Political Roundup for July 11, 2017

First off, there are three special elections in Oklahoma today, one primary and two general. The first general election is for OK-SD-44, an R+13 (2012) seat covering lower-middle-class areas in southwest OKC near the airport. A pair of prior candidates are facing off – 2014 nominee Michael Brooks-Jiminez (D) and 2016 State House nominee Joe Griffin (R). Neither was particularly impressive in his prior run; Griffin has establishment connections and the lean of the seat on his side but Brooks-Jiminez has outraised him by 5 to 1 (!). Democrats have also had a very strong run in special elections – even before the 2016 general, as budget cuts that hit education hard energized the teachers’ union. However, the Dem base in this seat is mostly low-turnout Hispanics. So there is no clear favorite in this race. The other general is for OK-LD-75, an R+16 (2012) seat in eastern Tulsa north of Broken Arrow. Realtor Tressa Nunley (R) should be favored over 2016 nominee and teacher Karen Gaddis (D), as Nunley has both the lean of the seat and better fundraising on her side, but an upset may be very possible with high Dem turnout. The primary is for OK-LD-46, an R+12 (2012) seat covering western Norman. Three Republicans are facing off; businessman and university lecturer Darin Chambers (R) looks like the slight front-runner over retired cop Charlie Samples (R) and businessman Jimmy Shannon (R), but any of the three could prevail. The winner will face 2016 nominee Jacob Rosencrants (D) in the general.

Senate:

MO-Sen: Republicans have their first serious candidate into the race to take on Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), but it definitely seems like a “C” list name for such a top-tier race. State Rep. Paul Curtman (R), who is termed-out of his exurban St. Louis seat in 2018, will run for the US Senate. Curtman was originally planning to run for MO-2 on the assumption that Rep. Ann Wagner (R) would seek the Senate seat, but when Wagner decided to run for re-election, Curtman decided to move up to the Senate race. Several more prominent Republicans, including AG Josh Hawley (R), are thought to be considering runs against the vulnerable McCaskill.

WV-Sen: As expected, AG Patrick Morrisey (R) announced his bid for Senate yesterday. Morrisey will face Rep. Evan Jenkins (R) in what could be a very competitive primary for the right to take on Sen. Joe Manchin (D). The fault lines seem to be that Jenkins is closer to establishment Republicans while Morrisey has more antiestablishment backing.

CO-Sen ’20, CO-2: Boulder DA and 2010 AG nominee Stan Garnett (D) will not run for Congress, saying he wants to finish his term as DA; Garnett endorsed 2014 SoS nominee Joe Neguse (D) for the seat. Garnett, however, will explore a run for US Senate in 2020, when Sen. Cory Gardner (R) will be up for re-election.

Governor:

AL-Gov: This GOP primary continues to get even more absurdly crowded, as State Sen. Bill Hightower (R) of the Mobile area is the latest candidate into the field. Hightower joins Ag Commissioner John McMillan (R), Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle (R), Jefferson County commissioner David Carrington (R), minister Scott Dawson (R), and businessman Josh Jones (R). PSC Chair Twinkle Cavanaugh (R) and Auditor Jim Zeigler (R) are also considering runs, while Gov. Kay Ivey (R) has not announced whether she will run for a full term. Ex-State Supreme Court Justice Sue Bell Cobb (D) and Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox (D) are in or considering runs on the D side.

CO-Gov, CO-7: In a significant surprise, Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) is dropping out of the gubernatorial race today – and will not seek a seventh term representing CO-7 either. Perlmutter’s hand was likely forced by the decision of fellow Rep. Jared Polis (D), who unlike Perlmutter is independently wealthy, to enter the race; Polis now looks like the clear front-runner for the D nod. Click for our full coverage of the decision.

IA-Gov: Former Gov. Vilsack CoS John Norris (D) is the latest Democrat into this crowded primary field. Norris joins State Sen. Nate Boulton (D), State Rep. Todd Prichard (D), ex-IADP chair Andy McGuire (D), ex-Iowa City Mayor Ross Wilburn (D), and 2014 State Auditor nominee Jon Neiderbach (D) in the primary. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is facing Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett (R) and Boone councilman Steven Ray (R) in the GOP primary.

ME-Gov: Appointed AG Janet Mills (D) will run for Governor. Mills, a former legislator, likely becomes a front-runner for the Dem nomination as she has been highly visible in office. She will face 2008 ME-1 candidate Adam Cote (D), lobbyist Betsy Sweet (D), and veteran Patrick Eisenhart (D) in the Dem primary; LePage admin official Mary Mayhew (R) and appointed State Treasurer Teresea Hayes (I) are also in the race. Many others are considering, but one candidate is bowing out of consideration; ex-State Senate Majority Leader Justin Alfond (D) announced last week he would forgo a bid.

NM-Gov, NM-2: Lands Commissioner Aubrey Dunn (R) announced he would not run for Governor after Rep. Steve Pearce (R) entered the race yesterday. Dunn announced he was backing Pearce and considering a run for NM-2 instead, but is also keeping open the possibility of bids for re-election or a seat on the state Public Service Commission; Dunn says he will make a final decision by next week. State Sen. Cliff Pirtle (R), who ran a little-noticed primary campaign in 2010 as a Some Dude before winning his State Senate seat, is also considering an NM-2 bid.

SD-Gov: Ex-State Rep. and 2014 candidate Lora Hubbel (R) will mount a second bid for Governor. Hubbel, a gadflyish antiestablishment conservative who took a fifth of the vote against popular Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R), seems likely to be little more than a third wheel in this primary against two “A” list contenders, Rep. Kristi Noem (R) and AG Marty Jackley (R). State Sen. Billie Sutton (D) is the likely Dem nominee.

WI-Gov: State Superintendent Tony Evers (D), who won re-election earlier this year by a large margin in a low-turnout non-partisan race, is considering a run for Governor. Evers could be a stronger choice to take on Gov. Scott Walker (R) than either of the other prominent Dems considering bids, left-wing Madison Mayor Paul Soglin (D) and little-known State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D).

House:

IL-13: Former Sen. Durbin staffer Betsy Dirksen-Londrigan (D) will seek the Dem nomination to challenge Rep. Rodney Davis (R). Dirksen-Londrigan may have establishment support from Dirksen’s network, but could face State Rep. Carol Ammons (D) in the primary. Davis has seemed entrenched in recent years as this purple seat covering the Springfield and Champaign areas has moved right.

MI-6: 2014/16 nominee Paul Clements (D) is running a third time against Rep. Fred Upton (R). Clements’s prior two runs against Upton were distinctly unimpressive, but he has received some national liberal support. This Kalamazoo-area purple seat has been trending right in recent years.

MI-8: Former DoD official Elissa Slotkin (D) will challenge Rep. Mike Bishop (R) in his light-red Lansing to exurban Detroit district. Slotkin, a former CIA agent, seems to have a good resume of national security experience, but has not lived in the district since childhood.

MN-1: Obama Defense official Dan Feehan (D) will seek Rep. Tim Walz’s (D) light-red open southern Minnesota seat. Feehan seems to have significant establishment support, but has essentially no ties to the seat (he grew up in the Twin Cities and spent the last few years in DC). He will face ex-State Sen. Vicki Jensen (D) and others in the Dem convention and/or primary. 2014/16 nominee Jim Hagedorn (R) is the only significant Republican in the race so far, but others are considering.

MO-2: Attorney Kelli Dunaway (D) will take on Rep. Ann Wagner (R) next year, and she has received the endorsement of 2016 nominee and ex-State Rep. Bill Otto (D). Democrats’ odds for this medium-red seat went down with Wagner deciding to run for re-election, but as an upscale suburban district it may still be a target.

NV-4: Las Vegas Councilman Stavros Anthony (R) will run for Congress against Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D) in this seat covering the northern suburbs of Las Vegas. Anthony, who just won re-election to his purple council seat, is a top-tier get for the GOP in this light-blue seat.

NM-1: Ex-US Attorney Damon Martinez (D) is the latest Dem into the race for this open medium-blue Albuquerque seat. Martinez has the profile to be a front-runner for the seat; he joins NMDP chair Deb Haaland (D), Albuquerque councilman Pat Davis (D), Edgewood councilman John Abrams (D), and others in this crowded primary.

NY-21: Ex-St. Lawrence County commissioner Tedra Cobb (D) will run for Congress, becoming the first candidate with elective experience in the race for the Dem nomination to take on Rep. Elise Stefanik (R). Stefanik’s odds of re-election in this light-red seat will once again be improved by the candidacy of 2014/2016 nominee Matt Funicello (G), who has routinely drawn significant vote shares.

NC-3: Craven County commissioner Scott Dacey (R) will challenge Rep. Walter Jones (R) in the GOP primary. Jones, by far the most moderate safe-seat Republican in the country, has turned back multiple GOP primary challenges in his rural eastern NC seat, though often by unimpressive margins. Dacey seems to be promising to be a more traditional conservative than Jones.

SD-AL: Democrats have a credible recruit for the open seat of Rep. Kristi Noem (R) in former judge Tim Bjorkman (D). Republicans have a primary here between SoS Shantel Krebs (R) and ex-Public Service Commissioner Dusty Johnson (R).

State & Local:

OK-Ins Comm: State Rep. Glen Mulready (R), a member of House leadership, has become the first candidate to declare a bid for Insurance Commissioner. Mulready looks likely to be front-runner for the post, which is open as incumbent John Doak (R) is termed out.

Raleigh-Mayor: Attorney Charles Francis (D) will run for mayor of Raleigh this October. Francis seems likely to run to the left of popular incumbent Nancy McFarlane (I), a center-left Indie who has generally run with Dem support in the non-partisan race.

San Bernardino-Mayor: City councilman John Valdiva (R) will run for Mayor next year, challenging incumbent Carey Davis (R), presenting the possibility of two Rs as the major candidates for mayor of the heavily Democratic city. Valdiva received an endorsement from ex-State Sen. Bob Dutton (R), now the county clerk, at his campaign kickoff.

Orange, FL-CE: Sheriff Jerry Demings (D), husband of US Rep. Val (D), will run for Orange County Executive next year. Incumbent Teresa Jacobs (R) is term-limited, and Demings looks likely to give Dems their best chance of taking over the top job in the large, blueing county covering most of the Orlando area..

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139 Comments

  • roguemapper July 11, 2017 at 7:54 am

    The so-called Commission on Election Integrity has suspended its request for voter data until a federal court decides whether the White House has done enough to protect voter privacy (yeah right). The data sent by Arkansas (the only state that has sent any data thus far) will be deleted.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/trump-voting-panel-tells-states-to-hold-off-sending-data-while-court-weighs-privacy-impact/2017/07/10/c4c837fa-6597-11e7-a1d7-9a32c91c6f40_story.html


    Dem NC-11

  • MosheM July 11, 2017 at 8:09 am

    Amazing roundup! A lot to digest.


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • shamlet July 11, 2017 at 8:43 am

      First working Monday of the new quarter always brings a ton of news. I imagine the next few days will be pretty big too.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • GerGOP July 11, 2017 at 8:17 am

    GERMANY-Poll:
    CDU/CSU 39%
    SPD 22%
    Linke 9%
    Greens 9%
    FDP 8%
    AfD 8%

    Merkel 51%
    Schulz 22%

    Poll done from 03.-07.07, so before the G20 Protests which has put the SPD in the defensive in some parts.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA July 11, 2017 at 8:22 am

      It looks like we are heading for either a traditional center-right coalition or a Jamaica coalition.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • GerGOP July 11, 2017 at 9:54 am

        Those are indeed the two most likely options. At this point. This will get closer again, though.
        I think the SPD will hit 30% again.

    • GerGOP July 11, 2017 at 11:56 am

      Speaking about the Left in general: The SPD, Greens and the Linke (including SPD Chancellor Candidate Martin Schulz) have engaged in some pretty aggressive historic revitionism. They are now saying that those who rioted in Hamburg during the G20 meeting (members of the Black Bloc) can’t be described as adhering to a left wing ideology because … and here it comes, gents: “The Left and violence are mutually exclusive”.
      Say what?

      • kewgardens July 11, 2017 at 4:41 pm

        Joseph Stalin and Mao say hello.

        • Son_of_the_South July 11, 2017 at 4:44 pm

          Don’t forget Pol Pot and the Kims!


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 11, 2017 at 4:58 pm

          IIRC, a YouGov poll last year showed that young Americans had a more positive than expected (though mostly negative) view of the two, probably since IIRC, about 20% of young Americans identified as Communist and another 25% as Socialist.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Tekzilla July 11, 2017 at 8:26 am

    Saddened by yesterdays CO-GOV news. I’ve always liked Perlmutter and I’ve never cared for Polis much.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • rdelbov July 11, 2017 at 11:59 am

      Polis IMO is the weaksest candidate the Ds could nominate in CO for Governor. He is the most liberal on environmental issues-plays well in Boulder but in other rural areas. He has also been a weak candidate in Denver suburbs that are part of his CD.

  • zbigreddogz July 11, 2017 at 8:52 am

    I’m rooting for ex-Public Service Commissioner Dusty Johnson in SD for the simple reason I think it would be awesome to have a guy with the name “Dusty” from the Great Planes as a Congressman.

    • Izengabe July 11, 2017 at 2:06 pm

      The I think it would be funny if kind of thinking when voting is how we ended up with President Trump


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • andyroo312 July 11, 2017 at 9:25 am

    Moderate businessman John Kingston (R) mulling MA-Sen bid https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2017/07/06/john-kingston-potential-opponent-for-elizabeth-warren-building-his-campaign/jnSD3iTp5aEZJIgc07LpKM/story.html

    In other words, Baker doesn’t want to deal with Diehl.


    MA-7

  • prsteve11 July 11, 2017 at 9:25 am

    Don’t know if this has been reported yet, but Morning Consult has a list of job approval for all 100 senator:

    https://morningconsult.com/july-2017-senator-rankings/

    Ones that stand out are Baldwin of WI and McCaskill of MO. Tester’s ratings are also ok but not great.


    SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • roguemapper July 11, 2017 at 9:30 am

      Jeff Flake definitely stands out as well.


      Dem NC-11

    • Tekzilla July 11, 2017 at 9:31 am

      Wow look at Flake, YIKES. Heller is in about the same position as McCaskill. Manchin is a political god as always. Cruz looks fine vs. Beto.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • krazen1211 July 11, 2017 at 12:16 pm

        Eh, Flake is in the same boat as McCain, who just won by 15.

        I think its the same case for both……they are irritating the Trumpish folks on the right.

    • segmentation_fault July 11, 2017 at 9:56 am

      Manchin and Heitkamp look great, Donnelly and Brown look decent, Tester looks ok, McCaskill looks bad.


      Bernie Bernstein

    • Son_of_the_South July 11, 2017 at 10:07 am

      Donnelly, Nelson, and Heitkamp look pretty strong. MCCaskill and Heller don’t look in as bad shape as I would have expected them to be. Baldwin looks way worse than I’d expect, and Casey does slightly as well. I guess that WI is still the political equivalent of the Somme.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA July 11, 2017 at 11:08 am

        I suspect Wisconsin will remain the political equivalent of the Somme for awhile.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

        • Son_of_the_South July 11, 2017 at 1:36 pm

          Yeah, and now that I think about it, NC might be even moreso.


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • MosheM July 11, 2017 at 11:00 am

      As shamlet has noted in the past, the approval ratings seem way too high across the board.


      29, M, R, NY-10

      • prsteve11 July 11, 2017 at 2:48 pm

        I agree. And some just don’t make sense. For instance, Brown in Ohio has a strong approval but that’s in direct contrast to a poll from yesterday. I think the polls are taken over too long of a period to be definitive.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • Ryan_in_SEPA July 11, 2017 at 9:44 am

    The one I don’t get is Pennsylvania. How can you not have an opinion of Senators Casey and Toomey? Casey has been an elected official since 1996. Toomey just won reelection.


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • rdw72777 July 11, 2017 at 10:09 am

      As a state PA has to have the combined 2 most boring Senators currently. The majority of Casey’s statewide wins have been over nobody’s (excludes Santorum but I probably could have beaten Santorum in 2000). Toomey has won his 2 state elections with 51% and 49% so it’s not surprising that people shrug their shoulders at the 2 of them.

      • Son_of_the_South July 11, 2017 at 10:11 am

        Nope. Delaware or Rhode Island probably takes that title (or maybe Idaho).


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • shamlet July 11, 2017 at 10:49 am

          Gotta go with Idaho. Reed may not get press but he’s at least a big-time policy workhorse on defense issues, while Carper occasionally casts a mavericky vote on fiscal issues. Risch and Crapo are old white party-line-vote backbenchers who will never face a competitive race… hard to get more boring than that.


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

          • HS July 11, 2017 at 3:21 pm

            Coons is sometimes not boring. Whitehouse is not boring. And Crapo has a non-boring name.

            I think PA wins this one. And it is especially interesting that they went from Specter and Santorum to Casey and Toomey. Exciting to boring.

      • Republican Michigander July 11, 2017 at 10:46 am

        Boring can be good sometimes.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA July 11, 2017 at 11:02 am

          Boring and occasionally breaking the party line is a good quality in a swing state.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • rdw72777 July 11, 2017 at 11:40 am

            Well yes but that’s why you find people don’t have an opinion…they’re bland as the day is long.

      • TennesseeMike July 11, 2017 at 12:28 pm

        Santorum won in 2000. I think you mean 2006.


        TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

        • rdw72777 July 11, 2017 at 12:30 pm

          Well yeah if you want my comment to make sense 🙂

    • Red Oaks July 11, 2017 at 1:24 pm

      There are a lot of other Senators with higher rates of ” no opinion” though. Gary Peters actually won the title of most anonymous Senator with 33% having no opinion of him.


      MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

  • edtorres04 July 11, 2017 at 10:04 am

    FYI the Maryland born Matt Rosendale will make a decision in the next 30 days according to Rollcall. Tester should be the favorite.

    Run Rob O’Neill!

  • MosheM July 11, 2017 at 11:31 am

    Holy Cow!

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/884796275408777216

    We always assumed that they weren’t this crazy… Alas…


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • roguemapper July 11, 2017 at 11:36 am

      Speak for yourself. I never assumed that they weren’t this crazy…


      Dem NC-11

      • dforston July 11, 2017 at 11:39 am

        Crazy or stupid?

        • rdw72777 July 11, 2017 at 11:43 am

          I go with hilarious. I mean I really don’t care about this silliness as it’s going to go anywhere in a GOP-controlled congress but I mean seriously who sits down and composes that email to/from someone associated with a POTUS campaign.

          On the plus side for as much as we all often use the phrase “it’s not the lie but the cover-up” there seems to be a lot of coming clean here…I don’t know if the “cover-up” has yet to be un-earthed or if this is just it but I’d wager it’s the former.

      • MosheM July 11, 2017 at 11:56 am

        But this stupid.

        As we speak, I’m sending emails from my personal and work emails to the Mossad and GRU to offer to work for them…. Lol!

        It’s this stupid!


        29, M, R, NY-10

        • Left Coast Libertarian July 11, 2017 at 1:29 pm

          It really is. Jr was such a neophyte that he didn’t realize what a big deal it’d be to get oppo research from the Russians, but if you’re going to do it you sure as heck aren’t going to get it from this woman. Jr may be saved because he tried to collude with someone who had nothing instead of actually knowing who did and getting in touch with them.

          What he did was unethical and there might (or might not) be a campaign finance violation here, but I don’t see a criminal act.

          • rdw72777 July 11, 2017 at 1:33 pm

            As of 1:30 today there’s really nothing close to a criminal act.

            It’s the rare situation where the person who tiptoes to the edge of criminality is saved because his/her “accomplice” turns out to not be able to deliver what pretty assuredly would have been criminally-obtained information.

            • Left Coast Libertarian July 11, 2017 at 2:12 pm

              It’s interesting that you put it that way. If Jr had received criminally-obtained information he’d be complicit, but it’s not unusual for someone to have oppo research and most of it is obtained legally.

              Let’s step back and remember that many of the collusion allegations were originated from the Steele dossier. Someone commissioned Steele, a foreign national, to obtain opposition research on Trump. No one has asked whether it was obtained legally, so I’m guessing that wasn’t a concern. Getting oppo research from a foreign entity seemed normal enough to the people who paid for it and hasn’t concerned anyone who has commented on it. So is it normal?

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 11, 2017 at 4:23 pm

            A campaign finance violation is only possible if you somehow classify in-person oral communication as a political contribution, which I’m pretty sure is the best argument for rendering our ENTIRE campaign finance law unconstitutional (unconstitutionally vague).

            Oppo research is almost certainly protected speech because it is quite literally by definition only about public newsworthy figures. Any regulation of oppo research should thus be presumptively unconstitutional.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • roguemapper July 11, 2017 at 3:38 pm

          Hmm… Perhaps I’ve been too subtle in expressing my contempt for the Donald and his misconceived spawn!

          (Marla’s kid is ok.)


          Dem NC-11

          • Lucas Black July 11, 2017 at 7:04 pm

            What’s wrong with poor little Barron?

            • roguemapper July 12, 2017 at 6:59 am

              Barron’s too young to really make an impression but Melania seems to be doing a decent job of shielding him. Not to mention the Donald will probably eat one Big Mac too many before he can do much lasting damage…


              Dem NC-11

            • californianintexas July 12, 2017 at 1:18 pm

              We don’t hear much on him or Tiffany.


              34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • Ryan_in_SEPA July 11, 2017 at 11:56 am

      The interesting part is this really a crime or not. I am not sure this violates the Logan Act


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • MaxwellsDemon July 11, 2017 at 12:03 pm

        I’m not sure the Logan Act is even constitutional. In any case, this is just mind numbingly stupid. Guess we know why Trump has always looked down on his eldest kid, he’s a complete moron

        • Manhatlibertarian July 11, 2017 at 12:22 pm

          Stupid, stupid, stupid. But other key questions to answer. Did Kushner and Manafort also know this person claimed to have info from the Russian Govt on Hillary in order to help the Trump campaign. Did Trump not know about this meeting or if he knew about it did he know a person representing the Russian Govt was offering to provide negative info on Hillary? And most important did nothing concrete come out of the meeting as Trump Jr. claims or is that not the case?

          And finally who are the 3 people supposedly in the White House who are leaking all this info to the NY Times?

          • rdw72777 July 11, 2017 at 12:29 pm

            Is it really a “leak” if it was this stupid? I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that one of Trump/Kushner/Manafort probably bragged about this meeting’s potential before it happened and that’s why it seems like there are so many sources. I’d also find it hard to believe Trump didn’t know about the potential subject at hand (wasn’t he claiming there was big bad news about Hillary forthcoming that the public wasn’t even aware of ) but I doubt 100% he knew about the actual meeting at all.

            But I think the real issue is that you can get a meeting with POTUS’ son without so much as even providing your name so long as you say you can help him/them politically and you are referred by someone they trust. And of course the adoption program in the middle of a POTUS campaign I mean LOL.

            Nothing illegal but certainly reason to worry…

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 11, 2017 at 12:34 pm

      It’s remarkably badly-timed for the opponents of Trump. The media has been going on about Russia for so long, it’s hard to imagine anyone outside of DailyKos or NeoCon thinktanks really caring. People would have probably cared if they brought this up in February. Not in July. Especially considering how low trust in the media has collapsed since then.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • rdw72777 July 11, 2017 at 12:38 pm

        LOL…it’s always the media. Trump Jr is releasing the damn emails, shall we presume he’s an illicit arm of DailyKos.

        • prsteve11 July 11, 2017 at 3:03 pm

          No but the media is blowing it out of proportion. Every time there’s a release of something like this, it’s suddenly the end of the Trump Administration. Liberals denounce President Trump and his family and start rubbing their hands with glee that the end is nigh. This time Tim Kaine said that it might be ‘treason’ to which Orrin Hatch said that he had to be kidding. Even CNN’s biased Toobin said treason is ridiculous. Kaine should learn to keep his big mouth shut, especially considering how bitter he clearly still is about losing to someone like Donald Trump.

          But folks, we need to get used to how this works. 2 or 3 days of non-stop media coverage and then a crescendo of a not-so-smoky smoking gun that is supposed to be the end of the Trump Administration, but the President weathers it and it all blows over. It’s painful for conservatives but it plays out like this over and over and over again. I doubt most Americans are even paying this very much attention.


          SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • Manhatlibertarian July 11, 2017 at 1:56 pm

        While it is true that hardcore Trump supporters may dismiss this as media hype, still it is the first concrete instance of possible collusion with the Russian gov’t by Trump Jr’s own admission in posting the email chain. Even the news anchor I was watching on Fox said what was in the e mail doesn’t help Trump Jr’s position. But again the key question was what really happened at the meeting. Did nothing come of it per Trump Jr. or was there some agreement for the Russian Gov’t to provide negative info on Clinton in return for move favorable policies toward Russia on things like sanctions if Trump was elected? That is the big enchilada from all of this. If there was no collusion agreed to at the meeting, then it was a poor move to even just meet with the Russian government linked lawyer but not necessarily illegal. But if there is evidence collusion was agreed to at the meeting – oh boy! One thing that makes me think there may not have been is the meeting only ran about 20 minutes and Kushner apparently left in the middle of it. If there was some agreement on a tit for tat for Russian negative info on Hillary I would have thought the meeting would have lasted longer and Kushner would not have left in the middle of it. But I’m sure this will be thoroughly investigated.

        • kewgardens July 11, 2017 at 5:01 pm

          How do you investigate this meeting? Assuming that it was not recorded, you have to rely on the testimony of the parties in attendance. And, at this point, the participants (including the Russian lawyer) seem to agree that no actual information regarding Hillary was conveyed and that there was no agreement between the Trump campaign and another party to “collude.”

      • Vosmyorka July 11, 2017 at 5:17 pm

        The issue with this sort of thing isn’t necessarily that it loses Trump very much support, but a constant drip-drip-drip of accusations relating to Russia and his relations with the intelligence community have the effect of greatly firming up his disapprovals; Trump is at about ~54% disapproval among registered voters, but his strong disapproval among the same registered voters is at around ~48% or so (and over 50 in most polls that have overall disapproval over 55, which is a fair number), and has risen from a figure in the high 30s when he took office. That’s a ludicrous number — one that GWB didn’t hit until late 2007, and that Obama never hit at all.

        Whereas less than half of Trump’s approvals are “strong approve”; most are moderate. There’s the source of your enthusiasm gap right there, and it’s clearly getting worse with time.


        Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 11, 2017 at 5:24 pm

          I remember Obama hitting low 40’s in strong disapproval pretty early (and when you looked at RVs, his approval rating was pretty much about equally bad). Strong disapproval of Obama was consistently much higher than strong approval for almost all of his presidency except the last two years.

          Course, that’s not particularly good for Trump since 2010 went so badly for Democrats.

          The drip actually seems far less bad than the alternative. The media is spending all of their time focusing on Russia. That seems far better than spending their time focusing on the Republican healthcare bill, which is sitting at around 15% approval. Thus my adage is that every news story about the Trump administration is good for conservatism because it distracts the American people from conservative policy.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • Vosmyorka July 11, 2017 at 6:07 pm

            Obama’s strong disapprovals peaked in late 2014 in the high 30s (I think 39 was the highest figure recorded — certainly it was by Gallup); his strong approvals also reached a low in the high teens, so even lower than Trump is now. But Obama didn’t reach depths of strong approval below 25 in his first term at all, and I don’t think he ever hit a disapproval of 40.

            Trump is in quite a worse spot, and nowhere near as far into his term. Though you’re right that Obama was no paragon of popularity.


            Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 11, 2017 at 7:28 pm

              Well, we’re both looking at the same polls. Gallup presidential approval polls are “all adults” though, so Obama getting 39% strong disapproval is actually really bad among registered voters, and even worse among likely voters.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • Vosmyorka July 11, 2017 at 7:53 pm

                Ah, yeah, you’ve got a point there. It probably would’ve been low-40s at its peak in that case, in which case Obama’s worst moment in terms of strong disapprove/strong approve margin is about the same, or only a little better, than Trump’s now, though the intensity with Trump is higher on both sides and this seems less aberrational for Trump.


                Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

          • HS July 11, 2017 at 6:08 pm

            One of the reasons conservative policy is not popular is that you have virtually no one talking it up, and everyone is talking it down. The GOP leadership is both uninterested, and in McConnells case, incapable of doing so. Trump is not really a conservative, and he is usually a poor persuader anyway.

            This plus electability is why I favored Rubio. The past 2 (and now 3) Republicans have been totally unable to use the bully pulpit effectively.

    • Izengabe July 11, 2017 at 2:27 pm

      Is it me or does that letter read like it came from a Nigerian Prince. I half expected that it ask Don Jr. for his bank account numbers so he could wire him a deposit to secure the confidential information.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • rdelbov July 11, 2017 at 12:03 pm

    I have learned to be humble when expressing what I will think will happen in future elections. My initial sense is that Jenkins will win this GOP primary for senate and IMO has an excellent chance of winning in the fall. I guess we will see.

  • dforston July 11, 2017 at 1:40 pm

    Excellent….. @AlexNBCNews – “WOW –> McConnell announces “the Senate will delay the start of the August recess until the third week of August.””

    • Manhatlibertarian July 11, 2017 at 2:05 pm

      On the one hand this is good news in that it gives McConnell more time to work out a healthcare bill compromise. On the other hand it may just be a futile effort to get to 50 votes, so it could just be a waste of time when other legislation could be attended to. We will see.

      • HS July 11, 2017 at 3:18 pm

        I am glad they did this because they had to do it. It would look just horrible if they went home without passing something or in any way making progress.

        The incompetence of the GOP in the House and Senate is just astonishing.

      • kewgardens July 11, 2017 at 5:02 pm

        At the very least, it gives McConnell more time to push nominations through the Senate.

    • andyroo312 July 11, 2017 at 2:56 pm

      I’m just saying, there’s still time to dump Trump, make Pence president and keep the GOP brand healthy enough to hold Congress in 2018.


      MA-7

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 11, 2017 at 3:32 pm

        More like the GOP ceases to exist as a party as 40% of the party base sits out the 2018 and 2020 elections, giving Democrats 380-390 seats in the House of Representatives.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • MosheM July 11, 2017 at 4:05 pm

          It’s amazing how you will still defend him even in the face of today’s admitted evidence by Trump Jr.


          29, M, R, NY-10

          • dforston July 11, 2017 at 5:02 pm

            Cults have that affect on people.

          • kewgardens July 11, 2017 at 5:04 pm

            Knowing what you know today, would you vote for Hillary or Trump?

          • Izengabe July 11, 2017 at 7:14 pm

            I was a pretty strong #NeverTrumper in 2016 but I will defend Trump here. This whole so called scandal reeks of rank amateurism on the part of the Trump campaign. 12 months before Don Jr. became a major advisor in a Presidential campaign this guy couldn’t figure out how to register to vote properly in NY. Its pretty clear he had no idea what he was doing and the Trump campaign did not have enough serious professional people around to say WTF you shouldn’t be taking meetings like this. I blame incompetence not criminality.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • MikeFL July 11, 2017 at 7:35 pm

              If this had just been Jr., I could believe that, but Manafort was in that meeting too and received the emails. Also what number amendment is this to Jared’s security clearance disclosure? Every time we think this is the end of the smoke, something else drops.


              26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

              • Left Coast Libertarian July 11, 2017 at 8:01 pm

                Yes, they were cced on the emails, but did they read them? If they did, did they say anything to Jr about them? I’m guessing they didn’t even bother because Jr was Donald’s son and he could do what he wanted. Both participants have described the meeting as not containing oppo research. Jared may need to amend his security clearance disclosure and if failing to disclose this meeting is criminal then he goes down. But this hardly seems like a big deal.

                There are definitely ethical questions here but I’m not sure there’s legal ones.

                The thing about this “smoke” is that what’s considered smoke is very broad. People in office or running for office talked to Russians. Everyone does. If we considered that smoke then many Democrats should be investigated. This bombshell involves someone no one has evidence was working for Putin and where there’s no information shared.

                • MikeFL July 11, 2017 at 9:15 pm

                  This alone probably still doesn’t rise to the level of criminality, but it is getting worse and is clearly unethical. It’s going to result in the expansion of the Congressional and Mueller investigations, which could lead to more instances like this. Plus, with this episode out there, the constant collusion denials, even if they end up true, become less believable. This isn’t in a vacuum; we have Manafort’s dealings, the entire Flynn saga, and other satellite advisors doing questionable things that are under investigation (Page/Stone/etc.). Again, the drip drip drip on this gets worse by the week.


                  26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

                  • Left Coast Libertarian July 11, 2017 at 11:47 pm

                    More instances like this? There’s nothing criminal here. If you have 10 non-criminal meetings it doesn’t add to something criminal. Manafort’s dealings with the Ukrainian government occurred before he was involved in the campaign and were independent of the campaign. I have no idea if Manafort did something illegal but if he did that’s his problem. Sure, it reflects poorly on Trump but his reputation isn’t sterling. And Flynn may have done something illegal but those were his actions, like lying, not the campaign’s.

                    Sure, Page and Stone are shady characters. I have no idea if they did anything wrong, but Stone was never part of the campaign and Page’s involvement was pretty much a name on a list. All this tells us something we already know, that Trump is sloppy and surrounds himself with questionable characters. None of that has anything to do with the campaign or Trump’s actions while President. The guy bragged about groping women and still got elected. That’s actually something he himself did. None of this rises to that.

        • Vosmyorka July 11, 2017 at 5:23 pm

          For 2018, yes. For 2020, maybe. For 2022, no. Unified Democratic control of Congress will have those voters returning to the GOP quite quickly, and considering the preferences of under-45 GOP primary voters in 2016 (who had ludicrous swings to whoever the anti-Trump flavor was regardless of ideology, outside of a few areas like the Upper Midwest, where there wasn’t an age gap, and New England, where it was slightly reversed), it’s very difficult to imagine a Trumpist figure winning the nomination again. Though NH as an early state will be more of advantage than it was in 2016, going forward.


          Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

        • krazen1211 July 11, 2017 at 5:32 pm

          Nothing has really moved on this in a year.

          The lame ‘dump Trump at the convention’ theory went basically nowhere because there is no viable alternative who has the loyalty of our voters. Everyone basically conceded that a year ago. That really hasn’t changed, and until it does, the same things are going to happen.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 11, 2017 at 2:34 pm

    The left-liberal honeymoon with Emmanuel Macron is over. Liberals are unspeakably furious with Macron’s G20 speech, where he argued that a stalled demographic transition in Africa was a serious problem.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/macron-g20-angry-reaction-to-emmanuel-macrons-remark-that-africa-has-a-civilizational-problem/

    There’s actually a certain irony because if you look at the actual demographic data, the parts of Africa with a stalled demographic transition are almost all in former French Africa (which generally has worse governments because French colonialism was just less competent).


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • krazen1211 July 11, 2017 at 4:08 pm

      Is this the ‘too many babies’ remark that would be called blatantly racist if a conservative made it? Then again, I guess Merkel got sort of a pass on gay marriage…We know the left gives their folks a pass on their litmus tests.

  • LVGOP July 11, 2017 at 4:50 pm

    I am shocked at how stupid these people are. Up to this point, I have always given Trump the benefit of the doubt, but now I can’t. It’s his Campaign, his family, his problem. These people tow the line dangerously close to treason if the meeting had given them hard facts. I don’t Trust Trump after this. Incompetence is not a defense. Not at the level of the Presidency. Mr. President, clean house.


    R/32/NV-3

    • kewgardens July 11, 2017 at 5:08 pm

      If the Clinton campaign (or the Democratic Party) gained access to the Steele dossier, would that qualify as “dangerously close to treason”?

    • zbigreddogz July 11, 2017 at 5:26 pm

      I have the advantage of never having trusted him. At all. Even a little.

      That said, I’m still taking a wait and see approach. The media has jumped the gun so many times that I’m skeptical. And Trump Jr.’s tweet was so weird I almost have to think there’s some weird bait-you strategy going on.

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 11, 2017 at 5:29 pm

        “Weird bait-you strategy”

        I’m pretty sure more Americans approve of Vladimir Putin than the GOP healthcare bill.

        I wonder if the GOP healthcare bill is the least popular act of Congress ever passed in American history. Since its closest competitor is probably TARP and it seems less popular than TARP.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

        • zbigreddogz July 11, 2017 at 5:31 pm

          Huh?

          Even assuming true…what’s that have to do with anything?

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 11, 2017 at 5:34 pm

            One argument I’ve heard is that a lot of Trump antics are intentional in order to obfuscate and distract the American people from a much more unpopular conservative policy agenda. Thus a bait-you strategy like you suggested. Trump’s approval ratings may be 40/60, but that’s a lot better than the vast majority of policies pushed by the GOP, including this healthcare bill and the most likely tax reform they think of.

            In many ways, the Trump administration has been very very conservative, and I wonder if Trump showmanship pulls the presidential approval towards his personal character appeal/repulsion (I guess 40/60) instead of the appeal/repulsion of conservative public policies (which would probably be closer to a 25-75 thing).

            Remember, even at its nadir, Obamacare still polled 40/60. The GOP plan is polling at less than half of that. It’s remarkable that Trump’s RV approvals are even holding in the low 40’s considering the rotting policy corpse he’s handcuffed to.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • HS July 11, 2017 at 7:49 pm

              Once again, there is no one actually promoting any conservative policies. If you can’t beat someone with no one, you also can’t win an argument if you refuse to make your argument. Republicans keep choosing Presidents – Bush, Bush II, and Trump – who are not really conservative and also can’t argue their way out of a paper bag. As always, I am waiting for my Republican Bill Clinton (minus the sexual deviancy and serial dishonesty).

              Btw, I am no expert on health care, or the Senate bill, and I suspect it is not particularly conservative. However, if it is or it isn’t, the point is the GOP doesn’t have effective public communicators both willing and able to make our arguments.

              • LVGOP July 11, 2017 at 10:20 pm

                To Be clear, I said if he had received information from these people I think he would have come close to it. But he didn’t. But he also expected to. I just can’t even begin to wonder what went through his head that this was a good idea. I know 20-year old organizers out of college who have more political sense than this guy. It’s just bafflingly stupid


                R/32/NV-3

    • segmentation_fault July 11, 2017 at 6:07 pm

      Don Jr. is a huge dummy but equally important here is that Jared participated in this meeting and, for the second time, did not report it when he was applying for top secret clearance to join Trump’s admin. That seems like a real crime, but I guess he thinks daddy will pardon him.

      The saving grace for Trump is that we don’t have any actual recordings of Putin giving him info on Hillary. (Yet.) Almost everyone in Trump’s family and campaign has been implicated in collusion with Russia except him.


      Bernie Bernstein

      • Manhatlibertarian July 11, 2017 at 8:13 pm

        To convict someone for not reporting a meeting with a Russian on a security clearance form (like Kushner) you would have to show that the omission was intentional and not inadvertent. That is not impossible to prove but is difficult. By the way Trump Jr. apparently cced both Kushner and Manafort with these emails with Goldstone before the meeting, so they knew what the purpose was, which is no surprise. Since there is no recording of the meeting as long as all the participants stick to the story that the Russian lawyer had no information of value to give it would also be hard to prove collusion IMO. In the Trump email exchange with Goldstone it is mentioned that the Russians had information incriminating Hillary and her dealings with Russia. I don’t recall anything serious of this nature “incriminating Hillary” in any of the email dumps about the DNC etc. Her main problem was her carelessness with her private server and classified documents; that’s what cost her votes.

        It also seems to me that there is a “5th column” within the Trump White House that seeks to undercut the administration whenever possible; the 3 sources the NY Times cited knew exactly what was in the Trump-Goldstone email exchange so they must be relatively high ranking people. These people then may be in position in the future to provide more damaging information about the Trump Administration. Of course there is also the possibility that the source of this negative info about the Trump Administration is the intelligence community.

        • MaxwellsDemon July 11, 2017 at 8:22 pm

          There’s a few decent possibilities for who leaked it.

          The worst one is that the Russians are leaking this to turn up the heat on the White House to get rid of the sanctions and play ball, with the implicit threat they they are going to start leaking out more and more damning emails over time if things dont change.

          The second is that Kushner or Manafort leaked it themselves because they knew this was going to come out and need to downplay their own involvement in the meeting for the purposes of their own legal issues.

          Third is that somebody hacked Donnie’s emails and leaked it. Not entirely unsurprising or unlikely, the Trump admin is filled with amateurs who dont understand a thing about opsec. Could be part of the intel community.

          Fourth is that Lewandowski leaked it. Why? Who the hell knows but that’s what Roger Stone thinks.

          • Manhatlibertarian July 11, 2017 at 9:29 pm

            Another theory I have heard is that the ultimate target was Kushner, because Don Jr is involved with the Trump company now not the White House and Manafort was fired months ago. So the source of the emails may be someone in the White House who wanted to see Kushner’s wings clipped in a power struggle for influence. But again the NY Times is claiming three sources and if that is true it seems to go beyond a power struggle of one individual against Kushner for influence. So what is the motivation of these three people with the leaks; do they want to see Trump pushed out and Pence take over? Or again is the true source of the leaks from the intelligence community not the White House?

    • Left Coast Libertarian July 11, 2017 at 8:05 pm

      People throw around the word “treason” and don’t know what it means. You can only commit treason by working for a country that the United States is at war with. Thus, giving the Soviets our secrets during the Cold War wasn’t treason. It was certainly illegal. When the Chinese gave money to the DNC in 1996 it was illegal but no one committed treason by accepting the money. This doesn’t even involve an illegal act.

      Junior acted unethically and that shouldn’t be excused. But treason? That’s nonsense.

  • MosheM July 11, 2017 at 5:05 pm

    Some #MOSen movement: AG Josh Hawley’s camp puts out statement that he talked to VP, giving run “serious consideration” https://t.co/5ZxIjbcWfD


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • kewgardens July 11, 2017 at 5:10 pm

      Ah, the kabuki dance. “I REALLY, REALLY wanted to finish my term as AG, but the Veep said it was my patriotic duty to run for the Senate. And who am I to disagree?”

      • MosheM July 11, 2017 at 5:54 pm

        haha


        29, M, R, NY-10

        • BostonPatriot July 11, 2017 at 6:32 pm

          Now he has to pray and talk to his family about it, manufacture some accomplishments as AG over the next couple of months, work with NRSC PR to AstroTurf a “draft Hawley” campaign, and declare on October 1 to take full advantage of Q4.

          • Izengabe July 11, 2017 at 7:17 pm

            @BOSTONPATRIOT we need a like comment on RRH because this comment of yours is awesome because it is so true!


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • StatenIslandTest July 11, 2017 at 5:17 pm

    NJ-LG (R): Guadagno looking at Woodcliff Mayor Carlos Rendo. This may be help in Bergen County and hopefully attract Latino voters:
    https://www.insidernj.com/source-rendo-consideration-guadagno-lg-choice/


    31, Jersey City

    • zbigreddogz July 11, 2017 at 5:32 pm

      I wish I thought Kim Gudagno had a chance. But I don’t.

      • shamlet July 11, 2017 at 5:36 pm

        Yeah, Mayor of a town of 5K really does start to smell bottom-of-the-barrel-ish.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • roguemapper July 11, 2017 at 5:40 pm

          I feel a bit sorry for Kim Guadagno trying to run for office under the literally yuge shadows of Chris Christie and the Donald.


          Dem NC-11

      • Son_of_the_South July 11, 2017 at 5:37 pm

        I have to agree, sadly.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • Manhatlibertarian July 11, 2017 at 8:28 pm

          But Guadagno was accused by a female Dem mayor (can’t remember the name – was a North Jersey city, possibly Hoboken but not sure) of threatening to have the Christie Administration not support a key development project in the city unless the mayor endorsed Christie. Of course this is a “she said/she said” kind of thing and Guadagno denies she said this, but it does seem to fit in with using threats to elected officials to get endorsements for Christie’s re-election.

          • Manhatlibertarian July 11, 2017 at 8:42 pm

            A correction the threat was to cut off hurricane relief grants for Hoboken by Guadagno unless the mayor (Dawn Zimer) agreed to support a big development project in the city that the Christie Admin wanted; it did not involve Christie’s re-election support. Guadagno denied making the threat, but it does fit in with the way the Christie Administration operated.

    • andyroo312 July 11, 2017 at 6:01 pm

      Good luck cracking 43 percent.


      MA-7

      • shamlet July 11, 2017 at 6:04 pm

        No, she’ll probably get around there just because NJ is so inelastic.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • StatenIslandTest July 11, 2017 at 7:45 pm

          For her to drop below that Murphy would have to make serious incursions into Morris, Monmouth, Ocean and Somerset or absolutely max-out inner suburbs and cities. Somerset is a possibility based on Presidential trends and sour grapes with Ciattarelli. Monmouth is both their home county but Trump held up decently there. This could be the year Bergen goes to 58 pct Dem which is dangerous for GOP prospects long term.


          31, Jersey City

  • shamlet July 11, 2017 at 5:58 pm

    One word re: the Oklahoma specials. Win or lose SD-44 today, I think that seat is going to have to be conceded in 2022. I was probably generous in calling most of that seat “lower middle class” – from a cursory Google Street View analysis it seems pretty slummy. It’s only an R-leaning seat through gerrymandering a small tail into deep-red exurbs and low Hispanic turnout.


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • GoBigRedState July 11, 2017 at 9:03 pm

      Looks like lose-for both SD-44 and LD-75. Don’t know what it is about those Oklahoma special elections. Democrats seem to really get their voters out for them, but they still fare poorly in general elections.


      45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

      • shamlet July 11, 2017 at 9:10 pm

        OK Teachers are really crazy motivated because of the budget cuts.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Manhatlibertarian July 11, 2017 at 9:51 pm

          Teachers were also the key factor in the Dems taking the NY 9th AD from the Repubs in the May special election. They could pour $ and volunteers into the district against a poorly funded GOP candidate for a special election, greatly outspending him.

      • MosheM July 11, 2017 at 10:26 pm

        The making of a wave.


        29, M, R, NY-10

        • prsteve11 July 12, 2017 at 1:39 am

          You mean like the one in GA-06?


          SC-03, Conservative Republican

        • shamlet July 12, 2017 at 6:39 am

          Democrats also won two specials in OK in 2015.


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

          • MosheM July 12, 2017 at 6:49 am

            Yes, but the sum of the evidence is…


            29, M, R, NY-10

      • prsteve11 July 12, 2017 at 1:41 am

        The DKos folks are making these wins sound like 2006. I guess after the Ossoff fiasco, that’s all they’ve got.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • MosheM July 11, 2017 at 7:15 pm

    .@JimmyGomezCA (D-#ca34) sworn in by Speaker Ryan to U.S. House, which now has 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats. #ut03 (Chaffetz-R) vacant https://t.co/zYGJMqQwDq


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • prsteve11 July 11, 2017 at 9:04 pm

      When is the special for UT-03?


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • shamlet July 11, 2017 at 9:13 pm

        August 15 Primary, November 7 General. All the dates can be found on our Election Calendar.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • prsteve11 July 12, 2017 at 1:33 am

          Thanks!


          SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • kewgardens July 11, 2017 at 9:26 pm

    Not sure if this was discussed on the site, but last month, liberal, Clinton-appointed Judge Ann Williams of the Seventh Circuit took senior status. That means there are now three vacancies on this eleven member Circuit Court. And four of the eight active judges were born in the 1930s, meaning they are at least 78 years old. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Court_of_Appeals_for_the_Seventh_Circuit

    Trump may get a chance to completely reshape the Seventh Circuit for decades.

    • BostonPatriot July 11, 2017 at 9:31 pm

      No kidding about that last part–the Seventh has been Reagan’s court for 30 years, and it may soon become Trump’s court (in the way you could call the 6th, and 8th GWB’s, the 4th and 11th Obama’s, and the 9th Carter’s, at least still in spirit).

      A 7th circuit judgeship in Chicago is an enormous prize that will have a long list of contenders, but I wonder if Trump might nominate someone from downstate, either now or in the likely event that one or more of the other 4 Chicago judges takes senior status. Upstate NY has generally had at least 1 seat on the 2nd circuit, and the Texas, Florida, and California seats are well distributed throughout those states.

      • kewgardens July 11, 2017 at 9:58 pm

        I think that Wisconsin needs quite a bit more representation on the Seventh Court. And elevating some Wisconsin judges would certainly be a smart political move for Trump.

      • krazen1211 July 11, 2017 at 10:51 pm

        Well, IL judges are facing blue slips. One of the ways around that is to pluck someone and put them on DC circuit to bypass blue slips.

    • rdelbov July 11, 2017 at 10:06 pm

      I did not catch her notice of senior status. She apparently make her decision without a lot of press attention. Ironically she was appointed to the federal district court by Ronald Reagan but she maintained a liberal record. Yes the 7th will likely stay a conservative court for years and likely the DOJ/White house will work hard to find a top flight nominee.

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy July 11, 2017 at 11:15 pm

      Posner will have to be carried out of the courthouse in a casket. A pity, because to this date, he is the only public official I would ever and have ever insulted to their face.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Republican Michigander July 11, 2017 at 11:07 pm

    I just got back from our LCRP’s Summer Social event. We had good turnout and both of our US Senate candidates (Lena Epstein and Bob Young) were there. They spoke briefly and kept things positive and did not take any shots at each other (which I was happy about). Afterwards, they were speaking one on one with a lot of our activists. Both spoke well, and didn’t use notes.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

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