Political Roundup for May 12, 2017

Senate:

AL-Sen: Rep. Mo Brooks (R) plans to make a firm decision by Sunday and announce by Monday whether he will run for Senate. He would join what is already becoming a crowded field-in addition to appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R), 3 other candidates are already in for the Republican primary, suspended Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, state Sen, Ed Henry, and Christian Coalition of Alabama head Randy Brinson.

More AL-Sen: Democrats have their first prominent candidate for the August special election-former US Attorney Doug Jones. Jones was involved in the 2002 prosecution of the perpetrators of the 1963 Birmingham church bombing. Two other Democrats are running-medical marijuana activist Ron Crumpton, and Robert Kennedy, Jr of Mobile. State Democrats are not familiar with Kennedy and do not know if he is related in any way to the assassinated US Senator.

Governor:

AL-Gov: Jefferson County Commissioner David Carrington (R) announced yesterday he will run for governor. He joins Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle (R) and former Morgan County Commissioner Stacy George (R) in the race. Public Service Commissioner Twinkle Cavanaugh (R) is also considering running. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) has not yet announced whether she plans to run for the office she succeeded to last month upon the resignation of former Gov. Robert Bentley (R).

CT-Gov: Attorney General George Jepsen (D) said yesterday he will not run for governor. Jepsen was always considered less likely to run for governor than run for re-election as AG, but had been still considering the race. Although he did not announce his plans, he is likely to run for re-election.

GA-Gov: Former Acting US Attorney General Sally Yates is being encouraged to run for governor next year. She has become a popular figure among “the Resistance” after she was fired in January when she refused to defend the first travel ban in court and after her testimony this week about warning the Trump administration about ties between Michael Flynn and Russia. The pressure and excitement for her to run seems to be mostly from the outside however, and most state Democrats say they have seen no sign that she is interested in running. Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed says he hopes she will give the race strong consideration, but also said he hasn’t spoken to her about a bid.

House:

CA-26: Actor Antonio Sabato, Jr. (R) is running for Congress against Rep,. Julia Brownley (D). Sabato is a fairly obscure actor, appearing on daytime and nighttime soap operas and reality shows. He gained a little more fame last year as a vocal endorser of Donald Trump, and had a speaking slot at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Republicans were competitive in the seat in Brownley’s first two elections in 2012 and 2014, but she won by 20 points last year.

ID-1: Potential candidates are starting to line up for this open seat. Ex-LG and AG David Leroy (R) filed for the seat yesterday. Leroy is a name from the past in Idaho politics-he served as AG from 1979-83, then as LG from 1983-87, lost a close race for governor in 1986 and finished a distant second in the 1994 ID-1 primary. Former State School Superintendent Tom Luna (R) says he is strongly considering a run. State Sen. Bob Nonini (R) of Coeur d’Alene, Rep. Luke Malek (R) also of Coeur d’Alene and House Majority Leader Mike Moyle (R) of Star(Boise area) are said to be interested in running as well. Nonini and Moyle are said to lean more conservative. Leroy is described as “center right”.

NE-1: Former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Bill Hoppner is considering taking on Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) next year. Hoppner was the last Democrat to run a competitive gubernatorial race in Nebraska, taking 46% against Mike Johanns (R) in 1998. He also ran for governor in 1990, losing in the Democratic primary to Ben Nelson by just 42 votes. Hoppner was once considered a rising star in Nebraska Democratic politics and would represent a step up from the usual “Some Dude” that Democrats get for this seat, but he suffers from a similar problem that Bob Kerrey(whom he served as chief of staff when Kerrey was governor) did in his comeback attempt for US Senate in 2012-he hasn’t been on the ballot in 20 years and is completely unknown to a generation of voters.

NJ-11: Navy veteran and federal prosecutor Mikie Sherrill has announced a bid for this seat, currently held by Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R). This district has re-elected Frelinghuysen easily since his first election in 1994, but Democrats sense an opening here after the district was barely won by Donald Trump last year. The DCCC has met with state Assemblyman John McKeon (D) after Democrats in the state delegation identified him as someone who they would like to see run. McKeon is still considering running.

WV-3: State Del. Rupie Phillips (I) is planning to run for Congress as a Republican. Phillips, who was first elected in 2010 was a Democrat until January when he switched from Democrat to independent, saying the Democratic Party had become too liberal for his district. He does have a potential problem with his past-he was arrested and charged with domestic battery in 2012. He joins ex-Del. Rick Snuffer (R) who announced on Wednesday. WV GOP Chairman Conrad Lucas is also considering running. State Sen. Richard Ojeda (D) also filed yesterday. Ojeda, who received attention last year for being beaten in an attack that appeared to have been politically motivated(he was in a tough primary fight with an incumbent senator) is probably Democrats’ best chance to hold the seat, but will still be an underdog.

State & Local:

FL-SD-40: Former state Rep. Ana Rivas Logan announced yesterday she is running as a Democrat for the seat left open by the resignation of Sen. Frank Artiles (R). Logan served one term in the state House as a Republican from 2010-2012 and then disavowed the party and became a Democrat in 2014. She also ran for the seat last year, losing in the Democratic primary to former state Sen. Dwight Bullard (D). She joins two other Hispanic women running in the Democratic primary, state Rep. Daisy Baez (D) and former LG nominee and FL-26 candidate Annette Taddeo.

ID-LG: Former Idaho GOP Chairman Steve Yates will run for LG next year. He joins a crowded Republican primary including state Sen. Marv Hagedorn (R), state Rep. Kelly Packer (R), businesswoman Janice McGeachin and former Constitutional Party gubernatorial candidate Steve Pankey. No Democrats have yet filed to run. Current LG Brad Little (R) is running for governor.

OH-Treas.: Newark City Councilman Jeremy Blake (D) says he is considering running for state Treasurer. No other Democrats have yet announced they plan to run. Franklin County Auditor Clarence Mingo and state Rep. Robert Sprague (R) have announced on the Republican side.

Other:

WATN?: Former Rep. Corrine Brown (D) has been found guilty of fraud involving a bogus charity set up for use as a slush fund for her. She was indicted on federal corruption charges last July and lost the Democratic primary in August to now Rep. Al Lawson (D).

 

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92 Comments

  • Upstater22 May 12, 2017 at 7:09 am

    For SOTS (or any others interested in next months GE), this site lists where each party in the UK is standing:
    https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/numbers/election/parl.2017-06-08/parties

    Note that it is being updated in real time (UKIP has gone from 252 to 269 in the last half hour) and that “Labour” and “Labour and Co-operative” are listed as separate parties.


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • Ryan_in_SEPA May 12, 2017 at 8:16 am

      The Official Monster Raving Loony Party has only named 12 candidates. Sad.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • Red Oaks May 12, 2017 at 4:36 pm

      As of late Friday UKIP is only fielding 377 total candidates in Great Britain compared to 459 for the Greens and 558 for UKIP back in 2010 when they only received 3.1% of the overall popular vote. So yes, the UKIP vote will collapse to low single digits.

      In Northern Ireland both Sinn Fein and SDLP are fielding a full slate of 18 candidates while the Unionist Parties are apparently standing down in a few.


      MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

  • MosheM May 12, 2017 at 7:36 am

    Checking in from London.

    Great roundup GBRS!


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • FiveAngels May 12, 2017 at 7:46 am

    My money in AL Dem primary is on RFK!

  • rdelbov May 12, 2017 at 7:48 am

    Alabama house passed its redistricting bill

    https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/alabama/articles/2017-05-11/house-democrats-continue-delay-of-redistricting-bill

    The senate and house will likely pass each other’s bills next week as each body has acted on its own plan. Here is are maps of old and new seats

    http://www.legislature.state.al.us/aliswww/ISD/ALReap_Maps.aspx

    Basically the GOP map restores AA% to 2002 levels for most seats (as opposed to what was done in some seats in 2012) and smoothed out a few county/city lines. Basically they complied with the 2017 court order.

    • krazen1211 May 12, 2017 at 9:45 am

      Thanks for the maps! I think Bill Pryor was involved in this case.

      I am looking at the districts and seeing minimal changes in the Senate map. Currently the Alabama State Senate is 25-8 and I see no partisan changes.

  • segmentation_fault May 12, 2017 at 7:59 am

    Yesterday Emmanuel Macron named candidates in 428/577 districts for parliament. 1/2 are women, and 24 are sitting MPs, all Socialists. Many are political novices.

    He has until next Weds to name the remaining candidates. A lot of the districts where Macron hasn’t named candidates yet are places where he might back rogue Républicains who want to join his party. In some (like former PM Valls’ district), they are not going to run a candidate at all. Valls wanted to join the party but was rejected. So this was a sort of compromise.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/11/macron-party-struggling-to-fill-candidate-list-for-elections-next-month


    core dumped

  • MaxwellsDemon May 12, 2017 at 8:39 am

    Trump has decided the best way to defend his firing of James Comey…is to publicly threaten James Comey on Twitter. We might as well get ready for President Harris with 60 votes in the Senate in 2020.

    • Tekzilla May 12, 2017 at 8:40 am

      Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 13m13 minutes ago
      More
      James Comey better hope that there are no “tapes” of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!

      Wow, just wow. Self Destruction has hit level 11.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • FiveAngels May 12, 2017 at 9:03 am

      Most of the people here have been preparing for President Hillary with 60 votes since March 2016, and look how that worked out!

      • GOPTarHeel May 12, 2017 at 9:07 am

        Can our Trumpiest people defend this behavior? I see zero upside to random Twitter ranting and flatly contradicting his own spokespeople constantly.


        R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

        • shamlet May 12, 2017 at 9:11 am

          The only upside I can think of is distraction – Trump’s MO for the last two years has been to say so many outrageous/ridiculous things in such rapid succession that none of them is salient. It’s obviously not as good as actually being sane (as we saw earlier this year when he became relatively popular in his few moments of lucidity), but as far as strategies go it’s proven to not be the worst one.


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

          • Tekzilla May 12, 2017 at 9:29 am

            Difference now being he would go from topic to topic before. Now he’s just drilling deeper and deeper on a single topic.

            What happens when we hit our first crisis that isn’t Trump self inflicted?


            36/M/NY-01 (D)

            • shamlet May 12, 2017 at 9:44 am

              Not really – it’s been what, two days? If this lasts more than a news cycle I’d agree with you – two weeks from now if he’s still on it then there’s a problem. Otherwise this more of is the same chaos game he’s been playing.


              R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

        • FiveAngels May 12, 2017 at 9:12 am

          I’m not interested in the noise. Bottom line, Trump fired a permanent bureaucracy douchebag whom cognoscenti believed was “unfireable” and I love it — that’s exactly why I decided to support him.

          • GOPTarHeel May 12, 2017 at 9:32 am

            No one ever said Comey was unfireable. Trump was well within his rights to do that. But he bungles the rationale by making subtext the text, humiliates everyone working for him constantly, and derails his own policy agenda based on television-based grievances.


            R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

            • FiveAngels May 12, 2017 at 9:52 am

              Hence the scare quotes. It was considered technically legal but extremley unlikely as a practical matter. No one will remember the other stuff by the end of the month.

          • TennesseeMike May 12, 2017 at 9:42 am

            I agree.
            Should Trump just keep his mouth and keyboard silent? Yes
            Do any of his diehard supports care? Probably not.
            And do 99% of voters really care what happens to Comey our what they say about each other? I doubt it.
            So will this bring about a Democrat President and 60 Democrat votes in the Senate? No.


            TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

            • Izengabe May 12, 2017 at 1:40 pm

              Its not about Comey. Its about amatuer hour at the White House. If voters think Trump is completely incompetent and incapable of doing simple things (like firing an FBI director who has fairly or unfairly become a political lightning rod for criticism) without it blowing up in his face Republicans will pay at the polls. But anyone who ever watched The Apprentice should of known that Trump’s managerial style is a complete disaster. Every week someone would screw up a simple task royally and Trump would have to fire someone. Sadly, it is clear that that Apprentice management style has carried over to the White House. So stay tune next week to see who will be the next one to screw up a simple assignment and get fired from the Trump Administration.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

              • segmentation_fault May 12, 2017 at 2:24 pm

                Spoiler alert: Spicer


                core dumped

              • prsteve11 May 12, 2017 at 3:33 pm

                The only reason this ‘blew up in his face’ is because the media/Dems will pounce on anything he does and blare it as top headlines for a week. Do we honestly think Hillary Clinton would have faced the same blowback if she’d fired Comey? Granted, President Trump’s approach to things can seem haphazard and different (to say the least) but don’t forget that during the campaign, things like this happened all the time like his fights with a Hispanic judge, the Khan family, etc, etc. This is nothing new and most Americans know he’s like this by now.


                SC-03, Conservative Republican

            • segmentation_fault May 12, 2017 at 2:22 pm

              Nah, it will bring about a Democratic president and 51-53 votes in the Senate. 60 are just not there.


              core dumped

        • TheWizardOf144 May 12, 2017 at 9:12 am

          Sure can. “The Resistance” is the alternative.

          • Tekzilla May 12, 2017 at 9:28 am

            Beyond ridiculous. The options aren’t Buy what Trump is selling OR join the resistance. Come on man.


            36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • GOPTarHeel May 12, 2017 at 9:35 am

            Oh please. I doubt you’ll ever see me in an ugly pink hat proclaiming my love for politicized caricatures of science.


            R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

            • cer May 12, 2017 at 1:47 pm

              I just sit back and watch the pink hat types make complete fools of themselves. Anyone on the left who are dumb enough to join that movement, you deserve all the push back that you will get.


              Conservative first, Republican second!

              • cer May 12, 2017 at 1:56 pm

                By the way, the same can be said for anyone on the right who jumps on board the ALT-RIGHT wagon. IMHO that is equally dumb.


                Conservative first, Republican second!

        • MikeFL May 12, 2017 at 2:34 pm

          This, seriously. On another note, while there is a lot of talk about #theresistsance bubble (which is true), I think some people are willfully ignoring how Trump got elected in the first place: losing the popular vote, with the margin of victory in the Rust Belt states being less than Jill Stein’s margin of victory. If the Democrats don’t renominate someone as bad as Hillary to make it a lesser of two evils election again, the constant BS this administration does is going to make him easily lose in 2020.

          Of course, at this point I’m of the mind that he won’t run for reelection if he doesn’t get impeached, considering how likely disenchanted he is with everything anyway from his public comments.


          26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

          • TexasR May 12, 2017 at 2:41 pm

            I think those same people are also willfully ignoring the other part about how the Donald got elected in the first place, namely: running up the score among demographics which also increasingly live in a bubble.


            Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
            Be careful what you wish for

      • rdelbov May 12, 2017 at 9:21 am

        Merkel is doomed!! Who will can take her place for the next’s year election was CW for last year. Now I see this!

        https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/11/angela-merkel-germany-campaign-trail-crucial-bellwether-poll-martin-schulz

        Nationally CDU has a 7% lead over SDP and with FDP comeback they are looking at sweet poll numbers. Not too excited about polls right now.

        • FiveAngels May 12, 2017 at 9:29 am

          German politics are so exciting. Their entire political system fits into the Senate Democratic caucus.

    • TennesseeMike May 12, 2017 at 9:56 am

      Do you really think Democrats will get 60 seats in the Senate from the 2020 elections? I don’t see it. Of those Republican Senators elected in 2014 I don’t see more than 3-5 being vulnerable. Colorado, Maine and North Carolina could be vulnerable. I guess Alaska, Georgia, Iowa and West Virginia (If Capito doesn’t run for re-election, though I don’t know why she wouldn’t) could be vulnerable under the perfect storm conditions. The rest of the states Republicans won are hard to see as vulnerable unless LGDB happens. So I just don’t know where these mythical 60 Democrat seats are coming from. Especially from the 2020 Senate elections.


      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

      • roguemapper May 12, 2017 at 10:00 am

        51 and 218 is good enough for me!


        Dem NC-11

        • TennesseeMike May 12, 2017 at 10:10 am

          As long as Republicans do OK in 2018 (say gain 3-4 senate seats), 51 is going to be very hard too. There just aren’t many Senate seats to gain in the 2020 elections for Democrats. 2022, yes. But not in 2020.


          TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

          • rdelbov May 12, 2017 at 2:07 pm

            Kamala Harris will certainly be a D Presidential candidate who be be great campaigning against incumbent R senators in WV, NC, GA, KY, SD and MT. She might bring AR and LA seats into play as well.

            • TennesseeMike May 12, 2017 at 3:18 pm

              Dream away.
              I wonder who you think would beat Tom Cotton when Democrats have no state wide elected office holders. And no Congressmen.


              TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

              • kewgardens May 12, 2017 at 3:28 pm

                You do understand the concept of sarcasm, yes?

                • TennesseeMike May 12, 2017 at 3:42 pm

                  Sorry, I missed it this time. Now that I re-read the post I see it.
                  Sometimes it is hard to know the tone of written words. No offense, RDELBOV, I hope.


                  TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

                  • rdelbov May 12, 2017 at 3:48 pm

                    I did not take offense. I prefer not to use those smiley face things or LOL. So some of my comments get miscontrued. I do find it humorous that some of our D friends think that Kamala Harris is a threat in 2020. She has the Obama traits like extreme liberalism but she is not articulate and lacks his charm and charisma. IMO Harris would be a D disaster in 2020.

            • prsteve11 May 12, 2017 at 3:54 pm

              Kamala Harris brings very little to the table. She is a tired-looking San Francisco liberal who would alienate Middle America and would be very unlikely to help Dems in most of those states you mention.


              SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • prsteve11 May 12, 2017 at 3:27 pm

      No don’t expect something like that. Donald Trump is just being Donald Trump. I think this whole thing will blow over before too long. Interestingly, Gallup showed his job approval jumping from 38% to 41% today. Could be noise but it’s clear the floor isn’t falling out like the media/liberals hope.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • Mayor Perk May 12, 2017 at 8:42 am

    AL-Sen: Former US Attorney Doug Jones (D) is running in the special on the Dem side.

    http://www.wvtm13.com/article/doctor-delivers-her-own-baby-on-highway-1494580308/9643217


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Tekzilla May 12, 2017 at 9:00 am

      Maybe the best non Maddox/Cobb get? Not that it means much, D’s need the Moore to somehow pull of a miracle to have a shot.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • GoBigRedState May 12, 2017 at 12:20 pm

      In the roundup. Please try not to repeat posting of stories that have been in the roundup already.


      45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

  • Mayor Perk May 12, 2017 at 9:14 am

    CO-AG: Former University of Colorado Law School Dean & Obama Admin Official Phil Wesier (D) announces bid for state AG. He begins his campaign with a formal endorsement from Former Sen. & Interior Secretary Ken Salazar (D).

    http://www.denverpost.com/2017/05/11/phil-weiser-attorney-general-colorado/


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • Mayor Perk May 12, 2017 at 9:20 am

    New Orleans Mayor: Retire Civil Court Judge Michael Mike Bagneris announced he will run for mayor in the nonpartisan primary in October. City Councilwoman Latoya Cantrell and developer Frank Scurlock are also in the race.

    http://wgno.com/2017/05/11/retired-judge-mike-bagneris-announces-bid-for-mayor/


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Mayor Perk May 12, 2017 at 9:37 am

      #TheResistance


      30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • andyroo312 May 12, 2017 at 9:38 am

    Run, Twinkle…rruuunnnn!


    MA-7

  • krazen1211 May 12, 2017 at 9:50 am

    Ohio redistricting business. I am seeing an 11-4 map here…CW seems to be that 16 and 7 will be meshed but I am looking for other ways.

    For instance I think our first moves should be to condense 2 districts more into the Cincinnati area and also cut OH-11 solely to Cuyahoga County. All of Akron fits into OH-13. Butler into OH-01, and Warren into OH-10.

    http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170504/dewine-ruling-dashes-hopes-of-2017-redistricting-vote

    A ruling by Attorney General Mike DeWine on Thursday killed any hope that advocates had of using the fall ballot in an attempt to change how Ohio congressional districts are drawn.

    • Mayor Perk May 12, 2017 at 9:53 am

      That ballot measure is for November 2018 so they still have plenty of time, unfortunately.


      30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • WingNightAlone May 12, 2017 at 11:14 am

      I’m still on for the 12-3– Columbus votesink (1), Cleveland VRA (2), Canton/Akron/Youngstown/etc mess (3). Toledo should be crackable, I’m adamant.


      25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

      • Mayor Perk May 12, 2017 at 11:55 am

        Bye bye Kaptur?


        30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

        • WingNightAlone May 12, 2017 at 12:24 pm

          Yep. Can’t find a PVI swing map at the moment but I assume OH01 needs to be shored up, and 12 and 15 need to be resorted a little. OH06 can take on some bluer turf I bet, and 7, 4, and 5 should be able to gobble up 9– worse case scenario, dismantle 16 and turn 9 into a swing seat. Or maybe carve up a depopulating 13 and attach its bluest parts to Akron/Canton, shoring up 16.


          25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

          • krazen1211 May 12, 2017 at 12:52 pm

            The closest competitive R districts are:

            OH-14 – Trump +12. Not much to do here…..add areas like Strongsville and Bath township between Cleveland and Akron
            OH-01 – Trump +6. Didn’t really swing much. I propose adding Boehner’s old base of Butler County, dropping some of Cincinnati….plus makes the map easier.
            OH-10 – Trump +6. Either split Montgomery County like it was in the 2000s (better)…..or just merely add nearby Rs.

            The 2 Columbus R districts OH-12 and OH-15 simply shed some precincts into the OH-03 vote sink.

          • Jon May 12, 2017 at 6:56 pm

            Shoring up #01 is easier if that seat needs to gain population. (Just give it part of #8)
            It may also be possible to have #2 add some D precincts of #1 with a four point differential between their PVI indexes but unless #1 needs to gain population what can be done without risking both seats in a D wave might be limited.


            45, M, MO-02

    • Jon May 12, 2017 at 6:48 pm

      I don’t like the double bunk incumbents of #16 & #7 together unless the same map also gives enough Republican portions of those two districts to #13 to flip that seat.


      45, M, MO-02

  • w920us May 12, 2017 at 10:39 am

    Amusingly, Axios, a left leaning blog news site, finds that the Comey firing is getting less social media saturation less than even Maddow’s tax episode fiasco. Americans are turning off the drama of DC and returning to their own lives.

    The not-so-viral Comey firing
    https://www.axios.com/americans-cared-less-about-comey-than-other-trump-scandals-2403228957.html


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • Greyhound May 12, 2017 at 10:51 am

      Honestly, I think the whole thing is massively undercut by the Democrat’s flip-flopping on Comey. Its kind of hard to explain away the fact that Trump just did exactly what the Democrats have been demanding for 6 months now, yet it is now a massive ethics scandal. Maxine Water’s “Clinton firing Trump would be okay, but Trump doing it is a huge scandal” being the most honest take on it that I’ve seen yet.

      Trump still has a lot of questions to answer, but he’s survived worse than this before.


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • w920us May 12, 2017 at 10:57 am

        It also doesn’t help that The Resistance aka Democrats, the MSM & other SJW groups, are now like “the boy who cried wolf” too many times. Is this like the 8th constitutional crisis and end to American Democracy as we know it declared? LOL


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

        • w920us May 12, 2017 at 11:14 am

          LOL. Full Frontal spooled all of CNN analyst Jeffrey Toobin’s reactions on several different news programs. Which were all the exact same thing.

          https://youtu.be/lOjbG0KYveE


          R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
          #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • prsteve11 May 12, 2017 at 4:00 pm

        Looking at his poll numbers over the past few days don’t show him bottoming out or anything so it’s likely Americans are tuning this whole thing out. Guys like Senator Warner of VA go around saying that the Russia investigation is the most important thing he’s ever done. My response to that is it doesn’t sound like he’s done very many important things. And the Dems talk about impeachment when what they would be impeaching him for is just doing something they don’t agree with. I don’t think President Trump has handled this whole episode in the best way, but it’s not going to sink him.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • Upstater22 May 12, 2017 at 11:10 am

      I mentioned the other day that being angry at everything all the time takes a toll and that the faux outage machine (aka the resistance) has been dying down and is not as active as it was a couple months ago. I was informed that I was wrong and that “activity has been through the roof”. Definitely looks like somebody was wrong.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • Tekzilla May 12, 2017 at 12:38 pm

        Last I checked I was referring to what I was seeing in my newsfeed and twitter feed. I stand by that 100%. I never claimed that my group of friends on Facebook and twitter were representative of the entire country.

        Next time though don’t worry, I’ll be sure to have all my info right like Sarah Huckabee Sanders.


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • Upstater22 May 12, 2017 at 12:47 pm

          “Gotta wonder who you are following on social media then” was the snarky reply to my observation. You no longer need to wonder, however, as my assessment was correct, based on this data. Maybe gotta wonder what kind of bubble you live in if you have not seen any drop off.


          Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

          • Son_of_the_South May 12, 2017 at 4:14 pm

            Eh, I’ve seen no drop-off, but I live in the DC bubble. In fact, members of this site, while orders of magnitude more well-informed and grounded compared to your average activist, also sometimes live in their own bubble. I of course include myself in this as well.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA May 12, 2017 at 2:30 pm

      If the Democrats would just let Trump hang himself and tone down the “Upper Middle Class White People are being oppressed” BS, Trump’s “erratic” behavior would be having a bigger impact.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • Manhatlibertarian May 12, 2017 at 11:07 am

    The question is whether or not the Comey firing is another “talking heads” media controversy that doesn’t resonate with the average voter or whether it is doing damage to Trump and the Republicans. It is clear this has not been handled well by the Trump Admin with conflicting stories about the firing and a confused “gang that couldn’t shoot straight” atmosphere. I’ve read Trump now may want to dump Spicer, which probably would be a good move since he seems to excel at antagonizing people and is not good at getting the Trump Admin message across. Whether or not Trump is the subject of an FBI investigation is a key element here. If he was not then the “Watergate” analogy, where Nixon wanted the AG to fire the special prosecutor who was investigating him doesn’t hold up. There have been hints he is not but nothing definite on this. But again does all this have a lasting impact on voters. The Montana special election later this month may give us some idea of the voter impact, particularly if the Dem wins, although as I have pointed out the Dem candidate Quist is a “damaged goods” guy who has continual negative press coverage about his tax and debt problems so I don’t know how good a public opinion barometer the Montana special election is.

    • Republican Michigander May 12, 2017 at 11:28 am

      From what I’ve seen, this is largely viewed as just the same old political BS with the same categories that aren’t changing anytime soon.

      1. The Trump haters hate Trump. It won’t matter what he does. It’s tribalism.
      2. The Trump defenders love Trump. It won’t matter what he does. “He’s our guy.”
      3. Trump sucks less.
      4. D’s suck less.
      5. The fake news media’s hates his guts so much that I can’t believe a word these liars say. (They deserve special mention)
      6. Politics is crooked, so I’ll just worry about the economy and vote my pocketbook.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • w920us May 12, 2017 at 11:33 am

        Here’s an amusing article in regards to No. 5 on your list.

        This One Screenshot Captures Everything Wrong With Media Coverage Of Trump
        http://thefederalist.com/2017/05/11/one-screenshot-captures-everything-wrong-media-coverage-trump/


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

        • Republican Michigander May 12, 2017 at 11:41 am

          I saw that earlier and posted it to my County Party failbook (I mean facebook) page.


          MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • Manhatlibertarian May 12, 2017 at 12:12 pm

          Well that does it! Trump gets an extra scoop of ice cream and Thousand Islands dressing on his salad at White House dinners but others don’t get that. What more evidence do you want that this man should be impeached!

      • roguemapper May 12, 2017 at 12:13 pm

        Just for the record, #2 is also tribalism. He’s your clan chieftain if you prefer. lol


        Dem NC-11

  • Manhatlibertarian May 12, 2017 at 12:01 pm

    Gov Cuomo has touted his free college tuition program (initially for families with income of $100,000 or less-eventually $125,000 or less) for the state/city SUNY and CUNY systems as bold progressive legislation (endorsed by Bernie Sanders) which will establish NY as leader in education that other states may want to emulate. However, early indications are that the program may not be as far reaching as originally proclaimed; the SUNY Finance and Administrative Committee estimates that only about 5% of the undergraduate class (about 31000 students) at best may take advantage of the “Excelsior Scholarship” program. To begin with, this program only kicks in when other federal and state tuition assistance programs, like Pell and TAP Grants, are fully utilized first. Students must be full time (which knocks out a lot of CUNY students in particular), graduate on time and maintain a high enough grade point average. Students must also agree to remain in NY after graduation for the same time period they receive these grants while in college; if they move out of NY State during this time period the grant turns into a loan. IMO this program will have limited impact and mainly help suburban/upstate middle class families who attend four year state colleges. We will have to see what develops for the upcoming school year but right now it looks like the program will have limited effect. If other “blue” states want to emulate this program they may want to read the “fine print” first.

    By the way if you don’t qualify for the Excelsior Scholarship program SUNY tuition is going up $200 a year for the next four years.

    http://www.twcnews.com/nys/capital-region/politics/2017/05/11/excelsior-scholarship-free-tuition-public-schools-floss-suny-buffalo-state.html/

  • Conservative First May 12, 2017 at 12:03 pm

    MI: Geoffrey Feiger considering run for governor, president
    http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/05/12/fieger-considering-run-governor/101590714/

    • kewgardens May 12, 2017 at 12:26 pm

      President, please.

      • Izengabe May 12, 2017 at 1:56 pm

        No please nominate him for MI-Gov!


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Red Oaks May 12, 2017 at 4:12 pm

          Why not both? He made it sound like he is interested in one after the other.

          All joking aside, I do view it as a long shot for him to jump into either race.


          MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

    • Ryan_in_SEPA May 12, 2017 at 2:33 pm

      Trump wins a 45 state landslide.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

      • fzw May 12, 2017 at 5:44 pm

        I think Democrats could nominate Maxine Waters and Trump would still lose any state to the left of New Mexico. His ceiling is too low and opposition too intensified against him to win that kind of rout


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

  • Izengabe May 12, 2017 at 2:25 pm

    FBI raided a fake GOP PAC. The group was sued by Ken Cuccinelli because they raised over $2.2 million which they claimed was for him through something called the Conservative StrikeForce PAC in 2013 but only gave $10,000 to Cuccinelli’s campaign. IMHO jail is too good for the scum that run these scam PACs. They should be strung up in the town square and pelted with rotten tomatoes for subverting the democratic process to steal money from unsuspecting donors:
    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/05/12/fbi-raids-gop-consultant-over-2013-virginia-governors-race.html


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Ryan_in_SEPA May 12, 2017 at 2:34 pm

      Further evidence that the Political Staffer / Consultant Industrial Complex needs to be liquidated.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • Ryan_in_SEPA May 12, 2017 at 2:36 pm

    PA-Lt. Gov: We got a potential challenger to Lt. Governor Mike Stack in the D primary:

    http://www.politicspa.com/potential-stack-challenger-considers-run/83058/

    She is a nobody by even PA Lt. Governor primary standards.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • Boehnerwasright May 12, 2017 at 2:49 pm

    Let’s step back from the Comey ”scandal” and come back to something that will very likely matter in 2018. The Obamacare repeal and replace effort is still a mess. This should be treated as an emergency by the republicans in the house/senate and not something that has to be done to unlock tax cuts. Obamacare haunted the democrats for 6+ years and Paul Ryan thinks he can just pass something and never look touch that topic again?

    The bill is really unpopular, republicans are using talking points they can’t possible fullfill and everyone thinks the senate will fix it, while next to noone is saying just how the senate is supposed to do that. There is not even something close to a unified message on the law, which produces a lot of statements that will end up in democratic attack ads
    The WP article I posted below captures the problems quite well. As I see republicans say a a 880 billion cut in medicaid(one of many problematic statements) will lead to no changes I really have to ask: Have we learned nothing from the Obamacare debacle?
    (https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/republicans-misstate-again-and-again-on-tv-and-at-town-halls-whats-in-their-health-care-bill/2017/05/11/80e72ab8-34dd-11e7-b4ee-434b6d506b37_story.html?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.916128798243&wpisrc=nl_politics&wpmm=1)

    • krazen1211 May 12, 2017 at 4:11 pm

      Well, without starting anything on policy, there is at least a valid case that a lot of medicaid money is both wasteful and creates perverse incentives for spendthrift states. We have to find a good sweet spot, and I think they are mostly there but they have to spend more money.

      This general take I think is correct. Best thing the Congressional GOP can do for itself is figure out good legislation. They are the ones up in 2018 anyway.

      • Boehnerwasright May 12, 2017 at 4:33 pm

        With my mediciaid example I didn’t want to argue that reforming medicaid is wrong. I would even argue reforming medicare should be a high priority.

        I took it as example how the communication for the changes in AHCA is really trying to provoke an electoral backlash. If you want lasting reform to medicaid, that won’t be used sucessfull by democrats in attack ads and reversed the next time dems are in power, you have to convince the american public of your changes. If you start lying about the impact your reforms have or argue that the states are responsable even you are the one cutting the money, people will also not trust your other better arguments.

        There are good arguments to make that medicaid needs an overhaul. Perverse incentives, costs and missing flexibility for the states are the biggest. Convincing the american public on these points is both more durable and less likly to provoke a backlash.

        • krazen1211 May 12, 2017 at 5:21 pm

          Meh……I don’t necessarily agree, because a lot of that is wonkish technical crap….and nobody listens to that.

          Realistically, nobody was listening to anything Rs said on healthcare for the last 7 years. And there’s maybe 8 months or so of time to dump Obamacare. We did learn the right lesson in doing this in the odd year rather than let it drag.

          On health care in particular I think anyone who tries to move is going to lose….as long as most people are happy enough with their own healthcare and the other side can just reflexively oppose things and demagogue it to death. The convincing you speak of is probably impossible, although maybe we can sell AHCA to our own voters.

          I think all the Senate can do is write the best bill it can make that can pass.

          • Son_of_the_South May 12, 2017 at 6:29 pm

            That’s not actually the base problem, though. The base problem is that healthcare has no politically viable fixes outside of a few specific areas. It’s a good with a demand curve of almost 1 for the best care possible. Part of that has to do with price drops not keeping pace with technological advancements. Part of it is the existence of insurance itself that allows people to get that ‘best care possible. And part of it is a medical ethics problem where doctors have an ethical responsibility to provide that care even if the patient has no ability to pay.


            23, R, TN-08
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • segmentation_fault May 12, 2017 at 3:55 pm

    Sounds like Trump is seriously considering not having a press secretary?
    https://mobile.twitter.com/FoxNews/status/863109918928142336


    core dumped

  • Aday97 May 12, 2017 at 5:47 pm

    This is random, but does anyone have the Murphy vs rubio numbers I’m FL? I’m doing some research. I’m especially interested in Deutch and Frankels districts.

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