Political Roundup for October 6, 2017

Senate:

MO-Sen: Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) has taken another step towards getting in the race. A “Hawley Victory Committee” organization was filed with the FEC this week. The NRSC is also listed as a joint fundraising committee in the filing-a typical move for a campaign getting ready to launch. 3 other Republicans are currently running-2016 Libertarian presidential candidate Austin Petersen, retired Air Force pilot and University of Central Missouri Aviation Department assistant dean Tony Monetti, and Navy veteran Courtland Sykes.

TN-Sen: If you missed our special post on it yesterday, there was big news in this race as Gov. Bill Haslam (R) announced he would not run, followed soon by Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) getting into the race. With Haslam and Peyton Manning out, Blackburn appears to be the frontrunner for now.

House:

AZ-9: As expected, Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton (D) has announced he plans to run for Congress. Stanton, who is in his 2nd term as mayor has been expected to run for another office, although he had been looking at a statewide office. Stanton will be the overwhelming favorite on the Democratic side, although might not clear the field completely. Biologist Talia Fuentes was already in the race before Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) announced her plans to run for the US Senate. Former House Minority Leader Chad Campbell (D) has been considered a possible candidate, but many think he won’t run against Stanton. Because of Arizona’s resign to run law, Stanton will have to resign as mayor, although he won’t have to leave office until he submits his election petitions, which are due May 30. A special election will then be held to complete Stanton’s term through 2019.

CO-2: Businessman and gun control advocate Ken Toltz has announced he is running in the Democratic primary for this open seat. Toltz had been exploring a run ever since Rep. Jared Polis (D) announced he was giving up the seat to run for governor, but said Sunday’s mass shooting in Las Vegas motivated him in part to finally join the race. Toltz ran for Congress before in 2000 as the Democratic nominee in CO-6, losing by 12 points to then Rep. Tom Tancredo (R), a campaign in which he made gun control a major part of his platform in the wake of the Columbine shooting. Toltz is the 2nd Democrat to join the race in as many days-Nederland Mayor Kristopher Larsen joined the race on Wednesday. They join former University of Colorado Regent Joe Neguse, former Boulder County Democratic party Chairman Mark Williams, and minister Howard Dotson in the race on the Democratic side. No Republican has yet announced plans to run in the blue district.

CO-7: The last major challenger to Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) has dropped out. Dan Baer, formerly ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has dropped out of the race. Baer had been the last holdout to stay in the race after Perlmutter reversed course and decided to run for re-election to Congress after previously deciding to run for governor, a race he dropped out of, and then deciding he would just retire from politics. State Sens. Andy Kerr (D) and Dominick Moreno (D) and state Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D) dropped out of the race soon after Perlmutter got back in, but Baer stayed in, boosted by an impressive fundraising haul.

MA-3: State Rep. Juana Matias (D) is joining what is becoming a very crowded race to succeed Rep. Niki Tsongas (D). Other Democrats running are state Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D), Dan Koh, former chief of staff to Boston mayor Marty Walsh, Cambridge city councilor Nadeem Mazan, Lori Trahan, a former chief of staff to ex-Rep. Marty Meehan (D), and former Democratic LG nominee Steve Kerrigan. State Sen. Eileen Donoghue (D) is considering running as well. Rick Green, a businessman and founder of the Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance, became the first Republican to join the race on Wednesday.

MI-11: Businessman and lawyer Dan Haberman is joining the Democratic primary race for this open seat. Haberman joins former Obama Administration auto task force official Haley Stevens, and Fayrouz Saad, former head of the Office of Immigrant Affairs for Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan. Businesswoman Lena Epstein, who previously had been running for US Senate and former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski (R) are running on the Republican side; state Sen. Marty Knollenberg (R) and state Rep. Laura Cox (R) , among others are considering getting in as well.

NH-2: Dr. Stewart Levenson, former chairman of the Department of Medicine at Manchester’s VA Hospital and who was involved in a whisteblower complaint about the facility, is running for Congress as a Republican. Levenson joins former state Rep. Jack Flanagan (R) with businessman David McConville possibly joining as well in the race to face Rep. Annie Kuster (D).

PA-18: State Sen. Guy Reschenthaler (R) entered the race yesterday to replace Rep. Tim Murphy (R), who now has announced his resignation, effective Oct. 21. A special election will be held sometime next year to fill the seat. Reschenthaler seems to be the favorite among party insiders, although state Sen. Kim Ward (R) has announced she is running too. State Rep. Rick Saccone (R) will possibly run as well.

TN-7: If you missed the special post on it yesterday, after Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) announced her candidacy for US Senate, state Sen. Mark Green (R) followed by announcing his candidacy for her congressional seat, completing a winding political journey this year. Green had declared his intention to run for governor early in the year, a race he dropped out of after being nominated to be Secretary of the Army-but he dropped out of contention for that post after Democrats criticized some comments he had made in the past. He decided not to restart his candidacy for governor, but had been encouraged to challenge Sen. Bob Corker (R) before Corker decided to retire. Green now becomes the early frontrunner, but other Republicans are expected to run for the deep red seat.

Governor/state offices:

SC-Gov: State Rep. James Smith (D) yesterday became the first Democrat to announce a run for governor. Smith had been the only Democrat known to even be looking at the race. 4 Republicans are running-Gov. Henry McMaster (R), LG Kevin Bryant (R), former state Department of Health and Environmental Control director Catherine Templeton, and party-switching former D LG Yancey McGill (R).

FL-CFO: State Sen. Tom Lee (R) is running for Chief Financial Officer. Lee will be challenging appointed incumbent Jimmy Patronis (R) in the Republican primary. Patronis was appointed to the post in June by Gov. Rick Scott (R) after former CFO Jeff Atwater (R) resigned to become CFO of Florida Atlantic University. Lee was the Republican nominee for CFO in 2006, losing by 7 points to Democrat Alex Sink.

LA-Treas.: Dueling polls by two of the Republican candidates in the upcoming Oct. 14 primary show themselves ahead of the group of Republicans in the race. State Rep. John Schroder (R) and former Gov. Bobby Jindal administration official Angele Davis both have released polls showing them making the runoff with lone Democratic candidate Derrick Edwards. Interestingly, the third major Republican candidate, state Sen. Neil Riser (R), finishes in second among the Republicans in both polls with Davis in third in Schroder’s poll, and Schroder in third in Davis’s poll. Edwards leads all candidates in both polls, but should be a heavy underdog to whichever Republican emerges from the primary.

MI-AG: State House Speaker Tom Leonard (R) has announced he is running for Attorney General. Leonard joins state Sen. Tonya Schuitmaker (R) in the GOP primary. Former US Attorney Pat Miles and attorney Dana Nassel are running on the Democratic side. Nominees will be decided at party conventions after next year’s August primary.

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188 Comments

  • Midnight901 October 6, 2017 at 8:11 am

    Mike Pence’s chief of staff Nick Ayers told GOP donors that they should withhold money from Congressional Republicans and donate to their primary challengers (generally a more Trumpian breed thus far) if don’t deliver on tax reform legislation (or any legislation, really). Corker complained that this was “amateur hour”, but it seems a lot of donors are on board with Ayers’ anger. Being out of touch with your voters is one thing, being out of touch with your voters and your donors at the same time is quite a political feat.

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/us/politics/republicans-disarray-trump-senate-congress.html

    This story is actually the first I’ve heard of Thad Cochran’s health problems. What’s up with that? This piece makes it sound like he’s got something serious.

    Edit: Also apparently there’s this guy Jay Hailer, a rich lawyer down in Arizona who’s looking to primary Flake from the right; maybe he’s articulate enough to persuade the folks who sneer at Ward.

    • edtorres04 October 6, 2017 at 8:31 am

      Basically we have 2 awful candidates in Flake and Ward. One loves to pick fights for no reason, and the other is completely unelectable.

      • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 10:31 am

        Calling Kelli Ward unelectable is a laughable joke, especially considering that she’s one of the harshest critics of John McCain’s neocon foreign policy. The reason why many people who could be conservatives are turned off by their ideology is because they have reputations as warmongers in recent years, and none of the other potential nominees can make any claims to be non-interventionist like she can. Having a healthy, growing wing of anti-war conservatives will grow, not shrink, the potential voting base, especially among young people.

        • jncca October 6, 2017 at 10:43 am

          It will grow the base, but it will not go over well with the GOP electorate in general, which was never very libertarian-leaning and has grown much less so in the age of Trump.

          You continue to have opinions about the Republican Party that are not borne out by data, and it confuses me. It’s one thing to say that it’s what you want (which it is, and that’s fine). But the Republican Party is not a small-government party (Trump is President). It is not an isolationist-leaning party. And it is absolutely not a party, nor is America a country, where “conviction politics” is popular, as shown by the strong convictions of Rand Paul and the lack of convictions of our current president.


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 10:54 am

            The base of the party (particularly the activist side) is still small government and libertarian: Trump got in because there was a vacuum of anti-establishment fervor that none of the other candidates were truly able to fill. It wasn’t and never will be an ideology-based movement, but rather a cultural one. Also, foreign policy-wise, Trump is IMO sort of the middle step between Bush-style interventionism and the realist leanings of the GOP 30 years ago. Not exactly non-interventionism, but much better than in recent years.

            • Ryan_in_SEPA October 6, 2017 at 11:34 am

              The base is far from supporting of small government. The base supports FDR big government while opposing LBJ/Obama big government.


              31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

              • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 11:42 am

                Trump’s popular with the base despite of, not because of, his incoherence. Again, I think that you’re confusing a cultural phenomenon as being some sort of ideological shift. It isn’t: Trump IMO is purely a cultural phenomenon, the equivalent of the angry mob breaking a few windows at the US Capitol. It’s the reason why folks in the Freedom Caucus, who are generally actual fiscal conservatives, can be just as popular with the base as Trump can be. Once you start separating culture from politics, Trump’s popularity among the base makes more sense.

            • GOPTarHeel October 6, 2017 at 12:40 pm

              Ryan is exactly right: Republican voters are wary of regulations and may claim sympathy with libertarian causes, but support redistribution in certain contexts. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/technology/silicon-valley-politics.html

              Donors on the other hand are largely social moderates/fiscal conservatives.


              R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

        • HS October 6, 2017 at 10:55 am

          https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/07/21/politics/kfile-kelli-ward-mccain-diagnosis/index.html

          This is what makes her unelectable. I understand that politics is chock full of sleazy, horrible persons, often saying stupid things, but you simply don’t say these kind of things if you are running for office. It shows both stupidity and arrogance.

          • MikeFL October 6, 2017 at 11:09 am

            Yeah, and it’s not like this is Alabama.


            26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

          • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 11:11 am

            I think a lot of voters, including myself, felt the exact same way as she did when McCain was diagnosed. He is one of the most detestable and despicable people in the Senate, and it has IMO nothing to do with what he thinks about Trump. He constantly advocates for more war, whether it’s in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etc., at the cost of millions of American lives and billions of taxpayer dollars. He’s in favor of maintaining the draft, which in my eyes is a form of slavery that the government places on its citizens. The fact that he stubbornly sits in his chair and doesn’t resign is doing a disservice to his state and the American people.

            • Ryan_in_SEPA October 6, 2017 at 11:36 am

              Condoning people treating other human beings like crap is not tolerated here. This is your warning to behave in a civilized manner.


              31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

              • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 11:49 am

                I understand and will comply. Do understand though that I will continue to be highly critical of the most avidly pro-war factions of the party, which IMO needs to be systematically purged by the voters if they don’t resign on their own.

            • Red Oaks October 6, 2017 at 11:41 am

              You may personally hate McCain but the general electorate in AZ clearly does not as they have elected him Senator 6 times by margins of at least 12%. He consistently runs ahead of other GOP statewide candidates in AZ.


              MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

              • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 11:57 am

                What percentage of that vote is either of the “lesser of two evils” variety or the Democrats’ “he’s the good Republican!” variety? I understand that it’s a nearly impossible measure to figure out, but he’s always seemed to have mediocre to low approval ratings in his home state, especially in recent years.

            • LtNOWIS October 6, 2017 at 12:44 pm

              Millions of American lives? The US had lost about 1.2 million lives total in every war in our history. Including all of the supposedly enslaved conscripts in the Civil War and WWII.


              28, VA-11

    • Ryan_in_SEPA October 6, 2017 at 8:38 am

      Not a bad strategy. Part of this is driven by the entire national Republican political class being detached from any reasonable definition of average voters. One of the reasons I have been mocking the Political Staffer/Consultant Industrial Complex is that it is so harmful to winning elections and governing!


      31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • MikeFL October 6, 2017 at 9:21 am

      I don’t really see what this accomplishes. For all the sound and fury about Heller and Flake, they voted for the healthcare efforts and will vote for tax reform. McCain/Collins/Murkowski aren’t up in 2018, and Corker is retiring. Reform will pass the House since the optics are less bad than the repeal effort that passed.

      The real raison d’etre for any primary challenge is insufficient loyalty to Trump and his nationalistic tendencies, which the base is lapping up right now. Of course, this is a symptom of the establishment not being honest and providing real solutions to their voters, but instead treating them like idiots by placating the base with rhetorical red meat for the last decade.


      26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

      • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 10:23 am

        Flake is not nearly as conservative as he says he is. Indeed, when you check his Conservative Review scorecard, he has a failing grade of 53%. His conservative votes are increasing right now because it’s re-election season, but he’s made some egregiously bad votes in his Senate tenure. Some of my “favorites” are his confirmation votes in favor of Loretta Lynch for AG and Jeh Johnson for DHS Sec., cloture votes for egregious spending bills/debt limit increases and gun control bills, extending the Export-Import Bank (and he calls himself a fiscal conservative!), and voting against reducing foreign aid and reallocating it to domestic use (again, “fiscal conservative”).

        • MikeFL October 6, 2017 at 11:02 am

          Arizona also is turning into a swing state, and as much as I wish the base cared about fiscal conservatism, they clearly don’t as they elected Trump.


          26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

          • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 11:16 am

            A large portion of the base does care about fiscal conservatism, actually. They just care about anti-establishmentarianism more. The key is to fuse the two ideas together and associate one with the other.

            • rdw72777 October 6, 2017 at 11:23 am

              No they don’t. Fiscal conservatism is truly dead and it has been since GWB. They’ve cared about something more than fiscal conservatism for close to 20 years. It’s not even political, fiscal conservatism in it’s varied form on both sides of the aisle died in the early 2000’s. Politicians woke up one morning and said “we really have never seen if we can truly max-out this no-limit AmEx Black this credit card, so let’s try.”

              • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 11:28 am

                Politicians betraying constituents is not the same as constituents changing their beliefs. The reason the Tea Party was a thing to begin with was because fiscal conservatism is still alive with individual voters. Just watch the primaries next year if this pattern continues.

                • rdw72777 October 6, 2017 at 11:36 am

                  The Tea Party was not a fiscal conservative outfit….it just played one on TV. They hid behind deficits/debt but they were ostensibly against policies themselves; they’d be just fine with increasing debt/deficits incurred for their own priorities. Which is we are where we are today…

            • MikeFL October 6, 2017 at 12:20 pm

              I think you’re grossly overestimating the amount of the base that cares about fiscal conservatism. And I think it’s become fairly obvious that the tea party was more about nationalism and identity politics than anything. I wish it wasn’t the case since it’s why I still vote Republican (the party is still better on it than the Dems) because I’m not socially conservative at all and am completely against this economic/white nationalism streak en vogue right now.


              26 | FL-16/27 | FisCon

          • Midnight901 October 6, 2017 at 12:39 pm

            I suspect that if fiscal conservatives gave the base something they wanted, they might get some support in return. A right turn on immigration, for starters. And not “actually, flooding the country with cheap labor to appease business interests is very conservative, you should be happy about this!”.

            Mark Meadows seems to have fairly good instincts for this sort of thing, which is why I think he’d make a better Speaker than Paul Ryan.

        • Izengabe October 6, 2017 at 11:16 am

          LOL! Conservative Review score? Really? According to their insane scoring Pat Toomey is also a liberal. Hell they give Mitch McConnell a 42 score. And what “liberal” votes did Flake take against CR’s score? He voted for free trade (fast track of TPP), he voted to confirm Obama’s Homeland Security head Jeh Johnsosn and a few other cabinet nominees and voted for some immigration bills they disagreed with.

          Look to real voting scores not this fake CR nonsense. American Conserviative Union is the go to conservative score keeper. Flake’s lifetime ACU score is 93 (the same as that liberal former Sen. Jeff Sessions):
          http://acuratings.conservative.org/acu-federal-legislative-ratings/?year1=2016&chamber=13&state1=0&sortable=6

          Flake’s lifetime Club for Growth Score is 96! That’s the same lifetime score as Ted Cruz and higher than Rand Paul and Marco Rubio:
          http://www.clubforgrowth.org/scorecards/?party=0&scyear=2016&chamber=-1&state=0&nm=&submit=Search&sort=lifescore&sortdir=desc

          538 has Flake voting with Trump 91% of the time (just like Luther Strange, Joni Ernst, Mike Lee and Pat Toomey):
          https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/

          Very few Senators have a more conservative voting record than Jeff Flake and chances are whoever his replacement will be will have a lower ACU and CfG score and have a more liberal voting record than Flake. But heck as long as they don a MAGA hat and say ridiculous things to stick it to the liberals who cares how they vote.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 11:25 am

            I tend to trust CR quite a bit, since they give descriptions under every single link about why each vote that they voted for matters more than others. They also tend to judge votes for cloture more harshly than the other rating scores that you’ve posted above, which is important to me because nominal “moderate” liberals will tend to do the same thing with issues like abortion, where they vote for cloture but not the actual bill. Also, Pat Toomey is most definitely a moderate, just a much better one than say Specter (Democrat in all but name): he has a good track record on fiscal conservatism, but also has supported measures like gun control in the past.

          • segmentation_fault October 6, 2017 at 11:32 am

            He supported Obama’s Cuba policy (which was a great policy IMO)


            En Marche!

          • Conservative First October 6, 2017 at 11:32 am

            Flake’s CFG scores have dropped from perfect to pretty good since he was elected to the senate.
            2005 100
            2006 100
            2007 100
            2008 100
            2009 100
            2010 100
            2011 100
            2012 96
            (elected to senate)
            2013 84
            2014 90
            2015 93
            2016 84

          • Manhatlibertarian October 6, 2017 at 1:50 pm

            I notice Tester gets a dismal 4 on the ACU score below people like Feinstein and King, who at least managed to get an 8. Yet he plays a good smoke and mirror game in Montana, pretending to be much more centrist than he is when you look at how he votes. He is even worse than McCaskill (who got a 12) and so he should be very vulnerable in Red Montana. But he is very good at creating a false perception, so he may survive.

            • Izengabe October 6, 2017 at 2:07 pm

              So you are saying Tester’s the anti-Flake?


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

              • CTIronman October 6, 2017 at 2:24 pm

                Being an actual farmer helps huge

      • Izengabe October 6, 2017 at 10:56 am

        Not only did Heller vote for the last Obamacare repeal bill he was on of the freaking sponsor! The bill was called Graham Cassidy Heller Johnson for pete’s sake! What more can of ask of Heller than that. Its not his fault McCain, Collins and Rand Paul kiboshed it.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • GerGOP October 6, 2017 at 11:35 am

          It always befuddles me that Paul never seems to draw the ire of conservatives like (rightfully) Collins and Murkowski… He is as much to blame as they are.

          • Ryan_in_SEPA October 6, 2017 at 11:38 am

            Nobody wants to be savagely attacked by the Ron Paul faction.


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • rdw72777 October 6, 2017 at 11:39 am

            Conservatives have never “taken ownership” of Ran Paul as a Conservative so they can’t be enraged or surprised. He’s an outsider caucus of 1 to pretty much everyone…

      • TexasR October 6, 2017 at 12:20 pm

        My guess is that Roy Moore’s win will make many donors cool on the party, so Ayers’ statement is a way for the Trumpian wing to shift blame elsewhere when the FEC reports show a drop in donations.


        Whatever we're talking about, it's all Frank Meyer's fault
        Be careful what you wish for

        • TennesseeMike October 6, 2017 at 1:55 pm

          I get that you hate Moore but saying one Senator from a very red state will make “many” donors cool on the entire party is silly.


          TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

          • Ryan_in_SEPA October 6, 2017 at 4:54 pm

            It is absurd. Nobody cares about Moore that much.


            31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • HS October 6, 2017 at 9:43 am

      Nick Ayers is totally correct about the GOP establishment being out of touch, but what is hilarious is that he is part of the consultant GOP establishment, and he certainly is not particularly pro-Trump.

    • FiveAngels October 6, 2017 at 10:32 am

      What’s interesting is that the Senate GOP sources are acknowledging that it is unlikely that McCain will live to see the 2018 midterms. As far as I know, there haven’t been any reports of him undergoing surgery to try and remove the tumor — which probably means that the tumor is considered unoperable. And that would really knock down his life expectancy from the already grim median. All decisions taken by potential Flake challengers should be viewed in light of this.

    • Republican Michigander October 6, 2017 at 10:33 am

      Corker’s complaint reminds me of Kasich’s arrogant “I’m the adult in the room” narrative that goes on while the “professionals” and “adults” are failures.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • FiveAngels October 6, 2017 at 10:41 am

        “Adult in the room” has long been one of my least favorite phrases associated with politics. It’s a dog whistle for “screw the unwashed masses, we know what’s best for everybody”.

    • district1 October 6, 2017 at 11:55 am

      As if Donald Trump is not the #1 reason that legislation has stalled.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

  • OGGoldy October 6, 2017 at 8:34 am

    MN-Gov:
    The longer this race goes on, the less likely I think AG Lori Swanson gets in at all. With Walz picking suburban State Rep Peggy Flanagan, it seems even less likely Swanson gets in. Flanagan is seen as a fast riser in DFL circles at 38 years old, and having been in elected office since 05. Former Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak, who holds considerable sway in Minneapolis, both culturally and politically, sounds like he is going to be actively campaigning for Walz in the primary. Rybak actually won the 2010 caucuses for governor, but the lengthy nomination process ultimately resulted in Mark Dayton being the nominee. With Collin Peterson also being on the Walz train, it’s hard to see anyone else getting the nomination at this point.

    • GorrestFump October 6, 2017 at 9:04 am

      Swanson must really like being AG, it’d be her fourth term if she ran again.

      • OGGoldy October 6, 2017 at 11:03 am

        The AG office has been the sole proprietorship of long term incumbents Democrats for many decades. Other than a single term in the 60s, Dems have held the office since Eisenhower’s first term.
        Swanson 12 years so far, Hubert H Humphrey III (son and namesake of the former VP) 16 years, Warren Spannus 12 years. Mike Hatch’s 8 years was considered a short tenure. In fact, the second to last Republican to hold that seat held it for 16 years from ’39-’55.

        With the lone (major) exception of Walter Mondale, the office has proven to be a dead end for career advancement for some reason. Oddly, State Auditor, generally regarded as a lesser office, has been far more fruitful at producing governors and senators than AG.

        • OGGoldy October 6, 2017 at 11:11 am

          And one of the longest holders of any statewide state offices was a Minnesota Auditor. Stafford King (GOP) was Minnesota’s Auditor for 38 years from 1931-1969.

    • Mike1965 October 6, 2017 at 6:56 pm

      FWIW there was a DFL governor candidates forum in Duluth today and from what I have read Walz was the target of most of the jabs from other candidates, a clear sign to me the others view him as the front runner.


      #ThanksObama

  • FiveAngels October 6, 2017 at 8:36 am

    Hawley trying to be proactive.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/05/josh-hawley-steve-bannon-senate-243511

  • Ryan_in_SEPA October 6, 2017 at 8:40 am

    Unemployment falls, jobs lost, wages gain:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/u-s-payrolls-fall-33-000-on-storms-jobless-rate-drops-to-4-2


    31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

    • Manhatlibertarian October 6, 2017 at 11:45 am

      Numbers are distorted because of hurricanes in Fla and Tx, causing payrolls to dip 33,000 but UI rate to drop to 4.2%. So not worth spending much time analyzing these numbers.

      • rdw72777 October 6, 2017 at 12:14 pm

        Oh there’s some usabledata to parse through. Incomplete data doesn’t mean to be ignored. You can see things like avg weekly hours, avg wage and other stuff where Harvey would have had a negligible impact and both of those were steady/meh. The only industry number that appears to be a crazy anomaly compared to August is Leisure/Hospitality which makes perfect sense. Professional services also seems a little low but nothing crazy. The rest are lower by about what you;d guess the hurricane impact might be, though at first glance it still looks like this would be a sub-200k month even without the hurricane (which isn’t disappointing and well within estimates).

        The actual topline number is useless but the report shows in general September was just another month not different from Jul/Aug.

        Also does anyone know how seasonality works for BLS? Will this years numbers be part of the seasonality calculation for future years?

  • andyroo312 October 6, 2017 at 9:59 am

    Beth Lindstrom will officially enter MA-Sen this weekend, with the endorsement of Bill Weld (who, keep in mind, backed Gabriel Gomez in the 2013 GOP primary).


    MA-7

  • GorrestFump October 6, 2017 at 11:30 am

    On Gillespie & MS-13 the rhetoric seems over the top I get the angle but it may fall flat with voters. Yes, the nice doctor with a southern drawl is fighting for violent gangs in VA. Maybe I am wrong and it is effective.

    • segmentation_fault October 6, 2017 at 11:33 am

      How many people outside of the Breitbart comments section are getting worked up about MS 13? I keep thinking it’s Mississippi’s 13th congressional district.


      En Marche!

      • HS October 6, 2017 at 11:41 am

        https://www.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

        Your party is certainly concerned about Gillespie.

        • GorrestFump October 6, 2017 at 11:46 am

          I would be concerned if they weren’t, Warner almost lost because he wasn’t concerned enough.

        • segmentation_fault October 6, 2017 at 11:48 am

          What does that have to do with MS-13?


          En Marche!

        • Manhatlibertarian October 6, 2017 at 12:30 pm

          Interesting that Northam is not getting that much $ from out of state donors although he was more $ than Gillespie according to the article. Meanwhile Jones in Alabama has raised over $800,000 just in the time period since Moore got the GOP nomination, much of it out of state. Sounds to me that blue state Dem donors are more enticed by the prospect of knocking off Moore in Red State Alabama than giving $ to Northam. But if Gillespie doesn’t get busy and raise more $ it doesn’t really matter if Northam is not getting much from out of state.

          • rdw72777 October 6, 2017 at 3:02 pm

            “Sounds to me that blue state Dem donors are more enticed by the prospect of knocking off Moore in Red State Alabama than giving $ to Northam.”

            This isn’t what it “sounds like” at all. Northam was never going to fundraise to a national audience nor did he even need to try. I personally don’t understand these Dem “the sky is falling” analysis pieces that simply gloss over the fact Northam is winning the money race and somehow find flaws with his fundraising.

            Northam has raised what $15M and over $1M from out of state. Has Jones even broken $1M and what like $35 dollars in-state since there aren’t many Dems in Alabama. Even if Jones has broken $1M, how is comparing the 2 candidates and their totals remotely relevant? And more importantly how does it paint Jones as the person Dem donors are donating to but not Northam? And why would out-of-state money portend to better electoral outcome than in-state money?

      • shamlet October 6, 2017 at 11:49 am

        It’s actually bigger than you might expect. The DC suburbs and Long Island are basically the only places MS-13 is seriously active but they’ve been a major crime syndicate here for a while.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • district1 October 6, 2017 at 11:54 am

        The new Ebola, which was be the subject of millions of dollars in scare ads and then was never mentioned again the day after the election.


        ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

        • GorrestFump October 6, 2017 at 11:57 am

          I had never heard of MS-13 outside of NatGeo docs before Trump was elected. I know the bloods and crips are still active but you don’t see TV ads about them.

          • district1 October 6, 2017 at 11:59 am

            But they aren’t Hispanic.


            ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

            • HS October 6, 2017 at 12:11 pm

              Wow, so you are saying that the evil racist Republicans favor black criminal gangs over Hispanic ones? That it a new Dem talking point. I thought it was supposed to be the other way around?

              • district1 October 6, 2017 at 12:27 pm

                The purpose of the ads is to show these pictures:

                https://www.google.com/search?q=ms-13+tattoo

                And to piggyback off of two years of Trump campaign messaging that successfully riled up Republicans in Virginia and around the country.

                So yes, the fact that MS-13 is Hispanic is the core reason Gillespie is focusing on them.


                ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

        • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 12:05 pm

          MS-13 are a rather nasty and murderous group of gangsters, and it’s particularly bad in NoVa because the largest Salvadoran immigrant population in America is over there, but the answer to stopping them is not necessarily more border enforcement and building a wall, but rather ending the War on Drugs and legalizing marijuana (among other drugs). Gangs get their power from the black market drug trade, and a fully legal market takes that power away from them.

      • Son_of_the_South October 6, 2017 at 12:01 pm

        Actually, the DC area has had an unusually high (and highly publicized) number of MS 13-related stabbings in the past few years. It’s scary to a lot of people because it’s not just happening in eastern MoCo (HQ of MS 13 in the US, supposedly), Annandale, Manassas, and Columbia Heights, but also in relatively wealthier, safer places like Centreville, Gaithersburg, and even McLean. In short, he might be being a bit over the top about it, but he’s not just inventing the problem.


        24, R, TN-09
        Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • fzw October 6, 2017 at 12:15 pm

          No, but he runs the risk of him making it his defining issue and turning it into mockery, for it could turn off persuadable voters. “Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!” reads like a parody and Northam should just run a response ad saying “it’s disgusting to suggest that a veteran doctor like myself is ‘fighting for MS-13 killer gangs’. I’ve done more to combat terrorism than Ed Gillespie ever has.”


          Currently MO-5. From MO-3.

      • californianintexas October 6, 2017 at 4:13 pm

        I thought the same thing for a bit until I remembered Mississippi never had more than 8 congressional districts.


        34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

      • Wahoowa October 6, 2017 at 5:20 pm

        When I worked for a certain Northern Virginia congressman, it was actually a huge issue.


        CO-7

    • Izengabe October 6, 2017 at 12:35 pm

      For context here is Gillespie’s MS-13 ad:
      https://youtu.be/o1zyZ_amkrY
      and here is Donald Trump’s Tweet supporting Gillespie that talks about MS-13:
      https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/916120435762266114

      To me the Gillespie ad is an old school GOP tough on crime ad (a modern day Willie Horton ad). Ads like this use to be standard fare in Republican campaigns back when the thought was a conservative was just a liberal who had been mugged. Gillespie (who I believe got his 1st job with the NRC in 1985 at the age of 24) is just going back to the well of what he knows. Tough on crime ads like this have historically been very effective at swinging suburban voters to the GOP. This MS-13 campaign is aimed at the NoVA swing voters who have been voting Democrats in droves. I thought it was a good ad and focusing on this can bring the Trumpkins home to Gillespie while at the same time bring scared of crime suburban voters back to GOP/


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • HS October 6, 2017 at 12:49 pm

        There is nothing wrong with Gillespies ads on MS 13. The Dems object because they are afraid that the ads are working. Same as the Willie Horton ad so long ago. As always, the Dems push back by screaming “racism”.

      • Manhatlibertarian October 6, 2017 at 1:34 pm

        But unlike past GOP anti crime ads this ties the crimes of the violent MS 13 gang to illegal immigration and in particular the surge of unaccompanied teenagers into the US. The National Dem party continues to downplay this, saying things like most illegal immigrants are law abiding. I’m sure they are, but when you turn a blind eye to those illegal immigrants who commit crimes I don’t think you are in sync with most voters. If they weren’t here in the first place because of our lack of really serious border enforcement these crimes wouldn’t be committed. So Northam can run an ad where he says I’m tough on crime (or course what is he going to say -I’m a squish on crime?) but he ignores the underlying issue of an immigration policy that has let these people into the country to begin with.

        The failure of political elites to respond to voter’s concern on this subject was one reason someone like Trump got elected. Still outside of Northern Va, where MS 13 is somewhat active, I don’t know how many votes this ad may bring to Gillespie. Probably ads painting Northam as a tax and spend liberal would be more effective. Right now Northam still has the edge in this purplish state, so Gillespie has to find issues that will put him into the lead.

  • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 12:16 pm

    I want to warn the moderators of the site that I have Asperger’s, so I sometimes lack understanding of social norms as far as expressing my political views is concerned. None of my comments or disagreements about certain politicians are out of any malice towards any user on this site. I hope that clarifies some of my more controversial tendencies.

    • Left Coast Libertarian October 6, 2017 at 12:38 pm

      That may explain your inability to conform to social norms but it doesn’t make it acceptable. I’m here because this isn’t one of those sites where people say whatever they want. Regular users here don’t throw horrible insults at politicians. There was some ire at Tim Murphy for doing what he did but there weren’t many people calling him what we all think of him. It serves no purpose really. One reason I don’t read DKE is that there’s too much about how awful and evil Republicans are.

      This site is about elections. Policy discussions are mostly discouraged and that’s one reason why people come here. Policy discussions on the Internet are mostly angry people talking past each other. I know I’ve participated in some because they draw out passionate held beliefs. Yet it’s not that productive.

      We generally don’t express how we feel about Bob Menendez or Jeff Flake’s voting record. We talk about how Bob Menendez’s trial will impact the New Jersey Senate election and Jeff Flake’s voting record will impact his re-election. Some people come here and don’t like the limitations. There are a lot of sites on the Internet to discuss the things I’ve mentioned. This site is fairly unique and has been for over six years. I’m glad they’ve kept it that way.

      Note: When mods bold a comment it’s meant to be listened to but never replied to. Replying to a bold comment is a step to getting banned. They don’t want to discuss it when it reaches the point of bold.

    • Izengabe October 6, 2017 at 12:42 pm

      Bold type face is for moderator use only. I would suggest you read our Term of Use which are our rules of the road here at RRH:
      http://rrhelections.com/index.php/terms-of-use/

      As a rule we try to discourage the “I like this or that” type of comments. This is not the place to talk about your love or hate of neo-cons/isolationists or whatever. Stick to discussing the horse race aspect of politics and stay away from policy issues and you should be fine.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Son_of_the_South October 6, 2017 at 12:52 pm

      I have Asperger’s as well, man. I know it’s tough, but you just have to rise above it and adapt to the world. Trust me, you can make a lot of progress when you start considering how other people perceive you and modifying your behavior so as to appear closer to ‘normal.’ Think of it as an infinite series of interlocking and overlapping pattern recognition puzzles to be solved. Eventually, you’ve plugged in the solutions you know so often that they become part of your true personality.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 1:03 pm

        I’m trying my best, thanks for the advice. It’s tough to understand what is right and wrong sometimes when writing on forums, though, because you don’t get the same warnings via facial expressions as you can from face-to-face conversation.

        • edtorres04 October 6, 2017 at 1:20 pm

          All you can do is try your best. Good luck in your efforts.

      • FreedomJim October 6, 2017 at 6:11 pm

        I have been diagnosed with Asperger’s Syndrome as well and appreciate all of your openness about the condition. I probably do not write enough on this site for anyone to notice it.

        • Jon October 6, 2017 at 6:41 pm

          From what I’ve read, Asperger’s is on a continuum rather than binary, which might place me somewhere on it; in any case from the stories I’ve read I recognize lots of similar characteristics in myself, just not quite to that extreme. (For instance I’m much more comfortable with written communication than oral.) I’ve been a software developer for over twenty years now. I’m also a singer in a large chorus, which has prevented me from turning into a complete hermit outside of work.


          45, M, MO-02

          • californianintexas October 6, 2017 at 7:30 pm

            I developed an interest in community gardening, which has also given me a life outside work. Some of that work is done in a greenhouse so I can continue gardening even in northern Utah winters.


            34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

            • Son_of_the_South October 6, 2017 at 9:27 pm

              For you a greenhouse, for me a cigar lounge.


              24, R, TN-09
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

    • californianintexas October 6, 2017 at 2:24 pm

      I have Asperger’s too and used to have problems on forums when I took attacks on liberals and Democrats, which I was at the time, personally and had to learn that just because people don’t like liberals, Democrats, or California in general doesn’t mean they don’t like me.

      I agree it isn’t easy but I try to act normal too, though I can get carried away from time to time when talking about California or election history. Sometimes I am tempted to talk about policy but learned to control myself to not do so after seeing too many derails on SSP/DKE and here.


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

      • TheWizardOf144 October 6, 2017 at 2:36 pm

        I’m not on the spectrum but I am the definition of INTJ so, very little difference in outcome. Never take anything said on the interwebs too seriously.

  • cer October 6, 2017 at 12:20 pm

    Rep Shea Porter(NH) not seeking re-election.

    https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/916337105206415361

    Doesn’t seem to fit the narrative that things are so rosy for the Dems in 2018.


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • krazen1211 October 6, 2017 at 12:28 pm

      Front page?

      • edtorres04 October 6, 2017 at 12:36 pm

        I wonder if Stephan will reconsider.

      • Izengabe October 6, 2017 at 12:47 pm

        Yes it has been front paged! Take the discussion there


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Boehnerwasright October 6, 2017 at 12:37 pm

      Shea Porter was seen as a weak candidate by many, national dems can’t be to sad about her leaving right now.

    • Manhatlibertarian October 6, 2017 at 12:41 pm

      Really surprising. She reclaims her seat and now drops out. True she only won by a few thousand votes against the incumbent but still there has to be some reason she is not running again.

    • GOPTarHeel October 6, 2017 at 12:47 pm

      And so the Guinta/Shea-Porter races are truly over now I suppose.


      R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

      • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 12:56 pm

        Dold-Schneider is ending next year, too, so the horse-race era comes to an end.

    • davybaby October 6, 2017 at 12:51 pm

      One of Mitt Romney’s umpteen homes is in Wolfeboro, in the district. Maybe he’ll run!

      🙂

  • freego October 6, 2017 at 12:40 pm

    I’m a fan of Eddie Edwards and his campaign, so I’d hope that he’s eventually the nominee. In any case, this is a nice break for the GOP in an election cycle where they need them in the House. Moves a Lean-D seat to Tossup.


    24, M, Rockefeller Republican, VA-08

  • Izengabe October 6, 2017 at 1:35 pm

    PA-18: From the #MilesIsAwesome file check out his good work on PA-18 filled with lots of maps!
    https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/open-seat-watch-pennsylvanias-18th-district/


    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • jncca October 6, 2017 at 1:45 pm

    They have a deal: Netherlands reaches coalition agreement about half a year after the election.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-parties-strike-coalition-deal-report-mark-rutte-netherlands-government/

    Government will consist of:

    VVD (culturally center-left establishment Republicans)
    CDA (Christian Democratic party)
    D66 (similar to US Democrats)
    CU (very religiously conservative Christians)

    Strange bedfellows.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • GOPTarHeel October 6, 2017 at 1:59 pm

      The CU is center-left on immigration issues and social spending but otherwise isn’t dramatically different from the CDA. They’re admittedly tougher on issues like euthanasia though. The truly conservative religious party is the SGP.


      R/NC. Waiting for a non-ossified establishment or sane populists. Not optimistic.

      • shamlet October 6, 2017 at 2:50 pm

        Yeah, I think I described the CU as being Pope Francis types when I wrote about the election, whereas the SGP are unreformed Johnathan Edwards type straight-up theocrats.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

      • jncca October 6, 2017 at 3:31 pm

        I didn’t say they were full-spectrum conservatives, just that they are very religiously conservative. I think that’s correct.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • Manhatlibertarian October 6, 2017 at 2:38 pm

    Friday NY Tidbits:

    In the latest Siena poll Cuomo has 57/35 fav/unfav ratings. When it comes to job performance 48% approve but 50% disapprove. When it comes to his re-election 52% favor him and 41% a generic someone else.

    The Q poll does not have good news for GOP candidate Malliotakis in her race for NYC mayor. The poll has 61% for deBlasio, 17% for her, 8% for Reform Party candidate Sal Albanese and 6% for independent candidate Bo Dietl. IMO the percentages for minor candidates seems high. But 64% of poll respondents say they really don’t know enough about Malliotakis to form an opinion about her, so she needs to get better known by voters.

    Dem candidate for Nassau CE Laura Curran was forced to fire a campaign aide who made offensive remarks about Blacks and Gays on social media.

    The Justice Dept. issued a grant of $500,000 to Suffolk County to fight gang violence (and particularly the MS 13 gang). The very violent MS 13 gang, composed basically of Central American immigrants, has been linked to 27 murders in Suffolk in the last 4 years.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

  • TheWizardOf144 October 6, 2017 at 2:39 pm

    If any form of gun control passes, next year’s primaries are going to be worse than imagined. The NRA is already catching holy hell for their…let’s say “tactical retreat”.

    A Republican Congress willing to pass new gun control but not repeal Obamacare is dead on arrival.

    • district1 October 6, 2017 at 2:49 pm

      Serious question, does banning bump stocks really count as “gun control”?


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

    • TennesseeMike October 6, 2017 at 3:01 pm

      I’m OK with banding bump stocks. And I’m very pro 2nd amendment, I don’t like gun registration. But I just think in today’s environment of terrorism and crazies we shouldn’t make automatic weapons in any form available to the public.


      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

      • TheWizardOf144 October 6, 2017 at 3:13 pm

        The 2nd Amendment has nothing to do with “sporting purposes”. I’ll leave it at that.

        • TennesseeMike October 6, 2017 at 3:22 pm

          I know that. I didn’t say anything about “sporting purposes”. Maybe I should define my statement more. IMO, machine guns and stuff to make other guns act like machine guns do not belong in the hands of just anyone. And I think gun control should stop about there. My use of the term “automatic weapons” was probably an incorrect usage.


          TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

    • Republican Michigander October 6, 2017 at 4:40 pm

      People talk about NRA as “militant,” but they are very forgiving compared to GOA or NAGS.

      While “bump stocks” isn’t worth dying on the hill over, if I am giving any ground whatsoever, I want national reciprocity out of the deal minimum.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • GoldenStatesman October 6, 2017 at 2:51 pm

    CA-Gov: UC Berkley IGS Poll http://escholarship.org/uc/item/2bq2p2wg#page-21

    Newsom (D) 26
    Cox (R) 11
    Tony Vilar (D) 10
    Allen (R) 9
    Chiang (D) 7
    Eastin (D) 4


    24, R, CA-38, Cubano, Community College Trustee

    • prsteve11 October 6, 2017 at 3:10 pm

      I hope the Republican makes it to the runoff, even if he loses, because it will at least give Republicans a reason for voting on Election Day – something that could be significant in helping vulnerable GOP CA House members.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • jncca October 6, 2017 at 3:34 pm

        It may make sense for the GOP voters to tactically boost Villar(aigosa) with hopes he can be governor, as he is to Newsom’s right. Conflicting interests here, since of course having a two-Dem runoff hurts in the Legislature.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • edtorres04 October 6, 2017 at 4:24 pm

          Will people even recognize Vilar on the ballot after he changed his name post-divorce?

          • Izengabe October 6, 2017 at 4:32 pm

            Will he now change his name to Villarvea or was that only a 1st wife thing.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • SlippingJimmy October 6, 2017 at 5:11 pm

          If Villar has any real chance at the governor’s mansion he should be able to make the runoff without tactical GOP votes.

          Certainly, though, in a Villar-Newsom matchup I would vote Villar in a heartbeat.


          Republican, TX-22.

    • Left Coast Libertarian October 6, 2017 at 3:39 pm

      You have an interesting dynamic here. If Gavin Newsom wants to be governor he needs to do everything he can to get people to vote Cox. He’d be 99% to beat Cox but 50%-50% to be Villaragosa. Newsom certainly has Republican friends. Find one that has some political connections and have him set up a Cox Super PAC. Mike Honda did it.

      The Democratic party, however, benefits more from a Democratic top two.

      • Izengabe October 6, 2017 at 4:07 pm

        Combined GOP vote is only 19% in this poll. It was closer to 40% in 2014. GOP’s best strategy is to hope another Dem jumps in or Newsom drops in the polls enough for a 2 GOP top two with each GOP candidate getting about 19% of the vote.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 4:14 pm

          California would have a 40-day flood of prog tears if that happened: conservatives could come out of their caves and huts for the first time like when the Soviet Union fell.

        • Left Coast Libertarian October 6, 2017 at 4:16 pm

          I fear that we’re not going to hit 40% again. Maybe 2016 was a disaster because there was no competitive Republican primary but registration is really moving against us. They hate Trump here. If there aren’t any well known Republicans and they aren’t spending more than a few million they might underachieve that 40%. We’re hurt that the seat is open. In 2014, either you were voting for the incumbent who you knew was going to win or you weren’t. This time your candidate needs your help.

          • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 4:21 pm

            I think the California registration figures are very distorted right now because of the top-two primary and the near-Twilight Zone levels of insanity in LA and SF. I’ve never been to California, but from what I’ve heard it’s almost dangerous to call yourself conservative in many parts of the state.

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 6, 2017 at 5:05 pm

              LA and SF aren’t really comparable. LA County voted like Chicago’s Cook County or New York City. 20-30% GOP or something.

              The Twilight Zone cities are like DC or SF.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

              • krazen1211 October 6, 2017 at 5:51 pm

                Well, even that is apples and oranges, right? Metro NYC voted about 64% D in 2016. Metro LA is close to 70%.

                At 31% I can see top 2 gaming. Hard to see at 26%.

                http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/ror-pages/ror-odd-year-2017/hist-reg-stats.pdf

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 6, 2017 at 6:05 pm

                  Well, metro SanFran isn’t much more conservative than SanFran proper, so at the very least, the differences between LA/Chicago/NYC seem pretty minor compared to the differences between these cities and San Francisco.


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • californianintexas October 6, 2017 at 5:32 pm

              As a native who has spent a lot of time studying the state’s electoral history, I wouldn’t be surprised if conservatives were seen that bad in many parts of S.F. and L.A. I grew up in a conservative city in then-center-left California. Now my hometown is at most center-right after conservatives moved out, to Arizona, Idaho, and Texas, and liberals from L.A. moved in.


              34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

            • Left Coast Libertarian October 6, 2017 at 6:09 pm

              It’s dangerous to put a Republican bumper sticker on your car or put up a Republican sign on your lawn, but it’s not dangerous to call yourself a conservative or to register as a Republican. While your registration is public if anyone wants to find out, people assume it’s confidential. While I’m sure some conservatives do register NPP, some liberals do too. The parties are increasingly unpopular.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 6, 2017 at 4:35 pm

            It’s not just Trump, but also why Trump is unpopular. Conservatives and moderates are moving en masse to other states while liberals move in, both from other states and abroad. That’s going to shift the state more and more into being a vote sink.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • californianintexas October 6, 2017 at 6:09 pm

              With Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego now having D PVIs and Orange on the cusp of a D PVI, it is hard to see Republicans competitive in the foreseeable future. Even Phil Angelides could win 2016 California.


              34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

              • Left Coast Libertarian October 6, 2017 at 6:11 pm

                While Republicans won’t win statewide any time soon I’d hazard at calling Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Democratic. Republicans have most supervisor seats in San Bernardino and San Diego and I don’t think a Democrat has ever won one in Riverside. The mayor of San Diego is a Republican.

                • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 6, 2017 at 6:14 pm

                  Democrats won San Diego County by 20 pts. That’s definitely Democratic.


                  I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

                  • Greyhound October 6, 2017 at 6:21 pm

                    Literally only Hawaii, California at-large, Maryland, New York, Vermont, and Massachusetts were better for Clinton than San Diego county.


                    R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

                    • Left Coast Libertarian October 6, 2017 at 9:20 pm

                      I write that while Clinton did well in these places they are much more Republican for every other office and you two refute my point by repeating something I already acknowledged. If Hillary Clinton runs against Donald Trump for all congressional, legislative, county, and municipal offices Trump will lose. And Clinton will have about 30 jobs at once.

                • californianintexas October 6, 2017 at 7:28 pm

                  Yes those 3 are not very Democratic below the presidential level and along with Orange are well within swing range as far as PVIs go. But if Republicans can’t win statewide (unless they are superstars or super-moderate or liberal) even while winning those counties, then if they are losing those 3 counties (like Emken in 2012) then winning statewide is practically impossible.


                  34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

          • californianintexas October 6, 2017 at 5:55 pm

            I too think Republicans hitting 40% in the foreseeable future is unlikely, with Democrats having made significant inroads in most metro area suburbs and having Clinton-Republican seats in Orange County on their radar. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dems did pick up some of those seats in 2018, though I also wouldn’t be surprised if those seats took a few cycles to flip.


            34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

        • Greyhound October 6, 2017 at 4:20 pm

          Such an outcome would last exactly as long as it takes to recall the Governor in question, remove top-2, and then consign the GOP to even more irrelevance than it already has in the state.


          R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

          • The Zenome Project October 6, 2017 at 4:29 pm

            It would be like the Rodney King moment for progressive leftists and Antifa. What kind of riots would we see in the streets of Berkeley and SF? The Dem voter dropoff in that scenario, though, could give a Caitlyn Jenner a shot at Feinstein’s Senate seat, which would be equally as hilarious.

          • Izengabe October 6, 2017 at 4:36 pm

            Yes but in the recall it is also a multi candidate race and the end result could be the GOP unifying around 1 candidate while the Dems split the vote 3 or 4 ways again!


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • jncca October 6, 2017 at 4:01 pm

      From the crosstabs:

      Villaraigosa is 5th with Whites and 4th with US-born voters. California is diverse but you can’t win like that.
      Newsom is killing it with progressives. Huge leads on environment, with upper-income voters, and with NorCal voters. Villaraigosa is not countering that with landslides among anyone except Hispanics, who have weak turnout. Newsom is leading Villaraigosa in SoCal, which is a recipe for a Harris-Sanchez map.


      24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

  • prsteve11 October 6, 2017 at 4:04 pm

    Interesting numbers from a Mitchell Research and Rosetta Stone poll of Michigan:

    – Stabenow leads Kid Rock by just 8 points (46%-38%)
    – President Trump would beat Hillary by 5 points if the election were held today
    – 43% approve of President Trump’s job performance while 51% disapprove

    Probably not a great pollster (their last poll had Hillary by 5 in Michigan in 2016) but it’s still interesting.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Rosetta_Stone_-_Mitchell_Poll_Kid_Rock_v_Stabenow_Press_Release_10-4-17_A.pdf


    SC-03, Conservative Republican

    • freego October 6, 2017 at 4:19 pm

      Yeah, I’ve always been a bit iffy on Mitchell Research, but the numbers here seem to make some sense.


      24, M, Rockefeller Republican, VA-08

  • freego October 6, 2017 at 4:18 pm

    Michigan Senate poll shows Stebanow with an 8 point lead over Kid Rock (46%-38%). The most interesting parts of this poll are outside of the Senate race (especially considering that Kid Rock might not even run).

    Trump’s approval rating in Michigan is 43%-51%, so not terrible but not great considering he won Michigan last year. Further on down, voters in the poll are split 44%-44% over whether they voted for Trump or Hillary in 2016. That’s pretty close to the actual margin in 2016. However, voters say that they would vote 44%-39% in a do-over election between Hillary and Trump. Trump’s voters seem to stay with him, while Hillary’s voters move over to third parties (11% total to third parties). This poll continues the narrative that however unpopular Trump is, he’s still more liked than Hillary (at least in the Midwest) and hasn’t collapsed yet in support in Michigan.


    24, M, Rockefeller Republican, VA-08

  • Left Coast Libertarian October 6, 2017 at 4:19 pm

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-california-atty-gen-becerra-threatens-1507316415-htmlstory.html

    “In a conference call with representatives from the American Civil Liberties Union and Planned Parenthood, Becerra told reporters that the federal action unlawfully discriminates against women.”

    Democrats aren’t shy that they are in the pockets of special interest groups because the media won’t depict that. Imagine a sentence like this, “In a conference call with representatives from the Alliance Defending Freedom and Family Research Council, the Republican attorney general…”

  • Conservative First October 6, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    MI-6/8 dem fundraising
    http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/10/05/slotkin-run-congress/106343490/

    • rdelbov October 7, 2017 at 12:55 pm

      Michigan US house races have been the great white whale for Ds. They keep hunting them but never quite catch them.

      Ingham county gives the Pelosi clone candidate a big base but frankly without inroads in Oakland county -its why bother time. Bishop has worked Ingham county as well and ran well ahead of Trump numbers in that county so maybe all of that D money makes it 55-45?

      MI6 if open might be a contest but Upton IMO will coast to re-election. In an open seat race it would all be about candidates and unless the GOP nominates a clunker that seat should stay R. Yes yes MI6 could be like some of the PA seats. You can find years where D candidates have carried either MI6/MI8 but unless the Rs nominate a very weak candidate they will win these seats unless the economy collapses.

      • Republican Michigander October 7, 2017 at 6:17 pm

        MI6 and MI8 under the current borders have gone D twice in the past 20 years at the top of the ticket. 2006 and 2008, both disaster years for R’s. In the case of 2008, McCain quit publicly. MI-1, MI-3, MI-4, MI-7, and MI-11 all went D those years too. Stabenow and Levin won those districts, but that was against sacrificial lambs or beneficiaries of weak years or weak candidates.

        I’d never consider MI6 safe (outside of for Upton) or MI8 safe because there are strong D base areas in those districts. In MI-6, it’s Kalamazoo, Benton Harbor, Benton Twp, Niles (except for Trump), and some of the towns in Van Buren, Cass, and Southern Allegen Counties with high minority populations. There’s also a lot of swing voters in MI6 as well. Portage area especially.

        MI-8 doesn’t have nearly the number of swing voters as MI-6, but has stronger R and D base areas. NW Ingham County (Lansing, East Lansing, and Meridian Twp is extremely D.) against Livingston and Northern Oakland County. Oakland County leans D these days overall, but that’s only true for part of Oakland County. Southeastern Oakland is D. Western and Northern Oakland isn’t much different than Livingston County politically.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • freego October 6, 2017 at 5:09 pm

    Looks like we’re seeing the poll that every liberal/nevertrumper is going to be taking about this weekend. The latest AP poll has Trump at 32%-67% disapproval I believe. Now I’m not refuting the results of the poll, but I want to mention that AP has consistently had Trump’s approval sub 35% and his disapproval over 60% since April according to 538 and Huffpost Pollster.

    No other pollster that I know of has Trump above 60% disapproval at this point. I know he reached above 60% disapproval after Charlottesville, but he’s clearly recovered from that according to polling averages. Today Gallup had him at 39%-57%, Rass has him at 46%-53% and Politico/Morning Colsult has him at 45%-52%.

    I’m not dismissing the AP poll, but it’s clearly an outlier. Trump seems to have come down from his late September bounce, but he’s clearly above his polling low post-Charlottesville. Bottom line, the media/twitter is going to paint the picture that Trump’a approval is continuing on constant slide downward, but that’s just not true according to polling averages. Trump’s not popular, but his situation isn’t as dire as some want it to be.


    24, M, Rockefeller Republican, VA-08

    • californianintexas October 6, 2017 at 5:37 pm

      I don’t like Trump, but I have a hard time taking a poll with 2:1 disapproval at this point seriously. It is not like the cluster-you-know-whats from Bush and congressional Republicans in 2005/6. Opposition is easier to take seriously with facts, not screaming, distortions, or accusations of racism or sexism.


      34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • segmentation_fault October 6, 2017 at 5:43 pm

      Note that the poll was taken on 9/29-10/2, right after the NFL controversy and during his Twitter tirade against Puerto Rico, so I think it is believable. He has probably recovered to mid-upper 30s since then, though.


      En Marche!

    • HS October 6, 2017 at 6:57 pm

      I am sure it is an adults poll, or one with a huge Dem edge in registration. Neither should be paid any attention to. I suspect they do this deliberately to try to push the Dem cause.

      In the real world, Trump is between 40 to 46 % pretty much all the time.

      • Mike1965 October 6, 2017 at 7:07 pm

        So who gets to decide which polls are from the real world?

        FWIW of the 12 polls currently in the RCP average, Trump is below 40% in 8 of them.


        #ThanksObama

        • HS October 7, 2017 at 9:40 am

          Just don’t accept a poll of adults. For the millionth time, if the person can’t be bothered to register, than I don’t care what his opinion is. He doesn’t exist, politically speaking.

          • TennesseeMike October 7, 2017 at 12:16 pm

            I 100% agree. Political polls of adults are propaganda and they should be immediately thrown into the trash.


            TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

          • prsteve11 October 7, 2017 at 4:27 pm

            Agreed. President Trump is consistently in the 40s with registered and/or likely voters and that’s the number that really matters. And even Gallup for days now has had the president at 39% with all adults (which probably means at least 42% or 43% among registered voters). And we had a poll out of Michigan that showed 43% approved of his job performance.


            SC-03, Conservative Republican

      • Boehnerwasright October 6, 2017 at 10:53 pm

        Even if a pollster did everything right you would expect a wild outlier once in a while. There is a reason the MoE is only for 95%. If you add pollster R or D bias, all adult polls vs RV vs LV, it is a surprise we don’t see more polls that are way off.

        I wouldn’t be surprised if there are even more polls with weird results in both directions out there that either don’T get published or are corrected to look normal. For why that is a bad idea 538 has written some good articles. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/)
        Dismissing/correcting outliers lead overall to worse results, so I’m glad every time a well done poll with a weird result gets published.

    • district1 October 6, 2017 at 9:14 pm

      Outlier for now, there’s not much more to say about it than that.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

    • andrew_1918 October 7, 2017 at 1:46 am

      “Party ID: D+9″
      Well, okay…

      ” 67 percent of Republicans approve of his performance”
      Wait, what? No way

    • prsteve11 October 7, 2017 at 2:08 am

      Sorry but this poll is just crap, plain and simple. No other polling outfit has found numbers like this and it’s just not believable.


      SC-03, Conservative Republican

  • cer October 6, 2017 at 5:55 pm

    If things are so rose for House Democrats, why is a top Dem asking for a change in leadership!?

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2017/10/06/geezers-out-top-house-democrat-says-its-time-for-pelosi-and-others-to-pack-it-u-n2391212


    Conservative first, Republican second!

    • Midnight901 October 6, 2017 at 6:02 pm

      Sanchez has always been a bit of a cuckoo bird, that said several Hispanic Democrats have been upset with their party leadership for being too weak on immigrant protections from their perspective.

    • andyroo312 October 6, 2017 at 7:09 pm

      I mean, a hefty chunk of Republicans loathe their leadership too, so…


      MA-7

    • Boehnerwasright October 6, 2017 at 10:42 pm

      The problem with your point is that the GOP has one of their largest/most secure house majorities in a very long time, while chasing out Boehner not long ago. And it is not like Ryan is beloved by all members and the grassroots…

  • OGGoldy October 6, 2017 at 7:38 pm

    Hopkins MN Mayor,
    Well, this is how you cripple your mayoral race in one sound bite. Hopkins is over 2:1 D

    https://blogs.mprnews.org/newscut/2017/10/racism-and-southwest-light-rail-in-hopkins/

    • TheWizardOf144 October 6, 2017 at 8:41 pm

      Except that he is factually correct.

  • Manhatlibertarian October 6, 2017 at 8:39 pm

    Well the heartless Trump Administration wouldn’t let Puerto Ricans use Food Stamps to buy hot meals after Hurricane Maria unlike hurricane victims in Texas and Florida the NY Times informed us on Tuesday October 3rd. The only thing is the Dept of Ag had approved use of Food Stamps for hot meals in PR on Saturday September 30. It wasn’t until 24 hours later (or 4 days after Ag had approved use of Food Stamps for hot meals) that the Times corrected the story; guess you can’t believe everything you read in the NY Times.

    I also remember hearing a news blurb on CNN that Trump told Puerto Rican officials during his visit words to the effect that
    “I hate to tell you this but your disaster in busting the federal budget”. Sounds insensitive but the news blurb left out the rest of his statement that he was fine with it because it saved lives, which changes the context of the statement.

    I don’t particularly like Trump, but it seems that the MSM decided on a theme that the Trump Administration wasn’t doing that much to help Puerto Rico because it isn’t a state and is heavily Hispanic. They loved to focus on the mayor of San Juan (a Bernie Sanders supporter) who made melodramatic statements that we are dying and you are not doing enough to help us. The fact that the PR Gov, the Congressional Delegate, and the mayor of the city of Guaynabo (in the same metro area as San Juan) didn’t make such statements was largely ignored. In fact the mayor of Guaynabo pointed out that the mayor of San Juan hadn’t bothered to show up for joint coordination meetings on the disaster with FEMA and US military personnel.

    Sure there are ways the relief efforts could be improved, but there are between 10-15,000 FEMA/military personnel on the ground in PR, so I don’t think it is justified to imply the Feds only have given lip service to efforts to help Puerto Rico. But once the MSM defines the overarching narrative for an event then the news story lines are crafted to fit that narrative. This is just not for Trump but for Repubs in general.

    https://freebeacon.com/politics/nyt-falsely-reports-trump-administration-blocked-puerto-ricans-food-stamps-hot-meals/amp/

  • Left Coast Libertarian October 6, 2017 at 9:29 pm

    Maybe I missed it but there’s been no mention here about Harvey Weinstein’s sexual harassment. Apparently, anyone who had any interaction with Weinstein has known about this as it’s been an open secret for more than 20 years.

    Weinstein is a Democratic mega donor, hosted fundraisers, and bundled. He’s one of the most high profile and most active Democratic fundraisers. He made numerous visits to the Obama White House and is a long time friend of the Clintons. No one cared because he led the good fight. Most of the left has been silent. A few congressmen and senators have said they are giving back Weinstein donations or donating the money to charity. The DNC has received $800k from Weinstein over the years. They’ve announced they’ll be giving $30k to EMILY’s List and other Democratic advocacy groups. These aren’t charities. They’re independent organizations that have the same function as the DNC.

    Weinstein has semi-apologized and announced that he’ll use his time fighting Trump and the NRA. For years Weinstein’s sexual behavior has been accepted because he fights the good fight and he figures if he keeps doing that he’ll be fine. People on our side of the aisle want nothing to do with Roger Ailes or Bill O’Reilly and no one would support Tim Murphy if he vowed to fight the good fight.

    • roguemapper October 6, 2017 at 9:33 pm

      Well, for what it’s worth, I had no clue that Weinstein sexually harassed anyone until I read your comment, but if his behavior is somehow supposed to reflect on Democrats more broadly, then I’m ok with the media burying it. 🙂


      Dem NC-11

    • Red Oaks October 6, 2017 at 9:49 pm

      I read multiple articles about Weinstein’s history of sexual harassment and they didn’t mention his role as a Democratic donor. Until your post I only knew of him vaguely as a movie mogul.


      MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

      • Left Coast Libertarian October 6, 2017 at 10:04 pm

        You follow politics and you’re unfamiliar with Weinstein? He’s not one of those mega donors or bundlers who is largely anonymous. He’s a publicity hound. I assumed everyone knows his involvement with Democrats.

        • Red Oaks October 6, 2017 at 10:46 pm

          The articles I read didn’t mention his role as a donor. There are lots of donors in the country and I don’t spend that much effort following them regularly as opposed to actual candidates or government officials. He isn’t active in my area. Do people outside of West Michigan know who Peter Secchia is?


          MI-03: Tired of Presidency; Focused more on downballot races; Chris Afendoulis for State Senate

        • Manhatlibertarian October 6, 2017 at 11:27 pm

          Well I can’t say I had really heard much about Weinstein either to tell you the truth, but your point about hypocrisy is well taken because from what I have read now, Weinstein was a Dem mega donor. He was friendly with the Clintons and of course Hillary is a big women’s rights champion so did she know about his behavior which I have read was pretty much an open secret? If she did, it is another example of her hypocrisy to be associated with a guy like him.

          What I wonder is why this goes on for decades and only now a story breaks about him in the NY Times? There was a story about him very recently using some money that was raised for AmFAR, the anti-Aids charity, at an auction, for a theatrical production of his, which was of course improper. Did this create a realization among liberal media elites they couldn’t look the other way at Weinstein’s behavior anymore, that he had crossed a red line? I mean did no one at the NY Times know about his behavior until now?

          • Manhatlibertarian October 6, 2017 at 11:41 pm

            Another thought I had is that he has become somewhat of a pariah among top Dems now and of course he will not find many takers now in joining him in an anti-NRA campaign that he sponsors. I wonder when the realization finally sinks in that top Dems are giving him a permanent cold shoulder if he doesn’t decide to strike back by revealing damaging info about some of them. He has been associated with top Dems for three decades, so he may well know where some of the skeletons are buried. Stay tuned.

          • Left Coast Libertarian October 7, 2017 at 12:05 am

            I just read another article in the Times from a different writer about how Kim Masters at the Hollywood Reporter had been chasing the story for years but couldn’t write it unless someone went on the record. She had someone and that person backed out at the last minute. I sympathize with the media. You really can’t write an article because five people who know Harvey Weinstein mention things he’s done in passing. The people likely won’t go on the record for attribution and their knowledge is all second hand innuendo. If you write a story without two sources going on the record, even anonymously, your publisher will kill it because they’ll get sued.

            Reporters likely heard about Bill Cosby for years but there was no way to get confirmation since he bought all the women off. Comedian Hannibal Buress broke the Cosby story because he didn’t have editors asking him for confirmation and didn’t care if Cosby sued him.

        • jncca October 6, 2017 at 11:27 pm

          I’ve literally never heard of the guy. I’m sure he’s a big deal in LA but nationally I doubt it.


          24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

          • Left Coast Libertarian October 6, 2017 at 11:51 pm

            Considering that he lives in New York and is very visible in the New York political scene, I doubt his fame is limited to LA. Maybe I’m the only one who pays attention when the news mentions whose homes Clinton and Obama go to for fundraisers. I read his name associated with Democrats as much as I read the Adelsons associated with Republicans. I’m sure there are other mega donors who give a ton of money to Democrats but Weinstein’s fame makes him more memorable to me than Penny Pritzker or Laura Ricketts.

            He’s not just a donor. He’s talked about his politics when he’s won Academy Awards. He visited the Obama White House 10 times. He’s photographed with the Clintons. He has used his fame to put himself out there as a face for the Democratic party.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 6, 2017 at 11:54 pm

            If anything, it’d be the opposite. He’s not particularly active in local LA stuff. His stuff seems mostly like national-level grandstanding. Multiple people I know were confused because they were confusing him with Michael Weinstein (another rather unsavory megadonor active in local politics).


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • Left Coast Libertarian October 7, 2017 at 12:06 am

              One reason he’s not active in LA stuff is that he doesn’t live here and probably spends little time in LA. He’s always run his business from New York.

              • californianintexas October 7, 2017 at 2:08 am

                In the hours I spent studying California elections and politics, I never saw Weinstein’s name once.


                34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

          • Midnight901 October 7, 2017 at 1:14 am

            Malia Obama interned for him, so he’s used to rubbing shoulders with national Democratic elites.

    • Republican Michigander October 7, 2017 at 12:13 am

      “”Weinstein has semi-apologized and announced that he’ll use his time fighting Trump and the NRA. For years Weinstein’s sexual behavior has been accepted because he fights the good fight and he figures if he keeps doing that he’ll be fine.””

      Now I know why Weinstein is a gun grabber. He doesn’t want armed women or armed friends and family of the women he harasses.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • CTIronman October 7, 2017 at 6:21 am

      Weinstein wasn’t some rich dude who wrote checks for a photo op. He was a serious bankroller & propagandist for the Left. He had enough juice to hold a high dollar Obama FR at his spread in Westport & have the Secret Service close down a CT state beach in August. Damn straight this peon wants to see him go down hard. Just for that arrogant bs.

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