Political Roundup for June 13th, 2017

Programming note: Virginia’s primary and Las Vegas City Council runnoff election are today. We will have a liveblog with all the results when the polls close tonight at 7pm ET. Check out our previews if you haven’t already.

President:

Trump: Apparently it wasn’t the Russians who unleashed an army of social media bots to boost Trump’s 2016 candidacy on Twitter, Facebook and other social media platforms. It was billionaire Robert Mercer who spearheaded the efforts weaponize social media by using fake accounts to spread stories and narratives to influence real people.

Merkley: According to a CNN profile Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) is considering a run for President in 2020. Merkley was the only US Senator to endorse fellow Senator Bernie Sanders in 2016.

Governor:

AZ-Gov: Failed 2014 Democrat nominee for State Superintendent of Public Instruction David Garcia is out with an internal PPP poll showing him leading Gov. Doug Ducey (R) 44% to 42%. His paid for internal poll also conveniently shows Garcia beating leading state Sen. Steve Farley by a 53% to 11% margin in the Democrat primary and Duecy beating Farley by a 42% to 40% margin. Take this internal poll with a Grand Canyon sized grain of salt.

NE-Gov: State Sen. Bob Krist (RINO) says he may skip challenging Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) in the GOP primary and instead run against him as an independent in 2018.

SC-Gov: Lt. Gov Kevin Bryant (R) is considering a primary challenge to Gov. Henry McMaster (R). Bryant was a state senator who after a series of events became Lt. Governor when Lt. Gov. McMaster ascended to the Governorship after President Trump picked Nikki Haley to become US Ambassador to the UN.

TN-Gov: Republican candidate Randy Boyd is kicking off his gubernatorial campaign by selling Randy Boyd for Governor fidget spinners for $5 on his campaign website. No word yet if fellow GOP candidate Bill Lee or State Sen. Mae Beavers will offering fidget spinners of their own. And yes if you are wondering I really want one of these for my political memorabilia collection!

Senate:

AL-Sen: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) has endorsed fellow Rep. Mo Brooks (R) for Senate. Brooks is facing appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) and a host of other candidates in the August 15th Republican primary.

House:

GA-6: Ad spending in Georgia’s special congressional election approaches $40 million mark! The amount of money being spent on this House race is absolutely insane! To put this in perspective Jeb Bush’s 2016 Presidential campaign spent $34.7 million in hard dollars.

IA-3: Democrat Cindy Axne announced she will challenge Rep. David Young (R) next year. Axne’s is a former government worker.  Pete D’Alessandro, who ran Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign in Iowa, is exploring a potential bid as as well.

MN-7: Trucking company owner Matt Prosch announced he will seek the Republican nomination to challenge Rep. Collin Peterson (D). State Rep. Tim Miller and underfunded 2016 candidate Dave Hughes are also seeking the GOP nomination for this rural seat Donald Trump carried by a 62% to 31% margin.

MN-8: Former counter-terrorism analyst Leah Phifer (D) is exploring a primary challenge to Rep. Nick Nolan. Nolan recently announced that he will not run for governor of Minnesota next year, but has yet to announce whether he’ll seek re-election next year.

MT-AL: Newly elected Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) was fined $385, sentenced to 40 hours of community service and 20 hours of sessions for anger management after pleading guilty to assaulting Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs on the eve of his election. Gianforte has publicly apologized for his actions to Ben Jacobs, donated $50,000 to Committee to Protect Journalism and took full responsibility for his actions.

NJ-3: President Donald Trump held a fundraiser for Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) at the Trump National Golf Club and raised over $800,000 for MacArthur’s re-election campaign. MacArthur was one of 24 House Republicans targeted by a Democratic advocacy group in TV and digital advertisement for his vote in favor of the AHCA.

NY-19: We are beginning to lose track of how many Democrats are running against Rep. John Faso (R). Jeff Beals, a former diplomat and CIA officer, is the latest Democrat to throw his hat into the ring. Beals joins Brian Flynn, Antonio Delgado and former Gov. Cuomo aide Gareth Rhodes in seeking the Democrat nomination. Hopefully some of these candidates will take advantage of NY’s fusion voting ballot law and carry their campaigns all the way through to November on minor party lines if they lose the Democrat primary!

NY-23: Democrat Ulysses Town Councilman and Star Trek: Deep Space Nine actor John “J.G.” Hertzler (he played Klingon General Martok) announced he intends to run for Congress vs. Rep. Tom Reed (R). The jury is still out as to if Hertzler will be a serious candidate or not. On the one hand Hertzler’s acting fame and local political involvement could make him a serious candidate while on the other Hertzler claimed he wanted to dress up and campaign in the persona of Mark Twain. Rep. Tom Reed had a close call in 2012 when he was re-elected by a less than 4% margin to a C-list 28 year old Democrat candidate. Since then he cruised to fairly easy re-elections in 2014 and 2016.

PA-6: EMILY’s List is backing Democrat Chrissy Houlahan in her bid to win the Democrat nomination to face Rep. Ryan Costello (R). Donald Trump lost this district to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a razor thin 48.2% to 47.6% margin while Costello won it by more than 14 percentage points. Houlahan faces Bob Dettore in the Democratic primary.

State, Local & Other:

UK Elections: At RRHelections we know that he who draws the lines wins. Does anyone have a good analysis of  what the 2017 British Elections results would have been if the constituencies boundaries were redrawn? I saw one estimate that with the exact same vote with different boundaries the Conservatives would have won a 20 seat majority. Does anyone know if that is accurate or have a detailed analysis of what could have been without the current Labour gerrymander?

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126 Comments

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 6:23 am

    Tim Alberta, the former leader political writer for the National Review, has a great profile about why evangelical support for Trump has been so rock-solid.

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/13/trump-and-the-religious-right-a-match-made-in-heaven-215251


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Republican Michigander June 13, 2017 at 10:31 am

      Alberta and I are from the same hometown. His dad Richard is a pastor of Cornerstone Evangelical Presbyterian Church and is known to be socially conservative in his views. I know a lot of active Republicans who go there, although I am not Evangelical. I don’t know them well, but I’ve met them before. Pastor Richard at Right to Life events, and Tim at Mackinac Conference when he was working with National Journal. I don’t know Tim’s politics since he’s surely had influences from both sides, but he knows Evangelicals and is at least fair in his coverage.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 10:39 am

        His reporting in NRO has mostly been fair and informative. And I don’t like most of the National Review.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 6:40 am

    GA-6 SUSA Poll:

    Tied.
    Was Ossoff +7 3 weeks ago.

    Ossoff is up 19 among the early vote.

    http://www.11alive.com/mb/news/politics/elections/ballot/race-to-replace-tom-price-handel-and-ossoff-tied-with-one-week-to-go/448120182


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • rdelbov June 13, 2017 at 8:01 am

      well well–I note as well that there appears to be a surge of GOP voters among early voters over the last few days.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 8:04 am

      Considering how well the GOP is doing among early voters, they seem to be predicting a monstrously massive wave of GOP voters on election day. I am a little skeptical of that.

      However, it’s interesting that the GOP candidate is winning 75% of people with no or a mixed opinion on Trump. That might be a bright spot for the GOP in 2018.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • rdelbov June 13, 2017 at 8:09 am

        Actually that was what happened In April 2017-election day voters went big for the GOP candidates—That is the established pattern for the GOP in GA. Since early voting has started the GOP has won the election day vote–The early vote is always a cannablization of the D vote in GA. Ds vote early -traditionally in GA-while R voters vote on election day. Of course the pattern could be changing but so far every election since 2006 has shown that pattern.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 8:14 am

          Yeah, but I suspect the EV is a similar, albeit less pronounced cannibalization of the GOP vote. In the primary, Republicans had a lot of choices and thus a very good reason to delay their vote. In this general, there’s only one Republican and thus that doesn’t apply. Thus, I’d rather compare the EV to the general election in 2016.

          Hillary Clinton won early voters 57%-40% in 2016. Ossoff is up 19 among the early vote, so I guess 59.5-40.5.

          This is all consistent with a narrow lead for Ossoff, which most of the polls seem to be showing.

          Alternatively, this poll just indicates that Democrats will cannibalize their election day vote at greater than ever levels.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA June 13, 2017 at 8:16 am

        Could that be a function of people like myself being largely ambivalent of Trump, but thinking the left has went off the deep end?


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

        • PiT June 13, 2017 at 2:44 pm

          That is the angle that nobody really talks about: people dislike Trump, but what do they think of the Democrats? I fall into the same boat as you do. I am deeply conflicted over Trump, but I won’t consider voting for the Democrats.

    • prsteve11 June 13, 2017 at 8:48 am

      That’s awesome. I find it hard to believe that Ossoff would be that far ahead with the early vote that seems strongly Republican?


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • cer June 13, 2017 at 8:54 am

        Survey USA tends to be rather odd. I would be very tempted to add a few points for Handel with this polling result.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • rdelbov June 13, 2017 at 1:37 pm

          MOE-maybe the GOP has momentum in the voting?-very close but IMO the GOP is party with a ground game in the district.

      • Manhatlibertarian June 13, 2017 at 4:40 pm

        How could Ossoff be ahead by 19 points in the early vote according to the SUSA poll but GOP early ballots to date seem to be ahead of Dem early ballots by close to 13,000? Two reasons:

        1. Ossoff has been trying to pass himself off as an economic centrist (falsely IMO) and may be getting a bigger chuck of GOP ballots than Handel is of Dem ballots. The AJC poll had Ossoff getting 13% of GOP voters and Handel only getting 3% of Dem voters, for example.

        2. The biggest reason is because No Party ballots are the biggest early vote category, exceeding GOP votes by several thousand. Based on what happened with the April early votes, that Ossoff carried by a big margin, one has to assume that Ossoff easily carried these ballots. So he should be ahead with this category.

        Early in person voting will conclude at the end of the week, and I expect you will see the GOP early ballot lead increasing over the Dem early ballots by then (By the way at 102,790 as of 6/12 the June early vote so far already surpasses the entire 2014 general election early vote). But Ossoff is still likely to go into election day with some type of early vote lead, although not as high as 19 points IMO. Handel has to turn out the GOP vote on election day, turning over every rock in search of her voters.

        • rdelbov June 13, 2017 at 4:56 pm

          Of course the polling took place between June 7th and 11th and the sample size of early voters at around 200 has a large MOE. SUSA has Handel leading among indie votes and by party ID they have found a few more D respondents then R respondents. So the internals are a bit screwy.

          I might add that 6% of the voters who have voted are undecided as to who they are going to vote for. Just roll that over in your mind a bit and just remember that all polling is crazy at times. Yup you have voted but you can honestly say that you are undecided as to who voted for? I guess in a couple of days you get to call the election commission and asked someone to cast your ballot for you? Or maybe you really did cast a blank ballot?

          • Manhatlibertarian June 13, 2017 at 5:46 pm

            Yeah if SUSA has Handel winning the independents then Handel should be ahead and the race should nor be a tie (as SUSA has it) because Ossoff has to do well with independents to win because there are just not enough Dems in the CD. So the internals are a bit strange.

            There are always people in polls who say they have already voted but are undecided. One has to conclude that either they didn’t understand the question, don’t want to say who they voted for or have a brain that only properly functions in some alternative universe.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 7:18 am

    NY Times: Is Bernie Sanders Too Old for 2020? His Fiercest Fans Say No!

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/13/us/politics/bernie-sanders-progressives-presidential-election-2020.html


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Izengabe June 13, 2017 at 9:33 am

      For those people who think Donald Trump will be too old to be president when is 2nd term would end in 2025 we give you a candidate who will be that age at the start of his 1st term!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 9:50 am

        Hey, people thought John McCain was too old to be President. And he’s still kicking around. I think his mother is alive too. Now, the Comey testimony had some people suspecting McCain was losing some mental capacities, but I totally reject that because it obscures the fact that John McCain has always been crazy. He seems pretty healthy!


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 7:51 am

    Bob Mueller filling his staff almost entirely with big Democratic donors.

    http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/robert-mueller-stocks-staff-democrat-donors/

    The special counsel wasn’t a terrible idea, but the choice absolutely was. Picking a Comey crony is going to have terrible long-term effects on the administration and GOP and is especially short-sighted from an administration that promised to drain the swamp of people like cretinous Comey cronies.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • segmentation_fault June 13, 2017 at 7:52 am

      Bob Mueller is a Republican.


      En Marche! Make our planet great again!

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 7:57 am

        As are Evan McMullin and James Comey. We really do have two opposition parties.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • HS June 13, 2017 at 10:13 am

        Mueller is Comeys mentor, according to Politico. And back during the Bush Administration, Mueller threatened to resign if Bush didn’t listen/fired Comey. That is an obvious conflict of interest, regardless of what party either belongs to (which supposedly is the Republican for both).

        However, aside from the Never Trumpers, there has been a long tradition of Republicans who are real RINOs. The MSM will reward any Republican if said Republican will bash his party or President. The MSM will treat them as heroes, which all politicians like. There were RINOs under Reagan and both Bushes. McCain frequently did very well as a RINO under Bush II. It was only when McCain ran for President that he learned that this praise was insincere and partisan.

    • dpmapper June 13, 2017 at 8:19 am

      You’re going to have to do better than a LifeZette article that cherry picks selected donations from some of the attorneys on his staff doesn’t bother to mention the contribution history of all of the *other* attorneys Mueller has hired.


      #neither

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 8:23 am

        I’m pretty sure that’s his entire staff. You don’t staff a government investigations case with 20 attorneys. I can’t see anything beyond 5-6 for even a complicated one, which this is not.

        Edit: having checked, there are 5 attorneys on Mueller’s team. 4 of them are big democratic donors. The fifth is Aaron Zebley, his former chief of staff.

        The timeline of the investigation is roughly two years, so just enough time to try to get a Democratic House elected so they can try to prosecute Trump through the political channels.

        So it seems Mueller should be fired immediately.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • zbigreddogz June 13, 2017 at 10:04 am

          You don’t staff a government investigations case with 20 attorneys. I can’t see anything beyond 5-6 for even a complicated one, which this is not.

          I’d be SHOCKED if they only hired 5-6 attorneys.

        • Tekzilla June 13, 2017 at 10:42 am

          Allahpundit‏
          @allahpundit
          Follow
          More
          If Mueller’s supposedly a Democratic hack, why was Trump considering him to replace Comey?


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • edtorres04 June 13, 2017 at 10:47 am

            I didn’t know he was considering that. Mueller preceded Comey.

            • Tekzilla June 13, 2017 at 11:24 am

              Trump interviewed him a few days before Mueller was selected for the Investigation.


              36/M/NY-01 (D)

              • HS June 13, 2017 at 11:49 am

                It is not whether he is a hack; he may or may not be. It is that it is a clear conflict of interest to have him leading the investigation. He and Comey are extremely close, and Comey has a clear interest in seeing Trump be punished.

                That doesn’t change even if Trump wanted to hire Mueller for FBI, or a zillion ‘delicate genius’ in the government say Mueller is the most morally great person ever. The fact that all that is true just shows how out of touch the political class is (And/or How foolish Trump is).

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 10:51 am

            It’s almost as if Trump makes bad staffing decisions…


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • AD123 June 13, 2017 at 11:26 am

          In the private sector you could easily staff 20-30 (or more) attorneys on a complex gov’t investigation case, at least for the initial stages where you’re sifting through a million documents.

  • andyroo312 June 13, 2017 at 8:24 am

    Final hunch on tonight – Northam by 9, Gillespie by 3.


    MA-7

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 8:46 am

      Actually, pretty much exactly what I was thinking.

      At least among people I know from when I lived in the DC area (the ones all the way over in the dark reaches of NoVa), the ones who aren’t super-politically-wonky seem to be going “hey, I like this Corey Stewart guy”. Including a few people who hate Confederate-related stuff but think the push against historical monuments is totally Orwellian and mainstream Republican acquiescence is weak or “cucked”.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • HoneyBee June 13, 2017 at 8:39 am

    Not sure why everyone is projecting such tiny wins for Gillespie when he’s way up in nearly every poll.

    I’m going with Northam by 5 and Gillespie by 40


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • edtorres04 June 13, 2017 at 10:20 am

      There was a poll this weekend that had Stewart up by 1.

      • BostonPatriot June 13, 2017 at 1:15 pm

        That was probably enough to get mainstream GOPers motivated to go out and vote for Gillespie. (I’m one of them–until that poll I had been thinking about Wagner, on the assumption Gillespie was in no danger).

        • JPF June 13, 2017 at 6:01 pm

          Me too. But I doubt many primary voters read that poll.


          VA-08 - Reluctant Trump Supporter

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 6:34 pm

            Considering how few primary voters there will be, a statistically significant number of them may actually have seen the poll.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • JPF June 13, 2017 at 8:46 am

    Completely empty voting site when I voted at 7:30 a.m. this morning in Arlington. But I think more and more people in NOVA are figuring out how easy it is to vote absentee (all you have to do is work in another county).


    VA-08 - Reluctant Trump Supporter

    • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 8:51 am

      And most actually don’t work locally.


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • HS June 13, 2017 at 10:17 am

      Pretty much the same for me. I voted Gillespie and Vogel.

  • RogueBeaver June 13, 2017 at 8:59 am

    CNN-VA: Magic Dem number is 375k. http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/13/politics/what-to-watch-in-virginia-primary/index.html


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

  • Upstater22 June 13, 2017 at 9:14 am

    UK: Per Electoral Calculus, using the 2017 election results with the proposed 2018 boundaries, Conservatives would still be 3 seats short of a majority.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2018.html


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • Izengabe June 13, 2017 at 9:36 am

      Thanks!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 9:46 am

      Thanks!


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • jncca June 13, 2017 at 10:37 am

      For those who didn’t click the link, a big problem for the Tories is that they would lose 5 seats in London while Labour would gain 1 under new boundaries. This cancels out the effect of a massive seat reduction in Wales.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • Izengabe June 13, 2017 at 12:06 pm

      Actually under the new proposed maps the Tories would have a functioning majority without DUP. Sinn Féin would take 9 seats under the new maps which means only 591 MPs will actually be seated in Parliament. 296 seats would be a functioning majority and Conservatives would have 298 seats.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • GOPTarHeel June 13, 2017 at 1:01 pm

        The fact that Sinn Fein would win 9 seats to the DUP’s 7 when the DUP won significantly more votes than SF shows why these maps will never be enacted by parliament, particularly one that requires DUP votes to sustain the government.


        R/NC-4.

        • Izengabe June 13, 2017 at 1:20 pm

          Which is why the Conservatives should have redrawn the maps BEFORE calling an election. Now they will need DUP’s votes to pass the new map and they have a vested interest in ensuring a hung Parliament for as long as possible.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 2:34 pm

            True, but it’s also probable the Tories will be less popular in the next election. So the DUP has an incentive to give the Tories the best possible map.

            Really, the boundary drawing shouldn’t be a problem if the Tories are willing to gerrymander NI for the DUP.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • GOPTarHeel June 13, 2017 at 6:14 pm

              They absolutely should not gerrymander Northern Ireland. They should let NI keep an extra seat. They have 18 now, going to 17, and the map makers took a very safe Sinn Fein seat and cracked it up with lots of lean unionist territory. Keep that seat and things will be fine for the DUP and fair to SF.


              R/NC-4.

              • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 6:30 pm

                Aside from Belfast South it looks as if the NI political scene may be a stable two-party alignment under the current lines.


                Dem NC-11

              • Jon June 13, 2017 at 6:30 pm

                Changing the total number of seats that NI gets would require a change in the law by parliment. If that can of worms gets opened they’ll change total number of seats for parliament as a whole and use 2017 numbers.

                What they could do without affecting everything else is have the Northern Ireland committee make a major redraw compared to the earlier published version. There’s probably a clean way to do this that doesn’t increase SF’s seats while keeping the total number of seats the same.


                45, M, MO-02

              • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 6:40 pm

                Well, the DUP probably wouldn’t accept 17 seats, so it always was going to be 18. So what I mean, at that point, you might as well just tell the DUP to draw the lines they want for Northern Ireland. Which may as very well what you want


                I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • Skaje June 13, 2017 at 7:43 pm

              Gerrymandering NI isn’t like gerrymandering Maryland, there would be protests or worse. NI politics are defined purely by “do you want to be part of Ireland or the UK?” There is a delicate balance, no one is going to risk it just to rig another seat or two for the unionists over the Irish nationalists.

    • Jon June 13, 2017 at 6:27 pm

      Summary: While Labour has 16 more seats disappearing than Tories and one more brand new Tory seat appears than for Labour, it is largely offset by Labour net gaining 14 compared to the Tories net losing 8 seats among seats that change.

      However, although 298 seats is technically short of a majority, due to SF not taking their seats it’s sufficient to function as one, even at the current 7 seats (and note that the changes imply SF getting 9 seats; 1 disappears, but 3 existing seats switch to them)

      Other parties: Lib Dems would be a bigger loser: They notionally lose 5 seats (all from existing seats)

      Green notionally loses it’s only seat; but I doubt it in actual practice.

      SNP notionally loses 3 seats.

      PC also notionally loses 3 of its 4 seats; but this is another case that in actual practice I’d doubt they’d lose more than 2.


      45, M, MO-02

  • Upstater22 June 13, 2017 at 9:29 am

    NY-23: I have never of JG Hertzler, so not sure how much “fame” or political connection he has.

    But the Mark Twain reference is locally significant and not something completely out of left field. Twain’s wife Olivia Langdon Clemens was born in Elmira. Twain spent many summers at his sister-in-law’s estate “Quarry Farm” and it is there that he wrote such classics as Huckleberry Finn, Tom Sawyer, and the Prince and the Pauper. Twain, his wife, and all his children are buried in Woodlawn Cemetery in Elmira. Chemung County is known as Mark Twain Country and there are many reference to him throughout the county (Mark Twain Golf Course, Huck Finn Field, Clemens Square, etc)
    http://www.marktwaincountry.com/


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • Izengabe June 13, 2017 at 9:38 am

      That’s all very nice, but it doesnt mean voters there will want to elect a person pretending to be Mark Twain as their next Congressman!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • HS June 13, 2017 at 10:20 am

        This was a Cheers episode, where Woody was in a play as Mark Twain and he believed an elderly women thought he was really elderly. And as we may remember, Woody later got elected to the Boston city council.

        • Lucas Black June 13, 2017 at 11:30 am

          I wasn’t a big fan of Cheers, but wasn’t the whole point of Woody’s character was that he was stupid? Did he get elected to the city council because the writers thought that would be funny since he was so dumb?

          • HS June 13, 2017 at 11:53 am

            Your lack of appreciation of Cheers is both sad and un-American 😉

            Yes.

            • Lucas Black June 13, 2017 at 1:46 pm

              I liked Night Court much better.

              • HS June 13, 2017 at 2:05 pm

                I liked them both. Very different humor though. But Night Court was created for Harry Anderson who had made a name for himself on Cheers.

                • rdelbov June 13, 2017 at 2:12 pm

                  Big fan of Mel Torme–so Night Court was a hit for me!!This song would 70 years this year–“Careless Hands” it was Mel Torme only #1 hit. I did watch the Cosby show but rarely just the channel or TV on for Cheers.

    • Tekzilla June 13, 2017 at 9:56 am

      DS9 is one of the greatest Sci Fi series of all times, so thats like totally a lot of weight man.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • Greyhound June 13, 2017 at 11:09 am

        Hey, it was the only watchable Star Trek Series, okay? If Gul Ducat was running for President I’d damn well vote for him! Make the Cardassian Union Great again!


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

        • Tekzilla June 13, 2017 at 11:25 am

          There’s a great Dukat/Trump parody account on twitter.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • HS June 13, 2017 at 12:06 pm

          I disagree 100%!

          The Next Generation, starting about the 3rd season, was excellent. It just took them some time to find their sea legs.

          • Upstater22 June 13, 2017 at 12:14 pm

            TNG is certainly the best Star Trek series. I know this because of how many Picard memes are out there.
            Tying this all together, there is an episode (actually, two episodes) where the crew travels back in time to the 19th century and Mark Twain is the major character that they interact with there.


            Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • Son_of_the_South June 13, 2017 at 12:01 pm

        Yeah. I immediately recognized Hertzler’s name, but I’m a huge nerd. I agree, though, it’s the best of the Star Trek series and is criminally underrated. In many ways its melancholy tone is a precursor to the realness and ‘make the best of a shitty situation’ mentality that pervaded Battlestar Galactica. That makes sense, since both are Ronald Moore shows.


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • edtorres04 June 13, 2017 at 10:19 am

    Florida CFO: Atwater (one of the biggest political disapointments in recent years) will be leaving on June 30th:

    http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/cfo-jeff-atwaters-last-day-will-be-june-30/2327032

    I believe that Scott will appoint the current mayor of Jax to replace him.

  • RogueBeaver June 13, 2017 at 11:01 am

    2020 watch: Oprah will never run for office. http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/13/entertainment/oprah-running-president/index.html


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • Lucas Black June 13, 2017 at 11:32 am

      There would be too may stories about how badly she treats her staff is she did.

      • Son_of_the_South June 13, 2017 at 12:02 pm

        And Stedman…


        23, R, DC-AL
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Republican Michigander June 13, 2017 at 12:52 pm

      Thank God. That actually worries me.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • kewgardens June 13, 2017 at 12:27 pm

    On a somewhat related note, anyone think that Booker is in any disadvantaged because he is unmarried?

    • OGGoldy June 13, 2017 at 12:51 pm

      I actually do. Though the thinly veiled homophobic snickering at unmarried politicians has lessened of late, it is hardly gone. And right wrong or otherwise, there is still a strong push to be a “family man/woman” in politicians.

    • MikeFL June 13, 2017 at 1:23 pm

      After this past election cycle, I honestly doubt it.


      26 | FL-3/-16 | FisCon

  • Izengabe June 13, 2017 at 1:56 pm

    NH-1: State Sen. Andy Sanborn (R) is in. He announced that he will challenge Democrat Rep. Carol Shea-Porter.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • cer June 13, 2017 at 2:08 pm

      Looks like a decent recruit for the NH GOP!


      Conservative first, Republican second!

  • sentinelrules June 13, 2017 at 1:56 pm

    NH-1

    State Senator Andy Sanborn (R) announces run

    http://nhpr.org/post/gop-state-sen-andy-sanborn-announces-1st-district-congressional-bid#stream/0

  • Son_of_the_South June 13, 2017 at 2:57 pm

    Reports out of VA have turnout very low.


    23, R, DC-AL
    Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 4:08 pm

      I’m fascinated in how Corey Stewart will do in Prince William County. Still amused that he leads the local government of a county that voted 21% for Hillary Clinton.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • fzw June 13, 2017 at 4:47 pm

        He’s probably DOA in a general election there if he stands for reelection. If Jackson Miller lost by 7 points to an underfunded nobody, a more controversial Stewart is probably toast when his time comes around


        NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
        #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

  • indocon June 13, 2017 at 4:21 pm

    If we ever had any brains and money to exploit the natural and inherent contradictions of modern American left:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rev-al-sharpton-calls-for-more-diversity-in-white-dominated-weed-industry_us_5940213ee4b02402687d271e

    • Greyhound June 13, 2017 at 4:26 pm

      Do black people even care what Sharpton says anymore?


      R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

      • Izengabe June 13, 2017 at 5:30 pm

        “Anymore” implies that there was a time when people cared what that loudmouth con artist said.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 4:26 pm

      What are the natural and inherent contradictions of the modern American left in that article?


      Dem NC-11

      • indocon June 13, 2017 at 4:30 pm

        When you combine Rev Al with you RM, you got a room full of contradictions right there buddy.

        • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 4:33 pm

          Fair enough, but in order for brains and money to enable you to exploit the natural and inherent contradictions of the modern American left you will first have to be able to articulate what they are.


          Dem NC-11

          • indocon June 13, 2017 at 9:36 pm

            Look at who is in your coalition
            – Hindus and Muslims (they are fighting in india over things like beef and dating)
            – Jews and Arabs (nuff said)
            – Capitalists (Wall Street and SV Types) and Labor Unions
            – Islamists and Gays/Feminists (Omar Mateen and his victims would have voted for HRC probably)
            – Black and Brown (look at latin America for how well these groups get along)

            In most parts of the worlds these groups are cutting each others throats.

            • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 9:40 pm

              Well, ok, but what does that have to do with the article on Sharpton and cannabis?


              Dem NC-11

              • indocon June 13, 2017 at 10:03 pm

                Ok RM, guess should have added another line…..”organized white pot business distribution vs street cred brown/black distribution network”

                This is actually a problem we have to deal with in all honesty, as pot gets legalized the organized distribution business is going to take up bulk of $$’s in this business, leaving hundred of thousands of neighborhood drug dealers with reduced/no business. What are we going to do with them?

                • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 10:22 pm

                  Well, my guess is that neighborhood drug dealers in urban areas will switch to crack and neighborhood drug dealers in rural areas will switch to meth and the nation will be as polarized as ever. In all seriousness, I’m no fan of Al Sharpton but I haven’t the slightest problem with him saying that the pot industry should be an equal opportunity business. The truth of the matter though is that the legal pot industry is so white right now mainly because the states that have a legal pot industry are that white. I wouldn’t be surprised if Al Sharpton doesn’t realize that, but it probably wouldn’t alter his speech either way. In any case, I doubt this will be an issue once the legal pot industry spreads to other states (we’ll know about CA soon enough). In fact, this strikes me as an easy-entry sector for minorities. I seriously doubt whites are going to take over the pot industry in West Oakland or East LA.


                  Dem NC-11

                  • Greyhound June 14, 2017 at 12:39 am

                    Isn’t Al Sharpton the guy who tried to rag on Howard Dean for not having a more diverse administration in Vermont? I’m not entirely sure he realizes that there aren’t that many Black people in Mendocino County.


                    R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

                    • Izengabe June 14, 2017 at 8:31 am

                      I dont know about that. What I do know is Al Sharton is the charlatan who perpetrated the Tawana Brawley fraud , caused the Crown Height Pogrom, instigated the Freddie’s Fashion Mart massacre and was an FBI snitch. F*** Al Sharpton.


                      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                    • californianintexas June 14, 2017 at 3:47 pm

                      Sharpton was loony even for my more liberal 2004 self.


                      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

  • Republican Michigander June 13, 2017 at 5:08 pm

    Michigan – SD-38 – Saw on Failbook (Facebook) that Ed McBroom is running for Tom Casperson’s seat. Casperson is termed out. It’s a seat that Trump won, but before Casperson was democrat for probably 50+ years. I’d call it a toss-up if Scott Dianda runs for it. The district is the UP minus Republican leaning Mackinac, Chippewa, and Luce Counties. I’m not sure if Romney won the district or not. Bush might have in 2004.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Manhatlibertarian June 13, 2017 at 5:28 pm

    Interesting situation developing in Erie County (Buffalo and suburbs). Longtime member of the Dem party and 3 term South Buffalo Assemblyman Mickey Kearns says he is now considering not competing in the Dem primary for Erie County Clerk and may only run on the GOP and Conservative Party lines for the post. Although Kearns considers himself to be a Dem, he has also run for Assembly with the backing of the GOP and Conservatives as well as his own party. But now Erie Co Dem Chair Jeremy Zellner refuses to back him because he has GOP endorsement for County Clerk, and his Dem organization is instead backing former radio newsman Steve Cichon in the Dem primary. Kearns says he is pro-life and has an A+ rating from the NRA. As a result Kearns says of Dem leaders “If you don’t fit into their criteria you’re not a good Dem.” Kind of reminds me of what happened to the Dem nominee for mayor of Omaha. Will be interesting to see if the long term Dem does not compete in the Dem primary and only runs as a Repub-Conservative.

    http://buffalonews.com/2017/06/12/kearns-may-skip-democratic-primary-clerk/

  • bluewahoo June 13, 2017 at 5:57 pm

    As a of this afternoon there were just 200 fewer democratic primary ballots cast in nelson county than votes cast for Clinton/Kaine this past fall. The pipelines Perriello has been running against are very unpopular there.

    Charlottesville City turnout (not too far from Nelson and Perriellos hometown) is way up as well.

    GOP turnout is low across the board.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 6:32 pm

    Presented without comment

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/13/15786220/jon-ossoff-ad


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Jon Henrik Gilhuus June 13, 2017 at 6:42 pm

    Alice Martin, who briefly administered the Alabama DOJ before Steven Marshall was appointed, is running against him for AG: http://www.al.com/news/birmingham/index.ssf/2017/06/alice_martin_announces_run_for.html#incart_river_index


    The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
    - P.J. O'Rourke

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 6:48 pm

    Amusing PPP poll that buries all of the bad news in the PDF. Trump approval at 41-52 and all of the Trump-style questions poll similarly. Democrats also lead 50-40 on the generic ballot, with an eyepopping 57-39 lead among the voters who are “most interested” in voting. The Senate is absolutely in play with those numbers.

    Despite that, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Cory Booker are tied with Trump as their favorables are also quite poor. Only Sanders leads.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/06/plurality-of-voters-think-trump-obstructed-justice.html


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 6:57 pm

      This poll doesn’t have favorability ratings for Harris, Warren, or Booker. I think what you meant to say is that Harris and Booker are beating the Donald despite their low name recognition.


      Dem NC-11

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 7:00 pm

        I’ve grown to dismiss the undecideds break for the challenger or low-name rec hypothesis. Because it was dramatically false in 2012 and led conservatives into a total goose chase/breakdown.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 7:08 pm

          Um, yeah. There’s good reason to dismiss that hypothesis in the midst of an election campaign. The Biden and Sanders figures though quite clearly indicate that a majority of the undecideds in this poll are inclined to kick the Donald to the curb.


          Dem NC-11

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 7:11 pm

            Not useful because either of those two candidates would have defeated Trump in 2016 had they been the nominee. That fact did not let Hillary Clinton win.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 7:17 pm

            I have also grown to expect every candidate to be damaged by a presidential campaign. Because of the extremism of core primary voters, every candidate has to debase themselves to win a primary. Such as Romney in 2012 and Clinton in 2016. And of course, Trump in 2016.

            Cory Booker is a perfectly reasonable man, but his Jeff Sessions grandstanding was embarrassing. And he knows that if wants to win a Democratic primary in the era of BLM and Antifa and safe spaces, he can’t stop.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 7:20 pm

              You are of course free to expect and project whatever you want but this poll is not predicting the future it is a snapshot of the present and your characterization of it is false.


              Dem NC-11

              • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 7:24 pm

                You can’t dismiss a poll as merely a snapshot of the present when your entire objection was that future political developments would inevitably change the poll in your favor. Of course, you are free to interpret all data as unequivocally positive for the relevant tribe, since that has worked out pretty well for us.


                I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 7:31 pm

                  Are you high or is something else compromising your reading comprehension? I didn’t make any statement about what effect future political developments would have on this poll. I stated quite clearly that the reason for the close numbers are Harris and Booker’s low name recognition rather than because “their favorables are also quite poor” which you simply made up. I didn’t say anything about what their numbers would be if their name recognition was higher. I did say that a majority of undecideds in this poll are clearly leaning against the Donald based on the Biden/Sanders match ups. What those voters would then decide to do if they were familiar with Harris or Booker is obviously unknown at this time.


                  Dem NC-11

                  • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 7:48 pm

                    Which of course is a projection into the future (“surely these voters will support xx candidate when they learn more about then), as we know many people who would have voted for Sanders (and did vote for Obama) opted for Trump over Clinton.

                    There were also of course, a willful blindness to the existence of these voters by many inaccurate and arrogant prognosticators because it violated their Manichean worldview of good guys vs. deplorables.


                    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                    • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 7:54 pm

                      It’s a projection of your fantasies into the future. Don’t put words in my mouth. You obviously have no idea what I think about this since in fact I don’t think what you just attributed to me. In any case, I’ve said what I had to say and I’m done with this subthread.


                      Dem NC-11

      • kewgardens June 13, 2017 at 7:03 pm

        I’m not sure that Harris or Warren will poll better once they are better known. 🙂

        • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 7:11 pm

          They may not but it is nonetheless a lie to state that they are polling close to the Donald in this poll due to their favorables being poor. This poll didn’t ask about their favorables and it’s quite clear (even if plain common sense doesn’t tell you as much) that at this point in time they’re polling close to the Donald because of low name recognition, at least for Booker and Harris. It’s also clear that Warren is better known (even if plain common sense doesn’t tell you as much) since she picks up a few points on Harris/Booker and also loses a couple more points to the Donald.


          Dem NC-11

        • rdelbov June 13, 2017 at 7:34 pm

          I never get too excited about a PPP poll. I got more excited about Shakespeare then PPP. Because I am pretty sure the Bard wrote all of his plays while I am not sure that PPP actually polls- okay actually I said say polls without an agenda. This particular poll has a level of democrats akin to say election day–okay I can’t find an election day with this many Ds in a sample since say 1964.

    • prsteve11 June 13, 2017 at 8:35 pm

      The House may be in play but not the Senate.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 8:37 pm

        The third most competitive Republican-held seat is in Texas. Texas was 11 points more Republican than the nation overall in 2016. I think Texas is competitive with a Democratic generic ballot lead of 10+ (which most polls are showing), especially because I don’t think Ted Cruz is that strong of a candidate. Democrats can win Texas in 2018 if Republicans won Illinois in 2010!


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • prsteve11 June 13, 2017 at 8:43 pm

          I see your point, but you have to remember that Texas hasn’t voted for a Dem statewide since the 1990s. Additionally, Texas was more ‘in play’ (a 9 point win is still pretty decent) likely in no small part because of the Bush family snub of Trump and residual anger from the Cruz/Trump bloody primary. The state’s popular governor will likely be re-elected in a landslide and that will also help down-ballot in a lower turnout mid-term election. It seems that voting Democrat is a sin for most Texans!

          This also assumes that the Dems win every one of their seats (a tall order) as well as AZ and NV. I just don’t see that happening, because even in a good year, no party wins them all.


          SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • Manhatlibertarian June 13, 2017 at 6:55 pm

    The WSJ filed an FOIA request with the Secret Service to see if they had any tapes of Trump’s meetings. The Secret Service had been involved with operating tape systems that some past presidents used. The answer was they had no such recordings. Of course, Trump could have used WH staff members to create such a system without the Secret Service, but if he did tape record meetings he didn’t do it like other presidents with the help of the Secret Service. So he may have been bluffing when he cautioned Comey that he might have tapes of their meetings but we shall see soon I expect, if such recording exist. If there are tapes that have to be turned over to Congress it may not be good news for Trump I suspect.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/secret-service-don-trump-tapes-article-1.3241601

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 9:10 pm

    An interesting postmortem of the UK election, as well as the general stupidity of pundits and journalists.

    https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2017/06/12/some-things-i-learned-from-ge2017-1-of-2/


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

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