Political Roundup for August 7th, 2017


AL-Sen: Well, this is probably a bit embarrassing for the ALDP. A poll mentioned in this article shows that a Some Dude who happens to be named Robert Kennedy, Jr. (D) is leading former US Attorney Doug Jones (D) in the special election primary 49-26. ouch! Do we have another Alvin Greene situation on our hands? Finding out will likely be fun.

MN-Sen: Well, a lamb has been found for the altar. State Rep. Jim Newberger (R) has announced plans to challenge Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) in 2018. Though MN is a purple state, Klobuchar is one of the most popular senators in the country. Well, at least she won’t run unopposed.

OH-Sen: If you had any doubt that the candidacy of banker Mike Gibbons (R) was anything other than a Kasichworld endeavor, this should convince you: Gibbons has hired two of Kasich’s close associates to help run his campaign. Now this could simply be because Gibbons trusts Kasich’s recommendations, but there are rumors swirling that this whole campaign is an effort to stymie Treasurer Josh Mandel (R), with the general election against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) being an afterthought.

MN-08: Rep. Rick Nolan (D), who narrowly won reelection to his Trumpish district in northeastern Minnesota last year, has declared that he’s running for reelection. He says he’s ready to fight, though don’t ask him about it via email, because to Nolan, it’s still 1979.

SC-01: Right on cue, Rep. and former Gov. Mark Sanford (R-His Emotions) has a primary challenger. State Rep. Katie Arrington (R) has pulled papers and filed to challenge the Love Gov for his Charleston-based coastal congressional district. Somehow, though, I have to think that she won’t get the job done, seeing as no one else has managed to do it before now.


AK-Gov, AK-LG: It has now been confirmed publicly that Gov. Bill Walker (I) will run for reelection. He will likely once again have Democratic backing and will likely only face major opposition from whomever Republicans put up to run against him, as his Democratic LG Byron Mallot (D) will run with him again. Also in this story, it notes that ex-State Rep. Lynn Gattis (R) has become the second Republcian to file for LG, joining State Sen. Gary Stevens (R) in the shotgun-wedding primary. State Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R) is the only notable Republican in the Governor’s race as of yet.

CO-Gov: With the exit of Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) from the gubernatorial contest, it seems that the CODP’s moderate faction is searching for a new standard-bearer. Well, they might have found one. Progressives are already attacking healthcare executive Donna Lynne (D), who is thinking of entering to take on Rep. Jared Polis (D). Polis is currently the prohibitive favorite in the primary. The moderates are apparently afraid of how much oil and gas companies will pour into the race to defeat Polis, who has a hard stance against fracking. Just when the race looked to have turned quite boring, it may be about to heat up again.

FL-Gov: State Sen. Jack Latvala (R) and State House Speaker Richard Corcoran (R) are already sniping at each other ahead of the Sunshine State’s Republican gubernatorial primary. Who’s the real winner here? That would be Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (R), who is already the frontrunner in that race and is mostly avoiding taking fire while the other two fight it out to be the main non-Putnam candidate.

KY-Gov: I have no clue why a Kansas paper was covering this, but it’s a good article. Over the weekend at Fancy Farm, Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls AG Andy Beshear and Senate Minority Floor Leader Rocky Adkins trotted-out their lines of attack on Gov, Matt Bevin and the Republican controlled legislature for 2019. There’s also a great line from Rep. James Comer (R).

NJ-Gov: We knew that Goldman alum Phil Murphy (D) was leading Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R). This poll confirms that, putting Murphy at a 14-point advantage, 42-28. What’s interesting though is how many undecideds there are. This race has flown under the radar nationally, but you’d think that wouldn’t be the case locally.

NY-Gov: Actress Cynthia Nixon (D) of ‘Sex and the City’ fame is reportedly considering challenging Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) from the left in the Democratic primary. Personally I can’t wait for everyone’s old ‘Nixon for Governor’ signs to get dusted off. There’s probably a bunch of those just sitting in some Gran Torino-style holdout’s garage in a California barrio.


CA-AD-63: Even though the party chairmanship is now settled, the progressive v.s moderate fight currently roiling the CADP rolls onward. After the single-payer healthcare bill was spiked by Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon (D), the nurses’ union is threatening to recall him. Get the popcorn ready folks. This could be a good one.

KY-SD-31: It seems that some hanky-panky was going on in Pike County in 2016. It’s a complicated tale, but the upshot is that a PI hired by Senate Minority Leader Ray Jones (D) was harassing voters in eastern Pike County on primary day when jones had a challenger. Watch this one, because if Jones goes down for this the last of the old guard Kentucky Democrats may be cleared out for good.

McIntire-Turnout: What happens when no one votes? Well, the residents of the small Iowa town of McIntire are about to find out. None of the town’s 70 registered voters cast a ballot on Tuesday measures pertaining to the terms of the town’s mayor and councilmen. Not even the poll workers voted because they weren’t residents of the town. I think this is a sign that the town might just want to disincorporate.

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  • GerGOP August 7, 2017 at 7:25 am

    Come 2019 (starting with the 2018 primaries), Ohio needs to be ridden of the Kasichites.

    • Indy1975a August 7, 2017 at 12:05 pm

      One could argue that the Ohio Senate race may be the most important one in the country. I think on paper, Sherrod Brown is the Ds best Prez candidate in 2020 if he wins reelection. Of course, he could well be a Scott Walker in 2016 (whom I thought would be the nominee when the race started); looks good on paper but ends up being a dud on the campaign trail.

      Independent, R until November 2016

      • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 12:09 pm

        Sherrod Brown’s ex-wife alleged in divorce papers that Sherrod Brown physically abused her. There is NO WAY someone who is accused of spousal abuse could survive a Democrat presidential primary let alone get elected President or VP.

        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Indy1975a August 7, 2017 at 12:17 pm

          Until 2016, I would have agreed. But I’m not sure what boundaries exist anymore for personal behavior for national office. After Bill Clinton and Trump, I’m concluding that that bar is really low if you are charismatic enough.

          Those allegations were aired in two Ohio Senate races (and I’m sure will be again in 2018), and his ex-wife backed him. If he gets through 2018, my guess is that he can overcome that in a national campaign. Same with Al Franken and his baggage.

          Apparently Hillary Clinton was ready to pick Brown as her VP (knowing these allegations) except that Kasich was going to appoint Brown’s replacement in the Senate.

          Independent, R until November 2016

          • TennesseeMike August 7, 2017 at 1:02 pm

            I don’t know that Brown is “charismatic enough”. I highly doubt he will be the 2020 Democrat nominee. His isn’t a woman, gay or black. He can fix this by coming out as a woman. Then two of those things would be covered. I’m not joking either. I think this could be the winning path to the Democrat nomination for Brown. Shirley Brown can win Democrat votes where Sherrod Brown can’t.

            TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

            • Indy1975a August 7, 2017 at 3:03 pm

              See I disagree with this line of thinking. A straight white male can win the D nomination provided that they are enough to the left and charismatic enough.
              I don’t know that Brown is charismatic enough either, which is why he may just crash and burn. But an economic leftist like Brown would be more appealing to the party left and their populist wing than people like Cuomo, Booker, or Deval Patrick.

              Independent, R until November 2016

            • jncca August 7, 2017 at 3:27 pm

              According to Rush Limbaugh Senator Brown is quite African-American!

              24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • andyroo312 August 7, 2017 at 1:05 pm

          Indeed, they can only survive (and win) Republican presidential primaries these days. #micdrop

          As for Brown’s 2020 viability, I’m not a fan but would concede he’s probably among the five or so best Democrats the party could nominate vs. Trump.


        • zbigreddogz August 7, 2017 at 2:10 pm

          Are you serious?

          Barring pictures of his bloody, beaten wife, it won’t even make a blip.

          Prior to Trump, I’d say the D’s don’t care about the personal behavior of their politicians. Now, it seems neither side does.

  • shamlet August 7, 2017 at 8:01 am

    Random profound thought of the morning: With a few exceptions, Gary Johnson’s vote share correlates pretty decently with a state’s elasticity.

    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 8:39 am

    Re AL-Sen: The proper analogy to RFK Jr is Gene Kelly in Texas not Alvin Greene in SC.

    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • CTIronman August 7, 2017 at 9:01 am

      Serious CTGov news. Danbury Mayor & prominent R candidate Mark Boughton announced he has a brain tumor & will be admitted at UPMC to have it removed.

      He says it’s benign & anticipates returning to work in a few weeks but it’s unsettling for a 52 yo

    • cer August 7, 2017 at 10:43 am

      I always love it when the Dems are on the verge of shooting themselves in the foot.

      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • segmentation_fault August 7, 2017 at 9:28 pm

        Oh come on. If ALDP’s preferred candidate lost that would mean that Democrats have a bad candidate in a race they would never have won anyway. If Republicans nominate Roy Moore that means they’re going to be shooting themselves in the foot every time he opens his mouth for the next three years or however long he remains in the senate.

        En Marche!

  • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 9:00 am

    Re SC-1: Elliot Spitzer is the Love Gov NOT Stanford!

    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Son_of_the_South August 7, 2017 at 1:28 pm

      Eh, it fits more with him than Spitzer. There was actual love involved.

      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Republican Michigander August 7, 2017 at 11:02 am

      A lot of it is D self packing.

      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA August 7, 2017 at 11:19 am

      This is why the Democrats should just come out and advocate proportional representation based on the popular vote in each state. Article 1 would allow Congress to enact proportional representation.

      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

      • krazen1211 August 7, 2017 at 11:29 am

        Distributional problems in the House are minor compared to distributional problems in the Senate and the Electoral College.

        • rdelbov August 7, 2017 at 11:37 am

          I guess 6 or 7 small western states with R senators still swallowed by CA numbers. On the flip side the small eastern states of ME, NH, VT, RI and DE have only one R senator. Still I do agree that there is certainly a small state bias that helps the GOP in senate numbers and ECV.

          • Greyhound August 7, 2017 at 5:49 pm

            Yeah, for all the Democratic bellowing about how the GOP’s senate edge comes from tiny states, it really doesn’t. Among states with 5 or less EVs, the Democrats actually hold 16 seats to the GOP’s 14. (2 Democrats in HI, NM, DE, RI, NH, and VT, 2 Republicans in AK, ID, WY, SD, and NE, with split delegations in ME, WV, ND, and MT).

            R, 26, CA-18. Nothing smooths over divisions like victory.

            • TheWizardOf144 August 7, 2017 at 6:24 pm

              “Among states with 5 or less EVs”

              #AltWrite 😉

              • rdelbov August 7, 2017 at 10:36 pm

                The R advantage in the senate and ECV is in the middle!!! In my post below I relay how there are 25 red states, 15 blue states and 10 purple ones –I do have 5 of the smallest states as Blue-7 as Red with two (NH and ME) being purple. The advantage for the Rs is that middle ground between the small states and the four largest ones. NY and CA are Blue while TX is red and Florida is purple. So on the very bottom it is tight and tigher–with a D edge on the top end but in the middle the GOP has an edge.

      • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 11:57 am

        Democrats can start this movement going by switching to proportional representation in MA & CT!

        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Ryan_in_SEPA August 7, 2017 at 12:23 pm

          That is probably one of the reasons they have not done it. If you enact PR, the coastal liberal meccas like MA, CT, NY, and CA would lose seats while they would gain seats in flyover country.

          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

      • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 12:18 pm

        Proportional representation goes against the basic idea of 1 congressman serving a district. Switching to that system would lose local system. Also I am not sure a party list proportional system would pass constitutional muster. Article 2 section 1 states “The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States”. To me that would imply that members of Congress would have to be directly elected by the people of the state. Voting proportionally for a list is not really a direct choosing by the people.

        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Ryan_in_SEPA August 7, 2017 at 12:27 pm

          Don’t most white liberals believe that representatives are fungible? That is how they act in many races.

          They would still be elected directly based on a party list at the state level. I think the biggest issue is the 14th Amendment. I suspect such a proposal would limit the number of minorities in Congress.

          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

          • rdelbov August 7, 2017 at 12:55 pm

            The VRA specifically forbids the election of congressman in at large seats because it would decrease the number of minority seat holders—unless you county republicans. I suspect the GOP would love (maybe even Mia Love) to allocate house seats to conservative Hispanics, Asians and African Americans. Basically that is what a proportional system would mean for CA. Cast one ballot for US house and have each party draw up a list. The GOP would likely get 20 of the 53 seats in 2018 under such a system. So the top 20 people on the GOP list would be elected.

          • Red Oaks August 7, 2017 at 5:24 pm

            I suspect party list proportional representation would actually significantly increase the number of women and racial minorities as both major parties would place them very high on their lists to ensure a “Congress that looks like America”.

            Our current system is an individual candidate driven process. To win a party nomination for Congress (or most other elective offices too) an individual candidate must appeal directly to regular voters with fundraising, mailings, speeches, door to door campaigning, and plain old hustle. To win a place on a party list you just need to impress high ranking party insiders, a much less difficult task for those with the shall I say “the right look for the part”.

            Consider the case of Lieutenant Governors. In the 21 states with separate general elections for LG (counting Arizona, Wyoming, and Oregon where technically the elected Secretary of State is the effective LG) currently there is 1 vacancy, 2 white women and 18 white guys (unless you count Cyrus Habib as a minority). When then LG has to campaign on their own, minorities tend not to win much.

            By contrast in the 17 states where the Gubernatorial nominee basically selects an LG running mate (either before or after the primary) there are 5 white women, 1 Hispanic man, 1 Hispanic woman, 1 black man, and 1 black woman. When the LG is handpicked they are much more likely to be female and/or minority.

            I suspect a similar dynamic would be at play in a list PR system.

            MI-03 Castle voter who now says Give Trump a chance

            • Vosmyorka August 7, 2017 at 7:24 pm

              It would depend on the system used for getting on the lists. If it were Australia- or Germany-esque, where insiders have a great deal of influence on who gets what spot, you may be right, but in (for instance) a large-Israeli-party system, like what Likud or Avoda use, you could still get a great deal of public input (those parties hold primaries where every party member is allowed 10 votes, though they often reserve specific seats for certain demographics).

              Unless whatever process that led to PR mandated a certain technique, I’d think we’d be likelier to see a mosaic, especially once semi-credible third-parties arise (and in specifically California that would be from the first race; first spot on the Libertarian or Peace & Freedom lists would be pretty safe).

              Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

              • Red Oaks August 7, 2017 at 8:41 pm

                If party list PR were adopted for US House I think Republicans and Democrats would still dominate over third parties even more than the CDU and SPD do in Germany for several reasons:
                1. There still would be popularly elected Governors, Senators, and row officers elected under first past the post (FPTP), which tends towards two large parties. Voters would tend to mostly vote the same way for US House like they do now.
                2. The Presidential election in the electoral college would still tend be mostly a one on one battle between two major candidates. Similar to point 1 above the top of the ticket being a mostly top two battle would drive how most voters cast ballots for the downticket House races.
                3. Because so many other races would still operate on a FPTP basis, the 2 major parties will continue to mostly operate as open ideologically flexible entities unlike in almost all other countries. Thus prominent individual candidates will still be better off working within the major party systems than taking the risk of forming their own lists.
                4. Based on the number of US House seats most states have, the de facto thresholds for winning any seats would be pretty high – higher than the 5% in Germany for all states except California Texas, Florida, and New York. With such a high bar required for actual representation, third parties will struggle to attract much support.

                MI-03 Castle voter who now says Give Trump a chance

                • Vosmyorka August 7, 2017 at 10:39 pm

                  Oh, I agree with you that they would still dominate, but I think especially in the large states that third parties would be able to win a few seats (certainly the case in California), and even in smaller ones I think there would be an outbreak of regionalism.

                  Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

                  • Jon August 7, 2017 at 11:29 pm

                    For that matter, I think with statewide PR for MO that a 4 R – 3 D – 1 L delegation would be more likely than 5 R – 3 D.

                    I was however noting that would fairvotes version of PR a decade or so ago wasn’t state wide for states with at least 6 CDs; but was instead calling for dividing each state evenly into “super districts” as evenly as possible with between 3 and 5 seats each. e.g. Missouri would now get two superdistricts (one Eastern, one Western) both four seats each.
                    In the Eastern district, that results in a 2 – 2 split for the forseeable future. In the Western district, in a good year Republicans might get 3 seats, but a 2 – 2 split is probably more likely for most years.

                    45, M, MO-02

    • rdelbov August 7, 2017 at 11:25 am

      Not a big shock there as anyone looking at the USA map of election results can see that the vast majority of counties went for Trump while the blue ones are concentrated in the urban areas.

      The only way the Ds can remedy this geographic disparity is to attach urban areas to rural areas with a bunch twisty nasty lines. See maps for Ds in Maryland, California, Arizona, Oregon and Illinois. Slice up counties 3 or 4 ways while attaching urban counties to rural counties. Of course to Obama and Holder redistricting reform means taking control of the process from republicans and letting democrats draw the lines.

      • Jon August 7, 2017 at 11:46 pm

        Sadly, in the case of Maryland I can easily draw a clean looking 7 D 1 R. It double bunks Hoyer but the open seat is still D.

        Oregon is an interesting case: according to the Wikipedia; 2 of the D seats are even PVI, which suggests that with better candidates under the current map we could have flipped them in 2014.

        The Manthismander also features a Democrat occupying an R+2 seat (and earlier in the cycle an R+1) as the only way even with those county splits that it was effective.

        Downstate IL (in particular #12 / #13) was actually an example of a dummymander even with how they drew Chicago area districts to maximize D seats.

        45, M, MO-02

    • prsteve11 August 7, 2017 at 1:01 pm

      Good write-up. The truth is that the natural Senate equilibrium is a healthy Republican majority by virtue of the simple fact that there are more red states than blue states.

      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • rdelbov August 7, 2017 at 1:34 pm

        Red states -25 (D senators from these states Manchin, Donnelly, Heithkamp, McCaskill, Tester)
        Blue States-15 (no R senators from them)
        Purple 10(R senators from them Collins, Toomey, Rubio, Portman, Johnson, Gardner, Heller)

  • dforston August 7, 2017 at 11:59 am

    More AL-Senate polling – http://winwithjmc.com/archives/7883

    • GerGOP August 7, 2017 at 1:09 pm

      I want to bang my head against the wall.

    • TennesseeMike August 7, 2017 at 1:12 pm

      What’s interesting to me is the favorable ratings on the top 3.
      Moore: 53%, Strange: 35%, and Brooks: 31%
      I said (in RRH’s poll posting) this is a state where being “extreme” on social issues would help not hurt.

      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

      • kewgardens August 7, 2017 at 11:02 pm

        What would a Moore-RFK general look like? 55-45 Moore? Would the Dems try to prop up RFK and hope for a backlash against Moore?

        • Indy1975a August 7, 2017 at 11:31 pm

          At least 60-40 Moore. I could see 55-45 Moore if the Ds nominated a serious candidate with enough financial support (no Doug Jones doesn’t fit the bill) who runs as a center-right candidate. To beat Moore, they need both the great candidate AND a great political environment (similar to 2008 when the Ds House races in Louisiana and Mississippi). The latter isn’t going to be there until at least the middle of 2018. Either that or they need to prop up a conservative independent like Bobby Bright.

          Independent, R until November 2016

          • andyroo312 August 8, 2017 at 9:55 am

            Yeah, I suspect Moore’s floor, for all of his flaws, is right around 55 percent. Jones is a credible candidate but awfully washed-up. RFK’s a complete wild card.


            • Izengabe August 8, 2017 at 12:38 pm

              Moore got 52% of the vote when he ran for re-election in 2012 so his floor may be lower than 55%!

              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 12:26 pm

    CT-Sen: Trump calls out Blumenthal on his lies about serving in Vietnam:

    Although if I was Blumenthal I would have responded “Not everyone can fake bones spurs. I proudly served in the Marine Corps Reserve”.

    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • cer August 7, 2017 at 12:32 pm

      I’m not a huge fan of these sort of Trump tweets, but he is generally correct imho about Blumenthal being a fraud.

      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • andyroo312 August 7, 2017 at 1:08 pm

      Hard at work!


    • MikeFL August 7, 2017 at 2:03 pm

      Yeah, Trump really should stop personal attacks on politicians’ military service, even if there’s truth, since he’s just as much a fraud with his bone spurs.

      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • jncca August 7, 2017 at 3:29 pm

        Trump only attacks if it’s a weakness he sees in himself.

        Low stamina. Crooked. Lyin. Etc.

        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • Conservative First August 7, 2017 at 12:44 pm

    Club for Growth endorsements:
    MT-Senate: Matt Rosendale
    UT-3: Chris Herrod

    • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 1:43 pm

      What’s notable is who’s absent! No endorsement for Mo Brooks.

      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • cer August 7, 2017 at 2:09 pm

        It’s disappointing that Brooks isn’t getting even more endorsements.

        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • Tekzilla August 8, 2017 at 12:23 am

          Hmmmmmm I wonder why, maybe Moore is sucking up what should have been his ground?

          36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • shamlet August 7, 2017 at 2:35 pm

      In other UT-3 news, Palin is backing Ainge. http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/palin-endorses-tanner-ainge-chaffetz-seat-primary

      R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Left Coast Libertarian August 7, 2017 at 6:51 pm

        So Danny is probably a Republican too. So that means the Celtic GM, Patriot QB, head coach, and owner are all Republicans. In Massachusetts.

        • Indy1975a August 7, 2017 at 9:09 pm

          Ainge is a well known R. I don’t think the Pats owner Bob Kraft is a R; he donated lots of money to Kerry and Obama. I think he’s close friends with Trump.

          Independent, R until November 2016

          • Left Coast Libertarian August 8, 2017 at 10:35 am

            I made a bad assumption. Since Kraft has been reported to be close friends with Trump I assumed he was a Republican. Actually I don’t know if Brady or Belichick are either. They just supported Trump.

        • FiveAngels August 8, 2017 at 12:44 am

          Keep in mind that most people who form the backbone of Boston sports fan culture are Scott Brown Republicans + Stephen Lynch Democrats.

    • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 2:49 pm

      The Herrod endorsement also represents a change in direction for the CfG as well. The CfG used to be more pro-growth when it came to immigration and Herrod made a name for himself ad more of an anti-immigration advocate. I guess in the age of Trump the CfG is willing to bend a knee on this issue.

      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Conservative First August 7, 2017 at 3:02 pm

        Not true. CFG has never taken a position on immigration. They have endorsed plenty of immigration hardliners over the years, including Steve King (2002) and Jim DeMint (2004).

    • Octosteel August 7, 2017 at 1:52 pm

      And he was all in on Strange! And all in on Shane Osborne! And all in on Charlie Crist!

    • MikeFL August 7, 2017 at 2:04 pm

      Good, probably better to spend on Heller than Flake at this point, even though I 100% agree with Flake.

      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

  • shamlet August 7, 2017 at 2:34 pm

    Row Officers News:

    OK-Supt: The campaign finance indictment against Superintendent Joy Hoffmeister (R) last year has now been dropped. http://www.normantranscript.com/news/government/questions-linger-on-dismissal-of-charges-in-state-superintendent-case/article_d59c94e8-2f6d-508f-b74c-76bc004f3286.html

    OK-Lab Comm: Cathy Costello (R), widow of prior incumbent Mark (R) who was murdered by his mentally disturbed son in 2015, will run in 2018. Will face State Rep. Leslie Osborn (R). http://www.reddirtreport.com/red-dirt-news/cathy-costello-announces-plans-run-oklahoma-labor-commissioner

    SC-AG: AG Alan Wilson (R) may have his own special prosecutor problems as he allegedly tried to interfere with a special prosecutor as they were investigating his consultants/confidantes. http://www.postandcourier.com/politics/emails-south-carolina-ag-coordinated-with-key-figure-in-statehouse/article_db600c26-7871-11e7-9109-7bb3a89fa640.html

    IA-SoS: Businesswoman Dierdre DeJear (D) is in. Will face congressional candidate Jim Mowrer (D) in the primary to take on incumbent Paul Pate (R). http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2017/08/04/businesswoman-deidre-dejear-run-iowa-secretary-state/541044001/

    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet August 7, 2017 at 2:37 pm

    Local news:

    Raleigh Mayor: The local D party is backing attorney Charles Francis (D) over center-left incumbent Nancy McFarlane (I), who has had D support in the past. http://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/counties/wake-county/article164795172.html

    MD-AA-CE: County commissioner John Grasso (R) is running for Anne Arundel county exec, challenging incumbent Steve Schuh (R). http://www.capitalgazette.com/news/elections/ph-ac-cn-grasso-announcement-0803-20170802-story.html

    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • segmentation_fault August 7, 2017 at 3:34 pm

      McFarlane points out that she still has the backing of prominent Dems, as Attorney General Stein held a fundraiser for her recently.

      En Marche!

  • shamlet August 7, 2017 at 2:38 pm

    TN-Gov: State Rep. Craig Fitzhugh (D) is in. http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/06/craig-fitzhugh-run-governor-tennessee-setting-up-contested-democratic-primary/526604001/

    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • rdelbov August 7, 2017 at 2:45 pm

      I almost posted this article as it popped up locally. I consider Fitzhugh a picture of the old D party and not the new one. Rural and somewhat moderate Fitzhugh represents the old D party. I can’t imagine he will get enough money to make a serious run. I think the urban votes in Nashville area and Memphis will swamp him. Plus even rural areas the liberal core still might out vote the old conservative yellow dog democrats who still vote in the D primary.

      • TennesseeMike August 7, 2017 at 6:34 pm

        “I think the urban votes in Nashville area and Memphis will swamp him.”
        Totally agree. Being the Ex-Nashville Mayor will give Karl Dean the victory in the Democrat primary. And he will likely lose to Diane Black in the General election.
        There were a name ID poll not long ago. About half the state knows Diane Black. About 35% knows Karl Dean. Everyone else trailed badly. I know this doesn’t equal votes, but it still means something.

        TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

    • Tekzilla August 8, 2017 at 12:24 am

      Weird, why run against Dean who at least has a small but a live chance of winning the general?

      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • TennesseeMike August 8, 2017 at 11:18 am

        Maybe he’s tired of being in a minority caucus of 25%. Yep, the Democrats have only 25% (25 of 99) of the Tennessee State House.

        TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

  • shamlet August 7, 2017 at 2:39 pm

    WI-Gov: State Rep. Dana Wachs (D) is in. http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/07/dana-wachs-challenge-gov-scott-walker/541219001/

    Gadflyish (to put it generously) ex-State Rep. and 2014 candidate Brett Hulsey (D) is also considering. http://www.capitalgazette.com/news/elections/ph-ac-cn-grasso-announcement-0803-20170802-story.html

    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • shamlet August 7, 2017 at 2:44 pm

    More Gov candidates considering:

    AL-Gov: Byrne. http://local15tv.com/news/local/congressman-byrne-considers-running-for-governor
    NY-Gov: Paladino. http://www.twcnews.com/nys/buffalo/politics/2017/08/3/carl-paladino-donald-trump-run-governor-new-york.html
    MN-Gov: Ex-State Sen. Amy Koch (R), most notable for leaving office after having an affair with a staffer in 2011. http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/4307995-former-minnesota-senate-majority-leader-koch-considers-run-governor

    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 2:53 pm

      I thought Byrne said he was happy with the work he was doing in Congress and leaning against a Gov run.

      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • edtorres04 August 7, 2017 at 3:16 pm

      Paladino? Great 🙁

    • andyroo312 August 7, 2017 at 3:19 pm

      Paladino would be a commanding front-runner for the GOP nod and has an absolute ceiling of maybe 37 percent in a general election.


      • shamlet August 7, 2017 at 4:31 pm

        I have to wonder how a 3-way of Paladino, Cuomo, and Nixon would turn out. I think Cuomo would still win but I bet it would be with a shockingly low plurality (40%ish) because with Paladino as the R the left would have little reason to stick with him.

        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

        • CTIronman August 7, 2017 at 4:44 pm

          I’d probably vote for Nixon

        • andyroo312 August 7, 2017 at 6:46 pm

          I highly doubt Nixon would run third-party. That said, if she somehow did, I suspect Cuomo would prevail by about 45-35-20.


          • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 6:50 pm

            The trick would be for Cuomo to run as a third party after Nixon barely wins a low turnout Dem primary after a bunch of recounts.

            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • CTIronman August 7, 2017 at 7:08 pm

              That requires an R nominee for NYGov who isn’t radioactive outside WNY

        • kewgardens August 7, 2017 at 11:18 pm

          51 Cuomo- 32 Paladino- 15 Nixon- 2 Other. Not all that different from the results of the 1990 NYS gubernatorial election, in which Mario Cuomo won a third term with disappointing numbers against pathetic opposition. (Although I always liked Hebert London) Weak numbers that undercut Cuomo’s image as a Democratic powerhouse going into the 1992 election campaign. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_gubernatorial_election,_1990

  • shamlet August 7, 2017 at 2:45 pm

    MD-Gov: Nice glowing longread on Hogan. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/2017/07/27/e86813e8-6893-11e7-a1d7-9a32c91c6f40_story.html?utm_term=.b500f8c24638

    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Ryan_in_SEPA August 7, 2017 at 3:34 pm


    PA Congressional fundraising in Q2 – Costello leads the pack. Smucker worries me because he lags behind consistently.

    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

    • rdelbov August 7, 2017 at 3:57 pm

      Pretty average fundraising for Smucker —most congressman can do that with their eyes closed. I hope he working the district harder then that. I would not worry about his re-election chances if he was working the district. His 2016 foe is running again and she raised big bucks so he does not need to be caught napping.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA August 7, 2017 at 8:23 pm

        Smucker worries me most because he has never fought a tough race and the Lancaster County GOP is competent, but not used to fighting aggressive challengers. In addition, Smucker represents parts of Chester and Berks where the local Republican Party is not particularly strong.

        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

        • TheWizardOf144 August 7, 2017 at 9:28 pm

          “He has never fought a tough race ”

          Do you not remember his first state senate primary?

          • Ryan_in_SEPA August 7, 2017 at 10:32 pm

            In a general…

            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • shamlet August 7, 2017 at 4:59 pm

    KS-Gov: Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer (R) is in. http://www.kfdi.com/news/insurance-commissioner-to-run-for-governor

    R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 5:56 pm

      I’m not familiar with Selzer. RINO or conservative?

      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • shamlet August 7, 2017 at 6:33 pm

        Sort of in between a la Wagle.

        R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • w920us August 7, 2017 at 5:05 pm

    Maxine Waters Won’t Rule Out All-Black Party

    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • kewgardens August 7, 2017 at 11:23 pm

      Go for it!!!! And make Maxine the presidential standard-bearer for 2020.

      Thoughts on how a Trump-Warren-Waters race would look like?

      • californianintexas August 8, 2017 at 1:40 am

        Trump would probably flip Minnesota and Colorado. Virginia would come down to the wire I think. And Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would become further out of reach for Warren.

        Have there been any serious presidential contenders in their 80s?

        34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

  • Mayor Perk August 7, 2017 at 5:27 pm

    NV-Sen: Heller 38% Tarkarnian 34% (head to head). Amodei 27%, Heller 26%, Tark 21% (three way matchup).


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • TheWizardOf144 August 7, 2017 at 5:36 pm

      The GOP base is very, very angry. 2016 didn’t seem to send that message. Perhaps 2018 will (with Senator Roy Moore elected in 2017 as the entr’acte).

      • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 5:58 pm

        The Nevada GOP base is unique.

        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • TheWizardOf144 August 7, 2017 at 6:22 pm

          Which is why Flake isn’t in the same position in AZ, Kid Rock is way behind in MI GOP Primary polls, and Luther Strange and Mo Brooks are cruising to the runoff in AL…oh, wait.

          • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 6:48 pm

            No, the NV GOP really is unique. There is a unique libertarian anti authority strain in NV Republicans that doesnt exist anywhere else. Its the Sharon Angle base.

            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • krazen1211 August 7, 2017 at 8:02 pm

            AZ and NV certainly have their odd strains of GOP voters, but that’s not the only reason why these 2 have problems.

            Rubio and Toomey come from very Trumpish states and neither had primary problems…even as the former pulled some major BS in sliding down to the Senate race and screwing Desantis in the process.

            • Ryan_in_SEPA August 7, 2017 at 8:20 pm

              The difference for Toomey is that he has a nice batch of Republican friendly voters who wanted to vote for him and Hillary. In addition, Toomey played very well with Trump’s number one issue, immigration.

              Arizona and Nevada on the other hand do not have such flexibility. In addition, Flake has in particular went out of his way to hate the base and support open borders BS. If Flake could even fake some tough on immigration rhetoric he would not be in this situation. He gets what he deserves.

              31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

      • JJC August 7, 2017 at 6:49 pm

        Say hello to Senator Kid Rock!

      • Vosmyorka August 7, 2017 at 7:31 pm

        This is the sort of message that is just very difficult to send in a two-party system. When you’re angry with your party in most European countries, you can often move to a different one; when your only options are a party that you’re pretty angry with or the party that you abhor, the party you’re pretty angry with will never get the message.

        You can try changing it gradually through nomination contests, but that’s only going to work if the reason for your anger and your nomination contest electorate stays constant — neither is the case in our present environment, which is why the wave of Tea Party entrances earlier in the decade failed to blunt the anger and why the Trump victory in the presidential nomination totally failed to be replicated in 2016’s open nomination contests (with, I guess, the sole exception of Clay Higgins’ victory in LA-3).

        Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

    • WingNightAlone August 7, 2017 at 5:56 pm

      Amodei or Cegavske or someone should step in.

      25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

    • andyroo312 August 7, 2017 at 6:48 pm

      Yeesh. Heller and Flake are in such rough shape.


  • Izengabe August 7, 2017 at 6:17 pm

    WV-Sen: Sen. Joe Manchin doesn’t “give a s–t” if his liberal voting record cost him re-election.
    “I don’t give a s–t, you understand? I just don’t give a s–t” “Don’t care if I get elected, don’t care if I get defeated, how about that. If they think because I’m up for election, that I can be wrangled into voting for s–t that I don’t like and can’t explain, they’re all crazy,” “I’m not scared of an election, let’s put it that way. Elections do not bother me or scare me,” “I’m going to continue to do the same thing I’ve always done”

    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • TheWizardOf144 August 7, 2017 at 6:20 pm

      This ‘tude probably is seen as a positive in WV.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA August 7, 2017 at 8:13 pm

        People outside the core of Appalachia don’t understand how powerful raw anger is regardless of who its directed to. The Scots-Irish love their tyrants.

        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • CTIronman August 7, 2017 at 7:07 pm

    Starting think you either had to go full refusenik from day 1 ala Collins or lash yourself to the hull for the whole thing. Trying to split the baby angered everyone

    • krazen1211 August 7, 2017 at 7:24 pm

      Posted a nice thread about this earlier.

      Collins and Murkowski are unique in that they don’t need Trump voters. They also have many terms under their belt. Everyone else needs Trump voters.

      Flake and Heller are 1st termers causing trouble and engaging in insubordination.

      The irony is that Flake and Heller need very few Hillary voters!

      • Indy1975a August 7, 2017 at 9:00 pm

        Heller very likely needs some non-Trump voters. Flake, probably not, but he frankly feels like Manchin in that he doesn’t give a s***. He’d rather lose his seat than go Trumpist.

        Independent, R until November 2016

  • JJC August 7, 2017 at 7:09 pm


    It’s possible Strange may not even make it to the primary runoff. I wonder at this point if being seen as the GOP establishment’s choice may actually be a disadvantage.

    • Vosmyorka August 7, 2017 at 7:33 pm

      Considering the many corruption scandals of the Alabama Republican establishment and the state’s quite high affinity for Trumpism, if there’s one place we’d expect that to be the case, it’d be in Alabama.

      Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

    • MikeFL August 7, 2017 at 7:36 pm

      It’s probably more the entire Bentley saga than anything.

      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

    • Boehnerwasright August 7, 2017 at 8:52 pm

      The whole way Strange was appointed by Bently while he was investigating him as the AG was really shady. Add to that the senate failure and HC and other republican priorities it is understandble that strange is struggleing.

  • MosheM August 7, 2017 at 11:10 pm

    Google proves all conservative critics right.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • jncca August 7, 2017 at 11:45 pm

      Businesses are going to do what is good for business.

      I oppose this on principle but that’s the system we have. I wish we had tougher regulations on business so they couldn’t do this (no firing anyone for their personal beliefs unless you can prove it impedes the business’s product somehow) but I don’t exactly see Republicans pushing to get tougher on corporations…

      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

      • Mike1965 August 7, 2017 at 11:53 pm

        He would of had protection if he was in a union.

        "Don't believe everything you read on the Internet" - Abraham Lincoln

        • Indy1975a August 8, 2017 at 12:01 am

          20 years ago maybe. Most unions today aren’t going to go to the mat for things that are not “politically correct”. If a union worker regularly used ethnic/gender slurs for example, I doubt the union would fight their firing.

          Independent, R until November 2016

      • MosheM August 8, 2017 at 4:54 am

        I don’t expect liberals to fight that “good for business” is only being a leftist SJW.

        What goes around comes around.

        This is the type of thing that “triggers” people like me to vote to reelect Trump despite the sh**show.

        28, M, R, NY-10

        • Tekzilla August 8, 2017 at 10:02 am

          Funny enough someone who talks about impeaching Trump who then says they will vote for Trump because of Google firing someone is the exact type of thing that will get me to happily vote for Liz Warren lol.

          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • MosheM August 8, 2017 at 10:17 am


            And you know it’s not just “Google firing someone”….
            Dems have created a culture in this country that there are certain jobs that conservatives have to be fired from.

            28, M, R, NY-10

    • Indy1975a August 7, 2017 at 11:58 pm

      I don’t agree with much of what he said (some of his rant was based on pseudo-science stuff like “race realism”, one former poster regularly pumped that crap here), but he also did make a lot of good points and suggestions. He certainly should NOT have been fired or disciplined for writing this.

      OTOH, if he wrote on company time, then Google has more justification here. But only if they enforce that principle in a viewpoint neutral manner, which assuredly they do not. Or if he behaved in a discriminatory manner in the workplace (if he regularly denigrated women he worked), Google would be justified in taking action.

      Independent, R until November 2016

      • Mike1965 August 8, 2017 at 12:01 am

        At will employee, they don’t need a justification.

        "Don't believe everything you read on the Internet" - Abraham Lincoln

        • Indy1975a August 8, 2017 at 12:12 am

          I know that legally that is the case. I’m talking from a moral perspective; firing this guy for his screed was wrong.

          Independent, R until November 2016

          • Mike1965 August 8, 2017 at 12:18 am


            "Don't believe everything you read on the Internet" - Abraham Lincoln

        • Son_of_the_South August 8, 2017 at 12:17 am

          Yes, yes, we get your point, unions unions unions.

          23, R, TN-08
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • Mike1965 August 8, 2017 at 12:22 am


            "Don't believe everything you read on the Internet" - Abraham Lincoln

    • Republican Michigander August 8, 2017 at 9:42 am

      Time to send the trust busters against Silicon Valley.

      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • MosheM August 8, 2017 at 7:43 am

    Danny Tarkanian: “I’m very excited to announce that I’m going to run for United States Senate here in Nevada against Dean Heller.” https://t.co/aGPpLuESvl

    28, M, R, NY-10

    • krazen1211 August 8, 2017 at 8:03 am

      Should keep Tarkanian out of NV-03.

      • edtorres04 August 8, 2017 at 9:55 am

        Ironically, he would have won election to the senate had he won the primary in 2010. Very sad. He’s now a laughable candidate.

    • Republican Michigander August 8, 2017 at 10:04 am

      I’d vote Pence, Cruz, Rand Paul, or Walker over Trump in a primary. Rubio maybe.

      But not Kasich, who I was actually strongly considering last time in the primary.

      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • krazen1211 August 8, 2017 at 2:12 pm

      Thankfully Kasich’s base of worthless RINOs is probably going to vote in the Dem clown car and not in our primary.

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