Political Roundup for May 15th, 2017

Please check back later today for our preview of tomorrow’s Pennsylvania local election primaries, LA City Council runoffs, and the SC-05 Republican runoff. Until then, here’s some electoral tidbits to take your mind off the fact that you forgot to call your mother yesterday.

Congress

IN-Sen: Oh boy. We’re barely into the 2018 primary cycle, and already there’s a fist fight going on in a key Senate race. After it was reported that Rep. Luke Messer’s (R) wife made good money off of legal work done for the City of Fishers (a wealthy suburb north of Indianapolis), Messer is firing back at insinuations of corruption. He’s calling the whole thing a ‘hatchet job’ by Rep.Todd Rokita (R). Both men are looking to run against Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) next year. Rokita’s problem is that Messer got the jump on him and has already built a campaign, complete with touring the state and securing many private endorsements for later release. Rokita is known to be cautious and doesn’t like primary fights. If the report really was planted by him, he’s probably trying to push Messer out of the way so that he can get a mostly-cleared primary field. Expect to hear more about this in the coming days. It’s gonna get nasty unless one of the two men rules themselves out of the race.

PA-Sen/PA-Gov: State Rep. David Reed (R), the Pennsylvania House Majority Leader, has ended speculation over a possible gubernatorial or senatorial run. Personally I think this was very smart. He might be in leadership, but he’s still 1/203. The State Senate or the US House would be a much wiser choice of next rung.

Governor

IL-Gov: On the question of ‘which rich guy do we want to put up against Gov. Rauner?,’ it appears that the Democratic establishment in the Land of Lincoln have made their choice. Billionaire J.B. Pritzker has become the consensus pick of the Madigan machine and the unions (but I repeat myself). This has left the less-rich-but-still-loaded Chris Kennedy (yes, THOSE Kennedys) somewhat out in the cold. That’s kind of funny, because establishment Democrats were the ones who originally wooed him into joining the race. Kennedy may still put up a fight, but it’s hard to beat the machine.

MI-Gov: All I want for Christmas is for Geoffrey Fieger to run for governor again. Fieger, who was such a bad candidate when he was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 1998 that he single-handedly assured a third term for then-Gov. John Engler (R), is talking about running again in 2018. Finger’s loss was so bad that he only won Wayne County. That’s right, folks – he lost both Ingham AND Washtenaw. If he were to run, his biggest opponent in the primary would be State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D), who is already gathering support. Please, Geoffrey, run! Do it for the people!

State/Local

CO-AG: Well, it looks like the #Resistance crew have found their candidate against Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R). Denver attorney Phil Weiser (D) announced his candidacy and immediately pledged to fight President Trump at every turn using the powers of the state attorney general’s office. He was promptly endorsed by a range of former Obama administration figures including former Colorado Senator and former Interior Secretary Ken Salazar.

PA-LG: Look, there’s no doubt that Lt. Gov. Mike Stack (D- Northeast Phiily Machine-in-Exile) is in a bit of trouble. He and his wife have been accused of abusing state workers. He’s also been accused of running up a curiously high hotel bill in his city of residence. However, I don’t think that a Pittsburgh political activist is really going to cut it as a credible primary challenger against him. Aryanna Berringer doesn’t think that, though. If she did, she wouldn’t be thinking of running against him.

AL-Redistricting: The State House has now passed the court-ordered redistricting plan for their own districts. Democrats in the chamber of course objected because, well, painting Republicans as racist is basically the reason for their caucus’ existence.

OH-Redistricting: Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) has rejected the ballot language offered by proponents of the referendum to give Ohio a redistricting commission for US House of Representatives districts. This means that the referendum will not be on the ballot in the fall and must wait until 2018.

New Orleans-Mayor: Michael Bagneris, a retired civil court judge, has thrown his hat into the ring for the mayoralship of the Crescent City. There are currently two other announced candidates: City Councilwoman Latoya Cantrell, and developer and possible nutcase Frank Scurlock. Scurlock was recently arrested near the Civil War memorials that the city has been planning to demolish. The charges sound like BS, but his claim that by advocating that the monuments stay he’s trying to stop ‘Civil War II’ is hilarious.

International

France: Newly-elected French President Emmanuel Macron has just won a landslide victory, but he faces an immediate problem: there are no members of his new En Marche! party in parliament. He can change that, but first he needs candidates to run for the party in next month’s elections. He’s put together a colorful list of names, but he’s having some trouble getting enough to run candidates everywhere.

UK: Well, that backfired. The Greens, knowing that they aren’t likely to win many seats next month, decided to stand down in a few key constituencies where they thought it would help Labour win against the Tories and urged Team Corbyn and the Liberal Democrats to do the same amongst themselves. It caught on with a few Labourites, but overall they’ve been met with a deafening silence. Not only that, but it gave UKIP an idea about how to go out with dignity while giving the Remoaners a final kick in the teeth. After saying for a while that they’d not run candidates against Brexiteers in both major parties, they pulled a surprise out of their caps and purposely failed to contest a couple dozen Tory/Labour marginals, especially in Southern England (mostly in London) and the Midlands. A bit of the UKIP vote will return to Labour, but the vast majority will go to the Conservatives. This is the first and last time I’ll say this: Well played, Mr. Nuttall. Well played.

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169 Comments

  • Upstater22 May 15, 2017 at 7:18 am

    Survation poll of Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 48% (+1)
    LAB: 30% (-)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    Average of the 4 weekend polls. CON 47.5% LAB 31.25% LDEM 8.75% UKIP 5%


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • Upstater22 May 15, 2017 at 7:38 am

      ICM/Guardian:

      CON: 48% (-1)
      LAB: 28% (+1)
      LDEM: 10% (+1)
      UKIP: 6% (-)
      GRN: 3% (-)


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • Son_of_the_South May 15, 2017 at 7:57 am

        It seems like the slight Labour gains have stabilized. They’re now just getting murdered instead of obliterated.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA May 15, 2017 at 8:11 am

          It also appears the Tories have stabilized near their high water mark number as well instead of the lower number.

          I would still call it obliterated though. That will be the widest margin two party vote margin since 1931.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy May 15, 2017 at 3:26 pm

            Maybe Duverger’s Law is finally coming to the UK! Labour isn’t doing that badly compared to its historical norm – it got 29% in 2010, 30% in 2015, and most notably before New Labour, got 31% in 1987.

            The demise of the Liberals is pretty remarkable. They had bounced pretty consistently between 17% and 23% in every election from 1984 to 2010. Then 2015 annihilated them and they’re not really showing many signs of life, despite the media constantly trying to puff them up.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 3:41 pm

              There’s nothing worse for a protest party than having to go into government. They went from the home of protest voters from the left (anti-war and student vote) and right (disgruntled middle class voters in SW/SE England) to completely blowing apart once the coalition exposed their lack of any core beliefs.


              R/NC-4.

            • Greyhound May 15, 2017 at 3:47 pm

              I mean, that’s like saying the GOP getting 160 House seats “Isn’t doing that badly compared to its historical norm”. Holding pace with their historical low, without the 3rd party that was the main reason for said low point, is not exactly good.


              R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

              • VastBlightKingConspiracy May 15, 2017 at 4:02 pm

                Oh, I mean, Labourites should still feel like crap on election night. In fact, this is even more depressing. There’s this weird belief that Labour will surge to a majority again as soon as they off get Corbyn and put somebody milque-toast back in charge. This is of course, false, as I believe that this means there’s room for Labour to do much worse. Labour isn’t anywhere near rock bottom.

                As you mentioned, Corbyn’s economic agenda is still scoring points. Imagine how Labour would do as soon as they jettisoned Corbyn’s economic manifesto but kept all of his toxic stances on everything else. That is rock bottom – and that is the conventional wisdom of left-of-center elites about what they need to replace Corbyn with.


                I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                • Greyhound May 15, 2017 at 4:21 pm

                  I mean, the UK is plenty far removed from the crippling Socialistic economic nightmare of the 1970s to where being a classical Lefty isn’t as poisonous as it was back then, but Labour is still run by an IRA (and increasingly ISIS) apologist who is also Anti-Trident, anti-Immigrant Cap, and all over the damn place on Brexit. I’m half expecting him to try to propose colonialism reparations to non-white Brits at the rate he’s going.


                  R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

  • shamlet May 15, 2017 at 7:23 am

    NJ-11: Yeesh, this is dumb: Frelinghuysen sent a letter to a woman’s employer calling her out for being part of a liberal activist group, which led to her having to resign. If the DCCC is worth its salt they should be on the phone with this woman today. http://www.wnyc.org/story/frelinghuysen-targets-activsts-letter-boss/


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Son_of_the_South May 15, 2017 at 7:30 am

      Wow. that’s just plain stupid.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • shamlet May 15, 2017 at 8:12 am

        Yeah, really impossible to overstate how dumb this was. He needs to hope and pray this Avelenda woman doesn’t want to run against him now, because “my congressman got me fired” is the kind of thing that turns a two-bit Some Dude into a top-tier challenger overnight.


        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Son_of_the_South May 15, 2017 at 8:27 am

          Also, who the hell does this with a letter? What year is this? 1845? If you want to complain, call the employer on a personal line (not that this is ok behavior, but at least don’t get caught).


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • Ryan_in_SEPA May 15, 2017 at 9:01 am

            He deserves a primary for such stupidity.


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • Republican Michigander May 15, 2017 at 9:39 am

      That there is what I absolutely despise more than anything else from SJW’s – going out to get people fired over a disagreement. I don’t like it on the right either. I hope he get primaried.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA May 15, 2017 at 9:58 am

        Absolutely. I don’t have a problem with a political appointee or a public employee who uses their position to further political goals being ran out, but anyone who goes after private sector employees should be nowhere near power.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • Izengabe May 15, 2017 at 10:21 am

      To me this is another example of how things can so easily get blown out of proportion. On a fundraising letter, Frelinghuysen put what he probably thought was a funny little note and the banker got it sent it to legal and it turned into a major issue. Getting this person fired or in trouble was probably the last thing he thought would happen.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Left Coast Libertarian May 15, 2017 at 11:25 am

        Then he’s a fool. When a congressman says something, even in a private letter, people act on it. Ignorance is no excuse. He basically told them there was a traitor in their midst. This is something the left does and we’re a bunch of hypocrites if we do the same thing. Frelinghuysen needs to give a public apology and make amends for this.

      • Boehnerwasright May 15, 2017 at 12:46 pm

        I’m certain republicans would have found nothing amusing about a tea party activist having to resign over his opposition for a dem congressman. Punishing people for their (legal) political activity by attacking their privat sector job is never okay and every republican should denounce such a behaviour.

        I fail to see how anyone can find this note funny.

        • zbigreddogz May 15, 2017 at 1:57 pm

          The left does it all day long.

          I’m not saying it’s right. I’d not do it either. I think it says bad things about where we are as a country.

          At the same time, I don’t see why this is worth hyperventilating about. It was a self-wound for sure, but frankly, so long as there are Brenan Eich’s, there will be people who want to do the opposite.

        • Izengabe May 15, 2017 at 2:46 pm

          @BOEHNERWASRIGHT I agree. I just dont think Frelinghuysen intent was for this to go down the way it did. If you are intending to threaten someone’s job and punish them for engaging in political activity you generally dont do it via a handwritten footnote to a fundraising solicitation! I think Frelinghuysen intend was to say one of the people we are talking about works for you so HA, HA you better chip in a few extra bucks to this fundraising pitch and not go fire this person! To me this looks like a poor attempt at humor/ribbing in a fundraising solicitation that clearly went awry.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • pstchrisp May 15, 2017 at 3:32 pm

            Agreed. And the headlines that he “Outed” her are kind of ridiculous since she was posting using her real name and place of employment on Facebook. He didn’t have to snoop around to find out who she was, nor would anyone with whom she worked. That’s why it was likely just an ill-advised note.
            But my favorite line comes from the WNYC article linked from the original:
            “NJ 11th for Change formed in the weeks after the election, when residents of mostly liberal Montclair realized they had been moved into Frelinghuysen’s district.”
            Real political savants, those ones. They realized they were moved into his district 5 years after redistricting, after he’d be representing them for 4 years, and after the third time he’d been on their ballot.

            • rdelbov May 15, 2017 at 4:07 pm

              I am for freedom of speech but I guess its a bit generational. I always keep my politics low key when I worked for a corporation. My loyalty to my employer might I did go upfront with my political views. I could have picketed Congressman Harold Ford Sr over this or that and held signs protesting his appearances. I did want to embarrass my boss. So while it is clear that the Congressman did not want this gal fired letting an employer know that he has rogue employee IMO is okay.

              I might add IMO an employee represents that employer out in the public sphere. If this gal feels compelled to get arrested by sitting in at the Congressman’s office I be less then pleased with that as an employer. I might add that in a work force environment one can be uncomfortable working with someone who too fervent in their views.

    • Boehnerwasright May 15, 2017 at 12:43 pm

      I have the feeling some house republican members feel invulnerable after 6 years in the majority. Reminds me of some house dems in 2010.He is unlikely to loose his seat even in a dem wave year, but even forcing him and the NRCC to spent resources in NJ-11 would be a win for dems.

  • shamlet May 15, 2017 at 7:26 am

    AL-Sen: Brooks is holding 4 press conferences across the state today; he’s in. This is good – it probably means we’re spared from having Roy Moore in the runoff. Insiders also think State Sen. Del Marsh (R) is going to enter in the next couple days. http://whnt.com/2017/05/14/alabamas-u-s-senate-candidate-field-will-be-set-this-week-race-expected-to-heat-up-quickly/


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • TennesseeMike May 15, 2017 at 1:31 pm

      No surprise. How often do you get to run for the US Senate without having to give up your US House seat unless you win? Many politicians never have this chance.


      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

  • Upstater22 May 15, 2017 at 7:37 am

    Lord Ashcroft has published his own seat-by-seat prediction for the UK election. It looks like the model is based less on poll results and more on the underlying attitudes of the constituency – Brexit stance (Enthusiast, Accepter, Resister), PM preference, economic outlook, etc. He is currently predicting 406-415 Conservative seats, which lines up with electoralcalculus.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/05/election-2017-ashcroft-model/


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • Son_of_the_South May 15, 2017 at 8:00 am

      I think that’s a tad optimistic (I sound like you, lol), but it’s sure exciting.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Upstater22 May 15, 2017 at 8:56 am

        I look at some of these seats, and I just don’t get it. You look at a seat like Derbyshire North East. It’s pretty high up the list of seats likely to flip, but if you look at the local elections, Labour still won a slight majority. Yes, local elections are a different beast and having Corbyn essentially on the ballot changes things, but some of these seats are really tough ones. I’m wondering if having such a large, unprecedented gap that these models might not be factoring in a sort of diminishing return for Conservatives. Honestly, I think 385 seats for the Tories is an excellent night. Expectations in the 415 range, especially with uncertainty in Wales and Scotland, are improbable and may be an overreaction to the 2015 misses. I guess we’ll see in 3 weeks.


        Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

        • Red Oaks May 15, 2017 at 9:28 am

          Interestingly 385 seats is still a ways below what Labour won in in 2001 when they outpolled the Tories by 9%. I guess the overall seat/vote distribution is still pretty favorable to Labour.


          MI-03 Castle voter who now says Give Trump a chance

  • edtorres04 May 15, 2017 at 7:41 am

    MO Senate: Wagner planning July announcement with private polling having her ahead.

    Also good news for D’s on House recruiting:

    https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/652892?unlock=VHJNLLGOT7UE5XCR

    • rdelbov May 15, 2017 at 8:02 am

      If the Ds can recruit now when can they? On the flip the GOP knows they need to be preparing to defend seats.

      • Son_of_the_South May 15, 2017 at 8:24 am

        Well, sure, but it’s still the biggest thing you can screw up, and so far they’re not screwing it up overall.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • rdelbov May 15, 2017 at 8:47 am

          Of course with Citizen’s United candidate recruitment is not as critical as it used to. Clearly in 2018 Pelosi will be able to spend directly or have affiliated groups will spend over 400 million in uncoordinated or coordinated resources. Look at VA10-total D and for that matter R spending was 10 million for each candidate. Ditto for the other top 30 or so races of 2016. Look at GA6–you don’t need a candidate but if you plug in 20 million dollars the race will be competitive. Pelosi and the Ds can pick 30 or 40 races to spend the big bucks. Ditto for the GOP. In FL18 if you spend 10 million the race will be no worse then 55-45. You can actually plug in just about anybody as long as they do not have massive negatives.

          • cer May 15, 2017 at 9:37 am

            The Dems will also have a few seats that they will need be on defense as well…

    • prsteve11 May 15, 2017 at 12:22 pm

      Encouraging news on Wagner and MO. Hope we can get some solid candidates for IN, MT and ND.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • TennesseeMike May 15, 2017 at 1:34 pm

        Yes, great news on soon-to-be Senator-elect Wagner. She will make a good senator.
        In IN Luke Messer looks to be all but in and Todd Rokita could enter too. At least one should run and both are solid candidates.


        TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

  • edtorres04 May 15, 2017 at 7:50 am

    Incredibly detailed article on the senate procedure of tax reform: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-gop-prepare-for-tax-code-bonfire/article/2622938

    Pat Toomey believes the system can be gamed to make the tax cuts permanent.

  • SlippingJimmy May 15, 2017 at 8:25 am

    Any news on the election in NRW?


    Republican, TX-22. Fiscal conservative, pro-gun/5-month ban social moderate.

    • rdelbov May 15, 2017 at 8:32 am

      The last report was that CDU/NDP could be at 100/199 seats. I guess there will be a checking of numbers but GERGOP is hopeful that this will hold. Big CDU win.

      • Son_of_the_South May 15, 2017 at 8:39 am

        lol I think you mean FDP unless a bunch of Canadians moved to Germany.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • GerGOP May 15, 2017 at 11:50 am

      CDU and FDP technically have a majority, they just need to form a stable coalition. A one seat majority ain’t nothing to be comfortable with and both Laschet and Lindner talked about their differences today and that they’ll need to hammer them out and Lindner accused Laschet of conducting an “anti-FDP” election campaign in the last two weeks while also saying that he sees it as “competition.”

      In the end, though, I’m pretty sure they WILL form a coalition. They can’t afford not to.

      The CDU once again proved that their turnout system is great this years, attracting 440k non-voters.

      The SPD ran into the problem of Kraft’s popularity going downwhill as people realized how much she sucked and still decided to stick with the strategy. And they definitely need to put out Schulz more and he needs to talk issues and not generalities. SPD already said that they’ll kick of their September campaign today and will release a series of issues based speeches et al in the coming weeks.

      We’ll see … it’s a great victory for the CDU. The SPD has reigned in NRW since 1966 with only a five years CDU intermezzo. Losing yesterday was a serious blow.

  • edtorres04 May 15, 2017 at 8:27 am

    Mt At Large:

    Missoulian endorses Gianforte: http://missoulian.com/opinion/editorial/missoulian-editorial-our-endorsement-in-the-special-election-with-some/article_4624d844-77b5-5239-a7c5-82629063e0c9.html

    Billings Gazette endorses Gianforte: http://billingsgazette.com/news/opinion/gazette-opinion-in-the-race-for-congress-it-s-gianforte/article_8388bce1-4658-5ebc-8341-46a167948524.html

    The Billings Gazette previously endorsed Tester, Clinton, Bullock, etc.

    Here is a Politico article that believes that a hard left candidate on economics like Quist can win in Montana: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/05/13/montana-special-election-rob-quist-democrat-215128

    • Son_of_the_South May 15, 2017 at 8:29 am

      If I recall, most of the state’s largest newspapers were at one time owned by a mining conglomerate and therefore leaned right.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Manhatlibertarian May 15, 2017 at 2:16 pm

      Yeah I think it is telling that the Billings Gazette, which often endorses Dems, endorsed Gianforte with some reservations, but found Quist during their interview with him to be not capable of laying out a comprehensive platform for what he wants. Also they mentioned his apparent “ducking” of property taxes that “most of us have to pay”, an issue that has dogged him during the campaign.

      So I think the banjo playing populist image will get him $ from affluent blue state liberals who want to sink GOP candidates in the special elections, Bernie will campaign for him, and the election will be decided by single digits, but it is not enough to put Quist over the top.

    • Upstater22 May 15, 2017 at 9:04 am

      29% African American? Is that accurate?


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • dforston May 15, 2017 at 9:06 am

        No.

        • WingNightAlone May 15, 2017 at 9:23 am

          Wikipedia has the seat being 71% white and ~13% each black and Hispanic. I assume black turnout will be slightly lower than white but on much higher than Hispanic, so saying 20% is still highballing it. That puts Handel in the lead. Yeah, yeah, unskewing and everything, but the electorate will not be 29% black.


          24. Saint John-Rothesay. Consultant.

          • cer May 15, 2017 at 9:39 am

            I think Handel will win that seat. That Gravis poll is a joke.

          • Manhatlibertarian May 15, 2017 at 1:53 pm

            Yeah the poll shows the election to be close, which I think is the case, but 29% Black is just way off. I think in the 2010 census the district was 13% Black and there may have been some Black movement into the district since then but not anywhere near that extent. True the poll only has 7% Hispanic when the district population is at least 13% Hispanic, probably a little more, but many Hispanics are not citizens, so the 7% is probably not that unreasonable a number. Reminds me of some national polls in 2016 that showed whites only making up 65%-67% of the electorate when in reality it turned out to be around 71% according to exit polls.

    • andyroo312 May 15, 2017 at 11:23 am

      Gravis polls are useless. That said, I still think Ossoff wins by about half a percentage point.


      MA-7

    • prsteve11 May 15, 2017 at 12:25 pm

      Considering how favorable the internals of this poll are for Ossoff, I think he’s still going to struggle to win.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • Ryan_in_SEPA May 15, 2017 at 9:07 am

    The Communists have taken over Labour:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/jeremy-corbyn-praises-new-election-chief-blamed-west-rise-isil/


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • rdelbov May 15, 2017 at 9:20 am

    Apparently Miss USA agrees with VA LG Northam that healthcare is a privilege.

    http://nypost.com/2017/05/15/scientist-wins-miss-usa-slammed-for-conservative-comments/

    ouch to the response. Certainly as a merciful country no emergency care is refused. Yet getting health insurance has to be earned.

    • dforston May 15, 2017 at 9:23 am

      Wrong answer. It’s neither a right nor a privilege. If you’re a working age adult, it’s your responsibility to take care of yourself. American society has an agreement that we do take care of the elderly, the poor and the disabled. But we expect people to to provide for themselves.

    • BillW May 15, 2017 at 9:46 am

      This current discussion of rights is rather tiresome.
      There is certainly nothing in the Constitution, as amended, that would suggest a right to health care. The only hint is the ‘general welfare’ clause, which gives Congress the authority (but not the obligation) to pass laws that impact the well-being of citizens. That doesn’t mean that anything Congress chooses to provide or guarantee under the general welfare clause magically turns into a right. US senior citizens don’t have a right to Social Security or a right to Medicare.
      We have chosen as a people (through the actions of Congress and the President) to provide a social safety net, which has included provision of health care for seniors and for certain poor people. Through the ACA, Congress attempted to extend that safety net to include all poor people – and the Supreme Court struck down that provision. The social safety net also includes things like the old AFDC, the current TANF and SNAP programs, and the federal unemployment compensation system. NONE of those elements represent a ‘right’ that US citizens enjoy – and can force governments to provide. Congress could decide to abolish all of them tomorrow and our rights would be unaffected.
      So the battle is really about what we the people choose to do going forward. It is not about rights.


      57, M, R, OH-5

      • HS May 15, 2017 at 10:02 am

        And if it were a “right”, we would go bankrupt trying to enforce it.

      • roguemapper May 15, 2017 at 10:08 am

        Well, there is the 9th Amendment: “The enumeration in the Constitution of certain rights shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.” It’s perfectly legitimate for people to think that a right exists that is not enumerated in the Constitution. Those people would obviously say that it should also be enumerated in the Constitution. To be clear, I don’t think that people have a right to universal health care but I can understand why many would have that view. I just think that universal health care is quite clearly the smartest policy for society as a whole from a cost-benefit standpoint. I also think that it’s morally right but that’s irrelevant since I can understand why many would think otherwise.


        Dem NC-11

        • BillW May 15, 2017 at 10:15 am

          …and since that amendment was written in about 1787 and talks about rights ‘retained by the people’, it refers to any rights already enjoyed by the people as of the writing of the Constitution (which the framers perhaps failed to enumerate). If you can find something written 230 years ago that refers to a right to health care in the US, I would be persuaded to consider your point.


          57, M, R, OH-5

          • roguemapper May 15, 2017 at 10:30 am

            You don’t need to tell me this and I already said that I don’t think universal health care is a right. So since we already agree about that I’m not trying to persuade you of anything. I assume though that you already know what the “living constitution” concept is so you don’t need me to explain it. If someone does agree with that concept then it’s perfectly legitimate for them to think that health care is a right. And if someone doesn’t agree with that concept it’s still perfectly legitimate for them to think that health care should be a right. As I said above, it’s irrelevant to my view on the subject because in my view universal health care is quite clearly the most economically sound policy for society as a whole. And, regardless of all this talk about rights, a 60%+ majority of voters in polls support universal health care. So, whatever the reason for it, the lesson of history is that when a majority of voters support a policy it will eventually become the policy one way or another.


            Dem NC-11

            • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 10:50 am

              60% of people favor universal health coverage when not presented with methods to pay for it, which is why it collapsed in freaking Vermont. Tell Americans they’re going to have to pay an extra 10-15% in payroll taxes and see what level of support they’re willing to offer. And I’m sure the medical community wouldn’t organize effectively over forcing their industry to take massive losses by using Medicare (or even worse, Medicaid) reimbursement rates for all health coverage. That’s a lot of angry doctors and nurses who aren’t going to take an attempt to force them into European levels of compensation lightly.


              R/NC-4.

              • roguemapper May 15, 2017 at 10:54 am

                An individual state, especially one as small as Vermont, cannot implement cost-effective universal health care on its own because it would still need to operate within the ridiculously inflated and inefficient US healthcare system as a whole. So, the collapse in freaking Vermont proves nothing other than that a small individual state cannot go it alone in that regard. It was misguided for them to even try, not least because the first sentence of your reply to me was an entirely predictable and inevitable result.


                Dem NC-11

                • Mayor Perk May 15, 2017 at 11:00 am

                  60%+ approval of single payer is much more complicated than you suggest. Polls vary widely on the subject depending on how the question is framed.


                  30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

                • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 11:07 am

                  And the U.S. government is going to take a meat cleaver to that inefficiency? If the American system is ridiculously inflated and inefficient (it is) then someone is benefiting from that inefficiency. And it really isn’t insurers-it’s hospitals, pharma, but mostly doctors/nurses. So if you’re going to cut costs you’re going to have to go after some of the most politically popular groups in America. I can picture the sad ads about the small rural hospital having to close because they aren’t a viable entity under Medicare reimbursement rates. Not to mention the enormous level of money the AMA would throw against single payer, because cost controls would force them into European levels of compensation.


                  R/NC-4.

                • indocon May 15, 2017 at 11:41 am

                  RM, buddy we are not having single payer system in US period, you know why, people in UES and UWS are not standing in same lines as those in Bronx.

                  • roguemapper May 15, 2017 at 11:52 am

                    For once I partly agree with you. Race is in fact the reason why we don’t have single payer. But you’re wrong that we won’t have it eventually. At the latest we’ll have single payer (or an equivalent system) whenever that becomes the only way to sustain Medicare.


                    Dem NC-11

          • rdelbov May 15, 2017 at 10:34 am

            I am not seeing healthcare protesters clinging to their 9th amendment rights when this topic comes up. Pure and simple it is people who feel that everything is an entitlement. Healthcare, money, jobs, property, food or whatever.

            The national healthcare system did not exist in 1787 and I don’t recall this matter coming up in the Federalist papers. I have no problem with America providing a safety net for those who are unable to provide for themselves but calling it a right is a step too far.

            I might add that IMO there are three justices on the high court who likely vote to establish the “right to healthcare”. Not a doubt in my mind about that.

      • Upstater22 May 15, 2017 at 10:12 am

        Health care is a limited resource. Like every other limited resource on the planet, it is not a right by any stretch of the imagination. Basic common sense.


        Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

        • bluewahoo May 15, 2017 at 11:27 am

          Just like legal counsel

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy May 15, 2017 at 3:17 pm

        To bring this far away from policy, there’s a great book by Mary Ann Glendon about how “Rights Talk” has seriously degraded the level of public discourse in the United States. It’s a great book, but it’s also fairly long, so you can get a quick summary here. http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/whats-wrong-with-rights/

        Different people will always have different preferred configurations of the state’s distribution of scarce public goods, but we have a country where everyone views their own preferred configuration as some fundamental right under natural law, which truly leads to dreadful polarization and political dysfunction. A slight increase in tax rates is thus some horrible, unjust violation of taxpayer rights and a slight decrease in social welfare outlays is also some horrible, unjust violation of the right to xxx.

        As far as I can tell, this phenomenon is pretty unique to the US, probably because the courts here have uniquely poisoned public discourse. Labour is railing against Theresa May’s handling of the NHS, but it doesn’t look to me like they’re framing it with “rights talk”.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • shamlet May 15, 2017 at 12:46 pm

      Ok, this whole discussion is way too far into policy. Time to move on.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • dforston May 15, 2017 at 9:38 am

    Mo Brooks is in for AL Senate per twitter.

  • segmentation_fault May 15, 2017 at 9:49 am

    France

    President Macron named a moderate Republican, Édouard Philippe, as prime minister.

    It’s a somewhat risky move. But if it has the intended effect it will destroy the Republicans in the upcoming legislative elections.


    En Marche!

    • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 10:44 am

      Is Philippe joining En Marche?


      R/NC-4.

      • segmentation_fault May 15, 2017 at 10:58 am

        Les Republicains have said any member of their party who joins Macron will be expelled, as have the Socialists. So I assume this counts as joining Macron.


        En Marche!

    • Manhatlibertarian May 15, 2017 at 1:35 pm

      How does Macron naming Republicain Philippe as PM “destroy” the party’s chances in the June National Assembly elections against En Marche. Is Philippe that influential with Republicain voters? Also having a Republicain PM may turn off some left wing voters and cause them to vote for Melenchon’s party or not vote at all as opposed to voting for En Marche candidates

      • roguemapper May 15, 2017 at 1:43 pm

        Isn’t the exclamation point part of the official name for En Marche!?


        Dem NC-11

        • shamlet May 15, 2017 at 1:49 pm

          Because they wanted to piggyback on the Jeb! vibe?


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

          • segmentation_fault May 15, 2017 at 1:55 pm

            Jeb! and Macron agree that there should be taco trucks on every corner.


            En Marche!

      • segmentation_fault May 15, 2017 at 1:54 pm

        The thinking is that Philippe is going to get a bunch of LR legislators in the Juppé wing to jump ship and run with En Marche, as two dozen Socialists have already done.


        En Marche!

    • Manhatlibertarian May 15, 2017 at 1:13 pm

      I think if Trump appoints someone as FBI Director who is considered to be someone with integrity as opposed to a crony it will help Repub candidates like Handel in the special elections. Right now the firing of Comey puts them in an awkward position of saying whether or not they support the firing. If someone with integrity, as opposed to a Trump crony, is appointed GOP candidates can then say the “Russia probe” is not being impeded by the Comey firing. Since polling shows the Ga 6 race to be close this could be the deciding factor. So we shall see who he appoints.

      • TexasR May 15, 2017 at 1:33 pm

        Yeah, if we want to lose the House next year, the Donald appointing a hack who will say “nothing to see here” and shut down the Russia probe is a great way to guarantee it.


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        #KeepFreeTradeGreat

  • Mayor Perk May 15, 2017 at 9:58 am

    Hi-Gov: St. Rep. Bob McDermott (R) has officially entered the race. I guess it’s good the HI GOP actually found an officeholder left in HI.But McDermott is a vocal social conservative so probably not the best fit. He’s also part of the losing-to-a-dead-person group after losing HI-02 to the late Rep. Patsy Mink (D-HI) in 2002.

    http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/35419621/mcdermott-touts-leadership-officialy-enters-2018-race-for-governor


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • HS May 15, 2017 at 10:06 am

      Unfortunately no Republican can win there unless Dems screw up. Which might happen eventually, when they get more arrogant and crazy in the legislature. But it will probably not happen in 2018.

      • Izengabe May 15, 2017 at 12:38 pm

        GOP could have won if Abercrombie could have survived the Dem primary.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • HS May 15, 2017 at 6:10 pm

          Yeah, but he didn’t. My point was prospective 😉

  • Left Coast Libertarian May 15, 2017 at 10:11 am

    Supreme Court leaves in place a ruling that struck down N.C.’s voter ID law

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/15/supreme-court-leaves-in-place-a-ruling-that-struck-down-ncs-voter-id-law-238392

    If the state isn’t pressing this case, the Supreme Court shouldn’t take it up. The Supreme Court is about deciding cases, not making law.

    • segmentation_fault May 15, 2017 at 10:23 am

      The legislature was pressing the case but the Gov/AG weren’t.


      En Marche!

      • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 10:53 am

        I’m sure you’d be fine with Donald Trump using this exact tactic to gut Obama’s regulatory agenda.


        R/NC-4.

        • Left Coast Libertarian May 15, 2017 at 11:28 am

          I think it’s morally wrong that the North Carolina AG has chosen not to defend North Carolina law. But he can legally do so and the Supreme Court is a legal body, not a moral one.

          • segmentation_fault May 15, 2017 at 11:36 am

            The real problem here is that NC has an executive and legislative branch that are at each other’s throats. It’s a recipe for government dysfunction.


            En Marche!

          • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 11:37 am

            He actually doesn’t have that right under state law.


            R/NC-4.

            • segmentation_fault May 15, 2017 at 11:42 am

              Why did CJOTUS not recognize the legislature’s standing to appeal then?


              En Marche!

              • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 11:54 am

                SCOTUS doesn’t resolve questions of state law, and Stein/Cooper have asserted that the state law conferring standing on the General Assembly and directing that the AG’s office follow their lead in constitutional litigation is unconstitutional under the N.C. Constitution and/or inapplicable. I imagine that’s why they don’t want to wade into this.


                R/NC-4.

    • rdelbov May 15, 2017 at 10:25 am

      To an extent the courts have already signaled that VA voter ID, which has slightly different rules, is the way for states to go. I hate to see them punt but IMO it is in the weeds.

  • Upstater22 May 15, 2017 at 10:53 am

    YouGov has provided a regional breakdown of voting intentions ahead of next months general election. Below I have listed the region, the 2015 margin between Labour and Conservative, and the 2017 poll number margin between the two:

    Northeast: 2015 Lab +22, 2017 Lab +2
    Northwest: 2015 Lab +13, 2017 TIED
    Yorkshire & Humber: 2015 Lab +7, 2017 Con +5
    East Midlands: 2015 Con +12, 2017 Con +26
    West Midlands: 2015 Con +9, 2017 Con +23
    East: 2015 Con +27, 2017 Con +37
    London: 2015 Lab +9, 2017 Lab +5
    Southeast: 2015 Con +33, 2017 Con +37
    Southwest: 2015 Con +29, 2017 Con +30
    Wales: 2015 Lab +10, 2017 Con +7
    Scotland: 2015 Lab +9, 2017 Con +10

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/

    I think you see some of the diminishing returns I mentioned earlier. Going from +27 to +37 in the East will net one Labour seat while the apparent Labour London firewall will limit the damage there.


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • Son_of_the_South May 15, 2017 at 1:51 pm

      By my math those numbers still have May and Co. knocking on the door of 400 seats. You get roughly 30 seats in the North, 15 in the Midlands, 15 in Wales and Scotland, and 10 in the South and London. Those are guessimates, but they get you to 400.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Left Coast Libertarian May 15, 2017 at 11:35 am

    508 ineligible North Carolina voters cast ballots in 2016
    http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article145971264.html

    This pretty much sums up the voter fraud debate. No matter how much the left denies it there are people illegally casting ballots. Yes, it’s a pretty insignificant number, unless, of course, you lose by a few votes. No, Voter ID wouldn’t prevent most of these. In fact, most of the people casting illegal ballots were wrongly registered to vote. One disturbing thing is the 102 non-citizens voting. North Carolina doesn’t give driver’s licenses to undocumented aliens the way California does. I’m guessing California has a lot more than 102 non-citizens voting, most of whom think it’s legal to do so. Contrary to what Donald Trump thinks there’s no evidence the number is significant and changed any election. Of course, any illegal votes shouldn’t be prevented.

    • krazen1211 May 15, 2017 at 11:37 am

      The logical takeaway from this is that NC legislature should pass many smaller bills rather than one big bill. The major provisions here exist in other states.

      Beyond that, executive nullification is generally BS…and it’s a 2 sided coin. Just wait until Jeff Sessions tries it.

    • Manhatlibertarian May 15, 2017 at 12:57 pm

      Yes I agree that the Trump’s claim of 3 million illegal immigrants voting is widely exaggerated but there is limited voter fraud that could impact close elections; this NC study showed there were 508 people who shouldn’t have voted. There were probably other instances of fraudulent voting the study didn’t find; the article also indicates there were cases of fraudulent absentee voting in Bladen County that were not included in the study because files had been sent to prosecutors. IMO fraudulent voting is not so much using false ID in person but involves absentee voting and persons not eligible to vote casting votes (Mainly non citizens and felons as this study also found). Why are Dems so reluctant to admit this? Look at the registration of those the NC study found cast fraudulent ballots: 64% registered Dems vs. 18% registered Repubs. That says it all; Dems know they benefit from these fraudulent votes. That’s why the NC Dem cavalier response was well convicted felons who are on probation or parole should be allowed to vote anyway. One poster here (I think it was HS) pointed out that a Minn study found over 800 felons improperly cast votes in the 2008 senate election that Franken won. Franken only won by 312 votes after a recount and convicted felons normally vote heavily Dem, so if they hadn’t voted Repub Coleman may well have won. So yes in the vast a majority of elections voter fraud is not significant enough to affect the outcome but in close elections it can be a significant factor.

  • krazen1211 May 15, 2017 at 11:43 am

    Az-02 poll. Grain of salt.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/863876061829976064

    AZ gaining a district will help us so much here….if we can ditch those white Tucson precincts

    • rdelbov May 15, 2017 at 12:16 pm

      Yes I take this poll with a big grain of salt. An extra seat in AZ could help but just undoing the Mathismander will be a help. Clear PIMA county could have a CD around Tucson that would be heavily D. That seat would also minority majority. Not majority hispanic or AA but minority majority. If you stick Santa Cruz county in there?

      AZ1 and AZ2 can be drawn in all sorts of ways. Stay tuned.

  • James May 15, 2017 at 2:04 pm

    I’m hearing that Corey Stewart will be dropping out of VA-Gov today. Makes that race marginally easier I suppose


    Let's Make America Greater

    • LtNOWIS May 15, 2017 at 3:14 pm

      He’ll make an announcement at 7 PM Eastern.

      http://www.wusa9.com/mb/news/local/virginia/sources-corey-stewart-thinking-of-exiting-race-for-governor-/439821583


      28, VA-11

    • bluewahoo May 15, 2017 at 7:23 pm

      This FB stream of the announcement is the most bizarre VA political event I have ever watched.

      After the most monotonous introduction that lasted about 20 min, Corey took the stage.

      He went through a laundry list of things he “denounces”, most of which were familiar.

      I think the “announcement” was he added to his usual; talking points that Northam and Periello need to acknowledge the racist history of the Democratic Party, and that they should demand the resignation of Wes Bellamny, a Charlottesville City Council member who tweeted some very inappropriate things about women, gay people and white people a few years back.

      • Izengabe May 15, 2017 at 7:49 pm

        Of note NOT included in the laundry list of things Corey Stewart denounced was racist Richard Spencer or his neo-KKK torch lit protest in Charlottesville, VA


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • bluewahoo May 15, 2017 at 8:44 pm

          Oh yes.

          It’s worth mentioning that Jason Kessler, a blogger who began a recall effort against Bellamy but stopped after he punched someone while collecting signatures, joined Spencer at that rally. Stewart’s specific mention of Bellamy and not the rally makes me 100% convinced he’s totally fine with this vile event, and it’s organizers.

      • bluewahoo May 15, 2017 at 8:47 pm

        It was painfully obvious during the “announcement” that he was reading off cue cards, because he his outrage rant was interrupted once or twice by an unknown source. This tweet backs up my suspicion.

        https://twitter.com/NewtTrump/status/864265219849297920

        Virginia’s embarrassment doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.

  • jncca May 15, 2017 at 3:41 pm

    http://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-coalition-talks-failed-says-official-edith-schippers-mark-rutte/

    Dutch coalition talks for a liberal + conservative + green “alternative grand coalition” have failed. PM Rutte will now have to figure out an alternative combination that does not involve the GreenLeft, which refused to agree to any cap on immigration.

    Choices are very limited: assuming Labour does not re-up after being devastated this election, it leaves only three options:

    1) Geert Wilders

    2) 2 small parties in combination, leading to an unstable 5-party coalition (for example, the pensioners’ 50Plus along with the Christian right)

    3) New Elections


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 3:44 pm

      VVD+CDA+D66+CU (the non-theocratic Christian party) would be a majority coalition, if only by one vote.


      R/NC-4.

      • Upstater22 May 15, 2017 at 6:31 pm

        Yes, this has long been the backup plan. Makes more sense from an ideological perspective, but I think there is some desire for a wide ranging left-right coalition.


        Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • jncca May 15, 2017 at 6:55 pm

        Oops, my math was off.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • Greyhound May 15, 2017 at 3:51 pm

      No real surprise there.


      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • The Emperor May 15, 2017 at 4:02 pm

      Any chance Wilders gets in the coalition?


      male/21/R/TX-22, CA-52/originally CA-45, KS-03
      Rubio Republican

      • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 4:36 pm

        Absolutely none. All of the major parties have ruled out going into coalition with him.


        R/NC-4.

  • Manhatlibertarian May 15, 2017 at 3:48 pm

    Monday NY tidbits:

    Former GOP NYC Mayoral Primary candidate Michel Faulkner, a Harlem Minister and former NY Jets player, has endorsed Upper East Side real estate developer Paul Massey for mayor. Massey in return has endorsed Faulkner for the GOP nomination for City Comptroller.

    Dem Suffolk DA Tom Spota announced he will not run for re-election this fall. Spota has been under investigation for an allegation he took part in a coverup involving the former Suffolk Police Chief, who was accused of assault.

    The Westchester Dem organization has endorsed State Senator George Latimer for CE against GOP incumbent Rob Astorino this fall. Latimer still faces a primary contest against County Legislator Ken Jenkins and David Spano, son of former Westchester CE Andrew Spano.

    The Syracuse Dem Organization has endorsed Common Councilor Joe Nicoletti for mayor (incumbent Stephanie Miner is term limited). He will likely face several Dem primary challengers. The GOP organization has settled on educator Laura Lavine for the post.

    New York State Court of Appeals Judge (Highest court in NY) Michael Garcia is on Trump’s short list for FBI Chief. He previously served as a prosecutor in the Manhattan US Attorney’s Office and as an Assistant Secretary in DHS under Pres Bush. He is considered to be a Republican. If he gets the position, Gov Cuomo will have to nominate a replacement on the court who must be approved by the State Senate.

    Upstate GOP State Senator Pam Helming has said she refused to cash a check for a stipend she was awarded for a legislative position she did not hold. Helming is one of seven state senators, both Dems and Repubs, who have been accused of accepting stipends for positions they did not actually hold in the State Senate. GOP State Senate Majority Leader Flanagan claims this is basically a paperwork type issue of what is submitted to the State Comptroller for payment and the stipends are legal under his interpretation of the law. We shall see.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

  • Greyhound May 15, 2017 at 4:00 pm

    The two main Reddit Anti-Trump boards are apparently at each other’s throats, to the point of accusations of subversion and false-flagging by Trump voters to “Sow seeds of chaos in the #Resistance”.
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/05/14/reddit-s-anti-trump-civil-war
    I feel like I should be posting the Monty Python People’s Front of Judea bit here.


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • Manhatlibertarian May 15, 2017 at 4:40 pm

      Yeah although this type of rhetoric can also occur on the right, for whatever reason these type of disputes seem more common on the left. The different factions seem to end up hating each other more than anyone else. I’ll leave it to psychologists to figure out why this occurs.

      • Greyhound May 15, 2017 at 4:53 pm

        Its mostly just anti-establishmentarianism. The side that believes in the fundamental injustice of society is more likely to have wildly different views on what should exist than the side that believes society as-is is mostly alright. Its like how Protestantism keep continuously splitting and splitting after the original Lutheran reformation, as the lack of respect for the established religious hierarchy meant that there was a far lower bar to further splitting after the initial one.


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

  • Mayor Perk May 15, 2017 at 4:10 pm

    AZ-01: State Sen. Steve Smith (R-Maricopa) announces Congressional bid against freshman Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D).

    http://www.pinalcentral.com/casa_grande_dispatch/area_news/smith-announces-cd-candidacy/article_622726ac-8dcc-59e7-bcd6-f10f021f475d.html


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • Greyhound May 15, 2017 at 4:38 pm

    Brexit is proving to be increasing popular, now supported in effect by 68-22 (or 45% support it and wanted it, 23% say they voted remain but the Gov should go through with it now, and 22% say the Gov should stop it).
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/two-thirds-voters-now-support-brexit/
    Probably why Tim Farron’s Liberals are floundering everywhere outside yuppie London.


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA May 15, 2017 at 5:15 pm

      It does not hurt that the EU is being a bunch of jerks about it.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

      • Greyhound May 15, 2017 at 6:23 pm

        Brexit is an existential threat to their position. Not just because of the implications of countries being allowed to leave the EU, but because they’re the first ones to call the EU’s bluff. The UK has become the metaphorical Batman to the EU’s Gotham mob. Seriously, this is playing out like a cliche movie where the scrappy underdog hero stands up to the corrupt powerful clique of villains.


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

      • w920us May 15, 2017 at 8:19 pm

        Seriously, Juncker has for all intents and purposes, laid out threats to the U.K.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • segmentation_fault May 15, 2017 at 6:59 pm

      That 23% is not “supporting it.” It’s an understanding that if they went against the referendum it would seriously undermine democracy.


      En Marche!

  • rdelbov May 15, 2017 at 4:39 pm

    Maricopa Arizona is actually in Pinal County–Smith represents alot of Pinal and Pima county in the state senate. You could be a great candidate–especially if he clears the field.

  • Mayor Perk May 15, 2017 at 4:45 pm

    NY-27/NY-LG: Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul will not run against Rep. Chris Collins (R) in 2018. She fully expects to be Gov. Cuomo’s running mate again in 2018.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/lt-gov-hochul-plans-cuomo-running-mate-2018-article-1.3165696


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 5:16 pm

    Trump revealed highly classified info about ISIS in a meeting with Russian officials.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-revealed-highly-classified-information-to-russian-foreign-minister-and-ambassador/2017/05/15/530c172a-3960-11e7-9e48-c4f199710b69_story.html?tid=sm_tw&utm_term=.a459d8172f25

    I seriously worry about his mental state.


    R/NC-4.

    • Boehnerwasright May 15, 2017 at 5:24 pm

      I really hope that this is not true and that Trump and his team have learned better Crisis-PR after the Comey firing. I think there was no collusion between Trump’s campaign and the russians, but oh boy is Trump doing everything to make more smoke around this topic.

      • MikeFL May 15, 2017 at 6:19 pm

        I wouldn’t be surprised if Flynn, Page, Stone, and their ilk end up getting caught in some form by the end of this cycle, but from the constant chaos going on, I’d find it extremely hard to believe that Trump had any role in “collusion”, barring these aides calling him “so smart,” “so talented,” and “so great” to get them into his confidence. Some on the Left are acting like Trump engineered this massive Russian conspiracy, but look at what he’s doing! He can barely go a week without sending the West Wing into crisis mode.


        26 | FL-3/-16 | FisCon

        • Boehnerwasright May 15, 2017 at 6:33 pm

          I totally agree with you, some persons around him may have had shady ties to Russia but everything more would be surprising to me. The whole russia hype feels a bit like the birther conspiracy on the right. A tiny bit more credibility for the russia story, but besides that both russia and birther are just something desperate people cling to because they cant deal with the reality of obama/trump being president.

    • Republican Michigander May 15, 2017 at 5:28 pm

      I’m not going to take the WaPo’s word for anything.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 5:36 pm

        Read between the lines of McMaster’s statement. He doesn’t deny the core of the story.


        R/NC-4.

        • roguemapper May 15, 2017 at 5:40 pm

          They really should keep such details off of the one-page bullet point list that the Donald receives for intelligence briefings. I don’t see how it adds anything that he needs to know in order to let the military and intelligence agencies do their jobs.


          Dem NC-11

          • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 5:46 pm

            Ideally, yeah. But what if he demands it and/or has to sign off on some sort of military operation?


            R/NC-4.

        • HS May 15, 2017 at 7:33 pm

          He just denied it in full.

          • Boehnerwasright May 15, 2017 at 7:45 pm

            That was not a full denial. McMaster in short said no method or sources were disclosed and no non-public military operation was discussed.

            But the WP-Story did not say that.The WP-Editor even said so in a interview (https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/864263710507978752)
            The following quote from the story also makes that quite clear:

            ”He did not reveal the specific intelligence-gathering method, but he described how the Islamic State was pursuing elements of a specific plot and how much harm such an attack could cause under varying circumstances. Most alarmingly, officials said, Trump revealed the city in the Islamic State’s territory where the U.S. intelligence partner detected the threat. […] The identification of the location was seen as particularly problematic, officials said, because Russia could use that detail to help identify the U.S. ally or intelligence capability involved. Officials said the capability could be useful for other purposes, possibly providing intelligence on Russia’s presence in Syria. Moscow would be keenly interested in identifying that source and perhaps disrupting it.”

            As long as i hear no denial for the quoted part this seems quite real and damaging to Trump and sadly also for Republican who did nothing wrong here.

            • HS May 15, 2017 at 8:01 pm

              I believe he specifically said the WP report was not correct. That sounds like a full denial to me. I think, if he meant to parse it, he failed and he may be in trouble.

              • Boehnerwasright May 15, 2017 at 8:08 pm

                McMasters said the story was false, but Trump and his team have said that about a lot of stories that turned out to be true. And saying a story is false without saying what is false about the story is really not a full denial.
                You can always find something minor in a story you can say is false to justify saying a story is wrong. Doesn’t mean the key point of a story is wrong.

                • HS May 15, 2017 at 8:18 pm

                  Once you say the report is false, that is it. I am not actually trying to argue with you here. My point is if he meant to parse it, he failed to do it. He better be telling the truth.

      • Boehnerwasright May 15, 2017 at 5:37 pm

        “The president and the foreign minister reviewed common threats from terrorist organizations to include threats to aviation,” said H.R. McMaster, the national security adviser, who participated in the meeting. “At no time were any intelligence sources or methods discussed and no military operations were disclosed that were not already known publicly.”

        That’s a quote from the article. This doesn’t seem like a total denial to me. The McMaster quote leaves room open that the russians could conclude from what Trump said who the sources was and McMaster doesn’t deny that classified information was shared by trump.
        Also McMaster only denies that a military operation was disclosed, he doesn’t say the same about an intelligence operations. Let’s see how this all develops but that selective denial by McMaster worries me.

        • GOPTarHeel May 15, 2017 at 5:51 pm

          Exactly


          R/NC-4.

          • Ryan_in_SEPA May 15, 2017 at 6:13 pm

            Don’t the Russians know all of our state secrets anyway?


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

          • Manhatlibertarian May 15, 2017 at 8:31 pm

            Well we can discuss whether or not the Russians may have been able to conclude who a source is based on what Trump said, but what I find interesting is that there were about 6 people in the room during the Lavrov meeting. I don’t know who they were but it is obvious someone leaked the info to the WaPo with the intent of damaging Trump. Who would it have been?

            • Boehnerwasright May 15, 2017 at 8:36 pm

              According to the story they spoke to CIA+NSA after the meeting to inform them of what Trump said. So possible circle of leakers is bigger than just these 6 people. Also the story seems to hint at transcripts, which some people outside the direct group in the WH could have seen.

            • roguemapper May 15, 2017 at 9:35 pm

              We could also discuss the fact that no one seems surprised that this would happen, regardless of whether it happened, and that no one seems to think the Donald has any credibility to answer the question, but rather that some of those around him might arguably have said credibility. Speaking of which, where’s Pence on all this? Isn’t he the go to guy for White House denials, or did the Comey episode finally put an end to all that?


              Dem NC-11

              • Son_of_the_South May 15, 2017 at 9:42 pm

                We could have a long discussion about that, but this isn’t a policy-oriented site or one devoted to the breakdown of public trust, so we won’t.


                23, R, DC-AL
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Ryan_in_SEPA May 15, 2017 at 6:13 pm

    http://www.politicspa.com/turzai-asks-gop-committee-members-for-support/83089/

    PA-Gov: Speaker Turzai asking for support. That noise you heard was State Senstor Wagner’s campaign dying.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • HS May 15, 2017 at 6:23 pm

      Is Turzai a stronger candidate? In general, I normally assume a leadership position makes things tougher for an executive race.

      • rdelbov May 15, 2017 at 8:43 pm

        I like the more ethnic name and the WPA roots.

        • Son_of_the_South May 15, 2017 at 8:55 pm

          State legistlative leaders rarely do well as statewide candidates. Thom Tillis is the execption, and that’s mostly down to NC being about as polarized as Bleeding Kansas.


          23, R, DC-AL
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • shamlet May 15, 2017 at 9:09 pm

            Every once in a while it works – of course there’s Rubio, and Tester and Gordon Smith are two other examples. But yeah, generally the skill set needed to become a legislative leader, which generally involves a lot of insider backslapping and ruthlessness, translates poorly to statewide campaigns.


            R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

            • TheWizardOf144 May 15, 2017 at 9:43 pm

              Yes, please nominate Turzai. The guy that will make me vote 3rd Party for my 3rd Gubernatorial election in a row.

  • Greyhound May 15, 2017 at 6:26 pm

    Sturgeon’s Scottish Independence plan continues to collapse around her:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/nicola-sturgeon-praised-extremely-good-report-savaging-plan2/


    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

  • indocon May 15, 2017 at 6:36 pm

    On the topic that was discussed here a few days back re states like GA:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/15/us/politics/black-democrats-governor-races-2018.html

    If AA candidates comes in GA with hard left positions on issues like taxes an crimes, expect our majorities to last there a long time, this sure is time when Dems could use someone like Roy Barnes or Zell Miller, but their types have ZERO chance of becoming their nominees in states where AA hold the veto on Dem nominee

    • Manhatlibertarian May 15, 2017 at 8:56 pm

      Yes the SJW wing of the Dems argues that it is mostly useless to try and lure back white working class voters who went for Trump and the key to victory is to increase turnout by minorities and young voters. If Ossoff loses I think you will hear that argument more strongly. Ossoff has tried to appeal to white voters with centrist sounding platitudes (although I suspect he is really quite liberal) but will he be able to increase minority turnout at the same time with that type of campaign and win? But then will Dem minority candidates running on leftist populist platforms be able to win statewide in a state like Georgia and Florida? Seems to me the Dems are in a bit of a quandry.

  • LtNOWIS May 15, 2017 at 7:25 pm

    VA-Gov: Corey Stewart just spoke at a Tea Party meeting via Facebook. His announcement was that he’s not dropping out.


    28, VA-11

    • Son_of_the_South May 15, 2017 at 8:11 pm

      Goddammit. examtly like Stewart to pull a stunt like to draw attention Ugh


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • MosheM May 15, 2017 at 8:28 pm

    https://twitter.com/Carrasquillo/status/864262056849092608

    WH comms staffers just put the TVs on super loud after we could hear yelling coming from room w/ Bannon, Spicer, Sanders


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • w920us May 15, 2017 at 9:18 pm

    Wow the leader of the AFD in Germany is a lesbian. The Velvet Mafia here in America must be wondering what’s up with the GLBTIFJXZEI community in Europe.

    Germany’s far-right AfD picks lesbian leader for election campaign
    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/04/24/germanys-far-right-afd-picks-lesbian-leader-for-election-campaign/


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • Son_of_the_South May 15, 2017 at 9:24 pm

      Well, I think that would require explaining to them that a non-zero percentage of Germany’s underclass is radicalized to want to kill gays.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Izengabe May 15, 2017 at 11:44 pm

      Actually this makes perfect sense. The biggest threat to the gay community in Europe comes from Muslim immigrants who come from countries in which homosexuality is punishable by death.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy May 16, 2017 at 1:44 am

    Hillary Clinton officially launches her “resistance group”; it’s named “Onward.”

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/15/politics/hillary-clinton-resistance-onward-together/index.html

    The name kind of sounds like a crappy rip-off of En Marche.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

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