PA-Sen: As expected, Rep. Lou Barletta (R) kicked off his campaign against Sen. Bob Casey (D) on Tuesday, giving Republicans an unexpectedly good recruit for this race. HERE is our Great Mentioner for his open PA-11 seat from when the news first broke a few weeks ago.
WI-Sen: State Rep. Dale Kooyenga (R) will not run for the US Senate next year. Veteran Kevin Nicholson (R) is in the race to take on Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), while State Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) and 2012 candidate Eric Hovde (R) are considering.
AL-Gov, AL-1: Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) will run for a third full term in Congress and will not enter the crowded gubernatorial primary. Byrne has indicated he may reconsider if incumbent Kay Ivey (R) does not seek a full term. Many Republicans are running in this primary.
CA-Gov: Fresh off an easy re-election this spring, LA Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) has refused to rule out a gubernatorial run. Should Garcetti enter, he would join his predecessor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), LG Gavin Newsom (D), Treasurer John Chiang (D), and ex-Superintendent Delaine Eastin (D) on the D side of the top two primary. Self-funding businessman and vanity presidential candidate John Cox (R) and State Rep. Travis Allen (R) are also in the race.
GA-Gov: State Sen. Hunter Hill (R) resigned to focus on his gubernatorial bid this week; Hill’s upscale seat based in Atlanta’s tony Buckhead neighborhood is probably more likely than not to flip to Dems in the upcoming special. Hill is facing LG Casey Cagle (R), SoS Brian Kemp (R), and fellow State Sen. Michael Williams (R) in the GOP primary for this open seat.
KS-Gov: State House Speaker Ron Ryckman (R) will not run for Governor, seeing instead to stay in the House. Gov-designate Jeff Colyer (R) and SoS Kris Kobach (R) headline a crowded GOP primary field here; ex-State Rep. Mark Hutton (R), a moderate, became the latest candidate into the field yesterday.
OH-Gov: Jer-ry! A “friend” says that ex-Cincinnati Mayor Jerry Springer (D) is considering a run for Governor of Ohio. Springer, who has dabbled with several bids for Ohio races before but never pulled the trigger, would join a crowded Dem primary if he enters.
MA-3: Radio DJ Greg Hill (R), who hosts the morning show on Boston’s modern rock station, is considering a run for Rep. Niki Tsongas’s open seat. Hill would give the GOP a credible candidate with name recognition but still face a very uphill battle in the deep-blue district. State Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D) and former Boston Mayor Marty Walsh CoS Dan Koh (D) are considering the race and many other Dems are thought to be interested.
PA-15: State Rep. Justin Simmons (R) is considering a primary challenge to moderate Rep. Charlie Dent (R). Dent, who is among the caucus’s more moderate members, represents a historically-swingy Lehigh Valley seat that has been gerrymandered to light-to-medium red status with the addition of conservative territory near Harrisburg.
SC-1: State Rep. Katie Arrington (R), a first-term legislator, will challenge Rep. Mark Sanford (R) in the GOP primary. Arrington appears to be promising to be a stronger Trumpist than the Trump skeptic Sanford. She also has some establishment support from her legislative connections, meaning she could be a credible threat to the incumbent.
State & Local:
MI-SoS: Professor and Trump Michigan campaign manager Joseph Guzman (R) has filed to run for the SoS seat. He will face State Sen. Mike Kowall (R) and Shelby Twp. Clerk Stan Grot (R) in the GOP convention. 2010 nominee Jocelyn Benson (D) is considered likely to run again for Dems.
OH-Aud: Ex-Rep. Zack Space (D) kicked off his campaign for State Auditor as expected this week. The race is highly important as the State Auditor (with the Gov and SoS) draws Ohio’s legislative maps. Space, who was swept into a rural red eastern Ohio seat on the 2006 wave and swept out on the 2010 wave, is not expected to face significant primary opposition; he will likely face State Rep. Keith Faber (R) in the general.
NE-SD-16, WATN: 2014 Nebraska gubernatorial nominee Chuck Hassebrook (D) will seek a state legislative seat streatching from the northern suburbs of Omaha to rural northeast Nebraska.
NC-Redistrict: The NC general assembly has quickly passed the new legislative redistricting maps. Overall there isn’t a huge amount of change, but it does make several R-trending rural seats more competitive and several D-trending suburban seats less competitive.