Political Roundup for August 8th, 2017

Welcome to today’s tardy roundup!

Senate

NV-Sen: Perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian has announced a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Dean Heller. The concerning thing here is that a recent poll found Tarkanian would lead Heller in a head-to-head matchup, 38%-34% (yes, a ton of undecideds from a not very venerable pollster, so salt!). Not a good development for Republicans in arguably the most likely to flip seat this Senate cycle. Meanwhile, a McConnell-linked Super PAC is set to flood the zone for Heller.

AL-Sen: Like our own survey of the race, a JMC Analytics poll finds former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore leading appointed Sen. Luther Strange and Rep. Mo Brooks. However, in this poll Brooks is closer to the rest of the pack, with Moore on top with 30% and Strange and Brooks trailing with 22% and 19%, respectively.

CT-Sen: After Sen. Richard Blumenthal voiced support for investigating possible Russian collusion in the last presidential election, President Trump laid into the Connecticut Democrat via his preferred medium of Twitter. Trump is probably one of the worst possible messengers here, calling Blumenthal a “phony Vietnam con artist” despite his own questionable Vietnam War draft deferments. Maybe Blumenthal will get a nice fundraising bump from being attacked by Trump, although he doesn’t have a reelection until 2022.

Governor

MN-Gov: Former Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch (R) is considering a run for Governor. Koch was seen as something of a rising star until her 2011 affair with a Republican operative, which resulted in her ouster from leadership. Since then Koch became a lobbyist, hosts a popular bipartisan podcast, and owned a bowling alley (random assortment, I know!). Anyway, Hennepin County Commissioner and 2014 nominee Jeff Johnson (R) is the leader of a pack of lesser-known candidates at the moment, although people are waiting on House Minority Leader Kurt Daudt’s decision as well.

WI-Gov: State Rep. Dana Wachs (D) is running against Gov. Scott Walker (R) for Governor. Wachs joins businessman Andy Gronik in the Democratic primary, although a number of other Democrats including State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, and Wisconsin Schools Superintendent Tony Evers are also considering runs. Wachs apparently plans to partially self-fund the bid.

TN-Gov: State Rep. and House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh is running for Governor or Tennessee, setting up a contested Democratic statewide primary. Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean (D) is already running. One major fissure might be school choice, where Fitzhugh is more aligned with traditional unions and Dean supported charter schools as mayor. A Republican is still highly likely to win here, with Rep. Diane Black, House Speaker Beth Harwell, and State Sen. Mae Beavers as the most prominent GOP candidates in the race.

House

UT-3: Once-relevant Sarah Palin has endorsed Tanner Ainge in the Utah special congressional election to fill former Rep. Jason Chaffetz’ seat in the Republican primary. Meanwhile, the Club for Growth has chosen State Rep. Chris Herrod for the primary. The CfG has the ability to throw serious money in this race, unlike Palin nowadays.

TX-23: Rep. Will Hurd (R) got his first viable Democratic opponent last week, former Air Force intelligence officer and US Trade Representative staffer Gina Ortiz Jones. Former Rep. Pete Gallego (D) is still considering a run, but it is unclear if the field will clear for him in this anti-Trump political cycle and coming off a defeat at Hurd’s hands..

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109 Comments

  • TennesseeMike August 8, 2017 at 11:32 am

    Craig Fitzhugh might get some support from teacher union elements but, I’m happy to say, the teachers union is not very strong in Tennessee. I strongly believe Karl Dean will use his Nashville connections to give him the victory in the 2018 Democrat primary. I also strongly believe he will lose to the Republican nominee. Right now, it seems Diane Black will be the choice of Republicans. A recent name ID poll found 49% of Tennessee voters knew who Diane Black was. Karl Dean was second with about 35% and no one else, Republican or Democrat, came close.


    TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

  • OGGoldy August 8, 2017 at 12:27 pm

    Are you eligible to immigrate to the US under the proposed RAISE act?

    Not 100% electorally related, but I figured all the political junkies would be interested in taking this quiz.
    http://time.com/4887574/trump-raise-act-immigration/

    For the record, I am a 32 year old engineer with masters degree in Nanoparticle Technology and Engineering from a major US university, and make 78,000 per year, and I would be ineligible to move the the US under those standards.

    • MosheM August 8, 2017 at 12:39 pm

      I’m eligible. But the point isn’t for who is already here. We also have (on the extreme) homeless people. Should we bring them in?

      Also it means that you are over 40…


      29, M, R, NY-10

      • OGGoldy August 8, 2017 at 12:46 pm

        Had to double check my pay stub. My salary is 77,834 per year. So that puts me at 28 points.

        Kudos for you on your eligibility. I am not sure I know a single person in my life that would be eligible. Maybe my boss (engineering manager) but I don’t know what he makes, so that’s only a possibility.

        • MosheM August 8, 2017 at 12:50 pm

          But my starting salary coming here wouldn’t have been the same…


          29, M, R, NY-10

      • edtorres04 August 8, 2017 at 12:48 pm

        I’m eligible and I didn’t win a nobel prize or Olympic medal.

        • OGGoldy August 8, 2017 at 1:09 pm

          Aren’t you a medical doctor? Any system that prevents English speaking MDs would be even crazier.

    • Izengabe August 8, 2017 at 12:47 pm

      @OGGOLDY well maybe they should keep you out because your math skills stink! 😉
      8 points for being 32 + 8 points for your masters + 12 points for being fluent in English (and I am assuming you are based on your posts here) + 5 points for having a job that pays you $78,000 a year = 33 points which means you are welcome to come to the US!!!!

      The bottom line is having an open borders immigration system to the best and brightest is not a bad idea. Having a system which brings highly educated and wealthy immigrants to the US is a pro-growth position that will benefit the US long term. Are current immigration system is a mess and small steps like this that mimic what places like Canada do are definitely in the right direction.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Ryan_in_SEPA August 8, 2017 at 1:01 pm

        This proposal mimics the Canadian points system. If you are left wing and oppose Canada you are not left wing enough!


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

        • OGGoldy August 8, 2017 at 1:20 pm

          I checked the Canadian website, and assuming, and it appears as though I am eligible to move to Canada even without a job offer. Hardly apples to apples.

      • OGGoldy August 8, 2017 at 1:08 pm

        I corrected to my actual salary of 77,834, which left me with 28 points. That goes to show me for rounding!

        • MosheM August 8, 2017 at 1:11 pm

          Ask for a raise of $1.27 per week and you’re all set… lol


          29, M, R, NY-10

      • OGGoldy August 8, 2017 at 1:14 pm

        I’m not saying filtering is a horrible idea. But this filter system is insane. With an MS in engineering fluent in the native language, i could move pretty much anywhere in the world, including Canada. The problem isn’t setting a bar it’s that this bar is way far out there.

    • Ryan_in_SEPA August 8, 2017 at 1:00 pm

      I would be eligible as well.


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • TennesseeMike August 8, 2017 at 1:26 pm

      I would not be eligible. I think having a job offer should be enough without means testing. Or at least it should be much lower. Making about 80,000? You could almost live like a king in rural Tennessee. Most people in my area are doing very well if they make more than 50,000.


      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

      • MosheM August 8, 2017 at 1:51 pm

        And here in NYC, you can only afford to live in a one-bedroom apartment.


        29, M, R, NY-10

        • TennesseeMike August 8, 2017 at 2:05 pm

          I’m sure.
          I agree we need some standards so immigrants don’t drag down our society or economy. But depending where you live you don’t have to make 80,000 not to be a drag. So I think those standards are too high.


          TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

          • shamlet August 8, 2017 at 2:57 pm

            Yeah, I think the income scale should be based on the median income for your job’s area, with median income at the first level, 1 SD above median at the second point level, 2SDs third level, etc. Has the added benefit of automatically indexing for inflation.


            R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

            • shamlet August 8, 2017 at 2:59 pm

              Also the Nobel Prize and Olympic medal carve-out categories are stupid and ridiculous. I would just set up a separate back-channel for exceptional merit outside the points system but cap it at a very low number (i.e. 1000/year) and make it by a competitive application reviewed by a congressionally-appointed committee.


              R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Jon Henrik Gilhuus August 8, 2017 at 1:44 pm

      I’d have 19 points at best. Sad!


      The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
      - P.J. O'Rourke

    • californianintexas August 8, 2017 at 1:51 pm

      Neither my husband nor I would be eligible. Even at my old job, I only made 40K. Salaries in Utah tend to be more modest, which is one explanation for the state having the lowest inequality.


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

      • zbigreddogz August 8, 2017 at 3:25 pm

        Utah has very low costs of living though, correct? Or has that changed in recent years (I haven’t been there since the 90’s).

        • californianintexas August 8, 2017 at 4:23 pm

          Yes cost of living here is fairly low.


          34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • rdw72777 August 8, 2017 at 4:07 pm

      How come no one has raised the point that winning an Olympic medal is pretty meaningless from an economic benefit point of view. The vast majority of Olympic athletes, particularly winter Olympic athletes, are relatively poor and not a boon to the economy. I mean there’s a reason that many of them work in a Home Depot warehouse during their off-seasons…

      Also why would investing $1M in a US based business be worth 0 points, that seems kind of dumb? Seems like it should be worth a couple of points to come in with $1M ready to spend…

      I got 32 points.

      • w920us August 8, 2017 at 7:14 pm

        Maybe it’s one of those predictive rules. Being an Olympic medal winner means you almost certainly are a very disciplined individual. And wouldn’t be a drag on the economy or the healthcare system.
        But I agree it’s an odd category to include.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • Izengabe August 8, 2017 at 7:35 pm

        Olympic athletes could be a Cuban baseball player clause!


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • segmentation_fault August 8, 2017 at 4:20 pm

      But NAFTA TN Visa allows Mexicans (and Canadians) to come to the US much more easily (and vice versa). I’m assuming that will be “renegotiated”?

    • Tekzilla August 8, 2017 at 4:37 pm

      19, I am not eligible 🙁


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • MaxwellsDemon August 8, 2017 at 5:21 pm

      I’m eligible with 34 points

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 8, 2017 at 8:13 pm

      48. I guess I’m in. I know someone who would have scored a 46, but was actually denied entry into the US. It took him an extra 6 months to “backdoor” in.

      There are a lot of dumb things about the act, as people have mentioned, but it’d be an improvement.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • Izengabe August 8, 2017 at 1:00 pm

    I think Tark running for NV-Sen is not the worst thing in the world for the GOP. It prevents a more serious challenger (with a lot less baggage) from stepping in and causing Heller real trouble in the primary, it prevents Tark from tanking NV-3 again for the GOP and Tark is the type to play nice after he loses a primary. A Sharron Angle type could really aggravate the populist base in a way Tark never could and could cause them to sit on their hands in November after Heller wins the primary.


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • prsteve11 August 8, 2017 at 1:35 pm

      Tark seems to sort of be a kamikaze candidate. I suppose we’ll have to see how well he does in the primary statewide as opposed to NV-03 which is like you say a very legitimate pick-up opportunity.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • shamlet August 8, 2017 at 1:37 pm

        I mean, at this point we have to start considering the possibility that he’s a plant. His mom is a D after all…


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • LVGOP August 8, 2017 at 2:07 pm

          While I can attest Lois is a D, she is not of the raging liberal side. She use to be my County Commish and I never voted for her, I always knew it could be worse.

          Danny on the other hand, well Danny is beginning to make life miserable for Republicans in my home state. I can only hope that McConnell buries him with as much money as possible. Democrats are giddy with joy. My best case scenario is that Heller builds his organization stronger with a primary while outside money buries Tark.

          This will make the GOP primary even more interesting. U will have Amodei v. Angle, Dan Schwartz v. A.Laxalt, the CD3 Clusterfuck and now Heller v. Tark. It’s going to be a very interesting couple of months.


          R/32/NV-3

  • Ryan_in_SEPA August 8, 2017 at 1:03 pm

    GOP Comitteeman murdered over Trump dispute in my Township.

    http://www.dailylocal.com/general-news/20170808/man-fatally-shot-tuesday-in-west-goshen-after-dispute-with-neighbor-over-president-trump


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Manhatlibertarian August 8, 2017 at 2:58 pm

      The article doesn’t give you the details but in the comments section it is stated that the shooter posted anti-Trump signs in his yard. Need to get the details to see if this wan’t primarily some type of neighbor dispute that was aggravated by political differences or if this shooting was primarily done because of politics. First I’ve heard of the incident.

  • MosheM August 8, 2017 at 1:09 pm

    Cohn is making a valid point here. https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/894964351433678849


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • TennesseeMike August 8, 2017 at 1:21 pm

      If Democrats nearly lose the popular vote, they would also likely lose the Electoral College.


      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

      • Vosmyorka August 8, 2017 at 2:36 pm

        Counting it out, Democrats lose the Electoral College by more than real-life 2016 in this scenario (Trump is at 311 instead of 306 — NV, NH, ME-Statewide, and MN all flip to him, while AZ and UT flip to his opponent), but 3 of his victories — in GA, NV, and TX — are all within 0.5%; TX plus either of the others flips the election to the Democrats. In terms of universal swing to a Democratic victory, it’s a significantly closer race than 2016.

        If trends do repeat from 2016, then Republicans entrench themselves fairly nicely in the Midwest at the cost of Texas becoming an actual swing state.


        Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

        • zbigreddogz August 8, 2017 at 3:27 pm

          If trends do repeat from 2016, then Republicans entrench themselves fairly nicely in the Midwest at the cost of Texas becoming an actual swing state.

          Fascinating.

          Interesting time to be alive.

        • prsteve11 August 8, 2017 at 7:44 pm

          Somehow I don’t get this trend. I don’t think even the most optimistic Dem would claim that TX is about to flip. It was closer (still 9 points isn’t really close) and Texans for various reasons just didn’t really click with Trump.


          SC-03, Conservative Republican

          • Vosmyorka August 8, 2017 at 11:12 pm

            Well, yeah. In real life trends never exactly replicate, and they often reverse entirely. Possibly more often than they continue. 2012’s strongest trend was Utah towards the Republicans; 2016’s strongest trend was Utah towards the Democrats. It’s just a response to Cohn’s exercise.


            Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

  • prsteve11 August 8, 2017 at 1:32 pm

    Ugh, I realized I posted this in the wrong forum so, my apologies, here is again:

    Interestingly, on a side note, the South African parliament (fairly narrowly) defeated a no confidence vote on the ludicrously corrupt President Jacob Zuma. The vote failed 177-198 which was a marked increase in previous votes that had not been by secret ballot. If it had passed, there may have needed to be elections in the short term. Now, it appears that Zuma will last until his term ends in 2019 when the next elections are up which is sad because he’s been very bad for the SA economic and moral climate. This could ultimately be bad news for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) because Zuma already helped drag down their party support from 62% nationally in 2014 to just 54% in municipally in 2016. There’s no telling what this buffoon will do in the next 2 years.


    SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • Vosmyorka August 8, 2017 at 2:39 pm

      I know on the municipal level in a lot of places there have been broad nonideological anti-ANC coalitions formed (like, between the liberal, mostly-racial minority DA and the communist, black nationalist EFF) — would that be an option on the national level if the ANC finishes below 50%? Even if they don’t in 2019, it seems pretty clear that they’re not going to be able to hold on to a majority through another decade at present trends. Israel and India took 29-30 years for the first time the national liberation party lost an election, which estimates the ANC’s defeat in 2024, though my hunch is that without some sort of catastrophe (like the Indian Emergency, or the blow to national prestige in the Yom Kippur War) that the ANC should hold on a bit longer than those parties.


      Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

      • prsteve11 August 8, 2017 at 4:44 pm

        Correct. In 2016, the municipal elections were the worst performance of the ANC since the first fully democratic elections in 1994 and the big city centers like Johannesburg, Pretoria (Tshwane) and Port Elizabeth all flipped to DA – in most cases under coalition control. The problem, of course, is that the DA and the EFF are not ideological cousins with the DA never able to quite shake the ‘white party’ image and the EFF being a largely fringe, black radical, communist party. It’s hard to see how those two will be able to form a coalition and keep a straight face for long. Thus, the question is if the ANC drops below 50% in 2019, will the DA and the EFF team up or will the EFF join the more ideologically aligned (though not exactly) ANC and form a coalition with them to keep them in power, in return for a couple minister posts or something? Interesting stuff, but I think the ANC hurt itself in 2019 by holding onto the highly unpopular Zuma.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • Manhatlibertarian August 8, 2017 at 2:38 pm

    Tuesday NY Tidbits:

    The Dem Primary for mayor of Syracuse has narrowed to 3 from 7 for the Sept 12 primary: Dem organization endorsed City Councilor Joe Nicoletti, City Auditor Marty Masterpole and NY State Dept of Labor official and former Dean of Students at Syracuse University Juanita Perez Williams. The other 4 either dropped out, couldn’t get enough signatures or had enough of their nominating petition signatures invalidated by challenges to be knocked off the ballot (an art form in NY State). Syracuse has not elected a GOP mayor since 2001 and 55% of voters are Dems, so the winner of the Dem primary will be the favorite in November.

    Although the NYC suburban Westchester County Legislature has passed legislation limiting the ability of county law enforcement officers to work with ICE on illegal immigrants by a 10-5 vote, GOP CE Rob Astorino (potential GOP candidate for Gov in 2018) has promised a veto. Legislation proponents will need to get the votes of the 2 legislators who didn’t vote (17 members of legislature) to override the veto, an uphill endeavor.

    While Mayor deBlasio says he doesn’t have enough $ on hand to spare to help the MTA make much need improvements to the subways and commuter trains, NYC is being sued because the city plans to pay $13.6 million in legal fees of the mayor and his top aides to defend against corruption investigations. Mayor deB’s primary opponent, former NYC Councilman Sal Albanese, and Reform Party Boss Curtis Sliwa (of crime buster Guardian Angel’s fame) have filed the lawsuit.

    The Mayor has suggested that the city raise income taxes on millionaires to pay for transit improvements but GOP Majority Leader Flanagan says the State Senate will not approve this and Gov Cuomo doesn’t seem very interested in the idea. Flanagan suggests the city use some of its $4 billion surplus instead but the mayor says the MTA is a state agency and Cuomo should pay for transit improvements, he doesn’t want to use surplus funds.

    Va Senator Tim Kaine is flying into Long Island’s affluent Hamptons to raise $ for his re-election. Senator Harris of Cal did so in July as did Gov Cuomo twice. Lizzie and Jon Tisch, the CEO of Loew’s Hotels and co-owner of the NY Giants will host the expensive Kaine fundraiser. It seems like the glitzy Hamptons is getting to be a national cash refuel station for Dems across the country. Makes you wonder who some Repubs are so interested in giving tax breaks to wealthy people (think also Manhattan, SF, Silicon Valley, Hollywood/Beverley Hills etc.).

    If Cuomo got the Dem nomination for Pres in 2020 against Trump, it would mean both candidates grew up in Queens, NY, only a few miles from each other (although Trump is more than 10 years older). Queens is also where I grew up, but I’m not running for anything and don’t blame me for those two!

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

    • kewgardens August 8, 2017 at 3:09 pm

      If Cuomo got the Dem nomination for Pres in 2020 against Trump, it would mean both candidates grew up in Queens, NY, only a few miles from each other (although Trump is more than 10 years older). Queens is also where I grew up, but I’m not running for anything and don’t blame me for those two!

      Queens rules!! From another RRH contributor that rule up in Queens. (And who lived only about two miles from Trump’s boyhood home.) As Mario Cuomo used to say, “you can take the kid out of Queens, but you can’t take Queens out of the kid.” For better or worse.

      By the way, anyone know the last time both major party nominees came from the same county? Has it ever happened?

      • shamlet August 8, 2017 at 3:17 pm

        Depending on how you define “from” it happened in 1944. Dewey was by that time living in Pawling, Dutchess County, though he built his career in Manhattan (and was born in Michigan).

        Not actually sure if there was a case of two presidential nominees being born in the same county and then building their careers/living in different places by election time.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Manhatlibertarian August 8, 2017 at 4:10 pm

          1944 was the last time until 2016 that both major party candidates came from New York. Despite being Gov of NY, Dewey was strong only in the MidWest in 1944 and did poorly in the NE, South and West against FDR.

      • Manhatlibertarian August 8, 2017 at 4:50 pm

        Well but middle class Queens is the “land of Fran Drescher” and big name politicians tend to leave it when they grow up. Trump moved to Manhattan and Andrew Cuomo to Westchester. I can’t remember the last time NYC had a mayor who was a resident of Queens when elected mayor, despite it being the 2nd most populous borough. By the way KewGardens, Fran Drescher was born in – you guessed it Kew Gardens, Queens! She went to the same college I went to, Queens College,but not at the same time.

        • rdw72777 August 8, 2017 at 4:59 pm

          Because you didn’t add a disclaimer, I absolutely WILL blame you for Fran Drescher.

          • Manhatlibertarian August 8, 2017 at 5:26 pm

            Yes it is true, being from Queens,I am to blame for Fran Drescher and her voice. But don’t ask me how!

            • Izengabe August 8, 2017 at 5:44 pm

              Actually that’s not Fran Drescher’s real voice. Its a phony accent she puts on for laughs. This is her real voice:
              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DJ8B1ek_L0


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • kewgardens August 8, 2017 at 5:55 pm

              And Jerry Springer (former mayor of Cincinnati) also grew up in Kew Gardens! And he attended my elementary school — though long before I did.

        • Republican Michigander August 9, 2017 at 10:42 am

          I busted out laughing reading this – “middle class Queens is the “land of Fran Drescher””

          My grandmother was originally from Queens (Woodhaven) before moving to Lawn Guyland. She had a faint NY accent which was closest to a modern Lawn Guyland accent.

          She didn’t talk like Drescher, or Trump for that matter.


          MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Greyhound August 8, 2017 at 2:53 pm

    ARG Poll has Kasich up 12 on Trump in a NHGOP Primary:
    http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/pres20/

    Call me skeptical Trump has a 44% approval rating among NHGOP Primary voters though.


    R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

    • Manhatlibertarian August 8, 2017 at 3:08 pm

      Yeah Trump has been sinking in the polls, but Kasich, I don’t know if he can win. The more you get to know him, the less there is to love!

    • kewgardens August 8, 2017 at 3:13 pm

      New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts and (maybe) Ohio would be Kasich’s best states. Trump would probably beat him everywhere else.

      • jncca August 8, 2017 at 3:45 pm

        Utah?


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • rdw72777 August 8, 2017 at 3:58 pm

          And Idaho and probably Wyoming for similar reasons. In a contested (but not clown car) primary it would be interesting to see how Trump would fare in South Carolina. I really feel like that was the turning point in 2016 when he was able to do a clean sweep with only 1/3 of the vote…just so much attention and belief he could actually win just let him gain the news cycle permanently on an electoral basis (he already had it from an entertainment basis). Depending on the opposition he could conceivably lose but I don’t think the perfect opponent even bothers running and he gets a majority in SC.

          • jncca August 8, 2017 at 8:14 pm

            The WY GOP is very conservative and <25% Mormon. I don't know why Trump would lose there.

            In Idaho it might be close but I'd give the edge to Trump. The non-Mormon parts of the state are a great fit for him.


            24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • Wahoowa August 8, 2017 at 8:02 pm

      Don’t encourage him.


      CO-7

    • GoBigRedState August 8, 2017 at 10:05 pm

      John Kasich may be the only person that I would vote for Trump over in a Republican primary. My chances of voting for Kasich in a general election are probably lower than Trump’s too.


      45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

      • Greyhound August 9, 2017 at 3:11 am

        I admit to having irrational levels of hatred of the man, but its mostly because he fit my early-2015 idea of what a successful 2016 GOP candidate would be perfectly–Fiscally Populist Blue-collar Midwestern Governor. Then he went full John Weaver and did everything he possibly could to ensure that the GOP couldn’t pivot around Trump in 2016 with the likely intent of parading around as the “Voice of reason” when Trump failed in the GE.


        R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

    • Vosmyorka August 8, 2017 at 11:15 pm

      The real problem with this poll is that it’s conducted by ARG, which has a terrible reputation and has messed up a large number of races.

      NH was actually a fairly strong state for Trump; he was at 35% there when he only managed 33% in SC after several drop-outs and with momentum. It’s also one of several New England states with a reversed age pattern (Trump is stronger with younger voters, rather than weaker as is the case in most places). If Trump is actually down DOUBLE-DIGITS in New Hampshire, you can chalk some of it down to Kasich’s affiliation with the place, but he’s probably down at least single-digits in SC and nationally in that case.

      The real issue is that if he’s actually declined that far it won’t be a straight Trump v. Kasich race. Other challengers will be attracted when he is that weak.


      Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

  • Manhatlibertarian August 8, 2017 at 4:28 pm

    Well the Democratic Socialists of American had a record turnout for their Chicago convention last weekend and their membership has grown considerably to 25,000, fueled by “Bernie fever” and hatred of Trump. Not surprising they called for Medicare for all and more emphasis on labor organizing. They also are in favor the the BDS movement which aims at targeting Israel for its occupation of the West Bank. Despite wanting to attract more minorities, the party membership is about 80% non Hispanic white (compared to 61% for the US as a whole). So as with many left wing organizations, the power base is with activist non Hispanic whites. I think they are concerned more with pulling the Dem party to the left, building up labor unions, and focusing on issues of special concern to them than putting a lot of $ into running candidates under the Democratic Socialist line.

    http://theweek.com/articles/716817/inside-biggest-gathering-american-socialists-decades

    • Izengabe August 8, 2017 at 5:41 pm

      One would think that a bunch of socialist would want VA Hospitals for all rather than Medicaid for all but maybe that is more of a Judean People’s Front thing.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Manhatlibertarian August 8, 2017 at 6:11 pm

        I wonder if people who call for Medicare for all really understand how Medicare works. The payroll tax only finances basic hospitalization-Part A (although you are responsible for about the first $1100 of cost). Part B finances doctor fees and non hospital treatments and tests, and you may must pay about 25% of the Part B premium, while the Gov’t covers the rest out of general tax revenue. Even then Medicare part B only covers about 80% of what Medicare deems to be the appropriate amount; the rest you must pay (or get a private supplemental plan). Nor does Medicare cover prescription drug costs unless you pay to sign up for a Part D plan. Note also that the Part A coverage that you become eligible for at age 65 comes from payroll taxes you pay over many years; yet I’ve seen projections that at the current rate the Medicare part A Trustfund will not be able to pay full benefits in about 10 years. So while it is a trendy thing for those on the left to say, well why don’t we just have Medicare for all, it is not that simple; the cost of covering everyone’s medical costs is going to be a really, really huge government expenditure.

        • Octosteel August 8, 2017 at 8:19 pm

          I know this is a complicated question but does Medicaid work significantly differently?

          • Manhatlibertarian August 8, 2017 at 9:52 pm

            Medicaid is primarily a health care program for low income people. There is no Medicaid Trustfund and the program is funded out of Federal tax revenues and required state matching funds, which vary with the state. Under the Obama Administration states could apply to get “expanded” federal Medicaid funds for people up to 138% of the poverty level and eventually only have to pay a 10% match, a much lower rate for the states than had been the norm for Medicaid. Thirty one states have elected to participate in the Medicaid expansion to date; all states participate in “regular Medicaid”. I should also point out that a number of middle class people use Medicaid for elderly parents who have exhausted their savings for nursing home care. When that happens Medicaid starts paying the nursing home.

            If you tried “Medicaid for all” there would be a need for a really huge amount of federal tax monies to fund the program. Plus how would it work with Medicare and with state match? It would get complicated.

            • Indy1975a August 8, 2017 at 11:33 pm

              My guess is that any “Medicaid for all” program would (a) require people who are above the poverty level to “buy in” and possibly (b) federalize the program.


              Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • JJC August 8, 2017 at 4:52 pm

    Republicans are beginning to dominate both locally and state-wide in the once democratic-dominated Rust-Belt.

    Republicans control the state legislature in PA, MI, WI, IA, OH, and MN. This is important not only for redistricting but also because it will mean better local support and recruitment for elections across the board. Undoubtedly there are many explanations for this rightward trend, but the most glaring reasons are; manufacturing jobs taking a huge hit with NAFTA and other trade agreements, the dem party becoming more socially driven than economically driven, democratic support for open borders/increased immigration, and white voters voting for the GOP by ever-increasing margins.

    But mostly, it’s the manufacturing decline.

    An example;
    I was talking to a coworker of mine the other day who came from a rural town in PA. There used to be a Cannondale bike factory there for decades, which he briefly worked at after high school in the late 90’s. Shortly after he was hired, they had a manager/worker meeting, in which the company heads proudly congratulated the workers for the company’s stunning growth and expansion into new markets, and announced that several new factories would open in asia. This, the workers were told, would lead to greater opportunities for them going forward. Many of the workers there, particularly those who have worked there for decades, were not concerned about the company outsourcing, convinced that the factory that has been there their whole lives would always be there.

    When my coworker returned to his home town a couple of years ago, that factory was now an empty lot.

    Now multiply this situation thousands of times across the rust-belt. Trump said that the powers-that-be were ripping you off and sending your jobs overseas and that he was going to bring them back. He promised to renegotiate NAFTA. It’s not hard to see why voters flocked to him in droves.

    The key to turning these once dem leaning states into GOP strongholds is to make the party’s platform centered around increasing manufacturing.

    • Carolingian August 8, 2017 at 5:01 pm

      The Rust Belt was not Democratic-dominated, they’ve moved from D tilting to R tilting. What do you mean by changing the GOP platform. The government cant artificially increase manufacturing jobs against economic trends and automation.


      21, NC-4, Ex-R

      • MikeFL August 8, 2017 at 5:36 pm

        I mean I understand that the political rhetoric works, but forcing low skill manufacturing jobs back into America will lead to automation and higher prices, so it isn’t a real solution. The manufacturing workforce in the Rust Belt would be much better off in either vocational retraining programs or for certain degree programs at colleges, and it would be a much better use of federal and state funds.


        26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

        • rdw72777 August 8, 2017 at 5:43 pm

          There’s a secondary problem in that the populations in many Rust Belt and Midwest areas has been so decimated that doing job re-training there seems ineffective at best. There’s a huge long-term need for trade-workers in booming urban, suburb and exurb areas. But are we going to do the training in Erie PA and just hope people move to Pittsburgh or Philly after their training. I mean in Philly right now finding trade workers of any kind (carpenters, plumbers, electricians) costs you top dollar and there’s a backlog nearly year-round…and Philly isn’t Atlanta or Austin or any other fast growing place.

          A lot of the issue I have with putting job re-training into rural areas is the jobs aren’t there so why bother, people are going to have to move anyways to make use of the skill…might as well make the move part of the training effort. And training larger numbers of people in less rural areas at once is also just more economical.

          • roguemapper August 8, 2017 at 5:53 pm

            Any comprehensive retraining program would presumably be modeled after the Trade Adjustment Assistance program and that includes provisions to cover workers moving to a new area for a job. In short, this is an issue that’s easily dealt with. A much tougher problem in my view is the high level of drug addiction in these rural Rust Belt counties which is now higher in many areas than it is in urban centers like Chicago, NY, and LA.


            Dem NC-11

            • rdw72777 August 9, 2017 at 12:02 am

              It’s not really that easily dealt with. That programs isn’t that highly used and isn’t exactly thought of as very successful.

              • roguemapper August 9, 2017 at 12:36 am

                It’s very restricted. By definition a comprehensive retraining program would be on a much greater scale. The point though is that it’s not difficult to create incentives and subsidies for people to relocate assuming that you put any kind of program in place. In fact, there’s every reason to think that a lot of people would be perfectly willing to move if they had a job to move to because the level of domestic migration dropped off drastically with the 07-08 recession and still hasn’t entirely rebounded to pre-07 levels. By historical standards, there should be a backlog of millions of Americans willing to move for jobs if there were jobs for them to move to.


                Dem NC-11

                • Son_of_the_South August 9, 2017 at 12:48 am

                  Oh, there’s jobs available, at least in a lot of places. There just might not be a lot of desirable jobs. For instance, despite the relatively high unemployment here in the Memphis area, there is one job that always has openings: night shift at the airport. Pretty much anyone can pick up work for FedEx loading and unloading planes at night. The wages are actually pretty good for manual labor – much better than, say, landscaping. The problem is that a) it’s hard and b) people don’t want to work nights. The same applies to long-haul trucking. At least for now, it’s relatively easy and remunerative to get a job as a long-haul trucker. It’s just that a lot of people don’t want to go through the hassle of getting a commercial license or be away from home for long stretches.


                  24, R, TN-09
                  Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • rdw72777 August 8, 2017 at 5:04 pm

      But eventually you’ll have to deliver on the manufacturing jobs…people aren’t going to wait 30 years for these jobs to come back. And there’s really no short-term solution that would have impact of any magnitude that would work anyways.

      • californianintexas August 8, 2017 at 9:57 pm

        I remember some on SSP saying that if Obama’s “new New Deal” put millions of workers displaced by the Great Recession back to work, they would vote Dem for a long time to come. We saw what happened in the aftermath.

        And a cursory look at MI, OH, PA, and WI shows me that those states have had R majorities more often than D, though I do want to take a closer look later.


        34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

        • roguemapper August 8, 2017 at 10:31 pm

          You can see maps and timelines of legislative control going back to 1978 here: http://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/partisan-composition.aspx


          Dem NC-11

          • Son_of_the_South August 8, 2017 at 11:33 pm

            One thing about the Midwest that does seem to have shifted is that Minnesota can actually have a fully Republican-controlled legislature. It seems like this really couldn’t ever happen in the past, atlas after the ’76 election. This is likely mostly due to Democratic self-packing, but still it’s a notable change.


            24, R, TN-09
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • OGGoldy August 9, 2017 at 7:22 am

              I mean, Republicans controlled the legislature in 2011-2012 too,and were promptly voted out en masse that year. The numbers were more lopsidedly GOP then than they are. Now, where Republicans hold a razor’s edge 34-33 majority. Republicans have actually been pretty good at holding the MN House in recent history. It’s the Senate that had eluded them. But Minnesota has a very long and storied history of divided government. Redistricting has been done by the courts since the 60s because every single decade there has been divided control of government during the redistricting biannum. This isn’t some massive trend towards the GOP in Minnesota because of 2016. Remember, Democrats are 18-1 in statewide elections in the last dozen or so years. Plus,, hold 5 of 8 congressional districts. I don’t see that as a party on the ropes.

          • californianintexas August 9, 2017 at 1:29 am

            Party Affiliations in the State Legislatures by Michael J. Dubin is a great resource for party numbers through 2006.


            34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • Indy1975a August 8, 2017 at 6:07 pm

      BTW, Rs have been dominating in the state legislature in most of these states for more than 20 years. Rs have held control of the state legislature of PA, OH, MI, and WI since 1994, with the lone exceptions in some of these states in the D wave years of 2006/2008. Rs have also mostly held control of the MN legislature since 1994, and IA has been around 50/50. This didn’t suddenly start in 2016 (or 2014) due to Trump. The decline of manufacturing (and the unions associated with them) was a big factor. But these shifts showed up long back, places like erstwhile heavily D SW PA were showing a trend to the Rs going back to 2000.

      What *did* shift in 2016 (and frankly started in 2014) were the votes of the secular white working class. This group voted for the Rs nationally in the 1980s in large part to the Ds image of being soft on crime, communism, and welfare; but as the Cold War ended and under Bill Clinton the Ds became tougher on crime and welfare, they shifted to the Ds. Furthermore, they saw the Rs as dominated by the rich and the religious right, both of which they disliked. Except for a small period of time after 9/11, this group stuck with the Ds, moving hard to them in the late 00s, and largely voting for Obama over Romney. Trump showed them a different vision than the establishment GWB-style Rs; populist, less openly religious and moralistic, and patriotic isolationism, and they ate it up.
      This is why so much of the rural Northeast (where Obama was strong) flipped heavily to Trump. But a word of warning, all the D statewide candidates held their strength in places like Scranton, so the downballot implications are unclear.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • Republican Michigander August 9, 2017 at 10:39 am

        MI:
        R’s had the state house since 1998 (tied in 1996, had it in 1994) until losing it in 2006 and regaining it in 2010. R’s had the state senate since 1984. That said, the maps were a bit different in 1994 and 1996. There were a lot of ticket splitting areas then. Even in 2002 and/or 2004, the D’s had state rep seats in the Eastern UP/Northern LP (due to NRA punishing the Republican on a hunting vote), Alpena district (considered strong D), a Clare/Gladwin seat, and one or two thumb seats. In the 1990’s, D’s were still winning some (now) strongly R places downticket, and R’s were winning some places (now) strongly D downticket. Lapeer County sometimes voted D for state rep. Farmington Hills elected Rocky Raczkowski, a rather strong conservative R, 3 times.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Vosmyorka August 8, 2017 at 11:18 pm

      The issue with this is that a lot of rural, agricultural areas (Politico did a piece on Iowa highlighting this problem, but it’s far more widespread than that) depend on exports to support their economy. When you make trade one of the key issues, you can’t have the people who profit most and the people who lose most from free trade in the same coalition. Experiencing the sort of decline we see 1984–>1988 in rural areas now — where Iowa became one of the most Democratic states in the country and Kansas came to within a few points of the national average — would be much more painful for the party than losing a few post-manufacturing voters. Including in many allegedly “Rust Belt” states.


      Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

  • Jon Henrik Gilhuus August 8, 2017 at 4:57 pm

    For some reason the search function does not work for me, neither on firefox nor explorer. Mr. Roguemapper, any suggestions as to why?


    The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
    - P.J. O'Rourke

  • roguemapper August 8, 2017 at 5:02 pm

    Do you mean the Search Comments function? It’s working fine for me both on this account and with my test account. There’s no reason why that should’ve changed in the past several weeks. What does it do when you try to search?


    Dem NC-11

    • Jon Henrik Gilhuus August 8, 2017 at 6:18 pm

      I don’t think it’s ever worked for me to be honest and I have tried on several PCs. The arrow turns into a spinning circle and stays that way indeterminably so I guess it is “working” in the sense that it is trying to retreive information, it just never finds anything.


      The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
      - P.J. O'Rourke

      • shamlet August 8, 2017 at 6:22 pm

        It takes a very long time. There’s a lot of stuff to search! Try leaving it for 3-5 minutes (open up a new tab) and see if it eventually works.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • roguemapper August 8, 2017 at 6:48 pm

        Hmm… I’m unsure what to tell you because right now it’s working for me about as fast as I’ve ever seen it work and I run searches very frequently. This past week especially I’ve run searches several dozen times a day as I’ve been investigating site performance issues. One thing that will certainly slow down the retrieval of search results is the “Number of items per page” setting. You can get to that in the dropdown Screen Options tab that should be in the upper right corner of the dashboard screen. I have it set to 20. If it’s not that then it’s almost surely something with your local system configuration that’s slowing down the search results. The search function has responded within 5 seconds for me in all the searches I’ve run since you asked me about it above.


        Dem NC-11

        • Jon Henrik Gilhuus August 9, 2017 at 1:59 am

          I followed shamlet’s advice and it worked, but it took ages. I have the number of items set to 20, but it’s still slow as molasses. Sad!


          The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
          - P.J. O'Rourke

  • Mayor Perk August 8, 2017 at 6:03 pm

    OH-16: Former Ohio State/NFL football player Anthony Gonzalez (R) mulling a Congressional run. He has reportedly met with the NRCC about his potential candidacy. State Rep./waitress Christina Hagan (R) and State Rep. Tom Patton (RINO) are already running.

    http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/anthony_gonzalez_former_ohio_s.html#incart_river_home


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • StatenIslandTest August 8, 2017 at 6:22 pm

    NJ-11: Assemblyman McKeon (D-West Orange) out, Mayor Kazmark (D-Woodland Park) in:

    https://www.insidernj.com/cd11-flashpoint-mckeon-wont-run-congress-2018/

    https://www.insidernj.com/kazmark-forms-exploratory-committee-toward-cd11-candidacy/

    McKeon is smart. Much more likely to get a Murphy appointment than win in a district that will be safe R if Trump is anywhere over 43%.

    Kazmark is a good candidate he has a good local organization and is pretty centrist but the fact that hes exploring means he is seriously assessing the political climate before jumping in.


    31, Jersey City

  • Left Coast Libertarian August 8, 2017 at 6:37 pm

    Yesterday you guys posted, “Even though the (California) party chairmanship is now settled…”

    Over? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No! It’s not over.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGvHjWxV0AANlv_.jpg:large
    http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-california-democratic-party-declines-1502229396-htmlstory.html

    • TheWizardOf144 August 8, 2017 at 6:58 pm

      Nice House reference.

    • prsteve11 August 8, 2017 at 7:50 pm

      Don’t mean to be pedantic but it was the Japanese that bombed Pearl Harbor 😀


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • rdelbov August 8, 2017 at 8:06 pm

        yes yes animal house reference. An old movie–I remember it well!!!

        • Left Coast Libertarian August 8, 2017 at 8:37 pm

          Well, two out of three ain’t bad.

          (For those who don’t get it I followed an “Animal House” reference with a Meat Loaf song title. Yes, that makes me old, but everyone should get an “Animal House” reference.)

          • shamlet August 8, 2017 at 8:41 pm

            You took the words right out of my mouth.


            R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • Boehnerwasright August 8, 2017 at 9:20 pm

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/895091395379245056

    Trump endorses Strange in the Alabama primary. Should make Strange a big favourite the way all candidates have invoked Trump.
    I have a feeling this would not have happened if Strange was not in danger. Especially as the WH said originally they would not endorse in this primary.

    • MosheM August 8, 2017 at 9:22 pm

      Who says it will filter through? Who says it will matter.

      We’ll know in a week.


      29, M, R, NY-10

      • Boehnerwasright August 8, 2017 at 9:26 pm

        As there is a runoff strange only has to make the top-two. After that he has enough time to make sure everyone knows about Trump’s endorsemant.

        • MosheM August 8, 2017 at 9:33 pm

          Good point.


          29, M, R, NY-10

  • HS August 8, 2017 at 11:14 pm

    http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/345657-the-senate-must-end-the-tyranny-of-the-minority-and-abolish-the
    This is the second time in a month that Trent Frank’s has written a column backing Trump on a hot button issue. I think he is gearing up for a Senate run.

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