Political Roundup for May 11, 2017

Polling Update: We are still way short of what we would need to raise to poll the MT-AL special election. Montana state law requires live callers to poll which makes the cost of polling the state very expensive. We are still waiting on approval from the state of Georgia to get an exemption to their state telecommunications law which requires live callers. If we can get the exemption and raise enough money we will poll GA-06. If not all money raised will be put towards polling the AL-Sen GOP primary. If you would like to help make the polls possible please go to:   https://www.paypal.me/RedRacingHorses and contribute today!

President:

Can you smell what the Rock is cooking?: Because one President who is a member of the WWE Hall of Fame is not enough, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson says he might actually run for President. Before you laugh at this please remember Donald Trump is President of the United States and Al Franken is a member of the US Senate.

Governor:

FL-Gov: Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (R) officially launched is campaign for governor. Putnam has been a fixture in Florida’s political scene for over 20 years. He was first elected to the Florida State House in 1996, Congress in 2000 and was elected statewide to Agriculture Commissioner in 2010. With a resume like that its sometime hard to believe that Adam Putnam is only 42 years old.

MI-Gov: Better Call Sam. Wealthy attorney Mark Bernstein (D) is considering a run for governor. The Bernstein family law firm is one of the best known in the state and Mark is known for his “Call Sam” ambulance chasing commercials. If he runs Mark could put significant personal fortune into the race. When Mark’s brother Richard Bernstein ran for MI Supreme Court in 2014 the Bernstein family reportedly spent more than $1 million to help him win.

MN-Gov: 2014 gubernatorial nominee and Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R) will run for governor again this year. Johnson struggled with fundraising in 2014 but did outperform the well-funded GOP Senate nominee. Johnson joins Ramsey County Commissioner Blake Huffman and State Rep. Matt Dean in the quest for the GOP nomination. House Speaker Kurt Daudt, State Sen. Dave Osmek, former MNGOP Chairman Keith Downey, and Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek are all considering seeking the Republicans nomination as well.

NJ-Gov:  Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) has raised over $2.2 million since January for her gubernatorial campaign. While this is a fairly decent haul for her, New Jersey is a very expensive state to run in since it doesn’t have its own media market and candidates are forced to buy ads in NYC and Philadelphia. Her most likely general election opponent will be former Goldman Sachs Master of the Universe Phil Murphy (D) who has already written a check to himself for $10 million for his campaign and give himself a lot more.

TN-Gov: State Sen. Mark Green (R) is undecided about returning to the Tennessee governor’s race after his nomination to be Secretary of the Army was scuttled by Democrats and LGBT special interest groups. Ironically the controversy left wing groups created over his nomination has raised Green’s profile and stature and could even help him in a GOP gubernatorial primary.

VA-Gov: Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) believes healthcare is a “privilege” and not a “right”. At least that is what he said in a 2011 debate when he was running for re-election to the state senate. Expect Progressive darling Tom Perriello to make an issue out of this old quote in the Democrat primary.

Senate:

ME-Sen: Gov. Paul LePage (R) announced that he will not run for Senate in 2018. For months LePage had been hinting at potentially challenging Sen. Angus King (I) but this marquee matchup will not happen.

TX-Sen: Former George W. Bush strategist Matthew Dowd will not run for Senate in 2018. Dowd had been considering an independent bid against Sen. Ted Cruz (R). The biggest obstacle to Ted Cruz’s re-election would come from a third party right of center candidate sucking up enough Republican votes to allow a Democrat like Beto O’Rourke to seek into office with less than 45% of the vote. With Dowd out that no longer looks like a possibility. Furthermore Cruz is starting to shed his image as an obstructionist Senate gadfly and is starting to be seen as a team player who the Senate GOP is counting on to bring Senate Republicans together to pass Obamacare repeal (see HERE).

WV-Sen: ICYMI Rep. Evan Jenkins (R) campaign launch video is well worth a watch. The video hits Sen. Manchin (D) for saying one think to get elected and doing another in Washington, DC. The ad features Manchin changing his views on gun control, standing with Planned Parenthood and endorsing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The video clearly lays out the case Jenkins will be making to voters and the themes in it will most likely be the focus of his campaign for Senate.

House:

CA-10: Registered nurse Dotty Nygard (D) will challenge Rep. Jeff Denham (R). Nygard is an activist in California Nurses Association the powerful Nurses Union. While Nygard seems like a C-list candidate at best Hillary Clinton did win this district 49%-46%.

GA-6: San Francisco loves Jon Ossoff (D) and the Congressional Leadership Fund is running a new ad letting everyone know that.

NY-1: Sommelier Hannah Selinger (D) announced her intention to challenge Rep. Lee Zeldin (R). Selinger has no prior experience running for public office and only moved to the East End of Long Island six years ago.

NY-11: Boyd Melson (D), a 35-year-old retired boxer, plans to run to run against Rep. Dan Donovan (R) next year. Melson lives in Brooklyn not Staten Island and can at best be described as a D-list candidate.

SC-5: The Club for Growth has endorsed Ralph Norman in the May 16th Republican primary runoff vs. Tommy Pope and has gone on the air with two new TV ads on Norman’s behalf (See HERE & HERE). UN Ambassador Nikki Haley has also made her preferences in this race known by donating $100 to Ralph Norman’s campaign (See Here).

VA-10: Dorothy McAuliffe, wife of Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), will not seek the Democratic nomination to challenge Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) next year. This clears the way for DCCC recruit state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D) to have an easier path to the Democrat nomination.

WV-3: Ex-State Delegate Rick Snuffer (R) becomes first to announce he will run for Congress after Rep. Evan Jenkins (R) announced his Senate candidacy. While Snuffer  is a former State Delegate he is also entering frequent candidate territory. Snuffer has run twice before for WV-03 (getting within 8 points in 2012), ran for WV GOP Chair, and ran for US Senate run in 2006 (getting 6% of the R primary vote). Current WV GOP Chair & former Sen. Shelley Moore Capito staffer Conrad Lucas is also prepping a Congressional campaign here.

State, Local & Other:

AL-Redistricting: The court mandated legislative redistricting in Alabama is slowing coming to completion. The senate has passed a map that complies with the court order unpacking of black voters. The new Senate maps smoothed out county lines while maintaining a partisan make up similar to the old. The house map that has passed committee also looks like it will keep the partisan balance the same while fixing the items the court wanted addressed.

NH-HD Cheshire 4: Rep. Joseph Stallcop has left the Democratic Party and joined the Libertarian Party. His defection will give the Libertarian Party two members in the 400 member state House. This will entitle the Libertarian Party to be recognized as a caucus, with its own room in the capitol. Stallcop is a 21 year old college student and was a Bernie Sanders supporter in 2016.

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155 Comments

  • Upstater22 May 11, 2017 at 6:25 am

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 46% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (+2)
    LDEM: 11% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-1)

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/11/voting-intention-conservatives-46-labour-30-9-10-m/


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy May 11, 2017 at 6:45 am

    Not sure if anyone mentioned this, but Joe Manchin has a primary challenger already, even if it is some D-list activist.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/05/joe-manchin-bernie-sanders-primary-challenge-west-virginia-senate-2018/525918/


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • californianintexas May 11, 2017 at 6:57 am

    “Before you laugh at this please remember Donald Trump is President of the United States and Al Franken is a member of the US Senate.”

    And Arnold Schwarzenegger was Governor of California.


    34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • Greyhound May 11, 2017 at 7:17 am

      And Jesse Ventura was elected Governor of Minnesota, Ed McMahon’s wife was a 2-time GOP candidate for Senate, and Ronald Reagan was elected Governor of California before being elected President.


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • Upstater22 May 11, 2017 at 7:44 am

        You’re a little too young to be confusing Ed and Vince


        Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

        • HS May 11, 2017 at 8:57 am

          And George Murphy was a Senator from California. Just because all of us are way too young to know of him, doesn’t mean he wasn’t a celebrity song and dance man who got elected to high office.

          • TheWizardOf144 May 11, 2017 at 9:18 am

            “Mr. Murphy is the star whose done the best by far…

            Oh, gee it’s great. At last we’ve got a Senator who can really sing and dance…”- Tom Lehrer

            • HS May 11, 2017 at 9:57 am

              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Gahagan_Douglas

              And here is another California pol who was an actress. California also had John Tunney, who was the son of a celebrity.

              • Wahoowa May 11, 2017 at 11:02 am

                I feel like celebrity politicians in California is more acceptable given that the entertainment industry is an important part of the economy there. It’s when they show up repeatedly inn a place like Minnesota that you have to question the voters’ sanity. (But as long as we’re listing people, let’s not forget Sonny Bono)


                CO-7

              • davybaby May 11, 2017 at 11:09 pm

                Tunney could never shake the unfair line that he was “the lightweight son of the heavyweight champ.”

            • shamlet May 12, 2017 at 7:15 am

              “Now that he’s a Senator/he’s really got the chance/to give the public/a song and dance”


              R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • prsteve11 May 11, 2017 at 12:18 pm

      Yeah, I used to be a California voter and voted for Arnold. He wasn’t great but was the best choice at the time. It seems that Republican celebrities do better than Dem ones.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • jncca May 11, 2017 at 12:26 pm

        I think it’s more that the GOP has to rely on celebrities in CA because the bench is weaker.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • HS May 11, 2017 at 12:37 pm

          That was true when it came to Arnold, but the GOP was still the majority party in CA or a fifty-fifty party when Murphy and Reagan won.

        • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 12:40 pm

          Actually since most celebrities are Democrats a Republican celebrity plays against type and tend to be taken a little more seriously. Left leaning low information voters are more likely to cross over to vote for someone they “know” than right leaning voters who tend to dismiss left leaning celebrities as par or the course.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • Son_of_the_South May 11, 2017 at 1:20 pm

            You took the words right out of my mouth.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • dpmapper May 11, 2017 at 7:32 am

    From supporting a socialist to declaring as a libertarian. Ah, youth.


    #neither

    • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 8:25 am

      I think the common denominator was marijuana legalization.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • rdw72777 May 11, 2017 at 11:00 am

      I’m surprised a state like NH with it’s “Live Free or Die” motto and teeny-tiny state House districts only has the now 2 reps.

  • Upstater22 May 11, 2017 at 7:43 am

    And Jeff Denham is in CA-10, not CA-39


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

  • Upstater22 May 11, 2017 at 8:00 am

    Somebody did the work and put together a map of Scottish Westminster constituencies and who was the first choice vote in the local elections. Conservatives actually did a bit better than I originally thought, being the lead vote getter in 18 constituencies vs 33 for SNP. This does not translate very easily into a prediction for the General Election due to strategic voting and high numbers of Independent voters, but it gives an idea of where Conservatives may be able to do well (if they pick up half of these 18 seats, they are doing well). They are almost guaranteed to pick up 2 Borders seats. They should pick up a couple in northeastern Scotland as well. East Renfrewshire, that little blue speck in the sea of yellow, is historically the most Conservative seat in Scotland but Tories haven’t won it since losing it in 1997. A couple of Edinburgh seats are also on the table (South and South West).

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/862598306551279616/photo/1


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

  • Ryan_in_SEPA May 11, 2017 at 8:35 am

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/Pennsylvania-voters-legalize-marijuana-poll.html?mobi=true

    F&M has Trump at 37% approval in PA. Probably means Trump is in the high 40s considering how bad F&M is.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • prsteve11 May 11, 2017 at 12:16 pm

      Yeah, they had Clinton up 11 points in their final 2016 poll when President Trump won by about a point. Being off by 12 points is worse than bad.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • dforston May 11, 2017 at 9:08 am

    NV-2 poll – https://www.scribd.com/document/347991746/Nevada-Congressional-District-2-poll
    Amodei 46
    Gen Dem 45

    • prsteve11 May 11, 2017 at 12:22 pm

      Fortunately, generic opponents almost always do better than named ones. That said, his approval rating is poor, although this is a Dem pollster.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • jncca May 11, 2017 at 12:28 pm

        I think it can be a useful barometer if you don’t take it at face value. If you’re beating Generic Dem/Rep, the race leans to you. If you’re trailing them by single digits it’s a tossup.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • Tekzilla May 11, 2017 at 9:22 am

    http://www.economist.com/Trumptranscript

    This Economist interview is something else. The Priming the pump stuff especially hilarious.

    Also a good read this morning, Time on Trump.

    http://time.com/donald-trump-after-hours/?xid=newsletter-brief

    “As he settles down, they bring him a Diet Coke, while the rest of us are served water, with the Vice President sitting at one end of the table. With the salad course, Trump is served what appears to be Thousand Island dressing instead of the creamy vinaigrette for his guests. When the chicken arrives, he is the only one given an extra dish of sauce. At the dessert course, he gets two scoops of vanilla ice cream with his chocolate cream pie, instead of the single scoop for everyone else. The tastes of Pence are also tended to. Instead of the pie, he gets a fruit plate.”

    Where to start?


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Upstater22 May 11, 2017 at 9:57 am

      We can start with the toxic political environment in this country, where unhinged, demented Democrats overreact so ridiculously to every single thing Trump does, no matter what it is, and try to make this an actual story.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • Tekzilla May 11, 2017 at 10:18 am

        What unhinged Democrat responded to what story? Be specific please.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • WingNightAlone May 11, 2017 at 9:57 am

      Pence is picking up where Michelle left off. Healthy choices!


      25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

      • HS May 11, 2017 at 10:02 am

        The two scoops are a clear example of his white male 1% privilege. 😉

    • segmentation_fault May 11, 2017 at 11:57 am

      Throwback Trump tweet: “I have never seen a thin person drinking Diet Coke”


      core dumped

    • kewgardens May 11, 2017 at 2:01 pm

      At the dessert course, he gets two scoops of vanilla ice cream with his chocolate cream pie, instead of the single scoop for everyone else.

      It is good to be the king!

  • Republican Michigander May 11, 2017 at 9:40 am

    I can just picture The Rock in a debate….”IT DOESN’T MATTER what you think!”


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • WingNightAlone May 11, 2017 at 9:57 am

      A mixed-race universally liked south Florida Republican media personality with precisely 0 scandals is not a weak candidate for anything.


      25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

      • HS May 11, 2017 at 10:00 am

        He is originally from Pennsylvania, I believe. And he is related to a large number of famous wrestlers.

        • WingNightAlone May 11, 2017 at 10:13 am

          He lives outside Miami though. Not an area bothered by transplants.


          25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

          • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 10:22 am

            Forget Rick Scott, the NRSC should be on the phone with The Rock trying to get him to run for Senate against Nelson in 2018


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • TheWizardOf144 May 11, 2017 at 10:27 am

              Or have him move home to run against Casey Jr.

            • WingNightAlone May 11, 2017 at 11:08 am

              I unironically agree with this. He’d probably win barring DGLB… and could have an outside shot, if he was single, with LB.


              25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

            • rdw72777 May 11, 2017 at 11:10 am

              Such a huge paycut though. I’d imagine he’s getting close to $15-20 million for each one of the Fast/Furious movies he’s scheduled to be in and then his other family/comedy/action movies I’m guessing pay about the same. Plus the HBO TV show and sporadic WWE appearances are pretty significant money. In that sense the Rock is very very different from all of the other celebrity candidates except possibly Schwarzenegger in that he’s pretty much at his prime earnings and would have to walk away from a significant chunk (if not all) of it to be a Senator.

              • WingNightAlone May 11, 2017 at 11:26 am

                The guy has a net worth of $125M.


                25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

                • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 11:44 am

                  That was his net worth at the start of 2016. He earned $64.5 million last year. His net worth is probably over $175 million now! He’s in prime earning time. Walking away from banking over $50 million a year is very hard to do.


                  Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                  • HS May 11, 2017 at 11:51 am

                    I think it depends how much he likes politics. And he may like it a lot, only because he did appear at a GOP convention, in 2000, I think, which is something very few actors are going to do (many more, of course, go to the Dem convention).

                  • rdw72777 May 11, 2017 at 12:29 pm

                    Exactly. He could essentially be a billionaire in 20 years if he works for 5 more years and then invests wisely…plus he seems to truly enjoy what he does and is a very happy person. I honestly can’t imagine why he’d want to go into politics honestly…he seems to be living his dream.

                    I’d be more inclined to think he’d be the type to use his money to start a charity that he was heavily involved in that actually did good things for people…he seems that genuine and not someone who would enjoy legislating or governing.

                    • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 12:34 pm

                      None of this precludes a career in politics. Its really about timing. Usually celebrities enter politics at the tail end of their career as their second act. The Rock is only 45 years old. 10 to 15 years from now when his career is in decline would probably be when the timing is better for him.


                      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                    • krazen1211 May 11, 2017 at 1:29 pm

                      No reason for the Rock to run for governor. Folks talked about Trump running for governor of NY in 2014. Trump passed because he had bigger plans.

            • The Emperor May 11, 2017 at 12:04 pm

              The Rock would be a better Governor Candidate. Then he can avoid any polarizing national issues and secure the open seat for us ahead of 2021 Redistricting


              male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
              Rubio Republican

      • Republican Michigander May 11, 2017 at 12:05 pm

        I’m not sure The Rock is an R or a D except that I doubt he voted for Trump (and I think he may have voted for Bush). He’s registered independent.

        Just brainstorming, but could Duane Johnson try and do what Ross Perot tried to do in 1992?


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • HS May 11, 2017 at 12:13 pm

          He certainly could. He has the name recognition, the likeability factor, and the money.

          Perot was basically unknown when he ran.

          • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 12:29 pm

            Line of Presidential succession…
            45) President Donald J. Trump
            46) President Kanye West
            47) President Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
            48) President Kim Kardashian-West
            49) President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
            50) President Not Sure


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • HS May 11, 2017 at 12:44 pm

              The good news is that when they reboot Back to the Future, which is probably inevitable, the Ronald Reagan line can be transferred to Donald Trump, and then the Rock, and then Kanye West.

            • pstchrisp May 11, 2017 at 12:49 pm

              49) Terry Crews has a decent resume at least.

  • zbigreddogz May 11, 2017 at 10:28 am

    That Jenkins ad is devastating. One of the best ads in memory.

  • Mayor Perk May 11, 2017 at 10:35 am

    This should get interesting. McCain and Sasses are voting no on Lighthizer for US Trade Rep. Vote scheduled for 11 AM EST today. Someone get Pence over to the Senate chambers.

    http://thehill.com/policy/finance/332870-two-gop-senators-oppose-trumps-pick-for-trade-represenative


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • krazen1211 May 11, 2017 at 10:41 am

    M. Garland for fbi director. He is almost eligible for senior status so why not, lol.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/332913-gop-senator-nominate-merrick-garland-as-next-fbi-director

    • rdelbov May 11, 2017 at 10:48 am

      Garland for FBI? That could work.

    • krazen1211 May 11, 2017 at 11:07 am

      And we got backup! Some intern in Klobuchars office doesn’t realize how this works?

      https://mobile.twitter.com/amyklobuchar/status/862664675611332608

      • Son_of_the_South May 11, 2017 at 1:32 pm

        Well, obviously none of the Dems are getting the message that even if some Republicans want a special prosecutor, the position doesn’t exist anymore. The law was repealed. Every time I read that someone is calling for the appointment of someone to a position that no longer exists, I feel like I’m dealing with crazy people.


        23, R, TN-08
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • rdw72777 May 11, 2017 at 1:57 pm

          I think you mean that you feel like you’re taking crazy pills

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilcRS5eUpwk

          • Son_of_the_South May 11, 2017 at 2:02 pm

            Oh, I considered lining to that, but I’m not the one who’s crazy.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • Boehnerwasright May 11, 2017 at 2:04 pm

          The public doesn’t know that and Dems can always counter with let’s pass a law reinstating the special prosecutor position.

          • Son_of_the_South May 11, 2017 at 2:12 pm

            Yeah, but then why aren’t they just opening with wanting the law reinstated?


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • Tekzilla May 11, 2017 at 11:12 pm

              I get your point but you know that if you spend too much time explaining and getting into details you aren’t likely to be winning. Keep it short and sweet.


              36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • MosheM May 11, 2017 at 11:08 am

    WV state Sen. Richard Ojeda (D), a retired Army officer, filed w/ FEC to seek #wv03 (open-Evan Jenkins’s seat):
    https://t.co/lNej25WIzo


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • shamlet May 11, 2017 at 12:42 pm

      Puts it on the board at Likely R IMO. Ojeda is probably the one Dem that could (emphasis on could) win this seat.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Tekzilla May 11, 2017 at 12:59 pm

        Yup, absolutely best get for Ds but in WV that still makes it a stretch.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • edtorres04 May 11, 2017 at 12:59 pm

        This is exactly the guy you said could win in your post earlier this week…

      • MosheM May 11, 2017 at 1:37 pm

        Opens up his 78-19 Trump senate district.


        28, M, R, NY-10

        • shamlet May 11, 2017 at 2:13 pm

          He is in the seat that’s not up in 2018.


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 1:00 pm

      Luckily for Quist he’s raising millions of dollars for his Congressional campaign and he’s now able to pay himself a handsome salary out of his campaign coffers to allow him to finally payback his over due tax bills and liens.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • edtorres04 May 11, 2017 at 1:03 pm

        The amount of money Quist is raising from out of state donors is unreal! My thoughts are that if Gianforte wins this race, Fox will likely run for senate and not want to face Gianforte in the 2020 gov primary. If Gianforte loses, Fox will likely not run for Senate and will have the 2020 gov primary all to himself. I think we have a lot riding on this race.

        • rdw72777 May 11, 2017 at 1:58 pm

          It’s spelled PIANOFORTE dammit 🙂

          • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 2:11 pm

            Don’t make fun of our legally blind moderator! He makes substantially less typos and errors than me!


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • cinyc May 11, 2017 at 2:36 pm

              Pianoforte is a real word. It’s a fancy word for piano. Spellcheck must be changing Gianforte to Pianoforte. This isn’t the only place where I’ve seen it.

              FWIW (and again, probably not much), someone on Atlas ran another Google Survey this week. This one had Quist +4, after weighting by age and gender. These Google Surveys have been all over the place. They’re not very reliable. Plus, the sample size of most of them has been small.

              • rdw72777 May 11, 2017 at 2:50 pm

                Make Pianoforte Great Again*

                *Trademark pending.

                I’d be shocked if Quist won this. Montana is willing to vote for Dems but, ya know, competent Dems.

              • Son_of_the_South May 11, 2017 at 3:01 pm

                Yeah. It’s a problem with my autocorrect.


                23, R, TN-08
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                • BostonPatriot May 11, 2017 at 7:53 pm

                  Oh God I thought it was intentional! It’s a fun play on his name.

      • Manhatlibertarian May 11, 2017 at 2:02 pm

        The GOP is lucky the Dems picked Quist for the Montana CD Special Election as has a history of unpaid taxes and being sued by people for debts owed. His latest claim that he did not commercially rent out apartments that were converted from a barn appears to be an outright lie according to press reports. This means he did not get proper approvals to do so and is undervaluing the worth of the property for tax purposes. Yet $ is pouring into his campaign from the “Resistance” (Gianforte says Quist is getting about $70,000 a day from out of state) who either don’t know or don’t care about Quist’s ethics as they consider defeating Gianforte would be a strike against Trump.

        Will be interesting to see if the Comey firing has an impact on this race to the advantage of Quist. But continued negative stories about his taxes and debts will likely negate any advantage he might get over the Comey firing IMO.

  • edtorres04 May 11, 2017 at 1:00 pm

    Florida Governor: Does anyone here have concerns about Adam Putnam? He is a career politician. I’d consider voting for DeSantis in the primary if he jumped in.

    • fzw May 11, 2017 at 1:07 pm

      The attack ads write themselves if that’s what you’re asking. I’m suspicious of anyone who runs for office that young. It’s nakedly ambitious and pretty clear you’re doing it for the wrong reasons. See: Schock, Adam and Fratrick


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
      R-leaning Indy.

      • edtorres04 May 11, 2017 at 1:16 pm

        It’s unfair for you to name people without listing Charles Schumer.

        • rdelbov May 11, 2017 at 1:35 pm

          or Bill Clinton–Ran for Governor at age 32–Congress at 28-AG at 30. Running for office at an early is a sign of ambition but not a sign of inevitable failure.

      • pstchrisp May 11, 2017 at 1:46 pm

        Patrick Murphy wasn’t THAT young to run for Congress. But there are far more successful politicians who start their careers in a State Legislature or local offices at 30 or in their twenties and become successful. Like Cory Gardner, Chris Murphy, Brian Schatz, Marco Rubio, Cory Booker, Tim Scott, etc. Putnam’s only difference is he got in the basically part-time legislature at 22 rather than working as an aide for a Congressman for a few years first.

        • fzw May 11, 2017 at 1:57 pm

          I never said they weren’t successful at it. That doesn’t change the fact that it is an easy thing to attack someone on in this day and age. “{candidate X} has been an elected career politician since graduating college with all the life experience of a 22 year old” is probably a very powerful line of attack against anyone.
          Just ask Roy Blunt.


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

          • pstchrisp May 11, 2017 at 2:49 pm

            It’s nakedly ambitious
            Probably.

            and pretty clear you’re doing it for the wrong reasons
            Hardly.

            If he’s running against Gwen Graham who’s been in politics since birth and wants “Dad’s Seat”, her attack might ring more hollow or even backfire.

            • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 2:58 pm

              And Andrew Gillum was first elected to office at age 23 and he’s 5 years younger than Putnam!


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Tekzilla May 11, 2017 at 1:15 pm

      All I’ll say is I don’t mind facing him in the general.

      Then again I thought the same of Rick Scott so you can probably disregard this post.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • edtorres04 May 11, 2017 at 1:17 pm

        Putnam doesn’t have the high negatives that Scott had though. Scott also had the benefit of running against weak candidates in wave years.

        • fzw May 11, 2017 at 1:33 pm

          Putnam>Scott, Graham>Sink/Crist, and it’s probably safe to say 2018 won’t be as bad as 2010/14 for Dems. Pure tossup, but the national dynamics are more favorable for Graham than they were for Sink and Crist, and I think that tends to matter more in open seat gubernatorial races than in a race with an incumbent.


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

    • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 1:54 pm

      Calling Putnam a career politician is a little unfair. Usually that refers to politicians who enter politics for the money and as a means to support themselves. Adam Putnam’s net worth is anywhere from $6.5 million to $30 million. It’s not like he’s in politics for the money. His family owns huge track of land in the in Florida and are major Citrus farmers and are extremely wealthy. Putnam is more of a “gentleman politician” who comes from a very wealthy family and enters politics at a young age as a form of public service, like the Kennedys or Rockefellers.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 2:16 pm

        With that said the bigger concern with Putnam will be Democrats making hay out of he state of Florida spending nearly $30 million to buy 2,042 acres of land from his family in the Everglades in 2006. Florida paid Putnam family top dollar for the land in order to avoid having to try and take it via eminent domain.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • rdw72777 May 11, 2017 at 2:24 pm

          $15,000 per acre. I remember our farm in upstate NY was never appraised at more than $500/acre back int eh 1990’s.

          Location, location, location.

          • Son_of_the_South May 11, 2017 at 2:28 pm

            As someone who tangentially owns land in Louisiana for complicated reasons, yes, location is paramount. Mineral rights are nice too, though.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • fzw May 11, 2017 at 10:55 pm

        That doesn’t really look any better. If anything, it’s worse and makes him look like Fratrick, when daddy bought a seat.


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 11:11 pm

          No. Putnam comes from a wealthy family but he earned everything he got in politics on his own. He’s not a lightweight whose Dad bought a Congressional seat for him. Putnam won his first state house seat at 22 and because he hustled. His Florida House colleagues thought enough of him to make Putnam chair of the Agriculture Committee. He got elected to Congress at age 26 because of the record he built in the FL state House and 6 years into his Congressional career Putnam was the third ranking Republican in the House. If he stayed in Congress Putnam probably would have had a very good shot at becoming Speaker. He left Washington for basically the same reason Tim Griffin ran for Lt Governor. Putnam wanted to spend time with his family (he has 4 kids). He a serious guy and is nothing like Fratrick.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • fzw May 11, 2017 at 11:43 pm

            Ok, maybe a step above Fratrick. But he’s so serious and original that he’s running a #FloridaFirst campaign


            Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
            R-leaning Indy.

  • Tekzilla May 11, 2017 at 1:01 pm

    Trump now completely contradicting the initial White House story during Lester Holt interview.

    Who mislead Mike Pence?


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • roguemapper May 11, 2017 at 1:13 pm

      Considering how often they change you may want to be more specific. What White House story is the Donald contradicting and how is he contradicting it? Also, don’t you mean the latest White House story? If I’m not mistaken all initial White House stories have already been contradicted, often multiple times.


      Dem NC-11

    • dforston May 11, 2017 at 1:31 pm

      Clown show

      • roguemapper May 11, 2017 at 1:53 pm

        If you’re going to pin the blame for something transparently unethical far outside the realm of normal on someone, you should check first to make sure that they’re willing to take credit for it.


        Dem NC-11

  • Manhatlibertarian May 11, 2017 at 1:40 pm

    Some interesting stuff about Acting FBI Director McCabe’s testimony today before the Senate Intelligence Committee:

    On the one hand he contradicted the Trump Admin assertion that Comey had lost the trust of FBI agents but he did concede that there was a “faction” of FBI agents who were very vocal about their frustration that Comey did not press charges against Hillary Clinton in the email matter.

    On the other hand, despite press reports that one reason Trump wanted to get rid of Comey was that he was asking for more money for the Trump Campaign-Russia investigation, McCabe said the FBI had adequate resources to effectively pursue the Trump Campaign-Russia investigation and didn’t need additional funds.

    McCabe said he did not know if Comey had told Trump he was not a target of the FBI investigation, as Trump asserted. However, Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Grassley hinted that Comey had told his committee in a briefing that Trump was not a target, although he did not say directly if that was the case.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/05/11/acting-fbi-director-mccabe-comeys-firing-wont-impede-russia-investigation/101543844/

  • GOPTarHeel May 11, 2017 at 1:43 pm

    The filing deadline for UK parliamentary seats was today, and UKIP is standing down in lots of seats where they hit 20+ percent of the vote in 2015 and/or were second behind Labour. The Labour political consultant I linked below is posting a list of those seats, including Doncaster Central, mentioned by Gladstone yesterday as the seat his friend is contesting.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/with_replies


    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • Son_of_the_South May 11, 2017 at 1:50 pm

      Thank for this!


      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Upstater22 May 11, 2017 at 2:42 pm

      Some of the seats mentioned, I have added 2015 Labour margin of victory and 2015 UKIP share of the vote

      Batley & Spen: Labour won by 12.0%, UKIP share 18.0%
      Birmingham Erdington: Lab by 14.8%, UKIP 17.6%
      Birmingham Northfield: Lab by 5.9%, UKIP 16.7%
      Stoke North: Lab by 12.5%, UKIP 24.7%
      Stoke South: Lab by 6.5%, UKIP 21.2%
      Don Valley: Lab by 4.3%, UKIP 11.8%
      Wakefield: Lab by 6.1%, UKIP 18.3%
      Eltham: Lab by 6.2%, UKIP 15.0%

      That “Labour political consultant” seems to be willfully ignorant of both the polls and the local elections, which show UKIP voters going Conservative on a massive scale, even if they voted Labour or LibDem in 2010.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

  • MosheM May 11, 2017 at 1:49 pm

    Trump at 38/55 on Gallup


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Son_of_the_South May 11, 2017 at 1:51 pm

      Matches with Q


      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • jncca May 11, 2017 at 2:09 pm

    http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2017/05/10/france-2017-comprehensive-election-results-diary-part-one/#comment-428064

    Just reposting for those who didn’t see it yesterday, I’ve done the first half of my French election summary diary.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • MosheM May 11, 2017 at 2:17 pm

    Sen. Steve Daines asks Sen. Ted Cruz how he’s doing this morning. Cruz takes a sip of coffee and answers, “Just… living in the circus.”


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Son_of_the_South May 11, 2017 at 2:23 pm

      Does he have a promotion deal with the HBO show or something?


      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 2:54 pm

      Only in a world where Donald Trump is President would Ted Cruz seem like a reasonable politician who can get along well with others.

      With that said I think Cruz’s re-invention of himself is in full effect. With the healthcare bill he’s beginning the process of transforming himself into a conservative Ted Kennedy figure in the senate. If Cruz tries to run for President again 8, 12 or even 16 years down the line I think he will have a lot more establishment allies for his 2nd run.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Tekzilla May 11, 2017 at 11:13 pm

      This reminds me to recommend that everyone follow Haley Byrd on twitter. She finds the greatest little tidbits left and right in addition to doing some great reporting.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • rdelbov May 11, 2017 at 2:43 pm

    Poll for the weekend election in Germany

    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-05-11/merkels-conservatives-overtake-spd-in-battleground-state-poll

    The CDU/SPD vote continues to be super tight within margin of error. There does seem to be a steady lead for the CDU/FDP coupling compared to SPD/Greens.

    With the big vote totals going to Left & Afd some sort of grand coalition seems likely or does it?

    • jncca May 11, 2017 at 3:33 pm

      Potentially CDU — FDP — Greens.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • MosheM May 11, 2017 at 3:58 pm

    JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) — Former U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown found guilty of fraudulently taking hundreds of thousands from sham charity.


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 4:02 pm

    AL-Sen This is one of the most brutal take downs of an intro ad I have ever read:
    http://www.al.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/05/post_177.html
    The op-ed tears apart Luther Strange’s latest ad which you can watch here:
    https://youtu.be/VZKRfZbRDG8
    Memo to political consultants in an age where everyone is railing against “Fake News” its probably best not to use fake newspaper headlines in your TV ads.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Republican Michigander May 11, 2017 at 4:42 pm

      I see that “take down” is just some of the same ole media crap in response to just another campaign ad.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Conservative First May 11, 2017 at 4:27 pm

    This podcast interviewing Judd Weiss (John McAfee’s VP choice) accuses Gary Johnson’s campaign of being a scam to enrich his campaign manager. Lots of interesting info on libertarian politics.
    http://tomwoods.com/ep-906-judd-weiss-john-mcafees-vp-pick-on-what-really-happened-behind-the-scenes-and-its-not-pretty/

  • w920us May 11, 2017 at 4:43 pm

    And now all of Trump’s cabinet and cabinet-level posts have been confirmed.

    Senate confirms Trump’s chief trade negotiator
    http://thehill.com/policy/finance/332977-lighthizer-confirmed-as-chief-trade-negotiator

    “2:52 p.m. By a tally of 82-14, the nomination of Robert Lighthizer to be US Trade Representative was confirmed.
    Senators voting in favor: 45 Republicans, 36 Democrats, 1 Independent: King.
    Senators voting against: 10 Democrats: Blumenthal, Gillibrand, Harris, Markey, Merkley, Reed, Schatz, Schumer, Warren and Whitehouse. 3 Republicans: Gardner, McCain and Sasse. 1 Independent: Sanders.
    Senators not voting: 4 Republicans: Capito, Isakson, Murkowski and Sullivan.”


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • The Emperor May 11, 2017 at 7:27 pm

      Why’d Gardner vote no? Hell, why’d Sasse vote no? Was it some kind of protest vote in favor of free trade?


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 7:39 pm

        Yes. It was about free trade and Nafta.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • w920us May 11, 2017 at 6:13 pm

    Wow.

    Police: Woman followed then threatened Congressman David Kustoff
    http://wreg.com/2017/05/11/police-woman-followed-then-threatened-congressman-david-kustoff/


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • Son_of_the_South May 11, 2017 at 6:23 pm

      Wow. Middle of nowhere too


      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • rdelbov May 11, 2017 at 6:29 pm

      Really strong–I don’t know what to make of it.

    • kewgardens May 11, 2017 at 7:35 pm

      #TheResistance

  • Manhatlibertarian May 11, 2017 at 7:17 pm

    Thursday Tidbits NY

    Hudson Valley Congressman John Faso has joined Staten Island -Brooklyn Congressman Dan Donovan in saying that former NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly would be a good pick for FBI Director.

    Conservative GOP Upstate Assemblyman Steve McLaughlin says he is seriously considering running for Rensselaer County Executive, now that GOP incumbent Kathy Jimino announced she will not run for re-election. His AD leans Repub.

    Ben Walsh received the Reform Party nomination for Mayor of Syracuse; he was rejected by the GOP for educator Laura Lavine. His candidacy makes Lavine’s uphill struggle for mayor in Dem leaning Syracuse even more difficult, as he is more likely to take votes from her IMO than the Dem.

    The good government group NYC Transparency Working Group has called for a probe into Queens Dem Congressman Joe Crowley paying his lobbyist brother at least $69,700 to rent space in an office not even in his district from campaign funds. The group notes he has office space in Forest Hills and wonders why he also needs office space outside his district. Crowley is Chair of the House Democratic Caucus, and is considered the 4th highest ranking member of his party in the House.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

    • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 7:50 pm

      I would hate to lose Steve McLaughlin as a gadfly in Albany. He really is one of the few good ones there. And if you don’t follow McLaughlin on Twitter (@SteveMcNY) I highly recommend you #FF him ASAP. His Twitter feed in insane! Nobody bashes Cuomo, Flanagan and the prize patrol better than him.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Manhatlibertarian May 11, 2017 at 9:18 pm

        Yes McLaughlin is quite a contrast to Cuomo ally Flanagan. But it is frustrating to be a Repub in the heavily Dem Assembly and have no real input, so a CE position, where you can make policy in a local area, is more appealing.

        • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 9:51 pm

          No doubt being CE is WAY better for McLaughlin than being in the Assembly. But Albany needs people like McLaughlin. Its a shame he doesnt have anything else to run for. I would love for him to be in the State Senate but Kathy Marchione beating McDonald in 2012 blocked that path for him. McLaughlin passed on running for NY-19 so there really isnt anything else for him to run for and he’d probably make a great CE.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • w920us May 11, 2017 at 7:53 pm

      In more important NY news (snark intended) 😜😜

      Adelphi University Lax Team takes the field with a custom Trump speech house music remix
      http://www.barstoolsports.com/barstoolu/adelphi-university-lax-team-takes-the-field-with-a-custom-trump-speech-house-music-remix/?_branch_match_id=391364631075040937


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • kewgardens May 11, 2017 at 7:50 pm

    Correlation between 2016 presidential results and ‘second demographic transition’ characteristics like unmarriedness, postponement of marriage and parenthood, same-sex households, cohabitation, sub-replacement fertility and abortion. https://twitter.com/DavidLJarman/status/862709371536498689

    Quite stark. We really are becoming two separate countries.

    • roguemapper May 11, 2017 at 7:59 pm

      I’m not sure what land of rainbows and butterflies you’ve been living in, but we’ve been “two separate countries” for a while now. In any case, if the states are all moving in one direction, but at different rates, then we’re becoming a different country, just some are getting there faster than others. The separation is the rate of transition.


      Dem NC-11

      • kewgardens May 11, 2017 at 8:15 pm

        Well, I live on the east side of Manhattan, which is relatively close to a land of rainbows and butterflies.

        But returning to the matter at hand. What is amazing about the chart is not that different states have very divergent levels of unmarriedness, postponement of marriage and parenthood, same-sex households, cohabitation, sub-replacement fertility and abortion but that these levels match up almost perfectly with their political preferences at the presidential level.

        It seems like these cultural behaviors trump everything else when it comes to political decision-making.

        By the way, are the states all moving in one direction? If so, I guess we are dealing with a “red shift.” 🙂
        (That was for all the astronomers out there.)

        • roguemapper May 11, 2017 at 8:17 pm

          As I’ve pointed out before: orange ≠ red.


          Dem NC-11

        • Manhatlibertarian May 11, 2017 at 9:41 pm

          Yes an interesting chart that shows a relationship between the “cultural liberalism” of a state and presidential vote. Not a total surprise but confirms what many of us have suspected. California, Massachusetts and New York seem to be the bluest states, which also is not that surprising. Of course the chart doesn’t prove there is a casual relationship between the variables and the presidential vote but I don’t think you can dismiss the correlation just to chance. Like you I live in Manhattan, but in the even more “blue shifted” West Side, where being a political moderate like me (on a national scale at least) is considered reactionary by a number of my neighbors.

          • Izengabe May 11, 2017 at 9:57 pm

            LOL! I’m not allowed to talk politics with anyone in my neighborhood!


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • rdelbov May 11, 2017 at 8:46 pm

      KG

      I appreciate you posting this link-thoughtful stuff.

    • krazen1211 May 11, 2017 at 9:19 pm

      Hmm.

      I glanced at the article a bit…..it looks like there are a couple other characteristics that they left out because they didn’t fit the data so well?

      In any case….most of the shift was in the 1990s per the other charts. They had to throw McMuffin in there because otherwise some of their conclusions break a bit and 2016 basically ends up at 2012 figures.

      States in general don’t venture much beyond 66-33 one way or another…it would be better to crunch the factors based on counties and maybe one at a time rather than 6 together.

      The NYT is going with its ‘country is Divided!’ line, which they do when we win….but not when they win. Standard for the left…remember the Time magazine godfather cover? Shrug.

    • indocon May 11, 2017 at 9:38 pm

      Steve Sailor has been making this point for 12 years now, GOP does best when its cheep and easy to raise a family, i.e. housing is cheep and middle class jobs are plentiful. Dems do the best when its the opposite.

      • californianintexas May 11, 2017 at 11:01 pm

        That was about the same time as John Edwards’ “Two Americas” talk.

        The number of swing districts in the U.S. House, as well as counties I think, are also at their lowest in a long time if ever.


        34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

  • kewgardens May 11, 2017 at 8:06 pm

    The Washington Post effectively calls for the end of the First Amendment. Oh, the irony.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2017/05/11/washington-post-editorial-calls-for-universities-to-make-crystal-clear-that-racist-speech-is-off-limits/

    Expect crickets from the ACLU.

    • shamlet May 11, 2017 at 9:40 pm

      Long story short the low oil prices have shot the state’s budget to hell and impacted school funding.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • rdelbov May 11, 2017 at 9:56 pm

        GOP lost governorship in AK–in LA and is OK next?

        I think OK like TX is diverse economically for the GOP to survive in 2018.

        • jncca May 11, 2017 at 10:48 pm

          OK is probably only as diverse as LA.

          However, the GOP lost because they stupidly nominated David Vitter; I think there’s a good chance the other candidates would have won despite Jindal dragging the ticket down. If the GOP nominates a Republican who is mainstream and has no scandals I’d expect a hold in Oklahoma.


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • Red Oaks May 11, 2017 at 11:06 pm

            Technically the state GOP didn’t nominate Vitter. He was simply the highest Republican vote getter in a first round jungle primary with too many candidates. His money and high name recognition gave him a certain guaranteed minimum floor of support. The other candidates each arrogantly they would be the one to make the runoff. Otherwise I agree with you.


            MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

          • Jon May 12, 2017 at 2:07 am

            Texas is far more diverse economically than Oklahoma.

            Oklahoma’s main industries are Oil (both refineries and drilling), Agriculture, and Ranching.

            My Dad now owns within Oklahoma 1/4 of 1/2 the mineral rights to some land that was sold by granddad decades ago with 50% mineral rights retained; doing the high of the most recent oil boom an exploration company did confirm existence of potentially commercially viable oil, but the oil boom ended before a company came along to start drilling it. Hopefully during the next boom it will get drilled as I’m not sure I want to mess with 1/32nd mineral rights in a few decades anymore than the 1/40th share of a small farm I’d get if Mom doesn’t sell her 1/10th share.


            45, M, MO-02

            • Son_of_the_South May 12, 2017 at 2:32 am

              Did they pay to retain the option? Some companies will do that. I have shares in some land in LA through a family company, and for a while we were making money just off the option.


              23, R, TN-08
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • Jon May 12, 2017 at 7:09 pm

                At the time my grandad sold that property a few decades ago, it was standard practice to retain some / all mineral rights in Oklahoma. (And in Northern Texas as well)

                There’s quite a big difference in size of such checks sent to owners of mineral rights for oil when the share is 1/2th of them instead of 1/32nd.


                45, M, MO-02

  • GoldenStatesman May 11, 2017 at 11:01 pm

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_Johnson
    In reminding myself who the predecessor of TN-08 was (Fincher), I found that the 3rd man to occupy the 8th CD of TN (1829-1833) was a man by the name of Cave Johnson. At first I laughed thinking some troll slipped in an Aperture Science reference, but no. It seems there really was a Cave Johnson before the one who made the underground laboratories in Michigan.


    23, R, CA-38, Cubano, Community College Trustee

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