Political Roundup for July 10th, 2017

President:

2020: Andrew Cuomo’s name has been floated around a lot for the D 2020 nomination lately, and Politico has a piece here covering most of what the buzz is about. Basically, Cuomo’s image as the New York Italian Boy could help in wooing back the WCW voters that abandoned Clinton in droves, and his public profile has been moderate enough to not scare off Suburban Republicans still upset with Trump. There are a few problems however, most notably the Albany stench that is sure to come up in both the primary and general election, and secondly the fact that the electrified Democratic left despises him for not being enough of a true believer in Progressive causes. There’s also the problem of being a straight white male in a party that is increasingly trying to define itself around “Diversity”. A bit of an aside, but one of my D friends summarized his problems perfectly when he described him as “Another Hillary Clinton that not even Feminists will get excited about”.

Trump: Trump’s approval ratings have been on the upswing lately, as he’s up to 47-51 in the latest Fox RV Poll. This is tied for his best numbers ever with the immediately post-election “glow” (of being barely underwater), and probably has to do with Trump recently playing to his strengths—making fools out of his media critics and berating Progressives and Europeans for abandoning the Liberal values they used to cherish until recently.

Senate:

AL-Sen: In what is a completely non-scientific bit of evidence but still a bad sign, appointed senator Dr. Luther Strange (I will never get over the fact that he is a real person and a comic book villain in some kind of dimension-merging Marvel/DC crossover) has come in last place out of 6 in a recent straw poll at a candidate forum in Huntsville. Senator Strange seems to have badly mishandled the investigation into former Governor Robert Bentley, as being appointed to the Senate by the person you are investigating stinks of corruption even when handled well. Strange is still reportedly up in his own polling, but that is probably due to the fact that opposition to him has not yet coalesced around a specific candidate yet.

MO-Sen: AG Josh Hawley, who was widely considered to be all-but-in for this race after the last person considered all-but-in decided not to run, is apparently still wavering on running. Hawley was just elected last year and probably wants to avoid charges of job-hopping, but he has convinced enough of the Missouri GOP that he’s worth it regardless to generate serious buzz over his candidacy. He should probably decide quick, as if he passes Wagner might want to reconsider, as McCaskill is widely considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators in the country, and recent polling has her losing to every Republican tested.

OH-Sen: A recent poll by PPD Buckeye State Battleground has Josh Mandel (R) leading senator Sherrod Brown (D) 50-42 in a rematch of their 2012 contest. I’m a little skeptical of the poll, which gives Trump an unusually good 54-41 approval rating, but this is great news for the GOP, as Ohio was decidedly on their 2nd tier of senate targets next year, and polls showing them up that much in those is reassuring to people worried about the GOP’s chances in places like Indiana or North Dakota.

VT-Sen: Bernie Sanders has a “D” primary challenger in Jon Svitavsky, basically a some dude Democrat who is running on a platform of “Do you realize how much damage you did to Clinton by not conceding to her earlier!” Svitavsky also mentions the ongoing FBI investigation into Sander’s wife over a school she administered. Svitavsky’s entry into the race is probably going to amount to nothing, but it does highlight the interesting way in which Sanders has continued to get elected, as Vermont’s Fusion voting system allows him to win the Democratic primary and then refuse the nomination, allowing him to run as a nominal 3rd party candidate without a major D challenger in his previous two Senate campaigns.

WV-Sen: AG Patrick Morrisey is reportedly gearing up to announce his bid for Senate today at Harper’s Ferry. The location is confusing, as announcing at the Eastern tip of the WV panhandle is not a good move for a candidate is almost certainly going to be attacked for his lack of roots in the state (Morrisey is originally from New York and New Jersey, and even ran in a GOP primary for NJ-7 back in 2000). Morrisey is a more traditional Conservative candidate compared to Congressman Evan Jenkins, the other Republican currently in the race who was a Conservadem before switching to the GOP in 2013. The winner of this primary will get to face Joe Manchin in what was one of Trump’s best states last year.

Congress:

CO-5: Doug Lamborn, who has never managed to entrench himself in his Colorado Springs-based seat, has gotten another high-profile challenger in 2016 GOP Senate candidate Darryl Glenn. Glenn joins State Senator Owen Hill, who was considered Lamborn’s best challenger to date (and who is crushing the fundraising numbers), and might manage to split the sizable anyone-but-Lamborn vote between them and allow Lamborn yet another term.

MN-8: The GOP has a new candidate in this outstate Minnesota district in Pete Stauber, a St. Louis County Commissioner and former Hockey star. This seat, one of a handful that Trump won by a large margin yet returned a Democrat to congress last year, has been high on the GOP’s target list since the election, and Stauber’s entry might complicate 2014 and 2016 GOP candidate Stewart Mills’s attempt at getting a third shot. Still, “local Hockey star from the most D county in the district” is hardly a bad profile for a Minnesota Republican candidate, so color me hopeful he can wrestle this one away from the Democrats for good next year.

NJ-11: For the flipside to the above—an ancestrally Republican seat that Trump did awful in—Passiac County Freeholder John Bartlett (D) joins the increasingly crowded field in this North-Jersey Suburban seat.

State & Local:

Chris Christie: Apparently America’s least Popular Governor auditioned for sports talk radio over the weekend. Given that Christie has basically taken up trolling his state as a full-time job, I’d half expect him to spend most of his time talking about how much the Jets and Eagles suck, how the Yankees are the best team in the history of sports, and how Rocky movies are overrated.

Maine: Now this has me confused. As part of a bipartisan deal to avoid a shutdown, Maine recently voted to axe a tax hike approved by the voters last year. I have no idea how that is possible or legal, but apparently it is and Maine decided to go through with it.

Other:

Mongolia: In a surprise upset, Right-wing Populist candidate Khaltmaa Battulga has won the Mongolian presidential election runoff by a sizeable margin. Battulga ran on a vaguely Trump-esque nationalist platform, and is rumored to be considering shifting away from China and towards Russia politically.

G-20: The horrific display made by the “Antifa” protestors at G-20 (which continued even after all the leaders had left) has some Germans asking why their police forces weren’t prepared to handle the rioting, looting, and burning that dominated the news headlines of the event. This might be a political headache for Merkel ahead of the German election later this year, where she is hoping to be able to earn a majority outside of the current “Grand Coalition”.

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163 Comments

  • roguemapper July 10, 2017 at 7:26 am

    Steve Pearce (NM-02) will run for governor: https://www.abqjournal.com/1030705/pearce-to-run-for-governor-of-new-mexico.html


    Dem NC-11

    • bluewahoo July 10, 2017 at 7:46 am

      This would be a pretty logical race for Ds to target now? Definitely far from a safe hold.

      • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 7:50 am

        R+6 is pretty safe. Dems have only one Rep in an R+6 or more district (Collin Peterson in R+12) and GOP has only one Rep in a D+6 disrtict (Carlos Curbelo D+6). Both of those are anomalies who have personal appeal in their districts.


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

        • rdelbov July 10, 2017 at 8:01 am

          I suspect NM2 will stay GOP in 2018. Unless we nominate a really poor candidate

    • RRR July 10, 2017 at 9:12 am

      Take further discussion to the front-page.


      PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
      More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

  • roguemapper July 10, 2017 at 7:32 am

    The Fox News poll isn’t a job approval poll. It’s a personal favorability poll. It’s also an outlier: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html#polls


    Dem NC-11

  • bluewahoo July 10, 2017 at 7:47 am

    re: maine

    What’s the point of referendums if none of them are followed through on? IRV voting, and now this?

    • Ryan_in_SEPA July 10, 2017 at 8:59 am

      They are not referendums, but indirectly initiated state statutes: https://ballotpedia.org/Indirect_initiated_state_statute

      Maine does not have a citizens initiated constitutional amendment process. All referendums must be initiated by the legislature.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • MosheM July 10, 2017 at 10:37 am

        Thanks!


        29, M, R, NY-10

      • w920us July 10, 2017 at 10:47 am

        Wait, so all of the idiotic gun control referendums (referenda?) were self inflicted wounds from Maine Legislative Democrats?

        I mean all they have served to do was drive out gun owners in droves to vote Republican in that state.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 8:02 am

    Christie is such a disappointment because he actually did some good things as Governor. He was a Conservative who had bipartisan appeal. He was the first pro-life Governor in New Jersey since Roe v Wade. He reformed pensions (not enough, but a good start), expanded charter schools, significantly cut taxes on business, capped property tax growth, eliminated the death tax and balanced the budget. But that corrupt bridgegate scandal and his damaging behavior since has ruined his reputation even though he has a good record.


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • andyroo312 July 10, 2017 at 8:26 am

      Oh yeah, I ADORED Christie during his first term. But he’ll forever be on my shitlist now.


      MA-7

      • HS July 10, 2017 at 10:08 am

        I think Christie’s problems can all be traced to his unbelievable narcissism. Even for a politician, he is bad. The guy scheduled a special state election on a separate date from his own re-election just to avoid seeing his margin shrink somewhat. He helped no other Republicans, even when most would have done so to get their future support.

        It’s actually sad how he destroyed himself. Like you guys, I originally really liked him.

        • MikeFL July 10, 2017 at 12:15 pm

          100% agree on the narcissism. He showboated at the RNC in 2012 after turning down probably the only chance we had at beating Obama that year. Then we all know the kamikaze mission he did on Rubio during the primary, when it looked like Rubio was the only person who could stop Trump (when Trump was perceived to be unelectable). Not to mention all the Bridgegate stuff.


          26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

        • californianintexas July 10, 2017 at 12:45 pm

          Even I, as a liberal back then, really liked him.


          34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

          • Ryan_in_SEPA July 10, 2017 at 1:04 pm

            He was more popular than God in New Jersey at one point.


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

        • Izengabe July 10, 2017 at 2:40 pm

          @HS Chrisite did work hard to elect GOP to state Assembly & Senate in 2011. Only problem was the D gerrymander was pretty much bulletproof. GOP won over 50% of the vote yet GOP only won 40% of seats despite Democrats natural vote sinks in places like Newark and Trenton. After 2011 Christie (and everyone else) realized it was impossible to beat the gerrymander.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • StatenIslandTest July 10, 2017 at 5:41 pm

            He was great the first year and decent most of the first term. His first fatal mistake was having the GOP map overprotect his Hudson County Democratic ally Brian Stack. That had a domino effect.

            He had an opportunity even with the bad map to win a GOP legislature in 2013. But by then he was convinced playing nice with LaCosaNorcross would help him and ditched helping the GOP in right-trending South Jersey. That significantly narrowed the map.

            The Democrats’ legislative win in 2013 cemented their blood-thirsty nature to get Christie at all costs, particularly ones like John Wisniewski who werent in the Norcross sphere. Thus when Bridgegate came, bad as it was, it blew up in Christie’s face.


            31, Jersey City

          • HS July 10, 2017 at 5:56 pm

            He claims that, but what did he really do? And unlike the other examples, having a GOP legislature would have helped him directly.

    • krazen1211 July 10, 2017 at 10:42 am

      I think people on our side will look back at Christie better in 3 years when Dems start unloading tax increases. He is much better than say that traitor Christie Whitman or any other governor in NJ in the last 30 years.

      Obviously he wore out his welcome but he didn’t do anything so bad as to deserve this 15% approval he has.

      • HS July 10, 2017 at 12:37 pm

        I am sure they will.

        However, I wouldn’t count on Christie not “turning traitor.” I assume you are referring to Whitman endorsing Dems for President? Christie will likely follow in her footsteps, post Trump. And if he burns his ties to Trump, he could easily endorse a Democrat earlier. It is all about him, after all, and one way to move up his polling is to be “bipartisan.” Even former public officials want to be liked.

      • w920us July 10, 2017 at 1:36 pm

        The number of massive tax increases coming down the pike in NJ next year is frightening.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • Izengabe July 10, 2017 at 2:07 pm

        @Krazen Christie’s not a traitor?
        I give you exhibit A:
        https://marinevetforfreedom.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/christie-obama.jpg

        and exhibit B:
        http://www.mediaite.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/trump-christie.jpg


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 2:10 pm

          The Obama hug was a bipartisan moment after a natural disaster. And if supporting Trump makes you a traitor, well more than half of our party is traitors as Trump had >50% support as people started to drop out. And Trump won, so it worked out fine.


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • krazen1211 July 10, 2017 at 4:59 pm

            Christie might be Vice President now if Ivanka married someone else.

        • krazen1211 July 10, 2017 at 4:46 pm

          Well, first, here is Chris Christie getting into it with Mike from Montclair on WFAN. Haha.

          https://twitter.com/SportsFunhouse/status/884493741737873408

          To be honest, Romney was done before then regardless of what Christie did. He was losing in basically every Ohio poll. And the Trump train was basically gone at that time anyway. Setting that aside, neither of that is the same as a Judas Republican like Whitman endorsing Hillary Clinton in a winnable election, or even in the same ballpark. And that’s even ignoring the 2 year mistake at the EPA before Bush got rid of her.

          Would he endorse a Dem in the future? Eh, maybe? A boorish pro life law and order guy is kind of the opposite of what the Democratic party is heading towards. The guy is clearly an opportunist and clearly not a saint and everything said about Bridgegate is true. But that should not take away from some significant policy changes that should endure in a blue state.

          All I am saying is that NJ will not get anyone better in the next 20 years. Political parties seem to forgive and forget quickly nowadays and I do think the NJ Rs that have soured on Christie will get over it when the taxes come.

    • Izengabe July 10, 2017 at 2:01 pm

      @Greyhound Christie is a freaking Cowboys fan so yeah he will troll the heck out of everyone on sports radio.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • OGGoldy July 10, 2017 at 8:05 am

    Minneapolis Mayor:

    The DFL had their caucus over the weekend, and there will be no official endorsement going into the the IRV general election this fall. Incumbent Betsy Hodge, who has proven to be far less adept at wrangling the different factions of the city than her predecessor R.T. Rybak, managed to come in 3rd in the smoke filled room. Raymond Dehn, a State Representative, took the most votes among the delegation, but not enough to secure an endorsement. Right now it would seem that either Dehn or Hodges will win in November, with Hodges being in a bit of a hot seat, for among other things as well as micromanaging the police department and vetoing the police chiefs appointments for precinct captain. There is one Republican running, but he will likely be eliminated well before the final rounds of IRV; this is Minneapolis after all.

    http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2017/07/08/dfl-convention-mayoral-candidates/

  • RogueBeaver July 10, 2017 at 8:34 am

    NV-GOV/SEN: Ralston says Sisolak could face a primary from the left he could lose, Titus could primary Rosen but less likely. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/democrats-are-primed-for-2018-but-there-are-two-potential-and-major-problems


    QC/Blue Tory/M

  • prsteve11 July 10, 2017 at 8:50 am

    Good write-up. Very good that at least two Midwest Dem-held Senate seats (OH and MO) are looking very winnable in 2016.


    SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 8:53 am

      I’d say there’s 5 winnable Midwest Dem-held Senate seats

      MO, ND, IN, OH, WI


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

      • edtorres04 July 10, 2017 at 8:58 am

        We need candidates first. We have had major recruiting failures in MT, MO, and WI. We also have no candidate in IN yet. The only state that we have had success in recruiting is WV, where we have 2 candidates that could destroy each other in a primary.

        • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 9:00 am

          I wouldn’t say we’ve had a “major” recruiting failure in MO. I suspect Hawley will get in and all will be fine. Plus, polls show McCaskill will lose to just about anyone. Baldwin has a 38/38 approval rating. Not good. Ron Johnson was a some dude in 2010 that took down a popular incumbent Senator. Walker’s coattails will help. And MT, I’m sure we’ll get someone.


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • edtorres04 July 10, 2017 at 9:12 am

            He may get in, but until he has announced, I wouldn’t count on anything. Wagner was supposed to be a senator for the last 6 years…

        • roguemapper July 10, 2017 at 9:05 am

          Did anyone actually “recruit” Evan Jenkins?


          Dem NC-11

          • edtorres04 July 10, 2017 at 9:11 am

            I was under the impression that McConnell had recruited him and that he was the preferred candidate, but I could have misunderstood.

            The other interesting thing is that we may have zero retirements:

            http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/2018-may-be-first-year-with-no-senate-retirements/article/2628139

            King and Hatch may still retire, but beyond that, I can’t see any retirements. I think Heidi is certainly going to run with all the cash she has raised.

            • roguemapper July 10, 2017 at 11:24 am

              My impression was that the NRSC didn’t express a preference but Patrick Morrisey was clearly going to run all along and his PAC is headed by Phil Cox who was the RGA’s senior political strategist in 2010 and then RGA executive director for 2012 and 2014. That suggests to me that if there is a preference inside the Beltway it’s for Morrisey, not Jenkins. I could be wrong!


              Dem NC-11

              • HS July 10, 2017 at 12:13 pm

                No, it’s split as best. The McConnell people want Jenkins. The Cuccinelli and more conservative groups want Morrisey.

                • BostonPatriot July 10, 2017 at 12:24 pm

                  That’s my impression as well. Jenkins’ campaign launch had the fingerprints of smart NRSC people all over it. Morrissey seems much more like a conservative-outsider type.

                  • roguemapper July 10, 2017 at 1:19 pm

                    Yep, I think you’re right. Usually the best way to tell who the national campaign committees favor when they haven’t otherwise made it clear is to simply look for the first name mentioned as a possible contender in the Beltway press. I did a quick search for articles and Morrisey was the first name to come up in the late fall/early winter. Around Feb 1 that switched to Jenkins, so it would seem that for whatever reason he became the NRSC’s top recruit around that time. I’m not sure whether that was a smart move since it was already quite clear that Morrisey was going to run, but that’s neither here nor there. It depends on how WV plays out and who really knows at this point.


                    Dem NC-11

                • Grant July 10, 2017 at 1:04 pm

                  There’s a third candidate in the race that probably nobody wants. Former coal miner Bo Copley. Nice looking site, looks like a polished guy though I haven’t heard him speak. Thing is he lives in Jenkin’s district. He ought to drop down to the WV-3 race where he’d actually have a chance.

                  http://www.boforwv.com/


                  26, R, OK-5

      • HS July 10, 2017 at 10:16 am

        And MT and WV.

      • prsteve11 July 10, 2017 at 1:31 pm

        I agree. Even in a so-so year, the GOP has a good chance in most or all of these races.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 9:10 am

    @realDonaldTrump
    I cannot imagine that Congress would dare to leave Washington without a beautiful new HealthCare bill fully approved and ready to go!

    Thank you Trump! These idiots need to get together and pass a freaking bill. Too many grandstanders, and people addicted to federal money in this caucus. Do what you promised and repeal the damn thing


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • Ryan_in_SEPA July 10, 2017 at 9:12 am

      I do not think anyone else has ever used the term “Beautiful” to describe a bill that will likely make sausage making looking pleasant.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • andyroo312 July 10, 2017 at 9:59 am

      If they don’t repeal AND replace, hello President Warren in 2020.


      MA-7

      • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 10:03 am

        Not sure about President Warren. I think Trump will win in 2020 unless we are in recession at election time, but I agree, we need to repeal AND replace. I think the Senate bill is plenty good, as it transfers people off medicaid and onto private insurance through tax credits. I think the Cruz amendment makes it better, and I think if we just use the leftover money from the savings to subsidize the insurance exchanges as a high risk pool of sort, the bill will be fine.


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

        • GerGOP July 10, 2017 at 11:07 am

          How? At this rate, the Dems need to nominate someone who isn’t half deranged (tall order, I know) and they’ll clean the clock.

          • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 11:18 am

            Trump is significantly more popular today than he was on election day 2016 when he won. On election day 2016, Trump’s favorables/unfavorables with Likely and Registered Voters according to HuffPo were 39.8/57.2. Today, they’re 40.7/52.9. And incumbent Presidents have a significant advantage and are usually re-elected.

            I’m not meaning to be rude or anything but aren’t you a self-described pessimist about everything? I remember when I was lurking on election day even when the results came in that kept looking more and more favorable to Trump you kept making comments about how Hillary was in no danger at all and would win easily. This isn’t to discount your opinion or anything, just trying to keep things in perspective.


            Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

            • GerGOP July 10, 2017 at 12:03 pm

              Oh, no offense taken. And you’re absolutely right: I am a self-described pessimist.
              I just think that if the elections were held today (or in 2020 for that matter), the Dem base would have far more reason to turn out – due to their hatred for Trump – whereas the GOP base can barely contain it’s anger for a GOP Trifecta which will depress turnout.

              • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 3:58 pm

                I just think it’s very hard to tell who will vote in 2020 in 2017. After 1992, the Republican base was way more fired up, yet Clinton won easily in 1996. After 2008, the GOP base was way more fired up, and Obama won in 2012. The Dem base even seemed more fired up in 2004, as their hatred for Bush was probably a lite-version of their hatred for Trump now, yet Bush still won.


                Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

            • MikeFL July 10, 2017 at 12:09 pm

              I mean Trump still barely won, even with facing someone with negatives just as bad as him and that was under FBI investigation. I mean his disapprovals have gone down some, but he’s still fairly unpopular. I wouldn’t say a Dem will “clean clock,” but if Trump is hovering around only slightly better than where he was in 2016 against someone who isn’t as bad as Hillary (obviously an open question), then he will be in a dogfight.


              26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

            • Vosmyorka July 10, 2017 at 2:57 pm

              The thing is, the results in presidential open seat races (like 2000/2008/2016) often don’t track either candidate’s favorability very well (historically because both candidates tend to be at least a bit above water; in 2016 because both candidates were hated). Presidential reelection campaigns tend to mirror presidential approval almost exactly, as they did in 1984/1992/2004/2012, or to have the president underperform his approvals meaningfully (as Bill Clinton did in 1996, though he still won). This feels a bit like one of those made-to-be-broken rules, like “the president is never reelected by less than his first victory”, which I was a big believer in in 2012, but it’s still a pattern worth noticing. If Trump is at 40% approval, he probably gets roughly that in the election — though of course presidential approval can be affected by the campaign, sometimes quite meaningfully.

              The bigger problem for Trump (who is a good campaigner whose approval I would expect to see rise during the campaign) is simply that he has never shown any ability to appeal beyond the 46% he got in 2016 (which is also the highest number he’s reached in his poll-of-polls average approval rating) and campaigns where that is enough to win are not typical.


              Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

              • rdelbov July 10, 2017 at 3:09 pm

                Posters here know I was just about the last person to give up and concede that Trump was going to be the GOP nominee. I held out until the last rules matter was settled as I still can’t believe that Trump won the GOP nod. Christie-Bush-Huckabee-Carly F all stayed in too long. Not a doubt in my mind that Rubio would have beat Trump one on one for the GOP nod so I am no Trump guy.

                Yet I saw something out there last summer. As bad as Trump was Hillary was worse and folks who do not see like R voters were going for Trump.

                Long story short I have seen flashes of something in Trump since he got sworn in. Little flashes and not much lately. His 1st speech to Congress-his inauguration address were really really good.
                If we see the good Donald at the convention in 2020 and the good Donald at the debate forget these polls numbers now. Toss them out. The Good Trump can get to 50% in 2020.

                • Vosmyorka July 10, 2017 at 3:53 pm

                  Eh. This feels like hoping for the eternal pivot that never comes. Trump had flashes during the campaign too, like his speech on the final night of the GOP convention. But he’s not going to change who he is or how he works fundamentally. Especially since it’s worked this far.


                  Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

                  • MikeFL July 10, 2017 at 4:07 pm

                    I agree with this^^. Also, I think if Trump is in a scenario where he’s facing a relatively popular Dem candidate and losing, he’ll double down and go full kitchen-sink Trump.

                    FWIW, I still think there is a good chance he won’t run again, though, due to either health concerns (stress of the job + 74, the weight-gain, etc.), boredom/unhappiness with the job, or something like a recession drops his approval ratings down to the low-mid 30s among RVs. Declare victory and #MAGA, then move on.


                    26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

                    • jncca July 10, 2017 at 10:28 pm

                      I find it hard to imagine a narrow Trump loss. He will either win by a small margin or lose by a large margin, I think. Because if he’s down in the polls by 5-10 points (and not running against Hillary), he will make ridiculous attacks that lose soft Republicans against whatever relatively inoffensive Democrat gets nominated, unless it’s Elizabeth Warren who is nominated in which case the Hillary playbook could work.


                      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

                    • Vosmyorka July 11, 2017 at 3:41 am

                      I find it very easy to imagine a narrow Trump loss. You just have to go along with VBKC’s theories about how most of the Trump coalition is anti-Democratic or unloseable, and just add a little bit of anti-Trump third-party voters going to the Democratic candidate, or the electorate being born a little bit later than the 2016 one, and you can quite easily get to a 49/46 defeat or so. This smacks of presentism a little bit, but I don’t think that rules out this scenario.


                      Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

                    • roguemapper July 11, 2017 at 5:14 am

                      I can easily see the Donald swapping out 2-3% from his Midwest vote for 2-3% from the Sunbelt vote turning a 46-49 win into a 46-49 loss.


                      Dem NC-11

                    • shamlet July 11, 2017 at 6:30 am

                      @RM – really? I’d actually suggest the opposite is more likely to happen. If Trump loses narrowly, I’d bet it’s through losing FL and NC rather than PA-MI-WI.


                      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

                    • roguemapper July 11, 2017 at 6:59 am

                      If the economy and jobs are weak in 2020 I could easily see 2-3% worth of Rustbelt voters who voted for the Donald in 2016 deciding to give the Democrat a go at it. Conversely, 2-3% of mostly suburban voters in the Sunbelt who usually vote GOP but abandoned the Donald (particularly in GA and TX) could very well decide that he’s a reliable enough president after all, or at least better than the Democrat. To be sure, I can also easily see the scenario where 2020 is basically just an extension of a longterm realignment between the Rustbelt and the Sunbelt so that FL & NC flip but PA-MI-WI stay with the Donald. At this point I don’t think one is more likely than the other. There are too many unknown variables.


                      Dem NC-11

                    • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 11, 2017 at 12:18 pm

                      I don’t imagine a big Trump win or a big Trump loss. It’s totally unimaginable that the #Resistance could nominate someone with broad appeal to swing voters and the Trump administration has shown very little ability to reach across the aisle to left-leaning voters. Both a recession and actual broad-based economic growth seem very unlikely.

                      I’d put good money on Trump doing slightly better in the Sun Belt while doing slightly worse in the Rust Belt, just he has turned out more Republican than presumably many marginal Rust Belt voters expected. Keeping MI/WI/PA still seems like the big challenge for 2020 and I don’t think it’s happening unless we see a pivot/triangulation after what will presumably be a painful 2018 election.


                      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • cer July 10, 2017 at 10:59 am

        Warren will never be POTUS.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • andyroo312 July 10, 2017 at 11:13 am

          The same, obviously, would have been said of Trump three or four years ago.


          MA-7

          • cer July 10, 2017 at 11:24 am

            Trump made some logical sense. Warren is so far to the left, that she will have very little appeal to the vast majority of independents.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

            • MikeFL July 10, 2017 at 12:00 pm

              Trump made no logical sense summer 2015. You can never say never at this point.


              26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

            • andyroo312 July 10, 2017 at 1:06 pm

              Warren can easily tie Trump among independents if the latter is unpopular in 2020.


              MA-7

              • cer July 10, 2017 at 1:18 pm

                Count me as skeptical on that one.


                Conservative first, Republican second!

            • Manhatlibertarian July 10, 2017 at 2:13 pm

              One of the ironical things about the Bridge scandal, which is certainly one thing contributing to Christie’s low rating, is that Christie was on track for an easy win in NJ and hardly needed the support of the Dem mayor of little Fort Lee; you may remember the refusal of the mayor to support Christie led to the traffic tieups on the GW Bridge as “punishment”. I mean what were his staff thinking? They didn’t need to do this for Christie to easily win. Didn’t they realize the story was bound to leak out sooner or later?

              • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 2:16 pm

                Very similar to Watergate. Nixon was on track to win easily, and he ended up winning 49 states and the biggest popular vote margin in the history of the country, yet he felt the need to do something extremely sorry for illegal to hurt the Democrats. Both of these things seem crazy to the average person, but it’s clear politicians have extreme egos/ are extremely paranoid as those are not things a rational person would do.


                Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 10, 2017 at 2:19 pm

                  Bridgegate is arguably much worse. Because it didn’t actually improve Christie’s chances of winning a race. It was ex-post-facto petty revenge. At least Watergate was arguably committed to help Nixon win an election.


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                • Manhatlibertarian July 10, 2017 at 2:24 pm

                  Yes very true about some politicians, although I got the impression Nixon didn’t actually authorize the Watergate break in, but made the mistake of trying to cover it up. If he had said from the start I didn’t authorize this and those who participated should face the law for their actions, history could have been very different.

              • Izengabe July 10, 2017 at 2:50 pm

                The real scandal of Bridgegate is it showed that Christie doesnt give a rats ass about the little people who have to be stuck in traffic so he could play politics with a Mayor who crossed him. That’s what killed Chrisite. Over the last 4 years he’s repeatedly shown he does give a rip about the people of New Jersey and that he only cares about himself. His vanity Presidential run and his Trump toadying was all done while neglecting the needs of NJ. That is a quality no one will stand for in a politician. That is why he’s hated.


                Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • Manhatlibertarian July 10, 2017 at 2:17 pm

              Hey how about a Liz Warren-Maxine Waters ticket? SJW types would go crazy for that ticket, but I suspect a number of people who don’t normally vote GOP might find themselves doing so if the Dems had that ticket. But it would be fun!

              • Ryan_in_SEPA July 10, 2017 at 2:51 pm

                Probably every Republican except RRR and TexasR would be full blown MAGA at that point.


                31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

                • kewgardens July 10, 2017 at 10:05 pm

                  No, because I suspect that some rich “centrist,” like Bloomberg or Cuban would jump in at that point. Even if such a “third-way” candidacy couldn’t get 270 votes, it might throw the election in the House. And even if it didn’t, it would give non-conservative Wall Streeters, upper middle class moderates, Never Trumpers and centrist Dems (Heitkamp, Manchin, Donnelly, Peterson, etc.) someone they could arguably support.

              • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 10, 2017 at 3:11 pm

                Warren and Waters are pretty far apart. Waters is a deeply corrupt, repulsive human being. Warren is difficult to like and generally not a nice person and probably ideologically dishonest, but doesn’t ooze (banal) evil in the same way Maxine Waters does. I’d accept Elizabeth Warren as President if she were duly elected. Or an alternative universe Jeremy Corbyn who is constitutionally eligible.

                I probably wouldn’t accept Maxine Waters no matter how she was elected.


                I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • segmentation_fault July 10, 2017 at 3:06 pm

              Jeremy Corbyn says hi and asks you to look at the latest opinion polls in Britain.

              Warren is too far left for my tastes but being ideologically unconventional is not a disqualifier (anymore).


              Bernie Bernstein

          • davybaby July 10, 2017 at 8:21 pm

            The same would have been said about Trump at 7:00 pm ET on election night.

        • Vosmyorka July 10, 2017 at 3:57 pm

          Warren feels like someone very unenthusiastic about running for President who’s doing it because her ideological supporters are big fans of her (the equivalent on the GOP side would be Scott Walker). It’s easy for me to imagine her entering at first or second place, quickly deflating, and then dropping out before Iowa. But that has to do with an attitude problem, not an ideological problem.


          Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

          • kewgardens July 10, 2017 at 10:12 pm

            I suspect that Warren (an extremely smart, diabolical and ideological individual) recognizes that she would be a relatively weak candidate. She is a horrid leftist but, unlike Trump, she is a team player and not a narcissist. I think that she believes that she can best advance “the cause” by supporting a stronger presidential candidate and remaining in her influential perch in the Senate for the next 20 years — where she can consistently work to push the Overton Window to the left.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 10, 2017 at 3:08 pm

        That seems probable. It also seems probable if we repeal and replace too.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Left Coast Libertarian July 10, 2017 at 9:15 am

    Are you using WCW voters as an acronym for Woman Crush Wednesday here? I’ve never heard of Woman Crush Wednesday used in that context.

    • Tekzilla July 10, 2017 at 9:57 am

      Pretty sure this is a joke but just in case – working class whites.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • Left Coast Libertarian July 10, 2017 at 10:06 am

        Not a joke, but clearly I spend way too much time on Instagram. I don’t think I’ve ever seen working class whites listed as WCW. I Googled WCW voters and Weak Condorcet winner and World Championship Wrestling.

        • Greyhound July 10, 2017 at 5:04 pm

          Sorry, was writing this at 3:30 in the morning and had to make up time where I could. Also, “Working Class Whites” seemed like something that should have been short-handed by now anyway.


          R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

    • GerGOP July 10, 2017 at 10:57 am

      Am I wrong to assume that we could have done better here?

      • rdelbov July 10, 2017 at 11:06 am

        I personally think Congressman Jenkins is a heavy favorite in the GOP primary. I like the AG but there are political -social factors that favor the congressman.

        I think he would also be a stronger GE candidate.

        • shamlet July 10, 2017 at 11:16 am

          Morrisey is favored. Jenkins has a big problem in that a big chunk of his voters are Ds. WV-3 has far less than 1/3 of the state’s Rs.

          If I were him I’d be thinking about dropping back down.


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

          • rdelbov July 10, 2017 at 11:37 am

            You think so? Here’s my take–yup I think WV3 will be about 25% as opposed to 33%(if the numbers were even) of the GOP primary vote. I would expect him, however, to really really rack up the % in that area. 75% of 25% means you only need to get 42% of the rest of the vote Not speaking ill of the AG but I see these factors.

            1st Jenkins is a West Virginian. Not a hit on the AG but everyone in WV knows he is a newcomer to the state.
            2nd Jenkins has that anglo-Saxon-Scot Irish heritage social economic Protestant background factor going for him. In the hills and hollows of WV(exactly here in TN as well) Irish Catholic candidates from NJ just have different feel to voters.
            3rd Jenkins seems to be well connected as a Huntington guy to the other River counties like Mason-Wood as well as GOP voters in Putman county. Really Wood and Putman counties have a huge chunk of primary voters.

            I could be wrong but then again I remember James Lankford in the 2014 OK GOP primary. Many of the posters here did not think Lankford’s background as a lay worker in the Baptist church would not resonate with primary voters. I knew it would. This stuff matters to A yuge chunk of GOP primary voters in WV in 2018 will be natives of the state who are Church of Christ, Baptist or conservative Presbyterians. Jenkins will connect better with them. I have seen any polls but that is gut feeling right now.

            • Manhatlibertarian July 10, 2017 at 1:32 pm

              I know you are specifically talking about the GOP primary, but I would point out that Senator Joe Manchin is a Catholic of Italian-Czech ethnicity and he has done quite well in heavily Anglo Saxon/Scot Irish Protestant WV, being elected SOS, Gov and Senator. True Manchin is not from NJ like Morrisey, so Jenkins may have a bit of edge there, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in the religious/ethnic factor. It might matter in a very close primary but then Morrisey did manage to get himself elected statewide as AG. Also come to think of it WV 2nd CD GOP Congressman Mooney is part-Cuban.

              • HS July 10, 2017 at 1:40 pm

                I have no personal knowledge of Morrisey, but as someone with a lot of experience with NYers/ NJerseyites, my guess is it is very obvious Morrisey is not from WV. And if he is indeed the blunt, loud stereotype, that may be his biggest problem.

                Then again, WV voted for Trump! (Although against Hillary, and not Joe Manchin.)

              • Manhatlibertarian July 10, 2017 at 1:54 pm

                Congressman Mooney is interesting for WV not only because he is a Catholic of Irish-Cuban ancestry but also because he is from Maryland and served as Chair of the GOP there and was in the Maryland State Senate. He moved to WV about 5 years ago and won the GOP nomination for Congress in WV against 6 opponents despite being called a carpetbagger and then went on to win the seat. So again I would caution against putting too much stock in ethnic/religious background in WV races.

              • rdelbov July 10, 2017 at 2:16 pm

                WV is more diverse then one would think. Weirton WV is more like Pittsburg PA(population wise) and must seem like another world to folks in Mingo county. There is a substantial ethnic (non-WASP) population in WV–I suspect the Panhandle and Morgantown area are culturally diverse. So too is Jefferson and Berkley counties that seem like DC exurbs.

                I don’t discount Manchin as an ethnic but I note he has deep WV roots and he is a democrat.

                The bulk of the GOP primary vote will be in rural areas of WV or Charleston Suburbs or Huntington/Parkerburg/Beckley areas. The bulk of the GOP primary vote will be Waspish and will fit the descriptions from above.

                I note Mooney won a divided primary in 2014. For that matter he limped in with 73% of the vote in the GOP primary in 2016 against a nobody. I like Mooney but in a GOP primary against Jenkins-heads up one on one-in WV I think Jenkins wins. By the same logic I think he beats the AG

                • Manhatlibertarian July 10, 2017 at 2:52 pm

                  Yeah I know WV is not just coal mines, and the “finger” of W.Va between Ohio and Pa is more like the industrial Midwest and the Panhandle is more and more like the suburbs/exurbs of DC. But the state still is one of the whitest states in the nation, but tends to still have a lot of rural/small town areas with low income and a lot of people on Medicaid. Despite the low income in many areas it has trended GOP what with conservative cultural values, gun rights and a feeling that the national Dem party really isn’t that interested in them. I think at one time even an upscale liberal Dem candidate like Dukakis carried WV, but those days are gone. Still I would rate Manchin as the favorite in 2018 over whoever wins the GOP primary because of his centrist voting record (like voting for Gorbush) but he is not invulnerable.

  • MosheM July 10, 2017 at 1:02 pm

    NEW NJ Monmouth POLL: Christie rating at all-time low

    15% approve-80% disapprove

    https://t.co/q6EsdwuXnR https://t.co/cyoFYFouG2


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • prsteve11 July 10, 2017 at 1:36 pm

      The same poll finds President Trump with a 35% job approval rating. Not bad for NJ, a state he lost by 14 points.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • RogueBeaver July 10, 2017 at 1:14 pm

    NV-4: Vegas councilor Stavros Anthony running. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/las-vegas-councilman-to-file-for-congress


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • shamlet July 10, 2017 at 1:39 pm

      Nice. Still a long-shot but probably the best get we could snag for this seat.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • MosheM July 10, 2017 at 2:38 pm

    Israeli Labour Party Leadership Primary Runoff:

    Avi Gabai (formerly of Kulanu) has won 52-48.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • jncca July 10, 2017 at 10:31 pm

      Does this presage a grand coalition with Bibi swapping out some folks he likes less for a more centrist Labor party? Or does Labor hate Netanyahu too much for that strategy to work?


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • Vosmyorka July 11, 2017 at 3:38 am

        It does not. The Labor Party’s political class is basically an Israeli version of the Prize Patrol and would be happy to get into bed with Netanyahu (as they did from 2009-2011, in fact). The Labor Party’s voters hate Netanyahu’s guts and mostly don’t want the coalition; Peretz, a former leader of Labor who is the single longest-serving incumbent Member of the Knesset and has briefly left Labor for a micro-party twice, is the epitome of everything hated about Labor’s political class and Gabay was elected against this political class (running an “all things to all men” type campaign); instantly entering the government would be a betrayal of his own appeal.


        Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

  • segmentation_fault July 10, 2017 at 3:14 pm

    Why is the Vermont GOP working so hard to put Bernie & Jane Sanders behind bars? That would be a giant gift to the Dem establishment.

    http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/341308-fbi-investigation-of-sanders-wife-picks-up-report#


    Bernie Bernstein

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 10, 2017 at 3:24 pm

      To stop him from becoming the 46th President of the United States. Which I think was a very likely outcome a few months ago, but is now a very unlikely outcome due to this investigation.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • shamlet July 10, 2017 at 3:28 pm

        Also, more locally, if Sanders were to be forced into retirement Scott would be basically totally ensured of getting a free pass in 2018 as anyone thinking of trying their luck will probably go for the House seat instead. (I’m assuming Welch would slide up in that scenario.)


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 3:45 pm

          Phil Scott will likely be safe no matter who runs against him. The last poll had him at a 68/16 approval rating. Vermont is not a state like Maryland where the Democrats are very inelastic and even a popular Governor Ehrlich lost in a Dem wave. Jim Douglas won easily in 2006 and 2008. I think Vermont is probably Safe R at this point.


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

          • segmentation_fault July 10, 2017 at 4:02 pm

            I think Scott is very likely to win but there are some things in his record that a Dem could exploit like his veto of MJ legalization.


            Bernie Bernstein

        • BostonPatriot July 10, 2017 at 4:43 pm

          If you’re a Republican it’s also an embarrassment to your state to have America’s most prominent socialist as your Senator (as opposed to a faceless Democrat like Welch). Jailing Bernie would be a massive political scalp for the VTGOP.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 10, 2017 at 4:52 pm

            It also comes off as a partisan witch-hunt.

            Thank God we don’t live in a timeline where Bernie Sanders was elected President and Republicans were trying to get him impeached and people were genuinely contemplating a military coup.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • BostonPatriot July 10, 2017 at 4:54 pm

              It totally does. But that’s their rationale for doing it.

              • Left Coast Libertarian July 10, 2017 at 11:29 pm

                This isn’t a situation where Republicans are out to get Bernie. This is one Republicans alerting the FBI to potential criminal activity. It seems likely that the FBI wouldn’t have investigated if he hadn’t but the FBI investigation has nothing to do with Republicans. Jeff Sessions should recuse himself from this one. The FBI must believe that there is a chance of something illegal or they would’ve closed the door on this a long time ago. That said, it doesn’t appear that Bernie did anything wrong.

    • rdelbov July 10, 2017 at 5:17 pm

      Here is where I 1st heard of the land boondoggle

      https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/what-happened-at-burlington-college/482973/

      Of course the the Atlantic is known right wing rag-or is it-so I discounted it. There was a lot of chatter about this deal last spring and summer. I wonder if Bill Clinton asked Lynch to quash the investigation. I suspect that there has been no FBI leaks but rather Clinton holdovers in the DOJ are talking. This investigation has been ongoing for over a year. Can’t blame the GOP for this deal.

    • rdw72777 July 10, 2017 at 6:06 pm

      Because Hillary…or something like that

      Signed – HA Goodman

    • Izengabe July 10, 2017 at 7:43 pm

      Because Jane Sanders’ mismanagement, hubris, lies and use of her husband’s political connections to get a loan cause Burlington College to go bankrupt. People should be angry about that and the FBI should be looking into this. Just because you are a Senator’s wife doesnt mean you are above the law.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • rdelbov July 10, 2017 at 9:03 pm

        Ironically it could be misuse of all of those federal funds for student aid-pell grants and stuff like that could do them in?

  • Manhatlibertarian July 10, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    So Mayor deBlasio made is speech in Hamburg this weekend with his son Dante alongside him (who is in Germany for the summer for some reason) attacking Trump on not adhering to the Climate Change agreement, telling the Hamburg crowd “Our Earth depends on you.” He praised the 50,000 in the protest crowd saying “This is what democracy looks like.” He also praised the NYC subway system to the crowd as “working harmony”, where people of all faiths and languages ride together. Well that may be, but considering all the problems the subway system is having lately it may not be the best time to say how wonderful the NYC subway system is. I guess the crowd liked him, although maybe GerGOP has a better handle on how he went over in Germany. He has an immense ego and no doubt sees himself an an important world figure who people all over the world look to.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/de-blasio-joins-g20-protest-laud-police-back-climate-deal-article-1.331970

    • Manhatlibertarian July 10, 2017 at 4:13 pm

      Whoops! Try this reference for above story:

      http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/de-blasio-joins-g20-protest-laud-police-back-climate-deal-article-1.3311970

      • kewgardens July 10, 2017 at 10:23 pm

        He has an immense ego and no doubt sees himself an an important world figure who people all over the world look to.

        You mean like a long list of other New York politicians? 🙂

    • AJNolte July 10, 2017 at 10:31 pm

      It’s not crazy to me that, if he gets re-elected, DeBlasio could run for President and win the primary in 2020. It’s also not crazy to think Bloomberg runs third party in a Trump/DeBlasio election, in which case we have three legit candidates from New York City.


      33, male, VA-02, libertarian so-con hawk, Semi-persuadable Trump skeptic.

  • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 4:21 pm

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/10/new-version-gop-senate-health-bill-is-coming-monday-sen-pat-toomey.html

    Toomey says new version of the healthcare bill is coming soon.

    Toomey is quickly becoming one of my favorite Senators, as he recognizes the albatross that is Medicaid and is working to fix it. He’s very conservative, but doesn’t vote against things from the right all the time/grandstand like an idiot. A practical Conservative. Him and Rubio are in the same mold. He’s also in a swing/formerly blue ish state. If not for that gun control proposal, he would be perfect, but you’ve gotta do what you gotta do to get elected, I guess, and making an obviously doomed gun control proposal isn’t too horrible.


    Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • BostonPatriot July 10, 2017 at 4:51 pm

      Toomey, non-presidential Rubio, Sasse, and Scott are really the young-ish bright lights of the Senate caucus. Gardner has been quiet since taking office but he has potential to join that group too. I expected Jeff Flake to fit right in but he’s made one political miscalculation after another after a very promising house career.

      Josh Hawley is the 2018 candidate who best fits this mold.

      • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 5:06 pm

        I think Sasse is a freaking joke. Anyone who attacks Trump for that WWE CNN tweet is just looking for media attention. That was obviously a joke, and a funny one at that. He also attacked Trump for attacking John Lewis. Trump is allowed to attack John Lewis if John Lewis attacks him, John Lewis was a civil rights hero 50 years ago. That does not make his partisan political views uncriticizeable. Sasse seems like he’s a conservative Republican who loves being on MSNBC, or maybe more likely, a super elitist Conservative professor Republican.

        I like Toomey, Rubio, Scott, Grassley, Ernst, Lankford and honestly, McConnell. What McConnell did with the Supreme Court, both delaying the nominations, and the nuclear option took freaking balls. I love members of the GOP like that who will fight for us. Does Bill Frist do that? Not sure. I’m actually even starting to like Ted Cruz a little more since the election, though he’s still not one of my favorites because he votes against things from the right too much. I’d rather he support the BRCA and propose his amendment instead of withholding support until he gets everything he wants.

        In the house, I like Hurd, Meadows, Desantis, MacArthur, Kevin Brady and Paul Ryan, probably forgetting some, but those are the ones that stick out


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

    • HS July 10, 2017 at 6:14 pm

      Toomey did the gun control bill to appeal to suburban and formerly moderate Republicans in the Philadelphia area. He is essentially following the Specter strategy, except on gun control rather than abortion.
      And it has worked.

      Fyi, Toomey is really conservative on economic issues, but he is not as wedded to conservative social views. He was once somewhat pro-choice.

      • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 6:23 pm

        Why does gun control seem to be such a big issue in the Northeastern suburbs? Meehan and Fitzpatrick both support gun control, as does Toomey. Peter T King and Dan Donovan do in New York as well. There are no other GOP reps who support gun control. None of the southern suburbs have reps that support gun control, even in educated texas and atlanta suburbs. Suburban California Republicans don’t support gun control either


        Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 10, 2017 at 6:28 pm

          Political stupidity? Gun control is one of those rare issues where the public has gotten much more conservative on.

          http://a.abcnews.com/images/Politics/ABCWashPostPoll_BanningAssaultWeapons_1216.png
          http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/7baieajcvucxglhnxzyvxw.png


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • BostonPatriot July 10, 2017 at 6:32 pm

          There is less of a gun-ownership culture in the Acela corridor than anywhere else in America, even among conservatives. I grew up in a reasonably conservative small town in Central MA and can probably think of only 2 or 3 people I knew who owned a gun, all of whom were avid sportsmen. If my town had been anywhere south or west of Philly, gun ownership would have been much more common.

          Being pro-gun control as a northeastern Republican is a good way look moderate on an issue that liberals and moderates at least pretend to care about, while doing minimal damage with conservatives. Even though most northeastern conservatives support the 2nd Amendment, it’s not high on their list of priorities so a gun control vote isn’t the heresy it would be most other places.

        • HS July 10, 2017 at 6:42 pm

          Toomey faces a different situation than Meehan or Fitzpatrick. He and Dent are similar. Both must appeal to moderate suburbanites who hate guns and also gun lovers. Basically, the two make some feints to gun control, usually verbal, while doing nothing too important. And it works.

          • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 6:45 pm

            How is that different from Meehan and Fitzpatrick’s situation?

            And I’m sure that’s true about Toomey, but I doubt that’s true about Dent. I think he’s a lot like Richard Lugar, a blowhard who actually believes in this “bipartisan moderate” crap and his brand of politics is a level above everyone else because he’s “bipartisan”. I’m sure he supports this stuff because he wants it, and it’s “bipartisan”, just like he opposed the healthcare bill because he wanted a “bipartisan” solution, nevermind the fact that Dems rammed Obamacare down our throats without any of our support, so we should do the same in repealing it and THEN go bipartisan.


            Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

            • HS July 10, 2017 at 6:59 pm

              Meehan and Fitzpatrick represent the suburbs so most people who vote for them are anti-gun. Toomey, who represents the entire state, has to worry about both groups. In the 15th, Dent has suburban areas and rural areas too.

              On guns, I am pretty sure that Dent really doesn’t care. He just does what he has to do. On the other issues he may be a Lugar.

        • Izengabe July 10, 2017 at 7:49 pm

          Because having a gun in NYC is idiotic. Just like not owning a gun in rural Alaska is probably idiotic. That’s what federalism is all about.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 7:51 pm

            Owning a gun in NYC is NOT idiotic. Home invasions still happen in cities


            Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

            • Izengabe July 10, 2017 at 7:59 pm

              If shoot a gun inside a NYC apartment you are more likely to accidentally hit your neighbor threw the walls than any potential perp.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • RogueBeaver July 10, 2017 at 5:32 pm

    CO-GOV: Perlmutter dropping out. http://www.denverpost.com/2017/07/10/ed-perlmutter-drop-out-colorado-governors-race/


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • shamlet July 10, 2017 at 5:51 pm

      FP’d.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 10, 2017 at 5:35 pm

    House Freedom Caucus threatens a government shutdown over lack of a border wall.

    https://www.axios.com/freedom-caucus-chair-threatens-shutdown-over-border-wall-2456832278.html

    Seriously, the spineless GOP Congress should just fund some solar paneling on a few highly visible border crossings, fund some reasonable fencing on the other parts, and then call it a day. We don’t need a god damn Great Wall of China, but they ought to at least make a semi-good-faith effort at border security instead of pulling another GOP.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • roguemapper July 10, 2017 at 6:16 pm

      A 50 yard deep minefield along the entire Mexican border would cost just $30 million and if it weren’t for out-of-control political correctness that would be the obvious solution.


      Dem NC-11

      • Jon July 10, 2017 at 6:43 pm

        Even cheaper: Place the signs warning of a live minefield everywhere along the border, but actually only have about 10% of said marked fields have any mines at all.


        45, M, MO-02

    • Izengabe July 10, 2017 at 7:52 pm

      In a mere span of 6 years the House Freedom Caucus went from wanting to shut the Government down over too much federal spending to wanting to shut the federal government down over not enough federal spending. The more things change the more they stay the same in Washington.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Manhatlibertarian July 10, 2017 at 8:40 pm

      I think there is a need to focus on what ICE has been doing with deportation arrests up 38% in the first 100 days of the Trump Presidency compared to the same period last year under Obama. Although the focus is on those who commit crimes and/or ignore past deportation orders (about 2/3 of those arrested have committed crimes), if you are here illegally and get caught up in these sweeps you can be deported. So beefing up ICE IMO is as at least as important as a border wall, if not more so. I’ve read at least 40% of illegal aliens have come here legally on temporary visas and then overstay, so a wall doesn’t affect them. Meanwhile, US Customs and Border Protection reports than from the start of the year there has been a significant decline in the number of people trying to illegally cross the Mexican border, probably due at least in part to Trump’s tougher immigration policy. So I’m not opposed to building the rest of the wall of some type (700 miles have already been built a fact that if often ignored) if it can be done at reasonable cost, but I would focus on beefing up ICE with more staff which is considerably cheaper; let Dem members of Congress from Red States explain to constituents why they are voting against strengthening an agency that is removing many criminal aliens if they try to block this legislation, if they dare to do so.

      http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39964184

      • californianintexas July 11, 2017 at 1:38 am

        I too think strengthening ICE is more important, considering a wall wouldn’t stop immigrants from coming with legal visas and overstaying them, or probably those that come illegally by boat or plane.


        34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

  • Greyhound July 10, 2017 at 6:49 pm

    Tory Majority down by 1, as Anne Marie Morris withdraws from the Conservative Whip to sit as an Independent:
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/884458972492820482

    No idea why, as she represents a safe Tory seat in SW England and has never seemed to be a problem for leadership up until now.


    R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

  • Republican Michigander July 10, 2017 at 7:24 pm

    MI-8 – 2nd individual announces against Mike Bishop. She grew up in Holly, but has been in DC for years. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.

    http://www.freep.com/story/news/2017/07/10/elissa-slotkin-mike-bishop-us-house/464049001/


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Mike1965 July 10, 2017 at 7:42 pm

    MN-08: Pete Stauber has a nice Bio but I admit until yesterday I had never heard of him. Time will tell how good a candidate he will be. I did have to chuckle though at the description of him as a hockey star, He played college hockey out of the state and spent 4 years professionally in the minors. I would be willing to bet there are more former college and professional hockey players in MN-08 than any CD in the nation and hundreds of them probably had more success. The hockey is a nice part of his bio but “star” is a little over the top. BTW his brother Robb was a star, Hobey Baker award (college hockey version of the Heisman) winner with the Gophers and an NHL goalie. If casual sports fans recognize the Stauber name it would be because of Robb.


    #ThanksObama

    • Republican Michigander July 10, 2017 at 8:19 pm

      The name Stauber sounded vaguely familiar. I assumed it was a major college star at Minnesota-Duluth or NHL player.

      I’d argue the old MI-11 (when McCotter was there) could make a run for that hockey title despite Minnesota’s (deserved) NHL reputation. Waterford, Westland (now in the Detroit district), and Livonia has and had a lot of talent. Mike Modano, Pat LaFontaine (grew up in Waterford), and Al Iafrate (gave us fits when he was with the Maple Leafs) are three I can think of off the top of my head.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • Mike1965 July 10, 2017 at 8:35 pm

        You may be right. For a Minnesotan I am a casual hockey fan at best. Here in Southern Minnesota I grew up playing and watching basketball in the winter and have really never gotten into hockey.


        #ThanksObama

        • Republican Michigander July 10, 2017 at 8:39 pm

          Never mind. MN-08 has two of the Hanson brothers. You win. 🙂


          MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • GradyDem July 10, 2017 at 8:54 pm

    MO-SEN: Remington Research finds Schmitt +4 over McCaskill, Healy +3, Luetkemeyer +7, Hartzler +4, and Richardson +5. McCaskill has a 40/45 approval.

    https://twitter.com/eyokley/status/884079843599691776

    • kewgardens July 10, 2017 at 10:35 pm

      Wondering if Hartzler would be a good candidate because McCaskill will have a tough time “Akinizing” her.

    • HoneyBee July 10, 2017 at 10:44 pm

      Soooooo Donald Trump Jr. met with a lawyer that said the Kremlin funded the DNC and then pivoted to Russian adopted and then Trump jr. ended the meeting, and NyTimes acts like this is some kind of scandal? Where’s the scandal? The media really is overplaying their hand here


      Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

      • segmentation_fault July 10, 2017 at 11:17 pm

        I know you don’t have a problem with the Trump campaign accepting help from Russian govt to defeat Hillary but some people do. This is the strongest proof we have that collusion occurred. And at the highest levels of the campaign.


        Bernie Bernstein

        • TennesseeMike July 11, 2017 at 12:39 am

          What proof? There is still no proof of ANY collusion. It sounds to me like this lawyer wanted inside access to Trump’s campaign and oversold what little to nothing he had.


          TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

        • HoneyBee July 11, 2017 at 6:31 am

          http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-trump-clinton-idUSKBN19U0YN

          Umm, the story says Trump Jr. met with a “Kremlin-linked” lawyer whatever, that means
          “After pleasantries were exchanged, the woman stated that she had information that individuals connected to Russia were funding the Democratic National Committee and supporting Ms. Clinton,” the statement said. Clinton was the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee.”
          “Her statements were vague, ambiguous and made no sense. No details or supporting information was provided or even offered. It quickly became clear that she had no meaningful information.”
          “Trump Jr. said Veselnitskaya then turned the conversation to the adoption of Russian children and a U.S. law blackisting Russians linked to alleged human-rights abuse.”

          So it’s “collusion” now to meet with someone who says they have damaging info about your opponent? There is nothing at all illegal about this meeting.


          Former Anti-Trump Rubio supporter in the primaries. Trump is now my favorite Republican

  • Izengabe July 10, 2017 at 9:47 pm

    Re: Andrew Cuomo for President in 2020, his ability to run is 100% owed to Donald Trump firing Preet Bharara. If he was still US Attorney I would argue there is no way Cuomo would make it to 2020 without an investigation.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Greyhound July 10, 2017 at 10:22 pm

      Or alternatively, it means Cuomo might get prosecuted during the election season instead. Its not like his actions have suddenly become less shady.


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • Izengabe July 11, 2017 at 12:27 am

        Big difference politically between Trump Justice Department bringing the charges and Preet Bharara doing it.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Manhatlibertarian July 10, 2017 at 10:01 pm

    Monday New York tidbits:

    Former NYPD Chief of Department Phil Banks is reportedly mulling a run for NYC mayor and is meeting with financial backers. Banks was one of the highest ranking AAs in the NYPD, and AAs have been a major source of strength for deBlasio.

    In the 24th CD, Anne Messenger, a small business entrepreneur who also serves on charity boards, will announce tomorrow her candidacy for the Dem nomination against Congressman John Katko.

    Adirondack Park Conservation groups have also come out against a Yes vote in November to hold a Constitutional Convention, forming the Committee to Defend Forever Wild.

    Besides his Hamptons fundraiser where tickets sold for up to $25,000, Cuomo is holding yet another one in the Hamptons at the estate of hedge funder Joseph DiMenna and his wife Diane, a Broadway producer. At this one tickets can cost up to $50,000. The Gov started the year with $21.9 million COH for his campaign, and that figure is probably going to be a lot higher with his next financial report.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

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