Political Roundup for August 9th, 2017

About Last night, Democrat Phil Miller won IA-LD-28 by a 54% to 44% margin. Trump won seat 58% to 37%. In MO-LD-50 Sara Walsh (R) won by a narrower than expected 52% to 48% margin. In MO-SD-28 Republican State Rep. Sandy Crawford won.

In primaries, Marquette councilwoman Sara Cambensy (D) won the primary for MI-LD-109 with 37 percent of the vote. She will face Republican Rich Rossway in General Election. Tenisha Yancey (D) won the primary for the Safe D MI-LD-1, and Spartanburg councilman Rosalyn Henderson-Myers (D) won the primary for the Safe D SC-LD-31. Businessman Paul Rosino (R) prevailed in OK-SD-45, while retired cop Ross Ford (R) narrowly won in OK-LD-76 over the prior incumbent’s widow. Ford will face teacher Chris Vanlandingham (D) in the general.

President:

Kasich: An American Research Group poll has Gov. John Kasich leading President Trump in a hypothetical New Hampshire Republican presidential primary 52% to 40%.  Unfortunately ARG did not do a three way poll of a hypothetical primary in which John Kasich plays spoiler allowing Trump to win again with 40% of the vote.

Governor:

CO-Gov: State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) has found a novel way around Colorado’s restrictive campaign finance laws that limits donations to $1,150. Stapleton is holding off announcing his run for governor in order to raise unlimited cash for a super PAC-style group called Better Colorado Now. Stapleton’s situation highlights the problems with restrictive campaign finance laws that encourages the outsourcing the cost of running a political campaign to outside third party political groups.

FL-Gov: Despite serious questions that arose, a Florida grand jury has cleared Tallahassee Mayor and Democratic candidate for governor Andrew Gillum of criminal liability after an investigation into his use of a city-funded email program used to send private and political messages.

KS-Gov: Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) made it official and announced that he will run for Governor in 2018. Colyer is poised to takeover as Governor of Kansas when current Gov. Sam Brownback (R) finally gets confirmed to be ambassador at large for international religious freedom. Running for a full term as a sitting governor should give Colyer a leg up in the Republican primary where he could face a crowded field that includes Secretary of State Kris Kobach, Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer (who entered the race earlier this week), businessman Wink Hartman, former state senator Jim Barnett and entrepreneur Ed O’Malley

NY-Gov: Oh, Miranda! Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is taking the threat of a Cynthia Nixon primary challenge serious enough to offer to sit down with her and discuss education issues. Nixon meanwhile declined to rule out a bid for Governor during an appearance she made on the Today Show.

ME-Gov: Sen. Susan Collins (R) may want to do some more polling before deciding if she wants to run for Governor. According to a PPP poll of a potential GOP primary former LePage health commissioner Mary Mayhew would lead Collins in a hypothetical matchup, 44 percent to 33 percent. Collins would score just a mere 28% against a hypothetical “someone else”. We would advice taking this poll with a very big grain of salt as it is common practice to release polls like this to either motivate or demotivate a potential candidate from running.

TX-Gov: Texas Democrats still do not have a candidate for governor. No major Democrat has shown any interest in losing challenging Gov. Gregg Abbott (R) who has nearly $41 million in his campaign account and strong approval ratings. So far only former “International Mr. Leather” Jeffrey Payne (D) has announced his intentions to run.

VA-Gov: A new poll released by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University shows Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) with a slight 42% to 37% edge over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor’s race. Libertarian candidate Cliff Hyra gets 6% in this matchup while 13% are undecided.

WY-Gov: Former Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R) confirmed she will not run for Governor. Incumbent Gov. Matt Mead (R) is term limited and many people had thought Lummis would be a shoo-in to succeed him. Without Lummis running the field here seems to be wide open.

Senate:

AL-Sen: President Donald J. Trump (R) has endorsed appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) ahead for the upcoming special election. Assuming President Trump doesn’t start a nuclear war between now and August 15th this should help Sen. Strange bigly.

IN-Sen: ICYMI, fourth-term Rep. Todd Rokita (R) will join the primary for Sen. Joe Donnelly’s (D) Senate seat. We had full coverage of this yesterday.

MI-Sen: Kid Rock (R) has made it official! Robert Richie aka “Kid Rock” has left his two-decade affiliation with the Warner Music Group and signed on with Music City’s BBR Music record label. He is also contemplating a US Senate run.

NV-Sen: A Strategic National poll has  Sen. Dean Heller (R) leading perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian in a Republican primary by a 38% to 34% margin win 27% undecided. Of course this poll was taken before the Senate Leadership Fund PAC put any money into reminding Nevada voters about Tarkanian’s $17 million bankruptcy and other less than flattering business dealings.

VA-Sen: Nothing says you are a man of the people and a real Virginian more than flying out to the Hamptons and having a $10,800 a head fundraiser at the mansion summer home of New York Giants co-owner Jon Tisch, which is why Sen. Tim Kaine (D) plans to spend the last week in August on the South Fork of Long Island, NY raising some serious money.

WI-Sen: The NRSC has launched radio ads in the Wausau and La Crosse markets attacking Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over an opioid scandal in Wisconsin Veterans Administration Hospital that Sen. Baldwin tried to help sweep under the rug.

WV-Sen: Sen. Joe Manchin doesn’t “give a s–t” if his liberal voting record costs him re-election.

House:

KY-6: Politico Magazine looks at Democrats fetish for getting behind the candidacy of US veterans. The latest example of this in in KY-6 where long shot formerly unknown Air Force pilot Amy McGrath was able to raise over $200,000 in 36 hours thanks to a viral video of her talking about serving as a combat pilot. McGrath faces State Sen. Reggie Thomas (D) in the primary. Both Donald Trump and Mitt Romney won KY-6 by double digits and Rep. Andy Barr (R) cruised to an easy 22 point win in 2016.

MT-AL: Newly elected Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) will get his first Democrat challenger. Some dude attorney John Heenan (D) announced he will run for Congress.

NJ-11: After the DCCC’s top recruit Assemblyman John McKeon (D) announced that he would not run for Congress, Woodland Park Mayor Keith Kazmark (D) announced he is “officially exploring” a run for the seat held by Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R). Donald Trump won this district by 1 point in 2016 and Frelinghuysen cruised to an easy 20 point victory in a seat that his ancestors have represented in one capacity or another since 1720.

NY-19: A pro-Obamacare group has launched a new digital ad aimed at freshman Rep. John Faso (R). No word on how much they intend to spend on the hit job digital ad.

OH-16: Former Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez (R) recently met with the NRCC about a possible run for the seat Rep. Jim Renacci (R) is vacating to run for governor. 28 year old heir force state Rep.Christina Hagan (R) and State Rep. Tom Patton (RINO) are currently running for this seat.

TN-2: Financial advisor Brad Fullington (R) has become the third Republican to enter the open race for the safe R seat of retiring Rep. Jimmy Duncan (R). Fullington is not nearly as well known as  Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett and State Rep. Jimmy Matlock who are also seeking the GOP nomination.

WI-4: Milwaukee County Circuit Judge David Borowski (D) is considering challenging Rep. Gwen Moore (D) in a Democrat primary next year. Moore has not faced a serious challenge in years and easily defeated felon and (former state Senator) Gary George in her last two primary elections.

State, Local & Other:

Syracuse-Mayor: The September 12th Democrat primary for mayor of Syracuse has narrowed from 7 candidates to 3. Democrat organization endorsed City Councilor Joe Nicoletti, City Auditor Marty Masterpole and NY State Dept of Labor official and former Dean of Students at Syracuse University Juanita Perez Williams made the ballot while 4 others either dropped out, couldn’t get enough signatures or had enough of their nominating petition signatures invalidated by challenges to be knocked off the ballot (an art form in NY State). Syracuse has not elected a GOP mayor since 2001 and 55% of voters are Democrats, so the winner of the Democrat primary will be the favorite in November.

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99 Comments

  • rdelbov August 9, 2017 at 8:30 am

    I like Rokita-I think he would be a great GE candidate and a good senator.

    • edtorres04 August 9, 2017 at 8:37 am

      You prefer him to Messer? Rokita really ticked me off during redistricting.

      • rdelbov August 9, 2017 at 9:32 am

        of course he got drawn out of his district in 2011–so maybe he had a beef?

  • MosheM August 9, 2017 at 8:39 am

    NY SD-26:

    Sen. Squadron (D) resigns.

    http://pix11.com/2017/08/09/nys-senator-daniel-squadron-who-represents-nyc-neighborhoods-announces-resignation/


    29, M, R, NY-10

    • Izengabe August 9, 2017 at 8:55 am

      If you are not into petty corruption there is not much reason to be a minority member of the NYS Legislature. Squadron probably felt he deserves to be doing bigger things (he ran for Public Advocate in 2011) and his Senate seat was a dead end. Will his seat be filled via special election and candidates chosen by party bosses or is there time for primaries?


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • prsteve11 August 9, 2017 at 12:00 pm

      What’s the partisan balance of his seat?


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • MosheM August 9, 2017 at 12:28 pm

        85-12 Clinton.


        29, M, R, NY-10

        • StatenIslandTest August 9, 2017 at 3:29 pm

          Would lol if the IDC grabbed this!

          He is doing his constituents a disservice by resigning for no specific reason. My guess is he has his own scandal.


          31, Jersey City

          • Izengabe August 9, 2017 at 8:08 pm

            Squadron comes from a very well to do family, he went to the best schools. Being a powerless minority member of the NY state Senate in Albany is actually slumming it for him. I think he simply had enough of dealing with his corrupt colleagues and didnt see any opportunities to run for something bigger and better so he simply wanted out.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Midnight901 August 9, 2017 at 9:21 am

    I don’t know much about ARG personally, but Nate Silver considers them one of the worst pollsters in the business, so there’s that pinch of salt.

    • GerGOP August 9, 2017 at 9:25 am

      Didn’t Arg nail some of the primaries or something?

      • Lucas Black August 9, 2017 at 11:05 am

        For some reason, AAAARG seems to do better in NH than anywhere else. I’m not sure why anybody still considered Kasich a spoiler, btw. The only state he probably cost anybody was VA for Rubio and Rubio did the same thing to him in VT.

        • rdw72777 August 9, 2017 at 2:54 pm

          Maybe they’re good at modeling either white or rural electorates; or rural white electorates. I have no idea why that would be of course…

    • Izengabe August 9, 2017 at 10:03 am

      Does it matter? Its a freaking poll 2 and half years before an election


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • cer August 9, 2017 at 11:47 am

        Izengabe: “Does it matter? Its a freaking poll 2 and half years before an election.”

        Sort of stuff I have been saying around here as well. Way too early to hit the panic button over these extremely early polls.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • PiT August 9, 2017 at 1:35 pm

          Yeah, polls don’t matter at the moment. People are spending a lot of time fretting over limited snapshots pertaining to an event far into the future.

  • rdw72777 August 9, 2017 at 10:13 am

    I think Cuomo is more making fun of Cynthia Nixon by sitting down with her. The Zephyr Teachout of the Sex and the City girls is something I’d imagine his staff is having fun playing with.

    • Izengabe August 9, 2017 at 8:11 pm

      Is that the same staff that was laughing at the reality star from The Apprentice?


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Miles August 9, 2017 at 10:32 am

    Decision Desk HQ has a detailed analysis of Robeson County, NC 😉

    https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/north-carolinas-most-interesting-county/

    • MosheM August 9, 2017 at 10:39 am

      Awesome as usual!


      29, M, R, NY-10

      • Miles August 9, 2017 at 10:40 am

        Thanks!

        • MosheM August 9, 2017 at 11:00 am

          It’s actually amazing after me now actually reading through it….


          29, M, R, NY-10

          • aggou August 9, 2017 at 11:10 am

            Which aspect?

            • MosheM August 9, 2017 at 11:55 am

              The loads and loads of data and precise analysis.


              29, M, R, NY-10

    • davybaby August 9, 2017 at 12:16 pm

      Ben Bernanke grew up in Dillon, SC, an adjacent area that is very similar.

      • jncca August 9, 2017 at 3:22 pm

        Always been curious whether that town was big enough for a minyan or if he was even the only Jewish family.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • Miles August 9, 2017 at 10:38 am

    MA-03 Tsongas retiring. https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/895293003379744769

    • MosheM August 9, 2017 at 10:40 am

      One of the more anonymous members of congress.


      29, M, R, NY-10

      • rdelbov August 9, 2017 at 10:50 am

        She put in time for a Pension and likely in line for a sub-committee on Arm Services if Ds won the house. My goodness she could have had a little fiefdom or maybe not.

    • krazen1211 August 9, 2017 at 12:57 pm

      Tsongas performed pretty badly in her initial 2007 special election. Won by 6%. Just goes to show you how odd specials can be.

    • Merrimackman August 9, 2017 at 1:51 pm

      My childhood district. Consists of most of the Merrimack Valley of Massachusetts. Niki was popular in Lowell due mostly to her husband, former Senator Paul. However, GOP nearly took this seat in 2007 with farmer and USAF pilot Jim Ogonowski. Since then, it was redistricted and picked up Northern Worcester County’s Fitchburg and Gardner. Redistricting also ripped out its most conservative towns in Billerica and Tewksbury, which are now in Moulton’s district. Thus, it is even less competitive than it was back in 2007 when Ogonowski lost 53-47%.

      Pretty liberal district thanks to its cities (Lowell, Lawrence, Fitchburg), which have diversified and thus resisted the white working class shift to the right, seen in more rural areas in New England and some of the suburban areas here. The cities are winnable however with the right type of Republican (not Lawrence though).
      District also takes in the outer half of the Route 2 corridor with Liberal, inelastic towns like Acton, Concord, Harvard being in the district. As a result the district would be a tough get. Like most of eastern Mass, it also shifted “bigly” to Clinton. Though Baker comfortably won here in 2014, 52-43%.

      2008- Obama 59-39%
      2012- Obama 57-41%
      2016- Clinton 58-35%

      Two current State Senators also ran in 2007, James Eldridge (D-Acton) and Eileen Donoghue (D-Lowell). Its very possible that both may run again, though Donoghue is now 63. Another State Senator, Barbara L’Italien (D-Andover) lives about 1 mile outside the district.
      13 Democratic State Reps and two Republican State Reps (Harrington, Lyons) also live in the district. Lyons is very conservative, but would be an interesting candidate here.

      Lowell will want to keep its hold on the district, which is why Donoghue will likely be the lead Democrat if she wants it.


      R, RI-2

      • rdelbov August 9, 2017 at 2:11 pm

        Nifty little D draw on MA3–divides out GOP area will keeping the seat just out of reach of R hands.

      • andyroo312 August 9, 2017 at 2:14 pm

        L’Italien is the first to announce she’s exploring.


        MA-7

        • BostonPatriot August 9, 2017 at 6:30 pm

          Not a shock. She’s a pretty generic pol who seems to run for whatever office is open.

  • Republican Michigander August 9, 2017 at 10:51 am

    MI-01 – I was not surprised that someone with a “white” sounding name (Rossi) lost there , but I didn’t see Yancey’s strength. I should have looked at the campaign finance reports. Black Detroiters will vote for some white people. Peters and Duggan proved that. They don’t like voting for Grosse Pointers however. Rossi may not have lived in GP, but I met most voters thought she did. Safe D. If Brian Banks held the seat, that’s all that needs to be seat.

    MI-109 – We have a very outside chance at taking this with the likely most social liberal candidate winning. If Rossway wants to win, he’s going to have to work his butt off, get a big turnout for him in Luce, win swing Alger/Schoolcraft by a good margin, and run even up in outer Marquette County. It’s not impossible. Trump did it. NRA and RTL would probably have to get involved in this seat as well. The question is “will they?” I don’t use the term “likely” in my ratings, but it’s a significant D lean downticket until proven otherwise. That said, this seat is worth contesting.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • JJC August 9, 2017 at 1:11 pm

    Republicans really need to make a push for Minnesota’s 7th district next year. Since 2010 the district has shifted 20.47 points to the right, and the last two GOP’ers managed to pull over 45% of the vote, despite facing an incumbent of +20 years.

    2012: Collins(D)+25.57
    2014: Collins(D)+8.6
    2016: Collins(D)+5.1

    IMO Collin Peterson is part of a dying breed of conservative democrats. Nationally his party is lurching to the left while rural voters, which largely make up his district, are lurching towards the right. His district PVI is R+12 and was won by every GOP presidential nominee since Bush. Trump won the district with 62% of the vote, 7 points better than any recent Republican nominee.

    Republican challenger Dave Hughes, a political novice, pulled in 47% of the vote last year. And this was despite his public distancing from Trump on NAFTA and TPP (a very foolish position to announce IMO).

    This seat is definitely winnable next year.

    • gladstone August 9, 2017 at 1:21 pm

      I think it will end up like SC-05. Peterson’s time is clearly numbered there, but out-party midterms are a particularly bad time to try and exploit Presidential trends. Spratt got his best challenger in 2006 and crushed him due to the nature of the year, and then glided through 2008 to be ousted in 2010. Colin Peterson will lose that seat in the next good GOP year, or the next time there is a D president, but I don’t think you need to believe in a Trumpocalypse to think Hughes missed his shot last time. This is the sort of district that is chronically unhappy with whoever is in Washington, and any party solidarity message to local voters is going to sound hollow in a midterm for a Republican President with a Republican House and Senate. None of those three will have done anything for the district, whereas Peterson will have incumbency and anti-Trump energy.

    • JJC August 9, 2017 at 1:21 pm

      *Correction: Since 2012

    • OGGoldy August 9, 2017 at 1:32 pm

      NAFTA hurts people in a lot of places, but major agricultural areas are not one of them. And same with snowmobile manufacturers. Peterson’s district has lots sugar beets through the majority of the massive land area, and Arctic Cat and Polaris (within just a few miles of eachother in TRF and Roseau, in the same State Senate district). Being against NAFTA is akin to slapping an export tax on pretty much everything produced in the district. This isn’t Detroit or Scranton or Cleveland that have been decimated by trade.

      While I don’t disagree Republicans should contest the seat, I don’t see a Trump midterm as the time to do it. If Westrom couldn’t take Peterson down, it’s hard to imagine a lesser candidate doing so against a headwind. Peterson’s time is likely numbered, but I don’t think that number is 2018.

      • Ryan_in_SEPA August 9, 2017 at 4:17 pm

        I don’t think people get how the NAFTA game plays wildly differently from region to region in the Lutheran Triangle. Railing against free trade probably works better in places where manufacturing previously existing, but does not work well in areas that have always been agricultural hubs and still have some manufacturing. Railing against NAFTA probably helps in Newton Iowa for example, but does not help right down the road in Pella Iowa.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • RogueBeaver August 9, 2017 at 1:34 pm

    VA-Q: 44/38 Northam. https://twitter.com/samstein/status/895337116250415104


    QC/Blue Tory/M

  • krazen1211 August 9, 2017 at 1:34 pm

    Reducing immigration is relatively popular….which is why the moron Jeff Flake wing won’t do it.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2017/08/09/poll-near-majority-americans-supports-trump-backed-gop-bill-reduce-legal-immigration-next-decade/

    • JJC August 9, 2017 at 2:21 pm

      Even a plurality of Hispanics support cutting down legal immigration. And many provisions in it like the point-based system and english requirement are very popular.

      The legislation gets a wide swath of democratic support (almost a third), is extremely popular among the republican base, and probably is one of the few things that can get bipartisan support in congress. It can also be used as a wedge/hard vote issue for many democrats up for re-election in Republican states.

      So…yeah, naturally the Republican leadership will bungle it up somehow. Probably when the media criticism gets too tough for them.

      • Greyhound August 9, 2017 at 3:35 pm

        I mean, it doesn’t have a chance in hell of passing, because the Democrats will block vote against it and there are enough open-borders Republicans to deny a majority in either chamber.


        R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

        • PiT August 9, 2017 at 6:19 pm

          Between pro-corporation politicians in both parties and the loud open-borders fundamentalists on the Dem side, restricting legal immigration will never poll as well as it ought to.

    • rdw72777 August 9, 2017 at 2:51 pm

      Universal background checks for all gun purchases polls well, removing corporate money from elections polls well…yada yada yada. Something polling at 44% is nowhere close to these 2 (and numerous other) poll questions.

      • Boehnerwasright August 9, 2017 at 3:24 pm

        Issue polling is often useless or even activly missleading. Best example as you said is universal background checks for gun purchases where you often have 60-70% of respondents in favor.But politically it is a bad idea to push for a bill like that as you have a lot of single-issue voters and money on the opponents side, while most proponents don’t vote for dems because of background checks.

        Most polls also find a majority of people thinking we should do more against climate change, but concrete proposals to reduce emissions poll way worse.

        I’m quite certain that less people would approve of a concrete law reducing legal immigrations as the tradeoffs for reducing legal immigration would become clearer.

        • rdw72777 August 9, 2017 at 3:27 pm

          I agree 100% except I think the universal background check polls at times in the 80% but that just further reinforces your overall point.

        • krazen1211 August 9, 2017 at 4:56 pm

          Well, sure, there are intensity gap questions and whatnot when it comes to various gun polling and such….but that’s not whats going on here. To the extent that there might be an intensity gap on the Democrats current immigration policy, it favors us.

          What’s different here is that we have a handful of talking head moron Republicans running around the country hectoring our own voters, and that we have a handful of talking head moron Republicans bending over backwards to sell our our own voters to pass the Democrats immigration bill! Imagine if Joe Manchin was a staunch pro-lifer who wrote a book about the merits of being pro life and went after Democratic voters for being killers. See how well that would go over.

          Beyond that, well, outside of judges and regulations the GOP should probably try to find something that is broadly popular? Shrug.

          ‘Speak english’ reminds me of Joey Vento’s sign at Genos…heh.

          • JJC August 9, 2017 at 6:10 pm

            Yep.

            You also have Mitchie himself, claiming that it was Trump’s fault for failing to repeal Obamacare because he set ‘excessive expectations’.

            Seven years…

      • Conservative First August 9, 2017 at 4:14 pm

        The difference is that public discourse is almost 100% pro-immigration, and yet people still support cutting it. If there is a balanced discussion, support will go up.

  • Tekzilla August 9, 2017 at 1:35 pm

    Q-Poll of VA…

    Northam up 44-38-4

    TMac 51-35
    Trump 36-61


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • StatenIslandTest August 9, 2017 at 4:13 pm

      Shows Gillespie is a strong candidate in a bad environment.


      31, Jersey City

      • rdelbov August 9, 2017 at 5:43 pm

        Not to be ticky but this QQQ poll of Virginia has projected an electorate for the state is similar to 2008. 2016 had an VA electorate that +7D and this poll is showing an electorate that is +10D. In 2013 the electorate was +5D.

        Let me suggest that the result polls off in 2016 was they wrong about who was going to show up to vote. This polls in VA is different then an earlier poll that had the race tied because of who they polled. Will the electorate be like 2008 or 2013 in VA?

        • Manhatlibertarian August 9, 2017 at 7:52 pm

          On the one hand Dem voters have been more “enthused” as of late, but on the other hand minority vote turnout and young voter turnout is likely to be less in 2017 in Va than in 2016. So I don’t see how you would have a more Dem electorate in 2017 than 2016. Keep in mind this is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters, and Gillespie runs a little better than the last Q poll (which had him down by 8 rather than 6). So the race is competitive although I think if it were held today Northam would likely win by 2-3 points. But it is not today and Gillespie has a chance to narrow the gap. Let’s see how the campaigns go in the fall.

          • rdelbov August 9, 2017 at 9:15 pm

            Say What!!!! You talking to me!! Okay I had to go NY for a second there. A poll of registered voters three months before an election. Shouldn’t we screening folks by now? Less 50% of VA registered voters will vote in this Gov election. What a great catch by my NY friend.

            Let me jump ahead a step or two. Trump is still clearly not popular among voters in the DC area and yet here is a decent GOP candidate who separated himself from Trump. I think we are looking at a mini picture of 2018 here where Trump’s approval numbers are not impacting elections.

  • zbigreddogz August 9, 2017 at 2:09 pm

    Me this morning: “Who the f**k is Cynthia Nixon?”

    Google tells me she’s a Sex in the City actress? Really? Wow.

    And I thought Kid Rock was a bad sign of the times…

    • Izengabe August 9, 2017 at 8:17 pm

      The next governor of the great state of New York:
      https://youtu.be/7Cf0lXN8bZI?t=3s


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • zbigreddogz August 10, 2017 at 4:09 pm

        Good times! Although admittedly not much different than Kid Rock’s “Balls in your Mouth.”

        https://youtu.be/-WMFCKBSXrw

        • Republican Michigander August 11, 2017 at 10:51 am

          Thanks for posting that. /sarcasm.

          That song is running through my head today.


          MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Tekzilla August 9, 2017 at 2:32 pm

    @realdonaldtrump

    Senator Mitch McConnell said I had “excessive expectations,” but I don’t think so. After 7 years of hearing Repeal & Replace, why not done?

    👀👀


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • Boehnerwasright August 9, 2017 at 3:26 pm

      Not very productive for Trump to say that, especially as he has promised repeal+replace a lot in his campaign and promised a great plan. Nobody in the GOP looks good in the repeal debacle.

      • JJC August 9, 2017 at 4:01 pm

        It’s also not a good idea for Mitch to blame Trump – the least blamable person in this debacle – for congress failing to pass repeal/replace.

      • Midnight901 August 9, 2017 at 6:02 pm

        Trump is sitting there waiting to sign whatever they put on his desk — they just can’t manage to put anything on his desk. It’s not really his fault that Republican Senators lied about their intentions for years until they actually had the means to act on those intentions and people expected them to do so.

        • Boehnerwasright August 9, 2017 at 6:21 pm

          But what did he do to get the bill to his desks after running on repeal+replace the whole campaign? Obama gave interviews on the ACA, held townhalls, activated his campaign apparatus, even spoke in front of house republicans trying to convince them and generally was involved and informed on this topic.

          I mean for all the blame Ryan gets, he gave interviews and speeches, his allied SuperPAC ran ads and although the AHCA was unpopular he pushed the bill through even after the first failure.

          Just what did Trump do to help pass repeal+replace? He never published his promised great healthcare plan, he rarely tweeted about the law, gave next to no interviews on this topic and held no campaign rallies in states with vulnerable dems. His biggest ”contribution” was to call the AHCA a mean bill, giving dems a great soundbite.

          McConnel and senate republicans deserve the most blame, but I don’t see how Trump deserves less blame then Ryan.

          • krazen1211 August 9, 2017 at 6:38 pm

            We have problems in the Senate mostly due to the disastrous 2012 election in which Ryan was on the national ticket. 2012 wasn’t really his fault, much, but it is something.

            • MikeFL August 9, 2017 at 6:44 pm

              Ryan had nothing to do with Akin and Mourdock blowing their Senate elections though.


              26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

              • krazen1211 August 9, 2017 at 7:45 pm

                I agree, Ryan is only culpable to the extent that he blew the national race (not much). As it stands, I think at least one of Akin/Mourdock would have won if they were carried by the top of the ticket by 20 like Trump won, rather than the 10 points that Romney won IN/MO by.

                Replay the 2012 Senate matchups in the 2016 world and I think MT/ND/OH all go to the GOP.

                But if Romney/Ryan had won we would not be talking about Senate seats, and our voters would not have gone in a different direction.

                • MikeFL August 9, 2017 at 10:50 pm

                  Akin lost by double digits he was doomed. Murdock might have pulled out Indiana, but the only one out of the other 3 I could see would be Heitkamp losing. Dems still won MT Gov last year, and Mandel isn’t the best candidate.


                  26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

          • Indy1975a August 9, 2017 at 6:42 pm

            McConnell deserves less blame than you think, he was handed a crap sandwich and tried to do what he could with it. He got the Senate within one vote of pushing forward a bill that a supermajority of the country didn’t like. Given that, and that so many senators had problems with the replacement, what McConnell did was pretty good.

            President Trump deserves a good share of the blame IMO. This bill had a 20% approval, and the biggest reason for that was Trump. He should have either campaigned hard for the bill and tried to change the mind of the people in the country; or his administration should have introduced his own replacement. Instead he sent out tweet after tweet attacking congressional Rs, which was worse than useless.

            Also, the whole strategy was wrong. The Rs should have passed repeal and delay in the first two weeks and then spend the next year slowly developing a replacement. But instead of doing that, Trump spent the first couple weeks of his Presidency tweeting garbage and otherwise taking up the headlines.


            Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

            • Boehnerwasright August 9, 2017 at 7:03 pm

              Repeal+delay had a lot of problems and likely would have looked as bad in practice as repeal+replace.

              1) It polled bad.
              https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/01/06/only-1-in-5-americans-supports-republicans-repeal-and-delay-obamacare-strategy/
              http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-obamacare-poll-idUSKBN1512W8

              2) Trump himself tweeted he wanted repeal and replace at the same time. Hard for republicans to go against that.
              http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/trump-s-call-quick-obamacare-replacement-complicates-gop-efforts-n705371

              3) Insureres now are fleeing the exchanges because of the uncertainty about CSR and the future of obamacare. This might be even worse with repeal+delay, as congress has shown again and again that deadlines won’t force a deal. Would republicans be able to work on other priorities like tax reform while the exchanges are melting down?

              4) Repeal+delay would make sure that the 2018 election will be about healthcare, which seems like a bad idea considering how unpopular repubs are on this topic-

              • Indy1975a August 9, 2017 at 7:32 pm

                #3 could have been easily dealt with in repeal and delay; basically extend the CSR payments through the delay period. #4 will be an issue regardless what the Rs did. #2 again is an example for Trump being worse than useless during this entire process; he should have made sure that everyone was on the same page before tweeting his nonsense.

                Regarding #1, yes it polled bad, but the Rs could make the argument that polling would pickup once a good replacement was passed. Same with the CBO score; yes if the repeal actually happened 35 million would lose insurance, but far fewer would lose insurance once the repeal was passed.


                Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

                • Boehnerwasright August 9, 2017 at 8:00 pm

                  1) Dems also thought obamacare would get more popular, took only 7 years and 2 brutal election cycles,2016 and the threat of repeal to become true. I somehow doubt the republican bill would have a better future. I fail to see how you can hope for a good replacement passing congress after you saw how the last few months played out.

                  3) Fair point although i fear it might not pass congress as to many conservatives would not vote for the CSR after the house filed suit to stop them.

                  4) If congress had passed repeal+replace now they would have until 2018 to try and make the midterms about something else then healthcare like passing tax reform. A 2 year delay makes it more likely that the last big bill before the midterms will be an obamacare replacement bill.

                  • Indy1975a August 9, 2017 at 10:33 pm

                    On 1, there is a possibility that after you get something done with tax reform and infrastructure, there may be more support for the replacement. Also not coming up with the replacement behind closed doors and taking time with it and actually selling changes to the public may also result in a less unpopular bill. Some things would have to be changed or curtailed. But there were ways to get a political result better than what we got in the last few months, although it still will be a political liability.

                    Look there was no way that any repeal+replace bill was going to be this great political winner. Taking free stuff away never is. But there were ways to make it not as big of a political loser. And I might add, doing nothing on Obamacare is also not a political winner either.

                    On 4, I think health care would have been a big issue regardless of when they passed the replacement. As you brought up, Obamacare continued to be an albatross for the Ds even in 2014 and 2016. Some effects of AHCA/BCRA would be seen by 2018, and would be a political liability. I’d actually argue that passing the replacement in 2018 might actually be less of a liability than 2017 as fewer people would have lost coverage by the 2018 elections.


                    Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

  • JJC August 9, 2017 at 3:03 pm

    Marco Rubio makes no sense to me. He says he supports the idea of a merit-based immigration system, but then says he flat out rejects any cap on immigration whatsoever unless it’s by market demand:

    “I continue to support reform that prioritizes welcoming people to our country based on their skills, not just on whether they have a family member already living here.”

    “I don’t want to limit legal immigration. . . . Where I probably have a big difference of opinion with this bill is that it sets an arbitrary cap on the number of people that are able to come through with a green card. I don’t think that should be an arbitrary cap. That number should be driven by demand.”

    Okay, so… what’s the point of grading potential immigrants if they’re all going to be accepted anyway? Also, Marco, the market demand to replace Americans with cheap labor from low-skilled immigrants will never diminish. That’s why we need caps.

    According to the Morning Consult poll:
    -61% support shifting to a merit-based system
    -28% of dems support the bill
    -59% support capping the number of refugees admitted
    -48% (plurality) support cutting immigration in half, and that’s least popular provision.

    Rubio is making the rounds saying that this broadly popular bill has no chance in the senate. Unfortunately he’s probably right. McCain’s an automatic no because screwing over Trump is his last petty mission in life. Graham and Rubio are probably no, and McConnel is too weak to keep other Republicans in line, let alone flip vulnerable democrats. Hard to imagine that the GOP-controlled congress can’t pass a bill that’s very popular with the base and has massive crossover support. Yet here we are.

    • FiveAngels August 9, 2017 at 3:26 pm

      Did you expect Rubio and Republican establishment to drop their generation-old goal of swarming the West with illiterate Third World peasants just because Trump won one lousy election?

    • rdw72777 August 9, 2017 at 3:29 pm

      You left out Flake (I think), isn’t he a more certain “No” than McCain on this?

    • Boehnerwasright August 9, 2017 at 3:32 pm

      As i said before taking one trump-friendly(MC often produced the best numbers for Trump and the republicans besides Rassmussen) issue poll and saying this would be popular is a bad idea.
      If we follow this logic the republicans should also introduce an universal background check for gun purchases, pass an law overturning/limiting citizen united and tax the rich more.
      Every single of these proposals on average poll at 60%+ approval.

      • Indy1975a August 9, 2017 at 4:00 pm

        They should also include a “public option” in their replacement to Obamacare rather than any cuts. And one poll recently found that 70% of Americans supported Medicaid, so the replacement should expand it as well. \s

        Yup some half-baked issue poll is not going to be convincing as the final truth as a must pass bill. I don’t doubt that voters are fed up with the broken immigration system, including among Ds who are left-wing on economic issues. (It’s worth noting that some of them like Bernie Sanders and Sherrod Brown voted against GWB’s immigration bill)

        There are good things in the RAISE bill and other things that are not workable. But I do think there needs to be much stronger restrictions on guest workers. That’s just used for keeping wages down for American workers.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

        • JJC August 9, 2017 at 4:10 pm

          Both sides can slam issue polling all they want, but the fact is every time Republicans run on immigration control/reduction/closed borders they usually win bigly.

          It’s a winning electoral issue, whereas universal background checks is not. Why? Because immigration directly affects everyone’s life to an enormous degree, while background checks only affect some, and it’s not life altering.

          • Boehnerwasright August 9, 2017 at 4:21 pm

            Immigration directly affecting everyone seems like a real stretch. The people most against immigrants are often in party of the country where immigrants are rare.

          • Republican Michigander August 9, 2017 at 4:31 pm

            “”” whereas universal background checks is not. Why? “””

            Because we already have background checks with all gun dealers.


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • rdw72777 August 9, 2017 at 4:50 pm

          Depending on the end of the spectrum I don’t think limiting immigration will improve US wages.

          At the low end many of the jobs that illegal immigrants do are for below the legal minimum wage or jobs that simply should pay more than they do but never ever will. Companies will invest in almond harvesting robots before they’ll ever pay a large workforce of white citizens to do it for $20/hours. At the high end if we restrict foreign STEM majors then companies will just continue to offshore.

          There’s just really no way to legislate companies to employ Americans indirectly via immigration or tariffs and no one has the ba**s to legislate it directly via some other mechanism of punishing out-sourcers. I find the indirect channels more ridiculous because it assumes that the next logical step from low paid immigrant is to decent paid citizen when the corporate world is just going to go robots automation and tech tech tech.

    • roguemapper August 9, 2017 at 4:47 pm

      So I guess it’s once again up to me to defend a Republican Senator on a Republican website. Sad!

      The proposed immigration bill does two things with regard to employment-based visas: It implements a merit-based point system and it caps the number of legal immigrants accepted within that merit-based system at 140,000 annually. Rubio is quite obviously saying that he supports the merit-based grading system but does not support that 140,000 annual cap. In other words, he presumably supports the admission of any immigrants who get 30 points under the proposed merit-based system. This is hardly difficult to make sense of nor is it saying that immigrants will be accepted regardless of the merit-based grading system nor does it support “cheap labor from low-skilled immigrants” since the merit-based system obviously bars such immigrants from entry with an employment-based visa.


      Dem NC-11

      • rdw72777 August 9, 2017 at 4:54 pm

        People who want to limit immigration want to limit the numbers. Rubio of course doesn’t he just wants to limit who gets in. So he’s at odds with the majority who want immigration reform; in theory Rubio’s platform is unlimited immigration for “high-end” immigrants which doesn’t poll nearly as well as “if we limit immigrant to X you’ll get your old job back.”

        I get that you understand that but it’s easy to see why he’ll be at odds with a lot of people who want a more hardcore immigration reform.

        • Manhatlibertarian August 9, 2017 at 7:08 pm

          But the fact of the matter is that I doubt any legal immigration reform bill from the GOP is going to be able to get the 60 votes in the Senate needed to break a likely Dem filibuster. The Dems are really just not that interested in lowering legal immigration or changing the criteria for legal immigrants. So spending a lot of time debating the merits of this proposed legislation is kind of like debating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin; not relevant in the real world.

          • Greyhound August 9, 2017 at 7:46 pm

            Admittedly, it would be nice to force the 2018 redstate Dems to vote on this, but given that we’re going to see 5+ GOP Senate Defections on this regardless, its not like the Democrats are going to need every vote they can scrounge up.


            R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

            • Manhatlibertarian August 9, 2017 at 8:12 pm

              Yeah it is hard to come to 50 in the Senate on legal immigration reform when you have 4 or 5 GOP senators likely to vote no to begin with. The House passed a bill awhile ago cutting off funding for certain types of grants to sanctuary cities; only 7 GOP members were opposed but 7 Dems voted yes. I doubt it will get the 60 votes to break a likely Dem filibuster but it will put some Red State Dems up for re-election on the line more so than the legal immigration legislation because it involves illegal immigrants who are apprehended by law enforcement agencies and cities that refuse to co-operate with ICE on detainers for them.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 9, 2017 at 11:57 pm

          TBQF, unlimited immigration for high-skilled workers is still pretty limited. It’s not like there are that many high-skilled workers who want to permanently relocate to the US. The widely hated H-1B program goes to very few people who end up becoming Americans. It’s like 3% or something tiny. Countries with strong education systems tend not to have many people who want to move to America. In case 2016 didn’t prove the message hard enough, America is a pretty crummy place to live for most people.

          There just aren’t that many high-skilled immigrants who want to come here. And our immigration system lets most of them in (it’s just a total pain in the ass). The Rubio proposal probably lets in far far fewer immigrants than Rubio himself wants.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • Jon August 10, 2017 at 6:37 pm

            Those with H1Bs I’ve personally met want to become citizens; it’s just takes a long time for those from India. It’s much faster for them to get permission for their spouse to come over as a non working dependent (if the gal isn’t in the IT field herself) and have kids who will be American citizens by birth than becoming citizens themselves.


            45, M, MO-02

    • Izengabe August 9, 2017 at 8:24 pm

      Because understanding the basic principles of supply and demand has no place in the modern Republican Party. The new GOP position is that a heavy handed federal government can regulate the market forces of the labor markets better than the free markets can and folks like Marco Rubio who still believe in outdated notions about freedom need to get on the Trump Train.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 9, 2017 at 11:46 pm

      Honestly, I think this is why the Cotton-Purdue bill is kind of dumb. Even a common sense bill that kept the total # of legal immigrants (or even moved that number up a little) steady but replaced refugees and low-skilled immigrants with high-skilled immigrants would die against a Democratic filibuster.

      Ie, even the bill that Rubio wants would be DOA. So I don’t see why the GOP shouldn’t just propose that bill and excoriate Democrats vote it down.

      And for anyone who sees the Democrats voting for such a bill, can you see the Democrats signing on to any bill that drastically cut refugee admissions and funded a border wall?


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • jncca August 10, 2017 at 12:12 am

        I would support abolishing low-skilled and family-based immigration and building a wall through all areas that are not environmentally sensitive and doubling refugee admissions while otherwise moving to a complete points system but then again I’m an odd duck.

        The best way to crack down is still putting employers in prison. The GOP will never do that because they are too beholden to business.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 10, 2017 at 12:32 am

          Honestly, cracking down on employers is a harder sell because even though there’s a large portion of people who fear the impact of low-skilled immigration on wages, but it doesn’t engender the same kind of individual hostility. One can of course dislike immigration as an aggregate phenomenon, but really not want to see the illegal immigrant carpenter down the street deported. Republicans could also try to deport 11 million people, but that’s not happening either.

          Of course, this sympathy totally falls apart if an immigrant comes off as a welfare sponge. Which may not be the case in most states, but would be true if Democrats had their way. So there is this a very large constituency largely okay with the status quo. A lot of people were quite angered by Jeb Bush glorifying illegal immigration, but still fairly left-of-center on immigration.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • rdw72777 August 9, 2017 at 5:44 pm

    Philly DA, MA-Sen…Schilling is running quite the classy call-in show. I have total empathy for someone who has someone call in and let’s someone call Obama a “raghead” and then laments that conservatives are labeled racists…lol

    Other fun stuff “But he also framed the challenge Grossman is seeking like this: “Downtown Philadelphia, the inner city in Philadelphia, is one of the most violent places in the country.” Downtown is like literally the part of the city where the least amount of crime takes place. Though I’m not sure what Grossman standing by and letting Schilling make this statements is really supposed to help do in the first place…

    http://www.philly.com/philly/columnists/chris_brennan/schilling-and-gop-da-nominee-bash-soros-on-breitbart-radio-20170809.html

  • Manhatlibertarian August 9, 2017 at 6:53 pm

    Manhattan Dem Assemblyman Brian Kavanagh (AD74) has announced he wants resigning Dem State Senator Dan Squadron’s 26th SD seat. Since there will not be primaries, the county committees of the parties will choose the candidates for the November special election. Since Manhattan county committee members make up 60% of the county committee members of the Brooklyn-Manhattan State Senate District, Kavanagh is likely to get the Dem nod. This SD is heavily Dem, with low income neighborhoods like the Lower East Side and Chinatown in Manhattan and liberal affluent Brooklyn Heights and gentrifying Williamsburg in Brooklyn. The GOP nominee will have a snowball chance’s in Hell of winning this district IMO. With Squadron’s resignation, the NY State Senate balance is GOP Conference 32 (includes renegade Dem Felder), IDC Dem faction 8, Mainstream Dems 22, vacancy 1. Squadron was a Mainstream Dem; don’t know for sure which way Kavanagh will go, but I suspect he is more likely a Mainstream Dem. Since the State Senate is not likely to be in session through November, Squadron’s resignation has little practical effect on the narrow State Senate balance.

    http://gothamist.com/2017/08/09/squadron_albany_machine_politics.php

    • Izengabe August 9, 2017 at 8:27 pm

      Squadron is certainly a hypocrite to decry corruption in Albany and yet resigns in the most corrupt way possible.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

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