Trump’s Performance in Different Media Markets

The media loves to talk about how Trump did horribly in “the suburbs” and how “the suburbs” may be a problem for the GOP going forward. Typically the media thinks of “the suburbs” as a monolithic group. They usually think of a very wealthy suburb full of white people who all have college degrees near a very large city. When the media thinks of suburbs, they typically don’t think of people living in suburbs of Zanesville Ohio. But the people in places like that can vote too.

 

Trump did worse than Romney in 36 media markets.

They are as follows, ordered by biggest swing against Trump (total vote margin)

Los Angeles, CA (-630,191)
San Francisco, CA (-323,521)
Salt Lake City, UT (-281,850)
Chicago, IL (-228,286)
Washington, DC-MD (-189,475)
Houston, TX (-185,897)
Boston, MA-NH (-180,626)
San Diego, CA (-165,926)
Atlanta, GA (-162,666)
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX (-127,085)
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL (-106,743)
Austin, TX (-102,615)
Seattle-Tacoma, WA (-81,342)
Phoenix, AZ (-78,897)
Sacramento, CA (-67,896)
Raleigh, NC (-46,245)
San Antonio, TX (-43,281)
El Paso, TX-NM (-39,099)
Tucson(Sierra Vista), AZ (-33,612)
Denver, CO (-29,479)
Palm Springs, CA (-28,660)
Santa Barbara, CA (-26,509)
Portland, OR (-21,817)
Fresno-Visalia, CA (-20,612)
Idaho Falls, ID (-16,215)
Harlingen, TX (-16,160)
Richmond-Petersburg, VA (-15,517)
Montery-Salinas, CA (-15,463)
Yuma-El Centro, AZ-CA (-12,337)
Charlottesville, VA (-6,503)
Bakersfield, CA (-6,228)
Gainesville, FL (-2,797)
Laredo, TX (-2,345)
Bend, OR (-2,254)
Twin Falls, ID (-369)
Odessa-Midland, TX (-65)

So basically the cities I mentioned earlier plus a couple California cities and college towns. The worst 10 by 2 party swing% rather than total vote margin were in order: Salt Lake City, San Diego, Austin, Yuma-El Centro, El Paso, Houston, Santa Barbara, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Tuscon

Trump did better than Romney in the remaining 171 media markets. These were Trump’s 10 best compared to Romney by total vote margin swing

Cleveland, OH (222,041)
Detroit, MI (203,220)
Tampa, FL (151,470)
St. Louis, MO (150,722)
New York, NY (140,949)
Wilkes Barre, PA (139,058)
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN (104,427)
Flint-Saginaw, MI (100,177)
Charleston, WV (98,707)
Buffalo, NY (97,696)

Trump’s best 10 by 2 party vote swing % in order: Zanesville OH, Wheeling WV-OH, Youngstown OH, Presque Isle ME, Ottumwa IA-MO, Watertown NY, Alpena MI, Quincy IL-MO-IA, Charleston WV, Wilkes Barre PA.

 

It turns out a lot of these places the media likes to pretend don’t exist have suburbs too! And the people in those suburbs came out hard for Trump! Trump did worse in some suburbs and better in others. And he did better overall. So no, the GOP does not have a “suburban problem”. There may be a “ultra wealthy educated suburbanite living in large media market problem” but that’s a different problem, and a much less important problem, considering the other gains Trump made.

 

I got all this data from Echelon Insights. You can get the data from them at this link. You just have to have them email it to you.

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