Norway Parliamentary Elections Liveblog

7:22 PM ET: It doesn’t look like we’re going to get any more numbers tonight, the final votes will be counted tomorrow. Not much will change, but the exact distribution and which party gets adjustment seats where is still to be seen. Maybe a couple of seats will change hands, but the balance will remain roughly what it is now: 89-80. Solberg will continue as Prime Minister for now, but may face even more desperate Christian Democrats and whiny Liberals in the coming four years and may (at least she should) turn to Center for a majority in some cases. Støre vowed to be a constructive opposition leader, but the previous term showed Labor to be very difficult to work with; a change would be very welcome, but I’m not holding my breath. Signing off!

7:00 PM ET: Representatives in Stortinget, based on the continuously updated prognosis from the Norwegian Directory of Elections (94.7% of votes counted):
Conservative: 45, Progress: 28, Liberal: 8, Chr. Dem: 8. Sum: 89
Labor: 49, Center: 18, Socialists: 11, Greens: 1, Red: 1. Sum: 80

It’s clear now that the Liberals have made the cutoff, and will have 7-8 MPs, about the same as the Christian Democrats. If the current four parties are going to govern like they have, things will get even more difficult since they now need both the two small parties to support them. Solberg should make an effort to give Center a few billions more to the districts and get their votes on immigration and defense and thereby get a working majority on pretty much everything. The question is, does she have the guts and brains? Probably not.

6:40 PM ET: Representatives in Stortinget, based on the continuously updated prognosis from the Norwegian Directory of Elections (93.2% of votes counted):
Conservative: 45, Progress: 28, Liberal: 8, Chr. Dem: 8. Sum: 89
Labor: 49, Center: 18, Socialists: 11, Greens: 1, Red: 1. Sum: 80

There’s an insanely stupid story out of Norway’s second city, Bergen tonight. They have barely started counting yet, since the votes were delayed by heavy laying of asphalt in the streets, due to the city hosting the world championship in cycling. Facepalm.

6:20 PM ET: Representatives in Stortinget, based on the continuously updated prognosis from the Norwegian Directory of Elections (9. % of votes counted):
Conservative: 45, Progress: 28, Liberal: 7, Chr. Dem: 8. Sum: 88
Labor: 49, Center: 19, Socialists: 11, Greens: 1, Red: 1. Sum: 81

The two most likely candidates to run for leader of the Labor Party if Støre resigns, is former Secretary of Industry Trond Giske and former Secretary of Culture Hadia Tajik. Giske is a very slippery eel and has traditionally been considered to be on the left and he’s a former leader of the youth wing, who are much more radical than the party. But he has the ability to connect with voters, he’s probably the best debater the party has and he’s not stupid enough to go full Corbyn if he’s chosen. Tajik is the daughter of Pakistani immigrants, and nominally Muslim but in reality, she’s secular. She’s still young and not a great debater, too many rehearsed phrases. So probably Giske, if the party know what’s good for them. On the other hand, he’s got so many skeletons from his time as leader of the youth wing, that we might see some other candidates here too.

6:00 PM ET: Representatives in Stortinget, based on the continuously updated prognosis from the Norwegian Directory of Elections (85.4% of votes counted):
Conservative: 46, Progress: 28, Liberal: 7, Chr. Dem: 8. Sum: 89
Labor: 49, Center: 19, Socialists: 10, Greens: 1, Red: 1. Sum: 80

The Liberals and the Chr. Dems are both looking at a result of just above the 4% cutoff right now. The Liberals must come to terms with the fact that they were only saved (if indeed they are) by squishy Conservatives voting tactically this time. The Christian Democrats should just crawl away and die already and be absorbed by the Conservatives, Progress, Liberals and Center. Støre just gave a concession speech and vowed to soldier on for four more years, something I strongly doubt.

5:40 PM ET: Representatives in Stortinget, based on the continuously updated prognosis from the Norwegian Directory of Elections (83.6% of votes counted):
Conservative: 45, Progress: 28, Liberal: 8, Chr. Dem: 8. Sum: 89
Labor: 49, Center: 18, Socialists: 11, Greens: 1, Red: 1. Sum: 80

There’s already some speculation about how long Støre can lead Labor if this is the final result. A center-right government hasn’t been reelected since 1985, and they were felled after a year by Progress, which was a tiny protest movement back then.

5:20 PM ET: Representatives in Stortinget, based on the continuously updated prognosis from the Norwegian Directory of Elections (80.3% of votes counted):
Conservative: 45, Progress: 28, Liberal: 7, Chr. Dem: 8. Sum: 88
Labor: 50, Center: 18, Socialists: 11, Greens: 1, Red: 1. Sum: 81

Friends who are watching some of the very conservative (for Norway) areas of western Oslo and the neighboring, wealthy municipalities of Asker and Bærum say there’s a lot of tactical voting from Conservatives in favor of the Liberals. That’s what’s saving them from dipping below the 4% cutoff, thereby possibly saving the Solberg government.

5:00 PM ET: Representatives in Stortinget, based on the continuously updated prognosis from the Norwegian Directory of Elections (74.6% of votes counted):
Conservative: 44, Progress: 28, Liberal: 7, Chr. Dem: 8. Sum: 87
Labor: 51, Center: 18, Socialists: 11, Greens: 1, Red: 1. Sum: 82

4:40 PM ET: Representatives in Stortinget, based on the continuously updated prognosis from the Norwegian Directory of Elections (68.1% of votes counted):
Conservative: 45, Progress: 28, Liberal: 7, Chr. Dem: 8. Sum: 88
Labor: 49, Center: 19, Socialists: 11, Greens: 1, Red: 1. Sum: 81

Liberals still very close to the cutoff. This could still change.

4:20 PM ET: Representatives, based on the continuously updated prognosis from the Norwegian Directory of Elections (60.2% of votes counted):
Conservative: 45, Progress: 28, Liberal: 7, Chr. Dem: 8. Sum: 88
Labor: 50, Center: 18, Socialists: 11, Greens: 1, Red: 1. Sum: 81
The Christian Democrats at below 5% are seeing their worst result since WWII, while the Liberals could still fall under 4%. Both the Greens and Red looks to be safely below – in which case the Liberals’ adjustment seats will be distributed on both the right and left; probably a net difference of 2 seats, so the Conservative majority should hold for now. Labor at 27.5% is also disastrous, but not quite as horrible as some polls had shown beforehand

4:00 PM ET: Representatives, based on the continuously updated prognosis from the Norwegian Directory of Elections (46.7% of votes counted): Conservative: 46, Progress: 28, Liberal: 7, Chr. Dem: 8. Sum: 89
Labor: 49, Center: 18, Socialists: 11, Greens: 1, Red: 1. Sum: 80

3:43 PM ET: Representatives, based on the continuously updated prognosis from the Norwegian Directory of Elections:
Conservative: 45, Progress: 29, Liberal: 7 (above the cut!), Chr. Dem: 8. Sum: 89
Labor: 49, Center: 18, Socialists: 11, Greens: 1, Red: 1. Sum: 80

3:25 PM ET: The latest prognosis from the Directorate is 86 for the current Govt, 83 for the opposition parties. But that’s with the Liberals barely NOT making the cutoff. If they make 4%, the majority will be safe.

3:21 PM ET: As mentioned in my preview, this will come down to who makes the 4% cutoff for adjustment seats. If the Liberals and the Christian Democrats fall below, and especially if the Greens climb above, they’re toast.

3:17 PM ET: VG’s Election Day poll:

Conservative: 24.2

Progress: 14.7

Liberal: 5.4

Chr. Dem: 4.8

Reps: 88

 

Labor: 26.6

Center: 9.8

Socialists: 6

Greens: 3.8

Red: 3.1

Reps: 81

3:10 PM ET: The prognosis and the poll all show 4 more years for the current Government.

3:00 ET: Welcome to this liveblog for the 2017 Parliamentary elections in Norway. There will actually NOT be separate Election Day polls tonight by the two national TV companies, but rather this Election Day prognosis from the Norwegian Directorate of Elections, based on the number of early votes, which will largely have been counted at 3PM. The State Broadcasting Company (NRK) is using this prognosis unfiltered, while the other broadcaster, TV2 is using the same numbers, but running them through their own model. There will also be one traditional poll, taken for Norway’s largest newspaper VG; the results should be here.

You can also follow the Directorate’s official vote-counting in English at the same address as above; just choose English for language (or “språk” as the Norwegian webpage so helpfully announces… in Norwegian).

Tonight, look especially for the results from Gjerdrum municipality in Akershus County; they’ve been among the top two predictors of the national results in the last three elections. Other municipalities to watch are neighboring Sørum in Akershus, Risør and Tvedestrand municipalities in Aust-Agder County and the city of Bodø in Nordland County.

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9 Comments

  • Lucas Black September 11, 2017 at 3:15 pm

    Thanks for the info on this. Very interesting.

  • Vosmyorka September 11, 2017 at 3:33 pm

    Is there a way for us to see where the remaining votes are? If it’s from weak KrF areas, that would be cause for concern, but otherwise it seems like the majority is fine. Unfortunately for the left V and MDG seem to be strong in pretty much the same areas, so if MDG does make it over the threshold it seems likely (to me, a novice observer of Norwegian politics) that V logically should as well, in which case Solberg is reelected anyway.

    In the worst case scenario (KrF and V under, MDG over), no chance of Sp hating Støre enough that they back Solberg anyway, especially in the face of what is clearly a terrible performance for Ap?


    Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

  • Jon Henrik Gilhuus September 11, 2017 at 3:41 pm

    The prognosis should take geography into account, otherwise you would need to look at the respective 430-something municipality results… And the only way I could see Center not backing a new Støre government would be if they would be too dependent upon the Greens, whom Center hate with a passion.


    The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
    - P.J. O'Rourke

  • GerGOP September 11, 2017 at 5:30 pm

    Very happy to see these Results!

    • Jon Henrik Gilhuus September 11, 2017 at 5:35 pm

      Not half as happy as I am!


      The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
      - P.J. O'Rourke

      • GerGOP September 12, 2017 at 12:07 am

        You dont Sound too happy in the liveblog. 😀

        • Jon Henrik Gilhuus September 12, 2017 at 12:22 am

          It’s not that I’m euphoric about this govt being reelected, it’s that I feel great relief that the country doesn’t have to depend upon the Greens and the commies to have a functioning government.


          The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
          - P.J. O'Rourke

  • MatSUTK September 12, 2017 at 10:26 am

    I don’t have anything to add but than you for doing this. The ability to follow international elections on this site has raised my interest in world governments and has been one of my favorite features.

    • californianintexas September 12, 2017 at 3:12 pm

      I like seeing what’s going on around the world too. My interest in international elections began shortly after I met my husband, when he voted in the presidential election in Brazil in 2006.


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

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