Political Roundup for June 14, 2017

Last night in Virginia, the Governor nominees weren’t surprising, but their margins were. LG Ralph Northam (D) prevailed by a surprisingly robust 12 points, while ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie (R) squeaked to a 1-point victory over Prince William CE and self-hating Yankee Corey Stewart. For LG, 2013 AG candidate Justin Fairfax (D) and State Sen. Jill Vogel (D) will face off. There were no particular surprises in the House of Delegates primaries, with one minor exception: Banker Mavis Taintor (D), who self-funded an insane $175K (!) for her bid in Loudon County’s LD-33, lost her primary 52-48 to a more traditionally-spending candidate. Hopefully for her Taintor self-funded most of that cash as a loan rather than a gift. In Las Vegas, Steve Seroka (D) ousted incumbent Bob Beers (R) for council district 2 while ex-State Rep. Michele Fiore (R) picked up the open district 6.

Senate:

IN-Sen: State Rep. Mike Braun (R), who is in his second term representing a rural Southwestern Indiana seat, will explore a run against Sen. Joe Donnelly (D). Braun is the first candidate to definitively declare interest in this race, but is definitely well into the “C” list. Three far bigger names, Reps. Luke Messer (R) and Todd Rokita (R) and AG Curtis Hill (R), are thought to be considering the race, and it’s hard to see Braun as any kind of threat to them in the primary.

TN-Sen: Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) announced last week that she would not challenge Sen. Bob Corker (R) in 2018, though she has not shut the door on a gubernatorial bid. Corker has announced he would not run for Governor, but has not firmly declared whether he will seek a third term in the Senate. Presumably Blackburn’s Senate calculations would change if the seat were to come open.

UT-Sen: The Romney for Senate speculation machine continues to churn, as Mitt has announced he remain active in politics by forming a SuperPAC designed to help House Republicans in 2018. Biden has encouraged Romney to run for the seat of Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), and Romney did nothing to brush away that suggestion when the two appeared together last week.

Governor:

AL-Gov: Medical technology executive Josh Jones (R) is the latest candidate into this increasingly crowded primary. Jones joins (deep breath) Ag Commissioner John McMillan (R), PSC Chair Twinkle Cavanaugh (R), Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle (R), Jefferson County commissioner David Carrington (R), and minister Scott Dawson (R) in the race. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) has not indicated whether or not she will seek a full term and says she may not make an announcement until the fall.

FL-Gov: Now here’s something you don’t see every day: A prospective Democratic candidate holding a fundraiser for a prospective Republican rival. But that’s exactly what wealthy ambulance-chasing trail lawyer John Morgan (D) is doing for State House Speaker Rich Corcoran (R). Morgan, a staunch booster of medical marijuana, is holding the fundraiser as thanks to Corcoran for his work in making the state’s medical pot statute more permissive. Though neither has declared for the gubernatorial race yet, both men have said they are actively exploring bids. Morgan would join ex-Rep. Gwen Graham (D), Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D), and businessman Chris King (D) on the Dem side. Corcoran would join Ag Commissioner Adam Putnam (R) in the GOP primary, with Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) also considering.

MI-Gov: Businessman Shri Thanedar (D) is the latest candidate to officially enter this race. Thanedar has indicated he will partially self-fund; he will face ex-State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D), businessman Bill Cobbs (D), and Detroit official Abul El-Sayed (D) in the Dem primary, with Macomb CE Mark Hackel (D) the biggest name still considering a run. On the GOP side, LG Brian Calley (R), AG Bill Schuete (R), and State Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R) look like the major possible contenders.

PA-Gov: Businessman Kris Hart (R), who had been exploring a run for US Senate, will instead seek the nomination to challenge Gov. Tom Wolf (D). Hart joins State Sen. Scott Wagner (R) and businessman Paul Mango (R) in the race, with State House Speaker Mike Turzai (R) and ex-LG Jim Cawley (R) considering runs as well.

RI-Gov: Republicans have their first candidate making serious moves toward challenging Gov. Gina Raimondo (D). Ex-State Rep. Joe Trillo (R), who retired in 2016, is preparing a run and seems to be staking out a position as a Trumpist, which might be a questionable strategy in the deep-blue state. Cranston Mayor and 2014 nominee Alan Fung (R) is widely thought likely to make another bid, and a couple other Republicans are considering. The fiscally moderate Raimondo may face a significant primary challenge from her left as well, though no Democrats have made concrete moves toward the race yet.

House:

CO-2: 2014 SoS nominee and Hickenlooper admin official Joe Neguse (D) announced a bid for Congress Tuesday, and quickly secured several prominent endorsements, including from ex-State House Speaker Dickey Lee Hullinghorst (D). Two other Dems, 2000 CO-6 nominee Ken Toltz (D) and executive Shannon Watts (D), who are both also prominent gun-control activists, are also publicly considering the race.

GA-6: A SUSA poll shows the race between ex-SoS Karen Handel (R) and Han Solo impersonator former congressional staffer Jon Ossoff (D) tied at 47, a significant improvement for Handel from their prior poll, where Ossoff led by 7 points. The closely-watched runoff for this seat is this coming Tuesday.

NC-9: Megachurch pastor and 2016 candidate Mark Harris (R) is resigning to consider another congressional run. Harris fell just short by 135 votes in a three-way race against Rep. Robert Pittenger (R). Pittenger has had multiple controversies related to questionable business dealings and making racist remarks on national TV, so there is a strong possibility he could be vulnerable to a primary in 2018; he is also high on retirement watchlists.

NH-1: State Sen. Andy Sanborn (R) announced Tuesday that he would run against on-again/off-again Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) in this purple seat. Sanborn, known as a staunch conservative with libertarian tendencies, joins former local police chief Eddie Edwards (R) in the GOP primary.

NY-22: State Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) is considering a run against Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) in 2018. Brindisi considered a run for the open seat, and was heavily recruited by national Dems, in 2016 before deciding not to run. This formerly light-red seat moved strongly right in 2016, but the conservative Tenney fell short of a majority, winning 47-40 in a 3-way race.

OH-2: Jerry Springer (D) has been floated for multiple offices by Ohio Democrats in recent years, including for this cycle’s Governor race. But it seems he may have a different seat in mind, as someone has apparently been polling Springer against Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R). This deep-red Cincinnati-area seat would likely be a tough hill to climb for Springer or any other Democrat.

TN-6: Prominent pro-Trump talking head Scottie Nell Hughes (R), who also runs a pro-Trump press group, will consider a run for this deep-red central Tennessee seat if Rep. Diane Black (R) gives it up to run for Governor. Hughes, the first candidate to publicly declare interest in the seat, has said that she would not challenge Black in the primary.

WI-6: Nonprofit exec Dan Kohl (D), nephew of ex-Sen. Herb (D), will challenge Rep. Glenn Grothman (R) for this medium-red seat stretching from the northern Milwaukee suburbs to Oshkosh.

State & Local:

AL-AG: Former US Attorney Alice Martin (R), who also served as chief deputy to now-Sen. Luther Strange (R) when he was AG, will run for the AG slot in 2018. Martin will face appointed incumbent Steve Marshall (R), whose appointment by disgraced then-Gov. Robert Bentley (R) may be problematic for his chances of keeping the seat. However, Martin may find hitting Marshall on his Bentley ties problematic herself, as she interviewed for the appointment as well.

CA-LG: Ex-Richmond Mayor Gayle McLaughlin (G), who for her eight years from 2006-2014 made Richmond by far the largest city with a Green Party Mayor, will run for LG in 2018. McLaughlin’s odds are probably long with several prominent Dems in the race, but she has a chance to stake out a position as the farthest-left candidate in an already-left-wing field. McLaughlin will face State Sen. Ed Hernandez (D), former Ambassadors Eleni Kounalakis (D) and Jeff Bleich (D), and physician Asif Mahmood (D), and likely others, in this race.

FL-Ag Comm: Ex-State Rep. Baxter Troutman (R) is running for Ag Commissioner, becoming the fourth Republican into this primary. Troutman joins State Sen. Denise Grimsley (R), State Rep. Matt Caldwell (R), and 2015 Orlando Mayoral candidate Paul Paulson (R) in the race.

FL-CFO: CFO Jeff Atwater (R) will resign on June 30th to take an academic position. Gov. Rick Scott (R) is tasked with appointing his replacement. One possible appointee took his name out of the running this week though, as State Sen. Jack Latvala (R) announced he was not interested in being appointed. The move probably means Latvala is considering his 2018 options as running for Governor and bowing out of politics entirely.

KS-SoS: Sedgwick County Clerk and KSGOP chair Kelly Arnold (R) is the first person to consider a run for the open seat of SoS Kris Kobach (R), who is running for Governor. With his base in the Wichita area and institutional ties, Arnold would likely be a formidable candidate for the seat.

NM-LG: Ex-State Rep. Rick Miera (D), the former House Majority leader until his 2014 retirement, will explore a run for LG in this shotgun-wedding primary. Miera joins two little-known candidates, civil servant David McTeigue (D) and teacher Jeff Carr (D), in the Dem primary race, and thus would seem to be the front-runner. The primary winner will be combined on a ticket with the winner of the (entirely separate) Gov primary.

Mobile-Mayor: Ex-Mayor Sam Jones (D) will kick off a run to get his old job back this Saturday. Jones served two terms as Mayor before losing his 2013 to re-election race to now-incumbent Sandy Stimpson (R). Jones will likely face a rematch with Stimpson in this year’s race, in late August.

CA-SD-29: Legislative Democrats are pushing bills to delay the state’s recall process in order to help State Sen. Josh Newman (D). Newman won a formerly-red Orange County seat in 2016 in a considerable upset and is now the target of a recall campaign by Republicans upset with his vote for a recent tax hike. The bills under consideration would slow down the recall process so that a successful Newman recall effort would be unlikely to trigger an election before the 2018 general election.

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78 Comments

  • rdelbov June 14, 2017 at 7:52 am

    I think the GOP starts behind in VA Gov race- but not too far behind but behind. Going to be a long campaign.

    • OGGoldy June 14, 2017 at 7:55 am

      We are less than 5 months to election day. The campaign can’t go on THAT long. 🙂

    • andyroo312 June 14, 2017 at 8:35 am

      I like Gillespie but I see the race as Likely D. Skeptical the Stewart supporters will wholeheartedly come around to someone so establishmenty.


      MA-7

      • rdelbov June 14, 2017 at 8:58 am

        Gillespie did have this advantage-because he was the perceived front runner and was leading in nearly every poll he more or less ignored Stewart and played nice. In other words he ran a positive campaign focused on his qualifications and ran against the democrats. IMO there is no doubt the GOP will be united around Gillespie come November 2017. I certainly think one reason he trails in polls now it the Stewart question. Some Rs and some conservative indies are with holding votes in polls-IMO they will not in a GE.

        As I noted before once a nominee in a GOP primary is selected the party will unite and will turn out.

        I for one am skeptical that Northam will excite the D base. As I said about 2016 IMO the turnout problem in 2017 will a matter for the Ds to handle.

  • edtorres04 June 14, 2017 at 7:55 am

    My God Steve Scalise has been shot in the hip.

  • edtorres04 June 14, 2017 at 7:59 am

    Senator Mike Lee said that a staffer of Scalise was shot in the chest.

    Also Lee says that someone use their belt to assist in stopping the bleeding of Rep Scalise. Supposedly there were over 50 shots fired.

  • edtorres04 June 14, 2017 at 8:01 am

    The shooting occured in Alexandria, VA.

    The shooter is dead according to Mike Lee.

  • MosheM June 14, 2017 at 8:13 am

    Mo Brooks says on CNN that Ohio Rep. Brad Wenstrup, a physician, help tend to Scalise after he was hit with gunfire.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Greyhound June 14, 2017 at 8:14 am

      Well, this is one upside to having a large number of doctors in our caucus.


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

  • MosheM June 14, 2017 at 8:14 am

    Brooks describes suspect as a middle aged white male


    28, M, R, NY-10

  • roguemapper June 14, 2017 at 8:16 am

    Most of the #Resistance types would be doing good if they’re able to hit the ballpark, much less the congressman.


    Dem NC-11

    • Upstater22 June 14, 2017 at 8:21 am

      50 shots, 3 hits. Sounds about right.


      Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

      • Son_of_the_South June 14, 2017 at 8:26 am

        The shooter hit 4.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • roguemapper June 14, 2017 at 8:29 am

          I see reports of 5. And also this:

          @rebeccagberg

          The man was wearing running clothes, asked [Jeff] Duncan: “Are those Republicans or Democrats out there practicing?” Per source familiar.


          Dem NC-11

          • Greyhound June 14, 2017 at 8:31 am

            Well, we were long overdue for an assassination attempt. It’s been too long since the last one, and tensions are far too high.


            R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

            • Son_of_the_South June 14, 2017 at 8:34 am

              That’s what I was thinking. Centrifugal politics gets you stuff like this.


              24, R, TN-09
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • californianintexas June 14, 2017 at 3:49 pm

              It is sad. We shouldn’t have assassination attempts on anyone. Gabby Giffords and Steve Scalise were 2 too many.


              34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

          • MosheM June 14, 2017 at 8:34 am

            Looks like upstater was right…


            28, M, R, NY-10

            • roguemapper June 14, 2017 at 8:36 am

              Most likely, though it’s possible the shooter was going to do it either way and was just curious to know which it was. It’s also possible Hunter isn’t identifying the correct man. It’s tough to hide a rifle in running clothes…


              Dem NC-11

          • Son_of_the_South June 14, 2017 at 8:34 am

            Yes, but the 5th is the shooter.


            24, R, TN-09
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • rdelbov June 14, 2017 at 8:20 am

    Another big day of early voting in GA6—111,230 votes cast. The general MSM consensus after the April election was that Ds stormed the polls and Rs stayed home. The only chance that the GOP had would be a bigger turnout. Now the early vote is huge, relative to April numbers, and apparently Rs are really turning out. The general MSM consensus, if you can find anyone commenting on the early vote at all, is that the GOP ground game is cannibalizing its vote.

  • MosheM June 14, 2017 at 8:26 am

    Rand Paul, a witness of shooting, tells MSNBC “everyone would have died” if Scalise, leadership member with extra security, hadn’t been there.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • MosheM June 14, 2017 at 8:27 am

      Paul describes rifle with hundreds of bullets, would have been a “massacre” if gunman hadn’t been taken down.


      28, M, R, NY-10

  • andyroo312 June 14, 2017 at 8:32 am

    Geez.


    MA-7

  • Upstater22 June 14, 2017 at 8:37 am

    The Left is violent. Always has been, always will be. Because it takes the violence of the state to implement their agenda. All the violence occuring on campuses, all the rioting, just a symptom of being a leftist.


    Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

    • Tekzilla June 15, 2017 at 12:36 am

      This is incredibly sad to read.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • roguemapper June 14, 2017 at 8:44 am

    @ChadPergram

    #BREAKING TX Rep Roger Williams head of baseball caucus was hit and taken off in stretcher. Sen Jeff Flake was at bat


    Dem NC-11

    • edtorres04 June 14, 2017 at 8:46 am

      Was he hurt? What’s the prognosis?

      • roguemapper June 14, 2017 at 8:49 am

        I don’t see anything further but I’ll venture a very tentative guess that if this report is correct and he wasn’t immediately identified as injured then he was probably down on the ground and unresponsive.


        Dem NC-11

        • MosheM June 14, 2017 at 8:51 am

          CNN is showing footage of Rep. Roger Williams hobbling onto a stretcher.


          28, M, R, NY-10

    • MaxwellsDemon June 14, 2017 at 8:50 am

      His office is saying he wasnt hit, I think he may have injured himself jumping into the dugout

      • roguemapper June 14, 2017 at 8:51 am

        Ah, that makes sense. Early reports are always dicey of course.


        Dem NC-11

        • Upstater22 June 14, 2017 at 8:56 am

          Fox News reporting Williams shot. But again, dicey.


          Conservative, because facts are more important than feelings

  • shamlet June 14, 2017 at 8:58 am

    Please take shooting discussion to the new OT.


    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • RogueBeaver June 14, 2017 at 10:03 am

    NJ-Q: Murphy +29, Christie at 81% (!) disapproval. https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2465


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • krazen1211 June 14, 2017 at 11:18 am

      I am hopeful for a Florio style tax revolt in NJ in 2018/19.

  • Republican Michigander June 14, 2017 at 11:32 am

    “””self-hating Yankee Corey Stewart”” – LOL.

    Although I always considered Duluth more Midwest and/or German/Scandinavian than “Yankee.”


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 14, 2017 at 1:44 pm

      As a random fact, Stewart’s wife is also Swedish. So he’s really got that Minnesota street cred.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • jncca June 14, 2017 at 11:44 am

    https://www.voterstudygroup.org/reports/2016-elections/political-divisions-in-2016-and-beyond

    Long but good read here.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • Republican Michigander June 14, 2017 at 12:33 pm

      Interesting read although I wish they had more specifics.

      “””” Among populists who voted for Obama, Clinton did terribly. She held onto only 6 in 10 of these voters (59 percent). Trump picked up 27 percent of these voters, and the remaining 14 percent didn’t vote for either major party candidate.”””

      I think among white populists, it was be even worse than that. Rust belt blue collar suburbs.

      “”” By contrast, Republican voters are more clearly split. For the most part, Trump and Cruz supporters look fairly similar,”””
      I’d disagree there, but that’s a split I saw on the ground here.

      “” though Cruz supporters are considerably more conservative on moral issues, and notably less concerned about inequality and the social safety net, and more pro- free trade.”””
      That part I agree.

      “”First, observe that a little more half these populists were already Romney supporters.”” – I have some doubts on that, but possible, especially with Romney’s rural vote percentage. I’d like to see the rural populist vs suburban populist numbers. Romney’s numbers were bad in Michigan over auto industry comments, so I’m possibly clouded by Michigan and Northern Ohio numbers.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • jncca June 14, 2017 at 10:04 pm

        Not all populists are in the Midwest. In the South, most populists likely voted Romney, not Obama, unlike in a place like Downriver Wayne County.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • Indy1975a June 14, 2017 at 6:01 pm

      Figure 8 is especially interesting. That plot suggests that Obama/Trump voters are substantially less conservative than other Trump voters on economic inequality, Social Security, cultural/moral issues, and the role of government. They agreed with other Trump voters on patriotism, race, and immigration.

      This fits very much with the secular white working class, which went R in the 1970s and 1980s, when the Ds were associated with policies that were soft on crime, soft on communism, and overly supportive of poor minorities. They moved to the Ds in 1990s until 2014, when the Ds became tougher on crime and welfare, and they saw the Rs as the party of the rich, cuts to gov’t benefits, and the religious right (whom the secular white working class doesn’t particularly care for). Trumpism is far more attractive to them than the establishment Rs, and that shift was further strengthened by strong dislike of SJWs (who are comparable to your 1960s far left anti-war types).


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 14, 2017 at 6:41 pm

      I think the most telling takeaway is that the voters for both candidates mostly 1) were fairly patriotic, 2) think politics is rigged, 3) hate our trade deals, 4) support Medicare/Social Security, and 5) believe America is in decline. And even a huge minority of Republicans worry about income equality.

      Of course, the “path back to the power” that establishment conservatives have repeatedly pushed is for the GOP to line up against the voters of both Donald Trump AND Hillary Clinton on all of these issues. Surely, that’s what will win minority voters for the GOP!


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Greyhound June 14, 2017 at 10:12 pm

      Honestly, the most interesting thing here is that by their definition, 45% of American counts as Liberal on both social and economic issues. “Conservatives” and “Populists” make up about equal parts of the remaining group, with “Libertarians” close to, well, Gary Johnson’s share of the vote.

      I think it’s actually a rather good demonstration of how Trump found the Democrat’s weakspot (Populist voters) and ran with it. There’s basically no voters left that hold Conservative economic view who aren’t already voting for the GOP.


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 14, 2017 at 10:18 pm

        Yes, FiveThirtyEight found something similar a few years ago. Another takeaway is that conservatism died in 2008, and the GOP today is just a broad grabbag tent of everyone who opposes the dominant ideology of America (in the colleges, corporations, bureacracy, churches, and media), hardcore liberalism.

        Kinda like the Socialist Revolutionaries of Russia!


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • Greyhound June 14, 2017 at 10:37 pm

          I honestly wonder if the bailout is going to go down in history next to the Hawley-Smoot tariff in terms of conventional economic thinking of the time turning a crisis into a catastrophe.


          R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

  • rdw72777 June 14, 2017 at 12:23 pm

    NY-22 could be intriguing in a 2-way race, but for whatever reason I just think some left idiot (Green, Reform, whatever) will get in and kill any chance for a Dem to win. Dem’s can’t split a single vote here and win as this district is probably moving a bit to the right every day and neither Utica nor Binghamton are blue enough to cover Dems splitting their vote in any way.

    The GOP’s best bet to dominate upstate NY Congressional district is to somehow back-channel fund idiots like Babinec and Funnicello and other from 3rd parties of any kind to drip Dem votes away. It’s how they’ll some day inevitably take Slaughter’s district IMHO and can guarantee Stefanik and Katko survive forever (not that either of those shows any need of help electorally).

    • Manhatlibertarian June 14, 2017 at 8:04 pm

      NY 22 is one of only 3 NY CDs that went for Romney in 2012. Of course Tenney is more conservative than her predecessor, Dick Hanna, who was more of a Katko type Repub, so I’m sure she will be one of the top Dem targets in NY. Her seat would be vulnerable in a Dem wave, but if Westchester CE Astorino is the GOP Gov nominee he is likely to carry the CD which will help her.

  • RogueBeaver June 14, 2017 at 1:35 pm

    UK: Farron quits as LibDem leader. https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/875041452300042242


    QC/Blue Tory/M

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 14, 2017 at 1:55 pm

    Oh yikes, I missed the year date.

    Looks like Philly was smart then. 😛


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • sentinelrules June 14, 2017 at 4:01 pm

    Trafalgar (R), which was pretty accurate last year, says Ossoff by 3%

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitQkVYeExaaV9PczQ/view

    • prsteve11 June 14, 2017 at 4:25 pm

      Still tight as a tick.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • indocon June 14, 2017 at 5:26 pm

        Don’t buy it, the age gap does not make sense.

        • TheWizardOf144 June 14, 2017 at 5:33 pm

          Yep. Noticed the same thing.

        • prsteve11 June 14, 2017 at 5:34 pm

          I’m still holding out for a Handel victory. Georgia is one of those states the Dems always seem to get their hopes up about and then end up coming short on Election Day. It is the South, after all!


          SC-03, Conservative Republican

          • TheWizardOf144 June 14, 2017 at 5:37 pm

            I’ll be in district as of Sunday night. I’ll report my sense of things on the ground.

            • prsteve11 June 14, 2017 at 5:59 pm

              Cool – will be very interesting to learn. I saw somewhere that Ossoff was sending out the money-begging e-mails claiming he had a poll that he was down 2 points in so I think it’s pretty clear this race isn’t over.


              SC-03, Conservative Republican

              • TheWizardOf144 June 14, 2017 at 6:16 pm

                I agree. Polls say one thing but the data tells me another. Going down on my own dime to see what’s going on. Going to try to get into Handel’s victory party.

                • Manhatlibertarian June 14, 2017 at 8:41 pm

                  It is odd that this poll has Ossoff up 12.64 among early voters, yet the latest data (through June 13) from Prof McDonald has about 15,000 more GOP ballots then Dem ones (as best I can interpret McDonald’s not too clear bar graph) and maybe a few thousand more No Party ballots than GOP ones. So the only way to reconcile this, is that Ossoff must be really doing quite well among No Party early voters and getting more GOP ballots than Handel is getting Dem ballots. But yet the recent SUSA poll which showed the race tied, had Handel winning independents, which would not be consistent with Ossoff doing so well among early No Party ballots. But if I were Handel I would run scared like I was behind and really, really put everything into a massive GOP turnout on election day.

                  • TheWizardOf144 June 14, 2017 at 8:42 pm

                    I just sent her some $ today. First donation I’ve made in a while.

                  • fzw June 14, 2017 at 8:57 pm

                    Is that not what happened in Round 1? Remember that there was a tie (slight R lead actually) in the early vote at 41R-41D, and Ossoff got 64% of the early vote. Mathematically he had to have at least won 15% of Republican primary voters. Why would he do worse among Republican primary voters this time? Also, keep in mind a lot of the unaffiliateds are probably hardcore partisan Dems who are either new to the district or just decided to forego the boring Georgia Democratic primary last year


                    Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                    R-leaning Indy.

        • fzw June 14, 2017 at 6:39 pm

          I’m confused, what part of this poll doesn’t make sense? The figures for EV and “haven’t voted yet” make sense to me


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

          • TheWizardOf144 June 14, 2017 at 6:41 pm

            Seniors aren’t going to Handel by only 5pts.

            • fzw June 14, 2017 at 6:47 pm

              Ah, okay. But seniors as defined by those being 65+ are about a quarter of the electorate. She probably does have a wider lead among those voters, but I doubt it would change the topline that much. Ossoff might be ahead among non-seniors by more than 6 on the flip side of that


              Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
              R-leaning Indy.

  • TheWizardOf144 June 14, 2017 at 4:18 pm

    Anthony Weiner has an heir apparent(ly) https://t.co/eRIHH8P0H9

    • Izengabe June 14, 2017 at 8:42 pm

      No. At worst the guy was watching porn. Weiner was sexting underage children. Not the same.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • fzw June 14, 2017 at 8:58 pm

        This guy is still a pervert who’s into teenagers though, but I guess it’s not illegal unless you act on it.


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • roguemapper June 14, 2017 at 9:01 pm

          Evidently he’s into both “teens” and “milfs” so if nothing else I guess he can’t be accused of age discrimination…


          Dem NC-11

          • fzw June 14, 2017 at 9:19 pm

            LOL. But in this day and age, milfs and teens probably have some overlap too


            Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
            R-leaning Indy.

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 14, 2017 at 9:21 pm

              Teen pregnancy is actually at all time lows. Part of this is that millenials have less sex than any generation ever measured (ie silent generation onward).


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • TheWizardOf144 June 14, 2017 at 9:32 pm

                Depends on what your definition of “is” is…

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy June 14, 2017 at 9:03 pm

          Teens could in fact mean people who are 18/19, so it wouldn’t be illegal even if you act on it. And of course, the US had an abnormally high age of consent among developed countries.

          Unsurprisingly, my attitude towards politicians and their lives is very “French”.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • Jon June 14, 2017 at 10:57 pm

            age of consent is state specific within the US. Missouri is 17 with an age exception if partners are close to each other in age.
            Per the relevant wikipedia article, in 31 states it’s 16, in 7 or 8 states it’s 17, while in 11 or 12 states it’s 18. (Texas is listed as having both 17 & 18 due to two conflicting state laws.)

            Which led to some oddities with regard to Weiner (not last year’s scandal but the previous one when he was a congressman) in which it actually would have been legal in those states to actually do the deed but wasn’t to sext.


            45, M, MO-02

  • RogueBeaver June 14, 2017 at 4:19 pm

    AL-GOV: Cobb in. http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/06/ex-chief_justice_sue_bell_cobb.html


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • Tekzilla June 15, 2017 at 12:38 am

      Democrats best possible get outside of Maddox right?


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • Jon June 14, 2017 at 7:08 pm

    Were any Republican incumbents seeking reelection defeated in their primary in VA yesterday?


    45, M, MO-02

    • shamlet June 14, 2017 at 7:16 pm

      No incumbents of either side lost. No particularly notable upsets either besides the one I mentioned in LD-33.


      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • krazen1211 June 14, 2017 at 10:28 pm

    2 CCA nominations moved today…one in the 6th circuit (KY) and one in the 11th circuit (AL). So we are rolling.

    The KY guy, John Bush, has an interesting blog which is attracting attention.

    https://elephantsinthebluegrass.blogspot.com/2016/07/cruz-again-fails-to-endorse-trump.html

    This is really fair criticism tbh, but of course Cruz is on the Judiciary Committee.

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