RRH Elections July 2017 House Ratings

Today it is time for our inaugural House Ratings. Here is this cycle’s first Big Board:

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
CA-7 (Bera)
CA-16 (Costa)
CA-24 (Carbajal)
CA-26 (Brownley)
CT-5 (Esty)
IL-10 (Schneider)
IL-17 (Bustos)
NH-2 (Kuster)
NY-3 (Suozzi)
NY-18 (S. Maloney)
NY-25 (Slaughter)
OR-4 (DeFazio)
WI-3 (Kind)
AZ-1 (O’Halleran)
FL-13 (Crist)
FL-27 (OPEN)
IA-2 (Loebsack)
MN-7 (Peterson)
MN-8 (Nolan)
NV-4 (Kihuen)
PA-17 (Cartwright)
AZ-2 (McSally)
FL-7 (Murphy)
FL-26 (Curbelo)

MN-2 (Lewis)
NE-2 (Bacon)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter)
NJ-5 (Gottheimer)
NY-22 (Tenney)
TX-23 (Hurd)
VA-10 (Comstock)
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-25 (Knight)
CA-39 (Royce)
CA-45 (Walters)
CA-48 (Rohrabacher)
CA-49 (Issa)
CO-6 (Coffman)
GA-6 (Handel)
IL-6 (Roskam)
IA-1 (Blum)
KS-3 (Yoder)
ME-2 (Poliquin)
MI-11 (Trott)
NJ-3 (MacArthur)
NJ-7 (Lance)
NY-19 (Faso)
PA-6 (Costello)
PA-7 (Meehan)
PA-8 (Fitzpatrick)
TX-32 (Sessions)
CA-22 (Nunes)
CO-3 (Tipton)
FL-18 (Mast)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)
GA-7 (Woodall)
IA-3 (Young)
IL-12 (Bost)
IL-13 (R. Davis)
IL-14 (Hultgren)
KY-6 (Barr)
MI-1 (Bergman)
MI-6 (Upton)
MI-7 (Walberg)
MI-8 (Bishop)
MN-3 (Paulsen)
MO-2 (Wagner)
MT-AL (Gianforte)
NC-9 (Pittenger)
NC-13 (Budd)
NJ-2 (LoBiondo)
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen)
NY-1 (Zeldin)
NY-11 (Donovan)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NY-24 (Katko)
OH-16 (OPEN)
PA-15 (Dent)
PA-16 (Smucker)
TX-7 (Culberson)
VA-2 (Taylor)
VA-7 (Brat)
WA-3 (Herrera-Beutler)
WA-8 (Reichert)
WI-1 (Ryan)
WV-2 (Mooney)

Seats not listed are safe for their incumbent party. As always, bold means a seat we project to flip and italics means a D-held Tossup. These ratings mean we are projecting a net shift in the House of between R+4 and D+8.

As we generally are wont to do, this cycle’s big board starts very big. We have 96 seats currently listed as on the playing field, a bit more than in previous cycles, because the dominant state of the House picture right now is one of profound uncertainty. However, we do know that Democrats have far, far more upside than Republicans do – we list just 26 Dem held seats as being on the board compared to 70 GOP-held seats. So the current projection of no change to a small Dem gain is probably close to the best-case scenario for the GOP. However, we still see Democrats gaining the seats they need to take over the House as something of a long-shot. Pay close attention to the 22 seats we have rated as Lean R – right now it’s difficult to imagine a Dem path to a House takeover that doesn’t run through flipping at least most of those, which contain a large chunk of once-Safe-R suburban seats that trended strongly against Trump in 2016 and now look quite purple. Of course, this early in the cycle we tend to err on the side of overestimating the playing field rather than underestimating it, and you can consider it a pretty safe bet that those Likely R and Likely D categories will shrink dramatically with time – some of the races we consider potentially competitive right now will wind up Safe as credible opponents materialize or fail to do so. For now overall we hesitate to predict any major changes in the House landscape, but that doesn’t mean such changes are not very possible depending on the national environment – and something Republican incumbents listed need to be wary of.

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  • roguemapper July 22, 2017 at 12:40 pm

    You’re casting a very wide net which I do agree is the way to go with very early House ratings, but there are still a handful of seats missing that are rated as at least somewhat competitive by at least one other rating site: CA-50, KS-02, MT-AL, OH-01, OH-16, OR-05, UT-04, VA-05. As broad as the criteria are in the above chart, it strikes me as if all or most of these should be included, particularly KS-02 and MT-AL that are on the board on every other rating site that I follow (while CA-50 and OH-01 are on the board in all but one other rating site).

    Dem NC-11

    • bluewahoo July 22, 2017 at 12:57 pm

      MT especially. Hard to see how that’s considered safe – with or without Pianoforte making it through a primary.

    • shamlet July 22, 2017 at 1:18 pm

      Three of those were actually oversights – KS-2 should be Lean R, OH-16 and MT-AL should be Likely R. We do the first rating a little differently than the prior ratings and it’s easy for a couple to get overlooked.

      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • The Anonymous User July 22, 2017 at 1:31 pm

    Nice ratings as usual, but I don’t see NJ-05 being a Tossup when Gottheimer doesn’t have a credible opponent yet I believe. NJ-11 should probably be Lean R, as Frelinghuysen is attracting a number of credible opponents, with State Rep. John McKeon likely to announce in the fall. Also, NY-19 can arguably be rated Tossup, as Faso is getting a number of good challengers who all have reasonably good fundraising numbers, and Faso seems to have won in 2016 because of his opponent and Trump’s coattails, neither of which he will have next year.

    Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

    • Manhatlibertarian July 22, 2017 at 2:04 pm

      Not that impressed with any of Faso’s Dem challengers to date; don’t think any are that well known in the district. If Mike Hein the Dem CE of Ulster County were to enter the race he would be a strong challenger. True Faso’s 2016 challenger Teachout was vulnerable to carpetbagger charges, but since she was a darling of the left progressives in NY, that enabled her to get $ and volunteers from across the state so things kind of balanced out – but aside from Ulster County the CD has a GOP lean. Faso may not have Trump coattails in 2016 but if Westchester CE Astorino is the GOP Gov nominee again (most likely scenario), it is likely he will carry the CD as he did in 2014.

      • fzw July 22, 2017 at 2:23 pm

        NY is interesting because despite Trump winning most of the GOP held districts by landslides, there’s still a lot of ticket-splitting. Schumer and Gillibrand swept the CD’s in their Senate runs, and won all but NY-27 by double digits too. Dems have a bench in every single district: several DA’s in Collins’ district, a state senator and some mayors in Katko’s, some mayors and assemblymen in Tenney’s and Reed’s. The bench in Stefanik’s district has been destroyed recently, but they have a few assemblypeople there. Steve Bellone and Christine Pellegrino in NY-3 (laugh at her being a Bernie Bro, but she or Steve Bellone would be strong contenders for an eventual open seat here). Mike McMahon and Mike Cusick in NY-11 if that ever becomes open or if in redistricting it takes in more of the Brooklyn shore of New York Harbor. And several CE’s in NY-19. Now most of them will never be vulnerable unless they retire or redistricting endangers them, but in New York, the Trump numbers can be misleading. Am I forgetting anyone?

        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • Manhatlibertarian July 22, 2017 at 2:55 pm

          Well at one point not too long ago there were only 1 or 2 GOP members of Congress from NY, instead of the current 9. NY is a blue state, so if you are a GOP member of Congress you can never rest totally easy. Romney only carried 3 CDs in NY, none by that much. But so far only one significant Dem office holder, Assemblyman Brindisi, has announced against Tenney, who is probably the most vulnerable of the 9 NY GOP members of Congress (although she does come from one of the “Romney CDs”). But the GOP members of Congress, with the exception of Peter King, are all relatively recent, so I don’t think many significant Dem local officeholders are likely to make a move until someone retires.

          • krazen1211 July 22, 2017 at 3:51 pm

            Well, yes, but that is cherry picking…remember we held 8 Congressional seats in Upstate as late as 2000, and 7 through 2004. Right now we have 6 districts covering basically the same territory except with Maloney’s district in Dem hands. And that was with W getting blown out in NY in the 2000 election.

            Elsewhere, I would be bearish on Royce, Coffman, and Issa…and probably move Culberson left too. I think Sessions in TX-32 is safer than Culberson.

            • Vosmyorka July 22, 2017 at 4:13 pm

              Yeah, Culberson is a serial primary under-performer who was bound to become vulnerable once someone’s attention turned towards him, whether in the primary or general.

              Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

            • The Anonymous User July 23, 2017 at 1:04 am

              Culberson is definitely more vulnerable than Sessions, since Culberson is a weaker incumbent, a worse fundraiser, and has the same quality opponents in seats that were pretty similar in their presidential result last year. If I had to pick one of the two to lose, not that I think either will, I would choose Culberson.

              Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

      • Manhatlibertarian July 22, 2017 at 2:39 pm

        I should also add that the CD had a GOP Congressman before Faso and Faso beat Teachout by about 25,000 votes despite all her support as a favorite of the progressive left. By the way, Astorino carried all 11 counties fully or partly in the CD, even Ulster, while Trump carried 9. So unless there is a real big Dem wave, RRH is correct to make this a Lean Repub CD; it is not a tossup. Even if Ulster CE Hein were to run and get the Dem nomination, he represents the most Dem part of the CD, so it is not like he represents a more GOP part of the CD, which would give him more strength as a candidate.

  • Left Coast Libertarian July 22, 2017 at 3:14 pm

    I find the ratings to be pre-mature because we’re starting out with a premise that might not be true. It should be a Democratic year based on historical results, the generic ballots done so far, and strong Democratic showings in specials, but we don’t have any polling of individual races to lead us to believe that. The ratings seem to be that if it’s a Democratic year then who should be in trouble? Do they have a strong opponent? Do they even have an opponent?

    I’m guessing that you have Devin Nunes on there because of the controversy around him. Nunes won by 35 points. Besides McCarthy no Republican won by more than 25 points. If Nunes goes down Democrats win 50-52 seats in California and probably 350+ nationwide.

    • segmentation_fault July 22, 2017 at 4:11 pm

      I guess they are thinking Nunes’ behavior will hurt him more than other CA Republicans. Richard Burr called him a liar the other day.

      Also note that RRH has 7 CA Republicans as more vulnerable than Nunes so if this chart were accurate Nunes’ seat would be the 47th one Democrats win in CA.

      • Left Coast Libertarian July 22, 2017 at 5:10 pm

        In the portions of Fresno and Tulare counties that Nunes represents the chances of a Democrat winning an election are non-existent, regardless of Richard Burr’s opinions. So every Republican district in the country that gives the Democrats a greater chance than non-existent would flip first. The only California district Republicans might keep would be McCarthy’s and if they lose Nunes’ districts that one is a toss-up. If you’re putting Nunes in there you need to put any Republican who has an opponent in the list.

        • segmentation_fault July 22, 2017 at 7:02 pm

          Trump actually did better in 6 districts than in Nunes’ (LaMalfa, Cook, McClintock, Calvert, Hunter, McCarthy)… he got 52% in Nunes’ district.

          • fzw July 22, 2017 at 7:27 pm

            EDIT: just kidding got it mixed up. But my other point below still stands. By the end of next decade it (Calcert’s) has potential to be a swing district, and Dems already have a new Assemblywoman, Sabrina Cervantes, representing half the seat now.

            Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
            R-leaning Indy.

          • Left Coast Libertarian July 23, 2017 at 11:37 am

            Trump’s performance would mean a lot if Trump were running in any of those districts. He isn’t. The correlation between Presidential and congressional numbers has always varied throughout California and even more so in 2016. There were a number of districts where Trump did dramatically worse than Romney and the congressional numbers hardly changed at all. Some districts have people who will vote Democratic at a Presidential level but vote Republican for most every office down ballot. Part of this is because they wouldn’t vote for a local Democrat but part of this is because there aren’t any. I think Nunes hasn’t had an opponent that lived in the district in several cycles. The other congressmen on the list get challengers in their district. It’s usually some dude but at least they know something about the district.

            You really need to set aside the Trump numbers in California and look more at down ballot trends. If the district is moving towards the Democrats in Congressional, senate, or assembly races, then it’s an opportunity. I stand by my assertion. If Democrats take Nunes’ districts they win 52 seats and McCarthy is the only one left standing. If Nunes goes down even that’s iffy.

    • GoBigRedState July 22, 2017 at 10:21 pm

      I wouldn’t read too much into having any seat in the Likely category at this point. It’s casting a wide net and trying to find any seat that could possibly be competitive under any circumstance. I doubt Nunes is in any real trouble and I would guess his seat will fall off the board at some point into the Safe category.

      45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

      • rdelbov July 22, 2017 at 10:42 pm

        Ds also have about 150 to 160 seats that safe whether they are open or have an incumbent running. There are not alot Ds out there, not on the board, that one would say “if such and such retired the GOP could win it”. Even NM1 did not make it to the board and it is open. Oh I could suggest that the GOP has a chance but maybe not in 2018?

  • Republican Michigander July 22, 2017 at 3:20 pm

    I’ve never been a “likely” rater. (Safe, lean, tossup). That said, my thoughts.

    MI-1 (Bergman) – I’m not quite ready to call this “gone” for the D’s, but it’s almost gone. Unless the D’s win big in Marquette, Manistee, and Gogebic, and flip Benzie, Leelanau County, Traverse City’s suburbs, and/or get back their old conservadem areas (Alpena, Presque Isle, Iron, Delta, Menominee, Schoolcraft, Alger), I don’t see it. Everything has to go right for them. Stupak could. McDowell (who had a ton of crossover in Eastern UP) almost did it in 2012. The only legitimate chance I see for the D’s is Scott Dianda, and I think he’s going for State Seate instead.

    MI-6 (Upton) – Trump did better than I thought here and I think did better than Romney. He flipped Van Buren County big and won it by double digits, and ran up the score in Cass County (Obama won it in 08). Still, nothing is safe with Kalamazoo County, and while Berrien usually votes R, Benton Harbor and Benton Twp will always get its share of D votes.

    MI-7 (Walberg) – Gretchen Driskell wants a rematch. I think Walberg needs to get the respect he’s earned when it comes to campaigning. He’s faced the best candidates the D’s throw at him. Doug Spade (as state rep), State Senator/Congressman Mark Schauer (only one to beat him, and Walberg took the rematch), State Rep Pam Byrnes, and State Rep Driskell. and that’s despite RINO Joe Schwarz trying to help the D’s. Tim beat most of their farm club.

    MI-8 (Bishop) – Nothing is safe with Lansing, East Lansing, and Meridian Twp, but Livingston and North Oakland a major base area for us. Battle of the bases. Slotkin’s DC connected, so Mike’s got a race. He’ll be prepared.

    MI-11 (Trott) – I think this is one that may be the most vulnerable for several reasons. The first reason is Canton’s bluing, along with Novi and Troy’s struggles. The D has raised a lot of money. Trott has dealt with and may deal with ex-congressman Bentivolio running as an independent. There’s a LOT of nasty GOP infighting in this district with a strong establishment more “moderate” (esp fiscally) than the “establishment” in a lot of areas, along with a very strong tea party (especially in the NW part of the district – which is a very conservative area). Semi-populist Livonia’s still hanging on, and more populist Waterford’s (once quite D) moving to the right.

    I’m concerned about MI-11. Trott’s got the funding, but I’m a little worried about a double-flank.

    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Red Oaks July 23, 2017 at 9:15 am

      Generally agreed but I’m a lot less worried about MI-11 than most people. Trump was an unusually bad fit for the 11th so the Presidential numbers obscure how Republican this area is for down ballot races. Democrats have zero state senators, zero county commissioners, zero countywide officials, and only two state representatives whose districts are only partly in the 11th. Of the 9 townships entirely inside the 11th (Canton, Plymouth, Northville, Lyon, Milford, Commerce, Highland, White Lake, and Waterford) 58 out of 63 elected township officials are Republican. The 5 elected Democrats are all from Canton and they ran behind Clinton. Livonia, the largest city in the district, is dominated by Republicans at the local level and down ballot GOP candidates always run ahead of top of the ticket numbers. Long-term things may deteriorate slowly but there isn’t much of a Democratic bench and Trott is a pretty good fit for the district. At the 2021 redistricting part or all of Canton will probably get thrown in the Dingell district which will help quite a bit.

      MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

      • Republican Michigander July 23, 2017 at 1:51 pm

        Trott did well against a B- candidate. He won by about 48,000 getting 52.93% despite 16,600 votes going to Bentivolio (4.38%). Kumar had 40%. Seeing the 40% makes me less worried than seeing Bentivolio’s 4.38% and Trott getting under 53%. Obviously, there is still a lot of hard feelings from the Bentivolio camp over the 2014 primary. The infighting tension is also so think in the 11th that you can cut it with a knife.

        Trott only lost the following.
        Auburn Hills – by 10% and 900 votes
        Farmington – by 9.5% and 500 votes (Bigger Farmington Hills is in the 14th)
        Canton by 4% and 2000 votes.

        His won Wixom, Clawson, Novi, Birmingham, and Troy, as well as his (less D) portion of West Bloomfield. I think Bentilvolio makes it closer than it was. Still, is he going to run again? With the infighting in the 11th, he’ll get his share of votes. 4.3% can turn a 51-48 race into a 48-47 one.

        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Amish July 22, 2017 at 3:30 pm

    If Carlos Lopez-Cantera runs in FL 27, I’d call it a toss-up.

    • Son_of_the_South July 23, 2017 at 4:10 pm

      Is he especially strong? He didn’t seem so in his senate run.

      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • Vosmyorka July 22, 2017 at 4:17 pm

    Mostly very good. I’d propose a couple of quibbles — McSally and Tenney should both probably be Leans R, considering margin of victory/lack of very strong challengers in AZ-2 and high Trump margin and high third-party vote in 2016 in NY-22. But in a Republican midterm, I’d put any GOP win by less than 5 points into Tossup; I don’t see how CA-1o or CA-49 are possibly Leans at all.

    Conversely, I’d put O’Halleran’s seat into Tossup. That’s a solidly Trump seat that also swung towards him in a state that mostly went the other direction, where Republicans had a comically terrible candidate in 2016; the Democratic incumbent will be 72 and not very entrenched. I’d honestly put AZ-1 as the second-best Republican pickup opportunity in 2016, after the MN-1 open seat.

    Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

    • rdelbov July 22, 2017 at 4:22 pm

      My thinking of well on McSally and Tenney as well. Overall not a lot of quibbles. I note as well that the RNC is awash with cash and is working on grassroots matters as I type. The DNC is floundering and is working on more efforts to root out moderate D candidates.

      • Manhatlibertarian July 22, 2017 at 4:35 pm

        Yes according to the June FEC report, the RNC raised $13.5 million and has $44.7 million COH, while the DNC raised $5.5 million in June and only has $7.5 million COH. Not what I would have expected, but maybe the Resistance is spent out after the Montana and Georgia special elections and Jill Stein’s presidential election recounts; or maybe they just don’t have much faith in the ability of the DNC to be effective.

      • Boehnerwasright July 22, 2017 at 4:49 pm

        Why not look at fundraising for the DCCC? I don’t get why most people only fixate on the DNC/RNC. The DCCC outraised the NRCC 9.6 to 6.3 mio. Yes the RNC will transfer some money, but just looking at DNC/RNC fundraising is misleading.


        • fzw July 22, 2017 at 5:01 pm

          Because people tend to cherry pick things that fit their narratives.

          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

        • Left Coast Libertarian July 22, 2017 at 5:14 pm

          I agree here. Do we have any idea what the RNC and DNC transferred in 2014? Donald Trump is going to have a lot of say what happens with RNC money and we have no idea what he prefers.

          • Manhatlibertarian July 22, 2017 at 8:50 pm

            Well OK let’s take the total of the most recent DNC/DCCC $ raised and compare it to the most recent RNC/RCCC $ raised. The result RNC/RCCC $20 million and DNC/DCCC $14.8 million; so combined the Repubs are ahead. And let’s not forget the COH advantage the RNC has over the DNC – a $37.3 million advantage. I suspect whatever COH balance the DCCC may have over the RCCC would only make a small dent in the overall GOP COH balance lead. So as we know, the Dems are not just the “poor working people’s party” when it comes to raising $ and there has been talk about how the Resistance is more enthused than the GOP, so why aren’t the Dems leading in total cash, and leading big? Something does not fit with the narrative we have been getting these days.

            • rdelbov July 22, 2017 at 9:07 pm

              I might add that since the GOP has incumbents in most of their tossup or lean or likely seats statwise that is a cash advantage as well.

    • The Anonymous User July 22, 2017 at 6:45 pm

      In NY-22, Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi is running, who won unopposed in 2016 while Trump was wining his district, and he’ said demonstrated crossover appeal in the past. In AZ-02, ex-Representative Ann Kirkpatrick is running, amongst others, and McSally’s statement on the BCRA has enthused Democrats, and she seems to be more vulnerable than in 2016. Also, Clinton won her district by 5 points. On AZ-01, you’re plain wrong. Romney won the seat by 2.5 and Trump won it by 1.1. It did swing towards Dems by less than the statewide swing, but it isn’t solidly Trump and it did not swing towards him. Also, O’Halleran doesn’t have a strong challenger yet, so I think he’ll probably be fine.

      Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

      • rdelbov July 22, 2017 at 7:39 pm

        Ironically Kirkpatrick is likely too moderate for the Ds in AZ1–not to mention the carpetbagger notion. AZ1 GOP primary was a major foul up for the GOP in 2016. I suspect the GOP would be better off without a named candidate-some one like a McSally who is a fresh face . These two races IMO AZ1 & AZ2 will be very interesting to watch. Big fan of McSally-curious to see O’Halleran can continue to outrun the D label in his district.

        • The Anonymous User July 23, 2017 at 1:01 am

          Arizona will definitely be an interesting battleground next year. My preferences on candidates, as a Democrat, are that Sinema run for Senate, Stanton go for Governor, and Randy Friese for AZ-02. I’m not familiar with the bench in AZ-09, but I’m sure there’s someone. If McCain’s seat becomes open, we should probably run Gallego for it.

          Loyal partisan Democrat, liberal, male, IL-10, in one of few bright spots for Democrats in 2016.

  • Jon July 22, 2017 at 4:44 pm

    MO-02 : With Wagner not running for Senate, I think Safe R would be a better rating at this point.

    45, M, MO-02

  • GOPTarHeel July 22, 2017 at 11:11 pm

    What basis do you have for including NC9 or NC13? Those are extremely safe GOP seats and only -9 shifted left, by something like a point.

    R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

    • BostonPatriot July 22, 2017 at 11:26 pm

      Can’t speak for everyone but for NC-9 my thinking was that Pittenger was held to 52% in 2012 and has a tendency to put his foot in his mouth. I considered NC-13 Safe R, but it is the weakest of the R districts in NC.

      • GOPTarHeel July 22, 2017 at 11:32 pm

        He was held to that in a completely different version of the district though. The new NC-9 shed all of those tough Mecklenburg areas that almost cost him in his initial election.

        R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

        • BostonPatriot July 23, 2017 at 10:56 am

          Ahhhh gotcha. I just compared the maps and didn’t realize exactly how much of Charlotte Pittenger shed.

          • rdelbov July 23, 2017 at 12:52 pm

            NC GOP house members get a tremendous break in 2018. It is hard to underestimate the amount of national resources that was put into NC by democrats, for grass level turnout efforts, in 2008/2010/2012/2014/2016. I suspect between senate and presidential campaigns that number would be 20 million per cycle. This year the number for grass roots money in NC for the Ds could be zero? On the R side it will be much more because that is what the GOP does in NC-a lot of its money is state and local while the Ds have to national money

    • segmentation_fault July 23, 2017 at 1:04 am

      It’s hard to call 43-44% Hillary districts “extremely safe” in a Trump midterm. I think Likely R is fair and Cook’s ratings agree with RRH on that.

      Dems have a decent candidate in NC-9, Dan McReady – businessman, veteran, Harvard, recruited by Seth Moulton. He’s fundraising pretty well: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article161353023.html

      Pittenger is not a good candidate. Underperformed Romney by a lot in 2012 and barely won the GOP primary in 2016 with just over 30% of the vote (runoffs were cancelled).

      • fzw July 23, 2017 at 1:19 am

        I wonder if the DCCC is banking on NC-9 being a low-turnout affair that benefits McCready due to the lack of a gubernatorial or Senate race and the guarantee that liberals will be pissed off? If he were to win, I’d guess he’d only be a one-term rental, but that could be enough for him to build a profile to run for Senate in 2020.

        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • GOPTarHeel July 23, 2017 at 1:36 pm

          The turnout drop off is extremely likely to be in the rural Democratic Sandhills and not the high turnout Republican exurbs.

          R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

      • Tekzilla July 23, 2017 at 10:47 am

        Agreed, its the perfect kind of race to have as Likely R. It could fall of, it could move to Lean, it could stay where it is. I think Likely is right for now.

        36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • GOPTarHeel July 23, 2017 at 1:01 pm

        Sorry, but that’s a minimum R+9 PVI seat in presidential years with no Democratic base in the populated western half of the seat, high turnout exurbs, and an extremely low turnout Democratic eastern half that galloped to the right in 2016. That seat simply isn’t going to flip.

        R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

        • segmentation_fault July 23, 2017 at 1:21 pm

          Donald Trump only won the Mecklenburg County part of the district by 3.2%.

          We’ll see.

          • rdelbov July 23, 2017 at 1:37 pm

            Of course Trump ran well behind all R numbers in Mecklenburg county-talk about cherry picking facts. Congressman won his part of Mecklenburg county by 16%

          • GOPTarHeel July 23, 2017 at 1:59 pm

            Mecklenburg is only a quarter of the district. Trump won Union by 2 to 1, easily won Rockingham, held up well in Cumberland, and performed better than any presidential Republican in decades in Anson, Scotland, Bladen, and Robeson. And a South Charlotte social liberal isn’t going to play very well in the eastern half, where McCrory actually outran Trump.

            R/NC-13. I'll never regret a vote that resulted in Neil Gorsuch.

            • roguemapper July 23, 2017 at 2:12 pm

              I generally agree about NC-09 but McCrory’s numbers in the eastern half of the district got a significant boost from the response to Hurricane Matthew.

              Dem NC-11

          • krazen1211 July 23, 2017 at 2:28 pm

            Metro Charlotte as a whole was generally strong for Trump unlike other southern metros. Of course parts of it are in SC.

            • rdelbov July 23, 2017 at 4:51 pm

              I suspect that we will see a 50% reduction in turnout in NC9-NC in general in 2018. I can’t see the Ds doing well with the decline in younger voters and minority voters.

              • Son_of_the_South July 23, 2017 at 5:27 pm

                Well, white Ds are very, very motivated right now. In other Southern states that doesn’t mean that much, but NC has an unusually white Dem coalition. AA turnout should plummet, but Chapel Hill, inner Raleigh, inner Greensboro, and inner Charlotte should have pretty robust turnout for the Dems.

                24, R, TN-09
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                • rdelbov July 23, 2017 at 5:30 pm

                  WAPO did not suggest any D surge in their recent poll about the 2018 elections. Rs are still more motivated to vote then Ds. I posted this poll the other day. That is what the poll said and I believed I linked it or another poster linked it here. Rs are still more motivated then Ds

                  I am not reading too much into these special elections.

  • Ryan_in_SEPA July 23, 2017 at 12:21 pm

    There is some moaning about these ratings, which is not unexpected because the moderators had a substantial number of disagreements. I did not agree with any of the Pennsylvania rankings except PA-8 and PA-16 for example (I had each seat one step safer for the incumbent party).

    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • shamlet July 23, 2017 at 12:31 pm

      Yeah, I think there were only about 10 seats where the vote was unanimous. The picture is really hazy right now. I imagine when we do our next rating (probably December) there will be a lot more information and thus a lot stronger consensus.

      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Manhatlibertarian July 23, 2017 at 3:42 pm

    I notice you have Stefanik as Likely Repub in NYCD 21, although I would consider her Safe Repub; she won this historically GOP area by over 30 points in 2016. There are 4 Dems running for the seat but none are grade A. She also has 1 GOP primary opponent, Russ Finley, a beef farmer and real estate broker who in the past tried unsuccessfully to get the GOP nod for State Assembly. Don’t know why he is running against her, but he seems very conservative and a big Trump supporter. I don’t see him as a threat to her.


    • rdelbov July 23, 2017 at 5:00 pm

      Stefanik has really worked the district hard. Yes it is easier to work a district like VA10 or NY1 that is geographically compact. On the flip side Stefanik and her staff have been working the district for nearly 4 years by November 2018. NY21 is a super sized district by just about any standard. Does anyone really see that Nancy P and her minions in DC are going to pump 10 million dollars into this race? I get that it is a could lose type seat. Similar to NM1 on the D side. They could lose it–it is not like some R candidates have not carried NM1 in a good year or even a so so year. Same with Ds for NY21.

      I don’t with the format but I am not too concerned about NY21.

      • BostonPatriot July 23, 2017 at 6:06 pm

        There’s two sides to the far-flung district coin, too. Yes, it’s harder to work the district because of the geographic scope, but districts like NY-21 (e.g. ME-02, MI-01, etc.) also tend to be parochial, more dependent on the federal government, and have fewer things to distract their residents from the local political scene than the VA-10’s of the world. That means ties to a local congressperson who puts in the effort can run deep. It’s also harder for a challenger to build name recognition in a district like this, since the population is spread out over several small metros.

        • rdelbov July 23, 2017 at 7:21 pm

          spot on!! She looks after Ft Drum in Jefferson from her perch on Arm Services Commitee and there are several other military operations near Saratago springs. The district really is diverse and nearly will be growing in size in the 2022 redistricting.
          IMO you might as well call this seat safe but I certainly understand why it is on the Likely R list.

          • BostonPatriot July 23, 2017 at 7:40 pm

            Certainly an interesting seat–had been trending quite liberal at the presidential level for the decade-plus before 2016, but Bill Owens is the only Democrat to get 40% of the vote there since 1976. And his three wins were with 48, 49, and 50% of the vote. Those are the only Democratic wins in the seats ever–the GOP took it over from the Whigs in 1856.

            • Manhatlibertarian July 24, 2017 at 1:08 pm

              Owens never got really comfortable in this seat, winning narrowly as disputes within the GOP-Conservative alliance were a key factor in his winning. Although the CD has been basically Repub the Northern 3 counties in the CD, Clinton, Franklin and St. Lawrence have usually gone Dem. But in 2014 Astorino carried St. Lawrence, the largest of the 3 counties, against Cuomo. And in 2016 Trump carried St. Lawrence and Franklin and Clinton only carried Clinton County (how appropriate!). So it is hard to see how a some dude Dem has any chance of winning this CD against Stefanik, who knows how to work the district.

  • davybaby July 23, 2017 at 5:21 pm

    Ken Buck (CO-04) says he might run for Colorado attorney general if Cynthia Coffman runs for governor:


    “‘There’s a reason why Jared (Polis) and Ed (Perlmutter) walked away from this job and are more interested in living in Colorado,’ Buck said.”

    Can’t disagree with that.

    • shamlet July 23, 2017 at 5:26 pm

      Was in last Tuesday’s Roundup. Can’t imagine it would put CO-4 on the board.

      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • davybaby July 23, 2017 at 11:30 pm

        Sorry I missed that. Obviously, I agree with your conclusion.

  • rdelbov July 23, 2017 at 8:55 pm

    I almost posted this on the weekend thread but this article specifically addresses house races in 2018.


    I am saying I agree that more money and effort aimed at minority or young white Obama 2008/2012 voters would have helped Clinton/Ds in 2016. The Clinton message was so bland and so 1990s. Tim Kaine very little excitement about him. ZZZZZZZZ on Kaine. Even I saw it last summer when I wondered whether the D ticket was doomed because they went old and gray haired with Kaine instead of someone younger minority VP. Money only goes so far in pushing voters to the polls. In NC 2014 the Ds probably put 10 million into voter turnout efforts. They were IMO very successful in moving D voters to the polls but still the overall turnout in 2014 in NC was not 2012-it was just high for a midterm election.

    I go back to the article I posted the other day from the Hill magazine. 40 million voters who cast ballots in 2016 will not vote in 2018. Many will be younger voters and minority voters. Not saying the GOP can’t lose in 2018. If moderate and conservative indies as well as moderate republicans decide to vote for Pelosi type Ds instead of Stefenik type incumbent Rs then you will see a wave.

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