Political Roundup for October 12th, 2017

Check back at 3p ET this afternoon for our preview of this weekend’s Louisiana Primaries.

President

Murphy: Alas, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) will go on raising money off gun control and not run for President. Of course this early is like the beginning of a spy movie where you have to trust nobody because the premise sets up people going back on their word.

Senate

CA-Sen: Billionaire environmentalist financier Tom Steyer (D) is looking at a challenge of Sen. Diane Feinstein from the left. California’s top-two primary opens the door to these kind of intra-party challenges destined to take place among a general election electorate. Meanwhile, far-left Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA-13) has declined to run for Senate against Dianne Feinstein, an institution in California politics, despite the urging of fellow Rep. Rho Khanna. State Sen. Kevin de Leon (D) also looks like a no at a campaign against Feinstein from the left. Feinstein has already racked up endorsements from a wide range of Democratic officials since announcing her reelection on Monday, including LA Mayor Eric Garcetti and Sen. Kamala Harris.

AL-Sen: Roy Moore (R) previously said he drew no salary from his work with his charity “The Foundation for Moral Law;” however, he collected over $1 million from the organization over five years. Incredibly, when the organization couldn’t afford the salary they gave him a stake in a historic building they own. The organization also had two of his children on the payroll at one point. Moore faces former US Attorney Doug Jones (D) in this special election.

NJ-Sen: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) may yet squirm out of his dicey legal situation.

Governor

MI-Gov: State Sen. Pat Colbeck (R) has been stripped of all his committee assignments since launching a gubernatorial bid. Apparently the harsh move was in response to Colbeck appearing at a fundraiser in Senate Majority Leader Arian Meekhof’s district without notifying the rival politician. Seems like a minor faux pas compared to the severity of the response. Colbeck is running to the right in this race and will likely be overshadowed in the Republican primary by Attorney General Bill Schuette and the possible bid of Lieutenant Gov. Brian Calley.

TN-Gov: After the House passed her budget bill, Rep. Diane Black (R) can take a victory lap and focus on her gubernatorial bid in this open seat. She is holding onto her committee chairmanship as budget negotiations continue with the Senate.

House

PA-13: Rep. Brendan Boyle (D) suddenly became many Republicans’ favorite congressman when he recently opined on the sport of soccer. “Run around for 90 minutes.
Flop when barely touched. Score 1 goal at most. Do I got it?,” Boyle tweeted, adding a winky face before he concluded the diatribe.

MN-8: Rep. Rick Nolan (DFL) is on the receiving end of a primary challenge from FBI counterterrorism analyst Leah Phifer. Phifer doesn’t sound overtly liberal on a lot of issues, but she is on one key issue in the 8th: the Polymet mining project. Nolan is liberal, but even he is not brazen enough to vote that far against his district. Phifer’s take on this issue could drive a nice wedge in the primary, and the race already has Green Skip Sandman returning for a repeat third party campaign to split those votes in the general. St Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber (R) is running on the Republican side in this swingy, Lean D seat. More from Aaron Brown.

NH-1: John DiStaso analyzes the newly open swing seat here, where real political junkies were starved of another Guinta v Shea-Porter matchup. Democrats interested in the seat include: former Somersworth mayor and former Strafford County attorney Lincoln Soldati and Rochester City Attorney Terence O’Rourke, Executive Councilor Chris Pappas (D), and State Reps. Mark McKenzie (D) and Mindi Messmer (D).

NH-2: State Rep. Steve Negron (R) has picked up some legislative endorsements out of Nashua, which makes it sound like the outcome of his “exploring” this race is pretty likely.

State and Local

MI-Leg: Former State Rep. and felon Brian Banks (D)just resigned his seat last February over his latest charges, so naturally he is now…. running for a promotion to State Senate? Some politicians have some grand audacity.

TX-leg: A few updates.

  • HD-128: State Rep. Briscoe Cain received a boost to his reelection when Black Lives Matter shut down a speech of his at Texas Southern University, giving the conservative facing a Republican primary challenge from Baytown City Councilman Terry Sain a nice bogeyman to campaign against.
  • SD-13: State Sen. Borris Miles(D) survived an armed robbery last night.
  • HD-6: House leadership may have found a candidate to take on Freedom Caucus member Matt Schaefer in former State Rep. Ted Kamel of Tyler.

NH-Leg: Gov. Sununu (R) plans to nominate Speaker Shawn Jasper (R) to be the Commissioner of Agriculture, leaving a gaping hole for House leadership. Jasper would resign once confirmed for the post. Remember, Jasper has dueled a conservative insurgency since usurping his present post, so the move is sure to create a competitive race for a replacement.

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106 Comments

  • andrew_1918 October 12, 2017 at 7:50 am

    “Today at the WH: Pres Trump signs Exec Order to permit out of state purchases of health insurance. Says it’ll expand access & lower costs”
    https://twitter.com/markknoller/status/918439732111118337

    • rdelbov October 12, 2017 at 10:27 am

      The order is fairly wide ranging and hard to say it in a tweet or even an RRH post. IMO it is a very positive move. It undoes some of the harm of Obamacare without repealing. It will allow people to buy policies that are non-compliant with Obamacare regulations and since Trump has already waived the penalties for not buying insurance it is a good 1st step to sanity in the health care market.

      • Boehnerwasright October 12, 2017 at 11:09 am

        Hard to call is a very positive move if you mostly switch around winner and loosers and fix none of the underlying problems in the american healthcare system.
        Yes you will expand access and lower cost but overwhelmingly for young and healthy people. If these people are able to switch to cheaper, less regulated plans which are able to discriminate for pre-existing conditions the risk pool for the ACA compliant gets worse.Worse risk pool means of course higher premiums(and the gov. paying more for subsidies) and less insurers in the ACA market place.

        This feels like more tinkering with a broken system. At this point going full free market with way less regulation and less protections or moving towards a heavy regulated healthcare system like swiss seem both better then the expensive and underperforming system now in place.

        • californianintexas October 12, 2017 at 1:44 pm

          I agree wholeheartedly with the last sentence.


          34, Female, Libertarian, UT-02 (hometown CA-31), theelectionsgeek.com

          • rdelbov October 12, 2017 at 4:59 pm

            A liquid will always seek its own level. Insurance rates in an open market will rise or fall to its own level. Millions will opt out of Obamacare but either not buying it or like myself will buy a cheaper non-conforming policy. I will give up a lot of coverage that we don’t need and we don’t a lot of pre-existing conditions so we will likely see a savings if we go that route. We can do that now, actually, without Trump’s order but it will be easier on.

            Big corporations will likely see large rate increases if they stay in the Obamacare world and likely they seek waivers to save costs. We saw that with the McDonalds or College waivers in 2013. Basically HHS will grant anyone any waiver they want. Courts have ruled that HHS more or less is the referee-ie rule maker-in all Obamacare issues.

            So the Trump move will be great for millions-Trump already spared millions penalties for not buying insurance-and will lead to an inevitable downward spiral for Obamacare.

      • Jon October 12, 2017 at 6:24 pm

        I’m not sure exactly how it is legal to do this via executive order (instead of by Congress) though …
        I expect a lawsuit by those opposed to quickly follow (similar to the lawsuits filed by Obama’s executive order in relation to obamacare.)


        45, M, MO-02

        • rdelbov October 12, 2017 at 8:22 pm

          Obama’s HHS waived deadlines and rules without any lawsuits.

          I guess Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren could sue the insurance companies that would be offering cheaper policies to million of middle class voters. I can see the DNC getting involved in that as well. There is ample precedent for Trump’s move as it parallels Obama moves on small group plans as college/graduate school plans. The Republicans did not realize how critical the role of HHS secretary was as that department can basically waiver out huge segments of the insurance market .

          Trump basically followed the Obama precedent in waiving penalties for not buying insurance. He instructed the IRS not to levy any penalties and to eliminate the need to file form 1095 on one’s tax return. Obama’s HHS set rules for employers that had less then 50 full time employees and waived employer penalties for 2013/2014/2015/2016. Democrats did not file lawsuits to force the IRS to collect fines and penalties on small business people in 2014–I am thinking that is not a vote winner in 2018?

          • Jon October 13, 2017 at 7:28 pm

            I’m in the awkward position of on the merits liking the changes but having grave concerns with the procedure in which it was done.
            But I’d feel like a hypocrite if I praised Trump for doing something by executive order after having complained so loudly at the many of Obama’s.


            45, M, MO-02

  • bluewahoo October 12, 2017 at 8:36 am

    VA-Gov: Trump to stump for Gillespie? I’d be surprised if this is true.

    https://twitter.com/LVozzella/status/918445343683031040

    • Boehnerwasright October 12, 2017 at 8:47 am

      The people you seeing right now kneeling in Virgina are not NFL players but Northram and his team praying for Trump to hold a rally for Gillespie. Trump should be around 36-37% in Virgina? Seems like an easy way to nationalize the race and get democratic turnout up.
      This will likely get Gillespie the trumpian rural areas, but that are simply not that many votes.

      • pstchrisp October 12, 2017 at 10:02 am

        Doubtful it’s that cut-and-dry. Low turnout off-off year electorates can become engaged in many different ways. If you are down 5 and need a two-minute offense (not quite a hail mary yet, but close), maybe you roll the dice. We’ll see.

      • fzw October 12, 2017 at 10:07 am

        In the crescent from NOVA to Virginia Beach it might turn off a few people, but that’s probably why he’d be doing it so late in the game–so that it flies under the radar. Obama made a robocall on JBE’s behalf like the day before the Louisiana gubernatorial runoff, and it probably ended up being a net positive for him because it got black voters to the polls and news of it probably didn’t reach enough white voters until it was too late to matter.


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • segmentation_fault October 12, 2017 at 10:59 am

          Obama robocall is very controlled and low profile compared to a Trump speech though. Usually when he does a campaign rally for a candidate he starts some new culture war.


          core dumped

          • shamlet October 12, 2017 at 11:03 am

            Yeah. Bringing Trump in himself is a big mistake. A Pence rally in Wytheville would have 75% of the effect with 99% less risk.


            R, MD-7. Process is more important than outcome.

            • Boehnerwasright October 12, 2017 at 11:22 am

              I agree, same reason we see Biden but not Obama in quite a few southern states. Both Pence and Biden get you at least some of the base activation without also riling up the other side like Obama/trump would do in many states.

              • fzw October 12, 2017 at 11:39 am

                That’s true the more I think of it. Though I’d imagine the only places where an Obama rally is a negative these days is in Appalachia/Deep South outside of VA, NC, GA, FL and in most of the Great Plains states. But targeted Obama robocalls could still be effective though in tough terrain, just like targeted Trump robocalls could help in certain places in blue states.


                Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                R-leaning Indy.

  • Mayor Perk October 12, 2017 at 9:12 am

    MD-Gov: Maya Rockeymoore Cummings (D), wife of Rep. Elijah Cummings (D), announced her bid. A little surprising.

    http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2017/10/12/maya-rockeymoore-cummings-joins-race/


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

  • Left Coast Libertarian October 12, 2017 at 9:49 am

    Tom Steyer thinks he’s a hero to the left because he’s leading “the good fight.” If he runs he’ll find out how much the left hates rich people. He was a hedge fund manager. He probably paid a lower tax rate with carried interest. That’ll go over well.

    • Mayor Perk October 12, 2017 at 10:03 am

      Plus he’s a white straight male from a privileged background to begin with.


      30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

      • pstchrisp October 12, 2017 at 10:53 am

        The Left in NJ is fine with Goldman Sachs Exec #2 Phil Murphy. He’s rich, sure, but he gave them a lot of money. That’s all that matters. Make huge donations to all the Grassroots Ultra-Left Orgs and watch how they flock to the hedge funds!

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 12, 2017 at 11:28 am

          Pritzer is way worse than Murphy. Murphy is a stinking rich banker. Pritzer is actually an outright juggernaut of corruption. And he is much richer. He’d be devastatingly weak if Rauner weren’t such a bad candidate too.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • rdw72777 October 12, 2017 at 11:48 am

            Someone should make a movie about the Pritzker family. It’d be like Citizen Kane crossed with something like real Housewives…

    • Izengabe October 12, 2017 at 12:13 pm

      You guys are missing the bigger picture. Steyer’s entry into the race would open up a lane for Caitlyn Jenner to run! The Tom Steyer vs Caityln Jenner November runnoff is going to be epic!


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

  • Midnight901 October 12, 2017 at 10:42 am

    Steyer was the guy who said Trump had committed treason against the United States by pulling out of the Paris agreement, so if he won there’d actually be someone to the left of Bernie Sanders. Could open the door to immense polarization in the Democratic Party. In that sense it’s the most important race of 2018.

  • rdw72777 October 12, 2017 at 11:23 am

    Ugh Brendan Boyle…why perpetuate the meme of “snowflake”. So dumb…so very dumb.

    • Son_of_the_South October 12, 2017 at 12:12 pm

      Please explain.


      24, R, TN-09
      Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

      • rdw72777 October 12, 2017 at 12:47 pm

        Explain what. Calling people who disagree with him snowflakes. Like what part of that is advancing civil discourse? Then does the whole not popular in America rant like that’s not similar to say I don’t know addressing climate change or socialized medicine. Dumb dumb dumb.

        • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 12, 2017 at 12:51 pm

          Calling for a politician to be removed from office because they don’t like the same sports does sound to me like the kind of snowflakey cringe that dominates millennial politics.


          I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

          • rdw72777 October 12, 2017 at 12:58 pm

            He’s a sitting Congressman, he should maybe just shrug it off instead of trying to instigate.

  • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 12, 2017 at 11:32 am

    As pathetic as diving is, part of the reason why America is great is that we actually scorn it and our players do it a lot less than the Europeans.


    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • rdw72777 October 12, 2017 at 11:50 am

      Don’t worry diving is being taught more and more so we’ll “go European” on that in about 20 years. But your point is taken; it’s not like wide receivers in the NFL don’t try and call for a flag every play anyways…it’s literally the same thing.

      • Izengabe October 12, 2017 at 12:14 pm

        This is nonsense. Wide receivers don’t fall down to fake pass interference penalties. The only football players that do something like this are punters and everyone laughs at them for it.


        Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

        • Republican Michigander October 12, 2017 at 12:37 pm

          “”””The only football players that do something like this are punters and everyone laughs at them for it.”””

          And UM Quarterbacks….
          https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/10/07/michigan-wolverines-michigan-state-spartans-john-okorn-flop-video


          MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

        • rdw72777 October 12, 2017 at 12:50 pm

          It is not nonsense, they call for a flag every play there’s any contact. Someone falling down in soccer to get a call is actually dumber because if they don’t get it the other team has a significant advantage; at least wide receivers do it after the play is over.

          • Left Coast Libertarian October 12, 2017 at 1:30 pm

            There’s nothing wrong with calling for a flag after the play. The equivalent to the soccer flop would be a wide receiver falling down after a small amount of contact during a play to get the call. Any player who’d do that would be benched because you don’t take yourself out of the play before it’s over. You can still catch it.

            • rdw72777 October 12, 2017 at 1:45 pm

              You can’t do an apples for apples because soccer has no stoppages. In soccer it’s worth the calculated risk, in football it isn’t.

              I’d also argue that wide receivers try to make the play for selfish reasons moreso than playing the right way; they get paid for yards/catches/touchdowns and most have egos the size of Asia. As such getting pass interference doesn’t help them personally. Very few soccer players actually get paid directly for scoring goals…

  • Republican Michigander October 12, 2017 at 11:39 am

    “””””MI-Gov: State Sen. Pat Colbeck (R) has been stripped of all his committee assignments since launching a gubernatorial bid. Apparently the harsh move was in response to Colbeck appearing at a fundraiser in Senate Majority Leader Arian Meekhof’s district without notifying the rival politician. Seems like a minor faux pas compared to the severity of the response. Colbeck is running to the right in this race and will likely be overshadowed in the Republican primary by Attorney General Bill Schuette and the possible bid of Lieutenant Gov. Brian Calley.”””””

    In Michigan, protocol among state reps/state senators is to let the district rep know if you are going to their district. Sometimes there is agreements with reps from the county in places like my county which has two reps and both of them are often at the same event. Luckily, Reps Lana Theis and Hank Vaupel work well together. When an out-county state rep went to my district to speak, he let Lana Theis know because that’s protocol. Reps take that very seriously.

    Colbeck was put in a bad spot. Meekhof and Colbeck had their issues for a long time. Colbeck wasn’t going to give Meekhof his campaign plan. Meekhof was obviously offended by him showing up on his turf. Colbeck also has a committed following among the tea party. Meekhof also had eyes on the governorship himself, although he decided not to run. I will also say that I wouldn’t be shocked if the “Meekhof” wing of the party goes out to recruit another candidate for governor since I think he wouldn’t be a fan of any of the ones so far in the race.

    As far as my opinion Mr. Meekhof goes, I’ll just say this. While I have issues with term limits getting rid of good people like my St. Senator Joe Hune, I am happy that they get rid of people like Mr. Meekhof as well. I’ll leave it at that.


    MI-08 - Michigan is a red state again. We need a 50 state strategy and an 83 county strategy.

    • Wahoowa October 12, 2017 at 11:48 am

      This is not just a Michigan thing. It’s the SOP in many states. And in the US Congress. But the response here is unusually harsh.


      CO-7

  • andrew_1918 October 12, 2017 at 11:49 am

    New PPP (D) polls for House Majority (lol) PAC (10/9):
    AZ-02 (HRC +5, R+14): Trump Job Approval- 42/54, McSally Job Approval- 45/47, H2H with Ann Kirkpatrick: 44/44 (Tie)
    VA-10 (HRC +10. R+6): Trump Job Approval- 37/59, Comstock Job Approval- 32/52, H2H with generic Dem: 39/48 (D+9)
    CO-06 (HRC +9. R+8): Trump Job Approval- 41/55, Coffman Job Approval- 36/49, H2H with Jason Crow: 43/36 (R+7)
    CA-49 (HRC +7.5, R+0.6): Trump Job Approval- 40/57, Issa Job Approval- 41/48, H2H with generic Dem: 41/51 (D+10)
    WA-08 (HRC +3. R+20): Trump Job Approval- 40/55, Dino Rossi vs generic Dem: 42/43 (D+1)
    PA-06 (HRC +0.6, R+15): Trump Job Approval- 43/52, Costello Job Approval- 34/33, H2H with Houlahan: 43/37 (R+6)
    MN-02 (DJT+2, R+2): Trump Job Approval- 44/50, Lewis Job Approval- 39/40, H2H with Angie Craig : 43/42 (R+1)
    IA-01 (DJT +4, R+8): Trump Job Approval- 45/50, Blum Job Approval- 33/51, H2H with Finkenauer: 40/42 (D+2)
    IA-03 (DJT +4, R+13): Trump Job Approval- 43/53, Young Job Approval- 37/47, H2H with generic Dem: 44/43 (R+1)
    PA-15 (DJT +8, R+20): Trump Job Approval- 47/47, Generic R vs generic Dem: 43/44 (D+1)
    ME-02 (DJT +10, R+10): Trump Job Approval- 46/49, Poliquin Job Approval- 42/50, Poliquin with generic Dem: 44/45 (D+1)
    MI-11 (DJT +5. R+13): Trump Job Approval- 44/50, Generic R vs generic Dem: 42/42 (Tie)

    https://twitter.com/AliLapp/status/918482737354432514

    • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 12, 2017 at 11:53 am

      Those are actually pretty discouraging results for Democrats. They seem to be tied in almost all of these seats, even when they get a “generic Democrat” (which always does better than the named people), when they really need to sweep these seats in order to take the House.


      I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

      • fzw October 12, 2017 at 11:59 am

        It’s not very realistic to see polls of Democratic challengers destroying GOP incumbents this far out. I remember polls showing the Democratic incumbents in places like Tennessee and Virginia in 2009/2010 with small (or even double digit) leads like this with Obama polling about as bad in those districts as Trump is in these. All the undecideds (who were mostly people who disapproved of the incumbent President) broke for the challenger then.


        Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
        R-leaning Indy.

        • roguemapper October 12, 2017 at 12:18 pm

          Or they just didn’t vote at all, along with a decisive number of Ds. Election waves are due to turnout differentials more than anything else. No wave that I can recall was apparent in polls this early.


          Dem NC-11

          • Left Coast Libertarian October 12, 2017 at 1:41 pm

            In October 2013, during the government shutdown, the Generic Congressional ballot swung heavily to Democrats. I have no idea how individual districts polled. The Generic Congressional ballot is somewhat similar to where it was in 2013. If actual district polling doesn’t reflect the national numbers there’s no point in doing district polling. If the Generic Congressional ballot does reflect where voters are right now, but the district numbers don’t, then Democrats should take the Generic Congressional number and stop polling.

            One thing about those numbers that stinks for Democrats is that Republicans lead by 2.4 points when a Democrat is named but Democrats lead by 3.0 when one isn’t.

            • rdelbov October 12, 2017 at 4:52 pm

              The 1st mention of a potential wave election for the Ds, at this site, on the Wednesday after Trump won.

              The Ds in DC power establishments and the D posters have been saying wave wave wave since then. Oh most say “what a potential wave” would look like. Yett whenever one of the Rs here suggest it might not be a wave in 2018 then we hear all the arguments as to why it looks like a wave.

              So here is my three cents. Does not look like a wave yet. Gillespie being as close as he in a state Hillary won does not shout wave–these house polls from the very liberal PPP does not shout wave.

              At least not yet–if economy tanks that is another story.

              • roguemapper October 12, 2017 at 7:45 pm

                That’s definitely incorrect. The first mention of a 2018 midterm wave was well before the 2016 Nov election, both in reference to a D wave in case the Donald won or (more often) in reference to an R wave in case HRC won. I’m surprised you don’t recall that since the latter would no doubt be your signature topic if HRC had won.


                Dem NC-11

                • fzw October 12, 2017 at 8:02 pm

                  I feel like you’re actually not that surprised though.


                  Currently MO-5. From MO-3.
                  R-leaning Indy.

    • rdw72777 October 12, 2017 at 11:54 am

      I guess I could buy AZ-02, CA-49 and WA-08 numbers.

      The rest are way to Dem-friendly; for my home state of PA I don’t see PA-06 or PA-15 all that competitive. If Comstock in VA-10 was really -20 disapproval…I don’t even know how to finish that sentence.

      • cer October 12, 2017 at 12:12 pm

        Partisan PPP = trash can….. NEXT! 🙂


        Conservative first, Republican second!

    • krazen1211 October 12, 2017 at 3:51 pm

      I wonder what the results are for races that are missing like FL-26.

      • pstchrisp October 12, 2017 at 3:57 pm

        It would be hard to fathom them not polling all of them, with the logical conclusion being they didn’t reveal the worse ones.

        • Ryan_in_SEPA October 12, 2017 at 4:33 pm

          Random deletion.


          31, PA-6, fiscally conservative communitarian

  • andrew_1918 October 12, 2017 at 12:25 pm

    AL-Sen (Cygnal/L2): Moore- 49, Jones- 41; Moore’s fav/unfav 53-39, Trump 58-38(!!!!)
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/918505744848351232

    • The Zenome Project October 12, 2017 at 1:00 pm

      Hmm, this poll would show that Moore has some room to grow voting support, but again, I’m highly skeptical of all polls. What’s more important is analyzing the culture in each state, and it certainly seems that though he has some crazy SoCon views, he’s the right kind of crazy for that particular state. As long as he stays (mostly) quiet and votes with the Paul/Cruz/Sasse/Lee wing of the party, IMO he will be a net gain for liberty.

    • Manhatlibertarian October 12, 2017 at 1:14 pm

      In line with two other recent polls that show Moore with a single digit lead, but not clear if the impact of the WaPo story that he earned a big salary from the “religious charity” he helped start while he initially denied that was the case had registered yet with voters polled. Don’t know how much of an impact that will have, but I would like to see polls taken after the story broke.

    • andyroo312 October 12, 2017 at 3:03 pm

      No way Jones can win with Moore’s fav/unfav that solid (unfortunately).


      MA-7

      • cer October 12, 2017 at 3:09 pm

        I don’t want the Democrat to win, but I would still love to see Mo Brooks or another Republican take a primary whack at him in 2018.


        Conservative first, Republican second!

        • The Zenome Project October 12, 2017 at 3:17 pm

          It’ll be 2020. Sessions had three years left in his Senate term, so Moore will serve a minimum of three. Moore will be 71 when his term starts, though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Moore makes room for Brooks when 2020 comes. I really like Mo and he seems quite principled, so I hope he gets his chance to serve as a senator.

          • cer October 12, 2017 at 3:27 pm

            oops, you are correct.


            Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Mayor Perk October 12, 2017 at 12:40 pm

    OH-Gov/Cordray: Interesting take on why Cordray’s possible gubernatorial candidacy may be a pump fake.

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/how-a-washington-bureaucrat-tricked-president-trump/article/2010040


    30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

    • Izengabe October 12, 2017 at 12:56 pm

      Trump should have fired Cordray on day 1.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

      • Boehnerwasright October 12, 2017 at 1:22 pm

        Seems like a lot of risk of getting the decision overturned by the courts for little gains as Cordray is leaving soon.

        • Mayor Perk October 12, 2017 at 1:25 pm

          I’d fire him now for Hatch Act violations. That’s for cause.


          30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

          • Boehnerwasright October 12, 2017 at 1:33 pm

            Very doubtful a no even clear Hatch Act violation would be enough to count as cause. And trying to fire Cordray for that brings up a lot of awkward questions why someone like Nikki Haley and others (she retweeted an trump endorsemant from her twitter account which was linked to her job as UN ambassador) who got reprimanded for violating the Hatch Act still have a job.

            • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 12, 2017 at 1:51 pm

              The real solution is to also fire Nikki Haley, who should have been fired on Day 2.


              I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

            • Mayor Perk October 12, 2017 at 2:18 pm

              There are different degrees of violating the Hatch Act. Haley retweeted an endorsement from her personal twitter account. Cordray was forwarding on emails about his own possible partisan political activity through his official CFPB email.

              On another note, I don’t think he’s the juggernaut a lot of Dems think he is. He has a very checkered statewide history.


              30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

              • rdw72777 October 12, 2017 at 4:32 pm

                No Dem thinks Cordray is a juggernaut. Ohio is a lost cause but you have to run someone and he and Tim Ryan are all there is and neither has any chance of winning statewide.

        • krazen1211 October 12, 2017 at 6:17 pm

          Didn’t the DC Circuit rule that Cordray can be fired with or without cause by the President? Rightfully so, as we are supposed to have elections in this country and not some singular unelected bureaucrat ruling over us.

          Just wait until Ohio’s filing deadline then can him.

  • Manhatlibertarian October 12, 2017 at 1:00 pm

    Thursday NY Tidbits:

    Tim Gomes, the owner of a Holtsville lighting and electrical supply business, became the first Dem to announce against Long Island GOP Congressman Peter King. Not exactly an A list candidate.

    In the 22nd CD, GOP Congresswoman Claudia Tenney’s Dem challenger, Assemblyman Tony Brindisi, has been competitive in raising $, with about $400,000 COH at the end of September. Tenney’s latest COH is not available yet, but at the end of July she had $449,000 COH.

    Dem Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance Jr (son of the former US SOS) has come across a lot of criticism for dismissing cases against the oldest Trump children and Dem donor Harvey Weinstein, while accepting campaign cash from lawyers linked to these would be defendants. But he only has a write-in opponent in November and while Cuomo could remove him as DA, that does not appear likely.

    Carrying out a deal reached in the last legislative session, the SUNY Board of Trustees has made it easier for charter schools to certify instructors for their schools, much to the annoyance of the United Federation of Teachers, which represents public school teachers.

    Ben Walsh, who is running as the nominee of three small parties for Syracuse Mayor, and who came in a relatively close second to the Dem nominee in a recent Spectrum/Siena poll, has an interesting background. His grandfather, Bill Walsh, was GOP mayor of Syracuse, and his father Jim Walsh, was GOP Congressman from a CD that included the city. Although he unsuccessfully sought the backing of the Syracuse GOP party organization for mayor, he considers himself to be an independent. He thinks Trump hurts the GOP brand and he served in the administration of Syracuse Dem mayor Stephanie Miner. Many of his campaign staff are Dems and three local Dem officials have endorsed him, two of whom are African-American. Although he is close to downtown real estate developers, who have given his campaign a lot of $, he also favors the $15 an hour minimum wage.

    all at:

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com

  • Left Coast Libertarian October 12, 2017 at 2:03 pm

    IMO Democrats are handling the Weinstein scandal wrong and it could blow up in their faces. Those few that have said anything have expressed their shock and dismay. I’m sure most congressional Democrats have never met Weinstein. Weinstein only hung out with important people and most Democrats probably weren’t important enough for him. But there are some who spent quite a bit of time with Weinstein, who he worked with in fundraising, and organized events.

    Weinstein’s escapades were, apparently, an open secret. Anyone who spent time with him must’ve heard the rumors. If they just express shock and some email later comes out about Weinstein it could come back to haunt them.

    • Mayor Perk October 12, 2017 at 3:18 pm

      I highly doubt this, unfortunately. Weinstein’s status as a Dem donor is hardly ever reported. And in places like Hollywood, liberal politics are used as a cover for personal behavior. Weinstein even tried this with his half-baked apology when he said he was going to channel his energies toward fighting the NRA.

      Jimmy Kimmel was vulgar and openly sexist during his days on The Man Show. But all is forgiven when you defend Obamacare!


      30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

      • Left Coast Libertarian October 12, 2017 at 4:17 pm

        Actually I’m surprisingly seeing Weinstein’s status as a Dem donor more than I expected. It’s not relevant to the story unless you’re a political writer. Where it could become a political story is 1) incriminating evidence surfaces that (fill in Democrat’s name) knew about Harvey and did nothing. 2) in individual races if Harvey was involved with the Democrat. I have to think Republicans are testing ads right now of any Democrat who co-hosted an event with Weinstein. Or maybe there’s a photo of (fill in Democrat’s name) and Weinstein at a women’s rally. How about giving Weinstein a “man of the year” award?

        This story might not end up involving any Democrats but any Democrat who had a relationship with Weinstein should do what they can to lessen their exposure.

  • andrew_1918 October 12, 2017 at 2:53 pm

    VA-Gov (Victoria Research (D), 9/24-28, LV): Northam- 46, Gillespie- 44, Hyra- 3
    https://twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

    • The Zenome Project October 12, 2017 at 3:14 pm

      Though I’m not a fan and am worried that he’ll be too GOPe as a governor, Gillespie is the best possible candidate fit for VA imaginable. I’m still going to say Tilt D, but an upset is within reach. I would, however, recommend that anyone with conservative bumper stickers to probably stay away from NoVa if Gillespie does in fact upset Northam, since you probably would rather not get beaten up by AntiFa.

      • jncca October 12, 2017 at 3:31 pm

        Yes, Virginia is full of people who go around beating up Republicans regularly for having bumper stickers in a 60-40 area.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • bluewahoo October 12, 2017 at 3:54 pm

          Those government bureaucrats and defense contractors can be vicious. Have you not heard the horror stories of the Fairfax May Day parades?

    • Mayor Perk October 12, 2017 at 3:30 pm

      I’m skeptical. It’s a poll from a bold progressive cat lady. Probably meant to GOTV.


      30. OH-12. Establishment Republican.

      • Manhatlibertarian October 12, 2017 at 5:01 pm

        Never heard of this pollster so don’t know what kind of record (if any) the pollster has. This poll has 631 LV and it is interesting in that it shows a virtual tie with Northam while Trump is down 20 points on negative/positive while McAuliffe is up 11 points on positive/negative. So it doesn’t appear to be a GOP leaning poll sample. So maybe there is still some hope for Gillespie, but even in this poll Northam is slightly ahead and Gillespie still has not taken a lead in any recent poll. So he still has a little work to do if he wants the lead.

    • FiveAngels October 12, 2017 at 4:52 pm

      I have a very hard time getting into this VA-Gov race. It seems to me like Northam and Gillespie represent the most boring segment of their respective parties imaginable…

      • The Zenome Project October 12, 2017 at 5:06 pm

        I think that Gillespie’s boring on purpose, though, because NoVa is full of David Brooks-level “House Republicans” (Sources: numerous R-leaning family members in DC). It is an interesting race because Gillespie is way closer to winning than what PolSci pundits would have you believe because #resist.

  • edtorres04 October 12, 2017 at 2:53 pm

    Susan Collins: she will make sure announcment tomorrow morning at the Samoset Resort in Rockport.

  • jncca October 12, 2017 at 3:40 pm

    CA-Sen: De Leon IN.

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/12/politics/kevin-de-leon-dianne-feinstein-tom-steyer-california-democratic-primary/index.html

    Lean Feinstein right now, I’d say.


    24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

    • Izengabe October 12, 2017 at 3:56 pm

      Paging Caitlyn Jenner…….


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    • Left Coast Libertarian October 12, 2017 at 5:07 pm

      Not officially in. De Leon is unknown statewide but is likely better known with progressive activists. He needs to raise his profile with progressives who don’t visit dailykos ten times a day. Gavin Newsom is running far to the left but Newsom isn’t running in a race with DiFi and he has a strong statewide profile. Newsom is getting votes from any left leaning voter that knows him. He might have a chance to topple DiFi in a Democratic primary even with being currently unknown.

      But there’s no Democratic primary. Running far to the left doesn’t help with NPPs or Republicans. And DiFi is popular with the former and respected by some of the latter. In order to make top two De Leon actually needs Republicans to vote for Feinstein in the primary. He needs the Republican vote to be spread out enough that no Republican gets more than 15%. Then he could make top two. If Republicans coalesce behind one candidate, or possibly two, he is a lot less likely to make top two.

      Of course the general election is tricky running to Feinstein’s left, especially if Feinstein already cemented Republican votes in the primary. He needs them to leave the ballot blank in November since he’s unlikely to get many of their votes.

      • segmentation_fault October 12, 2017 at 6:36 pm

        De Leon endorsed Hillary in the 2016 primary though. Is he going to be satisfactory to the Bernie bots? It looks like Ro Khanna is thinking about running, but if not him someone else from the Bernie wing probably will. So it looks like the anti-Feinstein Dem vote will be split and the most likely scenario may be Feinstein vs. R in the general.


        core dumped

        • The Zenome Project October 12, 2017 at 6:50 pm

          I think that the Bernie Bros probably want Khanna or Sanberg, who are both full-blown Justice Dems. If De Leon, Steyer, and Sanberg all hop on board to primary DiFi, it may be Caitlyn Jenner and another R’s opportunity to sneak in and cause a two-R top two. Wouldn’t it be the most hilarious outcome in the world if an R had a Senate seat for 6 years (miracle scenario)?

          • Greyhound October 12, 2017 at 7:38 pm

            There is no chance whatsoever that Feinstein is not in the top-2. It’s actually an open question whether or not she’ll hit 50% in the first round, even with a serious D primary challenger.


            R, 26, CA-18. Anti-Anti-Trump

            • The Zenome Project October 12, 2017 at 7:59 pm

              That was a joke LMAO. I was thinking of a peak #resistfail at the top of my head.

            • segmentation_fault October 12, 2017 at 8:01 pm

              I think she could be in the 35-40% range with stronger Dem opposition this year, but no way in hell would she be down at 15% and let two Republicans slip through.


              core dumped

            • Left Coast Libertarian October 12, 2017 at 10:35 pm

              Feinstein didn’t get 50% in 2012 when her Democratic opponents were names on a ballot. There’s no way she gets 50% with a serious Democratic challenger. Feinstein certainly finishes first by a wide margin, but I doubt she can clear 40%.

          • VastBlightKingConspiracy October 12, 2017 at 9:40 pm

            Also, Steyer is almost certainly out if DeLeon is in. They are after all, friends of some sort. In addition, DeLeon is a better face to challenge Feinstein than old rich white hedge fund guy. Steyer probably knows that and probably makes sure DeLeon gets the $$$ he needs.

            I actually don’t think DeLeon has much of a problem getting into the top two. I could see something like a 35-25 race in the primary. I think Feinstein still wins, but like by 58-42 or something like that.


            I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

    • andyroo312 October 12, 2017 at 7:34 pm

      I think Feinstein will prevail with relative ease. If necessary, she’ll get Obama, Clinton and so on to stump for her.


      MA-7

      • jncca October 12, 2017 at 8:23 pm

        Yeah, she won’t get boxed out of the general, and she can lose Democrats by a small margin and still win the election against De Leon or Steyer.

        Lean Feinstein remains my rating because she’s old and she may prove to be a weak campaigner by this point in her life, but it’s closer to Likely than to Tossup.


        24, CA-6. Part Obama, Part May, Part Christian Democrat.

        • district1 October 12, 2017 at 8:52 pm

          A whole lot of cold water is going to be thrown on this when she’s shown winning the first poll something like 40-10 over her nearest opponent, with a Republican having the clearest path to the second position in the top-two.

          No one knows who her potential opponents are and any left-leaning alternative will need to spend a staggering amount of money just to make it to the general election.


          ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

          • Manhatlibertarian October 12, 2017 at 9:25 pm

            Yeah I think Feinstein in the end will easily be re-elected. The SJW Dems may put up a fight but in the end she will prevail.

            • district1 October 13, 2017 at 12:27 am

              If I were pitching Tom Steyer I would tell him that you have couple different obvious, dramatically expensive paths to the top two. But those paths narrow considerably once it comes to assembling a winning coalition in November.

              The most promising is probably a Rick Snyder/Hickenlooper style “One Tough Nerd” approach where he doubles down on his lack of charisma and tries to pick off people from all parts of the political spectrum. The fact that he may refuse to convey that kind of message despite its obvious fit to his personality would be evidence that he’s not cut out to be a politician.


              ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

              • Son_of_the_South October 13, 2017 at 12:56 am

                Well yeah, and as a political consultant myself that’s the route I’d suggest. However, you’re right that he’s unlikely to take the advice.


                24, R, TN-09
                Classical liberals are a minority. Fusionism is the answer.

        • rdelbov October 12, 2017 at 10:06 pm

          It is all about TV and endorsements in CA now. Hey 2000 miles but even I know it is not a retail politics state. DiFi could stay in DC fighting Trump now til June and still get +45%.

          • HS October 13, 2017 at 12:39 am

            Feinstein’ s only worry is that she has an senior moment. Of course she is 83, so that is more possible than people think.

  • andrew_1918 October 12, 2017 at 6:41 pm

    GA-Gov (R): Cagle- 41, Kemp- 12, Hill- 4, Williams- 3, Tippins- 2
    Trump Job Approval- 86/12
    McLaughlin & Associates, 9/28-10/1

    This is the most boring poll ever
    https://cmgpremajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/ga-statewide-gop-cagle-10-23-17-executive-summary.pdf

    • district1 October 12, 2017 at 8:59 pm

      Georgia state government is the land of the backroom deal. No competitive elections allowed, except when Karen Handel decides to get involved.


      ex D flack (ex flack, not ex D)

  • Manhatlibertarian October 12, 2017 at 9:19 pm

    AG Jeff Sessions announced that NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans and Cook County, Ill. are sanctuary cities/counties after a review by his Department and are in violation of federal statute 8 USC 1373, as they are not honoring ICE federal detainers on illegal immigrants in city/county custody. As such they will lose certain federal law enforcement grants unless they come into compliance by October 27. The Justice Department did find that Milwaukee County and Connecticut are in compliance with the federal statute after an in depth review of their policies. It is likely this will go to federal court, as these other jurisdictions seem defiant.

    http://www.newsweek.com/justice-department-sanctuary-city-immigration-doj-jeff-sessions-new-york-683385

    • Jon October 13, 2017 at 7:33 pm

      I have a minor correction to make: It’s already in court; Cook County filed a suit awhile back preemptively seeking an injunction against this very action.


      45, M, MO-02

  • cer October 12, 2017 at 9:22 pm

    Democrat Radnor commissioners president Philip Ahr charged in child porn case.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/crime/radnor-township-commissioners-president-phil-ahr-charged-with-child-sexual-abuse-20171011.html


    Conservative first, Republican second!

  • Boehnerwasright October 13, 2017 at 2:05 am

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/12/trump-obamacare-subsidy-243736

    Trump plans to drop the appeal for the CSR-payments which will end these payments re-imbursing insurers for paying deductibles for low-income people. How this is a good idea I have no idea. According to the CBO(http://www.businessinsider.de/cbo-score-on-trump-ending-csr-cost-sharing-payments-2017-8?r=US&IR=T) this will lead to shortterm higher premiums(great for republicans running in 2017+2018) and longterm the gov. has to pay more in subsidies.

    Not only does the federal gov. has to pay more in subsidies you also raise premiums fpr people buying individual insurance on the market places without subsidies. I also can’t see how dropping this healthcare fight right in the middle of the push for a tax plan is helpful. And barring a bi-partisan law to fund these it will raise the chance of a messy budget fight with a potential shutdown.

    • Izengabe October 13, 2017 at 1:17 pm

      The subsides were illegal to begin with. They were not included in the Obamacare law and Congress never authorized it. They were subsides made by Executive dictate and that is not how our system is suppose to work. Regardless of the merits or lack there of of these subsidies stopping governing by executive order and the administrative state is the right thing to do.


      Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

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