Missouri is one of the few states where we didn’t max out in 2010 and we will have a chance at a trifecta in 2020. In 2010 we managed to override the veto of Jay Nixon to eliminate Russ Carnahan’s district and make a 7-2 map with the help of Emmanuel Cleaver who liked his district and told State Reps in his district to approve the map. This meant Cleaver had to be kept safe. But now, with Eric Greitens winning the Governorship, Cleaver should be an immediate target, as he’s sitting in a D+6 (2016 only) district surrounded by two R+20 and R+18 districts with an R+25 district further south to draw from.
My priorities with this map were
- Eliminate Cleaver’s seat and replace with a seat likely to be won by a Republican
- Strengthen MO-02 district as she has by far the weakest Republican seat in the state that moved away from us in 2016. Trump won MO-02 by 10. His second weakest Republican district in the state was MO-06 which he won by 31.
- Avoid a lawsuit regarding to VRA protections
Here’s the Map:
Here’s what I did to each district
MO-01 (Dark blue): Kept exactly the same. I think this district is losing population, so it may need to gain precincts, which could be good for us as it could take the worst precincts in MO-02.
2008 Results: Obama 80.2-McCain 18.9; 2012 Romney 2 Party %: 20.7%
MO-02 (Green). Removed some of the areas from Crystal Lake Park to Clarkson Valley which swung the worst against Trump. Kept a decent amount of St. Louis County in this district. Added all of St. Charles County and most of Warren, Franklin and Lincoln Counties. This becomes more of a safe Republican exurban district than a safe, but possibly shaky in the future suburban Republican district like it is now. My guess is Trump won it by 20?
2008 Results: McCain 53.4-Obama 45.6; 2012 Romney 2 Party %: 59.1%
MO-03 (Purple):Took in the worst swinging areas of MO-02, but removed the “arm” out to central Missouri and the parts of St. Charles County. Added all of Jefferson County and goes southeast all the way down to Cape Girardeau. I like this district because it combined the areas most likely to swing against us in St. Louis county with the areas that swung massively towards Trump. Trump probably won it by 25-30.
2008 Results: McCain 52.9-Obama 46.0; 2012 Romney 2 Party %: 58.8%
MO-04 (Red): MO-04 took in all the black areas of Kansas City to avoid splitting up the black population of MO-05 to avoid a lawsuit. It goes from the black areas of KC straight down into heavily Republican southwest Missouri going as far south as Barton County and going as far east as Cole County. Boone County is not in this district anymore. Trump probably won this by 20-25.
2008 Results: McCain 51.3-Obama 47.5; 2012 Romney 2 Party %: 56.8%
MO-05 (Yellow): The new MO-05 goes from Independence and some KC suburbs to rural central Missouri
2008 Results: McCain 51.8-Obama 46.8; 2012 Romney 2 Party %: 56.7%
MO-06 (Teal): This takes in all the white Democrat areas of KC and loses some KC suburbs and rural areas to MO-05. This is probably the most vulnerable Republican in the state now but Trump probably still won this handily.
2008 Results: McCain 49.9-Obama 48.5; 2012 Romney 2 Party %: 55.7%
MO-07 (Gray): Basically the same, loses some of it’s most northernmost counties and goes further east. Easily Safe R
2008 Results: McCain 63.0 Obama 35.6; 2012 Romney 2 Party %: 68.9%
MO-08 (Light Blue): Loses Cape Girardeau and some rural areas and takes in Boone County. Considering Trump won the current version of this district by 55, I figured it could take in a lean D county. Still easily safe R.
2008 Results: McCain 57.0-Obama 41.0; 2012 Romney 2 Party %: 63.8%
Here’s a close up of the Jackson County crack
and what I did with St. Louis county here
I think this map did a decent job of achieving my goals. Thoughts?