio Republican

      • MikeFL April 19, 2017 at 4:14 pm

        Simply closing our border is not going to solve all our problems, though the system does need to be reformed.


        26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

        • indocon April 19, 2017 at 4:32 pm

          How is that Japan is doing ok relatively speaking these days with pretty much closed borders? I flew from Detroit to Haneda last year, and you had to wonder who won the war?

          Talking to Bay Area liberals I often here food as one reason whey they love open borders, which got me thinking which country has most Michelin rated restaurants per capita, the answer is Japan.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 19, 2017 at 10:22 pm

            It’s also not just the Michelin, Japan has great “b-grade gourmet” food. Family restaurants in Japan are of markedly higher quality than chains in the United States.

            This is also probably also the fault of liberals.

            Japan doesn’t have a horde of liberal snobs roaming the nation to scream about “inauthentic” ethnic food and screech about “cultural appropriation” in every other circumstance. I don’t like actual Italian food very much, but I actually really like Japanized Italian food (especially when sprinkled with tabasco sauce). Cultural liberalism is in many ways just cultural death.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 10:32 pm

              Lol.

              The NYT food section….
              Why I always love to read it, while I will never ever eat the food is beyond me. I just like the topic….


              28, M, R, NY-10

            • indocon April 19, 2017 at 10:50 pm

              One of those Michelin rated restaurants is a sushi joint in Tokyo train station.

      • Son_of_the_South April 19, 2017 at 5:09 pm

        Ah, so I see you also subscribe to Sargon of Akkad.


        23, R, TN-08
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • segmentation_fault April 19, 2017 at 2:24 pm

    If nothing else, Ossoff showing that Trump’s suburban numbers were not a fluke is going to make it easier for Democrats to recruit strong candidates in those districts.


    En Marche!

    • fzw April 19, 2017 at 3:23 pm

      Scott Holcomb is probably kicking himself. I believe his rationale for not running was because he believed the Hillary Republicans were a one-time thing. Apparently not.


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
      R-leaning Indy.

      • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 3:27 pm

        Remember, Ossoff got less votes than Price’s challenger in 2016. How do we know whether he was just turning out the Democratic base?


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

        • fzw April 19, 2017 at 3:29 pm

          Because Ossoff won 62% of the early vote, where the electorate was 41R-41D. He had to have at least won 10% of them, if not more like 20.


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

          • Izengabe April 19, 2017 at 3:36 pm

            There is no voter registration in Georgia. Those 41R-41D numbers were based on who voted where in the last primary. Who the 18% of voters who did not vote in the last presidential primary matters and that’s where the increased Dem turnout could be coming from. The people who didnt care about politics until they woke up to find Donald J. Trump was the President of the United States;


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • fzw April 19, 2017 at 3:46 pm

              I know. But still, these are people who very likely voted for Kasich/Rubio and Price–>Clinton/Ossoff. I mean, if people want to downplay that shift, that’s their prerogative.


              Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
              R-leaning Indy.

  • RRR April 19, 2017 at 3:42 pm

    WATN: Jeb! Bush and Derek Jeter have joined forces to bid to buy the Miami Marlins.

    Despite actually liking Gov. Bush, part of me wants to watch Donald Trump swoop in and buy the Marlins at the last minute simply to see Jeb’s Sad! face one last time.

    http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article145507669.html


    NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Bronxville Test conservative
    Victories can be Pyrrhic

  • GerGOP April 19, 2017 at 4:13 pm

    Good heavens. With O’Reilly out, Eric Bolling is going to get his own show.

    • MikeFL April 19, 2017 at 4:16 pm

      They really should give it to Dana Perino with Megyn and Greta gone.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 4:32 pm

        They’re giving Martha McCallum a show


        male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
        Rubio Republican

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 19, 2017 at 4:25 pm

      ? I thought they were just moving Tucker to 8 PM and The Five (w/ Bolling I guess) to 9?


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Izengabe April 19, 2017 at 4:39 pm

      I vote for giving the hour on Fox to Brandon Finnigan and the folks at DDHQ for an our of real political analysis. Their Buzzfeed election coverage last night was awesome!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Manhatlibertarian April 19, 2017 at 5:29 pm

        Maybe Fox should give Egg McMuffin a show so that he can astound us with his great political wisdom. I mean look how important his endorsement was in the Ga-6 race.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 19, 2017 at 4:28 pm

    The crappiness of UK polls means Theresa May could actually lose. Alternatively, Labour could also just totally die.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-u-k-snap-election-is-riskier-than-it-seems/


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 4:32 pm

      Problem with this is, Tories usually outperform their poll numbers


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • Greyhound April 19, 2017 at 4:37 pm

        Yeah, outside of 1983 these are all pretty much “The Tories beat their poll #s regularly, often by considerable margins”. Admittedly 1983 is probably the closest comparison to the upcoming election with the Tories up huge and Labor in an existential crisis, so May is probably unlikely to actually win by 20+ Points, but short of May going on a shooting rampage in midtown London I’m struggling to see how she doesn’t come out of this with a healthy majority.


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

      • Jon April 19, 2017 at 6:58 pm

        “Shy Tory Factor” is inversely related though to opinions of elite news media. e.g. If BBC doesn’t like Tories, then Tories will overperform the last poll, but if BBC is now loving the Tories, it’s likely to be eliminated entirely (and in fact go into reverse)

        In any case, I’d be somewhat surprised if the Tories don’t gain 50+ seats and shocked if they gained less than 30.


        45, M, MO-02

    • GoBigRedState April 19, 2017 at 8:42 pm

      I find it kind of ironic that the person who was saying on Election Day in 2015 that Labour was headed for the most seats is casting doubt on the Conservatives’ ability to win big. This sentence doesn’t make much sense to me either-“The Scottish National Party is likely to continue to control the vast majority of the 59 seats from Scotland, which gives Conservatives less margin for error in the event the election tightens.” The SNP already controls all but 3 seats in Scotland, and the Tories don’t need to win any more than the 1 seat in the border region they already hold. There’s another seat or two in the border region they have a chance at winning that they may put some minor resources into, but other than that the Tories never have counted on much in Scotland, so it won’t have any more impact on what margin for error they have than it ever has before. I’m not really sure what his point is in mentioning that.


      45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

      • GOPTarHeel April 19, 2017 at 9:07 pm

        I actually think the Tories might put serious resources into the 3 border seats, 2-4 “Tartan Tory” seats in the Northeast, and East Renfrewshire. They don’t NEED any of those seats but it would give them credible spokespeople against the SNP and take some pressure off Mundel. 5 seats is very doable on current polling and with Davidson’s campaigning ability.

        Also I agree, Silver is full of it here. It’s one thing for Clinton to blow a 5-8 point lead after the convention but the Tories have been up by 10-15 points for months, and the election is in only 6 weeks. Unless Theresa May had an email server in the Home Office she’ll be fine.


        R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

  • Greyhound April 19, 2017 at 4:34 pm

    Apparently Clinton literally made a Dewey Mistake and was so confident of her victory that she just stopped polling states. Like, at all. How the hell did this woman convince anyone that she should be a political candidate for literally anything?
    http://nypost.com/2017/04/18/hillary-ran-the-worst-presidential-campaign-ever/


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • HS April 19, 2017 at 6:02 pm

      A more important question is how did Clinton persuade people who opposed (not her supporters who were originally just trying to depress us) her that she was 1) a good candidate, and 2) guaranteed winner for the Presidency? Including many people on this website.

      Contrary to the silly Political Scientists, politics is not an actual science. There is no never and no always.

      • hfcon April 19, 2017 at 9:17 pm

        If someone says “never” or “always,” in regards to politics, they’re probably not an actual political scientist (real political scientists understand probability). Prime example: Mr. 99% Sam Wang, a dilettante from the “hard sciences” who somehow tweeted his way into getting the media to take him seriously.


        PA-02

  • GerGOP April 19, 2017 at 5:02 pm

    AfD-Germany: The AfD “officially died” today as a viable nationalist-conservative alternative today. The current Chair Frauke Petry declared that she won’t seek the to run as her party’s “chancellor candidate”. The reason behind this is quite simple, actually. Petry is expecting her fifth child and she’s been absolutely crushed by the nazi elements in the AfD which has taken over as the dominant force with the other co/vice-Chairs openly plotting against her. The last straw which broke the camel’s back was her offering a platform which took a “realistic approach to opposing and governing” which didn’t sit well with the Nazis in her party who’re still upset that she tried/is trying to expel a Chairman for being … well … all but in name a Nazi.
    I’m really, really sad to see the AfD go down like this, even though I expected it a long time ago. Last year, I considered voting for the AfD, despite its increasingly worrying tendencies. Now, the party is hopefully withering away again.

    • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 5:07 pm

      Best hope now is if Merkel gets enough votes back to get a CDU/CSU/FDP coalition. The FDP has rebounded to a percentage to get them back into the Budestag


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • GerGOP April 19, 2017 at 5:13 pm

        Yep, that’s my hope, as well. But I don’t know how many voters they’ll get back with Merkel still at the helm.

        • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 5:19 pm

          Is there any other person in the CDU that could realistically replace Merkel?


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

          • GerGOP April 19, 2017 at 5:35 pm

            Realistically as in “Merkel steps down today”? Propably three: Interior Secretary Thomas de Maziere, but he’d propably be nothing more than an “interims” solution. Defense Secretary Ursula von der Leyen who is doing an okayish job in this hellish and god forsaken department which has proven to be an ejection seat. But she’s seen as “cold” (and not cold as in Merkel friendly-cold, but in ice-cold). Personally, I like her a lot. Prime Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer who is governing in Saarland and is sometimes being described as the second coming of Merkel. She could quite possibly be first tier material, too.

            There is a second-tier candidate: Julia Klöckner, Minority Leader in Rhineland-Palatina, the person I pinned my hopes on but she bomed as a candidate for Prime Minister for a third time last year so there’s that.

            A far-far-shot candidate would be Jens Spahn, who is the Undersecretary of Treasury and a Party Co-Chair. He’s quite young (as is Klöckner), very much rooted in the more conservative circles of the CDU and also happens to be gay – which he’s talking about quite frequently when he’s railing against muslimg refugees/immigrants who bring homophobic/anti-women believes with them.

            But all in all, I think that Merkel still might be the CDU’s best shot – despite the refugee disaster. The crisis has cooled off quite significantly and people are still grumbling about it, but the situation is nowhere near as dangerous as it was a year ago.

    • GOPTarHeel April 19, 2017 at 9:09 pm

      At least the SPD seems to have fallen back.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • GerGOP April 19, 2017 at 11:58 pm

        Thank god for that. But at this point, there propably would need to be a CDU/CSU/Greens/FDP coalition. A rather unstable government

        • SlippingJimmy April 20, 2017 at 12:48 am

          How do the Greens get worked into a Union/FDP coalition?

          I’m genuinely interested.


          Republican, TX-22.

          • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 1:51 am

            Much would propably depend on how radical the Greens would cling to their utopic environmental plans as that would propably the greatest obstacle, especially for thr FDP.
            There have been two semi-successful Jamaica Coalition in the states of Hessen and Saarland.
            I doubt that anybody really wants a Grand Coalition again, so the parties will have to get creative

        • The Emperor April 20, 2017 at 1:31 am

          Jamaica Coalition?


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

  • StatenIslandTest April 19, 2017 at 5:04 pm

    FL State Senate-This looks dicey:
    http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article145445989.html


    31, Jersey City

  • Manhatlibertarian April 19, 2017 at 5:19 pm

    Been busy all day, so haven’t been able to post about Ga 6. I’ve skimmed what people have said so I’ll try to avoid being duplicative:

    = Note that the early vote (in person and absentee) was roughly 1/3 Dem, 1/3 GOP and 1/3 No Party. For Ossoff to get 62% of the early vote (more than I thought he would get) he had to really clean up with the No Party ballots as well as get something like 15-20% of the early GOP ballots. Only a strong election day showing saved the GOP in the end.

    Handel getting 20% was better than what most polls were indicating, as they generally had several GOP candidates bunched close together. Yet she got almost twice as much as her closest GOP competitor, Gray, who got 11%.

    Many Dems are acting like Ossoff getting 48% is already a victory, saying well this a district in 2016 where the GOP candidate won by 23 points. This attitude could backfire to an extent in June, since some national Dems will think well we already won a “moral victory” so do we need to contribute $ again. The race will become more a contest between two candidates rather than Ossoff vs Trump. Also don’t forget we have a special CD election coming up in Montana in May, which will take some attention away from the Ga runoff, which won’t occur until June 20.

    I rate Ossoff the slight favorite at this point but 2 months is a long time in politics, so who knows what will happen nationally or how the campaign between the two candidates will go. In a close contest one bad stumble by one of the candidates can impact the outcome. As the famed “political philosopher” Yogi Berra once said “It ain’t over till it’s over.”

    • GoBigRedState April 19, 2017 at 9:05 pm

      Actually the general response to the GA-6 results has been much less positive for Democrats than I expected. I expected the analysis to be generally positive toward’s Ossoff’s performance and I expected Democrats to crow about the fact that a Democrat got 48% in an area they hadn’t been competitive in for years. But it seems to me that Democrats were staking so much on Ossoff avoiding a runoff that a lot of them are disappointed in the results, and most analysis I’ve read seems to think they missed their chance and Handel is at least a slight favorite now.


      45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

  • Greyhound April 19, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    And in the first wrinkle of the British election, May is warning against a possible LibDem/Labor/SNP coalition, after Sturgeon casually mentions that as a possibility.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/19/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-will-seek-progressive-alliance-labour/


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • GOPTarHeel April 19, 2017 at 6:30 pm

      Not much of a possibility with YouGov finding her party at 48 percent, literally double Lab. https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/854806692697178119


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • Son_of_the_South April 19, 2017 at 6:44 pm

        Yeah. Such a victory would probably net the Tories over 400 seats. Then again, I doubt they’ll get that in the end. This is just May giving people another reason to vote Tory instead of registering a protest vote.


        23, R, TN-08
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Ryan_in_SEPA April 19, 2017 at 6:37 pm

    http://www.politicspa.com/real-estate-agent-to-challenge-meehan/82696/

    Meehan gets a challenger actually from a county in the district.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • Greyhound April 19, 2017 at 8:08 pm

      Still not quite in the seat though, huh? Though she at least has the excuse that the 7th’s lines are ugly as hell and she’s clearly from the sort of area this seat covers.


      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

  • Manhatlibertarian April 19, 2017 at 6:49 pm

    Wednesday NY tidbits:

    GOP Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis (Part of Staten Island and Brooklyn) announced she is considering running in the GOP primary for mayor. She blasted deBlasio for sanctuary city policies, excessive spending and planning to put homeless shelters and jails all over city.

    Meanwhile the main GOP mayoral candidate to date, Upper East Side real estate developer Paul Massey, got unfavorable coverage from cable news channel NY1. The channel reported voting records indicate he rarely votes and didn’t bother to vote at all between 2001 and 2011.

    Mayor deBlasio has less and less patience for the press. For the last month he has refused to take questions from reporters at events, adopting a “don’t ask, don’t answer policy”. He prefers to use his town hall meetings and one on one interviews with select reporters to get his message across. In particular he hates the NY Post, which he once called a “right wing rag”.

    Dem State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli continues his attacks on the Cuomo Administration. He criticized lack of procurement reform in the recently adopted state budget. He also again criticized Cuomo’s economic development projects. He said “We don’t have a bottomless pit of money…it’s a fair question to say are there ways…the money would be better spent.” But DiNapoli appears not interested in challenging Cuomo in the Dem primary.

    Western Tier NY GOP Congressman Chris Collins has been a big supporter of the Trump Admin, but recently he has become annoyed about the slow pace of putting forth nominees for posts in his part of the state such as US Attorney, Federal Marshall and District Court Judge.

    State Education Commissioner Mary Ellen Elia has scheduled a public hearing on June 22 to determine if Buffalo School Board member Carl Paladino (A Trump Campaign co-chair and unsuccessful 2010 GOP nominee for Gov) should be thrown off the School Board. He is accused of making remarks unfit for a School Board member about the Obamas, including a wish that Obama would have sex with a cow and then die of mad cow disease.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

  • MosheM April 19, 2017 at 8:34 pm

    Ossoff raised $500,000(!) since last night, an incredible sum for a House candidate.
    https://t.co/BVoy8NJ3iS https://t.co/DolI8UA1xu


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Tekzilla April 19, 2017 at 8:56 pm

      Jeebus thats a lot of money.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • The Emperor April 19, 2017 at 9:15 pm

      Vulnerable Republican Congressmen and women send their thanks to the Resistance for shoveling all that money to Ossoff


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • Tekzilla April 19, 2017 at 11:48 pm

        I don’t think these people donating $15 bucks to Ossoff are done donating…


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 12:46 am

          Yeah. When you’re talking about pouring even more money into a saturated state that already has more than necessary (Dems in NC in recent cycles), then you can start talking about wasting money. That’s millions and millions and millions, not half a million.


          23, R, TN-08
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Boehnerwasright April 19, 2017 at 10:27 pm

    A few thoughts on Ossoff vs Handel.
    Handel is a stronger candidate but not by that much, as there is an reason she lost quite a few election in the past. Ossoff has little experience and residency issues, but I wouldn’t underestimate the advantage of him being a blank slate. Obama in 2008 was a similar blank slate where many people could project their hopes on, in a sense he was everything for everyone. Ossoff positions and adds are mostly center-left, but he raise a lot of money from far left and profits from anti-trump energy.

    Unlike CA-34 or Kansas-04 both parties are engaged in the contest and there are fewer special circumstances(Brownback). This might be the best testcase(if still flawed) for how the national environment is.

    I think Handels wins in the end but it will be an hard fought battle.

    • pstchrisp April 20, 2017 at 9:46 am

      “Quite a few election in the past”
      I think the “Perennial Loser” tag is a little over the top for Handel. (I’ve heard it repeatedly on CNN and MSNBC already.) She came in first in the Primary in 2010 for Governor, and lost the runoff by 0.4%. The 2014 Senate Primary was a crazy animal too with so many different factions. This election will be a real test of her strength as a candidate. But I don’t hold those previous performances against her as some kind of indication she’s a bad candidate.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 19, 2017 at 11:12 pm

    Oh man, I love British newspapers.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9udFWTXYAAlxcQ.jpg:large
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9uhFpxXsAAJiNG.jpg:large

    2015 was also a goldmine.

    http://i.huffpost.com/gen/3401220/thumbs/o-ED-MILIBAND-SANDWICH-570.jpg


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • GOPTarHeel April 19, 2017 at 11:34 pm

      British newspapers murdered Milliband over the oddest things. An awkward photo while eating a sandwich might seriously have given the Tories an extra seat or two.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

  • jncca April 19, 2017 at 11:49 pm

    So I found a Swingometer online with the ability to switch it regionally…a Tory party that wins by 18% nationally but without expanding their margin over 2015 in anti-Brexit London (I think that’s the realistic high point; polls tend to close during a campaign, not widen) picks up 38 seats, which is respectable but also shows how many safe Labour seats there are in the country…that’s a Tory party that gains 6% from last election and each % is only worth about 6 seats.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 12:46 am

      Does that include Scottish gains?


      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • jncca April 20, 2017 at 3:55 am

        Yeah, Tories can’t gain more than 3 in Scotland.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • Greyhound April 20, 2017 at 1:00 am

      The map is still very favorable to Labor. The Tories have a whole lot of untouchably-safe True-Blue seats, and they tend to be over-populated. Michael Foot famously won like ~30% of the seats with 27% of the popular vote in a FPTP system. May is sacrificing some potential upside by not waiting for the new maps, but she clearly prefers a stronger working majority now for Brexit over a theoretically-higher one later on.

      The issue though is that the polls suggest the Conservatives are absolutely killing their 2015 margins in the Midlands and the North, while barely gaining anything in the South, which just so happens to be the exact ideal distribution of extra % for them to gain seats. Like, the Conservatives are probably going to wind up with a majority of seats in greater Birmingham, and are positioned to break into South Yorkshire and Tyneside for the first time in decades.


      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

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