Political Roundup for September 12th, 2017

It’s Primary Day in NY! Check out our preview HERE and check back with us tonight at 7:30pm ET for our election results liveblog!

Governor:

MN-Gov: Throw another name into the crowded GOP gubernatorial great mentioner. State Sen. Julie Rosen (R) confirmed she is considering a bid for governor.

Senate:

AL-Sen: Emerson has Roy Moore leading appointed Sen. Luther Strange by a 40% to 26% margin ahead of the September 26th GOP runoff. Emerson polled the general election as well and found Moore leading Democrat Doug Jones by a very narrow 44% to 40% margin.

MI-Sen: Kid Rock took to Facebook to fire back at Rev. Al “Slim Shady” Sharpton after Sharpton’s extortion protest scam operation National Action Network announced they would protest upcoming Kid Rock concerts. Kid Rock wrote “I love black people”, “Sam Riddle is a piece of sh*t criminal” and encouraged everyone to Google him, “F*ck ANYONE who takes a knee or sits during our national anthem!”, that the Tweet gloating about Al Sharpton’s daughter getting arrested for assaulting a cab driver did not come from him and the story was “fake news” and that “I can’t wait to rock everyone’s socks off at LCA the next few weeks!”. Oh, yeah this will be a fun senate campaign if he runs!

ND-Sen: Border States Electric CEO Tammy Miller (R) is considering a run for Senate against Democrat Sen. Heidi  Heitkamp. Miller has been heavily recruited by North Dakota GOP officials for weeks now but still has not made up her mind about running. State Senator Tom Campbell (R) is officially in the race and campaigning hard. Rep.  Kevin Cramer (R) is considering a run as well. State Rep. Rick Becker (R), former Congressman Rick Berg (R), and State Board of Higher Education member Kathy Neset (R) are also contemplating running for Senate. Miller is reportedly close with former Rep. Rick Berg so if she runs for Senate chance are Berg will not be seeking a rematch with Heitkamp.

NV-Sen: Donald Trump’s former White House chief strategist Stephen Bannon has met with perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian (R) and promised him his full backing in his primary with Sen. Dean Heller (R).

TN-Sen: Sen. Bob Corker (R) is contemplating his future and is considering maybe retiring in 2018. Corker is the Chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee and was once considered for a spot in President Trump’s cabinet. Since then Corker’s had a falling out with Trump. Corker has faced questions from the Feds about possible insider trading regarding his investments in Tennessee-based REIT, CBL & Associates but since that story broke in early 2016 not much more has come out about it. Corker is sitting on more than $7 million in cash in his campaign account so he either has plenty of money on hand to fund his re-election or pay for his legal bills or a great slush fund for his next career as a lobbyist.

UT-Sen: If Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) decides to retire in 2018 sources say that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) will run for his senate seat.

WI-Sen: Wisconsin state Sen. Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) will not run for US Senate vs Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and will back state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) instead.

House:

MI-6: #FakeNews alert!!! Rep. Fred Upton (R) denies “The Failing New York Times” #FakeNews “report” and insists he has no plans to retire in 2018.

MI-11: In case you missed it, two term Rep. Dave Trott (R) will retire and will not seek re-election in 2018.

NJ-2: Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) confirms to The Hill that he will seek re-election in 2018. Now let’s start the countdown until state Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D) confirms he will not challenge Rep. Lobiondo.

PA-7: DelCo GOP fans can rest easy as Rep. Pat Meehan (R) confirms that he is not the the retirement watch list and that he will seek re-election in 2018.

PA-10: When Rep. Tom Marino takes over as Drug Czar local party GOP officials will pick the GOP candidate for the special election. Former president of the Pennsylvania Farm Bureau and former chairman of Nationwide Mutual Insurance Keith Eckel (R) looks like the favorite to get the GOP nomination. Eckel is 70 years old. If Eckel passes Marino’s district director David Weber is also thought to be a likely candidate.

State, Local & Other:

NV-Lt Gov: Former two-term secretary of state Ross Miller (D) will most likely not run for Lt. Governor and will most likely defer to former state Treasurer Kate Marshall (D).

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107 Comments

  • MosheM September 12, 2017 at 6:39 am

    Went to vote. There was no Republican primary… I thought some no-name was running against Malliotakis.

    In NY, there is no option to write in without someone filing for it. So there is no primary.


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Manhatlibertarian September 12, 2017 at 12:29 pm

      There was a guy named Roque de la Fuente, a Cal millionaire who ran in Dem presidential primaries in 2016 but moved to NYC and wanted to run as a Repub for mayor. But Malliotakis successfully challenged a number of signatures on his primary petitions and knocked him off the ballot, so she has no opponent in the GOP mayoral primary.

  • TheWizardOf144 September 12, 2017 at 6:46 am

    There is some talk of Joe Peters jumping into PA 10 instead of PA 11 (he lives right on the district border). He’s the most serious threat to Dan Meuser at the moment so, I could see the party bosses giving him the nod to clear the path for Meuser.

    • edtorres04 September 12, 2017 at 7:36 am

      Didn’t you propose this to Peters? If so, good move. He makes this safe R, assuming it wasn’t already Safe R.

      • TheWizardOf144 September 12, 2017 at 9:27 am

        I talked to one of Joe’s people about it. It’s now being bandied about. Funny how that works. I’m personally a fan of Bloom for the 11th but I realize his odds are long.

  • RRR September 12, 2017 at 8:44 am

    After introducing himself as a Catholic and saying that, for most Catholics, Christmas comes on December 25th, “Christmas Day is coming for me on January 16th when this guy [Christie] is out.” – Mayor Don Guardian at the opening of a conference I’m attending in Atlantic City.


    PA-02 via IL-09/NY-07; Bronxville Test conservative
    Steve Litzow for Congress!

  • gladstone September 12, 2017 at 9:19 am

    In 2012 Roy Moore won by a bit less than 52-48 over his Democratic opponent while Obama was getting only 38%. I don’t think Moore can lose the general, but precisely for that reason a lot of Republican leaning voters are likely to either sit it out or cast protest votes for Jones. So I could see it being a single digit race in the end(though probably at the higher end of that range, say 52-45 or so).

    • gladstone September 12, 2017 at 9:26 am

      Goes without saying that a Democrat getting within single digits in an Alabama Senate race will be spun as a sign of a national wave when in fact it is what happens most of the time when Roy Moore runs statewide.

    • TennesseeMike September 12, 2017 at 11:36 am

      Strange has nearly identical numbers to Moore in a general election according to the Emerson poll. So are Moore voters sitting it out? A few would but I think this poll is also off.


      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

      • MikeFL September 12, 2017 at 11:53 am

        I would assume that you’d end up having more Strange/Jones voters in a matchup with Moore than Moore/Jones in a Strange matchup due to how polarizing Moore is, but this is Alabama. Moore wins even if it ends up being a single digit race.


        26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

        • TennesseeMike September 12, 2017 at 12:00 pm

          Yes, I agree with you. That’s why I think the poll is off. Strange should have a bigger lead than Moore over Jones but this poll doesn’t show it.


          TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

  • RRR September 12, 2017 at 9:24 am

    Ted Cruz’s account liked a porn video yesterday on Twitter…

    https://apple.news/AxGnwOxRAQlCRt9V9KWMUww


    PA-02 via IL-09/NY-07; Bronxville Test conservative
    Steve Litzow for Congress!

    • Midnight901 September 12, 2017 at 9:49 am

      More likely some staffer in charge of Ted Cruz’s account.

      • HS September 12, 2017 at 12:32 pm

        Well, yes. However, when Sen. Kid Rock comes in, we can expect all sorts of fun tweets by him.

      • segmentation_fault September 12, 2017 at 12:48 pm

        Why is that more likely?


        core dumped

        • Son_of_the_South September 12, 2017 at 1:27 pm

          Because politicians rarely run their own twitter accounts at the federal level


          23, R, TN-08
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • zbigreddogz September 12, 2017 at 3:47 pm

            Correct.

            Pretty much, Ben Sasse runs his personal account. Justin Amash too.

            Don’t think any others do.

  • GerGOP September 12, 2017 at 9:32 am

    Germany Federal Elections:
    It’s clear as day that the CDU/CSU will finish 1st and the SPD 2nd. But the race for the third spot in terms of raw numbers of votes is the really interesting one with FDP, Linke and AfD vying for this coveted result. Why? Because it would determine who the nominal leader of the opposition (the first one to respond after the government has spoken in parliament) would be if CDU/CSU and SPD were to form a third Grand Coalition. That’s an unlikely outcome, but the race for #3 is very interesting nevertheless.

    Merkel attended the one and only televised townhall event yesterday, where she was asked questions by citizens for about an hour. There was a moment which is being very underreported in all but the conservative news media: An 18 years old woman with down syndrom asked her the question, why down syndrom is still being treated as a viable indication for late term abortion, up to a few days before giving birth. She ended her question with with the plea “I want to leave and not be aborted.” Merkel was visibly moved by the woman’s question – which is something you don’t normally see or expect from her. She took a second to get back her composure before saying that she would love to change the law accordingly, but that there is no majority in parliament for that. She mentioned that she and her CoS fought to implement mandatory counseling and a three days waiting period before an abortion in such a case, but that this is as far as they could go at that time. She asked the woman to continue telling her story. I really liked this moment in what was a pretty dull affair.

    • Red Oaks September 12, 2017 at 9:42 am

      That’s an interesting story about Merkel.

      On the issue of possible coalitions, is there any chance of a minority government/hung parliament? They happen in places like the Canada and the U.K. but seem to be taboo in Germany.


      MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

      • GerGOP September 12, 2017 at 10:33 am

        No Chance whatsoever. It has never happened since 1949 and the risk averse Merkel wont be the one to do it. And there is no logical silent majority Partner, either. The AfD will just Block everything out of spite.

        On AfD, there is another highly interesting point: it has always been that the largest Opposition Party gets to appoint the Chair(! Wtf?) of the Budget Committee. There are already talks of altering the rules on Day 1 to prevent the AfD from getting it, if they come in third.
        The now-last Parliament already changed the rules in another regard: it’s always been Tradition, that the oldest member of Parliament would function as President until the election of the New one. The AfD would propably have claimed this title, but they changed it from oldest to longest serving. A freaking joke, if you ask me…

        • Lucas Black September 12, 2017 at 1:40 pm

          Didn’t they change a bunch of rules to screw the Sweden Democrats in the same way?

  • Red Oaks September 12, 2017 at 9:35 am

    I just went on a 12 day vacation to England and am happy to report that American politics were barely noticeable there. Aside from hurricane coverage the newspapers and TV news didn’t seem that interested in the US during that time. The anniversary of 9-11 received only light mention too. Finally, the many local people I spoke to were curious about the US and my life in it but had no questions about Trump, Washington DC, or public policy. It was a nice break from politics for a while.

    By contrast Canadians seem to care a little too much about about the US. I drove into Canada and flew through Windsor and Toronto both going to London and coming back. CNN is widely shown on the televisions in the airports and even the Canadian news networks focused a surprisingly large amount of coverage on things like pending US tax reform bills. Fellow passengers in the terminals who clearly appeared to be Canadians joked about Trump and fake news multiple times. This is admittedly a small sample but it was striking in comparison to my time in the U.K.


    MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

    • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 12:01 pm

      I’d be more concerned if Vancouver or Edmonton was obsessed with the the US. I’ve always felt Toronto was like a really clean US city.

      • Izengabe September 12, 2017 at 12:27 pm

        Toronto is south of both Portland, ME and Portland, OR so it should feel more American.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • buckeyes95 September 12, 2017 at 1:19 pm

      Canada’s economy really depends on American imports and exports, so it isn’t too surprising that they’d be much more concerned with our politics since our internal politics could have a huge effect on their country, especially with everything Trump has said about renegotiating trade deals.


      R in OH-12

      • Red Oaks September 12, 2017 at 1:39 pm

        Sure, but this goes beyond just a reasonable keeping your eyes out for what goes on south of the border. American news would sometimes be treated as the lead story over anything actually going on in Canada.

        Minor tangent – although I have found the City of Toronto to be clean and well kept up before, Pearson Airport was a pretty bad experience all around – mazelike and difficult to get to the right gate, poor food selections near the gate, annoying forced bilingualism everywhere, and the only bad Tim Hortons I have ever been to. I did get a good price on the flight due to a favorable currency exchange rate though.


        MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

        • buckeyes95 September 12, 2017 at 3:24 pm

          To be fair, Canada often doesn’t have a whole lot going on that would trump American news, sometimes news from America really is the biggest thing going on in Canada. Basically anytime some American politician with some amount of power mentions NAFTA it’s big news in Canada because it is so important to the economy. This isn’t anything new, Canada has been very, very aware of American politics since before confederation because it is so influential on politics there.


          R in OH-12

        • Jon September 12, 2017 at 6:29 pm

          Good luck on your flights; a Canadian youtuber I follow frequently has problems with Air Canada. On his latest trip to Europe, on the way back they left the equivalent of an entire cart of luggage in Toronto instead of transferring it onto his plane (~ 30 passengers affected on the last leg of his flight who came from a wide variety of first legs.) The time before that on the way out to San Francisco, his flight was 3 hours late due to the pilot having trouble clearing immigration.


          45, M, MO-02

  • cer September 12, 2017 at 9:47 am

    WH COS Kelly strikes back against sleazy Rep. Luis Gutierrez(IL). It was rather epic.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/john-kelly-rebukes-luis-gutierrez-lawmakers-who-have-almost-no-responsibility/article/2634037


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Left Coast Libertarian September 12, 2017 at 10:20 am

    I noticed a post from TEKZILLA at the end of yesterday’s thread

    “Number of Democratic candidates running, Act Blue fundraising, Key Republican Retirements, Generic Ballot Polling etc.
    Sure, no sign at all. Gotcha.”

    Setting aside his snarkiness, he doesn’t have much here. I’ve never seen anything correlating the number of Democratic candidates running and Democratic success. Strong fundraising isn’t an indicator of much. Every cycle since 2010 Democrats have said they’d do well because their fundraising is strong. We all know how Clinton and the Democrats raised a lot more than Trump and the Republicans in 2016.

    He does specify Act Blue fundraising. I assume that’s stronger than it’s ever been but I don’t see how that correlates with success better than other Democratic fundraising. There’s a trend with Democrats to supporting grassroots progressive groups spurred on by the Sanders campaign.

    There really aren’t many key Republican retirements. Here are the retirement numbers since 2006

    Here are the numbers since 2006
    2006: 18R, 9D
    2008: 27R, 6D
    2010: 20R, 17D
    2012: 19R, 22D
    2014: 25R, 16D
    2016: 25R, 18D

    There have been 17 Republican retirements so far. As we can see above the number of Republican retirements doesn’t correlate well with a strong or weak environment for the GOP. Only 2 of the retirements have been in districts Clinton won. That seems awfully low.

    The generic ballot is strong for Democrats. That is a good sign, but not everything. Democrats led on the generic ballot for most of the last cycle, often by 4-6 points.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2016_generic_congressional_vote-5279.html

    They led for most of the cycle in 2014 and were spanking Republicans in October 2013 due to the government shutdown.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

    • rdelbov September 12, 2017 at 10:31 am

      Yup I agree with LCL–mostly wishful thinking on the D posters here. IMO economic news were be the determining factor in 2018. If the economy is about what where it is right now the GOP could scrap by with 10 or fewer seats being lost.

      IMO the lack of a winning message for the Ds hurts them more then the President’s negative ratings hurt the GOP.

      • Tekzilla September 12, 2017 at 11:09 am

        You mean the same economy thats extremely similar to the one we had in 2014?


        36/M/NY-01 (D)

        • rdelbov September 12, 2017 at 12:31 pm

          Tek

          I am not sure the GOP will get to 2014 numbers-best showing since 1946-but I like your thinking.

    • cer September 12, 2017 at 10:32 am

      What Tek and other Dems seem to forget, the GOP will probably find strong Republicans to defend those seats. The Dems also have a few problems of their own, but I don’t want to interrupt his narrative too much. 😉


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Tekzilla September 12, 2017 at 11:08 am

      This isn’t even really worth replying to since you seem to prove my point and continue to be dismissive, But whatever, I’ll spend the time. CER said there was NO sign, so even if one of these is right his point is laughably off.

      1. Act Blue fundraising is setting records, that signals grassroots engagement that was not there in 2010-2016. Thats a good sign for Democrats. LCL makes the point that Clinton had a lot more money than HRC but we all know that money matters more in lower name ID races. Is it the end all be all? Absolutely not, but its still a good sign.

      2. More Democrats are running this early than in 2010-2016. Thats not a guarantee of success but its the kind of strategy that was successful in 2006-08. Again, a good sign for Democrats. You cannot win seats that you do not compete in. I know people like to joke about D’s trying to beat people like Pete Sessions, but you cannot beat them if you do not run someone.

      3. As far as retirements you’ll note we are still only in September of 2017, if you project out through early next year based on historical retirements Republicans will likely see around the same retirements as in 2008, maybe even more. Also note I said Key retirements not retirements in general.

      4. The generic ballot being really good for Democrats right now is a key sign. Can it change? Can polling be off? Of course, but we only have the data we have and that looks really promising for Democrats. A sign you might say of a potentially good cycle.

      Is any of this a guarantee of a great cycle for D’s ? No of course not. They could still end up with middling gains. But to say there are NO signs of it is patently absurd.

      Again we are talking about SIGNS here, signals, things to look at to try and parse what the environment will be like. Nothing is guaranteed but the signs are there for Ds.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • cer September 12, 2017 at 11:52 am

        You might want to check out the GOP fundraising efforts as well, which aren’t too bad either, but I know, the DEM narrative.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Left Coast Libertarian September 12, 2017 at 2:13 pm

        We don’t all know that money matters more in lower name ID races. What we do know is that usually a candidate needs to spend above a certain threshold to be taken seriously by the electorate. Once that’s reached having more money might be important in some races and not that important in others. I don’t if Act Blue is raising a significant amount of money in many races or if it’ll exceed previous years. If it does that’s good for Democrats. Yet if money equaled success Democrats would’ve done better in previous cycles. In those cycles the DCCC and outside groups spent heavily.

        Democrats heavily outspent Republicans in the GA-6 race and they didn’t win that. They didn’t lose CA-49 in 2016 for lack of spending. They spent a lot.

        Perhaps I misinterpreted your more Democrats running statement. I took it as Darrell Issa is more likely to lose if he has seven Democrats running against him instead of two. I don’t see evidence for that. Yes, Democrats are better off if they run someone in every race that could be competitive. They did run a candidate in every district Clinton won except for Sessions’ district. So this isn’t like the Republicans in 2008 when they didn’t run anyone against a bunch of Democrats in Arkansas, Tennessee, and other friendly territory.

        Republicans had pretty much the same number of retirements in 2014 and 2016 as they had in 2008 and those retirements didn’t help the Democrats much in those years. I suspect you’re right that we’ll see another 8-10 Republican retirements. If there were another 20 that’d be unprecedented. I don’t think you can judge it based on where we are in the cycle.

        I acknowledge the generic ballot being good is a good sign for Democrats but with how poor polling has been the last few years it isn’t nearly as good a sign as it was in 2006 and 2008. As we see above, Democrats were well ahead in 2014 and 2016. Still, you’d rather have a 6 point lead in the generic ballot than a 2 point lead. It’s a sign, but not necessarily a great sign.

        What we need to acknowledge is that the traditional way of predicting elections has been upended. Trump and others like Sanders have changed the rules and we don’t know the new rules. What we do know is that the public associates Trump less with his party than any candidate has ever been associated with their party. His lack of popularity might not transfer.

        The conventional wisdom has been that Democrats need to convert white suburban voters who’ve traditionally voted Republican but don’t like Trump. They either voted Clinton or wish they did. They are a possibility, sure, but they have been voting for that same Republican congressman again and again. They’ve never liked the Democrats’ economic message and aren’t going to like the “soak the rich” and single payer message they’re getting now.

        On the other hand, the working class Trump supporters are likely more pliable. They’ve voted Democratic in the past and like congressional Republicans a lot less than the upscale suburban voters. If Trump keeps making deals with Pelosi his hardcore supporters might prefer Pelosi to Paul Ryan. Democrats might need to stop calling them racist, homophobic, and xenophobic for a little bit to win their votes back.

    • andyroo312 September 12, 2017 at 11:09 am

      The worst thing politically that could happen to Trump is Republicans holding both the House and Senate in 2018 (and of course continuing to do absolutely nothing).


      MA-7

      • GerGOP September 12, 2017 at 11:11 am

        This. So much.

      • cer September 12, 2017 at 11:54 am

        That is an odd narrative. If the GOP addresses tax reform and Obamacare, it could be a positive for Trump/GOP, NOT a negative.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 12:24 pm

          Since Mnuchin is now touting tax reform retroactive to 1/1/2017 I don’t know that we can assume much is going to get done. Then again I’ve never really thought much of this a real gamebreaker for the average taxpayer/voter. I’m not sure exactly how/why Obamacare is being discussed; doesn’t that have to be done in the next 3 weeks (and there’s not even votes scheduled)?

        • Tekzilla September 12, 2017 at 12:42 pm

          Why? Repeal efforts are unpopular and Tax Reform that eliminates the Mortgage and State deduction will surely be unpopular as well. Passing something may help with the base, but could solidify Indies against Rs.


          36/M/NY-01 (D)

          • cer September 12, 2017 at 12:52 pm

            Obamacare is also not that popular these days.

            The other thing that doesn’t help the Dem narrative is what is going on with Senator Menendez. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/corruption-trial-us-sen-bob-menendez-enters-3rd-49765974


            Conservative first, Republican second!

            • andyroo312 September 12, 2017 at 1:04 pm

              99 percent of the public isn’t paying attention to the Menendez trial.


              MA-7

              • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 1:17 pm

                Exactly, as discussed previously even people in the NY/NJ/CT tri-state area aren’t paying attention to Menendez. My latest haircut will have a greater impact on 2018 election results.

              • Izengabe September 12, 2017 at 1:26 pm

                Maybe these pictures will help the public pay attention:
                Getting these beauties visas was high on Menendez’s to-do list: aide
                http://nypost.com/2017/09/11/menendez-demaned-aide-get-visa-for-rich-docs-gal-pal-emails/


                Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                • andyroo312 September 12, 2017 at 1:44 pm

                  Doubt it. It’s great fodder for the New York Post but swing-ish state voters aren’t paying attention.


                  MA-7

              • cer September 12, 2017 at 3:06 pm

                You can talk to the MSM about that for not knowing what is going on.


                Conservative first, Republican second!

                • andyroo312 September 12, 2017 at 3:32 pm

                  They do. It’s just that covering some low-name rec U.S. Senator isn’t going to generate massive ratings for them.


                  MA-7

            • Tekzilla September 12, 2017 at 1:50 pm

              Huh? Obamacare is literally the most popular its ever been and is in the net positive.


              36/M/NY-01 (D)

              • cer September 12, 2017 at 3:07 pm

                No it’s not…


                Conservative first, Republican second!

              • rdelbov September 12, 2017 at 3:12 pm

                I can’t find anyone who thinks their Obamacare insurance premiums are “just right”. I have heard any business people saying “Obamacare has really worked for my business”. I believe somewhere around 99% of voters believe that something needs to be done to improve some aspect of Obamacare. I know people who have Medicare/Obamacare but can’t get a doctor’s appointment.

                I don’t the desire of many people not to see Obamacare completely repealed does not mean many many voters are unhappy with parts of it.

                • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 4:04 pm

                  People want better coverage and lower premiums. Feel free to resolve that 🙂

                  People have been complaining about the cost of healthcare forever. It now has a trendy name “Obamacare” and we’re in the Internet age but complaining about healthcare isn’t new and it isn’t really that partisan. But seriously, people want lower premiums and more things covered…it’s crazy to think there’s an actual solution. People want lower taxes and more defense spending, more education spending, more everything.

                  I Airbnb a room in my house. it’s around $40/night and it is just an air mattress in a private bedroom in the house I also live in yet. Yet I get negative reviews saying “it’s just an air mattress in a room.” I think to myself “what are these people complaining about, what do they expect for $40?” And then I answer myself…”this is America in 2017.” People aren’t logical.

                  • rdelbov September 12, 2017 at 4:24 pm

                    I tend to be very piratical in my politics. It has been a few years since I have been door to door but I am too far removed from people who still do it. I have a good sense, not perfect, how to frame arguments around politics. Here is my take on Obamacare/healthcare 2017/2018.

                    What D pol running in a Red district or Red state will say “I love Obamacare. I think it has worked great and I would not change a single thing about it”. So I ignore polls and slanted or un-slanted polling questions. In a practical political sense D polls only really embrace Obamacare in blue states and blue districts. In the rest of the states they dance around it.

                    I might add that in many many districts and states GOP candidates do repeal and replace or even repair Obamacare. So when Trump says “Obamacare is not working” and we need to fix it that is not vote losing idea. Except maybe in Oregon, California, Maryland and New York.

                    • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 4:40 pm

                      “Obamacare is not working” but therein lies the overall silliness. Is healthcare working? Was it better 10 years ago?
                      I always love the people who crow about “how much I used to love my healthcare plan” as it’s just loony. No one, I mean no one ran around loving their healthcare plan. People bragged about their car, phone, watch, sneakers, apartment…but never healthcare.

                      Poll questions that ask is Obamacare working are as pointless as questions that ask do you like govt health insurance? You could poll the healthcare question and every ridiculously partisan question would elicit 70% responses. Do you think healthcare should be more affordable…Yes. Do you think healthcare is more of a personal responsibility than a govt one…Yes. Do you think healthcare costs are too high…Yes. Do you think we should cut Medicare…No. Do you think we should cut Medicare part D…No. Do you think we should let old and sick people die in caves…No. And so on.

                      But none of that actually tells you anything. Both sides have talking points that sound great. The real question is of course “how much are you personally willing to sacrifice for XYZ”…we’ll never know the answer.

        • andyroo312 September 12, 2017 at 12:51 pm

          Obamacare repeal ain’t happening and most of the public doesn’t give a toot about tax reform.


          MA-7

      • Republican Michigander September 12, 2017 at 12:12 pm

        “”” (and of course continuing to do absolutely nothing).”””

        That’s the key part of the sentence right there. McConnell and a lesser extent Ryan need to get off their butts and get to work.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 12:06 pm

      The only people predicting gloom and doom for the GOP on this site for the last 6 months have been the GOP posters, not the Dem ones. I’ve spent considerable time arguing with GOP posters who think Dems will take the Senate (ND/IN/MT/MO/OH and so on) and get a large majority in the House and repeatedly just had to ask the basic question “What are you smoking?”

      Tek’s analysis of 2018 is much better than Republicans on here who seem to think 2018 is a GOP bloodbath as that is outright nonsense.

      • MikeFL September 12, 2017 at 12:12 pm

        I don’t think it’s going to be a bloodbath yet either, I was struggling to find seats I could shift over to the Dems, but was still having trouble getting the GOP down to the 220s. Unless there are a lot more retirements, I assume that’s where the GOP ends up in the House.


        26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

        • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 12:27 pm

          To paraphrase the old “it’s the economy, stupid” let’s say “it”s the maps, people.”

          The maps just make Dems getting to 220 in an off-year 2018 near-impossible. You’d need crazy minority turnout that just never materializes in mid-terms. Like never, as in that’s how 2010 and 2014 happened. Possible yes but less than 1% as of today.

          • rdelbov September 12, 2017 at 12:48 pm

            Absolutely the maps are critical. We defending seats (for the most part) that are favorable to the GOP. In addition we are going after senate seats that are in Trump/ Red States. Let me go a step further.

            1st the Ds have been touting candidate recruitment since forever and have really reached a peak of that talk since 2010. IMO many D candidates have read the press clippings in DC are foolishly making races in seats like KY6 or IN9. Okay we get the idea that VA10 will be competative but having 15 candidates run for the D nomination does not mean it is anymore of a challenge for Comstock then it already is.

            2nd I think economy provides relief for the Rs and why did it not for Ds in 2014? Historically turnout drops in midterms and that favors the Rs. If the economy soured for Trump then we might see a 1958/1974 scenario for the house GOP. So why does the same economy in 2014 not help the Ds. Well it was a six inch election and voters weary of Obama and the Ds. I don’t see that same weariness in 2018 unless the economy sours. Otherwise we see a blend of voters that turn out that will likely help the GOP keep the house.

            3rd yup money will help. Having house incumbents will help. Having Pelosi/Schumer will help the Rs. It is not like that majority of voters buy into the ultra leftish agenda of Warren/Pelosi. Heck Pelosi in 2016 fundraised in MN4/MN5 in a pair of appearances but did not show in MN3 or MN2. That is very telling.

          • krazen1211 September 12, 2017 at 3:37 pm

            I have to find the link, but there is some evidence that a growing economy benefits incumbent Presidents, but not really incumbent Congresses.

            • rdelbov September 12, 2017 at 4:00 pm

              I hate to say it depends but it does. I hate to really generalize about any particular election as so many factors come into play. I harp alot on 1970 and honestly the GOP did about okay that year but the economy was very weak that year. Yet the war and social issues as well as the fact that the political map was helpful to the GOP.

              We saw both in 2010 & 2014 that the economy was growing. In fact I have commented here numerous times-that without the decent economic growth the Ds would have really lost those years. I fully admit that 2nd qtr economic news was a yuge help to the Ds in those years.

              Saying that IMO nothing will change the fact that we will see 40 million fewer voters in 2018 then in 2016. Not to say the GOP will not suffer losses. If we lose moderate or indies it could be tough. Plus like 1970 its the battlefield. Come to think of it the group of senators up in 2018 were the same class from 1958/1964/1970/1994. Right now there are a ton of D senators running in Red and Purple states .

            • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 4:07 pm

              Oh maybe so but that I think tends to be in prior eras where the economy was more cyclical. The economy is growing for what like 9 consecutive years (or whatever) and there’s no catalyst to stop that for the foreseeable future. Given that economic growth isn’t leading to jobs the same way it did in the past I wouldn’t be surprised if such “rules” are broken in the future….at least somewhat.

              However the inverse I doubt will change…bad economies will always be bad for incumbents (duhh!).

              • krazen1211 September 12, 2017 at 4:26 pm

                Well, that’s true. The best example for the economy argument is 1994 I guess, in which the economy was doing fine (by pre 2000 standards, great by post 2001 standards). I think one explanation is that in a decent economy in a midterm people will vote on other things.

                One funny thing I am seeing in current data is that in 2016, median incomes barely surpassed their 1999 peak. There is a lagging indicator factor of course. The 1991 recession still stuck in voters minds in 1992 and perhaps the same thing happened in 2016.

                Higher senior turnout vs youth of course didn’t matter in 1994 or even 2002 and does now. I think that is underestimated.

                • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 4:48 pm

                  And I’d add-on 2000 somewhat further enhances your 1994 point but applied to a POTUS year. The economy was doing so well people weren’t even voting on the actual jobs economy but what to do with a surplus and how much they disliked Al Gore’s sighs. Arguing over a surplus…ahhh memories.

                  I think your point about senior turnout is well taken. It’s probably no surprise that 5 states that had higher % senior populations gave Trump a pretty big benefit (FL/WV/ME/PA/IA, etc.) compared to the 5 states with the lowest % senior population (UT/TX/GA/CO/CA). There’ s obviously more than just % senior population in play but it’s quite interesting.

                • rdelbov September 12, 2017 at 5:20 pm

                  K-nail on the head. I do note that tepid economy in 2010 and we see a huge GOP win. In 2012 there is a tepid economy and Obama gets re-election and Ds retain the senate.

      • Republican Michigander September 12, 2017 at 12:21 pm

        I think it’s too early to tell. There are a few factors of mixed views, but I’m not ready to call doom and gloom yet.
        1. Trump’s hardcore support is fired up – and organized.
        2. The D’s are fired up with nothing left to lose (like R’s – and most Independents – in 2010). The D’s were fired up beforehand in 2016, but they are organized now.
        3. The R’s – and D’s in office for the most part don’t have their crap together. The big question is who has the more (or less) of their crap together.

        It’s part 3 that will determine who gets the house. The big question is which group of voters stay home more, as it is an off year.

        The doom and gloom predictions are coming from three types of R leaning people, all who I think are unrepresentative of the general public and WANT doom and gloom.
        A. Kasich and very religious Cruz Republicans who want to see Trump punished and then come to the party’s “rescue” in rebuilding. Two different wings of the party, but much of the same group in some ways.
        B. Neoconservatives and Bush types for the same reason, but more because they are the swamp.
        C. Trump first people who dislike Paul Ryan about as much as the dems. (Breitbart types)

        I think these folks are over-represented in punditry, this site, establishment areas, and among those who work in the business.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • HS September 12, 2017 at 12:39 pm

        Well, yes, there are way too many Bill Paxton Pvt. Hudson on this website (on the GOP side). For those too young or not cultured enough to remember, in Aliens Paxton was always crying about being “doomed.” In the end, he did die, but some of the less pessimistic characters did survive (until the next movie).

        • Republican Michigander September 12, 2017 at 2:52 pm

          “”” Bill Paxton Pvt. Hudson on this website (on the GOP side). “””

          LOL. “What the F are we going to do now?! Game over, man!”


          MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • Son_of_the_South September 12, 2017 at 3:20 pm

          My father showed me the classics, so I at least am very familiar. I think you’ll find a decent percentage of my generation is as well.


          23, R, TN-08
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • prsteve11 September 12, 2017 at 2:39 pm

        Well said. The Dems are almost guaranteed to fail and recapturing the Senate while the House is going to be much harder for them than most seem to be able to admit.


        SC-03, Conservative Republican

        • HS September 12, 2017 at 5:38 pm

          I am not prepared to go that far. I think the Senate is safe because of the seats up. But I do think the Dems have a legitimate chance to win seats and possibly a majority in the House. However, I think is it way too early to know that, and just ridiculous to assume it is a slam dunk.

      • Greyhound September 12, 2017 at 3:52 pm

        Well, yeah. There is no one more invested in ensuring Trump is a failure than the Republican caste he deposed.


        R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

        • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 4:08 pm

          Oh I’ll disagree with that 🙂

      • Ryan_in_SEPA September 12, 2017 at 4:12 pm

        I tend to agree with this as well. One aspect of the 2006 wave that is often underestimated in hindsight was the Culture of Corruption mantra.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

        • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 5:15 pm

          Corruption certainly got John Sweeney/Mark Foley/Bob Ney specifically but probably took down some others by default.

          One of the more fascinating things I remember from that election (and I just had to double-check on Wikipedia) is Dems picked up 30 seats but 0 in Michigan. I just re-checked and see they picked up 0 in MI/NJ/MO/IL and just 1 each in CA/OH/TX (though TX is probably +2 but the 2nd was due to redrawn district).

          Meanwhile you have PA +4 (the “perhaps dummymander” finally came to pass), Az +2, CT+2, +3 IN, +2 IA, +2 NH and +3 in NY. So a lot of 2006 seems like the beginning of the New England re-alignment (and of course NH always swings with the wind). It also shows that for the most part the larger midwest states didn’t contribute at all, but IN was +3 which in hindsight is crazy.

          I don’t see the corruption in 2018 and the GOP maps are solid in places like PA and OH.

          • Republican Michigander September 12, 2017 at 5:44 pm

            Dems picked up plenty in MI in 2006 outside of the house and it set up 2008. It was one of the biggest disaster years here that we had since I followed politics, and part of the 1-2 punch with 2008. They took the state house with 58 seats. The almost took the state senate as well that year and would have outside of some strong R candidates and a bit of luck in the most difficult districts (Saginaw County, Muskegon County, Grand Rapids, Outer Wayne County, Eastern Oakland)

            We survived old MI-7, MI-8, MI-9, and MI-11 only because of either strong incumbents (Mike Rogers, Thad McCotter) or bad challengers (Nancy Skinner in MI-9), or both. Mark Schauer and Gary Peters saw the blood in the water (and got a big Pontiac turnout in 2008 for Peters) and finished the job in 2008 (although Walberg was strong enough to take the rematch). D’s had 67 seats in the state house after 2008, which may the 2010 near perfect storm massacre for the D’s (Granholm fatigue, tea party, Obamacare etc) that much painful for them.


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Conservative First September 12, 2017 at 10:33 am

    MI-Gov: AG Bill Schuette expected to (finally) announce today
    http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/michigan/2017/09/12/bill-schuette-run-governor/105527208/

    • Republican Michigander September 12, 2017 at 12:22 pm

      The state’s worst kept secret.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Izengabe September 12, 2017 at 12:38 pm

    VA-Gov: This is hilarious! Ralph Northam new ad tells viewers to go online and check out his tax plan… without, you know, actually having a tax plan on his web site:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-republicans-to-democrat-ralph-northam-wheres-your-tax-plan/2017/09/08/f95d7a86-949d-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html?utm_term=.96a67e073ee7


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • zbigreddogz September 12, 2017 at 3:51 pm

      Trump is toxic enough in NoVa that I still think Northam wins at the end of the day.

      That said, this is the kind of thing that sticks and loses you an election.

      • andyroo312 September 12, 2017 at 3:58 pm

        Yup. Northam by 49-46% sounds right to me.


        MA-7

      • Boehnerwasright September 12, 2017 at 6:01 pm

        This will move at best 100 votes. People especially swing voters (who are often low-information voters) don’t care about policy, just ask HRC about that.
        If you can make an incompetent lable stick that matters, but that is really hard to do against an elected offical who is part of an popular administration.

        I mean republicans all over the country talk about/hype up their non-existent tax plan, nobody would say thatis an problem. Just look at trump’s speeches on that topic.

    • Izengabe September 12, 2017 at 5:11 pm

      Gillespie is a good enough pol to be able to make a really hilarious commercial as a response to this.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • RogueBeaver September 12, 2017 at 12:54 pm

    NV-AG: Ford in. https://twitter.com/AaronDFordNV/status/907646374002302976


    QC/Blue Tory/M

  • cer September 12, 2017 at 4:32 pm

    WOW! “Seattle Mayor Ed Murray is resigning after a fifth child sex-abuse allegation.”

    http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-mayor-ed-murray-resigns-after-fifth-child-sex-abuse-allegation/?utm_content=buffer5ec8f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=owned_buffer_tw_m


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Son_of_the_South September 12, 2017 at 4:49 pm

      Whoa


      23, R, TN-08
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 5:00 pm

      To say “that’s for the best” is an understatement. Good grief/riddance.

    • californianintexas September 12, 2017 at 5:34 pm

      How the heck was he able to stay on after the other four?


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

      • Greyhound September 12, 2017 at 6:15 pm

        Basically no one’s taking his denials seriously anymore. “I did not have sexual relations with that 8-year-old” becomes less convincing every time you have to repeat it, and people have stopped giving him the benefit of the doubt.


        R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

        • jncca September 12, 2017 at 6:23 pm

          To be fair to Murray, I don’t think any of them were under 13. Still molestation and very wrong of course.


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • krazen1211 September 12, 2017 at 4:34 pm

    538 reading.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-polls-showing-daca-as-popular-even-among-republicans-dont-tell-the-whole-story/

    Trump’s Hardline Immigration Stance Got Him To The White House

    • rdw72777 September 12, 2017 at 4:56 pm

      DACA is to immigration reform what staying on your parents insurance until you’re 26 is to ACA. It’s no surprise that DACA being popular won’t lead to GOP supporting current immigration policy any more than staying on your parents insurance until you’re 26 will get GOP votes for continuation of current ACA.

      I suppose it might matter a little more if DACA applied to say 10 million instead of 800,000 but I imaging in many congressional districts and even some states there’s barely a handful of DACA constituents.

  • californianintexas September 12, 2017 at 5:35 pm

    Here’s an interesting read on ex-IL Gov Rod Blagojevich’s (D) first 5 years in prison, though it is very long. http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/October-2017/Blago-His-Life-in-Prison/


    34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • HS September 12, 2017 at 5:42 pm

      Hopefully, for his sake, he had a very large and tough boyfriend. Otherwise, I hear these places are downright dangerous.

    • Izengabe September 12, 2017 at 6:51 pm

      12 years in prison seems awfully harsh for what they got Blagojevich for. Patrick Fitzgerald was a bit of a media hound who targeted high profile cases for headlines. It took him two bites at the apple to get Blagojevich (his 1st trial the jury was hung on 23 charges). Was Blagojevich a crooked pol? Yes. But does his crimes really justify 12 years in prison? No. This just seems like selective prosecution to me.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • RogueBeaver September 12, 2017 at 6:36 pm

    MI-SEN: Kid Rock will probably announce his intentions tonight. https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/907733452967071750


    QC/Blue Tory/M

  • Manhatlibertarian September 12, 2017 at 6:56 pm

    Continuing with his outreach to Dems, Trump will have a bipartisan dinner tonight with 3 Repub Senators and 3 Dem Senators on tax reform. The 3 Red State Dems, Donnelly, Heitkamp and Manchin, refused to sign off on Schumer’s Dem tax principles letter. IMO Trump needs to woo the Dems, because with the narrow 52 vote GOP majority in the Senate, there is too much of a chance that at least three Repubs could break ranks for one reason or another and doom tax reform. So he has no choice but to pick off some centrist Dems.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/11/trump-democrats-tax-reform-dinner-242577

  • Republican Michigander September 12, 2017 at 7:05 pm

    MI – Attorney General Bill Schuette made it official. He’s running for Governor.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Boehnerwasright September 12, 2017 at 7:23 pm

      Least surprising news in a while.

  • RogueBeaver September 12, 2017 at 7:11 pm

    More MI-SEN: Upton seriously considering. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/fred-upton-encourages-senate-bid-speculation/article/2634202


    QC/Blue Tory/M

  • MosheM September 12, 2017 at 8:25 pm

    #SCOTUS grants stay of lower-court’s decision requiring Texas to redraw congressional maps over dissent by 4 justices


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • krazen1211 September 12, 2017 at 8:38 pm

      And that should be the ballgame on 2018.

      • rdelbov September 12, 2017 at 8:43 pm

        High court review is just about a given–especially since the current map has was largely written by the courts 2011/2013.

      • Jon September 12, 2017 at 11:50 pm

        Agreed, I’m not seeing all of the majority opinion, dissenting opinions, and concurring opinions being ready in time for SCOTUS to cancel the currently scheduled 2018 primary and reschedule at a later time with filing reopened even if someone who voted for the stay rules against one of the CDs or LDs.

        We can be positive that Thomas will write a concurring opinion on this. (As is typical it will be his opinion that VRA doesn’t cover redistricting at all and how he reached his decision on equal protection grounds.)


        45, M, MO-02

    • Jon September 12, 2017 at 11:35 pm

      At the same time, SCOTUS also granted the stay with regard to Texas State House seats; this also had dissent by the same 4 justices.

      Also, a couple hours before then Kennedy’s stay of the 9th circuit travel ban with regards to those whose only connection to the US was a resettlement agency was affirmed by the full court ; no dissents were filed.


      45, M, MO-02

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