Political Roundup for August 31, 2017

Senate:

PA-Sen: As expected, Rep. Lou Barletta (R) kicked off his campaign against Sen. Bob Casey (D) on Tuesday, giving Republicans an unexpectedly good recruit for this race. HERE is our Great Mentioner for his open PA-11 seat from when the news first broke a few weeks ago.

WI-Sen: State Rep. Dale Kooyenga (R) will not run for the US Senate next year. Veteran Kevin Nicholson (R) is in the race to take on Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), while State Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) and 2012 candidate Eric Hovde (R) are considering.

Governor:

AL-Gov, AL-1: Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) will run for a third full term in Congress and will not enter the crowded gubernatorial primary. Byrne has indicated he may reconsider if incumbent Kay Ivey (R) does not seek a full term. Many Republicans are running in this primary.

CA-Gov: Fresh off an easy re-election this spring, LA Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) has refused to rule out a gubernatorial run. Should Garcetti enter, he would join his predecessor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), LG Gavin Newsom (D), Treasurer John Chiang (D), and ex-Superintendent Delaine Eastin (D) on the D side of the top two primary. Self-funding businessman and vanity presidential candidate John Cox (R) and State Rep. Travis Allen (R) are also in the race.

GA-Gov: State Sen. Hunter Hill (R) resigned to focus on his gubernatorial bid this week; Hill’s upscale seat based in Atlanta’s tony Buckhead neighborhood is probably more likely than not to flip to Dems in the upcoming special. Hill is facing LG Casey Cagle (R), SoS Brian Kemp (R), and fellow State Sen. Michael Williams (R) in the GOP primary for this open seat.

KS-Gov: State House Speaker Ron Ryckman (R) will not run for Governor, seeing instead to stay in the House. Gov-designate Jeff Colyer (R) and SoS Kris Kobach (R) headline a crowded GOP primary field here; ex-State Rep. Mark Hutton (R), a moderate, became the latest candidate into the field yesterday.

OH-Gov: Jer-ry! A “friend” says that ex-Cincinnati Mayor Jerry Springer (D) is considering a run for Governor of Ohio. Springer, who has dabbled with several bids for Ohio races before but never pulled the trigger, would join a crowded Dem primary if he enters.

House:

MA-3: Radio DJ Greg Hill (R), who hosts the morning show on Boston’s modern rock station, is considering a run for Rep. Niki Tsongas’s open seat. Hill would give the GOP a credible candidate with name recognition but still face a very uphill battle in the deep-blue district. State Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D) and former Boston Mayor Marty Walsh CoS Dan Koh (D) are considering the race and many other Dems are thought to be interested.

PA-15: State Rep. Justin Simmons (R) is considering a primary challenge to moderate Rep. Charlie Dent (R). Dent, who is among the caucus’s more moderate members, represents a historically-swingy Lehigh Valley seat that has been gerrymandered to light-to-medium red status with the addition of conservative territory near Harrisburg.

SC-1: State Rep. Katie Arrington (R), a first-term legislator, will challenge Rep. Mark Sanford (R) in the GOP primary. Arrington appears to be promising to be a stronger Trumpist than the Trump skeptic Sanford. She also has some establishment support from her legislative connections, meaning she could be a credible threat to the incumbent.

State & Local:

MI-SoS: Professor and Trump Michigan campaign manager Joseph Guzman (R) has filed to run for the SoS seat. He will face State Sen. Mike Kowall (R) and Shelby Twp. Clerk Stan Grot (R) in the GOP convention. 2010 nominee Jocelyn Benson (D) is considered likely to run again for Dems.

OH-Aud: Ex-Rep. Zack Space (D) kicked off his campaign for State Auditor as expected this week. The race is highly important as the State Auditor (with the Gov and SoS) draws Ohio’s legislative maps. Space, who was swept into a rural red eastern Ohio seat on the 2006 wave and swept out on the 2010 wave, is not expected to face significant primary opposition; he will likely face State Rep. Keith Faber (R) in the general.

NE-SD-16, WATN: 2014 Nebraska gubernatorial nominee Chuck Hassebrook (D) will seek a state legislative seat streatching from the northern suburbs of Omaha to rural northeast Nebraska.

NC-Redistrict: The NC general assembly has quickly passed the new legislative redistricting maps. Overall there isn’t a huge amount of change, but it does make several R-trending rural seats more competitive and several D-trending suburban seats less competitive.

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136 Comments

  • GorrestFump August 31, 2017 at 8:35 am

    FWIW Zogby did Warren vs. Trump matchups in 11 states, probably crap but interesting to look at.
    https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/792-the-zogby-poll-trump-approval-trump-vs-warren-in-11-states

    • Tekzilla August 31, 2017 at 9:27 am

      Is this the same Zogby thats now a Bernie bro on Twitter, pushing for caucuses and other DSA causes? Some of these numbers are eye popping but come on, its Zogby.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • davybaby August 31, 2017 at 10:39 am

        Or the same Zogby that had Kerry beating Bush in 2004, as late as 5:00 ET on election day?

        • rdw72777 August 31, 2017 at 11:13 am

          To be fair the 2004 elections was amazingly close in the electoral college lol. What were we, like 40-50k votes in NV/NM/IA from having an EC tie?

    • zbigreddogz August 31, 2017 at 9:31 am

      I mean, the thing is, Warren is basically a generic D at this point. Generic R’s and D’s usually do better than whatever real person.

      I’d give this more credence if she’d been taking on water. Which she will the second she starts to run.

    • rdw72777 August 31, 2017 at 11:22 am

      Is it possible to look at a poll that has Liz Warren within 6 of Trump in Kentucky, where Trump has 52% approval, and still take the poll seriously? No, no it’s not possible.

      2016 results: Trump 63, Clinton 33.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Kentucky,_2016

      • prsteve11 August 31, 2017 at 1:43 pm

        What’s more the poll has him leading by 3 points in WV – that just doesn’t jive with reality.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • prsteve11 August 31, 2017 at 11:26 am

      I have more respect for Ras than I do for Zogby.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • GorrestFump August 31, 2017 at 8:39 am

    More fallout from Feinstein gaffe, Kevin de Leon Senate President took issue with her comments. Notably he’s term limited next year and has nowhere else to go, so a Senate run is not out of the question.

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-state-senate-leader-kevin-de-leon-fires-1504115822-htmlstory.html

    • Vosmyorka August 31, 2017 at 9:49 am

      I don’t want to suggest that this is intentional, because I don’t think it is, but it would be pretty fortuitous for Democrats if a serious left-wing challenger to Feinstein were to emerge (I think I suggested earlier this year that Michael Eisen had the potential, but it doesn’t seem like his fundraising has been that great); since the gubernatorial race is already very likely to be Villaraigosa against Newsom, a Democrat or left-wing independent reaching the general against Feinstein means no Republican reaches the general in any remotely high-profile statewide race, which will go a long way towards flipping at least a few of those 7 Clinton/House R seats, not to mention entrenching an over-2/3 majority in the legislature.

      (I want to note again how lucky Republicans are that California voters passed 2010’s Proposition 20; if not there would be nothing stopping Democrats from drawing perfectly legal, VRA-compliant maps that are safely D 53-0).

      I doubt that Feinstein would lose to an ideological challenge, for much the same reason Thad Cochran didn’t; ultimately the Republicans who do vote will prefer her to an activist type and her base in the Bay Area, which is necessary for any statewide left-activist win, won’t budge from supporting her either. She would be vulnerable to a non-ideological (albeit Democratic) “renewal” type candidacy that too long-time congressmen are sometimes abruptly felled by (this happened on the other side of the aisle to Ralph Hall quite recently), but there doesn’t seem to be any indication that one of those is coming together.


      Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

  • HS August 31, 2017 at 8:43 am

    I have heard from my friends in Allentown that a lot of former very pro-Charlie Dent people are not going to be with him if he is challenged. You can’t keep picking fights with every other faction of the Republican base and expect no pushback. What’s a shame is that Dent used to understand that. Back in the 90s and 00s he was unbeatable.

    • Tekzilla August 31, 2017 at 9:28 am

      Dent IMO seems to be a perfect target for party switching, especially if the challenge comes to fruition.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • krazen1211 August 31, 2017 at 9:38 am

        Who switches into the House minority?

        • Vosmyorka August 31, 2017 at 9:56 am

          Not THAT unusual (happens about once a decade) but very hard to pull off successfully. Most recent examples:

          2010: Parker Griffith (D to R, Alabama): lost subsequent primary
          1999: Michael Forbes (R to D, New York): lost subsequent primary
          1989: Tommy Robinson (D to R, Arkansas): lost subsequent general election
          1989: Jim Grant (D to R, Florida): lost subsequent general election
          1984: Andy Ireland (D to R, Florida): most recent person to switch to the minority party successfully, went on to stay in the House in the new party of his choice about a decade later


          Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

      • zbigreddogz August 31, 2017 at 9:42 am

        No way he switches parties. He’d suffer the same fate as Specter if he did. And he’s more conservative than Specter.

        • rdw72777 August 31, 2017 at 11:18 am

          I think Dent would hold the seat as a D. he’s beaten the best D opposition in this seat in it’s current and previous forms. This seat isn’t nearly as red as his numbers have made it seem. The problem for him as a D, as with any D in this district, is turning out the Puerto Rican population in Allentown which is dismal in POTUS years and even worse in mid-terms. If he has some secret sauce for that then he’d probably win comfortably but I’m not sure such a sauce exists.

          • zbigreddogz August 31, 2017 at 11:23 am

            He may win the general.

            I don’t think he’d win the primary. It’s not hard to get some Bernie Bro to beat a former Republican in a relatively low-turnout p primary.

            • rdw72777 August 31, 2017 at 11:40 am

              D’s would likely stand down for him, certainly the establishment ones. He’s always drawn significant D support in generals and most of that support certainly is not Bernie Bro.

              • HS August 31, 2017 at 11:50 am

                The Old Dent never would switch. The New Dent might. Specter may have been more liberal, but he was also very tied into the PA GOP leadership in the state. Many of his former staff and proteges were important Republicans – see Pat Meehan. Dent does not have those party ties, so it is more likely in that respect. And the 15th District is less Republican than the 2016 numbers indicate. Trump pulled in a lot of blue collar white Dems who vote Dem for other offices. Many of them still like Dent.

              • zbigreddogz August 31, 2017 at 1:22 pm

                You’re missing the point. Of course he’d have “the establishment” work with him. And he’d win a general.

                The trick is getting through the primary. I propose to you that would be nearly impossible. Don’t believe me? Look what happened to Tim Holden just for being a moderate D, let alone an R turned D. And Cartwright was essentially just a random politically active lawyer.

                I’d be stunned if there wasn’t some decent Cartwright like character that could rally the base against a party switcher.

                • Ryan_in_SEPA August 31, 2017 at 5:00 pm

                  The Democrats have candidates who could beat him from the left or right in a primary.


                  31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • krazen1211 August 31, 2017 at 6:29 pm

            If Dent becomes a D I could definitely see a push to cut his district..

  • rdelbov August 31, 2017 at 10:18 am

    There was a minor change in the NC state senate map over the weekend

    http://www.fayobserver.com/news/20170827/senate-map-gerrymandered-for-senators-house

    Ouch that is a bit ugly. The new lines in Cumberland county appear to protect all incumbents and yes the GOP did not make much of a run at house seat #44

    http://www.fayobserver.com/news/20170821/new-maps-appear-to-protect-incumbent-cumberland-county-lawmakers

    The current state senate map was discussed here several months ago and it is sorta of ugly. The new map is more compact and is likely safe for Senator Meredith. It moves 3% or so to the D side. It could have been even more R then that and a few minor moves but I think this is neat enough.

  • davybaby August 31, 2017 at 10:45 am

    When Jerry Springer first ran for OH-Gov, in 1982, a young Maria Cantwell, fresh out of Miami of Ohio (’80), was on his staff. Of course, she is now a U. S. Senator (D-WA).

  • segmentation_fault August 31, 2017 at 11:33 am

    West Virginia MetroNews poll

    Trump 48/39
    Manchin 51/34
    Capito 40/38
    Justice 34/44

    If Trump is polling about 19 points worse than his popular vote performance nationally, he should be at +23 in WV.

    • fzw August 31, 2017 at 11:37 am

      Simple: more room for him to fall in red and swing states than in blue ones. Not that I particularly believe he’s only +9 there, though.


      Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
      R-leaning Indy.

    • pstchrisp August 31, 2017 at 11:48 am

      He got just under 46% nationally. He’s at 27% Approval Nationally right now? Where?
      https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

      • segmentation_fault August 31, 2017 at 11:52 am

        I’m talking about spread, not swing. He lost by 2 nationally, and is down by around 21 points (36% approve, 57% disapprove) in polls, so that’s -19.

        Won by 42 (68/26) in WV, should be at +23 approval, which would be like 58/35.

        • shamlet August 31, 2017 at 11:54 am

          See below. A good rule of thumb with Repass is to allocate all undecideds to the Republican and then you get quasi-realistic numbers.


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

          • segmentation_fault August 31, 2017 at 12:04 pm

            Ok. Well, we don’t get many WV polls, maybe RRH could do one.

        • pstchrisp August 31, 2017 at 12:09 pm

          I thought maybe you were using Spread, but the worst the spread’s been in RCP was 20.0 for one day. Been mostly mid-teens for the year, lately high-teens.

    • shamlet August 31, 2017 at 11:48 am

      Repass. Worst Pollster Ever; huge D house effect. Disregard.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • andyroo312 August 31, 2017 at 12:29 pm

      If the Manchin job approval is accurate, that race is Likely D.


      MA-7

      • shamlet August 31, 2017 at 12:46 pm

        It’s not.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • Manhatlibertarian August 31, 2017 at 1:02 pm

        I’ve always thought that Manchin will be hard to defeat.

        • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 1:07 pm

          He might be, but this is Repass. Throw it in the incinerator (the garbage can is too good for it).


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • rdelbov August 31, 2017 at 1:17 pm

            I tend not to get too excited about one poll–especially from this pollster and especially 15 months before an election

  • Left Coast Libertarian August 31, 2017 at 12:34 pm

    Reading on Twitter about the MSM’s lack of interest in the Menendez trial and I found out that Corrine “Fair Districts is about me” Brown was convicted. I hadn’t seen anything about that anywhere. When did this happen? I assume that even if the MSM didn’t cover it, RRH did and I missed it. I assumed she was still trying to invalidate the congressional map.

    • Manhatlibertarian August 31, 2017 at 1:09 pm

      Well let’s see what coverage is starting Sept. 6 when opening statements are made in the Menendez trial. I’ve read the trial will likely last 6-8 weeks, so you are not going to get coverage everyday, but if the MSM was objective you might expect some degree of coverage. However, right now the MSM is focused on taking down Trump, who they totally despise, so spending any amount of time covering the Menendez trial takes away from that; plus Menendez is a liberal Dem. Remember the slant in TV News is not only in what you hear but in what you don’t hear.

      • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 1:20 pm

        It’s also about how much coverage things get. ‘Trump did something horrible’ is a lot of outlets’ bread and butter right now because it sells. The Melendez trial will likely get mentions here and there; it’s too big to ignore completely. However, there will likely only be mentions of the trial’s opening, maybe a report on a big twist a few weeks in (if there is one), then a report on the end of the trial (this excludes local media, who will likely cover it a bit more).


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • rdw72777 August 31, 2017 at 1:26 pm

          Menendez also isn’t a national figure. He’s not even really a titan in NY/NJ politics (he’s overshadowed by Christie, Cuomo, Schumer, DiBlasio and probably a host of others I’m omitting like Norcross). His trial would have to be about something juicy (an affair or something else salacious) to even matter to most people in NY/NJ.

        • HS August 31, 2017 at 1:35 pm

          Well, if Menendez was having sex with prostitutes or something, the media may be tempted to pay attention. And I believe that the donor was bringing in his “girlfriends” 😉

          Menendez is a liberal Democrat, except he is a JFK/Scoop Jackson Democrat on foreign policy. He is more hawkish then some Republicans on Iran. For that reason i will miss him if he gets convicted.

    • rdw72777 August 31, 2017 at 1:22 pm

      Why post such silly stuff.

      ” I assume that even if the MSM didn’t cover it”

      Of course MSM covered it. Just Google Corinne Brown and the first 20 Google links include coverage from CBS News, FoxNews, NPR, CNN and then of course all the local outlets in Florida. Go to 30 links and you can add in NYTimes, DailyBeast, ABCNews, and so on The MSM didn’t miss anything…you were sleeping. The endless MSM narrative just requires a Google search to disprove. It reminds me of when NBC used to run re-runs of sitcoms… back in the 2000’s…”If you haven’t seen it, it’s new to you.”

      Here’s the link to the ever-so-complicated Google search:

      https://www.google.com/search?q=corrine+brown&ei=ekSoWbyZN4ukjwSvnq3ABQ&start=0&sa=N&biw=1600&bih=794

      • zbigreddogz August 31, 2017 at 1:29 pm

        Yeah, but there’s coverage and then there’s “coverage.”

        Let’s put it this way: the entire world knew who Mark Foley and Bob Ney were. Not so much here.

        I’m not saying media bias is the cause of everything. It’s not. But it’s foolish to think that the same attention is paid to all sides on things like this.

      • Left Coast Libertarian August 31, 2017 at 4:12 pm

        I did Google Corinne Brown and the links were all from Florida, except for ones from CBS, the Atlantic and the conservative Free Beacon. The second page does have from Fox, another conservative outlet, NPR, and down at the bottom, CNN and US News. On the third page there’s something from the NY Times and down a bit from ABC News. Nothing from NBC. Time, or the Washington Post.

        All the national stories are from May 11-12. So no one covered that there was going to be a trial or that there was a trial. There were no national stories from after May 11 or 12. I keep reading stories about Duncan Hunter’s corruption, even though there’s been no conclusion to the FBI’s investigation, and Dana Rohrabacher Russia corruption, although no one makes an actual allegation of wrongdoing.

        So, yes, I blinked and missed the stories about Brown. I can’t miss all the stories about Hunter and Rohrabacher.

  • GorrestFump August 31, 2017 at 1:50 pm

    Interesting poll from NJ, 47% have no opinion or no idea who Menendez is. He has been their Senator for over a decade. If he ends up going not sure many in NJ will notice or care.

    http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/new-wp/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/release_08-31-17-Embargoed.pdf

  • Manhatlibertarian August 31, 2017 at 2:07 pm

    Politico ran a cartoon by political cartoonist Matt Wuerker that shows a Hurricane Harvey flood victim wearing a Confederate flag shirt with a “Secede” sign being rescued by the Coast Guard. The guy proclaims “Angels sent by God”, but the rescuer says no he is from the government. So as with the Univ of Tampa prof who in effect said Texas deserves Harvey for voting for Trump, a disaster affecting huge amounts of people gets portrayed as certain social elite types want to see it. In fact the Houston area has a large Black/Hispanic population, and Clinton carried Harris County, so a number of whites voted for her also. I also think it unlikely most Texas Trump voters walk around wearing Confederate flag shirts and holding Secede signs. I think most Houston Hurricane Harvey victims would be shocked and dismayed to find themselves portrayed the way the cartoonist does.

    https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/kyle-drennen/2017/08/30/heres-what-politico-thinks-texas-storm-victims

    • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 2:29 pm

      The implication with the Tampa prof is interesting because Florida voted for Trump, too. I think he’d have a rather different reaction if Florida was hit by an equally as devastating event.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • kewgardens August 31, 2017 at 3:18 pm

      When it comes to Hurricane Harvey cartoons . . . .
      Charlie Hebdo to Matt Wuerker: “Hold my beer”

      https://twitter.com/ByronYork/status/903242155937976321

      “God Exists”

      • FiveAngels August 31, 2017 at 3:33 pm

        The difference is, Charlie Hebdo is a proven equal opportunity offender and intentionally ridiculous and crude, while Wuerker thought he was making some sort of poignant political commentary.

        • segmentation_fault August 31, 2017 at 3:38 pm

          Yes, many of the people now upset about Charlie’s Texas cartoon liked their cartoons on Islam.

          • WingNightAlone August 31, 2017 at 3:41 pm

            It’s funny because this is probably the least Trumpy part of TX outside of Austin and Dallas, and is easily one of the blackest and poorest.


            25. Saint John-Rothesay. Blue Tory. Equipment finance.

          • Mayor Perk August 31, 2017 at 3:44 pm

            So? I don’t see a contradiction there.


            30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

          • HS August 31, 2017 at 3:48 pm

            Hebdo is also French. And the French are among the rudest people on this Earth. We don’t want to be like them. (No offense to you sissy Frenchman and sissy French lovers.)

            Politico is the furthest left of the three Hill papers. It is as bad as the N.Y. Times. I expect it from them. And I expect Democrats and Lefties to be rude and inconsiderate. That’s how we got Trump.

          • kewgardens August 31, 2017 at 4:15 pm

            Of course, if an earthquake knocked San Francisco into the Pacific Ocean, I doubt Charlie Hebdo would produce a cartoon showing drowning residents holding hammer & sickle and antifa flags under the caption “God Exists”.

            • TexasR August 31, 2017 at 4:18 pm

              Honestly, they might.


              Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
              Be careful what you wish for

              • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 31, 2017 at 4:26 pm

                And America might not disagree. IIRC, San Francisco is a remarkably disliked city that is truly culturally separated from the rest of the world. In the sense that its easy to feel bad for Texas or New York City because everyone knows someone they like from those places. SF is isolated enough so that doesn’t apply there.


                I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • Ryan_in_SEPA August 31, 2017 at 5:05 pm

                I could imagine far more crude versions of San Francisco in such a cartoon.


                31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

      • SlippingJimmy August 31, 2017 at 5:06 pm

        Man, fuck France.

        America should have never entered WW1…

        A waste of 150,000 American lives to bail out a bunch of militarily anemic frogs.


        Republican, TX-22.

        • Manhatlibertarian August 31, 2017 at 8:04 pm

          Well I can understand your anger, since you are from Texas, but remember this is one sensationalist magazine and doesn’t represent the French nation. I don’t think a majority of the French people think Texas is a Nazi stronghold. Charlie Hebdo is frankly ignorant because they don’t understand that Houston is a Dem city, with a black Dem Mayor and many minorities and Clinton carried Harris County. I don’t think the diverse population of the Houston area suffering through Harvey like being called Nazis by “trendy” French leftists.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 31, 2017 at 8:12 pm

            Their M.O. is trolling. Getting mad at France for Charlie Hebdo is like getting mad at America for something offensive on 4chan.

            Je Suis Charlie is about the very basic idea that people shouldn’t be killed for saying something offensive, which I suppose is an idea much less popular in today’s America.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 31, 2017 at 4:09 pm

    http://dailycaller.com/2017/08/31/maine-dem-states-whiteness-is-bad-news/

    Former Maine State House Speaker and 2018 Gubernatorial candidate: “Maine’s whiteness is bad news.”


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 4:38 pm

      Normally I wouldn’t think that this is too big of a deal, but 1) this is the state house speaker saying this and 2) this is the second time someone has made news by saying this at a Maine Dem event. One instance from a minor candidate (the first one) is just some crank. Two instances (especially from a legislative leader) is a small problem for them. If it happens again and makes the news, that’s a real issue because then it probably becomes a meme.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 4:51 pm

        Correction: former Speaker. Still, that’s pretty bad.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • HS August 31, 2017 at 5:02 pm

          I think the Dems are worried that Maine is moving to the right. So, as usual, they react by attacking the voters. This should be very helpful to the Maine GOP.

          • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 5:07 pm

            Well, yeah, if it continues it will dog them. Obviously a lot of Maine Dems will smartly run away from this. However, if it keeps coming up, it will be a huge problem.


            24, R, TN-09
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • Manhatlibertarian August 31, 2017 at 7:52 pm

              It’s amazing how some Dem officials will come out with this type of leftist SJW jargon. In effect blaming the state of Maine because the state is too white and it’s “bad news” is not going to win elections. It’s almost like these people are GOP plants it is so hard to believe they would say stuff like this.

              • w920us August 31, 2017 at 9:58 pm

                The political instincts of Maine Democrats used to be quite good. Now they’ve gone to the crapper. Honestly I’m amazed at the stupidity of repeatedly putting gun control referedums on the ballot. And now demeaning Maine voters to boot!


                R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
                #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

                • Ryan_in_SEPA August 31, 2017 at 11:36 pm

                  This is what you get when you get transplants in places like Portland who have no real connection to the state.


                  31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • segmentation_fault August 31, 2017 at 5:08 pm

      Well the current governor thinks that Maine’s whiteness is good news, so #ManySides are represented there.

      • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 5:20 pm

        Yeah, but there are almost no minorities in Maine to piss off with those comments. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t like them. However, from a pure political strategy point of view, these reoccurring comments are a much worse blunder.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 31, 2017 at 7:37 pm

          Even if there were, his comments would probably be a lot less damaging than conventional wisdom expects. A lot of anathema in polite circles opinions about race are far more popular among actual voters. IIRC, a majority of white voters and even a fourth of black voters (a much larger share than the % that votes Republican) believes racial discrimination against whites is just as serious or even worse than discrimination against blacks.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Republican Michigander August 31, 2017 at 6:30 pm

      Franky, anyone that uses the term “whiteness” needs to be horsewhipped.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • TheWizardOf144 August 31, 2017 at 4:14 pm

    President Trump is donating $1 million of his own money to the Harvey relief efforts. http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/348753-trump-to-donate-1-million-for-harvey-relief-efforts

  • RogueBeaver August 31, 2017 at 4:26 pm

    Sheriff Clarke is quitting. https://twitter.com/MarkBellingShow/status/903348584510353408


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • TexasR August 31, 2017 at 4:27 pm

      I give it a week before the Fox News hire.


      Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
      Be careful what you wish for

      • MikeFL August 31, 2017 at 5:23 pm

        Following in Palin’s footsteps, basically.


        26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

    • davybaby August 31, 2017 at 7:18 pm

      I guess he figured he had no shot at beating Tammy Baldwin next year.

  • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 4:26 pm

    So I know I’ve brought this up before, but I just don’t see how OR Dems can avoid making the new 6th a Republican votesink without also endangering OR-04 (if it comes open). Right now, OR-04 is R+1 (2016). You can keep it that way while still creating a competitive 6th by taking in the Ashland area in Jackson County to make up for losing Benton County (Corvallis). DeFazio can probably hold it, but it would be endangered if left open. You could make it a bit safer by making it a Eugene-Corvallis-salem seat, but then the new 6th would be much more Republican. So if you keep OR-04 at R+1, you can create a new OR-06 that is something like R+2-3 (2016). You might even be able to get it down to R+1 or EVEN if you stretch the new OR-05 down to Linn County, but that means that OR-05 could’t be made safe by taking in more of Portland. To get the R+2-3 seat, you have to throw Yamhill County into OR-05 as well (because Washington county grew too much to keep all of it in OR-01). Even if you split Yamhill and kept most of it in OR-01, that means that you’re still either adding Rs to OR-06 or OR-05. If OR-05 has to go down to Linn County, then you might keep OR-05 fairly competitive (if open). It’s just too crazy of a balancing act (plus it screws with Schrader’s primary electorate). All of these moves take population shifts into account. Basically, they can make the new 6th theoretically winnable for them with a good candidate, but they could also lose OR-04. What do y’all think that OR Dems will do?


    24, R, TN-09
    Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • TexasR August 31, 2017 at 4:32 pm

      It depends on how many states they will control in 2021. If they still don’t have control in very many non-commission states, I could see them just going for broke.


      Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
      Be careful what you wish for

      • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 4:44 pm

        You might be right. Given the trends in rural and non-SWPL small-city OR, though, it would probably be rather stupid to try and go for broke. Even Lane County (where Eugene is) trended right in 2016, and some of the trends (along the coast and the Columbia River) pre-date 2016. I think in the end they’d still hold onto the 5th in an open-seat situation, but the 4th and the new 6th probably hold steady for them at best, and could very easily move right during the next decade. You’re probably right, though.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Greyhound August 31, 2017 at 4:55 pm

      Baconstrip Portland. Seriously, its not that hard, and there’s no pesky VRA requirements to get in the way.


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 5:02 pm

        Blumenauer and especially Schrader likely wouldn’t stand for that, though. Schrader doesn’t want to lose in the primary to some nut from Portland. Plus, if you did that, someone probably puts a redistricting commission on the ballot. If it passed (which it probably would), Dems would likely insta-lose two seats (in 2032) and have a third in a bit of danger if Schrader were to retire. Also, the easiest parts of Multnomah County to attach to a new 6th are also the least Democratic parts.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • jncca August 31, 2017 at 7:02 pm

          Blumenauer will be 74 in 2022. He may well just retire to be a team player unless he wants to die on office.


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 7:06 pm

            True enough, but that doesn’t change the fact that western Multnomah is still hemmed-in by Bonamici’s and Schrader’s bases. I guess that you could add Tillamook and Lincoln Counties to OR-03 as well, though that will likely piss off some people. If you could do it it would free -up a few more PVI points for the 6th. Those are both Dem counties (though Tillamook voted for Trump) though, so it would have a limited effect.


            24, R, TN-09
            Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • rdelbov August 31, 2017 at 5:30 pm

        I sincerely doubt we ever see Portland baconstripped 4 ways to do a 5-1 or 6-0 map. This is Oregon and not MD or IL or PA folks. There would be enough rural or out state D legislators. There is also the initiative and referendum process in Oregon-if either party did a IL or MD or PA style map there would be redistricting reform and the Ds do not want that.

        Just saying that a 6th seat IMO would likely be D in OR just as it is logical to suggest an 8th seat in CO might lean D. In CO you could detach Douglas county from CO6 and build that CD up with pieces form CD3-CD4-CD5 . Likewise CD8 would be made complete with bits from CD7/CD1.

        • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 5:35 pm

          Yeah, but it’s a lot harder to do a CO-style soft gerrymander in OR because unlike Denver, Portland is not in the middle of the state.


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Vosmyorka August 31, 2017 at 6:20 pm

        I don’t think you really have to baconstrip Portland, though, unless you want to go for 6-0. For 5-1 just cutting it in half would be sufficient.


        Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

        • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 6:47 pm

          I thought you might be right, so I mapped it. Adding Clatsop and Columbia Counties to western Multnomah frees up a lot of Dems. However, eastern Multnomah + rural Clackamas County + Linn County + Benton County + Lincoln County + Tillamook County + a bit of Polk and rural Marion still only gets you to D+1-2 by 2008 numbers. The new district is likely EVEN or R+1 by 2016 numbers. You can get that another point to the left by messing around in Multnomah, but it’s still shaky. Eastern Mulnomah just isn’t that Democratic, and western Multnomah is just too hemmed-in by Bonamici’s and Schrader’s base areas. Add to that that Dem candidate is likely to be a very lefty Multnomah Dem, and it gets shakier still. You’ve come up with a slightly better way, but I still think it’s not very smart from a Dem perspective.


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • jncca August 31, 2017 at 7:03 pm

            Keep in mind Portland is growing a lot relative to the state. 2010 Census #s aren’t perfect gauges.


            24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

            • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 7:14 pm

              I’m not using 2010 numbers. I’m using 2016 estimates.


              24, R, TN-09
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • rdelbov August 31, 2017 at 8:02 pm

            Washington and Clackamas counties do wrap around Portland. Not sure the local congressman would appreciate their districts and counties sliced and diced up!!

            Oh you divide Portland in half and curl it into CD4 and then curl the other half around CD1 to Salem but I don’t see that happening.

      • fatcathobbes August 31, 2017 at 7:54 pm

        Baconstripping Portland is pretty easy and can be done without anything even resembling MD/OH/NC levels of ugliness. Multnomah is already split between 3 districts. I drew it up on DRA; new CD6 is 57% Obama 2008; it has some Trumpy rural areas but also has eastern Multnomah, which trended in the opposite direction. Every other D-held seat is at least 58% Obama 08.

        • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 10:47 pm

          I’d like to see that map. It’s pretty much impossible to get OR-04 to 58% Obama ’08 without an extremely ugly gerrymander or creating a second Republican-leaning district.


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • CTIronman August 31, 2017 at 11:08 pm

            Put Bend in a western OR seat?

            • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 11:14 pm

              No. Deschutes County is half a congressional district and still leans Republican.


              24, R, TN-09
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 11:19 pm

                Correction: a third of a CD


                24, R, TN-09
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

            • fatcathobbes September 1, 2017 at 2:53 am

              Yep. Put Bend and Ashland in 4 and Roseburg/most of Douglas County in 2.

              • Son_of_the_South September 1, 2017 at 10:14 am

                Lol they never cross the Cascades twice.


                24, R, TN-09
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • roguemapper September 1, 2017 at 6:37 am

            The question of course is just how Democratic do you need the districts to be in order to reliably elect a Democrat. OR-05 was 54.5% Obama in 2008, 50.5% Obama in 2012, and 48.3-44.1 HRC in 2016. Schrader hasn’t had any problem holding the district. In any case, here’s a map with five 60%+ Obama 2008 districts. http://i.imgur.com/RBPSbba.jpg


            Dem NC-11

          • roguemapper September 1, 2017 at 7:11 am

            And if you want a tidier OR-04 this 51-40 HRC district should perform just fine for Ds. http://i.imgur.com/7m9EQta.jpg


            Dem NC-11

            • Son_of_the_South September 1, 2017 at 10:25 am

              That is indeed a very good OR-04, though after that you’d have to do quite a lot of slicing and dicing. Doing something like that almost ensures a Safe R OR-06 unless you get nasty. In fact, this was my point all along. From a purely mathematical standpoint, can you do a safely 5D-1R map in OR after 2022? Yes, of course you can. However, when you factor-in Schrader’s, Bonamici’s, and Blumenauer’s preferences, plus the wish to avoid a redistricting referendum, it’s unlikely to happen. That leaves the Dems with few good options. Also remember that their experiences holding swing seats easily with Schrader and Defazio will probably bias them towards being a little riskier.


              24, R, TN-09
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

              • roguemapper September 1, 2017 at 3:59 pm

                Well, no, it wouldn’t require any more slicing and dicing than my above statewide map. Somewhat less actually.

                http://i.imgur.com/oqejUo7.jpg

                I didn’t bother to redraw the full map because the light green OR-06 was already 65% Obama on that map. Putting all of Benton and Lincoln in OR-04 just means that OR-01 and OR-06 have to rotate around OR-05. The key is really OR-05. So long as they’re willing to draw a relatively thin Salem-to-Beaverton district then the rest of the map is no problem. In this map OR-01 is 64%, OR-05/OR-03 are 60%, OR-04/0R-06 are 59% Obama 2008.


                Dem NC-11

    • Jon August 31, 2017 at 6:42 pm

      As to what I expect an Oregon D trifecta to do, it would be to make the open seat Likely D in their own estimation *, while relying upon power of incumbency to keep D incumbent congressman safe.
      * It’s likely that those out of state simply looking at PVI will call said open seat only Lean D or perhaps even Tossup, but they’ll be something about the seat on the ground that makes it more D than PVI implies.


      45, M, MO-02

  • Ryan_in_SEPA August 31, 2017 at 5:12 pm

    PA-15: Dent calls out Simmons

    http://www.politicspa.com/dent-goes-nuclear-on-simmons-reveals-private-text-messages/84372/


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 5:18 pm

      This thing went from 0 to 60 in a few weeks. I predict a very nasty primary. Revealing someone’s private texts, no matter what they say, is an instant escalation.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • TheWizardOf144 August 31, 2017 at 6:06 pm

      This reaks of desperation.

    • HS August 31, 2017 at 8:11 pm

      Charlie Dent has always gone for the throat. Even when he was guaranteed a win. And this is a positive in politics.

  • Mayor Perk August 31, 2017 at 5:46 pm

    OH-Gov: CFPB Director Rich Cordary (D) fails to deny rumors of his possible candidacy in response to a letter on the subject from House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-TX). Inside the DC beltway, consensus is that Cordary will resign sometime in September and immediately announce his candidacy.

    https://www.housingwire.com/articles/41163-speculation-rises-as-cfpb-director-cordray-fails-to-shut-down-ohio-governor-rumors


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 5:50 pm

      I’m sure that Warren is livid about this. Now Trump gets to appoint the next CFPB director. That being said, Cordray is a decent get for OH Dems (especially considering the state that their bench is in at the moment).


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • Boehnerwasright August 31, 2017 at 6:15 pm

        Trump gets to appoint the next CFBP director either way as Cordary has a 5 year term which ends in 2018.

        • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 6:24 pm

          My mistake. For some reason I thought it was a 10-year term.


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • fzw August 31, 2017 at 6:18 pm

        Controlling the Ohio Governorship during redistricting probably outweighs an extra 10 months of him at CFPB


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • Son_of_the_South August 31, 2017 at 6:24 pm

          True.


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • Vosmyorka August 31, 2017 at 6:25 pm

      Not that past electoral performance necessary predicts future success (lol Ted Strickland), but I don’t think Richard Cordray is necessarily much stronger than the current OH Democratic field. His electoral record is one of mostly a bunch of humiliating defeats interspersed with victories in 2006/2008, and he’s been a DC bureaucrat for most of the past decade. Betty Sutton’s electoral record is much more impressive, Joe Schiavoni and Nan Whaley are both currently active Ohio politicians (albeit both from pretty Democratic areas) who are liked in the Democratic primary, and Connie Pillich has the left-activist appeal down (if not for Mandel destroying her in 2014 I think she’d be favored, but as such she has a loser-stink on her, which is why at present this is probably mostly a battle between Sutton and Schiavoni).

      I don’t even know whether Cordray has more name recognition (among Ohio voters, not DC bureaucrats) than the current field, and there’s certainly no evidence he’s a stronger option.


      Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

      • davybaby August 31, 2017 at 8:05 pm

        Cordray was my state Rep. in the Columbus suburbs in the early 90s. He struck me as a good guy and a good lawyer, but a so-so politician. Maybe his skills have improved since then.

    • Izengabe September 1, 2017 at 6:25 pm

      Hensarling and the GOP should pound away at this. It is absolutely outrageous that the director of the CFPB is running for political office on the side. The CFPB is the Dodd Frank monstrosity agency in charge of regulating financial institutions. The fact that Cordary is regulating industries he is about to hit up for campaign donations is an outrage. If he wants to run he needs to resign now!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy August 31, 2017 at 7:50 pm

    80% of Americans think it should be illegal to fire someone over opposing gay marriage. 60% think it should also be illegal to fire someone over participating in a white nationalist rally like in Chancellorsville.

    The majority of Americans fear repercussions from their employer for expressing political opinions. Even a majority of Democrats side against Google in the Damore affair.

    http://thehill.com/policy/technology/348246-poll-google-was-wrong-to-fire-engineer-over-diversity-memo

    Apparently, the number of Americans who are sympathetic to the beltway libertarian/corporate liberal idea that corporations should be allowed to suppress unprofitable political views is very low. They don’t even side with the corporations against white supremacism!


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • Indy1975a August 31, 2017 at 10:23 pm

      I strongly oppose the idea that people should be fired for their political beliefs or activities. The firing for Damore (who whether or not you like his personal views gave constructive comments in his memo which was only for internal consumption) was a crime. I would hold that position for someone who is a BernieBro or Communists.
      That said, I could look the other way regarding white supremacists. On principle, I’d oppose their firing, but I wouldn’t raise my voice against it.

      I’ll say one more thing. This behavior by liberal corporatists may backfire big time against these corporations. The right has traditionally defended the rights of corporations, and if you get politicians who will smash them, they just may end up not having any defenders. The hard left wants to use antitrust law to break up companies like Google and many on the hard right agree. If Trump doesn’t do it, the next D President will.


      Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

      • Republican Michigander September 1, 2017 at 12:44 pm

        “”” The hard left wants to use antitrust law to break up companies like Google and many on the hard right agree. If Trump doesn’t do it, the next D President will.””

        I’ve long supported sending Teddy Roosevelt’s trustbusters against Silicon Valley. I’m no Bernie guy, but I despise the corporate left and the power it welds.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • jncca August 31, 2017 at 7:51 pm

    via Twitter: IL St. Rep. Brandon Phelps (D) resigning due to health issues. This is a red district, correct?


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • davybaby August 31, 2017 at 8:09 pm

      A relative of Congressman David Phelps (D-IL, 1998-2002)? David Phelps was the designated victim when Illinois lost a seat in ’02.

    • fatcathobbes August 31, 2017 at 8:12 pm

      Very red but historically D. Until last year, Dems held the Senate seat and both of the nested House seats. And yes, he’s David’s nephew.

    • shamlet September 1, 2017 at 9:48 am

      Illinois appoints legislative replacements IIRC, so no partisan change until 2018.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • CTIronman August 31, 2017 at 8:23 pm

    CTGov. Comptroller Kevin Lembo, thought to be D front runner, abruptly stood down and announced for reelection. All eyes on LG Nancy Wyman now as to her 18 plans

    • Vosmyorka August 31, 2017 at 10:16 pm

      Democrats seem to be quite gun-shy about entering this race, while Republicans have crowded in. Considering the unpopularity of Democratic Governors, popularity of Republican Governors, and Trump holding up better (most of the state-level polls I’ve seen suggest New England might be the only region of the country where Trump’s approval is pretty much still tracking with the amounts of support he got in the general election), and the general divorce between federal and statewide races, I can see New England as a rare Republican bright spot in 2018 (sweeping all 6 Governorships is probably not out of the question, and I think ME-2 will probably be defended successfully), though there are few competitive congressional races and it won’t really change that dynamic.


      Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

      • CTIronman August 31, 2017 at 10:35 pm

        Wonder if they make the 2nd run at getting TK Jr into the race?

  • rdelbov August 31, 2017 at 8:40 pm

    Not a surprise but a congressional candidate seems to abuse free mail perk!

    https://lasvegassun.com/news/2017/aug/31/california-taxpayers-fund-legislative-mailings/

    Seems over the time to me. Time for a rematch in 2018? If I lost to him I would try again.

  • rdelbov August 31, 2017 at 10:08 pm

    Alito has stayed the court redraw of Texas house seats

    http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/U-S-Supreme-Court-stays-House-redistricting-order-12165699.php

    This is the 9 house seat redraw order–It is a minor minor redraw so one wonders why the bother!

    • Jon September 1, 2017 at 6:11 pm

      What the Texas plaintiffs are really after is a court order that places them back under section 5 for twenty years (plus/minus a few) with them caring much more about 2020s redistricting than post 2030. Similar to how via court order Arkansas got opted-in to section 5 for a decade or two before dropping back off.
      If Trump is reelected, it’s just more paperwork, but plaintiffs are also assuming that the D candidate will win in 2020.


      45, M, MO-02

  • Daniel Surman September 1, 2017 at 1:15 am

    TX-Leg: Two retirements in the state House. First is State Rep. Jodie Laubenberg of Collin County, second is State Rep. Larry Gonzalezsof Round Rock. Laubenberg had a lower-tier committee chairmanship and occasionally voted with the more conservative members. Gonzales was another committee chairman more closely allied with leadership.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/31/state-rep-jodie-laubenberg-not-running-re-election/

    https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/30/state-rep-larry-gonzales-not-running-re-election/


    R, TX-14

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