Political Roundup for April 21, 2017

Governor:

FL-Gov: Ex-Rep. Gwen Graham (D) is apparently close to formally announcing a run for governor. She said she would make an announcement about whether she plan to run “soon”, defining soon as something between tomorrow and two more months. A big obstacle to her running was recently removed as her husband, undergoing cancer treatment, was told his cancer was in remission. Two Democrats are already running-Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and businessman Chris King, and trial lawyer John Morgan is also considering running.

GA-Gov: State Sen. Burt Jones (R) is considering joining the race for governor. LG Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp are already running on the Republican side. Jones was a former team captain for the University of Georgia Bulldogs football team in 2002. He says he intends to make a decision about running in the next couple of months

OH-Gov: Ex-Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) is holding a town hall in Dayton on Monday, fueling speculation he may be interested in running for governor. The town hall will follow a press conference in Columbus earlier in the day to discuss “the impact of privatization on Ohio’s public schools.” Although Kucinich’s name has not been discussed much in connection with the race, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball website mentioned him yesterday as someone “looming in the background” of the race.

OK-Gov: State Rep. Scott Inman (D) announced yesterday he is joining the race for governor. Inman, who is term-limited out of the House, joined former state Sen. Connie Johnson (D) and retired auto mechanic Norman Brown in the Democratic primary. LG Todd Lamb (R), State Auditor Gary Jones (R) and attorney Gary Richardson are running on the Republican side.

House:

MD-6: State House Majority Leader William Frick (D) has begun raising money for a congressional run in anticipation of Rep. John Delaney (D) potentially vacating the seat to run for governor. Although he has filed paperwork to raise money for the race, he has not filed to be on the ballot yet.

NE-2: Ex-Rep. Brad Ashford (D) says either he or his wife, Ann will run for Congress against Rep. Don Bacon (R) next year. He says “One of us is running next year. And you can take that to the bank.” Right now, he says his wife is leaning towards running. The two Ashfords have one thing in common-both are former Republicans. Brad was a registered Republican and later an independent while serving in the Legislature and then became a Democrat after leaving. Ann was a registered Republican until changing her registration at the end of last year after voting for Hillary Clinton.

NM-1: Two Democrats announced bids yesterday for this open seat. Albuquerque city councilman Pat Davis, who also is executive director of liberal group Progress Now New Mexico joined former University of New Mexico law professor Antoinette Sedillo Lopez in announcing their intentions to run for the seat left open by Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), who is running for governor.

UT-3: It appears Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R), who already announced on Wednesday that he wouldn’t seek re-election next year, may not even serve out the rest of his term. Chaffetz said during an interview with a local radio talk show that he is considering leaving office early. The situation would present a difficult scenario-state law is unclear about the process for holding a special congressional election. State law only says that in case of a vacancy, the governor shall call for a special election. No timetable or process is spelled out. The last time a vacancy in a congressional seat in Utah occurred was in December 1929, and in that case the special election was not held until the next scheduled general election in November 1930. Utah has gone the 3rd longest period of time without a special congressional election behind Delaware(1900) and Idaho, which has never held a special congressional election since statehood in 1890.

VA-10: State Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D) announced yesterday that she is challenging Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) next year. Wexton is the 4th Democrat to join the race, and the one many Democrats think has the best chance of beating Comstock. She joins Army veteran Daniel Helmer, former Obama Administration official Lindsey Davis Stover and former Fairfax County teacher’s union president Kimberly Adams. Others, including Dorothy McAuliffe, wife of Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) are thinking about running.

State & Local:

OK-LG: Former OK Republican Party Chairman Matt Pinnell announced yesterday he plans to run for Lieutenant Governor. Pinnell served as state Republican Party Chairman during the 2010 and 2012 election cycles and was the youngest state GOP chairman in the country at the time.

Omaha Mayor: Women’s rights groups are criticizing the DNC for holding an event in Omaha featuring mayoral candidate Heath Mello (D) because Mello voted for pro-life bills as a state senator. The Daily Kos has also withdrawn their endorsement of Mello after discovering his voting record on the issue.

International:

UK-general election: Former UKIP Leader Nigel Farage says he will not stand as a candidate in the upcoming general election. He considered running for UKIP in Clacton, where MP Douglas Carswell announced that he will not run for re-election. Carswell was UKIP’s only MP before leaving the party to sit as an independent earlier this year. Farage has failed 7 times previously in being elected to Parliament. He also predicted the Tories would win a large majority and knowing that fact would allow UKIP voters to vote their conscience.

 

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133 Comments

  • MosheM April 21, 2017 at 7:44 am

    Omaha

    That cheered me up. They have their own Kamikazes as well?


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM April 21, 2017 at 7:50 am

      Only 724 comments. Read and enjoy.

      http://m.dailykos.com/story/2017/4/20/1654645/-Daily-Kos-statement-on-withdrawing-endorsement-of-Heath-Mello


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • Tekzilla April 21, 2017 at 8:00 am

        Sigh


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • Ryan_in_SEPA April 21, 2017 at 8:24 am

          It was funny then it got annoying now it is sad and I am a Republican!


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

          • cer April 21, 2017 at 9:27 am

            I love it when those on the left eat their own.

            • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 9:42 am

              Yeah, and I’m sure they have the same amount of schadenfreude when we do the same. I will admit, though, this is a pretty egregious example.


              23, R, DC-AL
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • cer April 21, 2017 at 10:21 am

                I’m proud to be part of a movement that has respect for life.

                However, trying to destroy people that don’t take the 100% desired position on that issue, makes NO sense to me.

                • Left Coast Libertarian April 21, 2017 at 10:35 am

                  Some people in the Democrats coalition hate, yes, hate, anyone who is a white straight male and would rather that person not be a Democrat. Who wants to be in a party with someone who is evil? Yet, there often is very little difference between the beliefs of these bold progressives and their counterparts who LGBT or of color. It has to be frustrating to be held with such contempt by the very people they believe they’re fighting for.

                  Of course, progressives aren’t going to vote Republican no matter how much hate they get. Those like Heath Mello who don’t adhere to progressive orthodoxy may vote Republican.

            • Tekzilla April 21, 2017 at 9:49 am

              And no offense, but things like this are why switching parties isn’t an option for me. Some days I do wish we had a viable 3rd option for people near the Center.


              36/M/NY-01 (D)

              • zbigreddogz April 21, 2017 at 10:15 am

                You’re not going to switch parties because you want the party you identify with to punish any dissent whatsoever on an absolute right to an abortion?

                Am I understanding you correctly?

                • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 10:21 am

                  I highly doubt that. He’s probably referring to a dislike of Cer’s schadenfreude.


                  23, R, DC-AL
                  Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                  • cer April 21, 2017 at 10:24 am

                    Some on the left go way out of their way to point out their pleasure when our side does it. I just think that at times turnabout is fair game.

                    • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 10:28 am

                      Fair enough. I just wanted to prevent a derail or a flame war that would result in suspensions.


                      23, R, DC-AL
                      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 21, 2017 at 10:51 am

                      Actual Democratic politicians openly laugh and cheer at the death of voters that they percieve as not voting for them, so at that point, I think I’ve given up on the concept of viewing them as a legitimate opposition that I’d like to coexist with. Which is disappointing since most of the GOP hardly sets my heart aflutter.

                      For all of its flaws, no GOP politician would laugh at the death of black kids in South Side Chicago and justify themselves by saying “well, it’s good we have fewer black people now”.


                      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                    • rdw72777 April 21, 2017 at 11:49 am

                      “Actual Democratic politicians openly laugh and cheer at the death of voters that they percieve as not voting for them,”

                      What?

                    • VastBlightKingConspiracy April 21, 2017 at 11:58 am

                      http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/apr/14/richard-fochtmann-maine-democrats-at-values-and-vi/


                      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                    • shamlet April 21, 2017 at 1:04 pm

                      @VBKC – This first post is over-the-top in tone and not constructive. Posts like this just lead to unproductive flamewars. Please choose your words more carefully. Let’s end this discussion.


                      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

                  • Tekzilla April 21, 2017 at 11:59 am

                    Yes, you nailed it.

                    It happens on both sites and both parties admittedly, but it registers more coming from people who I disagree with more policy wise I suppose. So like if I were to ever consider switching, seeing comments like that give me great pause.


                    36/M/NY-01 (D)

                • Tekzilla April 21, 2017 at 11:57 am

                  My goodness no, I am for a very big tent with diverse ideas. I get very upset at my party for being harsh to some pro-life folks, especially fellow democrats.


                  36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • bluewahoo April 21, 2017 at 9:36 am

        Is Mello the certified Democrat running? Shouldn’t this stuff come out in a primary? If not, then this is the horse the wagon’s hitched to. Why is it a surprise to anyone the DNC is trying to elect…you know… democrats?

        Were there similar meltdowns about John Bel Edwards being a Democrat?

        • fzw April 21, 2017 at 9:48 am

          That’s what I was thinking. Are you seriously going to Christine O’Donnell away a very winnable race just because of an issue that a mayor has almost no say in? Who would they rather have: a nominally pro-life Democrat who supports Planned Parenthood or a pro-life Republican who definitely won’t support the cause? Whatever


          NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
          #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

          • MosheM April 21, 2017 at 9:52 am

            The thing is that he seems to be genuinely pro-life from his numerous votes. Also signed a petition for KXL.


            28, M, R, NY-10

            • fzw April 21, 2017 at 9:56 am

              He said he supports Planned Parenthood and the “women’s reproductive rights,” so that’s about as good as liberals are going to get if it’s him vs. Stothert. Unless they wanna wait four years or try a recall lol.


              NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
              #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

      • andyroo312 April 21, 2017 at 10:24 am

        Nuts. Without Mellos, the Democrats haven’t a prayer of taking back the House.


        MA-7

      • The Anonymous User April 21, 2017 at 10:26 am

        I saw that last night, and it was an extremely boneheaded move. You do not unendorse candidates because they aren’t 100% perfect, unless you guys want Stohert to be reelected because of you. Mello is the best Democrats can get. If you wanted someone better, you should have discovered this before the primary instead of when it’s a 1v1. Really disappointed in the mods about this. I expected better from them.


        Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

        • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 10:29 am

          Well, I’m pretty sure that DKos was protecting it’s butt among the mainpagers. There’s money involved, after all.


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • rdw72777 April 21, 2017 at 1:14 pm

            There’s more money in faux-outrage than anything these days. It’s USA’s #1 growth industry.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA April 21, 2017 at 8:29 am

      This mentality is why the Republican Party still holds so many seats in suburban Philadelphia. The Democratic logic is that a D+2 seat means run a BOLD PROGRESSIVE like the seat is D+10!


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • segmentation_fault April 21, 2017 at 9:13 am

      The only reason this is creating controversy is because Bernie is campaigning with Mello this week.

    • Izengabe April 21, 2017 at 11:27 am

      What everyone is missing is that being disavowed by the far left is the best thing that could happen to Mello. He is running Mayor of Omaha not San Francisco. They elect Republicans there and being a progressive wack-a-do doesnt help you win. Hell if I was running his campaign I would have reached out to Kos and asked them to do this. This is like Br’er rabbit being asked not to be thrown in the brier patch.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • StatenIslandTest April 21, 2017 at 3:00 pm

        Kinda funny but not surprising. The hard-liners on both sides dont understand about other coalitions particularly on the other sides turf. I thought after 2004 the Dems were more open to pro-life candidates but I guess they are pulling back on that.


        31, Jersey City

  • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 8:49 am

    UK-election: Two good articles

    This one is about how several Labour MPs (some in safe seats, some not) are scurrying for the exits.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/more-labour-mps-stand-down-before-snap-poll-election-anxiety-over-seats

    Here’s a good Tory and and LibDem target seats article.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/target-seats-ones-watch-general-election-2017how-theresa-may/


    23, R, DC-AL
    Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • MosheM April 21, 2017 at 9:53 am

    With Gorsuch’s decision last night on the Arkansas execution and the 4 liberal dissents. I think that it’s pretty clear that a Garland court would have overturned the death penalty 5-4.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • rdelbov April 21, 2017 at 10:06 am

      Little doubt in my mind—at least the liberal 5 would found reasons to delay this particular execution. Not sure they would have used this case to overturned the death penalty but it would have set up a case on it.

    • krazen1211 April 21, 2017 at 10:10 am

      Flashback. Back in 1992, Bill Clinton went home to Arkansas to oversee the execution of a cop killer allegedly because he didn’t want to look soft on crime. Plus Dukakis really botched this issue in the 1988 campaign.

      I guess they have changed?

      • zbigreddogz April 21, 2017 at 2:58 pm

        Dukakis got burned, Clinton avoided getting burned because he saw what happened. They’re just reverting to form.

        • StatenIslandTest April 21, 2017 at 3:03 pm

          Since we heard the canard that Reagan couldnt have been nominated in todays GOP, could JFK or 1992 Bill Clinton be nominated in today’s Dem Party?


          31, Jersey City

          • rdw72777 April 21, 2017 at 3:16 pm

            Depends on what you mean. 1992 Clinton would still run roughshod over the the 1992 primary opponents in the South today since none of them appeal any better to today’s Dem party in the South than they did 25 years ago. Conversely if 2016 Clinton ran in 2016 or 2020 he’d steamroll simply on the level of AA support he still has (unless he ran against Obama in a primary which would be absolutely fascinating) and his ability to dominate the South and rural Democratic areas plus doing well enough everywhere else.

          • Izengabe April 21, 2017 at 3:27 pm

            The GOP just nominated a reality TV show star, I think a famous actor like Reagan would have no trouble getting nominated.

            As for the Democrats they just nominated Bill’s wife and a young telegenic candidate like JFK or Bill ’92 would have no trouble getting the nomination.

            Better question is could someone as fat as William Howard Taft or uncharacteristic as Calvin Coolidge win their party’s nomination.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • prsteve11 April 21, 2017 at 12:09 pm

      I think it’s pretty clear that Neil Gorsuch is well on his way to being a conservative justice. Also of interest are the growing rumors that Kennedy is going to step down this summer. I hope he does.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • AD123 April 21, 2017 at 12:46 pm

      The Supreme Court is probably the main thing keeping me a reliable federal Republican voter – a 5-4 liberal court would’ve meant a lot of big changes, although Garland would probably be in the Breyer/Kagan camp that’s at least marginally attached to formalism.

      • rdelbov April 21, 2017 at 1:02 pm

        I have always had the idea that Breyer, and maybe Garland would be the same, is different then Ginsburg/Sotomayor and Kagan. I think they are classic liberal legislator judges. They want to be as expansive from a judicial standpoint as Douglas or Brennan or whoever from the Warren era. I don’t doubt that Garland and the four others would undo the death penalty but somehow I imagine Breyer would be a little less aggressive on Guns-Property-state rights and other issues then the other three. Right now in dissent they have free votes. You can dissent and not have to worry about what happens if your opinion becomes the law of the land.

        I think redistricting/voter rights act issues are a good example of that. I think the liberal three would enact uniform voting laws from Maine to Alaska. If cutting back on voting times in NC is a violation of the rights of black voters in that state not having early voting in person violates the rights of black folks in PA. I can see those three justices buying that argument. Maybe not Breyer. I can see the liberal three undoing every current redistricting plan, except MD and IL which are to them models of fairness while Breyer does not do that. I might Breyer might have ideas on what gerrymandering is but notice that he has kept them to himself. I suspect he has no problem with a NC or MI CD plan that benefits one party but he might dislike some plans that slice and dice up counties.

        As I said it is one thing to dissent but it yet another for the courts to live with the results of one’s opinions.

        • BostonPatriot April 21, 2017 at 5:16 pm

          Kagan is closer to Breyer than to RBG/SMS although she’s a different sort of liberal than he is–Kagan is more of a liberal textualist, Breyer is more of a traditional Brennan-type purposivist. RBG and SMS are further to the left. I imagine Garland would have been similar to Breyer and Kagan.

          • kewgardens April 21, 2017 at 6:19 pm

            I think both of you give Breyer too much credit. Breyer is a Posner-like judicial realist on economic/regulatory/business issues but a hard-core liberal on social/cultural/racial matters. Indeed, on the latter issues, he is as much of a “liberal legislator judge” as RBG or SMS.

            In other words, he is only to the “right” of the rest of the liberal bloc in the economic sphere.

  • GerGOP April 21, 2017 at 10:12 am

    Re French Elections:
    Le Pen has fallen back to 2nd place behind Macron (what the heck do people see in him, except a debatable pretty face like Trudeau?) and is hard pressed by Fillon and Melenchon for the runoff spot. Where do you think her biggest weakness lies in?
    She’s done many things to soften her party’s image but also stances on various issues and has taken hard steps against those who made controversial statements – including expelling her own father (the founder of the party), but for some reason the FN still can’t take a solid footing in runoff elections.

    If she was to make the runoff, it seems like she could receive some support from Fillon voters, but nowhere near enough to get 50%+.

    I would wager that with all the economic troubles France is in and still heading towards, the unrest between muslims/non-muslims, the terror attacks, the FN would stand a bit stronger.

    • SlippingJimmy April 21, 2017 at 10:18 am

      I wonder where Fillon would be right now without his jobs scandal?

      I hope he makes the runoff against Melenchon or LePen. That’s probably one of the less likely outcomes, however.


      Republican, TX-22. Fiscal conservative, pro-gun/5-month ban social moderate.

      • GerGOP April 21, 2017 at 10:27 am

        Macron is a certainty for one of the two spot. Except if his support is inflated in the polls and doesn’t translate into actual votes, with him literally having no party structure. I doubt that, though.
        Melenchon vs Macron would be a heck of a scary thing.

    • The Anonymous User April 21, 2017 at 10:22 am

      What people see in Macron is that he’s the least offensive candidate in the field.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

      • GerGOP April 21, 2017 at 10:28 am

        Macron is the least offensive but (except for Fillon) the one who would guarantee the most amount of stasis. I can’t believe the French people want stasis, considering where their country is.
        But Le Pen and Melenchon might be TOO scary.

        • Izengabe April 21, 2017 at 11:33 am

          I think the French people want change but they dont want the change that’s being offered. When your choices are a Marxist, a neo-fascist and a free market conservative embroiled in a corruption scandal a technocrat Mike Bloomberg type might not seem like the worst option.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • The Anonymous User April 21, 2017 at 5:07 pm

          Honestly, I think Macron just lucked out because Le Pen and Melenchon are too extreme, Fillon is embroiled in a huge scandal, and Hamon is too associated with Hollander to win.


          Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

          • HS April 21, 2017 at 5:47 pm

            I think you are probably right. Fillon without the scandal would have won it, and it is in US interests for him to be the next French President. But Macron probably has a strong edge.

            If Le Pen and Melenchon someone get in together, this election will get really interesting.

      • GerGOP April 21, 2017 at 10:36 am

        I can easily see why LGBTQ people are voting for FN – it’s the argument Jehns Spahn (Undersecretary of Treasury, gay, Co-Chair of the CDU) is trying to make that there is an increasingly aggressive part of muslims who are against gays and lesbians.
        Best example: My best friend is a language tutor for a Syrian refuge. This is a highly intelligent, educated man who was trained as a physician and is now working towards being allowed to work as a physician here in Germany. Very nice guy, but the second he talks about LGBTQ people, he switches into a completely different human being with no separation between him and ISIS in what he believes should be done to them. Funny thing is that a member of our group, with whom he also undertook some tours, IS homosexual. He likes him, but propably only because he doesn’t know about him.

      • w920us April 21, 2017 at 11:26 am

        The visceral hatred many of my kind have toward Christians has made them utter morons when it comes to how much worse we would have it with Muslims. It’s an odd disconnect from reality.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

        • GerGOP April 21, 2017 at 11:59 am

          It’s something that’s conveniently overlooked by “the left” and also many conservatives, imho.

      • Izengabe April 21, 2017 at 11:41 am

        The better question is probably how can gay men in France could vote for anyone other than the FN! Remember Pim Fortuyn was gay. The Islamization of Europe is a direct existential threat to homosexuals in Europe. The changing of coalitions like this should not surprise anyone.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • BostonPatriot April 21, 2017 at 5:18 pm

          It’s actually a good point. France is a proudly secular country so French nationalism necessarily carries a degree of secular pride against the relgious “others.”

          • HS April 21, 2017 at 5:49 pm

            And don’t forget about the Orlando shooting. The left tried to turn it into an ordinary “hate crime”, but it was jihad against gays.

  • GOPTarHeel April 21, 2017 at 10:16 am

    Charlotte-Mayor: The two serious challengers (Council member Vi Lyles and State Sen. Joel Ford) to incumbent Jennifer Roberts are apparently in talks so that the stronger of the two candidates will be the only serious African American challenger on the Democratic primary ballot later this year. Two-thirds of registered Democrats in the city are African American, although the primary will be open to the heavily white and liberal independents as well. Personally, I think Ford is the weaker of the two since he has a close relationship with legislative Republicans and the business community and occasionally feuds with Roy Cooper. Lyles would have the same amount of business backing without the charges of being a crypto-Republican. A GOP city council member from South Charlotte, Kenny Smith, is in the race for Republicans, but I’ll be shocked if he can put up a real fight against Roberts or anyone else, despite Roberts’ troubles. HB2 and Trump have effectively destroyed the GOP in Charlotte.
    http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article145765849.html


    R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

    • segmentation_fault April 21, 2017 at 10:30 am

      I saw that Lyles barely raised any money though.

      • GOPTarHeel April 21, 2017 at 10:36 am

        Probably true. If its Ford, the LGBT and Cooper-aligned money will boost Roberts enough that I think she’d survive assuming strong white indie primary turnout in South Charlotte and Uptown.


        R/NC-4. Needed a May, got a Trump.

  • Conservative First April 21, 2017 at 10:22 am

    MI-Gov: Another D candidate
    http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/04/21/governor-candidate/100721428/

  • Grant April 21, 2017 at 10:59 am

    OK-Gov: Inman’s a good candidate. Relatively moderate, well spoken, etc. Probably the best the Democrats can do here, but even with Fallin’s unpopularity he’s still going to get flattened by Lamb. In both 2010 and 2014 Lamb ran substantially ahead of Fallin statewide and will likely cruise through the primary. Safe R at this point.


    26, R, OK-5

  • fzw April 21, 2017 at 11:55 am

    Artiles resigns. Good riddance. Hillary won his SD by 18.


    NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
    #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

    • MosheM April 21, 2017 at 11:59 am

      We only won the race because the Dem was even crazier. This is bad.


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • fzw April 21, 2017 at 12:09 pm

        I mean, if Dems choose a semi-competent candidate, they should be favored to win, but oh well. If that’s the price of getting a scumbag like Artiles out of office, who cares? It’s not like the State Senate is at risk of flipping.


        NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
        #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

        • MosheM April 21, 2017 at 12:26 pm

          Let’s hope the same Dem is the nominee. The district is a Republican one ancestrally though. Redistricted. Cuban Hispanic.


          28, M, R, NY-10

        • shamlet April 21, 2017 at 12:59 pm

          And the seat is up in 2018 again so we’ll have two bites at the apple. It’s not great but I don’t think it’s any worse than Tossup – The seat also doesn’t have very many white liberals IIRC; the white liberals in the area are solely right along the coastline and I think this seat is only inland (Dems here are mostly blacks and non-Cuban Hispanics who probably won’t be as super-energized right now).


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • SwingStateRepublican April 21, 2017 at 2:11 pm

      This helps Republicans, Artiles would have no chance in 2018 and he would hurt other FL Republicans. Now the Cuban machine can get a clean new candidate. This district doesn’t have a lot of white progressives who are inspired to resist Trump.


      20/R/NC-4(College)/VA-7(Home)
      Social liberal, fiscal conservative

  • prsteve11 April 21, 2017 at 12:34 pm

    I have a questions that may sound silly but I’m new to this site. How are you notified when someone replies to your post or where can you go to see if you’ve gotten replies?


    SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • MosheM April 21, 2017 at 12:55 pm

      Doesn’t exist


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 1:13 pm

      Sorry, man. You just have to look through the comments and find them.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • prsteve11 April 21, 2017 at 1:51 pm

        Ok thanks – at lest now I know!


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • Manhatlibertarian April 21, 2017 at 2:01 pm

        It used to be that you could go to a section where your recent posts were listed and any replies to the posts were also listed. Since we can’t stay on rrh all the time that made it easier to come back on the site and see if your comment had any replies. For whatever reason that got done away with when changes were made to site format, and I’m no computer techie so I can’t explain why. There are often between 100 and 200 comments every day, so you just have to scroll through until you find your comment and see if there are any replies. Cumbersome, but I guess you will get used to it after awhile.

        • roguemapper April 21, 2017 at 3:41 pm

          That got done away with because the underlying function is a prime gateway for brute force attacks, denial of service attacks, the hacking of user accounts, and the creation of backdoor exploits. If you want someone to thank for it then that would be the faux Texan psycho German hero of our alt-right contingent, Walker.


          Dem NC-11

          • Manhatlibertarian April 21, 2017 at 5:00 pm

            Thanks for the explanation (as you can see I do scroll back to see if anyone replied to my comments). Yes I remember Walker. As I recall he was a Trump supporter during the GOP primaries who always seemed to have a never ending array of articles to back up his position. Why he claimed to be a Texan when he was based in Germany, I have no idea.

    • rdelbov April 21, 2017 at 1:04 pm

      I guessed there was a dozen or so the other day but this number surprises. There is a paywall up so I don’t know who is on the list. Clearly it is bi-partisan.

      • MosheM April 21, 2017 at 1:24 pm

        Incognito is your friend.


        28, M, R, NY-10

    • pstchrisp April 21, 2017 at 1:06 pm

      There was an article in the LA Times that showcased the 5 from California last year.

      • rdelbov April 21, 2017 at 1:21 pm

        Not surprised by CA the last redistricting jumbled up lines in so many ways but come on–get a move on!!

    • Izengabe April 21, 2017 at 2:13 pm

      Out of the 20 they listed 5 were a direct result of court ordered redistricting (4 in FL and 1 in NC) in 2016. Those Congressmen where living in district before the lines were abruptly changed.

      5 are from CA which has its own unique political culture when it comes to living in the district you seek to represent! Nearly 10% of CA Congressmen live outside of their district!

      What Ossoff wants to do is quite rare. Generally if a Congressman doesnt live in his district it was because redistricting moved the lines.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • StatenIslandTest April 21, 2017 at 4:01 pm

        This shouldnt be allowed honestly unless we want to change our whole system of representation. And of course this doesnt even take into account the numerous (R-McLean) and (D-Bethesda) situations.


        31, Jersey City

    • Republican Michigander April 21, 2017 at 3:57 pm

      I knew Conyers was in the 14th unless he moved. He’s always been the rep for the “West side” and got drawn in the strange East/North Detroit/Southfield/Pontiac district. It was never a huge issue since he’s in the City of Detroit in a City district.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Daniel Surman April 21, 2017 at 1:07 pm

    MN-1: Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN-6) endorsed Hagedorn already. Weird decision to go with Hagedorn again this early when it’s likely to be a very competitive open seat with Rep. Tim Walz (DFL) running for Governor. Hagedorn has shown twice he isn’t the best candidate for the job, a C-lister whose qualification is that his dad was a congressman here decades ago. http://www.nujournal.com/news/local-news/2017/04/21/emmer-backs-hagedorn/


    R, TX-14

    • cer April 21, 2017 at 1:43 pm

      I take most endorsements with a grain of salt.

      • rdelbov April 21, 2017 at 1:52 pm

        It is probably a personal relationship matter. Hagedorn could have helped Emmer during either his congressional races or governor race. Look at Bill and Hillary. They keep a long list of people who supported them and they support them back.

        Hagedorn IMO might be the best choice for this seat but he does have a name that still generates some positive response to it. I defer to my MN R friends for local insight into top tier guys who are willing to run.

        • The Emperor April 21, 2017 at 2:17 pm

          The best person for this seat is someone that has crossover support in either Rochester or Mantako


          male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
          Rubio Republican

      • BostonPatriot April 21, 2017 at 5:20 pm

        With the amount of salt you take most things with you should watch your blood pressure.

        • cer April 21, 2017 at 5:40 pm

          My blood pressure is just fine by the way… 🙂

    • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 1:56 pm

      Yeah. I don’t get the angle here. Maybe Hagedorn ran a great shoestring campaign and we just never heard about it, but somehow I doubt it. They’re probably just treating him as the heir apparent because he got so close, but that’s dangerous. A fresh Dem face who actually acknowledged Hagedorn’s existence and attacked him could do some damage and win.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • rdw72777 April 21, 2017 at 1:52 pm

    So I was looking at the 2016 Census estimates for PA today and I think a good PA trivia question exists. Also the state is going to shed Congressional districts forever…newsflash there lol.

    PA Trivia: What are the 2 fastest growing counties in PA by (% growth) from 2010-2016? Both are over 100k in population so % growth is relevant…

    The answer kind of surprises, kind of doesn’t…

    • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 1:57 pm

      Lancaster and York?


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • rdw72777 April 21, 2017 at 2:27 pm

        Nope. I thought for sure Lancaster would be one of the 2 but it’s not. York isn’t even in the top 10, which again kind of surprised me.

    • edtorres04 April 21, 2017 at 2:32 pm

      Pike and Monroe?

      • rdw72777 April 21, 2017 at 2:36 pm

        According to the 2016 estimates both have actually lost population since 2010. Which is shocking since both grew more than 20% from 2000-2010.

        Maybe the estimates are wrong but I guess I could see how theoretically the advantages of these 2 places went away with skyrocketing real estate prices and increased population making the commute to NYC/NNJ longer.

        • cinyc April 21, 2017 at 3:08 pm

          New York City’s metro growth has been in the city itself and the inner-ring suburban counties. Most of the exurban counties have lost population since 2010. It’s not just limited to Pike and Monroe – the pattern repeats itself in New Jersey and New York. Nassau is growing faster than Suffolk, for example. You generally see the opposite pattern in rust belt cities.

          I did a diary back when the incorporated place population estimates came out last year with maps of percentage growth in various parts of the country:
          http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2016/05/29/population-changes-in-cities-and-towns-2010-2015

          There are a few interactive maps linked there. The 2016 incorporated place estimate data should come out in May.

          • rdw72777 April 21, 2017 at 3:29 pm

            Is NYC unique unto itself? I ask only because of anecdotal evidence. Essentially given how long it takes to commute in from the outer ring has expanded. Also during my house-hunting adventures in Philadelphia in 2016 I ran into numerous New Yorkers shopping in Philadelphia since Amtrak Acela from Philly was faster than LIRR from central LI or driving in from NEPA on I-80.

            Essentially a kind of bifurcation (1) if you’re going to have a long commute you move further away to get better quality of non-urban life and (2) if you’re going to have to deal with Urban life might as well get right in the heart of it and not on the fringes? Just a hypothesis…

            • cinyc April 21, 2017 at 3:47 pm

              The NYC growth pattern is fairly unique. The only place where you see a slightly similar pattern is Chicago, where McHenry and outer Lake and Will County’s growth stopped. In the Sunbelt, the general pattern is growth everywhere. In the Rust Belt, the general pattern is decline in the cities and sometimes inner suburbs, with growth in the outer suburbs/exurbs. The interactive maps linked in my diary will allow you to answer the question for whatever metro you want to look at.

              One problem, though, is that we generally only have good incorporated place data for states where there are a lot of incorporated places, like the Northeast. Otherwise, all you tend to get data for is the principal city, some incorporated suburbs, and the balance of the county.

    • rdw72777 April 21, 2017 at 2:46 pm

      So here’s the answer and my thoughts on why:

      #1 Cumberland County – Up +5.6%. If you’re like me you have to look it up on the map. Central PA-ish and I can’t think of anything that would drive growth of +5.6% in the last 6 years. Anecdotal stuff on the interwebs makes it seem like it’s spill-over from Dauphin County (home of Harrisburg our state capital).
      #2 Centre County – Up +4.9%…since it’s home to Penn State not a huge surprise.
      #3 Lebanon County – Up +4.0%. It also borders Dauphin County like Cumberland so I’m guessing same explanation…growth of state govt.
      #4 Lehigh County – +3.9%. Has been growing in population for a while but also has seen recent influxes of Puerto Ricans to Allentown since the PR financial crisis.
      #5 Lancaster County – +3.7% and has been a growing county for decades. Amish and such lol.

      https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

      • cinyc April 21, 2017 at 3:33 pm

        Most of Cumberland County grew, but the Cumberland County town that grew the most 2010-15 is Silver Spring Township. Harrisburg itself (in Dauphin County) shrunk. So it does look like your typical new housing growth on the fringes of the metro area here.

        Centre County’s main growth wasn’t in the borough of State College itself, but in suburban areas like Benner Township.

  • cer April 21, 2017 at 2:49 pm

    GA-6 Ossoff didn’t VOTE in 2012.

    http://theresurgent.com/ga06-jon-failed-to-vote-his-ossoff-in-2012/

    • MosheM April 21, 2017 at 2:51 pm

      He wasn’t too young?


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • Izengabe April 21, 2017 at 3:01 pm

      Knowing Ossoff he probably would have voted for Jar Jar Binks for Senate


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • The Anonymous User April 21, 2017 at 5:09 pm

        Han Solo never even met Jar Jar though, he was long gone by Han Solo’s time, so we don’t know how Jon Solo, er Han Ossoff, er Han Solo would have reacted to him, so he probably wouldn’t have voted for Jar Jar.


        Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

      • fzw April 21, 2017 at 5:47 pm

        Jar Jar was a Congressman, so the idea’s not that ridiculous 😉


        NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
        #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

        • GerGOP April 21, 2017 at 6:22 pm

          Jar Jar is actually the true incarnation of the Dark Side.

    • prsteve11 April 21, 2017 at 3:04 pm

      One of the reasons I don’t think he’ll win is that he looks like such a lightweight – a kid really. There’s nothing wrong with that, but I think (hope) a lot of Georgians will think twice before voting for him over Karen Handel. I sent her a small donation today, btw.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • GerGOP April 21, 2017 at 4:36 pm

        Youth doesnt per Se need to be an obstacle. Schock was young, Ryan was young, Stefanik is young…

        • prsteve11 April 21, 2017 at 9:07 pm

          Don’t get me wrong. I have no problem with young. It’s just that to me, Ossoff looks like he’s 18. For certain jobs, that’s not a problem but for Congress, it may be with some people at least.


          SC-03, Conservative Republican

          • Izengabe April 21, 2017 at 9:51 pm

            It’s not that Ossoff looks young it’s that he talks like a kid. Ossoff is a 30 year old man who blames not living in the district on the fact that he’s crashing at his girlfriend place while she is finishing up school. He blames not voting on studying abroad in England. He talks about his parents living in the district. To me he just doesnt come across as a grownup.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Manhatlibertarian April 21, 2017 at 3:23 pm

      Probably won’t have much effect, although it does contribute a bit to Ossoff’s “lightweight” image. The fact that he was in England in 2012 is not a good excuse; a number of people abroad vote by absentee ballot. You want people to come out and vote for you in both the initial primary and the runoff, yet you couldn’t be bothered to fill out an absentee ballot in the 2012 presidential election. But Ossoff is the “man of the hour” for those on the left and they will stick by him come hell or high water. The only thing that might hurt him with his out of state donors (I think 95% of his $ comes from outside Ga) is if they start taking a fancy to Dem Montana CD special election candidate Quist. Hey a banjo playing populist that Bernie Sanders likes, that might shake some dollars loose from lib Dems nationwide to the detriment of Ossoff. On the other hand, when they need it, the Dems always seem to have plenty of $, so maybe they will deluge both of them with plenty of donations.

  • MosheM April 21, 2017 at 3:02 pm

    PERFECT!

    The Democratic incumbent who lost his state Senate race to Frank Artiles last year may want his seat back.

    Former Sen. Dwight Bullard said he’s seriously considering running again.

    http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2017/04/21/bullard-considering-running-again-for-senate-111426


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • fzw April 21, 2017 at 3:53 pm

      Surely Florida Dems aren’t that stupid. If they want someone credible, this is a seat where Annette Taddeo could finally win something. I think she lives here


      NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
      #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

      • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 5:11 pm

        I’m guessing that it has to do with the combination of a formerly safe incumbent not accepting reality and a racial thing. Remember, Dwight Bullard is black. The black faction of the Miami-Dade Dems (which if I remember correctly is the controlling faction) wants their second senate seat back.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • The Anonymous User April 21, 2017 at 5:11 pm

      If Bullard does run, I’m pretty sure he would get flattened in a primary. Democrats only need a credible Hispanic Dem like Annette Taddeo or Ana Rivas Logan and we win.


      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

      • fzw April 21, 2017 at 5:28 pm

        I wouldn’t say Logan or Taddeo would be locks to win, but I’d think they’d be slight favorites, so long as they can appease the black community. Taddeo is trying to do just that, if I’m reading her comments in between the lines. Her statement boiled down to “I think we should wait for the black community leaders to have the first say since these racist comments affected them most.”

        If I were her, I’d be jumping at this opportunity, since if she wins this race and the 2018 one, it would put her in a prime position for the 2020 FL-26 race, which is what she’s obviously been gunning for for years now.


        NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
        #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

      • rdelbov April 21, 2017 at 5:37 pm

        A large % D primary vote in this seat is AA democrat. That is a reason why Bullard won the primary in 2016. He got 48% of the D primary vote winning many hispanics(who he has represented and yes white D voters as well). He would also certainly be well funded by groups who supported in 2016. Clearly he is the favorite to win the D primary in SD40.
        I would not be surprised if de le Portilla runs here. I believe much of this area was in his old state senate seat. Maybe even his home?

        • fzw April 21, 2017 at 5:41 pm

          I doubt Bullard actually runs. He acknowledged that the district was very different and that it was time for someone new.


          NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
          #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

          • rdelbov April 21, 2017 at 5:51 pm

            It is important to note that turnout will be much lower in the special then in the 2016 general elections. Both primaries will also see lower numbers.

            Certainly on the D side it is a wildcard as to who runs and wins.

  • Manhatlibertarian April 21, 2017 at 3:02 pm

    While we have been focusing on the upcoming French presidential election, we shouldn’t forget there are French National Assembly elections scheduled for June 11, with runoffs if needed on June 18. Although the French Pres has a good degree of power particularly with regard to foreign policy, the Pres must still deal with a Prime Minster who is ultimately responsive to the majority in the National Assembly. If the French Pres doesn’t have a majority in the National Assembly, as has happened several times, there is a period of what the French call “cohabitation”. Note in France, unlike the US, the Pres does not have a veto over legislation. Right now, Macron, the apparent leader in the polls, has founded his centrist En Marche! movement to contest seats in the National Assembly, but it is unclear if his movement can obtain a majority. The conservative French Republicains and their allies probably have the best political machine now, but it is hampered by the corruption charges against Fillon, the Republicain Pres candidate. Far Left Melenchon and Far Right LePen are unlikely to win majorities in the National Assembly for their parties, even if they somehow manage to get elected Pres. So to sum up after the French National Assembly elections there is a good chance things can be a little chaotic for awhile.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/20/how-france-presidential-election-could-make-or-break-the-eu

    • segmentation_fault April 21, 2017 at 5:24 pm

      Although historically, cohabitation has only happened after midterm elections, which haven’t occurred since presidential terms were shortened from 7 to 5 years.

      • Manhatlibertarian April 21, 2017 at 9:41 pm

        Yes but with the current unusual political situation in France, there is a good chance no party gets a majority in the National Assembly in June. So cohabitation remains very possible.

  • Conservative First April 21, 2017 at 4:49 pm

    MI-Senate: Robert Young, maybe?
    http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/04/21/robert-young-challenge/100756536/

    • Son_of_the_South April 21, 2017 at 5:13 pm

      I hate this. Every few years, we shuffle around for a Michigan senate candidate, put up a B-lister who ends up running a shitty campaign, then lose. It’s getting old.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Republican Michigander April 22, 2017 at 12:51 am

      I think extremely highly of Justice Bowtie. Robert Young was one of the few Justices who understood both the job and political realities for judicial campaigns (as much as many people dislike them). He can also explain the courts to regular people who aren’t lawyers. There’s a gift for that.

      US Senate though? I’d probably end up voting for him considering the names I’ve heard, but I’d rather see him on the courts. Appeals or SCOTUS (age considerations aside).


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • ihate2fly April 21, 2017 at 5:23 pm

    Digital Map Details Shifting U.S. Demographics – 1990 thru 2010
    http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0174993

    The map: http://sil.uc.edu/webapps/socscape_usa/

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