VA Primary Liveblog

Results: AP || NYT || VPAP

10:05 ET- Those last few precincts shouldn’t change much; Gillespie will squeak by, with about a 1-point margin. That’s all folks… check back in tomorrow’s Roundup for a full recap.

9:53 ET- Fairfax has dumped. With 31 precincts left, Gillespie is up 4200.

9:47 ET- Vogel has the check. Gillespie+2900 with 78/118 unreported precincts from Fairfax County.

9:33 ET- 94%, Gillespie +2800, Vogel +4400. With over half of what’s left from Fairfax, I’m increasingly confident both leads will hold.

9:22 ET- 92%, Gillespie +2200, Vogel +4300. Over half of what’s left is in Fairfax.

9:17 ET- 91%, Gillespie +1500, Vogel +4700

9:05 ET- 88%, Gillespie +2000, Vogel +2600

8:57 ET- 86% in, Gillespie +1300, Vogel +3500

8:52 ET- Fairfax finally has the check. Gillespie +1300, Vogel +3400

8:44 ET- 83% in, Gillespie +1000, Vogel +4400

8:38 ET- 80% in, Gillespie +1800, Vogel +2600

8:33 ET- 76% in, and I’m going to switch to raw votes for the GOP. It’s Gillespie +2700, Vogel +1700. Fairfax still up 49-40 for Dems; not sure why AP hasn’t called that one.

8:26 ET-70% in, Gillespie 43-42 (2000 vote difference). Fairfax 49-40, Vogel +500 votes.

8:23 ET- Prince William just dumped in its entirety. Stewart won 60-31 there, but Gillespie still leads by under 1 point overall.

8:21 ET- 2/3 in. 44-42 Gillespie, 49-39 Fairfax, 42-41 Vogel.

8:15 ET- 61% in, 44-42 Gillespie. 48-40 Fairfax, Vogel up by 300 votes out of 190K cast.

8:10 ET- Northam has the check for Gov-D.

8:08 ET- One strange thing about the GOP side is that the coalitions are not what you might expect: Stewart is doing pretty well in suburban areas while Gillespie is winning some rural Southside and SWVA counties. Neither is really running up the score anywhere.

8:00 ET- 46% in, Gillespie 43-42, Northam 57, Vogel 43-40, Fairfax 48-40.

7:55 ET- 33% in, Northam 57 Gillespie 43-41.

7:51 ET- About a quarter in, and the GOP side is the more competitive one: Northam is up 57-43 and Gillespie is up 43-42. For LG, Fairfax 48-40, Vogel 43-40.

7:45 ET – A little shy of 20% in, 56-44 Northam, 43-41 Gillespie, 47-41 Fairfax, 41-41 Vogel/Reeves (Vogel up by 60 votes). Frustratingly there aren’t great geographic patterns in any of the races, so it’s hard to tell whether what is in is representative.

7:33 ET- 10% in and all four races are really tight: 45-42 Gillespie, 52-48 Northam. 46-42 Fairfax, 42-41 Vogel.

7:27 ET- 2% in, 57-43 Northam, 45-43 Gillespie, Fairfax over Platt 50-38, Vogel over Reeves 52-35.

7:22 ET- Northam up 60-40, Gillespie up 46-43. Fairfax is at 58 for LG-D, and Reeves is leading Vogel 48-35 for LG-R.

7:19 ET- Northam is up 69-30 in the first precincts, from Portsmouth, Prince George, and Pittsylvania. Gillespie is up 44-41 on Stewart.

7:00ET – Polls have closed in Virginia.

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134 Comments

  • cer June 13, 2017 at 7:03 pm

    These folks are covering it as well.

    https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Indy1975a June 13, 2017 at 11:46 pm

      Note to progressives and BernieBros who didn’t get it in 2016; you can’t get crushed among older blacks and lose among suburbanites and expect to win D primaries.


      Independent, R until November 2016

  • Mike1965 June 13, 2017 at 7:10 pm

    NYT Results page (AP with map).

    https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-primary-elections


    "Don't believe everything you read on the Internet" - Abraham Lincoln

    • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 7:15 pm

      Nobody beats VPAP. Use them down to the precinct. They are also usually the quickest.


      28, M, R, NY-10

  • bluewahoo June 13, 2017 at 7:22 pm

    Results coming in now.

    2.3% reported in GOP race. Its 44/43/12 Corey/Ed/Frank
    1.02% reported in Dem race. Its 51/49 Tom/Ralph

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 7:26 pm

    Even if only 10% of the precinfts in the county are reporting, it can’t be good for Gillespie if Stewart is leading in Loudoun County. It will probably turn into a large Gillespie lead as more precincts come in, but he should still be crushing there. Since even exurban Loudoun County is still well, Loudoun County


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • bluewahoo June 13, 2017 at 7:28 pm

    Holy crap Stewart is doing well.

    • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 7:29 pm

      Never dismiss outlier polls


      28, M, R, NY-10

      • ike56 June 13, 2017 at 7:37 pm

        Never doubt both the ability and outright desire of Republican primary voters to make stupid choices (“Let’s nominate the guy who will make them seethe the most! That will show ’em once they have the Governor’s mansion for yet another four years!”).


        38, USN CPO (CA-52, stuck with Scott Peters until a good candidate comes along).

        • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 7:46 pm

          VA’s rich history at that…


          28, M, R, NY-10

  • bluewahoo June 13, 2017 at 7:31 pm

    With only 200 precincts in, Northam is doing well in whats been reported in Henrico and Arlington. Good sign for his camp IMO.

  • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 7:32 pm

    Early results look fantastic for Northam.


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 7:35 pm

    DD is quickest by far.

    https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/virginia-governor-democratic/


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • cer June 13, 2017 at 7:37 pm

      They are very quick, and imho one of the best.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

  • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 7:36 pm

    Northam is up 57-43.

    It’s not close.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • cer June 13, 2017 at 7:40 pm

      Looks like Northam is going to take it.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

  • sentinelrules June 13, 2017 at 7:43 pm

    Oh dear….I’m not looking forward to when Prince William starts reporting.

  • RogueBeaver June 13, 2017 at 7:44 pm

    Wasserman calls it for Northam. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/874774263408062464


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

  • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 7:45 pm

    Gillespie only up by 1 now.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • fzw June 13, 2017 at 7:46 pm

      Stewart might actually win. If he gets a good margin out of Prince William…


      NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
      #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

      • StatenIslandTest June 13, 2017 at 7:48 pm

        If its Stewart vs. Northam does NJ actually become the more exciting 17 race?


        31, Jersey City

        • GOPTarHeel June 13, 2017 at 7:50 pm

          The VA House of Delegates likely flips.


          R/NC-4.

          • fzw June 13, 2017 at 7:51 pm

            Nah, but the margin will be closer than it would’ve in the HoD


            NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
            #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

  • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 7:58 pm

    Change Research (with pretty much no track record) wasn’t close to right on the Dem side, but was only pollster who had GOP side even close.

    Polling can be a cr*pshoot.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • CO Conservative June 13, 2017 at 9:35 pm

      Polls aren’t predictive. They look backward, not forward. It’s quite possible that in the closing days a bunch of Dems decided they wanted to win, not make a point.

  • sentinelrules June 13, 2017 at 8:06 pm

    AP/NYT just flipped…now showing Gillespie leading in Loudoun….making more sense.

    • shamlet June 13, 2017 at 8:08 pm

      These coalitions on the GOP side are making zero sense to me. Gillespie is winning a bunch of rural southside counties while Stewart is doing really well in wealthy exurbs (Hanover, Fauquier).


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • cer June 13, 2017 at 8:10 pm

        Welcome to campaigns and elections 101, always expect the unexpected.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Upstater22 June 13, 2017 at 8:11 pm

        Low turnout


        Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

  • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 8:09 pm

    Gillespie 77,804
    Stewart 73,787
    https://t.co/VupeaQFz3S #VAGov


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • Upstater22 June 13, 2017 at 8:11 pm

    Seems like Wagner is taking away from Gillespie in NOVA and VA Beach.


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

  • jncca June 13, 2017 at 8:13 pm

    Have to think Gillespie is favored as more of NoVa comes in. He may not dominate there but he should at least take more votes than Stewart.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • sentinelrules June 13, 2017 at 8:14 pm

      Prince William acting like Waukesha

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 8:14 pm

      Yeah. And he’s already ahead. And as we saw from 2012/2016, NOVA sucks at counting votes. Might as well call it for Gillespie.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • segmentation_fault June 13, 2017 at 8:18 pm

      Prince William is Stewart’s home county though.

      To be honest I thought with Trump as president the trend of unelectable outsiders doing well in GOP primaries and establishment candidates winning Dem primaries might flip. But it looks like that is not the case. The Sanders/Warren candidate is losing handily to a guy who is basically a Republican aside from social issues.


      En Marche! Make our planet great again!

    • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 8:19 pm

      A lot of those Fairfax precincts aren’t going to add much to Gillespie’s absolute vote, assuming of course that they vote for Gillespie (the Fairfax precincts that have reported thus far are roughly split between Gillespie and Stewart by precinct).


      Dem NC-11

  • Boehnerwasright June 13, 2017 at 8:18 pm

    Even if Gillespie pulls through in the end, it’s worrying for me that Stewart is even close.
    Gillespie had all the advantages you would want. Name-ID and credibility through his close 2014 race against Warner, a lot more money and most endorsements. Stewart ran a very weird campaign on southern heritage and monuments.

    That stewart is even somewhat close could hint that the Republican base wants more trumplike candidates which could be troubeling in a general election in Virgina or that Gillespie is a weaker candidate than expected. Although that makes little sense when we look at his 2014 race.
    Running a general election campaign where you have to talk about southern heritage and momunents to motivate your base feels hard in 2017 Virgina.

    • shamlet June 13, 2017 at 8:20 pm

      The best explanation here to me is that Gillespie got caught napping. I haven’t seen any sort of campaign presence from him on DC TV.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • jncca June 13, 2017 at 8:23 pm

        Ironic that he would narrowly lose to a senator he caught napping, then having the same thing happen to him, with a narrow win he sleepwalked through.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • Boehnerwasright June 13, 2017 at 8:29 pm

        But Stewart had even less presence as he raised next to no money. The best explanation I can find that is positive for Gillespie is that many R either sat out the race or voted in the dem primary as he looked safe to win.
        Maybe I simply don’t want to acknowledge that Stewart’s campaign is what the R base wants in a swing state, as this would point to a GOP I don’t want to see.

        • Izengabe June 13, 2017 at 8:47 pm

          After 2016 maybe you should acknowledge that a pro-Confederate demagogue like Stewart is what part of the GOP base wants.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 8:49 pm

            Or that you don’t have to be particularly pro-Confederate to think that the modern left is Orwellian and think that the GOP is utterly worthless at fighting them. Obviously, the memorial in New Orleans is atrocious. But you could make good arguments to keep RE Lee around (I am far less of a fan of the man than most Americans are but the man is an idol to almost all Southern whites). And liberals will eventually start going after battlefield memorials and cemeteries.

            Hell, Monticello is probably going to eventually be on the chopping block (omg Jefferson owned slaves!!)

            Like evangelicals, who view an existential threat against them that only Trump was willing to stand against, a similar dynamic might be seen here.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 8:59 pm

            I of course made my comments listing off crazy Orwellian things that liberals would do in the future if they got their way on the RE Lee statutes, but I have just been told by a friend in Charlottesville that liberals on the city council actually do want to get rid of Monticello after they get rid of the RE Lee statutes. Because you know, Thomas Jefferson.

            So this has moved from being a hypothetical future action to an imminent threat. Really, we are dealing with an ideological movement that looked at what the Taliban did to the Buddhas of Bamiyan and went “hey, this seems like a good way to operate!” (both are in fact, UNESCO World Heritage sites).

            This person of course, voted for Corey Stewart almost entirely on the memorials issue.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • cer June 13, 2017 at 8:19 pm

    A tad down to see the GOP with much lower turnout. 🙁


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • TheWizardOf144 June 13, 2017 at 8:22 pm

    Theoretically, there are enough votes in Prince William county alone to give it to Stewart. Did they turn out? We’ll see.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 8:23 pm

      Is Stewart actually going to win there? lol


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • segmentation_fault June 13, 2017 at 8:24 pm

      He cuts the Gillespie lead down to 2000 with PW in so not quite. Looks like Gillespie will win this one. Republican turnout is really anemic in Fairfax though, a county with more than 1m people.


      En Marche! Make our planet great again!

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 8:25 pm

        How many Republicans are actually left in Fairfax? 😛


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • fzw June 13, 2017 at 8:24 pm

      Well, he just might. He’s cushing PWC 61-30


      NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
      #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

    • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 8:24 pm

      Prince William evidently just dumped all but one precinct. It looks to me as if Gillespie is going to narrowly pull it out assuming the Fairfax precincts that have reported are representative.


      Dem NC-11

  • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 8:24 pm

    Big vote dump for Stewart in Prince William


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • jncca June 13, 2017 at 8:25 pm

    Wow expect more anti-Stewart votes in Prince William.

    Stewart should fall behind by another net 2,000 between Fairfax and the Richmond metro area but he still has an outside shot.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • sentinelrules June 13, 2017 at 8:26 pm

    Never have I looked so forward to election results from Fairfax, Alexandria, Roanoke, Petersburg, Arlington, Norfolk and Richmond…until tonight.

    • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 8:27 pm

      We usually want them to disappear…


      28, M, R, NY-10

  • Upstater22 June 13, 2017 at 8:29 pm

    67% in, Gillespie lead down to 1%. Seems a lot of the big Stewart areas in the SW/Appalachia and Prince William (?) are now in. Hopefully mostly Gillespie voters left out there in Hampton Roads and Fairfax.


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

  • BostonPatriot June 13, 2017 at 8:32 pm

    Just glad Perriello lost. He’s always had a smugness about him–a little too eager to show you how much better than politics as usual he is.

    Northam may be the tougher opponent for us this fall but I think Virginia and the GOP generally are better off with Perriello gone from the political scene.

    • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 8:58 pm

      The Sanders endorsement would’ve been reason enough for me to vote against Perriello in this primary, but I don’t know how representative I am in that regard.


      Dem NC-11

  • GOPTarHeel June 13, 2017 at 8:33 pm

    Anybody here actually think Stewart can win a general election?


    R/NC-4.

    • Upstater22 June 13, 2017 at 8:34 pm

      Nope


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 8:34 pm

      In Virginia?


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 8:35 pm

      Not particularly, but I don’t think Gillespie can win a general election either! If I lived in VA, I would have voted Stewart just to give a sleepwalking campaign and a totally equivocating, mushy candidate (and party) a motivating kick in the butt.

      They haven’t learned a thing after Eric Cantor’s defeat.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • TheWizardOf144 June 13, 2017 at 8:36 pm

      We don’t have to ask. Gillespie will be the nominee. After tonight, pretty sure he can’t win either but with the Bernie Bros deflated…maybe.

      • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 8:38 pm

        So it appears that Prince William was misreported earlier. The vote dump was 65 of 92 precincts, not 91 of 92 precincts.


        Dem NC-11

        • edtorres04 June 13, 2017 at 8:43 pm

          That’s worth 2000 net votes for Stewart

        • Upstater22 June 13, 2017 at 8:44 pm

          Actually gives me more hope for Gillespie. The Prince William results dont make a whole lotta sense, unless Stewart heavy areas have already reported and Gillespie areas are still out.


          Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • cer June 13, 2017 at 8:39 pm

        I actually think that Gillespie can win the general. Some of you in here give up a tad too quickly at times. 🙂


        Conservative first, Republican second!

      • HS June 13, 2017 at 8:44 pm

        We shall see about Gillespie. Virginia is becoming more and more liberal each year. It certainly is no longer a Southern state. However, I am not prepared to write this state off completely this year. A lot depends on what campaigns the candidates run, and who comes out to vote. As it always does.

        • segmentation_fault June 13, 2017 at 8:50 pm

          If Virginia is no longer a southern state then how is the guy who ran on a platform of protecting Confederate monuments almost winning a primary?


          En Marche! Make our planet great again!

          • GOPTarHeel June 13, 2017 at 8:51 pm

            Because Republican primary voters are wildly unrepresentative of the state?


            R/NC-4.

            • TheWizardOf144 June 13, 2017 at 8:55 pm

              We’re already in a cold civil war. A frightening percentage of both bases is looking forward to things heating up.

              • Boehnerwasright June 13, 2017 at 8:58 pm

                That prediction would clash with the easy win for Northram who once voted for W. Bush and was rumoured to switch to republican when he was in the state senate.
                Not the candidate who would likely be elected by a large margin by a angry base.

                • TheWizardOf144 June 13, 2017 at 9:01 pm

                  Depends on your threshold. Personally, I think more than 20% is pretty damn scary.

            • segmentation_fault June 13, 2017 at 8:58 pm

              And the winner of the Dem primary was a coastal elitist?

              “”Northam’s roots are definitely conservative in a state that adores its traditions. He grew up on the rural Eastern Shore, separated from mainland Virginia by the Chesapeake Bay. The county was still poor enough that Northam didn’t play basketball on hardwood until high school. His father was a commonwealth’s attorney and a county judge, but Northam‘s upbringing wasn’t particularly political.”

              “He was bound for the Virginia Military Institute, a deeply conservative—and physically demanding—institution that had produced 15 Confederate generals. Northam tried to quit during his Thanksgiving break freshman year, but his father wouldn’t let him. “Even if you were brought up in a pretty disciplined environment, it’s nothing compared to VMI,” said Mike Strickler, a long-time VMI spokesman who is backing Northam’s bid for governor. Northam went on to lead the prestigious Honor Corps and was a battalion commander, essentially the second-highest ranking cadet. “The whole process is to break you down, and build you back up with the rest of your class,” Northam says.””
              http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/tom-perriello-ralph-northam-virginia-governors-race-donald-trump-215025


              En Marche! Make our planet great again!

            • krazen1211 June 13, 2017 at 9:11 pm

              Virginia seems to be in this odd holding pattern where we are guaranteed to lose almost all statewide contests until the left gets power and goes full tax and spend Maryland style.

              Outside of 2009…I believe we have been shut out since about 2004 or so.

              Best case for Gillespie is a low turnout sneak attack similar to 2014.

              • bluewahoo June 13, 2017 at 9:13 pm

                In 2005 the AG and Lt Governor spots were won by the GOP.

                • edtorres04 June 13, 2017 at 9:15 pm

                  Only last. Cycle was bad when we had terrible candidates

    • Indy1975a June 13, 2017 at 11:41 pm

      Not with a R (even with one other than Trump) in the White House. But I don’t think Gillespie is going to win either, and I’m not sure that he’s going to do better than Stewart.

      Same thing on the D side. Northam seems like the safer choice for the Ds, but he’s known to be a lazy campaigner, and I think his margin will be less than Perriello would have gotten.


      Independent, R until November 2016

  • edtorres04 June 13, 2017 at 8:39 pm

    My analogy comparing Bob Franks to Ed Gillespie looks realistic?

    • TheWizardOf144 June 13, 2017 at 8:40 pm

      Yep.

    • Izengabe June 13, 2017 at 8:50 pm

      No! That’s an insult to Bret Schundler.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • edtorres04 June 13, 2017 at 8:52 pm

        Schundler lost big in the general

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 8:53 pm

          Yes, but that’s also because rich suburban “Scarsdale” Republicans abandoned the GOP after they realized Schundler, a big education reform advocate, might make their kids go to school with minorities.

          That needless to say, is not the problem Corey Stewart faces in a general.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • lordpet8 June 13, 2017 at 9:16 pm

      Though Bob Franks did get into the race a tad late and seemed a bit reluctant to enter (initially saying he would not be candidate)

  • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 8:40 pm

    Platt is up by a single vote in Arlington…


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • segmentation_fault June 13, 2017 at 8:45 pm

    I wonder if Trump will start getting involved in downballot GOP primaries. Obama did so in downballot Dem primaries while president. If Trump would have endorsed Stewart he would be winning.


    En Marche! Make our planet great again!

  • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 9:04 pm

    One thing working in Gillespie’s favor: he’s doing really well (56%) in Lynchburg, and Liberty U’s huge precinct hasn’t reported yet.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • segmentation_fault June 13, 2017 at 9:06 pm

      Lynchburg outside of Liberty is actually liberal.


      En Marche! Make our planet great again!

    • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 9:22 pm

      The Liberty U precinct reported. It was 18 votes for Gillespie, 6 votes for Stewart, 2 votes for Wagner. It’s summer. Most of them aren’t there.


      Dem NC-11

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 9:06 pm

    There actually isn’t a huge geographic divide in most of the map. Gillespie only won Loudoun County 45-43. Corey Stewart only won say, Shenandoah County (next to West Virginia) 49-45.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • edtorres04 June 13, 2017 at 9:16 pm

    Wasserman calls it for Vogal

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 9:17 pm

    As another observation, Corey Stewart is doing better than Donald Trump did. Trump got 34% of the vote. Gillespie’s vote is roughly equivalent to Rubio + Kasich (since Rubio got 32% and Kasich got 10%). Though I do know Rubio-Stewart voters.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 9:18 pm

    Perriello is getting 80% in Charlottesville.


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • lordpet8 June 13, 2017 at 9:19 pm

    Just curious, but what do you think would have happened if the GOP had a caucus instead of primary today?
    Would Ed have run away with an easy nomination?

  • sentinelrules June 13, 2017 at 9:21 pm

    Ok,
    Prince William almost 100% in.
    2 precincts left.

  • sentinelrules June 13, 2017 at 9:24 pm

    Gillespie has a 2,600 vote lead there.

    http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/elections/webreports/rep_resu0617.pdf

  • RogueBeaver June 13, 2017 at 9:26 pm

    Wasserman calls it for Gillespie. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/874799563659513861


    MTL/Blue Tory/M

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 9:29 pm

      Probably the best-case outcome. A shot across the VA GOP’s bow telling them to wake the **** up, though not actually hitting their ship and immediately sinking it.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • Greyhound June 13, 2017 at 9:40 pm

        You mean people aren’t jumping out of their seats to vote for a Boring White Conservative? You don’t say!


        R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 9:48 pm

          But he’s not even TRYING to be fun. Like a smart candidate would have done something like saying “yeah, the league of the south is bad; white supremacy is terrible and we need to disavow it harder. also, liberals are totally orwellian on the RE Lee thing and we need to stop them from white-washing history, even if some of it is bad/racist. and I’m going to stop this.” and then pivoted to other stuff.

          What establishment conservatives go is “actually, I bet my constituents will care WAY more about cutting top marginal tax rates by 1%. And liberals are all right about all every divisive social issue anyways because I’m afraid of being called racist.”


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • rdelbov June 13, 2017 at 9:30 pm

      yup just as I expected–margin is a surprise to me.

  • edtorres04 June 13, 2017 at 9:26 pm

    Wasserman calls it for ed

  • edtorres04 June 13, 2017 at 9:34 pm

    Now that it’s been called, we actually have a very strong ticket.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 13, 2017 at 9:35 pm

      No one who almost gets clocked by a totally unfunded candidate like Corey Stewart should be considered a strong candidate.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • indocon June 13, 2017 at 9:41 pm

        IMMIGRATION…..the issue that will not go away.

      • LtNOWIS June 13, 2017 at 10:12 pm

        He’s the strongest we have. The bench is non-existent after 2013.


        28, VA-11

    • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 9:38 pm

      It’ll be a lot stronger if Republicans actually vote in November. Right now there are 485545 votes in the D primary and 343967 votes in the R primary with most unreported districts being heavily D.


      Dem NC-11

      • krazen1211 June 13, 2017 at 10:00 pm

        The size of the primary vote might tell us nothing. R candidates got many more votes in the March 1 primary last year. Didn’t do much in November.

        • rdelbov June 13, 2017 at 10:15 pm

          Yup when I commented last year on how important it was that R turnout exceeded turnout in many primaries our D posters either ignored it or thought it meant nothing.

          Now that D turnout finally exceeds R turnout in a primary oh my goodness it means something.

          • HS June 13, 2017 at 10:19 pm

            Where have you been today? The usual crew has been their usual pessimistic selves. We needed you. 😉

          • kewgardens June 13, 2017 at 10:19 pm

            Except that it DID mean something in 2016, based on the results in November.

            That does not bode well for the GOP going forward.

          • roguemapper June 13, 2017 at 11:19 pm

            Well, you were obviously right about the enthusiasm gap last year so do you feel better about VA now that I’ve acknowledged that?


            Dem NC-11

    • sentinelrules June 13, 2017 at 9:38 pm

      Prediction:

      Fewer than 5 months from now, between 7pm-8:30pm ET, it will look good….then around 9pm ET, Lucy takes away the football.

  • Tekzilla June 13, 2017 at 9:49 pm

    Early initial guess would be Northam 54-46% in the general for 2 party vote, maybe a smidge closer if certain things happen.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • HoneyBee June 13, 2017 at 11:26 pm

      Simply ridiculous, you expect Gillespie to do 8 points worse than he did against the most popular politician in the state and 3 points worse than Donald Trump did in Virginia?!?

      You also probably thought Hillary would win by about 8 nationally though, my guess would be.


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

      • fzw June 13, 2017 at 11:46 pm

        The polls may be off again, but Northam is up by that margin in the polls right now, and the incumbent President might just change the calculus about traditional off-year elections. Notice how he is hovering around high-50’s (even reached 60 in Gallup today) in disapproval, and I think you can see how a comparison to the 2014 midterm or even November 2016 might not be appropriate


        NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
        #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

        • Boehnerwasright June 13, 2017 at 11:54 pm

          I think 8 is on the high side but not that unreasonable. Fundamentals are quite good for Northam. Outgoing Dem-Gov. is popular, trump is toxic. Virgina is moving to the left and the dem base is fired up (really high turnout for the primary).

          Gillespie barely won the primary and stewart doesn’t look likely to endorse Gillespie and may even try to get a recount and be a nuisance in the general election. Yes gillespie came close in 2014, but a lot can change in 3 years and a run for state office is different than federal office.

  • segmentation_fault June 13, 2017 at 9:58 pm

    It’s done. Northam wins by 12 and Gillespie wins by 1. Democrats cast 536,500 votes and Republicans cast 364,000 votes.


    En Marche! Make our planet great again!

  • MosheM June 13, 2017 at 10:02 pm

    The Post effect? I’m told Perriello’s own internal numbers showed a 12-point dip in the week after the Washington Post backed Northam late.

    https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/874802117705445377


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • segmentation_fault June 13, 2017 at 10:04 pm

      And yet the Republican candidate endorsed by The Failing Washington Post, Frank Wagner, did no better in the DC media market than in the rest of the state. Not surprising I guess.


      En Marche! Make our planet great again!

      • HS June 13, 2017 at 10:10 pm

        Because Post readers are Democrats. They would have to be at this point, with how ridiculous the paper has become.

        I am guessing that they endorsed Wagner in the hope it would harm Gillespie.

        • LtNOWIS June 13, 2017 at 10:31 pm

          Don’t under-estimate their monomaniacal focus on transportation.


          28, VA-11

          • Son_of_the_South June 13, 2017 at 11:51 pm

            Hey, I lost your email. Could you send it to me at jsdarr1@gmail.com?


            23, R, DC-AL
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Indy1975a June 13, 2017 at 11:49 pm

      I believe it. In 2009, the Post swung the D nomination to Creigh Deeds with their surprise endorsement of him. If Perriello got the endorsement, my guess is that he would have won northern Virginia. But he still would have had trouble without doing better among blacks in Richmond and SE Virginia.


      Independent, R until November 2016

  • shamlet June 13, 2017 at 10:22 pm

    Here’s a funny one: Banker Mavis Taintor (D), who self-funded a $175K warchest for an uphill run in northern Loudon’s LD-33, has lost the primary 52-48.


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Izengabe June 13, 2017 at 11:25 pm

      Who would spend $175K of their own money to run to be a minority member of the VA House of Delegates?


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Conservative First June 13, 2017 at 11:50 pm

    Nevada election results
    http://elections.clarkcountynv.gov/ElectionResults/ENR.aspx

    • fzw June 13, 2017 at 11:53 pm

      So a wash on LV City Council with a Democrat beating Beers and Fiore picking up the open seat


      NY-23 from MO-3. Soon to be RI-1.
      #MADGA (Make a Divided Government Again)

    • Son_of_the_South June 13, 2017 at 11:54 pm

      Weird. Fiore won, but Beers lost.


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • roguemapper June 14, 2017 at 12:09 am

        Those weren’t the final numbers though I don’t know how much of the vote is still out.


        Dem NC-11

  • StatenIslandTest June 14, 2017 at 12:06 am

    This shouldnt have been close on the R side and I think this is at
    least lean D in November. We now know for sure which side in any D civil war VA will be on after this!


    31, Jersey City

    • Son_of_the_South June 14, 2017 at 12:26 am

      Stay classy, Corey!


      23, R, DC-AL
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

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