Political Roundup for October 9th, 2017

Happy Columbus Day! If you’re a government employee, congratulations, you have the day off! If you’re just a normal person, then here’s some electoral news to take your mind off of what Jenny in HR is probably telling everyone that came up on your last evaluation.

Big Picture

FL: Florida is a state of counterbalancing political trends. On the one hand, you have Puerto Ricans pouring into Orlando. On the other hand, you have northern retirees pouring planned communities across the state. This article examines the latter by looking at the biggest such community, The Villages (Florida’s Friendliest Home Town! to anyone who’s watched a few hours of Fox News in the last decade). One thing that the article fails to note is the same company that built The Villages is planning an even bigger community near Panama City Beach.

Gerrymandering: This is one of those great longform pieces from Politico Magazine. In it, Jeff Greenfield discusses how many Democrats’ obsession with gerrymandering blinds them to the real state-level work that they must do if they wish to regain power.

Talkin’ Bout My Generation: Is the Republican Party in a downward spiral with young voters? No, it definitely isn’t, at least according to this WaPo article. What seems to have happened is that as younger voters have gotten less white, white young voters have gotten more Republican. There’s also some evidence that young blacks have gotten a bit more Republican, but the article doesn’t discuss that.

Congress

MI-Sen: Another week, another Kid Rock Senate poll. This one from Mitchell (not the most reputable pollster) Mr. Ritchie trailing Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) by eight points, 46-38.

MO-Sen: Former Trump Steve Bannon has been trying to meddle in some Senate primaries recently. Missouri AG Josh Hawley (R), who’s running against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) next year, heard that he might be on the target list and called the snake himself to charm his way out of it. It remains to be seen whether the snake will go quietly into the basket.

WY-Sen: Speaking of Steve Bannon sticking his nose where it’s in danger of being chopped off, he’s playing in Wyoming as well. He’s reportedly recruiting Blackwater founder Erik Prince to primary Sen. John Barrasso (R). I highly doubt it will work (see Liz Cheney primarying Mike Enzi a few years ago), but we’ll keep an eye on it nonetheless.

MI-08: When you’re in the wilderness, a bunch of formerly appointed officials suddenly look like good candidates. Enter Ellissa Slotkin (D), an Obama-era DoD official who is now running for Congress in her native Michigan. Slotkin is running against Rep. Mike Bishop (R) in his Lansing-to-Troy seat, and she’s raising quite a lot of money for a seat like this and early in the cycle. She’s got about $370k CoH right now. That’s phenomenal, but remember, Bishop is popular and the seat is stably R+4. If there’s a wave, I could see it falling, but it’s not likely at this point. The materials are there, though.

PA-18: With Rep. Tim Murphy (R) adding ‘disgraced former’ to the front of his name last week, there’s liable to be a special election for his Pittsburgh-area seat. Our friend Miles Coleman over at DDHQ breaks down the district by the numbers and finds that it’s likely to stay in Republican hands because of trends in the area over the past two decades.

Governor

CA-Gov: Fun fact: in Berkeley, CA, the side of town housing the big university is the one LESS in favor of seizing the means of production. Why is this, might you ask? It’s because even though California is a very blue state, and even its college students are yet bluer, they’re still less leftist than America’s biggest CrazyTown, where Jill Stein came in second place last year. Anyway, the college itself has produced a useful poll of the upcoming gubernatorial blanket primary. The poll came out as 23-12-10-9-7-4 Newsom (D)-Villaraigosa (D)-Cox (R)-Allen (R)-Chiang (D)-Eastin (D). I have to think that this race is Lt. Gove Gavin Newsom’s to lose, and he’ll certainly come in first in Top Two.

State/Local

CO-Treas: Well, we know who the Republican nominee for Treasurer in Colorado is already. Incumbent Walker Stapleton (R) has decided to run for Governor, and State Rep. Polly Lawrence (R) has stepped right in and raised $90,000 already. That’s almost as much as Stapleton usually raises this time of the cycle. It more than quadruples her closest primary rival. This bodes well for the GOP holding onto the office, as there likely won’t be a bloody primary and Lawrence sounds like solid candidate who stays on-issue.

Erie-Mayor: Salena Zito thinks that the GOP might pick up the Mayor’s office in Erie, PA. I’m not convinced, but she makes a strong case. Pieces like this that focus on local races are often good reads, and this one is no exception.

Hopkins-Mayor: File this one under ‘dumbass.’ A candidate for Mayor in Hopkins, MN, an inner suburb of Minneapolis, is in hot water after after claiming that a new light rail project will bring in ‘riffraff,’ ‘ethnics,’ and shootings. however right he is about transit links sometimes bringing crime to the suburbs, this was exactly the wrong way to approach the subject. His campaign must surely be doomed after this.

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116 Comments

  • bluewahoo October 9, 2017 at 9:24 am

    VA-Gov: CNU has it at 49-42, Northam over Gillespie.

    http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Oct-9-Report-Final.pdf

    • bluewahoo October 9, 2017 at 10:03 am

      On the same topic, United Mine Workers endorse Northam. Not too surprising, as they endorsed McAuliffe in 2013. Still significant IMO due to withholding endorsements for President in 2012 and 2016;

      http://augustafreepress.com/united-mine-workers-america-endorses-ralph-northam-governor/

      • bluewahoo October 9, 2017 at 11:58 am

        I saw that this morning, and IMO its pretty classic unskewing. First off, the sample for Party ID breaks down 32/36/29 R/D/I, so I’m not sure where that D+11 number is coming from.

        As for level of education, why are we to assume that the electorate will be the same as the state pop when it comes to this metric, especially considering its an off year? Of course the bachelors and post grad degrees will be over represented.

        The racial and regional numbers all check out also.

        • Manhatlibertarian October 9, 2017 at 1:11 pm

          Well I think Northam does have the lead in Va, and one would expect college and graduate school level voter turnout to be higher than the general population, but in this poll I think it is too exaggerated. You have 65% of poll respondent voters with a college education compared to 36% for the general population. You have 30% of poll respondent voters with graduate level work compared to only 15% in the general population. Particularly with the graduate students percentage this moves the voting electorate to the left. But I think it does show that Gillespie needs to increase turnout among non college educated whites to win, particularly outside of urban areas.

      • rdelbov October 9, 2017 at 12:04 pm

        Not sure where the +11 comes from unless the AG number?

        Either way we have seen time and again VA polls are screwy. Of course so the polls for most states in the lower 48 and especially with Hawaii/Alaska polls the grain of salt is required.

        I for one see the VA Gov race right now to be closer then the outcome for Hillary-Trump 2016.

        • The Zenome Project October 9, 2017 at 12:09 pm

          100% agree. I predict Tilt Northam, but with very, very close margins. I think that what the Dems should fear the most is that a lot of the voters that used to vote Democrat for years may not show up as frequently as they used to because of identity politics.

        • Boehnerwasright October 9, 2017 at 12:29 pm

          I still don’t see why people think this race is so close. Yes Gillespie has a chance to win but Northram should be the favorite. In almost every metric which is predictive of a win northram leads. He has lead or tied every single poll, there was not even a leaked internal where Gillespie was leading, McAuliff is popular and Trump is unpopular.
          Northram raised more money and is running in a light blue state.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 9, 2017 at 12:30 pm

            Even Ron Johnson led in one poll. Gillespie has never led a single poll.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • rdelbov October 9, 2017 at 1:45 pm

              Not yet? Unless you count polls from March and April 2017. If you then technically he has led in a poll.

          • bluewahoo October 9, 2017 at 12:40 pm

            While I agree that Northam is favored, I think most the skepticism is based, somewhat reasonably, in Gillispie’s over performance in 2014 against a candidate who was seen as much stronger than Northam by pretty much everyone.

          • The Zenome Project October 9, 2017 at 12:43 pm

            Two reasons (just my opinion):

            1. Virginia pollsters have a long history of underestimating R support: this is the case even when Jim Webb narrowly beat George Allen during the Bush presidency.
            2. There were many gubernatorial polls from last year, including IN, NH, and MO, that had the Democrat leading throughout the entire campaign in the polls but lost it in the general election. This leads folks like me to become rather sarcastic about the polls in Virginia.
            3. McAuliffe had similarly good margins in the polls against Cuccinelli, and he also barely squeaked by with a plurality victory with the Libertarian Sarvis taking 5%. Gillespie is milquetoast enough to wrangle in the NoVa moderates in ways that Cuccinelli could not, meaning that I think he has a better shot than the average R.

            • fzw October 9, 2017 at 12:54 pm

              Over-performances oftentimes occur because polls can over-correct to account for the previous cycle. 2012 polls underestimated Democrats across the board because polls thought it was going to be more like 2004 than 2008, and 2010 might have prompted that over-correction. Same thing in 2016 in that they probably over-corrected from 2012’s polls. 2014 polls were probably off somewhat because they over-corrected from 2012.

              I think that it’s just as likely Northam over-performs as Gillespie over-performs the polls. Dem enthusiasm is clearly much higher than past years, so I don’t see why 2013 and 2014 are really that relevant to this year. Kaine over-performed the averages in 2005 and 2012.


              Currently MO-5. From MO-3.

            • w920us October 9, 2017 at 1:04 pm

              Speaking of the tendency of pollsters understating GOP support in VA, (which is like the opposite of Nevada), I wonder if part of explanation is due to the type of Democrats in Virginia’s most significant Democratic base in the state. Northern Virginia isn’t just packed with Democrats, but the type of Democrats who feel compelled to tell EVERYONE (and with no hesitation) their political views. That is to say they get over represented in polls slightly because they are so open with their views.


              R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
              #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

              • The Zenome Project October 9, 2017 at 1:25 pm

                I have lots of family in NoVa, and indeed that characterization is 100% true. The particular strain of leftism in DC is drug-resistant superbug-esque, so toxic that any mention of vaguely conservative thought in a room can turn otherwise warm and kind individuals into attacking, rabid beasts.

                • HS October 9, 2017 at 1:41 pm

                  They do it on purpose too, I am sure. In this race, i suspect Gillespie is narrowly down, so i assume partisan Dem pollsters will try to expand Northams edge, in the hopes of depressing weak Republican voters. I believe they did this in 2013 too. They also know that a few Dem sources have recently complained about the Northam campaign, so they want to nip that in the bud.

              • rdw72777 October 9, 2017 at 3:07 pm

                Well whomever answers the phone is going to be over-stated, so Dems in NovVa answering or Hispanics in LV not answering lead to this situation. It’s really nothing more than response bias. It’s kind of like how every poll will overstate whites over 65 in raw data which makes weighting/re-weighting so important (and why it has become so difficult).

                • w920us October 9, 2017 at 3:19 pm

                  I’m slightly annoyed I’ve only been polled once. But I guess not answering the phone for unknown numbers doesn’t help that.

                  My one and only time was a push poll from the Delaware Democrats against Sen. Roth in 1994 if I recall.


                  R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
                  #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

                  • rdw72777 October 9, 2017 at 3:22 pm

                    I don’t own a landline and unknown cell calls are always telemarketers (or the blood thirsty vampires at the Red Cross). It’d take a heroically odd occurrence for me to be polled too.

    • davybaby October 9, 2017 at 11:48 am

      BTW, the president of Christopher Newport University, Paul Trible, was once a U. S. Senator (R-VA, 1982-88).

      • shamlet October 9, 2017 at 11:53 am

        I for one am disappointed that you could mention him without the obligatory “trouble with Trible” pun.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Son_of_the_South October 9, 2017 at 12:01 pm

          I’m sure he had some “Trials and Trible-ations!”


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • Jon October 9, 2017 at 1:15 pm

            Well that episode of Deep Space Nine first aired somewhat more than a decade after he was no longer a US Senator. He’d have only had TOS pun to deal.


            45, M, MO-02

      • rdelbov October 9, 2017 at 12:13 pm

        Trible won what seemed like a walkover race in 1982. He faced the D LG but no, at the time, seemed to see Trible would lose the race. The final outcome was tighter then expected. He retired in 1988 rather then face what lose to Charles Robb? The ex-senator botched a governor run in 1989 and then faded off to obscurity. A solid senator but without a long career.

  • The Zenome Project October 9, 2017 at 9:39 am

    I think a lot of the rumors about Bannon looking for a primary opponent to likely MO Senate nominee Hawley were fake news; there were a bunch of articles on Breitbart last month that stated that Hawley was his preferred candidate. Makes sense to me, since Hawley has a track record of both being very conservative and having both establishment and anti-establishment support.

    • HS October 9, 2017 at 10:48 am

      What is most disturbing about the Bannon rumors and stories is just how poorly his political acumen seems to be. Why latch onto Danny Tarkanian, who is a joke now? Why not find a better candidate than McDaniel in MS? Why float a MI millionaire like Prince for WY? And I say this as someone who is not totally unsympathetic to Bannons ideology and issue positions (I agree with him more often than not).

      These days, I really wonder what Trump saw in Bannon in the first place. He is not politically smart. He permanently looks like he has a terrible hangover, and Trump hates alcohol, and likes business professional attire. Bannon is not a brownoser, but instead has a habit of picking unnecessary fights with people; and Trumps reputation is he likes brownosers. Bannon doesn’t even have a good voice or presence.

      • The Zenome Project October 9, 2017 at 10:59 am

        Bannon is not a stupid guy, but he is more of a behind-the-scenes cultural warrior than he is a charismatic political figure. Breitbart itself is more about culture than politics, and it is still heavily influenced by Andrew Breitbart’s philosophy that “politics is downstream from culture”. I don’t think that he expects every single primary to be successful, but he wants enough of them to be successful so that the GOPe is terrified enough to actually start passing good legislation. I think that’s a noble goal, and it does require that you cast a wide net.

      • Republican Michigander October 9, 2017 at 11:09 am

        One thing I noticed after reading this common. One of Breitbart’s problems is that they lack local political knowledge. I’m no Paul Ryan fan, but he works his district and the hyped election against him was going nowhere. We all saw that coming. Breitbart did not. Nothing against Erik Prince, but if he actually ran for office, it should be MI-2 (Originally I thought he was rumored to run there and that Wyoming referred to Wyoming, Michigan. McDaniel did nearly win, and probably would have if his campaign didn’t have some DMF’s involved. Tarkanian lost several times.

        If I’m out to recruit people to win, I’m recruiting candidates that can do it. That starts with candidates with good local ties to the district.


        MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • The Zenome Project October 9, 2017 at 11:18 am

          It’s important to note that political primaries are, with some historical exceptions, low-probability crapshoots. It sometimes takes a political outsider to get the ball rolling if an incumbent is super-entrenched like Ryan is, since it is incredibly risky politically for somebody more tied to politics in the district to run such a primary challenge. Dave Brat was like a Paul Nehlen in that sense (both were political outsiders but were from the local district), and Breitbart was heavily credited for taking down Cantor by endorsing and promoting Brat.

        • shamlet October 9, 2017 at 11:26 am

          If Erik Prince wanted to primary an incumbent he should go with NC-3, which is where his business was set up.


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

          • The Zenome Project October 9, 2017 at 11:31 am

            Considering that both Walter Jones and Erik Prince are fans of Ron Paul, I think he’d rather not.

            • cer October 9, 2017 at 2:22 pm

              Unfortunately Walter Jones is my Congressman. I keep hoping that a strong conservative alternative will primary him.


              Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Izengabe October 9, 2017 at 2:43 pm

        Sometimes you have to go with what’s available. Bannon wants to be a disrupter and unfortunately for him Danny Tarkanian and Chris McDaniel are what’s available to him to disrupt with.

        Although if I was Bannon and wanted to create a GOP primary in MS I would try and convince Angela McGlowan to run.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • district1 October 9, 2017 at 5:26 pm

          “Disrupt” is the key word. He cares far more about injecting himself into the process than winning.


          ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

  • RogueBeaver October 9, 2017 at 10:05 am

    CA-SEN: DiFi officially in. https://twitter.com/DianneFeinstein/status/917389235145117696


    QC/Blue Tory/M

    • RogueBeaver October 9, 2017 at 10:10 am

      Never mind – please delete.


      QC/Blue Tory/M

      • shamlet October 9, 2017 at 10:38 am

        People seem to be saying it’s legit. Though tweeting from a 4-years-dormant account with under 2K followers has to be one of the weirdest ways to announce a re-election I’ve ever seen.


        R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

    • The Zenome Project October 9, 2017 at 10:12 am

      That’s too bad; I wanted to see California go full moonbat and nominate my favorite pinko Sean Penn for Senate, but that’ll have to wait for a few more years.

      • Lucas Black October 9, 2017 at 10:55 am

        Would even the Dems elect a wife-beater?

        • RogueBeaver October 9, 2017 at 12:06 pm

          NYT’s Martin says De Leon will challenge DiFi. https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/917400638262214657


          QC/Blue Tory/M

          • Izengabe October 9, 2017 at 2:50 pm

            This could be a nightmare turnout scenario for down ballot GOP if the top two runoffs for both Governor and Senate are all Democrats.


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • shamlet October 9, 2017 at 2:55 pm

              Yeah. Someone really needs to figure out how to get Rohrabacher the Ambassador to Kazakhstan post or something. Then Travis Allen can go for that seat and Cox can be the standard-bearer.


              R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

              • Izengabe October 9, 2017 at 3:00 pm

                But any chance at winning CA-gov rest on Cox and Allen splitting the 40% of the GOP vote evenly while keeping Newsome numbers down enough for him to run 3rd!


                Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                • shamlet October 9, 2017 at 3:15 pm

                  I don’t think I’d take the bet of that happening vs. two Dems advancing.


                  R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

                  • Left Coast Libertarian October 9, 2017 at 11:09 pm

                    Do you really think Cox qualifies as a standard bearer? Nobody knows who he is now and nobody will then. In 2014 Ashley Swearengin was supposed to be the next big thing, but when the votes were tallied she only got 150k more votes than David Evans. He was just some dude. I don’t think Cox can take a high percentage of the Republican vote even if Allen drops out. Cox would have to spend a lot more than the $3 million he put in his coffers.

                    • shamlet October 9, 2017 at 11:14 pm

                      Kashkari got 20% with basically nobody knowing who he was other than “not Tim Donnelly”. I imagine Cox can get over half the GOP vote with no real effort if he didn’t have a real opponent.


                      R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

                    • Left Coast Libertarian October 9, 2017 at 11:23 pm

                      Tim Donnelly got 15% in the same election because few people knew who Tim Donnelly and “not Tim Donnelly” were. The GOP got 40% in that election. Will we get 40% again? Maybe, but we might get 33-35%. If Cox gets 16%, he might not make top two. Cox might just be enough to make top two if Allen drops out but that’s no guarantee.

                      The CA GOP needs gubernatorial and senate candidates who people actually know when they go to the polls. Unfortunately, Condi and Faulconer won’t run. I don’t know who else we have.

                    • Izengabe October 10, 2017 at 12:15 pm

                      You guys are thinking about this all wrong. This is the New GOP. If the GOP wants to make the top two they need a celebrity. California is full of them. Caitlyn Jenner for Senate. Dennis Miller or Kelsey Grammer for Governor! Maybe Steven Seagal is available? The Russians could even finance his run so that would be a guaranteed win!


                      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

                    • HS October 11, 2017 at 12:11 am

                      I know you are joking, IZ but you are 90% right. The GOP certainly needs a new celebrity. The only wrong thing about this is it isn’t new, especially in CA. There was George Murphy. There was Ronald Reagan. There was Arnold Schwarzenegger. There was Sonny Bono. On the D side there was Helen G. Douglass, a former actress, and John Tunney, whose father was a celebrity.

            • The Zenome Project October 9, 2017 at 3:15 pm

              Easy problem to fix with the Senate seat: organize all of the candidates by funds raised, pick the top guy, tell the others to scram. Also, there’s already 6 other minor Dem candidates besides Feinstein, which would make it hard for De Leon to primary her.

              • Son_of_the_South October 9, 2017 at 3:29 pm

                Lol. If only it was that simple. Telling politicians (who almost always believe that they’re the person who’s going to come out of nowhere and win) to ‘scram’ really only works in areas with strong machines. Most areas don’t have machines anymore.


                24, R, TN-09
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

                • shamlet October 9, 2017 at 3:49 pm

                  Well, I would qualify that by saying that it generally works for Democrats. Dems tend to be more willing to take one for the team because they’re easier to buy off with lower-level patronage, even in areas without a huge machine culture. But I definitely agree for the GOP that’s only an option in the traditional machine territories: NYS, NJ, and most of PA. Even the Dade machine doesn’t do a great job of clearing primaries.


                  R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

                  • Left Coast Libertarian October 9, 2017 at 11:11 pm

                    It works better for Democrats in California because they give a party endorsement to their candidate of choice. Republicans don’t. Even if they did, it might not mean much. The right wing voters won’t be swayed by what the CRP says. Of course the Republican party is full of individualists. So doing what’s right for the team doesn’t come natural.

    • segmentation_fault October 9, 2017 at 12:28 pm

      I think she should retire but nonetheless I would vote for her if I lived in CA.

      She will have trouble from the left but Top Two will likely save her. I think her GE opponent will be a Dem and she will win due to a small number of crossover votes from GOP, compared to her opponent who will get no crossparty support (except from VastBlightKingConspiracy)


      En Marche!

    • Izengabe October 9, 2017 at 2:47 pm

      This means no Sen. Caitlyn Jenner! 🙁

      Jenner’s only shot at winning would have been Feinstein retiring and a clown car Dem primary creating a Jenner vs random conservative GOP Assemblyman top two runoff.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • TennesseeMike October 9, 2017 at 3:46 pm

        I can live without that.


        TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

        • Izengabe October 9, 2017 at 4:00 pm

          Can you? Can you really? Caitlyn Jenner is the Senator America deserves.


          Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

          • TennesseeMike October 9, 2017 at 4:05 pm

            Maybe the Senator California deserves.
            And yes, I can easily live without Caitlyn Jenner as a senator.


            TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

            • Izengabe October 9, 2017 at 4:23 pm

              But the ratings will be insane! And in your heart you know you will watch the show and love it!


              Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • ike56 October 9, 2017 at 4:27 pm

              Hey now, leave my state alone! I don’t tell Tennesseeans whom they ought to elect as their Senator!😉

              I’ll keep DiFi, but I’d happily take Jenner over DeLeon if push came to shove…


              38, USN CPO (CA-52, stuck with Scott Peters until a good candidate comes along).

  • Republican Michigander October 9, 2017 at 10:29 am

    MI-08 – Soon after Trump won, the D’s were heavily pushing women bureaucrats, probably partially due to swamp connections, raising money, and feminist groups. MI-8 and MI-11’s candidates were recruited around the same time. It’s aimed at centrist professionals (who ironically don’t like the swamp much either). Whether it works or not remains to be seen. I think the D’s really underestimate the dislike conservative women have for the left, the Clintons, Harvey Weinsteins, and the media for their treatment of Palin.

    2006 and 2008 were the MI-8 disasters, and Mike Rogers was strong enough to hang on without a ton of trouble. It was 52% Obama after McCain quit. Romney narrowly won it. Trump won by a bigger margin although there were some 3rd party defections. Granholm won the district 51-48 in 2006 (about 7000 votes). She got 66% in Ingham County and cleaned up among State Workers. She got 41.5% in both Livingston and Northern Oakland, which is slightly better than normal among D’s in those areas.

    The only path for the D’s to win MI-8 is by running up the score well above and beyond normal numbers in Ingham County (especially Lansing, East Lansing, and Meridian Twp – and they must win light blue Delhi Twp big to have a chance too). Off years do favor D’s in Ingham County as much as a presidential year due to the state workers. They probably need about 63% there to have a chance depending on elsewhere, and 65% realistic chance. How much the D’s need to run up the score depends on what happens in Livingston and Northern Oakland. The D’s aren’t going to win either outside of major disaster, but they don’t need to do so. D’s got 59% in 2016 in Ingham, 63% in 2012 (still lost district, barely), and 66% in 2008 and 2006. They also probably need to break 40% in both Livingston and North Oakland. D’s got 41.50% in Livingston in 2006, and 42% in 2008.

    I’m not arrogant enough to say it can’t be done, but it’s not easy to do.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • Republican Michigander October 9, 2017 at 11:43 am

    MI-11 – St Senator (and Joe’s son) Marty Knollenberg is NOT running.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

  • rdw72777 October 9, 2017 at 11:44 am

    There’s too much obsession with The Villages as a political force. The article would have been more interesting if it focused more heavily on Volusia County which only received a passing mention. It’s more fascinating politically because of the real change plus it’s a larger area and isn’t as demographically homogenous. Hopefully they’ll do another look in the future.

    • Republican Michigander October 9, 2017 at 12:06 pm

      The Villages and Orlando get the most focus on real change, but Gore actually won Pasco, Hernando, Flagler, and Volusia.
      None of those were within 10% in 2016.


      MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

      • davybaby October 9, 2017 at 12:28 pm

        That isn’t because the voters there (or their descendants) changed, but rather that once-empty territory filled up.

        • Son_of_the_South October 9, 2017 at 5:55 pm

          Well, yes and no. Sure, the filling-up made those counties trend right from 2000 to 2008. However, the big jumps in 2012 and especially 2016 suggest that either a bunch of the new people switched (which is consistent with some areas like New Port Richey being filled with Midwestern former union types whose relatives switched in their home states) and/or (likely and) a bunch of original residents switched.


          24, R, TN-09
          Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • StatenIslandTest October 9, 2017 at 11:40 pm

            Look at Ocean County NJ both for President and Governor (Florio was close there in 93, Gore was close in 2000, its now dark red). I think theres some similarity to what happened there to the outer Orlando counties.


            32, Jersey City

            • Son_of_the_South October 10, 2017 at 12:05 am

              It’s a possibility.


              24, R, TN-09
              Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

          • californianintexas October 10, 2017 at 12:25 am

            From what I heard from a Volusia County native on DKE, the highly educated space industry workers moved out after NASA ended the space shuttle program and conservative retirees moved in.


            34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

  • HS October 9, 2017 at 11:56 am

    http://www.mcall.com/news/local/allentown/mayor/mc-nws-allentown-mayor-pawlowski-path-to-victory-20170928-story.html

    Interesting race in my old hometown. The Republican (admittedly a Democrat who just switched) could win, and there is a strong write-in Democrat, O’Connell, who is a player too. Unfortunately, the better O’Connell does, the more likely the incumbent Democrat, an indicted crook, wins.

    • w920us October 9, 2017 at 12:20 pm

      Speaking of non-Philly parts of PA, it’ll be interesting if we see Republicans snatching some County Commissioner and council seats next month in some of the larger counties in PA that shifted strongly toward Trump, such as Erie, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northampton and suburban Allegheny.


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • rdw72777 October 9, 2017 at 12:47 pm

        Luzerne County will be the most interesting I think, with 5 seats up and each party having 5 nominees (it’s at-large so top 5 vote-getters win). Who knows how it will play out but in a race like this 500 voters could give either side a 5-0 sweep.

        Someone actually made a Luzerne County council wikipedia page:

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luzerne_County_Council

    • Manhatlibertarian October 9, 2017 at 12:44 pm

      This is a good article because it provides poll information and detailed electoral analysis of Allentown rather than just anecdotal information. Sounds like the Repub has a good chance against an indicted Dem mayor in this normally Dem leaning city.

  • aas34 October 9, 2017 at 12:07 pm

    ME-SEN; Bannon seeking Ann LePage

    http://www.centralmaine.com/2017/10/08/report-bannon-wants-ann-lepage-to-challenge-angus-king/


    32, R, CA-2

    • Izengabe October 9, 2017 at 2:54 pm

      NRSC should be seeking Ann LePage as well. She’d be a great candidate!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • rdelbov October 9, 2017 at 3:49 pm

        Super candidate!!

        • edtorres04 October 9, 2017 at 3:59 pm

          Really? How is she good? i don’t know much about her.

          • Izengabe October 9, 2017 at 4:05 pm

            See here:
            http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/politics/ann-lepage-summer-waitress/index.html


            Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

            • rdelbov October 9, 2017 at 4:14 pm

              LePage without the rough edges or bombast.

              of course Angus King was just a well liked and well known nice guy before he ran for Governor. So articulate and nice are really attractive political qualities to have. Obama showed that most of those years building a resume, like what Hillary did, are a waste of time unless you are a like-able candidate. Ann LePage seems to be very like-able.

            • Greyhound October 9, 2017 at 4:25 pm

              Yeah–she’s got a lot of her husband’s salt-of-the-earth charm without his uh . . . eccentricities. No idea if she’s got the political chops to make it, but its hard to come up with someone in politics who has a more genuine cultural connection to the White working class.


              R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

            • rdw72777 October 9, 2017 at 4:25 pm

              So she has a part-time job? LOL…

    • ike56 October 9, 2017 at 4:22 pm

      I know nothing about her; my concern is that the wives of politicians seeking seats (aside from widows trying to succeed their late husbands) night turn out like Lenore Romney in ‘70 and lose badly (of course, the Romneys had that feud with Gov. Milliken, which did not help party unity in trying to unseat Sen. Hart).


      38, USN CPO (CA-52, stuck with Scott Peters until a good candidate comes along).

      • krazen1211 October 9, 2017 at 4:57 pm

        Surprised you didn’t use Hillary Clinton as your example.

        But unlike the Clintons per the above Ann Lepage is the more talented one.

      • GoBigRedState October 9, 2017 at 9:03 pm

        Yeah, governor’s wives have a poor track record of trying to get elected on their own. Aside from Hillary Clinton(which is a different situation since she was a president’s wife), all the recent ones I can think of have lost. Cathy Keating lost in the R primary for OK-1 in 2001, Janet Huckabee lost big for AR Sec. of State in 2002, and Christie Vilsack lost for IA-4 in 2012. Going somewhat further back, Betty Hearnes failed in an attempt to win her husband’s old job as MO-Gov in 1988. Lurleen Wallace in 1966 may be the only successful attempt(at least for any major office), and in that case she was essentially a stand-in for George Wallace, because at that time Alabama governors couldn’t run for re-election.


        45, NE-1, #NeverTrump in 2016, support Trump now as situation warrants

        • shamlet October 9, 2017 at 9:57 pm

          Betty Hearnes did win a legislative seat though. Of course Olympia Snowe won a Senate seat as a Governor’s wife but she had her own political career separate from her husband’s.

          If you want to go way back, in the Wallace mold, the first two female Governors in the 1920s were first ladies: Nellie Ross was elected to complete her husband’s term in Wyoming and Ma Ferguson was elected TX Governor as a surrogate for her husband who had been barred from office for corruption.

          Dottie Lamm and Lenore Romney were other failed first ladies turned Senate candidate.


          R, MD-7. Put not your trust in princes. Process is more important than outcome.

        • Lucas Black October 10, 2017 at 12:38 am

          You are forgetting the wife of Pierre S ‘Pete’ DuPont IV who tried to win DE-AL as he was retiring as governor. I think her name was Elise? Anyway, I understand she came across as ‘shrill’ in the one debate and lost the race.

  • CO Conservative October 9, 2017 at 12:21 pm

    CO-Treasurer: Polly Lawrence, not Polly Walker.

    • Son_of_the_South October 9, 2017 at 1:47 pm

      Sorry about that. I write these things late at night. It’s been fixed.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

  • rdw72777 October 9, 2017 at 12:51 pm

    Tomorrow is the voter registration deadline in Pennsylvania if you want to vote in the November elections. Pass it along…

    https://www.pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages/VoterRegistrationApplication.aspx

    • Jon October 9, 2017 at 1:17 pm

      30 days out is a common deadline for most states. It’s just that most states don’t have general elections in Nov of odd numbered years, but only special ones to fill vacant seats.


      45, M, MO-02

      • rdw72777 October 9, 2017 at 2:59 pm

        That’s only true of statewide elections (and even then plenty have stuff going on) but there’s enough local elections going on every year that the deadline always matters.

  • Manhatlibertarian October 9, 2017 at 2:40 pm

    Columbus Day NY tidbits:

    Underdog Repub-Conserv NYC mayoral candidate Nicolle Malliotakis raised more $ in late September than Mayor deBlasio, while also qualifying for substantial city matching campaign funds. But deBlasio still has more COH. The first of two mayoral debates is tomorrow night on Cable News Channel 1.

    IDC Dem faction leader Jeff Klein appeared at a rally Sunday to save the Columbus Circle statue of Columbus along with three other Dem legislators. He said the statue represents the aspirations of Italian American immigrants and must stay in Columbus Circle. Meanwhile some Italian American community leaders attending the Bronx Columbus Day parade (to which deBlasio was disinvited) threatened to chain themselves to the statue if there is any attempt to remove it.

    Although the Trump Admin announced it is broadening the religious exemption from the ACA requirement that employers provide contraceptive coverage in health insurance plans, Gov Cuomo announced that NY State would still require insurers to include this type of coverage in health insurance policies.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/

    • Izengabe October 9, 2017 at 2:57 pm

      I find the hubub over the Columbus statue strange when not a word is being said about renaming Columbus Avenue. My general feeling on this is this is more of a creation of people who oppose the removal as an attempt to rile up their Italian American base.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • rdw72777 October 9, 2017 at 3:29 pm

        I agree but of course statues have more significance than road names…or some junk…lol. The whole thing…sigh.

        However for those looking for the future of this ridiculous might I suggest it will occur in Philly. It pre-dates me moving to Philly (so W920US or other pre-1999 residents of Philly chime in) but Philly has a “road” that prior to the 1990’s was named Delaware Avenue. However in the early 1990’s the part south of Spring Garden Street (i.e. the part that heads to South Philadelphia) was renamed Columbus Boulevard. If we cross our fingers tight we might find a way to make the re-naming of Columbus Boulevard back to Delaware Avenue a national fiasco!!! Hans Sprungfeld would be proud.

        http://www.phillymag.com/news/2016/10/13/delaware-avenue-columbus-boulevard-name/

      • Manhatlibertarian October 9, 2017 at 4:16 pm

        Well of course if Columbus is as bad as some claim then both the avenue named after him as well as the 5 statues in NYC should go; and certainly some politicians see it as an opportunity to stick it to deBlasio and get Italian-American votes. Interesting that IDC Dem faction leader Jeff Klein is getting so involved with this issue; this does not endear him to SJW Dems and shows again he has little interest in being a “quiet good boy” who doesn’t offend other left leaning Dems.

        Interesting also that Dem NYC Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito (an SJW type), who is of Puerto Rican descent, is a big advocate of getting rid of the Columbus statues. There are several statues of Columbus in Puerto Rico and Nov 19 is Discovery Day , a legal holiday in Puerto Rico, that commemorates the discovery of the island by Columbus on his second voyage. Although Columbus is associated with Italian-Americans, as an agent of Spain he brought Hispanic culture to the Western Hemisphere.

        • Manhatlibertarian October 9, 2017 at 5:20 pm

          Not to beat a subject to death (but I will anyway) but there was widespread booing of Mayor deBlasio at the Columbus Day Parade in Manhattan today, and some parade viewers had signs that read “Leave Columbus Alone”. Independent candidate Bo Dietl led a section of booers and GOP candidate Malliotakis supporters had signs that said “A vote for Malliotakis is a vote for Columbus”.

          https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/bill-de-blasio-booed-nyc-columbus-day-parade

  • Manhatlibertarian October 9, 2017 at 3:40 pm

    Although the NY Times is now taking bows for having the “courage” to release the Harvey Weinstein story, a former NY Times reporter reveals that her own attempt to write a story about his sexual escapades was suppressed in 2004, after Weinstein put a lot of pressure on the newspaper to kill the story. So the NY Times knew about his sexual misconduct for years but declined to run a negative story about the big liberal Dem advocate and financial contributor; wonder if they would have done the same if he had been a big GOP donor. He also, while being a liberal Dem advocate, years ago stiffed his staff out of $136,000 in overtime pay, that he was forced by legal action to finally pay them. What a phony hypocrite! And of course now a number of prominent people in Hollywood claim they had just no idea about his behavior, which has been called an open secret. I still wonder what finally led to the story being released now; the Times clearly now thinks he is expendable. His company has not been as powerful in the movie industry as it once was in the last few years. Always interesting to watch blue state elites in action.

    https://www.thewrap.com/media-enablers-harvey-weinstein-new-york-times/

  • krazen1211 October 9, 2017 at 5:00 pm

    Twitter is blocking a Marsha Blackburn video for being offensive to the abortion lobby.

    https://apnews.com/0d8828bd7d204b40af61172628d0a7f6

    • cer October 9, 2017 at 5:18 pm

      I saw that, and the conservative twitter universe are furious!


      Conservative first, Republican second!

    • district1 October 9, 2017 at 5:28 pm

      So Nazi politics, sexual harassment and violent threats are okay but an anti-abortion video isn’t. Twitter’s management is nuts.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

      • segmentation_fault October 9, 2017 at 5:32 pm

        And Trump making regular threats to nuke NK…


        En Marche!

        • Ryan_in_SEPA October 9, 2017 at 6:31 pm

          He has not directly threatened to nuke them.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

          • cer October 9, 2017 at 8:29 pm

            Talk about the left and Senator Corker as well overblowing some of Trump’s FP tweets.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

      • Greyhound October 9, 2017 at 7:29 pm

        To be fair, I think they’re objecting to having it run as a paid ad. Tweeting about how you stopped people from selling fetus parts is probably still okay, and I’d imagine they’d object to advertising “Nazi-fest 2017, get your tickets today!”

        Still, picking a fight with a tech company about how they’re oppressing her campaign message is hardly a bad start to her Senate run.


        R, 27, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

        • Left Coast Libertarian October 9, 2017 at 11:16 pm

          Blackburn is an anathema to the left. They can hold up Bob Corker and say, “Old white men deciding on women’s health.” They not only can’t say that with Blackburn but she blows holes into the idea that all women agree on “women’s issues.”

          I don’t believe that any party should choose someone based on anything other than competence and voting record, Republicans need more women to combat the narrative the GOP is anti-women.

          • californianintexas October 9, 2017 at 11:56 pm

            Even I don’t agree on all “women’s issues” like abortion funding and what passes as “equal pay”. I’m sure if a man who had a biology degree and not much prior work experience was hired as a lab tech, he would likely begin at $16/hour like I did. If he is paid more, it is much more because of highly desired skills and/or more work experience than discrimination.


            34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

    • segmentation_fault October 9, 2017 at 5:33 pm

      Maybe they’re hoping Trump will boycott Twitter in protest.


      En Marche!

    • TennesseeMike October 10, 2017 at 1:25 am

      The left believes in freedom of speech, until you use that speech in a way they don’t like.
      I’ll bet a video accusing the pro-life side of something would not be taken down no matter who many people thought it was “an inflammatory statement that is likely to evoke a strong negative reaction”. By that standard no political ad should ever be allowed on twitter. Pure hypocrisy.


      TN-2 District. A Social and Fiscal Conservative Republican

    • w920us October 9, 2017 at 7:28 pm

      Wait, Saccone & Christiana we’re both still in the Senate race even with Barletta announcing?


      R, South Philly, 47, Gay, WFU Alum
      #TrumpVoter #NeverHillary

      • Ryan_in_SEPA October 9, 2017 at 10:23 pm

        They were hanging on for some reason.


        31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian, Giant Meteor 2020 - Just End It Already!

  • StatenIslandTest October 9, 2017 at 9:29 pm

    Of course this appeals to my worldview:

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/09/democrats-mcgovern-1972-trump-nixon-2020-215687?lo=ap_e1


    32, Jersey City

  • The Zenome Project October 10, 2017 at 1:26 am

    Officially announced on Breitbart: Josh Hawley is running for McCaskill’s seat. I am quite openly an Austin Petersen guy, but IMO this clears the field, especially considering that Breitbart and Club for Growth are both going to endorse him.

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