Political Roundup for August 10, 2017

As Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un (Juche Megalomania)  threatens to make Representative Hank Johnston’s (D) fear of Guam tipping over a reality, it is time for today’s roundup:

Presidential/National

Clinton-Emails:  A Federal judge has ordered the State Department to try harder to discover emails from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) regarding the infamous Benghazi attack.  The District Court ruled the State Department must search other employees emails to ensure the FOIA request at issue is fulfilled.

Manafort:  The FBI raided the home of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort (R/United Russia) on July 26.   The raid was tied to the ongoing probe of whether Manafort was part of a Russian conspiracy to influence the 2016 presidential election.

Biden:  As former Vice President Joe Biden (D) is roaming around trying to figure out what to do after serving in Washington for nearly 50 years, donors tied to former President Barack Obama (D) are not lining up behind Biden if he makes a 2020 run.  Some are stating the obvious that the Democrats need a fresh face and Biden has been in Washington longer than over half the US population has been alive!

Congress

AL-Sen:  Senator Luther Strange (R) is basking in the rousing Republican primary endorsement he received from President Donald Trump (R?) Tuesday.  The surprise endorsement of Strange over former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R-Religious Controversy) and Representative Mo Brooks (R) appears to be lifting his fortunes as Brooks is asking for Trump’s team to reconsider.

AZ-Sen:  Senator Jeff Flake (R-Self Loathing) got some bad news on Wednesday as Trump mega donor Robert Mercer dumped $300,000 into a group supporting challenger State Senator Kelli  Ward (R-Sharon Angle Clone).  Mercer’s support might be the beginning of a trend of wealthy Trump supporters trying to derail Flake, whose not made friends of anyone including yours truly.

MA-3:  In case you missed it, Representative Niki Tsongas (D) announced her retirement from Congress at the end of this term.  The Politico has a good writeup of the Great Mentioner with former Representative Marty Meehan’s wife, Ellen Meehan, being at the top of the list and being pushed by Tsongas.

PA-16:  Representative Lloyd Smucker (R) has another Democratic challenger in non-profit director Jess King (D-Bold Progressive).  King is running on a far-left platform for a R+5 seat in central Pennsylvania.  2016 candidate Christina Hartman is also running for the Democrats, but is taking a less progressive stance on some issues and has establishment support (for whatever its worth in this seat).

MI-13:  The House Ethics Committee extended its investigation into Representative John Conyers (D) over how he kept paying a staffer after placing her on leave.  You got to wonder if the Committee cannot make a decision on this if the Committee is trying to figure out how to handle a member well past his prime.

States

NY-SD-26:  26th Senate District State Senator Daniel Squadron (D-Bold Progressive) announced his resignation from the Prize Patrol effective Friday.  Squadron seems to be resigning due to the corruption found in the Prize Patrol and to take part in national efforts in 2018.   Squadron was delusional that he thought being a New York State Senator is about more than getting your fair share of the Prize Patrol.

North Carolina:  Decision Desk HQ has an interesting look at one of the most unusual counties in North Carolina, Robeson County.  The county has the unusual distinction of being for Obama twice then flipping to Trump plus McCain doing better than Romney.

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189 Comments

  • Mayor Perk August 10, 2017 at 9:37 am

    MD-Gov: Former Obama White House Policy Director Krishanti Vignarajah (D) announced her candidacy for governor yesterday. There’s already problems. To be eligible to run, you must be a registered MD voter for the past 5 years. Vignarajah registered to vote in DC in between 2010 and 2014. Her MD voter registration remained “active” according to her campaign. Problem being DC’s voter registration form includes a clause that the voter certifies they are not registered to vote anywhere else.

    http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Newly-Announced-Gubernatorial-Candidate-Voted-in-DC-Multiple-Times-While-Registered-in-Maryland/


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • segmentation_fault August 10, 2017 at 9:49 am

      That’s dumb. Federal law only says that you can’t vote in two places in the same election.


      core dumped

      • Mayor Perk August 10, 2017 at 9:54 am

        Not sure that it’s dumb. It encourages voters to cancel registrations elsewhere to further the goal of not voting two places in the same election.


        30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

        • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 10:06 am

          I’m not even sure what federal law would have to do with anything. Doesn’t seem like there’s anything illegal about either DC’s or Maryland’s respective laws here so if Vignarajah signed a form stating she wasn’t registered somewhere else that’s going to be hard to wiggle out of. Voting in another place altogether seems even less wiggle-able.

    • rdelbov August 10, 2017 at 10:26 am

      it has been registration law 101 since forever that you can’t register to vote in a state without canceling your old out of state or in an even state registration. I registered thousands of folks to vote in the early 1980s and you could not be registered in the state of TN unless you canceled your previous registration. Many states have residency requirements but I was not aware that Maryland or any state used voter registration status as a test for residency. IMO the state has the right to say to Florida residents-come vote here in November but in the summer or spring time vote in New York. It is one person one vote and yes states have hisotrically required voters to cancel your old registration to vote in your new state , city or county

  • Mayor Perk August 10, 2017 at 9:42 am

    MN-01: Some dude attorney Rich Wright (DFL) is in. He seems to be running as a bold progressive which probably isn’t the best fit here. But he spent 10 years in the Army Reserve and the Dems seem obsessed with Veterans recruits this cycle.

    http://www.postbulletin.com/news/politics/rochester-attorney-announces-congressional-bid/article_fcfc0c59-a477-539a-afbb-dcd990f80f6e.html


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • JJC August 10, 2017 at 11:27 am

      Not surprised Waltz is retiring, considering how much his district is trending rightward. He won re-election last year by a razor thin 0.7%

      This seat has been within our grasp for a long time. The district PVI is R+5 and has voted for the winning president in the last 5 elections, with margins closely mirroring the national numbers (except for Trump, who won the district by 15 points). Since 2012 the district has shifted 14.5 points towards the GOP. The district is very agricultural-based similar to MN-07, another prime pickup opportunity.

      I really hope the RNC invest heavily in MN next year. The GOP came within 1% of taking district’s 1 and 8 last year, and district 7 is well within our grasp too (having shifted rightward 20.5% since 2012). Of course, I do have concerns about holding MN-02.

      • GoBigRedState August 10, 2017 at 11:47 am

        Tim Walz isn’t merely retiring, he’s running for governor.


        45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

    • segmentation_fault August 10, 2017 at 4:06 pm

      The veteran that Dems are getting behind is Dan Feehan.


      core dumped

  • Mayor Perk August 10, 2017 at 9:46 am

    TX-Sen: Former Corpus Christi Mayor (for 37 days) Steve McQueen (R??) has announced he’s running against Ted Cruz. It’s unclear if he will run against Cruz in the GOP primary or as an Indy in the general election or what. His campaign platform includes reducing the House of Representatives to one Rep per 1 million people.

    http://www.caller.com/story/news/local/2017/08/09/exclusive-former-mayor-dan-mcqueen-announces-u-s-senate-bid/554184001/


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 10:00 am

      What would reducing the House to 1 rep per 1 million do actually come 2020 re-apportionment…I’m thinking a reduction of about 75 seats or so? What an odd platform plank to run on. You’d be adding 25+ seats every census…

      Also it reads Dan McQueen, not Steve, but I enjoyed the mental image anyways.

      • Mayor Perk August 10, 2017 at 10:02 am

        Hah, my bad. I think I’d prefer Steve though!


        30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

        • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 10:06 am

          Wouldn’t we all…

      • Jon August 10, 2017 at 6:19 pm

        In the case of Missouri, it would cause us to lose 2 seats by going from 8 to 6.

        I suspect they’d continue to draw MO-01 as effective a D vote sink as possible, but that’s now taking swing territory at the edges with needing slightly more than 1 Million people each.

        They’d probably attempt to crack KC into 2 districts though; so if the plan worked as intended it would be -1 R -1D; but if done poorly could result in as bad as -3R +1D.

        Meanwhile Texas is currently at 27.86 Million; so it would likely get 30 seats, but I suppose it’s possible it would get to 31 seats which would enable Texas to use the same map for Texas State Senate as they do for Congress.


        45, M, MO-02

  • Tekzilla August 10, 2017 at 10:25 am

    http://www.indystar.com/story/news/2017/08/10/silencing-vote-data-shows-unequal-barrier-indiana-polls/435450001/

    Interesting article on Indianapolis area early voting not exactly being equal.


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • krazen1211 August 10, 2017 at 1:05 pm

      This is a great argument against national popular vote and the ever amusing ‘Senate popular vote’ metric.

      • rdelbov August 10, 2017 at 2:02 pm

        One of the reasons I am against the NPV for President is that many states IMO are just too loose with election and registration laws. Several states are completely done by Vote by Mail-while others have same register and vote. While I sympathize with the idea that some voters have an easier time voting early in some GOP candidates then in Marion County lets be clear there are rural counties in Indiana where people might have to drive 20 miles to vote early!! Oh my goodness people are waiting 20 minutes in line in Indianapolis to vote- Oh the sacrifice.

        • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 2:07 pm

          I can’t wait to use the “whoa is me drive 20 mile to vote line” the next time voter ID rules that requires a 50 mile drive to a DOT/DMV comes up. Can’t freakin’ wait 🙂

  • rdelbov August 10, 2017 at 10:51 am

    Committees meeting today to set standards for legislative redraw in NC

    http://www.wsoctv.com/news/north-carolina/copy-of-legislators-meet-to-approve-standards-for-redistricting/587190495

    The deadline is 09/01/2017. The overall standards IMO will be pretty simple. The county pod system looks to be already set. No packing so AA populations for each seat from 2010 redraw will the target. They will try to avoid splitting precincts except to equalize population–and the GOP will be allowed to have roughly the same number of seats. The last standard will not be set but likely the GOP will keep almost the same number of seats.

    IMO in Wake and Mecklenburg counties-where they lost two house seats in last election -they will give up a marginal seat to turn one seat to the R side. Cumberland county will be interesting as they only have 1/4 house members now. Will they carve out a second seat? They lost one very narrowly in 2016 but they may concede it. I think they might end up giving up a state senate seat in Wake and Mecklenburg counties but stay tuned.

  • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 11:37 am

    I was playing around with 2020 re-apportionment today based on 2016 census estimates. If I run 2010-2016 growth rates out through 2020 I end up with California’s 55th district (note that would be +2 on their current 53) is actually ahead of Alabama’s 7th district. Heck even Montana’s 2nd district would have a higher priority over Alabama keeping it’s 7th. Alabama’s 7th is still slightly ahead of Minnesota’s 8th but it looks like both states lose a seat.

    The gap from 436 to 435 isn’t that close (FL’s 29th is 769,003 versus MT’s 2nd at 763,319) but seats 437-443 (CA, AL, MN, VA, OH, TX,NY) are all within 5,000 of each other. If we expand the House to be 440 seats come 2020 the apportionment possibilities become waaaayyy more fascinating.

    • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 11:50 am

      Interestingly seats 431-435 are IL, TX, CA, AZ and FL which is about as 50-50 as you could get from an electoral college point of view.

    • Jon August 10, 2017 at 6:28 pm

      Alabama’s been on borrowed time for a while; it was on the potential list of states that would lose it’s 7th seat going into the 2000 census; and at one point it was a consensus among those estimating census projections that it would lose it’s 7th district in 2010.


      45, M, MO-02

  • HS August 10, 2017 at 11:38 am

    I don’t know what the Mercer’s are thinking backing Kelli Ward. She is a joke at this point. They should be prodding a more serious candidate to challenge Flake. As I said before, Dewitt, Frank’s, Schweikert and others may be interested. And I believe Frank’s is testing the waters.

    • JJC August 10, 2017 at 12:07 pm

      Honest question. Why is Ward a joke candidate? Admittedly I don’t know too much about her other than the fact that she made a primary challenge to McCain (and got 39%, which against a long-term incumbent and former presidential candidate I think is pretty good).

      There’s not much information on her wikipedia page, but what’s there doesn’t seem to be very controversial and her positions seems to be standard conservatism mixed with a little libertarianism (she introduced a bill that would bar AZ from engaging in warrentless wiretaps for the NSA). I don’t necessarily agree with it entirely but I imagine a lot of people do and that either way no one has a strong opinion of it. In terms of abortion she claims she doesn’t want the state having any say in the matter, and that it should be a patient doctor choice. Again, not totally in line with my thinking but a pretty standard and non controversial position to have.

      Of course, the lack of noticeable accomplishments is a point against her, but I imagine that’s true for most state reps running for federal seats. And yes, I did hear about her saying that she thought McCain should step down, and that she hoped Ducey was considering her for appointment, which is a really dumb thing to say. But, eh, it doesn’t strike me as some huge disqualifier that could be used against her.

      For the record I’d much, much prefer Trent Frank or Dewitt to her. But she doesn’t seem like a bad choice either. Unless there’s something I don’t know about.

        • HS August 10, 2017 at 12:28 pm

          The big thing for me is what she said about McCain stepping down and then suggesting she be appointed. This makes her look horrible, political, and stupid. The Dems will destroy her.

        • JJC August 10, 2017 at 12:42 pm

          From the article:
          ————-
          As the meeting began, Ward tried to temper hopes that the meeting would result in an expose of the source of what many at the meeting said were chemicals purposely sprayed from aircraft, presumably by the U.S. government. Such chemtrails have been widely debunked by scientists and environmental officials, who say people are mistaking aircraft contrails for something sinister.
          Ward acknowledged the concerns.
          “The people who are concerned about this, I did describe you as relentless,” she told the audience. “That is not a bad thing to be; it’s not a good thing for me as an elected representative … to ignore what many people in my district are concerned about.”
          However, she added there may be little she can do as a state senator.
          “I’m not sure there’s anything that Arizona can do, but it’s good to get the information out,” she said.

          ————-

          I don’t see anything wrong with this whatsoever. She obviously doesn’t believe it but she’s treating people in her district who do with enough respect to at least hear their concerns. Why is that a bad thing?

          • Ryan_in_SEPA August 10, 2017 at 12:57 pm

            We have warned you previously about posting text wholesale due to copyright concerns. Please don’t do it again.

            The problem with giving these people the time of day is that it encourages everyone with crazy theories (and yes its acceptable to call the Chemtrails crowd crazy) to come forward and express their concerns.


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

            • JJC August 10, 2017 at 1:13 pm

              It doesn’t matter if you consider it crazy. It’s a concern that some, if not many, of her constituents have. It’s up to her to listen to these concerns and do with it what she will.

              There will never be anything wrong with listening to the voters concerns, even the crazy one’s.

              And who are we to decide what is an acceptable complaint to voice. I know many liberal congressman who would consider standard conservatism as ‘crazy’. Discouraging people from speaking up is not the role politicians should be taking. It just makes people feel unheard.

              • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 1:33 pm

                These people should feel unheard. Legitimizing every concern people have is not the role of govt…in particular concerns that are actually just thoughts that have no basis in anything factual or real.

                • JJC August 10, 2017 at 1:42 pm

                  People have a right to voice whatever concern they have. That’s the point of representative democracy.

                  • Son_of_the_South August 10, 2017 at 1:48 pm

                    Yeah, but she doesn’t have to go and specifically talk to them about it. If someone asks about it in an open forum, then whatever, but she specifically went to talk about this subject. If the Klan or the Nation of Islam invites you talk about their concerns about the Zionist Conspiracy, you don’t show up unless you’re pandering to the crazies.


                    24, R, TN-09
                    Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                    • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 2:37 pm

                      Exactly.

                      I’d also contrast Kell Ward chemtrails approach with how respected McCain look when during one of his Q&A’s in 2008 or 09 when someone in the crowd calling Obama an Arab (or Muslim, I forget exactly).

              • CTIronman August 10, 2017 at 1:49 pm

                Maybe the point is that someone who’s constituents are conspiracy theorists hiding out in the desert is inevitably gonna be a poor fit for moderates in Maricopa County

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 10, 2017 at 7:41 pm

                  But enough about John McCain’s tendency to see the KGB behind every bush.

                  Also when you think about it, right-wing conspiracy theories are probably more popular than actual policies. I bet more Republicans think Obama faked his birth certificate than support the Republican proposal to slash taxes for the top 1%.


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • andyroo312 August 10, 2017 at 1:29 pm

      Ward is O’Donnell/Angle levels of bad. Should she win the GOP nomination, the race instantly moves to Likely D. Why? Because at least a fifth of AZ Rs will either sit on their hands or bolt for the Democrat.


      MA-7

      • JJC August 10, 2017 at 1:38 pm

        Angle came extremely close to unseating the long-term democratic majority leader in a light blue state, in which said majority leader spent 100 million dollars in what became a war of attrition. It would have been a difficult win for anyone. No one was coming out of that race unscathed.

        • Son_of_the_South August 10, 2017 at 1:39 pm

          Losing by over five points is not extremely close.


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • JJC August 10, 2017 at 1:46 pm

            Context;

            Light-blue state.
            Longtime incumbent
            Senate majority leader
            $100 million warchest.

            I’d consider that close. I guess we’ll just have to disagree. For the record, I do not think Sue Lowden would have won either, or any Republican for that matter. Reid’s political machine was just too great.

            Honest question; when was the last time a majority leader lost re-election?

            • Son_of_the_South August 10, 2017 at 1:54 pm

              Context has nothing to do with how close something was. If a Republican only lost a US Senate race in New York by ten points, they would be overperforming impressively, but it still wouldn’t be close.

              To answer your question, then-Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D) lost his seat to current Sen. John Thune (R) in 2004.


              24, R, TN-09
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • TexasR August 10, 2017 at 2:12 pm

                Daschle was already Minority Leader in 2004. The last sitting Majority Leader to lose re-election was Ernest McFarland, who lost to Barry Goldwater in 1952. Interestingly enough, McFarland himself became Majority Leader because his predecessor, Scott Lucas, lost to Everett Dirksen in 1950.


                Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
                Be careful what you wish for

                • Son_of_the_South August 10, 2017 at 2:17 pm

                  Ah. right you are.


                  24, R, TN-09
                  Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 1:50 pm

            Right?

            40% in the primary, 45% in the GE and in a purple state in a year where Republicans won seats in purple states like PA, WI and IN (I’m being generous calling IN purple) while winning in blue states like MA and IL and Angle found a way to lose. Seriously not good…can’t believe anyone would defend her campaign.candidacy.

            • fzw August 10, 2017 at 1:58 pm

              let’s see:
              -she outraised Reid in fundraising
              -Reid consistently had -20 approvals
              -it was arguably the biggest GOP midterm since 1994 (I still think 2014 surpasses 2010 due to the amount of Republican wins in blue districts/states that year, but that’s besides the point)

              …Yet she still lost by 6. Not that Tarkanian or Lowden would’ve beat him either given how flawed they were. But Krolicki or Heller could very well have.

              Also, if anyone has any doubt that a Democrat can win a Senate race in Arizona, look no further than the tens of thousands of Trump voters who were fed up enough to vote for other Democrats for countywide office in Maricopa County last year. I don’t see why someone like Sinema wouldn’t be able to find a niche among those voters if she was facing a nutjob like Ward.


              Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
              R-leaning Indy.

              • JJC August 10, 2017 at 2:05 pm

                facing a nutjob like Ward.

                Why is she a nutjob?!

                She’s a mother of three with standard conservative views. Jesus.

                • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 2:23 pm

                  What does motherhood have to do with anything? Why even bring that up?

                  She can have all the standard views she wants. Acknowledging the tinfoil hats on chemtrails and then suggesting McCain bow out for her to take the seat suggest she’s just a bad politican regardless of what her views are.

                • fzw August 10, 2017 at 2:26 pm

                  Well, I don’t see how the fact that she’s a mother of three with standard conservative views makes her at all immune to being a nutjob.

                  But just look at her Facebook page and any interview she has given if you want a taste of the crazy. It’s actually pretty amusing if you have an hour or so to devote to it.


                  Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                  R-leaning Indy.

                  • JJC August 10, 2017 at 2:38 pm

                    List her crazy views.

                    • fzw August 10, 2017 at 2:46 pm

                      Being a nutjob != having crazy views (though I know she has some). People above have pointed out in sufficient detail how she is nutty. Most voters, I would assume, would think that the things she has done/said w/r/t McCain’s glioblastoma diagnosis and the chemtrails hearings would suggest she is a nut. You just chose to disregard what they were saying. I don’t have the time nor the desire to litigate this any further when I suspect doing so would be pretty pointless.


                      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                      R-leaning Indy.

                    • JJC August 10, 2017 at 2:59 pm

                      @FZW

                      So you can’t cite any crazy views. Good to know.

                    • fzw August 10, 2017 at 3:05 pm

                      So you refuse to acknowledge other people’s arguments and use straw men rebuttals. Good to know.

                      By all means, go ahead and nominate her!


                      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                      R-leaning Indy.

                    • andyroo312 August 10, 2017 at 3:20 pm

                      Ward’s McCain comments alone should be disqualifying.


                      MA-7

                    • JJC August 10, 2017 at 3:21 pm

                      This is getting long and frivolous so this will be my final reply. There have been two points made against her.

                      -I acknowledged the foolishness of asking McCain to step down and putting her name forward as replacement in my first comment. Dumb.
                      -I think the the whole chem trail meeting is a nothingburger – an anthill being made into a mountain. To suggest she’s a crazy tinfoil hatter is some serious mental gymnastics. Her views are standard run-of-the-mil conservative.

                      I will be supporting Trent, if he chooses to run. If not, then Dewitt. My only beef with her is her inexperience.

                      Anyway, I have a feeling this argument will be repeated ad nauseam during the primaries across multiple states.

      • Izengabe August 10, 2017 at 10:40 pm

        Comparing Ward to Angle is unfair to Angle.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • JJC August 10, 2017 at 12:15 pm

    Rasmussen – Trump rebounding: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug10

    Trump fell too an all-time low of 38% after the healthcare debacle. He’s now back up at 44%. This is the second poll to show Trump back in the mid 40’s this week (which I consider to be Trump’s stable electoral support).

    • Tekzilla August 10, 2017 at 1:07 pm

      Are you seriously citing Zogby?


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • cer August 10, 2017 at 1:13 pm

        Zogby is right up there with PPP when it comes to pollsters not to take seriously these days.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • Tekzilla August 10, 2017 at 1:22 pm

          Um, no. Zogby has a C- 538 rating and PPP has a B+ rating, so not really similar at all.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • cer August 10, 2017 at 8:08 pm

            I could care less what PPP gets, it’s a rather poor polling firm these days.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

        • JJC August 10, 2017 at 1:25 pm

          Well FiveThirtyEight gives Zogby a C-, with an R+0.8 skew.
          Rasmussen gets a C+ with an R+2 skew.

    • CTIronman August 10, 2017 at 4:32 pm

      Dunno if claiming McCain was arming ISIS & palling around with Alex Jones are now mainstream GOP positions; but maybe I’m just an Acela Corridor RINO

      • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 4:50 pm

        And just in case we need links:

        ““Yes, you know, I’ve had people who have told me that I should get an auto starter on my car, that I should never be starting my own car. I really hope things haven’t gotten that far out of control that I should be fearful for my life. But we are very cautious and I always have people around me who are providing security, which is great. It makes me feel very confident and comfortable whenever I go out to speak to the people.”

        http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2016/03/24/roberts-kelli-ward-courts-conspiracy-nut-alex-jones/82223726/

        And at 50 seconds:

        https://twitter.com/realalexjones/status/744300231399858176

        “John McCain is directly responsible for the rise of ISIS. I’m not mis-speaking, I’m telling the truth.”

        She also mentioned voter integrity needed to be looked into because she lost to McCain who was “unpopular”. And has called taxation theft. Plus her diagnosing of McCain from afar. Plus…oh does it even matter.

  • OGGoldy August 10, 2017 at 12:21 pm

    Washington Post has a poll of national Republicans. A majority would favor postponing the 2020 election if Trump says so.

    I’m at a loss for words, so I won’t insert my 2¢

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/10/in-a-new-poll-half-of-republicans-say-they-would-support-postponing-the-2020-election-if-trump-proposed-it/?utm_term=.ff412522450c

    • JJC August 10, 2017 at 12:28 pm

      Kind of like when PPP releases polls that show dems wanting to import refugees from the mythical city of Agrabah, or that republicans want to bomb it (asked during questions concerning ISIS). I’d imagine if this same question was asked of democrats about Obama postponing the 2016 elections we’d get similar thoughts.

      It’s tribalism – and as much as the right mocks the left for it, they aren’t immune to it either. No human is.

      Also, per PPP, wen you ask silly questions, you get silly answers.

    • sentinelrules August 10, 2017 at 12:50 pm

      A strong majority of Democrats would cancel the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump if it meant President Obama could serve another term, a new poll found.

      Data provided to The Hill by the conservative polling outlet WPA Research found that 67 percent of Democrats would take a third term for Obama over a potential Clinton administration.

      http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/286105-majority-of-democrats-want-third-term-for-obama

    • krazen1211 August 10, 2017 at 12:58 pm

      This is such flagrant bs.

      The pollster asks a bunch of questions about illegals voting and voter fraud. So they are basically priming the pump.

      Then they ask hypothetical with a fair premise (only American citizens should be allowed to vote).

      Basically they went fishing for an answer.

      • jncca August 10, 2017 at 1:24 pm

        Yeah Polling 101 says don’t do this if you want authentic results.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • Indy1975a August 10, 2017 at 1:25 pm

      This is the problem with issue polling, you can get any result you want if you twist the questions in the right way. That’s why I dismissed the immigration poll yesterday.
      As far as the postponing the 2020 election, I do know people who would love to give President Trump absolute power (and dissolve Congress/Supreme Court), and would love this idea. Authoritarians on the fringe do exist. But it is nowhere near half of Republicans.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • krazen1211 August 10, 2017 at 3:45 pm

        Eh, this isn’t an issue poll. It’s a poll designed to write a ‘look at the evil Republicans’ article.

        What would the issue even be here? The last president pointed out that our elections are decentralized and cannot be rigged by the federal government. Of course, those were the good old days.

        Beyond that, I don’t see why a general poll on immigration is less bad than, say, a general poll on abortion showing the country closely divided over the last 30 years, or a poll on gay marriages.

        This goes doubly so when the general thrust of the idea is backed up by voting results! There was an immigration backlash among R voters after the failed 2006 amnesty. VBK I think points out that Trump beat Rubio in the FL primary among voters who supported amnesty for illegals.

    • TennesseeMike August 10, 2017 at 4:24 pm

      The Washington Post?! Excuse me while I laugh. (10 minutes later) The Washington Post wants to paint Republicans as crazy, Trump worshiping, evil idiots. They went fishing and got want they wanted.
      Silly poll that proves only one thing, how much the Washington Post hates Republicans. And fears them too.


      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

    • Republican Michigander August 10, 2017 at 6:29 pm

      I think that poll is male bovine excrement like 90% of what comes out of the Washington Post.

      I have not heard ANY Republican in any circle I’m in even suggest something like that.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • JJC August 10, 2017 at 12:55 pm

    NEW HAMPSHIRE
    Gov. Chris Sununu (R) Job Approval:
    Approve 62%
    Disapprove 16%
    https://cola.unh.edu/survey-center/sununu-popular-nh-state-headed-right-direction-81017

    “DURHAM, NH – A majority of New Hampshire residents approve of the job Chris Sununu is doing as governor. Nearly three in four
    Granite Staters feel the state is headed in the right direcƟon, the highest percentage in a decade. A majority of New Hampshire
    residents conƟnue to see drug abuse as the most important problem facing the state”

    ———————-

    Drugs Most Important Problem Facing New Hampshire
    July 2014: 2%
    Aug 2017: 55%

    Some say the state might have become a drug-infested den 😉

    • CTIronman August 10, 2017 at 1:50 pm

      This was one win for the Heir Force

  • Tekzilla August 10, 2017 at 1:19 pm

    @ryanstruyk

    Generic 2018 congressional ballot in new @CNN poll (among registered voters) –>

    Democrats 51%
    Republicans 42%


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • jocallag August 10, 2017 at 1:27 pm

    The article favors vote centers which eliminate neighborhood precincts and has in some jurisdictions caused the elimination of election results by precinct. Also this shifts the voter to vote earlier which benefits front runners and incumbents since information on challengers and less known candidates does not reach voters until right before election day. Vote centers also make traditional grassroots politics almost impossible and favors large scale major party political machines. Elections officials like vote centers because it reduces the cost and the federal regulation that comes with neighborhood precincts. They also like them because they can cover up whatever mistakes and fraud that are going on in the neighborhood precincts.

  • Left Coast Libertarian August 10, 2017 at 1:35 pm

    i learned on Twitter today that if the FBI raids pre-dawn raid then the person is guilty.

    • Tekzilla August 10, 2017 at 1:52 pm

      Even I Lulzd at that. Although having a no knock is certainly pretty serious.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • krazen1211 August 10, 2017 at 1:51 pm

    Menendez trial. If he is out we can technically pass things with 49 votes.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2017/08/menendez_judge_waiting_til_trial_to_rule_on_motion.html

  • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 2:04 pm

    Why is FL-2 growing so much slower than the rest of North/NW Florida?

    I checked current population estimates and it has 45k fewer people than FL-1, 22k fewer than FL-3, 35k less than FL-5 and 40k less than FL-11 and those are the 4 districts it borders.

    Given the wikipedia description “The district consists of the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle along with much of the Big Bend region along the Emerald Coast. It straddles both the Eastern and Central time zones. It is anchored in Panama City and includes many of the suburbs of Tallahassee, the state capital.” I’d have thought it would be growing decently being the suburbs of Tallahassee and it being Florida in general and all that.

    • Son_of_the_South August 10, 2017 at 2:14 pm

      PCB is growing, but most of the rest of the district is rural areas that aren’t growing. There will likely be a lot of growth in the district down the line, though, because St. Joe (of The Villages fame) is building a new retirement city near PCB that will supposedly house 300,000 new residents in stages over the next 50 years.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 2:28 pm

        I guess i should be more clear; most of the counties in this area grew 10%+ (and in many cases 20% plus) from 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 but have turned negative from 2010-2016. Now admittedly some of these counties are small but still the district as a whole actually seems to show the same growth pattern/trend. The sudden stop in growth just doesn’t seem to have a reason like a hurricane (Katrina) or industry decimation (coal) or something else (superfund sites or chupacabra sightings or who knows).

        Honestly looking at these raw numbers makes me thing buying land in this district might be a wise investment over a very long time line.

        • rdelbov August 10, 2017 at 2:38 pm

          Bay County is growing but it has the beach within reach!!! The other rural counties or even coastal counties don’t have beaches or attractive physical features that attract residents to come and stay. Taylor county might vote heavily R but it is not an attractive place to move to.

  • sentinelrules August 10, 2017 at 2:32 pm

    Something might be cooking in the Bob Menendez trial next month.

    http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/national-govt–politics/exclusive-cancellation-melgen-sentencing-linked-menendez-trial/GxuwirdUmC3sj6vGnUQcRP/

    • WingNightAlone August 10, 2017 at 2:51 pm

      Senator Christie!


      25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

  • RogueBeaver August 10, 2017 at 2:59 pm

    NY-11: Grimm – egged on by Molinari – may seek Conservative line given strong GOP support for Donovan. http://www.silive.com/news/2017/08/with_gop_behind_donovan_grimm.html#incart_river_index


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • Manhatlibertarian August 10, 2017 at 3:32 pm

      While Donovan has generally supported conservative legislation, he was 1 of only 2 NY GOP members who refused to support the Repub replacement for Obamacare and 1 of only 7 Repubs nationwide who did not support legislation against sanctuary cities. But the reason Molinaro and Molinari are supporting Grimm over him has more to do with perceived personal slights than ideology. Even if Grimm got the Conservative Party line and ran against Donovan the GOP candidate, unless the Dems put up a good candidate IMO Donovan would still likely win. None of the Dem candidates who have announced for the seat so far are very impressive. And Grimm still has not publicly announced what his intentions are.

      • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 4:57 pm

        Would Donovan faced retribution had he voted for the repeal? 30% of Staten Island was on Medicaid in 2014 per pages 9-11 of the attached and I presume it is an even higher percentage today.

        https://www.health.ny.gov/health_care/medicaid/redesign/dsrip/pps_applications/docs/richmond_med_ctr_staten_island_hospital/3.8_richmond_cna.pdf

        • shamlet August 10, 2017 at 5:22 pm

          Probably not. Remember the northern 1/3 of Staten Island is heavily minority and quite poor, so that medicaid number is probably mostly baked in to the D baseline. South of the Staten Island Expressway I would imagine the Medicaid number is far, far lower.


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

          • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 5:31 pm

            I mean 40% of enrollees are white. We can’t assume they’re all Democrats.

            • shamlet August 10, 2017 at 5:32 pm

              40% of 30% is 12%.


              R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

              • King Hushpuppy August 10, 2017 at 7:06 pm

                Hey Shamlet, are you still planning an NC redraw? I’ve drawn a Senate map and would like to see what you’ve come up with.

                • shamlet August 11, 2017 at 2:07 pm

                  I didn’t, because I actually don’t know if the county groups they released are the real ones. I was operating under the assumption they were, in which case the map draws itself, but it seems like those are just the Common Cause county groups and they will tweak them however they see fit. If you want to post your map as a diary I’d be happy to offer my insights.


                  R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

    • HS August 10, 2017 at 5:44 pm

      I am worried about this. Grimm could grab enough to give a Democrat the victory. And the more likely Grimm is to get in, the more likely a good Dem will run.

      • StatenIslandTest August 10, 2017 at 6:35 pm

        Agreed. This seems like revenge from
        two geriatrics with Molinaro having supported former Dem congressman McMahon twice. Maybe McMahon wants back in? Not sure what Grimm gets out of that though.


        31, Jersey City

  • Manhatlibertarian August 10, 2017 at 3:08 pm

    Thursday New York Tidbits:

    Dem State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli refused to say if he would support Gov Cuomo in a Dem primary against actress Cynthia Nixon, who is considering challenging him. He would only say “It’s a secret ballot”. Cuomo and DiNapoli have been at odds over several issues.

    Dem New York City Councilman Ruben Wills who was forced to resign his seat after his corruption conviction, was sentenced to 2-6 years in prison and ordered to pay $33,000 in restitution. He took $30,000 in public matching funds that was supposed to be used for campaign purposes and instead used it for a shopping spree that included a designer $7,500 handbag. Nice to see taxpayer money used to finance politician’s campaigns used for “good purposes”.

    Pres Trump will return to Trump Tower for the first time since he became Pres for 3 days starting Sunday. Even though mid August is the summer doldrums in NYC, expect big demonstrations.

    Here is a new twist on the sudden resignation of Dem State Senator Dan Squadron and filling the vacancy it created in this uber Dem district. At first it appeared there would be no primary elections and the Manhattan and Brooklyn county committee members in the State Senate District would vote to choose the Dem replacement candidate (and virtually assured winner in November). But no! Instead Brooklyn Dem Boss Frank Seddio has announced the Dem replacement will be picked in a deal between him and Manhattan Dem Boss Keith Wright; how’s that for democracy in action!

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

  • GorrestFump August 10, 2017 at 3:22 pm

    4 DEMS who have told donors they will be running in 2020
    GILLIBRAND
    KLOBUCHAR
    BOOKER
    HARRIS

    https://twitter.com/dbernstein/status/895684253349945350

    • jncca August 10, 2017 at 4:00 pm

      Things can change though.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • prsteve11 August 10, 2017 at 4:12 pm

      Quite the list of losers.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 4:24 pm

        Actually I think only Booker has ever lost an election. But yes at least 3 of the 4 would lose the primary 🙂

        • Manhatlibertarian August 10, 2017 at 4:56 pm

          I see you are good at math!

          Gillibrand has not lost an election to the House and Senate, but being a resident of NY I am hard pressed to think of anything of note she has done, except maybe voting against more Trump Admin nominees than just about any other Dem senator. I seem to recall at one point in her career she was a shill for the tobacco industry, which might not go down so well with some bold progressives. But she hasn’t really made any enemies to date, so who knows.

          • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 5:06 pm

            Or rather…arithmetic. My high school math teacher was a stickler on that one.

            Gillibrand if nothing else certainly re-positioned herself from representing semi-rural upstate NY district from a centrist angle to serving the state at large from a more-left angle. The Tobacco stuff…at this point it’s kind of resolved issue. All the major states have settled and tobacco taxes probably fund like 10% of education funding in the Northeast USA. But yeah she was definitely a tobacco industry counsel at one point I think.

            If she becomes POTUS you can all blame John Sweeney’s frat-house crashing in the Spring of the 2006 campaign and the domestic violence reports that came out at the very end. Though in the end the GOP is probably better off getting Sweeney away from elected office as he seems to have some problems with drinking and ethics.

            • CTIronman August 10, 2017 at 5:09 pm

              It was the DV arrest in October 06 that doomed Sweeney. If he was a happy drunk he’d probably still be in Congress

              • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 5:22 pm

                Nah he was already toast. 2006 upstate swung hard left everywhere (Spitzer/Clinton romped and Dems flipped quite 3-4 upstate seats i think). By the way the police report was from Dec 2005 but didn’t become public until Oct 2006…making his running all the more perplexing. Someone had to know he was in a spiral with DV in Dec-2005 and then a frat party adventure in Apr-2016.

                He was doomed before that because he ran a terrible campaign and because there was just a steady drip drip against him of silly stuff against him. Like the frat party to being associated with shady dealers like Abramov/Stanford at a time when that type of stuff mattered to other less interesting stuff like the amount of money his wife got paid as fundraiser and the the silly stuff like going to Lake Placid with lobbyists in an event that was supposed to be about the Olympics.

                This was the district I grew up in originally so it was fascinating watching it be on the national radar for ridiculous reasons.

                • CTIronman August 10, 2017 at 5:27 pm

                  He lost 53-47 with a DV story dominating the last 2 weeks; & you think he was already toast? BTW my wife is from Rensselaer County & in the bluest year it’s hard for Team Red to lose down ballot around there

                  • CTIronman August 10, 2017 at 5:29 pm

                    IIRC there was also a car wreck with no citation he was involved in during his last term

                  • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 5:50 pm

                    Yes he was toast. He wasn’t a great Congressman and seemed to seek out trouble at every possible chance. Hillary and Spitzer won every county in the district. Literally everything that could sink him did sink him but without DV he’d have still lost though likely narrower.

                    Also I’m not sure where you draw the line on downballot but Rensselaer is not some dark red county down-ballot by any stretch and certainly wasn’t in the mid-2000’s. Gillibrand has won it in every race she’s run, Tonko wins the portion of Rensselaer that’s in his district regularly, as did Spitzer, Cuomo 2010, Schumer, etc.

                    • Manhatlibertarian August 10, 2017 at 6:06 pm

                      By the way, Gillibrand not only worked as a lawyer representing cigarette company Philip Morris in lawsuits, she also accepted campaign contributions from Philip Morris executives when she ran for the House. When she was in the House from upstate NY she was considered a “Blue Dog” Dem, which she certainly is not now, so she is somewhat of a political chameleon. She is considered close to Hillary Clinton, but also served as counsel for Andrew Cuomo when he was at HUD, so if Cuomo and Gillibrand both run for Pres, things could get interesting. She is a Catholic with some Irish ancestry but most of her ancestry is more of the Anglo -Saxon type – English, German, Scot and Austrian. So that may broaden her appeal ethnically. Her maiden last name is Rutnik; Gillibrand is an English last name as it is her husband’s who is from England.

                    • CTIronman August 10, 2017 at 6:38 pm

                      Well it elects Steve McLaughlin & flipped to Trump in ’16; so Rennco isn’t very liberal. As for KG, her 08 opponent was literally sleep inducing

                    • rdw72777 August 11, 2017 at 9:33 am

                      2 data points doesn’t support “BTW my wife is from Rensselaer County & in the bluest year it’s hard for Team Red to lose down ballot around there”. In fact in most blue years team red loses plenty in Rensselaer County.

        • edtorres04 August 10, 2017 at 6:01 pm

          Didn’t booker lose to James?

          • rdw72777 August 11, 2017 at 9:34 am

            Yup that’s the one.

    • district1 August 10, 2017 at 4:17 pm

      Klobuchar will go nowhere and Booker is toxic among the Bernie set. The other two have a chance though.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

      • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 4:27 pm

        Gillibrand should keep a solid chunk of the Hillary voters and Harris the Obama voters. If it stayed just these 4 it’d be 2008 primaries all over again. I’d be thrilled to have 0 candiates from IA/NH/SC/NV running as I’m rather loathing the impact of geography and early primaries on the final result.

        I think Klobuchar could go somewhere and don’t rate Gillibrand as much better setup to win except in money but I don’t see why Klobuchar couldn’t just grab the Bernie lovers…who knows though.

        • MikeFL August 10, 2017 at 5:01 pm

          Klobuchar could win Iowa and propel that to a real shot to the nomination. I’m not sure which out of the first four states Harris would be able to win honestly.


          26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

          • CTIronman August 10, 2017 at 5:07 pm

            Gillibrand went to Dartmouth & should temperamentally fit the NH electorate

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 10, 2017 at 7:17 pm

              Dartmouth is actually pretty culturally isolated from the rest of New Hampshire. The Upper Valley is a lot more tied to Vermont than it is to the rest of New Hampshire.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 5:08 pm

            South Carolina.

          • roguemapper August 10, 2017 at 5:16 pm

            Nevada


            Dem NC-11

            • Mike1965 August 10, 2017 at 6:23 pm

              Nevada unlikely to remain in the 1st 4. It has been a cluster F*** on both sides and the national committees are looking to replace it (Colorado?).

              BTW I agree with the above post, if Klobuchar wins Iowa she has a shot.


              Corker 2020

              • roguemapper August 10, 2017 at 6:43 pm

                Of the above quartet my meaningless early guess is that Kamala Harris would be favored in either Colorado or Arizona as well. If Nevada gets replaced it’s all but guaranteed to be one of those two states. For what it’s worth, I expect Kamala Harris would also easily win Super Tuesday with California (which is near-certain to go early in 2020) and the AA-dominated Southern primaries. In any case, the question was which early state Kamala Harris would be able to win. The answer is obviously South Carolina and whatever Western state is in the first four. Klobuchar and Gillibrand would probably win IA and NH. I personally don’t think Booker would fare well in a national D primary for several reasons.


                Dem NC-11

                • MikeFL August 10, 2017 at 7:39 pm

                  Maybe I’m just underestimating her because I don’t get the appeal other than on identity politics.


                  26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

                • Tekzilla August 10, 2017 at 7:51 pm

                  What happens if BOTH Harris and Booker run or if Harris, Booker AND Nina Turner run? Does that boost someone like Gillibrand if the South is fractured?


                  36/M/NY-01 (D)

                  • roguemapper August 10, 2017 at 8:11 pm

                    Well, the framing presupposes that the AA vote in particular would be fractured between the AA trio and I seriously doubt that would be true. There would be a year of campaign, debates, etc. One of them would almost surely consolidate a majority of the AA vote before Super Tuesday, if for no other reason than coming out of IA/NH with more momentum (it’s worth recalling yet again that in 1992 BJC lost the early four contests and won only a single state out of the seven that voted the week before Super Tuesday). The short answer is that I think that by Super Tuesday there should be 2-4 candidates who are clearly leading the field and the Super Tuesday states will either affirm the top two or narrow it down to two who will then battle it out through the rest of the primaries. That’s generally how it goes.

                    If the primary field was just the above 4 Senators (and it surely won’t be) then I suspect Klobuchar and Gillibrand would get little if any momentum out of winning IA and NH respectively because those states would very likely be penciled in for them early on (again, much like Harkin & Tsongas got no boost from IA/NH in 1992). An upset winner in either state would obviously get a huge boost.


                    Dem NC-11

                  • roguemapper August 10, 2017 at 9:02 pm

                    Hmm… My above answer may have been too rambling stream-of-consciousness. More briefly, yes, it surely boosts Gillibrand for the Southern AA vote to be fractured. But regardless of what happens on Super Tuesday there will almost surely be two candidates battling it out for a good while afterward. From the above list, either Harris or Booker would almost surely be one of them.


                    Dem NC-11

          • Tekzilla August 10, 2017 at 7:52 pm

            She’d have a great shot in SC and NV depending on other nominees.


            36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • HS August 10, 2017 at 5:50 pm

        Yes I have never understand why Klobuchar is so praised by the D’s on this website. She has no personality/charisma, represents an electorally unimportant state, and is both ugly and nerdy looking.

        • district1 August 10, 2017 at 5:59 pm

          I was agreeing with you until that last out-of-line and inappropriate comment.

          The fact is that unless Klobuchar has been hiding some deep reservoir of charisma and nerve she is not the real deal when it comes to being a national political figure.


          ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

        • Mike1965 August 10, 2017 at 6:30 pm

          Watch what states you are calling unimportant :).

          First off your ending comment is inappropriat. Second Klobuchar plays real well in the upper Midwest, would be very strong in Iowa and Wisconsin along with Minnesota. Probably a long shot to get the nomination but a definite shortlister for VP.


          Corker 2020

        • segmentation_fault August 10, 2017 at 6:36 pm

          Yeah she has no chance against a party with the great looks of people like Donald Trump and Ted Cruz


          core dumped

        • californianintexas August 10, 2017 at 6:51 pm

          While I agree that Klobuchar is a longshot for the nomination, I don’t understand why looks have to matter in presidential elections. (I am more than happy to call myself a geek.)

          And I don’t know much about the Midwest outside the basics, but considering how much attention was paid by presidential contenders in 2000 and 2004, and if a candidate from there could have similar appeal in Wisconsin and Michigan, Minnesota doesn’t seem all that electorally unimportant.


          34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

        • HS August 10, 2017 at 7:41 pm

          Well, you all have been suitably PC, so congratulations at that.

          In the real world, you need something to catch fire in the Presidential race. Bernie is also an ugly and nerdy looking old guy, but he has a personality, unlike her. And Trump can act ridiculous, but he is not ugly and he too has a personality.

          And Cruz didn’t win did he? And when I discussed him with Dems and Republicans, they frequently mentioned his looks. More than once I heard “there is just something about his face that makes me dislike him.”

          • fzw August 10, 2017 at 7:47 pm

            Trump is the ugliest President we’ve had since Johnson.


            Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
            R-leaning Indy.

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 10, 2017 at 8:05 pm

              Nixon was definitely not what I would call a sexy manhunk.

              I also assume you don’t mean Andrew Johnson, because that’s fighting words with my very strong opinions on late 19th century facial hair.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • fzw August 10, 2017 at 9:16 pm

                I was thinking since LBJ. The Presidents since then were hardly much to look at either, but Trump is clearly the most physically unhealthy person to occupy the White House since FDR. There’s a reason he wears Steve Harvey-sized suits. He’s obviously older than the others, but even factoring that in, he’d still only surpass Nixon in health and attractiveness, post-LBJ


                Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                R-leaning Indy.

          • segmentation_fault August 10, 2017 at 10:13 pm

            This is your idea of not ugly
            https://twitter.com/vicbergeriv/status/892767155904806912


            core dumped

        • Tekzilla August 10, 2017 at 7:42 pm

          This is such a disgusting and wrong comment I’m not even sure why I’m responding to it. Another thing to be thankful to Trump for, taking our political discourse to such a wonderful place.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • HS August 10, 2017 at 7:49 pm

            My god, the virtue signaling here is so overdone.

            I believe that this is a website about elections. Not about making everyone feel good about their body image or looks. You may not want to acknowledge that people do vote based on “bad” factors like looks, but they do.

            • krazen1211 August 10, 2017 at 8:18 pm

              I don’t even know if that’s fair. Klobuchar can probably just change glasses and hair.

              The real problem is that angry white women are going to want some shrill rage candidate who screams out nonsense, so probably not Klobuchar.

              • roguemapper August 10, 2017 at 9:11 pm

                Angry white men who want some shrill rage candidate who screams out nonsense would be even more of a problem for Klobuchar, not only in the primary but also in the general election where they embraced the Donald in 2016. The problem I see with Klobuchar is simply that she’s too boring to fire up anyone, white or black, male or female. I expect her to do slightly better than Scott Walker did on the GOP side in 2016, mainly because she doesn’t seem to have Walker’s tendency to sound utterly clueless.


                Dem NC-11

            • segmentation_fault August 10, 2017 at 10:22 pm

              Men are allowed to be bald or fat but women in politics are criticized on appearance unless they look like Tulsi Gabbard, it’s not right.


              core dumped

              • shamlet August 11, 2017 at 2:01 pm

                What’s right and what is are two different things. This discussion was a little crude but it is a valid point to acknowledge that women’s looks are still generally more of a factor than men’s in public appeal. I’m not sure how big a handicap that is for Klobuchar specifically – I agree with most others in that her far bigger problem is the lack of anything particularly exciting about her personality-wise (or for that matter, an obvious primary constituency that she could build on.)


                R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

          • californianintexas August 11, 2017 at 1:55 pm

            It’s really sad. Things that would have gotten me in trouble in school (which for me was in ruby-red Sun Belt suburbs) and at home (with conservative parents) are now practiced shamelessly, and by both sides. (I don’t like the name-calling on DKE either.)

            All right. I’m done speaking my mind for now.


            34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

        • Republican Michigander August 10, 2017 at 7:49 pm

          Ugly candidates win all the time. I say that as someone who wouldn’t recognize Klobuchar if I saw a picture so I have no idea what she looks like. I think she’s praised because we have Minnesota folks on here that like her. Beyond that, there’s a subset of people, especially in the Upper Midwest who like candidates that simply shut up and get to work. Much of the Midwest doesn’t like flash for the same reason it doesn’t like consultant regurgitated talking points. It sets off the BS meter.


          MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

          • HS August 10, 2017 at 7:53 pm

            Not for President since WWII (And the advent of TV). It’s not impossible, see Nixon, but it is not likely. And Nixon did lose to JFK based on his looks, didn’t he?

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 10, 2017 at 7:54 pm

          Bernie’s uh, unconventional “fashion” probably helped his campaign. It made him look more authentic, especially when placed next to Clinton $50k suits.

          That being said, I do agree with you that looks are very important. That being said, Klobuchar is hardly ugly. Hardly.

          Almost 50% of American women are obese. Not overweight – outright obese. As a result, the average person in this country is really not good-looking at all.

          There are very few female politicians or CEOs or media figures or celebrities who are genuinely ugly (as in at least below-average). I can name a few, but not many. Which should be a testament to how crucial looks are for women in the public sphere (they matter for men too of course, but considerably less).

          Being less conventionally attractive than other people in Hollywood or wherever doesn’t actually make someone ugly. A scrawny football player isn’t actually scrawny.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • fzw August 10, 2017 at 5:11 pm

      This would be a perfect primary field for someone like Sherrod Brown to sneak through in. Running against a field where the female and minority vote is splintered would lead to him having a good chance of sweeping the first few contests.


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
      R-leaning Indy.

      • w920us August 10, 2017 at 5:13 pm

        But wouldn’t the Democratic Party implode if a straight white male snuck through? Isn’t that in the bylaws or something?


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

        • fzw August 10, 2017 at 5:15 pm

          Last time I checked, they’ve had at least one straight white male on every national ticket and they seem to love straight white males if they’re veterans. Bernie Sanders managed to get 42% of the primary vote nationwide despite all of Hillary’s advantages. In a word, no.


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

          • w920us August 10, 2017 at 5:23 pm

            Well I’m talking about the top spot and Sanders is a Socialist, so that’s like a Democratic Party cherished identity group.

            And I was being partially snarky. 😜


            R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
            #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • jncca August 10, 2017 at 6:27 pm

        You can’t sneak through in a proportional primary…


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • fzw August 10, 2017 at 6:46 pm

          Sorry I wasn’t more clear. I meant I could see Brown winning the first few contests with 1/3 of the vote and becoming the overwhelming favorite for the nomination. He’d definitely get a huge boost

          If I was Trump (Pence), Brown is the one I’d fear most.


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
          R-leaning Indy.

          • roguemapper August 10, 2017 at 6:51 pm

            I think Sherrod Brown would have a good shot at the nomination if he ran and I don’t think it’d be “sneaking” in the sense of someone who flies under the radar until they pull off an upset. I’d say Brown’s odds depend on whether Sanders/Warren run. If neither of those run then Brown has an excellent shot at consolidating the populist wing of the party.


            Dem NC-11

            • fzw August 10, 2017 at 7:28 pm

              Trump v. Brown: get your wife beater apparel ready!


              Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
              R-leaning Indy.

      • Indy1975a August 10, 2017 at 10:49 pm

        If Brown wins re-election in 2018 (and I think he’s more to likely than not), I think he’d be a very formidable candidate to win the primary. His populist record is a perfect fit for Iowa. Brown could easily put together a coalition of left-wing Bernie supporters and blue collar and rural whites who are turned off by the rest of the candidates.
        The big unknown is whether Brown has the charisma for a national campaign. That was what stopped Scott Walker in 2015.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

    • segmentation_fault August 10, 2017 at 6:44 pm

      My favorites atm are Moulton, Harris, and Franken.


      core dumped

      • Mike1965 August 10, 2017 at 6:55 pm

        Franken has ruled out a run. Of course so did Obama in 2005.

        I like Moulton and but I have never gotten the Harris hype. People are trying to force a female Obama but besides checking the demographic boxes I just don’t find her very compelling.


        Corker 2020

        • roguemapper August 10, 2017 at 7:14 pm

          The Bernie jerks will have to land somewhere if Bernie drops dead or otherwise doesn’t run again. Ironically, for all the flak that Kamala Harris has been getting from them lately she’s the only one of the above quartet who has fully endorsed all five of their supposed core policy issues! As for whether she or anyone else fires up the party the way that Obama did, there’s really no way to know until candidates actually start campaigning.


          Dem NC-11

        • segmentation_fault August 10, 2017 at 7:36 pm

          I think she is authentic. Listen/watch interview with her.


          core dumped

    • Tekzilla August 10, 2017 at 7:47 pm

      Booker and Klobuchar are two of my favorites but I think Klobuchar while probably perfect for pre-08 politics is maybe too low key for whats likely to be a star studded Election cycle (In terms of media) and Booker is too close to Wall Street to win the primary. Out of the most likely to run I think Harris might be becoming my favorite. I don’t want Warren topping the ticket and I absolutely don’t want Gabbard or Nina Turner anywhere near it either. I think Harris is a slightly better bet than Gillibrand and probably a little harder to attack. I really like Moulton and Bullock but I’m not sure they can gain national traction.

      Klobuchar would make the best President, Booker is the closest to me on the issues but Harris might be my choice in the end, Stopping the other people I mentioned is pretty key to me.

      I should add that I’d be “OK” with Bernie but only if it meant not having an Our Revolution type as the nominee and if my other favorites are out.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • californianintexas August 10, 2017 at 11:03 pm

        Klobuchar seems to parallel Bill Richardson, with crossover appeal locally and from a part of the country key to Democrats’ wins. Unfortunately, it seems that if Klobuchar ran, she’d meet the same fate. (If I was a Dem, Klobuchar would be my top choice like Richardson was in ’08.)


        34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

        • Tekzilla August 10, 2017 at 11:54 pm

          Richardson was my 2nd choice in 2008 behind Obama. His resume was so perfect for President. Ah well.

          Out of all the likely people to run in 2020 do you like any of them, or at least enough to vote for beyond Klobuchar anyways?


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • californianintexas August 11, 2017 at 1:41 am

            So far none of the Dem contenders are close to me ideologically, but it’s still early.

            If I was a Dem, the second best candidate to me would be Brown if he won in ’18. If not for the Wall Street connections, Booker would be the third best candidate.


            34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • andyroo312 August 10, 2017 at 8:04 pm

      I don’t see Gillibrand or especially Klobuchar mustering much traction. I also think Booker is a tad overrated. Harris, however, could be a smash among identity politics-obsessed Democrats.

      Personally, I’m fondest of Biden, Bullock, Cuomo, Franken and Warner (and Kasich, of course, on the other side). Decent chance all of those pass, though.


      MA-7

      • district1 August 10, 2017 at 8:12 pm

        Harris has one big thing going for her – she obviously wants it. She is ambitious and focused. The rest of these people have had their chances and were too timid to make the plunge.

        How are you supposed to convince other people you should be president if it doesn’t even seem like you believe it yourself?


        ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

  • Manhatlibertarian August 10, 2017 at 4:43 pm

    Interesting article on the contest for Cal Dem Party Chief. Activist challenger Kimberly Ellis to “Boss” (Eric) Bauman for the party position says if the final Dem party report due out August 20 does not back her claim that Bauman won by election “improprieties”, she will then go to court, continuing the dispute. Although she supported Clinton, as did Bauman, Ellis, a Bay Area activist, has the support of the more left leaning Dems, in particular Sanders supporters. Bauman is actually pretty liberal, supporting single payer health insurance, but admits he has a “Tammany Hall” image “Because I do have that personality. And it works.” His critics say he is gruff and abrasive, and his thick Bronx accent (where he is originally from) adds to that image. Yet both are from minorities in this diverse state: Ellis is an AA female and Bauman is an Orthodox Jew and openly gay. If the GOP in Cal wasn’t so moribund, they might be able to take advantage of this split, but the Repubs will be lucky if they re-elect all 14 GOP Congressmen in 2018.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/09/us/democrats-california-eric-bauman.html?ref=todayspaper

  • w920us August 10, 2017 at 5:07 pm

    Hey look at that. Trump is using a made up poll just like PPP does.

    Trump touts online poll showing he’s a ‘better president’ than Obama
    http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/346001-trump-touts-online-poll-showing-hes-better-president-than-obama


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • rdw72777 August 10, 2017 at 5:10 pm

      He’s the worst vacationer in history 🙂

    • Tekzilla August 10, 2017 at 7:49 pm

      You are suggesting PPP makes up twitter clicker polls?


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • Greyhound August 10, 2017 at 5:48 pm

    Bit of an unscientific poll here, but Gallup’s measure of changes since 2016 in “Worry” and “Stress” finds a notable gap between Spanish-speaking Hispanics (who are up alot on both counts) and English-speaking ones (who are actually down in Stress and only up slightly in worry). Helps suggest that English-speaking Hispanics are way more positive on Trump than Spainish-speaking ones.

    Also of note is the demographic breakdown of the difference between Spanish and English-speaking Hispanics (Defined as what language they took the interview in). Nothing too surprising, but given how youth-skewed English-Speaking Hispanics are, there’s plenty of reason to think that the Hispanic vote is going to start gliding towards the GOP in the near future.


    R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

    • Greyhound August 10, 2017 at 5:48 pm

      Forgot the link:
      http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/215657/hispanics-emotional-during-trump-era.aspx


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 10, 2017 at 7:13 pm

      Probably not a GOP-leaning group, but definitely far less Dem-leaning. IIRC, the real reason why Texan or New Mexican Hispanics are so much conservative than say, California Hispanics are because a much higher proportion are US-born.

      Course, it’s not a horrible outcome for Democrats if America looks and votes like New Mexico. But it’s hardly a permanent Democratic majority.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • TheWizardOf144 August 10, 2017 at 6:46 pm

    Another poll with Roy Moore leading http://m.wbrc.com/myfoxal/db_330638/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=IrwOB9G3

  • Jon Henrik Gilhuus August 10, 2017 at 6:55 pm

    Cast my early vote today for the parliamentary election on September 11. A few words about our voting system while I’m in the zone… The bulk of votes will be cast on election day, and every vote will be assigned to the county where the voter was living as of June 30 this year, when the voter rolls were completed. The voter rolls are public and you can complain to your local election board if by some oversight you are not registered, or you are registered in the wrong place. Everybody has the opportunity to cast an early vote starting today, through the Friday before the election, no questions asked. If you had a valid reason, or you’re voting from abroad, you could vote early from July 1. Also, unless you’re known to the poll workers, you need to show a picture ID; I used my driver’s licence. If you don’t have a picture ID, you will not be allowed to vote, end of argument. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the voter rolls are up to date, public, open to scrutinizing eyes and the media, and any hint of irregularities, should they ever occur, will be dealt with in a serious, adult way – none of the polarized accusations, counter-accusations, party machines, dead people voting and mutual distrust that so sadly characterizes US elections.


    The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
    - P.J. O'Rourke

  • Vosmyorka August 10, 2017 at 9:30 pm

    I find it very unlikely that Kamala Harris runs — she is known to be quite personally friendly with both Booker and Gillibrand, and I haven’t seen reports of her visiting early states (like Booker and Gillibrand have consistently been doing), and her Senate voting record hasn’t been anywhere near as over-the-top anti-Trump as Booker and Gillibrand’s have. If she IS running, she must know that there’s no strategy for her besides being the embodiment of the Resistance, and she certainly has nothing to lose electorally in her home state by doing so. The only conclusion I have is that Harris is probably not going to run in 2020, though perhaps she does want to be seen as a VP possibility if the nominee ends up being someone who needs “identity” cred, of which there are plenty of plausible choices (Biden/Sanders/Moulton all instantly come to mind).

    Klobuchar is a bit harder to analyze. She has gone to IA a lot, but she hasn’t really been doing much to try to get her name out there nationally, and it’s pretty clear that if she were to run she’d be running on a “Midwestern common-sense” platform bordering on regionalism, hoping to win IA and sell “I can reverse 2016” to the rest of the Dem primary electorate. This strategy hasn’t worked on the Dem side since Gephardt/Harkin in 1988/1992 (it flunked for Gephardt in 2004, though Obama used notes of this in 2008 he appealed to other groups besides) but in a field split a million different ways in an age where name recognition is easier to build than it might have been a few decades ago, it may work out better for her than in the past. One issue for her is that it seems unlikely that she’ll be the only one pursuing this track — Bullock seems clearly to want to run on basically the same platform, Cuomo/Hickenlooper have publicly considered it, there’s probably a lot of overlap between these guys and the veteran-voters who would be attracted to a Moulton candidacy. Biden would be able to push a lot of these guys out if he runs, I think. There’s a lot of room in Iowa for non-uber-progressive non-minority candidates, but not an infinite amount.

    Brown has never demonstrated any national ambitions, and his scandals would hurt him enormously if he were to run for President, to the point of possibly costing him his Senate seat. He knows it can’t happen and isn’t worth it.


    Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

    • roguemapper August 10, 2017 at 10:07 pm

      I think the odds are high that there have been fewer reports of Harris visiting early states because she entered the Senate in 2017 whereas Gillibrand entered in 2009 and Booker entered in 2013. Have Gillibrand or Booker visited any early states since last November?


      Dem NC-11

  • w920us August 10, 2017 at 9:34 pm

    Any predictions on how soon Trump will be blamed for the weather and flooding in New Orleans. I mean we now have a Dem Guy & Mayor, coupled with a GOP Prez like another somewhat similar event. So I’m thinking the odds are high!

    John Bel Edwards declares state of emergency over New Orleans flooding concerns
    http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flood_emergency.html


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • Tekzilla August 10, 2017 at 10:10 pm

      No one is going to blame him but remember that Trump criticized Obama and Clinton for not visiting Disaster sites quick enough last year, now Trump will not leave his Vacation to do the same. So I’d expect hypocrisy attacks.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • Manhatlibertarian August 10, 2017 at 10:00 pm

    It is being reported that a comprehensive deal is near to fill the NJ US Attorney post and a circuit court and two district court slots involving NJ. Criminal defense attorney and former assistant US Attorney Craig Carpentino, a Christie ally, is to become US Attorney for NJ. Another Christie ally, Newark University Hospital general counsel Paul Matey, would be nominated for the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals. As part of the deal two district court judge nominations favored by Dem Senators Booker and Menendez would be submitted. One of the district court judge nominees would be Julien Neals, the Bergen County counsel, who is close to Booker. Jared Kushner, who dislikes Christie for prosecuting his father, has agreed to drop his opposition to the deal. Not final yet but deal seems to be close.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/trump-poised-to-nominate-christie-ally-for-u-s-attorney-post-20170810.html

    • w920us August 10, 2017 at 10:41 pm

      With as much corruption going on in NJ, I’m surprised NJ hasn’t been split in two regarding US Attorneys and the US District court of NJ (as seen in other states).


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • rdelbov August 10, 2017 at 10:56 pm

        I wondered as well. This is not to say that all judges meet in one city as there are separate court houses in Camden, Trenton and Newark. West TN has two courthouse in Jackson and Memphis. I suspect that due to geography-the three court houses only 90 minutes apart-judges, staff and attorneys can travel fairly
        quickly from court house to courthouse.

        Of course Minnesota is a huge state-travel wise-court only meets in St Paul and Minneapolis. So jurors, lawyers and defendants have a lot of travel time but judges do not.

  • w920us August 10, 2017 at 11:08 pm

    Trump’s criticism of McConnell (or Ryan for that matter) can be so counterproductive. Glad to see McConnell’s colleagues supporting him.

    GOP senators rally to McConnell’s defense amid Trump attacks
    http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/346143-gop-senators-rally-to-mcconnells-defense-amid-trump-attacks


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • cer August 11, 2017 at 1:02 am

      Trump has a valid point… get back to work on hc and taxes.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • GerGOP August 11, 2017 at 2:14 am

        The recess should have been cancelled. Yes, they are not vaccations, but hellohoo… There is a Mountain of work which remains to be done.

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