Political Roundup for April 20, 2017

Polling Update: We want to poll the MT-AL special election! Now here’s the problem….Our poll of GA-6 in which we correctly predicted an Ossoff vs Handel runoff completely drained our coffers. Polling Montana is hard because it requires a live person. We estimate that doing a proper poll of Montana could cost $2,000 when all is said and done. But if you guys are up for it we are too! The MT-AL special election is on May 25th. That means we got time to try and raise enough. If we are unsuccessful in raising enough your donations will not go to waste because we will poll the GA-6 runoff and if the donations we get are super generous we will attempt to poll both races! So if you want to do it please go to https://www.paypal.me/RedRacingHorses and contribute today!

President:

Cabinet: President Donald Trump’s choice for deputy secretary of commerce, Todd Ricketts, has withdrawn his nomination due to difficulties in untangling his financial holdings. Ricketts is a co-owner of the Chicago Cubs.

Governor:

GA-Gov: Former Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R) has been mentioned as a possible gubernatorial candidate. He told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he would likely decide if he would run around July 4, but the early tea leaves are pointing to Westmoreland passing on a run for governor.

IL-Gov: Chicago City Treasurer Kurt Summers (D) said he will decided within the next two weeks whether he will enter the increasingly crowded Democrat primary for Governor. If Summers joins the race, he’ll be the only African-American candidate running in a primary filled with billionaires, heir force candidates and various local pols.

ME-Gov: Military veteran Adam Cote (D) announced he will run for governor. Cote lost the 2008 Democrat primary to now-Rep. Chellie Pingree by a 44% to 28% margin.

MN-Gov: Ramsey County Commissioner Blake Huffman became the first Republican to enter the race for this open seat.  Huffman says he intents to abide by the endorsement of the Republican convention so their is a good chance he won’t be the party’s candidate as the field could get quite crowded. Other potential GOP contenders include House Speaker Kurt Daudt, state Rep. Matt Dean and Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek.

NJ-Gov: Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno unveiled a proposal to slash New Jersey property taxes by $1.5 billion annually. Guadagno hopes to make her property tax cut plan one of the centerpieces of her gubernatorial campaign.

NY-Gov: How did New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) make $783,000 in royalties from a book that sold only 3,200 copies? The exorbitant payments came for News Corp’s HarperCollins division who published Cuomo’s very poorly selling (but highly profitable) book. If only Preet Bharara (who was investigating NewsCorp when he was fired by President Trump) was still around to get to the bottom of this…..

OH-Gov: State Sen. Joe Schiavoni (D) has resigned as state Senate Minority Leader to concentrate on his campaign for governor. Senate Democrats have selected state Sen. Kenny Yuko (D) to replace Schiavoni as Senate Minority Leader.

Senate:

AL-Sen: State Rep. Ed Henry (R), the lawmaker who started the impeachment proceedings against former Gov. Robert Bentley (R), announced he will run for U.S. Senate. Henry becomes the first Republican to officially enter the primary against appointed Senator Luther Strange. Senate President Pro Tem Del Marsh, state Sen. Slade Blackwell, state Sen. Trip Pittman, former state Rep. Perry Hooper Jr., suspended state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore and various member of the Alabama congressional delegation are all considering entering the GOP primary against Strange as well.

NM-Sen: Albuquerque construction company owner Mark Rich (R) has announced he will run for Senate against Sen. Martin Heinrich (D). Rich has never run for public office before but does have the ability to partially self finance his campaign.

TX-Sen: And the award for the worst poll of 2017 goes to…. Texas Lyceum! Their just released poll shows Rep. Joaquin Castro (D) edging out Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in a potential 2018 Senate matchup and Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) tied with Cruz. Of course this is a poll of adults and Castro’s margin is 35% to 31% with a mere 34% undecided and O’Rourke is only tied 30% to 30% with 40% undecided. Junk polls like this are really nothing more than fundraising fodder for people like O’Rourke who are running long shot campaigns.

UT-Sen: Republican Derek Miller, the CEO of World Trade Center Utah and former chief of staff to Gov. Gary Herbert (R), said he’s thinking “very seriously” about running for Senate and expects to make a final decision in the fall. Miller has indicated that he would be willing to challenge Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) in a primary but would step aside if Mitt Romney (R) decided to run.

UT-Sen: There is a good chance that the Democrat candidate for Senate in Utah in 2018 will not be a guy wearing a dress. Salt Lake County Council Member Jenny Wilson (D) filed paperwork to create an exploratory committee and launched a campaign website ahead of a potential challenge to Sen. Orrin Hatch (R).

House:

GA-6: In the 24 hours after Star Wars aficionado Jon Ossoff (D) clinch a spot in the special election runoff the 30 year old embodiment of the hope of the #Resistance raised over $500,000. Like Ossoff himself the vast majority of this money comes from outside of the district. The DCCC is also going on the air with another $500,000 worth of ads.

IA-4: Internet psychic Kim Weaver (D) is coming back for another run against Rep. Steve King (R) in 2018. Weaver lost to King by more than 22 points in 2016 but maybe her tarot cards are telling her something about 2018 we don’t know.

OH-14: Twice failed independent candidate for local office Betsy Rader announced she will run for Congress as a Democrat against Rep. David Joyce (R). It is not often that someone turns a failed run for Russell Township trustee into a congressional career but Ms. Rader is hoping to break the mold!

MT-AL: The attempts by Democrats to make the upcoming special congressional election an all mail-ballot election have failed. Montana state house Republicans have killed a bill that would have required the election to be conducted entirely by mail and Montanans who want to vote will have to stand in line like a bunch of schnooks.

TX-32: Former NFL linebacker Colin Allred (D) has launched a campaign to unseat Rep. Pete Sessions (R). Allred played a few seasons with the Tennessee Titans from 2007 to 2010 where he was mostly a backup and special teams player.

UT-3: In case you missed it Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) has announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of this term. Evan McMullin (R) is reportedly considering running for this seat. No word yet on what Merrill Cook (R) and Enid Greene (R) intend to do.

State, Local & Other:

Boston-Mayor: Democrat Tito Jackson (no relation to Michael Jackson) has filed papers to begin collecting signatures to run for Mayor. Jackson is will be a heavy underdog to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh (D) who is seeking re-election.

Cleveland-Mayor: Outspoken City Councilman Zack Reed (D) is entering this year’s mayoral race. Reed is best remembered for his DUI arrest a few years ago when he fell asleep on the steering wheel at a stop light. More than a dozen candidates have taken out nominating petitions for the race. Mayor Frank Jackson (D) announced in February that he will seek an unprecedented fourth, four-year term.

FL-SD 40: Here’s a hat tip to all politicians out there, it is probably not a good idea to use the N-word when talking about your colleagues in the state senate. Florida state Sen. Frank Artiles (R) is facing mounting pressure to resign for saying that Senate President Joe Negron (R) had only risen to his position of power because “six [n-word]” in the Republican caucus elected him. I’m not sure what’s worst Artiles blatant racism or the fact that Artiles seems to be a complete drunken idiot (although those two things are not mutually exclusive).

Fake News: We hate to link to Vox but this piece about how CNN treats politics like sports is well worth watching. The crux is CNN has turned their political coverage into reality TV theater and it is having a poisonous effect on our political discourse.

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247 Comments

  • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 7:32 am

    Didnt grasp the reference with the guy wearing a dress for UTSen?

    • Upstater22 April 20, 2017 at 7:39 am

      Dem candidate vs Mike Lee in 2016 was a transgender (who announced last week that he will be running against Chris Stewart in UT-02).


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 8:13 am

        Oooooh, right! I remember now. Race wasn’t interesting enough to warrant holding on to any capacity in my brain. xD

  • Ryan_in_SEPA April 20, 2017 at 7:54 am

    PA News:

    McGinty Out of Politics? Too bad for us.
    http://www.politicspa.com/mcginty-joins-militia-hill-ventures/82705/

    PA-7: Another challenger to Meehan that does not live in the district, but at least lives in the same county as the district
    http://www.politicspa.com/real-estate-agent-to-challenge-meehan/82696/


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 1:03 pm

      You still have Drew McGinty running in PA-07. Though to be fair it’s hard to see how he could possibly be worse than Katie.

    • rdelbov April 20, 2017 at 8:13 am

      Wexton may or may no deter others from seeking this race. I guess we will see. Her state senate run, her district does not completely overlap this CD, several years ago did not overwhelm.

      The plus for Comstock is that she has shown the ability to win crossover voters and her district work is winning extra votes for her.
      The downside is Trump and the nature of the district.

      It goes without saying that whoever the D nominee is this is a 20 million dollar race in 2018.

    • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 9:07 am

      I think that Comstock is a decided underdog in 2018. It’s exactly the type of district where a popular incumbent will go down in a wave.


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 10:03 am

        Agreed – and I see a far less rosy pictures than most for 2018.

        • cer April 20, 2017 at 10:38 am

          …and I believe a few of you are overblowing how bad it will be for the GOP in 2018. One of us will obviously be wrong. I obviously hope it’s not me. 🙂


          Conservative first, Republican second!

      • zbigreddogz April 20, 2017 at 11:14 am

        Candidate quality matters. Yes, sometimes, even a great incumbent goes down in a wave year. But people like Gerlach, Reichert, Kirk, and for that matter Frank Wolf, win easily anyway.

        Comstock might not be QUITE as big of a powerhouse as these folks…but she’s damn close.

        I think she’ll be fine.

        • HS April 20, 2017 at 3:04 pm

          Comstock is no underdog, though. The race starts as Lean R.

          • StatenIslandTest April 20, 2017 at 3:56 pm

            If Trump is holding 47-48 by then (assuming 2.5 growth, no wars and no Tweeting on Saturdays) seats like this prob are lean R.


            31, Jersey City

            • zbigreddogz April 20, 2017 at 7:34 pm

              Trump would need to be around 35% for me to think this race is a tossup. Comstock is very strong.

          • zbigreddogz April 20, 2017 at 7:33 pm

            I think it starts as Likely R. Lean R if the D’s don’t murder themselves in the primary and raise a lot of money.

        • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 11:53 pm

          Yeah, you’re right, but that’s just the thing – Wexton is a good candidate. She represents a decent chunk of the district and isn’t seen as a crazy. She’s the type of candidate that takes down a solid incumbent because of a wave.


          23, R, TN-08
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • krazen1211 April 20, 2017 at 3:57 pm

        We should get a test in 2017. In 2013 Cuccinelli won the 10th district, and even Jackson only lost it by 5. It was solidly R in the 2014 Senate race too.

  • Tekzilla April 20, 2017 at 8:19 am

    Ethical Q for everyone. If you asked someone if they were going to run for something, and they told you that they were thinking about it, is that something thats ok to tell people?

    I talked to candidate x in a private message on FB just asking if they would run and actually got an answer surprisingly. Should I not spill since I wasn’t explicitly told I could?


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • GOPTarHeel April 20, 2017 at 8:22 am

      Feel free to say it in my opinion unless you are very close with them on a personal level outside of politics. If they’re telling people who they aren’t close with in that business they want the rumors to spread.


      R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • Upstater22 April 20, 2017 at 8:35 am

      If you are just some random person on facebook and they are telling you they are running, then it is ok to tell (or maybe they are just screwing around with a random person on the internet). If it is someone you know personally, they may expect a certain amount of discretion. I would’ve asked them if it was ok to repeat.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • shamlet April 20, 2017 at 8:48 am

        Yeah, I think this depends on how personally close you are:
        Person you only know from facebook/met once/went to high school with and haven’t seen since – go ahead and blab it.
        Acquaintance you see occasionally but aren’t close with – would probably go back and ask
        Family or truly close personal friend – don’t leak it.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 9:06 am

      I agree with what was answered to this.


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 10:06 am

      Personally, I’d always err on the side of asking for clarification. It doesn’t take long, doesn’t delay you “blabbering” by too long and it’s a question of courtesy, imho. But then again, I have been burnt twice in the past year for talking about something which hadn’t been explicitly marked confidential but apparently was nothing for public disclosure. Got me in some nice conversations with the science and social department in my state.

    • Izengabe April 20, 2017 at 10:22 am

      @Tek instead of asking us you should ask candidate x if what he told you is OK to share. That would be the right way to do it.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • roguemapper April 20, 2017 at 10:35 am

      If they’re a Republican go for it. If they’re a Democrat keep it to yourself. 😀

      Seriously, though, when people have “ethical dilemmas” it’s often because they’re trying to rationalize doing something that they really want to do but know they probably shouldn’t do. The ethical thing to do is ask the person if it’s OK. If they responded to your previous message I see no reason to think they won’t respond to that one.


      Dem NC-11

      • Left Coast Libertarian April 20, 2017 at 11:02 am

        You’re 100% right. If you feel you have to ask the question then you really feel like you shouldn’t but are trying to get others to tell you that you should. In that case you should ask the person. If it were me and the person wasn’t someone I knew then they are telling a stranger who they have no idea whether they can trust. It would be okay to reveal it. I’ve casually met a number of politicians and worked on campaigns and no one ever told me anything they didn’t want out. A few years ago I knew someone fairly well who knew whether Buck McKeon was retiring and he wouldn’t tell me one way or another.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 11:13 am

          There’s something about people interested in politics where they REALLY think the whole world are interested in their thoughts. So they never shut up when approached by journalists. The new Clinton book is really interesting, but it’s fascinating how many disloyal ****s just open up to the authors on everything, especially about Hillary’s personal behavior. I for one will be taking every unflattering anecdote about any candidate I’ve ever supported to the grave. The only downside is that I sometimes say things that sound insane and vague and I can’t actually explain myself.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • shamlet April 20, 2017 at 11:18 am

            >>There’s something about people interested in politics where they REALLY think the whole world are interested in their thoughts.< < . This may be the most meta comment ever on this site.


            R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 11:28 am

              I believe the term is a self-referential statement. 😛

              Though I don’t mean in the intellectual evangelism way, but I mean in the way that people in politics love to feel IMPORTANT and that they are involved in IMPORTANT things with IMPORTANT people which is why they know IMPORTANT things about IMPORTANT people. The beauty of RRH is that people here actually talk about politics, not gossip about IMPORTANT people that makes them feel IMPORTANT, which is what DC cocktail parties often boil down to.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Skaje April 20, 2017 at 8:51 am

    Hey, longtime Dem lurker here. I’ve read RRH for years because I appreciate the other side’s perspective and analysis, but every once in awhile you all permit something like “guy in a dress” to be used to describe a transgender woman. It’s…incredibly hurtful and offensive. Do I need to mention I have a transgender family member? Should that even matter?

    I’ve long followed Republican blogs but they could be hard to read ~10 years ago because of what they would permit to be said about gay people. Those blogs were more than happy to have zero gay readers, but I think if those admins were to look back they would have wanted to do things differently now. Maybe RRH will in 10 years. Or maybe I’m wasting my time. I’m a guest in your house, if I’m out of line let me know and I’ll never bring it up again.

    • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 9:06 am

      I have what to add, but this will start a flame war that I don’t think the mods want.


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • andyroo312 April 20, 2017 at 9:52 am

      I didn’t even know Misty Snow is transgender but this was my initial reaction too.


      MA-7

    • aggou April 20, 2017 at 10:02 am

      Oh it definitely goes both ways on both sides.

      We just understand people have very, very different beliefs and understandings due to their upbringing. You just have to ask yourself if you’re able to handle it, or if it’s better that you not read through in case there’s something you may find offense. Everyone has to come to the conclusion.

    • segmentation_fault April 20, 2017 at 10:24 am

      I agree, I thought Izengabe was better than this.


      En Marche!

      • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 10:32 am

        As I said below, I get where the comment is coming from and I appreciate the civil statement of disapproval. It’s the immediate questioning of izengabe’s character which gets my puls rate jumping. And I’m saying this as a person who holds some stock in the whole LGBTQ discourse.

    • Izengabe April 20, 2017 at 10:33 am

      @Skaje just to be clear it was meant as joke and in no way meant to be offensive. In fact I would argue that the only way to be offended by it is if implicit in the offense you might think there is something wrong with cross dressing (which I do not). The reality of Misty Snow’s senate candidacy was not to win but rather to show that it is OK to be a “guy in a dress” and that people who identify that way should be treated with the same respect we give anyone else. In that respect his campaign was a success. But to me to deny that Misty Snow is not a “guy in a dress” is just as insane as the people who think someone does not have the right to dress how they wish, identify how they want or respect them because they are different.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • pstchrisp April 20, 2017 at 11:00 am

        I took it as this as well, as it was a central part of his campaign. Just like tomorrow you can say: The nominee for MA-Sen next year probably won’t be “A Guy Who Drives A Truck”, making a joking reference to the over-emphasis by the Scott Brown campaign to draw attention to that.

        • pstchrisp April 20, 2017 at 11:05 am

          Edit: Should be “her campaign” if that’s the pronoun with which she’d rather be identified.

          • Mugwump April 20, 2017 at 12:41 pm

            This entire comment chain shows why the West deserves to die and how out of touch this place can be with the country at large. For Christ’s sake, most IRL Dems don’t accept what is at its core Left Wing Creationism. If I get banned for this I don’t care but 2+2 will never =5 just to make people feel better.


            Trumpocrat who wants to MAGA WI-06

            • TheWizardOf144 April 20, 2017 at 12:55 pm

              Well said.

              • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 1:30 pm

                “This entire comment chain shows why the West deserves to die ”

                and

                “Well said”

                No to both.

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 4:30 pm

                  Though when the “mainstream right” also starts pronoun-policing the unwashed masses, one really wonders what the point of it all is.


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                  • RRR April 20, 2017 at 4:38 pm

                    If it wasn’t abundantly obvious below, this thread was shut down. I also laid down a very clear warning to keep the conversation elections-focused, and this is not.


                    NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Bronxville Test conservative
                    Victories can be Pyrrhic

            • krazen1211 April 20, 2017 at 2:20 pm

              The trevor Noahs and Samantha bees of the left say and do so much worse that that.

              Even bill Maher pointed out that the left dishes things like that out, but can’t take it in return. And that was with Rick santorum sitting right there.

            • RRR April 20, 2017 at 4:25 pm

              This is a mainstream, right-leaning *elections* blog, NOT a place for discussing alt-right strategies. Both this and the comment for which you were strongly warned earlier are flagrantly out of line, both by RRH community standards and any reasonable societal expectation. Go post on an InfoWars comment forum if you want to express such views about non-electoral topics—or any using the Alex Jones-like rhetoric and tone you’ve decided to use. Come back in a week if you can adhere to community norms. The suspension applies to you, and the warning regarding both staying on topic (elections) and dropping the fire and brimstone rhetoric to others on the thread.


              NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Bronxville Test conservative
              Victories can be Pyrrhic

    • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 1:25 pm

      We don’t ‘permit’ or ‘not permit’ anything. The individual moderator writes the roundup. We may edit to add something that he missed or correct spelling errors throughout the morning, but we generally don’t police each other’s work. We might change guidelines after the fact, but the original post stands.

      As for your being offended, well, that’s just tough. When Dave Chappelle makes jokes about white people, I don’t call him up and complain. I just laugh a little less. You’re being really respectful, so I’m going to say this as nicely as I possibly can; acting offended (which I’m sure you actually are) might get you somewhere on other sites, but not here. We do not obey the iron fist of cultural fatwas wrapped in the velvet glove of just trying to be nice to everyone. I would say the same thing (with a different velvet glove) if some Christian started complaining that our commentary wasn’t ‘pure.’ We bend over backwards to accommodate Democrats here because it’s a scary partisan environment out there and we don’t want a bubble. It probably took a lot of bravery to make this comment. It took a lot of self-questioning to lurk here and get information and opinions from different source for years. I commend you for it. It’s why I read DKE weekly and watch Maddow a few times a month. I’d really love it if you stayed, kept on commenting, and became part of the conversation.


      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • TennesseeMike April 20, 2017 at 2:40 pm

        Thank you. One big thing that has offended me is how easy it is these days for some people to be offended. As a Christian I don’t get offended by RRH because this is not a Christian site. And I don’t expect you to post in a “pure” way, whatever that means. I also live in the South and there are people who still joke about “hillbillies”. Or consider us somewhat stupid because of how we talk. And it’s not like we can change these things. But I really don’t care. People need to lighten up a little and grow a thicker skin.


        TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

        • cer April 20, 2017 at 6:01 pm

          I like how open minded RRH is to different point of views. To bad the same thing can’t always be said for some of those sites on the political left.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

          • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 10:34 pm

            Well, that’s true of many right-leaning sites as well. It might be less intense on some things, but it’s probably moreso on others.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • rdelbov April 20, 2017 at 10:52 pm

              Yup other then perhaps Redstate and some free republic boards there is a tolerance of other views on conservative sites. Not sure I have never see anything but total disgust for the conservative or R views at liberal sites.

        • Tekzilla April 20, 2017 at 9:37 pm

          I get that many people on the left are over sensitive, I share that view point. However I’d disagree that misgendering someone and talking about someone who has transitioned as “easily offended”. Transgender Americans wether you agree with their “choice” or not have it very tough (And yes I know they would have it much rougher elsewhere), So I get why the poster is sensitive to it because they probably see what their family member goes through.

          So agreed 100% that in general too many people are over sensitive about certain things, but on this topic I understand where the poster is coming from.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 11:13 pm

            Well, I see your point as well, but he’s coming in without ever being a member of this community and asking us to change our language to suit his feelings. I hope he joins this community, but I’m not going to accommodate him just because of hurt feelings. Down that road lies madness and thought police.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • TennesseeMike April 21, 2017 at 12:02 am

              Exactly. The blogger didn’t ask what was meant by the description, or why it was used, but immediately went to “It’s…incredibly hurtful and offensive.” This is primarily what I objected to.


              TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

          • GOPTarHeel April 20, 2017 at 11:25 pm

            I have fairly traditional views on gender identity issues but I also think the right thing to do is be respectful of another person’s wishes, either by using the person’s preferred prounouns or using the individual’s proper name if you have a religious or moral objection to using a preferred pronoun. That said it’s the moderators’ site and they can post as they please.


            R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

          • Izengabe April 21, 2017 at 12:37 am

            @Tek I agree that transgender people have it tough and that they have every right to be sensitive. Furthermore I would say that if something offense you the right thing to do is to speak out about it. That’s how dialogues and understanding happens. To be clear I was not trying to be offensive I was trying to be funny. My intent was not to offend but rather to get a laugh.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Mayor Perk April 20, 2017 at 9:07 am

    Federal circuit court scuttlebutt for those interested on ATL: http://abovethelaw.com/2017/04/who-will-president-trump-nominate-to-the-circuit-and-district-courts/?rf=1


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Manhatlibertarian April 20, 2017 at 12:42 pm

      Will be interesting to see what happens with the federal district courts and the blue slip tradition, which allows a Senator to block a district court nomination from his/her state. Keep in mind that for now the two big sectors of liberal Dem power are most of the MSM and the federal judiciary below the SCOTUS level. By my count there are about 20 states where both Senators are GOP, but that leaves about 30 where you have at least one Dem Senator. So the question is will there be “total warfare” over the district court nominations, wherein most Dem Senators will simply block just about any Trump Admin nominations with the blue slips. Don’t forget many Dem Senators are under pressure from their SJW types to be part of the “Resistance”. As Judiciary Chair Grassley has pointed out if the blue slip tradition becomes abused it might be time to look at whether it should be continued. I would guess the odds are at least 50/50 the blue slip tradition will be abused.

      • prsteve11 April 20, 2017 at 1:06 pm

        Good post. The big question will be if Dems just blue slip/block Trump nominees for the sake of them being Trump nominees or if they’ll be realistic and pragmatic. If it’s ND, IN or WV, you will probably see pragmatism, but for CA, IL, NY and such places, it’s hard to see conservative nominees being treated with respect. Nuking the blue slip tradition would then be necessary.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

        • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 1:44 pm

          We might be heading towards it. It probably depends on how much they use, not whether they use it at all. Also, Welcome!


          23, R, TN-08
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • rdelbov April 20, 2017 at 4:10 pm

          Congressman Collins has already mentioned that Schumer is looking to play hardball with NY judges. WA senators have just resubmitted five names to the white house. CA senators have insisted that district court judges from their states come from their commissions. IMO PA and FL senators have committeed to work together with Trump. So it is a mixed bag. IMO Trump fill a bunch of judgeships from R senator states as well circuit court spots. The others will come but expect fights.

          • rdelbov April 20, 2017 at 4:13 pm

            I might add that Grassley has voiced some unease with court vacanies. It is advice and consent as the Senate’s roll. For two senators from CA or WA to say “here is my list of nominees that I will support” goes beyond historical limits for blue slips.

            • w920us April 20, 2017 at 6:21 pm

              I also think Grassley is still irked about the treatment of Gorsuch and Bland. So it wouldn’t surprise me if he (& McConnell) ditch the blue slips.


              R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
              #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 1:14 pm

        Of the 30 states where this is at least one Dem Senator there are such population centers (sarcasm) as Hawaii, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Montana, West Virginia and maybe Maine. Realistically the blue slip thing shouldn’t really harm anything but judges in CA, NY and FL which I’d think wouldn’t be all that frutiful grounds for Trump nominees…and that’s if Nelson and Casey play the blue slip game 100% of the time. He should be able to find the requisite judges in Deep South, Texas or plains states I’d think.

        Sometimes political parties fight wars that really aren’t worth having on stuff like that. Then again this is another of the stupid traditions that’s just really really pointless.

  • rdelbov April 20, 2017 at 9:11 am

    I slowed down lurking at D sites over the years because I got tired of all the offensive references to Rs and conservatives at these sites. KOS and SPP banned me so I never made my views known about that. I am nearly 60 and a bit old fashioned about civility and politeness. The rough and tumble of this site can be a bit much for my liking. I even find myself making responses that if I could remove, after 10 or so minutes, I would do so. I suspect the RRH mods were not trying to be offensive but rather commenting on the fact that the D candidate for senate in Utah in 2016 make transgender issues a very important part of her campaign and it turned voters off.

    The assumption about the D candidate in Utah is that the majority of the voters in the state viewed him or her as a guy in a dress. I might add that apparently his or her identity(I frankly do not know exactly how to properly address this person on the internet) was a vital part of the race. Her situation seemed like it the primary reason for her running. Not a hit on her as single issue candidates abound all over the USA. It just seemed an unlikely strategy to win in Utah to make trangender issues the primary selling point of your campaign. Our RRH moderator is making the point that a straight person running on the same issues (leaving transgender issues aside) would be a more appealing candidate in Utah. I might add that if you make making a dress as a guy as the keystone of your campaign don’t surprise that people comment on it.

  • rdelbov April 20, 2017 at 9:53 am

    Analysis of Hogan 2018

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/editorial/bs-ed-hogan-20170411-story.html

    To an extent Hogan went along with D measures while fighting for more R measures.

  • RogueBeaver April 20, 2017 at 9:54 am

    UK-Heir Force: Corbyn is giving his 25-year-old son a safe seat. IIRC Lab ones are usually called Red Princes like Stephen Kinnock. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/jeremy-corbyns-son-planning-stand-mp-safe-labour-seat/


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • rdelbov April 20, 2017 at 10:35 am

      I am bullish on the conservatives. This will not impact a seat but will likely fray the edges a bit more.

  • dforston April 20, 2017 at 10:13 am

    Find out what type of county you live in with this cool map – http://americancommunities.org/2017/04/new-poll-shows-divisions-trump-is-creating-in-electorate/

    • Ryan_in_SEPA April 20, 2017 at 10:20 am

      The map seems to lack a category that captures small metro areas well. What is Dallas and Polk counties Iowa exurbs of? How is Lancaster and Berks Counties PA middle suburbs, but Chester County is an exurb?


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

      • Upstater22 April 20, 2017 at 11:02 am

        Their categories aren’t just based on physical location. They could’ve had everything covered with Big Cities, Urban Suburbs, Middle Suburbs, Exurbs, and Rural. But then they expand into other non-geographical categories: Military Posts, Graying America, Hispanic Centers, Evangelical Hubs, etc. Any one of these counties could fit into the City/Suburb/Rural geographical counties. Even after reading their explanations, it’s not entirely clear how they decided to make a county “Graying” instead of “Rural” (for example).


        Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • BostonPatriot April 20, 2017 at 11:53 am

        Yeah a lot of this is off. Dallas seems like an exurban county but Polk should be “Middle American Urban.” There’s no reason for that not to be a category: places like Peoria and Terre Haute and Rochester have been used to represent the quintessential “everyman” for centuries.

        • CTIronman April 20, 2017 at 12:34 pm

          If you think Putnam County NY is an “urban suburb” you’ve never set foot in the place

      • marcus April 20, 2017 at 12:23 pm

        I tried to figure out their methodology, but the website is a little vague. Apparently they started with the 46 biggest cities as the “urban” areas and used population density to determine other categories. In any case, it really needs a Small City category, which would solve most of the problems. Also the presence of small cities is what seems to mess up the Philly area counties as well. eg. Reading makes Berks a “Middle Suburb” because it increases its population density enough, but Chester and Bucks lack such communities, so they’re “Exurbs”.


        34, Dem, MA-7

        • marcus April 20, 2017 at 12:29 pm

          This is also what causes Allegheny County, PA to be an “Urban suburb” while Duval County, FL is a “Big City”, despite Allegheny being both larger and denser. Pittsburgh is the 63rd largest city in the US, so it misses the cutoff, while Jacksonville has a consolidated City / County government.
          Such a stupid methodology. Consolidated governments do not a Big City make.


          34, Dem, MA-7

          • StatenIslandTest April 20, 2017 at 3:59 pm

            I feel like 2016 R+10 Staten Island maybe should be a suburb lol.


            31, Jersey City

      • Jon April 20, 2017 at 7:16 pm

        Apparently the two in Iowa are considered exurbs of Des Moines; makes some sense for Dallas; but not for Polk.


        45, M, MO-02

    • Republican Michigander April 20, 2017 at 3:08 pm

      Interesting project, but that map was way off in regards to my state.

      Wayne County is the only “Big City” county listed. That I can agree with depending on what you consider Grand Rapids.

      Kent and Oakland – Urban Suburbs? Oakland I can see (at least 1/3 of it), but Kent County has the 2nd biggest city in Michigan. Grand Rapids is a city, not a suburb. There’s suburbs in Kent County, but there’s a bigger suburban population in Wayne County than there is City of Detroit population.

      Livingston County is “Middle Suburb,” as is Saginaw, Macomb Monroe, Jackson, and Genesee County. Really? Depends how you define Middle Suburbs. The Genesee County classification was stupid. Flint’s bled a lot of people, but that’s a core city by anybody’s definition. There’s a lot of suburbs there too, but Flint has to be included. Saginaw County’s tougher, because there’s a bit of everything there. Jackson County is the same way. 1/2 of Macomb is urban suburb by almost any definition. I have never seen Livingston considered “Middle Suburb” by any definition. Rural or outer suburbs or “Exurbs” (I hate that term) I can see depending what you consider the “cut off” line for Metro Detroit or Ann Arbor.

      Muskegon and Eaton – rural middle America. Eaton’s got part of Lansing and some suburbs, as well as a lot of rural areas. Muskegon isn’t rural. It’s a core industrial city in West Michigan. Muskegon itself is as rural as Saginaw.

      Clinton County – Exurbs. Clinton County is somewhat similar to my county 20 years ago outside of more government workers and MSU students (Bath Twp). I can agree with that, although I hate the term exurb.

      Ingham, Isabella, Mecosta,Washtenaw, Kalamazoo, Houghton – College Towns (but not Marquette). Mecosta and Houghton are arguable, but they do have college towns. Marquette has to be on there.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • Jon April 20, 2017 at 7:25 pm

        In the case of Missouri, most of the errors are it calling several counties “college towns” that aren’t:

        Cole County: Not a college town; that’s Columbia in the next county north. Is a Govt Town if they had that; otherwise would be a small city.
        Nordaway County: What large college is even in that county? Rural Middle America would likely be it’s best fit.
        Greene County: Springfield isn’t really a college town; it’s probably big enough now to be considered a large city.
        Cape G County: Cape G isn’t really a college town; Small town would be it’s best fit.


        45, M, MO-02

  • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 10:28 am

    Re, Political Discussion and Culture (ties neatly with the comment from above, which was a very civil comment of disapproval, imho):
    This is very self-righteous, but I see a very toxic and very harmful political discussion and culture in the United States these days: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/man-dies-home-falsely-told-trump-impeached-article-1.3067124

    tldr: A woman told her dying (like literally) husband that Trump was impeached as he drew his last breath and died immediately afterwards.

    I stumbled accross this on a German online newspaper (wtf?) and immediately asked myself the question
    a) why the heck is this even making news; and
    b) what the heck is wrong with the woman that she felt the need to sell this story; and
    c) what the heck is wrong with the political discourse in the United States.

    Everytime I read about families breaking apart over politics, I can only shake my head. In my opinion, you can vehemently disagree on something, but still end up caring for each other. One of my roommates and I have very little in common and we love to debate until we find some common ground or just give up, acknowledging that we have to “agree to disagree.”
    I once read something on a left leaning side (was it buzzfeed? propably) that the person refused to “acknowledge” and still “be family” with someone who he/she thought would bring doom upon the world.

    I find myself wondering whether it’s the type of elections that the Unnited States have, which are very much centered around a person and not a partry, are the root of this?

    This propably holds little relevance to electoral news (maybe a bit), but it’s a question and a thought I wanted to post.

    • Upstater22 April 20, 2017 at 10:58 am

      The politics of the Left are now a religion in America. They have a core set of beliefs, belief in a higher power (eg Earth/environmentalism), use hyped up rhetoric to drive emotion, etc. Any attack on their politics is an attack on their faith. Non-adherence to the faith deserves persecution and violence. Facts, truths, realities, and science (for instance the science that a male dressing up like a female is still a male and gender is determined by biology, not one’s psychological disorders) are irrelevant if they go against the faith.

      The right generally looks at the West and the US as a great good in the world. We have the most free, most economically successful, most inclusive society that the world has ever seen. No other society has even come close. We look at the failures of other systems of government over the centuries and say, nope, we’re good. Yes, there have been failures, but these failures are because we are human and have human failings. We want to protect the society that we have created because we understand history.

      The Left looks at the West and the US and sees nothing but evil. Slavery, racism, intolerance, inequality. It is an entirely warped and demented view of the world and of history, but it fits within their belief system. They live in this little bubble where they are spoiled by the society we have created and don’t understand history, don’t understand that the way things are is not normal throughout the history of the world. They are like a spoiled teenager who rebels against their parents even through they have been given anything they could possibly want or need – the kind of kid who goes on Facebook and says that they have the worst parents in the world because they bought them a black Porsche for graduation instead of a silver one.

      The goals of the left and the right are so diametrically opposed, that there is no common ground. The Right wants to preserve the greatest society the world has ever know. The Left wants to destroy it. The Left is attempting to follow the Marxist playbook – destroy the traditional societal support structure (family, church, and community) and replace it with the state. Conservatives understand that this has been tried and failed over the last century.

      The fact is, the divide is real and irreconcilable.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 1:21 pm

        Left evil, right good. I saved you 400 words. And it’s not at all biased…lol.

      • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 1:33 pm

        Well, most people don’t fit into this molds, though. The ideological cores of each side definitely do. They tend to be the drivers of the conversation. Certainly they’ve been able to polarize voting a lot more by controlling narratives. Still, though, most people aren’t satisfied with their voting choices because they’re choosing what is to them the lesser of two evils. Information technology plays a big role in this as well, but that’s a whole post in and of itself.


        23, R, TN-08
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 1:50 pm

          I love where your going so write that next post.

          • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 2:55 pm

            Ah, ok. I’ll expound.

            There’s been a lot written about the power of social media as a cultural battlefield. That’s true. There’s also been talk about it as a driver of hyper-partisan news (see Tim Pool’s video today over on Sargon’s YouTube channel for more on this). However, the divide actually has its roots in the early 70s. When Watergate arrived on the scene, we’d already seen cracks in the postwar consensus with the Civil Rights Movement and the Vietnam War protests. Watergate was the straw that broke the camel’s back of the nation’s faith in its own government. The media was one of the only big institutions to survive major scrutiny and acrimony as the consensus broke down because they had reported diligently on all of it and uncovered Watergate and the Pentagon Papers. Still, they tended to lean leftward slightly already. The fact that these two big scandals seemed to be proof of the left’s righteousness (plus the use of television in fighting the Civil Rights Movement) started to make journalism, at least at the national level) into a more and more left-wing profession. After the cultural upheaval of the 70s, the nation took a culturally conservative turn in the 80s, but the national media, still all newspapers and the Big Three networks, was now more left-wing since there had been a decade of churn on press staffs. Some older hands had left and been replaced with young, wide-eyed lefties who all wanted to be the next Bob Woodward, but with an inherent partisan bias (Woodward himself is generally fair to this day). After a while the right started to notice this, and set up talk radio in response. This is when the trust in traditional media really started to break down. However, the right could only go so far with radio. They could talk about how the media was biased, but it was so inherent at this point that there wasn’t much that they could do besides complain ad nauseam on Rush.

            Enter advances in information technology; CNN had been around for awhile, but it was never particularly profitable. The news business model was profitable because you had a relatively captive audience. Then Roger Ailes had one of the most profitable ideas in media history; why not go back to the late 19-century way of doing news and have ideological papers? This time, though, they’d be cable channels. MSNBC and Fox News followed, and CNN started to be a bit more ideological to keep up. Then the internet started blossoming into what it is today, and we’ve only gotten more and more polarized and siloed. It looks a lot like what happened in acrimonious, high turnout, and very close elections post-Civil War, but technology has made it worse. Now instead of reading the latest outrage in the party paper and yelling about in the pub down the street (three days after the news happened). Someone five states away can see you comment on it as it’s happening or right after the fact in real time. That sounds like it would be great for political discourse, but because the business model of news has changed, outlets are incentivized to gin up your outrage. The faster and clearer dialogue gets nastier and nastier. People with high IQs can still sort through the noise, but most people can’t or don’t have the time. Technology also helped cause party realignment along ideological lines because it destroyed the ideological differences between regional party factions generationally (as opposed to changing the minds of those already voting). It also broke down confidence in the government even more because even as corruption fell, reporting of it became more available and partisan. In a multi-party system like the UK’s, we might be able to deal with this a bit better. In a two-party system, it’s poison. Neither side will unilaterally disarm (and neither will I), so we just keep going until something else breaks down and changes the equation or a new technological advancement does something to start healing the wounds.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 5:32 pm

              Sorry for the delay. I like thinking about your timeline starting at Watergate and like looking back at the POTUs elections of the last 100 years or so and how double-digit wins by both sides was pretty common pre-Watergate but now close elections are more commonplace (I’m referring to popular vote). It’s funny how the party rhetoric seems more polarized, we are certainly more siloed but we seem to have a higher frequency of close elections (POTUS is my focus here) which just seems counter-intuitive.

              I’d also say my main fault with politics social media is twofold. First people identify much of their being by party affiliation, which hen you truly think about it is pretty meaningless. Abortion, guns, tax policy and many other of the dividing issues don’t really impact me on an average day so why the hell define myself by a political ideology. Second I think there’s is a consistent failure of psyche on social media in that finding people of a like mind gives a false confidence of being right; having someone agree with your opinion certainly isn’t the definition of being right.

              Comically in relation to social media I find that the 2-party systme is hardly the worst offender. I honestly don’t know who is worse: (1) Libertarians whose world views, if held in truly strict Libertarian thought, often don’t make much sense and at least as a political movement could never garner mass appeal, (2) Greens who would cut of their nose to spite their face and subsequently cut off their face to spite their nose or (3) the slef-absorbed independents who seem to view being independent as being some act of heroism when it’s actually one of the least logical things to do (I mean an independent in Philadelphia Pennsylvania in the early 2000’s could have voted for Rick Santorum for Senate, Ed Rendell for Governor, Bob Brady for Congress and Bob Casey for Auditor general…but what the hell is that voting for really?)

              As for television, I’m flabberghasted anyone watches cable news of any kind. And I guess really they dont since in a country of 350 million a great night on Fox News (highest rated) is I think like 5 million viewers and in total for all about 10 million (I might be off by a good amount). How the hell O’Reilly or Maddow or Olbermann or anyone became elevant is beyond me…how did those 5-10 million viewers impact a country of 350 million? It’s insane; I’ve never actually watched any political cable news except election night (literally the only time ever) and yet they drive so much. How???

              Anyways here we are…on the internet talking about social media. Is it all my fault? LOL

              • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 6:14 pm

                As to the cable question, it has to do with the ideological cores I spoke about earlier. Those channels influence the cores and other media sources (provide clips, etc). Those two things then drive the rest of the conversation (on politics, at least). Also, remember that a lot of people might not watch regularly, but millions loosely follow them. A lot clips from the cable news channels pop up on social media.

                I actually have no general issue with a two-party system. However, it does make polarization worse. It’s more of a cultural polarization than anything else. Those issues that don’t effect you very much day-to-day are both ideological positions and cultural totems of aspiration to the kind of society that you want. For evidence, see the Leave-Remain divide that is somewhat polarizing British politics at the moment.

                Yes on thinking that everyone agrees with you; that’s siloing.

                As to libertarians, I am one, lol, at least on domestic policy. On foreign policy I’m a hegemonist.


                23, R, TN-08
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • RogueBeaver April 20, 2017 at 10:37 am

    WATN: Scott Brown nominated as Ambassador to NZ. https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/855066873049878529


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • Izengabe April 20, 2017 at 10:41 am

      Bqhatevwr


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • kewgardens April 20, 2017 at 1:48 pm

      https://twitter.com/SenWarren/status/855096923467939840

      And they say bipartisanship is dead!!!! 🙂

      But what will the #Resistance say?

      • Izengabe April 20, 2017 at 2:14 pm

        I think Warren is just glad that the only Republican with a shot in hell of beating her is literally being sent half way around the world.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • StatenIslandTest April 20, 2017 at 3:12 pm

          Interestingly Jimmy Carters ambassador to New Zealand was a Democratic New Jersey State Senator, Anna Clark Martindell from a Republican district who won in the post-Watergate landslide. Hope this is bad foreshadowing for Trump!


          31, Jersey City

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 10:49 am

    Democrats are taking the GA-6 loss pretty hard. Way harder than I would.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/democrats-georgia-ossoff-237348


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • rdelbov April 20, 2017 at 10:59 am

      A lot of what happened in GA6 was a surprise to me. I saw the numbers for Ossoff more in line with RRH poll at 40% as opposed to 48%. I think a lot of voters also wanted to send a message to DC and Trump. Some of those voters were likely Price or Isakson voters in 2016.

      I guess we will that with the yuge resources that will come to bear from both sides in June.

    • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 11:04 am

      I don’t even see it as a loss. I think that they had a pretty good result.


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • cer April 20, 2017 at 11:06 am

        It will be a good result, if they win the runoff.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Left Coast Libertarian April 20, 2017 at 11:07 am

        The wins that count are in November 2018. They should really use this as a stepping stone. In 2010 Republicans didn’t get discouraged losing NY-23 or PA-12.

    • fzw April 20, 2017 at 11:35 am

      Maybe I’m reading it wrong, but this headline is kinda misleading. There is a grand total of one unnamed source who was disappointed, and on top of that, the bulk of the story focused on the DCCC’s hyperbole about freaking out with apocalyptic “all is lost” emailing nonsense that apparently they do with almost every race, which is far from the case in GA-6. Ossoff getting 48.1% of the vote in midterm level turnout is a helluva feat IMO, especially for a novice who is decidedly a B-lister at best. More like C.


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
      R-leaning Indy.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 11:43 am

        Yeah. The excitement is almost entirely on the Democratic side. Which is unsurprising. The only way to match that is with GOP turnout and excitement, but what has the GOP House done to excite any Republican voter? By this time, Obama had signed the Lilly Ledbetter Act and the Stimulus package. Meanwhile, what does the GOP have to show?

        Tax reform is probably dead. Senate aides flat-out state there will be no immigration reform of any kind (including border security) because they’re just not interested. Obamacare is here to stay. They’re probably going to cave on Democratic demands for the budget.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • Left Coast Libertarian April 20, 2017 at 6:26 pm

          This is exactly what Kelsey Grammer said to me on Tuesday when he recorded the narration for my documentary. (Oh, name drop)

      • TexasR April 20, 2017 at 11:46 am

        This is just how the left operates. A loss is catastrophic and means that the country is too racist or whatever. A win proves that the country is headed toward the Permanent Democratic Majority ™.


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        Be careful what you wish for

      • marcus April 20, 2017 at 12:57 pm

        As a Democrat, I find the DCCC’s fundraising strategy to be pretty frustrating. I’m sure they must bring in contributions, but their email lists are pretty big, so you have a large number of people who normally support Democrats getting regular emails telling them to give up. And they wonder why we have an enthusiasm gap.


        34, Dem, MA-7

        • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 1:25 pm

          The fundraising emails are absolutely idiotic. People who are aware of races/andidates in situations like this and who have disposable income will donate without the stupid email barrage. They blast it to 80 billion people 14 times a day as if somehow that’s a wise marketing strategy.

    • prsteve11 April 20, 2017 at 1:31 pm

      I think the verdict of these special election results – particularly the one in Georgia – is that, while the Dems have a certain amount of enthusiasm, it’s being exaggerated by themselves and the media. Today, PPP (a Dem firm so take with a grain of salt) came out with a poll showing the Dems leading 47%-41% in the generic ballot (Marist found a similar result recently). Superficially, that sounds good but in reality that is probably not enough to flip the House and could well be exaggerated this far away from November 2018. PPP tried to talk up ‘enthusiasm’ numbers but they still only gave the Dems a 6 point lead in the generic. Polls generally showed much larger Dem leads in 2006, the last midterm election during a Republican administration.

      I think a big problem the Dems have is that they’re allowing themselves to be defined by the wackiest elements in their party, rather than offer reasoned stances as the opposition party. Ever since President Trump got elected in November, the Dems and liberals have made largely idiotic pursuits against Trump. First there were big demonstrations in the street right after a democratic election. Then there was a groundswell of money contributed to Jill Stein’s ludicrous recount efforts (Trump actually gained votes after a full statewide recount in Wisconsin). Then there was the shameless and childish harassment and threatening of presidential electors and other silly attacks on our constitutional system of electing a president. More recently, the Dems have decided to blame Russia for their ill fortunes in November 2016, in spite of the clearly very limited impact they had on the results. And then, of course, they also pinned huge national hopes on Jon Ossoff who ultimately gave them very mixed results on Tuesday by coming up short and really just mirroring Hillary’s losing level of support.

      And congressional Democrats haven’t helped their party either. They reflexively oppose anything President Trump does, usually with no good reason given. When the healthcare bill failed, they celebrated without offering a coherent plan of how to fix Obamacare which, by most accounts, is in trouble. Then they opposed and filibustered the eminently qualified Neil Gorsuch without giving any credible reason why. The list goes on, but I think I’ve made my point.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 1:46 pm

        All of this applies to any minority party. The Tea Party rallies of 2009-10 didn’t exactly present ways to improve healthcare or suggest bipartisanship of any kind but rather the yodels of “I want my country back” and “show us your birth certificate.” I’d posit there’s a pretty extreme similarity to birth certificate and Russia in how it played/is playing out.

        It’s all cyclical.

        • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 1:48 pm

          Agreed


          23, R, TN-08
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • krazen1211 April 20, 2017 at 10:54 am

    Camp Hillary is scrambling to see who leaked some of the dirt about the campaign in a new book.

    http://pagesix.com/2017/04/19/hillary-camp-scrambling-to-find-out-who-leaked-embarrassing-info/

    • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 10:57 am

      That makes me more inclined to actually buy the book. I normally don’t put any trust in these “YUUUUGE INSIDE REVELATION” books which are a normal thing after a failed presidential candidacy. But I might make an exception here, as this reaction and the fact that it’s not really one of the typical “anti-Clinton writers” who wrote this.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 10:54 am

    The CIA under John Brennan worked with foreign spy agencies in order to intentionally damage the Trump campaign.

    https://spectator.org/confirmed-john-brennan-colluded-with-foreign-spies-to-defeat-trump/

    It’s really time to revive an old Bernie Sanders idea – abolishing the CIA and trying to put as many of its employees in jail. Or maybe just declassifying every CIA document and mailing it to every news agency that’s willing to accept it.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • kewgardens April 20, 2017 at 1:16 pm

      Doesn’t say much about the quality of the CIA (or foreign intelligence agencies) that Trump still won.

      Trump had almost everything arrayed against him in the general election campaign (money, campaign organization, party disunity, media coverage, etc.) and still managed to win. It is kind of amazing.

  • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 11:28 am

    BREAKING NEWS: @jasoninthehouse tells KSL’s @DougWrightShow he might not finish his Congressional term


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Tekzilla April 20, 2017 at 12:40 pm

      Seems like there might be something else up besides a potential governor run.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 12:47 pm

        Early job offer, maybe?


        23, R, TN-08
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • shamlet April 20, 2017 at 12:54 pm

          Yeah, these tea leaves would point to him cashing out.


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • kewgardens April 20, 2017 at 1:54 pm

      I did not know this about Jason Chaffetz:

      “Chaffetz’s father was Jewish, and his paternal grandfather Maxwell (Max) Chaffetz (1909–1986), the son of immigrants from Russia, became an FBI Special Agent.[14] Chaffetz’s father’s first wife was Kitty Dukakis (née Dickson), who later married Michael Dukakis, future Massachusetts Governor and 1988 Democratic presidential nominee.[15][16] The relationship between Chaffetz’s father and Kitty Dukakis lasted four years[17] and produced Chaffetz’s elder half-brother John Dukakis (born John A. Chaffetz),[18] who was later adopted by Michael and Kitty Dukakis. While in college, Chaffetz worked as a Utah co-chairman of Michael Dukakis’ 1988 presidential campaign. As reported in 2009, Chaffetz remains close to his half-brother and the Dukakis family.[19]”

      “Raised Jewish, Chaffetz converted to Mormonism during his college years.[24][25]”

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Chaffetz

      • californianintexas April 20, 2017 at 5:52 pm

        Wow. I knew Chaffetz was originally Jewish and grew up in the Bay Area, but I didn’t know about the Dukakis connections.


        34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

        • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 6:17 pm

          Yeah, Chaffetz took a big political turn in his 20s.


          23, R, TN-08
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 12:52 pm

    Fiscal responsibility. It’s the conservative Republican way!

    http://legalinsurrection.com/2017/04/evan-mcmullin-up-to-his-nevertrump-eyeballs-in-campaign-debt/


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 1:27 pm

      That sign “Law Students Against Kleptocracy”….that just rolls off the tongue 🙂

  • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 1:39 pm

    Per volunteer who worked in Fulton County, the machine that gave everyone a headache runs on Windows 2000 software and uses a dial up modem

    https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/855104012214980608


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Manhatlibertarian April 20, 2017 at 1:47 pm

      My god even a total tech idiot like me doesn’t have a dial up modem anymore (Thank God). And of course it develops problems just as Ossoff hovers right above 50%, giving everyone massive angst for a couple of hours.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA April 20, 2017 at 3:22 pm

        I do not know why a voting machine even needs an internet connection. I have lived in 5 counties in Pennsylvania and none hook their voting machines up to the internet. All of them use some variation of a cartridge with backup paper ballots or printed results on something resembling a receipt.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

        • cinyc April 20, 2017 at 4:51 pm

          I don’t think the machine DDHQ is talking about was a traditional voting machine. It’s the machine that reads the memory cards with the results tallies taken out of the actual voting machines that transmits the data back to the Secretary of State.

          One of the memory cards was bad on Tuesday, which caused the big delay in Fulton results. They literally had to go through each card separately to figure out which one was causing the error.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 2:21 pm

      Could be worse. Behold: Detroit voting tallies.

      https://mobile.twitter.com/openelex/status/853977391747801088


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • roguemapper April 20, 2017 at 4:51 pm

        Those are not voting tallies. Michigan has absentee boards to count early ballots. In large counties and cities a given absentee board is assigned ballots from multiple precincts. That image is showing what precincts are assigned to what absentee board. In other words, absentee board #4 is counting the absentee ballots from precincts 40, 41, and 42.


        Dem NC-11

  • Manhatlibertarian April 20, 2017 at 2:07 pm

    I just realized that besides the Montana CD special election in May, there is a SC CD special election in June as well as Gov primaries in June in NJ and Va. The Va Dem Gov primary between Periello and Northham should be particularly hotly contested. So I know that Ossoff raised $500,000 right after his strong showing on primary night, but with all the other stuff going on can he continue to be the focus of national Dem attention and $ until June 20? I have my doubts.

    • cinyc April 20, 2017 at 5:00 pm

      Daily Kos is fully behind Ossoff. They aren’t as involved with the other candidates. As long as Ossoff is the shiny new thing, he’ll have the financial backing of the Kos types, which should raise him enough cash to be viable.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 3:06 pm

    Apparently, it’s not only middle class whites that are falling into death and despair. Millennials are doing so as well at comparable rates, possibly even higher. In many ways, this was the driver of the Bernie Sanders campaign, which was a phenomenon honestly more remarkable than the Trump candidacy.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-18/young-white-america-is-haunted-by-a-crisis-of-despair

    In a country where non-white millenials are still reliably liberal and white millenials have become the new wretched of the earth, I suspect it will be American capitalism that is headed to the ash heap of history unless we do something dramatic and radical to stop this.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Mugwump April 20, 2017 at 3:12 pm

      It’s time Republicans or Trump by force starts playing the immigration game against the Marxists. We can start with the remainder of the Boars in Rhodesia and South Africa.


      Trumpocrat who wants to MAGA WI-06

      • dforston April 20, 2017 at 3:16 pm

        Uhhhh

        • Mugwump April 20, 2017 at 3:19 pm

          The Immigration Act of 1965 was a power play by the Democratic Party. Why shouldn’t we do the same? We would make PA a safe state if we put 200k boar refugees in the state.


          Trumpocrat who wants to MAGA WI-06

          • shamlet April 20, 2017 at 3:26 pm

            I’m fully in favor of releasing 200,000 wild boars into Pennsylvania. Tasty hunting!


            R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Izengabe April 20, 2017 at 3:24 pm

        I’m cutting this off now! This is way off topic and I don’t like where it is going. Stick to horse race stuff.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 3:27 pm

      If I wasn’t clear, I was saying we probably need dramatic and radical reforms to our “economy” so that millennials of all cultural backgrounds stop drowning in misery and hating us.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • Greyhound April 20, 2017 at 3:41 pm

        Yeah, pretty much. If Fiscal Conservatives want to survive the next 20 years, they need to earn the confidence of American Millennials, who are a generation who have basically never had a positive experience with Capitalism in their entire lives. And that require more than complaining that we’re all a bunch of lazy losers who should watch more Reagan speeches.

        If not, Trump is probably going to be the closest thing to a small-government Conservative the US will have in power for the next few decades.


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

        • GOPTarHeel April 20, 2017 at 3:44 pm

          Yeah, I’m not a typical millennial (whatever that means) but I have zero toleration for older people who waltzed into middle class lifestyles right out of college with dirt-cheap college and cheap as hell real estate mocking my generation’s work ethic.


          R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

          • Izengabe April 20, 2017 at 3:49 pm

            Typical millennial who thinks college and housing was cheap in the 90s.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • GOPTarHeel April 20, 2017 at 3:53 pm

              The costs of college and housing have risen far faster than wages in the last 30 years.


              R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

              • krazen1211 April 20, 2017 at 4:07 pm

                This is absolutely true for college, and frankly you can throw in child care as well for the older millennials who are reaching that stage. Ivanka tax credit, perhaps?

                Housing, though, is completely a mixed bag based on size, location, and property taxes.

                The real test for the millenials and gen X, though, shouldn’t be 1980 compared to now, but probably 1999 compared to now.

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 4:17 pm

                  The problem with housing is that the increases in housing have been concentrated where almost all of the new jobs are. Almost all job growth in the United States in the last decade has taken place in a handful of metro areas. Those metro areas are where housing are the most expensive.

                  I know millennials who make upwards of $200k a year, but pay $6,000 a month for a rent (for a small family). Obviously, they couldn’t make that income in a city with lower rent because Middle America is an economic sinkhole.

                  Even many high-income, devout Christian millenials I know will freely state that socialism is a superior system and that Bernie’s economic platform was the right way forward. Even millenials from former Eastern bloc countries!


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                  • krazen1211 April 20, 2017 at 4:33 pm

                    Oh come on. I believe that you live somewhere in the San Francisco Bay Area, but that line is completely overstated.

                    If you want a certain type of job, in a certain type of industry, within walking distance to a whole foods or whatever other amenities one wants, yeah, there’s a problem. Even Bernie style Socialism isn’t going to solve scarcity of land on Manhattan. I don’t want an economic debate, but frankly there’s no need for us to bend over backwards to solve a problem for 1.6 million or so people who vote 90-10 against us.

                    Housing as a whole is generally much less of a problem relative to income in red state America. Child care, and arguably health care, go the other way.

                    This is a couple years old, but you know what the top state this decade for job growth per capita is outside of North Dakota (special case)? Utah.

                    http://www.economicmodeling.com/2014/05/08/state-with-most-per-capita-job-gains-since-2010/

                    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 4:39 pm

                      Well, the problem is that there just aren’t many jobs being created in red America. Even in a state like Utah, they’re probably all going to concrete in SLC. Just like all of the jobs being created in California concentrate in a small area. Childcare I think definitely is a bigger problem in the areas where housing is a bigger problem (for similar reasons).

                      I think we’re in agreement that the solution isn’t for the federal government to pay for overpriced San Francisco lofts, but I think we need to seriously consider why we are tolerating an economic system that is concentrating employment gains in such a tiny geographic space, in a way that clearly seems economically inefficient on an aggregate level.

                      And like many dilemmas about America, it probably goes back to the venality of Republican Party elites who refuse to entertain the notion that Americans outside of Scarsdale and Palo Alto and Chevy Chase might prioritize their basic subsistence over Spencerian platitudes.


                      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                    • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 5:54 pm

                      That analysis doesn’t really tell us anything; the correlation of job growth % and the overall ranking is extremely strong and the correlation between this ranking and a rankoing of US states by median age also shows an extremely high correlation. With population growth of non-seniors, particularly population growth via childbirth, comes job growth.

                      Sure there might be state specific stuff but give me (1) a list of states by population growth and (2) a list of states by median age and I could have constructed the list in this link without any of the jobs created info. The only state that falls meaningfully outside the correlation to those 2 lists is Florida because Florida is a mish-mash of soooo many things.

                    • krazen1211 April 20, 2017 at 6:16 pm

                      @RDW

                      Well, its a per capita list, which should net out population growth in some way, but you are basically correct in that Utah is a really young state and fast growing with lots of children and such, which is basically both your criteria.

                      Here’s another visualization of the Obama years.

                      http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2015/5/13/which-states-have-the-most-job-growth-since-the-recession

                      The point being that I think its rather silly to go around saying there’s no job growth in red America, especially when there’s 30 red states and 20 blue states (by 2016 figures) and probably more raw jobs in the former than the latter (I haven’t added up the numbers). The distribution within a state is another story, but I’m not aware of any housing shortage in Utah.

                      Its a mixed bag in any scenario; NM, NJ, AR, and WV for instance aren’t doing well in either picture. CO and UT seem to be fine.

                      I think there is some evidence that the rural areas of the Rust Belt 5 states that went Trump don’t have stellar economies, and that the areas themselves may be in decline. All these states have been losing CDs for a while. And as long as the Rust Belt effectively picks the President (probably true in 2020), I guess these areas will get some focus from both parties.

                    • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 6:20 pm

                      @Krazen
                      It’s more of a metro areas thing, not a states thing.


                      23, R, TN-08
                      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                    • californianintexas April 20, 2017 at 9:12 pm

                      There has been some talk of a potential housing shortage, but the report only looks at the lower increase of new housing units relative to the increase in population. I didn’t see anything about vacant older homes.

                      http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865675802/Utah-housing-shortage-headed-from-bad-to-worse.html


                      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

                  • AD123 April 20, 2017 at 4:43 pm

                    You would need to be a very high income individual in order for Bernie’s plan to really hurt you, esp. when you consider that most high income millennials are loaded with grad school and college debt.

                    Previous generations voted themselves tons of breaks and hand outs (see prop 13 and public union pensions). It’s really a question of when and how large it will be for millennials. And the cycle will continue on until we hit a real fiscal crisis at some point.

        • fzw April 20, 2017 at 5:24 pm

          I’m glad I’m not the only one here who thinks that. I made this same point several times a few months ago. I would still call myself a neoliberal, but the one thing that I hate the most about the Boomer generation is their utter lack of empathy or regard for how dramatically different the situation is for young people these days.


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

          • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 5:39 pm

            “The Greatest Generation” is the worst…blame Dan Rather. I mean does anyone have a grandparent or great aunt/uncle who doesn’t think that they themselves are the most amazing thing that ever existed?

            • Upstater22 April 20, 2017 at 5:55 pm

              When my grandfather was 20 he was storming North Africa, Siciliy, and Monte Cassino. Todays snowflakes cant handle a mean word. Yes, he was better than any millennial I know.


              Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

              • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 6:05 pm

                Oh good grief my roommate fought in Iraq and Afghanistan buy my grandmother was a housewife during WWII. Yes my roommate is greater than any grandmother ever.

                Could we be more ridiculous?

                • HS April 20, 2017 at 6:14 pm

                  The difference is a far higher percentage of the Greatest Generation experienced real issues and overcame them than Boomers, Generation X, or Millenials. This doesn’t mean every member of the former is better than every member of the latter, though.

                • fzw April 20, 2017 at 6:14 pm

                  Yeah, these posts read almost exactly like my uncle’s Facebook rants lol.

                  This special snowflake had a full ride at Mizzou before transferring to Cornell for reasons entirely unrelated to what I want to do with my life now. But I don’t regret at all doing it. I’m going into the Navy before law school which I just as easily could have done from Mizzou, too.


                  Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                  R-leaning Indy.

            • jncca April 20, 2017 at 6:20 pm

              None of my relatives feel that way, but of course among Jews it’s the “Holocaust generation” more than it’s the “Greatest generation”


              24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • Upstater22 April 20, 2017 at 5:53 pm

            The biggest difference is that kids have been brainwashed into believing that they are all special and all need to go to big name or D-1 schools to be successful. The school I went to cost $5000/year for tuition + room and board. I’m making 6 figures alongside the people who went to Clarkson, RIT, RPI, Cornell. My school (which oh by the way produced one of the most poweful Republicans in the House) now costs $7500/year. There is absolutely nothing wrong with going the community college -> state school route. But kids get brainwashed into believing going to Cornell for 4-6 years to get a degree in *.studies is a good idea.


            Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

            • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 6:01 pm

              Shakes fist in anger.

              You keep piping this but there are millions of people who do literally the community college to 4-year state school thing. Clarkson/RIT/RPI/Cornell can all be exceptionally valuable colleges to go to in numerous circumstances (hell Cornell’s Hospitality School somehow matters). You act like a whole generation is lost because you’re seeing anti-Trump protests are Faber College (or something) that is completely detached from the reality of most of 2017 college campuses.

              • Upstater22 April 20, 2017 at 6:34 pm

                You bring up another good point…too many people going to college who dont need to go to college, driving up costs for everyone else.

                There are plenty of jobs out there. The problem is the jobs that are open dont match the skills that are available. Too many snowflakes being told “you can do whatever you want if you put your mind to it!” and “chase your dreams!”. No, do what will make you money and make you a living. Too many who want to be professional video game players instead of wanting to clean up old peoples poop (always in demand!)


                Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

                • fzw April 20, 2017 at 6:37 pm

                  Feel free to come to Ithaca anytime you want and I can introduce you to two of my friends working as EMT’s who routinely cleanup feces without protesting.


                  Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                  R-leaning Indy.

                  • Upstater22 April 20, 2017 at 7:00 pm

                    This bumpkin from Tioga County knows plenty of people in the medical industry, thanks. But you help to make my point. EMT is not glamorous, but it is in demand, pays decently well, doesnt require a college degree, and offers a path up. Working your way up as an EMT is probably a better life choice than spending $420,000 to go to Cornell for 6 years to get a degree in womens studies.


                    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • Ryan_in_SEPA April 20, 2017 at 3:43 pm

        How is this the case though in a place like Western Pennsylvania, which has more blue collar jobs now than 20 years ago due to the boom in natural gas extraction?


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

        • Greyhound April 20, 2017 at 3:52 pm

          Honestly, its more of a morale thing than a specific lack of jobs. The fact that basically every trend line is negative takes its toll.


          R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

      • HS April 20, 2017 at 3:44 pm

        Are you sure it is economic problems that are driving this? I am not.

        One of the things mentioned above was the left-wings belief that the US is not a good nation. Contrary to some here, the liberals from 30 plus years ago – JFK types – did not see our country as a horrible place that is primarily colonialist, sexist, racist, etc. (They did want to liberalize it, however.) This is especially why the old Democrats were not necessarily as dovish as the modern day ones. But now, most D’s do. And this is taught in schools.

        So, surprise, surprise, many people are exhausted and depressed about poor economic prospects combined with endless flagellation for perceived flaws for their racism, etc.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA April 20, 2017 at 3:40 pm

      I have little to no sympathy for anyone who was abled bodied and could not find a decent job in western Pennsylvania during the time frame referenced in the article as there was the biggest natural resource boom in recent memory going on in the region that required tons of low skilled labor and offered tens of thousands of well paying jobs. That has cooled off a bit, but there are more blue collar jobs in the region now than 20 years ago as long as you can pass a drug test.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • StatenIslandTest April 20, 2017 at 3:18 pm

    NJ-Gov: Gina Genovese, former Mayor of Long Hill in Morris County and the leader of a group encouraging municipal consolidation running for Gov as an Indie:
    https://www.insidernj.com/genovese-announces-independent-candidacy-governor/

    Could have a lot of influence on both nominees agendas as I think consolidation is probably one way to solve the property tax crisis.


    31, Jersey City

    • RRR April 20, 2017 at 8:25 pm

      It’s the absolute best way, no question, no doubt. Economies of scale, for one…

      When every freaking borough, township, and city – many of which in Jersey are the size of a postage stamp – has to have its own property tax-funded department or district for every municipal service, the taxpayers suffer. For instance, start with Mendham Township and Borough, which split during the boroughitis craze solely because of… municipal sewers and their absence. Seriously.

      That said, voters will seldom approve such metrics because of NIMBYism. Good for Princeton Borough and Township voters for approving their merger.


      NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Bronxville Test conservative
      Victories can be Pyrrhic

  • GOPTarHeel April 20, 2017 at 3:34 pm

    Tangentially-election related here: A Romney son is competing with the Bush family and the Kushners in a potential bidding war over the Marlins. https://twitter.com/soshnick/status/855138905083039744


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

  • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 3:52 pm

    Berkeley Campus On Lockdown After Loose Pages From ‘Wall Street Journal’ Found On Park Bench

    http://www.theonion.com/article/berkeley-campus-lockdown-after-loose-pages-wall-st-55815


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Tekzilla April 20, 2017 at 9:41 pm

      Got me laughing.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 4:14 pm

    There’s a situation (ongoin?) in Paris where a police officer was shot by two people, ahead of France’s First Round of Elections this sunday.

    Regardless of this, I hope, hope, hope that Le Pen makes it to the 2nd round. Yes, she’ll propably lose, but losing out in the 1st round would be absolutely horrible.

    • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 4:37 pm

      A second police officer died due to his injuries it seems.

    • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 5:37 pm

      Breaking: the IS just claimed to have carried out this attack. Fwiw, they like to claim stuff like this for themselves.

  • dforston April 20, 2017 at 4:14 pm

    Hmmmm….
    1. Congressman announces resignation out of nowhere to return to private sector and spend more time with family
    2. Then start hearing he may leave office soon
    3. https://twitter.com/jasoninthehouse/status/855140390185324544

    • shamlet April 20, 2017 at 4:20 pm

      Reality TV show maybe? This is getting weirder and weirder.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • cer April 20, 2017 at 6:23 pm

        I can just see it now, the life and times of an ex Congressman on Lifetime TV.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

    • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 4:38 pm

      funny


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • TheWizardOf144 April 20, 2017 at 5:08 pm

        Or she’s going to run for the seat.

        • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 5:41 pm

          He’s sick of being away from family so he’s trading places with her?

          • jncca April 20, 2017 at 6:22 pm

            That was Dennis Moore’s argument in 2010!


            24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • rdw72777 April 20, 2017 at 5:44 pm

      This thing is just weird because…why would you announce you might (key word) not finish your term? Like what is the point of that in any mentality? I feel like he’s is resigned to resigning at some point….like people who are engaged to be engaged…it’s just a very weird thing. Does he just like media attention and sees this as a slow news time where he can soak it up?

    • californianintexas April 20, 2017 at 6:50 pm

      Utah actually has no clear procedure for filling vacancies in the House. Almost nobody today was alive when the only special election to the U.S. House since statehood occurred, in 1930 after Elmer O. Leatherwood (R) died and Frederick Charles Loofbourow (R) was elected.


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

  • Conservative First April 20, 2017 at 5:34 pm

    MI-Senate: Upton sorta considering
    http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/04/20/upton-senate/100709478/

    • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 5:38 pm

      Am I having a deja vu here?

    • rdelbov April 20, 2017 at 6:17 pm

      Upton would not be my 1st choice. Young and charismatic would be it for me. Someone without a DC post on their resume. Someone for the future and not the past.

    • Izengabe April 20, 2017 at 6:20 pm

      Kate or Fred? Kate would make it lean GOP


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • krazen1211 April 20, 2017 at 6:21 pm

        Kate Upton was born in 1992!

        • TexasR April 20, 2017 at 6:22 pm

          Well, she could run for her uncle’s seat if he takes the plunge. 😉


          Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
          Be careful what you wish for

        • edtorres04 April 20, 2017 at 7:15 pm

          Kate’s boyfriend Justin would be better.

          • Republican Michigander April 21, 2017 at 12:45 am

            As a Tigers fan, we need Justin to stay right where he is.


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Republican Michigander April 21, 2017 at 12:43 am

      He’s a bit liberal for my tastes, but I’d consider him if he gives this campaign the work ethic it deserves. I’m voting for the hardest worker (unless it’s a Joe Schwarz type). I’m sick of lazy (or hung out to dry) senate campaigns.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 5:37 pm

    Quist raised 2 million. No surprise.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • The Emperor April 20, 2017 at 7:30 pm

      I don’t think Gianaforte is taking it on the backburner like Estes, and he can self fund


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

  • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 5:38 pm

    Paris shooter was known to French security services for radical Islamist activities, source tells CNN https://t.co/eMxDGnffk3

    Is God interfering in the election here for Le Pen?


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 5:39 pm

      ISIS claims the attack in Paris, gives name as Abu Yusuf, Belgian national. https://t.co/rpR9lZ9Vi5


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • HS April 20, 2017 at 5:49 pm

      Le Pen is only benefitting because the other parties have been ignoring the major issue of bringing in unvetted Muslim immigrants, not integrating them, and allowing radical groups to preach in the mosque. And now trying to hide the resulting terror.

      I doubt this will be enough though. It might get her into the 2nd round, but not make her President.

    • jncca April 20, 2017 at 6:23 pm

      A shooting of a couple cops won’t influence the second round vote, which is in about 20 days. And that’s the one that matters for Le Pen.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • Greyhound April 20, 2017 at 6:53 pm

        Eh, she is currently in danger of not even making it that far. She probably will, but when there are 2 candidates ~2% below you in the polling averages, you can’t take anything for granted.


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

        • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 11:53 pm

          Yeah, Im worried (well, I always worry) about her prospects there… I took some time yesterday to read a translation of the FN platform and saw some Interviews with her.
          There are some things which are downright scary, but Im Still hoping very much that she gets elected – which she wont.
          But I believe that only with her victory,the EU will finally be force to adjust and reform which is a vital thing as it Stands.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 20, 2017 at 11:57 pm

            Hey, the EU would also probably have to adjust if Melenchon was the candidate. If I were French, I’d probably vote Melenchon just because Le Pen is such a goner in the second round.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • GerGOP April 21, 2017 at 12:12 am

              With Melancholisch, you can also kiss goodbye to all your income and your children.
              And he’s also the dude who said that an over militarization of the Police is to blame for the Terror attack.

      • GerGOP April 20, 2017 at 11:58 pm

        You’re right. This attack was way too small to have a meaningful impact on Le Pens Chances
        Dont read this as a hope for something bigger.

        • Greyhound April 21, 2017 at 12:11 am

          ISIS-Inspired terrorist attacks in Europe are also kind of mundane now. They lose their shock value after the first thirty or so. If I was Le Pen I’d actually try to make that into a campaign message–“I want to live in a Europe where triple murders are considered national tragedies and not mundane news stories”


          R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

          • GerGOP April 21, 2017 at 12:12 am

            That’s almost Exactly what she said. ^^

  • krazen1211 April 20, 2017 at 7:05 pm

    There they go again. Same Texas Court keeps flinging out these rulings.

    https://www.dallasnews.com/news/texas-legislature/2017/04/20/federal-court-rules-texas-house-map-drawn-intentionally-dilute-minority-votes

    In Dallas County for instance, we cut 2 Republican held districts in order to reduce the delegation from 16 to 14. And we had to bump the remaining districts up to population in some way.

    I am carefully watching for appeals.

    • Jon April 20, 2017 at 7:28 pm

      Is that at least on the actual current state house map? (as opposed to the earlier one that was replaced)


      45, M, MO-02

      • krazen1211 April 20, 2017 at 10:05 pm

        Nah its the 2011 (never used) maps again. Same as the Congressional.

  • edtorres04 April 20, 2017 at 7:41 pm

    Question about Montana poll: will you test the senate race? If so, I recommend testing Tester against Fox, O’Neill, rosendale, and even Zinke.

    • cinyc April 20, 2017 at 8:55 pm

      Remember – adding questions adds costs, especially when you’re using live operators (or is Montana like Georgia, where you only need to have a live operator dial and get people to accept the poll?) It also lowers response rates. The costs are up to 10x higher to ask multiple questions in a Google Survey, for example, if RRH decides to add a Google Survey component, as in past RRH polls to reach younger voters.

      We haven’t seen many polls of the Montana-AL race. Gravis somehow polled the Montana AL race – the only real pollster to do so so far. They found Gianforte up by 12, IIRC. There have also been a series of (crappy) Google Surveys conducted by Internet users. Those have all shown Quist in the lead or a tie, ranging from my unbelievable March poll showing Quist up by 17 (weighted to 2014 turnout) or 14 (unweighted), to a recent Google Survey listed on Wikipedia that is Quist +1 or Gianforte +1 (weighted).

      FWIW (and again, probably not much), I actually bought another Google Survey yesterday afternoon before I knew RRH was polling. Once a sucker, always a sucker, I suppose. I should have waited a day and just contributed to the RRH poll. At least the results of my Google Survey so far are plausible. It’s less than half done, so plausibility can easily change.

      • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 9:19 pm

        Thanks!


        28, M, R, NY-10

      • shamlet April 20, 2017 at 9:34 pm

        We’re not polling for sure yet… we’re just trying to fundraise and see if we get enough cash to pull the trigger. We came pretty close to bankrupting the site with the GA-6 poll so we want to make sure we have (at least most of) the cash ready to go in advance this time.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Tekzilla April 20, 2017 at 9:45 pm

          I might have asked this before, my memory is clearly leaving me in my old age, but have you contacted David Nir or the people at DKE to maybe split the load and work together on polling? Might not be feasible since the base of commentators on both sides have become more partisan, but hey you never know. Or even a more permanent relationship with DDHQ?

          Along that note, kinda surprised DK in general didn’t do polling in 2016 after doing so much with PPP in 2012.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • Boehnerwasright April 20, 2017 at 10:16 pm

            I would love to see something like this, but I fear the differences are to great. Just today there was a disscussion on DKE about the ”tone” on RRH and how unreasonable many commentors here are since Trump got elected. Which is astonishing if you read the comments under their GA-06 liveblog.
            The amount of republican bashing, conspiracies and general hate against our side was insane.

            • Tekzilla April 20, 2017 at 11:29 pm

              The comment section on RRH has indeed moved rightward since Trump, Democrats post less and there has been an influx of Trump supporting posters, thats not really deniable. However DKE’s comment section has also moved left, I post less, Jncca has been banned etc. So both sites have changed. It’s up to us not on the fringes to try and make the best of both sites IMO.

              Would love to see it happen.


              36/M/NY-01 (D)

              • GOPTarHeel April 20, 2017 at 11:37 pm

                Republicans have become significantly more apocalyptic and Democrats have become significantly more moralistic in the last year across the board. It makes sense that filtered to DKE and RRH as well. But we should respect good analysis no matter where it comes from. I can respect Stephen Wolf’s hard work collecting data and trust his numbers even while his preachy self-righteousness about NC issues makes me want to scream.


                R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

              • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 11:46 pm

                It’s been brought up before. We’d love to do it, but apparently some parties are against it. Nir did recently vouch for us on something else, though. The possibility isn’t completely dead, but the opposition isn’t coming from us. If it were, we could fix it. As of now, it’s out of our hands.


                23, R, TN-08
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • Izengabe April 21, 2017 at 12:46 am

                RRH has moved rightward since Trump? Really? To me it seems the commentators have become less conservative since Trump was elected. In fact I sometimes think people have forgotten what it means to be a conservative and post stuff that would have got them called a pinko Democrat leftist pre-2015.


                Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                • roguemapper April 21, 2017 at 12:59 am

                  I’m just happy that boar supremacy is still beyond the pale…


                  Dem NC-11

                  • Izengabe April 21, 2017 at 1:22 am

                    You’re goddamn right that crap is beyond the pale!


                    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                  • shamlet April 21, 2017 at 3:54 am

                    Hell yes. Boar supremacy might lead to a ban on bacon and I don’t want to live in that world!


                    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

                    • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 4:01 am

                      Even worse for me. I’m from Memphis! Pork is our whole existence!


                      23, R, TN-08
                      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                    • shamlet April 21, 2017 at 7:11 am

                      @SOTS A wonderful, magical animal! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tsdmqhn50uM


                      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

                    • californianintexas April 22, 2017 at 1:50 am

                      @SOTS

                      Cincinnati is nicknamed “Porkopolils”. It’s pork-producing history still influences the city today.


                      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

                  • Republican Michigander April 21, 2017 at 10:05 am

                    Hey now…. most of my ancestors lived “beyond the pale” and they weren’t boars or Boers.

                    For those who don’t know the origin of that saying, the original Pale was the territory of Ireland under English rule in the Middle Ages, basically from Dublin to Dundalk. The area not controlled by the English was “beyond the Pale.”


                    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

                    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 21, 2017 at 10:45 am

                      There are also presumably a lot of people here with ancestors from the Pale of Settlement in Russia!


                      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • MosheM April 20, 2017 at 8:02 pm

    America 2017: Senator Ted Cruz writes glowing Time 100 testimonial about billionaire megadonor to his Super PAC. https://t.co/rO8zpOmwo6 https://t.co/obllJEY34O


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • bluewahoo April 20, 2017 at 8:25 pm

    Charlottesville Democrat announces against Garrett in the VA 5th.

    http://www.roanoke.com/news/virginia/democrat-to-seek-garrett-s-seat-in/article_bdabd675-d541-5a6f-8f13-66db08305a36.html

  • kewgardens April 20, 2017 at 9:48 pm

    One of the finest members of the Greatest Generation continues to show he has the right stuff.
    https://www.instagram.com/p/BTIHgzUhlOp/

    Get well soon!!!

  • Manhatlibertarian April 20, 2017 at 9:56 pm

    DNC Deputy Chair Keith Ellison has attacked former Pres Obama, saying that Dem losses in 2016 are partly his fault. In fact he attacks Obama’s role during his entire presidency, saying he was good at getting himself elected, but did not do a good job building the Dem party. As a result Ellison says his legacy is in jeopardy.

    Well I don’t particularly like Ellison and I’m sure what he says won’t go over well in some quarters, but I have to admit there is a big element of truth in what he says. Obama left the Dems in shambles. And I thought it was all Putin’s fault!

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/329763-ellison-obama-deserves-blame-for-democratic-losses

    • Izengabe April 21, 2017 at 12:49 am

      Better yet explain that to 2004!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • rdelbov April 20, 2017 at 10:54 pm

    Another guy in for CO6-at least he lives in district

    http://www.denverpost.com/2017/04/20/aurora-democrat-david-aarestad-challenge-mike-coffman/

  • Greyhound April 20, 2017 at 11:38 pm

    In one of the more hilarious political stories I’ve seen in a while, Moon Jae-in, one of the candidates running for President of South Korea, has released a pair of free Starcraft maps to promote his campaign. No, seriously:

    http://www.espn.com/esports/story/_/id/19201166/south-korean-presidential-front-runner-taps-starcraft-fans-two-new-maps

    On a related note, Korea might be the only other country in the world where the Left-wing party is Blue and the Right-wing party is Red.


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • Son_of_the_South April 20, 2017 at 11:48 pm

      Isn’t Starcraft the unofficial national sport of South Korea?


      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Greyhound April 21, 2017 at 12:04 am

        It was, now its just more generally ESports. They kick everyone’s ass at basically every single one that isn’t CS:GO, to the point where international esports championships are pretty much SK-exclusive events.

        Still, this is kind of hilarious to me in ways I can’t really explain.


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • shamlet April 21, 2017 at 7:19 am

      I thought the left-wing party in SK was green? Those parties have an incredibly annoying habit of changing their names every 18 months or so though.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Greyhound April 21, 2017 at 1:09 am

    Latest UK Poll suggests that by merely announcing the snap election, May has swiped about a third of the UKIP’s total support.
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/04xxn42p3e/TimesResults_170419_VI_Trackers_GE_W.pdf
    Of note–Conservatives are up everywhere but Scotland (where they are at 29% to the SNP’s 49%), including being up 45-32 in the (former) Labor stronghold of Northern England, representing a 26-point movement in their favor there compared to 2015. That alone would flip 50 seats (out of the 110 Labor seats currently in the region) based on uniform swing.

    The Tories are also up 42-36 in Greater London, representing a 15-point swing from their 2015 showing there.


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • Greyhound April 21, 2017 at 2:03 am

      Also, Labour is in serious danger of dropping to a single seat South of Coventry outside of Greater London (Oxford East). They’re on track to lose Bristol West to the Greens, Cambridge to the LibDems, and every other seat they have in the South was close enough that the Tories could flip it.

      Tories are also on track to win a majority of the seats in Birmingham/Black Country, wipe Labour out of Northern Wales and Cardiff(!), Stoke-on-Trent, and crack into Tyneside and South Yorkshire.


      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

      • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 2:30 am

        Wow. Something tells me this is too good to be true, but wow. Slough AND Exeter?!? Wait, there’s no way they’re losing Bristol East, though.

        Good lord, and to think that the Black Country almost birthed a Communist revolution a hundred years ago. If I see a Tory seat in South Yorkshire, I’ll eat Paddy Ashdown’s hat! (only if it’s the marzopan one, though)


        23, R, TN-08
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • Greyhound April 21, 2017 at 2:32 am

          This is what happens when you are literally doubling your main competitor’s %


          R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

          • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 2:35 am

            And Dimbleby is coming out of retirement!!!

            http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39657843

            It’s like Christmas come early.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • Greyhound April 21, 2017 at 3:19 am

              Well, he has to bookend his career with his coverage of Massive wins by Female Tory Leaders.


              R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

        • Greyhound April 21, 2017 at 3:17 am

          Wait, why not Bristol East?


          R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

          • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 3:32 am

            Oops. I had it in my head that Bristol East had a 10,000 vote Labour margin. It’s 4,000 votes. My bad. Still, you could make an argument that a seat like that, fairly strong for Remain and all, is much less likely to fall, than, say, Great Grimsby. Also, it looks like the average of polls isn’t painting as dire of a picture for Labour – something like 380 seats for the Tories instead of 415. Still a huge win, but not bigger than ’83. Then again, I believe YouGov was the best pollster last time. Whatever happens, this is damn exciting.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • LtNOWIS April 21, 2017 at 2:44 am

    Former Maryland Congressman Lawrence Hogan Sr (R), father of Governor Larry Hogan, died at the age of 88 tonight.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/lawrence-j-hogan-sr-md-republican-who-called-for-nixons-impeachment-dies-at-88/2017/04/20/80fe7f5c-251e-11e7-a1b3-faff0034e2de_story.html


    28, VA-11

    • rdelbov April 21, 2017 at 9:30 am

      Hogan was on judiciary committee during WATERGATE/IMPEACHMENT VOTES

    • RRR April 21, 2017 at 11:00 am

      How lovely it is that he lived long enough to see his son elected governor.


      NY-07 via IL-09/PA-07; Bronxville Test conservative
      Victories can be Pyrrhic

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