Political Roundup for September 28, 2017

As President Trump decides who next to pick a fight with in our never ending kulturkampf, it is time for today’s roundup:

President/National

Trump-Alabama:  President Trump (Himself) is infuriated by being directed by his political yes men and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) to back Senator Luther Strange (R-Dead to Trump) in the Republican primary to replace Senator Jeff Sessions (R).

HHS:  Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price (R) is in hot water over his use of private jets.  President Trump appears ready to throw him under the bus.

North Korea:  Nearly half of Americans support going to war against North Korea, which is about the same that think that President Trump and Kim Jong Un (Juche) really mean what they are saying.

Congress

Senate candidates:  The Hill looks at five Senate candidates who could change races if they enter the races.

FL-Sen:  Governor Rick Scott (R) has taken a slight lead in the US Senate race against Senator Bill Nelson (D).  Scott leads Nelson 47-45.

AL-Sen:  Here is 5 takeaways from the Republican primary and runoff for US Senate.

More AL-Sen:  Republican US Senate nominee Roy Moore (R-KJV) is causing worries in the US Senate even before he is elected.  Moore, the presumptive frontrunner, to replace interim US Senator Luther Strange is known for his various incidents involving the Ten Commandments.

Congress: Democrats are having a good run recruiting candidates for 2018, but there are several seats where the Democrats are having recruitment problems.

States

MI-AG:  Former US Attorney Pat Miles (D) is seeking the Democratic nomination for US Senate.  Miles served as US Attorney for the Western District of Michigan from 2011 to 2017.

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150 Comments

  • edtorres04 September 28, 2017 at 7:25 am

    Republican Redistricting Group formed to take on Obama/Holder:

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/deep-pocketed-republican-group-ready-to-battle-obama-and-holder-over-redistricting-control/article/2635885

    • MosheM September 28, 2017 at 7:51 am

      All that actually counts is the political climate in 2018 and 2020.
      This is a way for consultants to get rich.


      29, M, R, NY-10

    • rdelbov September 28, 2017 at 10:39 am

      Kudos to the GOP putting emphasis and money on legislative and gubernatorial races in 2018. It is redistricting 101. You win redistricting 2022-honestly starting in 2015 or 2016? Winning some of the VA state senate races in 2015 helps in 2019 and getting a MO governor elected in 2016 will give him a huge leg up on re-election 2020.

      Basically you could funnel this money through state and local efforts-and most of it will end up there-but making it a national effort allows them access to big donors and big donations. I note that the Obama-Holder effort made a 500K contribution to Northam in VA. Redistricting is still about governor and legislative races.

  • andrew_1918 September 28, 2017 at 7:46 am

    I know, nobody cares…

    Albuquerque mayoral election (PPP (D), 9/24-25):
    Keller (D)- 33%, Lewis (R)- 17%, Colon (D)- 16%, Johnson (R)- 14%
    http://joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com.by/2017/09/new-ppp-poll-keller-slam-dunk-for-1st.html

    • shamlet September 28, 2017 at 9:35 am

      Of course we care! We have a preview coming next Tuesday… the big question here is whether Lewis or Johnson can get any sort of edge on the other – if they continue to split the vote very evenly I think Colon has a good chance of making it to the second round where he’d be a strong favorite over Keller.

      Quick cheat sheet to the candidates: Keller = mainstream liberal. Lewis = establishment R. Colon = Cuellar-type Conservadem. Johnson = conservative/mildly Trumpist.


      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • Izengabe September 28, 2017 at 10:12 am

      @ANDREW_1918 LOL! Your post should read “I know, nobody cares outside of all you crazy folks here at RRH….”


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 8:58 am

      Again, the important numbers to check are presidential popularity in the individual states, not the entire country. Trump’s been quite popular in the states that the Dems have to defend almost from the moment that he was elected.

    • Izengabe September 28, 2017 at 10:13 am

      Trump was starting to get roasted for not doing this. He clearly saw the firestorm coming and acted fast.Good for him and hopefully good for Puerto Rico. But a better move would be to repeal the Jones Act entirely.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Boehnerwasright September 28, 2017 at 2:57 pm

      Good move and kill this law already for once and for all.

      • Jon September 28, 2017 at 7:05 pm

        Yup, if congress doesn’t repeal this bad law, some US shipping company is going to file suit to void the waiver as soon as the media attention on Puerto Rico ends.


        45, M, MO-02

    • davybaby September 29, 2017 at 1:15 am

      The same law applies to passenger ships as well as cargo–that’s why all the cruises to Alaska leave from Vancouver rather than Seattle.

  • edtorres04 September 28, 2017 at 9:16 am

    MO Senate: Hawley (who still isn’t officially in) may still get in: https://morningconsult.com/2017/09/25/missouri-gop-fundraiser-says-hawley-will-run-u-s-senate/

    • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 9:50 am

      I hope he stays away, though he’d be the favorite if he runs. I just think that Austin Petersen could be one of the best senators in the country if he wins.

      • andyroo312 September 28, 2017 at 9:57 am

        Peterson winning the nomination is how McCaskill would again inexplicably hold on to her seat.


        MA-7

        • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 10:02 am

          You understand how much I hate that talking point, right? Unlike Todd Akin, Petersen’s a very charismatic and well-spoken individual that would have bipartisan appeal with both hardcore conservatives and some progressives (mainly on marijuana legalization and criminal justice reform)

          • MikeFL September 28, 2017 at 10:15 am

            It is still valid to point out, although I do think he is much better than Ward both personally and politically.


            26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

            • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 10:25 am

              200mI tend to be in favor of revolutionary candidates with unorthodox ideas, even if they are rough around the edges as far as their rhetoric or political instincts are concerned. I think that voters like myself can see past surface level and prefer somebody because of their principled policy stances and their willingness to sometimes cast votes even if they are the only ones in favor or against (aka. the Ron Paul “no” vote). Ward and Petersen would both qualify as this IMO, and Petersen has the added bonus of being very polished and reasonably gaffe-proof, as well.

              • jncca September 28, 2017 at 10:33 am

                I don’t see evidence that voters want that.

                In fact, 2016 demonstrated that voters want a candidate who is precisely the opposite — the “realistic” Hillary Clinton was rejected for Donald Trump, who was very good at telling voters things they wanted to hear, like that a wall was going to be built or that he would bring jobs back from overseas.

                While Hillary Clinton is no Ron Paul (for good and for bad), she was closer to his camp of trying to convince voters of something they didn’t want to hear and losing because of it.

                Bernie Sanders also overperformed because he convinced people they could have everything without paying for it (single-payer health care with no middle class tax increases, for example).

                Petersen would lose because voters want fairy tales, not realistic solutions to their problems. If you haven’t figured this out yet then you should study elections more because it’s the only conclusion you can get to.


                24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

                • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 10:46 am

                  I don’t think that’s why Trump won over Hillary; I think that many people, especially in the middle of the country, were turned off by the leftist culture war more than anything, especially in the media and in Hollywood. Your stated reason may be why Trump won over Cruz in the primary, but that was a plurality win and not a majority win, as well.

                  • jncca September 28, 2017 at 10:53 am

                    In both parties, the “dreamers” overperformed and the “realists” underperformed. That suggest to me that realists aren’t very well-liked right now.


                    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

                  • MikeFL September 28, 2017 at 12:03 pm

                    Trump won because Hillary was the worst Democratic candidate they could’ve nominated. Biden would have easily won.


                    26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

                    • HS September 28, 2017 at 2:15 pm

                      Yes. And ironically, Hillary’s fans in the media pushed Trump figuring he was the one Republican who couldn’t beat her. Because she was such a terrible candidate, which they knew.

                      Do you think the Dems and the pro-Hillary people get this? Are they embarrassed?

          • Izengabe September 28, 2017 at 10:19 am

            Austin Petersen has zero chance of getting elected to the US Senate. I wish he could see that, lower his aim and run for something he could actually win. I kind of wish he’d run for Auditor or a local state Senate seat instead.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 10:31 am

              There are senators out there, notably Ron Johnson, Mike Lee, and Rand Paul, who had zero elected political experience before they were elected to the Senate. What’s stopping a Petersen from running for and winning a Senate seat off of grassroots support?

              • jncca September 28, 2017 at 10:34 am

                Ron Johnson is a mainstream conservative businessman and the other two did not have to beat Democratic incumbents.


                24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

                • Izengabe September 28, 2017 at 10:50 am

                  Ron Johnson self funded, Rand Paul was heir force and Mike Lee won a convention. None of those things apply to Petersen who will be facing the most talented Republican in MO in the GOP primary.

                  Picking the right race to run is hugely important. This is NOT the right race for Petersen. He can only be a spoiler or roadkill in MO-Sen.


                  Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                  • Grant September 28, 2017 at 11:30 am

                    Don’t forget Lee is also a General in the Heir Force! In the past decade, 3 of his cousins have served in the Senate.


                    26, R, OK-5

              • RRR September 28, 2017 at 11:23 am

                You mean Mike Lee (son of an ex-BYU President and US Solicitor General) and Rand Paul (Ron’s son)?

                I’ll give you Johnson, but all accounts from every corner of the GOP have been that he’s been far from a well-oiled Senator. This is not a comment on his ideology but his managerial skills and understanding of governmental process (which, 7-years later, he’s still tying to figure out; his ideological compatriot Ted Cruz sure has that down). Johnson’s office is widely regarded as a nightmare, and the problem is usually pinpointed at the top in his case. He also has been unproductive on the legislative side of things.

                Of course, this isn’t always the case (see Perdue, David… whose cousin was a Georgia Governor…). But, a guy like that often starts best in the House.


                PA-2/IL-9/NY-7; Bronxville Test conservative
                More Steve Litzows/no Moore Kings or Bannons. Sasse '20

          • andyroo312 September 28, 2017 at 11:05 am

            Progressives (who no doubt want a Democratic senate) ain’t voting for a Libertarian Republican over a Democratic incumbent.


            MA-7

          • Indy1975a September 28, 2017 at 11:19 am

            He is an open atheist. That is the end of his campaign. Period. There are millions of voters in Missouri who will never vote for an atheist, even against Air Claire.


            Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

            • TennesseeMike September 28, 2017 at 11:56 am

              Good point. He would never win even in the primary against any credible non-atheist opponent. Besides, Josh Hawley would make a good Senator too. I wonder why he hasn’t declared yet. His interest seems to be the worst kept secret in MO right now.


              TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

            • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 12:03 pm

              There’s two conflicting arguments given here: one, that Progressives won’t vote for someone who’s in favor of legal marijuana, less hawkish foreign policy, NSA reform, and criminal justice reform just because he has an (R) next to his name, and second, that R-leaning voters will vote against someone that is a staunch constitutionalist who supports religious liberty in favor of a Democrat just because he is an atheist (he actually isn’t an atheist, but rather an agnostic that believes that you can’t prove whether there is a God or not). Both of these cannot be correct at the same time.

              • shamlet September 28, 2017 at 12:08 pm

                Why not? The two are not at all mutually exclusive. Syncretism can make it very easy to make both sides hate you. Or, to put it in a more folksy way, it’s a corollary of “The only things in the middle of the road are yellow lines and roadkill.”


                R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

              • Izengabe September 28, 2017 at 12:40 pm

                The arguments are not conflicting. Progressives wont vote of an (R) in the general election if their other option is a (D) like McCaskill. To think Petersen can pull progressive Democrat votes away from a progressive Democrat because he likes weed is insane.

                And R voters will not vote for him in a GOP primary if they have the option of a staunch constitutionalist who supports religious liberty like Hawley without all of Petersen’s unique positions.

                Petersen is a good guy but this is the wrong race for him.


                Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                • Grant September 28, 2017 at 1:05 pm

                  Exactly. The first rule of being a successful politician is knowing which races are winnable. Petersen starts off by running for President in a third party primary against a well known former Governor. He then sees the light and realizes that the best way to advance his libertarian ideals is to run as a Republican, so he switches parties and runs for Senate against an incumbent Democrat in a seat guaranteed to have strong R primary opponents.

                  You will never win if you keep picking completely unwinnable races. He should have taken a page from the Ron Paul/Thomas Massie/Justin Amash playbook and run for lower office first. Maybe he’ll get the message and try again in 2018 or 2020.


                  26, R, OK-5

                  • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 1:40 pm

                    He probably could stand to move to a more rural area if he wants to win a State House or Senate seat (I believe that he lives in a Democratic-heavy part of KC). The thing is, though, is that just because you state your intention to run for a Senate seat doesn’t mean that you can’t move to a lower office campaign if a top establishment guy like Hawley clears the field.

                • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 1:54 pm

                  To clarify, Hawley would clear the field if he runs for Senate. I’m saying that he campaigned on not being a ladder-climber and that he should hold to that pledge (that’s probably why he’s taking a long time to decide). In that case, Petersen will have a much easier shot at a Senate seat.

            • GoBigRedState September 28, 2017 at 1:01 pm

              Yes-that would get played up against him big time especially in SW MO, a big source of GOP voters and heavily religious too. Not to mention the fact that he had a sudden “conversion” to being a Republican after running for the Libertarian nomination for president last year.


              45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

              • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 1:46 pm

                Petersen is not some sudden “convert” to the Rs, though. He now thinks that libertarian ideas are better marketed to the general public by making a new wing inside the Republican party, which is something that I have advocated for a long time. I also want to clarify that I don’t think that he can beat Hawley in a primary; I do, however, think that Hawley should keep his campaign pledge and not be a ladder-climber, and wait until Blunt’s seat opens up.

          • zbigreddogz September 28, 2017 at 3:36 pm

            I sometimes ask libertarians how many progressive types do they REALLY think will vote for a pro-life, anti-“social justice” spending just based on pot and criminal justice reform.

            Usually, they stammer and say, “Some might…”

            Yeah. You might get a half-dozen.

            Sorry, Petersen is a nice guy activist with no significant experience that translates outside the activist world. If he wants to run for a safe seat in the State Legislature and build experience that’s one thing. Till then, I don’t take him terribly seriously.

            • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 3:46 pm

              It’s not that I think that the majority of them will vote for something like that, but that they are a key demographic group that we can convert some people to the libertarian team. Many of the libertarians that I know used to be progressives until they realized that libertarians were the very first people on the pro-weed and anti-war train.

    • Tekzilla September 28, 2017 at 10:50 am

      Bannon seems to be recruiting Ed Martin to face off with him in the primary.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

  • jncca September 28, 2017 at 10:30 am

    It’s not as detailed as I sometimes get but I have a German election diary up.

    http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2017/09/28/a-short-regional-analysis-of-the-german-election/


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • w920us September 28, 2017 at 10:51 am

    I think the link for the Dem congressional recruiting hurdles is not working.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • w920us September 28, 2017 at 11:13 am

    Rep. Steve Scalise currently giving his first speech on the house floor since the shooting.

    Scalise returns to Capitol Hill for first time since shooting, declares ‘I’m back’
    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/09/28/scalise-returning-to-capitol-hill-months-after-shooting.html

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveScalise/status/913405166178783232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2017%2F09%2F28%2Fscalise-returning-to-capitol-hill-months-after-shooting.html


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • w920us September 28, 2017 at 11:37 am

    The Senate may be voting today on another of Trump’s Circuit Court nominees plus the nomination of FCC Chair Ajit Pai. Pai’s nomination is considered a re-nomination for another 5 year term.

    Ralph R. Erickson, of North Dakota, to be United States Circuit Judge for the Eighth Circuit.
    Ajit Varadaraj Pai, of Kansas, to be a member of the Federal Communications Commission.


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • w920us September 28, 2017 at 1:03 pm

      Erickson confirmed by a vote of 95-1.

      https://mobile.twitter.com/senategopfloor/status/913445165192433665


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • freego September 28, 2017 at 1:05 pm

        Another one! Keep ’em coming Mitch!


        24, M, Rockefeller Republican, VA-08

        • prsteve11 September 28, 2017 at 4:04 pm

          Amen! I just wish the SJC would speed up their processing of the nominees. Apparently, they held over 2 circuit court nominees today, namely Amy Barrett and Joan Larsen. They need to pick up the pace on reporting them out of committee so the full Senate can confirm more.


          SC-03, Conservative Republican

            • rdelbov September 28, 2017 at 4:42 pm

              Where to start on today’s judicial matters?

              1st the Ds are still in a bit of snit over last week’s hearing–yes yes they had to work a three day work week. My goodness the pain!! So they delayed the final committee vote for Larsen and Barrett. Oh the excuse it they want time to study candidate responses but as Senator Whitehouse said last week it all blather and platitudes anyway but democrats are being democrats.

              2nd In LA apparently Judge Clement Brown’s decision to take senior status allowed GOP senators to sort out matters and the top two candidates both get spots on 5th circuit.

              3rd in TX there are 3 or 4 leading candidates for two spots on 5th circuit and it looked like a stalemate as senators and a governor could not agree on two nominees. Honestly a potentially great conservative nominee for the Circuit missed but on the plus side there are three R judges on the 5th circuit who over the age of 70 and eligible for senior status. Not a doubt in my mind we will see more vacancies on this circuit for TX conservatives to fill.

              • prsteve11 September 28, 2017 at 4:49 pm

                I hope that Larsen and Barrett get votes next week as I think the Dems can only delay by one week?


                SC-03, Conservative Republican

                • rdelbov September 28, 2017 at 5:07 pm

                  Only one week while Barrett got hard IMO she easily clears committee and senate. Ditto for Larsen. Trump and the GOP has to just keep throwing nominees out there.

                • krazen1211 September 28, 2017 at 6:01 pm

                  Yeah, the one week block is basically an automatic thing….its used most of the time. I have no idea why to have such a rule. We are moving at a good pace and 1-2 per month is plenty.

                  My expectation is that Texas will leapfrog some of the other waiting seats due to the pending Texas voter ID and even redistricting cases, as well as the 2nd ranking Republican.

                  • rdelbov September 28, 2017 at 6:20 pm

                    My best guess is about 2 circuit court judges per month and maybe 4 district–I suspect we will see more district judges next month. I assume senator Bennett has signed off on Daniel Domenico in CO–highly qualified nominee for a district court spot.

                  • prsteve11 September 28, 2017 at 7:40 pm

                    Yes two per month would be a pretty good clip, just so long as they maintain it.


                    SC-03, Conservative Republican

                    • rdelbov September 28, 2017 at 10:01 pm

                      Several other Trump nominations got the Well Qualified rating from the ABA and Bibas from the 3rd got his blue slip from Casey turned in. Its a bit like pulling teeth for the White House on some Blue state nominees. Typical of this process is Delaware. The two likely court nominees are two well respected lawyers who are litigators but are not seen highly political

                      http://www.delawarelawweekly.com/id=1202798714754/Sources-Trump-to-Tap-Connolly-Noreika-for-Delaware-District-Court

                    • w920us September 28, 2017 at 10:34 pm

                      Speaking of DE, Colm Connolly was unfairly blue-slipped by Biden a decade ago.


                      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
                      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

                    • rdelbov September 28, 2017 at 10:52 pm

                      Good catch as Biden just refused to okay the well qualified Connonly. Funny how slow walking Bush 43’s nominations was good politics for the Ds while Rs holding up Obama’s nominations was a travesty!!

                    • w920us September 28, 2017 at 10:57 pm

                      Sources: Trump to Tap Connolly, Noreika for Delaware District Court
                      http://www.delawarelawweekly.com/id=1202798714754/Sources-Trump-to-Tap-Connolly-Noreika-for-Delaware-District-Court

                      Nice, according to this article, Carper and Coons interviewed 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats for the two slots. And actually forwarded 2 Republicans and 1 Democrat to the White House as their recommended picks. One of the 2 Republicans withdrew from the process after his name was forwarded.


                      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
                      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • w920us September 28, 2017 at 1:32 pm

        FYI, Warren was the one no vote.


        R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
        #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • Conservative First September 28, 2017 at 12:16 pm

    The “Congress” link in the roundup goes to the Pat Miles story.

  • rdw72777 September 28, 2017 at 12:46 pm

    Is holding Price accountable really “throwing him under the bus”.

    • segmentation_fault September 28, 2017 at 12:52 pm

      You’re right. With Sessions, Trump was projecting his own idiocy onto him. But Price is fully at fault.

      There is some hypocrisy though, because like Price rips off the American people, Trump has ripped people off plenty of times in the past.

  • Izengabe September 28, 2017 at 1:15 pm

    NY-AD 102: NY Assemblyman Peter Lopez (R) has been appointed the Region 2 administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency. Lopez briefly ran for NY-19 in 2016 before dropping out and deferring to John Faso. Gov. Cuomo can call a special election or keep the seat open until next November.:
    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2017/09/peter-lopez-to-lead-epas-region-2/


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • shamlet September 28, 2017 at 1:30 pm

    Quick AL-Sen question: Anyone know why Strange did so well in Sumter County? Seems like it would be hardcore Moore country.


    R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 1:37 pm

      I think it’s small sample size that led to some variation in the electoral results. Not sure, though.

    • jncca September 28, 2017 at 2:59 pm

      Black Belt counties are pro-establishment often. Romney did well in them in the ’12 primaries.

      And I think the other Black Belt counties were near 50-50 this time around.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • jocallag September 28, 2017 at 1:54 pm

    Sumter is the poorest county in Alabama with a declining population. It is 75 per cent Black and votes that per cent Dem usually. It is home to the University of West Alabama and has significant historic sites

  • andrew_1918 September 28, 2017 at 2:20 pm

    New PPP national poll (9/22-25, D+9, Hillary +4): Trump Job Approval- 42/53
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_92817.pdf

    Also:
    “Q39 Do you agree or disagree that children brought to the U.S. by their immigrant parents, through no choice of their own, and raised their whole life in the U.S. should be allowed to stay and apply for U.S. citizenship?

    “(!!!) immigrant parents”

    I have no words. Looks like a “push poll”.

    • freego September 28, 2017 at 2:36 pm

      Agree on the pushiness of the question. For a (D) pollster that has typically given Dems good news for 2018, PPP has consistently had Trump’s approval higher than other pollsters such as Quinnipiac or Gallup. For a (D) pollster that has Hillary +4 in its sample, 42/53 really ain’t that bad.

      Interesting point is that this poll has Trump’s approval at 43/54, and his favorability at 41/51 (actually better than his favorability as a whole) with 18 to 29 year olds!!
      Those numbers seem a bit too high.


      24, M, Rockefeller Republican, VA-08

    • prsteve11 September 28, 2017 at 3:23 pm

      The only thing about this poll that sounds correct is the Trump job approval. The rest of it is just meant to make Dems feel warm and happy.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • freego September 28, 2017 at 4:09 pm

        Completely agree


        24, M, Rockefeller Republican, VA-08

    • district1 September 28, 2017 at 3:51 pm

      The fact is that this is a difficult question to poll without raising the potential for pushback about biasing the results.

      DACA only applies to people who arrived through no fault of their own as children, have not left the country, are working or in school, and have no criminal record. It’s hard to explain DACA in a survey question without explicitly stating those restrictions, which sound like political messages but are in truth a straight description of the program.

      Of course, it’s precisely because the beneficiaries of the program are so sympathetic that DACA is popular and Trump’s decision to end it has put Republicans in a difficult position.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

  • Manhatlibertarian September 28, 2017 at 2:21 pm

    Thursday Tidbits- NY

    GOP State Senator Phil Boyle, was lost the GOP Primary for Suffolk County Sheriff to Larry Zacarese, will not seek that office on the Conservative or Independence Party lines. These lines will instead likely go to Dem candidate for Sheriff Errol Toulon.

    Independent candidate Bo Dietl will join GOP-Conservative candidate Nicole Malliotakis and Dem-Working Families Party candidate Bill deBlasio in the first NYC mayoral election debate. This is not good news for Malliotakis since he is more likely to take votes from her than deBlasio. and this gives him a platform and publicity.

    Dem Syracuse councilman Joe Nicoletti, who lost the Dem primary for Syracuse mayor to State DOL official Juanita Perez Williams, announced he will not after all campaign on the Working Families Party line, as he initially suggested he might. He has endorsed Perez Williams.

    Independent/Reform/Upstate Jobs Party candidate for Syracuse mayor, Ben Walsh has a lot more COH than the other candidates. He has $143,835 COH, GOP candidate Laura Lavine has $9758, Dem candidate Juanita Perez Williams has $11,331 and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins has $573. Walsh gets a lot of money from downtown real estate developers. He had tried to get the GOP nomination but the Syracuse GOP organization endorsed Lavine instead.

    As expected, NY House members from both parties came out against the provision in the GOP tax reform plan that would eliminate the federal deduction for state/local taxes. About 3.2 million New Yorkers take this deduction.

    Someone wrote in Donald Trump’s name in the Syracuse Dem primary for civil court judge. Go figure!

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

    • zbigreddogz September 28, 2017 at 3:11 pm

      If Trump’s approval is 42 November of next year, R’s probably hold the House and pick up a seat or three in the Senate.

      • The Zenome Project September 28, 2017 at 3:33 pm

        Trump’s approval ratings have actually been very consistent from the day he was inaugurated, which leads me to think that the same people that liked him before are the same people that like him now, and vice versa.

        • prsteve11 September 28, 2017 at 3:44 pm

          Yes, especially among registered/likely voters which is the only number that really matters. Even the partisans at PPP find Trump with a 42% JA.


          SC-03, Conservative Republican

        • zbigreddogz September 28, 2017 at 3:48 pm

          Uhh…depends on what polls you believe.

          I tend to think he’s dropped somewhat but not huge.

  • Izengabe September 28, 2017 at 3:08 pm

    OH-Gov: Jim Renacci hates cats:
    https://youtu.be/-gTX7ej94Lc


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Izengabe September 28, 2017 at 3:16 pm

      Of note in Jim Renacci’s ad assailing career politicians he fails to mention that he’s been a member of Congress for the last 7 years and before that he served 2 terms as Mayor Wadsworth, OH and as City Council President there as well. Yes he’s a businessman who has made a lot of money before entering politics but if you spent most of the last 15 years in public office you may be a career politician!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Left Coast Libertarian September 28, 2017 at 3:44 pm

        Luther Strange lost because he was a Washington insider and he’d been in Washington for 7 months!

        • zbigreddogz September 28, 2017 at 3:47 pm

          He also worked as a LOBBYIST!!!

          OMG!

      • zbigreddogz September 28, 2017 at 3:47 pm

        Truman said, “A bureaucrat is a Democrat that has a job that a Republican wants.”

        Seems to me a “Career politician,” is usually someone who has succeeded in getting an office you want.

        I mean, yes, you have people like Ed Markey who have literally been in office since their mid 20’s and are now pushing 70, but in general it’s a term that isn’t applied very carefully.

  • zbigreddogz September 28, 2017 at 4:09 pm

    Those Scott/Nelson numbers are really good for Scott. Particularly since, at a moment’s notice, he can essentially put his foot on Nelson’s throat and not let up since he has more money than Allah/Jehovah/Buddha or whatever other deity you worship.

  • Izengabe September 28, 2017 at 4:29 pm

    WATN Corruption update:

    Former Rep. Vance McAllister (R) is having a bad day. The man once known as the “kissing Congressman” has and arrest warrent issued against him for failure to appear in court last week for a debt collection hearing. McAllister faces a charge of contempt of court for his repeated failure to appear at court.

    Former Rep. Mel Reynolds (D) is having a worst day. He was convicted on all four counts of failing to file a federal income tax return for four consecutive years. Reynolds is no stranger to the criminal justice system. The scumbag was booted out of Congress in 1995 when he was convicted of having sex with a 16 year old child. He was also later convicted of 16 unrelated counts of bank fraud and misusing campaign funds. Reynolds was also arrested in Zimbabwe in 2014 for overstaying his visa and being in possession of pornographic materials. The guy is a real loser:
    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-met-mel-reynolds-tax-trial-20170928-story.html


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • ike56 September 28, 2017 at 5:19 pm

      So, let me get this straight; Mel Reynolds is a

      (i) tax cheat
      (ii) pedophile/statutory rapist
      (iii) illegal immigrant (in Zimbabwe), &
      (iv) p*rn addict

      Sounds just like the type of guy who would be granted clemency by Bill Clinton!😉


      38, USN CPO (CA-52, stuck with Scott Peters until a good candidate comes along).

      • TexasR September 28, 2017 at 5:43 pm

        Given that I and IV also describe the Donald, are we certain that Reynolds wouldn’t also be under consideration for a pardon from him?


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        Be careful what you wish for

    • davybaby September 28, 2017 at 5:28 pm

      If McAllister is being sued over a debt and he doesn’t show up, wouldn’t a default judgement be entered against him?

      • Izengabe September 28, 2017 at 10:49 pm

        It’s Louisana. Their laws are strange. They could force him to wrestle an alligator or just tar and feather him for all I know.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • w920us September 28, 2017 at 5:36 pm

    LOL. And people wonder why they’re fed up with these SJW types.

    Librarian rejects First Lady Melania Trump’s donation of Dr. Seuss books, calls author racist, cliched
    http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2017/09/dr_seuss_melania_trump.html


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • Greyhound September 28, 2017 at 6:09 pm

      At this rate I’m curious when these people will decide that Obama was a racist bigot whose name should be stricken from the public records for his crimes against wokeness in the same way they have about literally every other president before him.


      R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

      • shamlet September 28, 2017 at 6:11 pm

        Probably in about 50 years. That seems to be roughly the length of time for the left-wing people that remember supporting said president to die or regain sanity and for the next generation to conclude he was awful.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • segmentation_fault September 28, 2017 at 6:36 pm

          Left-wing people have concluded that JFK was awful? What?

          • w920us September 28, 2017 at 6:44 pm

            Some will last longer than the 50 years. But at some point the nutty left will cut them loose.


            R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
            #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

          • Greyhound September 28, 2017 at 7:10 pm

            You mean the Racist Imperialist who started the Vietnam war, refused to sufficiently champion civil rights, threatened nuclear war twice, cut taxes, and supported the bay of pigs counter-revolutionary coup against the Castros in Cuba?

            Him and MLK have gotten some slack on account of getting shot in their prime, but its already started and just a matter of time. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Atlantic runs a piece talking about MJK’s failures to support the LGBT cause or something in a few years.


            R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

            • segmentation_fault September 28, 2017 at 9:07 pm

              I’m sure there are some sociology professors who will subscribe to that but by and large Democrats have a very favorable opinion of JFK. (And LBJ and FDR, even though there is a lot more to criticize them on.) IMO in 50 years Obama will be remembered as a JFK-like figure. (Half of that is just being good-looking and well-spoken.)

              • davybaby September 29, 2017 at 1:25 am

                As a Democrat, I would rank the post-World War II presidents as follows:
                1. Barack Obama
                2. Jed Bartlet
                3. Bill Clinton
                4. John Kennedy

      • Indy1975a September 28, 2017 at 7:06 pm

        Most of the BernieorBust/Jill Stein hard left already have concluded that.


        Independent, R until November 2016. Proud "Globalist Cuck"!

    • Izengabe September 28, 2017 at 10:59 pm

      We will not be keeping these titles today. We will not be keeping these titles anyway. We will not put Trump’s gift in a box. We will not wear our birkenstocks with socks. I am SJW I am I do not like Donald Trump the man…..


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • cer September 28, 2017 at 5:45 pm

    More good news for the Fed courts. “President Trump’s latest batch of judicial nominees include Texas Supreme Court Justice Don Willett and former Texas Solicitor General James Ho.” Both of these nominees will help to fill empty seats on the 5th Circuit.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/stalemate-over-texas-court-vacancies-ends-as-trump?utm_term=.qa8DMbLow#.piNKm6B01


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • w920us September 28, 2017 at 6:52 pm

      Would Willett count as an example of Trump getting over an individual dissing him in the past?


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

  • Boehnerwasright September 28, 2017 at 6:00 pm

    I’ m taking bets how long until Price is resigning. He was ineffective in the healthcare repeal and replace disaster. The whole private plane affair seems to get worse and I doubt that him paying back only 50k of the 400k cost of private charter planes will end the affair.
    (http://www.npr.org/2017/09/28/554328239/price-says-he-will-pay-for-travel-on-private-planes)

    I think it would help Trump to make Price resign and install an effective ethic office. One of Trump’s biggest draws was him being an outsider and promises to drain the swamp. Way harder to run on that in 2020 if there is a steady stream of stories, detailing how his appointees and family take advantage of his presidency.

  • krazen1211 September 28, 2017 at 6:18 pm

    And Jeff Flake continues his whatever routine. I am pretty sure Moore will be a Senator much longer than Flake.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeff-flake-says-republicans-should-speak-out-on-roy-moores-past-comments/

    The good news is I think he is going to just retire.

    • cer September 28, 2017 at 6:47 pm

      A strong conservative GOPER needs to primary Flake! His act is getting really tiresome.


      Conservative first, Republican second!

      • TexasR September 28, 2017 at 7:14 pm

        Uh…have you looked into Moore’s past statements? They’re…well, I won’t even repeat them, but suffice it to say, they’re pretty awful.


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        Be careful what you wish for

    • Tekzilla September 28, 2017 at 7:00 pm

      I don’t agree with Flake much but people of all parties should denounce Roy Moore and some of his views/what he’s said.


      36/M/NY-01 (D)

      • HS September 28, 2017 at 11:25 pm

        So we have to denounce Moore too? Along with Trump? So many to keep up with now. Thanks for keeping on top of this for us.

        Tell me, did you ever denounce Keith Ellison? The Deputy Chair of your party, who spent a decade with the Nation of Islam. How about Bob Byrd the KKK Kleagle? How about Ted Kennedy the coward who killed an innocent woman? Just wondering.

    • andyroo312 September 28, 2017 at 7:14 pm

      But he’s a million percent right on this. Moore is gonna provide Democrats with heaps upon heaps of fodder over the coming years.


      MA-7

      • TexasR September 28, 2017 at 7:20 pm

        @andyroo, You see, in Trumpworld, long-term damage to the brand doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is that Roy Moore being a senator will “make liberals’ heads explode.”


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        Be careful what you wish for

        • district1 September 28, 2017 at 7:38 pm

          The most common line we’re hearing now is that he’ll be a vote for tax reform but even that doesn’t seem like a sure thing.


          ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

          • Left Coast Libertarian September 28, 2017 at 7:53 pm

            From his rhetoric during the campaign I get the feeling that he’ll vote against anything Washington Republicans are for. He said he opposed the healthcare bill because it wasn’t conservative enough.

            • TexasR September 28, 2017 at 7:55 pm

              Fake news! I doubt Roy Moore knows what a healthcare bill is, or what it would actually do, nor do I think he cares about the specifics beyond pushing for it to do something like outlaw abortion.


              Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
              Be careful what you wish for

        • cer September 28, 2017 at 8:35 pm

          TEXASR, most conservatives in general “make liberals heads explode.” Anyways, I wanted Brooks instead of Strange or Moore, but the AL. Republicans had different ideas.


          Conservative first, Republican second!

      • krazen1211 September 28, 2017 at 7:55 pm

        Nah, when it comes to elections people like Jeff Flake are basically wrong on everything. But I guess he is mostly motivated by getting liberals to like him and buy his book.

        For his own survival Flake might also want to weigh in on his fellow lying weasel from Arizona who keeps voting for Obamacare.

        • OGGoldy September 28, 2017 at 8:01 pm

          Attacking the POW with cancer isn’t a good way to earn John Q. Public’s support back.

      • cer September 28, 2017 at 8:31 pm

        Moore will change his tune somewhat once he gets to the Senate.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • StatenIslandTest September 29, 2017 at 12:15 am

          I wouldve probably preferred Strange but I dont think Moore is going to somehow convince centrist Independents in Florida or Michigan to vote Democratic because of his views. Everyone knows even within political parties there are certain views that are acceptable by region. I dont think Bill Nelson loses votes because of Elizabeth Warren and I dont think Pat Toomey loses votes because of Roy Moore. All it may do increase the reputation of the Rs a Southern/Rural oriented party more than anything else.

          So is Jeff Flake going to endorse Doug Jones? Frankly I think I rather have Jones in the Senate at this point than Flake.


          31, Jersey City

        • Boehnerwasright September 29, 2017 at 1:26 am

          Just like Trump did? 😉

          I don’t think it is likely Moore changes much and why would he? He won against McConnel, Trump and their allies and has no debt to them. He is old enough to have no future political ambitions and might not even run for re-election. And even if he wants to run for re-election the republican primary is where he would loose, so why moderate?
          Few people change at Moores age and he has few outside incentives to moderate.

  • Mike1965 September 28, 2017 at 6:55 pm

    https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/913537026590433280

    Kyrsten Sinema running for the United States Senate


    #ThanksObama

    • Manhatlibertarian September 28, 2017 at 7:49 pm

      No surprise. Has a good shot what with GOP in disarray over Flake. If she does win at least she is a Blue Dog Dem, particularly in areas like holding the line on expensive gov’t programs, immigration, economic policy.

      • jncca September 28, 2017 at 8:13 pm

        I’d guess she will move left once elected to the Senate (although not overwhelmingly so). Arizona appears unlikely to be a red states by 2024 (although I also doubt it will be blue), so she could feel free to be an inoffensive liberal type like Sherrod Brown or Tom Harkin and vote that way, figuring that unless it’s a bad Dem year, she’ll win on presidential turnout and the growing Hispanic population.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • cer September 28, 2017 at 8:38 pm

          Flake needs to end his re-election bid, and get someone who at least has his head in it to begin with….


          Conservative first, Republican second!

        • Manhatlibertarian September 28, 2017 at 9:28 pm

          Well Brown and Harkin are pretty liberal, so she would really have to do an about face if he started voting like them in the Senate. I think she is a social liberal but not so liberal on other matters from what she says; so the question is do you think her Blue Dog centrism is just posturing or what she really believes in. The Hispanic population of Arizona is about 30% and may be increasing but so is the population of white retirees moving into the state; also a number of Hispanics are not citizens and can’t vote. So I don’t know if I would knock Arizona out of the red state column that quickly.

          • StatenIslandTest September 29, 2017 at 12:19 am

            Id be so happy to trade Flake to get Barletta. In fact at this point I think its more likely Kid Rock or Barletta is in the Senate in 2019 than Flake.


            31, Jersey City

  • w920us September 28, 2017 at 7:00 pm

    Also in Senate news…

    Senate approves Huntsman as Russia ambassador
    http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/352980-senate-approves-trumps-russia-ambassador


    R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
    #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

    • Jon September 28, 2017 at 7:10 pm

      The other way of getting rid of potential primary challengers: Appoint them as ambassadors to other countries.


      45, M, MO-02

      • OGGoldy September 28, 2017 at 7:59 pm

        2-term governor, Ambassador to Russia, China and Singapore, and has served in Every administration since Reagan. Most qualified potential presidential candidate for either party? Maybe Biden, Jindal, or Cuomo could have an argument made for them, but Huntsman’s resume reads like some fantasy world level presidential material. Weird.

        • Wahoowa September 29, 2017 at 1:59 am

          I remind everyone of James Buchanan, the last “most qualified person possible (on paper)” to hold the office


          CO-7

        • davybaby September 29, 2017 at 9:48 am

          One of Huntsman’s daughters is married to the son of Gloria Borger of CNN.

      • segmentation_fault September 28, 2017 at 9:09 pm

        Lol… is this supposed to be sarcasm? Obama made Huntsman an ambassador to get rid of him, and then Huntsman ran against him.

    • Left Coast Libertarian September 28, 2017 at 7:54 pm

      Can you believe how brazen Trump is in being in bed with the Russians? He actually is sending someone to Moscow to get messages from Putin!

      • Manhatlibertarian September 28, 2017 at 9:10 pm

        What more proof could you want!

      • segmentation_fault September 28, 2017 at 9:13 pm

        Don’t say Trump, bed, and Moscow in the same post. That’s gross.

  • Manhatlibertarian September 28, 2017 at 8:10 pm

    Here’s a New York trivia question for you. What NYC borough had a GOP Borough President and Congressman in the 1960s and a GOP State Senator until 2004 (hint not Staten Island). Score even more points if you can name the fairly well known person today who succeeded the Republican in the State Senate.
    I will come back in about 20 minutes with the answer if no one gets it.

    • TexasR September 28, 2017 at 8:17 pm

      The Bronx.


      Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
      Be careful what you wish for

      • Manhatlibertarian September 28, 2017 at 8:52 pm

        Very good! You may be from Texas but you know your NY politics. Joe Periconi was GOP Bronx Borough Pres from 1961-1965 and Paul Fino was a GOP Congressman from the Bronx from 1953 to 1968. Guy Velella was a Bronx GOP State Senator until 2004, when he had to leave the State Senate after he admitted taking bribes. He was succeeded by Dem Jeff Klein, who is now the leader of the breakaway IDC Dem faction in the State Senate that is loosely aligned with the GOP (for now at least). The Bronx now is about 90% minority and there are no current GOP office holders from the borough.

        • Izengabe September 28, 2017 at 11:15 pm

          I’m only seeing this now otherwise you would have had an instant answer.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • shamlet September 29, 2017 at 9:44 am

          I was wondering why you were considering Guy Velella well-known today, because that was my first thought as to Calandra’s successor!


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

  • district1 September 28, 2017 at 8:30 pm

    Relevant to the previous DACA/immigration post – per Fox News tracking, support for deporting illegal immigrants is down from 30% in July 2015 to 14% now.

    https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/status/913546363815706624


    ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

    • Manhatlibertarian September 28, 2017 at 9:07 pm

      The poll asks should we legalize illegal immigrants here, but legalize not not necessarily mean give them citizenship. Could mean to some granting them work permits and an extended “legal” presence here but not making them citizens.

      • Left Coast Libertarian September 28, 2017 at 9:57 pm

        I clicked on the full poll and got nothing. This is a really bad question. “What should happen to illegal immigrants working in the U.S.?” If that’s what they asked it’s a really vague question. How do you define “working?” Does that mean full time on a payroll? Does it include the guy selling fruit on the corner? What about when people are between jobs?

        What does legalize mean? If you’re a liberal it might mean to give them free healthcare and be able to get unemployment and welfare. If you’re a conservative that might mean the person has to pay high taxes and not get any benefits.

        I do think this tells us that a lot of people want a guest worker program, but that might not poll as well if people think immigrants are taking away American jobs.

      • district1 September 29, 2017 at 1:38 am

        Another question, similar result:
        https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/913637513259974656

        The key data point of interest to me in the Fox poll is the trend.

        There are lots of ways of getting at this question but like banning abortion, the maximalist extreme view is a tiny minority and in the case of immigration the share holding that view appears to be shrinking.


        ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

  • Manhatlibertarian September 28, 2017 at 8:37 pm

    Well will Dems take a real shot at electing Doug Jones now that controversial Roy Moore got the GOP nomination? This article points out that Black Dems in particular like Jones (who is white) at least in part because he prosecuted KKK members for a Birmingham Church bombing when he was a US Attorney. Black members of Congress are pushing the DSCC to send money to Jones. Joe Biden, likes him, and will appear at a rally for him in Birmingham next week. Some Dems also point out Moore only got 51% of the vote for State Supreme Court in 2012 while Romney was getting 60%. The DSCC will conduct polls to see if funding Jones is worthwhile. The hope is Moore is so far out that even a number of Repubs won’t vote for him (I wouldn’t but then I’m not an Alabama Repub).

    But on the other hand:

    The Black population of Alabama is about 26% and the Hispanic population is very small, so Jones needs a lot of white voters to win even if there is good Black turnout.

    Jones has taken fairly liberal positions so he may not be centrist enough to carry a state where the National Dem label can be toxic unless you can differentiate yourself from it to some degree (like say John Bel Edwards).

    Dems have been burned in special elections in Montana and Georgia, so will they be willing to take out the checkbook big time again for what is likely to be an uphill struggle.

    The recent Emerson poll had Moore ahead by 22 points a discouraging number for Dems.

    A December special election may not have the very high turnout needed by Blacks and young voters for Jones to win.

    Stay tuned

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/27/alabama-special-election-2017-doug-jones-democrats-243204

    • StatenIslandTest September 29, 2017 at 12:22 am

      Jones best chance for a “Sister Souljah” move could be on immigration and trying to pass an infrastructure bill. African Americans arent particularly pro unfettered immigration and Alabama needs infrastructure investment to support its growing manufacturing. Plus he could potentially paint Moore as a future obstructionist. But its still an uphill battle.


      31, Jersey City

  • GerGOP September 28, 2017 at 9:51 pm

    So much for Marsha announcing or did I miss that?

    • Son_of_the_South September 28, 2017 at 10:23 pm

      No, but it’s expected.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

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