Political Roundup for September 13, 2017

Last Night:

Bill DeBlasio (D) easily won renomination in NYC, while all NYC Council incumbents and essentially all non-incumbent establishment favorites prevailed.

In Charlotte, councilwoman Vi Lyles (D) ousted incumbent Jennifer Roberts (D) without a runoff. In Cleveland, incumbent Frank Jackson (D) and councilman Zack Reed (D) advanced. In Toledo, incumbent Paula Hicks-Hudson (D) and Lucas County Treasurer Wade Kapszukiewicz (D) advanced. Incumbents Byron Brown (D) in Buffalo and Lovely Warren (D) in Rochester were renominated.

In other NY Races, State Sen. George Latimer (D) won in Westchester-CE, county commissioner Laura Curran (D) won in Nassau-CE, and State Rep. Steve McLaughlin (R) narrowly won in Rensselaer-CE. In the biggest upset of the night, university police chief Larry Zacarese (R) beat State Sen. Phil Boyle (R) for Suffolk-Sheriff.

In legislative specials, Democrats picked up OK-LD-46 by a wide margin as well as a state house seat in NH. McGee (R) and Rehner (D) advanced in MS-LD-102, while O’Hara (R) won the nomination in OK-SD-37.

Senate:

MI-Sen: Rep. Fred Upton (R) is apparently quietly considering a run for the seat of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (R). Upton, a centrist from a purple seat in southwest Michigan, has been termed-out as Energy and Commerce chair but is not ready to retire. Upton could face a tough primary if Robert “Kid Rock” Ritchie (R) pulls the trigger on a run for this seat; however, if Ritchie stays out, Upton would be a strong favorite against the little-known Republicans in the race already.

VA-Sen: Former presidential candidate Carly Fiorina (R) will not run for the Senate seat of Tim Kaine (D). Prince William CE and self-hating Yankee Corey Stewart (R) now looks like the strong favorite for the nomination.

Governor:

AK-Gov, AK-LG: State Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R) surprisingly announced yesterday that he is ending his gubernatorial run due to an unspecified health condition. Ex-State Sen. Charlie Huggins (R), a former State Senate president who retired in 2016, stepped in the same day to fill the breach. State Rep. Mike Chenault (R) also filed to run for a spot on the GOP ticket, though he has left his options open for either a Governor or LG run in the shotgun-wedding primary. Dem-backed incumbent Bill Walker (I) may also face opposition from a Democrat like Ex-Sen. Mark Begich (D) or State Sen. Bill Wielechowski (D).

IL-Gov, IL-LG: After his prior choice of running mate, Chicago councilman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa (D), was forced to withdraw over his support for the anti-Israel BDS movement, Biss has now chosen State Rep. Litesa Wallace (D) of Rockford as his new LG choice. Wallace could be a way for Biss to curry some favor with State House Speaker Mike Madigan (D), who is thought to favor wealthy businessman JB Pritzker (D) in this crowded primary.

ME-Gov: Sen. Susan Collins (R) says she will decide on a run for Governor by the end of September. Collins would likely be a strong favorite in a general election if she were to run, but she may face difficulty from her right in the GOP primary.

MI-Gov: As expected, AG Bill Schuette (R) has launched his campaign for Governor. Schuette has had a long political career, beginning with a Congressional stint in the 80s, a Senate loss in 1990, a State Senate stint in the 90s and a judicial stint in the 2000s before two terms as AG. He is thought to be a slight front-runner in the GOP primary against antiestablishment conservative State Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R) and physician Jim Hines (R); Schuette’s most serious likely rival, LG Brian Calley (R), has not yet declared for this race but is widely though certain to run.

House:

NY-15: Outgoing NYC Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito (D) is rumored to be considering a run for this South Bronx-based Congressional seat, where incumbent Jose Serrano (D) is thought to be considering retirement. Mark-Viverito hails from Spanish Harlem in Manhattan, but has represented part of the Bronx. State Sen. Jose Serrano Jr. (D), State Rep. Michael Blake (D), and NYC Councilman Ritchie Torres (D) are thought to all be interested as well.

PA-11: 2016 AG candidate Joe Peters (R) is exploring an entry into this crowded primary for the Harrisburg-to-Lackawanna Valley red seat. Peters would join State Rep. Stephen Bloom (R), Corbett admin official Dan Meuser (R), and businessman Andrew Lewis (R) in the primary.

PA-15: Two new candidates are in this race. State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) will run for Congress, potentially creating a more establishment-friendly option to take on State Rep. Justin Simmons (R), whose entry into the race pushed Rep. Charlie Dent (R) out of seeking re-election. Lehigh County commissioner Bill Leiner (D) also announced a run, potentially giving Dems a credible option for the light-red Lehigh Valley open seat.

TN-6: Rep. Diane Black (R) is considering resigning her House seat early as she runs for Governor. If Black resigns quickly a special could be triggered for this deep-red central Tennessee seat. Former state Agriculture Commissioner John Rose (R) and State Rep. Judd Matheny (R) are in the race, and talking head Scottie Nell Hughes (R) is considering a run.

TX-32: Obama aide Lillian Salerno (D) has become the third former Obama admin official in the race, joining Colin Allred (D) and Ed Meier (D). Allred, a former NFL player, so far looks like the DCCC’s choice recruit to take on Rep. Pete Sessions (R) in this Hillary-won north Dallas seat.

WV-1: Attorney Ralph Baxter (D), who runs a large law firm based in San Francisco but “lives” in Wheeling, is set to announce a run against Rep. David McKinley (R) in this deep-red northern WV seat. Baxter has been mentioned for several races before but looks set to pull the trigger this cycle; he faces long odds as this historically-D seat has become more Republican up and down the ballot.

State & Local:

ID-AG: AG Lawrence Wasden (R) will run for re-election, and will not give up his seat to run for Governor or ID-1.

MA-LG: Obama White House aide Quentin Palfrey (D), who now works as an administrator at MIT, has become the first Democrat into this shotgun-wedding LG primary.

MO-Aud: Attorney and former university regent David Wasinger (R) will run for Auditor, entering the race after State House Speaker David Richardson (R) abruptly declined a bid. Local official Kristy Apprill (R) is also considering a run.

NV-AG: State Senate Majority Leader Aaron Ford (D) will run for AG, giving Dems a top-tier recruit for this seat, which is expected to be open as incumbent Adam Laxalt (R) is seen as near-certain to run for Governor. Laxalt’s top deputy, ex-State Rep. Wes Duncan (R), is likely to run for this seat.

DC-Mayor: AG Karl Racine (D) will not run for mayor, likely meaning that incumbent Muriel Bowser (D) will have a relatively easy ride to a second term next year.

Seattle-Mayor: Mayor Ed Murray (D) abruptly resigned yesterday after a fifth person, his cousin, accused him of prior sexual molestation when the cousin was a minor. Murray had declined to run for re-election after several others revealed underage sexual molestation allegations. The open seat election this November is between establishment liberal ex-US Attorney Jenny Durkan (D) and ultra-left city planner Cary Moon (D).

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120 Comments

  • edtorres04 September 13, 2017 at 7:57 am

    Kid Rock: wasn’t he supposed to make an announcement last night?

    • roguemapper September 13, 2017 at 8:06 am

      He did. He announced that he hates Nazis, Colin Kaepernick, single moms, and deadbeat dads.


      Dem NC-11

  • rdelbov September 13, 2017 at 8:03 am

    The Texas redistricting stay was huge for the GOP. The defendants in the case were pushing and the judges apparently were listening to various really pro-D maps.

    http://txredistricting.org/

    Basically the D/Hispanic groups were wanting a new D seat in Bexar county (parts of old 28/21/35) plus a split down the middle of Travis that would create two D seats in that county instead of one.

    • edtorres04 September 13, 2017 at 8:07 am

      For all the heat that Mitch McConnell gets from the right, this is on him. If he didn’t prevent Garland from getting through, we’d have a whole new map.

      • rdelbov September 13, 2017 at 9:04 am

        Yes we would be looking at a very different high court if we let the moderate(what a joke) Garland take that seat.

        Why not repeat myself? I get peeved when I read about the pompous Oregon senators talking about the bipartisan tradition of their judicial review commission that dates back to 2008!!!My goodness how long is that tradition? Of course the D packed committee has produced 3 liberal nominees since 2008. No republicans have made it to a court appointment from this process.

  • Izengabe September 13, 2017 at 9:29 am

    Re NY-15: Jose Serrano (who is unreasonable) is keeping the Congressional seat warm for his son (who is actually a somewhat reasonable guy). No way he would let Melissa Mark-Viverito (completely unreasonable left wing loon) get the nomination. Most likely scenario would be a ballot switcheroo were party leaders put Serrano Jr in the Congressional seat and give Melissa Mark-Viverito the state senate seat. Remember the longer Melissa Mark-Viverito is out of the Speakers Chair the less power she will have. By 2018 she will be a footnote


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • andyroo312 September 13, 2017 at 10:01 am

    Poor Sal Albanese, couldn’t even match the 21 percent he received in the ’97 mayoral race.


    MA-7

    • Izengabe September 13, 2017 at 12:26 pm

      Albanese’s ’97 campaign was for real. He was a sitting City Councilman, ran as an outerboro progressive (minimum wage hikes, living wage bill, campaign finance and other left wing economic issues) and actually got quite a bit of attention. 20 years later he was just “Not deBlasio”.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • TheWizardOf144 September 13, 2017 at 10:26 am

    Just confirmed this with a Toomey Staffer. Dent planning to resign so Party bosses can hand the nomination to Ryan Mackenzie in a special election.

    • Izengabe September 13, 2017 at 12:33 pm

      If true this is big. Also a very stupid move. Simmons could run as Indy and hand this seat to the Dems.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Left Coast Libertarian September 13, 2017 at 12:37 pm

        Gotta love PA GOP party bosses. Tone deaf.

      • TheWizardOf144 September 13, 2017 at 12:55 pm

        Dent has become very tone-deaf in the last 6 years.

        It’s also not impossible for Simmons to be nominated for a special. Sure, he’d lose Lehigh, but could win the delegation from Northampton, Berks, LebCo, and Dauphin. All around, this is dumb

        • Vosmyorka September 13, 2017 at 3:30 pm

          I’d assume if Dent is resigning he’s either confident his choice will receive the nomination, or has some new job lined up a la Chaffetz and doesn’t care any longer.


          Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

        • HS September 13, 2017 at 5:02 pm

          Even so this just seems crazy. The GOP doesn’t want a special election to allow the Dems the opportunity to win this district. In a regular election, the GOP has a huge edge; but not in a special election.

          • TheWizardOf144 September 13, 2017 at 10:08 pm

            Audio http://chirb.it/r8ghtc

            Charlie is not happy he got caught.

            • HS September 13, 2017 at 11:12 pm

              Wait…I listened to that and it doesn’t really demonstrate anything. Dent is not happy he was being disturbed by what is clearly an opponent being sort of rude. He never admits or slips up to admit anything.

              • TheWizardOf144 September 13, 2017 at 11:24 pm

                “I don’t know where you got that” isn’t a “no”. (The guy calling was not me, btw.)

                • TennesseeMike September 13, 2017 at 11:42 pm

                  It’s not a “yes” either.


                  TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

  • Republican Michigander September 13, 2017 at 10:51 am

    “”””MI-Sen: Rep. Fred Upton (R) is apparently quietly considering a run for the seat of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (R). Upton, a centrist from a purple seat in southwest Michigan, has been termed-out as Energy and Commerce chair but is not ready to retire. Upton could face a tough primary if Robert “Kid Rock” Ritchie (R) pulls the trigger on a run for this seat; however, if Ritchie stays out, Upton would be a strong favorite against the little-known Republicans in the race already.””””

    I’m not sure how strong Upton is outside of his region (Berrien, Van Buren, and Allegan Counties, Kalamazoo Suburbs). Keep in mind that in Upton’s area, you see as many (shudder) Chicago area sports fans as Detroit fans. I sees Bears, Bulls, and even Blackhawks jerseys there. We haven’t had a US Senator from west of Lansing or north of Flint since arguably Bob Griffin (who was a transplant up north). Before that, you have to go back to Charles Potter from Cheboygan in the 1950’s for senate. The last Governor west of Lansing or North of Flint was RINO Bill Milliken from Traverse City. The last West Michigan Governor was Kim Sigler (Hastings) in the 1940’s. The last West Michigan Senator was Arthur Vandenberg from Grand Rapids during the Roosevelt Era. Upton’s strong in his district, but East of Battle Creek, only political junkies know who he is. I’m not even sure he’s known in the Grand Rapids area, and that’s West MI’s base.

    Upton does have one major advantage if he runs. John James is from Detroit and Farmington Hills (Oakland). Bob Young is from Detroit, Grosse Pointe, and now Mason I believe (Wayne and Ingham). Lena Epstein is from the Bloomfields (Oakland). Upton would be the only Senate candidate not from the Detroit area. If Ritchie actually jumps in, he’d also be from the Detroit area being from Romeo and Clarkston (Macomb and Oakland).


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Conservative First September 13, 2017 at 11:14 am

      I strongly disagree with calling Upton a strong favorite. He has a strong base in his district, but a third of Rs in the 6th district have never liked him and will vote for anyone against him. As RM points out, he is mostly unknown beyond Battle Creek and Holland. I suppose that he could win as the most moderate candidate in a split field, but has a lot working against him, from refusing to endorse Trump, to a LONG voting record, to an image as a career politician.

      • zbigreddogz September 13, 2017 at 12:54 pm

        Are you talking about the primary? Because if that’s the case, fine, but his run is predicated on him not having a serious primary.

        If you’re talking about the general, that’s absurd. There is no way 1/3rd of R’s wouldn’t vote for him. It’s a swing-ish district and if 1/3rd of R’s wouldn’t vote for him there is no way in hell he’d be in office.

        • Conservative First September 13, 2017 at 1:35 pm

          I mean the primary. Upton’s primary challengers have gotten 37, 32, 43, 33, and 29 over the years. The last was a complete joke. Lena Epstein and Bob Young are serious candidates and won’t roll over for him.
          Upton certainly wouldn’t lose 1/3 of Rs in the general, but he could certainly lose a critical few percent of movement conservatives and Trump voters.

      • Amish September 14, 2017 at 6:31 am

        As one Republican in his district, I will forever blame this RINO for eliminating the regular light bulb and making me buy spaghetti bulbs with mercury in them. “TURN OUT LIGHT BULB FRED!!”

  • Manhatlibertarian September 13, 2017 at 10:54 am

    Wednesday NY Tidbits:

    State DOL official Juanita Perez Williams defeated Dem organization endorsed Councilman Joe Nicoletti for the Dem nomination for mayor of Syracuse. However, Nicoletti has indicated he may still run in November on the Working Families Party line. There are also Green Party, Republican Party and Reform/Upstate Jobs Party candidates in the race.

    Although he only got 15% of the vote in the Dem primary against Mayor deBlasio, former NYC Councilman Sal Albanese said he will run in November as the Reform party candidate to give anti deBlasio voters who won’t support a Republican a place to go.

    Turnout in the Dem primary for mayor was only 14% of registered Dems, way below the 23% in the more hotly contested 2013 Dem primary for mayor.

    Besides the 3 NYC Dem Assemblymen and State Senator who won City Council primaries in heavily Dem districts there are other members of the state legislature running for other offices in November. Dem State Senator George Latimer is running for Westchester CE, Dem Assemblyman Mickey Kearns is running for Erie County Clerk (as a Repub), GOP Assemblyman Chad Lupinacci is running for Huntington Township Supervisor, GOP Assemblyman Mike Graf is running for a local district judgeship in Suffolk County, and Assemblyman Steve McLaughlin is the apparent GOP nominee for Rensselaer County Executive. There may be a lot of special elections next year.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

    • Izengabe September 13, 2017 at 12:51 pm

      Mike Bloomberg’s biggest failure was his inability to switch NYC municipal elections to a California top two jungle primary system. Only 68% of New York City voters are registered Democrats. They are the only ones eligible to vote in Democrat primaries that usually guarantees the winner of the November elections. Only 14% of them turned out to vote which means only 9.52% of New York City voters are responsible for choosing the next government of NYC. Bill deBlasio won 75% of the vote which means only about 7% of New York City voters voted for him. The system is an anti-democratic joke. 32% of voters in NYC essentially get no say in who is elected to run the city and 86% of those who are eligible to vote dont. Reform is really needed here.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • rdw72777 September 13, 2017 at 2:51 pm

        How exactly would top 2 have changed any of this? 2 democrats running in Sept vs 2 Democrats running in November. Whoop-tee-do.

        • Vosmyorka September 13, 2017 at 3:05 pm

          New York has partisan registration for primaries; it would’ve opened the election up to a much wider electorate and made it more difficult (though of course still far from impossible) for someone like DeBlasio to get through.


          Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

          • Izengabe September 13, 2017 at 3:14 pm

            A coalition made up of 1/3 of registered Democrats plus the 32% of registered voters who are Republicans, independents & others could win in a top two system as opposed to a small percentage of registered Democrats (in yesterday’s election they were about 9% of all registered voters) choosing who runs NYC.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • krazen1211 September 13, 2017 at 3:24 pm

          ‘Change the rules because candidate X is winning’ sounds kind of like Hillary Clinton style whining tbh.

          If deblasio has a support of the majority of the majority, isn’t he just using the Hastert rule on us?

          • Vosmyorka September 13, 2017 at 3:26 pm

            Rules about how the rules are determined, or can be changed, are a key part of politics. Indeed, a massive part of the point of federalism is to allow these rules to vary based on different needs, realities, and desires in different states.


            Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

            • krazen1211 September 13, 2017 at 5:56 pm

              Well, I agree with both of those things.

              The issue here is that the anti-Deblasio folks are a minority of the electorate there, and you are going to need some number of his own supporters to support any sort of rules change. And for that I think there needs to be something more than sour grapes over a single election. I think one could argue, for instance, that municipal elections should generally be non-partisan so that candidates focus more on fixing subways and less about preening about the elected President.

              Besides, this is the same set of rules that Rudy Giuliani ran under, is it not? So I am not convinced that the rules themselves are the problem. Perhaps the electorate of NYC has changed enough that they don’t really care much about the subways.

              • Izengabe September 13, 2017 at 7:17 pm

                Bloomberg tried to get non-partisan elections passed when he was Mayor. It was part of the charter revision package that voters rejected in 2003. Bloomberg’s mistake was insisting that no party labels appear on the ballot. That’s what scared people off and made it seem like it was an attempt to manipulate the voting to his electoral advantage. If he simply proposed a CA style jungle primary (with party labels) and had the new voting go into effect in 2009 (after he was supposedly term limited) it would have had a much better chance at passing. It would have been seen as a good government measure as opposed to a power grab by Bloomberg.


                Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Conservative First September 13, 2017 at 10:54 am

    MI-11: Not a tossup!
    https://www.gongwer.com/programming/blogindex.cfm?start=9/10/2017

    • Republican Michigander September 13, 2017 at 11:23 am

      Obama won it in 2008 over a quitter in McCain. The D’s need to flip Wixom, Walled Lake (Trump and Obama 08 won it), Troy, Birmingham, Northville (city), its portion of West Bloomfield (Most of the D part is in MI-14) AND Novi while running up the score in Canton, Plymouth (City), and Auburn Hills to have a chance. They probably need to flip Livonia and Waterford as well (Obama in 08 did, Hillary did not and lost both by a decent margin). It’s possible, but not likely. They need to run the table.

      Gongwer got Waterford wrong, but I’m not sure how old the writer is and if he remembers the old Waterford. Waterford was reliably working class white labor D for years and drawn in the D-Gerrymander of the 1980’s for that reason. D’s still can do well there, but it’s moved away from them quite a bit outside of the 2008 disaster.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • prsteve11 September 13, 2017 at 10:58 am

    Very interesting article from lefty site Politico that should be reassuring to Republicans who have the shakes about 2018: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/13/teflon-trump-democrats-messaging-242607

    The gist of it is that in spite of President Trump’s relatively low approval ratings, the Dems aren’t doing nearly as well as conventional wisdom suggests looking ahead to 2018 and 2020. Also, though the MSM will not report it, there are divisions within the Dem ranks that aren’t helping them either.


    SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • Tekzilla September 13, 2017 at 2:34 pm

      Everything is coming up Milhouse!


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • cer September 13, 2017 at 3:09 pm

        Keep telling yourself that….

        Those who pound their chest the loudest tend to end up with egg on their face.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • rdelbov September 13, 2017 at 4:06 pm

          If the 2016 election taught us anything its this–online polling by a democratic polling firm might be a bit bias towards Trump and the GOP

          Funny how all the polls were wrong in 2016 and yet now magically they are a good basis for an article on the 2018/2020 elections.

          • Boehnerwasright September 13, 2017 at 5:06 pm

            Yearh the national polls that showed on average HRC +3 while she got +2 were way off. Could we finally stop saying all polls were wrong and instead say that it was mostly state polls that were a lot off.
            And even better we could acknowledge that the state polls were way off, but the timing and amount of state polls in swing states also played a role in the perception HRC had a better chance.

            • rdelbov September 13, 2017 at 5:19 pm

              I agree that all polls were not wrong-hey I am a big guy about that comment. I refuse to give the national polls a pass, however, as IMO I believe they consistently over stated Hillary’s support and her polling lead. So I don’t cut them too slack as the national polls narrowed but IMO they should have shown her with near double digit leads.

              Yup the vast majority of critical state polls were wrong.

              So IMO basing assumptions, as this article did, on online polls from a D polling firm is hogwash.

  • RogueBeaver September 13, 2017 at 11:10 am

    RIP: Pete Domenici has died at 85. https://www.abqjournal.com/1062836/end-of-an-era-sen-pete-domenici-passes-away-in-albuquerque.html


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • rdelbov September 13, 2017 at 11:50 am

      Oh my goodness a giant has fallen. Pete D. was a electoral and legislative superstar. Here is a little trivia for you. Senate offices were being renovated and there was a shortage of space in 1973. So two freshmen senators Joe Biden and Pete Domenici -who were last in seniority for the class-shared office space. Jesse Helms I believe got his own office that year as did Sam Nunn because their states were larger?

      • rdelbov September 13, 2017 at 12:20 pm

        Pete D was pressured by the Bush white house in 2002 to run again. It worked that year but in 2008 despite personal appeals he retired.

    • Izengabe September 13, 2017 at 12:20 pm

      Domenici is the biological father of NV AG Adam Laxalt.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Jon Henrik Gilhuus September 13, 2017 at 1:30 pm

      A glaring error in the article:
      “He was key in the effort to secure funding to get weapons-grade plutonium out of the Soviet Union when it broke apart in the 1980s, and he and Democratic Rep. John Kasich of Ohio a negotiated the nation’s last balanced budget in 1997.”


      The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.
      - P.J. O'Rourke

      • TheWizardOf144 September 13, 2017 at 1:31 pm

        Not really an error.

        • shamlet September 13, 2017 at 10:27 pm

          Of course it’s an error. The USSR broke up in the 90s.


          R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

  • krazen1211 September 13, 2017 at 11:34 am

    Ohio Senate is ‘very competitive’ in internal polls.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/KimberlyRailey/status/907974050219270145

    • prsteve11 September 13, 2017 at 11:57 am

      That’s not surprising considering that with the exception of 2012, Ohio has been definitely trending red this decade.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • californianintexas September 14, 2017 at 12:02 am

        Yes, Ohio did trend right this decade, with an R+3 PVI in 2016. Interestingly, Ohio had a PVI between R+0 and R+1 from 1968 to 2012. The last time Ohio was not a swing state (PVI between R+5 and D+5 per Cook) was 1932.


        34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

  • MosheM September 13, 2017 at 11:37 am

    Dem poll has Flake down *27 points* in GOP primary
    +losing to Sinema in general election
    https://t.co/woUoDFBxKu


    28, M, R, NY-10

    • Midnight901 September 13, 2017 at 11:50 am

      Per Harry Enten, the only Ward-Sinema poll around has Sinema up by 1 with lots of undecideds.

      The smart play would be urging Flake to retire and trying to get DeWitt or Graham the nomination.

    • Greyhound September 13, 2017 at 1:36 pm

      And consider who he’s down to. I’d bet half of his votes in that matchup are from “Oh god please not Ward” voters as opposed to “the GOP lost its way when it didn’t nominate Goldwater again in ’68” voters that form Flake’s ideological base. He could easily find himself in 3rd place (or worse) if someone else got in.

      When’s the last time a sitting (elected not appointed) US Senator hasn’t even made the top-2 in a primary for his own seat?


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • Izengabe September 13, 2017 at 1:53 pm

        Really? WTF, Greyhound? Do you really believe our country wouldnt have been a heck of a lot better off nominating Goldwater in ’68 instead of Nixon?


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Greyhound September 13, 2017 at 2:27 pm

          Are you kidding me? You . . . realize that gets us 4 more years of the Great Society disaster, right? And delays the formation of the Neocon movement, the GOP surge with White Ethnics, and the re-alignment of the South into the Republican party, and literally every social trend that makes someone like Reagan electorally viable?


          R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

          • Izengabe September 13, 2017 at 2:47 pm

            Goldwater didnt run but if the GOP nominated Reagan (same ideological wing) in ’68 do you really believe he couldn’t have won the general?


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • Greyhound September 13, 2017 at 3:34 pm

              Yes. Seriously, do people not realize how much Nixon De-detoxified the GOP after Goldwater’s ideological disaster? He managed to turn a party mostly comprised of wealthy Northern WASPs and disaffected right-wing ideologues into something with broad national support–something the GOP had lacked ever since the Great Depression wiped out their last coalition. The reason he was able to break into so many areas the GOP struggled to crack 20% with previously was because he managed to defang most of the Democrat’s attacks about Conservative fiscal policy. All of a sudden your average voter in Parma OH was faced with a Republican who wasn’t promising to roll back the New Deal, but one who promised to crack down on the Left-wing social extremism and Black radicalism, which they could actually get behind. Sure his paranoia and grotesque ethical violations eventually blew up in the GOP’s face, but he had done so much work in forging an actual right-wing electorate in the US that the Democrats still only barely won in 1976 with by far their most moderate and electable candidate against a half-term lame duck Republican accident.

              There is no way Reagan could have won without Nixon paving the way for him, in the same way that there is no way Obama could have won without Clinton purging the Democratic party of most of its 70’s and 80’s ideological baggage in the form of slick “Triangulation”.


              R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

              • StatenIslandTest September 13, 2017 at 4:20 pm

                Excellent analysis. I still feel the “Nixon Democrats” in 1972 became the Reagan Dems in the 80s.


                31, Jersey City

      • VastBlightKingConspiracy September 13, 2017 at 8:58 pm

        If conventions count, Bob Bennett.


        I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • segmentation_fault September 13, 2017 at 3:00 pm

      Utah is the only state where a Flake-style Republican can win a primary in the era of Trump.


      core dumped

      • Vosmyorka September 13, 2017 at 3:07 pm

        I guess this depends on what you mean by “Flake-style”; plenty of Flake’s ideological comrades won primaries in 2016 (more so than Trumpian types, in fact); what’s killing Flake is his attitude, but that’s always been similarly punishable (see the defeat of Bob Smith in 2002, for instance).


        Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

        • segmentation_fault September 13, 2017 at 3:13 pm

          By Flake-style, I mean conservative who’s not afraid to call out Trump for what he is. There are other places where anti-Trump Republicans could win primaries, like maybe Massachusetts and Vermont, but they would probably not be Goldwater conservatives.

          Also I’m not sure if there are many who quite fill the Goldwater/Flake ideological space. People like Ben Sasse may be close on a lot of issues but not foreign policy.


          core dumped

          • Vosmyorka September 13, 2017 at 3:25 pm

            Plenty of these guys who were incumbents were renominated and quite easily reelected, pretty consistently running ahead of Trump, in the Midwest and Plains in 2016, even when they explicitly refused to endorse Trump (such as Portman and Toomey, though neither endorsed an alternative; Toomey claimed to have voted for him but only after the election was over, while Portman refused to disclose his vote) and even most open seats nominated Trump-critical endorsers (like Todd Young or Mike Gallagher, both of whom endorsed him reluctantly after dithering) who don’t differ from Flake that much on the issues but simply don’t have his attitude.


            Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

      • Izengabe September 13, 2017 at 3:15 pm

        Give it 5 years and if things keep going the way they are going my guess is we will see this dynamic reverse itself.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • edtorres04 September 13, 2017 at 12:06 pm

    Heidi Heitkamp (a good woman) has announced her re-election.

      • edtorres04 September 13, 2017 at 12:20 pm

        BTW, everyone should bookmark the “Say Anything Blog” for this election cycle. With the ND race one of the most important in the country, this blog will be a good source of info.

    • MosheM September 13, 2017 at 1:55 pm

      haha


      28, M, R, NY-10

    • prsteve11 September 13, 2017 at 4:18 pm

      Whether or not she’s a good woman doesn’t change the fact that the GOP should do everything in their power to defeat her.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • Left Coast Libertarian September 13, 2017 at 6:45 pm

        That becomes tougher when it’s the GOP President calling her “a good woman” and doing rallies with her.

        • andyroo312 September 13, 2017 at 7:42 pm

          *COUGHitsbecauseTrumpwantsaDemocraticSenateCOUGH*


          MA-7

          • TexasR September 13, 2017 at 7:48 pm

            I mean, it’s an open secret that the Donald’s instincts lie with the Democrats. What we should be asking ourselves is: if he goes back to being a Democrat, how much of his base also goes back to being Democrats?


            Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
            Be careful what you wish for

            • Left Coast Libertarian September 14, 2017 at 12:46 am

              There are people in Trump’s base who love him and have always voted Republican. They should stick with the GOP. The working class whites will vote Democratic if it benefits Trump.

            • Greyhound September 14, 2017 at 2:35 am

              Good Question! Since the answer is “Far more than is needed to consign the GOP to permanent minority status”, by this logic a smart Republican party would be doing everything it possibly can to keep Trump a Republican!


              R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

  • Tekzilla September 13, 2017 at 3:05 pm

    Murphy up 58-33% per Q. I’ve been saying Murphy could match Christies win due the environment and Christie….

    https://poll.qu.edu/search-releases/search-results/release-detail?What=&strArea=4;0;&strTime=28&ReleaseID=2484#Question005


    36/M/NY-01 (D)

    • StatenIslandTest September 13, 2017 at 4:24 pm

      Kims campaign seems very confused too. They put Rendo on the ticket to help with Latinos but then they are doing Doug Forrester style ethics prosecution of Menendez and trying to tie Murphy to him. Its not working. No one understands her “circuit-breaker” tax plan either.


      31, Jersey City

  • segmentation_fault September 13, 2017 at 3:30 pm

    Republicans are now behind Democrats and Independents in NC’s voter registration. But to be fair Democrats are still losing voters at a faster rate than them.
    http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/under-the-dome/article173080496.html

    People are switching to Indie for all kinds of reasons. Trumpist fed up with establishment GOP? Conservative fed up with Trumpist GOP? Berniebot fed up with establishment Dems? Conservative Dem becoming an Indie to vote for Trump (I think this might have been a big one in NC)? Also like 70-80% of 18 year olds registering for the first time are choosing Indie.


    core dumped

    • Vosmyorka September 13, 2017 at 3:34 pm

      North Carolina has a semi-open primary (independents can vote in whatever primary they want, registered party members must vote in their own or not at all), so it also makes sense as a tactical decision. Though my impression is North Carolina has always been a competitive state below the presidential level (starting in 1970, NC has only had 2 Senate elections that were not decided in the single-digits: an easy Democratic win in 1974 and an easy Republican win in 2010. All other Senate races have been competitive), maybe that’s becoming more apparent as it becomes a key presidential battleground as well.


      Right-leaning anti-Trump Indy. OH-3. Male, Russoanglohispanophone.

    • Jon September 13, 2017 at 6:10 pm

      It’s news to me that at one point there were more registered Republicans than Democrats there. (Inertia … those who feel the D party left them often never get around to changing their voter registration to match who they vote for in general elections.)


      45, M, MO-02

      • segmentation_fault September 13, 2017 at 7:20 pm

        There were never more Republicans than Democrats in NC. It’s always been D > R > I but now it’s D > I > R.


        core dumped

        • roguemapper September 14, 2017 at 12:47 am

          As an idle aside I just wrapped up an 11-3 map of NC based on 2020 population projections and I’m reasonably sure that it would be a dummymander with at least 2 borderline districts. But, maybe not. I’ll post it this weekend when I have time to work up the 2016 numbers. Perhaps those will tell a different story.


          Dem NC-11

          • Boehnerwasright September 14, 2017 at 6:06 am

            Would love to see the maps.

            • roguemapper September 14, 2017 at 7:43 am

              I’ll post them tomorrow on the weekend thread!


              Dem NC-11

  • RogueBeaver September 13, 2017 at 5:15 pm

    MI-11/SEN: Epstein might drop down to the 11th. http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/09/13/lena-epstein-trott-house-seat/105579026/


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • Conservative First September 13, 2017 at 5:29 pm

      “Other Republicans who have expressed early interest in the House seat include state Sens. Marty Knollenberg of Troy and Mike Kowall of White Lake, state Reps. Laura Cox of Livonia and Klint Kesto of Commerce Township, and former state Reps. Rocky Raczkowski pf Troy and Kurt Heise, the current supervisor in Plymouth Township.”

      • rdelbov September 13, 2017 at 5:36 pm

        These seat was designed for a Wayne county guy but it looks like Oakland county pols are lining up. 40% for the D candidate in 2016 speaks volumes to me as to the nature of this seat.

        • Son_of_the_South September 13, 2017 at 5:40 pm

          It’s mostly an Oakland County seat.


          23, R, TN-08
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • Red Oaks September 13, 2017 at 6:06 pm

            Yes, the 11th is now close to 70% Oakland/30% Wayne. The old Thad McCotter 11th from 2002 to 2010 was a mostly Wayne based seat.


            MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

        • Conservative First September 13, 2017 at 9:16 pm

          Cox and Heise are both from Wayne. Thad McCotter drew a majority-Wayne seat to elect him in 2002, but the seat shifted to majority-Oakland in 2012.

      • krazen1211 September 13, 2017 at 5:57 pm

        I remember our Michigan posters speculating that Marty Knolleberg drew the 11th seat for himself back in 2011. Then he just never ran for it?

        • Red Oaks September 13, 2017 at 6:14 pm

          At the time the lines were being drawn in 2011 Thad McCotter was running a quixotic Presidential campaign. Then he later dropped back to running for reelection and all other candidates deferred to him except for Kerry Bentivolio. The rest is history.


          MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

          • Republican Michigander September 13, 2017 at 9:55 pm

            Marty almost ran for it from what I remember.

            I wonder if that’s ever happened before where the old district went for the D candidate and the new district went for the R candidate. Thank God the 11th District doesn’t have Van Buren Twp, Redford, or Westland anymore.


            MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • Conservative First September 13, 2017 at 9:42 pm

          Knollenberg announced in 2012 that he would run for his father’s old seat, then held by Gary Peters. This didn’t make sense, as everybody knew that redistricting was going to chop up Peters’ seat. After it did, he instead ran for county treasurer and lost.

  • HS September 13, 2017 at 5:38 pm

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/350455-rick-scotts-hurricane-response-boosts-profile-for-potential-senate-run

    Gov. Rick Scott has been dealing with the hurricane in an impressive performance. It may help him if he runs for FL.

    • Boehnerwasright September 13, 2017 at 6:04 pm

      Should help him if he runs and I think he would be the best candidate the republicans could get. But i fear if he decides not to run Nelson looks a lot better for re-election.
      Everybody waited for Scott to decide and some candidates choose the gov. race instead. Every other candidate would have less time to raise money and introduce them to voters. Couldn’t think of someone with the same amount of name-id and money Scott has.

    • prsteve11 September 13, 2017 at 6:16 pm

      I’ve been thinking the same thing. Rick Scott’s popularity has been rising in general has been rising for some time now after being unpopular for much of his tenure.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • Manhatlibertarian September 13, 2017 at 5:54 pm

    Correction to an earlier post of mine. I said 3 of 4 Dem NY assembly members won the Dem nomination to the NYC Council. That should have read 2 of 4. Assemblyman Mark Gjonaj won the Dem nomination for Council District 13 and Assemblyman Francisco Moya for Council District 21. But Assemblyman Robert Rodriquez failed to get the Dem nomination in Council District 8 and Assemblyman Felix Ortiz failed to get the Dem nomination in Council District 38.

  • Manhatlibertarian September 13, 2017 at 6:23 pm

    Senate Majority Leader McConnell announced that “blue slips” should not be used to blackball circuit court judge nominees. Recently Dem senators from Oregon and Minnesota have tried to use the blue slip to block Trump Admin circuit court nominees. McConnell does favor continuing to use it for federal district court nominations however.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/350553-mcconnell-blue-slips-shouldnt-blackball-circuit-court-nominees

    • rdelbov September 13, 2017 at 9:04 pm

      Historically the President has had more say in naming circuit judges. I might add as well that judicial commissions that D and some R senators set up corrupt the “advice and consent” role that the senate has. D senators want to submit an approved list of nominees to the President. The President is trying to turn it around and say here is a list of nominees that I approve of you then “what say you? Do you consent?”.
      Kudos to Mitch

  • Manhatlibertarian September 13, 2017 at 6:43 pm

    Bernie Sanders single payer plan seems to have created mixed reactions from Dem members of Congress. On the one hand a majority of House Dems seem to support it as well as more than a quarter of Senate Dems. But Dem Minority Leader Pelosi and Whip Hoyer say they are more interested right now in “fixing up” the ACA and Senate Minority Leader Shumer is evasive about supporting it. Red State Senators like Tester, Heitkamp, Donnelly and Manchin have indicated they also think the focus should be on fixing up the ACA not a single payer system. A recent poll showed that a slight majority of Dems (52%) now favor single payer but there are many Dems who are still wary of such a system; likely Dem Arizona Senate nominee Congresswoman Sinema recently strongly attacked such a proposal as not affordable.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/09/12/democrats_split_on_sanders_medicare_for_all_plan.html#2

    • HS September 13, 2017 at 6:51 pm

      This is where the Dems long planned to go. First they would foist Obama Care on us, which they knew would make things worse. Then, when things got worse, they always planned to claim that single payer was the only way to go. Sinema and the others will change once (if) safely elected.

      • Manhatlibertarian September 13, 2017 at 7:54 pm

        I don’t know if it is as simple as that. When the ACA was first introduced it was supposed to contain a “public option” on the health care exchanges that some saw as the “camel’s nose under the tent” that would start the move to a government run health care system, although supposedly it was only to create “competition” with private health insurance plans. However, they couldn’t get 60 votes in the senate for this particularly since Joe Lieberman (whose state had the HQ of a lot of private health insurance companies) strongly opposed the public option. So the public option was dropped from the ACA legislation. So yes there were some Dems who really wanted single payer all along but I wouldn’t say that is what all Dems want. Sinema is pretty adamant in attacking single payer as not affordable. Gov Hickenlooper and Senator Bennet in Colorado came out strongly against a single payer ballot question in the state that finally lost by a big margin. I know what you are thinking in that when push comes to shove when the Dems control Congress and the White House again a lot of these centrist and Red State Dems will hop aboard the single payer train. But I still think at least some of these Dems will balk at this budget buster plan and besides they may come from conservative states where such a plan will not be popular, so they have their own re-election to think about. But then again maybe I’m being naive. One thing I’m sure will be true is that in the not to distant future a big majority of Dems in both the House and Senate will favor a single payer system.

        • HS September 13, 2017 at 8:16 pm

          I haven’t seen much evidence anyone cares if a program busts the budget. The last Dem who really did was Tsongas. Trump has no interest in that either. Ryan and McConnell may object, but if it is popular, they will cave and give us a smaller version. Basically we are limited to real fiscal conservatives such as Cruz, Lee, Paul, maybe Rubio, etc. Maybe 25% of the House and Senate.

          • jncca September 13, 2017 at 8:19 pm

            Rubio is not a real fiscal conservative at all! He loves spending tons of money on things like never-ending wars or large tax cuts that are not paid for. He and Bernie Sanders are very similar when it comes to the deficit.


            24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

            • segmentation_fault September 13, 2017 at 8:23 pm

              To be fair Bernie wants to pay for things by raising taxes (A LOT), Rubio wants to spend money and not raise taxes.


              core dumped

              • jncca September 13, 2017 at 10:58 pm

                True, Bernie is more fiscally conservative than Rubio to an extent.


                24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

              • HS September 13, 2017 at 11:04 pm

                Nice try. The never ending wars don’t cost anywhere close to entitlements. And which wars are you objecting too? And the idea that we are going to just increase taxes to cover entitlements and new entitlements (single payer, free college, etc.) Is not going to work. There isn’t enough money to pay for all this stuff. But cutting taxes, mind you, can pay for themself if they spur serious economic growth. You know, the thing we used to have before Obama came into office.

                • segmentation_fault September 14, 2017 at 1:23 am

                  Yeah, the Bush years were just GREAT for the economy…


                  core dumped

                  • Left Coast Libertarian September 14, 2017 at 9:11 am

                    Many of the Bush years were fantastic for the economy. Bush inherited a recession that was made worse by 9/11 but from 2002 to 2007 the economy had robust growth. A lot of people saw the value of their house go up tremendously. The economy tanked in 2007-2008. While most people were worse off at the end of the Bush Presidency than they were in 2006, some weren’t worse off than they were in 2002. Some people lost their homes during the recession although many of them wouldn’t have had homes if not for the Bush Presidency.

                    • Izengabe September 14, 2017 at 9:57 am

                      And if not for the Bush tax cuts the effect of 9/11 recession could have been a lot worse. There was a lot of good tax policy made during the Bush years and the 2008 collapse was a result of a failure in regulatory policy.


                      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                    • TennesseeMike September 14, 2017 at 11:55 pm

                      Agree. Many Republicans seem afraid to counter Democrat attacks on tax cuts which to me is madding. If you listen to Democrats the tax cuts of 2001 caused the 2008 recession. This is insane. The recession had nothing to do with tax cuts but everything to do with over-loaning money to people with no realistic way of paying it back.


                      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

            • Izengabe September 13, 2017 at 11:07 pm

              Cutting taxes as part of a strategy to increase growth can generate more revenue for the government if done correctly. It is NOT the same as spending money. Understanding that make you a fiscal conservative. Tax policy is not a zero sum game.


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

              • Left Coast Libertarian September 14, 2017 at 12:44 am

                The problem is that lowering taxes doesn’t take place in a vacuum. If that were the only factor in an economy it’d work most of the time, as it did for Reagan and W. But it isn’t. Lowering taxes can lower revenue even if you do it right, just as raising taxes can result in revenue going up or down.

                • segmentation_fault September 14, 2017 at 1:17 am

                  Degree is important too. If you slash taxes as much as Izengabe probably wants you would end up with lower revenue even though yes it would likely stimulate economic growth.

                  On the other hand if you jack up taxes as much as Bernie wants you will discourage investment and send jobs overseas.

                  But I think if the top rate on income had a 4 in front of it as Steve Bannon wants there would not be a negative effect on the economy, provided the extra revenue is spent on things like infrastructure and not free college for political science majors.


                  core dumped

                  • VastBlightKingConspiracy September 14, 2017 at 8:40 am

                    I can’t find anything in this post I disagree with. The horseshoe effect in practice?


                    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                  • Left Coast Libertarian September 14, 2017 at 9:27 am

                    I’m not sure how much Izengabe wants to cut taxes and I don’t see anywhere he gives a rate. Obviously there’s a level you could cut taxes that it’d be nearly impossible to not have revenue fall. Revenue growth from 2003 to 2007 was 44%, greater than any growth under Bush I or Clinton. Revenue growth under Obama from 2010 to 2014 was even higher, 49%. Obama did cut taxes initially with his payroll tax cut and eventually raised income and other taxes.

                    Some of the revenue increase probably had to do with the tax cuts and some of it was that the revenue declines in previous years made growth inevitable.

                    Cutting taxes will stimulate economic growth but there are other factors. You need a crystal ball to know if it’ll stimulate it enough to increase revenue. Likewise, increasing taxes will slow economic growth but there are other factors there too. Increasing taxes during the Obama years probably slowed economic growth but we could only go up at that point. So revenue went up.

                    Bernienomics starts with punishing the rich and then expects the rich to act as government agents implementing what Bernie wants. And when they don’t progressives get mad.

                    • Izengabe September 14, 2017 at 10:03 am

                      While I do want to cuts taxes a lot in Izengabe’s world we would also cut spending a lot too. But tax policy should not be about punishing or helping people. It should be about the most efficient way of raising revenue without hurting growth. Our corporate tax system is a disaster because it is riddled with loopholes that encourages companies to keep profits overseas. It is perfectly reasonable to expect to be able to cut corporate tax rates and increase revenue. As for income taxes simplifying the tax code and lowering rates can increase economic growth and increase revenue.


                      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

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